National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for assessment model gcam

  1. Enhancement of Solar Energy Representation in the GCAM Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Volke, April C.; Delgado Arias, Sabrina

    2010-02-01

    The representation of solar technologies in a research version of the GCAM (formerly MiniCAM) integrated assessment model have been enhanced to add technologies, improve the underlying data, and improve the interaction with the rest of the model. We find that the largest potential impact from the inclusion of thermal Concentrating Solar Power plants, which supply a substantial portion of electric generation in sunny regions of the world. Drawing on NREL research, domestic Solar Hot Water technologies have also been added in the United States region where this technology competes with conventional electric and gas technologies. PV technologies are as implemented in the CCTP scenarios, drawing on NREL cost curves for the United States, extrapolated to other world regions using a spatial analysis of population and solar resources.

  2. US Renewable Futures in the GCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, S.J.; Mizrahi, A.H.; Karas, J.F.; Nathan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This report examines renewable energy deployment in the United States using a version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with a detailed representation of renewables; the GCAM-RE. Electricity generation was modeled in four generation segments and 12-subregions. This level of regional and sector detail allows a more explicit representation of renewable energy generation. Wind, solar thermal power, and central solar PV plants are implemented in explicit resource classes with new intermittency parameterizations appropriate for each technology. A scenario analysis examines a range of assumptions for technology characteristics, climate policy, and long distance transmission.

  3. US Renewable Futures in the GCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, Steven J.; Mizrahi, Andrew H.; Karas, Joseph F.; Nathan, Mayda

    2011-10-06

    This project examines renewable energy deployment in the United States using a version of the GCAM integrated assessment model with detailed a representation of renewables, the GCAM-RE. Electricity generation was modeled in four generation segments and 12-subregions. This level of regional and sectoral detail allows a more explicit representation of renewable energy generation. Wind, solar thermal power, and central solar PV plants are implemented in explicit resource classes with new intermittency parameterizations appropriate for each technology. A scenario analysis examines a range of assumptions for technology characteristics, climate policy, and long-distance transmission. We find that renewable generation levels grow over the century in all scenarios. As expected, renewable generation increases with lower renewable technology costs, more stringent climate policy, and if alternative low-carbon technology are not available. The availability of long distance transmission lowers policy costs and changes the renewable generation mix.

  4. Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Edmonds, James A.

    2014-09-01

    We explore the impact of changes in agricultural productivity on global land use and terrestrial carbon using the new agriculture and land use modeling approach developed for Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. This approach models economic land use decisions with regional, physical, and technological specificity while maintaining economic and physical integration with the rest of the GCAM model. Physical land characteristics and quantities are tracked explicitly, and crop production practices are modeled discretely to facilitate coupling with physical models. Economic land allocation is modeled with non-linear functions in a market equilibrium rather than through a constrained optimization. In this paper, we explore three scenarios of future agriculture productivity in all regions of the globe over this century, ranging from a high growth to a zero growth level. The higher productivity growth scenario leads to lower crop prices, increased production of crops in developing nations, preservation of global forested lands and lower terrestrial carbon emissions. The scenario with no productivity improvement results in higher crop prices, an expansion of crop production in the developed world, loss of forested lands globally, and higher terrestrial carbon emissions.

  5. Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: Initial experiments using GCAM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2013-04-01

    Historically climate impacts research and climate mitigation research have been two separate and independent domains of inquiry. Climate mitigation research has investigated greenhouse gas emissions assuming that climate is unchanging. At the same time climate mitigation research has investigated the implications of climate change on the assumption that climate mitigation will proceed without affecting the degree of climate impacts or the ability of human and natural systems to adapt. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) has largely been employed to study climate mitigation. Here we explore the development of capabilities to assess climate change impacts and adaptation within the GCAM model. These capabilities are being developed so as to be able to simultaneously reconcile the joint implications of climate change mitigation, impacts and adaptive potential. This is an important step forward in that it enables direct comparison between climate mitigation activities and climate impacts and the opportunity to understand interactions between the two.

  6. GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land Use: Data Sources and Methods

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Calvin, Katherine V.; Emanuel, William R.; Nathan, Mayda; Zhou, Yuyu

    2011-12-12

    This report presents the data processing methods used in the GCAM 3.0 agriculture and land use component, starting from all source data used, and detailing all calculations and assumptions made in generating the model inputs. The report starts with a brief introduction to modeling of agriculture and land use in GCAM 3.0, and then provides documentation of the data and methods used for generating the base-year dataset and future scenario parameters assumed in the model input files. Specifically, the report addresses primary commodity production, secondary (animal) commodity production, disposition of commodities, land allocation, land carbon contents, and land values.

  7. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Di Vittorio, Alan; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Truesdale, John E.; Craig, Anthony P.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Hurtt, George; Thornton, Peter E.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-11-27

    Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Models (GCAMs) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAMs afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAMs pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

  8. GCAM Bioenergy and Land Use Modeling

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Northwest National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information Goal Statement Support BETO Analysis and ...

  9. Development of a Future Representative Concentration Pathway for Use in the IPCC 5th Assessment Earth System Model Simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2010-12-29

    The representative concentration pathway to be delivered is a scenario of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important atmospheric species, along with land-use changes, derived from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The particular representative concentration pathway (RCP) that the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) has been responsible for is a not-to-exceed pathway that stabilizes at a radiative forcing of 4.5Wm-2 in the year 2100.

  10. Global Deployment of Geothermal Energy Using a New Characterization in GCAM 1.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannam, Phil; Kyle, G. Page; Smith, Steven J.

    2009-09-01

    This report documents modeling of geothermal energy in GCAM 1.0 (formerly MiniCAM) from FY2008 to FY2009, from the inputs to the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program report (Clarke et al., 2008a) to the present representation, which will be used in future work. To demonstrate the newest representation, we describe the procedure and outcome of six model runs that illustrate the potential role of geothermal energy in the U.S. and global regions through different futures climate policy, development and deployment of engineered, or enhanced, geothermal systems (EGS), and availability of other low-cost, low-carbon electricity generation technologies such as nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

  11. On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Calvin, Katherine V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Mao, Jiafu; Patel, Pralit L.; Shi, Xiaoying; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, Peter E.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2014-01-01

    Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, posing a significant problem for earth system models (ESMs), which may incorporate static land-use change inputs but do not actively simulate policy or economic forces. One option to address this problem is a to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model. Here we have implemented and tested a coupling mechanism between the carbon cycles of an ESM (CLM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, examining the best proxy variables to share between the models, and quantifying our ability to distinguish climate- and land-use-driven flux changes. CLMs net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to manipulate GCAMs assumptions of long-term ecosystem steady state carbon, with short-term forest production strongly correlated with long-term biomass changes in climate-change model runs. By leveraging the fact that carbon-cycle effects of anthropogenic land-use change are short-term and spatially limited relative to widely distributed climate effects, we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. By allowing climate effects from a full earth system model to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work provides a foundation for linking these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and earth system processes.

  12. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model

  13. Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.

  14. Land-use Scenario Analysis Toolkit | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Energy Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) Dynamic-recursive model GCAM Model Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Resources by Type Tools Click Sort key.JPG to sort by...

  15. Explicitly Accounting for Protected Lands within the GCAM 3.0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dooley, James J.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2012-05-01

    The Global Change Assessment Model Version 3.0 defines three different levels of “Protected Lands” within the agricultural and landuse component. These three different scenarios effectively cordon off 3.5% (5.0 million km2) of the Earth’s terrestrial lands in the de minimus Protected Land Scenario, 5.0% (7.20 million km2) in the Core Protected Land Scenario, and 8.2% (11.8 million km2) in the Expanded Protected Land Scenario. None of these scenarios represents the “right” level of Protected Lands for the planet today or tomorrow. Rather, the goal is to create a range of scenarios that can be used in modeling human responses to climate change and the impact those would have on managed and unmanaged terrestrial lands. These scenarios harness the wealth of information in the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre’s World Database on Protected Areas and its categories of explicit degrees of protection.

  16. LONG-TERM GLOBAL WATER USE PROJECTIONS USING SIX SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING FRAMEWORK

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Moss, Richard H.; Kim, Son H.

    2014-01-19

    In this paper, we assess future water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors, by incorporating water demands into a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Base-year water demandsboth gross withdrawals and net consumptive useare assigned to specific modeled activities in a way that maximizes consistency between bottom-up estimates of water demand intensities of specific technologies and practices, and top-down regional and sectoral estimates of water use. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. We assess future water demands representing six socioeconomic scenarios, with no constraints imposed by future water supplies. The scenarios observe increases in global water withdrawals from 3,578 km3 year-1 in 2005 to 5,987 8,374 km3 year-1 in 2050, and to 4,719 12,290 km3 year-1 in 2095. Comparing the projected total regional water withdrawals to the historical supply of renewable freshwater, the Middle East exhibits the highest levels of water scarcity throughout the century, followed by India; water scarcity increases over time in both of these regions. In contrast, water scarcity improves in some regions with large base-year electric sector withdrawals, such as the USA and Canada, due to capital stock turnover and the almost complete phase-out of once-through flow cooling systems. The scenarios indicate that: 1) water is likely a limiting factor in climate change mitigation policies, 2) many regions can be expected to increase reliance on non-renewable groundwater, water reuse, and desalinated water, but they also highlight an

  17. Explicitly Accounting for Protected Lands within the GCAM 3.0...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    be used in modeling human responses to climate change and the impact those would have on ... United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre's World ...

  18. Modeling the effect of climate change on U.S. state-level buildings energy demands in an integrated assessment framework

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Eom, Jiyong; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.; Kim, Son H.; Dirks, James A.; Jensen, Erik A.; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie S.; Schmidt, Laurel C.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2014-01-01

    As long-term socioeconomic transformation and energy service expansion show large spatial heterogeneity, advanced understanding of climate impact on building energy use at the sub-national level will offer useful insights into climate policy and regional energy system planning. In this study, we presented a detailed building energy model with a U.S. state-level representation, nested in the GCAM integrated assessment framework. We projected state-level building energy demand and its spatial pattern over the century, considering the impact of climate change based on the estimates of heating and cooling degree days derived from downscaled USGS CASCaDE temperature data. The result indicates that climate change has a large impact on heating and cooling building energy and fuel use at the state level, exhibiting large spatial heterogeneity across states (ranges from -10% to +10%). The sensitivity analysis reveals that the building energy demand is subject to multiple key factors, such as the magnitude of climate change, the choice of climate models, and the growth of population and GDP, and that their relative contributions vary greatly across the space. The scale impact in building energy use modeling highlights the importance of constructing a building energy model with the spatially-explicit representation of socioeconomics, energy system development, and climate change. These findings will help the climate-based policy decision and energy system, especially utility planning related to building sector at the U.S. state and regional level facing the potential climate change.

  19. ORISE: Dose modeling and assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Dose modeling and assessments The Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) offers dose modeling and assessment services to demonstrate that federal and/or state regulatory compliance requirements are being met during the decontamination and decommissioning of nuclear facilities. Dose modeling is an important step in the assessment of safety and regulatory compliance, as well as the development of standards and regulatory rulemaking. The ultimate goal of dose modeling and assessments

  20. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  1. Search for: All records | SciTech Connect

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative ...

  2. ORISE: Dose modeling and assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) offers dose modeling and assessment services to demonstrate that federal andor state regulatory compliance requirements...

  3. TEPP Model Needs Assessment Document

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The purpose of this Model Needs Assessment is to assist state, tribal, or local officials in determining emergency responder readiness for response to a transportation accident  involving...

  4. Decision Impact Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1991-08-01

    DIAMOND represents the decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, cancelled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side managementmore » programs can be changed from year to year. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources.« less

  5. Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Popp, Alexander; Rose, Steven K.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Dietrich, Jan P.; Wise, Marshall A.; Stehfest, Eike; Humpenoder, Florian; Kyle, G. Page; Van Vliet, Jasper; Bauer, Nico; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Klein, David; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-04-01

    This study is a model comparison assessing the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system and the interaction with other land use based mitigation options in the context of the EMF 27 project. We compare and evaluate results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE). All three models project that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues are a potentially important and cost-effective component of the energy system. But bioenergy deployment levels and feedstock composition vary notably across models as do the implications for land-use and greenhouse gas emissions and the interaction with other land use based mitigation measures. Despite numerous model differences, we identify a few that are likely contributing to differences in land-use and emissions attributable to energy crop deployment.

  6. Mathematical models for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zaikin, S.A.

    1995-12-01

    The use of mathematical models in risk assessment results in the proper understanding of many aspects of chemical exposure and allows to make more actual decisions. Our project ISCRA (Integrated Systems of Complex Risk Assessment) has the aim to create integrated systems of algorythms for prediction of pollutants` exposure on human and environmental health and to apply them for environmental monitoring, and decision-making. Mathematical model {open_quotes}MASTER{close_quotes} (Mathematical Algorythm of SimulaTion of Environmental Risk) represents the complex of algorythmical blocks and is intended for the prediction of danger of pollutants` exposure for human and environmental risk. Model LIMES (LIMits EStimation) is developed for prognosis of safety concentrations of pollutants in the environment both in the case of isolated exposure and in the case of complex exposure for concrete location. Model QUANT (QUANtity of Toxicant) represents the multicompartmental physiological pharmacokinetic model describing absorption, distribution, fate, metabolism, and elimination of pollutants in the body of different groups of human population, as a result of the different kind of exposure. Decision support system CLEVER (Complex LEVE1 of Risk) predicts the probability and the degree of development of unfavourable effects as result of exposure of pollutant on human health. System is based on the data of epidemiological and experimental researches and includes several mathematical models for analysis of {open_quotes}dose-time-response{close_quotes} relations and information about clinical symptoms of diseases. Model CEP (Combination Effect Prognosis) contains probabilistic algorythms for forecasting the effect of simultaneous impact of several factors polluting the environment. The result of the program work is the prediction of an independent exposure of two or more factors, and intensification or weakening of exposure in depending on factors` interactions.

  7. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-06-01

    This Preliminary Assessment draft report will present the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report will provide: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling approaches judged to be potentially useful to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This draft report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling (SAM) program. Specifically this draft report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment. This project investigates non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State’s posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.

  8. TEPP Planning Products Model Needs Assessment Self Assessment Document

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Planning Products Model Needs Assessment Self Assessment Document Prepared for the Department of Energy Office of Transportation and Emergency Management 02B00215-13.p65 1 Model Needs Assessment R E V 8 - 0 7 / 2 0 1 2 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n E m e r g e n c y P r e p a r e d n e s s P r o g r a m PURPOSE The purpose of this Model Needs Assessment is to assist state, tribal, or local officials in determining emergency responder readiness for response to a transportation accident involving

  9. Water demands for electricity generation in the U.S.: Modeling different scenarios for the water–energy nexus

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Patel, Pralit L.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-05-01

    Water withdrawal for electricity generation in the United States accounts for approximately half the total freshwater withdrawal. With steadily growing electricity demands, a changing climate, and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states, meeting future energy and water demands poses a significant socio-economic challenge. Employing an integrated modeling approach that can capture the energy-water interactions at regional and national scales is essential to improve our understanding of the key drivers that govern those interactions and the role of national policies. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and land use, water, and climate systems, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. (GCAM-USA). GCAM-USA was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and consumption, and their associated water withdrawals and consumption under a set of six scenarios with extensive details on the generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and their associated water use intensities. Six scenarios of future water demands of the U.S. electric-sector were explored to investigate the implications of socioeconomics development and growing electricity demands, climate mitigation policy, the transition of cooling systems, electricity trade, and water saving technologies. Our findings include: 1) decreasing water withdrawals and substantially increasing water consumption from both climate mitigation and the conversion from open-loop to closed-loop cooling systems; 2) open trading of electricity benefiting energy scarce yet demand intensive states; 3) within state variability under different driving forces while across state homogeneity under certain driving force ; 4) a clear trade-off between water consumption and withdrawal for the electricity sector in the U.S. The paper discusses this withdrawal

  10. Model Fire Protection Assessment Guide

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This Assessment guide covers the implementation of the DOE's responsibility of assuring that DOE and the DOE Contractors have established Fire Protection Programs that are at the level required for the area being assessed.

  11. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1988-10-31

    IRDAM is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of an accident at a nuclear power plant. The code packaged October 1988 is Version 3.

  12. Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2002-01-03

    This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materials modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.

  13. Minority Utility Rate Design Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2003-01-20

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to various user-supplied, two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic welfare impact on black, hispanic, poor and majority households.

  14. China's Building Energy Use: A Long-Term Perspective based on a Detailed Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon E.; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.

    2012-01-13

    We present here a detailed, service-based model of China's building energy use, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explore long-term pathways of China's building energy use and identify opportunities of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of a structural model of building energy demands within an integrated assessment framework represents a major methodological advance. It allows for a structural understanding of the drivers of building energy consumption while simultaneously considering the other human and natural system interactions that influence changes in the global energy system and climate. We also explore a range of different scenarios to gain insights into how China's building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China's building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.

  15. Model-based safety assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlson, D.D.; Jones, T.R.

    1998-04-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performs systems analysis of high risk, high consequence systems. In particular, Sandia is responsible for the engineering of nuclear weapons, exclusive of the explosive physics package. In meeting this responsibility, Sandia has developed fundamental approaches to safety and a process for evaluating safety based on modeling and simulation. These approaches provide confidence in the safety of our nuclear weapons. Similar concepts may be applied to improve the safety of other high consequence systems.

  16. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  17. Appendix MASS: Performance Assessment Modeling Assumptions

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Appendix MASS-2014 Performance Assessment Modeling Assumptions United States Department of Energy Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Carlsbad Field Office Carlsbad, New Mexico Compliance Recertification Application 2014 Appendix MASS Table of Contents MASS-1.0 Introduction MASS-2.0 Summary of Changes in Performance Assessment MASS-2.1 FEPs Assessment MASS-2.2 Monitoring MASS-2.3 Experimental Activities MASS-2.3.1 Steel Corrosion Investigations MASS-2.3.2 Waste Shear Strength Investigations MASS-2.3.3

  18. Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for ...

  19. Analysis of Wind Turbine Simulation Models: Assessment of Simplified...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Analysis of Wind Turbine Simulation Models: Assessment of Simplified versus Complete ... Spain, September 10-12, 2015 ANALYSIS OF WIND TURBINE SIMULATION MODELS: ASSESSMENT OF ...

  20. MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment Context and Overview MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment Context and Overview Presentation...

  1. Financial and Cost Assessment Model (FICAM) | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    and Cost Assessment Model (FICAM) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Financial and Cost Assessment Model (FICAM) AgencyCompany Organization: UNEP-Risoe...

  2. Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM) - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Energy Defense Waste Management Programs

  3. Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating Wind at Heights Relevant to the Wind Energy Community Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Assessment of ...

  4. A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd; Clarke, Leon E.

    2014-04-01

    China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13% - 22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement.

  5. Model for assessing bronchial mucus transport

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agnew, J.E.; Bateman, J.R.M.; Pavia, D.; Clarke, S.W.

    1984-02-01

    The authors propose a scheme for the assessment of regional mucus transport using inhaled Tc-99m aerosol particles and quantitative analysis of serial gamma-camera images. The model treats input to inner and intermediate lung regions as the total of initial deposition there plus subsequent transport into these regions from more peripheral airways. It allows for interregional differences in the proportion of particles deposited on the mucus-bearing conducting airways, and does not require a gamma image 24 hr after particle inhalation. Instead, distribution of particles reaching the respiratory bronchioles or alveoli is determined from a Kr-81m ventilation image, while the total amount of such deposition is obtained from 24-hr Tc-99m retention measured with a sensitive counter system. The model is applicable to transport by mucociliary action or by cough, and has been tested in ten normal and ten asthmatic subjects.

  6. AlliedSignal capability maturity model assessment & improvement processes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kuhn, C.

    1997-11-01

    This report contains viewgraphs on AlliedSignal capability maturity model assessment and improvement processes for software.

  7. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  8. 2013 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    GCAM Bioenergy and Land Use Modeling May 21, 2013 Technology Area Review: Analysis and Sustainability Principal Investigator: Marshall Wise Organization: PNNL This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office eere.energy.gov Goal Statement * The main objective is to model and study the long-term global potential and role of bioenergy using the PNNL Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) - Project supports BETO

  9. Sensitivity to Energy Technology Costs: A Multi-model comparison analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Marangoni, Giacomo; Borgonovo, Emanuele; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Politis, Savvas; Friley, Paul

    2015-05-01

    In the present paper we use the output of multiple expert elicitation surveys on the future cost of key low-carbon technologies and use it as input of three Integrated Assessment models, GCAM, MARKAL_US and WITCH. By means of a large set of simulations we aim to assess the implications of these subjective distributions of technological costs over key model outputs. We are able to detect what sources of technology uncertainty are more influential, how this differs across models, and whether and how results are affected by the time horizon, the metric considered or the stringency of the climate policy. In unconstrained emission scenarios, within the range of future technology performances considered in the present analysis, the cost of nuclear energy is shown to dominate all others in affecting future emissions. Climate-constrained scenarios, stress the relevance, in addition to that of nuclear energy, of biofuels, as they represent the main source of decarbonization of the transportation sector and bioenergy, since the latter can be coupled with CCS to produce negative emissions.

  10. Performance model assessment for multi-junction concentrating photovoltaic systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Riley, Daniel M.; McConnell, Robert.; Sahm, Aaron; Crawford, Clark; King, David L.; Cameron, Christopher P.; Foresi, James S.

    2010-03-01

    Four approaches to modeling multi-junction concentrating photovoltaic system performance are assessed by comparing modeled performance to measured performance. Measured weather, irradiance, and system performance data were collected on two systems over a one month period. Residual analysis is used to assess the models and to identify opportunities for model improvement.

  11. Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model (HyRAM)

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Storage Components and Systems Batteries Electric Drive Systems Hydrogen Materials & Components Compatibility Hydrogen Behavior Quantitative Risk Assessment Technical ...

  12. Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wind Energy Community Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating Wind at Heights Relevant to the Wind Energy ...

  13. Quality Assurance for Performance Assessment Modeling

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  14. Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit; Eom, Jiyon; Kim, Son H.; et al

    2015-06-10

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effectsmore » of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.« less

  15. Impacts of Rising Air Temperatures and Emissions Mitigation on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States. A Multi-Model Comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarland, James; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit; Eom, Jiyon; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Schultz, Peter; Venkatesh, Boddu; Haydel, Juanita; Mack, Charlotte; Creason, Jared

    2015-06-10

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. Our present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. Moreover, the increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

  16. Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarland, Jim; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Schultz, Peter; Venkatesh, Boddu; Haydel, Juanita; Mack, Charlotte; Creason, Jared

    2015-10-09

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. The present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. The increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

  17. Erratum to: Impacts of rising air temperatures and emissions mitigation on electricity demand and supply in the United States: a multi-model comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McFarland, Jim; Zhou, Yuyu; Clarke, Leon E.; Sullivan, Patrick; Colman, Jesse; Jaglom, Wendy; Colley, Michelle; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Kim, Son H.; Kyle, G. Page; Schultz, Peter; Venkatesh, Boddu; Haydel, Juanita; Mack, Charlotte; Creason, Jared

    2015-10-07

    The electric power sector both affects and is affected by climate change. Numerous studies highlight the potential of the power sector to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet fewer studies have explored the physical impacts of climate change on the power sector. The present analysis examines how projected rising temperatures affect the demand for and supply of electricity. We apply a common set of temperature projections to three well-known electric sector models in the United States: the US version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA), the Regional Electricity Deployment System model (ReEDS), and the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). Incorporating the effects of rising temperatures from a control scenario without emission mitigation into the models raises electricity demand by 1.6 to 6.5 % in 2050 with similar changes in emissions. The increase in system costs in the reference scenario to meet this additional demand is comparable to the change in system costs associated with decreasing power sector emissions by approximately 50 % in 2050. This result underscores the importance of adequately incorporating the effects of long-run temperature change in climate policy analysis.

  18. Performance model assessment for multi-junction concentrating photovoltaic systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Riley, Daniel M.; McConnell, Robert.; Sahm, Aaron; Crawford, Clark; King, David L.; Cameron, Christopher P.; Foresi, James S.

    2010-03-01

    Four approaches to modeling multi-junction concentrating photovoltaic system performance are assessed by comparing modeled performance to measured performance. Measured weather, irradiance, and system performance data were collected on two systems over a one month period. Residual analysis is used to assess the models and to identify opportunities for model improvement. Large photovoltaic systems are typically developed as projects which supply electricity to a utility and are owned by independent power producers. Obtaining financing at favorable rates and attracting investors requires confidence in the projected energy yield from the plant. In this paper, various performance models for projecting annual energy yield from Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV) systems are assessed by comparing measured system output to model predictions based on measured weather and irradiance data. The results are statistically analyzed to identify systematic error sources.

  19. Using a Simple Binomial Model to Assess Improvement in Predictive

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Capability: Sequential Bayesian Inference, Hypothesis Testing, and Power Analysis (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Using a Simple Binomial Model to Assess Improvement in Predictive Capability: Sequential Bayesian Inference, Hypothesis Testing, and Power Analysis Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Using a Simple Binomial Model to Assess Improvement in Predictive Capability: Sequential Bayesian Inference, Hypothesis Testing, and Power Analysis We present a

  20. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Preliminary Findings

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Brothers, Alan J.; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-07-16

    Often the methodologies for assessing proliferation risk are focused around the inherent vulnerability of nuclear energy systems and associated safeguards. For example an accepted approach involves ways to measure the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers to potential proliferation. This paper describes preliminary investigation into non-traditional use of social and cultural information to improve proliferation assessment and advance the approach to assessing nuclear material diversion. Proliferation resistance assessment, safeguard assessments and related studies typically create technical information about the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to diversion of nuclear material. The purpose of this research project is to find ways to integrate social information with technical information by explicitly considering the role of culture, groups and/or individuals to factors that impact the possibility of proliferation. When final, this work is expected to describe and demonstrate the utility of social science modeling in proliferation and proliferation risk assessments.

  1. A Population Health Model for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-05-01

    This paper presents the initial results of a project to develop a population health model so we can extend the scenarios included in the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios to include population health status.

  2. An introduction to the COALTOWN impact assessment model. Staff report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bender, L.D.; Temple, G.S.; Parcels, L.C.

    1980-04-01

    The report is a layman's description of the COALTOWN simulation model. COALTOWN simulates future employment, population, wages, migration, state and local tax receipts and intergovernmental transfers, and local government expenditures for counties in Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota. It is designed to assess impacts of energy projects. Input data and output formats and uses of the model are described. The predictive accuracy of the estimated equations and the model limitations and shortcomings are cited.

  3. Assessment of Combustion and Turbulence Models for the Simulation of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Combustion Processes in a DI Diesel Engine | Department of Energy Combustion and Turbulence Models for the Simulation of Combustion Processes in a DI Diesel Engine Assessment of Combustion and Turbulence Models for the Simulation of Combustion Processes in a DI Diesel Engine Various applied combustion and turbulence models were investigated along with chemical kinetic mechanisms simulating a biodiesel-fueled engine deer09_ren.pdf (497.22 KB) More Documents & Publications Low Temperature

  4. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-05-24

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint.

  5. Model and Analytic Processes for Export License Assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thompson, Sandra E.; Whitney, Paul D.; Weimar, Mark R.; Wood, Thomas W.; Daly, Don S.; Brothers, Alan J.; Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Cook, Diane; Holder, Larry

    2011-09-29

    This paper represents the Department of Energy Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development (NA-22) Simulations, Algorithms and Modeling (SAM) Program's first effort to identify and frame analytical methods and tools to aid export control professionals in effectively predicting proliferation intent; a complex, multi-step and multi-agency process. The report focuses on analytical modeling methodologies that alone, or combined, may improve the proliferation export control license approval process. It is a follow-up to an earlier paper describing information sources and environments related to international nuclear technology transfer. This report describes the decision criteria used to evaluate modeling techniques and tools to determine which approaches will be investigated during the final 2 years of the project. The report also details the motivation for why new modeling techniques and tools are needed. The analytical modeling methodologies will enable analysts to evaluate the information environment for relevance to detecting proliferation intent, with specific focus on assessing risks associated with transferring dual-use technologies. Dual-use technologies can be used in both weapons and commercial enterprises. A decision-framework was developed to evaluate which of the different analytical modeling methodologies would be most appropriate conditional on the uniqueness of the approach, data availability, laboratory capabilities, relevance to NA-22 and Office of Arms Control and Nonproliferation (NA-24) research needs and the impact if successful. Modeling methodologies were divided into whether they could help micro-level assessments (e.g., help improve individual license assessments) or macro-level assessment. Macro-level assessment focuses on suppliers, technology, consumers, economies, and proliferation context. Macro-level assessment technologies scored higher in the area of uniqueness because less work has been done at the macro level. An approach to

  6. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  7. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol. 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios.

  8. Assessing the RELAPS-3D Heat Conduction Enclosure Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCann, Larry D.

    2008-09-30

    Three heat conduction problems that have exact solutions are modeled with RELAP5-3D using the conduction enclosure model. These comparisons are designed to be used in the RELAP5-3D development assessment scheduled to be completed in 2009. It is shown that with proper input choices and adequate model detail the exact solutions can be matched. In addition, this analysis identified an error and the required correction in the cylindrical and spherical heat conductor models in RELAP5-3D which will be corrected in a future version of RELAP5-3D.

  9. An integrated assessment of global and regional water demands for electricity generation to 2095

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davies, Evan; Kyle, G. Page; Edmonds, James A.

    2013-02-01

    Electric power plants currently account for approximately one-half of the global industrial water withdrawal. While continued expansion of the electric sector seems likely into the future, the consequent water demands are quite uncertain, and will depend on highly variable water intensities by electricity technologies, at present and in the future. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change, we first establish lower-bound, median, and upper-bound estimates for present-day electric sector water withdrawals and consumption by individual electric generation technologies in each of 14 geopolitical regions, and compare them with available estimates of regional industrial or electric sector water use. We then explore the evolution of global and regional electric sector water use over the next century, focusing on uncertainties related to withdrawal and consumption intensities for a variety of electric generation technologies, rates of change of power plant cooling system types, and rates of adoption of a suite of water-saving technologies. Results reveal that the water withdrawal intensity of electricity generation is likely to decrease in the near term with capital stock turnover, as wet towers replace once-through flow cooling systems and advanced electricity generation technologies replace conventional ones. An increase in consumptive use accompanies the decrease in water withdrawal rates; however, a suite of water conservation technologies currently under development could compensate for this increase in consumption. Finally, at a regional scale, water use characteristics vary significantly based on characteristics of the existing capital stock and the selection of electricity generation technologies into the future.

  10. Fuel cycle assessment: A compendium of models, methodologies, and approaches

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-07-01

    The purpose of this document is to profile analytical tools and methods which could be used in a total fuel cycle analysis. The information in this document provides a significant step towards: (1) Characterizing the stages of the fuel cycle. (2) Identifying relevant impacts which can feasibly be evaluated quantitatively or qualitatively. (3) Identifying and reviewing other activities that have been conducted to perform a fuel cycle assessment or some component thereof. (4) Reviewing the successes/deficiencies and opportunities/constraints of previous activities. (5) Identifying methods and modeling techniques/tools that are available, tested and could be used for a fuel cycle assessment.

  11. Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

    2005-12-01

    We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such models do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3

  12. PORFLOW Modeling Supporting The H-Tank Farm Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, J. M.; Flach, G. P.; Westbrook, M. L.

    2012-08-31

    Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in the vadose and saturated zones have been conducted using the PORFLOW code in support of an overall Performance Assessment (PA) of the H-Tank Farm. This report provides technical detail on selected aspects of PORFLOW model development and describes the structure of the associated electronic files. The PORFLOW models for the H-Tank Farm PA, Rev. 1 were updated with grout, solubility, and inventory changes. The aquifer model was refined. In addition, a set of flow sensitivity runs were performed to allow flow to be varied in the related probabilistic GoldSim models. The final PORFLOW concentration values are used as input into a GoldSim dose calculator.

  13. Literature Review and Assessment of Plant and Animal Transfer Factors Used in Performance Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Robertson, David E.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Sasser, Lyle B.

    2003-07-20

    A literature review and assessment was conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to update information on plant and animal radionuclide transfer factors used in performance-assessment modeling. A group of 15 radionuclides was included in this review and assessment. The review is composed of four main sections, not including the Introduction. Section 2.0 provides a review of the critically important issue of physicochemical speciation and geochemistry of the radionuclides in natural soil-water systems as it relates to the bioavailability of the radionuclides. Section 3.0 provides an updated review of the parameters of importance in the uptake of radionuclides by plants, including root uptake via the soil-groundwater system and foliar uptake due to overhead irrigation. Section 3.0 also provides a compilation of concentration ratios (CRs) for soil-to-plant uptake for the 15 selected radionuclides. Section 4.0 provides an updated review on radionuclide uptake data for animal products related to absorption, homeostatic control, approach to equilibration, chemical and physical form, diet, and age. Compiled transfer coefficients are provided for cow’s milk, sheep’s milk, goat’s milk, beef, goat meat, pork, poultry, and eggs. Section 5.0 discusses the use of transfer coefficients in soil, plant, and animal modeling using regulatory models for evaluating radioactive waste disposal or decommissioned sites. Each section makes specific suggestions for future research in its area.

  14. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

  15. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  16. A preliminary study to Assess Model Uncertainties in Fluid Flows

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Marc Oliver Delchini; Jean C. Ragusa

    2009-09-01

    The goal of this study is to assess the impact of various flow models for a simplified primary coolant loop of a light water nuclear reactor. The various fluid flow models are based on the Euler equations with an additional friction term, gravity term, momentum source, and energy source. The geometric model is purposefully chosen simple and consists of a one-dimensional (1D) loop system in order to focus the study on the validity of various fluid flow approximations. The 1D loop system is represented by a rectangle; the fluid is heated up along one of the vertical legs and cooled down along the opposite leg. A pressurizer and a pump are included in the horizontal legs. The amount of energy transferred and removed from the system is equal in absolute value along the two vertical legs. The various fluid flow approximations are compressible vs. incompressible, and complete momentum equation vs. Darcys approximation. The ultimate goal is to compute the fluid flow models uncertainties and, if possible, to generate validity ranges for these models when applied to reactor analysis. We also limit this study to single phase flows with low-Mach numbers. As a result, sound waves carry a very small amount of energy in this particular case. A standard finite volume method is used for the spatial discretization of the system.

  17. An Inspector's Assessment of the New Model Safeguards Approach for Enrichment Plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Michael M.

    2007-07-31

    This conference paper assesses the changes that are being made to the Model Safeguards Approach for Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants.

  18. Status of thermalhydraulic modelling and assessment: Open issues

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bestion, D.; Barre, F.

    1997-07-01

    This paper presents the status of the physical modelling in present codes used for Nuclear Reactor Thermalhydraulics (TRAC, RELAP 5, CATHARE, ATHLET,...) and attempts to list the unresolved or partially resolved issues. First, the capabilities and limitations of present codes are presented. They are mainly known from a synthesis of the assessment calculations performed for both separate effect tests and integral effect tests. It is also interesting to list all the assumptions and simplifications which were made in the establishment of the system of equations and of the constitutive relations. Many of the present limitations are associated to physical situations where these assumptions are not valid. Then, recommendations are proposed to extend the capabilities of these codes.

  19. Assessment of PWR waterside corrosion models and data. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cox, B.

    1985-10-01

    The published data on waterside corrosion of PWR fuel cladding and unfuelled components have been reviewed, and the models used to assess the data have been studied. All corrosion models use too simplified a view of the corrosion process to obtain other than a general trend for the actual oxidation data. The in-reactor post-transition oxidation of the Zircaloys appears to be heavily dependent on water chemistry variations both between reactors, and along the length of an individual fuel rod. Crud deposition may be one primary cause of this, perhaps by allowing the independent development of the water chemistry within the crud layer, as much as by its effect on cladding surface temperatures. However, the effect of the thickening of the oxide film, which permits the development of an independent water chemistry inside the oxide, leading to an accelerating oxidation rate at large oxide thicknesses, seems to be the most important factor. It is concluded that a spectrum of results ranging from essentially no in-reactor enhancement of the oxidation rate to a sizeable enhancement (>10) may be seen depending upon the thickness of the oxide films, the water chemistry of the reactor, and crud deposition. A post-irradiation test that may help to distinguish between the factors involved has been suggested. 105 refs., 38 figs.

  20. Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment - Enhancing a Facility-Level Model for Proliferation Resistance Assessment of a Nuclear Enegry System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Gastelum, Zoe N.; Olson, Jarrod; Thompson, Sandra E.

    2009-10-26

    The Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment project (PL09-UtilSocial) investigates the use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessments, including nonproliferation assessments, Proliferation Resistance (PR) assessments, safeguards assessments, and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about a host State and its posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system (NES) to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This objective of this project is to find and integrate social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social, and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation; and to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment. This report describes a modeling approach and how it might be used to support a location-specific assessment of the PR assessment of a particular NES. The report demonstrates the use of social modeling to enhance an existing assessment process that relies on primarily technical factors. This effort builds on a literature review and preliminary assessment performed as the first stage of the project and compiled in PNNL-18438. [ T his report describes an effort to answer questions about whether it is possible to incorporate social modeling into a PR assessment in such a way that we can determine the effects of social factors on a primarily technical assessment. This report provides: 1. background information about relevant social factors literature; 2. background information about a particular PR assessment approach relevant to this particular demonstration; 3. a discussion of social modeling undertaken to find and characterize social factors that are relevant to the PR assessment of a nuclear facility in a specific location; 4. description of an enhancement concept that integrates social factors into an existing, technically

  1. THE PENA BLANCA NATURAL ANALOGUE PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G.J. Saulnier Jr; W. Statham

    2006-03-10

    The Nopal I uranium mine in the Sierra Pena Blanca, Chihuahua, Mexico serves as a natural analogue to the Yucca Mountain repository. The Pena Blanca Natural Analogue Performance Assessment Model simulates the mobilization and transport of radionuclides that are released from the mine and transported to the saturated zone. the Pena Blanca Natural Analogue Model uses probabilistic simulations of hydrogeologic processes that are analogous to the processes that occur at the Yucca Mountain site. The Nopal I uranium deposit lies in fractured, welded, and altered rhyolitic ash flow tuffs that overlie carbonate rocks, a setting analogous to the geologic formations at the Yucca Mountain site. The Nopal I mine site has the following characteristics as compared to the Yucca Mountain repository site. (1) Analogous source: UO{sub 2} uranium ore deposit = spent nuclear fuel in the repository; (2) Analogous geologic setting: fractured, welded, and altered rhyolitic ash flow tuffs overlying carbonate rocks; (3) Analogous climate: Semiarid to arid; (4) Analogous geochemistry: Oxidizing conditions; and (5) Analogous hydrogeology: The ore deposit lies in the unsaturated zone above the water table. The Nopal I deposit is approximately 8 {+-} 0.5 million years old and has been exposed to oxidizing conditions during the last 3.2 to 3.4 million years. The Pena Blanca Natural Analogue Model considers that the uranium oxide and uranium silicates in the ore deposit were originally analogous to uranium-oxide spent nuclear fuel. The Pena Blanca site has been characterized using field and laboratory investigations of its fault and fracture distribution, mineralogy, fracture fillings, seepage into the mine adits, regional hydrology, and mineralization that shows the extent of radionuclide migration. Three boreholes were drilled at the Nopal I mine site in 2003 and these boreholes have provided samples for lithologic characterization, water-level measurements, and water samples for laboratory

  2. Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestration and Land Use Emissions Using Detailed Model Results and Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dr. Atul Jain

    2005-04-17

    This report outlines the progress on the development and application of Integrated Assessment Modeling of Carbon Sequestrations and Land Use Emissions supported by the DOE Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DOE-DE-FG02-01ER63069. The overall objective of this collaborative project between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was to unite the latest advances in carbon cycle research with scientifically based models and policy-related integrated assessment tools that incorporate computationally efficient representations of the latest knowledge concerning science and emission trajectories, and their policy implications. As part of this research we accomplished the following tasks that we originally proposed: (1) In coordination with LLNL and ORNL, we enhanced the Integrated Science Assessment Model's (ISAM) parametric representation of the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycles that better represent spatial and seasonal variations, which are important to study the mechanisms that influence carbon sequestration in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems; (2) Using the MiniCAM modeling capability, we revised the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios; IPCC, 2000) land use emission scenarios; and (3) On the application front, the enhanced version of ISAM modeling capability is applied to understand how short- and long-term natural carbon fluxes, carbon sequestration, and human emissions contribute to the net global emissions (concentrations) trajectories required to reach various concentration (emission) targets. Under this grant, 21 research publications were produced. In addition, this grant supported a number of graduate and undergraduate students whose fundamental research was to learn a disciplinary field in climate change (e.g., ecological dynamics and

  3. A HTAP multi-model assessment of the influence of regional emission...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Title: A HTAP multi-model assessment of the influence of regional emission reductions on aerosol direct radiative forcing and the role of intercontinental transport Authors: Yu, H ...

  4. Computation Modeling and Assessment of Nanocoatings for Ultra Supercritical Boilers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    J. Shingledecker; D. Gandy; N. Cheruvu; R. Wei; K. Chan

    2011-06-21

    Forced outages and boiler unavailability of coal-fired fossil plants is most often caused by fire-side corrosion of boiler waterwalls and tubing. Reliable coatings are required for Ultrasupercritical (USC) application to mitigate corrosion since these boilers will operate at a much higher temperatures and pressures than in supercritical (565 C {at} 24 MPa) boilers. Computational modeling efforts have been undertaken to design and assess potential Fe-Cr-Ni-Al systems to produce stable nanocrystalline coatings that form a protective, continuous scale of either Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} or Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}. The computational modeling results identified a new series of Fe-25Cr-40Ni with or without 10 wt.% Al nanocrystalline coatings that maintain long-term stability by forming a diffusion barrier layer at the coating/substrate interface. The computational modeling predictions of microstructure, formation of continuous Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} scale, inward Al diffusion, grain growth, and sintering behavior were validated with experimental results. Advanced coatings, such as MCrAl (where M is Fe, Ni, or Co) nanocrystalline coatings, have been processed using different magnetron sputtering deposition techniques. Several coating trials were performed and among the processing methods evaluated, the DC pulsed magnetron sputtering technique produced the best quality coating with a minimum number of shallow defects and the results of multiple deposition trials showed that the process is repeatable. scale, inward Al diffusion, grain growth, and sintering behavior were validated with experimental results. The cyclic oxidation test results revealed that the nanocrystalline coatings offer better oxidation resistance, in terms of weight loss, localized oxidation, and formation of mixed oxides in the Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} scale, than widely used MCrAlY coatings. However, the ultra-fine grain structure in these coatings, consistent with the computational model predictions, resulted in accelerated Al

  5. Assessing Models of Public Understanding In ELSI Outreach Materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bruce V. Lewenstein, Ph.D.; Dominique Brossard, Ph.D.

    2006-03-01

    issues has been used in educational public settings to affect public understanding of science. After a theoretical background discussion, our approach is three-fold. First, we will provide an overview, a ?map? of DOE-funded of outreach programs within the overall ELSI context to identify the importance of the educational component, and to present the criteria we used to select relevant and representative case studies. Second, we will document the history of the case studies. Finally, we will explore an intertwined set of research questions: (1) To identify what we can expect such projects to accomplish -in other words to determine the goals that can reasonably be achieved by different types of outreach, (2) To point out how the case study approach could be useful for DOE-ELSI outreach as a whole, and (3) To use the case study approach as a basis to test theoretical models of science outreach in order to assess to what extent those models accord with real world outreach activities. For this last goal, we aim at identifying what practices among ELSI outreach activities contribute most to dissemination, or to participation, in other words in which cases outreach materials spark action in terms of public participation in decisions about scientific issues.

  6. Models used to assess the performance of photovoltaic systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Klise, Geoffrey T.

    2009-12-01

    This report documents the various photovoltaic (PV) performance models and software developed and utilized by researchers at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in support of the Photovoltaics and Grid Integration Department. In addition to PV performance models, hybrid system and battery storage models are discussed. A hybrid system using other distributed sources and energy storage can help reduce the variability inherent in PV generation, and due to the complexity of combining multiple generation sources and system loads, these models are invaluable for system design and optimization. Energy storage plays an important role in reducing PV intermittency and battery storage models are used to understand the best configurations and technologies to store PV generated electricity. Other researcher's models used by SNL are discussed including some widely known models that incorporate algorithms developed at SNL. There are other models included in the discussion that are not used by or were not adopted from SNL research but may provide some benefit to researchers working on PV array performance, hybrid system models and energy storage. The paper is organized into three sections to describe the different software models as applied to photovoltaic performance, hybrid systems, and battery storage. For each model, there is a description which includes where to find the model, whether it is currently maintained and any references that may be available. Modeling improvements underway at SNL include quantifying the uncertainty of individual system components, the overall uncertainty in modeled vs. measured results and modeling large PV systems. SNL is also conducting research into the overall reliability of PV systems.

  7. Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

    2015-01-15

    The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

  8. Models Used to Assess the Performance of Photovoltaic Systems

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This report documents the various photovoltaic (PV) performance models and software developed and utilized by researchers at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in support of the Photovoltaics and Grid Integration Department. In addition to PV performance models, hybrid system and battery storage models are discussed. A hybrid system using other distributed sources and energy storage can help reduce the variability inherent in PV generation, and due to the complexity of combining multiple generation sources and system loads, these models are invaluable for system design and optimization.

  9. A new analytic-adaptive model for EGS assessment, development...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    ability to quantitative test hypotheses for new EGS designs and technologies, as well as reservoir sustainability modeling. Funding Source American Recovery and Reinvestment Act...

  10. Co-benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) Screening Model | Open Energy...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Ease of Use: Simple Website: www.epa.govstatelocalclimateresourcescobra.html Cost: Free Related Tools Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE) Model Simple...

  11. Assessment of Combustion and Turbulence Models for the Simulation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Various applied combustion and turbulence models were investigated along with chemical kinetic mechanisms simulating a biodiesel-fueled engine deer09ren.pdf (497.22 KB) More ...

  12. Conceptual design of an integrated technology model for carbon policy assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Backus, George A.; Dimotakes, Paul E.

    2011-01-01

    This report describes the conceptual design of a technology choice model for understanding strategies to reduce carbon intensity in the electricity sector. The report considers the major modeling issues affecting technology policy assessment and defines an implementable model construct. Further, the report delineates the basis causal structure of such a model and attempts to establish the technical/algorithmic viability of pursuing model development along with the associated analyses.

  13. As-Built Modeling of Ojbects for Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kokko, E J; Martz, H E; Chinn, D J; Childs, H R; Jackson, J A; Chambers, D H; Schneberk, D J; Clark, G A

    2005-09-12

    The goal of ''as-built'' computational modeling is to incorporate the most representative geometry and material information for an (fabricated or legacy) object into simulations. While most engineering finite element simulations are based on an object's idealized ''as-designed'' configuration with information obtained from technical drawings or computer-aided design models, ''as-built'' modeling uses nondestructive characterization and metrology techniques to provide the feature information. By incorporating more representative geometry and material features as initial conditions, the uncertainty in the simulation results can be reduced, providing a more realistic understanding of the event and object being modeled. In this paper, key steps and technology areas in the as-built modeling framework are: (1) inspection using non-destructive characterization (NDC) and metrology techniques; (2) data reduction (signal and image processing including artifact removal, data sensor fusion, and geometric feature extraction); and (3) engineering and physics analysis using finite element codes. We illustrate the process with a cylindrical phantom and include a discussion of the key concepts and areas that need improvement. Our results show that reasonable as-built initial conditions based on a volume overlap criteria can be achieved and that notable differences between simulations of the as-built and as-designed configurations can be observed for a given load case. Specifically, a volume averaged difference of accumulated plastic strain of 3% and local spatially varying differences up to 10%. The example presented provides motivation and justification to engineering teams for the additional effort required in the as-built modeling of high value parts. Further validation of the approach has been proposed as future work.

  14. Utility of Social Modeling in Assessment of a State’s Propensity for Nuclear Proliferation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Dalton, Angela C.; Olson, Jarrod; White, Amanda M.; Cooley, Scott K.; Youchak, Paul M.; Stafford, Samuel V.

    2011-06-01

    This report is the third and final report out of a set of three reports documenting research for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Security Administration (NASA) Office of Nonproliferation Research and Development NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling program that investigates how social modeling can be used to improve proliferation assessment for informing nuclear security, policy, safeguards, design of nuclear systems and research decisions. Social modeling has not to have been used to any significant extent in a proliferation studies. This report focuses on the utility of social modeling as applied to the assessment of a State's propensity to develop a nuclear weapons program.

  15. Climate Change Modeling and Downscaling Issues and Methodological Perspectives for the U.S. National Climate Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Janetos, Anthony C.; Collins, William D.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah; Hayhoe, Katharine; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Hurtt, George

    2012-03-31

    This is the full workshop report for the modeling workshop we did for the National Climate Assessment, with DOE support.

  16. Baseline Assessment of TREAT for Modeling and Analysis Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bess, John Darrell; DeHart, Mark David

    2015-10-01

    TREAT is an air-cooled, graphite moderated, thermal, heterogeneous test facility designed to evaluate reactor fuels and structural materials under conditions simulating various types of nuclear excursions and transient undercooling situations that could occur in a nuclear reactor. After 21 years in a standby mode, TREAT is being re-activated to revive transient testing capabilities. Given the time elapsed and the concurrent loss of operating experience, current generation and advanced computational methods are being applied to begin TREAT modeling and simulation prior to renewed at-power operations. Such methods have limited value in predicting the behavior of TREAT without proper validation. Hence, the U.S. DOE has developed a number of programs to support development of benchmarks for both critical and transient operations. Extensive effort has been expended at INL to collect detailed descriptions, drawings and specifications for all aspects of TREAT, and to resolve conflicting data found through this process. This report provides a collection of these data, with updated figures that are significantly more readable than historic drawings and illustrations, compositions, and dimensions based on the best available sources. This document is not nor should it be considered to be a benchmark report. Rather, it is intended to provide one-stop shopping, to the extent possible, for other work that seeks to prepare detailed, accurate models of the core and its components. Given the nature of the variety of historic documents available and the loss of institutional memory, the only completely accurate database of TREAT data is TREAT itself. Unfortunately, disassembly of TREAT for inspection, assay, and measurement is highly unlikely. Hence the data provided herein is intended serve as a best-estimate substitute.

  17. Computational Modeling and Assessment Of Nanocoatings for Ultra Supercritical Boilers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David W. Gandy; John P. Shingledecker

    2011-04-11

    Forced outages and boiler unavailability in conventional coal-fired fossil power plants is most often caused by fireside corrosion of boiler waterwalls. Industry-wide, the rate of wall thickness corrosion wastage of fireside waterwalls in fossil-fired boilers has been of concern for many years. It is significant that the introduction of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission controls with staged burners systems has increased reported waterwall wastage rates to as much as 120 mils (3 mm) per year. Moreover, the reducing environment produced by the low-NOx combustion process is the primary cause of accelerated corrosion rates of waterwall tubes made of carbon and low alloy steels. Improved coatings, such as the MCrAl nanocoatings evaluated here (where M is Fe, Ni, and Co), are needed to reduce/eliminate waterwall damage in subcritical, supercritical, and ultra-supercritical (USC) boilers. The first two tasks of this six-task project-jointly sponsored by EPRI and the U.S. Department of Energy (DE-FC26-07NT43096)-have focused on computational modeling of an advanced MCrAl nanocoating system and evaluation of two nanocrystalline (iron and nickel base) coatings, which will significantly improve the corrosion and erosion performance of tubing used in USC boilers. The computational model results showed that about 40 wt.% is required in Fe based nanocrystalline coatings for long-term durability, leading to a coating composition of Fe-25Cr-40Ni-10 wt.% Al. In addition, the long term thermal exposure test results further showed accelerated inward diffusion of Al from the nanocrystalline coatings into the substrate. In order to enhance the durability of these coatings, it is necessary to develop a diffusion barrier interlayer coating such TiN and/or AlN. The third task 'Process Advanced MCrAl Nanocoating Systems' of the six-task project jointly sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI and the U.S. Department of Energy (DE-FC26-07NT43096)- has focused on processing of

  18. EERE Success Story-MA3T Model Application at ORNL Assesses the Future of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Fuel Cell Markets | Department of Energy MA3T Model Application at ORNL Assesses the Future of Fuel Cell Markets EERE Success Story-MA3T Model Application at ORNL Assesses the Future of Fuel Cell Markets July 26, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis Leveraging funding from the Fuel Cell Technologies Office, Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL) has developed a model for simulating the market potential of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and challenges to achieving success over time, including competition with

  19. Common-Cause Failure Treatment in Event Assessment: Basis for a Proposed New Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dana Kelly; Song-Hua Shen; Gary DeMoss; Kevin Coyne; Don Marksberry

    2010-06-01

    Event assessment is an application of probabilistic risk assessment in which observed equipment failures and outages are mapped into the risk model to obtain a numerical estimate of the events risk significance. In this paper, we focus on retrospective assessments to estimate the risk significance of degraded conditions such as equipment failure accompanied by a deficiency in a process such as maintenance practices. In modeling such events, the basic events in the risk model that are associated with observed failures and other off-normal situations are typically configured to be failed, while those associated with observed successes and unchallenged components are assumed capable of failing, typically with their baseline probabilities. This is referred to as the failure memory approach to event assessment. The conditioning of common-cause failure probabilities for the common cause component group associated with the observed component failure is particularly important, as it is insufficient to simply leave these probabilities at their baseline values, and doing so may result in a significant underestimate of risk significance for the event. Past work in this area has focused on the mathematics of the adjustment. In this paper, we review the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, which underlies most current risk modelling, discuss the limitations of this model with respect to event assessment, and introduce a proposed new framework for common-cause failure, which uses a Bayesian network to model underlying causes of failure, and which has the potential to overcome the limitations of the Basic Parameter Model with respect to event assessment.

  20. Source-term development for a contaminant plume for use by multimedia risk assessment models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whelan, Gene ); McDonald, John P. ); Taira, Randal Y. ); Gnanapragasam, Emmanuel K.; Yu, Charley; Lew, Christine S.; Mills, William B.

    1999-12-01

    Multimedia modelers from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to conduct a comprehensive and quantitative benchmarking analysis of four intermedia models: DOE's Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), EPA's MMSOILS, EPA's PRESTO, and DOE's RESidual RADioactivity (RESRAD). These models represent typical analytically, semi-analytically, and empirically based tools that are utilized in human risk and endangerment assessments for use at installations containing radioactive and/or hazardous contaminants. Although the benchmarking exercise traditionally emphasizes the application and comparison of these models, the establishment of a Conceptual Site Model (CSM) should be viewed with equal importance. This paper reviews an approach for developing a CSM of an existing, real-world, Sr-90 plume at DOE's Hanford installation in Richland, Washington, for use in a multimedia-based benchmarking exercise bet ween MEPAS, MMSOILS, PRESTO, and RESRAD. In an unconventional move for analytically based modeling, the benchmarking exercise will begin with the plume as the source of contamination. The source and release mechanism are developed and described within the context of performing a preliminary risk assessment utilizing these analytical models. By beginning with the plume as the source term, this paper reviews a typical process and procedure an analyst would follow in developing a CSM for use in a preliminary assessment using this class of analytical tool.

  1. Systematic Assessment of Neutron and Gamma Backgrounds Relevant to Operational Modeling and Detection Technology Implementation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Archer, Daniel E.; Hornback, Donald Eric; Johnson, Jeffrey O.; Nicholson, Andrew D.; Patton, Bruce W.; Peplow, Douglas E.; Miller, Thomas Martin; Ayaz-Maierhafer, Birsen

    2015-01-01

    This report summarizes the findings of a two year effort to systematically assess neutron and gamma backgrounds relevant to operational modeling and detection technology implementation. The first year effort focused on reviewing the origins of background sources and their impact on measured rates in operational scenarios of interest. The second year has focused on the assessment of detector and algorithm performance as they pertain to operational requirements against the various background sources and background levels.

  2. SOCIAL MODELING IN ASSESSEMENT OF A STATES PROPENSITY FOR NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.

    2011-07-17

    This paper presents approach for assessing a States propensity for nuclear weapons proliferation using social modeling. We supported this modeling by first reviewing primarily literature by social scientists on factors related to the propensity of a State to proliferation and by leveraging existing relevant data compiled by social scientists. We performed a number of validation tests on our model including one that incorporates use of benchmark data defining the proliferation status of countries in the years between 1945 and 2000. We exercise the BN model against a number of country cases representing different perceived levels of proliferation risk. We also describe how the BN model could be further refined to be a proliferation assessment tool for decision making.

  3. Verification and validation of the decision analysis model for assessment of tank waste remediation system waste treatment strategies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Awadalla, N.G.; Eaton, S.C.F.

    1996-09-04

    This document is the verification and validation final report for the Decision Analysis Model for Assessment of Tank Waste Remediation System Waste Treatment Strategies. This model is also known as the INSIGHT Model.

  4. Assessment of Drag Models for Geldart A Particles in Bubbling Fluidized Beds

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Estejab, Bahareh; Battaglia, Francine

    2015-10-08

    In order to accurately predict the hydrodynamic behavior of gas and solid phases using an Eulerian–Eulerian approach, it is crucial to use appropriate drag models to capture the correct physics. In this study, the performance of seven drag models for fluidization of Geldart A particles of coal, poplar wood, and their mixtures was assessed. In spite of the previous findings that bode badly for using predominately Geldart B drag models for fine particles, the results of our study revealed that if static regions of mass in the fluidized beds are considered, these drag models work well with Geldart A particles. It was found that drag models derived from empirical relationships adopt better with Geldart A particles compared to drag models that were numerically developed. Overall, the Huilin–Gidaspow drag model showed the best performance for both single solid phases and binary mixtures, however, for binary mixtures, Wen–Yu model predictions were also accurate.

  5. SUMO, System performance assessment for a high-level nuclear waste repository: Mathematical models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eslinger, P.W.; Miley, T.B.; Engel, D.W.; Chamberlain, P.J. II

    1992-09-01

    Following completion of the preliminary risk assessment of the potential Yucca Mountain Site by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) in 1988, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) requested the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL to develop an integrated system model and computer code that provides performance and risk assessment analysis capabilities for a potential high-level nuclear waste repository. The system model that has been developed addresses the cumulative radionuclide release criteria established by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and estimates population risks in terms of dose to humans. The system model embodied in the SUMO (System Unsaturated Model) code will also allow benchmarking of other models being developed for the Yucca Mountain Project. The system model has three natural divisions: (1) source term, (2) far-field transport, and (3) dose to humans. This document gives a detailed description of the mathematics of each of these three divisions. Each of the governing equations employed is based on modeling assumptions that are widely accepted within the scientific community.

  6. Assessment of PWR Steam Generator modelling in RELAP5/MOD2. International Agreement Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Putney, J.M.; Preece, R.J.

    1993-06-01

    An assessment of Steam Generator (SG) modelling in the PWR thermal-hydraulic code RELAP5/MOD2 is presented. The assessment is based on a review of code assessment calculations performed in the UK and elsewhere, detailed calculations against a series of commissioning tests carried out on the Wolf Creek PWR and analytical investigations of the phenomena involved in normal and abnormal SG operation. A number of modelling deficiencies are identified and their implications for PWR safety analysis are discussed -- including methods for compensating for the deficiencies through changes to the input deck. Consideration is also given as to whether the deficiencies will still be present in the successor code RELAP5/MOD3.

  7. An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Randerson, James T [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Bonan, Gordon [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Erickson III, David J [ORNL; Fung, Inez [University of California, Berkeley

    2009-12-01

    The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon

  8. Assessment

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assessment of the Surveillance Program of the High-Level Waste Storage Tanks at Hanford :.~I LALI i~E REJ 163 ROOM 1t 4 F77L.~ ~ -_77 .:earmn OfEeg Asitn Sertr fo niomn 4 z. r _________ rment of the Surveilance Prograrn of the High-Level Storage- Tanks at Hanford P. E WOOD Robert J. Catln, Deputy Directat - Office of Environmental Compliance and Overview Office of Environment MARCH 1980 Report to the U.S. Departrent of Energy Assistant Secretary for Environment Washkngon, DC C March 27, 1980

  9. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    DOE R&D Accomplishments [OSTI]

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  10. Preliminary assessment of PWR Steam Generator modelling in RELAP5/MOD3. International Agreeement Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Preece, R.J.; Putney, J.M.

    1993-07-01

    A preliminary assessment of Steam Generator (SG) modelling in the PWR thermal-hydraulic code RELAP5/MOD3 is presented. The study is based on calculations against a series of steady-state commissioning tests carried out on the Wolf Creek PWR over a range of load conditions. Data from the tests are used to assess the modelling of primary to secondary side heat transfer and, in particular, to examine the effect of reverting to the standard form of the Chen heat transfer correlation in place of the modified form applied in RELAP5/MOD2. Comparisons between the two versions of the code are also used to show how the new interphase drag model in RELAP5/MOD3 affects the calculation of SG liquid inventory and the void fraction profile in the riser.

  11. Annual report, October 1980-September 1981 Multimedia radionuclide exposure assessment modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whelan, G.; Onishi, Y.; Simmons, C.S.; Horst, T.W.; Gupta, S.K.; Orgill, M.M.; Newbill, C.A.

    1982-12-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) are jointly developing a methodology for assessing exposures of the air, water, and plants to radionuclides as part of an overall development effort of a radionuclide disposal site evaluation methodology. Work in FY-1981 continued the development of the Multimedia Contaminant Environmental Exposure Assessment (MCEA) methodology and initiated an assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons, New Mexico, using the methodology. The AIRTRAN model was completed, briefly tested, and documented. In addition, a literature search for existing validation data for AIRTRAN was performed. The feasibility and advisability of including the UNSAT moisture flow model as a submodel of the terrestrial code BIOTRAN was assessed. A preliminary application of the proposed MCEA methodology, as it related to the Mortandad-South Mortandad Canyon site in New Mexico is discussed. This preliminary application represented a scaled-down version of the methodology in which only the terrestrial, overland, and surface water components were used. An update describing the progress in the assessment of radionuclide migration in Los Alamos and Pueblo Canyons is presented. 38 references, 47 figures, 11 tables.

  12. Analysis report for WIPP colloid model constraints and performance assessment parameters

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mariner, Paul E.; Sassani, David Carl

    2014-03-01

    An analysis of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) colloid model constraints and parameter values was performed. The focus of this work was primarily on intrinsic colloids, mineral fragment colloids, and humic substance colloids, with a lesser focus on microbial colloids. Comments by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) concerning intrinsic Th(IV) colloids and Mg-Cl-OH mineral fragment colloids were addressed in detail, assumptions and data used to constrain colloid model calculations were evaluated, and inconsistencies between data and model parameter values were identified. This work resulted in a list of specific conclusions regarding model integrity, model conservatism, and opportunities for improvement related to each of the four colloid types included in the WIPP performance assessment.

  13. Model Components of the Certification Framework for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Bryant, Steven L.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Kumar, Navanit; Zhang, Yingqi; Jordan, Preston; Pan, Lehua; Granvold, Patrick; Chow, Fotini K.

    2009-06-01

    We have developed a framework for assessing the leakage risk of geologic carbon sequestration sites. This framework, known as the Certification Framework (CF), emphasizes wells and faults as the primary potential leakage conduits. Vulnerable resources are grouped into compartments, and impacts due to leakage are quantified by the leakage flux or concentrations that could potentially occur in compartments under various scenarios. The CF utilizes several model components to simulate leakage scenarios. One model component is a catalog of results of reservoir simulations that can be queried to estimate plume travel distances and times, rather than requiring CF users to run new reservoir simulations for each case. Other model components developed for the CF and described here include fault characterization using fault-population statistics; fault connection probability using fuzzy rules; well-flow modeling with a drift-flux model implemented in TOUGH2; and atmospheric dense-gas dispersion using a mesoscale weather prediction code.

  14. TSD-DOSE: A radiological dose assessment model for treatment, storage, and disposal facilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pfingston, M.; Arnish, J.; LePoire, D.; Chen, S.-Y.

    1998-10-14

    Past practices at US Department of Energy (DOE) field facilities resulted in the presence of trace amounts of radioactive materials in some hazardous chemical wastes shipped from these facilities. In May 1991, the DOE Office of Waste Operations issued a nationwide moratorium on shipping all hazardous waste until procedures could be established to ensure that only nonradioactive hazardous waste would be shipped from DOE facilities to commercial treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. To aid in assessing the potential impacts of shipments of mixed radioactive and chemically hazardous wastes, a radiological assessment computer model (or code) was developed on the basis of detailed assessments of potential radiological exposures and doses for eight commercial hazardous waste TSD facilities. The model, called TSD-DOSE, is designed to incorporate waste-specific and site-specific data to estimate potential radiological doses to on-site workers and the off-site public from waste-handling operations at a TSD facility. The code is intended to provide both DOE and commercial TSD facilities with a rapid and cost-effective method for assessing potential human radiation exposures from the processing of chemical wastes contaminated with trace amounts of radionuclides.

  15. Modeling threat assessments of water supply systems using markov latent effects methodology.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Silva, Consuelo Juanita

    2006-12-01

    Recent amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act emphasize efforts toward safeguarding our nation's water supplies against attack and contamination. Specifically, the Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 established requirements for each community water system serving more than 3300 people to conduct an assessment of the vulnerability of its system to a terrorist attack or other intentional acts. Integral to evaluating system vulnerability is the threat assessment, which is the process by which the credibility of a threat is quantified. Unfortunately, full probabilistic assessment is generally not feasible, as there is insufficient experience and/or data to quantify the associated probabilities. For this reason, an alternative approach is proposed based on Markov Latent Effects (MLE) modeling, which provides a framework for quantifying imprecise subjective metrics through possibilistic or fuzzy mathematics. Here, an MLE model for water systems is developed and demonstrated to determine threat assessments for different scenarios identified by the assailant, asset, and means. Scenario assailants include terrorists, insiders, and vandals. Assets include a water treatment plant, water storage tank, node, pipeline, well, and a pump station. Means used in attacks include contamination (onsite chemicals, biological and chemical), explosives and vandalism. Results demonstrated highest threats are vandalism events and least likely events are those performed by a terrorist.

  16. Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for BWR Shutdown Modes 4 and 5 Integrated in SPAR Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. T. Khericha; S. Sancakter; J. Mitman; J. Wood

    2010-06-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during modes 4, 5, and 6 can be significant This paper describes development of the standard template risk evaluation models for shutdown modes 4, and 5 for commercial boiling water nuclear power plants (BWR). The shutdown probabilistic risk assessment model uses full power Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRCs) Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The shutdown PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from SPAR full power model with shutdown event tree logic. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheet, including the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate HEP of interest. The preliminary results indicate the risk is dominated by the operators ability to diagnose the events and provide long term cooling.

  17. Chapter 6: Innovating Clean Energy Technologies in Advanced Manufacturing | Advanced Sensors, Controls, Platforms and Modeling for Manufacturing Technology Assessment

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Advanced Sensors, Controls, Platforms and Modeling for Manufacturing Chapter 6: Technology Assessments NOTE: This technology assessment is available as an appendix to the 2015 Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR). Advanced Sensors, Controls, Platforms and Modeling for Manufacturing is one of fourteen manufacturing-focused technology assessments prepared in support of Chapter 6: Innovating Clean Energy Technologies in Advanced Manufacturing. For context within the 2015 QTR, key connections between

  18. HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Webinar | April 26, 2016 | 12-1

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    p.m. EDT HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Webinar | April 26, 2016 | 12-1 p.m. EDT - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery

  19. Performance Assessment Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses of Generic Disposal System Concepts.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sevougian, S. David; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Gardner, William Payton; Hammond, Glenn Edward; Mariner, Paul

    2014-09-01

    directly, rather than through simplified abstractions. It also a llows for complex representations of the source term, e.g., the explicit representation of many individual waste packages (i.e., meter - scale detail of an entire waste emplacement drift). This report fulfills the Generic Disposal System Analysis Work Packa ge Level 3 Milestone - Performance Assessment Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses of Generic Disposal System Concepts (M 3 FT - 1 4 SN08080 3 2 ).

  20. Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tavoni, Massimo; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Aboumahboub, Tino; Bowen, Alex; Calvin, Katherine V.; Campiglio, Emanuele; Kober, Tom; Jewell, Jessica; Luderer, Gunnar; Marangoni, Giacomo; McCollum, David; van Sluisveld, Mariesse; Zimmer, Anne; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2014-12-15

    Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

  1. Model assessment of protective barriers: Part 4, Status of FY 1992 work

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fayer, M.J.

    1993-03-01

    Protective barriers are being considered for use at the Hanford Site to enhance the isolation of radioactive wastes from water, plant, and animal intrusion. This study is part of an ongoing effort to assess the effectiveness of protective barriers for isolation of wastes from water. Part I of this study was the original modeling assessment by Pacific Northwest Laboratory of various protective barrier designs (e.g., soil type, vegetation). In Part 11 of this study, additional barrier designs were reviewed and several barrier modeling assumptions were tested. A test plan was then produced that detailed the requirement for hydrologic modeling of protective barriers. Part III of this study summarized the status of work in FY 1990 dealing with two-dimensional flow beneath the barrier and with validation testing using lysimeter data. This report (Part IV) addresses the application of a calibrated model to a much longer data set, the application of the calibrated model to a lysimeter that received a different treatment, and the effect of hysteresis on the behavior of water in the protective barrier.

  2. Development of Simplified Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Seismic Initiating Event

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    S. Khericha; R. Buell; S. Sancaktar; M. Gonzalez; F. Ferrante

    2012-06-01

    ABSTRACT This paper discusses a simplified method to evaluate seismic risk using a methodology built on dividing the seismic intensity spectrum into multiple discrete bins. The seismic probabilistic risk assessment model uses Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRCs) full power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development. The seismic PRA models are integrated with their respective internal events at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the full power SPAR model with seismic event tree logic. The peak ground acceleration is divided into five bins. The g-value for each bin is estimated using the geometric mean of lower and upper values of that particular bin and the associated frequency for each bin is estimated by taking the difference between upper and lower values of that bin. The components fragilities are calculated for each bin using the plant data, if available, or generic values of median peak ground acceleration and uncertainty values for the components. For human reliability analysis (HRA), the SPAR HRA (SPAR-H) method is used which requires the analysts to complete relatively straight forward worksheets that include the performance shaping factors (PSFs). The results are then used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) of interest. This work is expected to improve the NRCs ability to include seismic hazards in risk assessments for operational events in support of the reactor oversight program (e.g., significance determination process).

  3. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greg J. Shott, Vefa Yucel, Lloyd Desotell; Non-Nstec Authors: G. Pyles and Jon Carilli

    2007-06-01

    Performance assessments for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site on the Nevada Test Site have used three different mathematical models to estimate Rn-222 flux density. This study describes the performance, uncertainty, and sensitivity of the three models which include the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 3.64 analytical method and two numerical methods. The uncertainty of each model was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using Latin hypercube sampling. The global sensitivity was investigated using Morris one-at-time screening method, sample-based correlation and regression methods, the variance-based extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and Sobol's sensitivity indices. The models were found to produce similar estimates of the mean and median flux density, but to have different uncertainties and sensitivities. When the Rn-222 effective diffusion coefficient was estimated using five different published predictive models, the radon flux density models were found to be most sensitive to the effective diffusion coefficient model selected, the emanation coefficient, and the radionuclide inventory. Using a site-specific measured effective diffusion coefficient significantly reduced the output uncertainty. When a site-specific effective-diffusion coefficient was used, the models were most sensitive to the emanation coefficient and the radionuclide inventory.

  4. Assessment of Drag Models for Geldart A Particles in Bubbling Fluidized Beds

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Estejab, Bahareh; Battaglia, Francine

    2015-10-08

    In order to accurately predict the hydrodynamic behavior of gas and solid phases using an Eulerian–Eulerian approach, it is crucial to use appropriate drag models to capture the correct physics. In this study, the performance of seven drag models for fluidization of Geldart A particles of coal, poplar wood, and their mixtures was assessed. In spite of the previous findings that bode badly for using predominately Geldart B drag models for fine particles, the results of our study revealed that if static regions of mass in the fluidized beds are considered, these drag models work well with Geldart A particles.more » It was found that drag models derived from empirical relationships adopt better with Geldart A particles compared to drag models that were numerically developed. Overall, the Huilin–Gidaspow drag model showed the best performance for both single solid phases and binary mixtures, however, for binary mixtures, Wen–Yu model predictions were also accurate.« less

  5. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

  6. Soil-to-Plant Concentration Ratios for Assessing Food Chain Pathways in Biosphere Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Fellows, Robert J.; Krupka, Kenneth M.

    2007-10-01

    This report describes work performed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissions project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report summarizes characteristics of samples of soils and groundwater from three geographical regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and analyses performed to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Because the uptake and behavior of radionuclides in plant roots, plant leaves, and animal products depends on the chemistry of the water and soil coming in contact with plants and animals, water and soil samples collected from these regions of the United States were used in experiments at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to determine radionuclide soil-to-plant concentration ratios. Crops and forage used in the experiments were grown in the soils, and long-lived radionuclides introduced into the groundwater provide the contaminated water used to water the grown plants. The radionuclides evaluated include 99Tc, 238Pu, and 241Am. Plant varieties include alfalfa, corn, onion, and potato. The radionuclide uptake results from this research study show how regional variations in water quality and soil chemistry affect radionuclide uptake. Section 3 summarizes the procedures and results of the uptake experiments, and relates the soil-to-plant uptake factors derived. In Section 4, the results found in this study are compared with similar values found in the biosphere modeling literature; the studys results are generally in line with current literature, but soil- and plant-specific differences are noticeable. This food-chain pathway data may be used by the NRC staff to assess dose to persons in the reference biosphere (e.g., persons who live and work in an area potentially affected by

  7. STOIC: An Assessment of Coupled Model Climatology and Variability in Tropical Ocean Regions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davey, M.K.; Sperber, K.R.; Huddleston, M

    2000-08-30

    The tropics are regions of strong ocean-atmosphere interaction on seasonal and interannual timescales, so a good representation of observed tropical behavior is a desirable objective for coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs). To broaden and update previous assessments (Mechoso et al. 1995, Neelin et al. 1992), two complementary projects were initiated by the CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP): the El Nino Simulation Intercomparison Project (ENSIP, by Mojib Latif) and STOIC (Study of Tropical Oceans In Coupled models). The aim was to compare models against observations to identify common weaknesses and strengths. Results from ENSIP concentrating on the equatorial Pacific have been described by Latif et al. (2000), hereafter ENSIP2000. A detailed report on STOIC is available via anonymous ftp at email.meto.gov.uk/pub/cr/ ''stoic'' and is summarized in Davey et al. (2000). The STOIC analyses extend beyond the equatorial Pacific, to examine behavior in all three tropical ocean regions.

  8. HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) v. 1.0 (alpha)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-12-19

    HyRAM is a software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, thermal pressure effects from deflagrations) on people and structures. HyRAM incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impactmore » of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of hydrogen release and flame physics. Version 1.0.0.280 can be used to quantify the likelihood and thermal consequences associated with gaseous hydrogen releases from user-defined hydrogen installations.« less

  9. HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) v. 1.0 (alpha)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Hecht, Ethan; Reynolds, John T.; Ekoto, Isaac W.; Walkup, Gregory W.

    2014-12-19

    HyRAM is a software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, thermal pressure effects from deflagrations) on people and structures. HyRAM incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of hydrogen release and flame physics. Version 1.0.0.280 can be used to quantify the likelihood and thermal consequences associated with gaseous hydrogen releases from user-defined hydrogen installations.

  10. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  11. Implementation of Localized Corrosion in the Performance Assessment Model for Yucca Mountain

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vivek Jain, S. David Sevougian, Patrick D. Mattie, Kevin G. Mon, and Robert J. Mackinnon

    2006-04-30

    A total system performance assessment (TSPA) model has been developed to analyze the ability of the natural and engineered barriers of the Yucca Mountain repository to isolate nuclear waste over the 10,000-year period following repository closure. The principal features of the engineered barrier system (EBS) are emplacement tunnels (or ''drifts'') containing a two-layer waste package (WP) for waste containment and a titanium drip shield to protect the waste package from seeping water and falling rock, The 20-mm-thick outer shell of the WP is composed of Alloy 22, a highly corrosion-resistant nickel-based alloy. The barrier function of the EBS is to isolate the waste from migrating water. The water and its associated chemical conditions eventually lead to degradation of the waste packages and mobilization of the radionuclides within the packages. There are five possible waste package degradation modes of the Alloy 22: general corrosion, microbially influenced corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, early failure due to manufacturing defects, and localized corrosion. This paper specifically examines the incorporation of the Alloy-22 localized corrosion model into the Yucca Mountain TSPA model, particularly the abstraction and modeling methodology, as well as issues dealing with scaling, spatial variability, uncertainty, and coupling to other sub-models that are part of the total system model.

  12. Economic analysis and assessment of syngas production using a modeling approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kim, Hakkwan; Parajuli, Prem B.; Yu, Fei; Columbus, Eugene P.

    2011-08-10

    Economic analysis and modeling are essential and important issues for the development of current feedstock and process technology for bio-gasification. The objective of this study was to develop an economic model and apply to predict the unit cost of syngas production from a micro-scale bio-gasification facility. An economic model was programmed in C++ computer programming language and developed using a parametric cost approach, which included processes to calculate the total capital costs and the total operating costs. The model used measured economic data from the bio-gasification facility at Mississippi State University. The modeling results showed that the unit cost of syngas production was $1.217 for a 60 Nm-3 h-1 capacity bio-gasifier. The operating cost was the major part of the total production cost. The equipment purchase cost and the labor cost were the largest part of the total capital cost and the total operating cost, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that labor costs rank the top as followed by equipment cost, loan life, feedstock cost, interest rate, utility cost, and waste treatment cost. The unit cost of syngas production increased with the increase of all parameters with exception of loan life. The annual cost regarding equipment, labor, feedstock, waste treatment, and utility cost showed a linear relationship with percent changes, while loan life and annual interest rate showed a non-linear relationship. This study provides the useful information for economic analysis and assessment of the syngas production using a modeling approach.

  13. Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

    2014-06-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understand from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.

  14. Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu; Calvin, Katherine; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kyle, Page; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall; Davies, Evan

    2016-01-22

    Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economicmore » growth, energy, land, and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater and desalinated water sources —across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in integrated assessment models and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.« less

  15. MODEL-BASED HYDROACOUSTIC BLOCKAGE ASSESSMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPLOSIVE SOURCE DATABASE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Matzel, E; Ramirez, A; Harben, P

    2005-07-11

    We are continuing the development of the Hydroacoustic Blockage Assessment Tool (HABAT) which is designed for use by analysts to predict which hydroacoustic monitoring stations can be used in discrimination analysis for any particular event. The research involves two approaches (1) model-based assessment of blockage, and (2) ground-truth data-based assessment of blockage. The tool presents the analyst with a map of the world, and plots raypath blockages from stations to sources. The analyst inputs source locations and blockage criteria, and the tool returns a list of blockage status from all source locations to all hydroacoustic stations. We are currently using the tool in an assessment of blockage criteria for simple direct-path arrivals. Hydroacoustic data, predominantly from earthquake sources, are read in and assessed for blockage at all available stations. Several measures are taken. First, can the event be observed at a station above background noise? Second, can we establish backazimuth from the station to the source. Third, how large is the decibel drop at one station relative to other stations. These observational results are then compared with model estimates to identify the best set of blockage criteria and used to create a set of blockage maps for each station. The model-based estimates are currently limited by the coarse bathymetry of existing databases and by the limitations inherent in the raytrace method. In collaboration with BBN Inc., the Hydroacoustic Coverage Assessment Model (HydroCAM) that generates the blockage files that serve as input to HABAT, is being extended to include high-resolution bathymetry databases in key areas that increase model-based blockage assessment reliability. An important aspect of this capability is to eventually include reflected T-phases where they reliably occur and to identify the associated reflectors. To assess how well any given hydroacoustic discriminant works in separating earthquake and in-water explosion

  16. Assessment of Multi-Scale T/H Codes and Models for DNB CP

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assessment of Multi-Scale Thermal-Hydraulic Codes and Models for DNB Challenge Problem Applications L3.AMA.CP.P8.01 Yixing Sung, Jin Yan, Liping Cao, Vefa N. Kucukboyaci, Emre Tatli Westinghouse Electric Company LLC Mark A. Christon, Jozsef Bakosi Los Alamos National Laboratories Robert K. Salko Oak Ridge National Laboratories Hongbin Zhang Idaho National Laboratory March 31, 2014 CASL-U-2014-0032-000 L3.AMA.CP.P8.01 ii CASL-U-2014-0032-000 REVISION LOG Revision Date Affected Pages Revision

  17. Simplified predictive models for CO2 sequestration performance assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mishra, Srikanta; Ganesh, Priya; Schuetter, Jared; He, Jincong; Jin, Zhaoyang; Durlofsky, Louis J.

    2015-09-30

    CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations is increasingly being considered as a viable strategy for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic sources. In this context, detailed numerical simulation based models are routinely used to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration following CO2 injection into the subsurface. As these models are data and computation intensive, the development of computationally-efficient alternatives to conventional numerical simulators has become an active area of research. Such simplified models can be valuable assets during preliminary CO2 injection project screening, serve as a key element of probabilistic system assessment modeling tools, and assist regulators in quickly evaluating geological storage projects. We present three strategies for the development and validation of simplified modeling approaches for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations: (1) simplified physics-based modeling, (2) statisticallearning based modeling, and (3) reduced-order method based modeling. In the first category, a set of full-physics compositional simulations is used to develop correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of the CO2 fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. Furthermore, the dimensionless average pressure buildup after the onset of boundary effects can be correlated to dimensionless time, CO2 plume footprint, and storativity contrast between the reservoir and caprock. In the second category, statistical “proxy models” are developed using the simulation domain described previously with two approaches: (a) classical Box-Behnken experimental design with a quadratic response surface, and (b) maximin

  18. Modeling the inhalation exposure pathway in performance assessment of Geologic Radioactive Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wasiolek, M.A.; Rautenstrauch, K.R.

    2007-07-01

    This paper describes the inhalation model for estimating radiation exposure to resuspended particles of contaminated soil. The source of radionuclides is from the use of contaminated water for crop irrigation. The choice of conceptual model and input parameter values strongly depends on site-specific conditions. This paper explains how the site-specific conditions influenced the inhalation exposure model for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. The model parameters that were developed with consideration of the local conditions represent characteristics of the environment as well as the characteristic of the receptor occupying that environment. The model is based on the mass loading approach and the key parameters are mass loading levels that the receptor might be exposed to. Also important is the degree to which human soil disturbance results in higher mass loading levels, - the degree of enhancement (enrichment) in radionuclide content of the resuspended dust, and - the occupancy periods for exposure to various levels of particulate concentration in air. The significance of dosimetric parameters is also discussed. (authors)

  19. Probabilistic performance-assessment modeling of the mixed waste landfill at Sandia National Laboratories.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peace, Gerald L.; Goering, Timothy James; Miller, Mark Laverne; Ho, Clifford Kuofei

    2007-01-01

    A probabilistic performance assessment has been conducted to evaluate the fate and transport of radionuclides (americium-241, cesium-137, cobalt-60, plutonium-238, plutonium-239, radium-226, radon-222, strontium-90, thorium-232, tritium, uranium-238), heavy metals (lead and cadmium), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at the Mixed Waste Landfill (MWL). Probabilistic analyses were performed to quantify uncertainties inherent in the system and models for a 1,000-year period, and sensitivity analyses were performed to identify parameters and processes that were most important to the simulated performance metrics. Comparisons between simulated results and measured values at the MWL were made to gain confidence in the models and perform calibrations when data were available. In addition, long-term monitoring requirements and triggers were recommended based on the results of the quantified uncertainty and sensitivity analyses.

  20. Performance of corrosion inhibiting admixtures for structural concrete -- assessment methods and predictive modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yunovich, M.; Thompson, N.G.

    1998-12-31

    During the past fifteen years corrosion inhibiting admixtures (CIAs) have become increasingly popular for protection of reinforced components of highway bridges and other structures from damage induced by chlorides. However, there remains considerable debate about the benefits of CIAs in concrete. A variety of testing methods to assess the performance of CIA have been reported in the literature, ranging from tests in simulated pore solutions to long-term exposures of concrete slabs. The paper reviews the published techniques and recommends the methods which would make up a comprehensive CIA effectiveness testing program. The results of this set of tests would provide the data which can be used to rank the presently commercially available CIA and future candidate formulations utilizing a proposed predictive model. The model is based on relatively short-term laboratory testing and considers several phases of a service life of a structure (corrosion initiation, corrosion propagation without damage, and damage to the structure).

  1. Prototype integration of the joint munitions assessment and planning model with the OSD threat methodology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lynn, R.Y.S.; Bolmarcich, J.J.

    1994-06-01

    The purpose of this Memorandum is to propose a prototype procedure which the Office of Munitions might employ to exercise, in a supportive joint fashion, two of its High Level Conventional Munitions Models, namely, the OSD Threat Methodology and the Joint Munitions Assessment and Planning (JMAP) model. The joint application of JMAP and the OSD Threat Methodology provides a tool to optimize munitions stockpiles. The remainder of this Memorandum comprises five parts. The first is a description of the structure and use of the OSD Threat Methodology. The second is a description of JMAP and its use. The third discusses the concept of the joint application of JMAP and OSD Threat Methodology. The fourth displays sample output of the joint application. The fifth is a summary and epilogue. Finally, three appendices contain details of the formulation, data, and computer code.

  2. Modeling and Risk Assessment of CO2 Sequestration at the Geologic-basin Scale

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Juanes, Ruben

    2013-11-30

    The overall objective of this proposal was to develop tools for better understanding, modeling and risk assessment of CO2 permanence in geologic formations at the geologic basin scale.

  3. Result Summary for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site Performance Assessment Model Version 4.113

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shott, G. J.

    2012-04-15

    Preliminary results for Version 4.113 of the Nevada National Security Site Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site performance assessment model are summarized. Version 4.113 includes the Fiscal Year 2011 inventory estimate.

  4. Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards Webinar

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Access the recording and download the presentation slides from the Fuel Cell Technologies Office webinar "Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards" held on April 26, 2016.

  5. A joint discussion model for assessing safety, health, and environmental risks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abbott, R.E.

    1995-12-01

    Industries competing in the global marketplace constantly evaluate potential opportunities for joint ventures and partnerships all over the world. In the petroleum industry, these prospects to explore for and produce oil and gas range geographically from densely populated areas, to offshore, to the remote reaches of a tropical rainforest. There are numerous risks associated with these prospects which must be assessed so that the best investments are selected. The risk categories include: commercial, technical geological, political and safety, health and environmental (SHE). SHE risks are sometimes the most difficult to assess within businesses because they do not allow an easy evaluation of economic impact or other quantification. Additionally, these issues are often not familiar to business development personnel and consequently are not evaluated on an equal basis with other risk criteria. This paper presents a joint discussion model that facilitates the communication between SHE personnel and other members of the multi-disciplinary teams responsible for evaluating and selecting the most attractive prospects. This tool uses a simple approach in contrast to the many quantitative decision-making software products currently available. It provides a set of questions related to relevant SHE issues, establishes a way to approximate the level of uncertainty in the answers, and sums the results so that a comparison among prospects is possible. In the end, a more rigorous, consistent SHE assessment of all prospects is made, and the rationale for each decision is archived so that improvement in the process over time is made easier.

  6. Assessing the toxic effects of ethylene glycol ethers using Quantitative Structure Toxicity Relationship models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ruiz, Patricia; Mumtaz, Moiz; Gombar, Vijay

    2011-07-15

    Experimental determination of toxicity profiles consumes a great deal of time, money, and other resources. Consequently, businesses, societies, and regulators strive for reliable alternatives such as Quantitative Structure Toxicity Relationship (QSTR) models to fill gaps in toxicity profiles of compounds of concern to human health. The use of glycol ethers and their health effects have recently attracted the attention of international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO). The board members of Concise International Chemical Assessment Documents (CICAD) recently identified inadequate testing as well as gaps in toxicity profiles of ethylene glycol mono-n-alkyl ethers (EGEs). The CICAD board requested the ATSDR Computational Toxicology and Methods Development Laboratory to conduct QSTR assessments of certain specific toxicity endpoints for these chemicals. In order to evaluate the potential health effects of EGEs, CICAD proposed a critical QSTR analysis of the mutagenicity, carcinogenicity, and developmental effects of EGEs and other selected chemicals. We report here results of the application of QSTRs to assess rodent carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, and developmental toxicity of four EGEs: 2-methoxyethanol, 2-ethoxyethanol, 2-propoxyethanol, and 2-butoxyethanol and their metabolites. Neither mutagenicity nor carcinogenicity is indicated for the parent compounds, but these compounds are predicted to be developmental toxicants. The predicted toxicity effects were subjected to reverse QSTR (rQSTR) analysis to identify structural attributes that may be the main drivers of the developmental toxicity potential of these compounds.

  7. Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    McCollum, David L.; Wilson, Charlie; Pettifor, Hazel; Ramea, Kalai; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Bertram, Christoph; Lin, Zhenhong; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Fujisawa, Sei

    2016-05-03

    A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. Anmore » innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and behaviorally-realistic model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. Moreover, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.« less

  8. Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: Modeling Individual Steps of a Risk Assessment Process

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

    2004-06-01

    The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated risks to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems modeling software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental models for similar risk assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a risk assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate and transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.

  9. Numerical Modeling of the Lake Mary Road Bridge for Foundation Reuse Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sitek, M. A.; Bojanowski, C.; Lottes, S. A.

    2015-04-01

    This project uses numerical techniques to assess the structural integrity and capacity of the bridge foundations and, as a result, reduces the risk associated with reusing the same foundation for a new superstructure. Nondestructive test methods of different types were used in combination with the numerical modeling and analysis. The onsite tests included visual inspection, tomography, ground penetrating radar, drilling boreholes and coreholes, and the laboratory tests on recovered samples. The results were utilized to identify the current geometry of the structure with foundation, including the hidden geometry of the abutments and piers, and soil and foundation material properties. This data was used to build the numerical models and run computational analyses on a high performance computer cluster to assess the structural integrity of the bridge and foundations including the suitability of the foundation for reuse with a new superstructure and traffic that will increase the load on the foundations. Computational analysis is more cost-effective and gives an advantage of getting more detailed knowledge about the structural response. It also enables to go beyond non-destructive testing and find the failure conditions without destroying the structure under consideration.

  10. CONTAIN code analyses of direct containment heating (DCH) experiments: Model assessment and phenomenological interpretation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Williams, D.C.; Griffith, R.O.; Tadios, E.L.; Washington, K.E.

    1995-05-12

    Models for direct containment heating (DCH) in the CONTAIN code for severe accident analysis have been reviewed and a standard input prescription for their use has been defined. The code has been exercised against a large subset of the available DCH data base. Generally good agreement with the experimental results for containment pressurization ({Delta}P) and hydrogen generation has been obtained. Extensive sensitivity studies have been performed which permit assessment of many of the strengths and weaknesses of specific model features. These include models for debris transport and trapping, DCH heat transfer and chemistry, atmosphere-structure heat transfer, interactions between nonairborne debris and blowdown steam, potential effects of debris-water interactions, and hydrogen combustion under DCH conditions. Containment compartmentalization is an important DCH mitigator in the calculations, in agreement with experimental results. The CONTAIN model includes partially parametric treatments for some processes that are not well understood. The importance of the associated uncertainties depends upon the details of the DCH scenario being analyzed. Recommended sensitivity studies are summarized that allow the user to obtain a reasonable estimate of the uncertainties in the calculated results.

  11. Preliminary performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, December 1992. Volume 3, Model parameters: Sandia WIPP Project

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-12-29

    This volume documents model parameters chosen as of July 1992 that were used by the Performance Assessment Department of Sandia National Laboratories in its 1992 preliminary performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Ranges and distributions for about 300 modeling parameters in the current secondary data base are presented in tables for the geologic and engineered barriers, global materials (e.g., fluid properties), and agents that act upon the WIPP disposal system such as climate variability and human-intrusion boreholes. The 49 parameters sampled in the 1992 Preliminary Performance Assessment are given special emphasis with tables and graphics that provide insight and sources of data for each parameter.

  12. Energy Performance Assessment of Radiant Cooling System through Modeling and Calibration at Component Level

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Khan, Yasin; Mathur, Jyotirmay; Bhandari, Mahabir S

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes a case study of an information technology office building with a radiant cooling system and a conventional variable air volume (VAV) system installed side by side so that performancecan be compared. First, a 3D model of the building involving architecture, occupancy, and HVAC operation was developed in EnergyPlus, a simulation tool. Second, a different calibration methodology was applied to develop the base case for assessing the energy saving potential. This paper details the calibration of the whole building energy model to the component level, including lighting, equipment, and HVAC components such as chillers, pumps, cooling towers, fans, etc. Also a new methodology for the systematic selection of influence parameter has been developed for the calibration of a simulated model which requires large time for the execution. The error at the whole building level [measured in mean bias error (MBE)] is 0.2%, and the coefficient of variation of root mean square error (CvRMSE) is 3.2%. The total errors in HVAC at the hourly are MBE = 8.7% and CvRMSE = 23.9%, which meet the criteria of ASHRAE 14 (2002) for hourly calibration. Different suggestions have been pointed out to generalize the energy saving of radiant cooling system through the existing building system. So a base case model was developed by using the calibrated model for quantifying the energy saving potential of the radiant cooling system. It was found that a base case radiant cooling system integrated with DOAS can save 28% energy compared with the conventional VAV system.

  13. PERFLUOROCARBON GAS TRACER STUDIES TO SUPPORT RISK ASSESSMENT MODELING OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE SUBJECTED TO TERRORIST ATTACKS.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    SULLIVAN, T.M.; HEISER, J.; WATSON, T.; ALLWINE, K.J.; FLAHERTY, J.E.

    2006-05-06

    Development of real-time predictive modeling to identify the dispersion and/or source(s) of airborne weapons of mass destruction including chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear material in urban environments is needed to improve response to potential releases of these materials via either terrorist or accidental means. These models will also prove useful in defining airborne pollution dispersion in urban environments for pollution management/abatement programs. Predicting gas flow in an urban setting on a scale of less than a few kilometers is a complicated and challenging task due to the irregular flow paths that occur along streets and alleys and around buildings of different sizes and shapes, i.e., ''urban canyons''. In addition, air exchange between the outside and buildings and subway areas further complicate the situation. Transport models that are used to predict dispersion of WMD/CBRN materials or to back track the source of the release require high-density data and need defensible parameterizations of urban processes. Errors in the data or any of the parameter inputs or assumptions will lead to misidentification of the airborne spread or source release location(s). The need for these models to provide output in a real-time fashion if they are to be useful for emergency response provides another challenge. To improve the ability of New York City's (NYC's) emergency management teams and first response personnel to protect the public during releases of hazardous materials, the New York City Urban Dispersion Program (UDP) has been initiated. This is a four year research program being conducted from 2004 through 2007. This paper will discuss ground level and subway Perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT) release studies conducted in New York City. The studies released multiple tracers to study ground level and vertical transport of contaminants. This paper will discuss the results from these tests and how these results can be used for improving transport models

  14. SOFTWARE QUALITY ASSURANCE FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT MODELS AT DOE'S SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hunter, C

    2007-12-17

    The Savannah River National Laboratory's (SRNL) Atmospheric Technologies Group develops, maintains, and operates computer-based software applications for use in emergency response consequence assessment at DOE's Savannah River Site. These applications range from straightforward, stand-alone Gaussian dispersion models run with simple meteorological input to complex computational software systems with supporting scripts that simulate highly dynamic atmospheric processes. A software quality assurance program has been developed to ensure appropriate lifecycle management of these software applications. This program was designed to meet fully the overall structure and intent of SRNL's institutional software QA programs, yet remain sufficiently practical to achieve the necessary level of control in a cost-effective manner. A general overview of this program is described.

  15. Extended defense systems :I. adversary-defender modeling grammar for vulnerability analysis and threat assessment.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Merkle, Peter Benedict

    2006-03-01

    Vulnerability analysis and threat assessment require systematic treatments of adversary and defender characteristics. This work addresses the need for a formal grammar for the modeling and analysis of adversary and defender engagements of interest to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Analytical methods treating both linguistic and numerical information should ensure that neither aspect has disproportionate influence on assessment outcomes. The adversary-defender modeling (ADM) grammar employs classical set theory and notation. It is designed to incorporate contributions from subject matter experts in all relevant disciplines, without bias. The Attack Scenario Space U{sub S} is the set universe of all scenarios possible under physical laws. An attack scenario is a postulated event consisting of the active engagement of at least one adversary with at least one defended target. Target Information Space I{sub S} is the universe of information about targets and defenders. Adversary and defender groups are described by their respective Character super-sets, (A){sub P} and (D){sub F}. Each super-set contains six elements: Objectives, Knowledge, Veracity, Plans, Resources, and Skills. The Objectives are the desired end-state outcomes. Knowledge is comprised of empirical and theoretical a priori knowledge and emergent knowledge (learned during an attack), while Veracity is the correspondence of Knowledge with fact or outcome. Plans are ordered activity-task sequences (tuples) with logical contingencies. Resources are the a priori and opportunistic physical assets and intangible attributes applied to the execution of associated Plans elements. Skills for both adversary and defender include the assumed general and task competencies for the associated plan set, the realized value of competence in execution or exercise, and the opponent's planning assumption of the task competence.

  16. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN APPLICATIONS FOR MODELING AND ASSESSING CARBON DIOXIDE SEQUESTRATION IN SALINE AQUIFERS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, John

    2014-08-31

    This project was a computer modeling effort to couple reservoir simulation and ED/RSM using Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Analysis, and Optimization Methods, to assess geologic, geochemical, geomechanical, and rock-fluid effects and factors on CO2 injectivity, capacity, and plume migration. The project objective was to develop proxy models to simplify the highly complex coupled geochemical and geomechanical models in the utilization and storage of CO2 in the subsurface. The goals were to investigate and prove the feasibility of the ED/RSM processes and engineering development, and bridge the gaps regarding the uncertainty and unknowns of the many geochemical and geomechanical interacting parameters in the development and operation of anthropogenic CO2 sequestration and storage sites. The bottleneck in this workflow is the high computational effort of reactive transport simulation models and large number of input variables to optimize with ED/RSM techniques. The project was not to develop the reactive transport, geomechanical, or ED/RSM software, but was to use what was commercially and/or publically available as a proof of concept to generate proxy or surrogate models. A detailed geologic and petrographic mineral assemblage and geologic structure of the doubly plunging anticline was defined using the USDOE RMOTC formations of interest data (e.g., Lower Sundance, Crow Mountain, Alcova Limestone, and Red Peak). The assemblage of 23 minerals was primarily developed from literature data and petrophysical (well log) analysis. The assemblage and structure was input into a commercial reactive transport simulator to predict the effects of CO2 injection and complex reactions with the reservoir rock. Significant impediments were encountered during the execution phase of the project. The only known commercial reactive transport simulator was incapable of simulating complex geochemistry modeled in this project. Significant effort and project funding was expended to

  17. Recommended Method To Account For Daughter Ingrowth For The Portsmouth On-Site Waste Disposal Facility Performance Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Phifer, Mark A.; Smith, Frank G. III

    2013-06-21

    A 3-D STOMP model has been developed for the Portsmouth On-Site Waste Disposal Facility (OSWDF) at Site D as outlined in Appendix K of FBP 2013. This model projects the flow and transport of the following radionuclides to various points of assessments: Tc-99, U-234, U-235, U-236, U-238, Am-241, Np-237, Pu-238, Pu-239, Pu-240, Th-228, and Th-230. The model includes the radioactive decay of these parents, but does not include the associated daughter ingrowth because the STOMP model does not have the capability to model daughter ingrowth. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) provides herein a recommended method to account for daughter ingrowth in association with the Portsmouth OSWDF Performance Assessment (PA) modeling.

  18. Use of GIS and 3D Modeling for Development and Conceptualization of a Performance Assessment Model for Decommissioning of a Complex Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Esh, D. W.; Gross, A. J.; Thaggard, M.

    2006-07-01

    Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and 3D geo-spatial modeling were employed to facilitate development and conceptualization of a performance assessment (PA) model that will be used to evaluate the health impacts of residual radioactivity at a former nuclear materials processing facility site in New York. Previous operations have resulted in a number of different sources of radiological contamination that must be assessed during site decommissioning. A performance assessment model is being developed to estimate radiological dose to potential receptors through the simulation of the release and transport of radionuclides, and exposure to residual contamination for hundreds to thousands of years in the future. A variety of inputs are required to parameterize the performance assessment model, such as: distance from the waste to surface water bodies, thickness of geologic units for saturated transport, saturated thickness of the geologic units, and spatial and temporal average of percent of waste that is saturated. GIS and 3D modeling are used to analyze and abstract aleatory uncertainty associated with the dimensionality of the geologic system into epistemic uncertainty for one- and two-dimensional process models for flow and transport of radionuclides. Three-dimensional geo-spatial modeling was used to develop the geologic framework and the geometrical representation of the residual contamination within the geologic framework. GIS was used in the initial development and parameterization of the transport pathways, to provide spatial context to the PA model, and to link it to the 3D geologic framework and contamination geometry models. Both the GIS and 3-D modeling were used to interpret the results of runs of the PA model. (authors)

  19. Assessing the Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosols on Pacific Storm Track Using a Multiscale Global Climate Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan; Molina, Mario J.

    2014-05-13

    Atmospheric aerosols impact weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track using a multi-scale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and pre-industrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by - 2.5 and + 1.3 W m-2, respectively, by emission changes from pre-industrial to present day, and an increased cloud-top height indicates invigorated mid-latitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides for the first time a global perspective of the impacts of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multi-scale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on the global scale.

  20. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 4: The DBEDT DSM assessment model user`s manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DBEDT DSM Assessment Model (DSAM) is a spreadsheet model developed in Quattro Pro for Windows that is based on the integration of the DBEDT energy forecasting model, ENERGY 2020, with the output from the building energy use simulation model, DOE-2. DOE-2 provides DSM impact estimates for both energy and peak demand. The ``User`s Guide`` is designed to assist DBEDT staff in the operation of DSAM. Supporting information on model structure and data inputs are provided in Volumes 2 and 3 of the Final Report. DSAM is designed to provide DBEDT estimates of the potential DSM resource for each county in Hawaii by measure, program, sector, year, and levelized cost category. The results are provided for gas and electric and for both energy and peak demand. There are two main portions of DSAM, the residential sector and the commercial sector. The basic underlying logic for both sectors are the same. However, there are some modeling differences between the two sectors. The differences are primarily the result of (1) the more complex nature of the commercial sector, (2) memory limitations within Quattro Pro, and (3) the fact that the commercial sector portion of the model was written four months after the residential sector portion. The structure for both sectors essentially consists of a series of input spreadsheets, the portion of the model where the calculations are performed, and a series of output spreadsheets. The output spreadsheets contain both detailed and summary tables and graphs.

  1. Hepatocyte-based in vitro model for assessment of drug-induced cholestasis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chatterjee, Sagnik; Richert, Lysiane; Augustijns, Patrick; Annaert, Pieter

    2014-01-01

    Early detection of drug-induced cholestasis remains a challenge during drug development. We have developed and validated a biorelevant sandwich-cultured hepatocytes- (SCH) based model that can identify compounds causing cholestasis by altering bile acid disposition. Human and rat SCH were exposed (2448 h) to known cholestatic and/or hepatotoxic compounds, in the presence or in the absence of a concentrated mixture of bile acids (BAs). Urea assay was used to assess (compromised) hepatocyte functionality at the end of the incubations. The cholestatic potential of the compounds was expressed by calculating a drug-induced cholestasis index (DICI), reflecting the relative residual urea formation by hepatocytes co-incubated with BAs and test compound as compared to hepatocytes treated with test compound alone. Compounds with clinical reports of cholestasis, including cyclosporin A, troglitazone, chlorpromazine, bosentan, ticlopidine, ritonavir, and midecamycin showed enhanced toxicity in the presence of BAs (DICI ? 0.8) for at least one of the tested concentrations. In contrast, the in vitro toxicity of compounds causing hepatotoxicity by other mechanisms (including diclofenac, valproic acid, amiodarone and acetaminophen), remained unchanged in the presence of BAs. A safety margin (SM) for drug-induced cholestasis was calculated as the ratio of lowest in vitro concentration for which was DICI ? 0.8, to the reported mean peak therapeutic plasma concentration. SM values obtained in human SCH correlated well with reported % incidence of clinical drug-induced cholestasis, while no correlation was observed in rat SCH. This in vitro model enables early identification of drug candidates causing cholestasis by disturbed BA handling. - Highlights: Novel in vitro assay to detect drug-induced cholestasis Rat and human sandwich-cultured hepatocytes (SCH) as in vitro models Cholestatic compounds sensitize SCH to toxic effects of accumulating bile acids Drug

  2. Assessment of CCFL model of RELAP5/MOD3 against simple vertical tubes and rod bundle tests. International Agreement Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cho, S.; Arne, N.; Chung, B.D.; Kim, H.J.

    1993-06-01

    The CCFL model used in RELAP5/MOD3 version 5m5 has been assessed against simple vertical tubes and bundle tests performed at a facility of Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute. The effect of changes in tube diameter and nodalization of tube section were investigated. The roles of interfacial drags on the flooding characteristics are discussed. Differences between the calculation and the experiment are also discussed. A comparison between model assessment results and the test data showed that the calculated value lay well on the experimental flooding curve specified by user, but the pressure jump before onset of flooding was not calculated.

  3. Internal cycle modeling and environmental assessment of multiple cycle consumer products

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tsiliyannis, C.A.

    2012-01-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Dynamic flow models are presented for remanufactured, reused or recycled products. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Early loss and stochastic return are included for fast and slow cycling products. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The reuse-to-input flow ratio (Internal Cycle Factor, ICF) is determined. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The cycle rate, which is increasing with the ICF, monitors eco-performance. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Early internal cycle losses diminish the ICF, the cycle rate and performance. - Abstract: Dynamic annual flow models incorporating consumer discard and usage loss and featuring deterministic and stochastic end-of-cycle (EOC) return by the consumer are developed for reused or remanufactured products (multiple cycle products, MCPs), including fast and slow cycling, short and long-lived products. It is shown that internal flows (reuse and overall consumption) increase proportionally to the dimensionless internal cycle factor (ICF) which is related to environmental impact reduction factors. The combined reuse/recycle (or cycle) rate is shown capable for shortcut, albeit effective, monitoring of environmental performance in terms of waste production, virgin material extraction and manufacturing impacts of all MCPs, a task, which physical variables (lifetime, cycling frequency, mean or total number of return trips) and conventional rates, via which environmental policy has been officially implemented (e.g. recycling rate) cannot accomplish. The cycle rate is shown to be an increasing (hyperbolic) function of ICF. The impact of the stochastic EOC return characteristics on total reuse and consumption flows, as well as on eco-performance, is assessed: symmetric EOC return has a small, positive effect on performance compared to deterministic, while early shifted EOC return is more beneficial. In order to be efficient, environmental policy should set higher minimum reuse targets for higher trippage MCPs. The

  4. Frit Development Efforts for Sludge Batch 4 (SB4): Model-Based Assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peeler, D. K.; Edwards, T. B.

    2005-03-05

    The model-based assessments of nominal Sludge Batch 4 (SB4) compositions suggest that a viable frit candidate does not appear to be a limiting factor as the Closure Business Unit (CBU) considers various tank blending options and/or washing strategies. This statement is based solely on the projected operating windows derived from model predictions and does not include assessments of SO{sub 4} solubility or melt rate issues. The viable frit candidates covered a range of Na{sub 2}O concentrations (from 8% to 13%--including Frit 418 and Frit 320) using a ''sliding Na{sub 2}O scale'' concept (i.e., 1% increase in Na{sub 2}O being balanced by a 1% reduction in SiO{sub 2}) which effectively balances the alkali content of the incoming sludge with that in the frit to maintain and/or increase the projected operating window size while potentially leading to improved melt rate and/or waste loadings. This strategy or approach allows alternative tank blending strategies and/or different washing scenarios to be considered and accounted for in an effective manner without wholesale changes to the frit composition. In terms of projected operating windows, in general, the sludge/frit systems evaluated resulted in waste loading intervals from 25 to the mid-40%'s or even the mid-50%'s. The results suggest that a single frit could be selected for use with all 20 options which indicates some degree of frit robustness with respect to sludge compositional variation. In fact, use of Frit 418 or Frit 320 (the ''cornerstone'' frits given previous processing experience in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF)) are plausible for most (if not all) options being considered. However, the frit selection process also needs to consider potential processing issues such as melt rate. Based on historical trends between melt rate and total alkali content, one may elect to use the frit with the highest alkali content that still yields an acceptable operating window. However, other constraints may

  5. Modeling and comparative assessment of municipal solid waste gasification for energy production

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arafat, Hassan A. Jijakli, Kenan

    2013-08-15

    Highlights: • Study developed a methodology for the evaluation of gasification for MSW treatment. • Study was conducted comparatively for USA, UAE, and Thailand. • Study applies a thermodynamic model (Gibbs free energy minimization) using the Gasify software. • The energy efficiency of the process and the compatibility with different waste streams was studied. - Abstract: Gasification is the thermochemical conversion of organic feedstocks mainly into combustible syngas (CO and H{sub 2}) along with other constituents. It has been widely used to convert coal into gaseous energy carriers but only has been recently looked at as a process for producing energy from biomass. This study explores the potential of gasification for energy production and treatment of municipal solid waste (MSW). It relies on adapting the theory governing the chemistry and kinetics of the gasification process to the use of MSW as a feedstock to the process. It also relies on an equilibrium kinetics and thermodynamics solver tool (Gasify®) in the process of modeling gasification of MSW. The effect of process temperature variation on gasifying MSW was explored and the results were compared to incineration as an alternative to gasification of MSW. Also, the assessment was performed comparatively for gasification of MSW in the United Arab Emirates, USA, and Thailand, presenting a spectrum of socioeconomic settings with varying MSW compositions in order to explore the effect of MSW composition variance on the products of gasification. All in all, this study provides an insight into the potential of gasification for the treatment of MSW and as a waste to energy alternative to incineration.

  6. Probabilistic performance-assessment modeling of the mixed waste landfill at Sandia National Laboratories.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peace, Gerald L.; Goering, Timothy James; Miller, Mark Laverne; Ho, Clifford Kuofei

    2005-11-01

    A probabilistic performance assessment has been conducted to evaluate the fate and transport of radionuclides (americium-241, cesium-137, cobalt-60, plutonium-238, plutonium-239, radium-226, radon-222, strontium-90, thorium-232, tritium, uranium-238), heavy metals (lead and cadmium), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at the Mixed Waste Landfill (MWL). Probabilistic analyses were performed to quantify uncertainties inherent in the system and models for a 1,000-year period, and sensitivity analyses were performed to identify parameters and processes that were most important to the simulated performance metrics. Comparisons between simulated results and measured values at the MWL were made to gain confidence in the models and perform calibrations when data were available. In addition, long-term monitoring requirements and triggers were recommended based on the results of the quantified uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. At least one-hundred realizations were simulated for each scenario defined in the performance assessment. Conservative values and assumptions were used to define values and distributions of uncertain input parameters when site data were not available. Results showed that exposure to tritium via the air pathway exceeded the regulatory metric of 10 mrem/year in about 2% of the simulated realizations when the receptor was located at the MWL (continuously exposed to the air directly above the MWL). Simulations showed that peak radon gas fluxes exceeded the design standard of 20 pCi/m{sup 2}/s in about 3% of the realizations if up to 1% of the containers of sealed radium-226 sources were assumed to completely degrade in the future. If up to 100% of the containers of radium-226 sources were assumed to completely degrade, 30% of the realizations yielded radon surface fluxes that exceeded the design standard. For the groundwater pathway, simulations showed that none of the radionuclides or heavy metals (lead and cadmium) reached the groundwater during

  7. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  8. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Schlicher, Bob G

    2015-01-01

    There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated the cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.

  9. Webinar: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards" on Tuesday, April 26, from 12:00 to 1:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

  10. Performance Assessment Transport Modeling of Uranium at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site at the Nevada National Security Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NSTec Radioactive Waste

    2010-10-12

    Following is a brief summary of the assumptions that are pertinent to the radioactive isotope transport in the GoldSim Performance Assessment model of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, with special emphasis on the water-phase reactive transport of uranium, which includes depleted uranium products.

  11. Preliminary Review of Models, Assumptions, and Key Data used in Performance Assessments and Composite Analysis at the Idaho National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arthur S. Rood; Swen O. Magnuson

    2009-07-01

    This document is in response to a request by Ming Zhu, DOE-EM to provide a preliminary review of existing models and data used in completed or soon to be completed Performance Assessments and Composite Analyses (PA/CA) documents, to identify codes, methodologies, main assumptions, and key data sets used.

  12. Bottom-up Representation of Industrial Energy Efficiency Technologies in Integrated Assessment Models for the Cement Sector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sathaye, J.; Xu, T.; Galitsky, C.

    2010-08-15

    Adoption of efficient end-use technologies is one of the key measures for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. How to effectively analyze and manage the costs associated with GHG reductions becomes extremely important for the industry and policy makers around the world. Energy-climate (EC) models are often used for analyzing the costs of reducing GHG emissions for various emission-reduction measures, because an accurate estimation of these costs is critical for identifying and choosing optimal emission reduction measures, and for developing related policy options to accelerate market adoption and technology implementation. However, accuracies of assessing of GHG-emission reduction costs by taking into account the adoption of energy efficiency technologies will depend on how well these end-use technologies are represented in integrated assessment models (IAM) and other energy-climate models.

  13. Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Gee, Glendon W.; Nicholson, Thomas J.

    2000-02-28

    This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases.

  14. An assessment of possible climate change in the Australian region based on intercomparison of general circulation modeling results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Whetton, P.H.; Pittock, A.B.; Haylock, M.R. ); Rayner, P.J. )

    1994-03-01

    To assist in estimating likely future climate change in the Australian region, the authors examine the results of four different general circulation modeling experiments run to assess the equilibrium impact of doubling greenhouse gases. The results examined were the most recent available at the time of study from various research centers in North America and Europe, as well as those of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). The approach used is, first, to assess the quality of the control (1 x CO[sub 2]) simulations from each of the models of mean sea level (MSL) pressure and precipitation in the Australian region by comparing these with the corresponding observed patterns; and, second, to then analyze the 2 x CO[sub 2] results of only those model experiments with the best control simulations. Of the models examined two are chosen on the basis of their simulation of current climate in the region: the CSIRO four-level model (CSIRO4) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model. For conditions of equivalent doubling of CO[sub 2], both models show substantial increases in surface air temperature of around 4[degrees]-6[degrees] inland and 2[degrees]-4[degrees]C in coastal regions. Both models show decreased MSL pressure over the Australian continent and increases in rainfall over northern, central, and eastern Australia, particularly in the summer half of the year. The CSIRO4 model, but not the UKMO model, also shows increased pressure to the south of the continent and decreased winter rainfall in southwest and southern Australia. Generally, field significance tests show the pattern and magnitude of the changes to be significant of CSIRO4 (for which the necessary monthly simulated data were available). 42 refs., 20 figs., 5 tabs.

  15. Statistical model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) in clinical CT systems: Experimental assessment of noise performance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, Ke; Tang, Jie; Chen, Guang-Hong

    2014-04-15

    Purpose: To reduce radiation dose in CT imaging, the statistical model based iterative reconstruction (MBIR) method has been introduced for clinical use. Based on the principle of MBIR and its nonlinear nature, the noise performance of MBIR is expected to be different from that of the well-understood filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction method. The purpose of this work is to experimentally assess the unique noise characteristics of MBIR using a state-of-the-art clinical CT system. Methods: Three physical phantoms, including a water cylinder and two pediatric head phantoms, were scanned in axial scanning mode using a 64-slice CT scanner (Discovery CT750 HD, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, WI) at seven different mAs levels (5, 12.5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 300). At each mAs level, each phantom was repeatedly scanned 50 times to generate an image ensemble for noise analysis. Both the FBP method with a standard kernel and the MBIR method (Veo{sup }, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, WI) were used for CT image reconstruction. Three-dimensional (3D) noise power spectrum (NPS), two-dimensional (2D) NPS, and zero-dimensional NPS (noise variance) were assessed both globally and locally. Noise magnitude, noise spatial correlation, noise spatial uniformity and their dose dependence were examined for the two reconstruction methods. Results: (1) At each dose level and at each frequency, the magnitude of the NPS of MBIR was smaller than that of FBP. (2) While the shape of the NPS of FBP was dose-independent, the shape of the NPS of MBIR was strongly dose-dependent; lower dose lead to a redder NPS with a lower mean frequency value. (3) The noise standard deviation (?) of MBIR and dose were found to be related through a power law of ????(dose){sup ??} with the component ? ? 0.25, which violated the classical ????(dose){sup ?0.5} power law in FBP. (4) With MBIR, noise reduction was most prominent for thin image slices. (5) MBIR lead to better noise spatial uniformity when compared with FBP

  16. Developing an Integrated Model Framework for the Assessment of Sustainable Agricultural Residue Removal Limits for Bioenergy Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    David Muth, Jr.; Jared Abodeely; Richard Nelson; Douglas McCorkle; Joshua Koch; Kenneth Bryden

    2011-08-01

    Agricultural residues have significant potential as a feedstock for bioenergy production, but removing these residues can have negative impacts on soil health. Models and datasets that can support decisions about sustainable agricultural residue removal are available; however, no tools currently exist capable of simultaneously addressing all environmental factors that can limit availability of residue. The VE-Suite model integration framework has been used to couple a set of environmental process models to support agricultural residue removal decisions. The RUSLE2, WEPS, and Soil Conditioning Index models have been integrated. A disparate set of databases providing the soils, climate, and management practice data required to run these models have also been integrated. The integrated system has been demonstrated for two example cases. First, an assessment using high spatial fidelity crop yield data has been run for a single farm. This analysis shows the significant variance in sustainably accessible residue across a single farm and crop year. A second example is an aggregate assessment of agricultural residues available in the state of Iowa. This implementation of the integrated systems model demonstrates the capability to run a vast range of scenarios required to represent a large geographic region.

  17. MODARIA: Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessment Context and Overview

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Presentation from the 2015 Annual Performance and Risk Assessment (P&RA) Community of Practice (CoP) Technical Exchange Meeting held in Richland, Washington on December 15-16, 2015.

  18. Revisions to US EPA Superfund Risk and Dose Assessment Models and Guidance - 13403

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walker, Stuart A.

    2013-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Superfund program's six Preliminary Remediation Goal (PRG) and Dose Compliance Concentration (DCC) internet based calculators for risk and dose assessment at Superfund sites are being revised to reflect better science, revisions to existing exposure scenarios and new scenarios, and changes to match up more closely with the EPA chemical regional screening level calculator. A revised version of the 1999 guidance document that provides an overview for the Superfund risk assessment process at radioactively contaminated sites, 'Radiation Risk Assessment At CERCLA Sites: Q and A', is being completed that will reflect Superfund recommended guidance and other technical documents issued over the past 13 years. EPA is also issuing a series of fact sheets in the document 'Superfund Radiation Risk Assessment: A Community Tool-kit'. This presentation would go over those changes that are expected to be finished by this spring. (authors)

  19. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brian C. O'Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  20. Modifying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to Simulate Cropland Carbon Flux: Model Development and Initial Evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Arnold, Jeffrey; Williams, Jimmy R.; Srinivasan, Raghavan

    2013-10-01

    Climate change is one of the most compelling modern issues and has important implications for almost every aspect of natural and human systems. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied worldwide to support sustainable land and water management in a changing climate. However, the inadequacies of the existing carbon algorithm in SWAT limit its application in assessing impacts of human activities on CO2 emission, one important source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that traps heat in the earth system and results in global warming. In this research, we incorporate a revised version of the CENTURY carbon model into SWAT to describe dynamics of soil organic matter (SOM)- residue and simulate land-atmosphere carbon exchange.

  1. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models L. Billman and D. Keyser National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-56390 August 2013 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at

  2. The potential use of Chernobyl fallout data to test and evaluate the predictions of environmental radiological assessment models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Richmond, C.R.; Hoffman, F.O.; Blaylock, B.G.; Eckerman, K.F.; Lesslie, P.A.; Miller, C.W.; Ng, Y.C.; Till, J.E.

    1988-06-01

    The objectives of the Model Validation Committee were to collaborate with US and foreign scientists to collect, manage, and evaluate data for identifying critical research issues and data needs to support an integrated assessment of the Chernobyl nuclear accident; test environmental transport, human dosimetric, and health effects models against measured data to determine their efficacy in guiding decisions on protective actions and in estimating exposures to populations and individuals following a nuclear accident; and apply Chernobyl data to quantifications of key processes governing the environmental transport, fate and effects of radionuclides and other trace substances. 55 refs.

  3. Assessment of Dissolved Oxygen Mitigation at Hydropower Dams Using an Integrated Hydrodynamic/Water Quality/Fish Growth Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bevelhimer, Mark S; Coutant, Charles C

    2006-07-01

    Dissolved oxygen (DO) in rivers is a common environmental problem associated with hydropower projects. Approximately 40% of all FERC-licensed projects have requirements to monitor and/or mitigate downstream DO conditions. Most forms of mitigation for increasing DO in dam tailwaters are fairly expensive. One area of research of the Department of Energy's Hydropower Program is the development of advanced turbines that improve downstream water quality and have other environmental benefits. There is great interest in being able to predict the benefits of these modifications prior to committing to the cost of new equipment. In the case of turbine replacement or modification, there is a need for methods that allow us to accurately extrapolate the benefits derived from one or two turbines with better design to the replacement or modification of all turbines at a site. The main objective of our study was to demonstrate a modeling approach that integrates the effects of flow and water quality dynamics with fish bioenergetics to predict DO mitigation effectiveness over long river segments downstream of hydropower dams. We were particularly interested in demonstrating the incremental value of including a fish growth model as a measure of biological response. The models applied are a suite of tools (RMS4 modeling system) originally developed by the Tennessee Valley Authority for simulating hydrodynamics (ADYN model), water quality (RQUAL model), and fish growth (FISH model) as influenced by DO, temperature, and available food base. We parameterized a model for a 26-mile reach of the Caney Fork River (Tennessee) below Center Hill Dam to assess how improvements in DO at the dam discharge would affect water quality and fish growth throughout the river. We simulated different types of mitigation (i.e., at the turbine and in the reservoir forebay) and different levels of improvement. The model application successfully demonstrates how a modeling approach like this one can be used

  4. Assessment of Fluctuating Reservoir Elevations Using Hydraulic Models and Impacts to Larval Pacific Lamprey Rearing Habitat in the Bonneville Pool

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mueller, Robert P.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Perkins, William A.; Richmond, Marshall C.

    2015-02-24

    This report presents the results of a modeling assessment of likely lamprey larval habitat that may be impacted by dewatering of the major tributary delta regions in the Bonneville Pool of the Columbia River. This assessment was conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (CENWP). The goal of the study was to provide baseline data about how the regions of interest would potentially be impacted at three river flows (10, 50, and 90 percent exceedance flow) for four different forebay elevations at Bonneville Dam. Impacts of unsteady flows at The Dalles Dam and changing forebay elevation at Bonneville Dam for a 2-week period were also assessed. The area of dewatered regions was calculated by importing modeled data outputs into a GIS and then calculating the change in inundated area near tributary deltas for the four Bonneville forebay surface elevations. From the modeled output we determined that the overall change in area is less sensitive to elevations changes during higher river discharges. Changing the forebay elevation at Bonneville and the resulting impact to total dewatered regions was greater at the lowest modeled river flow (97 kcfs) and showed the greatest variation at the White Salmon/Hood River delta regions followed by the Wind, Klickitat and the Little White Salmon rivers. To understand how inundation might change on a daily and hourly basis. Unsteady flow models were run for a 2-week period in 2002 and compared to 2014. The water surface elevation in the upstream pool closely follows that of the Bonneville Dam forebay with rapid changes of 1 to 2-ft possible. The data shows that 2.5-ft variation in water surface elevation occurred during this period in 2002 and a 3.7-ft change occurred in 2014. The duration of these changes were highly variable and generally did not stay constant for more than a 5-hr period.

  5. SIMPLIFIED PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR CO₂ SEQUESTRATION PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT RESEARCH TOPICAL REPORT ON TASK #3 STATISTICAL LEARNING BASED MODELS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mishra, Srikanta; Schuetter, Jared

    2014-11-01

    We compare two approaches for building a statistical proxy model (metamodel) for CO₂ geologic sequestration from the results of full-physics compositional simulations. The first approach involves a classical Box-Behnken or Augmented Pairs experimental design with a quadratic polynomial response surface. The second approach used a space-filling maxmin Latin Hypercube sampling or maximum entropy design with the choice of five different meta-modeling techniques: quadratic polynomial, kriging with constant and quadratic trend terms, multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) and additivity and variance stabilization (AVAS). Simulations results for CO₂ injection into a reservoir-caprock system with 9 design variables (and 97 samples) were used to generate the data for developing the proxy models. The fitted models were validated with using an independent data set and a cross-validation approach for three different performance metrics: total storage efficiency, CO₂ plume radius and average reservoir pressure. The Box-Behnken–quadratic polynomial metamodel performed the best, followed closely by the maximin LHS–kriging metamodel.

  6. Model Developments for Development of Improved Emissions Scenarios: Developing Purchasing-Power Parity Models, Analyzing Uncertainty, and Developing Data Sets for Gridded Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zili; Nordhaus, William

    2009-03-19

    In the duration of this project, we finished the main tasks set up in the initial proposal. These tasks include: setting up the basic platform in GAMS language for the new RICE 2007 model; testing various model structure of RICE 2007; incorporating PPP data set in the new RICE model; developing gridded data set for IA modeling.

  7. A multi-objective programming model for assessment the GHG emissions in MSW management

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mavrotas, George; Skoulaxinou, Sotiria; Gakis, Nikos; Katsouros, Vassilis; Georgopoulou, Elena

    2013-09-15

    Highlights: • The multi-objective multi-period optimization model. • The solution approach for the generation of the Pareto front with mathematical programming. • The very detailed description of the model (decision variables, parameters, equations). • The use of IPCC 2006 guidelines for landfill emissions (first order decay model) in the mathematical programming formulation. - Abstract: In this study a multi-objective mathematical programming model is developed for taking into account GHG emissions for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management. Mathematical programming models are often used for structure, design and operational optimization of various systems (energy, supply chain, processes, etc.). The last twenty years they are used all the more often in Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management in order to provide optimal solutions with the cost objective being the usual driver of the optimization. In our work we consider the GHG emissions as an additional criterion, aiming at a multi-objective approach. The Pareto front (Cost vs. GHG emissions) of the system is generated using an appropriate multi-objective method. This information is essential to the decision maker because he can explore the trade-offs in the Pareto curve and select his most preferred among the Pareto optimal solutions. In the present work a detailed multi-objective, multi-period mathematical programming model is developed in order to describe the waste management problem. Apart from the bi-objective approach, the major innovations of the model are (1) the detailed modeling considering 34 materials and 42 technologies, (2) the detailed calculation of the energy content of the various streams based on the detailed material balances, and (3) the incorporation of the IPCC guidelines for the CH{sub 4} generated in the landfills (first order decay model). The equations of the model are described in full detail. Finally, the whole approach is illustrated with a case study referring to the

  8. Development of a Hydrodynamic Model for Skagit River Estuary for Estuarine Restoration Feasibility Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Liu, Hedong; Khangaonkar, Tarang P.

    2006-08-03

    The Skagit River is the largest river in the Puget Sound estuarine system. It discharges about 39% of total sediment and more than 20% of freshwater into Puget Sound. The Skagit River delta provides rich estuarine and freshwater habitats for salmon and many other wildlife species. Over the past 150 years, economic development in the Skagit River delta has resulted in significant losses of wildlife habitat, particularly due to construction of dikes. Diked portion of the delta is known as Fir Island where irrigation practices for agriculture land over the last century has resulted in land subsidence. This has also caused reduced efficiency of drainage network and impeded fish passages through the area. In this study, a three-dimensional tidal circulation model was developed for the Skagit River delta to assist estuarine restoration in the Fir Island area. The hydrodynamic model used in the study is the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The hydrodynamic model was calibrated using field data collected from the study area specifically for the model development. Wetting and drying processes in the estuarine delta are simulated in the hydrodynamic model. The calibrated model was applied to simulate different restoration alternatives and provide guidance for estuarine restoration and management. Specifically, the model was used to help select and design configurations that would improve the supply of sediment and freshwater to the mudflats and tidal marsh areas outside of diked regions and then improve the estuarine habitats for salmon migration.

  9. An Update of the Analytical Groundwater Modeling to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Afton Solar Energy Zone

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Quinn, John J.; Greer, Christopher B.; Carr, Adrianne E.

    2014-10-01

    The purpose of this study is to update a one-dimensional analytical groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal in support of utility-scale solar energy development at the Afton Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program. This report describes the modeling for assessing the drawdown associated with SEZ groundwater pumping rates for a 20-year duration considering three categories of water demand (high, medium, and low) based on technology-specific considerations. The 2012 modeling effort published in the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Solar Energy Development in Six Southwestern States (Solar PEIS; BLM and DOE 2012) has been refined based on additional information described below in an expanded hydrogeologic discussion.

  10. A method for the assessment of specific energy distribution in a model tumor system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Noska, M.A.

    1996-12-31

    Due to the short range of alpha particles in tissue, the calculation of dose from internally deposited alpha emitters requires a detailed analysis of the microscopic distribution of the radionuclide in order to determine the spatial distribution of energy emission events and, from this, the spatial distribution of dose. In the present study, the authors used quantitative autoradiography (QAR) to assess the microdistribution of a radiolabeled monoclonal antibody (MAb) fragment in human glioma xenografts in mice.

  11. The Prospect of using Three-Dimensional Earth Models To Improve Nuclear Explosion Monitoring and Ground Motion Hazard Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Antoun, T; Harris, D; Lay, T; Myers, S C; Pasyanos, M E; Richards, P; Rodgers, A J; Walter, W R; Zucca, J J

    2008-02-11

    The last ten years have brought rapid growth in the development and use of three-dimensional (3D) seismic models of earth structure at crustal, regional and global scales. In order to explore the potential for 3D seismic models to contribute to important societal applications, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a 'Workshop on Multi-Resolution 3D Earth Models to Predict Key Observables in Seismic Monitoring and Related Fields' on June 6 and 7, 2007 in Berkeley, California. The workshop brought together academic, government and industry leaders in the research programs developing 3D seismic models and methods for the nuclear explosion monitoring and seismic ground motion hazard communities. The workshop was designed to assess the current state of work in 3D seismology and to discuss a path forward for determining if and how 3D earth models and techniques can be used to achieve measurable increases in our capabilities for monitoring underground nuclear explosions and characterizing seismic ground motion hazards. This paper highlights some of the presentations, issues, and discussions at the workshop and proposes a path by which to begin quantifying the potential contribution of progressively refined 3D seismic models in critical applied arenas.

  12. Analysis of Wind Turbine Simulation Models: Assessment of Simplified versus Complete Methodologies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Honrubia-Escribano, A.; Jimenez-Buendia, F.; Molina-Garcia, A.; Fuentes-Moreno, J. A.; Muljadi, Eduard; Gomez-Lazaro, E.

    2015-09-14

    This paper presents the current status of simplified wind turbine models used for power system stability analysis. This work is based on the ongoing work being developed in IEC 61400-27. This international standard, for which a technical committee was convened in October 2009, is focused on defining generic (also known as simplified) simulation models for both wind turbines and wind power plants. The results of the paper provide an improved understanding of the usability of generic models to conduct power system simulations.

  13. Description and assessment of structural and temperature models in the FRAP-T6 code. [PWR; BWR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Siefken, L.J.

    1983-01-01

    The FRAP-T6 code was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) for the purpose of calculating the transient performance of light water reactor fuel rods during reactor transients ranging from mild operational transients to severe hypothetical loss-of-coolant accidents. An important application of the FRAP-T6 code is to calculate the structural performance of fuel rod cladding. The capabilities of the FRAP-T6 code are assessed by comparisons of code calculations with the measurements of several hundred in-pile experiments on fuel rods. The results of the assessments show that the code accurately and efficiently models the structural and thermal response of fuel rods.

  14. A new analytic-adaptive model for EGS assessment, development and management support

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    This project will develop an in depth model of EGS systems that will allow engineers, practitioners, and researchers to more accurately predict how new fluid technologies would work in a reservoir.

  15. Dynamic nuclear renography kinetic analysis: Four-compartment model for assessing kidney function

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Raswan, T. R. Haryanto, F.

    2014-09-30

    Dynamic nuclear renography method produces TACs of kidneys and bladder. Multiple TACs data can be further analyzed to obtain the overview of urinary system's condition. Tracer kinetic analysis was performed using four-compartment models. The system's model consist of four irreversible compartment with four transport constants (k1, k2, k3 and k4). The mathematical expressions of tracer's distributions is fitted to experimental data (TACs) resulting in model constants. This transport constants represent the urinary system behavior, and later can be used for analyzing system's condition. Different intervals of kinetics parameter are clearly shown by abnormal system with respect to the normal one. Furthermore, the system with delayed uptake has 82% lower uptake parameters (k1 and k2) than normal one. Meanwhile, the system with prolonged clearance time has its kinetics parameters k3 or k4 lower than the others. This model is promising for quantitatively describe urinary system's function especially if supplied with more data.

  16. Combining Turbine Blade-Strike and Life Cycle Models to Assess Mitigation Strategies for Fish Passing Dams

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferguson, John W.; Ploskey, Gene R.; Leonardsson, Kjell; Zabel, Richard W.; Lundqvist, Hans

    2008-08-01

    Combining the two models produced a rapid, cost effective tool for assessing dam passage impacts to fish populations and prioritizing among mitigation strategies for conserving fish stocks in regulated rivers. Estimated mortality of juvenile and adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and sea trout (S. trutta) passing turbines at two dams in northern Sweden was significantly higher for Kaplan turbines compared to Francis turbines, and for adult fish compared to juveniles based on blade strike models. Mean probability of mortality ranged from 6.7% for salmon smolts passing Francis turbines to >100% for adult salmon passing Kaplan turbines. Life cycle modeling allowed benefits to be assessed for three alternatives that mitigated this mortality. Salmon population responses varied considerably among alternatives and rivers: growth rates improved as much as 17.9%, female escapements increased up to 669%, and more than 1,300 additional female salmon were produced in one case. Protecting both smolts and adults provided benefits, and in one river, mitigating turbine mortality alone was estimated to have met the production capacity of the available habitat.

  17. A Prototype Performance Assessment Model for Generic Deep Borehole Repository for High-Level Nuclear Waste - 12132

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Joon H.; Arnold, Bill W.; Swift, Peter N.; Hadgu, Teklu; Freeze, Geoff; Wang, Yifeng

    2012-07-01

    A deep borehole repository is one of the four geologic disposal system options currently under study by the U.S. DOE to support the development of a long-term strategy for geologic disposal of commercial used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). The immediate goal of the generic deep borehole repository study is to develop the necessary modeling tools to evaluate and improve the understanding of the repository system response and processes relevant to long-term disposal of UNF and HLW in a deep borehole. A prototype performance assessment model for a generic deep borehole repository has been developed using the approach for a mined geological repository. The preliminary results from the simplified deep borehole generic repository performance assessment indicate that soluble, non-sorbing (or weakly sorbing) fission product radionuclides, such as I-129, Se-79 and Cl-36, are the likely major dose contributors, and that the annual radiation doses to hypothetical future humans associated with those releases may be extremely small. While much work needs to be done to validate the model assumptions and parameters, these preliminary results highlight the importance of a robust seal design in assuring long-term isolation, and suggest that deep boreholes may be a viable alternative to mined repositories for disposal of both HLW and UNF. (authors)

  18. A New Analytic-Adaptive Model for EGS Assessment, Development and Management Support

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Danko, George L

    2014-05-29

    To increase understanding of the energy extraction capacity of Enhanced Geothermal System(s) (EGS), a numerical model development and application project is completed. The general objective of the project is to develop and apply a new, data-coupled Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical (T-H-M-C) model in which the four internal components can be freely selected from existing simulation software without merging and cross-combining a diverse set of computational codes. Eight tasks are completed during the project period. The results are reported in five publications, an MS thesis, twelve quarterly, and two annual reports to DOE. Two US patents have also been issued during the project period, with one patent application originated prior to the start of the project. The Multiphase Physical Transport Modeling Method and Modeling System (U.S. Patent 8,396,693 B2, 2013), a key element in the GHE sub-model solution, is successfully used for EGS studies. The Geothermal Energy Extraction System and Method" invention (U.S. Patent 8,430,166 B2, 2013) originates from the time of project performance, describing a new fluid flow control solution. The new, coupled T-H-M-C numerical model will help analyzing and designing new, efficient EGS systems.

  19. Assessing the use of reflectance spectroscopy in determining CsCl stress in the model species Arabidopsis thaliana

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Martinez, N. E.; Sharp, J. L.; Kuhne, W. W.; Johnson, T. E.; Stafford, C. T.; Duff, M. C.

    2015-11-23

    Here, reflectance spectroscopy is a rapid and non-destructive analytical technique that may be used for assessing plant stress, and has potential applications for use in remediation. Changes in reflectance such as that due to metal stress may occur before damage is visible, and existing studies have shown that metal stress does cause changes in plant reflectance. To further investigate the potential use of reflectance spectroscopy as a method for assessing metal stress in plants, an exploratory study was conducted in which Arabidopsis thaliana plants were treated twice weekly in a laboratory setting with varying levels (0, 0.5, or 5 mMmore » (millimolar)) of caesium chloride (CsCl) solution, and reflectance spectra were collected every week for three weeks using an Analytical Spectral Devices FieldSpec Pro spectroradiometer with both a contact probe (CP) and a field of view (FOV) probe at 36.8 and 66.7 cm, respectively, above the plant. Plants were harvested each week after spectra collection for determination of relative water content and chlorophyll content. A visual assessment of the plants was also conducted using point observations on a uniform grid of 81 points. A mixed-effects model analysis was conducted for each vegetation index (VI) considered to determine the effects of length of treatment, treatment level, view with which spectra were acquired, and the interactions of these terms. Two-way analyses of variance (ANOVAs) were performed on the aforementioned endpoints (e.g. chlorophyll content) to determine the significance of the effects of treatment level and length of treatment. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to develop a predictive model for each endpoint, considering VI acquired at each view (CP, high FOV, and low FOV). Of the 14 VI considered, 8 were included in the MLR models. Contact probe readings and FOV readings differed significantly, but FOV measurements were generally consistent at each height.« less

  20. A multi-model assessment of pollution transport to the Arctic

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shindell, D T; Chin, M; Dentener, F; Doherty, R M; Faluvegi, G; Fiore, A M; Hess, P; Koch, D M; MacKenzie, I A; Sanderson, M G; Schultz, M G; Schulz, M; Stevenson, D S; Teich, H; Textor, C; Wild, O; Bergmann, D J; Bey, I; Bian, H; Cuvelier, C; Duncan, B N; Folberth, G; Horowitz, L W; Jonson, J; Kaminski, J W; Marmer, E; Park, R; Pringle, K J; Schroeder, S; Szopa, S; Takemura, T; Zeng, G; Keating, T J; Zuber, A

    2008-03-13

    We examine the response of Arctic gas and aerosol concentrations to perturbations in pollutant emissions from Europe, East and South Asia, and North America using results from a coordinated model intercomparison. These sensitivities to regional emissions (mixing ratio change per unit emission) vary widely across models and species. Intermodel differences are systematic, however, so that the relative importance of different regions is robust. North America contributes the most to Arctic ozone pollution. For aerosols and CO, European emissions dominate at the Arctic surface but East Asian emissions become progressively more important with altitude, and are dominant in the upper troposphere. Sensitivities show strong seasonality: surface sensitivities typically maximize during boreal winter for European and during spring for East Asian and North American emissions. Mid-tropospheric sensitivities, however, nearly always maximize during spring or summer for all regions. Deposition of black carbon (BC) onto Greenland is most sensitive to North American emissions. North America and Europe each contribute {approx}40% of total BC deposition to Greenland, with {approx}20% from East Asia. Elsewhere in the Arctic, both sensitivity and total BC deposition are dominated by European emissions. Model diversity for aerosols is especially large, resulting primarily from differences in aerosol physical and chemical processing (including removal). Comparison of modeled aerosol concentrations with observations indicates problems in the models, and perhaps, interpretation of the measurements. For gas phase pollutants such as CO and O{sub 3}, which are relatively well-simulated, the processes contributing most to uncertainties depend on the source region and altitude examined. Uncertainties in the Arctic surface CO response to emissions perturbations are dominated by emissions for East Asian sources, while uncertainties in transport, emissions, and oxidation are comparable for European

  1. One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Tesfa, Teklu K.; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Ying; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-11-18

    An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model including a waterdemand model is coupled offline with a land surface hydrology routing water resources management model. A spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to project the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrated reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi and Ohio). Implications for the future flow regulation, water supply and supply deficit are investigated using a climate change projection with the B1 emission scenario which affects both natural flow and water demand. Over the Midwest, changes in flow regulation are mostly driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins. The changes in flow and demand have a combined effect on the Missouri Summer regulated flow. The supply deficit tends to be driven by the change in flow over the region. Spatial analysis demonstrates the relationship between the supply deficit and the change in demand over urban areas not along a main river or with limited storage, and over areas upstream of groundwater dependent fields with therefore overestimated demand.

  2. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume II. SPAHR introductory guide

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of responses, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projects are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. This volume gives the user of the SPAHR program the information required to operate the program when it is up and running on the computer. It assumes that the user is familiar with the concepts and terms relating to demography and health risk assessment. It contains a brief description of all commands and options available in SPAHR, as well as a user-oriented description of the structure and operation of the control system and language processor.

  3. Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Rawlins, M. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Kimball, J. S.; Dass, P.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; et al

    2015-07-28

    A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960–2009 at 0.5° resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate modelmore » simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO2 fluxes derived from site-based eddy covariance measurements as well as regional-scale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data. The site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m⁻² yr⁻², equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960–1969 vs. 2000–2009), with a weakening CO2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in

  4. Use of Combined Biogeochemical Model Approaches and Empirical Data to Assess Critical Loads of Nitrogen

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fenn, Mark E.; Driscoll, Charles; Zhou, Qingtao; Rao, Leela E.; Meixner, Tom; Allen, Edith B.; Yuan, Fengming; Sullivan, Timothy J.

    2015-01-01

    Empirical and dynamic biogeochemical modelling are complementary approaches for determining the critical load (CL) of atmospheric nitrogen (N) or other constituent deposition that an ecosystem can tolerate without causing ecological harm. The greatest benefits are obtained when these approaches are used in combination. Confounding environmental factors can complicate the determination of empirical CLs across depositional gradients, while the experimental application of N amendments for estimating the CL does not realistically mimic the effects of chronic atmospheric N deposition. Biogeochemical and vegetation simulation models can provide CL estimates and valuable ecosystem response information, allowing for past and future scenario testing with various combinations of environmental factors, pollutants, pollutant control options, land management, and ecosystem response parameters. Even so, models are fundamentally gross simplifications of the real ecosystems they attempt to simulate. Empirical approaches are vital as a check on simulations and CL estimates, to parameterize models, and to elucidate mechanisms and responses under real world conditions. In this chapter, we provide examples of empirical and modelled N CL approaches in ecosystems from three regions of the United States: mixed conifer forest, desert scrub and pinyon- juniper woodland in California; alpine catchments in the Rocky Mountains; and lakes in the Adirondack region of New York state.

  5. Assessing FPAR Source and Parameter Optimization Scheme in Application of a Diagnostic Carbon Flux Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Turner, D P; Ritts, W D; Wharton, S; Thomas, C; Monson, R; Black, T A

    2009-02-26

    The combination of satellite remote sensing and carbon cycle models provides an opportunity for regional to global scale monitoring of terrestrial gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem production. FPAR (the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the plant canopy) is a critical input to diagnostic models, however little is known about the relative effectiveness of FPAR products from different satellite sensors nor about the sensitivity of flux estimates to different parameterization approaches. In this study, we used multiyear observations of carbon flux at four eddy covariance flux tower sites within the conifer biome to evaluate these factors. FPAR products from the MODIS and SeaWiFS sensors, and the effects of single site vs. cross-site parameter optimization were tested with the CFLUX model. The SeaWiFs FPAR product showed greater dynamic range across sites and resulted in slightly reduced flux estimation errors relative to the MODIS product when using cross-site optimization. With site-specific parameter optimization, the flux model was effective in capturing seasonal and interannual variation in the carbon fluxes at these sites. The cross-site prediction errors were lower when using parameters from a cross-site optimization compared to parameter sets from optimization at single sites. These results support the practice of multisite optimization within a biome for parameterization of diagnostic carbon flux models.

  6. Fish Passage Assessment of an Advanced Hydropower Turbine and Conventional Turbine Using Blade-strike Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deng, Zhiqun; Carlson, Thomas J.; Dauble, Dennis D.; Ploskey, Gene R.

    2011-01-04

    In the Columbia and Snake River basins, several species of Pacific salmon were listed under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 due to significant declines of fish population. Dam operators and design engineers are thus faced with the task of making those hydroelectric facilities more ecologically friendly through changes in hydro-turbine design and operation. Public Utility District No. 2 of Grant County, Washington, applied for re-licensing from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to replace the 10 turbines at Wanapum Dam with advanced hydropower turbines that were designed to increase power generation and improve fish passage conditions. We applied both deterministic and stochastic blade-strike models to the newly installed turbine and an existing turbine. Modeled probabilities were compared to the results of a large-scale live fish survival study and a sensor fish study under the same operational parameters. Overall, injury rates predicted by the deterministic model were higher than experimental rates of injury while those predicted by the stochastic model were in close agreement with experiment results. Fish orientation at the time of entry into the plane of the leading edges of the turbine runner blades was an important factor contributing to uncertainty in modeled results. The advanced design turbine had slightly higher modeled injury rates than the existing turbine design; however, there was no statistical evidence that suggested significant differences in blade-strike injuries between the two turbines and the hypothesis that direct fish survival rate through the advanced hydropower turbine is equal or better than that through the conventional turbine could not be rejected.

  7. Spent nuclear fuel as a waste form for geologic disposal: Assessment and recommendations on data and modeling needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Van Luik, A.E.; Apted, M.J.; Bailey, W.J.; Haberman, J.H.; Shade, J.S.; Guenther, R.E.; Serne, R.J.; Gilbert, E.R.; Peters, R.; Williford, R.E.

    1987-09-01

    This study assesses the status of knowledge pertinent to evaluating the behavior of spent nuclear fuel as a waste form in geologic disposal systems and provides background information that can be used by the DOE to address the information needs that pertain to compliance with applicable standards and regulations. To achieve this objective, applicable federal regulations were reviewed, expected disposal environments were described, the status of spent-fuel modeling was summarized, and information regarding the characteristics and behavior of spent fuel was compiled. This compiled information was then evaluated from a performance modeling perspective to identify further information needs. A number of recommendations were made concerning information still needed to enhance understanding of spent-fuel behavior as a waste form in geologic repositories. 335 refs., 22 figs., 44 tabs.

  8. Assessment of a mechanistic model in U-Pu-Zr metallic alloy fuel fission-gas behavior simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yun, D.; Rest, J.; Yacout, A. M.

    2012-07-01

    A mechanistic kinetic rate theory model originally developed for the prediction of fission gas behavior in oxide nuclear fuels under steady-state and transient conditions has been assessed to look at its applicability to model fission gas behavior in U-Pu-Zr metallic alloy fuel. In order to capture and validate the underlying physics for irradiated U-Pu-Zr fuels, the mechanistic model was applied to the simulation of fission gas release, fission gas and fission product induced swelling, and the evolution of the gas bubble size distribution in three different fuel zones: the outer {alpha}-U, the intermediate, and the inner {gamma}-U zones. Due to its special microstructural features, the {alpha}-U zone in U-Pu-Zr fuels is believed to contribute the largest fraction of fission gas release among the different fuel zones. It is shown that with the use of small effective grain sizes, the mechanistic model can predict fission gas release that is consistent with (though slightly lower than) experimentally measured data. These simulation results are comparable to the experimentally measured fission gas release since the mechanism of fission gas transport through the densely distributed laminar porosity in the {alpha}-U zone is analogous to the mechanism of fission gas transport through the interconnected gas bubble porosity utilized in the mechanistic model. Detailed gas bubble size distributions predicted with the mechanistic model in both the intermediate zone and the high temperature {gamma}-U zone of U-Pu-Zr fuel are also compared to experimental measurements from available SEM micrographs. These comparisons show good agreements between the simulation results and experimental measurements, and therefore provide crucial guidelines for the selection of key physical parameters required for modeling these two zones. In addition, the results of parametric studies for several key parameters are presented for both the intermediate zone and the {gamma}-U zone simulations

  9. A novel QSAR model of Salmonella mutagenicity and its application in the safety assessment of drug impurities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valencia, Antoni; Prous, Josep; Mora, Oscar; Sadrieh, Nakissa; Valerio, Luis G.

    2013-12-15

    As indicated in ICH M7 draft guidance, in silico predictive tools including statistically-based QSARs and expert analysis may be used as a computational assessment for bacterial mutagenicity for the qualification of impurities in pharmaceuticals. To address this need, we developed and validated a QSAR model to predict Salmonella t. mutagenicity (Ames assay outcome) of pharmaceutical impurities using Prous Institute's Symmetry℠, a new in silico solution for drug discovery and toxicity screening, and the Mold2 molecular descriptor package (FDA/NCTR). Data was sourced from public benchmark databases with known Ames assay mutagenicity outcomes for 7300 chemicals (57% mutagens). Of these data, 90% was used to train the model and the remaining 10% was set aside as a holdout set for validation. The model's applicability to drug impurities was tested using a FDA/CDER database of 951 structures, of which 94% were found within the model's applicability domain. The predictive performance of the model is acceptable for supporting regulatory decision-making with 84 ± 1% sensitivity, 81 ± 1% specificity, 83 ± 1% concordance and 79 ± 1% negative predictivity based on internal cross-validation, while the holdout dataset yielded 83% sensitivity, 77% specificity, 80% concordance and 78% negative predictivity. Given the importance of having confidence in negative predictions, an additional external validation of the model was also carried out, using marketed drugs known to be Ames-negative, and obtained 98% coverage and 81% specificity. Additionally, Ames mutagenicity data from FDA/CFSAN was used to create another data set of 1535 chemicals for external validation of the model, yielding 98% coverage, 73% sensitivity, 86% specificity, 81% concordance and 84% negative predictivity. - Highlights: • A new in silico QSAR model to predict Ames mutagenicity is described. • The model is extensively validated with chemicals from the FDA and the public domain. • Validation tests

  10. Use of ARM Products in Reanalysis Applications and IPCC Model Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Walsh, John E; Chapman, William L

    2011-09-30

    Year-3 of the project was spent developing an observed cloud climatology for Barrow, AK and relating the observed cloud fractions to the surface circulation patterns and locally observed winds. Armed with this information, we identified errors and sources of errors of cloud fraction simulations by numerical models in the Arctic. Specifically, we compared the cloud simulations output by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to corresponding observed cloud fractions obtained by the Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for four mid-season months: (January, April, July, and October). Reanalyses are obtained from numerical weather prediction models that are not run in real-time. Instead, a reanalysis model ingests a wide variety of historical observations for the purpose of producing a gridded dataset of many model-derived quantities that are as temporally homogeneous as possible. Therefore, reanalysis output can be used as a proxy for observations, although some biases and other errors are inevitable because of model parameterizations and observational gaps. In the observational analysis we documented the seasonality of cloudiness at the north slope including cloud base height and dependence on synoptic regime. We followed this with an evaluation of the associations of wind-speed and direction and cloud amounts in both the observational record and the reanalysis model. The Barrow cloud fraction data show that clear conditions are most often associated with anomalous high pressure to the north of Barrow, especially in spring and early summer. Overcast skies are most commonly associated with anomalous low pressure to the south. The observational analysis shows that low, boundary layer clouds are the most common type of cloud observed North Slope ARM observing site. However, these near-surface clouds are a major source of errors in the NARR simulations. When compared to observations, the NARR over-simulates the fraction of

  11. Management of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site using Decision-based, Probabilistic Performance Assessment Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carilli, J.; Crowe, B.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Stockton, T.; Catlett, K.; Yucel, V.

    2003-02-27

    Low-level radioactive waste from cleanup activities at the Nevada Test Site and from multiple sites across the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex is disposed at two active Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMS) on the Nevada Test Site. These facilities, which are managed by the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office, were recently designated as one of two regional disposal centers and yearly volumes of disposed waste now exceed 50,000 m3 (> 2 million ft3). To safely and cost-effectively manage the disposal facilities, the Waste Management Division of Environmental Management has implemented decision-based management practices using flexible and problem-oriented probabilistic performance assessment modeling. Deterministic performance assessments and composite analyses were completed originally for the Area 5 and Area 3 RWMSs located in, respectively, Frenchman Flat and Yucca Flat on the Nevada Test Site. These documents provide the technical bases for issuance of disposal authorization statements for continuing operation of the disposal facilities. Both facilities are now in a maintenance phase that requires testing of conceptual models, reduction of uncertainty, and site monitoring all leading to eventual closure of the facilities and transition to long-term stewardship.

  12. Assessing the Vulnerability of Large Critical Infrastructure Using Fully-Coupled Blast Effects Modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McMichael, L D; Noble, C R; Margraf, J D; Glascoe, L G

    2009-03-26

    Structural failures, such as the MacArthur Maze I-880 overpass in Oakland, California and the I-35 bridge in Minneapolis, Minnesota, are recent examples of our national infrastructure's fragility and serve as an important reminder of such infrastructure in our everyday lives. These two failures, as well as the World Trade Center's collapse and the levee failures in New Orleans, highlight the national importance of protecting our infrastructure as much as possible against acts of terrorism and natural hazards. This paper describes a process for evaluating the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to large blast loads using a fully-coupled finite element approach. A description of the finite element software and modeling technique is discussed along with the experimental validation of the numerical tools. We discuss how such an approach can be used for specific problems such as modeling the progressive collapse of a building.

  13. Interactive Photochemistry in Earth System Models to Assess Uncertainty in Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; Nicolau, Alex; Veidenbaum, Alex; Smith, Philip Cameron; Bergmann, Dan

    2014-11-07

    Atmospheric chemistry controls the abundances and hence climate forcing of important greenhouse gases including N2O, CH4, HFCs, CFCs, and O3. Attributing climate change to human activities requires, at a minimum, accurate models of the chemistry and circulation of the atmosphere that relate emissions to abundances. This DOE-funded research provided realistic, yet computationally optimized and affordable, photochemical modules to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that augment the CESM capability to explore the uncertainty in future stratospheric-tropospheric ozone, stratospheric circulation, and thus the lifetimes of chemically controlled greenhouse gases from climate simulations. To this end, we have successfully implemented Fast-J (radiation algorithm determining key chemical photolysis rates) and Linoz v3.0 (linearized photochemistry for interactive O3, N2O, NOy and CH4) packages in LLNL-CESM and for the first time demonstrated how change in O2 photolysis rate within its uncertainty range can significantly impact on the stratospheric climate and ozone abundances. From the UCI side, this proposal also helped LLNL develop a CAM-Superfast Chemistry model that was implemented for the IPCC AR5 and contributed chemical-climate simulations to CMIP5.

  14. Developing an oil generation model for resource assessment of Bakken formation, Williston Basin

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Charpentier, R.R.; Krystinik, K.B.

    1984-04-01

    A model was developed for oil generation in the Devonian and Mississippian Bakken Formation, which has been proposed as the main hydrocarbon source rock within the Williston basin. The data consisted of formation temperatures and of density, neutron-porosity, resistivity, and gamma-ray logs from more than 250 wells in North Dakota and Montana. The upper and the lower shale members of the Bakken Formation were studied. Regression analysis, analysis of residuals, and cluster, discriminant, and factor analyses were used in an attempt to separate depositional effects--especially variations in organic content-from maturity. Regression and analysis of residuals indicate differences both areally and between the upper and lower members. In the upper member, and less strongly in the lower member, the center of the basin differs from the basin margins in that it has extreme residuals--either high or low. Clustering and residual analyses show roughly the same areal patterns. Inverse relationships, similar to those suggested by other workers, were found between formation temperature and organic content and between density logs and organic content. Also found, though, was that the addition of other factors, such as neutron porosity, helps to indicate organic content. Preliminary results show that it may be possible to model oil generation by using statistical techniques on well-log data. In particular, the model has the potential to refine estimates of the amount of hydrocarbons generated by the Bakken Formation in the Williston basin.

  15. A methodology for assessing the market benefits of alternative motor fuels: The Alternative Fuels Trade Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leiby, P.N.

    1993-09-01

    This report describes a modeling methodology for examining the prospective economic benefits of displacing motor gasoline use by alternative fuels. The approach is based on the Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). AFTM development was undertaken by the US Department of Energy (DOE) as part of a longer term study of alternative fuels issues. The AFTM is intended to assist with evaluating how alternative fuels may be promoted effectively, and what the consequences of substantial alternative fuels use might be. Such an evaluation of policies and consequences of an alternative fuels program is being undertaken by DOE as required by Section 502(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Interest in alternative fuels is based on the prospective economic, environmental and energy security benefits from the substitution of these fuels for conventional transportation fuels. The transportation sector is heavily dependent on oil. Increased oil use implies increased petroleum imports, with much of the increase coming from OPEC countries. Conversely, displacement of gasoline has the potential to reduce US petroleum imports, thereby reducing reliance on OPEC oil and possibly weakening OPEC`s ability to extract monopoly profits. The magnitude of US petroleum import reduction, the attendant fuel price changes, and the resulting US benefits, depend upon the nature of oil-gas substitution and the supply and demand behavior of other world regions. The methodology applies an integrated model of fuel market interactions to characterize these effects.

  16. A dynamic model for assessing the effects of management strategies on the reduction of construction and demolition waste

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yuan Hongping; Chini, Abdol R.; Lu Yujie; Shen Liyin

    2012-03-15

    illustrate the validation and application of the proposed model. Results of the case study not only built confidence in the model so that it can be used for quantitative analysis, but also assessed and compared the effect of three designed policy scenarios on C and D waste reduction. One major contribution of this study is the development of a dynamic model for evaluating C and D waste reduction strategies under various scenarios, so that best management strategies could be identified before being implemented in practice.

  17. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance

  18. MELCOR 1.8.5 modeling aspects of fission product release, transport and deposition an assessment with recommendations.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gauntt, Randall O.

    2010-04-01

    The Phebus and VERCORS data have played an important role in contemporary understanding and modeling of fission product release and transport from damaged light water reactor fuel. The data from these test programs have allowed improvement of MELCOR modeling of release and transport processes for both low enrichment uranium fuel as well as high burnup and mixed oxide (MOX) fuels. This paper discusses the synthesis of these findings in the MELCOR severe accident code. Based on recent assessments of MELCOR 1.8.5 fission product release modeling against the Phebus FPT-1 test and on observations from the ISP-46 exercise, modifications to the default MELCOR 1.8.5 release models are recommended. The assessments identified an alternative set of Booth diffusion parameters recommended by ORNL (ORNL-Booth), which produced significantly improved release predictions for cesium and other fission product groups. Some adjustments to the scaling factors in the ORNL-Booth model were made for selected fission product groups, including UO{sub 2}, Mo and Ru in order to obtain better comparisons with the FPT-1 data. The adjusted model, referred to as 'Modified ORNL-Booth,' was subsequently compared to original ORNL VI fission product release experiments and to more recently performed French VERCORS tests, and the comparisons was as favorable or better than the original CORSOR-M MELCOR default release model. These modified ORNL-Booth parameters, input to MELCOR 1.8.5 as 'sensitivity coefficients' (i.e. user input that over-rides the code defaults) are recommended for the interim period until improved release models can be implemented into MELCOR. For the case of ruthenium release in air-oxidizing conditions, some additional modifications to the Ru class vapor pressure are recommended based on estimates of the RuO{sub 2} vapor pressure over mildly hyperstoichiometric UO{sub 2}. The increased vapor pressure for this class significantly increases the net transport of Ru from the fuel to

  19. A Qualitative Readiness-Requirements Assessment Model for Enterprise Big-Data Infrastructure Investment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olama, Mohammed M; McNair, Wade; Sukumar, Sreenivas R; Nutaro, James J

    2014-01-01

    In the last three decades, there has been an exponential growth in the area of information technology providing the information processing needs of data-driven businesses in government, science, and private industry in the form of capturing, staging, integrating, conveying, analyzing, and transferring data that will help knowledge workers and decision makers make sound business decisions. Data integration across enterprise warehouses is one of the most challenging steps in the big data analytics strategy. Several levels of data integration have been identified across enterprise warehouses: data accessibility, common data platform, and consolidated data model. Each level of integration has its own set of complexities that requires a certain amount of time, budget, and resources to implement. Such levels of integration are designed to address the technical challenges inherent in consolidating the disparate data sources. In this paper, we present a methodology based on industry best practices to measure the readiness of an organization and its data sets against the different levels of data integration. We introduce a new Integration Level Model (ILM) tool, which is used for quantifying an organization and data system s readiness to share data at a certain level of data integration. It is based largely on the established and accepted framework provided in the Data Management Association (DAMA-DMBOK). It comprises several key data management functions and supporting activities, together with several environmental elements that describe and apply to each function. The proposed model scores the maturity of a system s data governance processes and provides a pragmatic methodology for evaluating integration risks. The higher the computed scores, the better managed the source data system and the greater the likelihood that the data system can be brought in at a higher level of integration.

  20. Updated Life-Cycle Assessment of Aluminum Production and Semi-fabrication for the GREET Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dai, Qiang; Kelly, Jarod C.; Burnham, Andrew; Elgowainy, Amgad

    2015-09-01

    This report serves as an update for the life-cycle analysis (LCA) of aluminum production based on the most recent data representing the state-of-the-art of the industry in North America. The 2013 Aluminum Association (AA) LCA report on the environmental footprint of semifinished aluminum products in North America provides the basis for the update (The Aluminum Association, 2013). The scope of this study covers primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, as well as aluminum semi-fabrication processes including hot rolling, cold rolling, extrusion and shape casting. This report focuses on energy consumptions, material inputs and criteria air pollutant emissions for each process from the cradle-to-gate of aluminum, which starts from bauxite extraction, and ends with manufacturing of semi-fabricated aluminum products. The life-cycle inventory (LCI) tables compiled are to be incorporated into the vehicle cycle model of Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) Model for the release of its 2015 version.

  1. Assessing image quality and dose reduction of a new x-ray computed tomography iterative reconstruction algorithm using model observers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tseng, Hsin-Wu Kupinski, Matthew A.; Fan, Jiahua; Sainath, Paavana; Hsieh, Jiang

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: A number of different techniques have been developed to reduce radiation dose in x-ray computed tomography (CT) imaging. In this paper, the authors will compare task-based measures of image quality of CT images reconstructed by two algorithms: conventional filtered back projection (FBP), and a new iterative reconstruction algorithm (IR). Methods: To assess image quality, the authors used the performance of a channelized Hotelling observer acting on reconstructed image slices. The selected channels are dense difference Gaussian channels (DDOG).A body phantom and a head phantom were imaged 50 times at different dose levels to obtain the data needed to assess image quality. The phantoms consisted of uniform backgrounds with low contrast signals embedded at various locations. The tasks the observer model performed included (1) detection of a signal of known location and shape, and (2) detection and localization of a signal of known shape. The employed DDOG channels are based on the response of the human visual system. Performance was assessed using the areas under ROC curves and areas under localization ROC curves. Results: For signal known exactly (SKE) and location unknown/signal shape known tasks with circular signals of different sizes and contrasts, the authors’ task-based measures showed that a FBP equivalent image quality can be achieved at lower dose levels using the IR algorithm. For the SKE case, the range of dose reduction is 50%–67% (head phantom) and 68%–82% (body phantom). For the study of location unknown/signal shape known, the dose reduction range can be reached at 67%–75% for head phantom and 67%–77% for body phantom case. These results suggest that the IR images at lower dose settings can reach the same image quality when compared to full dose conventional FBP images. Conclusions: The work presented provides an objective way to quantitatively assess the image quality of a newly introduced CT IR algorithm. The performance of the

  2. Hydrogeologic analyses in support of the conceptual model for the LANL Area G LLRW performance assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vold, E.L.; Birdsell, K.; Rogers, D.; Springer, E.; Krier, D.; Turin, H.J.

    1996-04-01

    The Los Alamos National Laboratory low level radioactive waste disposal facility at Area G is currently completing a draft of the site Performance Assessment. Results from previous field studies have estimated a range in recharge rate up to 1 cm/yr. Recent estimates of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity for each stratigraphic layer under a unit gradient assumption show a wide range in recharge rate of 10{sup {minus}4} to 1 cm/yr depending upon location. Numerical computations show that a single net infiltration rate at the mesa surface does not match the moisture profile in each stratigraphic layer simultaneously, suggesting local source or sink terms possibly due to surface connected porous regions. The best fit to field data at deeper stratigraphic layers occurs for a net infiltration of about 0.1 cm/yr. A recent detailed analysis evaluated liquid phase vertical moisture flux, based on moisture profiles in several boreholes and van Genuchten fits to the hydraulic properties for each of the stratigraphic units. Results show a near surface infiltration region averages 8m deep, below which is a dry, low moisture content, and low flux region, where liquid phase recharge averages to zero. Analysis shows this low flux region is dominated by vapor movement. Field data from tritium diffusion studies, from pressure fluctuation attenuation studies, and from comparisons of in-situ and core sample permeabilities indicate that the vapor diffusion is enhanced above that expected in the matrix and is presumably due to enhanced flow through the fractures. Below this dry region within the mesa is a moisture spike which analyses show corresponds to a moisture source. The likely physical explanation is seasonal transient infiltration through surface-connected fractures. This anomalous region is being investigated in current field studies, because it is critical in understanding the moisture flux which continues to deeper regions through the unsaturated zone.

  3. Dynamic modeling of physical phenomena for probabilistic assessment of spent fuel accidents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Benjamin, A.S.

    1997-11-01

    If there should be an accident involving drainage of all the water from a spent fuel pool, the fuel elements will heat up until the heat produced by radioactive decay is balanced by that removed by natural convection to air, thermal radiation, and other means. If the temperatures become high enough for the cladding or other materials to ignite due to rapid oxidation, then some of the fuel might melt, leading to an undesirable release of radioactive materials. The amount of melting is dependent upon the fuel loading configuration and its age, the oxidation and melting characteristics of the materials, and the potential effectiveness of recovery actions. The authors have developed methods for modeling the pertinent physical phenomena and integrating the results with a probabilistic treatment of the uncertainty distributions. The net result is a set of complementary cumulative distribution functions for the amount of fuel melted.

  4. Heat Pump Water Heater Technology Assessment Based on Laboratory Research and Energy Simulation Models: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hudon, K.; Sparn, B.; Christensen, D.; Maguire, J.

    2012-02-01

    This paper explores the laboratory performance of five integrated Heat Pump Water Heaters (HPWHs) across a wide range of operating conditions representative of US climate regions. Laboratory results demonstrate the efficiency of this technology under most of the conditions tested and show that differences in control schemes and design features impact the performance of the individual units. These results were used to understand current model limitations, and then to bracket the energy savings potential for HPWH technology in various US climate regions. Simulation results show that HPWHs are expected to provide significant energy savings in many climate zones when compared to other types of water heaters (up to 64%, including impact on HVAC systems).

  5. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incinerator facility (east Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 4. Atmospheric dispersion and deposition modeling of emissions. Draft report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-11-01

    The report constitutes a comprehensive site-specific risk assessment for the WTI incineration facility located in East Liverpool, OH. Volume IV describes the air dispersion model used to estimate air concentrations and particle deposition, as well as the results of the modeling exercise.

  6. Calculating impacts of energy standards on energy demand in U.S. buildings with uncertainty in an integrated assessment model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scott, Michael J.; Daly, Don S.; Hathaway, John E.; Lansing, Carina S.; Liu, Ying; McJeon, Haewon C.; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Peterson, Marty J.; Rice, Jennie S.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, an integrated assessment model (IAM) uses a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The paper finds that aggressive building-energy codes and equipment standards are an effective, cost-saving way to reduce energy consumption in buildings and greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. states. This conclusion is robust to significant uncertainties in population, economic activity, climate, carbon prices, and technology performance and costs.

  7. A Multi-Methods Approach to HRA and Human Performance Modeling: A Field Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacques Hugo; David I Gertman

    2012-06-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) is a research reactor at the Idaho National Laboratory is primarily designed and used to test materials to be used in other, larger-scale and prototype reactors. The reactor offers various specialized systems and allows certain experiments to be run at their own temperature and pressure. The ATR Canal temporarily stores completed experiments and used fuel. It also has facilities to conduct underwater operations such as experiment examination or removal. In reviewing the ATR safety basis, a number of concerns were identified involving the ATR canal. A brief study identified ergonomic issues involving the manual handling of fuel elements in the canal that may increase the probability of human error and possible unwanted acute physical outcomes to the operator. In response to this concern, that refined the previous HRA scoping analysis by determining the probability of the inadvertent exposure of a fuel element to the air during fuel movement and inspection was conducted. The HRA analysis employed the SPAR-H method and was supplemented by information gained from a detailed analysis of the fuel inspection and transfer tasks. This latter analysis included ergonomics, work cycles, task duration, and workload imposed by tool and workplace characteristics, personal protective clothing, and operational practices that have the potential to increase physical and mental workload. Part of this analysis consisted of NASA-TLX analyses, combined with operational sequence analysis, computational human performance analysis (CHPA), and 3D graphical modeling to determine task failures and precursors to such failures that have safety implications. Experience in applying multiple analysis techniques in support of HRA methods is discussed.

  8. Mathematical modeling of positron emission tomography (PET) data to assess radiofluoride transport in living plants following petiolar administration

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Converse, Alexander K.; Ahlers, Elizabeth O.; Bryan, Tom W.; Hetue, Jackson D.; Lake, Katherine A.; Ellison, Paul A.; Engle, Jonathan W.; Barnhart, Todd E.; Nickles, Robert J.; Williams, Paul H.; et al

    2015-03-15

    Background: Ion transport is a fundamental physiological process that can be studied non-invasively in living plants with radiotracer imaging methods. Fluoride is a known phytotoxic pollutant and understanding its transport in plants after leaf absorption is of interest to those in agricultural areas near industrial sources of airborne fluoride. Here we report the novel use of a commercial, high-resolution, animal positron emission tomography (PET) scanner to trace a bolus of [¹⁸F]fluoride administered via bisected petioles of Brassica oleracea, an established model species, to simulate whole plant uptake of atmospheric fluoride. This methodology allows for the first time mathematical compartmental modelingmore » of fluoride transport in the living plant. Radiotracer kinetics in the stem were described with a single-parameter free- and trapped-compartment model and mean arrival times at different stem positions were calculated from the free-compartment time-activity curves. Results: After initiation of administration at the bisected leaf stalk, [¹⁸F] radioactivity climbed for approximately 10 minutes followed by rapid washout from the stem and equilibration within leaves. Kinetic modeling of transport in the stem yielded a trapping rate of 1.5 +/- 0.3%/min (mean +/- s.d., n = 3), velocity of 2.2 +/- 1.1 cm/min, and trapping fraction of 0.8 +/- 0.5%/cm. Conclusion: Quantitative assessment of physiologically meaningful transport parameters of fluoride in living plants is possible using standard positron emission tomography in combination with petiolar radiotracer administration. Movement of free fluoride was observed to be consistent with bulk flow in xylem, namely a rapid and linear change in position with respect to time. Trapping, likely in the apoplast, was observed. Future applications of the methods described here include studies of transport of other ions and molecules of interest in plant physiology.« less

  9. Downscaling Global Land Cover Projections from an Integrated Assessment Model for Use in Regional Analyses: Results and Evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick LB; Huang, Maoyi; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M.

    2014-06-05

    Projections of land cover change generated from Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at subregional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land use at the sub-continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5 degree).

  10. The Prospect of using Three-Dimensional Earth Models To Improve Nuclear Explosion Monitoring and Ground Motion Hazard Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zucca, J J; Walter, W R; Rodgers, A J; Richards, P; Pasyanos, M E; Myers, S C; Lay, T; Harris, D; Antoun, T

    2008-11-19

    The last ten years have brought rapid growth in the development and use of three-dimensional (3D) seismic models of Earth structure at crustal, regional and global scales. In order to explore the potential for 3D seismic models to contribute to important societal applications, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a 'Workshop on Multi-Resolution 3D Earth Models to Predict Key Observables in Seismic Monitoring and Related Fields' on June 6 and 7, 2007 in Berkeley, California. The workshop brought together academic, government and industry leaders in the research programs developing 3D seismic models and methods for the nuclear explosion monitoring and seismic ground motion hazard communities. The workshop was designed to assess the current state of work in 3D seismology and to discuss a path forward for determining if and how 3D Earth models and techniques can be used to achieve measurable increases in our capabilities for monitoring underground nuclear explosions and characterizing seismic ground motion hazards. This paper highlights some of the presentations, issues, and discussions at the workshop and proposes two specific paths by which to begin quantifying the potential contribution of progressively refined 3D seismic models in critical applied arenas. Seismic monitoring agencies are tasked with detection, location, and characterization of seismic activity in near real time. In the case of nuclear explosion monitoring or seismic hazard, decisions to further investigate a suspect event or to launch disaster relief efforts may rely heavily on real-time analysis and results. Because these are weighty decisions, monitoring agencies are regularly called upon to meticulously document and justify every aspect of their monitoring system. In order to meet this level of scrutiny and maintain operational robustness requirements, only mature technologies are considered for operational monitoring systems, and operational technology necessarily lags

  11. Intergranular stress-corrosion cracking of Ni-Cr-Fe Alloy 600 tubes in PWR primary water - review and assessment for model development. Final report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Garud, Y.S.; Gerber, T.L.

    1983-05-01

    The service performance of Ni-Cr-Fe Alloy 600 tubes with respect to primary-side intergranular stress-corrosion cracking (IGSCC) and related experimental observations are reviewed, assessed, and summarized. The qualitative trends suggested by these observations and the role of primary variables of IGSCC are discussed from the point of view of mechanistic considerations. The need for a quantitative model to predict the IGSCC is established. The review and assessment indicate that, in addition to the water chemistry and metallurgical variables, explicit consideration of stress (and attendant deformation, i.e., strain-rate) is essential for any evaluation of the IGSCC to be complete. A promising approach of quantitative model development is presented with the above background. The analytical-experimental work needed for the model development is suggested, and implementation of the model and potential benefits to utilities is briefly discussed.

  12. A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Naz, Bibi S; Tootle, Glenn

    2014-01-01

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.

  13. TH-E-BRF-07: Raman Spectroscopy for Radiation Treatment Response Assessment in a Lung Metastases Mouse Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Devpura, S; Barton, K; Brown, S; Siddiqui, F; Chetty, I; Sethi, S; Klein, M

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: Raman spectroscopy is an optical spectroscopic method used to probe chemical information about a target tissue. Our goal was to investigate whether Raman spectroscopy is able to distinguish lung tumors from normal lung tissue and whether this technique can identify the molecular changes induced by radiation. Methods: 4T1 mouse breast cancer cells were implanted subcutaneously into the flanks of 6 Balb/C female mice. Four additional mice were used as “normal lung” controls. After 14 days, 3 mice bearing tumors received 6Gy to the left lung with 6MV photons and the other three were treated as “unirradiated tumor” controls. At a 24-hour time point, lungs were excised and the specimens were sectioned using a cryostat; alternating sections were either stained with hematoxylin and eosin (H and E) for evaluation by a pathologist or unstained for Raman measurements. 240 total Raman spectra were collected; 84 from normal lung controls; 63 from unirradiated tumors and 64 from tumors irradiated with 6Gy in a single fraction. Raman spectra were also collected from normal lung tissues of mice with unirradiated tumors. Principal component analysis (PCA) and discriminant function analysis (DFA) were performed to analyze the data. Results: Raman bands assignable to DNA/RNA showed prominent contributions in tumor tissues while Raman bands associated with hemoglobin showed strong contributions in normal lung tissue. PCA/DFA analysis identified normal lung tissue and tumor with 100% and 98.4% accuracy, respectively, relative to pathologic scoring. Additionally, normal lung tissues from unirradiated mice bearing tumors were classified as normal with 100% accuracy. In a model consisting of unirradiated and irradiated tumors identification accuracy was 79.4% and 93.8% respectively, relative to pathologic assessment. Conclusion: Initial results demonstrate the promise for Raman spectroscopy in the diagnosis normal vs. lung metastases as well as the assessment of

  14. The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong; Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Wise, Marshall A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-01-19

    Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.

  15. Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle; Rabiti, Cristian; Kinoshita, Robert Arthur; Kim, Jong Suk; Deason, Wesley Ray; Boardman, Richard Doin; Garcia, Humberto E.

    2015-09-01

    An effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year 2015 (FY15). The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status on its progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, starting from a simulation strategy, a rigorous mathematical formulation has been achieved in which the economic optimization of a Nuclear Hybrid Energy System is presented as a constrained robust (under uncertainty) optimization problem. Some possible algorithms for the solution of the optimization problem are presented. A variation of the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation algorithm has been implemented in RAVEN and preliminary tests have been performed. The development of the software infrastructure to support the simulation of the whole NHES has also moved forward. The coupling between RAVEN and an implementation of the Modelica language (OpenModelica) has been implemented, migrated under several operating systems and tested using an adapted model of a desalination plant. In particular, this exercise was focused on testing the coupling of the different code systems; testing parallel, computationally expensive simulations on the INL cluster; and providing a proof of concept for the possibility of using surrogate models to represent the different NHES subsystems. Another important step was the porting of the RAVEN code under the Windows™ operating system. This accomplishment makes RAVEN compatible with the development environment that is being used for dynamic simulation of NHES components. A very simplified model of a NHES on the electric market has been built in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces even for stochastic constraints. This

  16. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 3 -- Residential and commercial sector DSM analyses: Detailed results from the DBEDT DSM assessment model; Part 1, Technical potential

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The Hawaii Demand-Side Management Resource Assessment was the fourth of seven projects in the Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) program. HES was designed by the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism (DBEDT) to produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. The purpose of Project 4 was to develop a comprehensive assessment of Hawaii`s demand-side management (DSM) resources. To meet this objective, the project was divided into two phases. The first phase included development of a DSM technology database and the identification of Hawaii commercial building characteristics through on-site audits. These Phase 1 products were then used in Phase 2 to identify expected energy impacts from DSM measures in typical residential and commercial buildings in Hawaii. The building energy simulation model DOE-2.1E was utilized to identify the DSM energy impacts. More detailed information on the typical buildings and the DOE-2.1E modeling effort is available in Reference Volume 1, ``Building Prototype Analysis``. In addition to the DOE-2.1E analysis, estimates of residential and commercial sector gas and electric DSM potential for the four counties of Honolulu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai through 2014 were forecasted by the new DBEDT DSM Assessment Model. Results from DBEDTs energy forecasting model, ENERGY 2020, were linked with results from DOE-2.1E building energy simulation runs and estimates of DSM measure impacts, costs, lifetime, and anticipated market penetration rates in the DBEDT DSM Model. Through its algorithms, estimates of DSM potential for each forecast year were developed. Using the load shape information from the DOE-2.1E simulation runs, estimates of electric peak demand impacts were developed. Numerous tables and figures illustrating the technical potential for demand-side management are included.

  17. Vehicle Technologies Office Merit Review 2015: Assessing the Outlook of US Oil Dependence Using Oil Security Metrics Model (OSMM)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Presentation given by Oak Ridge National Laboratory at 2015 DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program and Vehicle Technologies Office Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting about assessing the...

  18. Summary of Conceptual Models and Data Needs to Support the INL Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility Performance Assessment and Composite Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    A. Jeff Sondrup; Annette L. Schafter; Arthur S. Rood

    2010-09-01

    An overview of the technical approach and data required to support development of the performance assessment, and composite analysis are presented for the remote handled low-level waste disposal facility on-site alternative being considered at Idaho National Laboratory. Previous analyses and available data that meet requirements are identified and discussed. Outstanding data and analysis needs are also identified and summarized. The on-site disposal facility is being evaluated in anticipation of the closure of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the INL. An assessment of facility performance and of the composite performance are required to meet the Department of Energys Low-Level Waste requirements (DOE Order 435.1, 2001) which stipulate that operation and closure of the disposal facility will be managed in a manner that is protective of worker and public health and safety, and the environment. The corresponding established procedures to ensure these protections are contained in DOE Manual 435.1-1, Radioactive Waste Management Manual (DOE M 435.1-1 2001). Requirements include assessment of (1) all-exposure pathways, (2) air pathway, (3) radon, and (4) groundwater pathway doses. Doses are computed from radionuclide concentrations in the environment. The performance assessment and composite analysis are being prepared to assess compliance with performance objectives and to establish limits on concentrations and inventories of radionuclides at the facility and to support specification of design, construction, operation and closure requirements. Technical objectives of the PA and CA are primarily accomplished through the development of an establish inventory, and through the use of predictive environmental transport models implementing an overarching conceptual framework. This document reviews the conceptual model, inherent assumptions, and data required to implement the conceptual model in a numerical framework. Available site-specific data and data sources

  19. Model-based feasibility assessment and evaluation of prostate hyperthermia with a commercial MR-guided endorectal HIFU ablation array

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salgaonkar, Vasant A. Hsu, I-C.; Diederich, Chris J.; Prakash, Punit; Rieke, Viola; Ozhinsky, Eugene; Kurhanewicz, John; Plata, Juan

    2014-03-15

    Purpose: Feasibility of targeted and volumetric hyperthermia (40–45 °C) delivery to the prostate with a commercial MR-guided endorectal ultrasound phased array system, designed specifically for thermal ablation and approved for ablation trials (ExAblate 2100, Insightec Ltd.), was assessed through computer simulations and tissue-equivalent phantom experiments with the intention of fast clinical translation for targeted hyperthermia in conjunction with radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Methods: The simulations included a 3D finite element method based biothermal model, and acoustic field calculations for the ExAblate ERUS phased array (2.3 MHz, 2.3 × 4.0 cm{sup 2}, ∼1000 channels) using the rectangular radiator method. Array beamforming strategies were investigated to deliver protracted, continuous-wave hyperthermia to focal prostate cancer targets identified from representative patient cases. Constraints on power densities, sonication durations and switching speeds imposed by ExAblate hardware and software were incorporated in the models. Preliminary experiments included beamformed sonications in tissue mimicking phantoms under MR temperature monitoring at 3 T (GE Discovery MR750W). Results: Acoustic intensities considered during simulation were limited to ensure mild hyperthermia (T{sub max} < 45 °C) and fail-safe operation of the ExAblate array (spatial and time averaged acoustic intensity I{sub SATA} < 3.4 W/cm{sup 2}). Tissue volumes with therapeutic temperature levels (T > 41 °C) were estimated. Numerical simulations indicated that T > 41 °C was calculated in 13–23 cm{sup 3} volumes for sonications with planar or diverging beam patterns at 0.9–1.2 W/cm{sup 2}, in 4.5–5.8 cm{sup 3} volumes for simultaneous multipoint focus beam patterns at ∼0.7 W/cm{sup 2}, and in ∼6.0 cm{sup 3} for curvilinear (cylindrical) beam patterns at 0.75 W/cm{sup 2}. Focused heating patterns may be practical for treating focal disease in a single posterior

  20. Solar Resource Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Renne, D.; George, R.; Wilcox, S.; Stoffel, T.; Myers, D.; Heimiller, D.

    2008-02-01

    This report covers the solar resource assessment aspects of the Renewable Systems Interconnection study. The status of solar resource assessment in the United States is described, and summaries of the availability of modeled data sets are provided.

  1. The watershed-scale optimized and rearranged landscape design (WORLD) model and local biomass processing depots for sustainable biofuel production: Integrated life cycle assessments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eranki, Pragnya L.; Manowitz, David H.; Bals, Bryan D.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kim, Seungdo; Dale, Bruce E.

    2013-07-23

    An array of feedstock is being evaluated as potential raw material for cellulosic biofuel production. Thorough assessments are required in regional landscape settings before these feedstocks can be cultivated and sustainable management practices can be implemented. On the processing side, a potential solution to the logistical challenges of large biorefi neries is provided by a network of distributed processing facilities called local biomass processing depots. A large-scale cellulosic ethanol industry is likely to emerge soon in the United States. We have the opportunity to influence the sustainability of this emerging industry. The watershed-scale optimized and rearranged landscape design (WORLD) model estimates land allocations for different cellulosic feedstocks at biorefinery scale without displacing current animal nutrition requirements. This model also incorporates a network of the aforementioned depots. An integrated life cycle assessment is then conducted over the unified system of optimized feedstock production, processing, and associated transport operations to evaluate net energy yields (NEYs) and environmental impacts.

  2. Progression of performance assessment modeling for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Progression of performance assessment modeling for the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste Rob P. Rechard a,n , Michael L. Wilson b , S. David Sevougian c a Nuclear Waste Disposal Research & Analysis, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0747, USA b Systems Analysis/Operations Research, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185-1138, USA c Applied Systems Analysis & Research, Sandia National Laboratories,

  3. Webinar April 26: Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Overview of HyRAM (Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models) Software for Science-Based Safety, Codes, and Standards" on Tuesday, April 26, from 12 to 1 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. This webinar provides an introduction to the new HyRAM research software developed by Sandia National Laboratories and supported by the Fuel Cell Technologies Office.

  4. Use of international data sets to evaluate and validate pathway assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities. Progress report, August 1993--January 1994

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hendrickson, S.M.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1994-03-01

    This project, ``Use of International Data Sets to Evaluate and Validate Pathway Assessment Models Applicable to Exposure and Dose Reconstruction at DOE Facilities,`` grew out of several activities being conducted by the Principal Investigator Dr. F Owen Hoffman. One activity was originally part of the Chernobyl Studies Project and began as Task 7.1D, ``Internal Dose From Direct Contamination of Terrestrial Food Sources.`` The objective of Task 7.1D was to (1) establish a collaborative US USSR effort to improve and validate our methods of forecasting doses and dose commitments from the direct contamination of food sources, and (2) perform experiments and validation studies to improve our ability to predict rapidly and accurately the long-term internal dose from the contamination of agricultural soil. The latter was to include the consideration of remedial measures to block contamination of food grown on contaminated soil. The current objective of this project is to evaluate and validate pathway-assessment models applicable to exposure and dose reconstruction at DOE facilities through use of international data sets. This project incorporates the activity of Task 7.1D into a multinational effort to evaluate data used for the prediction of radionuclide transfer through agricultural and aquatic systems to humans. It also includes participation in two multinational studies, BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) with the Swedish National Institute for Radiation Protection and VAMP (VAlidation of Model Predictions) with the International Atomic Energy Agency, that address testing the performance of models of radionuclide transport through foodchains.

  5. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

  6. Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, J. R.; Grubesic, T. H.; Sim, L.; Rose, K.; Graham, J.

    2015-08-01

    Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energys National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.

  7. Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, J. R.; Grubesic, T. H.; Sim, L.; Rose, K.; Graham, J.

    2015-08-01

    Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.

  8. Approach for assessing coastal vulnerability to oil spills for prevention and readiness using GIS and the Blowout and Spill Occurrence Model

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, J. R.; Grubesic, T. H.; Sim, L.; Rose, K.; Graham, J.

    2015-08-01

    Increasing interest in offshore hydrocarbon exploration has pushed the operational fronts associated with exploration efforts further offshore into deeper waters and more uncertain subsurface settings. This has become particularly common in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. In this study we develop a spatial vulnerability approach and example assessment to support future spill prevention and improve future response readiness. This effort, which is part of a larger integrated assessment modeling spill prevention effort, incorporated economic and environmental data, and utilized a novel new oil spill simulation model from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the Blowout and Spillmore » Occurrence Model (BLOSOM). Specifically, this study demonstrated a novel approach to evaluate potential impacts of hypothetical spill simulations at varying depths and locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The simulations are analyzed to assess spatial and temporal trends associated with the oil spill. The approach itself demonstrates how these data, tools and techniques can be used to evaluate potential spatial vulnerability of Gulf communities for various spill scenarios. Results of the hypothetical scenarios evaluated in this study suggest that under conditions like those simulated, a strong westward push by ocean currents and tides may increase the impacts of deep water spills along the Texas coastline, amplifying the vulnerability of communities on the local barrier islands. Ultimately, this approach can be used further to assess a range of conditions and scenarios to better understand potential risks and improve informed decision making for operators, responders, and stakeholders to support spill prevention as well as response readiness.« less

  9. Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) : gap analysis for high fidelity and performance assessment code development.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Joon H.; Siegel, Malcolm Dean; Arguello, Jose Guadalupe, Jr.; Webb, Stephen Walter; Dewers, Thomas A.; Mariner, Paul E.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Fuller, Timothy J.; Freeze, Geoffrey A.; Jove-Colon, Carlos F.; Wang, Yifeng

    2011-03-01

    This report describes a gap analysis performed in the process of developing the Waste Integrated Performance and Safety Codes (IPSC) in support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Campaign. The goal of the Waste IPSC is to develop an integrated suite of computational modeling and simulation capabilities to quantitatively assess the long-term performance of waste forms in the engineered and geologic environments of a radioactive waste storage or disposal system. The Waste IPSC will provide this simulation capability (1) for a range of disposal concepts, waste form types, engineered repository designs, and geologic settings, (2) for a range of time scales and distances, (3) with appropriate consideration of the inherent uncertainties, and (4) in accordance with rigorous verification, validation, and software quality requirements. The gap analyses documented in this report were are performed during an initial gap analysis to identify candidate codes and tools to support the development and integration of the Waste IPSC, and during follow-on activities that delved into more detailed assessments of the various codes that were acquired, studied, and tested. The current Waste IPSC strategy is to acquire and integrate the necessary Waste IPSC capabilities wherever feasible, and develop only those capabilities that cannot be acquired or suitably integrated, verified, or validated. The gap analysis indicates that significant capabilities may already exist in the existing THC codes although there is no single code able to fully account for all physical and chemical processes involved in a waste disposal system. Large gaps exist in modeling chemical processes and their couplings with other processes. The coupling of chemical processes with flow transport and mechanical deformation remains challenging. The data for extreme environments (e.g., for elevated temperature and high ionic strength media) that are

  10. A Variable Trajectory Plume Segment Model to Assess Ground-Level Air Concentrations and Depositions of Routine Effluent Releases from Nuclear Power Facilities.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    1986-05-27

    Version: 00 MESODIF-II, which embodies a variable trajectory plume segment atmospheric transport model, is designed to predict normalized air concentrations and deposition of radioactive, but otherwise non-reactive, effluents released from one or two levels over the same position in an xy-plane. In such a model, calculated particle trajectories vary as synoptic scale wind varies. At all sampling times, the particles are connected to form a segmented plume centerline. The lateral and vertical dimensions of themore » plume are determined by a parameterization of turbulence scale diffusion. The impetus for the development of this model arose from the need of the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to assess radiological effects resulting from routine nuclear power reactor operations, as outlined in U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Guide 1.111.« less