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Sample records for assessment model gcam

  1. GCAM Bioenergy and Land Use Modeling

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    GCAM Bioenergy and Land Use Modeling March 25, 2015 Analysis and Sustainability PI: Marshall Wise Pacific Northwest National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any ...

  2. Enhancement of Solar Energy Representation in the GCAM Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Volke, April C.; Delgado Arias, Sabrina

    2010-02-01

    The representation of solar technologies in a research version of the GCAM (formerly MiniCAM) integrated assessment model have been enhanced to add technologies, improve the underlying data, and improve the interaction with the rest of the model. We find that the largest potential impact from the inclusion of thermal Concentrating Solar Power plants, which supply a substantial portion of electric generation in sunny regions of the world. Drawing on NREL research, domestic Solar Hot Water technologies have also been added in the United States region where this technology competes with conventional electric and gas technologies. PV technologies are as implemented in the CCTP scenarios, drawing on NREL cost curves for the United States, extrapolated to other world regions using a spatial analysis of population and solar resources.

  3. US Renewable Futures in the GCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, S.J.; Mizrahi, A.H.; Karas, J.F.; Nathan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This report examines renewable energy deployment in the United States using a version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with a detailed representation of renewables; the GCAM-RE. Electricity generation was modeled in four generation segments and 12-subregions. This level of regional and sector detail allows a more explicit representation of renewable energy generation. Wind, solar thermal power, and central solar PV plants are implemented in explicit resource classes with new intermittency parameterizations appropriate for each technology. A scenario analysis examines a range of assumptions for technology characteristics, climate policy, and long distance transmission.

  4. US Renewable Futures in the GCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Mizrahi, Andrew H.; Karas, Joseph F.; Nathan, Mayda

    2011-10-06

    This project examines renewable energy deployment in the United States using a version of the GCAM integrated assessment model with detailed a representation of renewables, the GCAM-RE. Electricity generation was modeled in four generation segments and 12-subregions. This level of regional and sectoral detail allows a more explicit representation of renewable energy generation. Wind, solar thermal power, and central solar PV plants are implemented in explicit resource classes with new intermittency parameterizations appropriate for each technology. A scenario analysis examines a range of assumptions for technology characteristics, climate policy, and long-distance transmission. We find that renewable generation levels grow over the century in all scenarios. As expected, renewable generation increases with lower renewable technology costs, more stringent climate policy, and if alternative low-carbon technology are not available. The availability of long distance transmission lowers policy costs and changes the renewable generation mix.

  5. Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Edmonds, James A.

    2014-09-01

    We explore the impact of changes in agricultural productivity on global land use and terrestrial carbon using the new agriculture and land use modeling approach developed for Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. This approach models economic land use decisions with regional, physical, and technological specificity while maintaining economic and physical integration with the rest of the GCAM model. Physical land characteristics and quantities are tracked explicitly, and crop production practices are modeled discretely to facilitate coupling with physical models. Economic land allocation is modeled with non-linear functions in a market equilibrium rather than through a constrained optimization. In this paper, we explore three scenarios of future agriculture productivity in all regions of the globe over this century, ranging from a high growth to a zero growth level. The higher productivity growth scenario leads to lower crop prices, increased production of crops in developing nations, preservation of global forested lands and lower terrestrial carbon emissions. The scenario with no productivity improvement results in higher crop prices, an expansion of crop production in the developed world, loss of forested lands globally, and higher terrestrial carbon emissions.

  6. Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: Initial experiments using GCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2013-04-01

    Historically climate impacts research and climate mitigation research have been two separate and independent domains of inquiry. Climate mitigation research has investigated greenhouse gas emissions assuming that climate is unchanging. At the same time climate mitigation research has investigated the implications of climate change on the assumption that climate mitigation will proceed without affecting the degree of climate impacts or the ability of human and natural systems to adapt. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has largely been employed to study climate mitigation. Here we explore the development of capabilities to assess climate change impacts and adaptation within the GCAM model. These capabilities are being developed so as to be able to simultaneously reconcile the joint implications of climate change mitigation, impacts and adaptive potential. This is an important step forward in that it enables direct comparison between climate mitigation activities and climate impacts and the opportunity to understand interactions between the two.

  7. GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land Use: Data Sources and Methods

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Emanuel, William R.; Nathan, Mayda; Zhou, Yuyu

    2011-12-12

    This report presents the data processing methods used in the GCAM 3.0 agriculture and land use component, starting from all source data used, and detailing all calculations and assumptions made in generating the model inputs. The report starts with a brief introduction to modeling of agriculture and land use in GCAM 3.0, and then provides documentation of the data and methods used for generating the base-year dataset and future scenario parameters assumed in the model input files. Specifically, the report addresses primary commodity production, secondary (animal) commodity production, disposition of commodities, land allocation, land carbon contents, and land values.

  8. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Di Vittorio, Alan; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Truesdale, John E.; Craig, Anthony P.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Hurtt, George; Thornton, Peter E.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-11-27

    Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Models (GCAMs) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAMs afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAMs pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

  9. Development of a Future Representative Concentration Pathway for Use in the IPCC 5th Assessment Earth System Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2010-12-29

    The representative concentration pathway to be delivered is a scenario of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important atmospheric species, along with land-use changes, derived from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The particular representative concentration pathway (RCP) that the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) has been responsible for is a not-to-exceed pathway that stabilizes at a radiative forcing of 4.5Wm-2 in the year 2100.

  10. Global Deployment of Geothermal Energy Using a New Characterization in GCAM 1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannam, Phil; Kyle, G. Page; Smith, Steven J.

    2009-09-01

    This report documents modeling of geothermal energy in GCAM 1.0 (formerly MiniCAM) from FY2008 to FY2009, from the inputs to the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program report (Clarke et al., 2008a) to the present representation, which will be used in future work. To demonstrate the newest representation, we describe the procedure and outcome of six model runs that illustrate the potential role of geothermal energy in the U.S. and global regions through different futures climate policy, development and deployment of engineered, or enhanced, geothermal systems (EGS), and availability of other low-cost, low-carbon electricity generation technologies such as nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

  11. On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Mao, Jiafu; Patel, Pralit L.; Shi, Xiaoying; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-01-01

    Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, posing a significant problem for earth system models (ESMs), which may incorporate static land-use change inputs but do not actively simulate policy or economic forces. One option to address this problem is a to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model. Here we have implemented and tested a coupling mechanism between the carbon cycles of an ESM (CLM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, examining the best proxy variables to share between the models, and quantifying our ability to distinguish climate- and land-use-driven flux changes. CLMs net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to manipulate GCAMs assumptions of long-term ecosystem steady state carbon, with short-term forest production strongly correlated with long-term biomass changes in climate-change model runs. By leveraging the fact that carbon-cycle effects of anthropogenic land-use change are short-term and spatially limited relative to widely distributed climate effects, we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. By allowing climate effects from a full earth system model to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work provides a foundation for linking these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and earth system processes.

  12. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model is a process-based agricultural systems model composed of simulation components for weather, hydrology, nutrient cycling, pesticide fate, tillage, crop growth, soil erosion, crop and soil management and economics. Staff at PNNL have been involved in the development of this model by integrating new sub-models for soil carbon dynamics and nitrogen cycling.

  13. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  14. Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Energy Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) Dynamic-recursive model GCAM Model Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Resources by Type Tools Click Sort key.JPG to sort by...

  15. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demandsboth gross withdrawals and net consumptive useare assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an important role for development and deployment of water conservation technologies and practices.

  16. Explicitly Accounting for Protected Lands within the GCAM 3.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dooley, James J.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2012-05-01

    The Global Change Assessment Model Version 3.0 defines three different levels of “Protected Lands” within the agricultural and landuse component. These three different scenarios effectively cordon off 3.5% (5.0 million km2) of the Earth’s terrestrial lands in the de minimus Protected Land Scenario, 5.0% (7.20 million km2) in the Core Protected Land Scenario, and 8.2% (11.8 million km2) in the Expanded Protected Land Scenario. None of these scenarios represents the “right” level of Protected Lands for the planet today or tomorrow. Rather, the goal is to create a range of scenarios that can be used in modeling human responses to climate change and the impact those would have on managed and unmanaged terrestrial lands. These scenarios harness the wealth of information in the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre’s World Database on Protected Areas and its categories of explicit degrees of protection.

  17. Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Eom, Jiyong; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.; Kim, Son H.; Dirks, James A.; Jensen, Erik A.; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.; Schmidt, Laurel C.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2014-01-01

    As long-term socioeconomic transformation and energy service expansion show large spatial heterogeneity, advanced understanding of climate impact on building energy use at the sub-national level will offer useful insights into climate policy and regional energy system planning. In this study, we presented a detailed building energy model with a U.S. state-level representation, nested in the GCAM integrated assessment framework. We projected state-level building energy demand and its spatial pattern over the century, considering the impact of climate change based on the estimates of heating and cooling degree days derived from downscaled USGS CASCaDE temperature data. The result indicates that climate change has a large impact on heating and cooling building energy and fuel use at the state level, exhibiting large spatial heterogeneity across states (ranges from -10% to +10%). The sensitivity analysis reveals that the building energy demand is subject to multiple key factors, such as the magnitude of climate change, the choice of climate models, and the growth of population and GDP, and that their relative contributions vary greatly across the space. The scale impact in building energy use modeling highlights the importance of constructing a building energy model with the spatially-explicit representation of socioeconomics, energy system development, and climate change. These findings will help the climate-based policy decision and energy system, especially utility planning related to building sector at the U.S. state and regional level facing the potential climate change.

  18. ORISE: Dose modeling and assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Dose modeling and assessments The Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) offers dose modeling and assessment services to demonstrate that federal and/or state regulatory compliance requirements are being met during the decontamination and decommissioning of nuclear facilities. Dose modeling is an important step in the assessment of safety and regulatory compliance, as well as the development of standards and regulatory rulemaking. The ultimate goal of dose modeling and assessments

  19. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  20. Explicitly Accounting for Protected Lands within the GCAM 3.0...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    in the Expanded Protected Land Scenario. None of these scenarios represents the "right" level of Protected Lands ... can be used in modeling human responses to climate change ...

  1. ORISE: Dose modeling and assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) offers dose modeling and assessment services to demonstrate that federal andor state regulatory compliance requirements...

  2. TEPP Model Needs Assessment Document

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The purpose of this Model Needs Assessment is to assist state, tribal, or local officials in determining emergency responder readiness for response to a transportation accident  involving...

  3. Decision Impact Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1991-08-01

    DIAMOND represents the decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, cancelled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side managementmore » programs can be changed from year to year. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources.« less

  4. Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Popp, Alexander; Rose, Steven K.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Dietrich, Jan P.; Wise, Marshall A.; Stehfest, Eike; Humpenoder, Florian; Kyle, G. Page; Van Vliet, Jasper; Bauer, Nico; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Klein, David; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-04-01

    This study is a model comparison assessing the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system and the interaction with other land use based mitigation options in the context of the EMF 27 project. We compare and evaluate results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE). All three models project that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues are a potentially important and cost-effective component of the energy system. But bioenergy deployment levels and feedstock composition vary notably across models as do the implications for land-use and greenhouse gas emissions and the interaction with other land use based mitigation measures. Despite numerous model differences, we identify a few that are likely contributing to differences in land-use and emissions attributable to energy crop deployment.

  5. TEPP Planning Products Model Needs Assessment Self Assessment...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Planning Products Model Needs Assessment Self Assessment Document Prepared for the Department of Energy Office of Transportation and Emergency Management 02B00215-13.p65 1 Model ...

  6. Mathematical models for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaikin, S.A.

    1995-12-01

    The use of mathematical models in risk assessment results in the proper understanding of many aspects of chemical exposure and allows to make more actual decisions. Our project ISCRA (Integrated Systems of Complex Risk Assessment) has the aim to create integrated systems of algorythms for prediction of pollutants` exposure on human and environmental health and to apply them for environmental monitoring, and decision-making. Mathematical model {open_quotes}MASTER{close_quotes} (Mathematical Algorythm of SimulaTion of Environmental Risk) represents the complex of algorythmical blocks and is intended for the prediction of danger of pollutants` exposure for human and environmental risk. Model LIMES (LIMits EStimation) is developed for prognosis of safety concentrations of pollutants in the environment both in the case of isolated exposure and in the case of complex exposure for concrete location. Model QUANT (QUANtity of Toxicant) represents the multicompartmental physiological pharmacokinetic model describing absorption, distribution, fate, metabolism, and elimination of pollutants in the body of different groups of human population, as a result of the different kind of exposure. Decision support system CLEVER (Complex LEVE1 of Risk) predicts the probability and the degree of development of unfavourable effects as result of exposure of pollutant on human health. System is based on the data of epidemiological and experimental researches and includes several mathematical models for analysis of {open_quotes}dose-time-response{close_quotes} relations and information about clinical symptoms of diseases. Model CEP (Combination Effect Prognosis) contains probabilistic algorythms for forecasting the effect of simultaneous impact of several factors polluting the environment. The result of the program work is the prediction of an independent exposure of two or more factors, and intensification or weakening of exposure in depending on factors` interactions.

  7. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  8. COMPETENCY MODEL ASSESSMENT DESIGN, ADMINISTRATION, AND ANALYSIS...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Learning and Workforce Development Workforce Development COMPETENCY MODEL ASSESSMENT ... and programs. "Competency-centric Learning and Development facilitates the ...

  9. Water demands for electricity generation in the U.S.: Modeling different scenarios for the water–energy nexus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Patel, Pralit L.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-05-01

    Water withdrawal for electricity generation in the United States accounts for approximately half the total freshwater withdrawal. With steadily growing electricity demands, a changing climate, and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states, meeting future energy and water demands poses a significant socio-economic challenge. Employing an integrated modeling approach that can capture the energy-water interactions at regional and national scales is essential to improve our understanding of the key drivers that govern those interactions and the role of national policies. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and land use, water, and climate systems, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. (GCAM-USA). GCAM-USA was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and consumption, and their associated water withdrawals and consumption under a set of six scenarios with extensive details on the generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and their associated water use intensities. Six scenarios of future water demands of the U.S. electric-sector were explored to investigate the implications of socioeconomics development and growing electricity demands, climate mitigation policy, the transition of cooling systems, electricity trade, and water saving technologies. Our findings include: 1) decreasing water withdrawals and substantially increasing water consumption from both climate mitigation and the conversion from open-loop to closed-loop cooling systems; 2) open trading of electricity benefiting energy scarce yet demand intensive states; 3) within state variability under different driving forces while across state homogeneity under certain driving force ; 4) a clear trade-off between water consumption and withdrawal for the electricity sector in the U.S. The paper discusses this withdrawal-consumption trade-off in the context of current national policies and regulations that favor decreasing withdrawals (increasing consumptive use), and the role of water saving technologies. The highly-resolved nature of this study both geographically and technologically provides a useful platform to address scientific and policy relevant and emerging issues at the heart of the water-energy nexus in the U.S.

  10. Model Fire Protection Assessment Guide

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This Assessment guide covers the implementation of the DOE's responsibility of assuring that DOE and the DOE Contractors have established Fire Protection Programs that are at the level required for the area being assessed.

  11. Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2002-01-03

    This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materials modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.

  12. Minority Utility Rate Design Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2003-01-20

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to various user-supplied, two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic welfare impact on black, hispanic, poor and majority households.

  13. China's Building Energy Use: A Long-Term Perspective based on a Detailed Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.

    2012-01-13

    We present here a detailed, service-based model of China's building energy use, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explore long-term pathways of China's building energy use and identify opportunities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of a structural model of building energy demands within an integrated assessment framework represents a major methodological advance. It allows for a structural understanding of the drivers of building energy consumption while simultaneously considering the other human and natural system interactions that influence changes in the global energy system and climate. We also explore a range of different scenarios to gain insights into how China's building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China's building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

  14. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

  15. Appendix MASS: Performance Assessment Modeling Assumptions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Appendix MASS-2014 Performance Assessment Modeling Assumptions United States Department of Energy Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Carlsbad Field Office Carlsbad, New Mexico Compliance Recertification Application 2014 Appendix MASS Table of Contents MASS-1.0 Introduction MASS-2.0 Summary of Changes in Performance Assessment MASS-2.1 FEPs Assessment MASS-2.2 Monitoring MASS-2.3 Experimental Activities MASS-2.3.1 Steel Corrosion Investigations MASS-2.3.2 Waste Shear Strength Investigations MASS-2.3.3

  16. MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment Context and Overview MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment Context and Overview Presentation...

  17. Financial and Cost Assessment Model (FICAM) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Cost Assessment Model (FICAM) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Financial and Cost Assessment Model (FICAM) AgencyCompany Organization: UNEP-Risoe...

  18. Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for ...

  19. Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM) - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs

  20. Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating Wind at Heights Relevant to the Wind Energy Community Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Assessment of ...

  1. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-04-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13% - 22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement.

  2. Model for assessing bronchial mucus transport

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnew, J.E.; Bateman, J.R.M.; Pavia, D.; Clarke, S.W.

    1984-02-01

    The authors propose a scheme for the assessment of regional mucus transport using inhaled Tc-99m aerosol particles and quantitative analysis of serial gamma-camera images. The model treats input to inner and intermediate lung regions as the total of initial deposition there plus subsequent transport into these regions from more peripheral airways. It allows for interregional differences in the proportion of particles deposited on the mucus-bearing conducting airways, and does not require a gamma image 24 hr after particle inhalation. Instead, distribution of particles reaching the respiratory bronchioles or alveoli is determined from a Kr-81m ventilation image, while the total amount of such deposition is obtained from 24-hr Tc-99m retention measured with a sensitive counter system. The model is applicable to transport by mucociliary action or by cough, and has been tested in ten normal and ten asthmatic subjects.

  3. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  4. Sensitivity to Energy Technology Costs: A Multi-model comparison analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Marangoni, Giacomo; Borgonovo, Emanuele; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Politis, Savvas; Friley, Paul

    2015-05-01

    In the present paper we use the output of multiple expert elicitation surveys on the future cost of key low-carbon technologies and use it as input of three Integrated Assessment models, GCAM, MARKAL_US and WITCH. By means of a large set of simulations we aim to assess the implications of these subjective distributions of technological costs over key model outputs. We are able to detect what sources of technology uncertainty are more influential, how this differs across models, and whether and how results are affected by the time horizon, the metric considered or the stringency of the climate policy. In unconstrained emission scenarios, within the range of future technology performances considered in the present analysis, the cost of nuclear energy is shown to dominate all others in affecting future emissions. Climate-constrained scenarios, stress the relevance, in addition to that of nuclear energy, of biofuels, as they represent the main source of decarbonization of the transportation sector and bioenergy, since the latter can be coupled with CCS to produce negative emissions.

  5. Performance model assessment for multi-junction concentrating photovoltaic systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Riley, Daniel M.; McConnell, Robert.; Sahm, Aaron; Crawford, Clark; King, David L.; Cameron, Christopher P.; Foresi, James S.

    2010-03-01

    Four approaches to modeling multi-junction concentrating photovoltaic system performance are assessed by comparing modeled performance to measured performance. Measured weather, irradiance, and system performance data were collected on two systems over a one month period. Residual analysis is used to assess the models and to identify opportunities for model improvement.

  6. Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wind Energy Community Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating Wind at Heights Relevant to the Wind Energy ...

  7. Quality Assurance for Performance Assessment Modeling

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  8. Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit; Eom, Jiyon; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Schultz, Peter; Venkatesh, Boddu; Haydel, Juanita; Mack, Charlotte; Creason, Jared

    2015-06-10

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

  9. Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit; Eom, Jiyon; Kim, Son H.; et al

    2015-06-10

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effectsmore » of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.« less

  10. Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarland, Jim; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Schultz, Peter; Venkatesh, Boddu; Haydel, Juanita; Mack, Charlotte; Creason, Jared

    2015-10-09

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. The present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. The increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

  11. Erratum to: Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarland, Jim; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Schultz, Peter; Venkatesh, Boddu; Haydel, Juanita; Mack, Charlotte; Creason, Jared

    2015-10-07

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. The present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. The increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

  12. Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... unignited releases from a user-defined hydrogen installation Questions Addressed Given a ... Will this enhance system safety? (If used with an economic model: is the increase in ...

  13. Performance model assessment for multi-junction concentrating photovoltaic systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Riley, Daniel M.; McConnell, Robert.; Sahm, Aaron; Crawford, Clark; King, David L.; Cameron, Christopher P.; Foresi, James S.

    2010-03-01

    Four approaches to modeling multi-junction concentrating photovoltaic system performance are assessed by comparing modeled performance to measured performance. Measured weather, irradiance, and system performance data were collected on two systems over a one month period. Residual analysis is used to assess the models and to identify opportunities for model improvement. Large photovoltaic systems are typically developed as projects which supply electricity to a utility and are owned by independent power producers. Obtaining financing at favorable rates and attracting investors requires confidence in the projected energy yield from the plant. In this paper, various performance models for projecting annual energy yield from Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV) systems are assessed by comparing measured system output to model predictions based on measured weather and irradiance data. The results are statistically analyzed to identify systematic error sources.

  14. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Findings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-07-16

    Often the methodologies for assessing proliferation risk are focused around the inherent vulnerability of nuclear energy systems and associated safeguards. For example an accepted approach involves ways to measure the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers to potential proliferation. This paper describes preliminary investigation into non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve proliferation assessment and advance the approach to assessing nuclear material diversion. Proliferation resistance assessment, safeguard assessments and related studies typically create technical information about the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to diversion of nuclear material. The purpose of this research project is to find ways to integrate social information with technical information by explicitly considering the role of culture, groups and/or individuals to factors that impact the possibility of proliferation. When final, this work is expected to describe and demonstrate the utility of social science modeling in proliferation and proliferation risk assessments.

  15. A Population Health Model for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-05-01

    This paper presents the initial results of a project to develop a population health model so we can extend the scenarios included in the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios to include population health status.

  16. An introduction to the COALTOWN impact assessment model. Staff report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bender, L.D.; Temple, G.S.; Parcels, L.C.

    1980-04-01

    The report is a layman's description of the COALTOWN simulation model. COALTOWN simulates future employment, population, wages, migration, state and local tax receipts and intergovernmental transfers, and local government expenditures for counties in Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota. It is designed to assess impacts of energy projects. Input data and output formats and uses of the model are described. The predictive accuracy of the estimated equations and the model limitations and shortcomings are cited.

  17. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-05-24

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint.

  18. Model and Analytic Processes for Export License Assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, Sandra E.; Whitney, Paul D.; Weimar, Mark R.; Wood, Thomas W.; Daly, Don S.; Brothers, Alan J.; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Cook, Diane; Holder, Larry

    2011-09-29

    This paper represents the Department of Energy Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development (NA-22) Simulations, Algorithms and Modeling (SAM) Program's first effort to identify and frame analytical methods and tools to aid export control professionals in effectively predicting proliferation intent; a complex, multi-step and multi-agency process. The report focuses on analytical modeling methodologies that alone, or combined, may improve the proliferation export control license approval process. It is a follow-up to an earlier paper describing information sources and environments related to international nuclear technology transfer. This report describes the decision criteria used to evaluate modeling techniques and tools to determine which approaches will be investigated during the final 2 years of the project. The report also details the motivation for why new modeling techniques and tools are needed. The analytical modeling methodologies will enable analysts to evaluate the information environment for relevance to detecting proliferation intent, with specific focus on assessing risks associated with transferring dual-use technologies. Dual-use technologies can be used in both weapons and commercial enterprises. A decision-framework was developed to evaluate which of the different analytical modeling methodologies would be most appropriate conditional on the uniqueness of the approach, data availability, laboratory capabilities, relevance to NA-22 and Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation (NA-24) research needs and the impact if successful. Modeling methodologies were divided into whether they could help micro-level assessments (e.g., help improve individual license assessments) or macro-level assessment. Macro-level assessment focuses on suppliers, technology, consumers, economies, and proliferation context. Macro-level assessment technologies scored higher in the area of uniqueness because less work has been done at the macro level. An approach to developing testable hypotheses for the macro-level assessment methodologies is provided. The outcome of this works suggests that we should develop a Bayes Net for micro-level analysis and continue to focus on Bayes Net, System Dynamics and Economic Input/Output models for assessing macro-level problems. Simultaneously, we need to develop metrics for assessing intent in export control, including the risks and consequences associated with all aspects of export control.

  19. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  20. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol. 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios.

  1. An integrated assessment of global and regional water demands for electricity generation to 2095

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davies, Evan; Kyle, G. Page; Edmonds, James A.

    2013-02-01

    Electric power plants currently account for approximately one-half of the global industrial water withdrawal. While continued expansion of the electric sector seems likely into the future, the consequent water demands are quite uncertain, and will depend on highly variable water intensities by electricity technologies, at present and in the future. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change, we first establish lower-bound, median, and upper-bound estimates for present-day electric sector water withdrawals and consumption by individual electric generation technologies in each of 14 geopolitical regions, and compare them with available estimates of regional industrial or electric sector water use. We then explore the evolution of global and regional electric sector water use over the next century, focusing on uncertainties related to withdrawal and consumption intensities for a variety of electric generation technologies, rates of change of power plant cooling system types, and rates of adoption of a suite of water-saving technologies. Results reveal that the water withdrawal intensity of electricity generation is likely to decrease in the near term with capital stock turnover, as wet towers replace once-through flow cooling systems and advanced electricity generation technologies replace conventional ones. An increase in consumptive use accompanies the decrease in water withdrawal rates; however, a suite of water conservation technologies currently under development could compensate for this increase in consumption. Finally, at a regional scale, water use characteristics vary significantly based on characteristics of the existing capital stock and the selection of electricity generation technologies into the future.

  2. PORFLOW Modeling Supporting The H-Tank Farm Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, J. M.; Flach, G. P.; Westbrook, M. L.

    2012-08-31

    Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the vadose and saturated zones have been conducted using the PORFLOW code in support of an overall Performance Assessment (PA) of the H-Tank Farm. This report provides technical detail on selected aspects of PORFLOW model development and describes the structure of the associated electronic files. The PORFLOW models for the H-Tank Farm PA, Rev. 1 were updated with grout, solubility, and inventory changes. The aquifer model was refined. In addition, a set of flow sensitivity runs were performed to allow flow to be varied in the related probabilistic GoldSim models. The final PORFLOW concentration values are used as input into a GoldSim dose calculator.

  3. Literature Review and Assessment of Plant and Animal Transfer Factors Used in Performance Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robertson, David E.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Sasser, Lyle B.

    2003-07-20

    A literature review and assessment was conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to update information on plant and animal radionuclide transfer factors used in performance-assessment modeling. A group of 15 radionuclides was included in this review and assessment. The review is composed of four main sections, not including the Introduction. Section 2.0 provides a review of the critically important issue of physicochemical speciation and geochemistry of the radionuclides in natural soil-water systems as it relates to the bioavailability of the radionuclides. Section 3.0 provides an updated review of the parameters of importance in the uptake of radionuclides by plants, including root uptake via the soil-groundwater system and foliar uptake due to overhead irrigation. Section 3.0 also provides a compilation of concentration ratios (CRs) for soil-to-plant uptake for the 15 selected radionuclides. Section 4.0 provides an updated review on radionuclide uptake data for animal products related to absorption, homeostatic control, approach to equilibration, chemical and physical form, diet, and age. Compiled transfer coefficients are provided for cows milk, sheeps milk, goats milk, beef, goat meat, pork, poultry, and eggs. Section 5.0 discusses the use of transfer coefficients in soil, plant, and animal modeling using regulatory models for evaluating radioactive waste disposal or decommissioned sites. Each section makes specific suggestions for future research in its area.

  4. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application. It is possible to have confidence in the predictions of many of the existing models because of their fundamental physical and chemical mechanistic underpinnings and the extensive work already done to compare model predictions and empirical observations. The working group recommends that modeling tools be applied for benchmarking PBT/POPs according to exposure-to-emissions relationships, and that modeling tools be used to interpret emissions and monitoring data. The further development of models that couple fate, long-range transport, and bioaccumulation should be fostered, especially models that will allow time trends to be scientifically addressed in the risk profile.

  5. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  6. A preliminary study to Assess Model Uncertainties in Fluid Flows

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marc Oliver Delchini; Jean C. Ragusa

    2009-09-01

    The goal of this study is to assess the impact of various flow models for a simplified primary coolant loop of a light water nuclear reactor. The various fluid flow models are based on the Euler equations with an additional friction term, gravity term, momentum source, and energy source. The geometric model is purposefully chosen simple and consists of a one-dimensional (1D) loop system in order to focus the study on the validity of various fluid flow approximations. The 1D loop system is represented by a rectangle; the fluid is heated up along one of the vertical legs and cooled down along the opposite leg. A pressurizer and a pump are included in the horizontal legs. The amount of energy transferred and removed from the system is equal in absolute value along the two vertical legs. The various fluid flow approximations are compressible vs. incompressible, and complete momentum equation vs. Darcys approximation. The ultimate goal is to compute the fluid flow models uncertainties and, if possible, to generate validity ranges for these models when applied to reactor analysis. We also limit this study to single phase flows with low-Mach numbers. As a result, sound waves carry a very small amount of energy in this particular case. A standard finite volume method is used for the spatial discretization of the system.

  7. An Inspector's Assessment of the New Model Safeguards Approach for Enrichment Plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Michael M.

    2007-07-31

    This conference paper assesses the changes that are being made to the Model Safeguards Approach for Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants.

  8. Assessment of PWR waterside corrosion models and data. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cox, B.

    1985-10-01

    The published data on waterside corrosion of PWR fuel cladding and unfuelled components have been reviewed, and the models used to assess the data have been studied. All corrosion models use too simplified a view of the corrosion process to obtain other than a general trend for the actual oxidation data. The in-reactor post-transition oxidation of the Zircaloys appears to be heavily dependent on water chemistry variations both between reactors, and along the length of an individual fuel rod. Crud deposition may be one primary cause of this, perhaps by allowing the independent development of the water chemistry within the crud layer, as much as by its effect on cladding surface temperatures. However, the effect of the thickening of the oxide film, which permits the development of an independent water chemistry inside the oxide, leading to an accelerating oxidation rate at large oxide thicknesses, seems to be the most important factor. It is concluded that a spectrum of results ranging from essentially no in-reactor enhancement of the oxidation rate to a sizeable enhancement (>10) may be seen depending upon the thickness of the oxide films, the water chemistry of the reactor, and crud deposition. A post-irradiation test that may help to distinguish between the factors involved has been suggested. 105 refs., 38 figs.

  9. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Enhancing a Facility-Level Model for Proliferation Resistance Assessment of a Nuclear Enegry System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Olson, Jarrod; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-10-26

    The Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment project (PL09-UtilSocial) investigates the use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessments, including nonproliferation assessments, Proliferation Resistance (PR) assessments, safeguards assessments, and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about a host State and its posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system (NES) to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This objective of this project is to find and integrate social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social, and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation; and to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment. This report describes a modeling approach and how it might be used to support a location-specific assessment of the PR assessment of a particular NES. The report demonstrates the use of social modeling to enhance an existing assessment process that relies on primarily technical factors. This effort builds on a literature review and preliminary assessment performed as the first stage of the project and compiled in PNNL-18438. [ T his report describes an effort to answer questions about whether it is possible to incorporate social modeling into a PR assessment in such a way that we can determine the effects of social factors on a primarily technical assessment. This report provides: 1. background information about relevant social factors literature; 2. background information about a particular PR assessment approach relevant to this particular demonstration; 3. a discussion of social modeling undertaken to find and characterize social factors that are relevant to the PR assessment of a nuclear facility in a specific location; 4. description of an enhancement concept that integrates social factors into an existing, technically based nuclear facility assessment; 5. a discussion of a way to engage with the owners of the PR assessment methodology to assess and improve the enhancement concept; 6. a discussion of implementation of the proposed approach, including a discussion of functionality and potential users; and 7. conclusions from the research. This report represents technical deliverables for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling program. Specifically this report is the Task 2 and 3 deliverables for project PL09-UtilSocial.

  10. THE PENA BLANCA NATURAL ANALOGUE PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G.J. Saulnier Jr; W. Statham

    2006-03-10

    The Nopal I uranium mine in the Sierra Pena Blanca, Chihuahua, Mexico serves as a natural analogue to the Yucca Mountain repository. The Pena Blanca Natural Analogue Performance Assessment Model simulates the mobilization and transport of radionuclides that are released from the mine and transported to the saturated zone. the Pena Blanca Natural Analogue Model uses probabilistic simulations of hydrogeologic processes that are analogous to the processes that occur at the Yucca Mountain site. The Nopal I uranium deposit lies in fractured, welded, and altered rhyolitic ash flow tuffs that overlie carbonate rocks, a setting analogous to the geologic formations at the Yucca Mountain site. The Nopal I mine site has the following characteristics as compared to the Yucca Mountain repository site. (1) Analogous source: UO{sub 2} uranium ore deposit = spent nuclear fuel in the repository; (2) Analogous geologic setting: fractured, welded, and altered rhyolitic ash flow tuffs overlying carbonate rocks; (3) Analogous climate: Semiarid to arid; (4) Analogous geochemistry: Oxidizing conditions; and (5) Analogous hydrogeology: The ore deposit lies in the unsaturated zone above the water table. The Nopal I deposit is approximately 8 {+-} 0.5 million years old and has been exposed to oxidizing conditions during the last 3.2 to 3.4 million years. The Pena Blanca Natural Analogue Model considers that the uranium oxide and uranium silicates in the ore deposit were originally analogous to uranium-oxide spent nuclear fuel. The Pena Blanca site has been characterized using field and laboratory investigations of its fault and fracture distribution, mineralogy, fracture fillings, seepage into the mine adits, regional hydrology, and mineralization that shows the extent of radionuclide migration. Three boreholes were drilled at the Nopal I mine site in 2003 and these boreholes have provided samples for lithologic characterization, water-level measurements, and water samples for laboratory analysis of the saturated zone water chemistry. The results of the field investigations and laboratory analyses of rock and water samples collected at Nopal I are used to calibrate the Pena Blanca Natural Analogue Model.

  11. Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestration and Land Use Emissions Using Detailed Model Results and Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Atul Jain

    2005-04-17

    This report outlines the progress on the development and application of Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestrations and Land Use Emissions supported by the DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DOE-DE-FG02-01ER63069. The overall objective of this collaborative project between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was to unite the latest advances in carbon cycle research with scientifically based models and policy-related integrated assessment tools that incorporate computationally efficient representations of the latest knowledge concerning science and emission trajectories, and their policy implications. As part of this research we accomplished the following tasks that we originally proposed: (1) In coordination with LLNL and ORNL, we enhanced the Integrated Science Assessment Model's (ISAM) parametric representation of the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycles that better represent spatial and seasonal variations, which are important to study the mechanisms that influence carbon sequestration in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems; (2) Using the MiniCAM modeling capability, we revised the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios; IPCC, 2000) land use emission scenarios; and (3) On the application front, the enhanced version of ISAM modeling capability is applied to understand how short- and long-term natural carbon fluxes, carbon sequestration, and human emissions contribute to the net global emissions (concentrations) trajectories required to reach various concentration (emission) targets. Under this grant, 21 research publications were produced. In addition, this grant supported a number of graduate and undergraduate students whose fundamental research was to learn a disciplinary field in climate change (e.g., ecological dynamics and ocean circulations) and then complete research on how this field could be linked to the other factors we need to consider in its dynamics (e.g., land use, ocean and terrestrial carbon sequestration and climate change).

  12. Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar | Department of Energy HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar Access the recording and download the presentation slides from the Fuel Cell Technologies Office webinar "Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety,

  13. Computation Modeling and Assessment of Nanocoatings for Ultra Supercritical Boilers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Shingledecker; D. Gandy; N. Cheruvu; R. Wei; K. Chan

    2011-06-21

    Forced outages and boiler unavailability of coal-fired fossil plants is most often caused by fire-side corrosion of boiler waterwalls and tubing. Reliable coatings are required for Ultrasupercritical (USC) application to mitigate corrosion since these boilers will operate at a much higher temperatures and pressures than in supercritical (565 C {at} 24 MPa) boilers. Computational modeling efforts have been undertaken to design and assess potential Fe-Cr-Ni-Al systems to produce stable nanocrystalline coatings that form a protective, continuous scale of either Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} or Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}. The computational modeling results identified a new series of Fe-25Cr-40Ni with or without 10 wt.% Al nanocrystalline coatings that maintain long-term stability by forming a diffusion barrier layer at the coating/substrate interface. The computational modeling predictions of microstructure, formation of continuous Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} scale, inward Al diffusion, grain growth, and sintering behavior were validated with experimental results. Advanced coatings, such as MCrAl (where M is Fe, Ni, or Co) nanocrystalline coatings, have been processed using different magnetron sputtering deposition techniques. Several coating trials were performed and among the processing methods evaluated, the DC pulsed magnetron sputtering technique produced the best quality coating with a minimum number of shallow defects and the results of multiple deposition trials showed that the process is repeatable. scale, inward Al diffusion, grain growth, and sintering behavior were validated with experimental results. The cyclic oxidation test results revealed that the nanocrystalline coatings offer better oxidation resistance, in terms of weight loss, localized oxidation, and formation of mixed oxides in the Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} scale, than widely used MCrAlY coatings. However, the ultra-fine grain structure in these coatings, consistent with the computational model predictions, resulted in accelerated Al diffusion from the coating into the substrate. An effective diffusion barrier interlayer coating was developed to prevent inward Al diffusion. The fire-side corrosion test results showed that the nanocrystalline coatings with a minimum number of defects have a great potential in providing corrosion protection. The coating tested in the most aggressive environment showed no evidence of coating spallation and/or corrosion attack after 1050 hours exposure. In contrast, evidence of coating spallation in isolated areas and corrosion attack of the base metal in the spalled areas were observed after 500 hours. These contrasting results after 500 and 1050 hours exposure suggest that the premature coating spallation in isolated areas may be related to the variation of defects in the coating between the samples. It is suspected that the cauliflower-type defects in the coating were presumably responsible for coating spallation in isolated areas. Thus, a defect free good quality coating is the key for the long-term durability of nanocrystalline coatings in corrosive environments. Thus, additional process optimization work is required to produce defect-free coatings prior to development of a coating application method for production parts.

  14. Assessing Models of Public Understanding In ELSI Outreach Materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bruce V. Lewenstein, Ph.D.; Dominique Brossard, Ph.D.

    2006-03-01

    Advances in the science of genetics have implications for individuals and society, and have to be taken into account at the policy level. Studies of ethical, legal and social issues related to genomic research have therefore been integrated in the Human Genome Project (HGP) since the earliest days of the project. Since 1990, three to five percent of the HGP annual budget has been devoted to such studies, under the umbrella of the Ethical, Legal, and Social Implications (ELSI) Programs of the National Human Genome Research Institute of the National Institute of Health, and of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The DOE-ELSI budget has been used to fund a variety of projects that have aimed at ?promoting education and help guide the conduct of genetic research and the development of related medical and public policies? (HGP, 2003). As part of the educational component, a significant portion of DOE-ELSI funds have been dedicated to public outreach projects, with the underlying goal of promoting public awareness and ultimately public discussion of ethical, legal, and social issues surrounding availability of genetic information (Drell, 2002). The essential assumption behind these projects is that greater access to information will lead to more knowledge about ethical, legal and social issues, which in turn will lead to enhanced ability on the part of individuals and communities to deal with these issues when they encounter them. Over the same period of time, new concepts of ?public understanding of science? have emerged in the theoretical realm, moving from a ?deficit? or linear dissemination of popularization, to models stressing lay-knowledge, public engagement and public participation in science policy-making (Lewenstein, 2003). The present project uses the base of DOE-funded ELSI educational project to explore the ways that information about a new and emerging area of science that is intertwined with public issues has been used in educational public settings to affect public understanding of science. After a theoretical background discussion, our approach is three-fold. First, we will provide an overview, a ?map? of DOE-funded of outreach programs within the overall ELSI context to identify the importance of the educational component, and to present the criteria we used to select relevant and representative case studies. Second, we will document the history of the case studies. Finally, we will explore an intertwined set of research questions: (1) To identify what we can expect such projects to accomplish -in other words to determine the goals that can reasonably be achieved by different types of outreach, (2) To point out how the case study approach could be useful for DOE-ELSI outreach as a whole, and (3) To use the case study approach as a basis to test theoretical models of science outreach in order to assess to what extent those models accord with real world outreach activities. For this last goal, we aim at identifying what practices among ELSI outreach activities contribute most to dissemination, or to participation, in other words in which cases outreach materials spark action in terms of public participation in decisions about scientific issues.

  15. Models used to assess the performance of photovoltaic systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Klise, Geoffrey T.

    2009-12-01

    This report documents the various photovoltaic (PV) performance models and software developed and utilized by researchers at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in support of the Photovoltaics and Grid Integration Department. In addition to PV performance models, hybrid system and battery storage models are discussed. A hybrid system using other distributed sources and energy storage can help reduce the variability inherent in PV generation, and due to the complexity of combining multiple generation sources and system loads, these models are invaluable for system design and optimization. Energy storage plays an important role in reducing PV intermittency and battery storage models are used to understand the best configurations and technologies to store PV generated electricity. Other researcher's models used by SNL are discussed including some widely known models that incorporate algorithms developed at SNL. There are other models included in the discussion that are not used by or were not adopted from SNL research but may provide some benefit to researchers working on PV array performance, hybrid system models and energy storage. The paper is organized into three sections to describe the different software models as applied to photovoltaic performance, hybrid systems, and battery storage. For each model, there is a description which includes where to find the model, whether it is currently maintained and any references that may be available. Modeling improvements underway at SNL include quantifying the uncertainty of individual system components, the overall uncertainty in modeled vs. measured results and modeling large PV systems. SNL is also conducting research into the overall reliability of PV systems.

  16. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

    2015-01-15

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

  17. Models Used to Assess the Performance of Photovoltaic Systems

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This report documents the various photovoltaic (PV) performance models and software developed and utilized by researchers at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in support of the Photovoltaics and Grid Integration Department. In addition to PV performance models, hybrid system and battery storage models are discussed. A hybrid system using other distributed sources and energy storage can help reduce the variability inherent in PV generation, and due to the complexity of combining multiple generation sources and system loads, these models are invaluable for system design and optimization.

  18. A new analytic-adaptive model for EGS assessment, development...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ability to quantitative test hypotheses for new EGS designs and technologies, as well as reservoir sustainability modeling. Funding Source American Recovery and Reinvestment Act...

  19. Co-benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) Screening Model | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.epa.govstatelocalclimateresourcescobra.html Cost: Free Related Tools Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) Model Simple...

  20. Assessment of Combustion and Turbulence Models for the Simulation...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Various applied combustion and turbulence models were investigated along with chemical kinetic mechanisms simulating a biodiesel-fueled engine PDF icon deer09ren.pdf More ...

  1. Conceptual design of an integrated technology model for carbon policy assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.; Dimotakes, Paul E.

    2011-01-01

    This report describes the conceptual design of a technology choice model for understanding strategies to reduce carbon intensity in the electricity sector. The report considers the major modeling issues affecting technology policy assessment and defines an implementable model construct. Further, the report delineates the basis causal structure of such a model and attempts to establish the technical/algorithmic viability of pursuing model development along with the associated analyses.

  2. Using a Simple Binomial Model to Assess Improvement in Predictive...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    simulation codes and uses a simple binomial model for the probability, theta, that, in an experiment chosen at random, the new code will provide a better prediction than the old. ...

  3. Webinar April 26: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards | Department of Energy April 26: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar April 26: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards April 21, 2016 - 9:44am Addthis The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based

  4. Webinar: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards | Department of Energy Webinar: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards April 26, 2016 12:00PM to 1:00PM EDT The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes,

  5. As-Built Modeling of Ojbects for Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kokko, E J; Martz, H E; Chinn, D J; Childs, H R; Jackson, J A; Chambers, D H; Schneberk, D J; Clark, G A

    2005-09-12

    The goal of ''as-built'' computational modeling is to incorporate the most representative geometry and material information for an (fabricated or legacy) object into simulations. While most engineering finite element simulations are based on an object's idealized ''as-designed'' configuration with information obtained from technical drawings or computer-aided design models, ''as-built'' modeling uses nondestructive characterization and metrology techniques to provide the feature information. By incorporating more representative geometry and material features as initial conditions, the uncertainty in the simulation results can be reduced, providing a more realistic understanding of the event and object being modeled. In this paper, key steps and technology areas in the as-built modeling framework are: (1) inspection using non-destructive characterization (NDC) and metrology techniques; (2) data reduction (signal and image processing including artifact removal, data sensor fusion, and geometric feature extraction); and (3) engineering and physics analysis using finite element codes. We illustrate the process with a cylindrical phantom and include a discussion of the key concepts and areas that need improvement. Our results show that reasonable as-built initial conditions based on a volume overlap criteria can be achieved and that notable differences between simulations of the as-built and as-designed configurations can be observed for a given load case. Specifically, a volume averaged difference of accumulated plastic strain of 3% and local spatially varying differences up to 10%. The example presented provides motivation and justification to engineering teams for the additional effort required in the as-built modeling of high value parts. Further validation of the approach has been proposed as future work.

  6. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Northern Eurasia (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon

  7. An Assessment of Interval Data and Their Potential Application to Residential Electricity End-Use Modeling

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    An Assessment of Interval Data and Their Potential Application to Residential Electricity End- Use Modeling February 2015 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | An Assessment of Interval Data and Their Potential Application to Residential Electricity End-Use Modeling i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S.

  8. Utility of Social Modeling in Assessment of a State’s Propensity for Nuclear Proliferation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Dalton, Angela C.; Olson, Jarrod; White, Amanda M.; Cooley, Scott K.; Youchak, Paul M.; Stafford, Samuel V.

    2011-06-01

    This report is the third and final report out of a set of three reports documenting research for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Security Administration (NASA) Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling program that investigates how social modeling can be used to improve proliferation assessment for informing nuclear security, policy, safeguards, design of nuclear systems and research decisions. Social modeling has not to have been used to any significant extent in a proliferation studies. This report focuses on the utility of social modeling as applied to the assessment of a State's propensity to develop a nuclear weapons program.

  9. Climate Change Modeling and Downscaling Issues and Methodological Perspectives for the U.S. National Climate Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Janetos, Anthony C.; Collins, William D.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah; Hayhoe, Katharine; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Hurtt, George

    2012-03-31

    This is the full workshop report for the modeling workshop we did for the National Climate Assessment, with DOE support.

  10. Baseline Assessment of TREAT for Modeling and Analysis Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bess, John Darrell; DeHart, Mark David

    2015-10-01

    TREAT is an air-cooled, graphite moderated, thermal, heterogeneous test facility designed to evaluate reactor fuels and structural materials under conditions simulating various types of nuclear excursions and transient undercooling situations that could occur in a nuclear reactor. After 21 years in a standby mode, TREAT is being re-activated to revive transient testing capabilities. Given the time elapsed and the concurrent loss of operating experience, current generation and advanced computational methods are being applied to begin TREAT modeling and simulation prior to renewed at-power operations. Such methods have limited value in predicting the behavior of TREAT without proper validation. Hence, the U.S. DOE has developed a number of programs to support development of benchmarks for both critical and transient operations. Extensive effort has been expended at INL to collect detailed descriptions, drawings and specifications for all aspects of TREAT, and to resolve conflicting data found through this process. This report provides a collection of these data, with updated figures that are significantly more readable than historic drawings and illustrations, compositions, and dimensions based on the best available sources. This document is not nor should it be considered to be a benchmark report. Rather, it is intended to provide one-stop shopping, to the extent possible, for other work that seeks to prepare detailed, accurate models of the core and its components. Given the nature of the variety of historic documents available and the loss of institutional memory, the only completely accurate database of TREAT data is TREAT itself. Unfortunately, disassembly of TREAT for inspection, assay, and measurement is highly unlikely. Hence the data provided herein is intended serve as a best-estimate substitute.

  11. Computational Modeling and Assessment Of Nanocoatings for Ultra Supercritical Boilers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David W. Gandy; John P. Shingledecker

    2011-04-11

    Forced outages and boiler unavailability in conventional coal-fired fossil power plants is most often caused by fireside corrosion of boiler waterwalls. Industry-wide, the rate of wall thickness corrosion wastage of fireside waterwalls in fossil-fired boilers has been of concern for many years. It is significant that the introduction of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission controls with staged burners systems has increased reported waterwall wastage rates to as much as 120 mils (3 mm) per year. Moreover, the reducing environment produced by the low-NOx combustion process is the primary cause of accelerated corrosion rates of waterwall tubes made of carbon and low alloy steels. Improved coatings, such as the MCrAl nanocoatings evaluated here (where M is Fe, Ni, and Co), are needed to reduce/eliminate waterwall damage in subcritical, supercritical, and ultra-supercritical (USC) boilers. The first two tasks of this six-task project-jointly sponsored by EPRI and the U.S. Department of Energy (DE-FC26-07NT43096)-have focused on computational modeling of an advanced MCrAl nanocoating system and evaluation of two nanocrystalline (iron and nickel base) coatings, which will significantly improve the corrosion and erosion performance of tubing used in USC boilers. The computational model results showed that about 40 wt.% is required in Fe based nanocrystalline coatings for long-term durability, leading to a coating composition of Fe-25Cr-40Ni-10 wt.% Al. In addition, the long term thermal exposure test results further showed accelerated inward diffusion of Al from the nanocrystalline coatings into the substrate. In order to enhance the durability of these coatings, it is necessary to develop a diffusion barrier interlayer coating such TiN and/or AlN. The third task 'Process Advanced MCrAl Nanocoating Systems' of the six-task project jointly sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI and the U.S. Department of Energy (DE-FC26-07NT43096)- has focused on processing of advanced nanocrystalline coating systems and development of diffusion barrier interlayer coatings. Among the diffusion interlayer coatings evaluated, the TiN interlayer coating was found to be the optimum one. This report describes the research conducted under the Task 3 workscope.

  12. EERE Success Story-MA3T Model Application at ORNL Assesses the Future of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Fuel Cell Markets | Department of Energy MA3T Model Application at ORNL Assesses the Future of Fuel Cell Markets EERE Success Story-MA3T Model Application at ORNL Assesses the Future of Fuel Cell Markets July 26, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis Leveraging funding from the Fuel Cell Technologies Office, Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL) has developed a model for simulating the market potential of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and challenges to achieving success over time, including competition with

  13. Common-Cause Failure Treatment in Event Assessment: Basis for a Proposed New Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dana Kelly; Song-Hua Shen; Gary DeMoss; Kevin Coyne; Don Marksberry

    2010-06-01

    Event assessment is an application of probabilistic risk assessment in which observed equipment failures and outages are mapped into the risk model to obtain a numerical estimate of the events risk significance. In this paper, we focus on retrospective assessments to estimate the risk significance of degraded conditions such as equipment failure accompanied by a deficiency in a process such as maintenance practices. In modeling such events, the basic events in the risk model that are associated with observed failures and other off-normal situations are typically configured to be failed, while those associated with observed successes and unchallenged components are assumed capable of failing, typically with their baseline probabilities. This is referred to as the failure memory approach to event assessment. The conditioning of common-cause failure probabilities for the common cause component group associated with the observed component failure is particularly important, as it is insufficient to simply leave these probabilities at their baseline values, and doing so may result in a significant underestimate of risk significance for the event. Past work in this area has focused on the mathematics of the adjustment. In this paper, we review the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, which underlies most current risk modelling, discuss the limitations of this model with respect to event assessment, and introduce a proposed new framework for common-cause failure, which uses a Bayesian network to model underlying causes of failure, and which has the potential to overcome the limitations of the Basic Parameter Model with respect to event assessment.

  14. Source-term development for a contaminant plume for use by multimedia risk assessment models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whelan, Gene ); McDonald, John P. ); Taira, Randal Y. ); Gnanapragasam, Emmanuel K.; Yu, Charley; Lew, Christine S.; Mills, William B.

    1999-12-01

    Multimedia modelers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to conduct a comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking analysis of four intermedia models: DOE's Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), EPA's MMSOILS, EPA's PRESTO, and DOE's RESidual RADioactivity (RESRAD). These models represent typical analytically, semi-analytically, and empirically based tools that are utilized in human risk and endangerment assessments for use at installations containing radioactive and/or hazardous contaminants. Although the benchmarking exercise traditionally emphasizes the application and comparison of these models, the establishment of a Conceptual Site Model (CSM) should be viewed with equal importance. This paper reviews an approach for developing a CSM of an existing, real-world, Sr-90 plume at DOE's Hanford installation in Richland, Washington, for use in a multimedia-based benchmarking exercise bet ween MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. In an unconventional move for analytically based modeling, the benchmarking exercise will begin with the plume as the source of contamination. The source and release mechanism are developed and described within the context of performing a preliminary risk assessment utilizing these analytical models. By beginning with the plume as the source term, this paper reviews a typical process and procedure an analyst would follow in developing a CSM for use in a preliminary assessment using this class of analytical tool.

  15. Systematic Assessment of Neutron and Gamma Backgrounds Relevant to Operational Modeling and Detection Technology Implementation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Archer, Daniel E.; Hornback, Donald Eric; Johnson, Jeffrey O.; Nicholson, Andrew D.; Patton, Bruce W.; Peplow, Douglas E.; Miller, Thomas Martin; Ayaz-Maierhafer, Birsen

    2015-01-01

    This report summarizes the findings of a two year effort to systematically assess neutron and gamma backgrounds relevant to operational modeling and detection technology implementation. The first year effort focused on reviewing the origins of background sources and their impact on measured rates in operational scenarios of interest. The second year has focused on the assessment of detector and algorithm performance as they pertain to operational requirements against the various background sources and background levels.

  16. SOCIAL MODELING IN ASSESSEMENT OF A STATES PROPENSITY FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.

    2011-07-17

    This paper presents approach for assessing a States propensity for nuclear weapons proliferation using social modeling. We supported this modeling by first reviewing primarily literature by social scientists on factors related to the propensity of a State to proliferation and by leveraging existing relevant data compiled by social scientists. We performed a number of validation tests on our model including one that incorporates use of benchmark data defining the proliferation status of countries in the years between 1945 and 2000. We exercise the BN model against a number of country cases representing different perceived levels of proliferation risk. We also describe how the BN model could be further refined to be a proliferation assessment tool for decision making.

  17. Verification and validation of the decision analysis model for assessment of tank waste remediation system waste treatment strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Awadalla, N.G.; Eaton, S.C.F.

    1996-09-04

    This document is the verification and validation final report for the Decision Analysis Model for Assessment of Tank Waste Remediation System Waste Treatment Strategies. This model is also known as the INSIGHT Model.

  18. Assessment of Drag Models for Geldart A Particles in Bubbling Fluidized Beds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Estejab, Bahareh; Battaglia, Francine

    2015-10-08

    In order to accurately predict the hydrodynamic behavior of gas and solid phases using an Eulerian–Eulerian approach, it is crucial to use appropriate drag models to capture the correct physics. In this study, the performance of seven drag models for fluidization of Geldart A particles of coal, poplar wood, and their mixtures was assessed. In spite of the previous findings that bode badly for using predominately Geldart B drag models for fine particles, the results of our study revealed that if static regions of mass in the fluidized beds are considered, these drag models work well with Geldart A particles. It was found that drag models derived from empirical relationships adopt better with Geldart A particles compared to drag models that were numerically developed. Overall, the Huilin–Gidaspow drag model showed the best performance for both single solid phases and binary mixtures, however, for binary mixtures, Wen–Yu model predictions were also accurate.

  19. SUMO, System performance assessment for a high-level nuclear waste repository: Mathematical models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslinger, P.W.; Miley, T.B.; Engel, D.W.; Chamberlain, P.J. II

    1992-09-01

    Following completion of the preliminary risk assessment of the potential Yucca Mountain Site by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) in 1988, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) requested the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL to develop an integrated system model and computer code that provides performance and risk assessment analysis capabilities for a potential high-level nuclear waste repository. The system model that has been developed addresses the cumulative radionuclide release criteria established by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and estimates population risks in terms of dose to humans. The system model embodied in the SUMO (System Unsaturated Model) code will also allow benchmarking of other models being developed for the Yucca Mountain Project. The system model has three natural divisions: (1) source term, (2) far-field transport, and (3) dose to humans. This document gives a detailed description of the mathematics of each of these three divisions. Each of the governing equations employed is based on modeling assumptions that are widely accepted within the scientific community.

  20. An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Randerson, James T [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Bonan, Gordon [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Erickson III, David J [ORNL; Fung, Inez [University of California, Berkeley

    2009-12-01

    The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons of the CLM3 offline results against observational datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). CLM version 4 has been evaluated using C-LAMP, showing improvement in many of the metrics. Efforts are now underway to initiate a Nitrogen-Land Model Intercomparison Project (N-LAMP) to better constrain the effects of the nitrogen cycle in biosphere models. Presented will be new results from C-LAMP for CLM4, initial N-LAMP developments, and the proposed land-biosphere model benchmarking activity.

  1. Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assessment of the Surveillance Program of the High-Level Waste Storage Tanks at Hanford :.~I LALI i~E REJ 163 ROOM 1t 4 F77L.~ ~ -_77 .:earmn OfEeg Asitn Sertr fo niomn 4 z. r _________ rment of the Surveilance Prograrn of the High-Level Storage- Tanks at Hanford P. E WOOD Robert J. Catln, Deputy Directat - Office of Environmental Compliance and Overview Office of Environment MARCH 1980 Report to the U.S. Departrent of Energy Assistant Secretary for Environment Washkngon, DC C March 27, 1980

  2. Annual report, October 1980-September 1981 Multimedia radionuclide exposure assessment modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whelan, G.; Onishi, Y.; Simmons, C.S.; Horst, T.W.; Gupta, S.K.; Orgill, M.M.; Newbill, C.A.

    1982-12-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are jointly developing a methodology for assessing exposures of the air, water, and plants to radionuclides as part of an overall development effort of a radionuclide disposal site evaluation methodology. Work in FY-1981 continued the development of the Multimedia Contaminant Environmental Exposure Assessment (MCEA) methodology and initiated an assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons, New Mexico, using the methodology. The AIRTRAN model was completed, briefly tested, and documented. In addition, a literature search for existing validation data for AIRTRAN was performed. The feasibility and advisability of including the UNSAT moisture flow model as a submodel of the terrestrial code BIOTRAN was assessed. A preliminary application of the proposed MCEA methodology, as it related to the Mortandad-South Mortandad Canyon site in New Mexico is discussed. This preliminary application represented a scaled-down version of the methodology in which only the terrestrial, overland, and surface water components were used. An update describing the progress in the assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons is presented. 38 references, 47 figures, 11 tables.

  3. Analysis report for WIPP colloid model constraints and performance assessment parameters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mariner, Paul E.; Sassani, David Carl

    2014-03-01

    An analysis of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) colloid model constraints and parameter values was performed. The focus of this work was primarily on intrinsic colloids, mineral fragment colloids, and humic substance colloids, with a lesser focus on microbial colloids. Comments by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) concerning intrinsic Th(IV) colloids and Mg-Cl-OH mineral fragment colloids were addressed in detail, assumptions and data used to constrain colloid model calculations were evaluated, and inconsistencies between data and model parameter values were identified. This work resulted in a list of specific conclusions regarding model integrity, model conservatism, and opportunities for improvement related to each of the four colloid types included in the WIPP performance assessment.

  4. Model Components of the Certification Framework for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Bryant, Steven L.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Kumar, Navanit; Zhang, Yingqi; Jordan, Preston; Pan, Lehua; Granvold, Patrick; Chow, Fotini K.

    2009-06-01

    We have developed a framework for assessing the leakage risk of geologic carbon sequestration sites. This framework, known as the Certification Framework (CF), emphasizes wells and faults as the primary potential leakage conduits. Vulnerable resources are grouped into compartments, and impacts due to leakage are quantified by the leakage flux or concentrations that could potentially occur in compartments under various scenarios. The CF utilizes several model components to simulate leakage scenarios. One model component is a catalog of results of reservoir simulations that can be queried to estimate plume travel distances and times, rather than requiring CF users to run new reservoir simulations for each case. Other model components developed for the CF and described here include fault characterization using fault-population statistics; fault connection probability using fuzzy rules; well-flow modeling with a drift-flux model implemented in TOUGH2; and atmospheric dense-gas dispersion using a mesoscale weather prediction code.

  5. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for BWR Shutdown Modes 4 and 5 Integrated in SPAR Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. T. Khericha; S. Sancakter; J. Mitman; J. Wood

    2010-06-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during modes 4, 5, and 6 can be significant This paper describes development of the standard template risk evaluation models for shutdown modes 4, and 5 for commercial boiling water nuclear power plants (BWR). The shutdown probabilistic risk assessment model uses full power Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRCs) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The shutdown PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from SPAR full power model with shutdown event tree logic. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheet, including the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate HEP of interest. The preliminary results indicate the risk is dominated by the operators ability to diagnose the events and provide long term cooling.

  6. TSD-DOSE: A radiological dose assessment model for treatment, storage, and disposal facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pfingston, M.; Arnish, J.; LePoire, D.; Chen, S.-Y.

    1998-10-14

    Past practices at US Department of Energy (DOE) field facilities resulted in the presence of trace amounts of radioactive materials in some hazardous chemical wastes shipped from these facilities. In May 1991, the DOE Office of Waste Operations issued a nationwide moratorium on shipping all hazardous waste until procedures could be established to ensure that only nonradioactive hazardous waste would be shipped from DOE facilities to commercial treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. To aid in assessing the potential impacts of shipments of mixed radioactive and chemically hazardous wastes, a radiological assessment computer model (or code) was developed on the basis of detailed assessments of potential radiological exposures and doses for eight commercial hazardous waste TSD facilities. The model, called TSD-DOSE, is designed to incorporate waste-specific and site-specific data to estimate potential radiological doses to on-site workers and the off-site public from waste-handling operations at a TSD facility. The code is intended to provide both DOE and commercial TSD facilities with a rapid and cost-effective method for assessing potential human radiation exposures from the processing of chemical wastes contaminated with trace amounts of radionuclides.

  7. Modeling threat assessments of water supply systems using markov latent effects methodology.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Silva, Consuelo Juanita

    2006-12-01

    Recent amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act emphasize efforts toward safeguarding our nation's water supplies against attack and contamination. Specifically, the Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 established requirements for each community water system serving more than 3300 people to conduct an assessment of the vulnerability of its system to a terrorist attack or other intentional acts. Integral to evaluating system vulnerability is the threat assessment, which is the process by which the credibility of a threat is quantified. Unfortunately, full probabilistic assessment is generally not feasible, as there is insufficient experience and/or data to quantify the associated probabilities. For this reason, an alternative approach is proposed based on Markov Latent Effects (MLE) modeling, which provides a framework for quantifying imprecise subjective metrics through possibilistic or fuzzy mathematics. Here, an MLE model for water systems is developed and demonstrated to determine threat assessments for different scenarios identified by the assailant, asset, and means. Scenario assailants include terrorists, insiders, and vandals. Assets include a water treatment plant, water storage tank, node, pipeline, well, and a pump station. Means used in attacks include contamination (onsite chemicals, biological and chemical), explosives and vandalism. Results demonstrated highest threats are vandalism events and least likely events are those performed by a terrorist.

  8. Chapter 6: Innovating Clean Energy Technologies in Advanced Manufacturing | Advanced Sensors, Controls, Platforms and Modeling for Manufacturing Technology Assessment

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Advanced Sensors, Controls, Platforms and Modeling for Manufacturing Chapter 6: Technology Assessments NOTE: This technology assessment is available as an appendix to the 2015 Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR). Advanced Sensors, Controls, Platforms and Modeling for Manufacturing is one of fourteen manufacturing-focused technology assessments prepared in support of Chapter 6: Innovating Clean Energy Technologies in Advanced Manufacturing. For context within the 2015 QTR, key connections between

  9. Performance Assessment Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses of Generic Disposal System Concepts.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sevougian, S. David; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Gardner, William Payton; Hammond, Glenn Edward; Mariner, Paul

    2014-09-01

    directly, rather than through simplified abstractions. It also a llows for complex representations of the source term, e.g., the explicit representation of many individual waste packages (i.e., meter - scale detail of an entire waste emplacement drift). This report fulfills the Generic Disposal System Analysis Work Packa ge Level 3 Milestone - Performance Assessment Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses of Generic Disposal System Concepts (M 3 FT - 1 4 SN08080 3 2 ).

  10. HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Webinar | April 26, 2016 | 12-1

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    p.m. EDT HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Webinar | April 26, 2016 | 12-1 p.m. EDT - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery

  11. Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tavoni, Massimo; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Aboumahboub, Tino; Bowen, Alex; Calvin, Katherine V.; Campiglio, Emanuele; Kober, Tom; Jewell, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David; van Sluisveld, Mariesse; Zimmer, Anne; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2014-12-15

    Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

  12. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRCs) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The components fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRCs ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  13. Assessment of Drag Models for Geldart A Particles in Bubbling Fluidized Beds

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Estejab, Bahareh; Battaglia, Francine

    2015-10-08

    In order to accurately predict the hydrodynamic behavior of gas and solid phases using an Eulerian–Eulerian approach, it is crucial to use appropriate drag models to capture the correct physics. In this study, the performance of seven drag models for fluidization of Geldart A particles of coal, poplar wood, and their mixtures was assessed. In spite of the previous findings that bode badly for using predominately Geldart B drag models for fine particles, the results of our study revealed that if static regions of mass in the fluidized beds are considered, these drag models work well with Geldart A particles.more » It was found that drag models derived from empirical relationships adopt better with Geldart A particles compared to drag models that were numerically developed. Overall, the Huilin–Gidaspow drag model showed the best performance for both single solid phases and binary mixtures, however, for binary mixtures, Wen–Yu model predictions were also accurate.« less

  14. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greg J. Shott, Vefa Yucel, Lloyd Desotell; Non-Nstec Authors: G. Pyles and Jon Carilli

    2007-06-01

    Performance assessments for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site on the Nevada Test Site have used three different mathematical models to estimate Rn-222 flux density. This study describes the performance, uncertainty, and sensitivity of the three models which include the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 3.64 analytical method and two numerical methods. The uncertainty of each model was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using Latin hypercube sampling. The global sensitivity was investigated using Morris one-at-time screening method, sample-based correlation and regression methods, the variance-based extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and Sobol's sensitivity indices. The models were found to produce similar estimates of the mean and median flux density, but to have different uncertainties and sensitivities. When the Rn-222 effective diffusion coefficient was estimated using five different published predictive models, the radon flux density models were found to be most sensitive to the effective diffusion coefficient model selected, the emanation coefficient, and the radionuclide inventory. Using a site-specific measured effective diffusion coefficient significantly reduced the output uncertainty. When a site-specific effective-diffusion coefficient was used, the models were most sensitive to the emanation coefficient and the radionuclide inventory.

  15. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of demands to river basins to create hydro-economic zones that respect as much as possible both political and hydrologic integrity in different models. - To minimize pre-processing of data and add increased flexibility to modeling water resources and uses, it is recommended that water withdrawal demands be modeled, not consumptive requirements even though this makes the IAM more complex. - IAMs must consider changes in water availability for irrigation under climate change; ignoring them is more inaccurate than ignoring yield changes in crops under climate change. - Determining water availability and cost in river basins must include modeling streamflows, reservoirs and their operations, and ground water and its interaction with surface water. - Scale issues are important. The results from condensing demands and supplies in a large complex river basin to one node can be misleading for all uses under low flow conditions and instream flow uses under all conditions. Monthly is generally the most accurate scale for modeling river flows and demands. Challenges remain in integrating hydrologic units with political boundaries but the gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with political boundaries. - Using minimal reservoir cost data, it is possible to use basin topography to estimate reservoir storage costs. - Reservoir evaporation must be considered when assessing the usable water in a watershed. Several methods are available to estimate the relationship between aggregated storage surface area and storage volume. - For existing or future IAMs that can not use the appropriate aggregation for water, a water preprocessor may be required due the finer scale of hydrologic impacts.

  16. Soil-to-Plant Concentration Ratios for Assessing Food Chain Pathways in Biosphere Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Fellows, Robert J.; Krupka, Kenneth M.

    2007-10-01

    This report describes work performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissions project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report summarizes characteristics of samples of soils and groundwater from three geographical regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and analyses performed to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Because the uptake and behavior of radionuclides in plant roots, plant leaves, and animal products depends on the chemistry of the water and soil coming in contact with plants and animals, water and soil samples collected from these regions of the United States were used in experiments at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to determine radionuclide soil-to-plant concentration ratios. Crops and forage used in the experiments were grown in the soils, and long-lived radionuclides introduced into the groundwater provide the contaminated water used to water the grown plants. The radionuclides evaluated include 99Tc, 238Pu, and 241Am. Plant varieties include alfalfa, corn, onion, and potato. The radionuclide uptake results from this research study show how regional variations in water quality and soil chemistry affect radionuclide uptake. Section 3 summarizes the procedures and results of the uptake experiments, and relates the soil-to-plant uptake factors derived. In Section 4, the results found in this study are compared with similar values found in the biosphere modeling literature; the studys results are generally in line with current literature, but soil- and plant-specific differences are noticeable. This food-chain pathway data may be used by the NRC staff to assess dose to persons in the reference biosphere (e.g., persons who live and work in an area potentially affected by radionuclide releases) of waste disposal facilities and decommissioning sites.

  17. HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) v. 1.0 (alpha)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Hecht, Ethan; Reynolds, John T.; Ekoto, Isaac W.; Walkup, Gregory W.

    2014-12-19

    HyRAM is a software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, thermal pressure effects from deflagrations) on people and structures. HyRAM incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of hydrogen release and flame physics. Version 1.0.0.280 can be used to quantify the likelihood and thermal consequences associated with gaseous hydrogen releases from user-defined hydrogen installations.

  18. STOIC: An Assessment of Coupled Model Climatology and Variability in Tropical Ocean Regions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davey, M.K.; Sperber, K.R.; Huddleston, M

    2000-08-30

    The tropics are regions of strong ocean-atmosphere interaction on seasonal and interannual timescales, so a good representation of observed tropical behavior is a desirable objective for coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs). To broaden and update previous assessments (Mechoso et al. 1995, Neelin et al. 1992), two complementary projects were initiated by the CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP): the El Nino Simulation Intercomparison Project (ENSIP, by Mojib Latif) and STOIC (Study of Tropical Oceans In Coupled models). The aim was to compare models against observations to identify common weaknesses and strengths. Results from ENSIP concentrating on the equatorial Pacific have been described by Latif et al. (2000), hereafter ENSIP2000. A detailed report on STOIC is available via anonymous ftp at email.meto.gov.uk/pub/cr/ ''stoic'' and is summarized in Davey et al. (2000). The STOIC analyses extend beyond the equatorial Pacific, to examine behavior in all three tropical ocean regions.

  19. HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) v. 1.0 (alpha)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-12-19

    HyRAM is a software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, thermal pressure effects from deflagrations) on people and structures. HyRAM incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impactmore » of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of hydrogen release and flame physics. Version 1.0.0.280 can be used to quantify the likelihood and thermal consequences associated with gaseous hydrogen releases from user-defined hydrogen installations.« less

  20. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissions project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a client of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  1. Implementation of Localized Corrosion in the Performance Assessment Model for Yucca Mountain

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vivek Jain, S. David Sevougian, Patrick D. Mattie, Kevin G. Mon, and Robert J. Mackinnon

    2006-04-30

    A total system performance assessment (TSPA) model has been developed to analyze the ability of the natural and engineered barriers of the Yucca Mountain repository to isolate nuclear waste over the 10,000-year period following repository closure. The principal features of the engineered barrier system (EBS) are emplacement tunnels (or ''drifts'') containing a two-layer waste package (WP) for waste containment and a titanium drip shield to protect the waste package from seeping water and falling rock, The 20-mm-thick outer shell of the WP is composed of Alloy 22, a highly corrosion-resistant nickel-based alloy. The barrier function of the EBS is to isolate the waste from migrating water. The water and its associated chemical conditions eventually lead to degradation of the waste packages and mobilization of the radionuclides within the packages. There are five possible waste package degradation modes of the Alloy 22: general corrosion, microbially influenced corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, early failure due to manufacturing defects, and localized corrosion. This paper specifically examines the incorporation of the Alloy-22 localized corrosion model into the Yucca Mountain TSPA model, particularly the abstraction and modeling methodology, as well as issues dealing with scaling, spatial variability, uncertainty, and coupling to other sub-models that are part of the total system model.

  2. Economic analysis and assessment of syngas production using a modeling approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Hakkwan; Parajuli, Prem B.; Yu, Fei; Columbus, Eugene P.

    2011-08-10

    Economic analysis and modeling are essential and important issues for the development of current feedstock and process technology for bio-gasification. The objective of this study was to develop an economic model and apply to predict the unit cost of syngas production from a micro-scale bio-gasification facility. An economic model was programmed in C++ computer programming language and developed using a parametric cost approach, which included processes to calculate the total capital costs and the total operating costs. The model used measured economic data from the bio-gasification facility at Mississippi State University. The modeling results showed that the unit cost of syngas production was $1.217 for a 60 Nm-3 h-1 capacity bio-gasifier. The operating cost was the major part of the total production cost. The equipment purchase cost and the labor cost were the largest part of the total capital cost and the total operating cost, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that labor costs rank the top as followed by equipment cost, loan life, feedstock cost, interest rate, utility cost, and waste treatment cost. The unit cost of syngas production increased with the increase of all parameters with exception of loan life. The annual cost regarding equipment, labor, feedstock, waste treatment, and utility cost showed a linear relationship with percent changes, while loan life and annual interest rate showed a non-linear relationship. This study provides the useful information for economic analysis and assessment of the syngas production using a modeling approach.

  3. Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understand from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.

  4. Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu; Calvin, Katherine; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kyle, Page; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall; Davies, Evan

    2016-01-22

    Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economicmore » growth, energy, land, and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater and desalinated water sources —across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in integrated assessment models and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.« less

  5. MODEL-BASED HYDROACOUSTIC BLOCKAGE ASSESSMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPLOSIVE SOURCE DATABASE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matzel, E; Ramirez, A; Harben, P

    2005-07-11

    We are continuing the development of the Hydroacoustic Blockage Assessment Tool (HABAT) which is designed for use by analysts to predict which hydroacoustic monitoring stations can be used in discrimination analysis for any particular event. The research involves two approaches (1) model-based assessment of blockage, and (2) ground-truth data-based assessment of blockage. The tool presents the analyst with a map of the world, and plots raypath blockages from stations to sources. The analyst inputs source locations and blockage criteria, and the tool returns a list of blockage status from all source locations to all hydroacoustic stations. We are currently using the tool in an assessment of blockage criteria for simple direct-path arrivals. Hydroacoustic data, predominantly from earthquake sources, are read in and assessed for blockage at all available stations. Several measures are taken. First, can the event be observed at a station above background noise? Second, can we establish backazimuth from the station to the source. Third, how large is the decibel drop at one station relative to other stations. These observational results are then compared with model estimates to identify the best set of blockage criteria and used to create a set of blockage maps for each station. The model-based estimates are currently limited by the coarse bathymetry of existing databases and by the limitations inherent in the raytrace method. In collaboration with BBN Inc., the Hydroacoustic Coverage Assessment Model (HydroCAM) that generates the blockage files that serve as input to HABAT, is being extended to include high-resolution bathymetry databases in key areas that increase model-based blockage assessment reliability. An important aspect of this capability is to eventually include reflected T-phases where they reliably occur and to identify the associated reflectors. To assess how well any given hydroacoustic discriminant works in separating earthquake and in-water explosion populations it is necessary to have both a database of reference earthquake events and of reference in-water explosive events. Although reference earthquake events are readily available, explosive reference events are not. Consequently, building an in-water explosion reference database requires the compilation of events from many sources spanning a long period of time. We have developed a database of small implosive and explosive reference events from the 2003 Indian Ocean Cruise data. These events were recorded at some or all of the IMS Indian Ocean hydroacoustic stations: Diego Garcia, Cape Leeuwin, and Crozet Island. We have also reviewed many historical large in-water explosions and identified five that have adequate source information and can be positively associated to the hydrophone recordings. The five events are: Cannekin, Longshot, CHASE-3, CHASE-5, and IITRI-1. Of these, the first two are nuclear tests on land but near water. The latter three are in-water conventional explosive events with yields from ten to hundreds of tons TNT equivalent. The objective of this research is to enhance discrimination capabilities for events located in the world's oceans. Two research and development efforts are needed to achieve this: (1) improvement in discrimination algorithms and their joint statistical application to events, and (2) development of an automated and accurate blockage prediction capability that will identify all stations and phases (direct and reflected) from a given event that will have adequate signal to be used in a discrimination analysis. The strategy for improving blockage prediction in the world's oceans is to improve model-based prediction of blockage and to develop a ground-truth database of reference events to assess blockage. Currently, research is focused on the development of a blockage assessment software tool. The tool is envisioned to develop into a sophisticated and unifying package that optimally and automatically assesses both model and data based blockage predictions in all ocean basins, for all NDC stations, and accounting for reflected phases (Pulli et al., 2000). Currently, we have focused our efforts on the Diego Garcia, Cape Leeuwin and Crozet Island hydroacoustic stations in the Indian Ocean.

  6. Assessment of Multi-Scale T/H Codes and Models for DNB CP

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assessment of Multi-Scale Thermal-Hydraulic Codes and Models for DNB Challenge Problem Applications L3.AMA.CP.P8.01 Yixing Sung, Jin Yan, Liping Cao, Vefa N. Kucukboyaci, Emre Tatli Westinghouse Electric Company LLC Mark A. Christon, Jozsef Bakosi Los Alamos National Laboratories Robert K. Salko Oak Ridge National Laboratories Hongbin Zhang Idaho National Laboratory March 31, 2014 CASL-U-2014-0032-000 L3.AMA.CP.P8.01 ii CASL-U-2014-0032-000 REVISION LOG Revision Date Affected Pages Revision

  7. Analysis of Wind Turbine Simulation Models: Assessment of Simplified versus Complete Methodologies: Preprint

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analysis of Wind Turbine Simulation Models: Assessment of Simplified versus Complete Methodologies Preprint A. Honrubia-Escribano, 1 F. Jiménez-Buendía, 2 A. Molina-García, 3 J.A. Fuentes-Moreno, 3 E. Muljadi, 4 and E. Gómez-Lázaro 1 1 University of Castilla-La Mancha 2 Gamesa Innovation & Technology 3 Polytechnic University of Cartagena 4 National Renewable Energy Laboratory To be presented at the ISEF 2015 - XVII International Symposium on Electromagnetic Fields in Mechatronics,

  8. Simplified predictive models for CO2 sequestration performance assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mishra, Srikanta; Ganesh, Priya; Schuetter, Jared; He, Jincong; Jin, Zhaoyang; Durlofsky, Louis J.

    2015-09-30

    CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations is increasingly being considered as a viable strategy for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic sources. In this context, detailed numerical simulation based models are routinely used to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration following CO2 injection into the subsurface. As these models are data and computation intensive, the development of computationally-efficient alternatives to conventional numerical simulators has become an active area of research. Such simplified models can be valuable assets during preliminary CO2 injection project screening, serve as a key element of probabilistic system assessment modeling tools, and assist regulators in quickly evaluating geological storage projects. We present three strategies for the development and validation of simplified modeling approaches for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations: (1) simplified physics-based modeling, (2) statisticallearning based modeling, and (3) reduced-order method based modeling. In the first category, a set of full-physics compositional simulations is used to develop correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of the CO2 fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. Furthermore, the dimensionless average pressure buildup after the onset of boundary effects can be correlated to dimensionless time, CO2 plume footprint, and storativity contrast between the reservoir and caprock. In the second category, statistical “proxy models” are developed using the simulation domain described previously with two approaches: (a) classical Box-Behnken experimental design with a quadratic response surface, and (b) maximin Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a multidimensional kriging metamodel fit. For roughly the same number of simulations, the LHS-based metamodel yields a more robust predictive model, as verified by a k-fold cross-validation approach (with data split into training and test sets) as well by validation with an independent dataset. In the third category, a reduced-order modeling procedure is utilized that combines proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) for reducing problem dimensionality with trajectory-piecewise linearization (TPWL) in order to represent system response at new control settings from a limited number of training runs. Significant savings in computational time are observed with reasonable accuracy from the PODTPWL reduced-order model for both vertical and horizontal well problems – which could be important in the context of history matching, uncertainty quantification and optimization problems. The simplified physics and statistical learning based models are also validated using an uncertainty analysis framework. Reference cumulative distribution functions of key model outcomes (i.e., plume radius and reservoir pressure buildup) generated using a 97-run full-physics simulation are successfully validated against the CDF from 10,000 sample probabilistic simulations using the simplified models. The main contribution of this research project is the development and validation of a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations.

  9. Prototype integration of the joint munitions assessment and planning model with the OSD threat methodology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lynn, R.Y.S.; Bolmarcich, J.J.

    1994-06-01

    The purpose of this Memorandum is to propose a prototype procedure which the Office of Munitions might employ to exercise, in a supportive joint fashion, two of its High Level Conventional Munitions Models, namely, the OSD Threat Methodology and the Joint Munitions Assessment and Planning (JMAP) model. The joint application of JMAP and the OSD Threat Methodology provides a tool to optimize munitions stockpiles. The remainder of this Memorandum comprises five parts. The first is a description of the structure and use of the OSD Threat Methodology. The second is a description of JMAP and its use. The third discusses the concept of the joint application of JMAP and OSD Threat Methodology. The fourth displays sample output of the joint application. The fifth is a summary and epilogue. Finally, three appendices contain details of the formulation, data, and computer code.

  10. Performance of corrosion inhibiting admixtures for structural concrete -- assessment methods and predictive modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yunovich, M.; Thompson, N.G.

    1998-12-31

    During the past fifteen years corrosion inhibiting admixtures (CIAs) have become increasingly popular for protection of reinforced components of highway bridges and other structures from damage induced by chlorides. However, there remains considerable debate about the benefits of CIAs in concrete. A variety of testing methods to assess the performance of CIA have been reported in the literature, ranging from tests in simulated pore solutions to long-term exposures of concrete slabs. The paper reviews the published techniques and recommends the methods which would make up a comprehensive CIA effectiveness testing program. The results of this set of tests would provide the data which can be used to rank the presently commercially available CIA and future candidate formulations utilizing a proposed predictive model. The model is based on relatively short-term laboratory testing and considers several phases of a service life of a structure (corrosion initiation, corrosion propagation without damage, and damage to the structure).

  11. Modeling and Risk Assessment of CO2 Sequestration at the Geologic-basin Scale

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Juanes, Ruben

    2013-11-30

    The overall objective of this proposal was to develop tools for better understanding, modeling and risk assessment of CO2 permanence in geologic formations at the geologic basin scale.

  12. A joint discussion model for assessing safety, health, and environmental risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abbott, R.E.

    1995-12-01

    Industries competing in the global marketplace constantly evaluate potential opportunities for joint ventures and partnerships all over the world. In the petroleum industry, these prospects to explore for and produce oil and gas range geographically from densely populated areas, to offshore, to the remote reaches of a tropical rainforest. There are numerous risks associated with these prospects which must be assessed so that the best investments are selected. The risk categories include: commercial, technical geological, political and safety, health and environmental (SHE). SHE risks are sometimes the most difficult to assess within businesses because they do not allow an easy evaluation of economic impact or other quantification. Additionally, these issues are often not familiar to business development personnel and consequently are not evaluated on an equal basis with other risk criteria. This paper presents a joint discussion model that facilitates the communication between SHE personnel and other members of the multi-disciplinary teams responsible for evaluating and selecting the most attractive prospects. This tool uses a simple approach in contrast to the many quantitative decision-making software products currently available. It provides a set of questions related to relevant SHE issues, establishes a way to approximate the level of uncertainty in the answers, and sums the results so that a comparison among prospects is possible. In the end, a more rigorous, consistent SHE assessment of all prospects is made, and the rationale for each decision is archived so that improvement in the process over time is made easier.

  13. Assessing the toxic effects of ethylene glycol ethers using Quantitative Structure Toxicity Relationship models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ruiz, Patricia; Mumtaz, Moiz; Gombar, Vijay

    2011-07-15

    Experimental determination of toxicity profiles consumes a great deal of time, money, and other resources. Consequently, businesses, societies, and regulators strive for reliable alternatives such as Quantitative Structure Toxicity Relationship (QSTR) models to fill gaps in toxicity profiles of compounds of concern to human health. The use of glycol ethers and their health effects have recently attracted the attention of international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO). The board members of Concise International Chemical Assessment Documents (CICAD) recently identified inadequate testing as well as gaps in toxicity profiles of ethylene glycol mono-n-alkyl ethers (EGEs). The CICAD board requested the ATSDR Computational Toxicology and Methods Development Laboratory to conduct QSTR assessments of certain specific toxicity endpoints for these chemicals. In order to evaluate the potential health effects of EGEs, CICAD proposed a critical QSTR analysis of the mutagenicity, carcinogenicity, and developmental effects of EGEs and other selected chemicals. We report here results of the application of QSTRs to assess rodent carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, and developmental toxicity of four EGEs: 2-methoxyethanol, 2-ethoxyethanol, 2-propoxyethanol, and 2-butoxyethanol and their metabolites. Neither mutagenicity nor carcinogenicity is indicated for the parent compounds, but these compounds are predicted to be developmental toxicants. The predicted toxicity effects were subjected to reverse QSTR (rQSTR) analysis to identify structural attributes that may be the main drivers of the developmental toxicity potential of these compounds.

  14. Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: Modeling Individual Steps of a Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

    2004-06-01

    The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated risks to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems modeling software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental models for similar risk assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a risk assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate and transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.

  15. Numerical Modeling of the Lake Mary Road Bridge for Foundation Reuse Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sitek, M. A.; Bojanowski, C.; Lottes, S. A.

    2015-04-01

    This project uses numerical techniques to assess the structural integrity and capacity of the bridge foundations and, as a result, reduces the risk associated with reusing the same foundation for a new superstructure. Nondestructive test methods of different types were used in combination with the numerical modeling and analysis. The onsite tests included visual inspection, tomography, ground penetrating radar, drilling boreholes and coreholes, and the laboratory tests on recovered samples. The results were utilized to identify the current geometry of the structure with foundation, including the hidden geometry of the abutments and piers, and soil and foundation material properties. This data was used to build the numerical models and run computational analyses on a high performance computer cluster to assess the structural integrity of the bridge and foundations including the suitability of the foundation for reuse with a new superstructure and traffic that will increase the load on the foundations. Computational analysis is more cost-effective and gives an advantage of getting more detailed knowledge about the structural response. It also enables to go beyond non-destructive testing and find the failure conditions without destroying the structure under consideration.

  16. CONTAIN code analyses of direct containment heating (DCH) experiments: Model assessment and phenomenological interpretation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, D.C.; Griffith, R.O.; Tadios, E.L.; Washington, K.E.

    1995-05-12

    Models for direct containment heating (DCH) in the CONTAIN code for severe accident analysis have been reviewed and a standard input prescription for their use has been defined. The code has been exercised against a large subset of the available DCH data base. Generally good agreement with the experimental results for containment pressurization ({Delta}P) and hydrogen generation has been obtained. Extensive sensitivity studies have been performed which permit assessment of many of the strengths and weaknesses of specific model features. These include models for debris transport and trapping, DCH heat transfer and chemistry, atmosphere-structure heat transfer, interactions between nonairborne debris and blowdown steam, potential effects of debris-water interactions, and hydrogen combustion under DCH conditions. Containment compartmentalization is an important DCH mitigator in the calculations, in agreement with experimental results. The CONTAIN model includes partially parametric treatments for some processes that are not well understood. The importance of the associated uncertainties depends upon the details of the DCH scenario being analyzed. Recommended sensitivity studies are summarized that allow the user to obtain a reasonable estimate of the uncertainties in the calculated results.

  17. Energy Performance Assessment of Radiant Cooling System through Modeling and Calibration at Component Level

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khan, Yasin; Mathur, Jyotirmay; Bhandari, Mahabir S

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes a case study of an information technology office building with a radiant cooling system and a conventional variable air volume (VAV) system installed side by side so that performancecan be compared. First, a 3D model of the building involving architecture, occupancy, and HVAC operation was developed in EnergyPlus, a simulation tool. Second, a different calibration methodology was applied to develop the base case for assessing the energy saving potential. This paper details the calibration of the whole building energy model to the component level, including lighting, equipment, and HVAC components such as chillers, pumps, cooling towers, fans, etc. Also a new methodology for the systematic selection of influence parameter has been developed for the calibration of a simulated model which requires large time for the execution. The error at the whole building level [measured in mean bias error (MBE)] is 0.2%, and the coefficient of variation of root mean square error (CvRMSE) is 3.2%. The total errors in HVAC at the hourly are MBE = 8.7% and CvRMSE = 23.9%, which meet the criteria of ASHRAE 14 (2002) for hourly calibration. Different suggestions have been pointed out to generalize the energy saving of radiant cooling system through the existing building system. So a base case model was developed by using the calibrated model for quantifying the energy saving potential of the radiant cooling system. It was found that a base case radiant cooling system integrated with DOAS can save 28% energy compared with the conventional VAV system.

  18. SOFTWARE QUALITY ASSURANCE FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT MODELS AT DOE'S SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hunter, C

    2007-12-17

    The Savannah River National Laboratory's (SRNL) Atmospheric Technologies Group develops, maintains, and operates computer-based software applications for use in emergency response consequence assessment at DOE's Savannah River Site. These applications range from straightforward, stand-alone Gaussian dispersion models run with simple meteorological input to complex computational software systems with supporting scripts that simulate highly dynamic atmospheric processes. A software quality assurance program has been developed to ensure appropriate lifecycle management of these software applications. This program was designed to meet fully the overall structure and intent of SRNL's institutional software QA programs, yet remain sufficiently practical to achieve the necessary level of control in a cost-effective manner. A general overview of this program is described.

  19. Extended defense systems :I. adversary-defender modeling grammar for vulnerability analysis and threat assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merkle, Peter Benedict

    2006-03-01

    Vulnerability analysis and threat assessment require systematic treatments of adversary and defender characteristics. This work addresses the need for a formal grammar for the modeling and analysis of adversary and defender engagements of interest to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Analytical methods treating both linguistic and numerical information should ensure that neither aspect has disproportionate influence on assessment outcomes. The adversary-defender modeling (ADM) grammar employs classical set theory and notation. It is designed to incorporate contributions from subject matter experts in all relevant disciplines, without bias. The Attack Scenario Space U{sub S} is the set universe of all scenarios possible under physical laws. An attack scenario is a postulated event consisting of the active engagement of at least one adversary with at least one defended target. Target Information Space I{sub S} is the universe of information about targets and defenders. Adversary and defender groups are described by their respective Character super-sets, (A){sub P} and (D){sub F}. Each super-set contains six elements: Objectives, Knowledge, Veracity, Plans, Resources, and Skills. The Objectives are the desired end-state outcomes. Knowledge is comprised of empirical and theoretical a priori knowledge and emergent knowledge (learned during an attack), while Veracity is the correspondence of Knowledge with fact or outcome. Plans are ordered activity-task sequences (tuples) with logical contingencies. Resources are the a priori and opportunistic physical assets and intangible attributes applied to the execution of associated Plans elements. Skills for both adversary and defender include the assumed general and task competencies for the associated plan set, the realized value of competence in execution or exercise, and the opponent's planning assumption of the task competence.

  20. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN APPLICATIONS FOR MODELING AND ASSESSING CARBON DIOXIDE SEQUESTRATION IN SALINE AQUIFERS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, John

    2014-08-31

    This project was a computer modeling effort to couple reservoir simulation and ED/RSM using Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Analysis, and Optimization Methods, to assess geologic, geochemical, geomechanical, and rock-fluid effects and factors on CO2 injectivity, capacity, and plume migration. The project objective was to develop proxy models to simplify the highly complex coupled geochemical and geomechanical models in the utilization and storage of CO2 in the subsurface. The goals were to investigate and prove the feasibility of the ED/RSM processes and engineering development, and bridge the gaps regarding the uncertainty and unknowns of the many geochemical and geomechanical interacting parameters in the development and operation of anthropogenic CO2 sequestration and storage sites. The bottleneck in this workflow is the high computational effort of reactive transport simulation models and large number of input variables to optimize with ED/RSM techniques. The project was not to develop the reactive transport, geomechanical, or ED/RSM software, but was to use what was commercially and/or publically available as a proof of concept to generate proxy or surrogate models. A detailed geologic and petrographic mineral assemblage and geologic structure of the doubly plunging anticline was defined using the USDOE RMOTC formations of interest data (e.g., Lower Sundance, Crow Mountain, Alcova Limestone, and Red Peak). The assemblage of 23 minerals was primarily developed from literature data and petrophysical (well log) analysis. The assemblage and structure was input into a commercial reactive transport simulator to predict the effects of CO2 injection and complex reactions with the reservoir rock. Significant impediments were encountered during the execution phase of the project. The only known commercial reactive transport simulator was incapable of simulating complex geochemistry modeled in this project. Significant effort and project funding was expended to determine the limitations of both the commercial simulator and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) R&D simulator, TOUGHREACT available to the project. A simplified layer cake model approximating the volume of the RMOTC targeted reservoirs was defined with 1-3 minerals eventually modeled with limited success. Modeling reactive transport in porous media requires significant computational power. In this project, up to 24 processors were used to model a limited mineral set of 1-3 minerals. In addition, geomechanical aspects of injecting CO2 into closed, semi-open, and open systems in various well completion methods was simulated. Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) as a storage method was not modeled. A robust and stable simulation dataset or base case was developed and used to create a master dataset with embedded instructions for input to the ED/RSM software. Little success was achieved toward the objective of the project using the commercial simulator or the LBNL simulator versions available during the time of this project. Several hundred realizations were run with the commercial simulator and ED/RSM software, most having convergence problems and terminating prematurely. A proxy model for full field CO2 injection sequestration utilization and storage was not capable of being developed with software available for this project. Though the chemistry is reasonably known and understood, based on the amount of effort and huge computational time required, predicting CO2 sequestration storage capacity in geologic formations to within the program goals of ±30% proved unsuccessful.

  1. Recommended Method To Account For Daughter Ingrowth For The Portsmouth On-Site Waste Disposal Facility Performance Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phifer, Mark A.; Smith, Frank G. III

    2013-06-21

    A 3-D STOMP model has been developed for the Portsmouth On-Site Waste Disposal Facility (OSWDF) at Site D as outlined in Appendix K of FBP 2013. This model projects the flow and transport of the following radionuclides to various points of assessments: Tc-99, U-234, U-235, U-236, U-238, Am-241, Np-237, Pu-238, Pu-239, Pu-240, Th-228, and Th-230. The model includes the radioactive decay of these parents, but does not include the associated daughter ingrowth because the STOMP model does not have the capability to model daughter ingrowth. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) provides herein a recommended method to account for daughter ingrowth in association with the Portsmouth OSWDF Performance Assessment (PA) modeling.

  2. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  3. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 4: The DBEDT DSM assessment model user`s manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DBEDT DSM Assessment Model (DSAM) is a spreadsheet model developed in Quattro Pro for Windows that is based on the integration of the DBEDT energy forecasting model, ENERGY 2020, with the output from the building energy use simulation model, DOE-2. DOE-2 provides DSM impact estimates for both energy and peak demand. The ``User`s Guide`` is designed to assist DBEDT staff in the operation of DSAM. Supporting information on model structure and data inputs are provided in Volumes 2 and 3 of the Final Report. DSAM is designed to provide DBEDT estimates of the potential DSM resource for each county in Hawaii by measure, program, sector, year, and levelized cost category. The results are provided for gas and electric and for both energy and peak demand. There are two main portions of DSAM, the residential sector and the commercial sector. The basic underlying logic for both sectors are the same. However, there are some modeling differences between the two sectors. The differences are primarily the result of (1) the more complex nature of the commercial sector, (2) memory limitations within Quattro Pro, and (3) the fact that the commercial sector portion of the model was written four months after the residential sector portion. The structure for both sectors essentially consists of a series of input spreadsheets, the portion of the model where the calculations are performed, and a series of output spreadsheets. The output spreadsheets contain both detailed and summary tables and graphs.

  4. Hepatocyte-based in vitro model for assessment of drug-induced cholestasis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chatterjee, Sagnik; Richert, Lysiane; Augustijns, Patrick; Annaert, Pieter

    2014-01-01

    Early detection of drug-induced cholestasis remains a challenge during drug development. We have developed and validated a biorelevant sandwich-cultured hepatocytes- (SCH) based model that can identify compounds causing cholestasis by altering bile acid disposition. Human and rat SCH were exposed (2448 h) to known cholestatic and/or hepatotoxic compounds, in the presence or in the absence of a concentrated mixture of bile acids (BAs). Urea assay was used to assess (compromised) hepatocyte functionality at the end of the incubations. The cholestatic potential of the compounds was expressed by calculating a drug-induced cholestasis index (DICI), reflecting the relative residual urea formation by hepatocytes co-incubated with BAs and test compound as compared to hepatocytes treated with test compound alone. Compounds with clinical reports of cholestasis, including cyclosporin A, troglitazone, chlorpromazine, bosentan, ticlopidine, ritonavir, and midecamycin showed enhanced toxicity in the presence of BAs (DICI ? 0.8) for at least one of the tested concentrations. In contrast, the in vitro toxicity of compounds causing hepatotoxicity by other mechanisms (including diclofenac, valproic acid, amiodarone and acetaminophen), remained unchanged in the presence of BAs. A safety margin (SM) for drug-induced cholestasis was calculated as the ratio of lowest in vitro concentration for which was DICI ? 0.8, to the reported mean peak therapeutic plasma concentration. SM values obtained in human SCH correlated well with reported % incidence of clinical drug-induced cholestasis, while no correlation was observed in rat SCH. This in vitro model enables early identification of drug candidates causing cholestasis by disturbed BA handling. - Highlights: Novel in vitro assay to detect drug-induced cholestasis Rat and human sandwich-cultured hepatocytes (SCH) as in vitro models Cholestatic compounds sensitize SCH to toxic effects of accumulating bile acids Drug-induced cholestasis index (DICI) as measure of a drug's cholestatic signature In vitro findings correlate well with clinical reports on cholestasis.

  5. Assessment of CCFL model of RELAP5/MOD3 against simple vertical tubes and rod bundle tests. International Agreement Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cho, S.; Arne, N.; Chung, B.D.; Kim, H.J.

    1993-06-01

    The CCFL model used in RELAP5/MOD3 version 5m5 has been assessed against simple vertical tubes and bundle tests performed at a facility of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. The effect of changes in tube diameter and nodalization of tube section were investigated. The roles of interfacial drags on the flooding characteristics are discussed. Differences between the calculation and the experiment are also discussed. A comparison between model assessment results and the test data showed that the calculated value lay well on the experimental flooding curve specified by user, but the pressure jump before onset of flooding was not calculated.

  6. Internal cycle modeling and environmental assessment of multiple cycle consumer products

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsiliyannis, C.A.

    2012-01-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Dynamic flow models are presented for remanufactured, reused or recycled products. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Early loss and stochastic return are included for fast and slow cycling products. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The reuse-to-input flow ratio (Internal Cycle Factor, ICF) is determined. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The cycle rate, which is increasing with the ICF, monitors eco-performance. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Early internal cycle losses diminish the ICF, the cycle rate and performance. - Abstract: Dynamic annual flow models incorporating consumer discard and usage loss and featuring deterministic and stochastic end-of-cycle (EOC) return by the consumer are developed for reused or remanufactured products (multiple cycle products, MCPs), including fast and slow cycling, short and long-lived products. It is shown that internal flows (reuse and overall consumption) increase proportionally to the dimensionless internal cycle factor (ICF) which is related to environmental impact reduction factors. The combined reuse/recycle (or cycle) rate is shown capable for shortcut, albeit effective, monitoring of environmental performance in terms of waste production, virgin material extraction and manufacturing impacts of all MCPs, a task, which physical variables (lifetime, cycling frequency, mean or total number of return trips) and conventional rates, via which environmental policy has been officially implemented (e.g. recycling rate) cannot accomplish. The cycle rate is shown to be an increasing (hyperbolic) function of ICF. The impact of the stochastic EOC return characteristics on total reuse and consumption flows, as well as on eco-performance, is assessed: symmetric EOC return has a small, positive effect on performance compared to deterministic, while early shifted EOC return is more beneficial. In order to be efficient, environmental policy should set higher minimum reuse targets for higher trippage MCPs. The results may serve for monitoring, flow accounting and comparative eco-assessment of MCPs. They may be useful in identifying reachable and efficient reuse/recycle targets for consumer products and in planning return via appropriate labelling and digital coding for enhancing environmental performance, while satisfying consumer demand.

  7. Modeling and comparative assessment of municipal solid waste gasification for energy production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arafat, Hassan A. Jijakli, Kenan

    2013-08-15

    Highlights: Study developed a methodology for the evaluation of gasification for MSW treatment. Study was conducted comparatively for USA, UAE, and Thailand. Study applies a thermodynamic model (Gibbs free energy minimization) using the Gasify software. The energy efficiency of the process and the compatibility with different waste streams was studied. - Abstract: Gasification is the thermochemical conversion of organic feedstocks mainly into combustible syngas (CO and H{sub 2}) along with other constituents. It has been widely used to convert coal into gaseous energy carriers but only has been recently looked at as a process for producing energy from biomass. This study explores the potential of gasification for energy production and treatment of municipal solid waste (MSW). It relies on adapting the theory governing the chemistry and kinetics of the gasification process to the use of MSW as a feedstock to the process. It also relies on an equilibrium kinetics and thermodynamics solver tool (Gasify) in the process of modeling gasification of MSW. The effect of process temperature variation on gasifying MSW was explored and the results were compared to incineration as an alternative to gasification of MSW. Also, the assessment was performed comparatively for gasification of MSW in the United Arab Emirates, USA, and Thailand, presenting a spectrum of socioeconomic settings with varying MSW compositions in order to explore the effect of MSW composition variance on the products of gasification. All in all, this study provides an insight into the potential of gasification for the treatment of MSW and as a waste to energy alternative to incineration.

  8. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  9. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Schlicher, Bob G

    2015-01-01

    There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated the cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.

  10. Performance Assessment Transport Modeling of Uranium at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site at the Nevada National Security Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NSTec Radioactive Waste

    2010-10-12

    Following is a brief summary of the assumptions that are pertinent to the radioactive isotope transport in the GoldSim Performance Assessment model of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, with special emphasis on the water-phase reactive transport of uranium, which includes depleted uranium products.

  11. Preliminary Review of Models, Assumptions, and Key Data used in Performance Assessments and Composite Analysis at the Idaho National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arthur S. Rood; Swen O. Magnuson

    2009-07-01

    This document is in response to a request by Ming Zhu, DOE-EM to provide a preliminary review of existing models and data used in completed or soon to be completed Performance Assessments and Composite Analyses (PA/CA) documents, to identify codes, methodologies, main assumptions, and key data sets used.

  12. Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the Cement Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sathaye, J.; Xu, T.; Galitsky, C.

    2010-08-15

    Adoption of efficient end-use technologies is one of the key measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. How to effectively analyze and manage the costs associated with GHG reductions becomes extremely important for the industry and policy makers around the world. Energy-climate (EC) models are often used for analyzing the costs of reducing GHG emissions for various emission-reduction measures, because an accurate estimation of these costs is critical for identifying and choosing optimal emission reduction measures, and for developing related policy options to accelerate market adoption and technology implementation. However, accuracies of assessing of GHG-emission reduction costs by taking into account the adoption of energy efficiency technologies will depend on how well these end-use technologies are represented in integrated assessment models (IAM) and other energy-climate models.

  13. An assessment of possible climate change in the Australian region based on intercomparison of general circulation modeling results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whetton, P.H.; Pittock, A.B.; Haylock, M.R. ); Rayner, P.J. )

    1994-03-01

    To assist in estimating likely future climate change in the Australian region, the authors examine the results of four different general circulation modeling experiments run to assess the equilibrium impact of doubling greenhouse gases. The results examined were the most recent available at the time of study from various research centers in North America and Europe, as well as those of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The approach used is, first, to assess the quality of the control (1 x CO[sub 2]) simulations from each of the models of mean sea level (MSL) pressure and precipitation in the Australian region by comparing these with the corresponding observed patterns; and, second, to then analyze the 2 x CO[sub 2] results of only those model experiments with the best control simulations. Of the models examined two are chosen on the basis of their simulation of current climate in the region: the CSIRO four-level model (CSIRO4) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model. For conditions of equivalent doubling of CO[sub 2], both models show substantial increases in surface air temperature of around 4[degrees]-6[degrees] inland and 2[degrees]-4[degrees]C in coastal regions. Both models show decreased MSL pressure over the Australian continent and increases in rainfall over northern, central, and eastern Australia, particularly in the summer half of the year. The CSIRO4 model, but not the UKMO model, also shows increased pressure to the south of the continent and decreased winter rainfall in southwest and southern Australia. Generally, field significance tests show the pattern and magnitude of the changes to be significant of CSIRO4 (for which the necessary monthly simulated data were available). 42 refs., 20 figs., 5 tabs.

  14. Statistical model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) in clinical CT systems: Experimental assessment of noise performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Ke; Tang, Jie; Chen, Guang-Hong

    2014-04-15

    Purpose: To reduce radiation dose in CT imaging, the statistical model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) method has been introduced for clinical use. Based on the principle of MBIR and its nonlinear nature, the noise performance of MBIR is expected to be different from that of the well-understood filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction method. The purpose of this work is to experimentally assess the unique noise characteristics of MBIR using a state-of-the-art clinical CT system. Methods: Three physical phantoms, including a water cylinder and two pediatric head phantoms, were scanned in axial scanning mode using a 64-slice CT scanner (Discovery CT750 HD, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, WI) at seven different mAs levels (5, 12.5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 300). At each mAs level, each phantom was repeatedly scanned 50 times to generate an image ensemble for noise analysis. Both the FBP method with a standard kernel and the MBIR method (Veo{sup }, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, WI) were used for CT image reconstruction. Three-dimensional (3D) noise power spectrum (NPS), two-dimensional (2D) NPS, and zero-dimensional NPS (noise variance) were assessed both globally and locally. Noise magnitude, noise spatial correlation, noise spatial uniformity and their dose dependence were examined for the two reconstruction methods. Results: (1) At each dose level and at each frequency, the magnitude of the NPS of MBIR was smaller than that of FBP. (2) While the shape of the NPS of FBP was dose-independent, the shape of the NPS of MBIR was strongly dose-dependent; lower dose lead to a redder NPS with a lower mean frequency value. (3) The noise standard deviation (?) of MBIR and dose were found to be related through a power law of ????(dose){sup ??} with the component ? ? 0.25, which violated the classical ????(dose){sup ?0.5} power law in FBP. (4) With MBIR, noise reduction was most prominent for thin image slices. (5) MBIR lead to better noise spatial uniformity when compared with FBP. (6) A composite image generated from two MBIR images acquired at two different dose levels (D1 and D2) demonstrated lower noise than that of an image acquired at a dose level of D1+D2. Conclusions: The noise characteristics of the MBIR method are significantly different from those of the FBP method. The well known tradeoff relationship between CT image noise and radiation dose has been modified by MBIR to establish a more gradual dependence of noise on dose. Additionally, some other CT noise properties that had been well understood based on the linear system theory have also been altered by MBIR. Clinical CT scan protocols that had been optimized based on the classical CT noise properties need to be carefully re-evaluated for systems equipped with MBIR in order to maximize the method's potential clinical benefits in dose reduction and/or in CT image quality improvement.

  15. Developing an Integrated Model Framework for the Assessment of Sustainable Agricultural Residue Removal Limits for Bioenergy Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David Muth, Jr.; Jared Abodeely; Richard Nelson; Douglas McCorkle; Joshua Koch; Kenneth Bryden

    2011-08-01

    Agricultural residues have significant potential as a feedstock for bioenergy production, but removing these residues can have negative impacts on soil health. Models and datasets that can support decisions about sustainable agricultural residue removal are available; however, no tools currently exist capable of simultaneously addressing all environmental factors that can limit availability of residue. The VE-Suite model integration framework has been used to couple a set of environmental process models to support agricultural residue removal decisions. The RUSLE2, WEPS, and Soil Conditioning Index models have been integrated. A disparate set of databases providing the soils, climate, and management practice data required to run these models have also been integrated. The integrated system has been demonstrated for two example cases. First, an assessment using high spatial fidelity crop yield data has been run for a single farm. This analysis shows the significant variance in sustainably accessible residue across a single farm and crop year. A second example is an aggregate assessment of agricultural residues available in the state of Iowa. This implementation of the integrated systems model demonstrates the capability to run a vast range of scenarios required to represent a large geographic region.

  16. Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walker, Stuart A.

    2013-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance and other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)

  17. MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment Context and Overview

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  18. Modifying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to Simulate Cropland Carbon Flux: Model Development and Initial Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Arnold, Jeffrey; Williams, Jimmy R.; Srinivasan, Raghavan

    2013-10-01

    Climate change is one of the most compelling modern issues and has important implications for almost every aspect of natural and human systems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied worldwide to support sustainable land and water management in a changing climate. However, the inadequacies of the existing carbon algorithm in SWAT limit its application in assessing impacts of human activities on CO2 emission, one important source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that traps heat in the earth system and results in global warming. In this research, we incorporate a revised version of the CENTURY carbon model into SWAT to describe dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM)- residue and simulate land-atmosphere carbon exchange.

  19. The potential use of Chernobyl fallout data to test and evaluate the predictions of environmental radiological assessment models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richmond, C.R.; Hoffman, F.O.; Blaylock, B.G.; Eckerman, K.F.; Lesslie, P.A.; Miller, C.W.; Ng, Y.C.; Till, J.E.

    1988-06-01

    The objectives of the Model Validation Committee were to collaborate with US and foreign scientists to collect, manage, and evaluate data for identifying critical research issues and data needs to support an integrated assessment of the Chernobyl nuclear accident; test environmental transport, human dosimetric, and health effects models against measured data to determine their efficacy in guiding decisions on protective actions and in estimating exposures to populations and individuals following a nuclear accident; and apply Chernobyl data to quantifications of key processes governing the environmental transport, fate and effects of radionuclides and other trace substances. 55 refs.

  20. Assessment of Dissolved Oxygen Mitigation at Hydropower Dams Using an Integrated Hydrodynamic/Water Quality/Fish Growth Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bevelhimer, Mark S; Coutant, Charles C

    2006-07-01

    Dissolved oxygen (DO) in rivers is a common environmental problem associated with hydropower projects. Approximately 40% of all FERC-licensed projects have requirements to monitor and/or mitigate downstream DO conditions. Most forms of mitigation for increasing DO in dam tailwaters are fairly expensive. One area of research of the Department of Energy's Hydropower Program is the development of advanced turbines that improve downstream water quality and have other environmental benefits. There is great interest in being able to predict the benefits of these modifications prior to committing to the cost of new equipment. In the case of turbine replacement or modification, there is a need for methods that allow us to accurately extrapolate the benefits derived from one or two turbines with better design to the replacement or modification of all turbines at a site. The main objective of our study was to demonstrate a modeling approach that integrates the effects of flow and water quality dynamics with fish bioenergetics to predict DO mitigation effectiveness over long river segments downstream of hydropower dams. We were particularly interested in demonstrating the incremental value of including a fish growth model as a measure of biological response. The models applied are a suite of tools (RMS4 modeling system) originally developed by the Tennessee Valley Authority for simulating hydrodynamics (ADYN model), water quality (RQUAL model), and fish growth (FISH model) as influenced by DO, temperature, and available food base. We parameterized a model for a 26-mile reach of the Caney Fork River (Tennessee) below Center Hill Dam to assess how improvements in DO at the dam discharge would affect water quality and fish growth throughout the river. We simulated different types of mitigation (i.e., at the turbine and in the reservoir forebay) and different levels of improvement. The model application successfully demonstrates how a modeling approach like this one can be used to assess whether a prescribed mitigation is likely to meet intended objectives from both a water quality and a biological resource perspective. These techniques can be used to assess the tradeoffs between hydropower operations, power generation, and environmental quality.

  1. Assessment of Fluctuating Reservoir Elevations Using Hydraulic Models and Impacts to Larval Pacific Lamprey Rearing Habitat in the Bonneville Pool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mueller, Robert P.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Perkins, William A.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2015-02-24

    This report presents the results of a modeling assessment of likely lamprey larval habitat that may be impacted by dewatering of the major tributary delta regions in the Bonneville Pool of the Columbia River. This assessment was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (CENWP). The goal of the study was to provide baseline data about how the regions of interest would potentially be impacted at three river flows (10, 50, and 90 percent exceedance flow) for four different forebay elevations at Bonneville Dam. Impacts of unsteady flows at The Dalles Dam and changing forebay elevation at Bonneville Dam for a 2-week period were also assessed. The area of dewatered regions was calculated by importing modeled data outputs into a GIS and then calculating the change in inundated area near tributary deltas for the four Bonneville forebay surface elevations. From the modeled output we determined that the overall change in area is less sensitive to elevations changes during higher river discharges. Changing the forebay elevation at Bonneville and the resulting impact to total dewatered regions was greater at the lowest modeled river flow (97 kcfs) and showed the greatest variation at the White Salmon/Hood River delta regions followed by the Wind, Klickitat and the Little White Salmon rivers. To understand how inundation might change on a daily and hourly basis. Unsteady flow models were run for a 2-week period in 2002 and compared to 2014. The water surface elevation in the upstream pool closely follows that of the Bonneville Dam forebay with rapid changes of 1 to 2-ft possible. The data shows that 2.5-ft variation in water surface elevation occurred during this period in 2002 and a 3.7-ft change occurred in 2014. The duration of these changes were highly variable and generally did not stay constant for more than a 5-hr period.

  2. SIMPLIFIED PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR CO₂ SEQUESTRATION PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT RESEARCH TOPICAL REPORT ON TASK #3 STATISTICAL LEARNING BASED MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mishra, Srikanta; Schuetter, Jared

    2014-11-01

    We compare two approaches for building a statistical proxy model (metamodel) for CO₂ geologic sequestration from the results of full-physics compositional simulations. The first approach involves a classical Box-Behnken or Augmented Pairs experimental design with a quadratic polynomial response surface. The second approach used a space-filling maxmin Latin Hypercube sampling or maximum entropy design with the choice of five different meta-modeling techniques: quadratic polynomial, kriging with constant and quadratic trend terms, multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) and additivity and variance stabilization (AVAS). Simulations results for CO₂ injection into a reservoir-caprock system with 9 design variables (and 97 samples) were used to generate the data for developing the proxy models. The fitted models were validated with using an independent data set and a cross-validation approach for three different performance metrics: total storage efficiency, CO₂ plume radius and average reservoir pressure. The Box-Behnken–quadratic polynomial metamodel performed the best, followed closely by the maximin LHS–kriging metamodel.

  3. A multi-objective programming model for assessment the GHG emissions in MSW management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mavrotas, George; Skoulaxinou, Sotiria; Gakis, Nikos; Katsouros, Vassilis; Georgopoulou, Elena

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: The multi-objective multi-period optimization model. The solution approach for the generation of the Pareto front with mathematical programming. The very detailed description of the model (decision variables, parameters, equations). The use of IPCC 2006 guidelines for landfill emissions (first order decay model) in the mathematical programming formulation. - Abstract: In this study a multi-objective mathematical programming model is developed for taking into account GHG emissions for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management. Mathematical programming models are often used for structure, design and operational optimization of various systems (energy, supply chain, processes, etc.). The last twenty years they are used all the more often in Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management in order to provide optimal solutions with the cost objective being the usual driver of the optimization. In our work we consider the GHG emissions as an additional criterion, aiming at a multi-objective approach. The Pareto front (Cost vs. GHG emissions) of the system is generated using an appropriate multi-objective method. This information is essential to the decision maker because he can explore the trade-offs in the Pareto curve and select his most preferred among the Pareto optimal solutions. In the present work a detailed multi-objective, multi-period mathematical programming model is developed in order to describe the waste management problem. Apart from the bi-objective approach, the major innovations of the model are (1) the detailed modeling considering 34 materials and 42 technologies, (2) the detailed calculation of the energy content of the various streams based on the detailed material balances, and (3) the incorporation of the IPCC guidelines for the CH{sub 4} generated in the landfills (first order decay model). The equations of the model are described in full detail. Finally, the whole approach is illustrated with a case study referring to the application of the model in a Greek region.

  4. Development of a Hydrodynamic Model for Skagit River Estuary for Estuarine Restoration Feasibility Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Liu, Hedong; Khangaonkar, Tarang P.

    2006-08-03

    The Skagit River is the largest river in the Puget Sound estuarine system. It discharges about 39% of total sediment and more than 20% of freshwater into Puget Sound. The Skagit River delta provides rich estuarine and freshwater habitats for salmon and many other wildlife species. Over the past 150 years, economic development in the Skagit River delta has resulted in significant losses of wildlife habitat, particularly due to construction of dikes. Diked portion of the delta is known as Fir Island where irrigation practices for agriculture land over the last century has resulted in land subsidence. This has also caused reduced efficiency of drainage network and impeded fish passages through the area. In this study, a three-dimensional tidal circulation model was developed for the Skagit River delta to assist estuarine restoration in the Fir Island area. The hydrodynamic model used in the study is the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The hydrodynamic model was calibrated using field data collected from the study area specifically for the model development. Wetting and drying processes in the estuarine delta are simulated in the hydrodynamic model. The calibrated model was applied to simulate different restoration alternatives and provide guidance for estuarine restoration and management. Specifically, the model was used to help select and design configurations that would improve the supply of sediment and freshwater to the mudflats and tidal marsh areas outside of diked regions and then improve the estuarine habitats for salmon migration.

  5. An Update of the Analytical Groundwater Modeling to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Afton Solar Energy Zone

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Quinn, John J.; Greer, Christopher B.; Carr, Adrianne E.

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to update a one-dimensional analytical groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal in support of utility-scale solar energy development at the Afton Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program. This report describes the modeling for assessing the drawdown associated with SEZ groundwater pumping rates for a 20-year duration considering three categories of water demand (high, medium, and low) based on technology-specific considerations. The 2012 modeling effort published in the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Solar Energy Development in Six Southwestern States (Solar PEIS; BLM and DOE 2012) has been refined based on additional information described below in an expanded hydrogeologic discussion.

  6. Analysis of Wind Turbine Simulation Models: Assessment of Simplified versus Complete Methodologies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Honrubia-Escribano, A.; Jimenez-Buendia, F.; Molina-Garcia, A.; Fuentes-Moreno, J. A.; Muljadi, Eduard; Gomez-Lazaro, E.

    2015-09-14

    This paper presents the current status of simplified wind turbine models used for power system stability analysis. This work is based on the ongoing work being developed in IEC 61400-27. This international standard, for which a technical committee was convened in October 2009, is focused on defining generic (also known as simplified) simulation models for both wind turbines and wind power plants. The results of the paper provide an improved understanding of the usability of generic models to conduct power system simulations.

  7. Description and assessment of structural and temperature models in the FRAP-T6 code. [PWR; BWR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siefken, L.J.

    1983-01-01

    The FRAP-T6 code was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) for the purpose of calculating the transient performance of light water reactor fuel rods during reactor transients ranging from mild operational transients to severe hypothetical loss-of-coolant accidents. An important application of the FRAP-T6 code is to calculate the structural performance of fuel rod cladding. The capabilities of the FRAP-T6 code are assessed by comparisons of code calculations with the measurements of several hundred in-pile experiments on fuel rods. The results of the assessments show that the code accurately and efficiently models the structural and thermal response of fuel rods.

  8. A new analytic-adaptive model for EGS assessment, development and management support

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will develop an in depth model of EGS systems that will allow engineers, practitioners, and researchers to more accurately predict how new fluid technologies would work in a reservoir.

  9. A Prototype Performance Assessment Model for Generic Deep Borehole Repository for High-Level Nuclear Waste - 12132

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Joon H.; Arnold, Bill W.; Swift, Peter N.; Hadgu, Teklu; Freeze, Geoff; Wang, Yifeng

    2012-07-01

    A deep borehole repository is one of the four geologic disposal system options currently under study by the U.S. DOE to support the development of a long-term strategy for geologic disposal of commercial used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). The immediate goal of the generic deep borehole repository study is to develop the necessary modeling tools to evaluate and improve the understanding of the repository system response and processes relevant to long-term disposal of UNF and HLW in a deep borehole. A prototype performance assessment model for a generic deep borehole repository has been developed using the approach for a mined geological repository. The preliminary results from the simplified deep borehole generic repository performance assessment indicate that soluble, non-sorbing (or weakly sorbing) fission product radionuclides, such as I-129, Se-79 and Cl-36, are the likely major dose contributors, and that the annual radiation doses to hypothetical future humans associated with those releases may be extremely small. While much work needs to be done to validate the model assumptions and parameters, these preliminary results highlight the importance of a robust seal design in assuring long-term isolation, and suggest that deep boreholes may be a viable alternative to mined repositories for disposal of both HLW and UNF. (authors)

  10. A New Analytic-Adaptive Model for EGS Assessment, Development and Management Support

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Danko, George L

    2014-05-29

    To increase understanding of the energy extraction capacity of Enhanced Geothermal System(s) (EGS), a numerical model development and application project is completed. The general objective of the project is to develop and apply a new, data-coupled Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical (T-H-M-C) model in which the four internal components can be freely selected from existing simulation software without merging and cross-combining a diverse set of computational codes. Eight tasks are completed during the project period. The results are reported in five publications, an MS thesis, twelve quarterly, and two annual reports to DOE. Two US patents have also been issued during the project period, with one patent application originated prior to the start of the project. The Multiphase Physical Transport Modeling Method and Modeling System (U.S. Patent 8,396,693 B2, 2013), a key element in the GHE sub-model solution, is successfully used for EGS studies. The Geothermal Energy Extraction System and Method" invention (U.S. Patent 8,430,166 B2, 2013) originates from the time of project performance, describing a new fluid flow control solution. The new, coupled T-H-M-C numerical model will help analyzing and designing new, efficient EGS systems.

  11. Assessing the use of reflectance spectroscopy in determining CsCl stress in the model species Arabidopsis thaliana

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Martinez, N. E.; Sharp, J. L.; Kuhne, W. W.; Johnson, T. E.; Stafford, C. T.; Duff, M. C.

    2015-11-23

    Here, reflectance spectroscopy is a rapid and non-destructive analytical technique that may be used for assessing plant stress, and has potential applications for use in remediation. Changes in reflectance such as that due to metal stress may occur before damage is visible, and existing studies have shown that metal stress does cause changes in plant reflectance. To further investigate the potential use of reflectance spectroscopy as a method for assessing metal stress in plants, an exploratory study was conducted in which Arabidopsis thaliana plants were treated twice weekly in a laboratory setting with varying levels (0, 0.5, or 5 mMmore » (millimolar)) of caesium chloride (CsCl) solution, and reflectance spectra were collected every week for three weeks using an Analytical Spectral Devices FieldSpec Pro spectroradiometer with both a contact probe (CP) and a field of view (FOV) probe at 36.8 and 66.7 cm, respectively, above the plant. Plants were harvested each week after spectra collection for determination of relative water content and chlorophyll content. A visual assessment of the plants was also conducted using point observations on a uniform grid of 81 points. A mixed-effects model analysis was conducted for each vegetation index (VI) considered to determine the effects of length of treatment, treatment level, view with which spectra were acquired, and the interactions of these terms. Two-way analyses of variance (ANOVAs) were performed on the aforementioned endpoints (e.g. chlorophyll content) to determine the significance of the effects of treatment level and length of treatment. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to develop a predictive model for each endpoint, considering VI acquired at each view (CP, high FOV, and low FOV). Of the 14 VI considered, 8 were included in the MLR models. Contact probe readings and FOV readings differed significantly, but FOV measurements were generally consistent at each height.« less

  12. A multi-model assessment of pollution transport to the Arctic

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shindell, D T; Chin, M; Dentener, F; Doherty, R M; Faluvegi, G; Fiore, A M; Hess, P; Koch, D M; MacKenzie, I A; Sanderson, M G; Schultz, M G; Schulz, M; Stevenson, D S; Teich, H; Textor, C; Wild, O; Bergmann, D J; Bey, I; Bian, H; Cuvelier, C; Duncan, B N; Folberth, G; Horowitz, L W; Jonson, J; Kaminski, J W; Marmer, E; Park, R; Pringle, K J; Schroeder, S; Szopa, S; Takemura, T; Zeng, G; Keating, T J; Zuber, A

    2008-03-13

    We examine the response of Arctic gas and aerosol concentrations to perturbations in pollutant emissions from Europe, East and South Asia, and North America using results from a coordinated model intercomparison. These sensitivities to regional emissions (mixing ratio change per unit emission) vary widely across models and species. Intermodel differences are systematic, however, so that the relative importance of different regions is robust. North America contributes the most to Arctic ozone pollution. For aerosols and CO, European emissions dominate at the Arctic surface but East Asian emissions become progressively more important with altitude, and are dominant in the upper troposphere. Sensitivities show strong seasonality: surface sensitivities typically maximize during boreal winter for European and during spring for East Asian and North American emissions. Mid-tropospheric sensitivities, however, nearly always maximize during spring or summer for all regions. Deposition of black carbon (BC) onto Greenland is most sensitive to North American emissions. North America and Europe each contribute {approx}40% of total BC deposition to Greenland, with {approx}20% from East Asia. Elsewhere in the Arctic, both sensitivity and total BC deposition are dominated by European emissions. Model diversity for aerosols is especially large, resulting primarily from differences in aerosol physical and chemical processing (including removal). Comparison of modeled aerosol concentrations with observations indicates problems in the models, and perhaps, interpretation of the measurements. For gas phase pollutants such as CO and O{sub 3}, which are relatively well-simulated, the processes contributing most to uncertainties depend on the source region and altitude examined. Uncertainties in the Arctic surface CO response to emissions perturbations are dominated by emissions for East Asian sources, while uncertainties in transport, emissions, and oxidation are comparable for European and North American sources. At higher levels, model-to-model variations in transport and oxidation are most important. Differences in photochemistry appear to play the largest role in the intermodel variations in Arctic ozone sensitivity, though transport also contributes substantially in the mid-troposphere.

  13. One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-11-18

    An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model including a waterdemand model is coupled offline with a land surface hydrology routing water resources management model. A spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrated reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi and Ohio). Implications for the future flow regulation, water supply and supply deficit are investigated using a climate change projection with the B1 emission scenario which affects both natural flow and water demand. Over the Midwest, changes in flow regulation are mostly driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins. The changes in flow and demand have a combined effect on the Missouri Summer regulated flow. The supply deficit tends to be driven by the change in flow over the region. Spatial analysis demonstrates the relationship between the supply deficit and the change in demand over urban areas not along a main river or with limited storage, and over areas upstream of groundwater dependent fields with therefore overestimated demand.

  14. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume II. SPAHR introductory guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of responses, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projects are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. This volume gives the user of the SPAHR program the information required to operate the program when it is up and running on the computer. It assumes that the user is familiar with the concepts and terms relating to demography and health risk assessment. It contains a brief description of all commands and options available in SPAHR, as well as a user-oriented description of the structure and operation of the control system and language processor.

  15. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; et al

    2015-07-28

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate modelmore » simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m⁻² yr⁻², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation productivity and soil respiration as being needed for reducing uncertainty in land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. These advances will require collection of new field data on vegetation and soil dynamics, the development of benchmarking data sets from measurements and remote-sensing observations, and investments in future model development and intercomparison studies.« less

  16. Assessing FPAR Source and Parameter Optimization Scheme in Application of a Diagnostic Carbon Flux Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turner, D P; Ritts, W D; Wharton, S; Thomas, C; Monson, R; Black, T A

    2009-02-26

    The combination of satellite remote sensing and carbon cycle models provides an opportunity for regional to global scale monitoring of terrestrial gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem production. FPAR (the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the plant canopy) is a critical input to diagnostic models, however little is known about the relative effectiveness of FPAR products from different satellite sensors nor about the sensitivity of flux estimates to different parameterization approaches. In this study, we used multiyear observations of carbon flux at four eddy covariance flux tower sites within the conifer biome to evaluate these factors. FPAR products from the MODIS and SeaWiFS sensors, and the effects of single site vs. cross-site parameter optimization were tested with the CFLUX model. The SeaWiFs FPAR product showed greater dynamic range across sites and resulted in slightly reduced flux estimation errors relative to the MODIS product when using cross-site optimization. With site-specific parameter optimization, the flux model was effective in capturing seasonal and interannual variation in the carbon fluxes at these sites. The cross-site prediction errors were lower when using parameters from a cross-site optimization compared to parameter sets from optimization at single sites. These results support the practice of multisite optimization within a biome for parameterization of diagnostic carbon flux models.

  17. Fish Passage Assessment of an Advanced Hydropower Turbine and Conventional Turbine Using Blade-strike Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Zhiqun; Carlson, Thomas J.; Dauble, Dennis D.; Ploskey, Gene R.

    2011-01-04

    In the Columbia and Snake River basins, several species of Pacific salmon were listed under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 due to significant declines of fish population. Dam operators and design engineers are thus faced with the task of making those hydroelectric facilities more ecologically friendly through changes in hydro-turbine design and operation. Public Utility District No. 2 of Grant County, Washington, applied for re-licensing from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to replace the 10 turbines at Wanapum Dam with advanced hydropower turbines that were designed to increase power generation and improve fish passage conditions. We applied both deterministic and stochastic blade-strike models to the newly installed turbine and an existing turbine. Modeled probabilities were compared to the results of a large-scale live fish survival study and a sensor fish study under the same operational parameters. Overall, injury rates predicted by the deterministic model were higher than experimental rates of injury while those predicted by the stochastic model were in close agreement with experiment results. Fish orientation at the time of entry into the plane of the leading edges of the turbine runner blades was an important factor contributing to uncertainty in modeled results. The advanced design turbine had slightly higher modeled injury rates than the existing turbine design; however, there was no statistical evidence that suggested significant differences in blade-strike injuries between the two turbines and the hypothesis that direct fish survival rate through the advanced hydropower turbine is equal or better than that through the conventional turbine could not be rejected.

  18. Assessment of a mechanistic model in U-Pu-Zr metallic alloy fuel fission-gas behavior simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yun, D.; Rest, J.; Yacout, A. M.

    2012-07-01

    A mechanistic kinetic rate theory model originally developed for the prediction of fission gas behavior in oxide nuclear fuels under steady-state and transient conditions has been assessed to look at its applicability to model fission gas behavior in U-Pu-Zr metallic alloy fuel. In order to capture and validate the underlying physics for irradiated U-Pu-Zr fuels, the mechanistic model was applied to the simulation of fission gas release, fission gas and fission product induced swelling, and the evolution of the gas bubble size distribution in three different fuel zones: the outer {alpha}-U, the intermediate, and the inner {gamma}-U zones. Due to its special microstructural features, the {alpha}-U zone in U-Pu-Zr fuels is believed to contribute the largest fraction of fission gas release among the different fuel zones. It is shown that with the use of small effective grain sizes, the mechanistic model can predict fission gas release that is consistent with (though slightly lower than) experimentally measured data. These simulation results are comparable to the experimentally measured fission gas release since the mechanism of fission gas transport through the densely distributed laminar porosity in the {alpha}-U zone is analogous to the mechanism of fission gas transport through the interconnected gas bubble porosity utilized in the mechanistic model. Detailed gas bubble size distributions predicted with the mechanistic model in both the intermediate zone and the high temperature {gamma}-U zone of U-Pu-Zr fuel are also compared to experimental measurements from available SEM micrographs. These comparisons show good agreements between the simulation results and experimental measurements, and therefore provide crucial guidelines for the selection of key physical parameters required for modeling these two zones. In addition, the results of parametric studies for several key parameters are presented for both the intermediate zone and the {gamma}-U zone simulations. (authors)

  19. A novel QSAR model of Salmonella mutagenicity and its application in the safety assessment of drug impurities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valencia, Antoni; Prous, Josep; Mora, Oscar; Sadrieh, Nakissa; Valerio, Luis G.

    2013-12-15

    As indicated in ICH M7 draft guidance, in silico predictive tools including statistically-based QSARs and expert analysis may be used as a computational assessment for bacterial mutagenicity for the qualification of impurities in pharmaceuticals. To address this need, we developed and validated a QSAR model to predict Salmonella t. mutagenicity (Ames assay outcome) of pharmaceutical impurities using Prous Institute's Symmetry?, a new in silico solution for drug discovery and toxicity screening, and the Mold2 molecular descriptor package (FDA/NCTR). Data was sourced from public benchmark databases with known Ames assay mutagenicity outcomes for 7300 chemicals (57% mutagens). Of these data, 90% was used to train the model and the remaining 10% was set aside as a holdout set for validation. The model's applicability to drug impurities was tested using a FDA/CDER database of 951 structures, of which 94% were found within the model's applicability domain. The predictive performance of the model is acceptable for supporting regulatory decision-making with 84 1% sensitivity, 81 1% specificity, 83 1% concordance and 79 1% negative predictivity based on internal cross-validation, while the holdout dataset yielded 83% sensitivity, 77% specificity, 80% concordance and 78% negative predictivity. Given the importance of having confidence in negative predictions, an additional external validation of the model was also carried out, using marketed drugs known to be Ames-negative, and obtained 98% coverage and 81% specificity. Additionally, Ames mutagenicity data from FDA/CFSAN was used to create another data set of 1535 chemicals for external validation of the model, yielding 98% coverage, 73% sensitivity, 86% specificity, 81% concordance and 84% negative predictivity. - Highlights: A new in silico QSAR model to predict Ames mutagenicity is described. The model is extensively validated with chemicals from the FDA and the public domain. Validation tests show desirable high sensitivity and high negative predictivity. The model predicted 14 reportedly difficult to predict drug impurities with accuracy. The model is suitable to support risk evaluation of potentially mutagenic compounds.

  20. Use of ARM Products in Reanalysis Applications and IPCC Model Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walsh, John E; Chapman, William L

    2011-09-30

    Year-3 of the project was spent developing an observed cloud climatology for Barrow, AK and relating the observed cloud fractions to the surface circulation patterns and locally observed winds. Armed with this information, we identified errors and sources of errors of cloud fraction simulations by numerical models in the Arctic. Specifically, we compared the cloud simulations output by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to corresponding observed cloud fractions obtained by the Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for four mid-season months: (January, April, July, and October). Reanalyses are obtained from numerical weather prediction models that are not run in real-time. Instead, a reanalysis model ingests a wide variety of historical observations for the purpose of producing a gridded dataset of many model-derived quantities that are as temporally homogeneous as possible. Therefore, reanalysis output can be used as a proxy for observations, although some biases and other errors are inevitable because of model parameterizations and observational gaps. In the observational analysis we documented the seasonality of cloudiness at the north slope including cloud base height and dependence on synoptic regime. We followed this with an evaluation of the associations of wind-speed and direction and cloud amounts in both the observational record and the reanalysis model. The Barrow cloud fraction data show that clear conditions are most often associated with anomalous high pressure to the north of Barrow, especially in spring and early summer. Overcast skies are most commonly associated with anomalous low pressure to the south. The observational analysis shows that low, boundary layer clouds are the most common type of cloud observed North Slope ARM observing site. However, these near-surface clouds are a major source of errors in the NARR simulations. When compared to observations, the NARR over-simulates the fraction of low clouds during the winter months, and under-simulates the fraction of low clouds during the summer months. The NARR wind speeds at the North Slope are correlated to the observed ARM wind speeds at Barrow. The following correlations were obtained using the 3-hourly data: Jan (0.84); Apr (0.83); Jul (0.69); Oct (0.79). A negative bias (undersimulation) exists in the reanalysis wind speeds for January through July, but is typically 3ms-1 or less in magnitude. Overall, the magnitude of the wind vector is undersimulated approximately 74% of the time in the cold season months and 85% of the time July, but only about half of the time in October. Wind direction biases in the model are generally small (10-20 degrees), but they are generally in the leftward-turning direction in all months. We also synthesized NARR atmospheric output into a composite analysis of the synoptic conditions that are present when the reanalysis model fails in its simulations of Arctic cloud fractions, and similarly, those conditions present when the model simulates accurate cloud fractions. Cold season errors were highest when high pressure was located north of Barrow favoring anomalous winds and longer fetches from the northeast. In addition, larger cloud fraction biases were found on days with relatively calm winds (2-5 m/s). The most pronounced oversimulation biases associated with poorly simulated clouds occur during conditions with very low cloud-base heights (< 50 m). In contrast, the model appears more adept at capturing cloudless conditions in the spring than the winter with oversimulations occurring just 5% of the time in spring compared to 20% in the winter months. During the warm season, low level clouds are present in 32% of the time with onshore flow and less than half this frequent in offshore wind conditions. Composite sea level pressure fields indicate that clear sky conditions typically result when high pressure is centered at or near Barrow, AK. Overcast days are associated with generally lower sea level pressures near the North Slope and onshore flow from the NW in most months. Warm season errors were highest when high pressure was persistent to the north of Barrow, AK. This synoptic situation results in onshore flow for the North Slope with persistent winds from the east and northeast. In these situations, the predominant climatological synoptic situation, the NARR model under-simulates summer clouds on the North Slope. In general, the NARR often fails to capture clouds in the lowest 200 meters of the atmosphere. We conclude that the cloud model parameterization fails to cature boundary layer clouds like Arctic stratus and fog, which are observed in 65% of the undersimulations. These NARR undersimulations occur most often during onshore flow environments, such as when high pressure is located north of Barrow and the prevailing winds are from the northeast. In these cases, the airflow is along a fetch of scattered sea ice and open ocean (ice concentrations between 0 and 100%). NARR treats sea ice as a binary function. Grid cells are either considered a slap of ice cover, or totally open ocean. We note that implementing provisions for partial sea ice concentrations in the reanalysis model may help in more accurately depicting surface moisture fluxes and associated model-derived low cloud amounts.

  1. Management of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site using Decision-based, Probabilistic Performance Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carilli, J.; Crowe, B.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Stockton, T.; Catlett, K.; Yucel, V.

    2003-02-27

    Low-level radioactive waste from cleanup activities at the Nevada Test Site and from multiple sites across the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex is disposed at two active Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMS) on the Nevada Test Site. These facilities, which are managed by the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office, were recently designated as one of two regional disposal centers and yearly volumes of disposed waste now exceed 50,000 m3 (> 2 million ft3). To safely and cost-effectively manage the disposal facilities, the Waste Management Division of Environmental Management has implemented decision-based management practices using flexible and problem-oriented probabilistic performance assessment modeling. Deterministic performance assessments and composite analyses were completed originally for the Area 5 and Area 3 RWMSs located in, respectively, Frenchman Flat and Yucca Flat on the Nevada Test Site. These documents provide the technical bases for issuance of disposal authorization statements for continuing operation of the disposal facilities. Both facilities are now in a maintenance phase that requires testing of conceptual models, reduction of uncertainty, and site monitoring all leading to eventual closure of the facilities and transition to long-term stewardship.

  2. Assessing the Vulnerability of Large Critical Infrastructure Using Fully-Coupled Blast Effects Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McMichael, L D; Noble, C R; Margraf, J D; Glascoe, L G

    2009-03-26

    Structural failures, such as the MacArthur Maze I-880 overpass in Oakland, California and the I-35 bridge in Minneapolis, Minnesota, are recent examples of our national infrastructure's fragility and serve as an important reminder of such infrastructure in our everyday lives. These two failures, as well as the World Trade Center's collapse and the levee failures in New Orleans, highlight the national importance of protecting our infrastructure as much as possible against acts of terrorism and natural hazards. This paper describes a process for evaluating the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to large blast loads using a fully-coupled finite element approach. A description of the finite element software and modeling technique is discussed along with the experimental validation of the numerical tools. We discuss how such an approach can be used for specific problems such as modeling the progressive collapse of a building.

  3. A methodology for assessing the market benefits of alternative motor fuels: The Alternative Fuels Trade Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leiby, P.N.

    1993-09-01

    This report describes a modeling methodology for examining the prospective economic benefits of displacing motor gasoline use by alternative fuels. The approach is based on the Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). AFTM development was undertaken by the US Department of Energy (DOE) as part of a longer term study of alternative fuels issues. The AFTM is intended to assist with evaluating how alternative fuels may be promoted effectively, and what the consequences of substantial alternative fuels use might be. Such an evaluation of policies and consequences of an alternative fuels program is being undertaken by DOE as required by Section 502(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Interest in alternative fuels is based on the prospective economic, environmental and energy security benefits from the substitution of these fuels for conventional transportation fuels. The transportation sector is heavily dependent on oil. Increased oil use implies increased petroleum imports, with much of the increase coming from OPEC countries. Conversely, displacement of gasoline has the potential to reduce US petroleum imports, thereby reducing reliance on OPEC oil and possibly weakening OPEC`s ability to extract monopoly profits. The magnitude of US petroleum import reduction, the attendant fuel price changes, and the resulting US benefits, depend upon the nature of oil-gas substitution and the supply and demand behavior of other world regions. The methodology applies an integrated model of fuel market interactions to characterize these effects.

  4. Interactive Photochemistry in Earth System Models to Assess Uncertainty in Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; Nicolau, Alex; Veidenbaum, Alex; Smith, Philip Cameron; Bergmann, Dan

    2014-11-07

    Atmospheric chemistry controls the abundances and hence climate forcing of important greenhouse gases including N2O, CH4, HFCs, CFCs, and O3. Attributing climate change to human activities requires, at a minimum, accurate models of the chemistry and circulation of the atmosphere that relate emissions to abundances. This DOE-funded research provided realistic, yet computationally optimized and affordable, photochemical modules to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that augment the CESM capability to explore the uncertainty in future stratospheric-tropospheric ozone, stratospheric circulation, and thus the lifetimes of chemically controlled greenhouse gases from climate simulations. To this end, we have successfully implemented Fast-J (radiation algorithm determining key chemical photolysis rates) and Linoz v3.0 (linearized photochemistry for interactive O3, N2O, NOy and CH4) packages in LLNL-CESM and for the first time demonstrated how change in O2 photolysis rate within its uncertainty range can significantly impact on the stratospheric climate and ozone abundances. From the UCI side, this proposal also helped LLNL develop a CAM-Superfast Chemistry model that was implemented for the IPCC AR5 and contributed chemical-climate simulations to CMIP5.

  5. A dynamic model for assessing the effects of management strategies on the reduction of construction and demolition waste

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yuan Hongping; Chini, Abdol R.; Lu Yujie; Shen Liyin

    2012-03-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We proposes a model for projecting C and D waste reduction of construction projects. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The model can simulate effects of various management strategies on waste reduction. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The model integrates all essential variables that affect C and D waste reduction. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer By using the model, best strategies could be identified before being implemented. - Abstract: During the past few decades, construction and demolition (C and D) waste has received increasing attention from construction practitioners and researchers worldwide. A plethora of research regarding C and D waste management has been published in various academic journals. However, it has been determined that existing studies with respect to C and D waste reduction are mainly carried out from a static perspective, without considering the dynamic and interdependent nature of the whole waste reduction system. This might lead to misunderstanding about the actual effect of implementing any waste reduction strategies. Therefore, this research proposes a model that can serve as a decision support tool for projecting C and D waste reduction in line with the waste management situation of a given construction project, and more importantly, as a platform for simulating effects of various management strategies on C and D waste reduction. The research is conducted using system dynamics methodology, which is a systematic approach that deals with the complexity - interrelationships and dynamics - of any social, economic and managerial system. The dynamic model integrates major variables that affect C and D waste reduction. In this paper, seven causal loop diagrams that can deepen understanding about the feedback relationships underlying C and D waste reduction system are firstly presented. Then a stock-flow diagram is formulated by using software for system dynamics modeling. Finally, a case study is used to illustrate the validation and application of the proposed model. Results of the case study not only built confidence in the model so that it can be used for quantitative analysis, but also assessed and compared the effect of three designed policy scenarios on C and D waste reduction. One major contribution of this study is the development of a dynamic model for evaluating C and D waste reduction strategies under various scenarios, so that best management strategies could be identified before being implemented in practice.

  6. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance activity. This will allow (i) a direct comparison of future TC activity that could be expected for an active or inactive season in an altered climate regime, and (ii) a measure of the level of uncertainty and variability in TC activity resulting from different carbon emission scenarios.

  7. MELCOR 1.8.5 modeling aspects of fission product release, transport and deposition an assessment with recommendations.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gauntt, Randall O.

    2010-04-01

    The Phebus and VERCORS data have played an important role in contemporary understanding and modeling of fission product release and transport from damaged light water reactor fuel. The data from these test programs have allowed improvement of MELCOR modeling of release and transport processes for both low enrichment uranium fuel as well as high burnup and mixed oxide (MOX) fuels. This paper discusses the synthesis of these findings in the MELCOR severe accident code. Based on recent assessments of MELCOR 1.8.5 fission product release modeling against the Phebus FPT-1 test and on observations from the ISP-46 exercise, modifications to the default MELCOR 1.8.5 release models are recommended. The assessments identified an alternative set of Booth diffusion parameters recommended by ORNL (ORNL-Booth), which produced significantly improved release predictions for cesium and other fission product groups. Some adjustments to the scaling factors in the ORNL-Booth model were made for selected fission product groups, including UO{sub 2}, Mo and Ru in order to obtain better comparisons with the FPT-1 data. The adjusted model, referred to as 'Modified ORNL-Booth,' was subsequently compared to original ORNL VI fission product release experiments and to more recently performed French VERCORS tests, and the comparisons was as favorable or better than the original CORSOR-M MELCOR default release model. These modified ORNL-Booth parameters, input to MELCOR 1.8.5 as 'sensitivity coefficients' (i.e. user input that over-rides the code defaults) are recommended for the interim period until improved release models can be implemented into MELCOR. For the case of ruthenium release in air-oxidizing conditions, some additional modifications to the Ru class vapor pressure are recommended based on estimates of the RuO{sub 2} vapor pressure over mildly hyperstoichiometric UO{sub 2}. The increased vapor pressure for this class significantly increases the net transport of Ru from the fuel to the gas stream. A formal model is needed. Deposition patterns in the Phebus FPT-1 circuit were also significantly improved by using the modified ORNL-Booth parameters, where retention of lower volatile Cs{sub 2}MoO{sub 4} is now predicted in the heated exit regions of the FPT-1 test, bringing down depositions in the FPT-1 steam generator tube to be in closer alignment with the experimental data. This improvement in 'RCS' deposition behavior preserves the overall correct release of cesium to the containment that was observed even with the default CORSOR-M model. Not correctly treated however is the release and transport of Ag to the FPT-1 containment. A model for Ag release from control rods is presently not available in MELCOR. Lack of this model is thought to be responsible for the underprediction by a factor of two of the total aerosol mass to the FPT-1 containment. It is suggested that this underprediction of airborne mass led to an underprediction of the aerosol agglomeration rate. Underprediction of the agglomeration rate leads to low predictions of the aerosol particle size in comparison to experimentally measured ones. Small particle size leads low predictions of the gravitational settling rate relative to the experimental data. This error, however, is a conservative one in that too-low settling rate would result in a larger source term to the environment. Implementation of an interim Ag release model is currently under study. In the course of this assessment, a review of MELCOR release models was performed and led to the identification of several areas for future improvements to MELCOR. These include upgrading the Booth release model to account for changes in local oxidizing/reducing conditions and including a fuel oxidation model to accommodate effects of fuel stoichiometry. Models such as implemented in the French ELSA code and described by Lewis are considered appropriate for MELCOR. A model for ruthenium release under air oxidizing conditions is also needed and should be included as part of a fuel oxidation model since fuel stoichiometry is a fundamen

  8. A Qualitative Readiness-Requirements Assessment Model for Enterprise Big-Data Infrastructure Investment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olama, Mohammed M; McNair, Wade; Sukumar, Sreenivas R; Nutaro, James J

    2014-01-01

    In the last three decades, there has been an exponential growth in the area of information technology providing the information processing needs of data-driven businesses in government, science, and private industry in the form of capturing, staging, integrating, conveying, analyzing, and transferring data that will help knowledge workers and decision makers make sound business decisions. Data integration across enterprise warehouses is one of the most challenging steps in the big data analytics strategy. Several levels of data integration have been identified across enterprise warehouses: data accessibility, common data platform, and consolidated data model. Each level of integration has its own set of complexities that requires a certain amount of time, budget, and resources to implement. Such levels of integration are designed to address the technical challenges inherent in consolidating the disparate data sources. In this paper, we present a methodology based on industry best practices to measure the readiness of an organization and its data sets against the different levels of data integration. We introduce a new Integration Level Model (ILM) tool, which is used for quantifying an organization and data system s readiness to share data at a certain level of data integration. It is based largely on the established and accepted framework provided in the Data Management Association (DAMA-DMBOK). It comprises several key data management functions and supporting activities, together with several environmental elements that describe and apply to each function. The proposed model scores the maturity of a system s data governance processes and provides a pragmatic methodology for evaluating integration risks. The higher the computed scores, the better managed the source data system and the greater the likelihood that the data system can be brought in at a higher level of integration.

  9. Updated Life-Cycle Assessment of Aluminum Production and Semi-fabrication for the GREET Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dai, Qiang; Kelly, Jarod C.; Burnham, Andrew; Elgowainy, Amgad

    2015-09-01

    This report serves as an update for the life-cycle analysis (LCA) of aluminum production based on the most recent data representing the state-of-the-art of the industry in North America. The 2013 Aluminum Association (AA) LCA report on the environmental footprint of semifinished aluminum products in North America provides the basis for the update (The Aluminum Association, 2013). The scope of this study covers primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, as well as aluminum semi-fabrication processes including hot rolling, cold rolling, extrusion and shape casting. This report focuses on energy consumptions, material inputs and criteria air pollutant emissions for each process from the cradle-to-gate of aluminum, which starts from bauxite extraction, and ends with manufacturing of semi-fabricated aluminum products. The life-cycle inventory (LCI) tables compiled are to be incorporated into the vehicle cycle model of Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) Model for the release of its 2015 version.

  10. Hydrogeologic analyses in support of the conceptual model for the LANL Area G LLRW performance assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vold, E.L.; Birdsell, K.; Rogers, D.; Springer, E.; Krier, D.; Turin, H.J.

    1996-04-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory low level radioactive waste disposal facility at Area G is currently completing a draft of the site Performance Assessment. Results from previous field studies have estimated a range in recharge rate up to 1 cm/yr. Recent estimates of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity for each stratigraphic layer under a unit gradient assumption show a wide range in recharge rate of 10{sup {minus}4} to 1 cm/yr depending upon location. Numerical computations show that a single net infiltration rate at the mesa surface does not match the moisture profile in each stratigraphic layer simultaneously, suggesting local source or sink terms possibly due to surface connected porous regions. The best fit to field data at deeper stratigraphic layers occurs for a net infiltration of about 0.1 cm/yr. A recent detailed analysis evaluated liquid phase vertical moisture flux, based on moisture profiles in several boreholes and van Genuchten fits to the hydraulic properties for each of the stratigraphic units. Results show a near surface infiltration region averages 8m deep, below which is a dry, low moisture content, and low flux region, where liquid phase recharge averages to zero. Analysis shows this low flux region is dominated by vapor movement. Field data from tritium diffusion studies, from pressure fluctuation attenuation studies, and from comparisons of in-situ and core sample permeabilities indicate that the vapor diffusion is enhanced above that expected in the matrix and is presumably due to enhanced flow through the fractures. Below this dry region within the mesa is a moisture spike which analyses show corresponds to a moisture source. The likely physical explanation is seasonal transient infiltration through surface-connected fractures. This anomalous region is being investigated in current field studies, because it is critical in understanding the moisture flux which continues to deeper regions through the unsaturated zone.

  11. Heat Pump Water Heater Technology Assessment Based on Laboratory Research and Energy Simulation Models: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hudon, K.; Sparn, B.; Christensen, D.; Maguire, J.

    2012-02-01

    This paper explores the laboratory performance of five integrated Heat Pump Water Heaters (HPWHs) across a wide range of operating conditions representative of US climate regions. Laboratory results demonstrate the efficiency of this technology under most of the conditions tested and show that differences in control schemes and design features impact the performance of the individual units. These results were used to understand current model limitations, and then to bracket the energy savings potential for HPWH technology in various US climate regions. Simulation results show that HPWHs are expected to provide significant energy savings in many climate zones when compared to other types of water heaters (up to 64%, including impact on HVAC systems).

  12. Dynamic modeling of physical phenomena for probabilistic assessment of spent fuel accidents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benjamin, A.S.

    1997-11-01

    If there should be an accident involving drainage of all the water from a spent fuel pool, the fuel elements will heat up until the heat produced by radioactive decay is balanced by that removed by natural convection to air, thermal radiation, and other means. If the temperatures become high enough for the cladding or other materials to ignite due to rapid oxidation, then some of the fuel might melt, leading to an undesirable release of radioactive materials. The amount of melting is dependent upon the fuel loading configuration and its age, the oxidation and melting characteristics of the materials, and the potential effectiveness of recovery actions. The authors have developed methods for modeling the pertinent physical phenomena and integrating the results with a probabilistic treatment of the uncertainty distributions. The net result is a set of complementary cumulative distribution functions for the amount of fuel melted.

  13. Calculating impacts of energy standards on energy demand in U.S. buildings with uncertainty in an integrated assessment model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, an integrated assessment model (IAM) uses a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The paper finds that aggressive building-energy codes and equipment standards are an effective, cost-saving way to reduce energy consumption in buildings and greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. states. This conclusion is robust to significant uncertainties in population, economic activity, climate, carbon prices, and technology performance and costs.

  14. A Multi-Methods Approach to HRA and Human Performance Modeling: A Field Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacques Hugo; David I Gertman

    2012-06-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) is a research reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory is primarily designed and used to test materials to be used in other, larger-scale and prototype reactors. The reactor offers various specialized systems and allows certain experiments to be run at their own temperature and pressure. The ATR Canal temporarily stores completed experiments and used fuel. It also has facilities to conduct underwater operations such as experiment examination or removal. In reviewing the ATR safety basis, a number of concerns were identified involving the ATR canal. A brief study identified ergonomic issues involving the manual handling of fuel elements in the canal that may increase the probability of human error and possible unwanted acute physical outcomes to the operator. In response to this concern, that refined the previous HRA scoping analysis by determining the probability of the inadvertent exposure of a fuel element to the air during fuel movement and inspection was conducted. The HRA analysis employed the SPAR-H method and was supplemented by information gained from a detailed analysis of the fuel inspection and transfer tasks. This latter analysis included ergonomics, work cycles, task duration, and workload imposed by tool and workplace characteristics, personal protective clothing, and operational practices that have the potential to increase physical and mental workload. Part of this analysis consisted of NASA-TLX analyses, combined with operational sequence analysis, computational human performance analysis (CHPA), and 3D graphical modeling to determine task failures and precursors to such failures that have safety implications. Experience in applying multiple analysis techniques in support of HRA methods is discussed.

  15. Mathematical modeling of positron emission tomography (PET) data to assess radiofluoride transport in living plants following petiolar administration

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Converse, Alexander K.; Ahlers, Elizabeth O.; Bryan, Tom W.; Hetue, Jackson D.; Lake, Katherine A.; Ellison, Paul A.; Engle, Jonathan W.; Barnhart, Todd E.; Nickles, Robert J.; Williams, Paul H.; et al

    2015-03-15

    Background: Ion transport is a fundamental physiological process that can be studied non-invasively in living plants with radiotracer imaging methods. Fluoride is a known phytotoxic pollutant and understanding its transport in plants after leaf absorption is of interest to those in agricultural areas near industrial sources of airborne fluoride. Here we report the novel use of a commercial, high-resolution, animal positron emission tomography (PET) scanner to trace a bolus of [¹⁸F]fluoride administered via bisected petioles of Brassica oleracea, an established model species, to simulate whole plant uptake of atmospheric fluoride. This methodology allows for the first time mathematical compartmental modelingmore » of fluoride transport in the living plant. Radiotracer kinetics in the stem were described with a single-parameter free- and trapped-compartment model and mean arrival times at different stem positions were calculated from the free-compartment time-activity curves. Results: After initiation of administration at the bisected leaf stalk, [¹⁸F] radioactivity climbed for approximately 10 minutes followed by rapid washout from the stem and equilibration within leaves. Kinetic modeling of transport in the stem yielded a trapping rate of 1.5 +/- 0.3%/min (mean +/- s.d., n = 3), velocity of 2.2 +/- 1.1 cm/min, and trapping fraction of 0.8 +/- 0.5%/cm. Conclusion: Quantitative assessment of physiologically meaningful transport parameters of fluoride in living plants is possible using standard positron emission tomography in combination with petiolar radiotracer administration. Movement of free fluoride was observed to be consistent with bulk flow in xylem, namely a rapid and linear change in position with respect to time. Trapping, likely in the apoplast, was observed. Future applications of the methods described here include studies of transport of other ions and molecules of interest in plant physiology.« less

  16. Intergranular stress-corrosion cracking of Ni-Cr-Fe Alloy 600 tubes in PWR primary water - review and assessment for model development. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garud, Y.S.; Gerber, T.L.

    1983-05-01

    The service performance of Ni-Cr-Fe Alloy 600 tubes with respect to primary-side intergranular stress-corrosion cracking (IGSCC) and related experimental observations are reviewed, assessed, and summarized. The qualitative trends suggested by these observations and the role of primary variables of IGSCC are discussed from the point of view of mechanistic considerations. The need for a quantitative model to predict the IGSCC is established. The review and assessment indicate that, in addition to the water chemistry and metallurgical variables, explicit consideration of stress (and attendant deformation, i.e., strain-rate) is essential for any evaluation of the IGSCC to be complete. A promising approach of quantitative model development is presented with the above background. The analytical-experimental work needed for the model development is suggested, and implementation of the model and potential benefits to utilities is briefly discussed.

  17. A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Naz, Bibi S; Tootle, Glenn

    2014-01-01

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.

  18. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Caterpillar, Sandia CRADA Opens Door to Multiple Research Projects Capabilities, Computational Modeling & Simulation, CRF, Materials Science, Modeling, Modeling, Modeling & ...

  19. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  20. Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle; Rabiti, Cristian; Kinoshita, Robert Arthur; Kim, Jong Suk; Deason, Wesley Ray; Boardman, Richard Doin; Garcia, Humberto E.

    2015-09-01

    An effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year 2015 (FY15). The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status on its progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, starting from a simulation strategy, a rigorous mathematical formulation has been achieved in which the economic optimization of a Nuclear Hybrid Energy System is presented as a constrained robust (under uncertainty) optimization problem. Some possible algorithms for the solution of the optimization problem are presented. A variation of the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation algorithm has been implemented in RAVEN and preliminary tests have been performed. The development of the software infrastructure to support the simulation of the whole NHES has also moved forward. The coupling between RAVEN and an implementation of the Modelica language (OpenModelica) has been implemented, migrated under several operating systems and tested using an adapted model of a desalination plant. In particular, this exercise was focused on testing the coupling of the different code systems; testing parallel, computationally expensive simulations on the INL cluster; and providing a proof of concept for the possibility of using surrogate models to represent the different NHES subsystems. Another important step was the porting of the RAVEN code under the Windows™ operating system. This accomplishment makes RAVEN compatible with the development environment that is being used for dynamic simulation of NHES components. A very simplified model of a NHES on the electric market has been built in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces even for stochastic constraints. This capability will be needed in the future to enforce the stochastic constraints on the electric demand coverage from the NHES. The development team gained experience with many of the tools that are currently envisioned for use in the economic analysis of NHES and completed several important steps. Given the complexity of the project, preference has been given to a structural approach in which several independent efforts have been used to build the cornerstone of the simulation framework. While this is good approach in establishing such a complex framework, it may delay reaching more complete results on the performance of analyzed system configurations. The integration of the previously reported exergy analysis approach was initially proposed as part of this milestone. However, in reality, the exergy-based apportioning of cost will take place only in a second stage of the implementation since it will be used to properly allocate cost among the different NHES subsystems. Therefore, exergy does not appear at the level of the main drivers in the analysis framework; the latter development of the base framework is the focus of this report.

  1. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 3 -- Residential and commercial sector DSM analyses: Detailed results from the DBEDT DSM assessment model; Part 1, Technical potential

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The Hawaii Demand-Side Management Resource Assessment was the fourth of seven projects in the Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) program. HES was designed by the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism (DBEDT) to produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. The purpose of Project 4 was to develop a comprehensive assessment of Hawaii`s demand-side management (DSM) resources. To meet this objective, the project was divided into two phases. The first phase included development of a DSM technology database and the identification of Hawaii commercial building characteristics through on-site audits. These Phase 1 products were then used in Phase 2 to identify expected energy impacts from DSM measures in typical residential and commercial buildings in Hawaii. The building energy simulation model DOE-2.1E was utilized to identify the DSM energy impacts. More detailed information on the typical buildings and the DOE-2.1E modeling effort is available in Reference Volume 1, ``Building Prototype Analysis``. In addition to the DOE-2.1E analysis, estimates of residential and commercial sector gas and electric DSM potential for the four counties of Honolulu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai through 2014 were forecasted by the new DBEDT DSM Assessment Model. Results from DBEDTs energy forecasting model, ENERGY 2020, were linked with results from DOE-2.1E building energy simulation runs and estimates of DSM measure impacts, costs, lifetime, and anticipated market penetration rates in the DBEDT DSM Model. Through its algorithms, estimates of DSM potential for each forecast year were developed. Using the load shape information from the DOE-2.1E simulation runs, estimates of electric peak demand impacts were developed. Numerous tables and figures illustrating the technical potential for demand-side management are included.

  2. Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Assessing the Outlook of US Oil Dependence Using Oil Security Metrics Model (OSMM)

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation given by Oak Ridge National Laboratory at 2015 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Office Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting about assessing the...

  3. Summary of Conceptual Models and Data Needs to Support the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility Performance Assessment and Composite Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    A. Jeff Sondrup; Annette L. Schafter; Arthur S. Rood

    2010-09-01

    An overview of the technical approach and data required to support development of the performance assessment, and composite analysis are presented for the remote handled low-level waste disposal facility on-site alternative being considered at Idaho National Laboratory. Previous analyses and available data that meet requirements are identified and discussed. Outstanding data and analysis needs are also identified and summarized. The on-site disposal facility is being evaluated in anticipation of the closure of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the INL. An assessment of facility performance and of the composite performance are required to meet the Department of Energys Low-Level Waste requirements (DOE Order 435.1, 2001) which stipulate that operation and closure of the disposal facility will be managed in a manner that is protective of worker and public health and safety, and the environment. The corresponding established procedures to ensure these protections are contained in DOE Manual 435.1-1, Radioactive Waste Management Manual (DOE M 435.1-1 2001). Requirements include assessment of (1) all-exposure pathways, (2) air pathway, (3) radon, and (4) groundwater pathway doses. Doses are computed from radionuclide concentrations in the environment. The performance assessment and composite analysis are being prepared to assess compliance with performance objectives and to establish limits on concentrations and inventories of radionuclides at the facility and to support specification of design, construction, operation and closure requirements. Technical objectives of the PA and CA are primarily accomplished through the development of an establish inventory, and through the use of predictive environmental transport models implementing an overarching conceptual framework. This document reviews the conceptual model, inherent assumptions, and data required to implement the conceptual model in a numerical framework. Available site-specific data and data sources are then addressed. Differences in required analyses and data are captured as outstanding data needs.

  4. Model-based feasibility assessment and evaluation of prostate hyperthermia with a commercial MR-guided endorectal HIFU ablation array

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salgaonkar, Vasant A. Hsu, I-C.; Diederich, Chris J.; Prakash, Punit; Rieke, Viola; Ozhinsky, Eugene; Kurhanewicz, John; Plata, Juan

    2014-03-15

    Purpose: Feasibility of targeted and volumetric hyperthermia (40–45 °C) delivery to the prostate with a commercial MR-guided endorectal ultrasound phased array system, designed specifically for thermal ablation and approved for ablation trials (ExAblate 2100, Insightec Ltd.), was assessed through computer simulations and tissue-equivalent phantom experiments with the intention of fast clinical translation for targeted hyperthermia in conjunction with radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Methods: The simulations included a 3D finite element method based biothermal model, and acoustic field calculations for the ExAblate ERUS phased array (2.3 MHz, 2.3 × 4.0 cm{sup 2}, ∼1000 channels) using the rectangular radiator method. Array beamforming strategies were investigated to deliver protracted, continuous-wave hyperthermia to focal prostate cancer targets identified from representative patient cases. Constraints on power densities, sonication durations and switching speeds imposed by ExAblate hardware and software were incorporated in the models. Preliminary experiments included beamformed sonications in tissue mimicking phantoms under MR temperature monitoring at 3 T (GE Discovery MR750W). Results: Acoustic intensities considered during simulation were limited to ensure mild hyperthermia (T{sub max} < 45 °C) and fail-safe operation of the ExAblate array (spatial and time averaged acoustic intensity I{sub SATA} < 3.4 W/cm{sup 2}). Tissue volumes with therapeutic temperature levels (T > 41 °C) were estimated. Numerical simulations indicated that T > 41 °C was calculated in 13–23 cm{sup 3} volumes for sonications with planar or diverging beam patterns at 0.9–1.2 W/cm{sup 2}, in 4.5–5.8 cm{sup 3} volumes for simultaneous multipoint focus beam patterns at ∼0.7 W/cm{sup 2}, and in ∼6.0 cm{sup 3} for curvilinear (cylindrical) beam patterns at 0.75 W/cm{sup 2}. Focused heating patterns may be practical for treating focal disease in a single posterior quadrant of the prostate and diffused heating patterns may be useful for heating quadrants, hemigland volumes or even bilateral targets. Treatable volumes may be limited by pubic bone heating. Therapeutic temperatures were estimated for a range of physiological parameters, sonication duty cycles and rectal cooling. Hyperthermia specific phasing patterns were implemented on the ExAblate prostate array and continuous-wave sonications (∼0.88 W/cm{sup 2}, 15 min) were performed in tissue-mimicking material with real-time MR-based temperature imaging (PRFS imaging at 3.0 T). Shapes of heating patterns observed during experiments were consistent with simulations. Conclusions: The ExAblate 2100, designed specifically for thermal ablation, can be controlled for delivering continuous hyperthermia in prostate while working within operational constraints.

  5. Solar Resource Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Renne, D.; George, R.; Wilcox, S.; Stoffel, T.; Myers, D.; Heimiller, D.

    2008-02-01

    This report covers the solar resource assessment aspects of the Renewable Systems Interconnection study. The status of solar resource assessment in the United States is described, and summaries of the availability of modeled data sets are provided.

  6. The watershed-scale optimized and rearranged landscape design (WORLD) model and local biomass processing depots for sustainable biofuel production: Integrated life cycle assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eranki, Pragnya L.; Manowitz, David H.; Bals, Bryan D.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kim, Seungdo; Dale, Bruce E.

    2013-07-23

    An array of feedstock is being evaluated as potential raw material for cellulosic biofuel production. Thorough assessments are required in regional landscape settings before these feedstocks can be cultivated and sustainable management practices can be implemented. On the processing side, a potential solution to the logistical challenges of large biorefi neries is provided by a network of distributed processing facilities called local biomass processing depots. A large-scale cellulosic ethanol industry is likely to emerge soon in the United States. We have the opportunity to influence the sustainability of this emerging industry. The watershed-scale optimized and rearranged landscape design (WORLD) model estimates land allocations for different cellulosic feedstocks at biorefinery scale without displacing current animal nutrition requirements. This model also incorporates a network of the aforementioned depots. An integrated life cycle assessment is then conducted over the unified system of optimized feedstock production, processing, and associated transport operations to evaluate net energy yields (NEYs) and environmental impacts.

  7. Progression of performance assessment modeling for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Progression of performance assessment modeling for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste Rob P. Rechard a,n , Michael L. Wilson b , S. David Sevougian c a Nuclear Waste Disposal Research & Analysis, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0747, USA b Systems Analysis/Operations Research, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-1138, USA c Applied Systems Analysis & Research, Sandia National Laboratories,

  8. Use of international data sets to evaluate and validate pathway assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities. Progress report, August 1993--January 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hendrickson, S.M.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1994-03-01

    This project, ``Use of International Data Sets to Evaluate and Validate Pathway Assessment Models Applicable to Exposure and Dose Reconstruction at DOE Facilities,`` grew out of several activities being conducted by the Principal Investigator Dr. F Owen Hoffman. One activity was originally part of the Chernobyl Studies Project and began as Task 7.1D, ``Internal Dose From Direct Contamination of Terrestrial Food Sources.`` The objective of Task 7.1D was to (1) establish a collaborative US USSR effort to improve and validate our methods of forecasting doses and dose commitments from the direct contamination of food sources, and (2) perform experiments and validation studies to improve our ability to predict rapidly and accurately the long-term internal dose from the contamination of agricultural soil. The latter was to include the consideration of remedial measures to block contamination of food grown on contaminated soil. The current objective of this project is to evaluate and validate pathway-assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities through use of international data sets. This project incorporates the activity of Task 7.1D into a multinational effort to evaluate data used for the prediction of radionuclide transfer through agricultural and aquatic systems to humans. It also includes participation in two multinational studies, BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) with the Swedish National Institute for Radiation Protection and VAMP (VAlidation of Model Predictions) with the International Atomic Energy Agency, that address testing the performance of models of radionuclide transport through foodchains.

  9. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

  10. Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, J. R.; Grubesic, T. H.; Sim, L.; Rose, K.; Graham, J.

    2015-08-01

    Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spillmore » Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.« less

  11. Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, J. R.; Grubesic, T. H.; Sim, L.; Rose, K.; Graham, J.

    2015-08-01

    Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.

  12. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Permalink Wind Generator Modeling Computational Modeling & Simulation, Energy, Energy Surety, Grid Integration, Infrastructure Security, Modeling, Modeling & Analysis, News, News & Events, Renewable Energy, SMART Grid, Systems Analysis, Transmission Grid Integration, Wind Energy Wind Generator Modeling This modular block diagram represents the major components of the generic dynamic wind turbine generator models. Model blocks and parameters are used to represent the different wind

  13. Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) : gap analysis for high fidelity and performance assessment code development.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Joon H.; Siegel, Malcolm Dean; Arguello, Jose Guadalupe, Jr.; Webb, Stephen Walter; Dewers, Thomas A.; Mariner, Paul E.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Fuller, Timothy J.; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Jove-Colon, Carlos F.; Wang, Yifeng

    2011-03-01

    This report describes a gap analysis performed in the process of developing the Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign. The goal of the Waste IPSC is to develop an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive waste storage or disposal system. The Waste IPSC will provide this simulation capability (1) for a range of disposal concepts, waste form types, engineered repository designs, and geologic settings, (2) for a range of time scales and distances, (3) with appropriate consideration of the inherent uncertainties, and (4) in accordance with rigorous verification, validation, and software quality requirements. The gap analyses documented in this report were are performed during an initial gap analysis to identify candidate codes and tools to support the development and integration of the Waste IPSC, and during follow-on activities that delved into more detailed assessments of the various codes that were acquired, studied, and tested. The current Waste IPSC strategy is to acquire and integrate the necessary Waste IPSC capabilities wherever feasible, and develop only those capabilities that cannot be acquired or suitably integrated, verified, or validated. The gap analysis indicates that significant capabilities may already exist in the existing THC codes although there is no single code able to fully account for all physical and chemical processes involved in a waste disposal system. Large gaps exist in modeling chemical processes and their couplings with other processes. The coupling of chemical processes with flow transport and mechanical deformation remains challenging. The data for extreme environments (e.g., for elevated temperature and high ionic strength media) that are needed for repository modeling are severely lacking. In addition, most of existing reactive transport codes were developed for non-radioactive contaminants, and they need to be adapted to account for radionuclide decay and in-growth. The accessibility to the source codes is generally limited. Because the problems of interest for the Waste IPSC are likely to result in relatively large computational models, a compact memory-usage footprint and a fast/robust solution procedure will be needed. A robust massively parallel processing (MPP) capability will also be required to provide reasonable turnaround times on the analyses that will be performed with the code. A performance assessment (PA) calculation for a waste disposal system generally requires a large number (hundreds to thousands) of model simulations to quantify the effect of model parameter uncertainties on the predicted repository performance. A set of codes for a PA calculation must be sufficiently robust and fast in terms of code execution. A PA system as a whole must be able to provide multiple alternative models for a specific set of physical/chemical processes, so that the users can choose various levels of modeling complexity based on their modeling needs. This requires PA codes, preferably, to be highly modularized. Most of the existing codes have difficulties meeting these requirements. Based on the gap analysis results, we have made the following recommendations for the code selection and code development for the NEAMS waste IPSC: (1) build fully coupled high-fidelity THCMBR codes using the existing SIERRA codes (e.g., ARIA and ADAGIO) and platform, (2) use DAKOTA to build an enhanced performance assessment system (EPAS), and build a modular code architecture and key code modules for performance assessments. The key chemical calculation modules will be built by expanding the existing CANTERA capabilities as well as by extracting useful components from other existing codes.

  14. A user's guide to the GoldSim/BLT-MS integrated software package:a low-level radioactive waste disposal performance assessment model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knowlton, Robert G.; Arnold, Bill Walter; Mattie, Patrick D.

    2007-03-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia), a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory, has over 30 years experience in the assessment of radioactive waste disposal and at the time of this publication is providing assistance internationally in a number of areas relevant to the safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal systems. In countries with small radioactive waste programs, international technology transfer program efforts are often hampered by small budgets, schedule constraints, and a lack of experienced personnel. In an effort to surmount these difficulties, Sandia has developed a system that utilizes a combination of commercially available software codes and existing legacy codes for probabilistic safety assessment modeling that facilitates the technology transfer and maximizes limited available funding. Numerous codes developed and endorsed by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and codes developed and maintained by United States Department of Energy are generally available to foreign countries after addressing import/export control and copyright requirements. From a programmatic view, it is easier to utilize existing codes than to develop new codes. From an economic perspective, it is not possible for most countries with small radioactive waste disposal programs to maintain complex software, which meets the rigors of both domestic regulatory requirements and international peer review. Therefore, revitalization of deterministic legacy codes, as well as an adaptation of contemporary deterministic codes, provides a credible and solid computational platform for constructing probabilistic safety assessment models. This document is a reference users guide for the GoldSim/BLT-MS integrated modeling software package developed as part of a cooperative technology transfer project between Sandia National Laboratories and the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER) in Taiwan for the preliminary assessment of several candidate low-level waste repository sites. Breach, Leach, and Transport-Multiple Species (BLT-MS) is a U.S. NRC sponsored code which simulates release and transport of contaminants from a subsurface low-level waste disposal facility. GoldSim is commercially available probabilistic software package that has radionuclide transport capabilities. The following report guides a user through the steps necessary to use the integrated model and presents a successful application of the paradigm of renewing legacy codes for contemporary application.

  15. Inter-comparison of Computer Codes for TRISO-based Fuel Micro-Modeling and Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brian Boer; Chang Keun Jo; Wen Wu; Abderrafi M. Ougouag; Donald McEachren; Francesco Venneri

    2010-10-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP), the Deep Burn Pebble Bed Reactor (DB-PBR) and the Deep Burn Prismatic Block Reactor (DB-PMR) are all based on fuels that use TRISO particles as their fundamental constituent. The TRISO particle properties include very high durability in radiation environments, hence the designs reliance on the TRISO to form the principal barrier to radioactive materials release. This durability forms the basis for the selection of this fuel type for applications such as Deep Bun (DB), which require exposures up to four times those expected for light water reactors. It follows that the study and prediction of the durability of TRISO particles must be carried as part of the safety and overall performance characterization of all the designs mentioned above. Such evaluations have been carried out independently by the performers of the DB project using independently developed codes. These codes, PASTA, PISA and COPA, incorporate models for stress analysis on the various layers of the TRISO particle (and of the intervening matrix material for some of them), model for fission products release and migration then accumulation within the SiC layer of the TRISO particle, just next to the layer, models for free oxygen and CO formation and migration to the same location, models for temperature field modeling within the various layers of the TRISO particle and models for the prediction of failure rates. All these models may be either internal to the code or external. This large number of models and the possibility of different constitutive data and model formulations and the possibility of a variety of solution techniques makes it highly unlikely that the model would give identical results in the modeling of identical situations. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of an inter-comparison between the codes and to identify areas of agreement and areas that need reconciliation. The inter-comparison has been carried out by the cooperating institutions using a set of pre-defined TRISO conditions (burnup levels, temperature or power levels, etc.) and the outcome will be tabulated in the full length paper. The areas of agreement will be pointed out and the areas that require further modeling or reconciliation will be shown. In general the agreement between the codes is good within less than one order of magnitude in the prediction of TRISO failure rates.

  16. Application of Probabilistic Performance Assessment Modeling for Optimization of Maintenance Studies for Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites at the Nevada Test Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowe, B.; Yucel, V.; Rawlinson, S.; Black, P.; Carilli, J.; DiSanza, F.

    2002-02-25

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration of the Nevada Operations Office (NNSA/NV) operates and maintains two active facilities on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) that dispose defense-generated low-level radioactive waste (LLW), mixed radioactive waste, and ''classified waste'' in shallow trenches and pits. The operation and maintenance of the LLW disposal sites are self-regulated by the DOE under DOE Order 435.1. This Order requires formal review of a performance assessment (PA) and composite analysis (CA; assessment of all interacting radiological sources) for each LLW disposal system followed by an active maintenance program that extends through and beyond the site closure program. The Nevada disposal facilities continue to receive NTS-generated LLW and defense-generated LLW from across the DOE complex. The PA/CAs for the sites have been conditionally approved and the facilities are now under a formal maintenance program that requires testing of conceptual models, quantifying and attempting to reduce uncertainty, and implementing confirmatory and long-term background monitoring, all leading to eventual closure of the disposal sites. To streamline and reduce the cost of the maintenance program, the NNSA/NV is converting the deterministic PA/CAs to probabilistic models using GoldSim, a probabilistic simulation computer code. The output of probabilistic models will provide expanded information supporting long-term decision objectives of the NTS disposal sites.

  17. A spatially distributed model for the assessment of land use impacts on stream temperature in small urban watersheds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sun, Ning; Yearsley, John; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-05-15

    Stream temperatures in urban watersheds are influenced to a high degree by anthropogenic impacts related to changes in landscape, stream channel morphology, and climate. These impacts can occur at small time and length scales, hence require analytical tools that consider the influence of the hydrologic regime, energy fluxes, topography, channel morphology, and near-stream vegetation distribution. Here we describe a modeling system that integrates the Distributed Hydrologic Soil Vegetation Model, DHSVM, with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model RBM, which has the capability to simulate the hydrology and water temperature of urban streams at high time and space resolutions, as well as a representation of the effects of riparian shading on stream energetics. We demonstrate the modeling system through application to the Mercer Creek watershed, a small urban catchment near Bellevue, Washington. The results suggest that the model is able both to produce realistic streamflow predictions at fine temporal and spatial scales, and to provide spatially distributed water temperature predictions that are consistent with observations throughout a complex stream network. We use the modeling construct to characterize impacts of land use change and near-stream vegetation change on stream temperature throughout the Mercer Creek system. We then explore the sensitivity of stream temperature to land use changes and modifications in vegetation along the riparian corridor.

  18. Integrated Assessment | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    URI: cleanenergysolutions.orgcontenttimes-integrated-assessment-model-0,h Language: English Policies: Deployment Programs DeploymentPrograms: Technical Assistance...

  19. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  20. Assessing the use of reflectance spectroscopy in determining CsCl stress in the model species Arabidopsis thaliana

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martinez, N. E.; Sharp, J. L.; Kuhne, W. W.; Johnson, T. E.; Stafford, C. T.; Duff, M. C.

    2015-11-23

    Here, reflectance spectroscopy is a rapid and non-destructive analytical technique that may be used for assessing plant stress, and has potential applications for use in remediation. Changes in reflectance such as that due to metal stress may occur before damage is visible, and existing studies have shown that metal stress does cause changes in plant reflectance. To further investigate the potential use of reflectance spectroscopy as a method for assessing metal stress in plants, an exploratory study was conducted in which Arabidopsis thaliana plants were treated twice weekly in a laboratory setting with varying levels (0, 0.5, or 5 mM (millimolar)) of caesium chloride (CsCl) solution, and reflectance spectra were collected every week for three weeks using an Analytical Spectral Devices FieldSpec Pro spectroradiometer with both a contact probe (CP) and a field of view (FOV) probe at 36.8 and 66.7 cm, respectively, above the plant. Plants were harvested each week after spectra collection for determination of relative water content and chlorophyll content. A visual assessment of the plants was also conducted using point observations on a uniform grid of 81 points. A mixed-effects model analysis was conducted for each vegetation index (VI) considered to determine the effects of length of treatment, treatment level, view with which spectra were acquired, and the interactions of these terms. Two-way analyses of variance (ANOVAs) were performed on the aforementioned endpoints (e.g. chlorophyll content) to determine the significance of the effects of treatment level and length of treatment. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to develop a predictive model for each endpoint, considering VI acquired at each view (CP, high FOV, and low FOV). Of the 14 VI considered, 8 were included in the MLR models. Contact probe readings and FOV readings differed significantly, but FOV measurements were generally consistent at each height.

  1. Assessing the Importance of Nonlinearities in the Development of a Substructure Model for the Wind Turbine CAE Tool FAST: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Damiani, R.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.; Song, H.

    2013-03-01

    Design and analysis of wind turbines are performed using aero-servo-elastic tools that account for the nonlinear coupling between aerodynamics, controls, and structural response. The NREL-developed computer-aided engineering (CAE) tool FAST also resolves the hydrodynamics of fixed-bottom structures and floating platforms for offshore wind applications. This paper outlines the implementation of a structural-dynamics module (SubDyn) for offshore wind turbines with space-frame substructures into the current FAST framework, and focuses on the initial assessment of the importance of structural nonlinearities. Nonlinear effects include: large displacements, axial shortening due to bending, cross-sectional transverse shear effects, etc.

  2. Assessment of Current Process Modeling Approaches to Determine Their Limitations, Applicability and Developments Needed for Long-Fiber Thermoplastic Injection Molded Composites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nguyen, Ba Nghiep; Holbery, Jim; Smith, Mark T.; Kunc, Vlastimil; Norris, Robert E.; Phelps, Jay; Tucker III, Charles L.

    2006-11-30

    This report describes the status of the current process modeling approaches to predict the behavior and flow of fiber-filled thermoplastics under injection molding conditions. Previously, models have been developed to simulate the injection molding of short-fiber thermoplastics, and an as-formed composite part or component can then be predicted that contains a microstructure resulting from the constituents material properties and characteristics as well as the processing parameters. Our objective is to assess these models in order to determine their capabilities and limitations, and the developments needed for long-fiber injection-molded thermoplastics (LFTs). First, the concentration regimes are summarized to facilitate the understanding of different types of fiber-fiber interaction that can occur for a given fiber volume fraction. After the formulation of the fiber suspension flow problem and the simplification leading to the Hele-Shaw approach, the interaction mechanisms are discussed. Next, the establishment of the rheological constitutive equation is presented that reflects the coupled flow/orientation nature. The decoupled flow/orientation approach is also discussed which constitutes a good simplification for many applications involving flows in thin cavities. Finally, before outlining the necessary developments for LFTs, some applications of the current orientation model and the so-called modified Folgar-Tucker model are illustrated through the fiber orientation predictions for selected LFT samples.

  3. MELTER: A model of the thermal response of cargos transported in the Safe-Secure Trailer subject to fire environments for risk assessment applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Larsen, M.E.

    1994-08-01

    MELTER is an analysis of cargo responses inside a fire-threatened Safe-Secure Trailer (SST) developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA). Many simplifying assumptions are required to make the subject problem tractable. MELTER incorporates modeling which balances the competing requirements of execution speed, generality, completeness of essential physics, and robustness. Input parameters affecting the analysis include those defining the fire scenario, those defining the cargo loaded in the SST, and those defining properties of the SST. For a specified fire, SST, and cargo geometry MELTER predicts the critical fire duration that will lead to a failure. The principal features of the analysis include: (a) Geometric considerations to interpret fire-scenario descriptors in terms of a thermal radiation boundary condition, (b) a simple model of the SST`s wall combining the diffusion model for radiation through optically-thick media with an endothermic reaction front to describe the charring of dimensional, rigid foam in the SST wall, (c) a transient radiation enclosure model, (d) a one-dimensional, spherical idealization of the shipped cargos providing modularity so that cargos of interest can be inserted into the model, and (e) associated numerical methods to integrate coupled, differential equations and find roots.

  4. Likelihood-based gene annotations for gap filling and quality assessment in genome-scale metabolic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benedict, Matthew N.; Mundy, Michael B.; Henry, Christopher S.; Chia, Nicholas; Price, Nathan D.; Maranas, Costas D.

    2014-10-16

    Genome-scale metabolic models provide a powerful means to harness information from genomes to deepen biological insights. With exponentially increasing sequencing capacity, there is an enormous need for automated reconstruction techniques that can provide more accurate models in a short time frame. Current methods for automated metabolic network reconstruction rely on gene and reaction annotations to build draft metabolic networks and algorithms to fill gaps in these networks. However, automated reconstruction is hampered by database inconsistencies, incorrect annotations, and gap filling largely without considering genomic information. Here we develop an approach for applying genomic information to predict alternative functions for genes and estimate their likelihoods from sequence homology. We show that computed likelihood values were significantly higher for annotations found in manually curated metabolic networks than those that were not. We then apply these alternative functional predictions to estimate reaction likelihoods, which are used in a new gap filling approach called likelihood-based gap filling to predict more genomically consistent solutions. To validate the likelihood-based gap filling approach, we applied it to models where essential pathways were removed, finding that likelihood-based gap filling identified more biologically relevant solutions than parsimony-based gap filling approaches. We also demonstrate that models gap filled using likelihood-based gap filling provide greater coverage and genomic consistency with metabolic gene functions compared to parsimony-based approaches. Interestingly, despite these findings, we found that likelihoods did not significantly affect consistency of gap filled models with Biolog and knockout lethality data. This indicates that the phenotype data alone cannot necessarily be used to discriminate between alternative solutions for gap filling and therefore, that the use of other information is necessary to obtain a more accurate network. All described workflows are implemented as part of the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) and are publicly available via API or command-line web interface.

  5. Likelihood-based gene annotations for gap filling and quality assessment in genome-scale metabolic models

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Benedict, Matthew N.; Mundy, Michael B.; Henry, Christopher S.; Chia, Nicholas; Price, Nathan D.; Maranas, Costas D.

    2014-10-16

    Genome-scale metabolic models provide a powerful means to harness information from genomes to deepen biological insights. With exponentially increasing sequencing capacity, there is an enormous need for automated reconstruction techniques that can provide more accurate models in a short time frame. Current methods for automated metabolic network reconstruction rely on gene and reaction annotations to build draft metabolic networks and algorithms to fill gaps in these networks. However, automated reconstruction is hampered by database inconsistencies, incorrect annotations, and gap filling largely without considering genomic information. Here we develop an approach for applying genomic information to predict alternative functions for genesmore » and estimate their likelihoods from sequence homology. We show that computed likelihood values were significantly higher for annotations found in manually curated metabolic networks than those that were not. We then apply these alternative functional predictions to estimate reaction likelihoods, which are used in a new gap filling approach called likelihood-based gap filling to predict more genomically consistent solutions. To validate the likelihood-based gap filling approach, we applied it to models where essential pathways were removed, finding that likelihood-based gap filling identified more biologically relevant solutions than parsimony-based gap filling approaches. We also demonstrate that models gap filled using likelihood-based gap filling provide greater coverage and genomic consistency with metabolic gene functions compared to parsimony-based approaches. Interestingly, despite these findings, we found that likelihoods did not significantly affect consistency of gap filled models with Biolog and knockout lethality data. This indicates that the phenotype data alone cannot necessarily be used to discriminate between alternative solutions for gap filling and therefore, that the use of other information is necessary to obtain a more accurate network. All described workflows are implemented as part of the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) and are publicly available via API or command-line web interface.« less

  6. A GIS COST MODEL TO ASSESS THE AVAILABILITY OF FRESHWATER, SEAWATER, AND SALINE GROUNDWATER FOR ALGAL BIOFUEL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Venteris, Erik R.; Skaggs, Richard; Coleman, Andre M.; Wigmosta, Mark S.

    2013-03-15

    A key advantage of using microalgae for biofuel production is the ability of some algal strains to thrive in waters unsuitable for conventional crop irrigation such as saline groundwater or seawater. Nonetheless, the availability of sustainable water supplies will provide significant challenges for scale-up and development of algal biofuels. We conduct a limited techno-economic assessment based on the availability of freshwater, saline groundwater, and seawater for use in open pond algae cultivation systems. We explore water issues through GIS-based models of algae biofuel production, freshwater supply, and cost models for supplying seawater and saline groundwater. We estimate that combined, within the coterminous US these resources can support production on the order of 9.46E+7 m3 yr-1 (25 billion gallons yr-1) of renewable biodiesel. Achievement of larger targets requires the utilization of less water efficient sites and relatively expensive saline waters. Geographically, water availability is most favorable for the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula, where evaporation relative to precipitation is moderate and various saline waters are economically available. As a whole, barren and scrub lands of the southwestern US have limited freshwater supplies so accurate assessment of alternative waters is critical.

  7. Development of Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the Iron and Steel Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, T.T.; Sathaye, J.; Galitsky, C.

    2010-09-30

    Adoption of efficient end-use technologies is one of the key measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With the working of energy programs and policies on carbon regulation, how to effectively analyze and manage the costs associated with GHG reductions become extremely important for the industry and policy makers around the world. Energy-climate (EC) models are often used for analyzing the costs of reducing GHG emissions (e.g., carbon emission) for various emission-reduction measures, because an accurate estimation of these costs is critical for identifying and choosing optimal emission reduction measures, and for developing related policy options to accelerate market adoption and technology implementation. However, accuracies of assessing of GHG-emission reduction costs by taking into account the adoption of energy efficiency technologies will depend on how well these end-use technologies are represented in integrated assessment models (IAM) and other energy-climate models. In this report, we first conduct brief overview on different representations of end-use technologies (mitigation measures) in various energy-climate models, followed by problem statements, and a description of the basic concepts of quantifying the cost of conserved energy including integrating non-regrets options. A non-regrets option is defined as a GHG reduction option that is cost effective, without considering their additional benefits related to reducing GHG emissions. Based upon these, we develop information on costs of mitigation measures and technological change. These serve as the basis for collating the data on energy savings and costs for their future use in integrated assessment models. In addition to descriptions of the iron and steel making processes, and the mitigation measures identified in this study, the report includes tabulated databases on costs of measure implementation, energy savings, carbon-emission reduction, and lifetimes. The cost curve data on mitigation measures are available over time, which allows an estimation of technological change over a decade-long historical period. In particular, the report will describe new treatment of technological change in energy-climate modeling for this industry sector, i.e., assessing the changes in costs and energy-savings potentials via comparing 1994 and 2002 conservation supply curves. In this study, we compared the same set of mitigation measures for both 1994 and 2002 -- no additional mitigation measure for year 2002 was included due to unavailability of such data. Therefore, the estimated potentials in total energy savings and carbon reduction would most likely be more conservative for year 2002 in this study. Based upon the cost curves, the rate of change in the savings potential at a given cost can be evaluated and be used to estimate future rates of change that can be the input for energy-climate models. Through characterizing energy-efficiency technology costs and improvement potentials, we have developed and presented energy cost curves for energy efficiency measures applicable to the U.S. iron and steel industry for the years 1994 and 2002. The cost curves can change significantly under various scenarios: the baseline year, discount rate, energy intensity, production, industry structure (e.g., integrated versus secondary steel making and number of plants), efficiency (or mitigation) measures, share of iron and steel production to which the individual measures can be applied, and inclusion of other non-energy benefits. Inclusion of other non-energy benefits from implementing mitigation measures can reduce the costs of conserved energy significantly. In addition, costs of conserved energy (CCE) for individual mitigation measures increase with the increases in discount rates, resulting in a general increase in total cost of mitigation measures for implementation and operation with a higher discount rate. In 1994, integrated steel mills in the U.S. produced 55.

  8. Use of international data sets to evaluate and validate pathway assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities. Progress report, March--May 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anspaugh, L.R.; Hendrickson, S.M.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1994-06-01

    The project described in this report was the result of a Memorandum of Cooperation between the US and the former-USSR following the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Unit 4. A joint program was established to improve the safety of nuclear power plants and to understand the implications of environmental releases. The task of Working Group 7 was ``to develop jointly methods to project rapidly the health effects of any future nuclear reactor accident.`` The current objective of this project is to evaluate and validate pathway-assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities through use of international data sets. This project incorporates data used for the prediction of radionuclide transfer through agricultural and aquatic systems to humans. It also includes participation in two multinational studies, BIOMOVS (Biospheric Model Validation Study) with the Swedish National Institute for Radiation Protection and VAMP (Validation of Model Predictions) with the International Atomic Energy Agency, that address testing the performance of models of radionuclide transport through foodchains. In the future, this project will be considered separately from the Chernobyl Studies Project and the essential activities of former Task 7.1D will be folded within the broader umbrella of the BIOMOVS and VAMP projects. The Working Group Leader of Task 7.1D will continue to provide oversight for this project.

  9. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of a small set of comprehensive event trees and fault trees and recommendation for future work.

  10. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    PVLibMatlab Permalink Gallery Sandia Labs Releases New Version of PVLib Toolbox Modeling, News, Photovoltaic, Solar Sandia Labs Releases New Version of PVLib Toolbox Sandia has released version 1.3 of PVLib, its widely used Matlab toolbox for modeling photovoltaic (PV) power systems. The version 1.3 release includes the following added functions: functions to estimate parameters for popular PV module models, including PVsyst and the CEC '5 parameter' model a new model of the effects of solar

  11. SIMPLIFIED PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR CO2 SEQUESTRATION PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT RESEARCH TOPICAL REPORT ON TASK #4 REDUCED-ORDER METHOD (ROM) BASED MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mishra, Srikanta; Jin, Larry; He, Jincong; Durlofsky, Louis

    2015-06-30

    Reduced-order models provide a means for greatly accelerating the detailed simulations that will be required to manage CO2 storage operations. In this work, we investigate the use of one such method, POD-TPWL, which has previously been shown to be effective in oil reservoir simulation problems. This method combines trajectory piecewise linearization (TPWL), in which the solution to a new (test) problem is represented through a linearization around the solution to a previously-simulated (training) problem, with proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), which enables solution states to be expressed in terms of a relatively small number of parameters. We describe the application of POD-TPWL for CO2-water systems simulated using a compositional procedure. Stanford’s Automatic Differentiation-based General Purpose Research Simulator (AD-GPRS) performs the full-order training simulations and provides the output (derivative matrices and system states) required by the POD-TPWL method. A new POD-TPWL capability introduced in this work is the use of horizontal injection wells that operate under rate (rather than bottom-hole pressure) control. Simulation results are presented for CO2 injection into a synthetic aquifer and into a simplified model of the Mount Simon formation. Test cases involve the use of time-varying well controls that differ from those used in training runs. Results of reasonable accuracy are consistently achieved for relevant well quantities. Runtime speedups of around a factor of 370 relative to full- order AD-GPRS simulations are achieved, though the preprocessing needed for POD-TPWL model construction corresponds to the computational requirements for about 2.3 full-order simulation runs. A preliminary treatment for POD-TPWL modeling in which test cases differ from training runs in terms of geological parameters (rather than well controls) is also presented. Results in this case involve only small differences between training and test runs, though they do demonstrate that the approach is able to capture basic solution trends. The impact of some of the detailed numerical treatments within the POD-TPWL formulation is considered in an Appendix. ii

  12. DRSPALL: Impact of the Modification of the Numerical Spallings Model on Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Performance Assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kicker, Dwayne Curtis; Herrick, Courtney G.; Zeitler, Todd; Malama, Bwalya; Rudeen, David Keith; Gilkey, Amy P.

    2016-01-01

    The numerical code DRSPALL (from direct release spallings) is written to calculate the volume of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) solid waste subject to material failure and transport to the surface as a result of a hypothetical future inadvertent drilling intrusion. An error in the implementation of the DRSPALL finite difference equations was discovered as documented in Software Problem Report (SPR) 13-001. The modifications to DRSPALL to correct the finite difference equations are detailed, and verification and validation testing has been completed for the modified DRSPALL code. The complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) of spallings releases obtained using the modified DRSPALL is higher compared to that found in previous WIPP performance assessment (PA) calculations. Compared to previous PAs, there was an increase in the number of vectors that result in a nonzero spallings volume, which generally translates to an increase in spallings releases. The overall mean CCDFs for total releases using the modified DRSPALL are virtually unchanged, thus the modification to DRSPALL did not impact WIPP PA calculation results.

  13. Data Analysis, Pre-Ignition Assessment, and Post-Ignition Modeling of the Large-Scale Annular Cookoff Tests

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G. Terrones; F.J. Souto; R.F. Shea; M.W.Burkett; E.S. Idar

    2005-09-30

    In order to understand the implications that cookoff of plastic-bonded explosive-9501 could have on safety assessments, we analyzed the available data from the large-scale annular cookoff (LSAC) assembly series of experiments. In addition, we examined recent data regarding hypotheses about pre-ignition that may be relevant to post-ignition behavior. Based on the post-ignition data from Shot 6, which had the most complete set of data, we developed an approximate equation of state (EOS) for the gaseous products of deflagration. Implementation of this EOS into the multimaterial hydrodynamics computer program PAGOSA yielded good agreement with the inner-liner collapse sequence for Shot 6 and with other data, such as velocity interferometer system for any reflector and resistance wires. A metric to establish the degree of symmetry based on the concept of time of arrival to pin locations was used to compare numerical simulations with experimental data. Several simulations were performed to elucidate the mode of ignition in the LSAC and to determine the possible compression levels that the metal assembly could have been subjected to during post-ignition.

  14. Assessment of Uncertainties in the Response of the African Monsoon Precipitation to Land Use change simulated by a regional model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

  15. Empirical, probabilistic, and modelling approaches to assess cross-media impacts to marine sediments at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rohrer, W.L.; Vita, C.L.; Schrock, W.; Leicht, G.

    1996-12-31

    Dredge spoils, industrial fill, and liquid wastes from the 1940s to 1970s have resulted in inorganic and organic contamination of soils, groundwater, and marine sediments near the U.S.S. Missouri and Charleston Beach parking lots at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard (PSNS), in Bremerton, Washington. Extensive collection of environmental data from several studies including the recently completed Remedial Investigation conducted under CERCLA have confirmed contaminant levels above federal risk screening levels and state regulatory criteria for several heavy metals and organic compounds, including pesticides and PCBs. Although the correlation between contamination in marine sediments and those in on-shore fill appears to be strong, there is little evidence that a viable transport pathway currently exists from soils to groundwater and thence to sediments. Several methods used to estimate chemical mass flux from soil to groundwater to sediments and marine waters of Sinclair Inlet are corroborative in this regard. Nonetheless, this result is vexing because present groundwater concentrations exceed ARARs, yet are below levels of concern in terms of mass flux to marine waters. Despite the marginal risks posed by groundwater, various remedial alternatives, including perimeter containment using a subsurface waste-stabilized containment wall, were evaluated to determine whether chemical flux could be reduced to levels below those observed at the present time. Three-dimensional flow modelling and transport modelling also confirmed that chemical fluxes were limited in magnitude and could be addressed with more conventional remedial approaches.

  16. Assessment of Uncertainties in the Response of the African Monsoon Precipitation to Land Use change simulated by a regional model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin-Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubsmore » and an increase in surface air temperature.« less

  17. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Engine Combustion/Modeling Modelingadmin2015-10-28T01:54:52+00:00 Modelers at the CRF are developing high-fidelity simulation tools for engine combustion and detailed micro-kinetic, surface chemistry modeling tools for catalyst-based exhaust aftertreatment systems. The engine combustion modeling is focused on developing Large Eddy Simulation (LES). LES is being used with closely coupled key target experiments to reveal new understanding of the fundamental processes involved in engine combustion

  18. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Reacting Flow/Modeling Modelingadmin2015-10-28T02:39:13+00:00 Turbulence models typically involve coarse-graining and/or time averaging. Though adequate for modeling mean transport, this approach does not address turbulence-microphysics interactions that are important in combustion processes. Subgrid models are developed to represent these interactions. The CRF has developed a fundamentally different representation of these interactions that does not involve distinct coarse-grained and subgrid

  19. Calculating Impacts of Energy Standards on Energy Demand in U.S. Buildings under Uncertainty with an Integrated Assessment Model: Technical Background Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-12-06

    This report presents data and assumptions employed in an application of PNNL’s Global Change Assessment Model with a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability. The model is used to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The report provides a summary of how residential and commercial buildings are modeled, together with assumptions made for the distributions of state–level population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per worker, efficiency and cost of residential and commercial energy equipment by end use, and efficiency and cost of residential and commercial building shells. The cost and performance of equipment and of building shells are reported separately for current building and equipment efficiency standards and for more aggressive standards. The report also details assumptions concerning future improvements brought about by projected trends in technology.

  20. Development of a Kelp-type Structure Module in a Coastal Ocean Model to Assess the Hydrodynamic Impact of Seawater Uranium Extraction Technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Taiping; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Long, Wen; Gill, Gary A.

    2014-02-07

    In recent years, with the rapid growth of global energy demand, the interest in extracting uranium from seawater for nuclear energy has been renewed. While extracting seawater uranium is not yet commercially viable, it serves as a backstop to the conventional uranium resources and provides an essentially unlimited supply of uranium resource. With recent advances in seawater uranium extraction technology, extracting uranium from seawater could be economically feasible when the extraction devices are deployed at a large scale (e.g., several hundred km2). There is concern however that the large scale deployment of adsorbent farms could result in potential impacts to the hydrodynamic flow field in an oceanic setting. In this study, a kelp-type structure module was incorporated into a coastal ocean model to simulate the blockage effect of uranium extraction devices on the flow field. The module was quantitatively validated against laboratory flume experiments for both velocity and turbulence profiles. The model-data comparison showed an overall good agreement and validated the approach of applying the model to assess the potential hydrodynamic impact of uranium extraction devices or other underwater structures in coastal oceans.

  1. Development and Demonstration of a Modeling Framework for Assessing the Efficacy of Using Mine Water for Thermoelectric Power Generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2010-03-01

    Thermoelectric power plants use large volumes of water for condenser cooling and other plant operations. Traditionally, this water has been withdrawn from the cleanest water available in streams and rivers. However, as demand for electrical power increases it places increasing demands on freshwater resources resulting in conflicts with other off stream water users. In July 2002, NETL and the Governor of Pennsylvania called for the use of water from abandoned mines to replace our reliance on the diminishing and sometimes over allocated surface water resource. In previous studies the National Mine Land Reclamation Center (NMLRC) at West Virginia University has demonstrated that mine water has the potential to reduce the capital cost of acquiring cooling water while at the same time improving the efficiency of the cooling process due to the constant water temperatures associated with deep mine discharges. The objectives of this project were to develop and demonstrate a user-friendly computer based design aid for assessing the costs, technical and regulatory aspects and potential environmental benefits for using mine water for thermoelectric generation. The framework provides a systematic process for evaluating the hydrologic, chemical, engineering and environmental factors to be considered in using mine water as an alternative to traditional freshwater supply. A field investigation and case study was conducted for the proposed 300 MW Beech Hollow Power Plant located in Champion, Pennsylvania. The field study based on previous research conducted by NMLRC identified mine water sources sufficient to reliably supply the 2-3,000gpm water supply requirement of Beech Hollow. A water collection, transportation and treatment system was designed around this facility. Using this case study a computer based design aid applicable to large industrial water users was developed utilizing water collection and handling principals derived in the field investigation and during previous studies of mine water and power plant cooling. Visual basic software was used to create general information/evaluation modules for a range of power plant water needs that were tested/verified against the Beech Hollow project. The program allows for consideration of blending mine water as needed as well as considering potential thermal and environmental benefits that can be derived from using constant temperature mine water. Users input mine water flow, quality, distance to source, elevations to determine collection, transport and treatment system design criteria. The program also evaluates low flow volumes and sustainable yields for various sources. All modules have been integrated into a seamless user friendly computer design aid and user's manual for evaluating the capital and operating costs of mine water use. The framework will facilitate the use of mine water for thermoelectric generation, reduce demand on freshwater resources and result in environmental benefits from reduced emissions and abated mine discharges.

  2. SIMULATION MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE MOST PROMISING GEOLOGIC SEQUESTRATION FORMATION CANDIDATES IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION, USA, WITH FOCUS ON UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Si-Yong; Zaluski, Wade; Will, Robert; Eisinger, Chris; Matthews, Vince; McPherson, Brian

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to report results of reservoir model simulation analyses for forecasting subsurface CO2 storage capacity estimation for the most promising formations in the Rocky Mountain region of the USA. A particular emphasis of this project was to assess uncertainty of the simulation-based forecasts. Results illustrate how local-scale data, including well information, number of wells, and location of wells, affect storage capacity estimates and what degree of well density (number of wells over a fixed area) may be required to estimate capacity within a specified degree of confidence. A major outcome of this work was development of a new workflow of simulation analysis, accommodating the addition of “random pseudo wells” to represent virtual characterization wells.

  3. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    WVMinputs-outputs Permalink Gallery Sandia Labs releases wavelet variability model (WVM) Modeling, News, Photovoltaic, Solar Sandia Labs releases wavelet variability model (WVM) When a single solar photovoltaic (PV) module is in full sunlight, then is shaded by a cloud, and is back in full sunlight in a matter of seconds, a sharp dip then increase in power output will result. However, over an entire PV plant, clouds will often uncover some modules even as they cover others, [...] By Andrea

  4. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    A rail tank car of the type used to transport crude oil across North America. Recent incidents have raised concerns about the safety of this practice, which the DOE-DOT-sponsored team is investigating. (photo credit: Harvey Henkelmann) Permalink Gallery Expansion of DOE-DOT Tight Oil Research Work Capabilities, Carbon Capture & Storage, Carbon Storage, Energy, Energy Assurance, Energy Assurance, Fuel Options, Infrastructure Assurance, Infrastructure Security, Modeling, Modeling, Modeling

  5. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Monte Carlo modeling it was found that for noisy signals with a significant background component, accuracy is improved by fitting the total emission data which includes the...

  6. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Renewable Energy, Research & Capabilities, Wind Energy, Wind News|0 Comments Read More ... Energy, Research & Capabilities, Water Power Sandia Modifies Delft3D Turbine Model ...

  7. Assessment Program

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... SCADA Assessments Since 1999, Sandia has conducted numerous assessments of operational systems in hydroelectric dams; water treatment systems; electric power transmission, ...

  8. Technical Approach for Determining Key Parameters Needed for Modeling the Performance of Cast Stone for the Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yabusaki, Steven B.; Serne, R. Jeffrey; Rockhold, Mark L.; Wang, Guohui; Westsik, Joseph H.

    2015-03-30

    Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) and its contractors at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) are conducting a development program to develop / refine the cementitious waste form for the wastes treated at the ETF and to provide the data needed to support the IDF PA. This technical approach document is intended to provide guidance to the cementitious waste form development program with respect to the waste form characterization and testing information needed to support the IDF PA. At the time of the preparation of this technical approach document, the IDF PA effort is just getting started and the approach to analyze the performance of the cementitious waste form has not been determined. Therefore, this document looks at a number of different approaches for evaluating the waste form performance and describes the testing needed to provide data for each approach. Though the approach addresses a cementitious secondary aqueous waste form, it is applicable to other waste forms such as Cast Stone for supplemental immobilization of Hanford LAW. The performance of Cast Stone as a physical and chemical barrier to the release of contaminants of concern (COCs) from solidification of Hanford liquid low activity waste (LAW) and secondary wastes processed through the Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF) is of critical importance to the Hanford Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF) total system performance assessment (TSPA). The effectiveness of cementitious waste forms as a barrier to COC release is expected to evolve with time. PA modeling must therefore anticipate and address processes, properties, and conditions that alter the physical and chemical controls on COC transport in the cementitious waste forms over time. Most organizations responsible for disposal facility operation and their regulators support an iterative hierarchical safety/performance assessment approach with a general philosophy that modeling provides the critical link between the short-term understanding from laboratory and field tests, and the prediction of repository performance over repository time frames and scales. One common recommendation is that experiments be designed to permit the appropriate scaling in the models. There is a large contrast in the physical and chemical properties between the Cast Stone waste package and the IDF backfill and surrounding sediments. Cast Stone exhibits low permeability, high tortuosity, low carbonate, high pH, and low Eh whereas the backfill and native sediments have high permeability, low tortuosity, high carbonate, circumneutral pH, and high Eh. These contrasts have important implications for flow, transport, and reactions across the Cast Stone – backfill interface. Over time with transport across the interface and subsequent reactions, the sharp geochemical contrast will blur and there will be a range of spatially-distributed conditions. In general, COC mobility and transport will be sensitive to these geochemical variations, which also include physical changes in porosity and permeability from mineral reactions. Therefore, PA modeling must address processes, properties, and conditions that alter the physical and chemical controls on COC transport in the cementitious waste forms over time. Section 2 of this document reviews past Hanford PAs and SRS Saltstone PAs, which to date have mostly relied on the lumped parameter COC release conceptual models for TSPA predictions, and provides some details on the chosen values for the lumped parameters. Section 3 provides more details on the hierarchical modeling strategy and processes and mechanisms that control COC release. Section 4 summarizes and lists the key parameters for which numerical values are needed to perform PAs. Section 5 provides brief summaries of the methods used to measure the needed parameters and references to get more details.

  9. Assessing the nonlinear response of fine particles to precursor emissions: Development and application of an extended response surface modeling technique v1.0

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Xing, J.; Fu, K.; Fu, J. S.; Jang, C.; Zhu, Y.; Dong, X. Y.; Gao, Y.; Wu, W. J.; et al

    2015-01-30

    An innovative extended response surface modeling technique (ERSM v1.0) is developed to characterize the nonlinear response of fine particles (PM₂̣₅) to large and simultaneous changes of multiple precursor emissions from multiple regions and sectors. The ERSM technique is developed based on the conventional response surface modeling (RSM) technique; it first quantifies the relationship between PM₂̣₅ concentrations and the emissions of gaseous precursors from each single region using the conventional RSM technique, and then assesses the effects of inter-regional transport of PM₂̣₅ and its gaseous precursors on PM₂̣₅ concentrations in the target region. We apply this novel technique with a widelymore » used regional chemical transport model (CTM) over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of China, and evaluate the response of PM₂̣₅ and its inorganic components to the emissions of 36 pollutant–region–sector combinations. The predicted PM₂̣₅ concentrations agree well with independent CTM simulations; the correlation coefficients are larger than 0.98 and 0.99, and the mean normalized errors (MNEs) are less than 1 and 2% for January and August, respectively. It is also demonstrated that the ERSM technique could reproduce fairly well the response of PM₂̣₅ to continuous changes of precursor emission levels between zero and 150%. Employing this new technique, we identify the major sources contributing to PM₂̣₅ and its inorganic components in the YRD region. The nonlinearity in the response of PM₂̣₅ to emission changes is characterized and the underlying chemical processes are illustrated.« less

  10. Assessing the nonlinear response of fine particles to precursor emissions: Development and application of an extended response surface modeling technique v1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Xing, J.; Fu, K.; Fu, J. S.; Jang, C.; Zhu, Y.; Dong, X. Y.; Gao, Y.; Wu, W. J.; Wang, J. D.; Hao, J. M.

    2015-01-30

    An innovative extended response surface modeling technique (ERSM v1.0) is developed to characterize the nonlinear response of fine particles (PM₂̣₅) to large and simultaneous changes of multiple precursor emissions from multiple regions and sectors. The ERSM technique is developed based on the conventional response surface modeling (RSM) technique; it first quantifies the relationship between PM₂̣₅ concentrations and the emissions of gaseous precursors from each single region using the conventional RSM technique, and then assesses the effects of inter-regional transport of PM₂̣₅ and its gaseous precursors on PM₂̣₅ concentrations in the target region. We apply this novel technique with a widely used regional chemical transport model (CTM) over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of China, and evaluate the response of PM₂̣₅ and its inorganic components to the emissions of 36 pollutant–region–sector combinations. The predicted PM₂̣₅ concentrations agree well with independent CTM simulations; the correlation coefficients are larger than 0.98 and 0.99, and the mean normalized errors (MNEs) are less than 1 and 2% for January and August, respectively. It is also demonstrated that the ERSM technique could reproduce fairly well the response of PM₂̣₅ to continuous changes of precursor emission levels between zero and 150%. Employing this new technique, we identify the major sources contributing to PM₂̣₅ and its inorganic components in the YRD region. The nonlinearity in the response of PM₂̣₅ to emission changes is characterized and the underlying chemical processes are illustrated.

  11. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NASA Earth at Night Video EC, Energy, Energy Efficiency, Global, Modeling, News & Events, Solid-State Lighting, Videos NASA Earth at Night Video Have you ever wondered what the ...

  12. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    in warm dense matter experiments with diffuse interface methods in the ALE-AMR code Wangyi Liu ∗ , John Barnard, Alex Friedman, Nathan Masters, Aaron Fisher, Velemir Mlaker, Alice Koniges, David Eder † August 4, 2011 Abstract In this paper we describe an implementation of a single-fluid inter- face model in the ALE-AMR code to simulate surface tension effects. The model does not require explicit information on the physical state of the two phases. The only change to the existing fluid

  13. A compound power-law model for volcanic eruptions: Implications for risk assessment of volcanism at the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1994-10-17

    Much of the ongoing debate on the use of nuclear power plants in U.S.A. centers on the safe disposal of the radioactive waste. Congress, aware of the importance of the waste issue, passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, requiring the federal government to develop a geologic repository for the permanent disposal of high level radioactive wastes from civilian nuclear power plants. The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) in 1983 to identify potential sites. When OCRWM had selected three potential sites to study, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one of those sites, Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada. For a site to be acceptable, theses studies must demonstrate that the site could comply with regulations and guidelines established by the federal agencies that will be responsible for licensing, regulating, and managing the waste facility. Advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which bear on the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is readily recognized as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety because of the possibility of direct disruption of a repository site by volcanism. In particular, basaltic volcanism is regarded as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. In this paper, statistical analysis of volcanic hazard assessment at the Yucca Mountain site is discussed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP).

  14. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sandia Co-Hosts "Climate Risk Forum: Bridging Climate Science and Actuarial Practice" This Fall event was a follow-up to a Climate and Environment Program Area meeting with the California governor's office in July. There, the California Insurance Commissioner, Dave Jones, recognized the value of Sandia's climate-impact modeling and analysis work, led by Stephen Conrad (manager of Sandia's Resilience and Regulatory Effects Dept.), and wanted to connect that [...] By

  15. Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways in a World with Agricultural Climate Impacts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Mueller, C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-02-28

    This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.

  16. Modeling

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    diffuse interface methods in ALE-AMR code with application in modeling NDCX-II experiments Wangyi Liu 1 , John Barnard 2 , Alex Friedman 2 , Nathan Masters 2 , Aaron Fisher 2 , Alice Koniges 2 , David Eder 2 1 LBNL, USA, 2 LLNL, USA This work was part of the Petascale Initiative in Computational Science at NERSC, supported by the Director, Office of Science, Advanced Scientific Computing Research, of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. This work was performed

  17. Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loth, E.; Tryggvason, G.; Tsuji, Y.; Elghobashi, S. E.; Crowe, Clayton T.; Berlemont, A.; Reeks, M.; Simonin, O.; Frank, Th; Onishi, Yasuo; Van Wachem, B.

    2005-09-01

    Slurry flows occur in many circumstances, including chemical manufacturing processes, pipeline transfer of coal, sand, and minerals; mud flows; and disposal of dredged materials. In this section we discuss slurry flow applications related to radioactive waste management. The Hanford tank waste solids and interstitial liquids will be mixed to form a slurry so it can be pumped out for retrieval and treatment. The waste is very complex chemically and physically. The ARIEL code is used to model the chemical interactions and fluid dynamics of the waste.

  18. Diffusion of low-carbon technologies and the feasibility of long-term climate targets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iyer, Gokul C.; Hultman, Nathan; Eom, Jiyong; McJeon, Haewon C.; Patel, Pralit L.; Clarke, Leon E.

    2015-01-01

    Stabilizing the global climate will require large-scale global deployment of low-carbon technologies. Even in the presence of aggressive climate policies, however, the diffusion of such technologies may be limited by several, institutional, behavioral, and social factors. In this paper, we review the literature on the sources of such diffusion constraints, and explore the potential implications of such non-economic constraints based on the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our analysis highlights that non-economic factors that limit technology deployment may have sizeable impacts on the feasibility and mitigation costs of achieving stringent stabilization targets. And such impacts are greatly amplified with major delays in serious climate policies. The results generally indicate that constraints on the expansions of CCS and renewables are more costly than those on nuclear or bioenergy, and jointly constraining these technologies leaves some scenarios infeasible.

  19. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Callaway, J.M.

    1982-08-01

    Alternative methods for quantifying the economic impacts associated with future increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ were examined. A literature search was undertaken, both to gain a better understanding of the ways in which CO/sub 2/ buildup could affect crop growth and to identify the different methods available for assessing the impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields. The second task involved identifying the scope of both the direct and indirect economic impacts that could occur as a result of CO/sub 2/-induced changes in crop yields. The third task then consisted of a comprehensive literature search to identify what types of economic models could be used effectively to assess the kinds of direct and indirect economic impacts that could conceivably occur as a result of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon national and multi-regional agricultural sector models, multi-country agricultural trade models, and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The fourth and final task of this research involved synthesizing the information gathered in the previous tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes related to agricultural production.

  20. Consequence Assessment

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-08-21

    This volume focuses on the process of performing timely initial assessments necessary to support critical first decisions and the continuous process of refining those initial assessments as more information and resources become available. Canceled by DOE G 151.1-4.

  1. Risk Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A set of issues that state and local governments should carefully consider, with the goal of helping them assess and anticipate solutions for some worst case or unfortunate case scenarios as they...

  2. Venetie, Alaska energy assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jensen, Richard Pearson; Baca, Micheal J.; Schenkman, Benjamin L.; Brainard, James Robert

    2013-07-01

    This report summarizes the Energy Assessment performed for Venetie, Alaska using the principals of an Energy Surety Microgrid (ESM) The report covers a brief overview of the principals of ESM, a site characterization of Venetie, a review of the consequence modeling, some preliminary recommendations, and a basic cost analysis.

  3. Integrated assessment briefs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    Integrated assessment can be used to evaluate and clarify resource management policy options and outcomes for decision makers. The defining characteristics of integrated assessment are (1) focus on providing information and analysis that can be understood and used by decision makers rather than for merely advancing understanding and (2) its multidisciplinary approach, using methods, styles of study, and considerations from a broader variety of technical areas than would typically characterize studies produced from a single disciplinary standpoint. Integrated assessment may combine scientific, social, economic, health, and environmental data and models. Integrated assessment requires bridging the gap between science and policy considerations. Because not everything can be valued using a single metric, such as a dollar value, the integrated assessment process also involves evaluating trade-offs among dissimilar attributes. Scientists at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recognized the importance and value of multidisciplinary approaches to solving environmental problems early on and have pioneered the development of tools and methods for integrated assessment over the past three decades. Major examples of ORNL`s experience in the development of its capabilities for integrated assessment are given.

  4. Environmental Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    728D Environmental Assessment Integrated Vegetation Management on the Hanford Site, Richland, Washington U.S. Department of Energy Richland Operations Office Richland, Washington 99352 Approved for Public Release; Further Disseminat ion Uillimited June 2011 DOE/EA-1728D June 2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 This page intentionally left blank. 7 8 U.S. Department of Energy DOE/EA-1728D Draft Environmental Assessment iii June 2011 CONTENTS 1 2 1.0 INTRODUCTION

  5. Environmental Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ASSESSMENT (EA) FOR THE RECONSTRUCTION OF THE SOUTH ACCESS ROAD (CR 802) IN SUPPORT OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT (WIPP) IN EDDY COUNTY, NEW MEXICO NEPA #: DOI-BLM-NM-P020-2010-0011-EA PREPARED IN COOPERATION WITH: DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY CARLSBAD FIELD OFFICE P. O. BOX 2078 CARLSBAD, NM 88221-2078 PREPARED BY: OWEN W. LOFTON SUPERVISORY MULTI RESOURCES SPECIALIST BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT CARLSBAD FIELD OFFICE 620 EAST GREENE CARLSBAD, NM 88220 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

  6. RADIOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT

    Office of Legacy Management (LM)

    ASSESSMENT and STABILIZATION' SCENARIOS PARRERSBURG,'W. VA. SITE FEBRUARY 1980 M. CARSON J. COFFMAN N. MANDELTORT, ! Division of Nuclear Service Operations Chem-Nuclear\ Systems, Inc. 240 Stoneridge Dr., Suite 100 Columbia, South Carolina 29210 Prepared for AMAX Specialty Hetals Corporation One Greenwich Plaza Greenwich, Connecticut 06830 During July' 1978, Chem-Nuclear Systems, Inc. (CNSI) began an assessment program for AMAX Specialty Metals Corp."(AMAX) u to locate, quantify, and

  7. Sleep Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sleep Assessment 1 | Thank you for taking the time to complete this extensive form. Sleep disturbances and/or fatigue are most often the result of many factors. In order to best treat your condition we need to understand your symptoms and history. Please bring your completed assessment form to your appointment. To schedule an appointment please call 505 844-HBES (4237). Name: Employee ID#: Date: Male Female Age: Health Plan : United BCBSNM Other: Referred by: Sleep and Health History In general,

  8. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Geologic-simulation model for a hypothetical site in the Columbia Plateau. Volume 2: results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Foley, M.G.; Petrie, G.M.; Baldwin, A.J.; Craig, R.G.

    1982-06-01

    This report contains the input data and computer results for the Geologic Simulation Model. This model is described in detail in the following report: Petrie, G.M., et. al. 1981. Geologic Simulation Model for a Hypothetical Site in the Columbia Plateau, Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, Washington. The Geologic Simulation Model is a quasi-deterministic process-response model which simulates, for a million years into the future, the development of the geologic and hydrologic systems of the ground-water basin containing the Pasco Basin. Effects of natural processes on the ground-water hydrologic system are modeled principally by rate equations. The combined effects and synergistic interactions of different processes are approximated by linear superposition of their effects during discrete time intervals in a stepwise-integration approach.

  9. The feasibility assessment of a U.S. natural gas production reporting system uniform production reporting model. Final report, July 1993--June 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1994-06-01

    The Uniform Production Reporting Model (UPRM) project was charged with identifying the best practices and procedures of the natural gas producing states related to the gathering, management, and dissemination of production data. It is recommended that the producing states begin the process of upgrading state systems using the concepts embodied in the UPRM model.

  10. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. ; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  11. State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative State and Regional Energy Risk Assessment Initiative The Office of...

  12. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State Energy Risk Profiles State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative - State...

  13. State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Mission Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative OE is leading a State Energy Risk...

  14. Program Sustainability Peer Exchange Call: Assessing Revenue...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... 6% customer Touch (on-line assessment) * N. Virginia (NOVA): Target Market - 245,220 homes - Model uses a series of conservative assessments leading to 2.3% Touch and 0.2% ...

  15. Enterprise Assessments Emergency Management Assessment of the...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Emergency Management Assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2016 Enterprise Assessments Emergency Management Assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April ...

  16. Evaluating sub-national building-energy efficiency policy options under uncertainty: Efficient sensitivity testing of alternative climate, technolgical, and socioeconomic futures in a regional intergrated-assessment model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Zhou, Yuyu; Rice, Jennie S.; Patel, Pralit L.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Kyle, G. Page; Kim, Son H.; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-05-01

    Improving the energy efficiency of the building stock, commercial equipment and household appliances can have a major impact on energy use, carbon emissions, and building services. Subnational regions such as U.S. states wish to increase their energy efficiency, reduce carbon emissions or adapt to climate change. Evaluating subnational policies to reduce energy use and emissions is difficult because of the uncertainties in socioeconomic factors, technology performance and cost, and energy and climate policies. Climate change may undercut such policies. Assessing these uncertainties can be a significant modeling and computation burden. As part of this uncertainty assessment, this paper demonstrates how a decision-focused sensitivity analysis strategy using fractional factorial methods can be applied to reveal the important drivers for detailed uncertainty analysis.

  17. Technology Assessment

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Roll to Roll (R2R) Processing 1 Technology Assessment 2 3 Contents 4 1. Introduction to the Technology/System ............................................................................................... 2 5 1.1. Introduction to R2R Processing..................................................................................................... 2 6 1.2. R2R Processing Mechanisms ......................................................................................................... 3 7 2.

  18. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  19. Assessing the CAM5 Physics Suite in the WRF-Chem Model: Implementation, Resolution Sensitivity, and a First Evaluation for a Regional Case Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Fast, Jerome D.; Easter, Richard C.; Gustafson, William I.; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Singh, Balwinder

    2014-05-06

    A suite of physical parameterizations (deep and shallow convection, turbulent boundary layer, aerosols, cloud microphysics, and cloud fraction) from the global climate model Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5) has been implemented in the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting with chemistry (WRF-Chem). A downscaling modeling framework with consistent physics has also been established in which both global and regional simulations use the same emissions and surface fluxes. The WRF-Chem model with the CAM5 physics suite is run at multiple horizontal resolutions over a domain encompassing the northern Pacific Ocean, northeast Asia, and northwest North America for April 2008 when the ARCTAS, ARCPAC, and ISDAC field campaigns took place. These simulations are evaluated against field campaign measurements, satellite retrievals, and ground-based observations, and are compared with simulations that use a set of common WRF-Chem Parameterizations. This manuscript describes the implementation of the CAM5 physics suite in WRF-Chem provides an overview of the modeling framework and an initial evaluation of the simulated meteorology, clouds, and aerosols, and quantifies the resolution dependence of the cloud and aerosol parameterizations. We demonstrate that some of the CAM5 biases, such as high estimates of cloud susceptibility to aerosols and the underestimation of aerosol concentrations in the Arctic, can be reduced simply by increasing horizontal resolution. We also show that the CAM5 physics suite performs similarly to a set of parameterizations commonly used in WRF-Chem, but produces higher ice and liquid water condensate amounts and near-surface black carbon concentration. Further evaluations that use other mesoscale model parameterizations and perform other case studies are needed to infer whether one parameterization consistently produces results more consistent with observations.

  20. Dormant storage reliability assessments-data based

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merren, G.T.

    1981-01-01

    A relatively large amount of data pertaining to the performance of certain electronic parts after long periods of dormant storage has been collected and analyzed by the Reliability Department of Sandia National Laboratories. The failure models used by Sandia are presented and reliability assessments for selected electronic parts derived from these models and the measured performance data are provided. These data based assessments are compared to similar assessments derived from handbook calculations using the general data and models provided in the handbooks.

  1. ASSESSMENT REPORT

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    & Wilcox Technical Services Pantex LLC During Fiscal Year 2013 Through June 30, 2014, Under Department of Energy Contract No. DE-AC54-00AL66620 OAI-V-16-04 February 2016 U.S. Department of Energy Office of Inspector General Office of Audits and Inspections Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 February 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM FOR THE MANAGER, NNSA PRODUCTION OFFICE FROM: David Sedillo, Director Western Audits Division Office of Inspector General SUBJECT: INFORMATION: Assessment Report on

  2. Endogenous Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Endogenous Assessment of the Capacity Value of Solar PV in Generation Investment Planning Studies Francisco D. Munoz, Member, IEEE, and Andrew D. Mills Abstract-There exist several different reliability- and approximation-based methods to determine the contribution of solar resources towards resource adequacy. However, most of these approaches require knowing in advance the installed capacities of both conventional and solar generators. This is a complication since generator capacities are

  3. Performance Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Performance assessment (PA) is defined in the United States by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations as a process to be used in estimating the long-term performance of deep geologic disposal sites for high-level and transuranic radioactive waste. Although specific regulatory requirements differ for individual projects (e.g., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant and the potential repository at Yucca Mountain), the overall approach to PA is

  4. National Geothermal Resource Assessment and Classification |...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    will enable lower riskcost deployment of conventional and EGS geothermal power. USGS is also supporting GTP input to DOE National Energy Modeling by providing resource assessment...

  5. Wind Resource Assessment | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Databases Global Renewable Energy Database Power Technologies Energy Data Book Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) System Advisor Model (SAM) Transparent Cost...

  6. Property-Assessed Clean Energy Programs

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The property-assessed clean energy (PACE) model is an innovative mechanism for financing energy efficiency and renewable energy improvements on private property. PACE programs allow local...

  7. ASSESSMENT REPORT

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Alliance for Sustainable Energy LLC During Fiscal Years 2012 and 2013 Under Department of Energy Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 OAI-V-16-06 March 2016 U.S. Department of Energy Office of Inspector General Office of Audits and Inspections Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 March 11, 2016 MEMORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR, GOLDEN FIELD OFFICE FROM: Jack Rouch Deputy Assistant Inspector General for Audits Office of Inspector General SUBJECT: INFORMATION: Assessment Report on "Audit Coverage

  8. ASSESSMENT REPORT

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Stanford University During Fiscal Years 2012 and 2013 Under Department of Energy Contract No. DE-AC02-76SF00515 OAS-V-15-04 September 2015 U.S. Department of Energy Office of Inspector General Office of Audits and Inspections Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 September 21, 2015 MEMORANDUM FOR THE MANAGER, SLAC SITE OFFICE FROM: David Sedillo, Director Western Audits Division Office of Inspector General SUBJECT: INFORMATION: Assessment Report: "Audit Coverage of Cost Allowability for

  9. ASSESSMENT REPORT

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Brookhaven Science Associates LLC During Fiscal Years 2012 and 2013 Under Department of Energy Contract No. DE-AC02-98CH10886 OAI-V-16-03 January 2016 U.S. Department of Energy Office of Inspector General Office of Audits and Inspections Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 January 19, 2016 MEMORANDUM FOR THE MANAGER, BROOKHAVEN SITE OFFICE FROM: Jack Rouch, Director Central Audits Division Office of Inspector General SUBJECT: INFORMATION: Assessment Report: "Audit Coverage of Cost

  10. ASSESSMENT REPORT

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ASSESSMENT REPORT Audit Coverage of Cost Allowability for National Security Technologies LLC During Fiscal Years 2012 Through 2014 Under Department of Energy Contract No. DE-AC52-06NA25946 OAI-V-16-07 April 2016 U.S. Department of Energy Office of Inspector General Office of Audits and Inspections Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 April 12, 2016 MEMORANDUM FOR THE MANAGER, NEVADA FIELD OFFICE FROM: David Sedillo Deputy Assistant Inspector General for Audits and Inspections Office of

  11. Macromodel for assessing residential concentrations of combustion-generated pollutants: Model development and preliminary predictions for CO, NO/sub 2/, and respirable suspended particles

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Traynor, G.W.; Aceti, J.C.; Apte, M.G.; Smith, B.V.; Green, L.L.; Smith-Reiser, A.; Novak, K.M.; Moses, D.O.

    1989-01-01

    A simulation model (also called a ''macromodel'') has been developed to predict residential air pollutant concentration distributions for specified populations. The model inputs include the market penetration of pollution sources, pollution source characteristics (e.g., emission rates, source usage rates), building characteristics (e.g., house volume, air exchange rates), and meteorological parameters (e.g., outside temperature). Four geographically distinct regions of the US have been modeled using Monte Carlo and deterministic simulation techniques. Single-source simulations were also conducted. The highest predicted CO and NO/sub 2/ residential concentrations were associated with the winter-time use of unvented gas and kerosene space heaters. The highest predicted respirable suspended particulate concentrations were associated with indoor cigarette smoking and the winter-time use of non-airtight wood stoves, radiant kerosene heaters, convective unvented gas space heaters, and oil forced-air furnaces. Future field studies in this area should (1) fill information gaps identified in this report, and (2) collect information on the macromodel input parameters to properly interpret the results. It is almost more important to measure the parameters that affect indoor concentration than it is to measure the concentrations themselves.

  12. Comprehensive Energy Assessment: EE and RE Project Optimization Modeling for United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) FEMP Technical Assistance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brigantic, Robert T.; Papatyi, Anthony F.; Perkins, Casey J.

    2010-09-30

    This report summarizes a study and corresponding model development conducted in support of the United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) as part of the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (ARRA). This research was aimed at developing a mathematical programming framework and accompanying optimization methodology in order to simultaneously evaluate energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) opportunities. Once developed, this research then demonstrated this methodology at a USPACOM installation - Camp H.M. Smith, Hawaii. We believe this is the first time such an integrated, joint EE and RE optimization methodology has been constructed and demonstrated.

  13. TH-E-BRF-03: A Multivariate Interaction Model for Assessment of Hippocampal Vascular Dose-Response and Early Prediction of Radiation-Induced Neurocognitive Dysfunction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farjam, R; Pramanik, P; Srinivasan, A; Chapman, C; Tsien, C; Lawrence, T; Cao, Y

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: Vascular injury could be a cause of hippocampal dysfunction leading to late neurocognitive decline in patients receiving brain radiotherapy (RT). Hence, our aim was to develop a multivariate interaction model for characterization of hippocampal vascular dose-response and early prediction of radiation-induced late neurocognitive impairments. Methods: 27 patients (17 males and 10 females, age 31–80 years) were enrolled in an IRB-approved prospective longitudinal study. All patients were diagnosed with a low-grade glioma or benign tumor and treated by 3-D conformal or intensity-modulated RT with a median dose of 54 Gy (50.4–59.4 Gy in 1.8− Gy fractions). Six DCE-MRI scans were performed from pre-RT to 18 months post-RT. DCE data were fitted to the modified Toft model to obtain the transfer constant of gadolinium influx from the intravascular space into the extravascular extracellular space, Ktrans, and the fraction of blood plasma volume, Vp. The hippocampus vascular property alterations after starting RT were characterized by changes in the hippocampal mean values of, μh(Ktrans)τ and μh(Vp)τ. The dose-response, Δμh(Ktrans/Vp)pre->τ, was modeled using a multivariate linear regression considering integrations of doses with age, sex, hippocampal laterality and presence of tumor/edema near a hippocampus. Finally, the early vascular dose-response in hippocampus was correlated with neurocognitive decline 6 and 18 months post-RT. Results: The μh(Ktrans) increased significantly from pre-RT to 1 month post-RT (p<0.0004). The multivariate model showed that the dose effect on Δμh(Ktrans)pre->1M post-RT was interacted with sex (p<0.0007) and age (p<0.00004), with the dose-response more pronounced in older females. Also, the vascular dose-response in the left hippocampus of females was significantly correlated with memory function decline at 6 (r = − 0.95, p<0.0006) and 18 (r = −0.88, p<0.02) months post-RT. Conclusion: The hippocampal vascular response to radiation could be sex and age dependent. The early hippocampal vascular dose-response could predict late neurocognitive dysfunction. (Support: NIH-RO1NS064973)

  14. Chevron: Refinery Identifies $4.4 Million in Annual Savings by Using Process Simulation Models to Perform Energy-Efficiency Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2004-05-01

    In an energy-efficiency study at its refinery near Salt Lake City, Utah, Chevron focused on light hydrocarbons processing. The company found it could recover hydrocarbons from its fuel gas system and sell them. By using process simulation models of special distillation columns and associated reboilers and condensers, Chevron could predict the performance of potential equipment configuration changes and process modifications. More than 25,000 MMBtu in natural gas could be saved annually if a debutanizer upgrade project and a new saturated gas plant project were completed. Together, these projects would save $4.4 million annually.

  15. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research supports industry, government, and academia by providing renewable energy resource measurements, models, maps, and support services. These resources are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research: Capabilities Facilities Research staff Data and resources. Resource assessment and forecasting research is primarily performed at

  16. Catalytic Two-Stage Liquefaction (CTSL{trademark}) process: Laboratory scale studies modelling and technical assessment. Final report, [October 1, 1988--June 30, 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Comolli, A.G.; Johanson, E.S.; Lee, L.K.; Popper, G.A.; Smith, T.O.

    1993-06-01

    Reported herein are the details and results of Laboratory-Scale experiments using sub-bituminous and bituminous coal concluded at Hydrocarbon Research, Inc., under DOE Contract No. AC22-88PCB8818 during the period October 1, 1988 to June 30, 1993. The work described in this report is primarily concerned with tests on a Laboratory Scale primarily using microautoclaves. Experiments were conducted evaluating coal, solvents, start-up oils, catalysts, thermal treatments, C0{sub 2} addition and sulfur compound effects. Other microautoclave tests are included in the companion topical reports for this contract, DE-88818-TOP-01 & 02 on Sub-Bituminous and Bituminous Bench-Scale and PDU activities. In addition to the Laboratory Scale Studies, kinetic data and modelling results from Bench-Scale and Microautoclave tests are interpreted and presented along with some economic updates and sensitivity studies.

  17. Coupling of Realistic Rate Estimates with Genomics for Assessing Contaminant Attenuation and Long-Term Plume Containment - Task 4: Modeling - Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robert C. Starr

    2005-10-31

    Trichloroethene (TCE), a common groundwater contaminant, can be degraded under certain conditions by microorganisms that occur naturally in the subsurface. TCE can be degraded under anaerobic conditions to less chlorinated compounds and ultimately into the non-chlorinated, non-hazardous end product, ethene, via anaerobic reductive dechlorination (ARD). ARD is widely recognized as a TCE degradation mechanism, and occurs in active groundwater remediation and can occur during monitored natural attenuation (MNA). MNA relies on natural processes, such as dispersion and degradation, to reduce contaminant concentrations to acceptable levels without active human intervention other than monitoring. TCE can also be biodegraded under aerobic conditions via cometabolism, in which microbial enzymes produced for other purposes fortuitously also react with TCE. In cometabolism, TCE is oxidized directly to non-hazardous products. Cometabolism as a TCE-degrading process under aerobic conditions is less well known than ARD. Natural attenuation is often discounted as a TCE remedial alternative in aerobic conditions based on the paradigm that TCE is biodegradable only under anaerobic conditions. In contrast to this paradigm, TCE was shown to degrade relative to conservative co-contaminants at an environmentally significant rate in a large (approximately 3 km long) TCE plume in aerobic groundwater at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and the degradation mechanism was shown to be cometabolism. MNA was selected as the remedy for most of this plume, resulting in a considerable cost savings relative to conventional remedial methods. To determine if cometabolism might be a viable remedy at other sites with TCE-contaminated aerobic groundwater, TCE plumes at Department of Energy (DOE) facilities were screened to evaluate whether TCE commonly degrades in aerobic groundwater, and if degradation rates are fast enough that natural attenuation could be a viable remedy. One hundred and twenty seven plumes at 24 DOE facilities were screened, and 14 plumes were selected for detailed examination. In the plumes selected for further study, spatial changes in the concentration of a conservative co-contaminant were used to compensate for the effects of mixing and temporal changes in TCE release from the contaminant source. Decline in TCE concentration along a flow path in excess of the co contaminant concentration decline was attributed to cometabolic degradation. This study indicated that TCE was degraded in 9 of the 14 plumes examined, with first order degradation half-lives ranging from about 1 to 12 years. TCE degradation in about two-thirds of the plumes examined suggests that cometabolism of TCE in aerobic groundwater is a common occurrence, in contrast to the conventional wisdom that TCE is recalcitrant in aerobic groundwater. The degradation half-life values calculated in this study are short enough that natural attenuation may be a viable remedy in many aerobic plumes. Computer modeling of groundwater flow and contaminant transport and degradation is frequently used to predict the evolution of groundwater plumes, and for evaluating natural attenuation and other remedial alternatives. An important aspect of a computer model is the mathematical approach for describing degradation kinetics. A common approach is to assume that degradation occurs as a first-order process. First order kinetics are easily incorporated into transport models and require only a single value (a degradation half-life) to describe reaction kinetics. The use of first order kinetics is justified in many cases because more elaborate kinetic equations often closely approximate first order kinetics under typical field conditions. A previous modeling study successfully simulated the INL TCE plume using first order degradation kinetics. TCE cometabolism is the result of TCE reacting with microbial enzymes that were produced for other purposes, such as oxidizing a growth substrate to obtain energy. Both TCE and the growth substrate compete for enzyme reactive sites, and the presence of

  18. Improving in vitro Sertoli cell/gonocyte co-culture model for assessing male reproductive toxicity: Lessons learned from comparisons of cytotoxicity versus genomic responses to phthalates

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu Xiaozhong; Hong, Sung Woo; Moreira, Estefania G.; Faustman, Elaine M.

    2009-09-15

    Gonocytes exist in the neonatal testis and represent a transient population of male germ-line stem cells. It has been shown that stem cell self-renewal and progeny production is probably controlled by the neighboring differentiated cells and extracellular matrix (ECM) in vivo known as niches. Recently, we developed an in vitro three-dimensional (3D) Sertoli cell/gonocyte co-culture (SGC) model with ECM overlay, which creates an in vivo-like niche and supports germ-line stem cell functioning within a 3D environment. In this study, we applied morphological and cytotoxicity evaluations, as well as microarray-based gene expression to examine the effects of different phthalate esters (PE) on this model. Known in vivo male developmentally toxic PEs (DTPE) and developmentally non-toxic PEs (DNTPE) were evaluated. We observed that DTPE induced significantly greater dose-dependent morphological changes, a decrease in cell viability and an increase in cytotoxicity compared to those treated with DNTPE. Moreover, the gene expression was more greatly altered by DTPE than by DNTPE and non-supervised cluster analysis allowed the discrimination of DTPE from the DNTPE. Our systems-based GO-Quant analysis showed significant alterations in the gene pathways involved in cell cycle, phosphate transport and apoptosis regulation with DTPE but not with DNTPE treatment. Disruptions of steroidogenesis related-gene expression such as Star, Cyp19a1, Hsd17b8, and Nr4a3 were observed in the DTPE group, but not in the DNTPE group. In summary, our observation on cell viability, cytotoxicity, and microarray-based gene expression analysis induced by PEs demonstrate that our in vitro 3D-SGC system mimicked in vivo responses for PEs and suggests that the 3D-SGC system might be useful in identifying developmental reproductive toxicants.

  19. Enterprise Assessments Emergency Management Assessment of the...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ... EAL Emergency Action Level ED Emergency Director ... Emergency Management Assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant ... assessment checklist, and the emergency ...

  20. Ecological Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological risk assessment is the appraisal of potential adverse effects of exposure to contaminants on plants and animals....

  1. Development of Science-Based Permitting Guidance for Geological Sequestration of CO2 in Deep Saline Aquifers Based on Modeling and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jean-Philippe Nicot; Renaud Bouroullec; Hugo Castellanos; Susan Hovorka; Srivatsan Lakshminarasimhan; Jeffrey Paine

    2006-06-30

    Underground carbon storage may become one of the solutions to address global warming. However, to have an impact, carbon storage must be done at a much larger scale than current CO{sub 2} injection operations for enhanced oil recovery. It must also include injection into saline aquifers. An important characteristic of CO{sub 2} is its strong buoyancy--storage must be guaranteed to be sufficiently permanent to satisfy the very reason that CO{sub 2} is injected. This long-term aspect (hundreds to thousands of years) is not currently captured in legislation, even if the U.S. has a relatively well-developed regulatory framework to handle carbon storage, especially in the operational short term. This report proposes a hierarchical approach to permitting in which the State/Federal Government is responsible for developing regional assessments, ranking potential sites (''General Permit'') and lessening the applicant's burden if the general area of the chosen site has been ranked more favorably. The general permit would involve determining in the regional sense structural (closed structures), stratigraphic (heterogeneity), and petrophysical (flow parameters such as residual saturation) controls on the long-term fate of geologically sequestered CO{sub 2}. The state-sponsored regional studies and the subsequent local study performed by the applicant will address the long-term risk of the particular site. It is felt that a performance-based approach rather than a prescriptive approach is the most appropriate framework in which to address public concerns. However, operational issues for each well (equivalent to the current underground injection control-UIC-program) could follow regulations currently in place. Area ranking will include an understanding of trapping modes. Capillary (due to residual saturation) and structural (due to local geological configuration) trappings are two of the four mechanisms (the other two are solubility and mineral trappings), which are the most relevant to the time scale of interest. The most likely pathways for leakage, if any, are wells and faults. We favor a defense-in-depth approach, in which storage permanence does not rely upon a primary seal only but assumes that any leak can be contained by geologic processes before impacting mineral resources, fresh ground water, or ground surface. We examined the Texas Gulf Coast as an example of an attractive target for carbon storage. Stacked sand-shale layers provide large potential storage volumes and defense-in-depth leakage protection. In the Texas Gulf Coast, the best way to achieve this goal is to establish the primary injection level below the total depth of most wells (>2,400 m-8,000 ft). In addition, most faults, particularly growth faults, present at the primary injection level do not reach the surface. A potential methodology, which includes an integrated approach comprising the whole chain of potential events from leakage from the primary site to atmospheric impacts, is also presented. It could be followed by the State/Federal Government, as well as by the operators.

  2. Explanation of Significant Differences Between Models used to Assess Groundwater Impacts for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste and Greater-Than-Class C-Like Waste Environmental Impact Statement (DOE/EIS-0375-D) and the

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Annette Schafer; Arthur S. Rood; A. Jeffrey Sondrup

    2011-08-01

    Models have been used to assess the groundwater impacts to support the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Disposal of Greater-Than-Class C (GTCC) Low-Level Radioactive Waste and GTCC-Like Waste (DOE-EIS 2011) for a facility sited at the Idaho National Laboratory and the Environmental Assessment for the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Project (INL 2011). Groundwater impacts are primarily a function of (1) location determining the geologic and hydrologic setting, (2) disposal facility configuration, and (3) radionuclide source, including waste form and release from the waste form. In reviewing the assumptions made between the model parameters for the two different groundwater impacts assessments, significant differences were identified. This report presents the two sets of model assumptions and discusses their origins and implications for resulting dose predictions. Given more similar model parameters, predicted doses would be commensurate.

  3. Agricultural production in the United States by county: a compilation of information from the 1974 census of agriculture for use in terrestrial food-chain transport and assessment models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shor, R.W.; Baes, C.F. III; Sharp, R.D.

    1982-01-01

    Terrestrial food-chain models that simulate the transport of environmentally released radionuclides incorporate parameters describing agricultural production and practice. Often a single set of default parameters, such as that listed in USNRC Regulatory Guide 1.109, is used in lieu of site-specific information. However, the geographical diversity of agricultural practice in the United States suggests the limitations of a single set of default parameters for assessment models. This report documents default parameters with a county-wide resolution based on analysis of the 1974 US Census of Agriculture for use in terrestrial food chain models. Data reported by county, together with state-based information from the US Department of Agriculture, Economic and Statistics Service, provided the basis for estimates of model input parameters. This report also describes these data bases, their limitations, and lists default parameters by county. Vegetable production is described for four categories: leafy vegetables; vegetables and fruits exposed to airborne material; vegetables, fruits, and nuts protected from airborne materials; and grains. Livestock feeds were analyzed in categories of hay, silage, pasture, and grains. Pasture consumption was estimated from cattle and sheep inventories, their feed requirements, and reported quantities of harvested forage. The results were compared with assumed yields of the pasture areas reported. In addition, non-vegetable food production estimates including milk, beef, pork, lamb, poultry, eggs, goat milk, and honey are described. The agricultural parameters and land use information - in all 47 items - are tabulated in four appendices for each of the 3067 counties of the US reported to the Census of Agriculture, excluding those in Hawaii and Alaska.

  4. Ozone Risk Assessment Utilities

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1999-08-10

    ORAMUS is a user-friendly, menu-driven software system that calculates and displays user-selected risk estimates for health effects attributable to short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. Inputs to the risk assessment are estimates of exposure to ozone and exposure-response relationships to produce overall risk estimates in the form of probability distributions. Three fundamental models are included: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. Exposure-response relationships are based on results of controlled human exposure studies. Exposure estimates aremore » based on the EPA''s probabilistic national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) exposure model, pNEM/Osub3, which simulates air quality associated with attainment of alternative NAAQS. Using ORAMUS, risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, air quality in 9 urban areas, 33 health endpoints, and 4 chronic health endpoints can be calculated.« less

  5. Minority energy assessment report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Teotia, A.P.S.; Poyer, D.A.; Lampley, L.; Anderson, J.L.

    1992-12-01

    The purpose of this research is to project household energy consumption, energy expenditure, and energy expenditure as share of income for five population groups from 1991 to 2009. The approach uses the Minority Energy Assessment Model (MEAM), developed by Argonne National Laboratory for the US Department of Energy's Office of Minority Economic Impact. The MEAM provides a framework that can be used to forecast regional energy consumption and energy expenditure for majority, black, Hispanic, poor, and nonpoor households. The forecasts of key macroeconomic and energy variables used as exogenous variables in the MEAM were obtained from the Data Resources, Inc., Macromodel and Energy Model. Generally, the projections of household energy consumption, expenditure, and energy expenditure as share of income vary across population groups and census regions.

  6. Enjebi Island dose assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robison, W.L.; Conrado, C.L.; Phillips, W.A.

    1987-07-01

    We have updeated the radiological dose assessment for Enjebi Island at Enewetak Atoll using data derived from analysis of food crops grown on Enjebi. This is a much more precise assessment of potential doses to people resettling Enjebi Island than the 1980 assessment in which there were no data available from food crops on Enjebi. Details of the methods and data used to evaluate each exposure pathway are presented. The terrestrial food chain is the most significant potential exposure pathway and /sup 137/Cs is the radionuclide responsible for most of the estimated dose over the next 50 y. The doses are calculated assuming a resettlement date of 1990. The average wholebody maximum annual estimated dose equivalent derived using our diet model is 166 mremy;the effective dose equivalent is 169 mremy. The estimated 30-, 50-, and 70-y integral whole-body dose equivalents are 3.5 rem, 5.1 rem, and 6.2 rem, respectively. Bone-marrow dose equivalents are only slightly higher than the whole-body estimates in each case. The bone-surface cells (endosteal cells) receive the highest dose, but they are a less sensitive cell population and are less sensitive to fatal cancer induction than whole body and bone marrow. The effective dose equivalents for 30, 50, and 70 y are 3.6 rem, 5.3 rem, and 6.6 rem, respectively. 79 refs., 17 figs., 24 tabs

  7. Facility Environmental Vulnerability Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Hoesen, S.D.

    2001-07-09

    From mid-April through the end of June 2001, a Facility Environmental Vulnerability Assessment (FEVA) was performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The primary goal of this FEVA was to establish an environmental vulnerability baseline at ORNL that could be used to support the Laboratory planning process and place environmental vulnerabilities in perspective. The information developed during the FEVA was intended to provide the basis for management to initiate immediate, near-term, and long-term actions to respond to the identified vulnerabilities. It was expected that further evaluation of the vulnerabilities identified during the FEVA could be carried out to support a more quantitative characterization of the sources, evaluation of contaminant pathways, and definition of risks. The FEVA was modeled after the Battelle-supported response to the problems identified at the High Flux Beam Reactor at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This FEVA report satisfies Corrective Action 3A1 contained in the Corrective Action Plan in Response to Independent Review of the High Flux Isotope Reactor Tritium Leak at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, submitted to the Department of Energy (DOE) ORNL Site Office Manager on April 16, 2001. This assessment successfully achieved its primary goal as defined by Laboratory management. The assessment team was able to develop information about sources and pathway analyses although the following factors impacted the team's ability to provide additional quantitative information: the complexity and scope of the facilities, infrastructure, and programs; the significantly degraded physical condition of the facilities and infrastructure; the large number of known environmental vulnerabilities; the scope of legacy contamination issues [not currently addressed in the Environmental Management (EM) Program]; the lack of facility process and environmental pathway analysis performed by the accountable line management or facility owner; and poor facility and infrastructure drawings. The assessment team believes that the information, experience, and insight gained through FEVA will help in the planning and prioritization of ongoing efforts to resolve environmental vulnerabilities at UT-Battelle--managed ORNL facilities.

  8. Autonomie Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Autonomie Model (Argonne National Laboratory) Objectives Perform simulations to assess the energy consumption and performance of advanced component and powertrain technologies in a vehicle system context. Key Attributes & Strengths Developed over the past 15 years, Autonomie has been validated using component and vehicle test data, providing confidence in the results. Thus, the tool is widely accepted by the industry and has been licensed to more than 150 organizations worldwide. The model

  9. Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2008-12-01

    DRQAT (Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool) is the tool for assessing demand response saving potentials for large commercial buildings. This tool is based on EnergyPlus simulations of prototypical buildings and HVAC equipment. The opportunities for demand reduction and cost savings with building demand responsive controls vary tremendously with building type and location. The assessment tools will predict the energy and demand savings, the economic savings, and the thermal comfor impact for various demand responsive strategies.more » Users of the tools will be asked to enter the basic building information such as types, square footage, building envelope, orientation, utility schedule, etc. The assessment tools will then use the prototypical simulation models to calculate the energy and demand reduction potential under certain demand responsive strategies, such as precooling, zonal temperature set up, and chilled water loop and air loop set points adjustment.« less

  10. Model assessment of protective barrier designs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fayer, M.J.; Conbere, W.; Heller, P.R.; Gee, G.W.

    1985-11-01

    A protective barrier is being considered for use at the Hanford site to enhance the isolation of previously disposed radioactive wastes from infiltrating water, and plant and animal intrusion. This study is part of a research and development effort to design barriers and evaluate their performance in preventing drainage. A fine-textured soil (the Composite) was located on the Hanford site in sufficient quantity for use as the top layer of the protective barrier. A number of simulations were performed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory to analyze different designs of the barrier using the Composite soil as well as the finer-textured Ritzville silt loam and a slightly coarser soil (Coarse). Design variations included two rainfall rates (16.0 and 30.1 cm/y), the presence of plants, gravel mixed into the surface of the topsoil, an impermeable boundary under the topsoil, and moving the waste form from 10 to 20 m from the barrier edge. The final decision to use barriers for enhanced isolation of previously disposed wastes will be subject to decisions resulting from the completion of the Hanford Defense Waste Environmental Impact Statement, which addresses disposal of Hanford defense high-level and transuranic wastes. The one-dimensional simulation results indicate that each of the three soils, when used as the top layer of the protective barrier, can prevent drainage provided plants are present. Gravel amendments to the upper 30 cm of soil (without plants) reduced evaporation and allowed more water to drain.

  11. Sandia Energy - Resource Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Resource Assessment Home Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Water Power Resource Assessment Resource AssessmentAshley Otero2016-01-05T19:06:04+00:00 Characterizing wave...

  12. ORISE: Hazard Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    internal and external radiation dose assessments. Our capabililities include: Linkage of exposure data to site rosters Assessment of retrospective exposures Preparation of...

  13. Northwest Energy Market Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Northwest Energy Market Assessment Pages Northwest-Energy-Market-Assessment Sign In About | Careers | Contact | Investors | bpa.gov Search News & Us Expand News & Us Projects &...

  14. Human Reliability Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Reliability Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us ... Twitter Google + Vimeo GovDelivery SlideShare Human Reliability Assessment HomeStationary ...

  15. Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Davies, Evan; Eom, Jiyong

    2013-03-06

    This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections, and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of peoples annual incomes.

  16. Risk assessment in international operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-11-15

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently.

  17. National Geothermal Resource Assessment and Classification

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This work will enable lower risk/cost deployment of conventional and EGS geothermal power. USGS is also supporting GTP input to DOE National Energy Modeling by providing resource assessment data by geothermal region as input to GTP supply curves.

  18. D&D and Risk Assessment Tools

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    ORISE and PNNL both developed tools to assist in the risk assessment and planning of D&D activities. PNNL developed a Risk D&D tool, a rapid prototype computerbased model, to evaluate...

  19. Survey of Biomass Resource Assessments and Assessment Capabilities...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Biomass Resource Assessments and Assessment Capabilities in APEC Economies Jump to: navigation, search Logo: Survey of Biomass Resource Assessments and Assessment Capabilities in...

  20. Sandia Energy - Solar Resource Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Solar Resource Assessment Home Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Photovoltaics Solar Resource Assessment Solar Resource AssessmentTara...

  1. Portsmouth Needs Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Needs Assessment for former Oak Ridge K-25, Paducah, and Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant production workers.

  2. ORISE: Hazard Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hazard Assessments The Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) analyzes accumulated data to identify potential workplace hazards to which individuals or groups of workers may be exposed. ORISE assesses both chemical and radiation exposures, and conducts both internal and external radiation dose assessments. Our capabililities include: Linkage of exposure data to site rosters Assessment of retrospective exposures Preparation of assessment protocols Design and testing of dose

  3. Distributed road assessment system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Beer, N. Reginald; Paglieroni, David W

    2014-03-25

    A system that detects damage on or below the surface of a paved structure or pavement is provided. A distributed road assessment system includes road assessment pods and a road assessment server. Each road assessment pod includes a ground-penetrating radar antenna array and a detection system that detects road damage from the return signals as the vehicle on which the pod is mounted travels down a road. Each road assessment pod transmits to the road assessment server occurrence information describing each occurrence of road damage that is newly detected on a current scan of a road. The road assessment server maintains a road damage database of occurrence information describing the previously detected occurrences of road damage. After the road assessment server receives occurrence information for newly detected occurrences of road damage for a portion of a road, the road assessment server determines which newly detected occurrences correspond to which previously detected occurrences of road damage.

  4. Life-Cycle Assessment of Energy and Environmental Impacts of...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    a more detailed assessment of the LED manufacturing process and used these findings to ... A total of 22 samples, representing 11 different models, were tested to determine whether ...

  5. ARM - Publications: Science Team Meeting Documents: An Assessment...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    An Assessment of Clear-sky Radiative Damping Rates and Their Implications for Climate Feedbacks Soden, Brian UMRSMAS The range of uncertainty in model predictions of climate...

  6. Sandia Energy - DHS Mulls Updates to Chemical Site Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DHS Mulls Updates to Chemical Site Risk Assessments Home Infrastructure Security Infrastructure Assurance Facilities News NISAC News & Events Research & Capabilities Modeling...

  7. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  8. NREL: Energy Analysis - Models and Tools

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    for hydrogen, with this geospatial and temporal infrastructure analysis model. Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) Model Use NREL's geospatial toolkit to visualize ...

  9. A Resilient Condition Assessment Monitoring System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Humberto Garcia; Wen-Chiao Lin; Semyon M. Meerkov

    2012-08-01

    An architecture and supporting methods are presented for the implementation of a resilient condition assessment monitoring system that can adaptively accommodate both cyber and physical anomalies to a monitored system under observation. In particular, the architecture includes three layers: information, assessment, and sensor selection. The information layer estimates probability distributions of process variables based on sensor measurements and assessments of the quality of sensor data. Based on these estimates, the assessment layer then employs probabilistic reasoning methods to assess the plant health. The sensor selection layer selects sensors so that assessments of the plant condition can be made within desired time periods. Resilient features of the developed system are then illustrated by simulations of a simplified power plant model, where a large portion of the sensors are under attack.

  10. Caraustar Industries Energy Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2010-06-25

    This plant-wide assessment case study is about commissioned energy assessments by the U.S. Department of Energy Industrial Technologies Program at two of Caraustar's recycled paperboard mills.

  11. Home Energy Assessments

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A home energy assessment, also known as a home energy audit, is the first step to assess how much energy your home consumes and to evaluate what measures you can take to make your home more energy...

  12. Model Fire Protection Program

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    To facilitate conformance with its fire safety directives and the implementation of a comprehensive fire protection program, DOE has developed a number of "model" program documents. These include a comprehensive model fire protection program, model fire hazards analyses and assessments, fire protection system inspection and testing procedures, and related material.

  13. Impact-GMI Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2007-03-22

    IMPACT-GMI is an atmospheric chemical transport model designed to run on massively parallel computers. It is designed to model trace pollutants in the atmosphere. It includes models for emission, chemistry and deposition of pollutants. It can be used to assess air quality and its impact on future climate change.

  14. 2012Modeling_Factsheet.indd

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    simulation code (VERA) to model the formation of deposits on reactor fuel cladding and mechanical fretting within fuel assemblies to assess the potential for power uprates and...

  15. Ecological Risk Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Community, Environment » Environmental Stewardship » Environmental Protection » Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological risk assessment is the appraisal of potential adverse effects of exposure to contaminants on plants and animals. Contact Environmental Communication & Public Involvement P.O. Box 1663 MS M996 Los Alamos, NM 87545 (505) 667-0216 Email The ECORISK Database is a screening tool that helps scientists evaluate impacts on LANL's ecology. Assessing our

  16. Management Assessment and Independent Assessment Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2001-05-31

    The revision to this Guide reflects current assessment practices, international standards, and changes in the Department of Energy expectations. Cancels DOE G 414.1-1. Canceled by DOE G 414.1-1B.

  17. CRAD, Self-Assessment Program Assessment Plan

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Management should ensure that effective management and independent self-assessments are being conducted periodically by technically qualified personnel. [10 CFR 830.122, subpart A & DOE O 414.1A, Quality Assurance

  18. Assessing the assessments: Pharmaceuticals in the environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Enick, O.V. Moore, M.M.

    2007-11-15

    The relatively new issue of pharmaceutical contamination of the environment offers the opportunity to explore the application of values to the construction, communication and management of risk. The still-developing regulatory policies regarding environmental contamination with pharmaceuticals provide fertile ground for the introduction of values into the definition and management of risk. In this report, we summarize the current knowledge regarding pharmaceutical contamination of the environment and discuss specific attributes of pharmaceuticals that require special consideration. We then present an analysis showing that if values are incorporated into assessing, characterizing and managing risk, the results of risk assessments will more accurately reflect the needs of various stakeholders. Originating from an acknowledgement of the inherent uncertainty and value-laden nature of risk assessment, the precautionary principle (and later, the multi-criteria, integrated risk assessment), provides a direction for further research and policy development.

  19. Risk Assessment & Management Information

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    NRC - A Proposed Risk Management Regulatory Framework, April 2012 Risk Assessment Technical Experts Working Group (RWG) web page DOE Standard on Development and Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in DOE Nuclear Safety Applications (draft), December 2010 Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation Workshop on Risk Assessment and Safety Decision Making Under Uncertainty

  20. Nuclear Nonproliferation Ontology Assessment Team Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Strasburg, Jana D.; Hohimer, Ryan E.

    2012-01-01

    Final Report for the NA22 Simulations, Algorithm and Modeling (SAM) Ontology Assessment Team's efforts from FY09-FY11. The Ontology Assessment Team began in May 2009 and concluded in September 2011. During this two-year time frame, the Ontology Assessment team had two objectives: (1) Assessing the utility of knowledge representation and semantic technologies for addressing nuclear nonproliferation challenges; and (2) Developing ontological support tools that would provide a framework for integrating across the Simulation, Algorithm and Modeling (SAM) program. The SAM Program was going through a large assessment and strategic planning effort during this time and as a result, the relative importance of these two objectives changed, altering the focus of the Ontology Assessment Team. In the end, the team conducted an assessment of the state of art, created an annotated bibliography, and developed a series of ontological support tools, demonstrations and presentations. A total of more than 35 individuals from 12 different research institutions participated in the Ontology Assessment Team. These included subject matter experts in several nuclear nonproliferation-related domains as well as experts in semantic technologies. Despite the diverse backgrounds and perspectives, the Ontology Assessment team functioned very well together and aspects could serve as a model for future inter-laboratory collaborations and working groups. While the team encountered several challenges and learned many lessons along the way, the Ontology Assessment effort was ultimately a success that led to several multi-lab research projects and opened up a new area of scientific exploration within the Office of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Verification.

  1. China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yin, Xiang; Chen, Wenying; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Kim, Son H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Yu, Sha; Kyle, G. Page

    2015-07-01

    ABSTRACT Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.

  2. Lessons about vulnerability assessments.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnston, R. G.

    2004-01-01

    The Vulnerability Assessment Team (VAT) at Los Alamos National Laboratory believes that physical security can only be optimized through the use of effective vulnerability assessments. As a result of conducting vulnerability assessments on hundreds of different security devices and systems in the last few years, we have identified some of the attributes of effective assessments. These, along with our recommendations and observations about vulnerability assessments, are summarized in this paper. While our work has primarily involved physical security (in contrast to, for example, computer, network, or information security), our experiences may have applicability to other types of security as well.

  3. Home Energy Assessments

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Dispenza, Jason

    2013-05-29

    A home energy assessment, also known as a home energy audit, is the first step to assess how much energy your home consumes and to evaluate what measures you can take to make your home more energy efficient. An assessment will show you problems that may, when corrected, save you significant amounts of money over time. This video shows some of the ways that a contractor may test your home during an assessment, and helps you understand how an assessment can help you move toward energy savings. Find out more at: http://www.energysavers.gov/your_home/energy_audits/index.cfm/mytopic=11160

  4. A Life-Cycle Assessment Comparing Select Gas-to-Liquid Fuels...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... VOC's, CO ) for many fuel pathways. * Process Industries Modeling System (PIMS) Model - ... for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and Other Environmental Impacts (TRACI ...

  5. Enterprise Assessments Follow-up Assessment of Safety Culture...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessment of Safety Culture at the Hanford Site Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant - June 2015 Enterprise Assessments Follow-up Assessment of Safety Culture at the Hanford...

  6. Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources for the United States |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources for the United States Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources for the United States This report summarizes the offshore wind resource potential for the contiguous United States and Hawaii as of May 2009. The development of this assessment has evolved over multiple stages as new regional meso-scale assessments became available, new validation data was obtained, and better modeling capabilities were implemented. It is

  7. Quality Procedure - Management Assessment and Self-Assessment | Department

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Energy Management Assessment and Self-Assessment Quality Procedure - Management Assessment and Self-Assessment This procedure establishes the roles, responsibilities, requirements, and process for conducting Environmental Management (EM) Office of Standards and Quality Assurance management assessments and self-assessments. Effective management assessments and self-assessments are built on self-evaluation, work process analysis, clear communication with management, and honest feedback that

  8. TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ASSESSMENT JANUARY 2015 -A CHECKPOINT ALONG A CHALLENGING JOURNEY DOE/NETL-2015/1710 U.S. Department of Energy 2014 TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT-CLEAN COAL RESEARCH PROGRAM 2 2014 TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT-CLEAN COAL RESEARCH PROGRAM Office of Fossil Energy | National Energy Technology Laboratory DISCLAIMER 3 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor

  9. TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DECEMBER 2012 Pathway for readying the next generation of affordable clean energy technology -Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) 2012 TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT -OVERVIEW 2 2012 TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT-OVERVIEW 2012 TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT-OVERVIEW 3 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any

  10. SCADA Vulnerability Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... SCADA Images Since 1999, Sandia has conducted numerous assessments of SCADA and process control systems in hydroelectric dams; water treatment systems; electric power transmission, ...

  11. Advances in Performance Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    safety of geologic repositories for radioactive waste disposal called "performance assessment", PA. The discipline of PA continues to advance within the Defense Waste Management...

  12. Hoisting & Rigging Assessment Form

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

      Assess the institutional and department/division hoisting and rigging (including forklift, overhead cranes small hoists, and mobile cranes) requirements, policies, procedures, and work practices...

  13. Environmental Risk Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    PPPO subject-matter experts analyze possible environmental hazards and provide risk assessment information to help inform various environmental decision-making processes.

  14. Ensemble Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Addis, R.P.

    2002-06-24

    Prognostic atmospheric dispersion models are used to generate consequence assessments, which assist decision-makers in the event of a release from a nuclear facility. Differences in the forecast wind fields generated by various meteorological agencies, differences in the transport and diffusion models, as well as differences in the way these models treat the release source term, result in differences in the resulting plumes. Even dispersion models using the same wind fields may produce substantially different plumes. This talk will address how ensemble techniques may be used to enable atmospheric modelers to provide decision-makers with a more realistic understanding of how both the atmosphere and the models behave.

  15. Preliminary melter performance assessment report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Elliott, M.L.; Eyler, L.L.; Mahoney, L.A.; Cooper, M.F.; Whitney, L.D.; Shafer, P.J.

    1994-08-01

    The Melter Performance Assessment activity, a component of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory`s (PNL) Vitrification Technology Development (PVTD) effort, was designed to determine the impact of noble metals on the operational life of the reference Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP) melter. The melter performance assessment consisted of several activities, including a literature review of all work done with noble metals in glass, gradient furnace testing to study the behavior of noble metals during the melting process, research-scale and engineering-scale melter testing to evaluate effects of noble metals on melter operation, and computer modeling that used the experimental data to predict effects of noble metals on the full-scale melter. Feed used in these tests simulated neutralized current acid waste (NCAW) feed. This report summarizes the results of the melter performance assessment and predicts the lifetime of the HWVP melter. It should be noted that this work was conducted before the recent Tri-Party Agreement changes, so the reference melter referred to here is the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) melter design.

  16. Biomass Gasification Technology Assessment: Consolidated Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Worley, M.; Yale, J.

    2012-11-01

    Harris Group Inc. (HGI) was commissioned by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to assess gasification and tar reforming technologies. Specifically, the assessments focused on gasification and tar reforming technologies that are capable of producing a syngas suitable for further treatment and conversion to liquid fuels. HGI gathered sufficient information to analyze three gasification and tar reforming systems. This report summarizes the equipment, general arrangement of the equipment, operating characteristics, and operating severity for each technology. The order of magnitude capital cost estimates are supported by a basis-of-estimate write-up, which is also included in this report. The report also includes Microsoft Excel workbook models, which can be used to design and price the systems. The models can be used to analyze various operating capacities and pressures. Each model produces a material balance, equipment list, capital cost estimate, equipment drawings and preliminary general arrangement drawings. Example outputs of each model are included in the Appendices.

  17. NREL: International Activities - Assessments and Tools

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assessments and Tools NREL has developed several tools, models, and resources that enable energy project leaders around the world to evaluate opportunities for deploying renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies on a global, regional, local, or project basis. NREL has also developed a broader suite of energy analysis tools beyond those highlighted here, which are used most extensively in our international programs. Many of these tools can be accessed via the Models and Tools page.

  18. NERSC Operational Assessment Review

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NERSC Operational Assessment Review Agenda and Logistics Home » Events » HPC Workshops » NERSC Operational Assessment Review NERSC Operational Assessment Review By invitation only. Agenda TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 16 8am - Coffee and Pastries 8:15am: Welcome and logistics - Katie Antypas 8:20am: Welcome and DOE charge - Dave Goodwin 8:30am - 9:15am:Year in Review - Sudip Dosanjh 9:30am - 10:30am: User Results - Katie Antypas 10:45 - 11:am: Break 11:00-11:45: Science and Strategic Results - Richard

  19. Energy Assessments | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Assessments Energy Assessments PDF icon Unveiling the Implementation Guide (October 11, 2011) PDF icon webcast_2009-0409_common_recommendations.pdf PDF icon webcast_2009-0219_small_medium_assessment_benefits.pdf PDF icon webcast_2009-0212_large plant_assessments.pdf PDF icon webcast_2008-1106_small_medium_assessments.pdf PDF icon large_assessments_webcast_10-16-08.pdf More Documents & Publications Unveiling the Implementation Guide Industrial Energy Efficiency Assessments IAC

  20. TRAC-PF1 independent assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knight, T.D.; Metzger, V.B.

    1985-10-01

    This report documents the Los Alamos results of the second assessment phase, independent assessment for TRAC-PF1. We documented the results of the developmental assessment for TRAC-PF1 in an earlier report. This report described calculations run with the released versions of TRAC-PF1. We analyzed separate-effects tests in the Semiscale facility to investigate natural-circulation and reflux cooling. We analyzed integral tests from the Semiscale and the Loss-of-Fluid Test facilities to explore the small- and intermediate-break loss-of-coolnt-accident (LOCA) capability and the non-LOCA capability. We also analyzed the loss-of-feedwater transient in the Crystal River plant. The results show reasonably good agreement with the data, but indicate that improvements are required for the critical-flow model and the interphasic-condensation model. 38 refs., 224 figs., 19 tabs.

  1. Technical Assessment Team Report

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Technical Assessment Team (TAT) is an independent team of technical experts that evaluated the mechanisms and chemical reactions contributing to the failure of a waste drum at the Waste...

  2. Assessing Renewable Energy Options

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Federal agencies should assess renewable energy options for each specific project when integrating renewable energy in new building construction or major renovations. This section covers the preliminary screening, screening, feasibility study, and sizing and designing systems phases.

  3. Technology Readiness Assessment Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-09-15

    The Guide assists individuals and teams involved in conducting Technology Readiness Assessments (TRAs) and developing Technology Maturation Plans (TMPs) for the DOE capital asset projects subject to DOE O 413.3B. Supersedes DOE G 413.3-4.

  4. Towards sustainability assessment follow-up

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morrison-Saunders, Angus; North-West University ; Pope, Jenny; Integral Sustainability; Curtin University ; Bond, Alan; University of East Anglia ; Retief, Francois

    2014-02-15

    This paper conceptualises what sustainability assessment follow-up might entail for three models of sustainability assessment: EIA-driven integrated assessment, objectives-led integrated assessment and the contribution to sustainability model. The first two are characterised by proponent monitoring and evaluation of individual impacts and indicators while the latter takes a holistic view based around focused sustainability criteria relevant to the context. The implications of three sustainability challenges on follow-up are also examined: contested time horizons and value changes, trade-offs, and interdisciplinarity. We conclude that in order to meet these challenges some form of adaptive follow-up is necessary and that the contribution to sustainability approach is the best approach. -- Highlights: • We explore sustainability follow-up for three different sustainability models. • Long-time frames require adaptive follow-up and are a key follow-up challenge. • Other key challenges include interdisciplinarity, and trade-offs. • Sustainability follow-up should be a direction of travel and not an outcome. • Only the follow-up for contribution to sustainability model addresses sustainability challenges sufficiently.

  5. Communicating Performance Assessments Results - 13609

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Layton, Mark

    2013-07-01

    The F-Area Tank Farms (FTF) and H-Area Tank Farm (HTF) are owned by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and operated by Savannah River Remediation LLC (SRR), Liquid Waste Operations contractor at DOE's Savannah River Site (SRS). The FTF and HTF are active radioactive waste storage and treatment facilities consisting of 51 carbon steel waste tanks and ancillary equipment such as transfer lines, evaporators and pump tanks. Performance Assessments (PAs) for each Tank Farm have been prepared to support the eventual closure of the underground radioactive waste tanks and ancillary equipment. PAs provide the technical bases and results to be used in subsequent documents to demonstrate compliance with the pertinent requirements for final closure of the Tank Farms. The Tank Farms are subject to a number of regulatory requirements. The State regulates Tank Farm operations through an industrial waste water permit and through a Federal Facility Agreement approved by the State, DOE and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Closure documentation will include State-approved Tank Farm Closure Plans and tank-specific closure modules utilizing information from the PAs. For this reason, the State of South Carolina and the EPA must be involved in the performance assessment review process. The residual material remaining after tank cleaning is also subject to reclassification prior to closure via a waste determination pursuant to Section 3116 of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act of Fiscal Year 2005. PAs are performance-based, risk-informed analyses of the fate and transport of FTF and HTF residual wastes following final closure of the Tank Farms. Since the PAs serve as the primary risk assessment tools in evaluating readiness for closure, it is vital that PA conclusions be communicated effectively. In the course of developing the FTF and HTF PAs, several lessons learned have emerged regarding communicating PA results. When communicating PA results it is important to stress that the primary goal of the PA results is to provide risk understanding, recognizing the magnitude of risk and identifying the conceptual model decisions and critical assumptions that most impact the results. Conceptual models that describe reality using simplified, mathematical approaches, and their roles in arriving at the PA results, must also be communicated. When presenting PA results, evaluations will typically be focused on a single baseline (or Base Case) to provide a foundation for discussion. The PA results are supplemented by other studies (alternate configurations, uncertainty analyses, and sensitivity analyses) which provide a breadth of modeling to supplement the Base Case. The suite of information offered by the various modeling cases and studies provides confidence that the overall risk is understood along with the underlying parameters and conditions that contribute to risk. (author)

  6. River Protection Project information systems assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    JOHNSON, A.L.

    1999-07-28

    The Information Systems Assessment Report documents the results from assessing the Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) Hanford Data Integrator 2000 (HANDI 2000) system, Business Management System (BMS) and Work Management System phases (WMS), with respect to the System Engineering Capability Assessment Model (CAM). The assessment was performed in accordance with the expectations stated in the fiscal year (FY) 1999 Performance Agreement 7.1.1, item (2) which reads, ''Provide an assessment report on the selected Integrated Information System by July 31, 1999.'' This report assesses the BMS and WMS as implemented and planned for the River Protection Project (RPP). The systems implementation is being performed under the PHMC HANDI 2000 information system project. The project began in FY 1998 with the BMS, proceeded in FY 1999 with the Master Equipment List portion of the WMS, and will continue the WMS implementation as funding provides. This report constitutes an interim quality assessment providing information necessary for planning RPP's information systems activities. To avoid confusion, HANDI 2000 will be used when referring to the entire system, encompassing both the BMS and WMS. A graphical depiction of the system is shown in Figure 2-1 of this report.

  7. Regional Wave Field Modeling and Array Effects

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    1C Marine and Hydrokinetic Instrumentation, Measurement & Computer Modeling Workshop - Broomfield, CO July 9 th , 2012 Regional Wave Field Modeling and Array Effects Outline  Overview of SNL's Large-Scale Wave and WEC Array Modeling Activities * WEC Farm Modeling on Roadmap * SNL Current Modeling Capabilities * SNL WEC Farm Model Tool Development WEC Farm Modeling  WEC Farms * Currently focused on improving large scale wave models for environmental assessments WEC Farm Modeling: WEC

  8. PRIVACY IMPACT ASSESSMENT: Office

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Office of Information Resources - FOIAXpress Department of Energy Privacy Impact Assessment (PIA) Guidance is provided in the template. See DOE Order 206.1, Department of Energy Privacy Program, Appendix A, Privacy Impact Assessments, for requirements and additional guidance for conducting a PIA: http://www.directives.doe.gov/pdfs/doe/doetext/neword/206/02061.pdf Please complete electronically: no hand-written submissions will be accepted. This template may not be modified. MODULE 1- PRIVACY

  9. PRIVACY IMPACT ASSESSMENT: Office

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Office of Workforce Development for Teachers and Scientists Department of Energy Privacy Impact Assessment (PIA) Guidance is provided in the template. See DOE Order 206.1, Department of Energy Privacy Program, Appendix A, Privacy Impact Assessments, for requirements and additional guidance for conducting a PIA: http://www.directives.doe.gov/pdfs/doe/doetextineword/206/o2061.pdf Please complete electronically: no hand-written submissions will be accepted. This template may not be modified. MODULE

  10. DOEEA-0984 Environmental Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    DOEEA-0984 Environmental Assessment Environmental Assessment for the Deactivation of the N Reactor Facilities U.S. Department of Energy Richland, Washington May 1995 \ lR4DEMARK DISCLAIMER Reference herein to any specific wmmercial product, process. M m M c e by trade name, uademark, manufacturer. or otherwise, does not necessariiy collbuNte M imply ~ f s endorsement, rewmmendation. or favoring by the Unrted States Government or any agency thereof or I u Contractors M subcontractors Ths repon

  11. Pumping System Assessment Tool

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Pumping System Assessment Tool (PSAT) is a free online software tool to help industrial users assess the efficiency of pumping system operations. PSAT uses achievable pump performance data from Hydraulic Institute standards and motor performance data from the MotorMaster+ database to calculate potential energy and associated cost savings. The tool also enables users to save and retrieve log files, default values, and system curves for sharing analyses with other users.

  12. Vulnerability Assessment for Cascading Failures in Electric Power Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baldick, R.; Chowdhury, Badrul; Dobson, Ian; Dong, Zhao Yang; Gou, Bei; Hawkins, David L.; Huang, Zhenyu; Joung, Manho; Kim, Janghoon; Kirschen, Daniel; Lee, Stephen; Li, Fangxing; Li, Juan; Li, Zuyi; Liu, Chen-Ching; Luo, Xiaochuan; Mili, Lamine; Miller, Stephen; Nakayama, Marvin; Papic, Milorad; Podmore, Robin; Rossmaier, John; Schneider, Kevin P.; Sun, Hongbin; Sun, Kai; Wang, David; Wu, Zhigang; Yao, Liangzhong; Zhang, Pei; Zhang, Wenjie; Zhang, Xiaoping

    2008-09-10

    Cascading failures present severe threats to power grid security, and thus vulnerability assessment of power grids is of significant importance. Focusing on analytic methods, this paper reviews the state of the art of vulnerability assessment methods in the context of cascading failures in three categories: steady-state modeling based analysis; dynamic modeling analysis; and non-traditional modeling approaches. The impact of emerging technologies including phasor technology, high-performance computing techniques, and visualization techniques on the vulnerability assessment of cascading failures is then addressed, and future research directions are presented.

  13. UZ Colloid Transport Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    M. McGraw

    2000-04-13

    The UZ Colloid Transport model development plan states that the objective of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the development of a model for simulating unsaturated colloid transport. This objective includes the following: (1) use of a process level model to evaluate the potential mechanisms for colloid transport at Yucca Mountain; (2) Provide ranges of parameters for significant colloid transport processes to Performance Assessment (PA) for the unsaturated zone (UZ); (3) Provide a basis for development of an abstracted model for use in PA calculations.

  14. Enterprise Assessments Emergency Management Assessment of the Waste

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2016 | Department of Energy Emergency Management Assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2016 Enterprise Assessments Emergency Management Assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2016 April 2016 Emergency Management Assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2016 The Office of Emergency Management Assessments, within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) independent Office of Enterprise Assessments (EA), conducted an

  15. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  16. Bioenergy and the importance of land use policy in a carbon-constrained world

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, James A.; Wise, Marshall A.

    2010-06-01

    Policies aimed at limiting anthropogenic climate change would result in significant transformations of the energy and land-use systems. However, increasing the demand for bioenergy could have a tremendous impact on land use, and can result in land clearing and deforestation. Wise et al. (2009a,b) analyzed an idealized policy to limit the indirect land use change emissions from bioenergy. The policy, while effective, would be difficult, if not impossible, to implement in the real world. In this paper, we consider several different land use policies that deviate from this first-best, using the Joint Global Change Research Institute’s Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Specifically, these new frameworks are (1) a policy that focuses on just the above-ground or vegetative terrestrial carbon rather than the total carbon, (2) policies that focus exclusively on incentivizing and protecting forestland, and (3) policies that apply an economic penalty on the use of biomass as a proxy to limit indirect land use change emissions. For each policy, we examine its impact on land use, land-use change emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, agricultural supply, and food prices.

  17. Assessment of methods for evaluating adequacy of physical protection systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chapman, L.D.

    1980-01-01

    Generally, the scope of a safeguards evaluation model can efficiently address one of two issues: (1) global safeguards effectiveness or (2) vulnerability analysis for individual scenarios. A brief description of the variety of models developed in these areas is discussed. Current generation models are described along with an assessment of their utility and a brief look at future techniques for evaluation will be noted.

  18. Cookoff modeling of a WIPP waste drum (68660) | Department of...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    This document corresponds to Appendix D: Modeling Integrated Summary Report of the Technical Assessment Team Report. PDF icon Cookoff modeling of a WIPP waste drum (68660) More ...

  19. Mechanical Modeling of a WIPP Drum Under Pressure | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    This document corresponds to Appendix D: Modeling Integrated Summary Report of the Technical Assessment Team Report. PDF icon Mechanical Modeling of a WIPP Drum Under Pressure More ...

  20. Project Profile: Predictive Physico-Chemical Modeling of Intrinsic...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    will be developing a physics-based computational degradation model to assess the ... conditions, material properties and device geometry into lifetime performancecost models. ...

  1. Performance Assessment | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessment Performance Assessment Performance Assessment The Office of Project Management Oversight and Assessments (PM) provides a monthly assessment of DOE's portfolio of capital assets projects, which is summarized in the monthly Project Dashboard report. The current portfolio consists of 34 active projects with established scope, schedule, and cost performance baselines. Based on current performance, projects that are expected to meet their performance baseline are assessed as GREEN,

  2. Small Wind Site Assessment Guidelines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olsen, Tim; Preus, Robert

    2015-09-01

    Site assessment for small wind energy systems is one of the key factors in the successful installation, operation, and performance of a small wind turbine. A proper site assessment is a difficult process that includes wind resource assessment and the evaluation of site characteristics. These guidelines address many of the relevant parts of a site assessment with an emphasis on wind resource assessment, using methods other than on-site data collection and creating a small wind site assessment report.

  3. Information technology resources assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stevens, D.F.

    1992-01-01

    This year`s Information Technology Resources Assessment (ITRA) is something of a departure from traditional practice. Past assessments have concentrated on developments in fundamental technology, particularly with respect to hardware. They form an impressive chronicle of decreasing cycle times, increasing densities, decreasing costs (or, equivalently, increasing capacity and capability per dollar spent), and new system architectures, with a leavening of operating systems and languages. Past assessments have aimed -- and succeeded -- at putting information technology squarely in the spotlight; by contrast, in the first part of this assessment, we would like to move it to the background, and encourage the reader to reflect less on the continuing technological miracles of miniaturization in space and time and more on the second- and third-order implications of some possible workplace applications of these miracles. This Information Technology Resources Assessment is intended to provide a sense of technological direction for planners in projecting the hardware, software, and human resources necessary to support the diverse IT requirements of the various components of the DOE community. It is also intended to provide a sense of our new understanding of the place of IT in our organizations.

  4. Information technology resources assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stevens, D.F.

    1992-01-01

    This year's Information Technology Resources Assessment (ITRA) is something of a departure from traditional practice. Past assessments have concentrated on developments in fundamental technology, particularly with respect to hardware. They form an impressive chronicle of decreasing cycle times, increasing densities, decreasing costs (or, equivalently, increasing capacity and capability per dollar spent), and new system architectures, with a leavening of operating systems and languages. Past assessments have aimed -- and succeeded -- at putting information technology squarely in the spotlight; by contrast, in the first part of this assessment, we would like to move it to the background, and encourage the reader to reflect less on the continuing technological miracles of miniaturization in space and time and more on the second- and third-order implications of some possible workplace applications of these miracles. This Information Technology Resources Assessment is intended to provide a sense of technological direction for planners in projecting the hardware, software, and human resources necessary to support the diverse IT requirements of the various components of the DOE community. It is also intended to provide a sense of our new understanding of the place of IT in our organizations.

  5. Assess Oportunities | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Assess Oportunities Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities DevelopBAU Stage 4:...

  6. Assessment Documents | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessment, Y-12 National Security Complex - June 2012 Assessment of Nuclear Safety Culture at the Y-12 National Security Complex Uranium Processing Facility Project July 9,...

  7. Improving Risk Assessment to Support State Energy Infrastructure Decision

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Making | Department of Energy Improving Risk Assessment to Support State Energy Infrastructure Decision Making Improving Risk Assessment to Support State Energy Infrastructure Decision Making May 22, 2015 - 3:28pm Addthis Alice Lippert Alice Lippert Senior Technical Advisor to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Energy Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis The Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) is leading a State Energy Risk Assessment Initiative to help States better

  8. POLICY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH USING SIMULATION TO ASSESS ENVIRONMENTAL

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    IMPACTS (Other) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Other: POLICY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH USING SIMULATION TO ASSESS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS Citation Details In-Document Search Title: POLICY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH USING SIMULATION TO ASSESS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS This report examines the relationship between simulation-based science and judicial assessments of simulations or models supporting evaluations of environmental harms or risks, considering both how it exists currently and

  9. Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources for the United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schwartz, M.; Heimiller, D.; Haymes, S.; Musial, W.

    2010-06-01

    This report summarizes the offshore wind resource potential for the contiguous United States and Hawaii as of May 2009. The development of this assessment has evolved over multiple stages as new regional meso-scale assessments became available, new validation data was obtained, and better modeling capabilities were implemented. It is expected that further updates to the current assessment will be made in future reports.

  10. Windows technology assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Baron, J.J.

    1995-10-01

    This assessment estimates that energy loss through windows is approximately 15 percent of all the energy used for space heating and cooling in residential and commercial buildings in New York State. The rule of thumb for the nation as a whole is about 25 percent. The difference may reflect a traditional assumption of single-pane windows while this assessment analyzed installed window types in the region. Based on the often-quoted assumption, in the United States some 3.5 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of primary energy, costing some $20 billion, is annually consumed as a result of energy lost through windows. According to this assessment, in New York State, the energy lost due to heat loss through windows is approximately 80 trillion Btu at an annual cost of approximately $1 billion.

  11. Webinar April 26: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    April 26: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar April 26: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment ...

  12. Resource handbook on transportation risk assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen, S. Y.; Biwer, B. M.; Monette, F. A.; Environmental Assessment; SNL; BAPL; USOE; Battelle Memorial Inst.

    2003-01-01

    This resource handbook contains useful information to streamline radioactive material transportation risk assessments for National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents prepared for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) programs. Streamlining refers to instituting steps that can increase the efficiency of future assessments, reduce costs, and promote increased quality and consistency across the DOE complex. This handbook takes advantage of the wealth of information developed through decades of DOE's NEPA experience. It contains a review of historical assessments; a description of comprehensive and generally acceptable transportation risk assessment methodology (i.e., models); and a compilation of supporting data, parameters, and generally accepted assumptions. This handbook also includes a discussion paper that addresses cumulative impacts (Appendix A). The discussion paper illustrates the evolving and sometimes unresolved issues encountered in transportation risk assessment. Other topics, such as sabotage, environmental justice, and human factors, may be addressed in the future. This resource document was developed as the first primary reference book providing useful information for conducting transportation risk assessments for radioactive material in the NEPA context.

  13. Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Report summarizing the results of seven years of numerical model simulations of ocean currents in the United States and the database created with that data. PDF icon Assessment of ...

  14. Assessment of Automated Measurement and Verification (M&V) Methods

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Granderson, Jessica; Touzani, Samir; Custodio, Claudine; Sohn, Michael; Fernandes, Samuel; Jump, David

    2015-07-01

    This report documents the application of a general statistical methodology to assess the accuracy of baseline energy models, focusing on its application to Measurement and Verification (M&V) of whole-building energy savings.

  15. Assessment of boreal forest historical C dynamics in Yukon River...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    this study we applied a large-scale ecosystem model that included dynamics of organic soil horizons and soil organic matter characteristics of multiple pools to assess forest C...

  16. Performance Assessment Institute-NV

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lombardo, Joesph

    2012-12-31

    The National Supercomputing Center for Energy and the Environment’s intention is to purchase a multi-purpose computer cluster in support of the Performance Assessment Institute (PA Institute). The PA Institute will serve as a research consortium located in Las Vegas Nevada with membership that includes: national laboratories, universities, industry partners, and domestic and international governments. This center will provide a one-of-a-kind centralized facility for the accumulation of information for use by Institutions of Higher Learning, the U.S. Government, and Regulatory Agencies and approved users. This initiative will enhance and extend High Performance Computing (HPC) resources in Nevada to support critical national and international needs in "scientific confirmation". The PA Institute will be promoted as the leading Modeling, Learning and Research Center worldwide. The program proposes to utilize the existing supercomputing capabilities and alliances of the University of Nevada Las Vegas as a base, and to extend these resource and capabilities through a collaborative relationship with its membership. The PA Institute will provide an academic setting for interactive sharing, learning, mentoring and monitoring of multi-disciplinary performance assessment and performance confirmation information. The role of the PA Institute is to facilitate research, knowledge-increase, and knowledge-sharing among users.

  17. Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Capability Maturity Model...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Capability Maturity Model (ES-C2M2) Version 1.1, which allows electric utilities and grid operators to assess their cybersecurity...

  18. TRISO Fuel Performance: Modeling, Integration into Mainstream...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    experimental work by assessing what material properties in TRISO fuel performance modeling are most in need of improvement. A recommended thorium-fueled hybrid LIFE engine design ...

  19. SCADA Vulnerability Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Vulnerability Assessments - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs

  20. Technology Readiness Assessment Guide

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    2011-09-15

    This document was developed to assist individuals and teams that will be involved in conducting Technology Readiness Assessments (TRAs) and developing Technology Maturation Plans (TMPs) for the Department of Energy (DOE) capital acquisition assets subjects to DOE O 413.3B.

  1. PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT TEMPLATE

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Document presents a template for the preliminary assessment (PA) that energy service companies (ESCOs) are required to conduct in an energy savings performance contract (ESPC) project under the U.S.Department of Energy's indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity ESPC contract.

  2. Condition Assessment Information System

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2002-09-16

    CAIS2000 records, tracks and cost maintenance deficiencies associated with condition assessments of real property assets. Cost information is available for 39,000 items in the currenht RS Means, Facilities Construction Manual. These costs can, in turn, be rolled by by asset to produce the summary condition of an asset or site.

  3. Ultrasonic pipe assessment

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Thomas, Graham H.; Morrow, Valerie L.; Levie, Harold; Kane, Ronald J.; Brown, Albert E.

    2003-12-23

    An ultrasonic pipe or other structure assessment system includes an ultrasonic transducer positioned proximate the pipe or other structure. A fluid connection between the ultrasonic transducer and the pipe or other structure is produced. The ultrasonic transducer is moved relative to the pipe or other structure.

  4. Industrial Energy Efficiency Assessments | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Industrial Energy Efficiency Assessments Industrial Energy Efficiency Assessments Details about the Industrial Energy Efficiency Assessments program and its implementation in ...

  5. Industrial Energy Efficiency Assessments | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Industrial Energy Efficiency Assessments Industrial Energy Efficiency Assessments Details about the Industrial Energy Efficiency Assessments program and its implementation in...

  6. Community Readiness Assessments | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Readiness Assessments Community Readiness Assessments Better Buildings Residential Network Program Sustainability Peer Exchange Call Series: Community Readiness Assessments, Call ...

  7. Criticality Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    A. Alsaed

    2004-09-14

    The ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2003) presents the methodology for evaluating potential criticality situations in the monitored geologic repository. As stated in the referenced Topical Report, the detailed methodology for performing the disposal criticality analyses will be documented in model reports. Many of the models developed in support of the Topical Report differ from the definition of models as given in the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management procedure AP-SIII.10Q, ''Models'', in that they are procedural, rather than mathematical. These model reports document the detailed methodology necessary to implement the approach presented in the Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report and provide calculations utilizing the methodology. Thus, the governing procedure for this type of report is AP-3.12Q, ''Design Calculations and Analyses''. The ''Criticality Model'' is of this latter type, providing a process evaluating the criticality potential of in-package and external configurations. The purpose of this analysis is to layout the process for calculating the criticality potential for various in-package and external configurations and to calculate lower-bound tolerance limit (LBTL) values and determine range of applicability (ROA) parameters. The LBTL calculations and the ROA determinations are performed using selected benchmark experiments that are applicable to various waste forms and various in-package and external configurations. The waste forms considered in this calculation are pressurized water reactor (PWR), boiling water reactor (BWR), Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), Training Research Isotope General Atomic (TRIGA), Enrico Fermi, Shippingport pressurized water reactor, Shippingport light water breeder reactor (LWBR), N-Reactor, Melt and Dilute, and Fort Saint Vrain Reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF). The scope of this analysis is to document the criticality computational method. The criticality computational method will be used for evaluating the criticality potential of configurations of fissionable materials (in-package and external to the waste package) within the repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for all waste packages/waste forms. The criticality computational method is also applicable to preclosure configurations. The criticality computational method is a component of the methodology presented in ''Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' (YMP 2003). How the criticality computational method fits in the overall disposal criticality analysis methodology is illustrated in Figure 1 (YMP 2003, Figure 3). This calculation will not provide direct input to the total system performance assessment for license application. It is to be used as necessary to determine the criticality potential of configuration classes as determined by the configuration probability analysis of the configuration generator model (BSC 2003a).

  8. UAIEE and Industrial Assessment Centers

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    55-62011| Industrial Assessment Centers * Started in 1976 * Currently 26 Centers across the US * Almost...

  9. Oak Ridge Reservation Needs Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Needs Assessment for former Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Y-12 Nuclear Security Complex production workers.

  10. EA-1391: Final Environmental Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Environmental Assessment for Presidential Permit Applications for Baja California, Inc. and Sempra Energy Resources

  11. EA-1207: Final Environmental Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Pit Disassembly and Conversion Demonstration Environmental Assessment and Research and Development Activities

  12. Engineering and Techno-Economic Assessment | Concentrating Solar Power |

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL Engineering and Techno-Economic Assessment The concentrating solar power (CSP) program at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) measures and models the solar resource, develops and uses computer models for engineering design and modeling of system performance and technology deployment, and investigates the environmental benefits and impacts of utility-scale solar power. Learn more about the capabilities discussed below by contacting the CSP Research Staff. System Advisor Model

  13. Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1993-05-13

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to residential demand-side management programs and two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic impact on various population groups.

  14. Bio Risk Assessment Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2004-07-22

    The Biosecurity Risk Assessment Tool (BRAT) is a new type of computer application for the screening-level assessment of risk to dairy operations. BRAT for Dairies is designed to be intuitive and easy to use. Users enter basic data-property address, feed management, employee population, and so on - into the interface. Using these data and rules found in an expert system. BRAT for Dairies consults appropriate sections of its database. The expert system determines the riskmore » implications of the basic data, e.g. diseases are closely tied to pen location with respect to the outside world, When the analysis is complete, BRAT for Dairies evaluates and allocates the risk for each hazard, ranks the risks, and displays the results graphically.« less

  15. Risk Identification and Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Identification and Assessment [Sections in brackets are for instructions; these should be deleted or replaced with specifics in the template.] Subsystem Title or Section within Subsystem [In the first column, using short bullets, fill in "what can go wrong," or a brief description of a potential benefit from a program or action. Add additional rows as necessary. Fill in the other columns using the rating guidelines in the attached reference pages.] |Risk|Probability|Impact|Risk

  16. Technology Readiness Assessment Report

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Technology Readiness Assessment Report March 2010 U U . . S S . . D D e e p p a a r r t t m m e e n n t t o o f f E E n n e e r r g g y y O O f f f f i i c c e e o o f f E E n n v ...

  17. Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced Nuclear

  18. Risk and Safety Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    and Safety Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced

  19. Bridge Condition Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Condition and Performance Assessment Background How bridges respond to extreme loading conditions, such as during high winds and severe storms, and to the effects of aging, such as corrosion- and fatigue-induced cracking, is a major concern for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The FHWA is working to ensure that highway structures are safe and reliable under all service conditions, including potential structural, environmental, and human-generated threats. Role of High-Performance

  20. Photovoltaic technology assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, C.E.

    1981-01-01

    After a brief review of the history of photovoltaic devices and a discussion of the cost goals set for photovoltaic modules, the status of photovoltaic technology is assessed. Included are discussions of: current applications, present industrial production, low-cost silicon production techniques, energy payback periods for solar cells, advanced materials research and development, concentrator systems, balance-of-system components. Also discussed are some nontechnical aspects, including foreign markets, US government program approach, and industry attitudes and approaches. (LEW)

  1. Security Risk Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Security Risk Assessment - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced

  2. Wind Resource Assessment of Gujarat (India)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Draxl, C.; Purkayastha, A.; Parker, Z.

    2014-07-01

    India is one of the largest wind energy markets in the world. In 1986 Gujarat was the first Indian state to install a wind power project. In February 2013, the installed wind capacity in Gujarat was 3,093 MW. Due to the uncertainty around existing wind energy assessments in India, this analysis uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the wind at current hub heights for one year to provide more precise estimates of wind resources in Gujarat. The WRF model allows for accurate simulations of winds near the surface and at heights important for wind energy purposes. While previous resource assessments published wind power density, we focus on average wind speeds, which can be converted to wind power densities by the user with methods of their choice. The wind resource estimates in this study show regions with average annual wind speeds of more than 8 m/s.

  3. Waste minimization assessment procedure

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kellythorne, L.L. )

    1993-01-01

    Perry Nuclear Power Plant began developing a waste minimization plan early in 1991. In March of 1991 the plan was documented following a similar format to that described in the EPA Waste Minimization Opportunity Assessment Manual. Initial implementation involved obtaining management's commitment to support a waste minimization effort. The primary assessment goal was to identify all hazardous waste streams and to evaluate those streams for minimization opportunities. As implementation of the plan proceeded, non-hazardous waste streams routinely generated in large volumes were also evaluated for minimization opportunities. The next step included collection of process and facility data which would be useful in helping the facility accomplish its assessment goals. This paper describes the resources that were used and which were most valuable in identifying both the hazardous and non-hazardous waste streams that existed on site. For each material identified as a waste stream, additional information regarding the materials use, manufacturer, EPA hazardous waste number and DOT hazard class was also gathered. Once waste streams were evaluated for potential source reduction, recycling, re-use, re-sale, or burning for heat recovery, with disposal as the last viable alternative.

  4. Fossil plant self assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bozgo, R.H.; Maguire, B.A.

    1996-07-01

    The increasingly competitive environment of the electric utility business is focusing utilities attention on reducing the cost of electricity generation. By using benchmark indicators, gains are being sought in plant material condition with corresponding improvements in operating efficiency and capacity factor as well as reductions in Operating and Maintenance (O&M) costs. In designing a process for improvement, Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc. (Con Edison) plant managers were asked to review and approve objectives and criteria for Fossil Plant Operations. The program methods included optimizing work processes (including material condition, maintenance programs, work control systems, and personnel performance); team building techniques to foster personnel buy-in of the process; and long term cultural change to insure an ongoing continuous improvement process with measurable results. The program begins with a self assessment of each plant based upon the approved Objectives and Criteria. The Criteria and Review Approaches (CRAs) are established by senior management and the review team. The criteria cover Management, Operations, Maintenance, and Support Functions including Technical Support, Training and Qualification, Environmental Compliance, Chemistry, and Safety and Emergency Preparedness. The Assessment is followed by a review of corrective action plans and an interim corrective action review. Annual Assessments are planned to ensure continuous improvement. Emphasis is placed on progress made in maintenance at the fossil stations.

  5. Risk Assessment in the RI/FS process, and derivation of cleanup...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    - Conceptual Site Model, fate and transport, remedial action objectives Human Health Risk Assessment * Multiple "scenarios" were evaluated, each with different exposure assumptions...

  6. Statistical assessment of Monte Carlo distributional tallies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kiedrowski, Brian C; Solomon, Clell J

    2010-12-09

    Four tests are developed to assess the statistical reliability of distributional or mesh tallies. To this end, the relative variance density function is developed and its moments are studied using simplified, non-transport models. The statistical tests are performed upon the results of MCNP calculations of three different transport test problems and appear to show that the tests are appropriate indicators of global statistical quality.

  7. Model Documentation for the MiniCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brenkert, Antoinette L.; Smith, Steven J.; Kim, Son H.; Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2003-07-17

    The MiniCAM, short for the Mini-Climate Assessment Model, is an integrated assessment model of moderate complexity focused on energy and agriculture sectors. The model produces emissions of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) and other radiatively important substances such as sulfur dioxide. Through incorporation of the simple climate model MAGICC, the consequences of these emissions for climate change and sea-level rise can be examined. The MiniCAM is designed to be fast and flexible.

  8. Enterprise Assessments Operational Awareness Record for the Assessment...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Site K-West Annex Facility (OAR EA-HANFORD-2015-09-09) Enterprise Assessments Operational Awareness Record for the Assessment of Construction at the Hanford Site K-West Annex ...

  9. The effect of climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.

    2013-08-01

    A changing climate will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate on heating and cooling demands must take into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time - including, for example, movements from rural to urban environments in developing countries - but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself and the growth and movements of populations over time. In this study, we explored the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days for both a reference (no-policy) scenario and a climate mitigation scenario built from 0.5 degree latitude by 0.5 degree longitude resolution output from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three gridded scenarios of population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China were then explored by using the heating and cooling degree days results as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Across the climate models and population distribution scenarios, the results indicate that unabated climate change would cause total final energy consumption to decrease modestly in both U.S. and China buildings by the end of the century, as decreased heating consumption is more than balanced by increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, the results also indicate that when indirect emissions from the power sector are also taken into account, climate change may have negligible effect on building sector CO2 emissions in the two countries. The variation in results due to variation of population distribution is noticeably smaller than variation due to the use of different climate models.

  10. Enterprise Assessments Assessment of Selected Conduct of Operations

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Processes at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2016 | Department of Energy Selected Conduct of Operations Processes at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2016 Enterprise Assessments Assessment of Selected Conduct of Operations Processes at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2016 April 2016 Assessment of Selected Conduct of Operations Processes at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant - April 2016 The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environment, Safety and Health Assessments,

  11. Energy Assessment Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Missouri Industrial Assessment Center shares its experience providing energy assessments to local industry.

  12. Fort Drum integrated resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dixon, D.R.; Armstrong, P.R.; Brodrick, J.R.; Daellenbach, K.K.; Di Massa, F.V.; Keller, J.M.; Richman, E.E.; Sullivan, G.P.; Wahlstrom, R.R.

    1992-12-01

    The US Army Forces Command (FORSCOM) has tasked the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as the lead laboratory supporting the US Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program's mission to identify, evaluate, and assist in acquiring all cost-effective energy projects at Fort Drum. This is a model program PNL is designing for federal customers served by the Niagara Mohawk Power Company. It will identify and evaluate all electric and fossil fuel cost-effective energy projects; develop a schedule at each installation for project acquisition considering project type, size, timing, and capital requirements, as well as energy and dollar savings; and secure 100% of the financing required to implement electric energy efficiency projects from Niagara Mohawk and have Niagara Mohawk procure the necessary contractors to perform detailed audits and install the technologies. This report documents the assessment of baseline energy use at one of Niagara Mohawk's primary federal facilities, the FORSCOM Fort Drum facility located near Watertown, New York. It is a companion report to Volume 1, the Executive Summary, and Volume 3, the Resource Assessment. This analysis examines the characteristics of electric, gas, oil, propane, coal, and purchased thermal capacity use for fiscal year (FY) 1990. It records energy-use intensities for the facilities at Fort Drum by building type and energy end use. It also breaks down building energy consumption by fuel type, energy end use, and building type. A complete energy consumption reconciliation is presented that includes the accounting of all energy use among buildings, utilities, central systems, and applicable losses.

  13. Griffiss AFB integrated resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dixon, D.R.; Armstrong, P.R.; Keller, J.M.

    1993-02-01

    The US Air Force Air Combat Command has tasked the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as the lead laboratory supporting the US Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program's (FEMP) mission to identify, evaluate, and assist in acquiring all cost-effective energy projects at Griffiss Air Force Base (AFB). This is a model program PNL is designing for federal customers served by the Niagara Mohawk Power Company (Niagara Mohawk). It will (1) identify and evaluate all electric cost-effective energy projects; (2) develop a schedule at each installation for project acquisition considering project type, size, timing, and capital requirements, as well as energy and dollar savings; and (3) secure 100% of the financing required to implement electric energy efficiency projects from Niagara Mohawk and have Niagara Mohawk procure the necessary contractors to perform detailed audits and install the technologies. This report documents the assessment of baseline energy use at one of Niagara Mohawk's primary federal facilities, Griffiss AFB, an Air Combat Command facility located near Rome, New York. It is a companion report to Volume 1, the Executive Summary, and Volume 3, the Electric Resource Assessment. The analysis examines the characteristics of electric, gas, oil, propane, coal, and purchased thermal capacity use for fiscal year (FY) 1990. The results include energy-use intensities for the facilities at Griffiss AFB by building type and electric energy end use. A complete electric energy consumption reconciliation is presented that accounts for the distribution of all major electric energy uses and losses among buildings, utilities, and central systems.

  14. The future of FRMAC assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Laiche, Thomas P.

    2010-03-01

    FRMAC was born out of circumstances 25 years ago when 17 federal agencies descended on the states with good intention during the Three-Mile Island nuclear power plant incident. At that time it quickly became evident that a better way was needed to support state and local governments in their time of emergency and recovery process. FRMAC's single voice of Federal support coordinates the multiple agencies that respond to a radiological event. Over the years, FRMAC has exercised, evaluated, and honed its ability to quickly respond to the needs of our communities. As the times have changed, FRMAC has expanded its focus from nuclear power plant incidents, to threats of a terrorist radiological dispersal device (RDD), to the unthinkable - an Improvised nuclear device (IND). And just as having the right tools are part of any trade, FRMAC's tool set has and is evolving to meet contemporary challenges - not just to improve the time it takes to collect data and assess the situation, but to provide a quality and comprehensive product that supports a stressed decision maker, responsible for the protection of the public. Innovations in the movement of data and information have changed our everyday lives. So too, FRMAC is capitalizing on industry innovations to improve the flow of information: from the early predictive models, to streamlining the process of getting data out of the field; to improving the time it takes to get assessed products in to the hands of the decision makers. FRMAC is focusing on the future through the digital age of electronic data processing. Public protective action and dose avoidance is the challenge.

  15. Tank farms hazards assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Broz, R.E.

    1994-09-30

    Hanford contractors are writing new facility specific emergency procedures in response to new and revised US Department of Energy (DOE) Orders on emergency preparedness. Emergency procedures are required for each Hanford facility that has the potential to exceed the criteria for the lowest level emergency, an Alert. The set includes: (1) a facility specific procedure on Recognition and Classification of Emergencies, (2) area procedures on Initial Emergency Response and, (3) an area procedure on Protective Action Guidance. The first steps in developing these procedures are to identify the hazards at each facility, identify the conditions that could release the hazardous material, and calculate the consequences of the releases. These steps are called a Hazards Assessment. The final product is a document that is similar in some respects to a Safety Analysis Report (SAR). The document could br produced in a month for a simple facility but could take much longer for a complex facility. Hanford has both types of facilities. A strategy has been adopted to permit completion of the first version of the new emergency procedures before all the facility hazards Assessments are complete. The procedures will initially be based on input from a task group for each facility. This strategy will but improved emergency procedures in place sooner and therefore enhance Hanford emergency preparedness. The purpose of this document is to summarize the applicable information contained within the Waste Tank Facility ``Interim Safety Basis Document, WHC-SD-WM-ISB-001`` as a resource, since the SARs covering Waste Tank Operations are not current in all cases. This hazards assessment serves to collect, organize, document and present the information utilized during the determination process.

  16. Appendix PA: Performance Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Appendix PA-2014 Performance Assessment United States Department of Energy Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Carlsbad Field Office Carlsbad, New Mexico Compliance Recertification Application 2014 Appendix PA Table of Contents PA-1.0 Introduction PA-1.1 Changes since the CRA-2009 PA PA-1.1.1 Replacement of Option D with the ROMPCS PA-1.1.2 Additional Mined Volume in the Repository North End PA-1.1.3 Refinement to the Probability of Encountering Pressurized Brine

  17. Industrial Process Heating - Technology Assessment

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Industrial Process Heating - Technology Assessment 1 2 Contents 3 4 1. Introduction to the Technology/System ............................................................................................... 2 5 1.1. Industrial Process Heating Overview ............................................................................................ 2 6 2. Technology Assessment and Potential ................................................................................................. 6 7 2.1. Status

  18. Agenda: Preliminary Assessment Development Teleconference

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Document serves as a standard agenda for the teleconference to discuss the in-progress preliminary assessment.

  19. EA-0372: Final Environmental Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Products: Refrigerators, Furnaces and Television Sets including Environmental Assessment Regulatory Impact Analysis

  20. EA-1906: Draft Environmental Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Draft Environmental Assessment for Operations, Upgrades, and Consolidation at the Western Command Site, New Mexico, April 2012

  1. Computer Security Risk Assessment

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1992-02-11

    LAVA/CS (LAVA for Computer Security) is an application of the Los Alamos Vulnerability Assessment (LAVA) methodology specific to computer and information security. The software serves as a generic tool for identifying vulnerabilities in computer and information security safeguards systems. Although it does not perform a full risk assessment, the results from its analysis may provide valuable insights into security problems. LAVA/CS assumes that the system is exposed to both natural and environmental hazards and tomore » deliberate malevolent actions by either insiders or outsiders. The user in the process of answering the LAVA/CS questionnaire identifies missing safeguards in 34 areas ranging from password management to personnel security and internal audit practices. Specific safeguards protecting a generic set of assets (or targets) from a generic set of threats (or adversaries) are considered. There are four generic assets: the facility, the organization''s environment; the hardware, all computer-related hardware; the software, the information in machine-readable form stored both on-line or on transportable media; and the documents and displays, the information in human-readable form stored as hard-copy materials (manuals, reports, listings in full-size or microform), film, and screen displays. Two generic threats are considered: natural and environmental hazards, storms, fires, power abnormalities, water and accidental maintenance damage; and on-site human threats, both intentional and accidental acts attributable to a perpetrator on the facility''s premises.« less

  2. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established.

  3. Risk assessment handbook

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG&G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers` needs and the product have been established.

  4. Search for: All records | SciTech Connect

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Switch to Detail View for this search SciTech Connect Search Results Page 1 of 4 Search for: All records Creators/Authors contains: "Patel, Pralit" × Sort by Relevance Sort by Date (newest first) Sort by Date (oldest first) Sort by Relevance « Prev Select page number Go to page: 1 of 4 1 » Next » Everything31 Electronic Full Text4 Citations27 Multimedia0 Datasets0 Software0 Filter Results Filter by Subject environmental sciences (4) gcam (4) integrated assessment (4) mitigation (4)

  5. Fort Stewart integrated resource assessment. Volume 3: Resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sullivan, G.P.; Keller, J.M.; Stucky, D.J.; Wahlstrom, R.R.; Larson, L.L.

    1993-10-01

    The US Army Forces Command (FORSCOM) has tasked the US Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP), supported by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory, to identify, evaluate, and assist in acquiring all cost-effective energy projects at Fort Stewart. This is part of a model program that PNL is designing to support energy-use decisions in the federal sector. This report provides the results of the fossil fuel and electric energy resource opportunity (ERO) assessments performed by PNL at the FORSCOM Fort Stewart facility located approximately 25 miles southwest of Savannah, Georgia. It is a companion report to Volume 1, Executive Summary, and Volume 2, Baseline Detail. The results of the analyses of EROs are presented in 11 common energy end-use categories (e.g., boilers and furnaces, service hot water, and building lighting). A narrative description of each ERO is provided, along with a table detailing information on the installed cost, energy and dollar savings; impacts on operations and maintenance (O&M); and, when applicable, a discussion of energy supply and demand, energy security, and environmental issues. A description of the evaluation methodologies and technical and cost assumptions is also provided for each ERO. Summary tables present the cost-effectiveness of energy end-use equipment before and after the implementation of each ERO. The tables also present the results of the life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis indicating the net present value (NPV) and savings to investment ratio (SIR) of each ERO.

  6. Fort Drum integrated resource assessment. Volume 3, Resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dixon, D.R.; Armstrong, P.R.; Daellenbach, K.K.; Dagle, J.E.; Di Massa, F.V.; Elliott, D.B.; Keller, J.M.; Richman, E.E.; Shankle, S.A.; Sullivan, G.P.; Wahlstrom, R.R.

    1992-12-01

    The US Army Forces Command (FORSCOM) has tasked Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as the lead laboratory supporting the US Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program`s (FEMP) mission to identify, evaluate, and assist in acquiring all cost-effective energy projects at Fort Drum. This is a model program PNL is designing for federal customers served by the Niagara Mohawk Power Company (Niagara Mohawk). It will (1) identify and evaluate all electric and fossil fuel cost-effective energy projects; (2) develop a schedule at each installation for project acquisition considering project type, size, timing, capital requirements, as well as energy and dollar savings; and (3) secure 100% of the financing required to implement electric energy efficiency projects from Niagara Mohawk and have Niagara Mohawk procure the necessary contractors to perform detailed audits and install the technologies. This report provides the results of the fossil fuel and electric energy resource opportunity (ERO) assessments performed by PNL at one of Niagara Mohawk`s primary federal facilities, the FORSCOM Fort Drum facility located near Watertown, New York. It is a companion report to Volume 1, the Executive Summary, and Volume 2, the Baseline Detail.

  7. Approaches to cancer assessment in EPA's Integrated Risk Information System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gehlhaus, Martin W.; Gift, Jeffrey S.; Hogan, Karen A.; Kopylev, Leonid; Schlosser, Paul M.; Kadry, Abdel-Razak

    2011-07-15

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program develops assessments of health effects that may result from chronic exposure to chemicals in the environment. The IRIS database contains more than 540 assessments. When supported by available data, IRIS assessments provide quantitative analyses of carcinogenic effects. Since publication of EPA's 2005 Guidelines for Carcinogen Risk Assessment, IRIS cancer assessments have implemented new approaches recommended in these guidelines and expanded the use of complex scientific methods to perform quantitative dose-response assessments. Two case studies of the application of the mode of action framework from the 2005 Cancer Guidelines are presented in this paper. The first is a case study of 1,2,3-trichloropropane, as an example of a chemical with a mutagenic mode of carcinogenic action thus warranting the application of age-dependent adjustment factors for early-life exposure; the second is a case study of ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, as an example of a chemical with a carcinogenic action consistent with a nonlinear extrapolation approach. The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling to quantify interindividual variability and account for human parameter uncertainty as part of a quantitative cancer assessment is illustrated using a case study involving probabilistic PBPK modeling for dichloromethane. We also discuss statistical issues in assessing trends and model fit for tumor dose-response data, analysis of the combined risk from multiple types of tumors, and application of life-table methods for using human data to derive cancer risk estimates. These issues reflect the complexity and challenges faced in assessing the carcinogenic risks from exposure to environmental chemicals, and provide a view of the current trends in IRIS carcinogenicity risk assessment.

  8. Achieving CO2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Calderón, Silvia; Alvarez, Andres Camilo; Loboguerrero, Ana Maria; Arango, Santiago; Calvin, Katherine; Kober, Tom; Daenzer, Kathryn; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

    2015-06-03

    In this paper we investigate CO2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increase inmore » the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. As a result, an assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper.« less

  9. Achieving CO2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calderón, Silvia; Alvarez, Andres Camilo; Loboguerrero, Ana Maria; Arango, Santiago; Calvin, Katherine; Kober, Tom; Daenzer, Kathryn; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

    2015-06-03

    In this paper we investigate CO2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increase in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. As a result, an assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper.

  10. Algae Biofuels Co-Location Assessment Tool

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2013-09-18

    ABCLAT was built to help any model user with spatially explicit Nitrogen, Phosphorous, and Carbon Dioxide nutrient flux information, and solar resource information evaluate algal cultivation potential. Initial applications of this modeling framework include Algae Biofuels Co-Location Assessment Tool Canada and Australia. The Canadian application was copyrighted November 29th 2011 as the Algae Biofuels Co-Location Assessment Tool for Canada. This copyright assertion is for the general framework from which any country or region with themore » requisite data could create a regionally specific application. The ABCLAT model framework developed by SNL looks at the growth potential in a given region as a function of available nutrients from wastewater and other sources, carbon dioxide from power plants, available solar potential, and if available, land cover and use information. The model framework evaluates the biomass potential, fixed carbon dioxide, potential algal biocrude and required land area for nutrient sources. ABCLAT is built with an object-oriented software program that can provide an easy to use interface for exploring questions related to aigal biomass production.« less

  11. NATURAL RESOURCES ASSESSMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D.F. Fenster

    2000-12-11

    The purpose of this report is to summarize the scientific work that was performed to evaluate and assess the occurrence and economic potential of natural resources within the geologic setting of the Yucca Mountain area. The extent of the regional areas of investigation for each commodity differs and those areas are described in more detail in the major subsections of this report. Natural resource assessments have focused on an area defined as the ''conceptual controlled area'' because of the requirements contained in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulation, 10 CFR Part 60, to define long-term boundaries for potential radionuclide releases. New requirements (proposed 10 CFR Part 63 [Dyer 1999]) have obviated the need for defining such an area. However, for the purposes of this report, the area being discussed, in most cases, is the previously defined ''conceptual controlled area'', now renamed the ''natural resources site study area'' for this report (shown on Figure 1). Resource potential can be difficult to assess because it is dependent upon many factors, including economics (demand, supply, cost), the potential discovery of new uses for resources, or the potential discovery of synthetics to replace natural resource use. The evaluations summarized are based on present-day use and economic potential of the resources. The objective of this report is to summarize the existing reports and information for the Yucca Mountain area on: (1) Metallic mineral and mined energy resources (such as gold, silver, etc., including uranium); (2) Industrial rocks and minerals (such as sand, gravel, building stone, etc.); (3) Hydrocarbons (including oil, natural gas, tar sands, oil shales, and coal); and (4) Geothermal resources. Groundwater is present at the Yucca Mountain site at depths ranging from 500 to 750 m (about 1,600 to 2,500 ft) below the ground surface. Groundwater resources are not discussed in this report, but are planned to be included in the hydrology section of future revisions of the ''Yucca Mountain Site Description'' (CRWMS M&O 2000c).

  12. Health and impact assessment: Are we seeing closer integration?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Morgan, Richard K.

    2011-07-15

    Health has always had a place in wider impact assessment activities, from the earliest days of the National Environmental Policy Act in the United States. However, early thinking tended to focus on health protection and environmental health issues, especially in relation to the effects of pollution. The adoption of wider models of health was reflected in impact assessment circles from the early 1990s, with particular emphasis on an integrated approach to impact assessment, especially at the project level, which would see health impact assessment benefiting from working with other forms of impact assessment, such as social and ecological. Yet twenty years later, integration still seems a distant prospect in many countries. In this paper I examine the case for integrating health considerations within the wider IA process, discuss some of the problems that have historically restricted progress towards this end, and explore the degree to which impact assessment practitioners have been successful in seeking to improve the consideration of health in IA. In New Zealand, project-level impact assessment is based on an integrated model under the Resource Management Act. In addition, HIA was recognised in the early 1990s as a valuable addition to the toolkit for project assessment. Since then policy-level HIA has grown supported by extensive capacity building. If health is being integrated into wider impact assessment, it should be happening in New Zealand where so many enabling conditions are met. Three major project proposals from New Zealand are examined, to characterise the broad trends in HIA development in New Zealand in the last ten years and to assess the degree to which health concerns are being reflected in wider impact assessments. The findings are discussed in the context of the issues outlined in the early part of the paper.

  13. Fort Drum integrated resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dixon, D.R.; Armstrong, P.R.; Daellenbach, K.K.; Dagle, J.E.; Di Massa, F.V.; Elliott, D.B.; Keller, J.M.; Richman, E.E.; Shankle, S.A.; Sullivan, G.P.; Wahlstrom, R.R.

    1992-12-01

    The US Army Forces Command (FORSCOM) has tasked Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as the lead laboratory supporting the US Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program's (FEMP) mission to identify, evaluate, and assist in acquiring all cost-effective energy projects at Fort Drum. This is a model program PNL is designing for federal customers served by the Niagara Mohawk Power Company (Niagara Mohawk). It will (1) identify and evaluate all electric and fossil fuel cost-effective energy projects; (2) develop a schedule at each installation for project acquisition considering project type, size, timing, capital requirements, as well as energy and dollar savings; and (3) secure 100% of the financing required to implement electric energy efficiency projects from Niagara Mohawk and have Niagara Mohawk procure the necessary contractors to perform detailed audits and install the technologies. This report provides the results of the fossil fuel and electric energy resource opportunity (ERO) assessments performed by PNL at one of Niagara Mohawk's primary federal facilities, the FORSCOM Fort Drum facility located near Watertown, New York. It is a companion report to Volume 1, the Executive Summary, and Volume 2, the Baseline Detail.

  14. Cassini data assessment report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-08-01

    On October 15, 1997, the Cassini spacecraft was launched from Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) and is now on its way to the planet Saturn. The functional support provided to NASA by DOE included the Advance Launch Support Group (ALSG). If there had been a launch anomaly, the ALSG would have provided a level of radiological emergency response support adequate to transition into a Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC). Additional functional radiological emergency response support, as part of the ALSG, included the: (1) Aerial Measurement System (AMS); (2) Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC); (3) Geographic Information System (GIS); (4) Emergency Response Data System (ERDS); (5) Radiation Emergency Assistance Center and Training Site (REAC/TS); (6) Field monitoring and sampling; (7) Radioanalysis via RASCAL; (8) Source recovery; and (9) Neutron dosimetry and communications support. This functional support provided the capability to rapidly measure and assess radiological impacts from a launch anomaly. The Radiological Control Officer (RCO) on KSC established a Radiological Control Center (RADCC) as the focal point for all on-site and off-site radiological data and information flow. Scientists and radiological response personnel located at the RADCC managed the field monitoring team on the KSC/CCAS federal properties. Off-site radiological emergency response activities for all public lands surrounding the KSC/CCAS complex were coordinated through the Off-site ALSG located at the National Guard Armory in Cocoa, Florida. All of the in situ measurement data of good quality gathered during the dry run, the first launch attempt and the launch day are listed in this document. The RASCAL analysis results of the air filters and impactor planchets are listed.

  15. Biomass Energy for Transport and Electricity: Large scale utilization under low CO2 concentration scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luckow, Patrick; Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.

    2010-01-25

    This paper examines the potential role of large scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems under global climate policies designed to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 400ppm and 450ppm. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. The costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are also incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120-160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced by midcentury and 200-250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the dominant source. A key finding of this paper is the role that carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies coupled with commercial biomass energy can play in meeting stringent emissions targets. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, the resulting negative emissions used in combination with biomass are a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO2 from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels and shows that both technologies are important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics. Through application of the GCAM integrated assessment model, it becomes clear that, given CCS availability, bioenergy will be used both in electricity and transportation.

  16. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  17. Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2011-01-01

    Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whom they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.

  18. Enterprise Assessments Assessment of Construction Quality and the Fire

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Protection program at the Hanford Site Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant - April 2016 | Department of Energy Construction Quality and the Fire Protection program at the Hanford Site Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant - April 2016 Enterprise Assessments Assessment of Construction Quality and the Fire Protection program at the Hanford Site Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant - April 2016 April 2016 Assessment of Construction Quality and the Fire Protection program at the

  19. Environmental Assessment Checklist (DOE, 1994) | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessment Checklist (DOE, 1994) Environmental Assessment Checklist (DOE, 1994) A DOE checklist to assist EA preparers and reviewers. PDF icon Environmental Assessment Checklist ...

  20. Environmental Assessments (EA) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessment Silver Peak Area Geothermal Exploration Project Environmental Assessment, Esmeralda County, NV December 12, 2012 EA-1919: Draft Programmatic Environmental Assessment...

  1. Energy Assessment Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Energy Assessment Results: Most Commonly Identified Recommendations The Missouri Industrial Assessment Center shares its experience providing energy assessments to local industry. ...

  2. Hanford Construction Workers Needs Assessment | Department of...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Needs Assessment Hanford Construction Workers Needs Assessment October 1997 This Needs Assessment for former Hanford construction workers was developed for the purpose of...

  3. Environmental Assessment Checklist | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessment Checklist Environmental Assessment Checklist A DOE checklist to assist EA preparers and reviewers. PDF icon Environmental Assessment Checklist More Documents &...

  4. Industrial Assessment Centers Update, March 2015 | Department...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Read the Industrial Assessment Centers (IAC) Update -- March 2015 Industrial Assessment Centers Quarterly Update, March 2015 More Documents & Publications Industrial Assessment...

  5. Agenda: Preliminary Assessment Kickoff Meeting | Department of...

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    Agenda: Preliminary Assessment Kickoff Meeting Agenda: Preliminary Assessment Kickoff Meeting Document serves as the standard agenda for the preliminary assessment kickoff meeting....

  6. Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs) | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Technical Assistance Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs) Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs) Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs) Small- and medium-sized manufacturers may be...

  7. Independent Oversight Assessment, Pantex Plant - November 2012...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Assessment, Pantex Plant - November 2012 November 2012 Assessment of Nuclear Safety Culture at the Pantex Plant This report provides the results of an independent assessment of...

  8. Climate Change Assessment | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Climate Change Assessment Climate Change Assessment Climate Change Assessment Office presentation icon 66climornlsalev2mjs.ppt More Documents & Publications 2014 Water Power ...

  9. Enterprise Assessments Operational Awareness Record for the Assessment of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Construction at the Hanford Site K-West Annex Facility (OAR EA-HANFORD-2015-09-09) | Department of Energy Assessment of Construction at the Hanford Site K-West Annex Facility (OAR EA-HANFORD-2015-09-09) Enterprise Assessments Operational Awareness Record for the Assessment of Construction at the Hanford Site K-West Annex Facility (OAR EA-HANFORD-2015-09-09) February 2016 Operational Awareness Record for the Assessment of Construction at the Hanford Site K-West Annex Facility The purpose of

  10. Deployment of CCS Technologies across the Load Curve for a Competitive Electricity Market as a Function of CO2 Emissions Permit Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Luckow, Patrick; Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.

    2011-04-18

    Consistent with other published studies, the modelling presented here reveals that baseload power plants are the first aspects of the electricity sector to decarbonize and are essentially decarbonized once CO2 permit prices exceed a certain threshold ($90/ton CO2 in this study). The decarbonization of baseload electricity is met by significant expansions of nuclear power and renewable energy generation technologies as well as the application of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies applied to both coal and natural gas fired power plants. Relatively little attention has been paid thus far to whether intermediate and peaking units would respond the same way to a climate policy given the very different operational and economic context that these kinds of electricity generation units operate under. In this paper, the authors discuss key aspects of the load segmentation methodology used to imbed a varying electricity demand within the GCAM (a state-of-the-art Integrated Assessment Model) energy and economic modelling framework and present key results on the role CCS technologies could play in decarbonizng subpeak and peak generation (encompassing only the top 10% of the load) and under what conditions. To do this, the authors have modelled two hypothetical climate policies that require 50% and 80% reductions in US emissions from business as usual by the middle of this century. Intermediate electricity generation is virtually decarbonized once carbon prices exceed approximately $150/tonCO2. When CO2 permit prices exceed $160/tonCO2, natural gas power plants with CCS have roughly the same marketshare as conventional gas plants in serving subpeak loads. The penetration of CCS into peak load (upper 6% here) is minimal under the scenarios modeled here suggesting that CO2 emissions from this aspect of the U.S. electricity sector would persist well into the future even with stringent CO2 emission control policies in place.

  11. Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    United States Coastline | Department of Energy Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline Report summarizing the results of seven years of numerical model simulations of ocean currents in the United States and the database created with that data. PDF icon Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline More Documents & Publications

  12. Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    United States Coastline | Department of Energy Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Ocean Currents along the United States Coastline Report summarizing the results of seven years of numerical model simulations of ocean currents in the United States and the database created with that data. PDF icon energy_production_ocean_currents_us.pdf More Documents & Publications Assessment of Energy Production

  13. ORISE: How to work with ORISE's environmental assessments and health

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    physics programs How to work with us The Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) provides environmental assessments and health physics services to a variety of government customers. From characterization surveys and independent verification to radiochemical analyses and dose modeling, ORISE can help your environmental cleanup project meet regulatory standards and release criteria. If you are interested in any of ORISE's environmental assessments and health physics capabilities,

  14. EA-1406: Final Environmental Assessment | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    6: Final Environmental Assessment EA-1406: Final Environmental Assessment Ground Water Compliance at the New Rifle, Colorado, UMTRA Project Site This EA evaluates the environmental impacts for the proposed compliance strategy of natural flushing combined with institutional controls and continued monitoring for the New Rifle uranium mill tailings site. PDF icon EA-1406-FEA-2003.pdf More Documents & Publications Analysis and Geochemical Modeling of Vanadium Contamination in Groundwater New

  15. Advanced Materials Laboratory hazards assessment document

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnett, B.; Banda, Z.

    1995-10-01

    The Department of Energy Order 55OO.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the AML. The entire inventory was screened according to the potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distance at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the Early Severe Health Effects threshold is 23 meters. The highest emergency classification is a General Emergency. The Emergency Planning Zone is a nominal area that conforms to DOE boundaries and physical/jurisdictional boundaries such as fence lines and streets.

  16. Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Tehran Research Reactor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hosseini, Seyed Mohammad Hadi; Nematollahi, Mohammad Reza; Sepanloo, Kamran

    2004-07-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) application is found to be a practical tool for research reactor safety due to intense involvement of human interactions in an experimental facility. In this paper the application of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment to the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) is presented. The level 1 PSA application involved: Familiarization with the plant, selection of accident initiators, mitigating functions and system definitions, event tree constructions and quantification, fault tree constructions and quantification, human reliability, component failure data base development and dependent failure analysis. Each of the steps of the analysis given above is discussed with highlights from the selected results. Quantification of the constructed models is done using SAPHIRE software. This Study shows that the obtained core damage frequency for Tehran Research Reactor (8.368 E-6 per year) well meets the IAEA criterion for existing nuclear power plants (1E-4). But safety improvement suggestions are offered to decrease the most probable accidents. (authors)

  17. Radioactive Waste Management Complex performance assessment: Draft

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Case, M.J.; Maheras, S.J.; McKenzie-Carter, M.A.; Sussman, M.E.; Voilleque, P.

    1990-06-01

    A radiological performance assessment of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory was conducted to demonstrate compliance with appropriate radiological criteria of the US Department of Energy and the US Environmental Protection Agency for protection of the general public. The calculations involved modeling the transport of radionuclides from buried waste, to surface soil and subsurface media, and eventually to members of the general public via air, ground water, and food chain pathways. Projections of doses were made for both offsite receptors and individuals intruding onto the site after closure. In addition, uncertainty analyses were performed. Results of calculations made using nominal data indicate that the radiological doses will be below appropriate radiological criteria throughout operations and after closure of the facility. Recommendations were made for future performance assessment calculations.

  18. AVLIS Criticality risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brereton, S.J., LLNL

    1998-04-29

    Evaluation of criticality safety has become an important task in preparing for the Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation (AVLIS) uranium enrichment runs that will take place during the Integrated Process Demonstration (IPD) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). This integrated operation of AVLIS systems under plant-like conditions will be used to verify the performance of process equipment and to demonstrate the sustained integrated enrichment performance of these systems using operating parameters that are similar to production plant specifications. Because of the potential criticality concerns associated with enriched uranium, substantial effort has been aimed towards understanding the potential system failures of interest from a criticality standpoint, and evaluating them in detail. The AVLIS process is based on selective photoionization of uranium atoms of atomic weight 235 (U-235) in a vapor stream, followed by electrostatic extraction. The process is illustrated in Figure 1. Two major subsystems are involved: the uranium separator and the laser system. In the separator, metallic uranium is fed into a crucible where it is heated and vaporized by an electron beam. The atomic U-235/U-238 vapor stream moves away from the molten uranium and is illuminated by precisely tuned beams of dye laser light. Upon absorption of the tuned dye laser light, the U-235 atoms become excited and eject electrons (become photoionized), giving them a net positive charge. The ions of U-235 are moved preferentially by an electrostatic field to condense on the product collector, forming the enriched uranium product. The remaining vapor, which is depleted in U-235 (tails), passes unaffected through the photoionization/extractor zone and accumulates on collectors in the top of the separator. Tails and product collector surfaces operate at elevated temperatures so that deposited materials flow as segregated liquid streams. The separated uranium condensates (uranium enriched in U-235 and uranium depleted in U-235) are cooled and accumulated in solid metallic form in canisters. The collected product and tails material is weighed and transferred into certified, critically safe, shipping containers (DOT specification 6M with 2R containment vessel). These will be temporarily stored, and then shipped offsite either for use by a fuel fabricator, or for disposal. Tails material will be packaged for disposal. A criticality risk assessment was performed for AVLIS IPD runs. In this analysis, the likelihood of occurrence of a criticality was examined. For the AVLIS process, there are a number of areas that have been specifically examined to assess whether or not the frequency of occurrence of a criticality is credible (frequency of occurrence > 10-6/yr). In this paper, we discuss only two of the areas: the separator and canister operations.

  19. Information needs for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  20. Fiscal Year 2014 Revegetation Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nordstrom, Jenifer

    2015-03-01

    This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2014 Revegetation Assessment by Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC. This assessment was conducted to document revegetation efforts at Idaho National Laboratory to ensure that disturbed vegetation and soil at various locations are being restored. This report provides the following information for each site being monitored by the Idaho National Laboratory Environmental Support and Services: • Summary of each site • Assessment of vegetation status and site stabilization at each location • Actions and Resolutions for each site. Five disturbed sites were evaluated for this assessment. Four sites are recommended to be removed from the annual assessment, and one is recommended for continued evaluation. New sites are also identified for future monitoring as part of the annual assessment.

  1. Radiological assessment. A textbook on environmental dose analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Till, J.E.; Meyer, H.R.

    1983-09-01

    Radiological assessment is the quantitative process of estimating the consequences to humans resulting from the release of radionuclides to the biosphere. It is a multidisciplinary subject requiring the expertise of a number of individuals in order to predict source terms, describe environmental transport, calculate internal and external dose, and extrapolate dose to health effects. Up to this time there has been available no comprehensive book describing, on a uniform and comprehensive level, the techniques and models used in radiological assessment. Radiological Assessment is based on material presented at the 1980 Health Physics Society Summer School held in Seattle, Washington. The material has been expanded and edited to make it comprehensive in scope and useful as a text. Topics covered include (1) source terms for nuclear facilities and Medical and Industrial sites; (2) transport of radionuclides in the atmosphere; (3) transport of radionuclides in surface waters; (4) transport of radionuclides in groundwater; (5) terrestrial and aquatic food chain pathways; (6) reference man; a system for internal dose calculations; (7) internal dosimetry; (8) external dosimetry; (9) models for special-case radionuclides; (10) calculation of health effects in irradiated populations; (11) evaluation of uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models; (12) regulatory standards for environmental releases of radionuclides; (13) development of computer codes for radiological assessment; and (14) assessment of accidental releases of radionuclides.

  2. Remedial Action Assessment System

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1997-02-01

    RAAS1.1 is a software-based system designed to assist remediation professionals at each stage of the environmental analysis process. RAAS1.1 provides a template for environmental restoration analysis, and provides the user with key results at each step in the analysis. RAAS1.1 assists the user to develop a coherent and consistent site description, estimate baseline and residual risk to public health from the contaminated site, identify applicable environmental restoration technologies, and formulate feasible remedial response alternatives. Inmore » addition, the RAAS1.1 methodology allows the user to then assess and compare those remedial response alternatives across EPA criteria, including: compliance with objectives; short-term and long-term effectiveness; extent of treatment; and implementability of the technologies. The analytic methodology is segmented and presented in a standardized, concise, easy-to-use format that can be viewed on the personal computer screen, saved and further manipulated, or printed for later use. Each screen and analytic step is accessed via a user-friendly personal computer graphical interface. Intuitively-designed buttons, menus, and lists help the user focus in on the particular information and analysis component of interest; the corresponding results are presented in a format that facilitates their use in decision-making.« less

  3. Information technology resources assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Loken, S.C.

    1993-01-01

    The emphasis in Information Technology (IT) development has shifted from technology management to information management, and the tools of information management are increasingly at the disposal of end-users, people who deal with information. Moreover, the interactive capabilities of technologies such as hypertext, scientific visualization, virtual reality, video conferencing, and even database management systems have placed in the hands of users a significant amount of discretion over how these resources will be used. The emergence of high-performance networks, as well as network operating systems, improved interoperability, and platform independence of applications will eliminate technical barriers to the use of data, increase the power and range of resources that can be used cooperatively, and open up a wealth of possibilities for new applications. The very scope of these prospects for the immediate future is a problem for the IT planner or administrator. Technology procurement and implementation, integration of new technologies into the existing infrastructure, cost recovery and usage of networks and networked resources, training issues, and security concerns such as data protection and access to experiments are just some of the issues that need to be considered in the emerging IT environment. As managers we must use technology to improve competitiveness. When procuring new systems, we must take advantage of scalable resources. New resources such as distributed file systems can improve access to and efficiency of existing operating systems. In addition, we must assess opportunities to improve information worker productivity and information management through tedmologies such as distributed computational visualization and teleseminar applications.

  4. Model Baseline Fire Department/Fire Protection Engineering Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The purpose of the document is to comprehensively delineate and rationalize the roles and responsibilities of the Fire Department and Fire Protection (Engineering).

  5. Webinar: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models)...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    codes and standards. HyRAM is being used in the development of National Fire Protection Association and ISO standards for hydrogen fueling stations. Register for the webinar

  6. Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    in SCS Enabling methods, data, tools 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Advanced laser diagnostics applied to ... deliberations with a mathematical one-dimensional formula" ...

  7. Performance assessment model of a single waste package (Conference...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    WASTES; UNDERGROUND DISPOSAL; PACKAGING; DIFFUSION; GROUND WATER; RADIONUCLIDE MIGRATION; TECHNETIUM 99; SOLUBILITY 052002; 053004; WASTE DISPOSAL AND STORAGE; DESIGN BASIS ...

  8. Assessment of Combustion and Turbulence Models for the Simulation of

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Thanks to a cost-sharing project with the Energy Department, General Motors has been able to develop the capacity to build electric and hybrid motors internally. That capacity has made cars like the upcoming Chevy Spark EV (above) possible. | Image courtesy of General Motors. Thanks to a cost-sharing project with the Energy Department, General Motors has been able to develop the capacity to build electric and hybrid motors internally. That capacity has made cars like the upcoming Chevy Spark EV

  9. Computational Modeling and Assessment Of Nanocoatings for Ultra Supercritical Boilers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gandy, David W.; Shingledecker, John P.

    2011-05-11

    Coal-fired power plants are a significant part of the nation's power generating capacity, currently accounting for more than 55% of the country's total electricity production. Extending the reliable lifetimes of fossil fired boiler components and reducing the maintenance costs are essential for economic operation of power plants. Corrosion and erosion are leading causes of superheater and reheater boiler tube failures leading to unscheduled costly outages. Several types of coatings and weld overlays have been used to extend the service life of boiler tubes; however, the protection afforded by such materials was limited approximately one to eight years. Power companies are more recently focused in achieving greater plant efficiency by increasing steam temperature and pressure into the advanced-ultrasupercritical (A-USC) condition with steam temperatures approaching 760°C (1400°F) and operating pressures in excess of 35MPa (5075 psig). Unfortunately, laboratory and field testing suggests that the resultant fireside environment when operating under A-USC conditions can potentially cause significant corrosion to conventional and advanced boiler materials1-2. In order to improve reliability and availability of fossil fired A-USC boilers, it is essential to develop advanced nanostructured coatings that provide excellent corrosion and erosion resistance without adversely affecting the other properties such as toughness and thermal fatigue strength of the component material.

  10. TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT-OVERVIEW

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ASSESSMENT-OVERVIEW JANUARY 2015 -A CHECKPOINT ALONG A CHALLENGING JOURNEY DOE/NETL-2015/1711 U.S. Department of Energy 2014 TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT-OVERVIEW 2 2014 TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT-OVERVIEW Office of Fossil Energy | National Energy Technology Laboratory DISCLAIMER 3 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes

  11. NREL: Energy Analysis: Resource Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Resource Assessment NREL has developed maps and tools to conduct renewable energy resource assessments at the state, national and international level. Around the world, interest is growing in renewable energy as a strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and increase energy security. The starting point for new renewable energy projects is a characterization of the renewable resources available across a region, a resource assessment. NREL uses geospatial data sets to identify regions that

  12. FTCP Assessment Guidance and Criteria

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This document establishes the guidance and criteria for conducting internal and independent Federal Technical Capability Assessments within the Department. The requirements of this document are applicable to those organizations having safety responsibilities for defense nuclear facilities. This includes both headquarters and field organizations. Regardless of the type of assessment conducted, the objectives and criteria within this document are used as a basis for the assessment. Use of consistent objectives and criteria is necessary to establish baselines and to track and trend performance.

  13. Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph; Rodhe, Henning

    2014-12-08

    Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content.more » This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO₂ given in AR5, 1.5–4.5 K/(3.7 W m⁻²) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2–2.9 K/(3.7 W m⁻²), where 3.7 W ⁻² denotes the forcing for doubled CO₂. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.« less

  14. Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph; Rodhe, Henning

    2014-12-08

    Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content. This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO? given in AR5, 1.54.5 K/(3.7 W m?) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.22.9 K/(3.7 W m?), where 3.7 W ? denotes the forcing for doubled CO?. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.

  15. CRAD, Operations Authorization Assessment Plan

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The objective of this assessment is to verify there is documentation in place which accurately describes the safety envelope for a facility, program or project.

  16. Assessment Documents | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Safety Analysis April 10, 2015 Enterprise Assessments Review, Pantex Plant 2014 Full Participation Exercise - April 2015 Review of the Pantex Plant 2014 Full Participation...

  17. Exploration Technologies - Technology Needs Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greene, Amanda I.; Thorsteinsson, Hildigunnur; Reinhardt, Tim; Solomon, Samantha; James, Mallory

    2011-06-01

    This assessment is a critical component of ongoing technology roadmapping efforts, and will be used to guide the Geothermal Technology Program's research and development.

  18. Assessment Documents | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ... Enterprise Assessments Operational Awareness Record, Idaho Site Irradiated Materials Characterization Laboratory and the Advanced Mixed Waste Treatment Project December 10, 2015 ...

  19. ORISE: Radiological program assessment services

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ORISE focuses its radiological audit and assessment services in these key areas: Nondestructive assay (NDA) Radiological control programs Environmental monitoring programs ...

  20. EA-1956: Final Environmental Assessment

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Site-Wide Environmental Assessment for the Divestiture of Rocky Mountain Oilfield Testing Center and Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 3, Natrona County, Wyoming