National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for assessment model gcam

  1. Enhancement of Solar Energy Representation in the GCAM Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Volke, April C.; Delgado Arias, Sabrina

    2010-02-01

    The representation of solar technologies in a research version of the GCAM (formerly MiniCAM) integrated assessment model have been enhanced to add technologies, improve the underlying data, and improve the interaction with the rest of the model. We find that the largest potential impact from the inclusion of thermal Concentrating Solar Power plants, which supply a substantial portion of electric generation in sunny regions of the world. Drawing on NREL research, domestic Solar Hot Water technologies have also been added in the United States region where this technology competes with conventional electric and gas technologies. PV technologies are as implemented in the CCTP scenarios, drawing on NREL cost curves for the United States, extrapolated to other world regions using a spatial analysis of population and solar resources.

  2. US Renewable Futures in the GCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, S.J.; Mizrahi, A.H.; Karas, J.F.; Nathan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This report examines renewable energy deployment in the United States using a version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with a detailed representation of renewables; the GCAM-RE. Electricity generation was modeled in four generation segments and 12-subregions. This level of regional and sector detail allows a more explicit representation of renewable energy generation. Wind, solar thermal power, and central solar PV plants are implemented in explicit resource classes with new intermittency parameterizations appropriate for each technology. A scenario analysis examines a range of assumptions for technology characteristics, climate policy, and long distance transmission.

  3. US Renewable Futures in the GCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Mizrahi, Andrew H.; Karas, Joseph F.; Nathan, Mayda

    2011-10-06

    This project examines renewable energy deployment in the United States using a version of the GCAM integrated assessment model with detailed a representation of renewables, the GCAM-RE. Electricity generation was modeled in four generation segments and 12-subregions. This level of regional and sectoral detail allows a more explicit representation of renewable energy generation. Wind, solar thermal power, and central solar PV plants are implemented in explicit resource classes with new intermittency parameterizations appropriate for each technology. A scenario analysis examines a range of assumptions for technology characteristics, climate policy, and long-distance transmission. We find that renewable generation levels grow over the century in all scenarios. As expected, renewable generation increases with lower renewable technology costs, more stringent climate policy, and if alternative low-carbon technology are not available. The availability of long distance transmission lowers policy costs and changes the renewable generation mix.

  4. Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Edmonds, James A.

    2014-09-01

    We explore the impact of changes in agricultural productivity on global land use and terrestrial carbon using the new agriculture and land use modeling approach developed for Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. This approach models economic land use decisions with regional, physical, and technological specificity while maintaining economic and physical integration with the rest of the GCAM model. Physical land characteristics and quantities are tracked explicitly, and crop production practices are modeled discretely to facilitate coupling with physical models. Economic land allocation is modeled with non-linear functions in a market equilibrium rather than through a constrained optimization. In this paper, we explore three scenarios of future agriculture productivity in all regions of the globe over this century, ranging from a high growth to a zero growth level. The higher productivity growth scenario leads to lower crop prices, increased production of crops in developing nations, preservation of global forested lands and lower terrestrial carbon emissions. The scenario with no productivity improvement results in higher crop prices, an expansion of crop production in the developed world, loss of forested lands globally, and higher terrestrial carbon emissions.

  5. Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: Initial experiments using GCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2013-04-01

    Historically climate impacts research and climate mitigation research have been two separate and independent domains of inquiry. Climate mitigation research has investigated greenhouse gas emissions assuming that climate is unchanging. At the same time climate mitigation research has investigated the implications of climate change on the assumption that climate mitigation will proceed without affecting the degree of climate impacts or the ability of human and natural systems to adapt. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has largely been employed to study climate mitigation. Here we explore the development of capabilities to assess climate change impacts and adaptation within the GCAM model. These capabilities are being developed so as to be able to simultaneously reconcile the joint implications of climate change mitigation, impacts and adaptive potential. This is an important step forward in that it enables direct comparison between climate mitigation activities and climate impacts and the opportunity to understand interactions between the two.

  6. GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land Use: Data Sources and Methods

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Emanuel, William R.; Nathan, Mayda; Zhou, Yuyu

    2011-12-12

    This report presents the data processing methods used in the GCAM 3.0 agriculture and land use component, starting from all source data used, and detailing all calculations and assumptions made in generating the model inputs. The report starts with a brief introduction to modeling of agriculture and land use in GCAM 3.0, and then provides documentation of the data and methods used for generating the base-year dataset and future scenario parameters assumed in the model input files. Specifically, the report addresses primary commodity production, secondary (animal) commodity production, disposition of commodities, land allocation, land carbon contents, and land values.

  7. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Di Vittorio, Alan; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Truesdale, John E.; Craig, Anthony P.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Hurtt, George; Thornton, Peter E.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-11-27

    Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

  8. GCAM Bioenergy and Land Use Modeling

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Leon Clarke. 2013. "Can radiative forcing be limited to 2.6 Wm-2 without negative emissions from bioenergy and CO2 capture and storage?" Climatic Change. Special Issue on...

  9. Development of a Future Representative Concentration Pathway for Use in the IPCC 5th Assessment Earth System Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2010-12-29

    The representative concentration pathway to be delivered is a scenario of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important atmospheric species, along with land-use changes, derived from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The particular representative concentration pathway (RCP) that the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) has been responsible for is a not-to-exceed pathway that stabilizes at a radiative forcing of 4.5Wm-2 in the year 2100.

  10. Global Deployment of Geothermal Energy Using a New Characterization in GCAM 1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannam, Phil; Kyle, G. Page; Smith, Steven J.

    2009-09-01

    This report documents modeling of geothermal energy in GCAM 1.0 (formerly MiniCAM) from FY2008 to FY2009, from the inputs to the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program report (Clarke et al., 2008a) to the present representation, which will be used in future work. To demonstrate the newest representation, we describe the procedure and outcome of six model runs that illustrate the potential role of geothermal energy in the U.S. and global regions through different futures climate policy, development and deployment of engineered, or enhanced, geothermal systems (EGS), and availability of other low-cost, low-carbon electricity generation technologies such as nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

  11. On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Mao, Jiafu; Patel, Pralit L.; Shi, Xiaoying; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-01-01

    Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, posing a significant problem for earth system models (ESMs), which may incorporate static land-use change inputs but do not actively simulate policy or economic forces. One option to address this problem is a to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model. Here we have implemented and tested a coupling mechanism between the carbon cycles of an ESM (CLM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, examining the best proxy variables to share between the models, and quantifying our ability to distinguish climate- and land-use-driven flux changes. CLM’s net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to manipulate GCAM’s assumptions of long-term ecosystem steady state carbon, with short-term forest production strongly correlated with long-term biomass changes in climate-change model runs. By leveraging the fact that carbon-cycle effects of anthropogenic land-use change are short-term and spatially limited relative to widely distributed climate effects, we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. By allowing climate effects from a full earth system model to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work provides a foundation for linking these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and earth system processes.

  12. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model is a process-based agricultural systems model composed of simulation components for weather, hydrology, nutrient cycling, pesticide fate, tillage, crop growth, soil erosion, crop and soil management and economics. Staff at PNNL have been involved in the development of this model by integrating new sub-models for soil carbon dynamics and nitrogen cycling.

  13. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  14. ORISE: Dose modeling and assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Dose modeling and assessments The Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) offers dose modeling and assessment services to demonstrate that federal andor state...

  15. Explicitly Accounting for Protected Lands within the GCAM 3.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dooley, James J.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2012-05-01

    The Global Change Assessment Model Version 3.0 defines three different levels of “Protected Lands” within the agricultural and landuse component. These three different scenarios effectively cordon off 3.5% (5.0 million km2) of the Earth’s terrestrial lands in the de minimus Protected Land Scenario, 5.0% (7.20 million km2) in the Core Protected Land Scenario, and 8.2% (11.8 million km2) in the Expanded Protected Land Scenario. None of these scenarios represents the “right” level of Protected Lands for the planet today or tomorrow. Rather, the goal is to create a range of scenarios that can be used in modeling human responses to climate change and the impact those would have on managed and unmanaged terrestrial lands. These scenarios harness the wealth of information in the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre’s World Database on Protected Areas and its categories of explicit degrees of protection.

  16. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change – the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demands—both gross withdrawals and net consumptive use—are assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 – 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 – 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an important role for development and deployment of water conservation technologies and practices.

  17. Integrated Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Kim, Son H.; Wise, Marshall A.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2012-10-31

    This paper discusses the role of Integrated Assessment models (IAMs) in climate change research. IAMs are an interdisciplinary research platform, which constitutes a consistent scientific framework in which the large-scale interactions between human and natural Earth systems can be examined. In so doing, IAMs provide insights that would otherwise be unavailable from traditional single-discipline research. By providing a broader view of the issue, IAMs constitute an important tool for decision support. IAMs are also a home of human Earth system research and provide natural Earth system scientists information about the nature of human intervention in global biogeophysical and geochemical processes.

  18. Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Eom, Jiyong; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.; Kim, Son H.; Dirks, James A.; Jensen, Erik A.; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.; Schmidt, Laurel C.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2014-01-01

    As long-term socioeconomic transformation and energy service expansion show large spatial heterogeneity, advanced understanding of climate impact on building energy use at the sub-national level will offer useful insights into climate policy and regional energy system planning. In this study, we presented a detailed building energy model with a U.S. state-level representation, nested in the GCAM integrated assessment framework. We projected state-level building energy demand and its spatial pattern over the century, considering the impact of climate change based on the estimates of heating and cooling degree days derived from downscaled USGS CASCaDE temperature data. The result indicates that climate change has a large impact on heating and cooling building energy and fuel use at the state level, exhibiting large spatial heterogeneity across states (ranges from -10% to +10%). The sensitivity analysis reveals that the building energy demand is subject to multiple key factors, such as the magnitude of climate change, the choice of climate models, and the growth of population and GDP, and that their relative contributions vary greatly across the space. The scale impact in building energy use modeling highlights the importance of constructing a building energy model with the spatially-explicit representation of socioeconomics, energy system development, and climate change. These findings will help the climate-based policy decision and energy system, especially utility planning related to building sector at the U.S. state and regional level facing the potential climate change.

  19. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  20. Model Fire Protection Assessment Guide

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This Assessment guide covers the implementation of the DOE's responsibility of assuring that DOE and the DOE Contractors have established Fire Protection Programs that are at the level required for the area being assessed.

  1. Water demands for electricity generation in the U.S.: Modeling different scenarios for the water–energy nexus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Patel, Pralit L.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-05-01

    Water withdrawal for electricity generation in the United States accounts for approximately half the total freshwater withdrawal. With steadily growing electricity demands, a changing climate, and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states, meeting future energy and water demands poses a significant socio-economic challenge. Employing an integrated modeling approach that can capture the energy-water interactions at regional and national scales is essential to improve our understanding of the key drivers that govern those interactions and the role of national policies. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and land use, water, and climate systems, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. (GCAM-USA). GCAM-USA was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and consumption, and their associated water withdrawals and consumption under a set of six scenarios with extensive details on the generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and their associated water use intensities. Six scenarios of future water demands of the U.S. electric-sector were explored to investigate the implications of socioeconomics development and growing electricity demands, climate mitigation policy, the transition of cooling systems, electricity trade, and water saving technologies. Our findings include: 1) decreasing water withdrawals and substantially increasing water consumption from both climate mitigation and the conversion from open-loop to closed-loop cooling systems; 2) open trading of electricity benefiting energy scarce yet demand intensive states; 3) within state variability under different driving forces while across state homogeneity under certain driving force ; 4) a clear trade-off between water consumption and withdrawal for the electricity sector in the U.S. The paper discusses this withdrawal-consumption trade-off in the context of current national policies and regulations that favor decreasing withdrawals (increasing consumptive use), and the role of water saving technologies. The highly-resolved nature of this study both geographically and technologically provides a useful platform to address scientific and policy relevant and emerging issues at the heart of the water-energy nexus in the U.S.

  2. China's Building Energy Use: A Long-Term Perspective based on a Detailed Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.

    2012-01-13

    We present here a detailed, service-based model of China's building energy use, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explore long-term pathways of China's building energy use and identify opportunities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of a structural model of building energy demands within an integrated assessment framework represents a major methodological advance. It allows for a structural understanding of the drivers of building energy consumption while simultaneously considering the other human and natural system interactions that influence changes in the global energy system and climate. We also explore a range of different scenarios to gain insights into how China's building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China's building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

  3. China's Building Energy Demand: Long-Term Implications from a Detailed Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.

    2012-10-01

    We present here a detailed, service-based model of China’s building energy use, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explore long-term pathways of China’s building energy use and identify opportunities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of a structural model of building energy demands within an integrated assessment framework represents a major methodological advance. It allows for a structural understanding of the drivers of building energy consumption while simultaneously considering the other human and natural system interactions that influence changes in the global energy system and climate. We also explore a range of different scenarios to gain insights into how China’s building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China’s building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

  4. Model Based Safety Assessment Dynamic System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grigoras, .Romulus

    Assessment Techniques ·Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) ­ Model: from a local failure to its system chain .... 2 Functional FMEA template FT unannunciated loss of wheel braking #12;Drawbacks of the Classical Safety Assessment Techniques · Fault Tree, FMEA ­ Give failure propagation paths without referring

  5. Are We Compromised? Modelling Security Assessment Games

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    International Association for Cryptologic Research (IACR)

    against cyber-attacks. A security assessment is the process of determining how effectively an entity being examples of cyber attacks that fit this profile are the security breach at RSA Data Security [6Are We Compromised? Modelling Security Assessment Games Viet Pham and Carlos Cid Information

  6. TEPP Planning Products Model Needs Assessment Self Assessment...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    used in the event of an incident involving safeguards material. Model Needs Assessment T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E m e r g e n c y P r e p a r e d n e s s P r o g r a m R E V 8...

  7. Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2002-01-03

    This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materials modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.

  8. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.

    2010-01-01

    Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment Christina E. Cowan-implications for chemical risk assessment. J Environ MonitJM. 2006. Screening level risk assessment model for chemical

  9. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

  10. ORISE: Dose modeling and assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home Room NewsInformationJesseworkSURVEY UNIVERSE The 2014CapabilitiesCareers CareerDose modeling and

  11. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-04-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13% - 22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement.

  12. Assessment of Combustion and Turbulence Models for the Simulation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Combustion and Turbulence Models for the Simulation of Combustion Processes in a DI Diesel Engine Assessment of Combustion and Turbulence Models for the Simulation of Combustion...

  13. Receptor modeling assessment of particle total exposure assessment methodology data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yakovleva, E.; Hopke, P.K.; Wallace, L.

    1999-10-15

    Data from the 1991 Particle Total Exposure Assessment Methodology (PTEAM) study in Riverside, CA, were analyzed using a new receptor modeling method. In this study, ambient (outdoor), indoor, and personal particulate matter (PM) concentrations and elemental concentrations of PM{sub 2.5} and PM{sub 10} were measured for a number of participants. These measurements made is possible to relate the pollution to which people were exposed throughout their daily activities with the outdoor air conditions. Personal daytime concentrations of the PM{sub 10} and majority of elements were significantly higher than outdoor or indoor concentrations, suggesting that a significant part of personal aerosol exposure is the result of personal daily activities. Possible sources of additional particulate mass include resuspension of particles that penetrate from the outdoors and formation of new particles during cooking, smoking, etc. Positive matrix factorization analysis was performed to describe the sources of personal exposure. To identify relative contribution of different sources, regression of the particulate matter mass against the factor contributions was performed. Major sources of PM{sub 2.5} were oil combustion, nonferrous metal operations, and motor vehicles. The mass contributions of particles from these sources were similar for outdoor air and personal exposure. Personal exposure to particles from these sources can be controlled by changing outdoor sources. The primary source of PM{sub 10} was soil.

  14. Model for assessing bronchial mucus transport

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnew, J.E.; Bateman, J.R.M.; Pavia, D.; Clarke, S.W.

    1984-02-01

    The authors propose a scheme for the assessment of regional mucus transport using inhaled Tc-99m aerosol particles and quantitative analysis of serial gamma-camera images. The model treats input to inner and intermediate lung regions as the total of initial deposition there plus subsequent transport into these regions from more peripheral airways. It allows for interregional differences in the proportion of particles deposited on the mucus-bearing conducting airways, and does not require a gamma image 24 hr after particle inhalation. Instead, distribution of particles reaching the respiratory bronchioles or alveoli is determined from a Kr-81m ventilation image, while the total amount of such deposition is obtained from 24-hr Tc-99m retention measured with a sensitive counter system. The model is applicable to transport by mucociliary action or by cough, and has been tested in ten normal and ten asthmatic subjects.

  15. Model-based Risk Assessment What does model-based mean?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    Model-based Risk Assessment What does model-based mean? Model-based means based on modelling keeping a good overview at the same time. What does Risk Assessment mean? A risk assessment is a process to change the system in order to reduce these indicated risks. Why Risk Assessment? IT-systems get bigger

  16. MODELING/GIS, RISK ASSESSMENT, ECONOMIC IMPACT A Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Deployed Military Personnel After

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peterson, Robert K. D.

    MODELING/GIS, RISK ASSESSMENT, ECONOMIC IMPACT A Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Deployed a retrospective probabilistic risk assessment for military personnel potentially exposed to insecticides during, and cypermethrin used for residual sprays. We used the risk quotient (RQ) method for our risk assessment (estimated

  17. Performance model assessment for multi-junction concentrating photovoltaic systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Riley, Daniel M.; McConnell, Robert.; Sahm, Aaron; Crawford, Clark; King, David L.; Cameron, Christopher P.; Foresi, James S.

    2010-03-01

    Four approaches to modeling multi-junction concentrating photovoltaic system performance are assessed by comparing modeled performance to measured performance. Measured weather, irradiance, and system performance data were collected on two systems over a one month period. Residual analysis is used to assess the models and to identify opportunities for model improvement.

  18. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  19. ESD.864 Modeling and Assessment for Policy, Spring 2011

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Selin, Noelle

    ESD.864 Modeling and Assessment for Policy explores how scientific information and quantitative models can be used to inform policy decision-making. Students will develop an understanding of quantitative modeling techniques ...

  20. Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wirosoetisno, Djoko

    and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 3 (1). pp. 1, 1­27, 2003 www.atmos-chem-phys.org/acp/3/1/ Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics UncertaintiesUncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere Article Published

  1. Assessing the reliability of linear dynamic transformer thermal modelling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Assessing the reliability of linear dynamic transformer thermal modelling X. Mao, D.J. Tylavsky and G.A. McCulla Abstract: Improving the utilisation of transformers requires that the hot-spot and top. An alternative method for assessing transformer model reliability is provided. 1 Introduction The maximally

  2. Quality Assurance for Performance Assessment Modeling

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  3. Wind resource assessment with a mesoscale non-hydrostatic model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    Wind resource assessment with a mesoscale non- hydrostatic model Vincent Guénard, Center for Energy is developed for assessing the wind resource and its uncertainty. The work focuses on an existing wind farm mast measurements. The wind speed and turbulence fields are discussed. It is shown that the k

  4. Dioxins in San Francisco Conceptual Model/Impairment Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FINAL Dioxins in San Francisco Bay Conceptual Model/Impairment Assessment Prepared by Mike Connor Partnership November 12, 2004 SFEI Contribution #309 #12;Dioxins in San Francisco Bay: Impairment Assessment. This CM/IA report examines dioxins in San Francisco Bay. Dioxins comprise a group of several hundred

  5. Using Tropos Methodology to Model an Integrated Health Assessment System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    health assessment of health and social care needs of older people is used as the case study throughoutUsing Tropos Methodology to Model an Integrated Health Assessment System Haralambos Mouratidis 1 of Trento, Italy pgiorgini@dit.unit.it Abstract. This paper presents a case study to illustrate the features

  6. Eutrophication risk assessment in coastal embayments using simple statistical models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arhonditsis, George B.

    Eutrophication risk assessment in coastal embayments using simple statistical models G. Arhonditsis was the development of regression models relating the levels of chlorophyll a (Chl) with the concentration of the limiting nutrient­­usually nitrogen­­and the renewal rate of the systems. The method was applied

  7. Using connectionist models to assess programmers' expertise 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chapa-Villarreal, Rodolfo

    1994-01-01

    A programmer can be classified as a novice or an expert according to the performance exhibited in a programming related task. The objective of this thesis is to show that a neural network can be used to model the classification strategies...

  8. Learning Usability Assessment Models for Web Sites 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Davis, Paul

    2012-02-14

    and the department faculty and staff for making my time at Texas A&M University a great experience. I wish to acknowledge and thank the Space Telescope Institute (STScI) and NASA for use of HubbleSite (hubblesite.org). My gratitude and acknowledgement go... .................................................................. 4 2 Model of linear relationship and pair ratings ............................................. 7 3 Data-centric design of system .................................................................... 27 4 Highest overall precision above...

  9. Model and Analytic Processes for Export License Assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, Sandra E.; Whitney, Paul D.; Weimar, Mark R.; Wood, Thomas W.; Daly, Don S.; Brothers, Alan J.; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Cook, Diane; Holder, Larry

    2011-09-29

    This paper represents the Department of Energy Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development (NA-22) Simulations, Algorithms and Modeling (SAM) Program's first effort to identify and frame analytical methods and tools to aid export control professionals in effectively predicting proliferation intent; a complex, multi-step and multi-agency process. The report focuses on analytical modeling methodologies that alone, or combined, may improve the proliferation export control license approval process. It is a follow-up to an earlier paper describing information sources and environments related to international nuclear technology transfer. This report describes the decision criteria used to evaluate modeling techniques and tools to determine which approaches will be investigated during the final 2 years of the project. The report also details the motivation for why new modeling techniques and tools are needed. The analytical modeling methodologies will enable analysts to evaluate the information environment for relevance to detecting proliferation intent, with specific focus on assessing risks associated with transferring dual-use technologies. Dual-use technologies can be used in both weapons and commercial enterprises. A decision-framework was developed to evaluate which of the different analytical modeling methodologies would be most appropriate conditional on the uniqueness of the approach, data availability, laboratory capabilities, relevance to NA-22 and Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation (NA-24) research needs and the impact if successful. Modeling methodologies were divided into whether they could help micro-level assessments (e.g., help improve individual license assessments) or macro-level assessment. Macro-level assessment focuses on suppliers, technology, consumers, economies, and proliferation context. Macro-level assessment technologies scored higher in the area of uniqueness because less work has been done at the macro level. An approach to developing testable hypotheses for the macro-level assessment methodologies is provided. The outcome of this works suggests that we should develop a Bayes Net for micro-level analysis and continue to focus on Bayes Net, System Dynamics and Economic Input/Output models for assessing macro-level problems. Simultaneously, we need to develop metrics for assessing intent in export control, including the risks and consequences associated with all aspects of export control.

  10. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol. 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios.

  11. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-05-24

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint.

  12. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  13. Statewide and Electricity-Sector Models for Economic Assessments of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    is an Assistant Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Hawaii at Manoa. She teaches graduate/Pacific Region; energy policy; planning methods; and environmental valuation. She specializes in economicStatewide and Electricity-Sector Models for Economic Assessments of Hawai`i Clean Energy Policies

  14. POWER PLANT IMPACT ASSESSMENT: A SIMPLE FISHERY PRODUCTION MODEL APPROACH

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    POWER PLANT IMPACT ASSESSMENT: A SIMPLE FISHERY PRODUCTION MODEL APPROACH ALECD. MACCALL,' KEITHR power plant entrainment mortality as a fraction (Rc) of the abundance ofthat cohort in the absence of power plant impact can be calculated by Rc = exp (-Ejtj) wheretj is the duration oflife stagei, and

  15. Water Body Temperature Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    climatological data and thermal pollution from river-based power plants to historical river flow data in orderWater Body Temperature Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Thermal Cooling Ken Strzepek Climate Change Impacts on Thermal Cooling Ken Strzepek* , Charles Fant* , Yohannes Gebretsadik , Megan

  16. An integrated assessment of global and regional water demands for electricity generation to 2095

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davies, Evan; Kyle, G. Page; Edmonds, James A.

    2013-02-01

    Electric power plants currently account for approximately one-half of the global industrial water withdrawal. While continued expansion of the electric sector seems likely into the future, the consequent water demands are quite uncertain, and will depend on highly variable water intensities by electricity technologies, at present and in the future. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change, we first establish lower-bound, median, and upper-bound estimates for present-day electric sector water withdrawals and consumption by individual electric generation technologies in each of 14 geopolitical regions, and compare them with available estimates of regional industrial or electric sector water use. We then explore the evolution of global and regional electric sector water use over the next century, focusing on uncertainties related to withdrawal and consumption intensities for a variety of electric generation technologies, rates of change of power plant cooling system types, and rates of adoption of a suite of water-saving technologies. Results reveal that the water withdrawal intensity of electricity generation is likely to decrease in the near term with capital stock turnover, as wet towers replace once-through flow cooling systems and advanced electricity generation technologies replace conventional ones. An increase in consumptive use accompanies the decrease in water withdrawal rates; however, a suite of water conservation technologies currently under development could compensate for this increase in consumption. Finally, at a regional scale, water use characteristics vary significantly based on characteristics of the existing capital stock and the selection of electricity generation technologies into the future.

  17. Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wirosoetisno, Djoko

    Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models. (2010) Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models Chemistry and Physics Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery

  18. Fuel cycle assessment: A compendium of models, methodologies, and approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-07-01

    The purpose of this document is to profile analytical tools and methods which could be used in a total fuel cycle analysis. The information in this document provides a significant step towards: (1) Characterizing the stages of the fuel cycle. (2) Identifying relevant impacts which can feasibly be evaluated quantitatively or qualitatively. (3) Identifying and reviewing other activities that have been conducted to perform a fuel cycle assessment or some component thereof. (4) Reviewing the successes/deficiencies and opportunities/constraints of previous activities. (5) Identifying methods and modeling techniques/tools that are available, tested and could be used for a fuel cycle assessment.

  19. Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

    2005-12-01

    We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such models do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3

  20. Literature Review and Assessment of Plant and Animal Transfer Factors Used in Performance Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robertson, David E.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Sasser, Lyle B.

    2003-07-20

    A literature review and assessment was conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to update information on plant and animal radionuclide transfer factors used in performance-assessment modeling. A group of 15 radionuclides was included in this review and assessment. The review is composed of four main sections, not including the Introduction. Section 2.0 provides a review of the critically important issue of physicochemical speciation and geochemistry of the radionuclides in natural soil-water systems as it relates to the bioavailability of the radionuclides. Section 3.0 provides an updated review of the parameters of importance in the uptake of radionuclides by plants, including root uptake via the soil-groundwater system and foliar uptake due to overhead irrigation. Section 3.0 also provides a compilation of concentration ratios (CRs) for soil-to-plant uptake for the 15 selected radionuclides. Section 4.0 provides an updated review on radionuclide uptake data for animal products related to absorption, homeostatic control, approach to equilibration, chemical and physical form, diet, and age. Compiled transfer coefficients are provided for cow’s milk, sheep’s milk, goat’s milk, beef, goat meat, pork, poultry, and eggs. Section 5.0 discusses the use of transfer coefficients in soil, plant, and animal modeling using regulatory models for evaluating radioactive waste disposal or decommissioned sites. Each section makes specific suggestions for future research in its area.

  1. Kinetic Modeling and Assessment of Lime Pretreatment of Poplar Wood 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sierra Ramirez, Rocio

    2012-02-14

    , industrial, and agricultural). 5. Appropriate selection of feedstock and conversion technology. 6. Improved efficiency of the production technology obtained through intensive research and development. 7. More efficient use of energy, including vehicle...-1 KINETIC MODELING AND ASSESSMENT OF LIME PRETREATMENT OF POPLAR WOOD A Dissertation by ROCIO SIERRA RAMIREZ Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree...

  2. PORFLOW Modeling Supporting The H-Tank Farm Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, J. M.; Flach, G. P.; Westbrook, M. L.

    2012-08-31

    Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the vadose and saturated zones have been conducted using the PORFLOW code in support of an overall Performance Assessment (PA) of the H-Tank Farm. This report provides technical detail on selected aspects of PORFLOW model development and describes the structure of the associated electronic files. The PORFLOW models for the H-Tank Farm PA, Rev. 1 were updated with grout, solubility, and inventory changes. The aquifer model was refined. In addition, a set of flow sensitivity runs were performed to allow flow to be varied in the related probabilistic GoldSim models. The final PORFLOW concentration values are used as input into a GoldSim dose calculator.

  3. CliCrop: a Crop Water-Stress and Irrigation Demand Model for an Integrated Global Assessment Model Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fant, C.A.

    This paper describes the use of the CliCrop model in the context of climate change general assessment

  4. An Inspector's Assessment of the New Model Safeguards Approach for Enrichment Plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Michael M.

    2007-07-31

    This conference paper assesses the changes that are being made to the Model Safeguards Approach for Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants.

  5. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application. It is possible to have confidence in the predictions of many of the existing models because of their fundamental physical and chemical mechanistic underpinnings and the extensive work already done to compare model predictions and empirical observations. The working group recommends that modeling tools be applied for benchmarking PBT/POPs according to exposure-to-emissions relationships, and that modeling tools be used to interpret emissions and monitoring data. The further development of models that couple fate, long-range transport, and bioaccumulation should be fostered, especially models that will allow time trends to be scientifically addressed in the risk profile.

  6. A preliminary study to Assess Model Uncertainties in Fluid Flows

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marc Oliver Delchini; Jean C. Ragusa

    2009-09-01

    The goal of this study is to assess the impact of various flow models for a simplified primary coolant loop of a light water nuclear reactor. The various fluid flow models are based on the Euler equations with an additional friction term, gravity term, momentum source, and energy source. The geometric model is purposefully chosen simple and consists of a one-dimensional (1D) loop system in order to focus the study on the validity of various fluid flow approximations. The 1D loop system is represented by a rectangle; the fluid is heated up along one of the vertical legs and cooled down along the opposite leg. A pressurizer and a pump are included in the horizontal legs. The amount of energy transferred and removed from the system is equal in absolute value along the two vertical legs. The various fluid flow approximations are compressible vs. incompressible, and complete momentum equation vs. Darcy’s approximation. The ultimate goal is to compute the fluid flow models’ uncertainties and, if possible, to generate validity ranges for these models when applied to reactor analysis. We also limit this study to single phase flows with low-Mach numbers. As a result, sound waves carry a very small amount of energy in this particular case. A standard finite volume method is used for the spatial discretization of the system.

  7. A CONCEPT TO ASSESS THE PERFORMANCE OF A PERMAFROST MODEL RUN FULLY COUPLED WITH A CLIMATE MODEL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moelders, Nicole

    A CONCEPT TO ASSESS THE PERFORMANCE OF A PERMAFROST MODEL RUN FULLY COUPLED WITH A CLIMATE MODEL APPROVED: Dean, College of Natural Science and Mathematics Dean of the Graduate School Date #12;A CONCEPT TO ASSESS THE PERFORMANCE OF A PERMAFROST MODEL RUN FULLY COUPLED WITH A CLIMATE MODEL A DISSERTATION

  8. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Enhancing a Facility-Level Model for Proliferation Resistance Assessment of a Nuclear Enegry System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Olson, Jarrod; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-10-26

    The Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment project (PL09-UtilSocial) investigates the use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessments, including nonproliferation assessments, Proliferation Resistance (PR) assessments, safeguards assessments, and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about a host State and its posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system (NES) to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This objective of this project is to find and integrate social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social, and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation; and to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment. This report describes a modeling approach and how it might be used to support a location-specific assessment of the PR assessment of a particular NES. The report demonstrates the use of social modeling to enhance an existing assessment process that relies on primarily technical factors. This effort builds on a literature review and preliminary assessment performed as the first stage of the project and compiled in PNNL-18438. [ T his report describes an effort to answer questions about whether it is possible to incorporate social modeling into a PR assessment in such a way that we can determine the effects of social factors on a primarily technical assessment. This report provides: 1. background information about relevant social factors literature; 2. background information about a particular PR assessment approach relevant to this particular demonstration; 3. a discussion of social modeling undertaken to find and characterize social factors that are relevant to the PR assessment of a nuclear facility in a specific location; 4. description of an enhancement concept that integrates social factors into an existing, technically based nuclear facility assessment; 5. a discussion of a way to engage with the owners of the PR assessment methodology to assess and improve the enhancement concept; 6. a discussion of implementation of the proposed approach, including a discussion of functionality and potential users; and 7. conclusions from the research. This report represents technical deliverables for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling program. Specifically this report is the Task 2 and 3 deliverables for project PL09-UtilSocial.

  9. Assessment of PWR waterside corrosion models and data. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cox, B.

    1985-10-01

    The published data on waterside corrosion of PWR fuel cladding and unfuelled components have been reviewed, and the models used to assess the data have been studied. All corrosion models use too simplified a view of the corrosion process to obtain other than a general trend for the actual oxidation data. The in-reactor post-transition oxidation of the Zircaloys appears to be heavily dependent on water chemistry variations both between reactors, and along the length of an individual fuel rod. Crud deposition may be one primary cause of this, perhaps by allowing the independent development of the water chemistry within the crud layer, as much as by its effect on cladding surface temperatures. However, the effect of the thickening of the oxide film, which permits the development of an independent water chemistry inside the oxide, leading to an accelerating oxidation rate at large oxide thicknesses, seems to be the most important factor. It is concluded that a spectrum of results ranging from essentially no in-reactor enhancement of the oxidation rate to a sizeable enhancement (>10) may be seen depending upon the thickness of the oxide films, the water chemistry of the reactor, and crud deposition. A post-irradiation test that may help to distinguish between the factors involved has been suggested. 105 refs., 38 figs.

  10. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    environmental changes. Being data-driven, the Program uses extensive Earth system and economic data and models System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate's Integrated Global System Model. Through this integrated model, the Program seeks to: discover new

  11. Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: Model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Föllmer, Hans

    Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: Model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles Beatrice Acciaio Hans F¨ollmer Irina Penner August 26, 2010 Abstract We study the risk assessment penalization, and how they cause a breakdown of asymptotic safety of the risk assessment procedure. Mathematics

  12. Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems with Applications to Accident Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Del Moral , Pierre

    Modelling of Stochastic Hybrid Systems with Applications to Accident Risk Assessment #12;The SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS TO ACCIDENT RISK ASSESSMENT DISSERTATION to obtain the doctor's degree promotor Prof. dr. A. Bagchi #12;Contents 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Accident risk assessment

  13. Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestration and Land Use Emissions Using Detailed Model Results and Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Atul Jain

    2005-04-17

    This report outlines the progress on the development and application of Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestrations and Land Use Emissions supported by the DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DOE-DE-FG02-01ER63069. The overall objective of this collaborative project between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was to unite the latest advances in carbon cycle research with scientifically based models and policy-related integrated assessment tools that incorporate computationally efficient representations of the latest knowledge concerning science and emission trajectories, and their policy implications. As part of this research we accomplished the following tasks that we originally proposed: (1) In coordination with LLNL and ORNL, we enhanced the Integrated Science Assessment Model's (ISAM) parametric representation of the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycles that better represent spatial and seasonal variations, which are important to study the mechanisms that influence carbon sequestration in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems; (2) Using the MiniCAM modeling capability, we revised the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios; IPCC, 2000) land use emission scenarios; and (3) On the application front, the enhanced version of ISAM modeling capability is applied to understand how short- and long-term natural carbon fluxes, carbon sequestration, and human emissions contribute to the net global emissions (concentrations) trajectories required to reach various concentration (emission) targets. Under this grant, 21 research publications were produced. In addition, this grant supported a number of graduate and undergraduate students whose fundamental research was to learn a disciplinary field in climate change (e.g., ecological dynamics and ocean circulations) and then complete research on how this field could be linked to the other factors we need to consider in its dynamics (e.g., land use, ocean and terrestrial carbon sequestration and climate change).

  14. Assessing Uncertainty in Spatial Exposure Models for Air Pollution Health Effects Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-01-01

    assessing air pollution exposure within cities as a priorityof air pollution exposure within cities or the associ- atedpollution levels are spatially autocorrelated within cities, and

  15. Aalborg Universitet An assessment of converter modelling needs for offshore wind power plants

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bak, Claus Leth

    Aalborg Universitet An assessment of converter modelling needs for offshore wind power plants). An assessment of converter modelling needs for offshore wind power plants connected via VSC-HVDC networks Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Plants. Energynautics

  16. Computation Modeling and Assessment of Nanocoatings for Ultra Supercritical Boilers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Shingledecker; D. Gandy; N. Cheruvu; R. Wei; K. Chan

    2011-06-21

    Forced outages and boiler unavailability of coal-fired fossil plants is most often caused by fire-side corrosion of boiler waterwalls and tubing. Reliable coatings are required for Ultrasupercritical (USC) application to mitigate corrosion since these boilers will operate at a much higher temperatures and pressures than in supercritical (565 C {at} 24 MPa) boilers. Computational modeling efforts have been undertaken to design and assess potential Fe-Cr-Ni-Al systems to produce stable nanocrystalline coatings that form a protective, continuous scale of either Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} or Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}. The computational modeling results identified a new series of Fe-25Cr-40Ni with or without 10 wt.% Al nanocrystalline coatings that maintain long-term stability by forming a diffusion barrier layer at the coating/substrate interface. The computational modeling predictions of microstructure, formation of continuous Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} scale, inward Al diffusion, grain growth, and sintering behavior were validated with experimental results. Advanced coatings, such as MCrAl (where M is Fe, Ni, or Co) nanocrystalline coatings, have been processed using different magnetron sputtering deposition techniques. Several coating trials were performed and among the processing methods evaluated, the DC pulsed magnetron sputtering technique produced the best quality coating with a minimum number of shallow defects and the results of multiple deposition trials showed that the process is repeatable. scale, inward Al diffusion, grain growth, and sintering behavior were validated with experimental results. The cyclic oxidation test results revealed that the nanocrystalline coatings offer better oxidation resistance, in terms of weight loss, localized oxidation, and formation of mixed oxides in the Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} scale, than widely used MCrAlY coatings. However, the ultra-fine grain structure in these coatings, consistent with the computational model predictions, resulted in accelerated Al diffusion from the coating into the substrate. An effective diffusion barrier interlayer coating was developed to prevent inward Al diffusion. The fire-side corrosion test results showed that the nanocrystalline coatings with a minimum number of defects have a great potential in providing corrosion protection. The coating tested in the most aggressive environment showed no evidence of coating spallation and/or corrosion attack after 1050 hours exposure. In contrast, evidence of coating spallation in isolated areas and corrosion attack of the base metal in the spalled areas were observed after 500 hours. These contrasting results after 500 and 1050 hours exposure suggest that the premature coating spallation in isolated areas may be related to the variation of defects in the coating between the samples. It is suspected that the cauliflower-type defects in the coating were presumably responsible for coating spallation in isolated areas. Thus, a defect free good quality coating is the key for the long-term durability of nanocrystalline coatings in corrosive environments. Thus, additional process optimization work is required to produce defect-free coatings prior to development of a coating application method for production parts.

  17. [10-386] Assessing and Improving the Scale Dependence of Ecosystem Processes in Earth System Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    . Goodale Cornell U. *Overall Project Lead *Lead Institution Intellectual Merit: Earth system models include policies. Our research assesses and improves Earth system model simulations of the carbon cycle, ecosystem of the Community Climate System Model/Community Earth System Model, which includes statistical meteorological

  18. Assessing Models of Public Understanding In ELSI Outreach Materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bruce V. Lewenstein, Ph.D.; Dominique Brossard, Ph.D.

    2006-03-01

    Advances in the science of genetics have implications for individuals and society, and have to be taken into account at the policy level. Studies of ethical, legal and social issues related to genomic research have therefore been integrated in the Human Genome Project (HGP) since the earliest days of the project. Since 1990, three to five percent of the HGP annual budget has been devoted to such studies, under the umbrella of the Ethical, Legal, and Social Implications (ELSI) Programs of the National Human Genome Research Institute of the National Institute of Health, and of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The DOE-ELSI budget has been used to fund a variety of projects that have aimed at ?promoting education and help guide the conduct of genetic research and the development of related medical and public policies? (HGP, 2003). As part of the educational component, a significant portion of DOE-ELSI funds have been dedicated to public outreach projects, with the underlying goal of promoting public awareness and ultimately public discussion of ethical, legal, and social issues surrounding availability of genetic information (Drell, 2002). The essential assumption behind these projects is that greater access to information will lead to more knowledge about ethical, legal and social issues, which in turn will lead to enhanced ability on the part of individuals and communities to deal with these issues when they encounter them. Over the same period of time, new concepts of ?public understanding of science? have emerged in the theoretical realm, moving from a ?deficit? or linear dissemination of popularization, to models stressing lay-knowledge, public engagement and public participation in science policy-making (Lewenstein, 2003). The present project uses the base of DOE-funded ELSI educational project to explore the ways that information about a new and emerging area of science that is intertwined with public issues has been used in educational public settings to affect public understanding of science. After a theoretical background discussion, our approach is three-fold. First, we will provide an overview, a ?map? of DOE-funded of outreach programs within the overall ELSI context to identify the importance of the educational component, and to present the criteria we used to select relevant and representative case studies. Second, we will document the history of the case studies. Finally, we will explore an intertwined set of research questions: (1) To identify what we can expect such projects to accomplish -in other words to determine the goals that can reasonably be achieved by different types of outreach, (2) To point out how the case study approach could be useful for DOE-ELSI outreach as a whole, and (3) To use the case study approach as a basis to test theoretical models of science outreach in order to assess to what extent those models accord with real world outreach activities. For this last goal, we aim at identifying what practices among ELSI outreach activities contribute most to dissemination, or to participation, in other words in which cases outreach materials spark action in terms of public participation in decisions about scientific issues.

  19. Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models: the MIT IGSM*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    interactions among natural and human climate system components; objectively assess uncertainty in economic, monitor and verify greenhouse gas emissions and climatic impacts. This reprint is one of a series intended to their daily lives--crop yield, food prices, premature death, flooding or drought events, land use change

  20. Models used to assess the performance of photovoltaic systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Klise, Geoffrey T.

    2009-12-01

    This report documents the various photovoltaic (PV) performance models and software developed and utilized by researchers at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in support of the Photovoltaics and Grid Integration Department. In addition to PV performance models, hybrid system and battery storage models are discussed. A hybrid system using other distributed sources and energy storage can help reduce the variability inherent in PV generation, and due to the complexity of combining multiple generation sources and system loads, these models are invaluable for system design and optimization. Energy storage plays an important role in reducing PV intermittency and battery storage models are used to understand the best configurations and technologies to store PV generated electricity. Other researcher's models used by SNL are discussed including some widely known models that incorporate algorithms developed at SNL. There are other models included in the discussion that are not used by or were not adopted from SNL research but may provide some benefit to researchers working on PV array performance, hybrid system models and energy storage. The paper is organized into three sections to describe the different software models as applied to photovoltaic performance, hybrid systems, and battery storage. For each model, there is a description which includes where to find the model, whether it is currently maintained and any references that may be available. Modeling improvements underway at SNL include quantifying the uncertainty of individual system components, the overall uncertainty in modeled vs. measured results and modeling large PV systems. SNL is also conducting research into the overall reliability of PV systems.

  1. Conceptual design of an integrated technology model for carbon policy assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.; Dimotakes, Paul E.

    2011-01-01

    This report describes the conceptual design of a technology choice model for understanding strategies to reduce carbon intensity in the electricity sector. The report considers the major modeling issues affecting technology policy assessment and defines an implementable model construct. Further, the report delineates the basis causal structure of such a model and attempts to establish the technical/algorithmic viability of pursuing model development along with the associated analyses.

  2. Climate Change Modeling and Downscaling Issues and Methodological Perspectives for the U.S. National Climate Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Janetos, Anthony C.; Collins, William D.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah; Hayhoe, Katharine; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Hurtt, George

    2012-03-31

    This is the full workshop report for the modeling workshop we did for the National Climate Assessment, with DOE support.

  3. U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR UNDISCOVERED CONVENTIONAL OIL, GAS, AND NGL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laughlin, Robert B.

    AM-i Chapter AM U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR UNDISCOVERED CONVENTIONAL OIL, GAS Survey (USGS) periodically conducts assessments of the oil, gas, and natural-gas liquids (NGL) resources by the USGS in1998 for undiscovered oil, gas, and NGL resources that reside in conventional accumulations

  4. Automated Software Engineering Process Assessment: Supporting Diverse Models using an Ontology

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ulm, Universität

    , ISO 9001). It also provides an in-the-loop automated process assessment capability that can help, ISO 9001), and suitable performance and scalability. The approach can reduce the effort required, and common reference model assessment standards utilize external audits (CMMI [3], ISO 15504 [4], and ISO

  5. Assessing the cumulative environmental impact of hydropower construction on river systems based on energy network model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fath, Brian D.

    Assessing the cumulative environmental impact of hydropower construction on river systems based 2014 Keywords: Hydropower construction Sustainable energy development Environmental impact assessment Energy network model a b s t r a c t Hydropower is the major renewable energy source for many nations

  6. Experimental and modelling approaches for the assessment of chemical impacts of leachate migration

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sheffield, University of

    Experimental and modelling approaches for the assessment of chemical impacts of leachate migration of landfill leachate migration on groundwater resources are conservative and generalised. Cost are evaluated as a combined approach for assessing the chem'ical impact of leachate migration in the Triassic

  7. Assessing Uncertainty in Spatial Exposure Models for Air Pollution Health Effects Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-01-01

    Spatial analysis of air pollution and mor- tality in Losin studies linking chronic air pollution exposure to health2006. Bayesian modeling of air pollution health effects with

  8. Modeling toxic endpoints for improving human health risk assessment 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bruce, Erica Dawn

    2009-05-15

    RAGS Risk Assessment Guidance For Superfund RCRA Resource Conservation and Recovery Act SD Sum of Squared Deviation TCDD 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-Dioxin TEF Toxic Equivalency Factor TEF B Bioassay Based Toxic Equivalency... Amendments (HSWA) of 1984 further strengthened the EPA?s ability to regulate waste disposal. The HSWA was responsible for the eventual removal of land disposal of hazardous wastes. Cancers, renal disease, circulatory disorders, reproductive disorders...

  9. Assessment of Driving Mental Models as a Predictor of Crashes and Moving Violations 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Munoz Galvez, Gonzalo Javier

    2012-07-16

    -1 ASSESSMENT OF DRIVING MENTAL MODELS AS A PREDICTOR OF CRASHES AND MOVING VIOLATIONS A Thesis by GONZALO JAVIER MU?OZ G?LVEZ Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements... for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 2011 Major Subject: Psychology Assessment of Driving Mental Models as a Predictor of Crashes and Moving Violations Copyright 2011 Gonzalo Javier Mu?oz G...

  10. A new analytic-adaptive model for EGS assessment, development...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    (THMC) processes relevant to thermal energy extraction from an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS). UNR defines the great challenges in numerical modeling as to (1) dealing...

  11. Utility of Social Modeling in Assessment of a State’s Propensity for Nuclear Proliferation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Dalton, Angela C.; Olson, Jarrod; White, Amanda M.; Cooley, Scott K.; Youchak, Paul M.; Stafford, Samuel V.

    2011-06-01

    This report is the third and final report out of a set of three reports documenting research for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Security Administration (NASA) Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling program that investigates how social modeling can be used to improve proliferation assessment for informing nuclear security, policy, safeguards, design of nuclear systems and research decisions. Social modeling has not to have been used to any significant extent in a proliferation studies. This report focuses on the utility of social modeling as applied to the assessment of a State's propensity to develop a nuclear weapons program.

  12. Aquifer sensitivity assessment modeling at a large scale

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Berg, R.C.; Abert, C.C. (Illinois State Geological Survey, Champaign, IL (United States))

    1994-03-01

    A 480 square-mile region within Will County, northeastern Illinois was used as a test region for an evaluation of the sensitivity of aquifers to contamination. An aquifer sensitivity model was developed using a Geographic Information System (GIS) with ARC/INFO software to overlay and combine several data layers. Many of the input data layers were developed using 2-dimensional surface modeling (Interactive Surface Modeling (ISM)) and 3-dimensional volume modeling (Geologic Modeling Program (GMP)) computer software. Most of the input data layers (drift thickness, thickness of sand and gravel, depth to first aquifer) were derived from interpolation of descriptive logs for water wells and engineering borings from their study area. A total of 2,984 logs were used to produce these maps. The components used for the authors' model are (1) depth to sand and gravel or bedrock, (2) thickness of the uppermost sand and gravel aquifer, (3) drift thickness, and (4) absence or presence of uppermost bedrock aquifer. The model is an improvement over many aquifer sensitivity models because it combines specific information on depth to the uppermost sand and gravel aquifer with information on the thickness of the uppermost sand and gravel aquifer. The manipulation of the source maps according to rules-based assumptions results in a colored aquifer sensitivity map for the Will County study area. This colored map differentiates 42 aquifer sensitivity map areas by using line patterns within colors. The county-scale model results in an aquifer sensitivity map that can be a useful tool for making land-use planning decisions regarding aquifer protection and management of groundwater resources.

  13. Assessing uncertainty in models of the ocean carbon cycle 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, Vivian

    2010-01-01

    In this thesis I explore the effect of parameter uncertainty in ocean biogeochemical models on the calculation of carbon uptake by the ocean. The ocean currently absorbs around a quarter of the annual anthropogenic CO2 ...

  14. Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ackerman, Frank; DeCanio, Stephen J.; Howarth, Richard B.; Sheeran, Kristen

    2009-01-01

    cost-effective technologies into climate models that yieldcosts of climate policy depend heavily on how technology andTechnology forecasts: not so bright IAMs simulate the macroeconomic impacts of climate

  15. Modelling risk and risking models: the diffusive boundary between science and policy in volcanic risk assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Donovan, Amy R.; Oppenheimer, Clive

    2014-11-27

    This article examines the science-policy interface in volcanic risk assessment. It analyses empirical data from research on Montserrat, where new volcanic risk assessment methodologies were pioneered. We discuss the ways in which these methods...

  16. Analyzing water supply in future energy systems using the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM-FR)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Analyzing water supply in future energy systems using the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM Mathematics, MINES ParisTech Sophia Antipolis, France ABSTRACT Even though policies related to water is required to maintain water supplies while water is essential to produce energy. However, the models

  17. Random Forest-Based Protein Model Quality Assessment (RFMQA) Using Structural Features and Potential Energy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Jooyoung

    Random Forest-Based Protein Model Quality Assessment (RFMQA) Using Structural Features and Potential Energy Terms Balachandran Manavalan, Juyong Lee, Jooyoung Lee* Center for In Silico Protein in protein structure prediction. In this study, we present the first application of random forest based model

  18. Thesis proposal CSF Brazil 2014 Causal model for flood risk assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bordenave, Charles

    Thesis proposal CSF Brazil 2014 Title: Causal model for flood risk assessment Thesis supervisor: The thesis aims to provide an operational tool for the anticipation of flood risk in mountain areas. The work for the anticipation of flood risk in mountain areas. The work will lead to the establishment of a model

  19. Developing a Regional Integrated Assessment Model (RIAM) Framework PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Benjamin L. Preston

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    responses of human systems. This project seeks to apply a regional IAM framework to the Gulf Coast region issues, and energy supply issues are all occurring simultaneous- ly, but for which integrated modeling regionalized to develop a new regional IAM capability (Regional Global Change Assessment Model *RCGAM+). RCGAM

  20. Integration of Landsat Imagery and an Inundation Model in Flood Assessment and Predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ezer,Tal

    regions. The topography data used by the model were based only on a subjective assessment from various data in shallow regions and flood zones where land- base data are not available. Keywords constraint to the development of such numerical models is the lack of suitable validation data sources [3

  1. A next-generation modeling capability assesses wind turbine array fluid dynamics and aeroelastic simulations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A next-generation modeling capability assesses wind turbine array fluid dynamics and aeroelastic simulations Characterizing and optimizing overall performance of wind plants composed of large numbers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are coupling physical models of the atmosphere and wind

  2. Using beryllium-7 to assess cross-tropopause1 transport in global models2

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liu, Hongyu

    1 Using beryllium-7 to assess cross-tropopause1 transport in global models2 3 Hongyu Liu1 , David B, MA13 14 Short Title: Beryllium-7 and cross-tropopause transport15 Index Terms: 0368 Troposphere Initiative (GMI) modeling framework the29 utility of cosmogenic beryllium-7 (7 Be), a natural aerosol tracer

  3. Re-conceptualizing the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to predict runoff from variable

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Walter, M.Todd

    runoff in ways that implicitly assume an infiltration-excess response to rainfall. Because of this generated in rural, humid regions. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was re is applied in these models implicitly assumes an infiltration-excess (or Hortonian, i.e., Horton, 1933

  4. Modeling of tsunami sources and propagation in the Atlantic Ocean Basin to assess coastal tsunami

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kirby, James T.

    Modeling of tsunami sources and propagation in the Atlantic Ocean Basin to assess coastal tsunami 19716, USA Abstract Since 2010, under the auspices of the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Pro- gram (NTHMP), the authors have conducted modeling work to gradually develop tsunami inundation maps

  5. First Prev Next Last Go Back Full Screen Close Quit Model Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spang, Rainer

    ·First ·Prev ·Next ·Last ·Go Back ·Full Screen ·Close ·Quit Model Assessment and Selection Axel ·Prev ·Next ·Last ·Go Back ·Full Screen ·Close ·Quit Model Assessment and Selection 2 Topics Predictive · Restriction · Selection · Regularization #12;·First ·Prev ·Next ·Last ·Go Back ·Full Screen ·Close ·Quit Model

  6. Environmental Modeling and Assessment (2005) 10:6379 DOI 10.1007/s10666-004-4267-z Springer 2005

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Risbey, James S.

    2005-01-01

    Environmental Modeling and Assessment (2005) 10:63­79 DOI 10.1007/s10666-004-4267-z Springer 2005 Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model James Risbey a present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only

  7. GIS and plume dispersion modeling for population exposure assessment 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Archer, Jeffrey Keith

    1998-01-01

    al. 1995, Maslia, et al. 1994). A study of the Monticello power plant in northeast Texas was conducted using the SCREEN3 mathematical plume dispersion model, US Census Bureau demographic data, and a GIS to examine the effects of the plant output...

  8. Common-Cause Failure Treatment in Event Assessment: Basis for a Proposed New Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dana Kelly; Song-Hua Shen; Gary DeMoss; Kevin Coyne; Don Marksberry

    2010-06-01

    Event assessment is an application of probabilistic risk assessment in which observed equipment failures and outages are mapped into the risk model to obtain a numerical estimate of the event’s risk significance. In this paper, we focus on retrospective assessments to estimate the risk significance of degraded conditions such as equipment failure accompanied by a deficiency in a process such as maintenance practices. In modeling such events, the basic events in the risk model that are associated with observed failures and other off-normal situations are typically configured to be failed, while those associated with observed successes and unchallenged components are assumed capable of failing, typically with their baseline probabilities. This is referred to as the failure memory approach to event assessment. The conditioning of common-cause failure probabilities for the common cause component group associated with the observed component failure is particularly important, as it is insufficient to simply leave these probabilities at their baseline values, and doing so may result in a significant underestimate of risk significance for the event. Past work in this area has focused on the mathematics of the adjustment. In this paper, we review the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, which underlies most current risk modelling, discuss the limitations of this model with respect to event assessment, and introduce a proposed new framework for common-cause failure, which uses a Bayesian network to model underlying causes of failure, and which has the potential to overcome the limitations of the Basic Parameter Model with respect to event assessment.

  9. Models Used to Assess the Performance of Photovoltaic Systems | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious RankADVANCED MANUFACTURING OFFICESpecialAPPENDIX F Wetlandsof Energy ModelSEI Layer | Department ofof

  10. Systematic Assessment of Neutron and Gamma Backgrounds Relevant to Operational Modeling and Detection Technology Implementation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Archer, Daniel E.; Hornback, Donald Eric; Johnson, Jeffrey O.; Nicholson, Andrew D.; Patton, Bruce W.; Peplow, Douglas E.; Miller, Thomas Martin; Ayaz-Maierhafer, Birsen

    2015-01-01

    This report summarizes the findings of a two year effort to systematically assess neutron and gamma backgrounds relevant to operational modeling and detection technology implementation. The first year effort focused on reviewing the origins of background sources and their impact on measured rates in operational scenarios of interest. The second year has focused on the assessment of detector and algorithm performance as they pertain to operational requirements against the various background sources and background levels.

  11. Using Noncompensatory Models in Cognitive Diagnostic Mathematics Assessments: An Evaluation Based on Empirical Data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhao, Fei

    2013-08-31

    Using Noncompensatory Models in Cognitive Diagnostic Mathematics Assessments: An Evaluation Based on Empirical Data By Fei Zhao Submitted to the graduate degree program in the Department of Psychology and Research in Education and the Graduate... precisely identify the aspects that need to be evaluated and conduct assessments on these aspects. Cognitive theories have played many important roles in educational and psychological settings according to several measurement specialists (e.g., Embretson...

  12. Verification and validation of the decision analysis model for assessment of tank waste remediation system waste treatment strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Awadalla, N.G.; Eaton, S.C.F.

    1996-09-04

    This document is the verification and validation final report for the Decision Analysis Model for Assessment of Tank Waste Remediation System Waste Treatment Strategies. This model is also known as the INSIGHT Model.

  13. Coupling GIS and LCA for biodiversity assessments of land use: Part 1: Inventory modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Geyer, Roland; Stoms, David M.; Lindner, Jan P.; Davis, Frank W.; Wittstock, Bastian

    2010-01-01

    assessment. To assess desertification potential, Núñez etAssessing potential desertification environmental impact in

  14. Computational Modeling and Assessment Of Nanocoatings for Ultra Supercritical Boilers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David W. Gandy; John P. Shingledecker

    2011-04-11

    Forced outages and boiler unavailability in conventional coal-fired fossil power plants is most often caused by fireside corrosion of boiler waterwalls. Industry-wide, the rate of wall thickness corrosion wastage of fireside waterwalls in fossil-fired boilers has been of concern for many years. It is significant that the introduction of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission controls with staged burners systems has increased reported waterwall wastage rates to as much as 120 mils (3 mm) per year. Moreover, the reducing environment produced by the low-NOx combustion process is the primary cause of accelerated corrosion rates of waterwall tubes made of carbon and low alloy steels. Improved coatings, such as the MCrAl nanocoatings evaluated here (where M is Fe, Ni, and Co), are needed to reduce/eliminate waterwall damage in subcritical, supercritical, and ultra-supercritical (USC) boilers. The first two tasks of this six-task project-jointly sponsored by EPRI and the U.S. Department of Energy (DE-FC26-07NT43096)-have focused on computational modeling of an advanced MCrAl nanocoating system and evaluation of two nanocrystalline (iron and nickel base) coatings, which will significantly improve the corrosion and erosion performance of tubing used in USC boilers. The computational model results showed that about 40 wt.% is required in Fe based nanocrystalline coatings for long-term durability, leading to a coating composition of Fe-25Cr-40Ni-10 wt.% Al. In addition, the long term thermal exposure test results further showed accelerated inward diffusion of Al from the nanocrystalline coatings into the substrate. In order to enhance the durability of these coatings, it is necessary to develop a diffusion barrier interlayer coating such TiN and/or AlN. The third task 'Process Advanced MCrAl Nanocoating Systems' of the six-task project jointly sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI and the U.S. Department of Energy (DE-FC26-07NT43096)- has focused on processing of advanced nanocrystalline coating systems and development of diffusion barrier interlayer coatings. Among the diffusion interlayer coatings evaluated, the TiN interlayer coating was found to be the optimum one. This report describes the research conducted under the Task 3 workscope.

  15. Assessment of Drag Models for Geldart A Particles in Bubbling Fluidized Beds

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Estejab, Bahareh; Battaglia, Francine

    2015-10-08

    In order to accurately predict the hydrodynamic behavior of gas and solid phases using an Eulerian–Eulerian approach, it is crucial to use appropriate drag models to capture the correct physics. In this study, the performance of seven drag models for fluidization of Geldart A particles of coal, poplar wood, and their mixtures was assessed. In spite of the previous findings that bode badly for using predominately Geldart B drag models for fine particles, the results of our study revealed that if static regions of mass in the fluidized beds are considered, these drag models work well with Geldart A particles.more »It was found that drag models derived from empirical relationships adopt better with Geldart A particles compared to drag models that were numerically developed. Overall, the Huilin–Gidaspow drag model showed the best performance for both single solid phases and binary mixtures, however, for binary mixtures, Wen–Yu model predictions were also accurate.« less

  16. SUMO, System performance assessment for a high-level nuclear waste repository: Mathematical models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslinger, P.W.; Miley, T.B.; Engel, D.W.; Chamberlain, P.J. II

    1992-09-01

    Following completion of the preliminary risk assessment of the potential Yucca Mountain Site by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) in 1988, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) requested the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL to develop an integrated system model and computer code that provides performance and risk assessment analysis capabilities for a potential high-level nuclear waste repository. The system model that has been developed addresses the cumulative radionuclide release criteria established by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and estimates population risks in terms of dose to humans. The system model embodied in the SUMO (System Unsaturated Model) code will also allow benchmarking of other models being developed for the Yucca Mountain Project. The system model has three natural divisions: (1) source term, (2) far-field transport, and (3) dose to humans. This document gives a detailed description of the mathematics of each of these three divisions. Each of the governing equations employed is based on modeling assumptions that are widely accepted within the scientific community.

  17. Incorporating modeling uncertainties in the assessment of seismic collapse risk of buildings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baker, Jack W.

    Incorporating modeling uncertainties in the assessment of seismic collapse risk of buildings Abbie Carlo Seismic reliability a b s t r a c t The primary goal of seismic provisions in building codes is to protect life safety through the prevention of structural collapse. To evaluate the extent to which current

  18. Assessing Seasonal Confounding and Model Selection Bias in Air Pollution Epidemiology Using Positive and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Washington at Seattle, University of

    Assessing Seasonal Confounding and Model Selection Bias in Air Pollution Epidemiology Using July 15, 1999 #12;Abstract Much of the evidence for health e ects of particulate air pollution has come standards for ambient air pollutants to protect the public from adverse e ects. Much of the evidence for air

  19. Models for Assessing Power Fluctuations from Large Wind Farms N. A. Cutululis1)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    that the active power supplied from the first large 160 MW offshore wind farm in this system, Horns Rev today). Figure 1. Power generation of Horns Rev offshore wind farm and onshore turbines, January 18 2005Models for Assessing Power Fluctuations from Large Wind Farms N. A. Cutululis1) , P. Sørensen1) , A

  20. METHODOLOGY ARTICLE Open Access Quality assessment of protein model-structures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nebel, Jean-Christophe

    METHODOLOGY ARTICLE Open Access Quality assessment of protein model-structures based on structural Background: Experimental determination of protein 3D structures is expensive, time consuming and sometimes impossible. A gap between number of protein structures deposited in the World Wide Protein Data Bank

  1. Arc Fault Risk Assessment and Degradation Model Development for Photovoltaic Connectors

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arc Fault Risk Assessment and Degradation Model Development for Photovoltaic Connectors Benjamin B of photovoltaic installations information necessary to develop a data-driven plan for BOS connector maintenance, reliability I. INTRODUCTION As the reliability of traditional photovoltaic (PV) modules becomes better

  2. Assessing the prospective environmental impacts of photovoltaic systems based on a simplified LCA model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Assessing the prospective environmental impacts of photovoltaic systems based on a simplified LCA model. The latter generates the environmental impacts distribution, representative of the potential the environmental impacts of PV systems are small during their operating phase, they are more significant during

  3. Refinement of weed risk assessments for biofuels using Camelina sativa as a model species

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lawrence, Rick L.

    Refinement of weed risk assessments for biofuels using Camelina sativa as a model species Philip B and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, PO Box 173120, Bozeman, MT 59717-3120, USA Summary 1. Biofuel. However, concerns have been raised on the invasiveness of biofuel feedstocks. Estimating invasion

  4. ASSESSMENT OF THE MODELS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF THE CO2 RELEASES TOXIC EFFECTS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    the global warming due to high concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, in case of massive accidental to specific properties regarding its triple point. Then, this CO2 flakes creation may be followed1 ASSESSMENT OF THE MODELS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF THE CO2 RELEASES TOXIC EFFECTS Frédéric Antoine

  5. Assessing and Modeling Exposure to Indoor Air Pollution among Rural Women in Guatemala

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Assessing and Modeling Exposure to Indoor Air Pollution among Rural Women in Guatemala Lisa pollution in rural areas of developing countries. It is estimated that about half (53%) of all households in the poor countries of Latin American use biofuels (wood, dung and/or crop residues) to cook. Combustion by

  6. Impact Assessment of Satellite-Derived Leaf Area Index Datasets Using a General Circulation Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Xue, Yongkang

    Impact Assessment of Satellite-Derived Leaf Area Index Datasets Using a General Circulation Model the impact of two different remote sensing­derived leaf area index (RSLAI) datasets retrieved from the same using the RSLAI and other satellite-derived land surface products showed sub- stantial improvements

  7. Indoor Air Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Health Modeling and Assessment System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stenner, Robert D.; Hadley, Donald L.; Armstrong, Peter R.; Buck, John W.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.; Janus, Michael C.

    2001-03-01

    Indoor air quality effects on human health are of increasing concern to public health agencies and building owners. The prevention and treatment of 'sick building' syndrome and the spread of air-borne diseases in hospitals, for example, are well known priorities. However, increasing attention is being directed to the vulnerability of our public buildings/places, public security and national defense facilities to terrorist attack or the accidental release of air-borne biological pathogens, harmful chemicals, or radioactive contaminants. The Indoor Air Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Health Modeling and Assessment System (IA-NBC-HMAS) was developed to serve as a health impact analysis tool for use in addressing these concerns. The overall goal was to develop a user-friendly fully functional prototype Health Modeling and Assessment system, which will operate under the PNNL FRAMES system for ease of use and to maximize its integration with other modeling and assessment capabilities accessible within the FRAMES system (e.g., ambient air fate and transport models, water borne fate and transport models, Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic models, etc.). The prototype IA-NBC-HMAS is designed to serve as a functional Health Modeling and Assessment system that can be easily tailored to meet specific building analysis needs of a customer. The prototype system was developed and tested using an actual building (i.e., the Churchville Building located at the Aberdeen Proving Ground) and release scenario (i.e., the release and measurement of tracer materials within the building) to ensure realism and practicality in the design and development of the prototype system. A user-friendly "demo" accompanies this report to allow the reader the opportunity for a "hands on" review of the prototype system's capability.

  8. Annual report, October 1980-September 1981 Multimedia radionuclide exposure assessment modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whelan, G.; Onishi, Y.; Simmons, C.S.; Horst, T.W.; Gupta, S.K.; Orgill, M.M.; Newbill, C.A.

    1982-12-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are jointly developing a methodology for assessing exposures of the air, water, and plants to radionuclides as part of an overall development effort of a radionuclide disposal site evaluation methodology. Work in FY-1981 continued the development of the Multimedia Contaminant Environmental Exposure Assessment (MCEA) methodology and initiated an assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons, New Mexico, using the methodology. The AIRTRAN model was completed, briefly tested, and documented. In addition, a literature search for existing validation data for AIRTRAN was performed. The feasibility and advisability of including the UNSAT moisture flow model as a submodel of the terrestrial code BIOTRAN was assessed. A preliminary application of the proposed MCEA methodology, as it related to the Mortandad-South Mortandad Canyon site in New Mexico is discussed. This preliminary application represented a scaled-down version of the methodology in which only the terrestrial, overland, and surface water components were used. An update describing the progress in the assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons is presented. 38 references, 47 figures, 11 tables.

  9. An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Randerson, James T [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Bonan, Gordon [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Erickson III, David J [ORNL; Fung, Inez [University of California, Berkeley

    2009-12-01

    The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons of the CLM3 offline results against observational datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). CLM version 4 has been evaluated using C-LAMP, showing improvement in many of the metrics. Efforts are now underway to initiate a Nitrogen-Land Model Intercomparison Project (N-LAMP) to better constrain the effects of the nitrogen cycle in biosphere models. Presented will be new results from C-LAMP for CLM4, initial N-LAMP developments, and the proposed land-biosphere model benchmarking activity.

  10. MODEL-BASED HYDROACOUSTIC BLOCKAGE ASSESSMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPLOSIVE SOURCE DATABASE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matzel, E; Ramirez, A; Harben, P

    2005-07-11

    We are continuing the development of the Hydroacoustic Blockage Assessment Tool (HABAT) which is designed for use by analysts to predict which hydroacoustic monitoring stations can be used in discrimination analysis for any particular event. The research involves two approaches (1) model-based assessment of blockage, and (2) ground-truth data-based assessment of blockage. The tool presents the analyst with a map of the world, and plots raypath blockages from stations to sources. The analyst inputs source locations and blockage criteria, and the tool returns a list of blockage status from all source locations to all hydroacoustic stations. We are currently using the tool in an assessment of blockage criteria for simple direct-path arrivals. Hydroacoustic data, predominantly from earthquake sources, are read in and assessed for blockage at all available stations. Several measures are taken. First, can the event be observed at a station above background noise? Second, can we establish backazimuth from the station to the source. Third, how large is the decibel drop at one station relative to other stations. These observational results are then compared with model estimates to identify the best set of blockage criteria and used to create a set of blockage maps for each station. The model-based estimates are currently limited by the coarse bathymetry of existing databases and by the limitations inherent in the raytrace method. In collaboration with BBN Inc., the Hydroacoustic Coverage Assessment Model (HydroCAM) that generates the blockage files that serve as input to HABAT, is being extended to include high-resolution bathymetry databases in key areas that increase model-based blockage assessment reliability. An important aspect of this capability is to eventually include reflected T-phases where they reliably occur and to identify the associated reflectors. To assess how well any given hydroacoustic discriminant works in separating earthquake and in-water explosion populations it is necessary to have both a database of reference earthquake events and of reference in-water explosive events. Although reference earthquake events are readily available, explosive reference events are not. Consequently, building an in-water explosion reference database requires the compilation of events from many sources spanning a long period of time. We have developed a database of small implosive and explosive reference events from the 2003 Indian Ocean Cruise data. These events were recorded at some or all of the IMS Indian Ocean hydroacoustic stations: Diego Garcia, Cape Leeuwin, and Crozet Island. We have also reviewed many historical large in-water explosions and identified five that have adequate source information and can be positively associated to the hydrophone recordings. The five events are: Cannekin, Longshot, CHASE-3, CHASE-5, and IITRI-1. Of these, the first two are nuclear tests on land but near water. The latter three are in-water conventional explosive events with yields from ten to hundreds of tons TNT equivalent. The objective of this research is to enhance discrimination capabilities for events located in the world's oceans. Two research and development efforts are needed to achieve this: (1) improvement in discrimination algorithms and their joint statistical application to events, and (2) development of an automated and accurate blockage prediction capability that will identify all stations and phases (direct and reflected) from a given event that will have adequate signal to be used in a discrimination analysis. The strategy for improving blockage prediction in the world's oceans is to improve model-based prediction of blockage and to develop a ground-truth database of reference events to assess blockage. Currently, research is focused on the development of a blockage assessment software tool. The tool is envisioned to develop into a sophisticated and unifying package that optimally and automatically assesses both model and data based blockage predictions in all ocean basins, for all NDC stations, and accounting for refle

  11. Modeling of Tsunami Propagation in the Atlantic Ocean Basin for Tsunami Hazard Assessment along the North Shore of Hispaniola

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grilli, Stéphan T.

    Modeling of Tsunami Propagation in the Atlantic Ocean Basin for Tsunami Hazard Assessment along to estimating future seismic and tsunami hazard in Hispaniola. In 2013, the UNESCO commissioned initial modeling studies to assess tsunami hazard along the North shore of Hispaniola (NSOH), which is shared

  12. On the Use of Computational Models for Wave Climate Assessment in Support of the Wave Energy Industry

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Victoria, University of

    On the Use of Computational Models for Wave Climate Assessment in Support of the Wave Energy On the Use of Computational Models for Wave Climate Assessment in Support of the Wave Energy Industry Effective, economic extraction of ocean wave energy requires an intimate under- standing of the ocean wave

  13. Analysis report for WIPP colloid model constraints and performance assessment parameters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mariner, Paul E.; Sassani, David Carl

    2014-03-01

    An analysis of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) colloid model constraints and parameter values was performed. The focus of this work was primarily on intrinsic colloids, mineral fragment colloids, and humic substance colloids, with a lesser focus on microbial colloids. Comments by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) concerning intrinsic Th(IV) colloids and Mg-Cl-OH mineral fragment colloids were addressed in detail, assumptions and data used to constrain colloid model calculations were evaluated, and inconsistencies between data and model parameter values were identified. This work resulted in a list of specific conclusions regarding model integrity, model conservatism, and opportunities for improvement related to each of the four colloid types included in the WIPP performance assessment.

  14. Model Components of the Certification Framework for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Bryant, Steven L.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Kumar, Navanit; Zhang, Yingqi; Jordan, Preston; Pan, Lehua; Granvold, Patrick; Chow, Fotini K.

    2009-06-01

    We have developed a framework for assessing the leakage risk of geologic carbon sequestration sites. This framework, known as the Certification Framework (CF), emphasizes wells and faults as the primary potential leakage conduits. Vulnerable resources are grouped into compartments, and impacts due to leakage are quantified by the leakage flux or concentrations that could potentially occur in compartments under various scenarios. The CF utilizes several model components to simulate leakage scenarios. One model component is a catalog of results of reservoir simulations that can be queried to estimate plume travel distances and times, rather than requiring CF users to run new reservoir simulations for each case. Other model components developed for the CF and described here include fault characterization using fault-population statistics; fault connection probability using fuzzy rules; well-flow modeling with a drift-flux model implemented in TOUGH2; and atmospheric dense-gas dispersion using a mesoscale weather prediction code.

  15. Probing Students' Ideas about Models Using Standards-Based Assessment Items Ted Willard and Jo Ellen Roseman

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Probing Students' Ideas about Models Using Standards-Based Assessment Items Ted Willard and Jo half believe that events and processes can be modeled. In addition, our data indicate that about behaves is often based on conceptual models. Engineers frequently build and test models as part

  16. Performance Assessment Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses of Generic Disposal System Concepts.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sevougian, S. David; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Gardner, William Payton; Hammond, Glenn Edward; Mariner, Paul

    2014-09-01

    directly, rather than through simplified abstractions. It also a llows for complex representations of the source term, e.g., the explicit representation of many individual waste packages (i.e., meter - scale detail of an entire waste emplacement drift). This report fulfills the Generic Disposal System Analysis Work Packa ge Level 3 Milestone - Performance Assessment Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses of Generic Disposal System Concepts (M 3 FT - 1 4 SN08080 3 2 ).

  17. Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tavoni, Massimo; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Aboumahboub, Tino; Bowen, Alex; Calvin, Katherine V.; Campiglio, Emanuele; Kober, Tom; Jewell, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David; van Sluisveld, Mariesse; Zimmer, Anne; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2014-12-15

    Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

  18. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The component’s fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRC’s ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  19. Models for Assessment of the environmental impact of Radioactive releases from CERN facilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vojtyla, P

    2002-01-01

    The document describes generic models for environmental impact assessment of radioactive releases from CERN facilities. Except for few models developed in the TIS Division, the models are based on the 1997 Swiss directive HSK-R-41 and on the 2001 IAEA Safety Report No. 19. The writing style is descriptive, facilitating the practical implementation of the models at CERN. There are four scenarios assumed for airborne releases: (1) short-term releases for release limit calcu¬lations, (2) actual short-term releases, (3) short-term releases during incidents/accidents, and (4) chronic long-term releases during the normal operation of a facility. For water releases, two scenarios are considered: (1) a release into a river, and (2) a release into a water treatment plant. The document shall be understood as a reference for specific environmental studies involving radioactive releases and as a recommendation of the TIS Division.

  20. Models for environmental impact assessments of releases of radioactive substances from CERN facilities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vojtyla, P

    2005-01-01

    The document describes generic models for environmental impact assessments of releases of radioactive substances from CERN facilities. Except for few models developed in the Safety Commission, the models are based on the 1997 Swiss directive HSK-R-41 and on the 2001 IAEA Safety Report No. 19. The writing style is descriptive, facilitating the practical implementation of the models at CERN. There are four scenarios assumed for airborne releases: (1) short-term releases for release limit calculations, (2) actual short-term releases, (3) short-term releases during incidents/accidents, and (4) chronic long-term releases during the normal operation of a facility. For water releases, two scenarios are considered: (1) a release into a river, and (2) a release into a water treatment plant. The document shall be understood as a reference for specific environmental studies involving radioactive releases and as a recommendation of the Safety Commission.

  1. An Integrated Model for Assessment of Sustainable Agricultural Residue Removal Limits for Bioenergy Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D. Muth; K. M. Bryden

    2003-12-01

    Agricultural residues have been identified as a significant potential resource for bioenergy production, but serious questions remain about the sustainability of harvesting residues. Agricultural residues play an important role in limiting soil erosion from wind and water and in maintaining soil organic carbon. Because of this, multiple factors must be considered when assessing sustainable residue harvest limits. Validated and accepted modeling tools for assessing these impacts include the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation Version 2 (RUSLE2), the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS), and the Soil Conditioning Index. Currently, these models do not work together as a single integrated model. Rather, use of these models requires manual interaction and data transfer. As a result, it is currently not feasible to use these computational tools to perform detailed sustainable agricultural residue availability assessments across large spatial domains or to consider a broad range of land management practices. This paper presents an integrated modeling strategy that couples existing datasets with the RUSLE2 water erosion, WEPS wind erosion, and Soil Conditioning Index soil carbon modeling tools to create a single integrated residue removal modeling system. This enables the exploration of the detailed sustainable residue harvest scenarios needed to establish sustainable residue availability. Using this computational tool, an assessment study of residue availability for the state of Iowa was performed. This study included all soil types in the state of Iowa, four representative crop rotation schemes, variable crop yields, three tillage management methods, and five residue removal methods. The key conclusions of this study are that under current management practices and crop yields nearly 26.5 million Mg of agricultural residue are sustainably accessible in the state of Iowa, and that through the adoption of no till practices residue removal could sustainably approach 40 million Mg. However, when considering the economics and logistics of residue harvest, yields below 2.25 Mg ha-1 are generally considered to not be viable for a commercial bioenergy system. Applying this constraint, the total agricultural residue resource available in Iowa under current management practices is 19 million Mg. Previously published results have shown residue availability from 22 million Mg to over 50 million Mg in Iowa.

  2. Soil-to-Plant Concentration Ratios for Assessing Food Chain Pathways in Biosphere Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Fellows, Robert J.; Krupka, Kenneth M.

    2007-10-01

    This report describes work performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report summarizes characteristics of samples of soils and groundwater from three geographical regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and analyses performed to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Because the uptake and behavior of radionuclides in plant roots, plant leaves, and animal products depends on the chemistry of the water and soil coming in contact with plants and animals, water and soil samples collected from these regions of the United States were used in experiments at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to determine radionuclide soil-to-plant concentration ratios. Crops and forage used in the experiments were grown in the soils, and long-lived radionuclides introduced into the groundwater provide the contaminated water used to water the grown plants. The radionuclides evaluated include 99Tc, 238Pu, and 241Am. Plant varieties include alfalfa, corn, onion, and potato. The radionuclide uptake results from this research study show how regional variations in water quality and soil chemistry affect radionuclide uptake. Section 3 summarizes the procedures and results of the uptake experiments, and relates the soil-to-plant uptake factors derived. In Section 4, the results found in this study are compared with similar values found in the biosphere modeling literature; the study’s results are generally in line with current literature, but soil- and plant-specific differences are noticeable. This food-chain pathway data may be used by the NRC staff to assess dose to persons in the reference biosphere (e.g., persons who live and work in an area potentially affected by radionuclide releases) of waste disposal facilities and decommissioning sites.

  3. Coupling GIS and LCA for biodiversity assessments of land use: Part 1: Inventory modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Geyer, Roland; Stoms, David M.; Lindner, Jan P.; Davis, Frank W.; Wittstock, Bastian

    2010-01-01

    explicit manner, while life cycle assessment (LCA) does notand system extension of life-cycle assessment studies. J Ind2002) Handbook on life cycle assessment, operational guide

  4. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for BWR Shutdown Modes 4 and 5 Integrated in SPAR Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. T. Khericha; S. Sancakter; J. Mitman; J. Wood

    2010-06-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during modes 4, 5, and 6 can be significant This paper describes development of the standard template risk evaluation models for shutdown modes 4, and 5 for commercial boiling water nuclear power plants (BWR). The shutdown probabilistic risk assessment model uses full power Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The shutdown PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from SPAR full power model with shutdown event tree logic. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheet, including the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate HEP of interest. The preliminary results indicate the risk is dominated by the operator’s ability to diagnose the events and provide long term cooling.

  5. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of demands to river basins to create hydro-economic zones that respect as much as possible both political and hydrologic integrity in different models. - To minimize pre-processing of data and add increased flexibility to modeling water resources and uses, it is recommended that water withdrawal demands be modeled, not consumptive requirements even though this makes the IAM more complex. - IAMs must consider changes in water availability for irrigation under climate change; ignoring them is more inaccurate than ignoring yield changes in crops under climate change. - Determining water availability and cost in river basins must include modeling streamflows, reservoirs and their operations, and ground water and its interaction with surface water. - Scale issues are important. The results from condensing demands and supplies in a large complex river basin to one node can be misleading for all uses under low flow conditions and instream flow uses under all conditions. Monthly is generally the most accurate scale for modeling river flows and demands. Challenges remain in integrating hydrologic units with political boundaries but the gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with political boundaries. - Using minimal reservoir cost data, it is possible to use basin topography to estimate reservoir storage costs. - Reservoir evaporation must be considered when assessing the usable water in a watershed. Several methods are available to estimate the relationship between aggregated storage surface area and storage volume. - For existing or future IAMs that can not use the appropriate aggregation for water, a water preprocessor may be required due the finer scale of hydrologic impacts.

  6. Review of uncertainty estimates associated with models for assessing the impact of breeder reactor radioactivity releases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, C.; Little, C.A.

    1982-08-01

    The purpose is to summarize estimates based on currently available data of the uncertainty associated with radiological assessment models. The models being examined herein are those recommended previously for use in breeder reactor assessments. Uncertainty estimates are presented for models of atmospheric and hydrologic transport, terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and internal and external dosimetry. Both long-term and short-term release conditions are discussed. The uncertainty estimates presented in this report indicate that, for many sites, generic models and representative parameter values may be used to calculate doses from annual average radionuclide releases when these calculated doses are on the order of one-tenth or less of a relevant dose limit. For short-term, accidental releases, especially those from breeder reactors located in sites dominated by complex terrain and/or coastal meteorology, the uncertainty in the dose calculations may be much larger than an order of magnitude. As a result, it may be necessary to incorporate site-specific information into the dose calculation under these circumstances to reduce this uncertainty. However, even using site-specific information, natural variability and the uncertainties in the dose conversion factor will likely result in an overall uncertainty of greater than an order of magnitude for predictions of dose or concentration in environmental media following shortterm releases.

  7. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  8. Polarizabilities of Carbon Dioxide and Carbodiimide. Assessment of Theoretical Model Dependencies on Dipole Polarizabilities and Dipole Polarizability Anisotropies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lewis, Michael

    Polarizabilities of Carbon Dioxide and Carbodiimide. Assessment of Theoretical Model DependenciesVed: August 10, 2000; In Final Form: September 19, 2000 The atomic polarizabilities of carbon dioxide and polarizabilities R, R, and are known for carbon dioxide, and these values are used to assess the accuracy

  9. Abstract Game theoretical models predict that the main function of fighting behaviour is to assess the relative

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kotiaho, Janne S.

    Abstract Game theoretical models predict that the main function of fighting behaviour is to assess the relative fighting ability of opponents. The sequential assessment game has often been used to investigate about fighting ability, and how size and motivation asymmetries affect male fighting behav- iour. We

  10. Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understand from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.

  11. Economic analysis and assessment of syngas production using a modeling approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Hakkwan; Parajuli, Prem B.; Yu, Fei; Columbus, Eugene P.

    2011-08-10

    Economic analysis and modeling are essential and important issues for the development of current feedstock and process technology for bio-gasification. The objective of this study was to develop an economic model and apply to predict the unit cost of syngas production from a micro-scale bio-gasification facility. An economic model was programmed in C++ computer programming language and developed using a parametric cost approach, which included processes to calculate the total capital costs and the total operating costs. The model used measured economic data from the bio-gasification facility at Mississippi State University. The modeling results showed that the unit cost of syngas production was $1.217 for a 60 Nm-3 h-1 capacity bio-gasifier. The operating cost was the major part of the total production cost. The equipment purchase cost and the labor cost were the largest part of the total capital cost and the total operating cost, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that labor costs rank the top as followed by equipment cost, loan life, feedstock cost, interest rate, utility cost, and waste treatment cost. The unit cost of syngas production increased with the increase of all parameters with exception of loan life. The annual cost regarding equipment, labor, feedstock, waste treatment, and utility cost showed a linear relationship with percent changes, while loan life and annual interest rate showed a non-linear relationship. This study provides the useful information for economic analysis and assessment of the syngas production using a modeling approach.

  12. Modeling and Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Sequestration at the Geologic-basin Scale

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Juanes, Ruben

    2013-08-31

    Objectives. The overall objective of this proposal was to develop tools for better understanding, modeling and risk assessment of CO{sub 2} permanence in geologic formations at the geologic basin scale. The main motivation was that carbon capture and storage (CCS) will play an important role as a climate change mitigation technology only if it is deployed at scale of gigatonne per year injections over a period of decades. Continuous injection of this magnitude must be understood at the scale of a geologic basin. Specifically, the technical objectives of this project were: (1) to develop mathematical models of capacity and injectivity at the basin scale; (2) to apply quantitative risk assessment methodologies that will inform on CO{sub 2} permanence; (3) to apply the models to geologic basins across the continental United States. These technical objectives go hand-in-hand with the overarching goals of: (1) advancing the science for deployment of CCS at scale; and (2) contributing to training the next generation of scientists and engineers that will implement and deploy CCS in the United States and elsewhere. Methods. The differentiating factor of this proposal was to perform fundamental research on migration and fate of CO{sub 2} and displaced brine at the geologic basin scale. We developed analytical sharp-interface models of the evolution of CO{sub 2} plumes over the duration of injection (decades) and after injection (centuries). We applied the analytical solutions of CO{sub 2} plume migration and pressure evolution to specific geologic basins, to estimate the maximum footprint of the plume, and the maximum injection rate that can be sustained during a certain injection period without fracturing the caprock. These results have led to more accurate capacity estimates, based on fluid flow dynamics, rather than ad hoc assumptions of an overall “efficiency factor.” We also applied risk assessment methodologies to evaluate the uncertainty in our predictions of storage capacity and leakage rates. This was possible because the analytical mathematical models provide ultrafast forward simulation and they contain few parameters. Impact. The project has been enormously successful both in terms of its scientific output (journal publications) as well as impact in the government and industry. The mathematical models and uncertainty quantification methodologies developed here o?er a physically-based approach for estimating capacity and leakage risk at the basin scale. Our approach may also facilitate deployment of CCS by providing the basis for a simpler and more coherent regulatory structure than an “individual-point-of-injection” permitting approach. It may also lead to better science-based policy for post-closure design and transfer of responsibility to the State.

  13. Uncertainty analysis of an aviation climate model and an aircraft price model for assessment of environmental effects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jun, Mina

    2007-01-01

    Estimating, presenting, and assessing uncertainties are important parts in assessment of a complex system. This thesis focuses on the assessment of uncertainty in the price module and the climate module in the Aviation ...

  14. Preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1992. Volume 3, Model parameters: Sandia WIPP Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-12-29

    This volume documents model parameters chosen as of July 1992 that were used by the Performance Assessment Department of Sandia National Laboratories in its 1992 preliminary performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Ranges and distributions for about 300 modeling parameters in the current secondary data base are presented in tables for the geologic and engineered barriers, global materials (e.g., fluid properties), and agents that act upon the WIPP disposal system such as climate variability and human-intrusion boreholes. The 49 parameters sampled in the 1992 Preliminary Performance Assessment are given special emphasis with tables and graphics that provide insight and sources of data for each parameter.

  15. PORFLOW MODELING FOR A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THE PERFORMANCE OF NEW SALTSTONE DISPOSAL UNIT DESIGNS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, F.

    2012-08-06

    At the request of Savannah River Remediation (SRR), SRNL has analyzed the expected performance obtained from using seven 32 million gallon Saltstone Disposal Units (SDUs) in the Z-Area Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) to store future saltstone grout. The analysis was based on preliminary SDU final design specifications. The analysis used PORFLOW modeling to calculate the release of 20 radionuclides from an SDU and transport of the radionuclides and daughters through the vadose zone. Results from this vadose zone analysis were combined with previously calculated releases from existing saltstone vaults and FDCs and a second PORFLOW model run to calculate aquifer transport to assessment points located along a boundary 100 m from the nearest edge of the SDF sources. Peak concentrations within 12 sectors spaced along the 100 m boundary were determined over a period of evaluation extending 20,000 years after SDF closure cap placement. These peak concentrations were provided to SRR to use as input for dose calculations.

  16. Performance of corrosion inhibiting admixtures for structural concrete -- assessment methods and predictive modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yunovich, M.; Thompson, N.G.

    1998-12-31

    During the past fifteen years corrosion inhibiting admixtures (CIAs) have become increasingly popular for protection of reinforced components of highway bridges and other structures from damage induced by chlorides. However, there remains considerable debate about the benefits of CIAs in concrete. A variety of testing methods to assess the performance of CIA have been reported in the literature, ranging from tests in simulated pore solutions to long-term exposures of concrete slabs. The paper reviews the published techniques and recommends the methods which would make up a comprehensive CIA effectiveness testing program. The results of this set of tests would provide the data which can be used to rank the presently commercially available CIA and future candidate formulations utilizing a proposed predictive model. The model is based on relatively short-term laboratory testing and considers several phases of a service life of a structure (corrosion initiation, corrosion propagation without damage, and damage to the structure).

  17. Quantitative assessment of biological impact using transcriptomic data and mechanistic network models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Ty M. [Selventa, One Alewife Center, Cambridge, MA 02140 (United States); Sewer, Alain, E-mail: Alain.Sewer@pmi.com [Philip Morris International R and D, Philip Morris Products S.A., Quai Jeanrenaud 5, 2000 Neuchâtel (Switzerland); Martin, Florian; Belcastro, Vincenzo [Philip Morris International R and D, Philip Morris Products S.A., Quai Jeanrenaud 5, 2000 Neuchâtel (Switzerland); Frushour, Brian P. [Selventa, One Alewife Center, Cambridge, MA 02140 (United States); Gebel, Stephan [Philip Morris International R and D, Philip Morris Research Laboratories GmbH, Edmund-Rumpler-Strasse 5, 51149 Koeln (Germany); Park, Jennifer [Selventa, One Alewife Center, Cambridge, MA 02140 (United States); Schlage, Walter K. [Philip Morris International R and D, Philip Morris Research Laboratories GmbH, Edmund-Rumpler-Strasse 5, 51149 Koeln (Germany); Talikka, Marja [Philip Morris International R and D, Philip Morris Products S.A., Quai Jeanrenaud 5, 2000 Neuchâtel (Switzerland); Vasilyev, Dmitry M.; Westra, Jurjen W. [Selventa, One Alewife Center, Cambridge, MA 02140 (United States); Hoeng, Julia; Peitsch, Manuel C. [Philip Morris International R and D, Philip Morris Products S.A., Quai Jeanrenaud 5, 2000 Neuchâtel (Switzerland)

    2013-11-01

    Exposure to biologically active substances such as therapeutic drugs or environmental toxicants can impact biological systems at various levels, affecting individual molecules, signaling pathways, and overall cellular processes. The ability to derive mechanistic insights from the resulting system responses requires the integration of experimental measures with a priori knowledge about the system and the interacting molecules therein. We developed a novel systems biology-based methodology that leverages mechanistic network models and transcriptomic data to quantitatively assess the biological impact of exposures to active substances. Hierarchically organized network models were first constructed to provide a coherent framework for investigating the impact of exposures at the molecular, pathway and process levels. We then validated our methodology using novel and previously published experiments. For both in vitro systems with simple exposure and in vivo systems with complex exposures, our methodology was able to recapitulate known biological responses matching expected or measured phenotypes. In addition, the quantitative results were in agreement with experimental endpoint data for many of the mechanistic effects that were assessed, providing further objective confirmation of the approach. We conclude that our methodology evaluates the biological impact of exposures in an objective, systematic, and quantifiable manner, enabling the computation of a systems-wide and pan-mechanistic biological impact measure for a given active substance or mixture. Our results suggest that various fields of human disease research, from drug development to consumer product testing and environmental impact analysis, could benefit from using this methodology. - Highlights: • The impact of biologically active substances is quantified at multiple levels. • The systems-level impact integrates the perturbations of individual networks. • The networks capture the relationships between the biological mechanisms. • Four exposure experiments have been assessed to validate the methodology. • The impact results were consistent with the corresponding phenotypic measures.

  18. The Paradoxes of Military Risk Assessment: Will the Enterprise Risk Assessment Model, Composite Risk Management and Associated

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Johnson, Chris

    Risk Management and Associated Techniques Provide the Predicted Benefits? Chris. W. Johnson, Glasgow: Johnson@dcs.gla.ac.uk; http://www.dcs.gla.ac.uk/~johnson Keywords: Safety; Composite Risk Management, ERAM, Risk Assessment; Military Systems Engineering. Abstract Risk management provides the most important

  19. Framework for Modeling the Uncertainty of Future Events in Life Cycle Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yi-Fen; Simon, Rachel; Dornfeld, David

    2013-01-01

    Recent developments in Life Cycle Assessment, Journal ofThe uncertainty of Life Cycle Assessment is a very importantFuture Events in Life Cycle Assessment Yi-Fen Chen, Rachel

  20. Dose-Response Modeling for Life Cycle Impact Assessment: Findings of the Portland Review Workshop

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McKone, Thomas E.; Kyle, Amy D.; Jolliet, Olivier; Olsen, Stig Irving; Hauschild, Michael

    2006-01-01

    Key References Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a frameworkmeasure of impact in life- cycle assessment? When combiningHealth Response in Life Cycle Assessment Using ED10s and

  1. Framework for Modeling the Uncertainty of Future Events in Life Cycle Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yi-Fen; Simon, Rachel; Dornfeld, David

    2013-01-01

    Recent developments in Life Cycle Assessment, Journal ofFuture Events in Life Cycle Assessment Yi-Fen Chen, RachelOne limitation of Life Cycle Assessment is that it relies on

  2. CONTAIN code analyses of direct containment heating (DCH) experiments: Model assessment and phenomenological interpretation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, D.C.; Griffith, R.O.; Tadios, E.L.; Washington, K.E.

    1995-05-12

    Models for direct containment heating (DCH) in the CONTAIN code for severe accident analysis have been reviewed and a standard input prescription for their use has been defined. The code has been exercised against a large subset of the available DCH data base. Generally good agreement with the experimental results for containment pressurization ({Delta}P) and hydrogen generation has been obtained. Extensive sensitivity studies have been performed which permit assessment of many of the strengths and weaknesses of specific model features. These include models for debris transport and trapping, DCH heat transfer and chemistry, atmosphere-structure heat transfer, interactions between nonairborne debris and blowdown steam, potential effects of debris-water interactions, and hydrogen combustion under DCH conditions. Containment compartmentalization is an important DCH mitigator in the calculations, in agreement with experimental results. The CONTAIN model includes partially parametric treatments for some processes that are not well understood. The importance of the associated uncertainties depends upon the details of the DCH scenario being analyzed. Recommended sensitivity studies are summarized that allow the user to obtain a reasonable estimate of the uncertainties in the calculated results.

  3. Proceedings of the 2007 Aging Aircraft Conference Cost Model for Assessing the Transition to Lead-Free Electronics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sandborn, Peter

    Proceedings of the 2007 Aging Aircraft Conference Cost Model for Assessing the Transition to Lead the cost ramifications of the transition from tin- lead to lead-free electronic parts. All tin-lead, all lead-free and mixed assembly approaches are considered. The model makes basic assumptions of a fixed

  4. Recommended Method To Account For Daughter Ingrowth For The Portsmouth On-Site Waste Disposal Facility Performance Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phifer, Mark A.; Smith, Frank G. III

    2013-06-21

    A 3-D STOMP model has been developed for the Portsmouth On-Site Waste Disposal Facility (OSWDF) at Site D as outlined in Appendix K of FBP 2013. This model projects the flow and transport of the following radionuclides to various points of assessments: Tc-99, U-234, U-235, U-236, U-238, Am-241, Np-237, Pu-238, Pu-239, Pu-240, Th-228, and Th-230. The model includes the radioactive decay of these parents, but does not include the associated daughter ingrowth because the STOMP model does not have the capability to model daughter ingrowth. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) provides herein a recommended method to account for daughter ingrowth in association with the Portsmouth OSWDF Performance Assessment (PA) modeling.

  5. SOFTWARE QUALITY ASSURANCE FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT MODELS AT DOE'S SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hunter, C

    2007-12-17

    The Savannah River National Laboratory's (SRNL) Atmospheric Technologies Group develops, maintains, and operates computer-based software applications for use in emergency response consequence assessment at DOE's Savannah River Site. These applications range from straightforward, stand-alone Gaussian dispersion models run with simple meteorological input to complex computational software systems with supporting scripts that simulate highly dynamic atmospheric processes. A software quality assurance program has been developed to ensure appropriate lifecycle management of these software applications. This program was designed to meet fully the overall structure and intent of SRNL's institutional software QA programs, yet remain sufficiently practical to achieve the necessary level of control in a cost-effective manner. A general overview of this program is described.

  6. Extended defense systems :I. adversary-defender modeling grammar for vulnerability analysis and threat assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merkle, Peter Benedict

    2006-03-01

    Vulnerability analysis and threat assessment require systematic treatments of adversary and defender characteristics. This work addresses the need for a formal grammar for the modeling and analysis of adversary and defender engagements of interest to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Analytical methods treating both linguistic and numerical information should ensure that neither aspect has disproportionate influence on assessment outcomes. The adversary-defender modeling (ADM) grammar employs classical set theory and notation. It is designed to incorporate contributions from subject matter experts in all relevant disciplines, without bias. The Attack Scenario Space U{sub S} is the set universe of all scenarios possible under physical laws. An attack scenario is a postulated event consisting of the active engagement of at least one adversary with at least one defended target. Target Information Space I{sub S} is the universe of information about targets and defenders. Adversary and defender groups are described by their respective Character super-sets, (A){sub P} and (D){sub F}. Each super-set contains six elements: Objectives, Knowledge, Veracity, Plans, Resources, and Skills. The Objectives are the desired end-state outcomes. Knowledge is comprised of empirical and theoretical a priori knowledge and emergent knowledge (learned during an attack), while Veracity is the correspondence of Knowledge with fact or outcome. Plans are ordered activity-task sequences (tuples) with logical contingencies. Resources are the a priori and opportunistic physical assets and intangible attributes applied to the execution of associated Plans elements. Skills for both adversary and defender include the assumed general and task competencies for the associated plan set, the realized value of competence in execution or exercise, and the opponent's planning assumption of the task competence.

  7. Detailed Modeling of Industrial Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in an Integrated Assessment Model of Long-term Global Change 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sinha, P.; Wise, M.; Smith, S.

    2006-01-01

    Conference 2006 Session 11 – Industrial Energy Modeling: What is the State of the Art? Detailed Modeling of Industrial Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in an Integrated Assessment Model of Long-term Global Change ParamitaSinha 1 MarshallWise 2* ,and...StevenSmith 2 1 UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark. 2 PacificNorthwestNationalLaboratory,JointGlobalChangeResearch Institute,CollegePark,MD. 1. Introduction Thispaperpresentsanewapproachtounderstandingthepotentiallong-termevolutionofenergy demandsinthe...

  8. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 4: The DBEDT DSM assessment model user`s manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DBEDT DSM Assessment Model (DSAM) is a spreadsheet model developed in Quattro Pro for Windows that is based on the integration of the DBEDT energy forecasting model, ENERGY 2020, with the output from the building energy use simulation model, DOE-2. DOE-2 provides DSM impact estimates for both energy and peak demand. The ``User`s Guide`` is designed to assist DBEDT staff in the operation of DSAM. Supporting information on model structure and data inputs are provided in Volumes 2 and 3 of the Final Report. DSAM is designed to provide DBEDT estimates of the potential DSM resource for each county in Hawaii by measure, program, sector, year, and levelized cost category. The results are provided for gas and electric and for both energy and peak demand. There are two main portions of DSAM, the residential sector and the commercial sector. The basic underlying logic for both sectors are the same. However, there are some modeling differences between the two sectors. The differences are primarily the result of (1) the more complex nature of the commercial sector, (2) memory limitations within Quattro Pro, and (3) the fact that the commercial sector portion of the model was written four months after the residential sector portion. The structure for both sectors essentially consists of a series of input spreadsheets, the portion of the model where the calculations are performed, and a series of output spreadsheets. The output spreadsheets contain both detailed and summary tables and graphs.

  9. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN APPLICATIONS FOR MODELING AND ASSESSING CARBON DIOXIDE SEQUESTRATION IN SALINE AQUIFERS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, John

    2014-08-31

    This project was a computer modeling effort to couple reservoir simulation and ED/RSM using Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Analysis, and Optimization Methods, to assess geologic, geochemical, geomechanical, and rock-fluid effects and factors on CO2 injectivity, capacity, and plume migration. The project objective was to develop proxy models to simplify the highly complex coupled geochemical and geomechanical models in the utilization and storage of CO2 in the subsurface. The goals were to investigate and prove the feasibility of the ED/RSM processes and engineering development, and bridge the gaps regarding the uncertainty and unknowns of the many geochemical and geomechanical interacting parameters in the development and operation of anthropogenic CO2 sequestration and storage sites. The bottleneck in this workflow is the high computational effort of reactive transport simulation models and large number of input variables to optimize with ED/RSM techniques. The project was not to develop the reactive transport, geomechanical, or ED/RSM software, but was to use what was commercially and/or publically available as a proof of concept to generate proxy or surrogate models. A detailed geologic and petrographic mineral assemblage and geologic structure of the doubly plunging anticline was defined using the USDOE RMOTC formations of interest data (e.g., Lower Sundance, Crow Mountain, Alcova Limestone, and Red Peak). The assemblage of 23 minerals was primarily developed from literature data and petrophysical (well log) analysis. The assemblage and structure was input into a commercial reactive transport simulator to predict the effects of CO2 injection and complex reactions with the reservoir rock. Significant impediments were encountered during the execution phase of the project. The only known commercial reactive transport simulator was incapable of simulating complex geochemistry modeled in this project. Significant effort and project funding was expended to determine the limitations of both the commercial simulator and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) R&D simulator, TOUGHREACT available to the project. A simplified layer cake model approximating the volume of the RMOTC targeted reservoirs was defined with 1-3 minerals eventually modeled with limited success. Modeling reactive transport in porous media requires significant computational power. In this project, up to 24 processors were used to model a limited mineral set of 1-3 minerals. In addition, geomechanical aspects of injecting CO2 into closed, semi-open, and open systems in various well completion methods was simulated. Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) as a storage method was not modeled. A robust and stable simulation dataset or base case was developed and used to create a master dataset with embedded instructions for input to the ED/RSM software. Little success was achieved toward the objective of the project using the commercial simulator or the LBNL simulator versions available during the time of this project. Several hundred realizations were run with the commercial simulator and ED/RSM software, most having convergence problems and terminating prematurely. A proxy model for full field CO2 injection sequestration utilization and storage was not capable of being developed with software available for this project. Though the chemistry is reasonably known and understood, based on the amount of effort and huge computational time required, predicting CO2 sequestration storage capacity in geologic formations to within the program goals of ±30% proved unsuccessful.

  10. Assessment of CCFL model of RELAP5/MOD3 against simple vertical tubes and rod bundle tests. International Agreement Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cho, S.; Arne, N.; Chung, B.D.; Kim, H.J.

    1993-06-01

    The CCFL model used in RELAP5/MOD3 version 5m5 has been assessed against simple vertical tubes and bundle tests performed at a facility of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. The effect of changes in tube diameter and nodalization of tube section were investigated. The roles of interfacial drags on the flooding characteristics are discussed. Differences between the calculation and the experiment are also discussed. A comparison between model assessment results and the test data showed that the calculated value lay well on the experimental flooding curve specified by user, but the pressure jump before onset of flooding was not calculated.

  11. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  12. Coupling GIS and LCA for biodiversity assessments of land use: Part 1: Inventory modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Geyer, Roland; Stoms, David M.; Lindner, Jan P.; Davis, Frank W.; Wittstock, Bastian

    2010-01-01

    467 DOI 10.1007/s11367-010-0170-9 LAND USE IN LCA CouplingGIS and LCA for biodiversity assessments of land use Part 1:while life cycle assessment (LCA) does not conventionally

  13. Linking RESRAD-OFFSITE and HYDROGEOCHEM Model for Performance Assessment of Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility - 13429

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Wen-Sheng [Hydrotech Research Institute, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China)] [Hydrotech Research Institute, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Yu, Charley; Cheng, Jing-Jy; Kamboj, Sunita; Gnanapragasam, Emmanuel [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States)] [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States); Liu, Chen-Wuing [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China)] [Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Li, Ming-Hsu [Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan (China)] [Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan (China)

    2013-07-01

    Performance assessments are crucial steps for the long-term radiological safety requirements of low-level waste (LLW) disposal facility. How much concentration of radionuclides released from the near-field to biosphere and what radiation exposure levels of an individual can influence on the satisfactory performance of the LLW disposal facility and safety disposal environment. Performance assessment methodology for the radioactive waste disposal consists of the reactive transport modeling of safety-concerned radionuclides released from the near-field to the far-field, and the potential exposure pathways and the movements of radionuclides through the geosphere, biosphere and man of which the accompanying dose. Therefore, the integration of hydrogeochemical transport model and dose assessment code, HYDROGEOCHEM code and RESRAD family of codes is imperative. The RESRAD family of codes such as RESRAD-OFFSITE computer code can evaluate the radiological dose and excess cancer risk to an individual who is exposed while located within or outside the area of initial (primary) contamination. The HYDROGEOCHEM is a 3-D numerical model of fluid flow, thermal, hydrologic transport, and biogeochemical kinetic and equilibrium reactions in saturated and unsaturated media. The HYDROGEOCHEM model can also simulate the crucial geochemical mechanism, such as the effect of redox processes on the adsorption/desorption, hydrogeochemical influences on concrete degradation, adsorption/desorption of radionuclides (i.e., surface complexation model) between solid and liquid phase in geochemically dynamic environments. To investigate the safety assessment of LLW disposal facility, linking RESRAD-OFFSITE and HYDROGEOCHEM model can provide detailed tools of confidence in the protectiveness of the human health and environmental impact for safety assessment of LLW disposal facility. (authors)

  14. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  15. Preliminary Review of Models, Assumptions, and Key Data used in Performance Assessments and Composite Analysis at the Idaho National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arthur S. Rood; Swen O. Magnuson

    2009-07-01

    This document is in response to a request by Ming Zhu, DOE-EM to provide a preliminary review of existing models and data used in completed or soon to be completed Performance Assessments and Composite Analyses (PA/CA) documents, to identify codes, methodologies, main assumptions, and key data sets used.

  16. Performance Assessment Transport Modeling of Uranium at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site at the Nevada National Security Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NSTec Radioactive Waste

    2010-10-12

    Following is a brief summary of the assumptions that are pertinent to the radioactive isotope transport in the GoldSim Performance Assessment model of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, with special emphasis on the water-phase reactive transport of uranium, which includes depleted uranium products.

  17. Supply Chain Performance Assessment and Supplier and Component Importance Identification General Competitive Multitiered Supply Chain Network Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chain Performance Assessment and Supplier and Component Importance Identification competitive supply chain network game theory model, which includes the supplier tier. The firms components from one or more suppliers, who also are capacitated. The firms compete in a Cournot-Nash fashion

  18. ASSESSMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wong, Pak Kin

    SERVICE CLIMATE CHANGE & CULTURAL RESOURCE PLANNING PROGRAM 17 EARTH SYSTEM MODELS 18 CLIMATE ASSESSMENTS

  19. Modeling and comparative assessment of municipal solid waste gasification for energy production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arafat, Hassan A. Jijakli, Kenan

    2013-08-15

    Highlights: • Study developed a methodology for the evaluation of gasification for MSW treatment. • Study was conducted comparatively for USA, UAE, and Thailand. • Study applies a thermodynamic model (Gibbs free energy minimization) using the Gasify software. • The energy efficiency of the process and the compatibility with different waste streams was studied. - Abstract: Gasification is the thermochemical conversion of organic feedstocks mainly into combustible syngas (CO and H{sub 2}) along with other constituents. It has been widely used to convert coal into gaseous energy carriers but only has been recently looked at as a process for producing energy from biomass. This study explores the potential of gasification for energy production and treatment of municipal solid waste (MSW). It relies on adapting the theory governing the chemistry and kinetics of the gasification process to the use of MSW as a feedstock to the process. It also relies on an equilibrium kinetics and thermodynamics solver tool (Gasify®) in the process of modeling gasification of MSW. The effect of process temperature variation on gasifying MSW was explored and the results were compared to incineration as an alternative to gasification of MSW. Also, the assessment was performed comparatively for gasification of MSW in the United Arab Emirates, USA, and Thailand, presenting a spectrum of socioeconomic settings with varying MSW compositions in order to explore the effect of MSW composition variance on the products of gasification. All in all, this study provides an insight into the potential of gasification for the treatment of MSW and as a waste to energy alternative to incineration.

  20. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Schlicher, Bob G

    2015-01-01

    There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated the cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.

  1. Framework for Modeling the Uncertainty of Future Events in Life Cycle Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yi-Fen; Simon, Rachel; Dornfeld, David

    2013-01-01

    M. , ( 2010), Product carbon footprint (PCF) assessment ofand Pflueger J. , (2012), Carbon footprint of a dell rackin 65% of the product carbon footprint of a laptop used in

  2. Framework for Modeling the Uncertainty of Future Events in Life Cycle Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Yi-Fen; Simon, Rachel; Dornfeld, David

    2013-01-01

    event scenarios could alter LCA result. REFERENCES SchweimerEconomic- balance hybrid LCA extended with uncertaintyLife Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a leading technique used to

  3. Model Components of the Certification Framework for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.

    2009-01-01

    to two geologic carbon sequestration sites, Energy Procedia,for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Based on Effectivefor geologic carbon sequestration risk assessment, Energy

  4. Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the Cement Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sathaye, J.; Xu, T.; Galitsky, C.

    2010-08-15

    Adoption of efficient end-use technologies is one of the key measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. How to effectively analyze and manage the costs associated with GHG reductions becomes extremely important for the industry and policy makers around the world. Energy-climate (EC) models are often used for analyzing the costs of reducing GHG emissions for various emission-reduction measures, because an accurate estimation of these costs is critical for identifying and choosing optimal emission reduction measures, and for developing related policy options to accelerate market adoption and technology implementation. However, accuracies of assessing of GHG-emission reduction costs by taking into account the adoption of energy efficiency technologies will depend on how well these end-use technologies are represented in integrated assessment models (IAM) and other energy-climate models.

  5. Systematic assessment of terrestrial biogeochemistry in coupled climate-carbon models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2009-01-01

    coming from earth system models performing simulations forecological and earth system observations. Model results fromEarth System Grid. Keywords: ameriflux, atmospheric tracer transport model

  6. Validity and sensitivity of a model for assessment of impacts of river floodplain reconstruction on protected and endangered species

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nooij, R.J.W. de [Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Wetland and Water Research, Faculty of Science, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen (Netherlands) and Netherlands Centre for River Studies (NCR), P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft (Netherlands)]. E-mail: R.deNooij@science.ru.nl; Lotterman, K.M. [Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Wetland and Water Research, Faculty of Science, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen (Netherlands); Sande, P.H.J. van de [Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Wetland and Water Research, Faculty of Science, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen (Netherlands); Pelsma, T. [Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment (RIZA), P.O. Box 17, 8200 AA Lelystad (Netherlands); Netherlands Centre for River Studies (NCR), P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft (Netherlands); Leuven, R.S.E.W. [Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Wetland and Water Research, Faculty of Science, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen (Netherlands); Netherlands Centre for River Studies (NCR), P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft (Netherlands); Lenders, H.J.R. [Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Wetland and Water Research, Faculty of Science, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen (Netherlands); Netherlands Centre for River Studies (NCR), P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft (Netherlands)

    2006-11-15

    Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) must account for legally protected and endangered species. Uncertainties relating to the validity and sensitivity of EIA arise from predictions and valuation of effects on these species. This paper presents a validity and sensitivity analysis of a model (BIO-SAFE) for assessment of impacts of land use changes and physical reconstruction measures on legally protected and endangered river species. The assessment is based on links between species (higher plants, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, butterflies and dragon- and damselflies) and ecotopes (landscape ecological units, e.g., river dune, soft wood alluvial forests), and on value assignment to protected and endangered species using different valuation criteria (i.e., EU Habitats and Birds directive, Conventions of Bern and Bonn and Red Lists). The validity of BIO-SAFE has been tested by comparing predicted effects of landscape changes on the diversity of protected and endangered species with observed changes in biodiversity in five reconstructed floodplains. The sensitivity of BIO-SAFE to value assignment has been analysed using data of a Strategic Environmental Assessment concerning the Spatial Planning Key Decision for reconstruction of the Dutch floodplains of the river Rhine, aimed at flood defence and ecological rehabilitation. The weights given to the valuation criteria for protected and endangered species were varied and the effects on ranking of alternatives were quantified. A statistically significant correlation (p < 0.01) between predicted and observed values for protected and endangered species was found. The sensitivity of the model to value assignment proved to be low. Comparison of five realistic valuation options showed that different rankings of scenarios predominantly occur when valuation criteria are left out of the assessment. Based on these results we conclude that linking species to ecotopes can be used for adequate impact assessments. Quantification of sensitivity of impact assessment to value assignment shows that a model like BIO-SAFE is relatively insensitive to assignment of values to different policy and legislation based criteria. Arbitrariness of the value assignment therefore has a very limited effect on assessment outcomes. However, the decision to include valuation criteria or not is very important.

  7. An assessment of possible climate change in the Australian region based on intercomparison of general circulation modeling results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whetton, P.H.; Pittock, A.B.; Haylock, M.R. ); Rayner, P.J. )

    1994-03-01

    To assist in estimating likely future climate change in the Australian region, the authors examine the results of four different general circulation modeling experiments run to assess the equilibrium impact of doubling greenhouse gases. The results examined were the most recent available at the time of study from various research centers in North America and Europe, as well as those of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The approach used is, first, to assess the quality of the control (1 x CO[sub 2]) simulations from each of the models of mean sea level (MSL) pressure and precipitation in the Australian region by comparing these with the corresponding observed patterns; and, second, to then analyze the 2 x CO[sub 2] results of only those model experiments with the best control simulations. Of the models examined two are chosen on the basis of their simulation of current climate in the region: the CSIRO four-level model (CSIRO4) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model. For conditions of equivalent doubling of CO[sub 2], both models show substantial increases in surface air temperature of around 4[degrees]-6[degrees] inland and 2[degrees]-4[degrees]C in coastal regions. Both models show decreased MSL pressure over the Australian continent and increases in rainfall over northern, central, and eastern Australia, particularly in the summer half of the year. The CSIRO4 model, but not the UKMO model, also shows increased pressure to the south of the continent and decreased winter rainfall in southwest and southern Australia. Generally, field significance tests show the pattern and magnitude of the changes to be significant of CSIRO4 (for which the necessary monthly simulated data were available). 42 refs., 20 figs., 5 tabs.

  8. Developing an Integrated Model Framework for the Assessment of Sustainable Agricultural Residue Removal Limits for Bioenergy Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David Muth, Jr.; Jared Abodeely; Richard Nelson; Douglas McCorkle; Joshua Koch; Kenneth Bryden

    2011-08-01

    Agricultural residues have significant potential as a feedstock for bioenergy production, but removing these residues can have negative impacts on soil health. Models and datasets that can support decisions about sustainable agricultural residue removal are available; however, no tools currently exist capable of simultaneously addressing all environmental factors that can limit availability of residue. The VE-Suite model integration framework has been used to couple a set of environmental process models to support agricultural residue removal decisions. The RUSLE2, WEPS, and Soil Conditioning Index models have been integrated. A disparate set of databases providing the soils, climate, and management practice data required to run these models have also been integrated. The integrated system has been demonstrated for two example cases. First, an assessment using high spatial fidelity crop yield data has been run for a single farm. This analysis shows the significant variance in sustainably accessible residue across a single farm and crop year. A second example is an aggregate assessment of agricultural residues available in the state of Iowa. This implementation of the integrated systems model demonstrates the capability to run a vast range of scenarios required to represent a large geographic region.

  9. Modifying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to Simulate Cropland Carbon Flux: Model Development and Initial Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Arnold, Jeffrey; Williams, Jimmy R.; Srinivasan, Raghavan

    2013-10-01

    Climate change is one of the most compelling modern issues and has important implications for almost every aspect of natural and human systems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied worldwide to support sustainable land and water management in a changing climate. However, the inadequacies of the existing carbon algorithm in SWAT limit its application in assessing impacts of human activities on CO2 emission, one important source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that traps heat in the earth system and results in global warming. In this research, we incorporate a revised version of the CENTURY carbon model into SWAT to describe dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM)- residue and simulate land-atmosphere carbon exchange.

  10. Modeling mining economics and materials markets to inform criticality assessment and mitigation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Poulizac, Claire Marie Franc?oise

    2013-01-01

    Conventional criticality-assessment methods drawn from the existing literature are often limited to evaluations of scarcity risks, or rely on price as an indicator of criticality. Such approaches, however, are ill-suited ...

  11. Assessment and preliminary model development of shape memory polymers mechanical counter pressure space suits

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wee, Brian (Brian J.)

    2013-01-01

    This thesis seeks to assess the viability of a space qualified shape memory polymer (SMP) mechanical counter pressure (MCP) suit. A key development objective identified by the International Space Exploration Coordination ...

  12. MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment Context and Overview

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  13. Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walker, Stuart A.

    2013-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance and other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)

  14. Development and assessment of a soot emissions model for aircraft gas turbine engines

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Martini, Bastien

    2008-01-01

    Assessing candidate policies designed to address the impact of aviation on the environment requires a simplified method to estimate pollutant emissions for current and future aircraft gas turbine engines under different ...

  15. Statistical model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) in clinical CT systems: Experimental assessment of noise performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Ke; Tang, Jie; Chen, Guang-Hong

    2014-04-15

    Purpose: To reduce radiation dose in CT imaging, the statistical model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) method has been introduced for clinical use. Based on the principle of MBIR and its nonlinear nature, the noise performance of MBIR is expected to be different from that of the well-understood filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction method. The purpose of this work is to experimentally assess the unique noise characteristics of MBIR using a state-of-the-art clinical CT system. Methods: Three physical phantoms, including a water cylinder and two pediatric head phantoms, were scanned in axial scanning mode using a 64-slice CT scanner (Discovery CT750 HD, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, WI) at seven different mAs levels (5, 12.5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 300). At each mAs level, each phantom was repeatedly scanned 50 times to generate an image ensemble for noise analysis. Both the FBP method with a standard kernel and the MBIR method (Veo{sup ®}, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, WI) were used for CT image reconstruction. Three-dimensional (3D) noise power spectrum (NPS), two-dimensional (2D) NPS, and zero-dimensional NPS (noise variance) were assessed both globally and locally. Noise magnitude, noise spatial correlation, noise spatial uniformity and their dose dependence were examined for the two reconstruction methods. Results: (1) At each dose level and at each frequency, the magnitude of the NPS of MBIR was smaller than that of FBP. (2) While the shape of the NPS of FBP was dose-independent, the shape of the NPS of MBIR was strongly dose-dependent; lower dose lead to a “redder” NPS with a lower mean frequency value. (3) The noise standard deviation (?) of MBIR and dose were found to be related through a power law of ????(dose){sup ??} with the component ? ? 0.25, which violated the classical ????(dose){sup ?0.5} power law in FBP. (4) With MBIR, noise reduction was most prominent for thin image slices. (5) MBIR lead to better noise spatial uniformity when compared with FBP. (6) A composite image generated from two MBIR images acquired at two different dose levels (D1 and D2) demonstrated lower noise than that of an image acquired at a dose level of D1+D2. Conclusions: The noise characteristics of the MBIR method are significantly different from those of the FBP method. The well known tradeoff relationship between CT image noise and radiation dose has been modified by MBIR to establish a more gradual dependence of noise on dose. Additionally, some other CT noise properties that had been well understood based on the linear system theory have also been altered by MBIR. Clinical CT scan protocols that had been optimized based on the classical CT noise properties need to be carefully re-evaluated for systems equipped with MBIR in order to maximize the method's potential clinical benefits in dose reduction and/or in CT image quality improvement.

  16. Calibration of an EnergyPlus Building Energy Model to Assess the Impact of Demand Response Measures 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lavigne, K.; Sansregret, S.; Daoud, A.; Leclair, L. A.

    2013-01-01

    Simon Sansregret Ahmed DaoudLouis-Alexandre Leclaire CALIBRATION OF AN ENERGYPLUS BUILDING ENERGY MODEL TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF DEMAND RESPONSE MEASURES ICEBO 2013, Montr?al Groupe ? Technologie2 ICEBO-2013 Contextualization > Hydro..., Static fan pressure, Plug load intensity, etc. > Establish an optimization plan (? ? simulated and measured profiles) ? Parameter selection and their limits ? Calibration period (annual or specific period) ? Objective function and type of algorithm...

  17. Assessment of Dissolved Oxygen Mitigation at Hydropower Dams Using an Integrated Hydrodynamic/Water Quality/Fish Growth Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bevelhimer, Mark S; Coutant, Charles C

    2006-07-01

    Dissolved oxygen (DO) in rivers is a common environmental problem associated with hydropower projects. Approximately 40% of all FERC-licensed projects have requirements to monitor and/or mitigate downstream DO conditions. Most forms of mitigation for increasing DO in dam tailwaters are fairly expensive. One area of research of the Department of Energy's Hydropower Program is the development of advanced turbines that improve downstream water quality and have other environmental benefits. There is great interest in being able to predict the benefits of these modifications prior to committing to the cost of new equipment. In the case of turbine replacement or modification, there is a need for methods that allow us to accurately extrapolate the benefits derived from one or two turbines with better design to the replacement or modification of all turbines at a site. The main objective of our study was to demonstrate a modeling approach that integrates the effects of flow and water quality dynamics with fish bioenergetics to predict DO mitigation effectiveness over long river segments downstream of hydropower dams. We were particularly interested in demonstrating the incremental value of including a fish growth model as a measure of biological response. The models applied are a suite of tools (RMS4 modeling system) originally developed by the Tennessee Valley Authority for simulating hydrodynamics (ADYN model), water quality (RQUAL model), and fish growth (FISH model) as influenced by DO, temperature, and available food base. We parameterized a model for a 26-mile reach of the Caney Fork River (Tennessee) below Center Hill Dam to assess how improvements in DO at the dam discharge would affect water quality and fish growth throughout the river. We simulated different types of mitigation (i.e., at the turbine and in the reservoir forebay) and different levels of improvement. The model application successfully demonstrates how a modeling approach like this one can be used to assess whether a prescribed mitigation is likely to meet intended objectives from both a water quality and a biological resource perspective. These techniques can be used to assess the tradeoffs between hydropower operations, power generation, and environmental quality.

  18. The human toxicity potential and a strategy for evaluating model performance in life-cycle impact assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McKone, Thomas E.; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2001-01-01

    within the framework of life cycle assessment of products.in the Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Research SupportedIntroduction Life cycle assessment (LCA) requires

  19. Coronary Risk Assessment by Point-Based vs. Equation-Based Framingham Models: Significant Implications for Clinical Care

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gordon, William J.; Polansky, Jesse M.; John Boscardin, W.; Fung, Kathy Z.; Steinman, Michael A.

    2010-01-01

    Educa- tion Program risk assessment and potential for riskapproaches of coronary risk assessment–do they work? Am JRESEARCH Coronary Risk Assessment by Point-Based vs.

  20. Reference Models and Incentive Regulation of Electricity Distribution Networks: An Evaluation of Sweden’s Network Performance Assessment Model (NPAM)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jamasb, Tooraj; Pollitt, Michael G.

    (Capex), quality of service, and network losses in a single model. Aggregation of these important elements into a single model has useful efficiency and incentive properties. Firms can adjust their inputs and outputs more efficiently by weighting... long-term benchmarking model, the NPAM incorporates the main inputs and outputs of regulatory concern such as operating and maintenance expenditures (Opex), capital expenditures (Capex), service quality, and network energy losses. It is generally...

  1. Event Modeling in Social Media with Application to Disaster Damage Assessment 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liang, Yuan

    2013-07-16

    This thesis addresses the modeling of events in social media, with an emphasis on the detection, tracking, and analysis of disaster-related events like the 2011 Tohuku Earthquake in Japan. Successful event modeling is ...

  2. Uncertainty assessment of complex models with application to aviation environmental systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allaire, Douglas L

    2009-01-01

    Numerical simulation models that support decision-making and policy-making processes are often complex, involving many disciplines, and long computation times. These models typically have many factors of different character, ...

  3. Coupling GIS and LCA for biodiversity assessments of land use: Part 1: Inventory modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Geyer, Roland; Stoms, David M.; Lindner, Jan P.; Davis, Frank W.; Wittstock, Bastian

    2010-01-01

    scenarios were developed with GIS modeling. Current land use0170-9 LAND USE IN LCA Coupling GIS and LCA for biodiversityGeographic information systems (GIS) are adept at modeling

  4. ESD.864 / ESD.936 Systems Modeling and Assessment for Policy, Spring 2010

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Selin, Noelle

    This course explores how scientific information can be used to inform policy decision-making processes through the use of quantitative modeling techniques. It incorporates both hands-on analysis and practice using models ...

  5. Recent advances in carbon emissions reduction: policies, technologies, monitoring, assessment and modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Moore, John

    energy systems Carbon capture and storage Geoengineering approaches Carbon trade/tax schemes a b s t r Keywords: Carbon emissions reduction Improved energy use efficiency Implementation of low-fossil carbon in this special volume assess alternative carbon emissions reduction approaches, such as carbon capture

  6. Critically Assessing the Predictive Power of QSAR Models for Human Liver Microsomal Stability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Information ABSTRACT: To lower the possibility of late-stage failures in the drug development process, an up endeavor where failures in late-stage clinical trials still remain common, essentially negating all prior assays have been developed to assess pharmacokinetics properties early in the hit/lead generation stage.3

  7. Towing tank PIV measurement system, data and uncertainty assessment for DTMB Model 5512

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gui, Lichuan

    . Longo, F. Stern Abstract A towed PIV system designed by DANTEC Measurement Technology for the Iowa-hole pitot probe data. Uncertainty assessment following standard proce- dures is used to quantify. Quantitative comparisons with 5-hole pitot data shows that PIV uncertainties are about 1% lower than those

  8. Validation of a Cognitive Diagnostic Model Across Multiple Forms of a Reading Comprehension Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Clark, Amy K

    2013-12-31

    testing programs have begun implementing cognitive diagnostic modeling with tests that are already in use. In this process, a cognitive model is retrofit to a test form using... large testing organizations. Rather than retrofitting a diagnostic model to a single test form at a time, operational testing programs would benefit from being able to apply...

  9. An Update of the Analytical Groundwater Modeling to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Afton Solar Energy Zone

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Quinn, John J.; Greer, Christopher B.; Carr, Adrianne E.

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to update a one-dimensional analytical groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal in support of utility-scale solar energy development at the Afton Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program. This report describes the modeling for assessing the drawdown associated with SEZ groundwater pumping rates for a 20-year duration considering three categories of water demand (high, medium, and low) based on technology-specific considerations. The 2012 modeling effort published in the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Solar Energy Development in Six Southwestern States (Solar PEIS; BLM and DOE 2012) has been refined based on additional information described below in an expanded hydrogeologic discussion.

  10. Description and assessment of structural and temperature models in the FRAP-T6 code. [PWR; BWR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siefken, L.J.

    1983-01-01

    The FRAP-T6 code was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) for the purpose of calculating the transient performance of light water reactor fuel rods during reactor transients ranging from mild operational transients to severe hypothetical loss-of-coolant accidents. An important application of the FRAP-T6 code is to calculate the structural performance of fuel rod cladding. The capabilities of the FRAP-T6 code are assessed by comparisons of code calculations with the measurements of several hundred in-pile experiments on fuel rods. The results of the assessments show that the code accurately and efficiently models the structural and thermal response of fuel rods.

  11. Florida Public Hurricane Purpose: To develop and maintain a public computer model to assess hurricane wind, surge and flood related risk

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Shu-Ching

    Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model Purpose: To develop and maintain a public computer model to assess hurricane wind, surge and flood related risk and to project annual expected insured residential for user defined scenarios. This public model can also be used to quantify the cost benefits of hurricane

  12. Risk Assessment using Image-Based Hemodynamic Modeling of Patients with Coronary Artery Aneurysms caused by Kawasaki Disease

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sengupta, Dibyendu

    OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO Risk Assessment using Image-BasedOF THE DISSERTATION Risk Assessment using Image-Based

  13. Space-Time Modelling with Long-Memory Dependence: Assessing Ireland's Wind Power Author(s): John Haslett and Adrian E. Raftery

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yandell, Brian S.

    Space-Time Modelling with Long-Memory Dependence: Assessing Ireland's Wind Power Resource Author the long termaverage power output froma wind turbinegenerator at a site forwhich few data on wind speeds and Conditions #12;Appl. Statist.(1989) 38, No. 1, pp. 1-50 Space-timeModellingwithLong-memory Dependence:AssessingIreland'sWind

  14. A Prototype Performance Assessment Model for Generic Deep Borehole Repository for High-Level Nuclear Waste - 12132

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Joon H.; Arnold, Bill W.; Swift, Peter N.; Hadgu, Teklu; Freeze, Geoff; Wang, Yifeng

    2012-07-01

    A deep borehole repository is one of the four geologic disposal system options currently under study by the U.S. DOE to support the development of a long-term strategy for geologic disposal of commercial used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). The immediate goal of the generic deep borehole repository study is to develop the necessary modeling tools to evaluate and improve the understanding of the repository system response and processes relevant to long-term disposal of UNF and HLW in a deep borehole. A prototype performance assessment model for a generic deep borehole repository has been developed using the approach for a mined geological repository. The preliminary results from the simplified deep borehole generic repository performance assessment indicate that soluble, non-sorbing (or weakly sorbing) fission product radionuclides, such as I-129, Se-79 and Cl-36, are the likely major dose contributors, and that the annual radiation doses to hypothetical future humans associated with those releases may be extremely small. While much work needs to be done to validate the model assumptions and parameters, these preliminary results highlight the importance of a robust seal design in assuring long-term isolation, and suggest that deep boreholes may be a viable alternative to mined repositories for disposal of both HLW and UNF. (authors)

  15. MA3T Model Application at ORNL Assesses the Future of Fuel Cell...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Leveraging funding from the Fuel Cell Technologies Office, Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL) has developed a model for simulating the market potential of fuel cell electric vehicles...

  16. A multi-objective programming model for assessment the GHG emissions in MSW management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mavrotas, George; Skoulaxinou, Sotiria; Gakis, Nikos; Katsouros, Vassilis; Georgopoulou, Elena

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • The multi-objective multi-period optimization model. • The solution approach for the generation of the Pareto front with mathematical programming. • The very detailed description of the model (decision variables, parameters, equations). • The use of IPCC 2006 guidelines for landfill emissions (first order decay model) in the mathematical programming formulation. - Abstract: In this study a multi-objective mathematical programming model is developed for taking into account GHG emissions for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management. Mathematical programming models are often used for structure, design and operational optimization of various systems (energy, supply chain, processes, etc.). The last twenty years they are used all the more often in Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management in order to provide optimal solutions with the cost objective being the usual driver of the optimization. In our work we consider the GHG emissions as an additional criterion, aiming at a multi-objective approach. The Pareto front (Cost vs. GHG emissions) of the system is generated using an appropriate multi-objective method. This information is essential to the decision maker because he can explore the trade-offs in the Pareto curve and select his most preferred among the Pareto optimal solutions. In the present work a detailed multi-objective, multi-period mathematical programming model is developed in order to describe the waste management problem. Apart from the bi-objective approach, the major innovations of the model are (1) the detailed modeling considering 34 materials and 42 technologies, (2) the detailed calculation of the energy content of the various streams based on the detailed material balances, and (3) the incorporation of the IPCC guidelines for the CH{sub 4} generated in the landfills (first order decay model). The equations of the model are described in full detail. Finally, the whole approach is illustrated with a case study referring to the application of the model in a Greek region.

  17. Assessing uncertainty of ecosystem models using AmeriFlux observa7ons

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    -based ecosystem model ­ PnET-CN #12;Figure 6. Observed fluxes versus modeled fluxes for NEP, ET of historical (1950-1999) and projected (2000-2099) annual NEP under different emission, the red line stands for the mean of annual NEP simulated with parameter PDFs

  18. An investigation into the use of biokinetic models when assessing intakes of plutonium 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hrycushko, Brian Andrew

    2008-10-10

    and ICRP-66 respiratory tract models can only be interchanged at specific times post intake to give similar excretion results from an inhalation intake. It is feasible to interchange the ICRP-67 plutonium systemic model or the newer Luciani and Polig...

  19. A Flexible Climate Model For Use In Integrated Assessments Andrei P. Sokolov and Peter H. Stone

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    penetration into the deep ocean is comparable with that of other significant uncertainties. 1. Introduction with coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) because of their tremendous computer resource with a diffusive ocean model developed for use in the integrated framework of the MIT Joint Program on the Science

  20. Assessment of Models for Pedestrian Dynamics with Functional Principal Component Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chraibi, M; Gottschalk, H; Saadi, M; Seyfried, A

    2015-01-01

    Many agent based simulation approaches have been proposed for pedestrian flow. As such models are applied e.g.\\ in evacuation studies, the quality and reliability of such models is of vital interest. Pedestrian trajectories are functional data and thus functional principal component analysis is a natural tool to asses the quality of pedestrian flow models beyond average properties. In this article we conduct functional PCA for the trajectories of pedestrians passing through a bottleneck. We benchmark two agent based models of pedestrian flow against the experimental data using PCA average and stochastic features. Functional PCA proves to be an efficient tool to detect deviation between simulation and experiment and to asses quality of pedestrian models.

  1. Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX model for Switzerland: an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin; Pesaran, M. Hashem

    horizons of up to eight quarters ahead since this is the rele- vant time horizon for central banks when setting interest rates. Table 6 shows the RMSFE, the bias and the hit rate of forecasts based on the VECX*(2,2) model for the longest estimation window...

  2. SIMPLIFIED PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR CO? SEQUESTRATION PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT RESEARCH TOPICAL REPORT ON TASK #3 STATISTICAL LEARNING BASED MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mishra, Srikanta; Schuetter, Jared

    2014-11-01

    We compare two approaches for building a statistical proxy model (metamodel) for CO? geologic sequestration from the results of full-physics compositional simulations. The first approach involves a classical Box-Behnken or Augmented Pairs experimental design with a quadratic polynomial response surface. The second approach used a space-filling maxmin Latin Hypercube sampling or maximum entropy design with the choice of five different meta-modeling techniques: quadratic polynomial, kriging with constant and quadratic trend terms, multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) and additivity and variance stabilization (AVAS). Simulations results for CO? injection into a reservoir-caprock system with 9 design variables (and 97 samples) were used to generate the data for developing the proxy models. The fitted models were validated with using an independent data set and a cross-validation approach for three different performance metrics: total storage efficiency, CO? plume radius and average reservoir pressure. The Box-Behnken–quadratic polynomial metamodel performed the best, followed closely by the maximin LHS–kriging metamodel.

  3. Assessment of Multi-Scale T/H Codes and Models for DNB CP

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home Room News Publications TraditionalWithAntiferromagneticInexpensive 2- toArthurAshley Assessment of

  4. An Assessment of Interval Data and Their Potential Application to Residential Electricity End-Use Modeling

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1 Table 1.10 CoolingNotesShale natural2)An Assessment

  5. Flexible Power System Operations Simulation Model for Assessing Wind Integration: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; O'Malley, M.

    2011-03-01

    In this paper a model was developed to mimic operator behavior using a combination of security-constrained unit commitment, security-constrained economic dispatch, and automatic generation control programs.

  6. Behavioral assessment of depressive-like symptoms in a rodent model of spinal cord injury 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Luedtke, Kelsey 1988-

    2011-05-05

    population. However, despite the prevalence of depression in human patients with SCI, there is no spinally injured animal model of depression. To address this issue, we used a battery of established behavioral tests (proposed to be indicative of depression...

  7. Integrating Multiple Geographic Information Systems to Create a Versatile Land Evaluation Site Assessment Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morrison, Grady

    2008-11-19

    GIS in Urban Planning Integrating Multiple Geographic Information Systems to Create a Versatile Land Suitability Analysis Model Grady Morrison Undergraduate Department of Geography University of Kansas gmorrisn@ku.edu Impervious Surface...

  8. Water Vapor Variability Across Spatial Scales: Insights for Theory, Parameterization, and Model Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pressel, Kyle Gregory

    2012-01-01

    11 2 Scaling of Water Vapor Structure Functions as 2.1cloud model. q is the total water mixing-ratio and q ? isAIRS Exponents from AIRS Data Water Vapor Time Series from a

  9. Water Body Temperature Model for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Thermal Cooling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Strzepek, K.

    We develop and test a physically based semi-Lagrangian water body temperature model to apply climatological data and thermal pollution from river-based power plants to historical river flow data in order to better understand ...

  10. A new analytic-adaptive model for EGS assessment, development and management support

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will develop an in depth model of EGS systems that will allow engineers, practitioners, and researchers to more accurately predict how new fluid technologies would work in a reservoir.

  11. A Case Study of Higher Education Competency Models Utilizing an Assessment Framework

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Uden, Jayme Robert

    2012-05-31

    The overall purpose of this study is to explore the creation and implementation of competency models in higher education masters level preparation programs. The study answers five research questions. Why and how did two ...

  12. Advanced Technologies in Energy-Economy Models for Climate Change Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morris, J.F.

    Considerations regarding the roles of advanced technologies are crucial in energy-economic modeling, as these technologies, while usually not yet commercially viable, could substitute for fossil energy when relevant policies ...

  13. Mixed Layer Mesoscales for OGCMs: Model development and assessment with T/P, WOCE and Drifter data

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Canuto, V M; Leboissetier, A

    2011-01-01

    We present a model for mixed layer (ML) mesoscale (M) fluxes of an arbitrary tracer in terms of the resolved fields (mean tracer and mean velocity). The treatment of an arbitrary tracer, rather than only buoyancy, is necessary since OGCMs time step T, S, CO2, etc and not buoyancy. The particular case of buoyancy is used to assess the model results. The paper contains three parts: derivation of the results, discussion of the results and assessment of the latter using, among others, WOCE, T/P and Drifter data. Derivation. To construct the M fluxes, we first solve the ML M dynamic equations for the velocity and tracer M fields. The goal of the derivation is to emphasize the different treatments of the non-linear terms in the adiabatic vs. diabatic ocean (deep ocean vs. mixed layer). Results. We derive analytic expressions for the following variables: a) vertical and horizontal M fluxes of an arbitrary tracer, b) M diffusivity in terms of the EKE, c) surface value of the EKE in terms of the vertical M buoyancy fl...

  14. One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-11-18

    An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model including a waterdemand model is coupled offline with a land surface hydrology – routing – water resources management model. A spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrated reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi and Ohio). Implications for the future flow regulation, water supply and supply deficit are investigated using a climate change projection with the B1 emission scenario which affects both natural flow and water demand. Over the Midwest, changes in flow regulation are mostly driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins. The changes in flow and demand have a combined effect on the Missouri Summer regulated flow. The supply deficit tends to be driven by the change in flow over the region. Spatial analysis demonstrates the relationship between the supply deficit and the change in demand over urban areas not along a main river or with limited storage, and over areas upstream of groundwater dependent fields with therefore overestimated demand.

  15. A New Analytic-Adaptive Model for EGS Assessment, Development and Management Support

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Danko, George L

    2014-05-29

    To increase understanding of the energy extraction capacity of Enhanced Geothermal System(s) (EGS), a numerical model development and application project is completed. The general objective of the project is to develop and apply a new, data-coupled Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical (T-H-M-C) model in which the four internal components can be freely selected from existing simulation software without merging and cross-combining a diverse set of computational codes. Eight tasks are completed during the project period. The results are reported in five publications, an MS thesis, twelve quarterly, and two annual reports to DOE. Two US patents have also been issued during the project period, with one patent application originated prior to the start of the project. The “Multiphase Physical Transport Modeling Method and Modeling System” (U.S. Patent 8,396,693 B2, 2013), a key element in the GHE sub-model solution, is successfully used for EGS studies. The “Geothermal Energy Extraction System and Method" invention (U.S. Patent 8,430,166 B2, 2013) originates from the time of project performance, describing a new fluid flow control solution. The new, coupled T-H-M-C numerical model will help analyzing and designing new, efficient EGS systems.

  16. Assessment of a mechanistic model in U-Pu-Zr metallic alloy fuel fission-gas behavior simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yun, D.; Rest, J.; Yacout, A. M.

    2012-07-01

    A mechanistic kinetic rate theory model originally developed for the prediction of fission gas behavior in oxide nuclear fuels under steady-state and transient conditions has been assessed to look at its applicability to model fission gas behavior in U-Pu-Zr metallic alloy fuel. In order to capture and validate the underlying physics for irradiated U-Pu-Zr fuels, the mechanistic model was applied to the simulation of fission gas release, fission gas and fission product induced swelling, and the evolution of the gas bubble size distribution in three different fuel zones: the outer {alpha}-U, the intermediate, and the inner {gamma}-U zones. Due to its special microstructural features, the {alpha}-U zone in U-Pu-Zr fuels is believed to contribute the largest fraction of fission gas release among the different fuel zones. It is shown that with the use of small effective grain sizes, the mechanistic model can predict fission gas release that is consistent with (though slightly lower than) experimentally measured data. These simulation results are comparable to the experimentally measured fission gas release since the mechanism of fission gas transport through the densely distributed laminar porosity in the {alpha}-U zone is analogous to the mechanism of fission gas transport through the interconnected gas bubble porosity utilized in the mechanistic model. Detailed gas bubble size distributions predicted with the mechanistic model in both the intermediate zone and the high temperature {gamma}-U zone of U-Pu-Zr fuel are also compared to experimental measurements from available SEM micrographs. These comparisons show good agreements between the simulation results and experimental measurements, and therefore provide crucial guidelines for the selection of key physical parameters required for modeling these two zones. In addition, the results of parametric studies for several key parameters are presented for both the intermediate zone and the {gamma}-U zone simulations. (authors)

  17. A multi-model assessment of pollution transport to the Arctic

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shindell, D T; Chin, M; Dentener, F; Doherty, R M; Faluvegi, G; Fiore, A M; Hess, P; Koch, D M; MacKenzie, I A; Sanderson, M G; Schultz, M G; Schulz, M; Stevenson, D S; Teich, H; Textor, C; Wild, O; Bergmann, D J; Bey, I; Bian, H; Cuvelier, C; Duncan, B N; Folberth, G; Horowitz, L W; Jonson, J; Kaminski, J W; Marmer, E; Park, R; Pringle, K J; Schroeder, S; Szopa, S; Takemura, T; Zeng, G; Keating, T J; Zuber, A

    2008-03-13

    We examine the response of Arctic gas and aerosol concentrations to perturbations in pollutant emissions from Europe, East and South Asia, and North America using results from a coordinated model intercomparison. These sensitivities to regional emissions (mixing ratio change per unit emission) vary widely across models and species. Intermodel differences are systematic, however, so that the relative importance of different regions is robust. North America contributes the most to Arctic ozone pollution. For aerosols and CO, European emissions dominate at the Arctic surface but East Asian emissions become progressively more important with altitude, and are dominant in the upper troposphere. Sensitivities show strong seasonality: surface sensitivities typically maximize during boreal winter for European and during spring for East Asian and North American emissions. Mid-tropospheric sensitivities, however, nearly always maximize during spring or summer for all regions. Deposition of black carbon (BC) onto Greenland is most sensitive to North American emissions. North America and Europe each contribute {approx}40% of total BC deposition to Greenland, with {approx}20% from East Asia. Elsewhere in the Arctic, both sensitivity and total BC deposition are dominated by European emissions. Model diversity for aerosols is especially large, resulting primarily from differences in aerosol physical and chemical processing (including removal). Comparison of modeled aerosol concentrations with observations indicates problems in the models, and perhaps, interpretation of the measurements. For gas phase pollutants such as CO and O{sub 3}, which are relatively well-simulated, the processes contributing most to uncertainties depend on the source region and altitude examined. Uncertainties in the Arctic surface CO response to emissions perturbations are dominated by emissions for East Asian sources, while uncertainties in transport, emissions, and oxidation are comparable for European and North American sources. At higher levels, model-to-model variations in transport and oxidation are most important. Differences in photochemistry appear to play the largest role in the intermodel variations in Arctic ozone sensitivity, though transport also contributes substantially in the mid-troposphere.

  18. A novel QSAR model of Salmonella mutagenicity and its application in the safety assessment of drug impurities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valencia, Antoni; Prous, Josep; Mora, Oscar; Sadrieh, Nakissa; Valerio, Luis G.

    2013-12-15

    As indicated in ICH M7 draft guidance, in silico predictive tools including statistically-based QSARs and expert analysis may be used as a computational assessment for bacterial mutagenicity for the qualification of impurities in pharmaceuticals. To address this need, we developed and validated a QSAR model to predict Salmonella t. mutagenicity (Ames assay outcome) of pharmaceutical impurities using Prous Institute's Symmetry?, a new in silico solution for drug discovery and toxicity screening, and the Mold2 molecular descriptor package (FDA/NCTR). Data was sourced from public benchmark databases with known Ames assay mutagenicity outcomes for 7300 chemicals (57% mutagens). Of these data, 90% was used to train the model and the remaining 10% was set aside as a holdout set for validation. The model's applicability to drug impurities was tested using a FDA/CDER database of 951 structures, of which 94% were found within the model's applicability domain. The predictive performance of the model is acceptable for supporting regulatory decision-making with 84 ± 1% sensitivity, 81 ± 1% specificity, 83 ± 1% concordance and 79 ± 1% negative predictivity based on internal cross-validation, while the holdout dataset yielded 83% sensitivity, 77% specificity, 80% concordance and 78% negative predictivity. Given the importance of having confidence in negative predictions, an additional external validation of the model was also carried out, using marketed drugs known to be Ames-negative, and obtained 98% coverage and 81% specificity. Additionally, Ames mutagenicity data from FDA/CFSAN was used to create another data set of 1535 chemicals for external validation of the model, yielding 98% coverage, 73% sensitivity, 86% specificity, 81% concordance and 84% negative predictivity. - Highlights: • A new in silico QSAR model to predict Ames mutagenicity is described. • The model is extensively validated with chemicals from the FDA and the public domain. • Validation tests show desirable high sensitivity and high negative predictivity. • The model predicted 14 reportedly difficult to predict drug impurities with accuracy. • The model is suitable to support risk evaluation of potentially mutagenic compounds.

  19. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; et al

    2015-07-28

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate modelmore »simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m?² yr?², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation productivity and soil respiration as being needed for reducing uncertainty in land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. These advances will require collection of new field data on vegetation and soil dynamics, the development of benchmarking data sets from measurements and remote-sensing observations, and investments in future model development and intercomparison studies.« less

  20. Assessing FPAR Source and Parameter Optimization Scheme in Application of a Diagnostic Carbon Flux Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turner, D P; Ritts, W D; Wharton, S; Thomas, C; Monson, R; Black, T A

    2009-02-26

    The combination of satellite remote sensing and carbon cycle models provides an opportunity for regional to global scale monitoring of terrestrial gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem production. FPAR (the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the plant canopy) is a critical input to diagnostic models, however little is known about the relative effectiveness of FPAR products from different satellite sensors nor about the sensitivity of flux estimates to different parameterization approaches. In this study, we used multiyear observations of carbon flux at four eddy covariance flux tower sites within the conifer biome to evaluate these factors. FPAR products from the MODIS and SeaWiFS sensors, and the effects of single site vs. cross-site parameter optimization were tested with the CFLUX model. The SeaWiFs FPAR product showed greater dynamic range across sites and resulted in slightly reduced flux estimation errors relative to the MODIS product when using cross-site optimization. With site-specific parameter optimization, the flux model was effective in capturing seasonal and interannual variation in the carbon fluxes at these sites. The cross-site prediction errors were lower when using parameters from a cross-site optimization compared to parameter sets from optimization at single sites. These results support the practice of multisite optimization within a biome for parameterization of diagnostic carbon flux models.

  1. Fish Passage Assessment of an Advanced Hydropower Turbine and Conventional Turbine Using Blade-strike Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Zhiqun; Carlson, Thomas J.; Dauble, Dennis D.; Ploskey, Gene R.

    2011-01-04

    In the Columbia and Snake River basins, several species of Pacific salmon were listed under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 due to significant declines of fish population. Dam operators and design engineers are thus faced with the task of making those hydroelectric facilities more ecologically friendly through changes in hydro-turbine design and operation. Public Utility District No. 2 of Grant County, Washington, applied for re-licensing from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to replace the 10 turbines at Wanapum Dam with advanced hydropower turbines that were designed to increase power generation and improve fish passage conditions. We applied both deterministic and stochastic blade-strike models to the newly installed turbine and an existing turbine. Modeled probabilities were compared to the results of a large-scale live fish survival study and a sensor fish study under the same operational parameters. Overall, injury rates predicted by the deterministic model were higher than experimental rates of injury while those predicted by the stochastic model were in close agreement with experiment results. Fish orientation at the time of entry into the plane of the leading edges of the turbine runner blades was an important factor contributing to uncertainty in modeled results. The advanced design turbine had slightly higher modeled injury rates than the existing turbine design; however, there was no statistical evidence that suggested significant differences in blade-strike injuries between the two turbines and the hypothesis that direct fish survival rate through the advanced hydropower turbine is equal or better than that through the conventional turbine could not be rejected.

  2. MELCOR 1.8.5 modeling aspects of fission product release, transport and deposition an assessment with recommendations.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gauntt, Randall O.

    2010-04-01

    The Phebus and VERCORS data have played an important role in contemporary understanding and modeling of fission product release and transport from damaged light water reactor fuel. The data from these test programs have allowed improvement of MELCOR modeling of release and transport processes for both low enrichment uranium fuel as well as high burnup and mixed oxide (MOX) fuels. This paper discusses the synthesis of these findings in the MELCOR severe accident code. Based on recent assessments of MELCOR 1.8.5 fission product release modeling against the Phebus FPT-1 test and on observations from the ISP-46 exercise, modifications to the default MELCOR 1.8.5 release models are recommended. The assessments identified an alternative set of Booth diffusion parameters recommended by ORNL (ORNL-Booth), which produced significantly improved release predictions for cesium and other fission product groups. Some adjustments to the scaling factors in the ORNL-Booth model were made for selected fission product groups, including UO{sub 2}, Mo and Ru in order to obtain better comparisons with the FPT-1 data. The adjusted model, referred to as 'Modified ORNL-Booth,' was subsequently compared to original ORNL VI fission product release experiments and to more recently performed French VERCORS tests, and the comparisons was as favorable or better than the original CORSOR-M MELCOR default release model. These modified ORNL-Booth parameters, input to MELCOR 1.8.5 as 'sensitivity coefficients' (i.e. user input that over-rides the code defaults) are recommended for the interim period until improved release models can be implemented into MELCOR. For the case of ruthenium release in air-oxidizing conditions, some additional modifications to the Ru class vapor pressure are recommended based on estimates of the RuO{sub 2} vapor pressure over mildly hyperstoichiometric UO{sub 2}. The increased vapor pressure for this class significantly increases the net transport of Ru from the fuel to the gas stream. A formal model is needed. Deposition patterns in the Phebus FPT-1 circuit were also significantly improved by using the modified ORNL-Booth parameters, where retention of lower volatile Cs{sub 2}MoO{sub 4} is now predicted in the heated exit regions of the FPT-1 test, bringing down depositions in the FPT-1 steam generator tube to be in closer alignment with the experimental data. This improvement in 'RCS' deposition behavior preserves the overall correct release of cesium to the containment that was observed even with the default CORSOR-M model. Not correctly treated however is the release and transport of Ag to the FPT-1 containment. A model for Ag release from control rods is presently not available in MELCOR. Lack of this model is thought to be responsible for the underprediction by a factor of two of the total aerosol mass to the FPT-1 containment. It is suggested that this underprediction of airborne mass led to an underprediction of the aerosol agglomeration rate. Underprediction of the agglomeration rate leads to low predictions of the aerosol particle size in comparison to experimentally measured ones. Small particle size leads low predictions of the gravitational settling rate relative to the experimental data. This error, however, is a conservative one in that too-low settling rate would result in a larger source term to the environment. Implementation of an interim Ag release model is currently under study. In the course of this assessment, a review of MELCOR release models was performed and led to the identification of several areas for future improvements to MELCOR. These include upgrading the Booth release model to account for changes in local oxidizing/reducing conditions and including a fuel oxidation model to accommodate effects of fuel stoichiometry. Models such as implemented in the French ELSA code and described by Lewis are considered appropriate for MELCOR. A model for ruthenium release under air oxidizing conditions is also needed and should be included as part of a fuel oxidation model since fuel stoichiometry is a fundamen

  3. Mesoscale model cloud scheme assessment using satellite observations Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre Cammas, Patrick J. Mascart, and Jean-Pierre Pinty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre

    Mesoscale model cloud scheme assessment using satellite observations Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Jean of the mesoscale nonhydrostatic (Meso-NH) model has been conducted by comparing synthetic METEOSAT brightness combines the output from a bulk explicit cloud scheme routinely used in mesoscale simulations

  4. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 6: 3555, 2001. 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dimov, Ivan

    In order to help guide air pollution legislation at the European level, harmful air pollution effects. Ozone has been labeled as the most serious of the damaging air pollutants to agriculture, where growth for Denmark. Keywords: air pollution models, AOT40 values for ozone, damaging effects, economical evaluations

  5. Cascading Dynamics and Mitigation Assessment in Power System Disturbances via a Hidden Failure Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    of Wisconsin, Madison WI, 53706, USA Abstract A hidden failure embedded DC model of power transmission systems, the role of the transmission system to provide reliable energy transportation is even more crucial. However, the U.S power transmission grid suffered from more than 400 major blackouts in the past 16 years [1

  6. Atomization and Sprays, 19(9):885903, 2009 ASSESSMENT OF ATOMIZATION MODELS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Aggarwal, Suresh K.

    on the combustion and emission characteristics of diesel engines. Using x-ray radiography, it is possible to obtain are performed using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code "CONVERGE," which employs an innovative grid generated inside the injector need to be included in the model. INTRODUCTION Combustion and emission

  7. Model-Based Performance Assessment of a Lean-Burn System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grizzle, Jessy W.

    /F · Must also worry about emissions ­ HC & CO easy ­ NOx hard! #12;TWC Alone Inadequate for Treating NOx · Evaluation of fuel economy versus NOx emission trade-off ­ intrinsically a dynamic problem ­ evaluate over ­ in cylinder A/F, etc. ­ emissions · HC · NOx · CO · feedgas temperature #12;Control-Oriented TWC Model

  8. A Model to Assess Fatigue at Joint-Level Using the Half-Joint Concept

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rodríguez, Inmaculada

    and simulations generated by our animation environment. 1. Introduction The human body is continuously under b Virtual Reality Laboratory. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, Switzerland In this paper we focus on the modeling and evaluation of performance factors as human fatigue at joint level. We

  9. Assessing the Vulnerability of Large Critical Infrastructure Using Fully-Coupled Blast Effects Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McMichael, L D; Noble, C R; Margraf, J D; Glascoe, L G

    2009-03-26

    Structural failures, such as the MacArthur Maze I-880 overpass in Oakland, California and the I-35 bridge in Minneapolis, Minnesota, are recent examples of our national infrastructure's fragility and serve as an important reminder of such infrastructure in our everyday lives. These two failures, as well as the World Trade Center's collapse and the levee failures in New Orleans, highlight the national importance of protecting our infrastructure as much as possible against acts of terrorism and natural hazards. This paper describes a process for evaluating the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to large blast loads using a fully-coupled finite element approach. A description of the finite element software and modeling technique is discussed along with the experimental validation of the numerical tools. We discuss how such an approach can be used for specific problems such as modeling the progressive collapse of a building.

  10. Using Van Manen's model to assess levels of reflectivity among preservice physical education teachers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ballard, Kristy Kay

    2006-10-30

    of the lesson, what should be changed, and was the content covered important to the students? Zeichner and Liston (1987) also identified four levels of reflective thought in their model. The first level is factual, where the teacher focuses on facts... are introduced to and involved in activities such as dialogue journals, developing a philosophy of education, and ?thinking outside the box.? In the second stage, students are involved in developing lesson plans for particular content areas. After...

  11. A methodology for assessing the market benefits of alternative motor fuels: The Alternative Fuels Trade Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leiby, P.N.

    1993-09-01

    This report describes a modeling methodology for examining the prospective economic benefits of displacing motor gasoline use by alternative fuels. The approach is based on the Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). AFTM development was undertaken by the US Department of Energy (DOE) as part of a longer term study of alternative fuels issues. The AFTM is intended to assist with evaluating how alternative fuels may be promoted effectively, and what the consequences of substantial alternative fuels use might be. Such an evaluation of policies and consequences of an alternative fuels program is being undertaken by DOE as required by Section 502(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Interest in alternative fuels is based on the prospective economic, environmental and energy security benefits from the substitution of these fuels for conventional transportation fuels. The transportation sector is heavily dependent on oil. Increased oil use implies increased petroleum imports, with much of the increase coming from OPEC countries. Conversely, displacement of gasoline has the potential to reduce US petroleum imports, thereby reducing reliance on OPEC oil and possibly weakening OPEC`s ability to extract monopoly profits. The magnitude of US petroleum import reduction, the attendant fuel price changes, and the resulting US benefits, depend upon the nature of oil-gas substitution and the supply and demand behavior of other world regions. The methodology applies an integrated model of fuel market interactions to characterize these effects.

  12. Quantifying the uncertainty of nonpoint source attribution in distributed water quality models: A Bayesian assessment of SWAT's sediment export

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arhonditsis, George B.

    : A Bayesian assessment of SWAT's sediment export predictions Christopher Wellen a, , George B. Arhonditsis

  13. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance activity. This will allow (i) a direct comparison of future TC activity that could be expected for an active or inactive season in an altered climate regime, and (ii) a measure of the level of uncertainty and variability in TC activity resulting from different carbon emission scenarios.

  14. Use of ARM Products in Reanalysis Applications and IPCC Model Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walsh, John E; Chapman, William L

    2011-09-30

    Year-3 of the project was spent developing an observed cloud climatology for Barrow, AK and relating the observed cloud fractions to the surface circulation patterns and locally observed winds. Armed with this information, we identified errors and sources of errors of cloud fraction simulations by numerical models in the Arctic. Specifically, we compared the cloud simulations output by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to corresponding observed cloud fractions obtained by the Department of Energyâ??s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for four mid-season months: (January, April, July, and October). Reanalyses are obtained from numerical weather prediction models that are not run in real-time. Instead, a reanalysis model ingests a wide variety of historical observations for the purpose of producing a gridded dataset of many model-derived quantities that are as temporally homogeneous as possible. Therefore, reanalysis output can be used as a proxy for observations, although some biases and other errors are inevitable because of model parameterizations and observational gaps. In the observational analysis we documented the seasonality of cloudiness at the north slope including cloud base height and dependence on synoptic regime. We followed this with an evaluation of the associations of wind-speed and direction and cloud amounts in both the observational record and the reanalysis model. The Barrow cloud fraction data show that clear conditions are most often associated with anomalous high pressure to the north of Barrow, especially in spring and early summer. Overcast skies are most commonly associated with anomalous low pressure to the south. The observational analysis shows that low, boundary layer clouds are the most common type of cloud observed North Slope ARM observing site. However, these near-surface clouds are a major source of errors in the NARR simulations. When compared to observations, the NARR over-simulates the fraction of low clouds during the winter months, and under-simulates the fraction of low clouds during the summer months. The NARR wind speeds at the North Slope are correlated to the observed ARM wind speeds at Barrow. The following correlations were obtained using the 3-hourly data: Jan (0.84); Apr (0.83); Jul (0.69); Oct (0.79). A negative bias (undersimulation) exists in the reanalysis wind speeds for January through July, but is typically 3ms-1 or less in magnitude. Overall, the magnitude of the wind vector is undersimulated approximately 74% of the time in the cold season months and 85% of the time July, but only about half of the time in October. Wind direction biases in the model are generally small (10-20 degrees), but they are generally in the leftward-turning direction in all months. We also synthesized NARR atmospheric output into a composite analysis of the synoptic conditions that are present when the reanalysis model fails in its simulations of Arctic cloud fractions, and similarly, those conditions present when the model simulates accurate cloud fractions. Cold season errors were highest when high pressure was located north of Barrow favoring anomalous winds and longer fetches from the northeast. In addition, larger cloud fraction biases were found on days with relatively calm winds (2-5 m/s). The most pronounced oversimulation biases associated with poorly simulated clouds occur during conditions with very low cloud-base heights (< 50 m). In contrast, the model appears more adept at capturing cloudless conditions in the spring than the winter with oversimulations occurring just 5% of the time in spring compared to 20% in the winter months. During the warm season, low level clouds are present in 32% of the time with onshore flow and less than half this frequent in offshore wind conditions. Composite sea level pressure fields indicate that clear sky conditions typically result when high pressure is centered at or near Barrow, AK. Overcast days are associated with generally lower sea level pressures near the North Slope and onshore flow from the NW i

  15. Hydrogeologic analyses in support of the conceptual model for the LANL Area G LLRW performance assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vold, E.L.; Birdsell, K.; Rogers, D.; Springer, E.; Krier, D.; Turin, H.J.

    1996-04-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory low level radioactive waste disposal facility at Area G is currently completing a draft of the site Performance Assessment. Results from previous field studies have estimated a range in recharge rate up to 1 cm/yr. Recent estimates of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity for each stratigraphic layer under a unit gradient assumption show a wide range in recharge rate of 10{sup {minus}4} to 1 cm/yr depending upon location. Numerical computations show that a single net infiltration rate at the mesa surface does not match the moisture profile in each stratigraphic layer simultaneously, suggesting local source or sink terms possibly due to surface connected porous regions. The best fit to field data at deeper stratigraphic layers occurs for a net infiltration of about 0.1 cm/yr. A recent detailed analysis evaluated liquid phase vertical moisture flux, based on moisture profiles in several boreholes and van Genuchten fits to the hydraulic properties for each of the stratigraphic units. Results show a near surface infiltration region averages 8m deep, below which is a dry, low moisture content, and low flux region, where liquid phase recharge averages to zero. Analysis shows this low flux region is dominated by vapor movement. Field data from tritium diffusion studies, from pressure fluctuation attenuation studies, and from comparisons of in-situ and core sample permeabilities indicate that the vapor diffusion is enhanced above that expected in the matrix and is presumably due to enhanced flow through the fractures. Below this dry region within the mesa is a moisture spike which analyses show corresponds to a moisture source. The likely physical explanation is seasonal transient infiltration through surface-connected fractures. This anomalous region is being investigated in current field studies, because it is critical in understanding the moisture flux which continues to deeper regions through the unsaturated zone.

  16. A Qualitative Readiness-Requirements Assessment Model for Enterprise Big-Data Infrastructure Investment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL] [ORNL; McNair, Wade [ORNL] [ORNL; Sukumar, Sreenivas R [ORNL] [ORNL; Nutaro, James J [ORNL] [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    In the last three decades, there has been an exponential growth in the area of information technology providing the information processing needs of data-driven businesses in government, science, and private industry in the form of capturing, staging, integrating, conveying, analyzing, and transferring data that will help knowledge workers and decision makers make sound business decisions. Data integration across enterprise warehouses is one of the most challenging steps in the big data analytics strategy. Several levels of data integration have been identified across enterprise warehouses: data accessibility, common data platform, and consolidated data model. Each level of integration has its own set of complexities that requires a certain amount of time, budget, and resources to implement. Such levels of integration are designed to address the technical challenges inherent in consolidating the disparate data sources. In this paper, we present a methodology based on industry best practices to measure the readiness of an organization and its data sets against the different levels of data integration. We introduce a new Integration Level Model (ILM) tool, which is used for quantifying an organization and data system s readiness to share data at a certain level of data integration. It is based largely on the established and accepted framework provided in the Data Management Association (DAMA-DMBOK). It comprises several key data management functions and supporting activities, together with several environmental elements that describe and apply to each function. The proposed model scores the maturity of a system s data governance processes and provides a pragmatic methodology for evaluating integration risks. The higher the computed scores, the better managed the source data system and the greater the likelihood that the data system can be brought in at a higher level of integration.

  17. Assessing the Potential of Developing a Tool for Residential Facility Management Using Building Information Modeling Software 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Madhani, Himanshu 1986-

    2012-11-29

    -least one owner with similar type of house as in other group. 1st group is shown a video demonstration of this tool and provided with a model with certain maintenance issues. The video provides step by step tutorial on how the participants can deal..., this tool with the help of web-based search engines could provide links to tutorial videos. Companies like Google could get involved in developing this tool further and could have their search engine attached to the maintenance alerts. This would help...

  18. MA3T Model Application at ORNL Assesses the Future of Fuel Cell Markets |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Delicious Rank EERE: Alternative Fuelsof EnergyApril 2014 |Department of Energy MA3T Model Application at ORNL

  19. Updated Life-Cycle Assessment of Aluminum Production and Semi-fabrication for the GREET Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dai, Qiang; Kelly, Jarod C.; Burnham, Andrew; Elgowainy, Amgad

    2015-09-01

    This report serves as an update for the life-cycle analysis (LCA) of aluminum production based on the most recent data representing the state-of-the-art of the industry in North America. The 2013 Aluminum Association (AA) LCA report on the environmental footprint of semifinished aluminum products in North America provides the basis for the update (The Aluminum Association, 2013). The scope of this study covers primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, as well as aluminum semi-fabrication processes including hot rolling, cold rolling, extrusion and shape casting. This report focuses on energy consumptions, material inputs and criteria air pollutant emissions for each process from the cradle-to-gate of aluminum, which starts from bauxite extraction, and ends with manufacturing of semi-fabricated aluminum products. The life-cycle inventory (LCI) tables compiled are to be incorporated into the vehicle cycle model of Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) Model for the release of its 2015 version.

  20. Mathematical modeling of positron emission tomography (PET) data to assess radiofluoride transport in living plants following petiolar administration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Converse, Alexander K. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Ahlers, Elizabeth O. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Bryan, Tom W. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Hetue, Jackson D. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Lake, Katherine A. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Ellison, Paul A. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Engle, Jonathan W. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Barnhart, Todd E. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Nickles, Robert J. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Williams, Paul H. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); DeJesus, Onofre T. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Background: Ion transport is a fundamental physiological process that can be studied non-invasively in living plants with radiotracer imaging methods. Fluoride is a known phytotoxic pollutant and understanding its transport in plants after leaf absorption is of interest to those in agricultural areas near industrial sources of airborne fluoride. Here we report the novel use of a commercial, high-resolution, animal positron emission tomography (PET) scanner to trace a bolus of [¹?F]fluoride administered via bisected petioles of Brassica oleracea, an established model species, to simulate whole plant uptake of atmospheric fluoride. This methodology allows for the first time mathematical compartmental modeling of fluoride transport in the living plant. Radiotracer kinetics in the stem were described with a single-parameter free- and trapped-compartment model and mean arrival times at different stem positions were calculated from the free-compartment time-activity curves. Results: After initiation of administration at the bisected leaf stalk, [¹?F] radioactivity climbed for approximately 10 minutes followed by rapid washout from the stem and equilibration within leaves. Kinetic modeling of transport in the stem yielded a trapping rate of 1.5 +/- 0.3%/min (mean +/- s.d., n = 3), velocity of 2.2 +/- 1.1 cm/min, and trapping fraction of 0.8 +/- 0.5%/cm. Conclusion: Quantitative assessment of physiologically meaningful transport parameters of fluoride in living plants is possible using standard positron emission tomography in combination with petiolar radiotracer administration. Movement of free fluoride was observed to be consistent with bulk flow in xylem, namely a rapid and linear change in position with respect to time. Trapping, likely in the apoplast, was observed. Future applications of the methods described here include studies of transport of other ions and molecules of interest in plant physiology.

  1. Assessment of the Fluorescence and Auger Data Base used in Plasma Modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    T. W. Gorczyca; C. N. Kodituwakku; K. T. Korista; O. Zatsarinny; N. R. Badnell; E. Behar; M. H. Chen; D. W. Savin

    2003-04-10

    We have investigated the accuracy of the 1s-vacancy fluorescence data base of Kaastra & Mewe (1993, A&AS, 97, 443) resulting from the initial atomic physics calculations and the subsequent scaling along isoelectronic sequences. In particular, we have focused on the relatively simple Be-like and F-like 1s-vacancy sequences. We find that the earlier atomic physics calculations for the oscillator strengths and autoionization rates of singly-charged B II and Ne II are in sufficient agreement with our present calculations. However, the substantial charge dependence of these quantities along each isoelectronic sequence, the incorrect configuration averaging used for B II, and the neglect of spin-orbit effects (which become important at high-Z) all cast doubt on the reliability of the Kaastra & Mewe data for application to plasma modeling.

  2. Heat Pump Water Heater Technology Assessment Based on Laboratory Research and Energy Simulation Models: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hudon, K.; Sparn, B.; Christensen, D.; Maguire, J.

    2012-02-01

    This paper explores the laboratory performance of five integrated Heat Pump Water Heaters (HPWHs) across a wide range of operating conditions representative of US climate regions. Laboratory results demonstrate the efficiency of this technology under most of the conditions tested and show that differences in control schemes and design features impact the performance of the individual units. These results were used to understand current model limitations, and then to bracket the energy savings potential for HPWH technology in various US climate regions. Simulation results show that HPWHs are expected to provide significant energy savings in many climate zones when compared to other types of water heaters (up to 64%, including impact on HVAC systems).

  3. The Prospect of using Three-Dimensional Earth Models To Improve Nuclear Explosion Monitoring and Ground Motion Hazard Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zucca, J J; Walter, W R; Rodgers, A J; Richards, P; Pasyanos, M E; Myers, S C; Lay, T; Harris, D; Antoun, T

    2008-11-19

    The last ten years have brought rapid growth in the development and use of three-dimensional (3D) seismic models of Earth structure at crustal, regional and global scales. In order to explore the potential for 3D seismic models to contribute to important societal applications, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a 'Workshop on Multi-Resolution 3D Earth Models to Predict Key Observables in Seismic Monitoring and Related Fields' on June 6 and 7, 2007 in Berkeley, California. The workshop brought together academic, government and industry leaders in the research programs developing 3D seismic models and methods for the nuclear explosion monitoring and seismic ground motion hazard communities. The workshop was designed to assess the current state of work in 3D seismology and to discuss a path forward for determining if and how 3D Earth models and techniques can be used to achieve measurable increases in our capabilities for monitoring underground nuclear explosions and characterizing seismic ground motion hazards. This paper highlights some of the presentations, issues, and discussions at the workshop and proposes two specific paths by which to begin quantifying the potential contribution of progressively refined 3D seismic models in critical applied arenas. Seismic monitoring agencies are tasked with detection, location, and characterization of seismic activity in near real time. In the case of nuclear explosion monitoring or seismic hazard, decisions to further investigate a suspect event or to launch disaster relief efforts may rely heavily on real-time analysis and results. Because these are weighty decisions, monitoring agencies are regularly called upon to meticulously document and justify every aspect of their monitoring system. In order to meet this level of scrutiny and maintain operational robustness requirements, only mature technologies are considered for operational monitoring systems, and operational technology necessarily lags contemporary research. Current monitoring practice is to use relatively simple Earth models that generally afford analytical prediction of seismic observables (see Examples of Current Monitoring Practice below). Empirical relationships or corrections to predictions are often used to account for unmodeled phenomena, such as the generation of S-waves from explosions or the effect of 3-dimensional Earth structure on wave propagation. This approach produces fast and accurate predictions in areas where empirical observations are available. However, accuracy may diminish away from empirical data. Further, much of the physics is wrapped into an empirical relationship or correction, which limits the ability to fully understand the physical processes underlying the seismic observation. Every generation of seismology researchers works toward quantitative results, with leaders who are active at or near the forefront of what has been computationally possible. While recognizing that only a 3-dimensional model can capture the full physics of seismic wave generation and propagation in the Earth, computational seismology has, until recently, been limited to simplifying model parameterizations (e.g. 1D Earth models) that lead to efficient algorithms. What is different today is the fact that the largest and fastest machines are at last capable of evaluating the effects of generalized 3D Earth structure, at levels of detail that improve significantly over past efforts, with potentially wide application. Advances in numerical methods to compute travel times and complete seismograms for 3D models are enabling new ways to interpret available data. This includes algorithms such as the Fast Marching Method (Rawlison and Sambridge, 2004) for travel time calculations and full waveform methods such as the spectral element method (SEM; Komatitsch et al., 2002, Tromp et al., 2005), higher order Galerkin methods (Kaser and Dumbser, 2006; Dumbser and Kaser, 2006) and advances in more traditional Cartesian finite difference methods (e.g. Pitarka, 1999; Nilsson et al., 2007). The ability to compute seis

  4. Solar Resource Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Renne, D.; George, R.; Wilcox, S.; Stoffel, T.; Myers, D.; Heimiller, D.

    2008-02-01

    This report covers the solar resource assessment aspects of the Renewable Systems Interconnection study. The status of solar resource assessment in the United States is described, and summaries of the availability of modeled data sets are provided.

  5. A Multi-Methods Approach to HRA and Human Performance Modeling: A Field Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacques Hugo; David I Gertman

    2012-06-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) is a research reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory is primarily designed and used to test materials to be used in other, larger-scale and prototype reactors. The reactor offers various specialized systems and allows certain experiments to be run at their own temperature and pressure. The ATR Canal temporarily stores completed experiments and used fuel. It also has facilities to conduct underwater operations such as experiment examination or removal. In reviewing the ATR safety basis, a number of concerns were identified involving the ATR canal. A brief study identified ergonomic issues involving the manual handling of fuel elements in the canal that may increase the probability of human error and possible unwanted acute physical outcomes to the operator. In response to this concern, that refined the previous HRA scoping analysis by determining the probability of the inadvertent exposure of a fuel element to the air during fuel movement and inspection was conducted. The HRA analysis employed the SPAR-H method and was supplemented by information gained from a detailed analysis of the fuel inspection and transfer tasks. This latter analysis included ergonomics, work cycles, task duration, and workload imposed by tool and workplace characteristics, personal protective clothing, and operational practices that have the potential to increase physical and mental workload. Part of this analysis consisted of NASA-TLX analyses, combined with operational sequence analysis, computational human performance analysis (CHPA), and 3D graphical modeling to determine task failures and precursors to such failures that have safety implications. Experience in applying multiple analysis techniques in support of HRA methods is discussed.

  6. Mathematical modeling of positron emission tomography (PET) data to assess radiofluoride transport in living plants following petiolar administration

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Converse, Alexander K.; Ahlers, Elizabeth O.; Bryan, Tom W.; Hetue, Jackson D.; Lake, Katherine A.; Ellison, Paul A.; Engle, Jonathan W.; Barnhart, Todd E.; Nickles, Robert J.; Williams, Paul H.; et al

    2015-03-15

    Background: Ion transport is a fundamental physiological process that can be studied non-invasively in living plants with radiotracer imaging methods. Fluoride is a known phytotoxic pollutant and understanding its transport in plants after leaf absorption is of interest to those in agricultural areas near industrial sources of airborne fluoride. Here we report the novel use of a commercial, high-resolution, animal positron emission tomography (PET) scanner to trace a bolus of [¹?F]fluoride administered via bisected petioles of Brassica oleracea, an established model species, to simulate whole plant uptake of atmospheric fluoride. This methodology allows for the first time mathematical compartmental modelingmore »of fluoride transport in the living plant. Radiotracer kinetics in the stem were described with a single-parameter free- and trapped-compartment model and mean arrival times at different stem positions were calculated from the free-compartment time-activity curves. Results: After initiation of administration at the bisected leaf stalk, [¹?F] radioactivity climbed for approximately 10 minutes followed by rapid washout from the stem and equilibration within leaves. Kinetic modeling of transport in the stem yielded a trapping rate of 1.5 +/- 0.3%/min (mean +/- s.d., n = 3), velocity of 2.2 +/- 1.1 cm/min, and trapping fraction of 0.8 +/- 0.5%/cm. Conclusion: Quantitative assessment of physiologically meaningful transport parameters of fluoride in living plants is possible using standard positron emission tomography in combination with petiolar radiotracer administration. Movement of free fluoride was observed to be consistent with bulk flow in xylem, namely a rapid and linear change in position with respect to time. Trapping, likely in the apoplast, was observed. Future applications of the methods described here include studies of transport of other ions and molecules of interest in plant physiology.« less

  7. Downscaling Global Land Cover Projections from an Integrated Assessment Model for Use in Regional Analyses: Results and Evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Huang, Maoyi; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-06-05

    Projections of land cover change generated from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at subregional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land use at the sub-continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5 degree).

  8. An Electricity-focused Economic Input-output Model: Life-cycle Assessment and Policy Implications of Future Electricity Generation Scenarios

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    on the environmental impacts associated with electricity consumption, and that interstate trading tends to makeAn Electricity-focused Economic Input-output Model: Life-cycle Assessment and Policy Implications of Future Electricity Generation Scenarios Joe Marriott Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements

  9. Climate sensitivity is investigated for 10 models that are participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.We consider the temporal evolution of climate sensitivity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    ABSTRACT Climate sensitivity is investigated for 10 models that are participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.We consider the temporal evolution of climate sensitivity and we analyze the transient climate sensitivity from fully coupled simulations with a 1% per year increase in CO2 in terms

  10. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 3 -- Residential and commercial sector DSM analyses: Detailed results from the DBEDT DSM assessment model; Part 1, Technical potential

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The Hawaii Demand-Side Management Resource Assessment was the fourth of seven projects in the Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) program. HES was designed by the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism (DBEDT) to produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. The purpose of Project 4 was to develop a comprehensive assessment of Hawaii`s demand-side management (DSM) resources. To meet this objective, the project was divided into two phases. The first phase included development of a DSM technology database and the identification of Hawaii commercial building characteristics through on-site audits. These Phase 1 products were then used in Phase 2 to identify expected energy impacts from DSM measures in typical residential and commercial buildings in Hawaii. The building energy simulation model DOE-2.1E was utilized to identify the DSM energy impacts. More detailed information on the typical buildings and the DOE-2.1E modeling effort is available in Reference Volume 1, ``Building Prototype Analysis``. In addition to the DOE-2.1E analysis, estimates of residential and commercial sector gas and electric DSM potential for the four counties of Honolulu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai through 2014 were forecasted by the new DBEDT DSM Assessment Model. Results from DBEDTs energy forecasting model, ENERGY 2020, were linked with results from DOE-2.1E building energy simulation runs and estimates of DSM measure impacts, costs, lifetime, and anticipated market penetration rates in the DBEDT DSM Model. Through its algorithms, estimates of DSM potential for each forecast year were developed. Using the load shape information from the DOE-2.1E simulation runs, estimates of electric peak demand impacts were developed. Numerous tables and figures illustrating the technical potential for demand-side management are included.

  11. global integrated assessment model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Phipps, Steven J.

    , including emissions trading schemes and adaptation meas- ures. · Using GIAM, an illustrative long run include emissions trading schemes, carbon taxes, research and develop- ment schemes to encourage energy

  12. Applications of contaminant fate and bioaccumulation models in assessing ecological risks of chemicals: A case study for gasoline hydrocarbons

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Foster, Karen L.; Maddalena, Randy L.; Parkerton, Thomas F.; Mackay, Don

    2004-01-01

    the composition of the gasoline inventory, and can beand exposure assessment for gasoline; Trent University:of Chemicals: A Case Study for Gasoline Hydrocarbons Matthew

  13. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC – Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM – Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  14. Technology Assessment TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rock, Chris

    Technology Assessment 10/14/2004 1 TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT STRATEGIC PLAN MISSION STATEMENT Support the Mission of Texas Tech University and the TTU Information Technology Division by providing timely and relevant information and assistance in current and emerging technologies and their practical applications

  15. Summary of Conceptual Models and Data Needs to Support the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility Performance Assessment and Composite Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    A. Jeff Sondrup; Annette L. Schafter; Arthur S. Rood

    2010-09-01

    An overview of the technical approach and data required to support development of the performance assessment, and composite analysis are presented for the remote handled low-level waste disposal facility on-site alternative being considered at Idaho National Laboratory. Previous analyses and available data that meet requirements are identified and discussed. Outstanding data and analysis needs are also identified and summarized. The on-site disposal facility is being evaluated in anticipation of the closure of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the INL. An assessment of facility performance and of the composite performance are required to meet the Department of Energy’s Low-Level Waste requirements (DOE Order 435.1, 2001) which stipulate that operation and closure of the disposal facility will be managed in a manner that is protective of worker and public health and safety, and the environment. The corresponding established procedures to ensure these protections are contained in DOE Manual 435.1-1, Radioactive Waste Management Manual (DOE M 435.1-1 2001). Requirements include assessment of (1) all-exposure pathways, (2) air pathway, (3) radon, and (4) groundwater pathway doses. Doses are computed from radionuclide concentrations in the environment. The performance assessment and composite analysis are being prepared to assess compliance with performance objectives and to establish limits on concentrations and inventories of radionuclides at the facility and to support specification of design, construction, operation and closure requirements. Technical objectives of the PA and CA are primarily accomplished through the development of an establish inventory, and through the use of predictive environmental transport models implementing an overarching conceptual framework. This document reviews the conceptual model, inherent assumptions, and data required to implement the conceptual model in a numerical framework. Available site-specific data and data sources are then addressed. Differences in required analyses and data are captured as outstanding data needs.

  16. Facilities management: the development of a model for building condition assessment surveys conducted at Fort Riley, Kansas 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Riblett, Carl Olin

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to document the research and design of a condition assessment system for buildings by utilizing case study methods for the facilities located at Fort Riley, Kansas, an Army military installation. ...

  17. Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Assessing the Outlook of US Oil Dependence Using Oil Security Metrics Model (OSMM)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation given by Oak Ridge National Laboratory at 2015 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Office Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting about assessing the...

  18. Use of international data sets to evaluate and validate pathway assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities. Progress report, August 1993--January 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hendrickson, S.M.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1994-03-01

    This project, ``Use of International Data Sets to Evaluate and Validate Pathway Assessment Models Applicable to Exposure and Dose Reconstruction at DOE Facilities,`` grew out of several activities being conducted by the Principal Investigator Dr. F Owen Hoffman. One activity was originally part of the Chernobyl Studies Project and began as Task 7.1D, ``Internal Dose From Direct Contamination of Terrestrial Food Sources.`` The objective of Task 7.1D was to (1) establish a collaborative US USSR effort to improve and validate our methods of forecasting doses and dose commitments from the direct contamination of food sources, and (2) perform experiments and validation studies to improve our ability to predict rapidly and accurately the long-term internal dose from the contamination of agricultural soil. The latter was to include the consideration of remedial measures to block contamination of food grown on contaminated soil. The current objective of this project is to evaluate and validate pathway-assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities through use of international data sets. This project incorporates the activity of Task 7.1D into a multinational effort to evaluate data used for the prediction of radionuclide transfer through agricultural and aquatic systems to humans. It also includes participation in two multinational studies, BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) with the Swedish National Institute for Radiation Protection and VAMP (VAlidation of Model Predictions) with the International Atomic Energy Agency, that address testing the performance of models of radionuclide transport through foodchains.

  19. USEtox - The UNEP-SETAC toxicity model: recommended characterisation factors for human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.

    2010-01-01

    International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 13(7):532-toxic impacts in Life Cycle Assessment. Recommendations andof toxic impacts in Life Cycle Assessment. USEtox therefore

  20. A user's guide to the GoldSim/BLT-MS integrated software package:a low-level radioactive waste disposal performance assessment model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knowlton, Robert G.; Arnold, Bill Walter; Mattie, Patrick D.

    2007-03-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia), a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory, has over 30 years experience in the assessment of radioactive waste disposal and at the time of this publication is providing assistance internationally in a number of areas relevant to the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal systems. In countries with small radioactive waste programs, international technology transfer program efforts are often hampered by small budgets, schedule constraints, and a lack of experienced personnel. In an effort to surmount these difficulties, Sandia has developed a system that utilizes a combination of commercially available software codes and existing legacy codes for probabilistic safety assessment modeling that facilitates the technology transfer and maximizes limited available funding. Numerous codes developed and endorsed by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and codes developed and maintained by United States Department of Energy are generally available to foreign countries after addressing import/export control and copyright requirements. From a programmatic view, it is easier to utilize existing codes than to develop new codes. From an economic perspective, it is not possible for most countries with small radioactive waste disposal programs to maintain complex software, which meets the rigors of both domestic regulatory requirements and international peer review. Therefore, revitalization of deterministic legacy codes, as well as an adaptation of contemporary deterministic codes, provides a credible and solid computational platform for constructing probabilistic safety assessment models. This document is a reference users guide for the GoldSim/BLT-MS integrated modeling software package developed as part of a cooperative technology transfer project between Sandia National Laboratories and the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER) in Taiwan for the preliminary assessment of several candidate low-level waste repository sites. Breach, Leach, and Transport-Multiple Species (BLT-MS) is a U.S. NRC sponsored code which simulates release and transport of contaminants from a subsurface low-level waste disposal facility. GoldSim is commercially available probabilistic software package that has radionuclide transport capabilities. The following report guides a user through the steps necessary to use the integrated model and presents a successful application of the paradigm of renewing legacy codes for contemporary application.

  1. Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) : gap analysis for high fidelity and performance assessment code development.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Joon H.; Siegel, Malcolm Dean; Arguello, Jose Guadalupe, Jr.; Webb, Stephen Walter; Dewers, Thomas A.; Mariner, Paul E.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Fuller, Timothy J.; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Jove-Colon, Carlos F.; Wang, Yifeng

    2011-03-01

    This report describes a gap analysis performed in the process of developing the Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign. The goal of the Waste IPSC is to develop an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive waste storage or disposal system. The Waste IPSC will provide this simulation capability (1) for a range of disposal concepts, waste form types, engineered repository designs, and geologic settings, (2) for a range of time scales and distances, (3) with appropriate consideration of the inherent uncertainties, and (4) in accordance with rigorous verification, validation, and software quality requirements. The gap analyses documented in this report were are performed during an initial gap analysis to identify candidate codes and tools to support the development and integration of the Waste IPSC, and during follow-on activities that delved into more detailed assessments of the various codes that were acquired, studied, and tested. The current Waste IPSC strategy is to acquire and integrate the necessary Waste IPSC capabilities wherever feasible, and develop only those capabilities that cannot be acquired or suitably integrated, verified, or validated. The gap analysis indicates that significant capabilities may already exist in the existing THC codes although there is no single code able to fully account for all physical and chemical processes involved in a waste disposal system. Large gaps exist in modeling chemical processes and their couplings with other processes. The coupling of chemical processes with flow transport and mechanical deformation remains challenging. The data for extreme environments (e.g., for elevated temperature and high ionic strength media) that are needed for repository modeling are severely lacking. In addition, most of existing reactive transport codes were developed for non-radioactive contaminants, and they need to be adapted to account for radionuclide decay and in-growth. The accessibility to the source codes is generally limited. Because the problems of interest for the Waste IPSC are likely to result in relatively large computational models, a compact memory-usage footprint and a fast/robust solution procedure will be needed. A robust massively parallel processing (MPP) capability will also be required to provide reasonable turnaround times on the analyses that will be performed with the code. A performance assessment (PA) calculation for a waste disposal system generally requires a large number (hundreds to thousands) of model simulations to quantify the effect of model parameter uncertainties on the predicted repository performance. A set of codes for a PA calculation must be sufficiently robust and fast in terms of code execution. A PA system as a whole must be able to provide multiple alternative models for a specific set of physical/chemical processes, so that the users can choose various levels of modeling complexity based on their modeling needs. This requires PA codes, preferably, to be highly modularized. Most of the existing codes have difficulties meeting these requirements. Based on the gap analysis results, we have made the following recommendations for the code selection and code development for the NEAMS waste IPSC: (1) build fully coupled high-fidelity THCMBR codes using the existing SIERRA codes (e.g., ARIA and ADAGIO) and platform, (2) use DAKOTA to build an enhanced performance assessment system (EPAS), and build a modular code architecture and key code modules for performance assessments. The key chemical calculation modules will be built by expanding the existing CANTERA capabilities as well as by extracting useful components from other existing codes.

  2. A.24 ENHANCING THE CAPABILITY OF COMPUTATIONAL EARTH SYSTEM MODELS AND NASA DATA FOR OPERATION AND ASSESSMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A.24-1 A.24 ENHANCING THE CAPABILITY OF COMPUTATIONAL EARTH SYSTEM MODELS AND NASA DATA) computational support of Earth system modeling. #12;A.24-2 2.1 Acceleration of Operational Use of Research Data

  3. Assessment of Combustion and Turbulence Models for the Simulation of Combustion Processes in a DI Diesel Engine

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Various applied combustion and turbulence models were investigated along with chemical kinetic mechanisms simulating a biodiesel-fueled engine

  4. Development of a method for assessing non-targeted radiation damage in an artificial 3D human skin model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brenner, David Jonathan

    at doses as low as 0.1 Gy in the directly irradiated as well as in the bystander cells. Conclusions. #12;critical relevance in low-dose and/or non-Development of a method for assessing non-targeted radiation damage in an artificial 3D human skin

  5. Wind assessment in complex terrain with the numeric model Aiolos implementation of the influence of roughness changes and stability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    to the influence of roughness changes and the thermal stratification. Wind potential assessments of two sites of roughness changes on the terrain surface and thermal stratification of the at- mosphere are taken a neutral thermal stratification situation is assumed. But for a north eu- ropean situation a light stable

  6. ABSTRACT: The ability of a watershed model to mimic specified watershed processes is assessed through the calibration and valida-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chaubey, Indrajeet

    model was implemented in the Beaver Reservoir Watershed of Northwest Arkansas. The objectives were to model; (2) conduct sensitivity analysis; and (3) perform calibration and validation at three different of the model is a key factor in reducing uncertainty and increasing user confidence in its predictive abilities

  7. Application of Probabilistic Performance Assessment Modeling for Optimization of Maintenance Studies for Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites at the Nevada Test Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, B.; Yucel, V.; Rawlinson, S.; Black, P.; Carilli, J.; DiSanza, F.

    2002-02-25

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration of the Nevada Operations Office (NNSA/NV) operates and maintains two active facilities on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) that dispose defense-generated low-level radioactive waste (LLW), mixed radioactive waste, and ''classified waste'' in shallow trenches and pits. The operation and maintenance of the LLW disposal sites are self-regulated by the DOE under DOE Order 435.1. This Order requires formal review of a performance assessment (PA) and composite analysis (CA; assessment of all interacting radiological sources) for each LLW disposal system followed by an active maintenance program that extends through and beyond the site closure program. The Nevada disposal facilities continue to receive NTS-generated LLW and defense-generated LLW from across the DOE complex. The PA/CAs for the sites have been conditionally approved and the facilities are now under a formal maintenance program that requires testing of conceptual models, quantifying and attempting to reduce uncertainty, and implementing confirmatory and long-term background monitoring, all leading to eventual closure of the disposal sites. To streamline and reduce the cost of the maintenance program, the NNSA/NV is converting the deterministic PA/CAs to probabilistic models using GoldSim, a probabilistic simulation computer code. The output of probabilistic models will provide expanded information supporting long-term decision objectives of the NTS disposal sites.

  8. GBR 12909 administration as a mouse model of bipolar disorder mania: mimicking quantitative assessment of manic behavior

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Young, Jared W.; Goey, Andrew K.; Minassian, Arpi; Perry, William; Paulus, Martin P.; Geyer, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    INVESTIGATION GBR 12909 administration as a mouse model ofstudies, acute administration of 2.5 mg/kg amphetamine toet al. 2009). Acute administration of the DAT selective

  9. Evalutation and network of ec-decision support systems in the field of hydrological dispension models and of aquatic radioecological research Assessment of environmental models anf software

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monte, L; Hofman, Dimitry

    2005-01-01

    Evalutation and network of ec-decision support systems in the field of hydrological dispension models and of aquatic radioecological research

  10. Assessment of Current Process Modeling Approaches to Determine Their Limitations, Applicability and Developments Needed for Long-Fiber Thermoplastic Injection Molded Composites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nguyen, Ba Nghiep; Holbery, Jim; Smith, Mark T.; Kunc, Vlastimil; Norris, Robert E.; Phelps, Jay; Tucker III, Charles L.

    2006-11-30

    This report describes the status of the current process modeling approaches to predict the behavior and flow of fiber-filled thermoplastics under injection molding conditions. Previously, models have been developed to simulate the injection molding of short-fiber thermoplastics, and an as-formed composite part or component can then be predicted that contains a microstructure resulting from the constituents’ material properties and characteristics as well as the processing parameters. Our objective is to assess these models in order to determine their capabilities and limitations, and the developments needed for long-fiber injection-molded thermoplastics (LFTs). First, the concentration regimes are summarized to facilitate the understanding of different types of fiber-fiber interaction that can occur for a given fiber volume fraction. After the formulation of the fiber suspension flow problem and the simplification leading to the Hele-Shaw approach, the interaction mechanisms are discussed. Next, the establishment of the rheological constitutive equation is presented that reflects the coupled flow/orientation nature. The decoupled flow/orientation approach is also discussed which constitutes a good simplification for many applications involving flows in thin cavities. Finally, before outlining the necessary developments for LFTs, some applications of the current orientation model and the so-called modified Folgar-Tucker model are illustrated through the fiber orientation predictions for selected LFT samples.

  11. MELTER: A model of the thermal response of cargos transported in the Safe-Secure Trailer subject to fire environments for risk assessment applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, M.E.

    1994-08-01

    MELTER is an analysis of cargo responses inside a fire-threatened Safe-Secure Trailer (SST) developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA). Many simplifying assumptions are required to make the subject problem tractable. MELTER incorporates modeling which balances the competing requirements of execution speed, generality, completeness of essential physics, and robustness. Input parameters affecting the analysis include those defining the fire scenario, those defining the cargo loaded in the SST, and those defining properties of the SST. For a specified fire, SST, and cargo geometry MELTER predicts the critical fire duration that will lead to a failure. The principal features of the analysis include: (a) Geometric considerations to interpret fire-scenario descriptors in terms of a thermal radiation boundary condition, (b) a simple model of the SST`s wall combining the diffusion model for radiation through optically-thick media with an endothermic reaction front to describe the charring of dimensional, rigid foam in the SST wall, (c) a transient radiation enclosure model, (d) a one-dimensional, spherical idealization of the shipped cargos providing modularity so that cargos of interest can be inserted into the model, and (e) associated numerical methods to integrate coupled, differential equations and find roots.

  12. Assessing the Importance of Nonlinearities in the Development of a Substructure Model for the Wind Turbine CAE Tool FAST: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Damiani, R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Song, H.

    2013-03-01

    Design and analysis of wind turbines are performed using aero-servo-elastic tools that account for the nonlinear coupling between aerodynamics, controls, and structural response. The NREL-developed computer-aided engineering (CAE) tool FAST also resolves the hydrodynamics of fixed-bottom structures and floating platforms for offshore wind applications. This paper outlines the implementation of a structural-dynamics module (SubDyn) for offshore wind turbines with space-frame substructures into the current FAST framework, and focuses on the initial assessment of the importance of structural nonlinearities. Nonlinear effects include: large displacements, axial shortening due to bending, cross-sectional transverse shear effects, etc.

  13. Inter-comparison of Computer Codes for TRISO-based Fuel Micro-Modeling and Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brian Boer; Chang Keun Jo; Wen Wu; Abderrafi M. Ougouag; Donald McEachren; Francesco Venneri

    2010-10-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), the Deep Burn Pebble Bed Reactor (DB-PBR) and the Deep Burn Prismatic Block Reactor (DB-PMR) are all based on fuels that use TRISO particles as their fundamental constituent. The TRISO particle properties include very high durability in radiation environments, hence the designs reliance on the TRISO to form the principal barrier to radioactive materials release. This durability forms the basis for the selection of this fuel type for applications such as Deep Bun (DB), which require exposures up to four times those expected for light water reactors. It follows that the study and prediction of the durability of TRISO particles must be carried as part of the safety and overall performance characterization of all the designs mentioned above. Such evaluations have been carried out independently by the performers of the DB project using independently developed codes. These codes, PASTA, PISA and COPA, incorporate models for stress analysis on the various layers of the TRISO particle (and of the intervening matrix material for some of them), model for fission products release and migration then accumulation within the SiC layer of the TRISO particle, just next to the layer, models for free oxygen and CO formation and migration to the same location, models for temperature field modeling within the various layers of the TRISO particle and models for the prediction of failure rates. All these models may be either internal to the code or external. This large number of models and the possibility of different constitutive data and model formulations and the possibility of a variety of solution techniques makes it highly unlikely that the model would give identical results in the modeling of identical situations. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of an inter-comparison between the codes and to identify areas of agreement and areas that need reconciliation. The inter-comparison has been carried out by the cooperating institutions using a set of pre-defined TRISO conditions (burnup levels, temperature or power levels, etc.) and the outcome will be tabulated in the full length paper. The areas of agreement will be pointed out and the areas that require further modeling or reconciliation will be shown. In general the agreement between the codes is good within less than one order of magnitude in the prediction of TRISO failure rates.

  14. ASSESSMENT OF HOUSEHOLD CARBON FOOTPRINT REDUCTION POTENTIALS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masanet, Eric

    2010-01-01

    Input?Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO? LCA) model.  2006).  Environmental Life Cycle Assessment  of Goods and Economic Input?Output Life?Cycle Assessment  Greenhouse gas 

  15. Using Parametric and Residual-based Bootstrap to Assess the Absolute Goodness-of-fit for State Space Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gu, Fei

    2013-05-31

    In this work, two types of bootstrap methods are used to evaluate the absolute goodness-of-fit for the linear state space model. The first bootstrap is called parametric bootstrap, and the second one is called the ...

  16. Development of Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the Iron and Steel Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, T.T.; Sathaye, J.; Galitsky, C.

    2010-09-30

    Adoption of efficient end-use technologies is one of the key measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With the working of energy programs and policies on carbon regulation, how to effectively analyze and manage the costs associated with GHG reductions become extremely important for the industry and policy makers around the world. Energy-climate (EC) models are often used for analyzing the costs of reducing GHG emissions (e.g., carbon emission) for various emission-reduction measures, because an accurate estimation of these costs is critical for identifying and choosing optimal emission reduction measures, and for developing related policy options to accelerate market adoption and technology implementation. However, accuracies of assessing of GHG-emission reduction costs by taking into account the adoption of energy efficiency technologies will depend on how well these end-use technologies are represented in integrated assessment models (IAM) and other energy-climate models. In this report, we first conduct brief overview on different representations of end-use technologies (mitigation measures) in various energy-climate models, followed by problem statements, and a description of the basic concepts of quantifying the cost of conserved energy including integrating non-regrets options. A non-regrets option is defined as a GHG reduction option that is cost effective, without considering their additional benefits related to reducing GHG emissions. Based upon these, we develop information on costs of mitigation measures and technological change. These serve as the basis for collating the data on energy savings and costs for their future use in integrated assessment models. In addition to descriptions of the iron and steel making processes, and the mitigation measures identified in this study, the report includes tabulated databases on costs of measure implementation, energy savings, carbon-emission reduction, and lifetimes. The cost curve data on mitigation measures are available over time, which allows an estimation of technological change over a decade-long historical period. In particular, the report will describe new treatment of technological change in energy-climate modeling for this industry sector, i.e., assessing the changes in costs and energy-savings potentials via comparing 1994 and 2002 conservation supply curves. In this study, we compared the same set of mitigation measures for both 1994 and 2002 -- no additional mitigation measure for year 2002 was included due to unavailability of such data. Therefore, the estimated potentials in total energy savings and carbon reduction would most likely be more conservative for year 2002 in this study. Based upon the cost curves, the rate of change in the savings potential at a given cost can be evaluated and be used to estimate future rates of change that can be the input for energy-climate models. Through characterizing energy-efficiency technology costs and improvement potentials, we have developed and presented energy cost curves for energy efficiency measures applicable to the U.S. iron and steel industry for the years 1994 and 2002. The cost curves can change significantly under various scenarios: the baseline year, discount rate, energy intensity, production, industry structure (e.g., integrated versus secondary steel making and number of plants), efficiency (or mitigation) measures, share of iron and steel production to which the individual measures can be applied, and inclusion of other non-energy benefits. Inclusion of other non-energy benefits from implementing mitigation measures can reduce the costs of conserved energy significantly. In addition, costs of conserved energy (CCE) for individual mitigation measures increase with the increases in discount rates, resulting in a general increase in total cost of mitigation measures for implementation and operation with a higher discount rate. In 1994, integrated steel mills in the U.S. produced 55.

  17. Development of aircraft fuel burn modeling techniques with applications to global emissions modeling and assessment of the benefits of reduced vertical separation minimums

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yoder, Tim (Tim Alan)

    2007-01-01

    Given the current level of concern over anthropogenic climate change and the role of commercial aviation in this process, the ability to adequately model and quantify fuel burn and emissions on a system wide scale is of ...

  18. Use of international data sets to evaluate and validate pathway assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities. Progress report, March--May 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anspaugh, L.R.; Hendrickson, S.M.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1994-06-01

    The project described in this report was the result of a Memorandum of Cooperation between the US and the former-USSR following the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Unit 4. A joint program was established to improve the safety of nuclear power plants and to understand the implications of environmental releases. The task of Working Group 7 was ``to develop jointly methods to project rapidly the health effects of any future nuclear reactor accident.`` The current objective of this project is to evaluate and validate pathway-assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities through use of international data sets. This project incorporates data used for the prediction of radionuclide transfer through agricultural and aquatic systems to humans. It also includes participation in two multinational studies, BIOMOVS (Biospheric Model Validation Study) with the Swedish National Institute for Radiation Protection and VAMP (Validation of Model Predictions) with the International Atomic Energy Agency, that address testing the performance of models of radionuclide transport through foodchains. In the future, this project will be considered separately from the Chernobyl Studies Project and the essential activities of former Task 7.1D will be folded within the broader umbrella of the BIOMOVS and VAMP projects. The Working Group Leader of Task 7.1D will continue to provide oversight for this project.

  19. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of a small set of comprehensive event trees and fault trees and recommendation for future work.

  20. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  1. Development of custom fire behavior fuel models from FCCS fuelbeds for the Savannah River fuel assessment project.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Joe, H.

    2009-07-23

    The purpose of this project is to create fire behavior fuel models that replicate the fire behavior characteristics (spread rate and fireline intensity) produced by 23 candidate FCCS fuelbeds developed for the Savannah River National Wildlife Refuge. These 23 fuelbeds were created by FERA staff in consultation with local fuel managers. The FCCS produces simulations of surface fire spread rate and flame length (and therefore fireline intensity) for each of these fuelbeds, but it does not produce maps of those fire behavior characteristics or simulate fire growth—those tasks currently require the use of the FARSITE and/or FlamMap software systems. FARSITE and FlamMap do not directly use FCCS fuelbeds, but instead use standard or custom fire behavior fuel models to describe surface fuel characteristics for fire modeling. Therefore, replicating fire growth and fire behavior potential calculations using FCCS?simulated fire characteristics requires the development of custom fuel models that mimic, as closely as possible, the fire behavior characteristics produced by the FCCS for each fuelbed, over a range of fuel moisture and wind speeds.

  2. ASSESSING THE BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR TERMINATION: AN EXAMINATION OF THE PHILIPPINE-AMERICAN WAR, 1899-1902

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown, Adam David

    2008-05-27

    Through a detailed case study of the Philippine-American War (1899-1902), this thesis presents a test of the bargaining model of war termination. The study begins with a review of the war termination theory literature, tracing the currently dominant...

  3. Experiences with the Application of the Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model GESIMA for assessing Wind Potential in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Heinemann, Detlev

    .physik.uni-oldenburg.de/ehf *GKSS Research Center Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Straße 1, D-21494 Geesthacht, Germany To asses wind are lim- ited. Especially the accuracy of predictions with these models for wind energy applications Introduction After an enormous growth of wind energy use in Ger- manys coastal regions the inland becomes more

  4. An Alternative Solution for Modelling Lava Flow Path and Length: applied for hazard assessment at Hekla and Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    O'Hara, Mhairi

    2012-08-08

    are in extremely good agreement with the real flow fields, with an average accuracy of 94.42%. The Lava Flow model is also used to produce hazard maps for both Hekla and Eyjafjallajökull, by identifying zones on the volcanoes flanks that will confine the lava...

  5. Seismic risk assessment of spatially-distributed systems using ground-motion models fitted considering spatial correlation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Baker, Jack W.

    University, CA, USA ABSTRACT: Ground-motion models are commonly used in earthquake engineering to predict) at site j during earthquake i; f(PPPij,) denotes the ground-motion prediction function with predictive the probability distribution of the ground-motion intensity at a given site due to a particular earthquake event

  6. Likelihood-based gene annotations for gap filling and quality assessment in genome-scale metabolic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benedict, Matthew N.; Mundy, Michael B.; Henry, Christopher S.; Chia, Nicholas; Price, Nathan D.; Maranas, Costas D.

    2014-10-16

    Genome-scale metabolic models provide a powerful means to harness information from genomes to deepen biological insights. With exponentially increasing sequencing capacity, there is an enormous need for automated reconstruction techniques that can provide more accurate models in a short time frame. Current methods for automated metabolic network reconstruction rely on gene and reaction annotations to build draft metabolic networks and algorithms to fill gaps in these networks. However, automated reconstruction is hampered by database inconsistencies, incorrect annotations, and gap filling largely without considering genomic information. Here we develop an approach for applying genomic information to predict alternative functions for genes and estimate their likelihoods from sequence homology. We show that computed likelihood values were significantly higher for annotations found in manually curated metabolic networks than those that were not. We then apply these alternative functional predictions to estimate reaction likelihoods, which are used in a new gap filling approach called likelihood-based gap filling to predict more genomically consistent solutions. To validate the likelihood-based gap filling approach, we applied it to models where essential pathways were removed, finding that likelihood-based gap filling identified more biologically relevant solutions than parsimony-based gap filling approaches. We also demonstrate that models gap filled using likelihood-based gap filling provide greater coverage and genomic consistency with metabolic gene functions compared to parsimony-based approaches. Interestingly, despite these findings, we found that likelihoods did not significantly affect consistency of gap filled models with Biolog and knockout lethality data. This indicates that the phenotype data alone cannot necessarily be used to discriminate between alternative solutions for gap filling and therefore, that the use of other information is necessary to obtain a more accurate network. All described workflows are implemented as part of the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) and are publicly available via API or command-line web interface.

  7. Likelihood-based gene annotations for gap filling and quality assessment in genome-scale metabolic models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Benedict, Matthew N.; Mundy, Michael B.; Henry, Christopher S.; Chia, Nicholas; Price, Nathan D.; Maranas, Costas D.

    2014-10-16

    Genome-scale metabolic models provide a powerful means to harness information from genomes to deepen biological insights. With exponentially increasing sequencing capacity, there is an enormous need for automated reconstruction techniques that can provide more accurate models in a short time frame. Current methods for automated metabolic network reconstruction rely on gene and reaction annotations to build draft metabolic networks and algorithms to fill gaps in these networks. However, automated reconstruction is hampered by database inconsistencies, incorrect annotations, and gap filling largely without considering genomic information. Here we develop an approach for applying genomic information to predict alternative functions for genesmore »and estimate their likelihoods from sequence homology. We show that computed likelihood values were significantly higher for annotations found in manually curated metabolic networks than those that were not. We then apply these alternative functional predictions to estimate reaction likelihoods, which are used in a new gap filling approach called likelihood-based gap filling to predict more genomically consistent solutions. To validate the likelihood-based gap filling approach, we applied it to models where essential pathways were removed, finding that likelihood-based gap filling identified more biologically relevant solutions than parsimony-based gap filling approaches. We also demonstrate that models gap filled using likelihood-based gap filling provide greater coverage and genomic consistency with metabolic gene functions compared to parsimony-based approaches. Interestingly, despite these findings, we found that likelihoods did not significantly affect consistency of gap filled models with Biolog and knockout lethality data. This indicates that the phenotype data alone cannot necessarily be used to discriminate between alternative solutions for gap filling and therefore, that the use of other information is necessary to obtain a more accurate network. All described workflows are implemented as part of the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) and are publicly available via API or command-line web interface.« less

  8. Data Analysis, Pre-Ignition Assessment, and Post-Ignition Modeling of the Large-Scale Annular Cookoff Tests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G. Terrones; F.J. Souto; R.F. Shea; M.W.Burkett; E.S. Idar

    2005-09-30

    In order to understand the implications that cookoff of plastic-bonded explosive-9501 could have on safety assessments, we analyzed the available data from the large-scale annular cookoff (LSAC) assembly series of experiments. In addition, we examined recent data regarding hypotheses about pre-ignition that may be relevant to post-ignition behavior. Based on the post-ignition data from Shot 6, which had the most complete set of data, we developed an approximate equation of state (EOS) for the gaseous products of deflagration. Implementation of this EOS into the multimaterial hydrodynamics computer program PAGOSA yielded good agreement with the inner-liner collapse sequence for Shot 6 and with other data, such as velocity interferometer system for any reflector and resistance wires. A metric to establish the degree of symmetry based on the concept of time of arrival to pin locations was used to compare numerical simulations with experimental data. Several simulations were performed to elucidate the mode of ignition in the LSAC and to determine the possible compression levels that the metal assembly could have been subjected to during post-ignition.

  9. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-12-06

    This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

  10. Assessing the nonlinear response of fine particles to precursor emissions: Development and application of an extended response surface modeling technique v1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Xing, J.; Fu, K.; Fu, J. S.; Jang, C.; Zhu, Y.; Dong, X. Y.; Gao, Y.; Wu, W. J.; Wang, J. D.; Hao, J. M.

    2015-01-30

    An innovative extended response surface modeling technique (ERSM v1.0) is developed to characterize the nonlinear response of fine particles (PM???) to large and simultaneous changes of multiple precursor emissions from multiple regions and sectors. The ERSM technique is developed based on the conventional response surface modeling (RSM) technique; it first quantifies the relationship between PM??? concentrations and the emissions of gaseous precursors from each single region using the conventional RSM technique, and then assesses the effects of inter-regional transport of PM??? and its gaseous precursors on PM??? concentrations in the target region. We apply this novel technique with a widely used regional chemical transport model (CTM) over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of China, and evaluate the response of PM??? and its inorganic components to the emissions of 36 pollutant–region–sector combinations. The predicted PM??? concentrations agree well with independent CTM simulations; the correlation coefficients are larger than 0.98 and 0.99, and the mean normalized errors (MNEs) are less than 1 and 2% for January and August, respectively. It is also demonstrated that the ERSM technique could reproduce fairly well the response of PM??? to continuous changes of precursor emission levels between zero and 150%. Employing this new technique, we identify the major sources contributing to PM??? and its inorganic components in the YRD region. The nonlinearity in the response of PM??? to emission changes is characterized and the underlying chemical processes are illustrated.

  11. Assessing the nonlinear response of fine particles to precursor emissions: Development and application of an extended response surface modeling technique v1.0

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; State Environmental Protection Key Lab. of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing; Xing, J.; Fu, K.; Fu, J. S.; Jang, C.; Zhu, Y.; Dong, X. Y.; Gao, Y.; et al

    2015-01-30

    An innovative extended response surface modeling technique (ERSM v1.0) is developed to characterize the nonlinear response of fine particles (PM???) to large and simultaneous changes of multiple precursor emissions from multiple regions and sectors. The ERSM technique is developed based on the conventional response surface modeling (RSM) technique; it first quantifies the relationship between PM??? concentrations and the emissions of gaseous precursors from each single region using the conventional RSM technique, and then assesses the effects of inter-regional transport of PM??? and its gaseous precursors on PM??? concentrations in the target region. We apply this novel technique with a widelymore »used regional chemical transport model (CTM) over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of China, and evaluate the response of PM??? and its inorganic components to the emissions of 36 pollutant–region–sector combinations. The predicted PM??? concentrations agree well with independent CTM simulations; the correlation coefficients are larger than 0.98 and 0.99, and the mean normalized errors (MNEs) are less than 1 and 2% for January and August, respectively. It is also demonstrated that the ERSM technique could reproduce fairly well the response of PM??? to continuous changes of precursor emission levels between zero and 150%. Employing this new technique, we identify the major sources contributing to PM??? and its inorganic components in the YRD region. The nonlinearity in the response of PM??? to emission changes is characterized and the underlying chemical processes are illustrated.« less

  12. Assessing the nonlinear response of fine particles to precursor emissions: Development and application of an extended response surface modeling technique v1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhao, B. [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Wang, S. X. [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); State Environmental Protection Key Lab. of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing (China); Xing, J. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Fu, K. [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Fu, J. S. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Jang, C. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Zhu, Y. [South China Univ. of Technology (SCUT), Guangzhou (China); Dong, X. Y. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Gao, Y. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wu, W. J. [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Wang, J. D. [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Hao, J. M. [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); State Environmental Protection Key Lab. of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing (China)

    2015-01-01

    An innovative extended response surface modeling technique (ERSM v1.0) is developed to characterize the nonlinear response of fine particles (PM???) to large and simultaneous changes of multiple precursor emissions from multiple regions and sectors. The ERSM technique is developed based on the conventional response surface modeling (RSM) technique; it first quantifies the relationship between PM??? concentrations and the emissions of gaseous precursors from each single region using the conventional RSM technique, and then assesses the effects of inter-regional transport of PM??? and its gaseous precursors on PM??? concentrations in the target region. We apply this novel technique with a widely used regional chemical transport model (CTM) over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of China, and evaluate the response of PM??? and its inorganic components to the emissions of 36 pollutant–region–sector combinations. The predicted PM??? concentrations agree well with independent CTM simulations; the correlation coefficients are larger than 0.98 and 0.99, and the mean normalized errors (MNEs) are less than 1 and 2% for January and August, respectively. It is also demonstrated that the ERSM technique could reproduce fairly well the response of PM??? to continuous changes of precursor emission levels between zero and 150%. Employing this new technique, we identify the major sources contributing to PM??? and its inorganic components in the YRD region. The nonlinearity in the response of PM??? to emission changes is characterized and the underlying chemical processes are illustrated.

  13. Development of a Kelp-type Structure Module in a Coastal Ocean Model to Assess the Hydrodynamic Impact of Seawater Uranium Extraction Technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Taiping; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Long, Wen; Gill, Gary A.

    2014-02-07

    In recent years, with the rapid growth of global energy demand, the interest in extracting uranium from seawater for nuclear energy has been renewed. While extracting seawater uranium is not yet commercially viable, it serves as a “backstop” to the conventional uranium resources and provides an essentially unlimited supply of uranium resource. With recent advances in seawater uranium extraction technology, extracting uranium from seawater could be economically feasible when the extraction devices are deployed at a large scale (e.g., several hundred km2). There is concern however that the large scale deployment of adsorbent farms could result in potential impacts to the hydrodynamic flow field in an oceanic setting. In this study, a kelp-type structure module was incorporated into a coastal ocean model to simulate the blockage effect of uranium extraction devices on the flow field. The module was quantitatively validated against laboratory flume experiments for both velocity and turbulence profiles. The model-data comparison showed an overall good agreement and validated the approach of applying the model to assess the potential hydrodynamic impact of uranium extraction devices or other underwater structures in coastal oceans.

  14. SIMULATION MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE MOST PROMISING GEOLOGIC SEQUESTRATION FORMATION CANDIDATES IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION, USA, WITH FOCUS ON UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Si-Yong; Zaluski, Wade; Will, Robert; Eisinger, Chris; Matthews, Vince; McPherson, Brian

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to report results of reservoir model simulation analyses for forecasting subsurface CO2 storage capacity estimation for the most promising formations in the Rocky Mountain region of the USA. A particular emphasis of this project was to assess uncertainty of the simulation-based forecasts. Results illustrate how local-scale data, including well information, number of wells, and location of wells, affect storage capacity estimates and what degree of well density (number of wells over a fixed area) may be required to estimate capacity within a specified degree of confidence. A major outcome of this work was development of a new workflow of simulation analysis, accommodating the addition of “random pseudo wells” to represent virtual characterization wells.

  15. Assessment of Uncertainties in the Response of the African Monsoon Precipitation to Land Use change simulated by a regional model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

  16. Spin densities from subsystem density-functional theory: Assessment and application to a photosynthetic reaction center complex model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Solovyeva, Alisa [Gorlaeus Laboratories, Leiden Institute of Chemistry, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9502, 2300 RA Leiden (Netherlands); Technical University Braunschweig, Institute for Physical and Theoretical Chemistry, Hans-Sommer-Str. 10, 38106 Braunschweig (Germany); Pavanello, Michele [Gorlaeus Laboratories, Leiden Institute of Chemistry, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9502, 2300 RA Leiden (Netherlands); Neugebauer, Johannes [Technical University Braunschweig, Institute for Physical and Theoretical Chemistry, Hans-Sommer-Str. 10, 38106 Braunschweig (Germany)

    2012-05-21

    Subsystem density-functional theory (DFT) is a powerful and efficient alternative to Kohn-Sham DFT for large systems composed of several weakly interacting subunits. Here, we provide a systematic investigation of the spin-density distributions obtained in subsystem DFT calculations for radicals in explicit environments. This includes a small radical in a solvent shell, a {pi}-stacked guanine-thymine radical cation, and a benchmark application to a model for the special pair radical cation, which is a dimer of bacteriochlorophyll pigments, from the photosynthetic reaction center of purple bacteria. We investigate the differences in the spin densities resulting from subsystem DFT and Kohn-Sham DFT calculations. In these comparisons, we focus on the problem of overdelocalization of spin densities due to the self-interaction error in DFT. It is demonstrated that subsystem DFT can reduce this problem, while it still allows to describe spin-polarization effects crossing the boundaries of the subsystems. In practical calculations of spin densities for radicals in a given environment, it may thus be a pragmatic alternative to Kohn-Sham DFT calculations. In our calculation on the special pair radical cation, we show that the coordinating histidine residues reduce the spin-density asymmetry between the two halves of this system, while inclusion of a larger binding pocket model increases this asymmetry. The unidirectional energy transfer in photosynthetic reaction centers is related to the asymmetry introduced by the protein environment.

  17. Empirical, probabilistic, and modelling approaches to assess cross-media impacts to marine sediments at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rohrer, W.L.; Vita, C.L.; Schrock, W.; Leicht, G.

    1996-12-31

    Dredge spoils, industrial fill, and liquid wastes from the 1940s to 1970s have resulted in inorganic and organic contamination of soils, groundwater, and marine sediments near the U.S.S. Missouri and Charleston Beach parking lots at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard (PSNS), in Bremerton, Washington. Extensive collection of environmental data from several studies including the recently completed Remedial Investigation conducted under CERCLA have confirmed contaminant levels above federal risk screening levels and state regulatory criteria for several heavy metals and organic compounds, including pesticides and PCBs. Although the correlation between contamination in marine sediments and those in on-shore fill appears to be strong, there is little evidence that a viable transport pathway currently exists from soils to groundwater and thence to sediments. Several methods used to estimate chemical mass flux from soil to groundwater to sediments and marine waters of Sinclair Inlet are corroborative in this regard. Nonetheless, this result is vexing because present groundwater concentrations exceed ARARs, yet are below levels of concern in terms of mass flux to marine waters. Despite the marginal risks posed by groundwater, various remedial alternatives, including perimeter containment using a subsurface waste-stabilized containment wall, were evaluated to determine whether chemical flux could be reduced to levels below those observed at the present time. Three-dimensional flow modelling and transport modelling also confirmed that chemical fluxes were limited in magnitude and could be addressed with more conventional remedial approaches.

  18. Development and Demonstration of a Modeling Framework for Assessing the Efficacy of Using Mine Water for Thermoelectric Power Generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2010-03-01

    Thermoelectric power plants use large volumes of water for condenser cooling and other plant operations. Traditionally, this water has been withdrawn from the cleanest water available in streams and rivers. However, as demand for electrical power increases it places increasing demands on freshwater resources resulting in conflicts with other off stream water users. In July 2002, NETL and the Governor of Pennsylvania called for the use of water from abandoned mines to replace our reliance on the diminishing and sometimes over allocated surface water resource. In previous studies the National Mine Land Reclamation Center (NMLRC) at West Virginia University has demonstrated that mine water has the potential to reduce the capital cost of acquiring cooling water while at the same time improving the efficiency of the cooling process due to the constant water temperatures associated with deep mine discharges. The objectives of this project were to develop and demonstrate a user-friendly computer based design aid for assessing the costs, technical and regulatory aspects and potential environmental benefits for using mine water for thermoelectric generation. The framework provides a systematic process for evaluating the hydrologic, chemical, engineering and environmental factors to be considered in using mine water as an alternative to traditional freshwater supply. A field investigation and case study was conducted for the proposed 300 MW Beech Hollow Power Plant located in Champion, Pennsylvania. The field study based on previous research conducted by NMLRC identified mine water sources sufficient to reliably supply the 2-3,000gpm water supply requirement of Beech Hollow. A water collection, transportation and treatment system was designed around this facility. Using this case study a computer based design aid applicable to large industrial water users was developed utilizing water collection and handling principals derived in the field investigation and during previous studies of mine water and power plant cooling. Visual basic software was used to create general information/evaluation modules for a range of power plant water needs that were tested/verified against the Beech Hollow project. The program allows for consideration of blending mine water as needed as well as considering potential thermal and environmental benefits that can be derived from using constant temperature mine water. Users input mine water flow, quality, distance to source, elevations to determine collection, transport and treatment system design criteria. The program also evaluates low flow volumes and sustainable yields for various sources. All modules have been integrated into a seamless user friendly computer design aid and user's manual for evaluating the capital and operating costs of mine water use. The framework will facilitate the use of mine water for thermoelectric generation, reduce demand on freshwater resources and result in environmental benefits from reduced emissions and abated mine discharges.

  19. SIMPLIFIED PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR CO2 SEQUESTRATION PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT RESEARCH TOPICAL REPORT ON TASK #4 REDUCED-ORDER METHOD (ROM) BASED MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mishra, Srikanta; Jin, Larry; He, Jincong; Durlofsky, Louis

    2015-06-30

    Reduced-order models provide a means for greatly accelerating the detailed simulations that will be required to manage CO2 storage operations. In this work, we investigate the use of one such method, POD-TPWL, which has previously been shown to be effective in oil reservoir simulation problems. This method combines trajectory piecewise linearization (TPWL), in which the solution to a new (test) problem is represented through a linearization around the solution to a previously-simulated (training) problem, with proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), which enables solution states to be expressed in terms of a relatively small number of parameters. We describe the application of POD-TPWL for CO2-water systems simulated using a compositional procedure. Stanford’s Automatic Differentiation-based General Purpose Research Simulator (AD-GPRS) performs the full-order training simulations and provides the output (derivative matrices and system states) required by the POD-TPWL method. A new POD-TPWL capability introduced in this work is the use of horizontal injection wells that operate under rate (rather than bottom-hole pressure) control. Simulation results are presented for CO2 injection into a synthetic aquifer and into a simplified model of the Mount Simon formation. Test cases involve the use of time-varying well controls that differ from those used in training runs. Results of reasonable accuracy are consistently achieved for relevant well quantities. Runtime speedups of around a factor of 370 relative to full- order AD-GPRS simulations are achieved, though the preprocessing needed for POD-TPWL model construction corresponds to the computational requirements for about 2.3 full-order simulation runs. A preliminary treatment for POD-TPWL modeling in which test cases differ from training runs in terms of geological parameters (rather than well controls) is also presented. Results in this case involve only small differences between training and test runs, though they do demonstrate that the approach is able to capture basic solution trends. The impact of some of the detailed numerical treatments within the POD-TPWL formulation is considered in an Appendix. ii

  20. Technical Approach for Determining Key Parameters Needed for Modeling the Performance of Cast Stone for the Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yabusaki, Steven B.; Serne, R. Jeffrey; Rockhold, Mark L.; Wang, Guohui; Westsik, Joseph H.

    2015-03-30

    Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) and its contractors at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) are conducting a development program to develop / refine the cementitious waste form for the wastes treated at the ETF and to provide the data needed to support the IDF PA. This technical approach document is intended to provide guidance to the cementitious waste form development program with respect to the waste form characterization and testing information needed to support the IDF PA. At the time of the preparation of this technical approach document, the IDF PA effort is just getting started and the approach to analyze the performance of the cementitious waste form has not been determined. Therefore, this document looks at a number of different approaches for evaluating the waste form performance and describes the testing needed to provide data for each approach. Though the approach addresses a cementitious secondary aqueous waste form, it is applicable to other waste forms such as Cast Stone for supplemental immobilization of Hanford LAW. The performance of Cast Stone as a physical and chemical barrier to the release of contaminants of concern (COCs) from solidification of Hanford liquid low activity waste (LAW) and secondary wastes processed through the Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF) is of critical importance to the Hanford Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF) total system performance assessment (TSPA). The effectiveness of cementitious waste forms as a barrier to COC release is expected to evolve with time. PA modeling must therefore anticipate and address processes, properties, and conditions that alter the physical and chemical controls on COC transport in the cementitious waste forms over time. Most organizations responsible for disposal facility operation and their regulators support an iterative hierarchical safety/performance assessment approach with a general philosophy that modeling provides the critical link between the short-term understanding from laboratory and field tests, and the prediction of repository performance over repository time frames and scales. One common recommendation is that experiments be designed to permit the appropriate scaling in the models. There is a large contrast in the physical and chemical properties between the Cast Stone waste package and the IDF backfill and surrounding sediments. Cast Stone exhibits low permeability, high tortuosity, low carbonate, high pH, and low Eh whereas the backfill and native sediments have high permeability, low tortuosity, high carbonate, circumneutral pH, and high Eh. These contrasts have important implications for flow, transport, and reactions across the Cast Stone – backfill interface. Over time with transport across the interface and subsequent reactions, the sharp geochemical contrast will blur and there will be a range of spatially-distributed conditions. In general, COC mobility and transport will be sensitive to these geochemical variations, which also include physical changes in porosity and permeability from mineral reactions. Therefore, PA modeling must address processes, properties, and conditions that alter the physical and chemical controls on COC transport in the cementitious waste forms over time. Section 2 of this document reviews past Hanford PAs and SRS Saltstone PAs, which to date have mostly relied on the lumped parameter COC release conceptual models for TSPA predictions, and provides some details on the chosen values for the lumped parameters. Section 3 provides more details on the hierarchical modeling strategy and processes and mechanisms that control COC release. Section 4 summarizes and lists the key parameters for which numerical values are needed to perform PAs. Section 5 provides brief summaries of the methods used to measure the needed parameters and references to get more details.

  1. Development of a Model, Metal-reducing Microbial Community for a System Biology Level Assessment of Desulfovibrio vulgaris as part of a Community

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elias, Dwayne; Schadt, Christopher; Miller, Lance; Phelps, Tommy; Brown, S. D.; Arkin, Adam; Hazen, Terry; Drake, Megin; Yang, Z.K.; Podar, Mircea

    2010-05-17

    One of the largest experimental gaps is between the simplicity of pure cultures and the complexity of open environmental systems, particularly in metal-contaminated areas. These microbial communities form ecosystem foundations, drive biogeochemical processes, and are relevant for biotechnology and bioremediation. A model, metal-reducing microbial community was constructed as either syntrophic or competitive to study microbial cell to cell interactions, cell signaling and competition for resources. The microbial community was comprised of the metal-reducing Desulfovibrio vulgaris Hildenborough and Geobacter sulfurreducens PCA. Additionally, Methanococcus maripaludis S2 was added to study complete carbon reduction and maintain a low hydrogen partial pressure for syntrophism to occur. Further, considerable work has been published on D. vulgaris and the D. vulgaris/ Mc. maripaludis co-culture both with and without stress. We are extending this work by conducting the same stress conditions on the model community. Additionally, this comprehensive investigation includes physiological and metabolic analyses as well as specially designed mRNA microarrays with the genes for all three organisms on one slide so as to follow gene expression changes in the various cultivation conditions as well as being comparable to the co- and individual cultures. Further, state-of -the-art comprehensive AMT tag proteomics allows for these comparisons at the protein level for a systems biology assessment of a model, metal-reducing microbial community. Preliminary data revealed that lactate oxidation by D. vulgaris was sufficient to support both G. sulfurreducens and M. maripaludis via the excretion of H2 and acetate. Fumarate was utilized by G. sulfurreducens and reduced to succinate since neither of the other two organisms can reduce fumarate. Methane was quantified, suggesting acetate and H2 concentrations were sufficient for M. maripaludis. Steady state community cultivation will allow for a comprehensive, system biology level analysis of a metal-reducing microbial community.

  2. Consequence Assessment

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-08-21

    This volume focuses on the process of performing timely initial assessments necessary to support critical first decisions and the continuous process of refining those initial assessments as more information and resources become available. Canceled by DOE G 151.1-4.

  3. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. ; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  4. A compound power-law model for volcanic eruptions: Implications for risk assessment of volcanism at the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1994-10-17

    Much of the ongoing debate on the use of nuclear power plants in U.S.A. centers on the safe disposal of the radioactive waste. Congress, aware of the importance of the waste issue, passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, requiring the federal government to develop a geologic repository for the permanent disposal of high level radioactive wastes from civilian nuclear power plants. The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) in 1983 to identify potential sites. When OCRWM had selected three potential sites to study, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one of those sites, Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada. For a site to be acceptable, theses studies must demonstrate that the site could comply with regulations and guidelines established by the federal agencies that will be responsible for licensing, regulating, and managing the waste facility. Advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which bear on the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is readily recognized as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety because of the possibility of direct disruption of a repository site by volcanism. In particular, basaltic volcanism is regarded as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. In this paper, statistical analysis of volcanic hazard assessment at the Yucca Mountain site is discussed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP).

  5. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. A conceptual simulation model for release scenario analysis of a hypothetical site in Columbia Plateau Basalts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stottlemyre, J.A.; Petrie, G.M.; Benson, G.L.; Zellmer, J.T.

    1981-01-01

    This report is a status report for an evolving methodology for release scenario development for underground nuclear waste repositories. As such, it is intended for use as a reference point and a preliminary description of an evolving geoscience methodology. When completed this methodology will be used as a tool in developing disruptive release scenarios for analyzing the long-term safety of geological nuclear waste repositories. While a basalt environment is used as an example, this report is not intended to reflect an actual site safety assessment for a repository in a media. It is rather intended to present a methodology system framework and to provide discussions of the geological phenomena and parameters that must be addressed in order to develop a methodology for potential release scenarios. It is also important to note that the phenomena, their interrelationships, and their relative importance along with the overall current structure of the model will change as new geological information is gathered through additional peer review, geotechnical input, site specific field work, and related research efforts.

  6. Integrated assessment briefs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    Integrated assessment can be used to evaluate and clarify resource management policy options and outcomes for decision makers. The defining characteristics of integrated assessment are (1) focus on providing information and analysis that can be understood and used by decision makers rather than for merely advancing understanding and (2) its multidisciplinary approach, using methods, styles of study, and considerations from a broader variety of technical areas than would typically characterize studies produced from a single disciplinary standpoint. Integrated assessment may combine scientific, social, economic, health, and environmental data and models. Integrated assessment requires bridging the gap between science and policy considerations. Because not everything can be valued using a single metric, such as a dollar value, the integrated assessment process also involves evaluating trade-offs among dissimilar attributes. Scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recognized the importance and value of multidisciplinary approaches to solving environmental problems early on and have pioneered the development of tools and methods for integrated assessment over the past three decades. Major examples of ORNL`s experience in the development of its capabilities for integrated assessment are given.

  7. Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Assessing the...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessing the Outlook of US Oil Dependence Using Oil Security Metrics Model (OSMM) Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Assessing the Outlook of US Oil Dependence Using...

  8. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State...

  9. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative OE is leading a State Energy Risk...

  10. Climate Models An Assessment of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Laboratory Karen Fisher-Vanden Dartmouth College Brian P. Flannery Exxon-Mobil Corporation *William J

  11. Carbon Density and Anthropogenic Land Use Influences on Net Land-Use Change Emissions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Rothwell, Andrew J.

    2013-10-08

    We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate feedbacks, is 250 GtC over the last three hundred years. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for preindustrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP4.5 land-use scenario. This estimate of future uptake is lower than the native values from the GCAM integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product

  12. Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways in a World with Agricultural Climate Impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Mueller, C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-02-28

    This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.

  13. Air quality resolution for health impact assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Air quality resolution for health impact assessment: influence of regional characterstics* T to: discover new interactions among natural and human climate system components; objectively assess future; and improve methods to model, monitor and verify greenhouse gas emissions and climatic impacts

  14. Risk Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A set of issues that state and local governments should carefully consider, with the goal of helping them assess and anticipate solutions for some worst case or unfortunate case scenarios as they...

  15. Environmental Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    for the SAR. 2.2 Description of Alternatives. Alternative B - No Action The BLM NEPA Handbook (H-1790-1) states that for Environmental Assessments (EAs) on externally initiated...

  16. A method for the assessment of site-specific economic impacts of commercial and industrial biomass energy facilities. A handbook and computer model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-10-01

    A handbook on ``A Method for the Assessment of Site-specific Econoomic Impacts of Industrial and Commercial Biomass Energy Facilities`` has been prepared by Resource Systems Group Inc. under contract to the Southeastern Regional Biomass Energy Program (SERBEP). The handbook includes a user-friendly Lotus 123 spreadsheet which calculates the economic impacts of biomass energy facilities. The analysis uses a hybrid approach, combining direct site-specific data provided by the user, with indirect impact multipliers from the US Forest Service IMPLAN input/output model for each state. Direct economic impacts are determined primarily from site-specific data and indirect impacts are determined from the IMPLAN multipliers. The economic impacts are given in terms of income, employment, and state and federal taxes generated directly by the specific facility and by the indirect economic activity associated with each project. A worksheet is provided which guides the user in identifying and entering the appropriate financial data on the plant to be evaluated. The WLAN multipliers for each state are included in a database within the program. The multipliers are applied automatically after the user has entered the site-specific data and the state in which the facility is located. Output from the analysis includes a summary of direct and indirect income, employment and taxes. Case studies of large and small wood energy facilities and an ethanol plant are provided as examples to demonstrate the method. Although the handbook and program are intended for use by those with no previous experience in economic impact analysis, suggestions are given for the more experienced user who may wish to modify the analysis techniques.

  17. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Callaway, J.M.

    1982-08-01

    Alternative methods for quantifying the economic impacts associated with future increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ were examined. A literature search was undertaken, both to gain a better understanding of the ways in which CO/sub 2/ buildup could affect crop growth and to identify the different methods available for assessing the impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields. The second task involved identifying the scope of both the direct and indirect economic impacts that could occur as a result of CO/sub 2/-induced changes in crop yields. The third task then consisted of a comprehensive literature search to identify what types of economic models could be used effectively to assess the kinds of direct and indirect economic impacts that could conceivably occur as a result of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon national and multi-regional agricultural sector models, multi-country agricultural trade models, and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The fourth and final task of this research involved synthesizing the information gathered in the previous tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes related to agricultural production.

  18. MELCOR assessment at SNL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kmetyk, L. N.

    1992-01-01

    MELCOR is a fully integrated, engineering-level computer code that models the progression of severe accidents in light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants, being developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). The entire spectrum of severe accident phenomena, including reactor coolant system and containment thermal/hydraulic response, core heatup, degradation and relocation, and fission product release and transport, is treated in MELCOR in a unified framework for both boiling water reactors (BWRS) and pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The MELCOR computer code has been developed to the point that it is now being successfully applied in severe accident analyses, particularly in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies. MELCOR was the first of the severe accident analysis codes to undergo a formal peer review process. One of the major conclusions of the recent MELCOR Peer Review was the need for a more comprehensive and more systematic program of MELCOR assessment. A systematic program of code assessment provides a number of benefits, including: 1. guidance to the code developers in identification of areas where code improvements are needed (such as coding implementation errors in models, inappropriate or deficient models, missing models, excessive numerical sensitivities), 2. documented evidence to external observers, users, reviewers and project management that the code is modelling required phenomena correctly, and 3. increased general public acceptance that the code adequately treats issues related to public safety concerns.

  19. Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iyer, Gokul C.; Hultman, Nathan; Eom, Jiyong; McJeon, Haewon C.; Patel, Pralit L.; Clarke, Leon E.

    2015-01-01

    Stabilizing the global climate will require large-scale global deployment of low-carbon technologies. Even in the presence of aggressive climate policies, however, the diffusion of such technologies may be limited by several, institutional, behavioral, and social factors. In this paper, we review the literature on the sources of such diffusion constraints, and explore the potential implications of such non-economic constraints based on the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our analysis highlights that non-economic factors that limit technology deployment may have sizeable impacts on the feasibility and mitigation costs of achieving stringent stabilization targets. And such impacts are greatly amplified with major delays in serious climate policies. The results generally indicate that constraints on the expansions of CCS and renewables are more costly than those on nuclear or bioenergy, and jointly constraining these technologies leaves some scenarios infeasible.

  20. Dormant storage reliability assessments-data based

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merren, G.T.

    1981-01-01

    A relatively large amount of data pertaining to the performance of certain electronic parts after long periods of dormant storage has been collected and analyzed by the Reliability Department of Sandia National Laboratories. The failure models used by Sandia are presented and reliability assessments for selected electronic parts derived from these models and the measured performance data are provided. These data based assessments are compared to similar assessments derived from handbook calculations using the general data and models provided in the handbooks.

  1. thesis abstract: Assessing the effect of land-cover changes on species distributions: application of habitat models to conservation of Mediterranean bird communities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vallecillo, Sara

    2010-01-01

    ISSN 1948-6596 news and update thesis abstract Assessing theThe general aim of my thesis was to identify the ecologicalmain results from my PhD thesis derived in four manuscripts,

  2. Analyzing FLUENT CFD models and data to develop fundamental codes to assess the effects of graphite oxidation in an HTGR air ingress accident

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cochran, Caroline A

    2010-01-01

    The primary product of this thesis is a faster running computer code to model air ingress events in high temperature gas reactors as a potential subroutine for nodal codes such as MELCOR to model air ingress events. Because ...

  3. Model-data Fusion Approaches for Retrospective and Predictive Assessment of the Pan-Arctic Scale Permafrost Carbon Feedback to Global Climate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    representation of the Arctic system carbon cycle in Earth System Modeling frameworks. This proposed study of permafrost carbon processes in terrestrial biogeochemistry models, to operate within coupled Earth system modeling frameworks. PROJECT SIGNIFICANCE This work will provide a critical bridge between the abundant

  4. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technolgical, and socioeconomic futures in a regional intergrated-assessment model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Kyle, G. Page; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-05-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of the building stock, commercial equipment and household appliances can have a major impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Subnational regions such as U.S. states wish to increase their energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions or adapt to climate change. Evaluating subnational policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change may undercut such policies. Assessing these uncertainties can be a significant modeling and computation burden. As part of this uncertainty assessment, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy using fractional factorial methods can be applied to reveal the important drivers for detailed uncertainty analysis.

  5. Assessing Coronary Risk Assessment: What's Next?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fiscella, Kevin; Franks, Peter

    2010-01-01

    KZ, Steinman MA. Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs.Educa- tion Program risk assessment and potential for riskrecord-based cardiac risk assessment and identification of

  6. An Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home Room News Publications TraditionalWith PropaneNaturalTest YourProgramAmeswinsAmy RossAssessment

  7. Environmental Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home Room NewsInformation Current HABFES October 27th, 2010Environment, Health, SafetyThis isASSESSMENT

  8. Assessment Documents

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustmentsShirley Ann JacksonDepartment|Marketing, LLC | Department ofApps forLynn126 Assessment Documents en

  9. Performance Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home Room NewsInformationJesseworkSURVEYI/O StreamsParticipantsPartiesOriginalPerformance assessment (PA)

  10. Sleep Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservation ofAlbuquerque|Sensitive Species3 OutlookSize selectiveSleep Assessment 1 |

  11. Ecological Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological risk assessment is the appraisal of potential adverse effects of exposure to contaminants on plants and animals....

  12. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Geologic-simulation model for a hypothetical site in the Columbia Plateau. Volume 2: results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Foley, M.G.; Petrie, G.M.; Baldwin, A.J.; Craig, R.G.

    1982-06-01

    This report contains the input data and computer results for the Geologic Simulation Model. This model is described in detail in the following report: Petrie, G.M., et. al. 1981. Geologic Simulation Model for a Hypothetical Site in the Columbia Plateau, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, Washington. The Geologic Simulation Model is a quasi-deterministic process-response model which simulates, for a million years into the future, the development of the geologic and hydrologic systems of the ground-water basin containing the Pasco Basin. Effects of natural processes on the ground-water hydrologic system are modeled principally by rate equations. The combined effects and synergistic interactions of different processes are approximated by linear superposition of their effects during discrete time intervals in a stepwise-integration approach.

  13. Use of international data sets to evaluate and validate pathway assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities. Monthly progress reports and final report, October--December 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, F.O. [Senes Oak Ridge, Inc., TN (United States). Center for Risk Analysis

    1995-04-01

    The objective of Task 7.lD was to (1) establish a collaborative US-USSR effort to improve and validate our methods of forecasting doses and dose commitments from the direct contamination of food sources, and (2) perform experiments and validation studies to improve our ability to predict rapidly and accurately the long-term internal dose from the contamination of agricultural soil. At early times following an accident, the direct contamination of pasture and food stuffs, particularly leafy vegetation and grain, can be of great importance. This situation has been modeled extensively. However, models employed then to predict the deposition, retention and transport of radionuclides in terrestrial environments employed concepts and data bases that were more than a decade old. The extent to which these models have been tested with independent data sets was limited. The data gathered in the former-USSR (and elsewhere throughout the Northern Hemisphere) offered a unique opportunity to test model predictions of wet and dry deposition, agricultural foodchain bioaccumulation, and short- and long-term retention, redistribution, and resuspension of radionuclides from a variety of natural and artificial surfaces. The current objective of this project is to evaluate and validate pathway-assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities through use of international data sets. This project incorporates the activity of Task 7.lD into a multinational effort to evaluate models and data used for the prediction of radionuclide transfer through agricultural and aquatic systems to humans. It also includes participation in two studies, BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) with the Swedish National Institute for Radiation Protection and VAMP (VAlidation of Model Predictions) with the International Atomic Energy Agency, that address testing the performance of models of radionuclide transport through foodchains.

  14. USEtox - The UNEP-SETAC toxicity model: recommended characterisation factors for human toxicity and freshwater ecotoxicity in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.

    2010-01-01

    characterisation factors (CFs) is within a factor of 100-variation between the CFs of each model respectively. Thebeen used to calculate CFs for several thousand substances

  15. Why Risk Assessment? Because ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stølen, Ketil

    Why Risk Assessment? Because ... CORAS is committed to supporting international industry can take advantage of the CORAS technology in order to give their mission critical risk assessment assessment methodology integrating techniques and features from partly complementary risk assessment methods

  16. Assessor Training Assessment Techniques

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NVLAP Assessor Training Assessment Techniques: Communication Skills and Conducting an Assessment listener ·Knowledgeable Assessor Training 2009: Assessment Techniques: Communication Skills & Conducting, truthful, sincere, discrete · Diplomatic · Decisive · Selfreliant Assessor Training 2009: Assessment

  17. Recent Improvements in State-of-the-art Models for Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Applications to Both Large Historical and Future Case Studies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    and 2011 in the Japan Trench have demonstrated that tsunamis pose one of the major coastal hazards to human and efficient parallel implementation on large scale computer clusters of a new generation of fully nonlinear and dispersive long wave models, as well as non-hydrostatic three-dimensional models, and their application

  18. The feasibility assessment of a U.S. natural gas production reporting system uniform production reporting model. Final report, July 1993--June 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-06-01

    The Uniform Production Reporting Model (UPRM) project was charged with identifying the best practices and procedures of the natural gas producing states related to the gathering, management, and dissemination of production data. It is recommended that the producing states begin the process of upgrading state systems using the concepts embodied in the UPRM model.

  19. Neither in vivo MRI nor behavioural assessment indicate a therapeutic efficacy for a novel 5HT1A agonist in rat models of ischaemic stroke

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ashioti, Maria; Beech, John S.; Lowe, Andrew S.; Bernanos, Michel; McCreary, Andrew; Modo, Michel M.; Williams, Steve C. R.

    2009-07-16

    Abstract Background 5HT1A agonists have previously been shown to promote recovery in animal models of stroke using ex vivo outcome measures which have raised the hopes for a potential clinical implementation. The purpose of this study...

  20. Assessing the economic impact of indirect liquefaction process improvements: Volume 1, Development of the integrated indirect liquefaction model and baseline case

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gray, D.; Tomlinson, G.C. (Mitre Corp., McLean, VA (USA). Civil Systems Div.)

    1990-10-01

    This report documents the development of an integrated indirect liquefaction system model, which processes input coal to refined liquid products, and the model's application in the analysis of a baseline case. The baseline case uses Shell gasification of coal followed by gas cleaning to produce a clean synthesis gas for slurry-phase Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. The raw liquid products are refined to produce gasoline and diesel. Costs of liquid products have been estimated for the baseline plant. The model also alloys many sensitivity studies to be performed so that the economic impacts of research and development advances can be quantified. When used in this manner, the model can provide research guidance for future indirect liquefaction studies. 18 refs., 12 figs., 12 tabs.

  1. Potential impacts of climate change on tropospheric ozone in California: A preliminary episodic modeling assessment of the Los Angeles basin and the Sacramento valley

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Taha, Haider

    2001-01-01

    1700 PDT, July 13) in the Sacramento Valley, for cases CCMA1700 PDT, July 13) in the Sacramento Valley, for cases HCMBoard (CARB) 1995. “Sacramento Area Modeling Analysis for

  2. An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model ...

  3. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  4. Assessing the CAM5 Physics Suite in the WRF-Chem Model: Implementation, Resolution Sensitivity, and a First Evaluation for a Regional Case Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Fast, Jerome D.; Easter, Richard C.; Gustafson, William I.; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Singh, Balwinder

    2014-05-06

    A suite of physical parameterizations (deep and shallow convection, turbulent boundary layer, aerosols, cloud microphysics, and cloud fraction) from the global climate model Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5) has been implemented in the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting with chemistry (WRF-Chem). A downscaling modeling framework with consistent physics has also been established in which both global and regional simulations use the same emissions and surface fluxes. The WRF-Chem model with the CAM5 physics suite is run at multiple horizontal resolutions over a domain encompassing the northern Pacific Ocean, northeast Asia, and northwest North America for April 2008 when the ARCTAS, ARCPAC, and ISDAC field campaigns took place. These simulations are evaluated against field campaign measurements, satellite retrievals, and ground-based observations, and are compared with simulations that use a set of common WRF-Chem Parameterizations. This manuscript describes the implementation of the CAM5 physics suite in WRF-Chem provides an overview of the modeling framework and an initial evaluation of the simulated meteorology, clouds, and aerosols, and quantifies the resolution dependence of the cloud and aerosol parameterizations. We demonstrate that some of the CAM5 biases, such as high estimates of cloud susceptibility to aerosols and the underestimation of aerosol concentrations in the Arctic, can be reduced simply by increasing horizontal resolution. We also show that the CAM5 physics suite performs similarly to a set of parameterizations commonly used in WRF-Chem, but produces higher ice and liquid water condensate amounts and near-surface black carbon concentration. Further evaluations that use other mesoscale model parameterizations and perform other case studies are needed to infer whether one parameterization consistently produces results more consistent with observations.

  5. Enjebi Island dose assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robison, W.L.; Conrado, C.L.; Phillips, W.A.

    1987-07-01

    We have updeated the radiological dose assessment for Enjebi Island at Enewetak Atoll using data derived from analysis of food crops grown on Enjebi. This is a much more precise assessment of potential doses to people resettling Enjebi Island than the 1980 assessment in which there were no data available from food crops on Enjebi. Details of the methods and data used to evaluate each exposure pathway are presented. The terrestrial food chain is the most significant potential exposure pathway and /sup 137/Cs is the radionuclide responsible for most of the estimated dose over the next 50 y. The doses are calculated assuming a resettlement date of 1990. The average wholebody maximum annual estimated dose equivalent derived using our diet model is 166 mremy;the effective dose equivalent is 169 mremy. The estimated 30-, 50-, and 70-y integral whole-body dose equivalents are 3.5 rem, 5.1 rem, and 6.2 rem, respectively. Bone-marrow dose equivalents are only slightly higher than the whole-body estimates in each case. The bone-surface cells (endosteal cells) receive the highest dose, but they are a less sensitive cell population and are less sensitive to fatal cancer induction than whole body and bone marrow. The effective dose equivalents for 30, 50, and 70 y are 3.6 rem, 5.3 rem, and 6.6 rem, respectively. 79 refs., 17 figs., 24 tabs

  6. Predictive usage mining for life cycle assessment Jungmok Ma a

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kim, Harrison

    Predictive usage mining for life cycle assessment Jungmok Ma a , Harrison M. Kim b, a Department e i n f o Article history: Keywords: Life cycle assessment Usage modeling Time series segmentation Time series analysis a b s t r a c t The usage modeling in life cycle assessment (LCA) is rarely

  7. Facility Environmental Vulnerability Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Hoesen, S.D.

    2001-07-09

    From mid-April through the end of June 2001, a Facility Environmental Vulnerability Assessment (FEVA) was performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The primary goal of this FEVA was to establish an environmental vulnerability baseline at ORNL that could be used to support the Laboratory planning process and place environmental vulnerabilities in perspective. The information developed during the FEVA was intended to provide the basis for management to initiate immediate, near-term, and long-term actions to respond to the identified vulnerabilities. It was expected that further evaluation of the vulnerabilities identified during the FEVA could be carried out to support a more quantitative characterization of the sources, evaluation of contaminant pathways, and definition of risks. The FEVA was modeled after the Battelle-supported response to the problems identified at the High Flux Beam Reactor at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This FEVA report satisfies Corrective Action 3A1 contained in the Corrective Action Plan in Response to Independent Review of the High Flux Isotope Reactor Tritium Leak at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, submitted to the Department of Energy (DOE) ORNL Site Office Manager on April 16, 2001. This assessment successfully achieved its primary goal as defined by Laboratory management. The assessment team was able to develop information about sources and pathway analyses although the following factors impacted the team's ability to provide additional quantitative information: the complexity and scope of the facilities, infrastructure, and programs; the significantly degraded physical condition of the facilities and infrastructure; the large number of known environmental vulnerabilities; the scope of legacy contamination issues [not currently addressed in the Environmental Management (EM) Program]; the lack of facility process and environmental pathway analysis performed by the accountable line management or facility owner; and poor facility and infrastructure drawings. The assessment team believes that the information, experience, and insight gained through FEVA will help in the planning and prioritization of ongoing efforts to resolve environmental vulnerabilities at UT-Battelle--managed ORNL facilities.

  8. ASSESSMENT OF COMBINED HEAT AND POWER SYSTEM "PREMIUM POWER" APPLICATIONS IN CALIFORNIA

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Norwood, Zack

    2010-01-01

    Modeling with Combined Heat and Power Applications. LawrenceASSESSMENT OF COMBINED HEAT AND POWER SYSTEM “PREMIUM POWER”2010 ASSESSMENT OF COMBINED HEAT AND POWER SYSTEM “PREMIUM

  9. Explanation of Significant Differences Between Models used to Assess Groundwater Impacts for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste and Greater-Than-Class C-Like Waste Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0375-D) and the

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Annette Schafer; Arthur S. Rood; A. Jeffrey Sondrup

    2011-08-01

    Models have been used to assess the groundwater impacts to support the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C (GTCC) Low-Level Radioactive Waste and GTCC-Like Waste (DOE-EIS 2011) for a facility sited at the Idaho National Laboratory and the Environmental Assessment for the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Project (INL 2011). Groundwater impacts are primarily a function of (1) location determining the geologic and hydrologic setting, (2) disposal facility configuration, and (3) radionuclide source, including waste form and release from the waste form. In reviewing the assumptions made between the model parameters for the two different groundwater impacts assessments, significant differences were identified. This report presents the two sets of model assumptions and discusses their origins and implications for resulting dose predictions. Given more similar model parameters, predicted doses would be commensurate.

  10. Forest fires: from economic assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pettenella, Davide

    1 Forest fires: from economic assessment to governance Laura Secco, Davide Pettenella and Mauro context) Contribute of ongoing research (A model to quantify forest fires costs) Proposal for future research (An ACF approach to stakeholders analysis) Final remarks Background Background - 1 Forest fires

  11. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF COMPOSITE PLATE STRUCTURES WITH UNCERTAINTY Chandrashekhar M.* , Ranjan Uncertainties associated with a structural model and measured vibration data may lead to unreliable damage that material uncertainties in composite structures cause considerable problem in damage assessment which can

  12. 14th Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes 2-6 October 2011, Kos, Greece THE "VOTRE AIR" PROJECT : DEVELOPMENT OF A MODELLING TOOL TO ASSESS THE REAL

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mallet, Vivien

    resolution modelling tools like Urban'Air well reproduce the spatial distribution of atmospheric pollutants OF THE SYSTEM The "Votre Air" project has been designed to monitor the atmospheric pollution over Paris center of pollutants concentrations computed by the air dispersion model are immediately corrected by the assimilation

  13. Final report on activities and findings under DOE grant “Interactive Photochemistry in Earth System Models to Assess Uncertainty in Ozone and Greenhouse Gases”

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prather, Michael J.

    2014-11-07

    Atmospheric chemistry controls the abundances and hence climate forcing of important greenhouse gases including N2O, CH4, HFCs, CFCs, and O3. Attributing climate change to human activities requires, at a minimum, accurate models of the chemistry and circulation of the atmosphere that relate emissions to abundances. This DOE-funded research provided realistic, yet computationally optimized and affordable, photochemical modules to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that augment the CESM capability to explore the uncertainty in future stratospheric-tropospheric ozone, stratospheric circulation, and thus the lifetimes of chemically controlled greenhouse gases from climate simulations. To this end, we have successfully implemented Fast-J (radiation algorithm determining key chemical photolysis rates) and Linoz v3.0 (linearized photochemistry for interactive O3, N2O, NOy and CH4) packages in LLNL-CESM and for the first time demonstrated how change in O2 photolysis rate within its uncertainty range can significantly impact on the stratospheric climate and ozone abundances. From the UCI side, this proposal also helped LLNL develop a CAM-Superfast Chemistry model that was implemented for the IPCC AR5 and contributed chemical-climate simulations to CMIP5.

  14. Survey of Biomass Resource Assessments and Assessment Capabilities...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Survey of Biomass Resource Assessments and Assessment Capabilities in APEC Economies Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Survey of Biomass Resource Assessments and Assessment...

  15. Northwest Energy Market Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Treaty Storage Agreement Non-Wires Northwest Energy Market Assessment Oversupply Smart Grid Wind Integration Northwest Energy Market Assessment Since 2012, the Northwest Power...

  16. Privacy Impact Assessment

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    No hand-written submissions will be accepted. This template may not be modified. MODULE I - PRIVACY NEEDS ASSESSMENT Date Date the assessment was completed. Departmental...

  17. University of New Mexico--Assessment O:\\Assessment\\Assessing Assessment\\Annual State of Assessment Report to the Provost -2014.docx

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    New Mexico, University of

    University of New Mexico--Assessment O:\\Assessment\\Assessing Assessment\\Annual State of Assessment assessment by college. The New Mexico Higher Education Assessment and Retention (NMHEAR) Conference took in the third week of April, 2014. #12;University of New Mexico--Assessment O:\\Assessment\\Assessing Assessment

  18. Documentation for a Model: A Hierarchical Approach

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoffman, Karla

    of Energy (DOE). In 1979 we provided a third party I assessment of a large-scale forecast model2of oil words and phrases: model documenta- tion, model evaluation and assessment, policy model utility CR. The authors discuss the role of models in the policy process and of documentation in the assessment

  19. Sandia Energy - Solar Resource Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Solar Resource Assessment Home Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Photovoltaics Solar Resource Assessment Solar Resource AssessmentTara...

  20. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  1. Chevron: Refinery Identifies $4.4 Million in Annual Savings by Using Process Simulation Models to Perform Energy-Efficiency Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2004-05-01

    In an energy-efficiency study at its refinery near Salt Lake City, Utah, Chevron focused on light hydrocarbons processing. The company found it could recover hydrocarbons from its fuel gas system and sell them. By using process simulation models of special distillation columns and associated reboilers and condensers, Chevron could predict the performance of potential equipment configuration changes and process modifications. More than 25,000 MMBtu in natural gas could be saved annually if a debutanizer upgrade project and a new saturated gas plant project were completed. Together, these projects would save $4.4 million annually.

  2. Comprehensive Energy Assessment: EE and RE Project Optimization Modeling for United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brigantic, Robert T.; Papatyi, Anthony F.; Perkins, Casey J.

    2010-09-30

    This report summarizes a study and corresponding model development conducted in support of the United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) as part of the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (ARRA). This research was aimed at developing a mathematical programming framework and accompanying optimization methodology in order to simultaneously evaluate energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) opportunities. Once developed, this research then demonstrated this methodology at a USPACOM installation - Camp H.M. Smith, Hawaii. We believe this is the first time such an integrated, joint EE and RE optimization methodology has been constructed and demonstrated.

  3. D&D and Risk Assessment Tools

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    ORISE and PNNL both developed tools to assist in the risk assessment and planning of D&D activities. PNNL developed a Risk D&D tool, a rapid prototype computerbased model, to evaluate...

  4. Assessment of Supply Chain Energy Efficiency Potentials: A U.S. Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masanet, Eric

    2010-01-01

    Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Goods and Services:Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) model.Index Terms—Life- cycle assessment, energy efficiency,

  5. An Indigenous Application for Estimating Carbon footprint of academia library systems based on life cycle assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garg, Saurabh; David Dornfeld

    2008-01-01

    Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) model”, http://SYSTEMS BASED ON LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT Garg S. , Dornfeld D.based on a thorough Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of all the

  6. An Indigenous Application for Estimating Carbon footprint of academia library systems based on life cycle assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Garg, Saurabh; David Dornfeld

    2008-01-01

    Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) model”, http://www.eiolca.net/,Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of all the components of aLife Cycle Assessment (LCA), Carbon Footprint, Embodied

  7. Agricultural production in the United States by county: a compilation of information from the 1974 census of agriculture for use in terrestrial food-chain transport and assessment models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shor, R.W.; Baes, C.F. III; Sharp, R.D.

    1982-01-01

    Terrestrial food-chain models that simulate the transport of environmentally released radionuclides incorporate parameters describing agricultural production and practice. Often a single set of default parameters, such as that listed in USNRC Regulatory Guide 1.109, is used in lieu of site-specific information. However, the geographical diversity of agricultural practice in the United States suggests the limitations of a single set of default parameters for assessment models. This report documents default parameters with a county-wide resolution based on analysis of the 1974 US Census of Agriculture for use in terrestrial food chain models. Data reported by county, together with state-based information from the US Department of Agriculture, Economic and Statistics Service, provided the basis for estimates of model input parameters. This report also describes these data bases, their limitations, and lists default parameters by county. Vegetable production is described for four categories: leafy vegetables; vegetables and fruits exposed to airborne material; vegetables, fruits, and nuts protected from airborne materials; and grains. Livestock feeds were analyzed in categories of hay, silage, pasture, and grains. Pasture consumption was estimated from cattle and sheep inventories, their feed requirements, and reported quantities of harvested forage. The results were compared with assumed yields of the pasture areas reported. In addition, non-vegetable food production estimates including milk, beef, pork, lamb, poultry, eggs, goat milk, and honey are described. The agricultural parameters and land use information - in all 47 items - are tabulated in four appendices for each of the 3067 counties of the US reported to the Census of Agriculture, excluding those in Hawaii and Alaska.

  8. Improving in vitro Sertoli cell/gonocyte co-culture model for assessing male reproductive toxicity: Lessons learned from comparisons of cytotoxicity versus genomic responses to phthalates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu Xiaozhong; Hong, Sung Woo; Moreira, Estefania G.; Faustman, Elaine M.

    2009-09-15

    Gonocytes exist in the neonatal testis and represent a transient population of male germ-line stem cells. It has been shown that stem cell self-renewal and progeny production is probably controlled by the neighboring differentiated cells and extracellular matrix (ECM) in vivo known as niches. Recently, we developed an in vitro three-dimensional (3D) Sertoli cell/gonocyte co-culture (SGC) model with ECM overlay, which creates an in vivo-like niche and supports germ-line stem cell functioning within a 3D environment. In this study, we applied morphological and cytotoxicity evaluations, as well as microarray-based gene expression to examine the effects of different phthalate esters (PE) on this model. Known in vivo male developmentally toxic PEs (DTPE) and developmentally non-toxic PEs (DNTPE) were evaluated. We observed that DTPE induced significantly greater dose-dependent morphological changes, a decrease in cell viability and an increase in cytotoxicity compared to those treated with DNTPE. Moreover, the gene expression was more greatly altered by DTPE than by DNTPE and non-supervised cluster analysis allowed the discrimination of DTPE from the DNTPE. Our systems-based GO-Quant analysis showed significant alterations in the gene pathways involved in cell cycle, phosphate transport and apoptosis regulation with DTPE but not with DNTPE treatment. Disruptions of steroidogenesis related-gene expression such as Star, Cyp19a1, Hsd17b8, and Nr4a3 were observed in the DTPE group, but not in the DNTPE group. In summary, our observation on cell viability, cytotoxicity, and microarray-based gene expression analysis induced by PEs demonstrate that our in vitro 3D-SGC system mimicked in vivo responses for PEs and suggests that the 3D-SGC system might be useful in identifying developmental reproductive toxicants.

  9. Risk Assessment Fact Sheet

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    US Army Corps of Engineers

    Risk Assessment ® Fact Sheet U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Building Strong ® Buffalo District June 2012 Risk Assessment A risk assessment is performed for hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste sites and chemicals in the environment. Information from the risk assessment is used to determine whether action

  10. Portsmouth Needs Assessment

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Needs Assessment for former Oak Ridge K-25, Paducah, and Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant production workers.

  11. Paducah Needs Assessment

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Needs Assessment for former Oak Ridge K-25, Paducah, and Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant production workers.

  12. Development of Science-Based Permitting Guidance for Geological Sequestration of CO2 in Deep Saline Aquifers Based on Modeling and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jean-Philippe Nicot; Renaud Bouroullec; Hugo Castellanos; Susan Hovorka; Srivatsan Lakshminarasimhan; Jeffrey Paine

    2006-06-30

    Underground carbon storage may become one of the solutions to address global warming. However, to have an impact, carbon storage must be done at a much larger scale than current CO{sub 2} injection operations for enhanced oil recovery. It must also include injection into saline aquifers. An important characteristic of CO{sub 2} is its strong buoyancy--storage must be guaranteed to be sufficiently permanent to satisfy the very reason that CO{sub 2} is injected. This long-term aspect (hundreds to thousands of years) is not currently captured in legislation, even if the U.S. has a relatively well-developed regulatory framework to handle carbon storage, especially in the operational short term. This report proposes a hierarchical approach to permitting in which the State/Federal Government is responsible for developing regional assessments, ranking potential sites (''General Permit'') and lessening the applicant's burden if the general area of the chosen site has been ranked more favorably. The general permit would involve determining in the regional sense structural (closed structures), stratigraphic (heterogeneity), and petrophysical (flow parameters such as residual saturation) controls on the long-term fate of geologically sequestered CO{sub 2}. The state-sponsored regional studies and the subsequent local study performed by the applicant will address the long-term risk of the particular site. It is felt that a performance-based approach rather than a prescriptive approach is the most appropriate framework in which to address public concerns. However, operational issues for each well (equivalent to the current underground injection control-UIC-program) could follow regulations currently in place. Area ranking will include an understanding of trapping modes. Capillary (due to residual saturation) and structural (due to local geological configuration) trappings are two of the four mechanisms (the other two are solubility and mineral trappings), which are the most relevant to the time scale of interest. The most likely pathways for leakage, if any, are wells and faults. We favor a defense-in-depth approach, in which storage permanence does not rely upon a primary seal only but assumes that any leak can be contained by geologic processes before impacting mineral resources, fresh ground water, or ground surface. We examined the Texas Gulf Coast as an example of an attractive target for carbon storage. Stacked sand-shale layers provide large potential storage volumes and defense-in-depth leakage protection. In the Texas Gulf Coast, the best way to achieve this goal is to establish the primary injection level below the total depth of most wells (>2,400 m-8,000 ft). In addition, most faults, particularly growth faults, present at the primary injection level do not reach the surface. A potential methodology, which includes an integrated approach comprising the whole chain of potential events from leakage from the primary site to atmospheric impacts, is also presented. It could be followed by the State/Federal Government, as well as by the operators.

  13. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  14. Assessing Thermo-Hydrodynamic-Chemical Processes at the Dixie...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Sainsbury,Joe Iovenitti,B. Mack Kennedy. 2013. Assessing Thermo-Hydrodynamic-Chemical Processes at the Dixie Valley Geothermal Area- A Reactive Transport Modeling...

  15. A Resilient Condition Assessment Monitoring System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Humberto Garcia; Wen-Chiao Lin; Semyon M. Meerkov

    2012-08-01

    An architecture and supporting methods are presented for the implementation of a resilient condition assessment monitoring system that can adaptively accommodate both cyber and physical anomalies to a monitored system under observation. In particular, the architecture includes three layers: information, assessment, and sensor selection. The information layer estimates probability distributions of process variables based on sensor measurements and assessments of the quality of sensor data. Based on these estimates, the assessment layer then employs probabilistic reasoning methods to assess the plant health. The sensor selection layer selects sensors so that assessments of the plant condition can be made within desired time periods. Resilient features of the developed system are then illustrated by simulations of a simplified power plant model, where a large portion of the sensors are under attack.

  16. Distributed road assessment system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Beer, N. Reginald; Paglieroni, David W

    2014-03-25

    A system that detects damage on or below the surface of a paved structure or pavement is provided. A distributed road assessment system includes road assessment pods and a road assessment server. Each road assessment pod includes a ground-penetrating radar antenna array and a detection system that detects road damage from the return signals as the vehicle on which the pod is mounted travels down a road. Each road assessment pod transmits to the road assessment server occurrence information describing each occurrence of road damage that is newly detected on a current scan of a road. The road assessment server maintains a road damage database of occurrence information describing the previously detected occurrences of road damage. After the road assessment server receives occurrence information for newly detected occurrences of road damage for a portion of a road, the road assessment server determines which newly detected occurrences correspond to which previously detected occurrences of road damage.

  17. Resource Assessment Overview and MIT Full Breeze Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Resource Assessment Overview and MIT Full Breeze Case Study Cy Chan, EECS PhD Candidate Wind Energy Projects in Action MIT Wind Week ­ January 18, 2011 #12;Resource Assessment · Characterize the wind ­ Uncertainty: data, model · Talk focus: wind speed and direction #12;Assessment Techniques · Statistical

  18. Nuclear Nonproliferation Ontology Assessment Team Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strasburg, Jana D.; Hohimer, Ryan E.

    2012-01-01

    Final Report for the NA22 Simulations, Algorithm and Modeling (SAM) Ontology Assessment Team's efforts from FY09-FY11. The Ontology Assessment Team began in May 2009 and concluded in September 2011. During this two-year time frame, the Ontology Assessment team had two objectives: (1) Assessing the utility of knowledge representation and semantic technologies for addressing nuclear nonproliferation challenges; and (2) Developing ontological support tools that would provide a framework for integrating across the Simulation, Algorithm and Modeling (SAM) program. The SAM Program was going through a large assessment and strategic planning effort during this time and as a result, the relative importance of these two objectives changed, altering the focus of the Ontology Assessment Team. In the end, the team conducted an assessment of the state of art, created an annotated bibliography, and developed a series of ontological support tools, demonstrations and presentations. A total of more than 35 individuals from 12 different research institutions participated in the Ontology Assessment Team. These included subject matter experts in several nuclear nonproliferation-related domains as well as experts in semantic technologies. Despite the diverse backgrounds and perspectives, the Ontology Assessment team functioned very well together and aspects could serve as a model for future inter-laboratory collaborations and working groups. While the team encountered several challenges and learned many lessons along the way, the Ontology Assessment effort was ultimately a success that led to several multi-lab research projects and opened up a new area of scientific exploration within the Office of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Verification.

  19. Caraustar Industries Energy Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2010-06-25

    This plant-wide assessment case study is about commissioned energy assessments by the U.S. Department of Energy Industrial Technologies Program at two of Caraustar's recycled paperboard mills.

  20. Edinburgh Motor Assessment (EMAS) 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bak, Thomas

    2013-12-01

    Edinburgh Motor Assessment (EMAS) is a brief motor screening test, specifically designed for assessment of patients with dementia, aphasia and other cognitive disorders. It focuses, therefore, on those motor symptoms, ...

  1. Economic Assessment Environmental impact

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    - ". Economic Assessment Environmental impact Statement NESHAPS for Radionuclides Background Economic Assessment Environmental Impact Statement for NESHAPS Radionuclides VOLUME 3 BACKGROUND Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) for Radionuclides. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS

  2. Sandia Energy - Assessment Program

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assessment Program Home Stationary Power Safety, Security & Resilience of Energy Infrastructure Grid Modernization Cyber Security for Electric Infrastructure National Supervisory...

  3. Industrial Energy Efficiency Assessments

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Efficiency Assessments Lynn Price Staff Scientist China Energy Group Energy Analysis Department Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National...

  4. Management Assessment and Independent Assessment Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2001-05-31

    The revision to this Guide reflects current assessment practices, international standards, and changes in the Department of Energy expectations. Cancels DOE G 414.1-1. Canceled by DOE G 414.1-1B.

  5. Assessing the assessments: Pharmaceuticals in the environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Enick, O.V. Moore, M.M.

    2007-11-15

    The relatively new issue of pharmaceutical contamination of the environment offers the opportunity to explore the application of values to the construction, communication and management of risk. The still-developing regulatory policies regarding environmental contamination with pharmaceuticals provide fertile ground for the introduction of values into the definition and management of risk. In this report, we summarize the current knowledge regarding pharmaceutical contamination of the environment and discuss specific attributes of pharmaceuticals that require special consideration. We then present an analysis showing that if values are incorporated into assessing, characterizing and managing risk, the results of risk assessments will more accurately reflect the needs of various stakeholders. Originating from an acknowledgement of the inherent uncertainty and value-laden nature of risk assessment, the precautionary principle (and later, the multi-criteria, integrated risk assessment), provides a direction for further research and policy development.

  6. Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Davies, Evan; Eom, Jiyong

    2013-03-06

    This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections, and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of people’s annual incomes.

  7. Home Energy Assessments

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Dispenza, Jason

    2013-05-29

    A home energy assessment, also known as a home energy audit, is the first step to assess how much energy your home consumes and to evaluate what measures you can take to make your home more energy efficient. An assessment will show you problems that may, when corrected, save you significant amounts of money over time. This video shows some of the ways that a contractor may test your home during an assessment, and helps you understand how an assessment can help you move toward energy savings. Find out more at: http://www.energysavers.gov/your_home/energy_audits/index.cfm/mytopic=11160

  8. Home Energy Assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dispenza, Jason

    2010-01-01

    A home energy assessment, also known as a home energy audit, is the first step to assess how much energy your home consumes and to evaluate what measures you can take to make your home more energy efficient. An assessment will show you problems that may, when corrected, save you significant amounts of money over time. This video shows some of the ways that a contractor may test your home during an assessment, and helps you understand how an assessment can help you move toward energy savings. Find out more at: http://www.energysavers.gov/your_home/energy_audits/index.cfm/mytopic=11160

  9. Sandia Energy - Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment Home Stationary Power Nuclear Fuel Cycle Nuclear Energy Safety Technologies Risk and Safety Assessment Probabilistic Risk Assessment Probabilistic...

  10. Sandia Energy - Human Reliability Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Human Reliability Assessment Home Stationary Power Nuclear Fuel Cycle Nuclear Energy Safety Technologies Risk and Safety Assessment Human Reliability Assessment Human Reliability...

  11. Assessment and Propagation of Model Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    David Draper

    2011-01-01

    1982). Outlook for World Oil Prices. Washington DC: U. S.Case N-2524-RC, of Oil Prices. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.run. But, in view of the oil price example, which is worse—

  12. DISSERTATION Spatially Distributed Model to Assess Watershed

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Julien, Pierre Y.

    . Thank you also to my committee: Dr. Brian Bledsoe, Dr. Ken Carlson, and Dr. Bill Sanford. Your input group of fellow students. Not least among them were Bill Annable, Bret Jordan, Mike Sixta, Jason Albert have left anyone off this list it was unintentional. Many thanks go to Jenifer Davis, Gloria Garza

  13. Appendix MASS: Performance Assessment Modeling Assumptions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 OutreachProductswsicloudwsiclouddenDVA N C E D B L O O D SFederal Facility Agreement and

  14. COMPETENCY MODEL ASSESSMENT DESIGN, ADMINISTRATION, AND ANALYSIS |

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustmentsShirleyEnergyTher i n c i p a l DeInsulation at04-86)ContractorsCNG Exports byCHAPTERDid y ou

  15. Industrial Assessment Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Kelly Kissock; Becky Blust

    2007-04-17

    The University of Dayton (UD) performed energy assessments, trained students and supported USDOE objectives. In particular, the UD Industrial Assessment Center (IAC) performed 96 industrial energy assessment days for mid-sized manufacturers. The average identified and implemented savings on each assessment were $261,080 per year and $54,790 per year. The assessments served as direct training in industrial energy efficiency for 16 UD IAC students. The assessments also served as a mechanism for the UD IAC to understand manufacturing energy use and improve upon the science of manufacturing energy efficiency. Specific research results were published in 16 conference proceedings and journals, disseminated in 22 additional invited lectures, and shared with the industrial energy community through the UD IAC website.

  16. NATURAL GAS MARKET ASSESSMENT

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION NATURAL GAS MARKET ASSESSMENT PRELIMINARY RESULTS In Support.................................................................................... 6 Chapter 2: Natural Gas Demand.................................................................................................. 10 Chapter 3: Natural Gas Supply

  17. ORISE: Hazard Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    programsprocedures Reconstruction of retrospective plant operation and health and safety programs ORISE and collaborators have, for example, conducted an assessment of health...

  18. Assessing the Environmental,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Assessing the Environmental, Social, and Economic Impacts of Wildfire Douglas C. Morton, Megan E Forestry GISF Research Paper 001 #12;Assessing the Environmental, Social, and Economic Impacts of Wildfire Impacts of Wildfireiv Introduction Environmental, economic and social impacts from wildfires in the

  19. Assess Policy Retire Policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hammack, Richard

    Assess Policy Need Retire Policy Revise Policy Evaluate Effectiveness Enforce Compliance Educate Employees Evaluate Risks to VCU Decide Course of Action Draft Policy Acquire Approval Communicate Policy Solicit Feedback Policy Lifecycle Page 1 of 3 #12;1. Assess need 2. Analyze impact on University

  20. Service Assessment HURRICANE FRAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Service Assessment HURRICANE FRAN August 28 - September 8, 1996 U.S.Department of Commerce National-12 Visible, 753 a.m. EDT, September4, 1996. #12;Service Assessment HURRICANE FRAN August 28 Bureau Hurricane Series ERRATA NOTICE One or more conditions of the original document may affect

  1. Sandia Energy - Severe Accident Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    nuclear energy efforts by developing risk margins, creating risk assessments, sequencing nuclear reactor accident progression, and performing reactor consequence modeling. Severe...

  2. 2012Modeling_Factsheet.indd

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    simulation code (VERA) to model the formation of deposits on reactor fuel cladding and mechanical fretting within fuel assemblies to assess the potential for power uprates and...

  3. Preliminary melter performance assessment report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elliott, M.L.; Eyler, L.L.; Mahoney, L.A.; Cooper, M.F.; Whitney, L.D.; Shafer, P.J.

    1994-08-01

    The Melter Performance Assessment activity, a component of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory`s (PNL) Vitrification Technology Development (PVTD) effort, was designed to determine the impact of noble metals on the operational life of the reference Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP) melter. The melter performance assessment consisted of several activities, including a literature review of all work done with noble metals in glass, gradient furnace testing to study the behavior of noble metals during the melting process, research-scale and engineering-scale melter testing to evaluate effects of noble metals on melter operation, and computer modeling that used the experimental data to predict effects of noble metals on the full-scale melter. Feed used in these tests simulated neutralized current acid waste (NCAW) feed. This report summarizes the results of the melter performance assessment and predicts the lifetime of the HWVP melter. It should be noted that this work was conducted before the recent Tri-Party Agreement changes, so the reference melter referred to here is the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) melter design.

  4. Towards Automated Process Assessment in Software Engineering Gregor Grambow and Roy Oberhauser

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ulm, Universität

    across various process assessment models (CMMI, ISO/IEC 15504, ISO 9001), and suitable performance assessment, and common reference model assessment standards utilize external audits (CMMI [2], ISO 15504 [3], and ISO 9001 [4]) that are performed manually to gather compliance evidence. Often the maturity

  5. Assessing Uncertainty in Simulation Based Maritime Risk Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Dorp, Johan René

    Assessing Uncertainty in Simulation Based Maritime Risk Assessment #12;Abstract Recent work in the assessment of risk in maritime transportation systems has used simulation-based probabilistic risk assessment techniques. In the Prince William Sound and Washington State Ferries risk assessments, the studies

  6. Biomass Gasification Technology Assessment: Consolidated Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Worley, M.; Yale, J.

    2012-11-01

    Harris Group Inc. (HGI) was commissioned by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to assess gasification and tar reforming technologies. Specifically, the assessments focused on gasification and tar reforming technologies that are capable of producing a syngas suitable for further treatment and conversion to liquid fuels. HGI gathered sufficient information to analyze three gasification and tar reforming systems. This report summarizes the equipment, general arrangement of the equipment, operating characteristics, and operating severity for each technology. The order of magnitude capital cost estimates are supported by a basis-of-estimate write-up, which is also included in this report. The report also includes Microsoft Excel workbook models, which can be used to design and price the systems. The models can be used to analyze various operating capacities and pressures. Each model produces a material balance, equipment list, capital cost estimate, equipment drawings and preliminary general arrangement drawings. Example outputs of each model are included in the Appendices.

  7. Vulnerability Assessment for Cascading Failures in Electric Power Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baldick, R.; Chowdhury, Badrul; Dobson, Ian; Dong, Zhao Yang; Gou, Bei; Hawkins, David L.; Huang, Zhenyu; Joung, Manho; Kim, Janghoon; Kirschen, Daniel; Lee, Stephen; Li, Fangxing; Li, Juan; Li, Zuyi; Liu, Chen-Ching; Luo, Xiaochuan; Mili, Lamine; Miller, Stephen; Nakayama, Marvin; Papic, Milorad; Podmore, Robin; Rossmaier, John; Schneider, Kevin P.; Sun, Hongbin; Sun, Kai; Wang, David; Wu, Zhigang; Yao, Liangzhong; Zhang, Pei; Zhang, Wenjie; Zhang, Xiaoping

    2008-09-10

    Cascading failures present severe threats to power grid security, and thus vulnerability assessment of power grids is of significant importance. Focusing on analytic methods, this paper reviews the state of the art of vulnerability assessment methods in the context of cascading failures in three categories: steady-state modeling based analysis; dynamic modeling analysis; and non-traditional modeling approaches. The impact of emerging technologies including phasor technology, high-performance computing techniques, and visualization techniques on the vulnerability assessment of cascading failures is then addressed, and future research directions are presented.

  8. Health Assessment Requirements Candidate Waiver Request Health Assessment Management System

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sin, Peter

    Health Assessment Requirements Candidate Waiver Request Health Assessment Management System Please: To Position #: Position Title: Environmental Health & Safety Use Only Reviewer Name: ___________________ Effective Date: _______________ Comments: Revised: May 14, 2012 #12;Health Assessment Requirements Candidate

  9. Policy Analysis Risk Assessment for Polycyclic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Peters, Catherine A.

    Policy Analysis Risk Assessment for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon NAPLs Using Component Fractions not capture the variation in NAPL composition over time and as such do not consider changes in risk over time analysis of a lumped parameter approach. The fractions and priority pollutants are modeled as NAPL

  10. Integrated assessment of the sustainability of biomass

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pennycook, Steve

    Integrated assessment of the sustainability of biomass supply chains Dr. Floor van der Hilst · Previous work on sustainable biomass supply chains: ­ Land use change modeling ­ Dynamic Cost supply chains ­ Future work and potential collaboration #12;Rationale · The total demand for biomass for energy

  11. Enterprise Assessments Follow-up Assessment of Safety Culture...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Follow-up Assessment of Safety Culture at the Hanford Site Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant June 2015 Office of Worker Safety and Health Assessments Office of Environment,...

  12. Environmental Assessment of

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Environmental Assessment of Geologic Storage of CO2 December 2003 REVISED: March 2004 MIT LFEE 2003 ....................................................................................................................... 3 3.0 Identification of Environmental and Safety Concerns.............................................................. 9 3.2.4 Seismic Events

  13. Bioinformatics Needs Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Crummett, Courtney

    2015-04-29

    An assessment of the Bioinformatics Program at MIT Libraries was conducted using quantitative and qualitative data collection methods during FY13-14. Interviews were conducted to gain insight about bioinformatics researcher’s ...

  14. Technology Readiness Assessment Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-09-15

    The Guide assists individuals and teams involved in conducting Technology Readiness Assessments (TRAs) and developing Technology Maturation Plans (TMPs) for the DOE capital asset projects subject to DOE O 413.3B. Supersedes DOE G 413.3-4.

  15. Assessing Renewable Energy Options

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Federal agencies should assess renewable energy options for each specific project when integrating renewable energy in new building construction or major renovations. This section covers the preliminary screening, screening, feasibility study, and sizing and designing systems phases.

  16. Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources for the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schwartz, M.; Heimiller, D.; Haymes, S.; Musial, W.

    2010-06-01

    This report summarizes the offshore wind resource potential for the contiguous United States and Hawaii as of May 2009. The development of this assessment has evolved over multiple stages as new regional meso-scale assessments became available, new validation data was obtained, and better modeling capabilities were implemented. It is expected that further updates to the current assessment will be made in future reports.

  17. Model Fire Protection Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To facilitate conformance with its fire safety directives and the implementation of a comprehensive fire protection program, DOE has developed a number of "model" program documents. These include a comprehensive model fire protection program, model fire hazards analyses and assessments, fire protection system inspection and testing procedures, and related material.

  18. Communicating Performance Assessments Results - 13609

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Layton, Mark [Savannah River Remediation LLC, Building 705-1C, Aiken, SC 29808 (United States)] [Savannah River Remediation LLC, Building 705-1C, Aiken, SC 29808 (United States)

    2013-07-01

    The F-Area Tank Farms (FTF) and H-Area Tank Farm (HTF) are owned by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and operated by Savannah River Remediation LLC (SRR), Liquid Waste Operations contractor at DOE's Savannah River Site (SRS). The FTF and HTF are active radioactive waste storage and treatment facilities consisting of 51 carbon steel waste tanks and ancillary equipment such as transfer lines, evaporators and pump tanks. Performance Assessments (PAs) for each Tank Farm have been prepared to support the eventual closure of the underground radioactive waste tanks and ancillary equipment. PAs provide the technical bases and results to be used in subsequent documents to demonstrate compliance with the pertinent requirements for final closure of the Tank Farms. The Tank Farms are subject to a number of regulatory requirements. The State regulates Tank Farm operations through an industrial waste water permit and through a Federal Facility Agreement approved by the State, DOE and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Closure documentation will include State-approved Tank Farm Closure Plans and tank-specific closure modules utilizing information from the PAs. For this reason, the State of South Carolina and the EPA must be involved in the performance assessment review process. The residual material remaining after tank cleaning is also subject to reclassification prior to closure via a waste determination pursuant to Section 3116 of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act of Fiscal Year 2005. PAs are performance-based, risk-informed analyses of the fate and transport of FTF and HTF residual wastes following final closure of the Tank Farms. Since the PAs serve as the primary risk assessment tools in evaluating readiness for closure, it is vital that PA conclusions be communicated effectively. In the course of developing the FTF and HTF PAs, several lessons learned have emerged regarding communicating PA results. When communicating PA results it is important to stress that the primary goal of the PA results is to provide risk understanding, recognizing the magnitude of risk and identifying the conceptual model decisions and critical assumptions that most impact the results. Conceptual models that describe reality using simplified, mathematical approaches, and their roles in arriving at the PA results, must also be communicated. When presenting PA results, evaluations will typically be focused on a single baseline (or Base Case) to provide a foundation for discussion. The PA results are supplemented by other studies (alternate configurations, uncertainty analyses, and sensitivity analyses) which provide a breadth of modeling to supplement the Base Case. The suite of information offered by the various modeling cases and studies provides confidence that the overall risk is understood along with the underlying parameters and conditions that contribute to risk. (author)

  19. Small Wind Site Assessment Guidelines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olsen, Tim; Preus, Robert

    2015-09-01

    Site assessment for small wind energy systems is one of the key factors in the successful installation, operation, and performance of a small wind turbine. A proper site assessment is a difficult process that includes wind resource assessment and the evaluation of site characteristics. These guidelines address many of the relevant parts of a site assessment with an emphasis on wind resource assessment, using methods other than on-site data collection and creating a small wind site assessment report.

  20. Assessment of methods for evaluating adequacy of physical protection systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chapman, L.D.

    1980-01-01

    Generally, the scope of a safeguards evaluation model can efficiently address one of two issues: (1) global safeguards effectiveness or (2) vulnerability analysis for individual scenarios. A brief description of the variety of models developed in these areas is discussed. Current generation models are described along with an assessment of their utility and a brief look at future techniques for evaluation will be noted.

  1. Sandia Energy - Security Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Security Risk Assessment Home Climate & Earth Systems WaterEnergy Nexus Water Monitoring & Treatment Technology Security Risk Assessment Security Risk Assessmentcwdd2015-05-04T21:...

  2. Wind power resource assessment in complex urban environments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wind power resource assessment in complex urban environments: MIT campus case-study using CFD in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods holds potential for the advancement of wind energy resource assessment in complex urban terrain by modeling wind circulation around urban obstacles. The geometry

  3. Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siegel, David A.

    Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations and food-web models D Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia Abstract The export of organic carbon from cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite

  4. Supply Chain Performance Assessment and Supplier and Component Importance Identification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chain Performance Assessment and Supplier and Component Importance Identification on the paper: Li, D., Nagurney, A., 2015. Supply Chain Performance Assessment and Supplier and Component Background and Motivation The Multitiered Supply Chain Network Game Theory Model with Suppliers Supply Chain

  5. Energy Assessment Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Assessment Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations The Missouri Industrial Assessment Center shares its experience providing energy assessments to local...

  6. National Geothermal Resource Assessment and Classification |...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Resource Assessment and Classification National Geothermal Resource Assessment and Classification National Geothermal Resource Assessment and Classification presentation at the...

  7. TransCom N[subscript 2]O model inter-comparison – Part 1: Assessing the influence of transport and surface fluxes on tropospheric N[subscript 2]O variability

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thompson, R. L.

    We present a comparison of chemistry-transport models (TransCom-N2O) to examine the importance of atmospheric transport and surface fluxes on the variability of N2O mixing ratios in the troposphere. Six different models ...

  8. Life-cycle assessment of wastewater treatment plants

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dong, Bo, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2012-01-01

    This thesis presents a general model for the carbon footprints analysis of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), using a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach. In previous research, the issue of global warming is often related ...

  9. Multi-hazard Reliability Assessment of Offshore Wind Turbines 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mardfekri Rastehkenari, Maryam 1981-

    2012-12-04

    A probabilistic framework is developed to assess the structural reliability of offshore wind turbines. Probabilistic models are developed to predict the deformation, shear force and bending moment demands on the support structure of wind turbines...

  10. A stochastic approach to risk assessment of hazardous waste sites 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Arangath, Vishwanathan Vasu

    1995-01-01

    A deterministic risk assessment model was evaluated for the variability in its input parameters, Information on these variables was gathered to characterize the variability. Statistical distributions were assigned to the variables based...

  11. Power System Online Stability Assessment using Synchrophasor Data Mining 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zheng, Ce

    2013-04-30

    Traditional power system stability assessment based on full model computation shows its drawbacks in real-time applications where fast variations are present at both demand side and supply side. This work presents the use of data mining techniques...

  12. Transportation barriers to health care: assessing the Texas Medicaid program 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Borders, Stephen Boyce

    2007-09-17

    interviewing based survey was administered to Medicaid recipients selected from a representative sample through a stratified sampling scheme. Binary logistic regression models were used to assess and predict factors associated with utilization of the Texas...

  13. Assessment of boreal forest historical C dynamics in Yukon River...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    this study we applied a large-scale ecosystem model that included dynamics of organic soil horizons and soil organic matter characteristics of multiple pools to assess forest C...

  14. Assessment of U.S. cap-and-trade proposals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paltsev, Sergey V.

    2007-01-01

    The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model is applied to an assessment of a set of cap-and-trade proposals being considered by the U.S. Congress in spring 2007. The bills specify emissions reductions to be ...

  15. Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paltsev, Sergey

    The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model is applied to an assessment of a set of cap-and-trade proposals being considered by the U.S. Congress in spring 2007. The bills specify emissions reductions to be ...

  16. Integrated assessment of quality of supply in future electricity networks 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hernando Gil, Ignacio

    2014-11-27

    Although power system reliability analysis is a mature research area, there is a renewed interest in updating available network models and formulating improved reliability assessment procedures. The main driver of this ...

  17. Supply Chain Performance Assessment and Supplier and Component Importance Identification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nagurney, Anna

    Supply Chain Performance Assessment and Supplier and Component Importance Identification and Motivation The Multitiered Supply Chain Network Game Theory Model with Suppliers Supply Chain Network Performance Measures and Supplier and Component Importance Identification The Algorithm Numerical Examples

  18. Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, N,

    Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States. We apply a model-based risk assessment methodology to investigate hurricane storm surge risk for New York City (NYC). We couple a statistical/deterministic ...

  19. Image Utility Assessment and a Relationship with Image Quality Assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hemami, Sheila S.

    Image Utility Assessment and a Relationship with Image Quality Assessment David M. Rouse , Romuald information to humans, and this paper investigates the utility assessment task, where human observers evaluate the usefulness of a natural image as a surrogate for a reference. Current QA algorithms implicitly assess utility

  20. Windows technology assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baron, J.J.

    1995-10-01

    This assessment estimates that energy loss through windows is approximately 15 percent of all the energy used for space heating and cooling in residential and commercial buildings in New York State. The rule of thumb for the nation as a whole is about 25 percent. The difference may reflect a traditional assumption of single-pane windows while this assessment analyzed installed window types in the region. Based on the often-quoted assumption, in the United States some 3.5 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of primary energy, costing some $20 billion, is annually consumed as a result of energy lost through windows. According to this assessment, in New York State, the energy lost due to heat loss through windows is approximately 80 trillion Btu at an annual cost of approximately $1 billion.

  1. Oak Ridge Reservation Needs Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Needs Assessment for former Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Y-12 Nuclear Security Complex production workers.

  2. UAIEE and Industrial Assessment Centers

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    55-62011| Industrial Assessment Centers * Started in 1976 * Currently 26 Centers across the US * Almost...

  3. EA-1207: Final Environmental Assessment

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Pit Disassembly and Conversion Demonstration Environmental Assessment and Research and Development Activities

  4. Performance Assessment Institute-NV

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lombardo, Joesph

    2012-12-31

    The National Supercomputing Center for Energy and the Environment’s intention is to purchase a multi-purpose computer cluster in support of the Performance Assessment Institute (PA Institute). The PA Institute will serve as a research consortium located in Las Vegas Nevada with membership that includes: national laboratories, universities, industry partners, and domestic and international governments. This center will provide a one-of-a-kind centralized facility for the accumulation of information for use by Institutions of Higher Learning, the U.S. Government, and Regulatory Agencies and approved users. This initiative will enhance and extend High Performance Computing (HPC) resources in Nevada to support critical national and international needs in "scientific confirmation". The PA Institute will be promoted as the leading Modeling, Learning and Research Center worldwide. The program proposes to utilize the existing supercomputing capabilities and alliances of the University of Nevada Las Vegas as a base, and to extend these resource and capabilities through a collaborative relationship with its membership. The PA Institute will provide an academic setting for interactive sharing, learning, mentoring and monitoring of multi-disciplinary performance assessment and performance confirmation information. The role of the PA Institute is to facilitate research, knowledge-increase, and knowledge-sharing among users.

  5. Assessment of Supply Chain Energy Efficiency Potentials: A U.S. Case Study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Masanet, Eric

    2010-01-01

    goods), changes to energy supply (e.g. , installation ofof best practice energy-efficient supply chain technologies.cycle assessment, energy efficiency, supply chain modeling,

  6. Seismic Assessment and Retrofit of Existing Multi-Column Bent Bridges

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seismic Assessment and Retrofit of Existing Multi-Column Bent Bridges By Cole C. Mc ................................................................................................................................... 6 Seismic Activity in Western Washington State Approach ­ Bridge Modeling .............................................11 Seismic Excitations

  7. Ultrasonic pipe assessment

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Thomas, Graham H.; Morrow, Valerie L.; Levie, Harold; Kane, Ronald J.; Brown, Albert E.

    2003-12-23

    An ultrasonic pipe or other structure assessment system includes an ultrasonic transducer positioned proximate the pipe or other structure. A fluid connection between the ultrasonic transducer and the pipe or other structure is produced. The ultrasonic transducer is moved relative to the pipe or other structure.

  8. Risk Assessment Sally Brown

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Brown, Sally

    or publicly owned treatment works) whose regulations and rule enforcement work to make sure that the risksRisk Assessment Sally Brown University of Washington Risk in our day to day routines One could argue that every thing that we do, every day is fraught with risks and that the safest approach is just

  9. RISK ASSESSMENT CLOUD COMPUTING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Columbia University

    SECURITY RESEARCH PRIVACY RISK ASSESSMENT AMC DATA FISMA CLOUD COMPUTING MOBILE DEVICES OPERATIONS PRACTICES TRENDS AUDITS policies #12;2 Privacy & Information Security Annual Update Thursday, June 20, 2013 of Breach statistics Plan to comply with requirements · Training and Education Information Security · Risk

  10. Demand Response Assessment INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Demand Response Assessment INTRODUCTION This appendix provides more detail on some of the topics raised in Chapter 4, "Demand Response" of the body of the Plan. These topics include 1. The features, advantages and disadvantages of the main options for stimulating demand response (price mechanisms

  11. Assessments A Training Manual

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    for industrial clients has always been tied to the cost of energy resources. Beginning with the oil embargo the initial investment by the manufacturing concern now makes the full industrial assessment attractive, and indexing the final document took the better part of a year. This investment of time and effort has yielded

  12. Performance assessment to enhance training effectiveness.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stevens-Adams, Susan Marie; Gieseler, Charles J.; Basilico, Justin Derrick; Abbott, Robert G.; Forsythe, James Chris

    2010-09-01

    Training simulators have become increasingly popular tools for instructing humans on performance in complex environments. However, the question of how to provide individualized and scenario-specific assessment and feedback to students remains largely an open question. To maximize training efficiency, new technologies are required that assist instructors in providing individually relevant instruction. Sandia National Laboratories has shown the feasibility of automated performance assessment tools, such as the Sandia-developed Automated Expert Modeling and Student Evaluation (AEMASE) software, through proof-of-concept demonstrations, a pilot study, and an experiment. In the pilot study, the AEMASE system, which automatically assesses student performance based on observed examples of good and bad performance in a given domain, achieved a high degree of agreement with a human grader (89%) in assessing tactical air engagement scenarios. In more recent work, we found that AEMASE achieved a high degree of agreement with human graders (83-99%) for three Navy E-2 domain-relevant performance metrics. The current study provides a rigorous empirical evaluation of the enhanced training effectiveness achievable with this technology. In particular, we assessed whether giving students feedback based on automated metrics would enhance training effectiveness and improve student performance. We trained two groups of employees (differentiated by type of feedback) on a Navy E-2 simulator and assessed their performance on three domain-specific performance metrics. We found that students given feedback via the AEMASE-based debrief tool performed significantly better than students given only instructor feedback on two out of three metrics. Future work will focus on extending these developments for automated assessment of teamwork.

  13. Using Sensitivity Analysis to Create Simplified Economic Models for Regression Testing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rothermel, Gregg

    Keywords Regression testing, test case prioritization, regression test selection, economic models tradeoffs. Economic models can help practitioners and re- searchers assess methodologies relative sensitivity anal- ysis to examine our model analytically and assess the factors that are most important

  14. Wind Resource Assessment of Gujarat (India)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, C.; Purkayastha, A.; Parker, Z.

    2014-07-01

    India is one of the largest wind energy markets in the world. In 1986 Gujarat was the first Indian state to install a wind power project. In February 2013, the installed wind capacity in Gujarat was 3,093 MW. Due to the uncertainty around existing wind energy assessments in India, this analysis uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the wind at current hub heights for one year to provide more precise estimates of wind resources in Gujarat. The WRF model allows for accurate simulations of winds near the surface and at heights important for wind energy purposes. While previous resource assessments published wind power density, we focus on average wind speeds, which can be converted to wind power densities by the user with methods of their choice. The wind resource estimates in this study show regions with average annual wind speeds of more than 8 m/s.

  15. Online assessment: a study of the validation and implementation of a formative online diagnostic tool in developmental mathematics for college students 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kadhi, TauGamba

    2006-10-30

    This Research and Design (R&D) study models the methodology necessary to replicate an online assessment instrument designed to assess student skills and facets of thought while understanding Multiple Meanings and Models ...

  16. Statistical assessment of Monte Carlo distributional tallies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kiedrowski, Brian C; Solomon, Clell J

    2010-12-09

    Four tests are developed to assess the statistical reliability of distributional or mesh tallies. To this end, the relative variance density function is developed and its moments are studied using simplified, non-transport models. The statistical tests are performed upon the results of MCNP calculations of three different transport test problems and appear to show that the tests are appropriate indicators of global statistical quality.

  17. 1 Copyright 2003 by ASME IMPROVING LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT BY INCLUDING SPATIAL, DYNAMIC AND PLACE-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 Copyright © 2003 by ASME IMPROVING LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT BY INCLUDING SPATIAL, DYNAMIC AND PLACE Drawing from the substantial body of literature on life cycle assessment / analysis (LCA), the article models is suggested as a means of improving the impact assessment phase of LCA. Keywords: Life Cycle

  18. Generalized event tree algorithm and software for dam safety risk assessment

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bowles, David S.

    Generalized event tree algorithm and software for dam safety risk assessment Anurag Srivastava 1 an event tree risk model for dam safety risk assessment in a highly flexible manner. This paper describes and a summary of plans for its further development. Keywords: Event tree analysis, dam safety risk assessment

  19. Photovoltaic technology assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, C.E.

    1981-01-01

    After a brief review of the history of photovoltaic devices and a discussion of the cost goals set for photovoltaic modules, the status of photovoltaic technology is assessed. Included are discussions of: current applications, present industrial production, low-cost silicon production techniques, energy payback periods for solar cells, advanced materials research and development, concentrator systems, balance-of-system components. Also discussed are some nontechnical aspects, including foreign markets, US government program approach, and industry attitudes and approaches. (LEW)

  20. Development of Energy Models for Production Systems and Processes to Inform Environmentally Benign Decision-Making

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Diaz-Elsayed, Nancy

    2013-01-01

    Germany, China, and India. By presenting energy assessments of productionGermany, China, and India. By presenting energy models and assessments of production

  1. Impact of transport model errors on the global and regional methane emissions estimated by inverse modelling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Locatelli, R.

    A modelling experiment has been conceived to assess the impact of transport model errors on methane emissions estimated in an atmospheric inversion system. Synthetic methane observations, obtained from 10 different model ...

  2. PUREX facility hazards assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sutton, L.N.

    1994-09-23

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Plutonium Uranium Extraction Plant (PUREX) located on the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. Operation of PUREX is the responsibility of Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). This hazards assessment was conducted to provide the emergency planning technical basis for PUREX. DOE Order 5500.3A requires an emergency planning hazards assessment for each facility that has the potential to reach or exceed the lowest level emergency classification. In October of 1990, WHC was directed to place PUREX in standby. In December of 1992 the DOE Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management authorized the termination of PUREX and directed DOE-RL to proceed with shutdown planning and terminal clean out activities. Prior to this action, its mission was to reprocess irradiated fuels for the recovery of uranium and plutonium. The present mission is to establish a passively safe and environmentally secure configuration at the PUREX facility and to preserve that condition for 10 years. The ten year time frame represents the typical duration expended to define, authorize and initiate follow-on decommissioning and decontamination activities.

  3. PHEV Battery Cost Assessment

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Program Modeling Advanced Li-ion Couples 13 Courtesy of Junbing Yang & K. Amine Graphite with LNMO and LMRNMC similar in cost and energy density LMRNMC shows synergy...

  4. Ensemble Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Addis, R.P.

    2002-06-24

    Prognostic atmospheric dispersion models are used to generate consequence assessments, which assist decision-makers in the event of a release from a nuclear facility. Differences in the forecast wind fields generated by various meteorological agencies, differences in the transport and diffusion models, as well as differences in the way these models treat the release source term, result in differences in the resulting plumes. Even dispersion models using the same wind fields may produce substantially different plumes. This talk will address how ensemble techniques may be used to enable atmospheric modelers to provide decision-makers with a more realistic understanding of how both the atmosphere and the models behave.

  5. Bioenergy and the importance of land use policy in a carbon-constrained world

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Wise, Marshall A.

    2010-06-01

    Policies aimed at limiting anthropogenic climate change would result in significant transformations of the energy and land-use systems. However, increasing the demand for bioenergy could have a tremendous impact on land use, and can result in land clearing and deforestation. Wise et al. (2009a,b) analyzed an idealized policy to limit the indirect land use change emissions from bioenergy. The policy, while effective, would be difficult, if not impossible, to implement in the real world. In this paper, we consider several different land use policies that deviate from this first-best, using the Joint Global Change Research Institute’s Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Specifically, these new frameworks are (1) a policy that focuses on just the above-ground or vegetative terrestrial carbon rather than the total carbon, (2) policies that focus exclusively on incentivizing and protecting forestland, and (3) policies that apply an economic penalty on the use of biomass as a proxy to limit indirect land use change emissions. For each policy, we examine its impact on land use, land-use change emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, agricultural supply, and food prices.

  6. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  7. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  8. Assessing intrusiveness of smartphone apps

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Fan, M. Eng. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2012-01-01

    We tackle the challenge of improving transparency for smartphone apps by focusing on the intrusiveness component of assessing privacy risk. Specifically, we develop a framework for qualitatively assessing and quantitatively ...

  9. Dual Rater Competency Assessment FAQ

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The purpose of the dual rater competency assessment is to provide a clearer picture of the individual’s developmental needs by combining self-assessment and supervisory input. Together, these two...

  10. Uncertainties in energy technology assessments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coate, David

    1980-01-01

    In order to make important contributions, energy technology assessments must be large, interdisciplinary projects, generally becoming very time consuming and expensive. This small project does not involve a large assessment, ...

  11. DOE limited standard: Operations assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1996-05-01

    Purpose of this standard is to provide DOE Field Element assessors with a guide for conducting operations assessments, and provide DOE Field Element managers with the criteria of the EM Operations Assessment Program. Sections 6.1 to 6.21 provide examples of how to assess specific areas; the general techniques of operations assessments (Section 5) may be applied to other areas of health and safety (e.g. fire protection, criticality safety, quality assurance, occupational safety, etc.).

  12. Sandia Energy - SCADA Vulnerability Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    SCADA Vulnerability Assessments Home Stationary Power Safety, Security & Resilience of Energy Infrastructure Grid Modernization Cyber Security for Electric Infrastructure National...

  13. Assistance with Incorporating Impacts into Integrated Assessment PI: Thomas J. Wilbanks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    system modeling (CM/ESM), (b) integrated assess- ment modeling (IAM), and (c) impact, adaptation- quences of Climate Change. SIGNIFICANCE Climate change science is a combination of (a) climate science/earth

  14. Observations & Thoughts on Controller Assessment &

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harris, Thomas J.

    & Assessment Design & interpretation of monitoring & assessment methods cannot be divorced from processObservations & Thoughts on Controller Assessment & Performance Monitoring T.J. Harris Queen's University harrist@post.queensu.ca Control Systems 2004 #12;Acknowledge Contributions of NSERC Imperial Oil

  15. NARSTO OZONE ASSESSMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    vi NARSTO OZONE ASSESSMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Prepared as a NARSTO initiative, this tropospheric O3 in the accompanying Textbox, the NARSTO Ozone Assessment contains two product components. The first of these is a set aspects of tropospheric ozone pollution. The second component, the NARSTO Ozone Assessment Document

  16. "" EPAT# Risk Assessments Environmental Impact

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    "" EPAT# Risk Assessments Appendixes Environmental Impact Statement NESHAPS for Radionuclides for Hazardous Air Pollutants Risk Assessments Environmental Impact Statement for NESHAPS Radionuclides VOLUME 2 for Hazardous Air Pollutants EPA 520.1'1.-89-006,-2 Risk Assessments Environmental Impact Statement for NESHAPS

  17. Assessor Training NVLAP Assessment Forms

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NVLAP Assessor Training NVLAP Assessment Forms #12;Assessor Training 2009: NVLAP Assessment Forms 2 Summary ·Test Method Review Summary ·ProgramSpecific Checklists Examples #12;Assessor Training 2009: NVLAP are completed · Assessor Names, Dates, Lab Code #12;Assessor Training 2009: NVLAP Assessment Forms 4 NIST

  18. Assessment of Demand Response Resource

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Assessment of Demand Response Resource Potentials for PGE and Pacific Power Prepared for: Portland January 15, 2004 K:\\Projects\\2003-53 (PGE,PC) Assess Demand Response\\Report\\Revised Report_011504.doc #12;#12;quantec Assessment of Demand Response Resource Potentials for I-1 PGE and Pacific Power I. Introduction

  19. Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Capability Maturity Model...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Capability Maturity Model (ES-C2M2) Version 1.1, which allows electric utilities and grid operators to assess their cybersecurity...

  20. Assessment of China's Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction Accomplishments and Opportunities During the 11th Five Year Plan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levine, Mark D.

    2010-01-01

    National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Model Energy-Efficiency Programregular national surveys of energy end-use to assess programregular national surveys of energy end-use to assess program