National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for analysis price uncertainty

  1. Essays on pricing under uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Escobari Urday, Diego Alfonso

    2008-10-10

    This dissertation analyzes pricing under uncertainty focusing on the U.S. airline industry. It sets to test theories of price dispersion driven by uncertainty in the demand by taking advantage of very detailed information about the dynamics...

  2. Market Prices and Uncertainty Report

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2015-01-01

    Monthly analysis of crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and propane prices is released as a regular supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

  3. Uncertainty analysis of an aviation climate model and an aircraft price model for assessment of environmental effects

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jun, Mina

    2007-01-01

    Estimating, presenting, and assessing uncertainties are important parts in assessment of a complex system. This thesis focuses on the assessment of uncertainty in the price module and the climate module in the Aviation ...

  4. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Uncertainty Analysis Home Stationary Power Nuclear Fuel Cycle Nuclear Energy Safety Technologies Risk and Safety Assessment Uncertainty Analysis Uncertainty AnalysisTara...

  5. Application of price uncertainty quantification models and their impacts on project evaluations 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fariyibi, Festus Lekan

    2006-10-30

    This study presents an analysis of several recently published methods for quantifying the uncertainty in economic evaluations due to uncertainty in future oil prices. Conventional price forecasting methods used in the industry typically...

  6. Pricing Cloud Bandwidth Reservations under Demand Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Baochun

    Pricing Cloud Bandwidth Reservations under Demand Uncertainty Di Niu, Chen Feng, Baochun Li's utility depends not only on its bandwidth usage, but more importantly on the portion of its demand that can be made by all tenants and the cloud provider, even with the presence of demand uncertainty

  7. Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhulai, Sandjai

    uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating expenses (opex) for the project, 3. The number of wells and associated capex to recover the reserves, 4

  8. A REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Duffy, Ken

    A REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY Meimei Zhang. This method often undervalues a mining project since it ignores future price uncertainty and does not allow on metal price. This paper also demonstrates that the "reactive" approach can estimate the mine project

  9. Analysis of Strategies of Companies under Carbon Constraint: Relationship between Profit Structure of Companies and Carbon/Fuel Price Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hashimoto, Susumu

    This paper examines the relationship between future carbon prices and the expected profit of companies by case studies with model companies. As the future carbon price will vary significantly in accordance with the political ...

  10. Developments of the Price equation and natural selection under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Grafen, Alan

    success, following Darwin (1859). Here, this project is pursued by developing the Price equation, ¢rstDevelopments of the Price equation and natural selection under uncertainty Alan Grafen Department to employ these approaches. Here, a new theore- tical development arising from the Price equation provides

  11. Volatile coal prices reflect supply, demand uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ryan, M.

    2004-12-15

    Coal mine owners and investors say that supply and demand are now finally in balance. But coal consumers find that both spot tonnage and new contract coal come at a much higher price.

  12. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Analysis

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservation of Fe(II)GeothermalFuel MagnetizationTransportation EnergyUncertainty Analysis Home

  13. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement .docx

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1

  14. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April 2010

  15. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April 20100 1

  16. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April 20100 1

  17. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April 20100

  18. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April 201000 1

  19. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April 201000 10 1

  20. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April 201000 10

  1. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April 201000 10May

  2. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April 201000

  3. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April

  4. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April0 1 September

  5. Pricing Cloud Bandwidth Reservations under Demand Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Li, Baochun

    Heap Assumptions on Demand Andreas Podelski1 , Andrey Rybalchenko2 , and Thomas Wies1 1 University analysis produces heap assumptions on demand to eliminate counterexamples, i.e., non-terminating abstract of a non-terminating abstract computation, i.e., it applies shape analysis on demand. The shape analysis

  6. Uncertainty and calibration analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-03-01

    All measurements contain some deviation from the true value which is being measured. In the common vernacular this deviation between the true value and the measured value is called an inaccuracy, an error, or a mistake. Since all measurements contain errors, it is necessary to accept that there is a limit to how accurate a measurement can be. The undertainty interval combined with the confidence level, is one measure of the accuracy for a measurement or value. Without a statement of uncertainty (or a similar parameter) it is not possible to evaluate if the accuracy of the measurement, or data, is appropriate. The preparation of technical reports, calibration evaluations, and design calculations should consider the accuracy of measurements and data being used. There are many methods to accomplish this. This report provides a consistent method for the handling of measurement tolerances, calibration evaluations and uncertainty calculations. The SRS Quality Assurance (QA) Program requires that the uncertainty of technical data and instrument calibrations be acknowledged and estimated. The QA Program makes some specific technical requirements related to the subject but does not provide a philosophy or method on how uncertainty should be estimated. This report was prepared to provide a technical basis to support the calculation of uncertainties and the calibration of measurement and test equipment for any activity within the Experimental Thermal-Hydraulics (ETH) Group. The methods proposed in this report provide a graded approach for estimating the uncertainty of measurements, data, and calibrations. The method is based on the national consensus standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1.

  7. Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, K. Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these are theprices are driven by oil prices, moreover, and oil isby ‡uctuations in the crude oil price. The overall mean real

  8. Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, K. Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    global gasoline and diesel price and income elasticities.shift in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand.Habits and Uncertain Relative Prices: Simulating Petrol Con-

  9. Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, K. Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    shock), it is the world crude oil price that must change insuggesting that the crude oil price might be somewhatper capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these are

  10. ENHANCED UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR SRS COMPOSITE ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, F.; Phifer, M.

    2011-06-30

    The Composite Analysis (CA) performed for the Savannah River Site (SRS) in 2009 (SRS CA 2009) included a simplified uncertainty analysis. The uncertainty analysis in the CA (Smith et al. 2009b) was limited to considering at most five sources in a separate uncertainty calculation performed for each POA. To perform the uncertainty calculations in a reasonable amount of time, the analysis was limited to using 400 realizations, 2,000 years of simulated transport time, and the time steps used for the uncertainty analysis were increased from what was used in the CA base case analysis. As part of the CA maintenance plan, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) committed to improving the CA uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. The previous uncertainty analysis was constrained by the standard GoldSim licensing which limits the user to running at most four Monte Carlo uncertainty calculations (also called realizations) simultaneously. Some of the limitations on the number of realizations that could be practically run and the simulation time steps were removed by building a cluster of three HP Proliant windows servers with a total of 36 64-bit processors and by licensing the GoldSim DP-Plus distributed processing software. This allowed running as many as 35 realizations simultaneously (one processor is reserved as a master process that controls running the realizations). These enhancements to SRNL computing capabilities made uncertainty analysis: using 1000 realizations, using the time steps employed in the base case CA calculations, with more sources, and simulating radionuclide transport for 10,000 years feasible. In addition, an importance screening analysis was performed to identify the class of stochastic variables that have the most significant impact on model uncertainty. This analysis ran the uncertainty model separately testing the response to variations in the following five sets of model parameters: (a) K{sub d} values (72 parameters for the 36 CA elements in sand and clay), (b) Dose Parameters (34 parameters), (c) Material Properties (20 parameters), (d) Surface Water Flows (6 parameters), and (e) Vadose and Aquifer Flow (4 parameters). Results provided an assessment of which group of parameters is most significant in the dose uncertainty. It was found that K{sub d} and the vadose/aquifer flow parameters, both of which impact transport timing, had the greatest impact on dose uncertainty. Dose parameters had an intermediate level of impact while material properties and surface water flows had little impact on dose uncertainty. Results of the importance analysis are discussed further in Section 7 of this report. The objectives of this work were to address comments received during the CA review on the uncertainty analysis and to demonstrate an improved methodology for CA uncertainty calculations as part of CA maintenance. This report partially addresses the LFRG Review Team issue of producing an enhanced CA sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. This is described in Table 1-1 which provides specific responses to pertinent CA maintenance items extracted from Section 11 of the SRS CA (2009). As noted above, the original uncertainty analysis looked at each POA separately and only included the effects from at most five sources giving the highest peak doses at each POA. Only 17 of the 152 CA sources were used in the original uncertainty analysis and the simulation time was reduced from 10,000 to 2,000 years. A major constraint on the original uncertainty analysis was the limitation of only being able to use at most four distributed processes. This work expanded the analysis to 10,000 years using 39 of the CA sources, included cumulative dose effects at downstream POAs, with more realizations (1,000) and finer time steps. This was accomplished by using the GoldSim DP-Plus module and the 36 processors available on a new windows cluster. The last part of the work looked at the contribution to overall uncertainty from the main categories of uncertainty variables: K{sub d}s, dose parameters, flow parameters, and material propertie

  11. Reservation Price Estimation by Adaptive Conjoint Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schmidt-Thieme, Lars

    Reservation Price Estimation by Adaptive Conjoint Analysis Christoph Breidert1 , Michael Hahsler1 applied the eco- nomic definition of reservation price in combination with a conjoint study on product pricing. In this paper we present a novel approach to estimate the economic reser- vation price using

  12. Effects of the Uncertainty about Global Economic Recovery on Energy Transition and CO2 Price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

    This paper examines the impact that uncertainty over economic growth may have on global energy transition and CO2 prices. We use a general-equilibrium model derived from MERGE, and define several stochastic scenarios for ...

  13. Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, K. Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    Sterner. 1991. Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: A2011. Measuring global gasoline and diesel price and incomeMutairi. 1995. Demand for gasoline in Kuwait: An empirical

  14. EFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY ROBUST DESIGN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Wei

    EFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR MULTIDISCIPLINARY ROBUST DESIGN Xiaoping Du* and Wei robust design procedure that utilizes efficient methods for uncertainty analysis is developed. Different techniques used for uncertainty analysis will significantly reduce the amount of design evaluations

  15. Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy and its Applications Ming Ye...

  16. Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights1 M E R OU.S.29 Energy

  17. Microsoft Word - feb10-Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry NaturalPrices1Markets See(STEO) Highlights11 1April03,1,February

  18. Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

    2014-04-01

    Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

  19. Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, K. Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model.analysis of the demand for oil in the Middle East. EnergyEstimates elasticity of demand for crude oil, not gasoline.

  20. Bayesian Environmetrics: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Draper, David

    problems 1 #12;Outline Two case studies, both involving risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal methods has better repeated-sampling properties than maximum likelihood. -- Several (standard) fluid dynamics: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis and inverse problems 2 #12;Case Study 1: GESAMAC Nuclear fission

  1. Extended Forward Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haihua Zhao; Vincent A. Mousseau

    2011-09-01

    Verification and validation (V&V) are playing more important roles to quantify uncertainties and realize high fidelity simulations in engineering system analyses, such as transients happened in a complex nuclear reactor system. Traditional V&V in the reactor system analysis focused more on the validation part or did not differentiate verification and validation. The traditional approach to uncertainty quantification is based on a 'black box' approach. The simulation tool is treated as an unknown signal generator, a distribution of inputs according to assumed probability density functions is sent in and the distribution of the outputs is measured and correlated back to the original input distribution. The 'black box' method mixes numerical errors with all other uncertainties. It is also not efficient to perform sensitivity analysis. Contrary to the 'black box' method, a more efficient sensitivity approach can take advantage of intimate knowledge of the simulation code. In these types of approaches equations for the propagation of uncertainty are constructed and the sensitivities are directly solved for as variables in the simulation. This paper presents the forward sensitivity analysis as a method to help uncertainty qualification. By including time step and potentially spatial step as special sensitivity parameters, the forward sensitivity method is extended as one method to quantify numerical errors. Note that by integrating local truncation errors over the whole system through the forward sensitivity analysis process, the generated time step and spatial step sensitivity information reflect global numerical errors. The discretization errors can be systematically compared against uncertainties due to other physical parameters. This extension makes the forward sensitivity method a much more powerful tool to help uncertainty qualification. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time and space steps with other interested physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time and space steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time and space steps forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step and grid convergence study with much less computational cost. Several well defined benchmark problems with manufactured solutions are utilized to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis method. All the physical solutions, parameter sensitivity solutions, even the time step sensitivity in one case, have analytical forms, which allows the verification to be performed in the strictest sense.

  2. Assessing the Role of Operating, Passenger, and Infrastructure Costs in Fleet Planning under Fuel Price Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smirti, Megan; Hansen, Mark

    2009-01-01

    the at summer 2008 fuel prices, regional jets have a higherstage lengths and fuel prices, passenger preferences for jetabsence of a fuel price increase, because smaller jets would

  3. Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

    2008-08-01

    Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.

  4. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  5. Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, K. Rebecca

    2011-01-01

    shift in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand.A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand.2007. Consumer demand un- der price uncertainty: Empirical

  6. Application Form Certificate Program in Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Van Veen, Barry D.

    Application Form Certificate Program in Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis College _____________ Proposed Substitution _______________________________ _____________ Methods for Probabilistic Risk Analysis (3 credits): Industrial and Systems Engineering 574 Methods for Probabilistic Risk Analysis

  7. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    First, it recovers historical oil price uncertainty seriesmore reliable historical oil price uncertainty series as itAs a result, the historical oil price uncertainty series is

  8. Analysis of S-Circuit Uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ahmed, Taahir

    2011-08-08

    The theory of sensori-computational circuits provides a capable framework for the description and optimization of robotic systems, including on-line optimizations. This theory, however, is inadequate in that it does not account for uncertainty in a...

  9. Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

  10. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  11. Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated Response to Dynamic Pricing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mathieu, Johanna L.; Callaway, Duncan S.; Kiliccote, Sila

    2011-08-15

    Controlling electric loads to deliver power system services presents a number of interesting challenges. For example, changes in electricity consumption of Commercial and Industrial (C&I) facilities are usually estimated using counterfactual baseline models, and model uncertainty makes it difficult to precisely quantify control responsiveness. Moreover, C&I facilities exhibit variability in their response. This paper seeks to understand baseline model error and demand-side variability in responses to open-loop control signals (i.e. dynamic prices). Using a regression-based baseline model, we define several Demand Response (DR) parameters, which characterize changes in electricity use on DR days, and then present a method for computing the error associated with DR parameter estimates. In addition to analyzing the magnitude of DR parameter error, we develop a metric to determine how much observed DR parameter variability is attributable to real event-to-event variability versus simply baseline model error. Using data from 38 C&I facilities that participated in an automated DR program in California, we find that DR parameter errors are large. For most facilities, observed DR parameter variability is likely explained by baseline model error, not real DR parameter variability; however, a number of facilities exhibit real DR parameter variability. In some cases, the aggregate population of C&I facilities exhibits real DR parameter variability, resulting in implications for the system operator with respect to both resource planning and system stability.

  12. Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hall, Sharon J.

    Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis Skepticism about climate change for other countries. · Skepticism and uncertainty are related but different aspects of climate change perceptions. In the literature, skepticism often relates to whether people believe climate change is happening

  13. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for long-running computer codes : a critical review

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Langewisch, Dustin R

    2010-01-01

    This thesis presents a critical review of existing methods for performing probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for complex, computationally expensive simulation models. Uncertainty analysis (UA) methods ...

  14. Actuarial Analysis 101: Profitably Pricing a Healthplan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    John Koelling

    Profitably Pricing a Healthplan. September 10, 2004. John Koelling, A.S.A, M.A.A.A.. CIGNA Corporation. General Healthcare Financial Cycle. Sales and.

  15. Analysis of the effect of packing capacity on pork prices 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Spivey, Sarah Elizabeth

    2013-02-22

    In 1998, pork prices fell to an all time low. Across the industry, concern was expressed for research as to what led to this price crash. Capacity constraints at the packer level have been a key area of concern. This study is an analysis...

  16. System architecture analysis and selection under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Smaling, Rudolf M

    2005-01-01

    A system architecture analysis and selection methodology is presented that builds on the Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization framework. It addresses a need and opportunity to extend the MAO techniques to include a ...

  17. Uncertainty Analysis of a Heavily Instrumented

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Xiaorui "Ray"

    in three areas Envelope Equipment System/building integration Develop component technologies that are more role in understanding the behavior of building envelopes · Parametric analysis determinants ­ DOE 2 ­ Building envelope's thermal conductivity properties · 156 parameters · Markov order sampling ­ Sensitivity

  18. Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coppejans, Mark; Gilleskie, Donna; Sieg, Holger; Strumpf, Koleman

    2007-08-01

    We develop a demand model for goods that are subject to habit formation. We show that consumption plans of forward-looking individuals depend on preferences, current period prices, and individual beliefs about the evolution ...

  19. Essays on Price Dynamics, Welfare Analysis, Household Food Insecurity in Mexico 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Magana Lemus, David

    2013-09-20

    Higher and more volatile food prices, as reported in recent years, have consequences on household welfare and potentially on public policy. Analysis of agricultural commodities price dynamics, welfare ...

  20. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk

    2013-12-01

    We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

  1. A Framework for Analysis of the Uncertainty of Socioeconomic Growth

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    A Framework for Analysis of the Uncertainty of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change on the Risk of Technology 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E19-411 Cambridge, MA 02139 (USA) Location: Building E19, Room 411 400 Growth and Climate Change on the Risk of Water Stress: a Case Study in Asia Charles Fant* , C. Adam

  2. Observability and Estimation Uncertainty Analysis for PMU Placement Alternatives

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pollefeys, Marc

    Observability and Estimation Uncertainty Analysis for PMU Placement Alternatives Jinghe Zhang unit (PMU), developed in the 1980s, is considered to be one of the most important devices in the future of power systems. While PMU measurements currently cover fewer than 1% of the nodes in the U.S. power grid

  3. Tariff-based analysis of commercial building electricity prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coughlin, Katie M.; Bolduc, Chris A.; Rosenquist, Greg J.; Van Buskirk, Robert D.; McMahon, James E.

    2008-01-01

    4.2 E?ective Marginal Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Demand Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Calculation of Electricity Prices 4.1 Average

  4. Tariff-based analysis of commercial building electricity prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coughlin, Katie M.; Bolduc, Chris A.; Rosenquist, Greg J.; Van Buskirk, Robert D.; McMahon, James E.

    2008-01-01

    Energy and Demand Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .US DOE 1999. Marginal Energy Prices Report U.S. Departmentmarginal price Marginal energy price in cper kwh Marginal

  5. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  6. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  7. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.; Harrison, J.D.; Harper, F.T.; Hora, S.C.

    1998-04-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  8. Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1998 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...

  9. Prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2001 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...

  10. Prices

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1999 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...

  11. Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2002 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...

  12. Bayes Linear Uncertainty Analysis for Oil Reservoirs Based on Multiscale Computer Experiments

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oakley, Jeremy

    of the input parameters for a reservoir model. Therefore, an uncertainty analysis for the model often proceedsBayes Linear Uncertainty Analysis for Oil Reservoirs Based on Multiscale Computer Experiments for the efficient management of the reservoir. In a Bayesian analysis, all of our uncertainties are incorporated

  13. Reservoir Simulation and Uncertainty Analysis of Enhanced CBM Production Using Artificial Neural Networks

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    -cellular model (reservoir parameters), uncertainty analysis becomes an important task that is required for makingSPE 125959 Reservoir Simulation and Uncertainty Analysis of Enhanced CBM Production Using the foundation of any reservoir simulation), comprehensive analysis and uncertainty quantification of ECBM and CO

  14. ResGrid: A Grid-Aware Toolkit for Reservoir Uncertainty Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allen, Gabrielle

    Anisotropical Ratio (SGSIM) Reservoir Uncertainty Analysis · Responses to factors are obtained by modelsResGrid: A Grid-Aware Toolkit for Reservoir Uncertainty Analysis Z. Lei, D. Huang, A. Kulshrestha & performance prediction ­ Sensitivity analysis & uncertainty assessment ­ History matching (model verification

  15. Fuse Control for Demand Side Management: A Stochastic Pricing Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oren, Shmuel S.

    a service contract for load curtailment. Index Terms--Demand side management, aggregated demand response Reliability Technology Solutions (CERTS) for the project Business Model for Retail Aggregation of ResponsiveFuse Control for Demand Side Management: A Stochastic Pricing Analysis Journal: IEEE Transactions

  16. ANALYSIS OF FUTURE PRICES AND MARKETS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    1 ANALYSIS OF FUTURE PRICES AND MARKETS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS BY JOSEPH MULHOLLAND temperature superconductors (HTS) may impact the national electrical system over the next 25 years dollars. However, the savings from superconductivity are offset somewhat by the high cost of manufacturing

  17. Tariff-based analysis of commercial building electricity prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coughlin, Katie M.; Bolduc, Chris A.; Rosenquist, Greg J.; Van Buskirk, Robert D.; McMahon, James E.

    2008-01-01

    4 Calculation of Electricity Prices 4.1 Averageaverage seasonal and annual electricity prices by region inbased annual average electricity price vs. annual energy

  18. Analysis of Competitive Electricity Markets under a New Model of Real-Time Retail Pricing with

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bhatia, Sangeeta

    Analysis of Competitive Electricity Markets under a New Model of Real-Time Retail Pricing with Ex@tum.de Abstract--In this paper, we propose a new real-time retail pricing model characterized by ex and robustness properties than pure exant´e pricing. Index Terms--Real-Time Pricing, Market Stability, Economic

  19. Analysis of Competitive Electricity Markets under a New Model of Real-Time Retail Pricing with

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hirche, Sandra

    Analysis of Competitive Electricity Markets under a New Model of Real-Time Retail Pricing with Ex loop system. Under this pricing mechanism, electricity is priced at the exant´e price (calculated based, dahleh, mitter}@mit.edu Siemens Corporate Technology, Munich, Germany dragan

  20. Learning Curve: Analysis of an Agent Pricing Strategy Under Varying Conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    in employing these real-time agents is understanding the costs and benefits to different agent pricingLearning Curve: Analysis of an Agent Pricing Strategy Under Varying Conditions Joan Morris, Pattie@cs.brown.edu Abstract - By employing dynamic pricing, the act of changing prices over time within a marketplace, sellers

  1. Price analysis in electronic marketing of Texas feeder cattle 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mahoney, Kathleen Ann

    1981-01-01

    ANALYSIS IN ELECTRONIC MARKETING OF TEXAS FEEDER CATTLE A Thesis by KATHLEEN ANN MAHONEY Approved as to style and content by: Chairman of Co ttee) ead of De rtment (Me r) ( r) December 1981 1. 11 Price Analysis in Electronic Marketing of Texas... Feeder Cattle (December 1981) Kathleen Mahoney, B. S. , Western Illinois University The feeder cattle marketing segment is characterized by many small, independent producers. Over time the industry has moved away from large central markets. It can...

  2. Analysis of Federal Subsidies: Implied Price of Carbon

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    D. Craig Cooper; Thomas Foulke

    2010-10-01

    For informed climate change policy, it is important for decision makers to be able to assess how the costs and benefits of federal energy subsidies are distributed and to be able to have some measure to compare them. One way to do this is to evaluate the implied price of carbon (IPC) for a federal subsidy, or set of subsidies; where the IPC is the cost of the subsidy to the U.S. Treasury divided by the emissions reductions it generated. Subsidies with lower IPC are more cost effective at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while subsidies with a negative IPC act to increase emissions. While simple in concept, the IPC is difficult to calculate in practice. Calculation of the IPC requires knowledge of (i) the amount of energy associated with the subsidy, (ii) the amount and type of energy that would have been produced in the absence of the subsidy, and (iii) the greenhouse gas emissions associated with both the subsidized energy and the potential replacement energy. These pieces of information are not consistently available for federal subsidies, and there is considerable uncertainty in cases where the information is available. Thus, exact values for the IPC based upon fully consistent standards cannot be calculated with available data. However, it is possible to estimate a range of potential values sufficient for initial comparisons. This study has employed a range of methods to generate “first order” estimates for the IPC of a range of federal subsidies using static methods that do not account for the dynamics of supply and demand. The study demonstrates that, while the IPC value depends upon how the inquiry is framed and the IPC cannot be calculated in a “one size fits all” manner, IPC calculations can provide a valuable perspective for climate policy analysis. IPC values are most useful when calculated within the perspective of a case study, with the method and parameters of the calculation determined by the case. The IPC of different policy measures can then be quantitatively evaluated within the case. Results can be qualitatively compared across cases, so long as such comparisons are considered to be preliminary and treated with the appropriate level of caution.

  3. Analysis and Reduction of Power Grid Models under Uncertainty Sandia National Laboratories

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Levi, Anthony F. J.

    1.30pm Analysis and Reduction of Power Grid Models under Uncertainty Habib Najm Sandia National Laboratories Abstract The increased utilization of alternative energy sources requires that evolving power grid Uncertainty Eigenproblem Closure Analysis and Reduction of Power Grid Models under Uncertainty H.N. Najm

  4. RIVERWARE'S INTEGRATED MODELING AND ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR LONG-TERM PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    RIVERWARE'S INTEGRATED MODELING AND ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR LONG- TERM PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY and reservoir operations under hydrologic uncertainty benefits from modeling capabilities that include 1-objective river and reservoir modeling tool that can represent various planning alternatives and easily run

  5. A statistical analysis of the natural gas futures market : the interplay of sentiment, volatility and prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fazzio, Thomas J. (Thomas Joseph)

    2010-01-01

    This paper attempts to understand the price dynamics of the North American natural gas market through a statistical survey that includes an analysis of the variables influencing the price and volatility of this energy ...

  6. Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.

    To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...

  7. Uncertainty in atmospheric CO? predictions from a parametric uncertainty analysis of a global carbon cycle model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Holian, Gary L.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Prinn, Ronald G.

    Key uncertainties in the global carbon cycle are explored with a 2-D model for the oceanic carbon sink. By calibrating the key parameters of this ocean carbon sink model to widely referenced values, it produces an average ...

  8. Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: AlternativeMonthly","10/2015"Monthly","10/2015" ,"Release7Cubicthroughthe PriceThousand CubicThousandCubic53.6 53.3 49.368.7

  9. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, J.; Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  10. A New Cauchy-Based Black-Box Technique for Uncertainty in Risk Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    A New Cauchy-Based Black-Box Technique for Uncertainty in Risk Analysis V. Kreinovich a,, S information in risk analysis. Several such techniques have been presented, often on a heuristic basis. Key words: Uncertainty, Risk analysis, Monte-Carlo, black-box techniques PACS: 02.70.Tt, 02.70.Uu, 02

  11. A New CauchyBased BlackBox Technique for Uncertainty in Risk Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    A New Cauchy­Based Black­Box Technique for Uncertainty in Risk Analysis V. Kreinovich a;\\Lambda , S information in risk analysis. Several such techniques have been presented, often on a heuristic basis. Key words: Uncertainty, Risk analysis, Monte­Carlo, black­box techniques PACS: 02.70.Tt, 02.70.Uu, 02

  12. Fukushima Daiichi unit 1 uncertainty analysis--Preliminary selection of uncertain parameters and analysis methodology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Kalinich, Donald A.

    2014-02-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) plans to conduct uncertainty analyses (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) plant with the MELCOR code. The model to be used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). However, that study only examined a handful of various model inputs and boundary conditions, and the predictions yielded only fair agreement with plant data and current release estimates. The goal of this uncertainty study is to perform a focused evaluation of uncertainty in core melt progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, vessel lower head failure, etc.). In preparation for the SNL Fukushima UA work, a scoping study has been completed to identify important core melt progression parameters for the uncertainty analysis. The study also lays out a preliminary UA methodology.

  13. OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING COUNTRIES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boyer, Edmond

    OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu hal-00822070,version1-14May2013 #12;1 Oil price impact Khaled Guesmi3 Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price

  14. Animation and Visualization of Spot Prices via Quadratized Power Flow Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Animation and Visualization of Spot Prices via Quadratized Power Flow Analysis A. P. Sakis@attbi.com Abstract This paper presents a new model for efficient calculation of spot prices and animation and visualization of spot price evolution as the system operating point is changing. The computational method

  15. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    historical uncertainty series by incorporating a realized volatility series from daily oil price data

  16. Uncertainty Analysis for Broadband Solar Radiometric Instrumentation Calibrations and Measurements: An Update; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Myers, D. R.; Reda, I. M.; Wilcox, S. M.; Stoffel, T. L.

    2004-04-01

    The measurement of broadband solar radiation has grown in importance since the advent of solar renewable energy technologies in the 1970's, and the concern about the Earth's radiation balance related to climate change in the 1990's. In parallel, standardized methods of uncertainty analysis and reporting have been developed. Historical and updated uncertainties are based on the current international standardized uncertainty analysis method. Despite the fact that new and sometimes overlooked sources of uncertainty have been identified over the period 1988 to 2004, uncertainty in broadband solar radiometric instrumentation remains at 3% to 5% for pyranometers, and 2% to 3% for pyrheliometers. Improvements in characterizing correction functions for radiometer data may reduce total uncertainty. We analyze the theoretical standardized uncertainty sensitivity coefficients for the instrumentation calibration measurement equation and highlight the single parameter (thermal offset voltages), which contributes the most to the observed calibration responsivities.

  17. CASMO5/TSUNAMI-3D spent nuclear fuel reactivity uncertainty analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferrer, R.; Rhodes, J. [Studsvik Scandpower, Inc., 504 Shoup Ave., Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States); Smith, K. [Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The CASMO5 lattice physics code is used in conjunction with the TSUNAMI-3D sequence in ORNL's SCALE 6 code system to estimate the uncertainties in hot-to-cold reactivity changes due to cross-section uncertainty for PWR assemblies at various burnup points. The goal of the analysis is to establish the multiplication factor uncertainty similarity between various fuel assemblies at different conditions in a quantifiable manner and to obtain a bound on the hot-to-cold reactivity uncertainty over the various assembly types and burnup attributed to fundamental cross-section data uncertainty. (authors)

  18. An Analysis of Residential PV System Price Differences Between the United States and Germany

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seel, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    A levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) analysis based on thePV system prices could reduce LCoE assumptions: 25-year life

  19. Determination of uncertainty in reserves estimate from analysis of production decline data 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Yuhong

    2007-09-17

    Analysts increasingly have used probabilistic approaches to evaluate the uncertainty in reserves estimates based on a decline curve analysis. This is because the results represent statistical analysis of historical data ...

  20. Principles and applications of measurement and uncertainty analysis in research and calibration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.V.

    1992-11-01

    Interest in Measurement Uncertainty Analysis has grown in the past several years as it has spread to new fields of application, and research and development of uncertainty methodologies have continued. This paper discusses the subject from the perspectives of both research and calibration environments. It presents a history of the development and an overview of the principles of uncertainty analysis embodied in the United States National Standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1-1985, Measurement Uncertainty. Examples are presented in which uncertainty analysis was utilized or is needed to gain further knowledge of a particular measurement process and to characterize final results. Measurement uncertainty analysis provides a quantitative estimate of the interval about a measured value or an experiment result within which the true value of that quantity is expected to lie. Years ago, Harry Ku of the United States National Bureau of Standards stated that The informational content of the statement of uncertainty determines, to a large extent, the worth of the calibrated value.'' Today, that statement is just as true about calibration or research results as it was in 1968. Why is that true What kind of information should we include in a statement of uncertainty accompanying a calibrated value How and where do we get the information to include in an uncertainty statement How should we interpret and use measurement uncertainty information This discussion will provide answers to these and other questions about uncertainty in research and in calibration. The methodology to be described has been developed by national and international groups over the past nearly thirty years, and individuals were publishing information even earlier. Yet the work is largely unknown in many science and engineering arenas. I will illustrate various aspects of uncertainty analysis with some examples drawn from the radiometry measurement and calibration discipline from research activities.

  1. Principles and applications of measurement and uncertainty analysis in research and calibration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wells, C.V.

    1992-11-01

    Interest in Measurement Uncertainty Analysis has grown in the past several years as it has spread to new fields of application, and research and development of uncertainty methodologies have continued. This paper discusses the subject from the perspectives of both research and calibration environments. It presents a history of the development and an overview of the principles of uncertainty analysis embodied in the United States National Standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1-1985, Measurement Uncertainty. Examples are presented in which uncertainty analysis was utilized or is needed to gain further knowledge of a particular measurement process and to characterize final results. Measurement uncertainty analysis provides a quantitative estimate of the interval about a measured value or an experiment result within which the true value of that quantity is expected to lie. Years ago, Harry Ku of the United States National Bureau of Standards stated that ``The informational content of the statement of uncertainty determines, to a large extent, the worth of the calibrated value.`` Today, that statement is just as true about calibration or research results as it was in 1968. Why is that true? What kind of information should we include in a statement of uncertainty accompanying a calibrated value? How and where do we get the information to include in an uncertainty statement? How should we interpret and use measurement uncertainty information? This discussion will provide answers to these and other questions about uncertainty in research and in calibration. The methodology to be described has been developed by national and international groups over the past nearly thirty years, and individuals were publishing information even earlier. Yet the work is largely unknown in many science and engineering arenas. I will illustrate various aspects of uncertainty analysis with some examples drawn from the radiometry measurement and calibration discipline from research activities.

  2. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

  3. Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-

    2005-01-01

    (cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...

  4. Thorough approach to measurement uncertainty analysis applied to immersed heat exchanger testing

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Farrington, R.B.; Wells, C.V.

    1986-04-01

    This paper discusses the value of an uncertainty analysis, discusses how to determine measurement uncertainty, and then details the sources of error in instrument calibration, data acquisition, and data reduction for a particular experiment. Methods are discussed to determine both the systematic (or bias) error in an experiment as well as to determine the random (or precision) error in the experiment. The detailed analysis is applied to two sets of conditions in measuring the effectiveness of an immersed coil heat exchanger. It shows the value of such analysis as well as an approach to reduce overall measurement uncertainty and to improve the experiment. This paper outlines how to perform an uncertainty analysis and then provides a detailed example of how to apply the methods discussed in the paper. The authors hope this paper will encourage researchers and others to become more concerned with their measurement processes and to report measurement uncertainty with all of their test results.

  5. Continuous time analysis of fleeting discrete price moves Neil Shephard

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wolfe, Patrick J.

    ) a high proportion of price changes are reversed in a fraction of a second. Our model is analytically`adl`ag price process is a piecewise constant semimartingale with finite activity, finite variation change in continuous time; (iii) a high proportion of price changes are fleeting, reversed in a fraction

  6. Uncertainty Analysis of RELAP5-3D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Alexandra E Gertman; Dr. George L Mesina

    2012-07-01

    As world-wide energy consumption continues to increase, so does the demand for the use of alternative energy sources, such as Nuclear Energy. Nuclear Power Plants currently supply over 370 gigawatts of electricity, and more than 60 new nuclear reactors have been commissioned by 15 different countries. The primary concern for Nuclear Power Plant operation and lisencing has been safety. The safety of the operation of Nuclear Power Plants is no simple matter- it involves the training of operators, design of the reactor, as well as equipment and design upgrades throughout the lifetime of the reactor, etc. To safely design, operate, and understand nuclear power plants, industry and government alike have relied upon the use of best-estimate simulation codes, which allow for an accurate model of any given plant to be created with well-defined margins of safety. The most widely used of these best-estimate simulation codes in the Nuclear Power industry is RELAP5-3D. Our project focused on improving the modeling capabilities of RELAP5-3D by developing uncertainty estimates for its calculations. This work involved analyzing high, medium, and low ranked phenomena from an INL PIRT on a small break Loss-Of-Coolant Accident as wall as an analysis of a large break Loss-Of- Coolant Accident. Statistical analyses were performed using correlation coefficients. To perform the studies, computer programs were written that modify a template RELAP5 input deck to produce one deck for each combination of key input parameters. Python scripting enabled the running of the generated input files with RELAP5-3D on INL’s massively parallel cluster system. Data from the studies was collected and analyzed with SAS. A summary of the results of our studies are presented.

  7. Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric J. PhD.; Storlie, Curt B.

    2006-06-01

    Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.

  8. Electricity prices in a competitive environment: Marginal cost pricing of generation services and financial status of electric utilities. A preliminary analysis through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-08-01

    The emergence of competitive markets for electricity generation services is changing the way that electricity is and will be priced in the United States. This report presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated {open_quotes}cost-of-service{close_quotes} pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers? This study is not intended to be a cost-benefit analysis of wholesale or retail competition, nor does this report include an analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of competitive electricity prices.

  9. SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Convergence of the Uncertainty Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bixler, Nathan E.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Mattie, Patrick D.; Ghosh, S. Tina

    2014-02-01

    This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a ‘high’ source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of “zero” results).

  10. Stochastic Formulation for Uncertainty Analysis of Two-Phase Flow in

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Dongxiao

    Stochastic Formulation for Uncertainty Analysis of Two-Phase Flow in Heterogeneous Reservoirs in flow performance predictions due to uncertainty in the reservoir description. We solve moment equations. Accurate modeling of the physics that govern complex multi- phase reservoir flows requires a detailed

  11. 1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5: Uncertainty/Error Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kostic, Milivoje M.

    1 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5: Uncertainty/Error Analysis · Introduction · Bias and Precision Summation/Propagation (Expanded Combined Uncertainty) · Problem 5-30 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5) at corresponding Probability (%P) Remember: u = d%P = t,%PS (@ %P); z=t=d/S #12;2 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Bias

  12. An Analysis of Residential PV System Price Differences between...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    PV System Price Differences between the United States and Germany Residential photovoltaic (PV) systems were twice as expensive in the United States as in Germany (median of...

  13. Coupled differential and integral data analysis for improved uncertainty quantification of the ?³,??Cu cross section evaluations

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sobes, Vladimir

    2014-01-01

    A new methodology has been developed that couples differential cross section data evaluation with integral benchmark analysis for improved uncertainty quantification. The new methodology was applied to the two new copper ...

  14. Bayesian Neural Networks for Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrologic Modeling: A Comparison of Two Schemes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Zhao, Kaiguang

    2012-06-01

    Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been shown as useful tools to analyze modeling uncertainty of Neural Networks (NNs). This research focuses on the comparison of two BNNs. The first BNNs (BNN-I) use statistical methods to describe the characteristics of different uncertainty sources (input, parameter, and model structure) and integrate these uncertainties into a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework to estimate total uncertainty. The second BNNs (BNN-II) lump all uncertainties into a single error term (i.e. the residual between model prediction and measurement). In this study, we propose a simple BNN-II, which use Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate Neural Networks with different structures (number of hidden units) and combine the predictions from different NNs to derive predictions and uncertainty analysis. We tested these two BNNs in two watersheds for daily and monthly hydrologic simulation. The BMA based BNNs developed in this study outperforms BNN-I in the two watersheds in terms of both accurate prediction and uncertainty estimation. These results show that, given incomplete understanding of the characteristics associated with each uncertainty source, the simple lumped error approach may yield better prediction and uncertainty estimation.

  15. Price regulation for waste hauling franchises in California: an examination of how regulators regulate pricing and the effects of competition on regulated markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seltzer, Steven A.

    2011-01-01

    Thomadakis, Stavros. “Price Regulation Under Uncertainty in698. Bös, Dieter. Pricing and Price Regulation. Elsevier.Optimal Structure of Public Prices. ” The American Economic

  16. Carbon Permit Prices in the European Emissions Trading System: A Stochastic Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carbon Permit Prices in the European Emissions Trading System: A Stochastic Analysis By Wee Chiang, Technology and Policy Program 1 #12;Carbon Permit Prices in the European Emissions Trading System Abstract The Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is a cornerstone for European efforts to reduce greenhouse gas

  17. Uncertainty in Risk Analysis: Towards a General SecondOrder Approach Combining Interval,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    Uncertainty in Risk Analysis: Towards a General Second­Order Approach Combining Interval important in risk analysis. A natural way to describe this uncer­ tainty is to describe a set of possible methods of handling such partial information in risk analysis. Several such techniques have been presented

  18. PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Seitz, R

    2008-06-25

    Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

  19. The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis: Phase I Status and Initial Results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gerhard Strydom; Friederike Bostelmann; Kostadin Ivanov

    2014-10-01

    The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of HTGR design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. One way to address the uncertainties in the HTGR analysis tools are to assess the sensitivity of critical parameters (such as the calculated maximum fuel temperature during loss of coolant accidents) to a few important input uncertainties. The input parameters were identified by engineering judgement in the past but are today typically based on a Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRT) process. The input parameters can also be derived from sensitivity studies and are then varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, there is often no easy way to compensate for these uncertainties. In engineering system design, a common approach for addressing performance uncertainties is to add compensating margins to the system, but with passive properties credited it is not so clear how to apply it in the case of modular HTGR heat removal path. Other more sophisticated uncertainty modelling approaches, including Monte Carlo analysis, have also been proposed and applied. Ideally one wishes to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Therefore some safety analysis calculations may use a mixture of these approaches for different parameters depending upon the particular requirements of the analysis problem involved. Sensitivity analysis can for example be used to provide information as part of an uncertainty analysis to determine best estimate plus uncertainty results to the required confidence level. In order to address uncertainty propagation in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA initiated a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) [6] that officially started in 2013. Although this project focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements, many lessons can be learned from the LWR community and the significant progress already made towards a consistent methodology uncertainty analysis. In the case of LWRs the NRC has already in 1988 amended 10 CFR 50.46 to allow best-estimate (plus uncertainties) calculations of emergency core cooling system performance. The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also established an Expert Group on "Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling" which finally led to the definition of the "Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) for Design, Operation and Safety Analysis of LWRs" [7]. The CRP on HTGR UAM will follow as far as possible the on-going OECD Light Water Reactor UAM benchmark activity.

  20. Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ghanem, Roger G

    2014-07-31

    This effort was a collaboration with Youssef Marzouk of MIT, Omar Knio of Duke University (at the time at Johns Hopkins University) and Habib Najm of Sandia National Laboratories. The objective of this effort was to develop the mathematical and algorithmic capacity to analyze complex networks under uncertainty. Of interest were chemical reaction networks and smart grid networks. The statements of work for USC focused on the development of stochastic reduced models for uncertain networks. The USC team was led by Professor Roger Ghanem and consisted of one graduate student and a postdoc. The contributions completed by the USC team consisted of 1) methodology and algorithms to address the eigenvalue problem, a problem of significance in the stability of networks under stochastic perturbations, 2) methodology and algorithms to characterize probability measures on graph structures with random flows. This is an important problem in characterizing random demand (encountered in smart grid) and random degradation (encountered in infrastructure systems), as well as modeling errors in Markov Chains (with ubiquitous relevance !). 3) methodology and algorithms for treating inequalities in uncertain systems. This is an important problem in the context of models for material failure and network flows under uncertainty where conditions of failure or flow are described in the form of inequalities between the state variables.

  1. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  2. Convex Hull Pricing in Electricity Markets: Formulation, Analysis ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dane Schiro

    2015-05-01

    May 1, 2015 ... Since a majority of electricity market problems include transmission constraints and ... intervals, a meshed network with transmission constraints, losses, ...... Each current ISO pricing method is flexible in terms of mathematical ...

  3. Using Decline Curve Analysis, Volumetric Analysis, and Bayesian Methodology to Quantify Uncertainty in Shale Gas Reserve Estimates 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gonzalez Jimenez, Raul 1988-

    2012-11-30

    Probabilistic decline curve analysis (PDCA) methods have been developed to quantify uncertainty in production forecasts and reserves estimates. However, the application of PDCA in shale gas reservoirs is relatively new. Limited work has been done...

  4. Use of SUSA in Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for INL VHTR Coupled Codes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gerhard Strydom

    2010-06-01

    The need for a defendable and systematic Uncertainty and Sensitivity approach that conforms to the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) process, and that could be used for a wide variety of software codes, was defined in 2008.The GRS (Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit) company of Germany has developed one type of CSAU approach that is particularly well suited for legacy coupled core analysis codes, and a trial version of their commercial software product SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses) was acquired on May 12, 2010. This interim milestone report provides an overview of the current status of the implementation and testing of SUSA at the INL VHTR Project Office.

  5. Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Murray, Christopher J.; Thorne, Paul D.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Rogers, Phillip M.

    2001-11-09

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework.

  6. Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) in the Residential Section: An Analysis of Installed Rooftop Prices (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    James, T.; Goodrich, A.; Woodhouse, M.; Margolis, R.; Ong, S.

    2012-06-01

    This powerpoint presentation to be presented at the World Renewable Energy Forum on May 17, 2012, in Denver, CO, discusses building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) in the residential section and includes an analysis of installed rooftop prices.

  7. Statistical analysis of illiquidity risk and premium in financial price signals

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Khandani, Amir E. (Amir Ehsan), 1979-

    2009-01-01

    Price is the most visible signal produced by competition and interaction among a complex ecology of entities in a system called financial markets. This thesis deals with statistical analysis and model identification based ...

  8. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards: A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2007-01-01

    of Alternative Fossil Fuel Price and Carbon Regulationtechnology cost, fossil fuel price uncertainty, andtechnology cost, fossil fuel price uncertainty, and

  9. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF DIOXIN-LIKE POLYCHLORINATED BIPHENYLS-RELATED TOXIC E..

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jackson, Don

    permission. UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF DIOXIN-LIKE POLYCHLORINATED BIPHENYLS-RELATED TOXIC E.. Satyendra P

  10. SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Knowledge Advancement.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Ross, Kyle; Cardoni, Jeffrey N; Kalinich, Donald A.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Ghosh, S. Tina

    2014-02-01

    This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the model response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)

  11. IAEA CRP on HTGR Uncertainty Analysis: Benchmark Definition and Test Cases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gerhard Strydom; Frederik Reitsma; Hans Gougar; Bismark Tyobeka; Kostadin Ivanov

    2012-11-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are essential elements of the reactor simulation code verification and validation process. Although several international uncertainty quantification activities have been launched in recent years in the LWR, BWR and VVER domains (e.g. the OECD/NEA BEMUSE program [1], from which the current OECD/NEA LWR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) benchmark [2] effort was derived), the systematic propagation of uncertainties in cross-section, manufacturing and model parameters for High Temperature Reactor (HTGR) designs has not been attempted yet. This paper summarises the scope, objectives and exercise definitions of the IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on HTGR UAM [3]. Note that no results will be included here, as the HTGR UAM benchmark was only launched formally in April 2012, and the specification is currently still under development.

  12. Incorporating uncertainty in the Life Cycle Cost Analysis of pavements

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Swei, Omar Abdullah

    2012-01-01

    Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is an important tool to evaluate the economic performance of alternative investments for a given project. It considers the total cost to construct, maintain, and operate a pavement over its ...

  13. Analysis on various pricing scenarios in a deregulated electricity market 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Afanador Delgado, Catalina

    2006-10-30

    to February 28, 2006, purchasing electricity on the tiered price would have cost $13,810,560. The forward contract, that is, purchasing electricity on a fixed rate, was the next cheapest with an energy cost of $14,266,870 from March 1, 2005 to February 28...

  14. Uncertainty Analysis for a Virtual Flow Meter Using an Air-Handling Unit Chilled Water Valve

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Song, Li; Wang, Gang; Brambley, Michael R.

    2013-04-28

    A virtual water flow meter is developed that uses the chilled water control valve on an air-handling unit as a measurement device. The flow rate of water through the valve is calculated using the differential pressure across the valve and its associated coil, the valve command, and an empirically determined valve characteristic curve. Thus, the probability of error in the measurements is significantly greater than for conventionally manufactured flow meters. In this paper, mathematical models are developed and used to conduct uncertainty analysis for the virtual flow meter, and the results from the virtual meter are compared to measurements made with an ultrasonic flow meter. Theoretical uncertainty analysis shows that the total uncertainty in flow rates from the virtual flow meter is 1.46% with 95% confidence; comparison of virtual flow meter results with measurements from an ultrasonic flow meter yielded anuncertainty of 1.46% with 99% confidence. The comparable results from the theoretical uncertainty analysis and empirical comparison with the ultrasonic flow meter corroborate each other, and tend to validate the approach to computationally estimating uncertainty for virtual sensors introduced in this study.

  15. An Analysis of Price Volatility in Different Spot Markets for Electricity in the U.S.A.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    An Analysis of Price Volatility in Different Spot Markets for Electricity in the U.S.A. by Tim University e-mail: tdm2@cornell.edu Abstract Earlier research has shown that the behavior of spot prices. This model captures the observed price spikes that occur in these markets, particularly during the summer

  16. Robust Efficient Frontier Analysis with a Separable Uncertainty Model

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2007-11-29

    We consider MV analysis with n risky assets held over a period of time. ..... since it is the pointwise infimum of a family of linear functions. ...... for Circuit & System Solutions award 2003-CT-888, by JPL award I291856, by the Precourt. Institute ...

  17. Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Harp, D. R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA; Atchley, A. L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA; Painter, S. L. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA; Coon, E. T. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA; Wilson, C. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA; Romanovsky, V. E. [University of Alaska, Fairbanks, USA] (ORCID:0000000295152087); Rowland, J. C. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA

    2015-01-01

    The effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections are studied using a three-phase subsurface thermal hydrology model and calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis. The Null-Space Monte Carlo method is used to identify soil hydrothermal parameter combinations that are consistent with borehole temperature measurements at the study site, the Barrow Environmental Observatory. Each parameter combination is then used in a forward projection of permafrost conditions for the 21st century (from calendar year 2006 to 2100) using atmospheric forcings from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration trajectory. A 100-year projection allows for the evaluation of intra-annual uncertainty due to soil properties and the inter-annual variability due to year to year differences in CESM climate forcings. After calibrating to borehole temperature data at this well-characterized site, soil property uncertainties are still significant and result in significant intra-annual uncertainties in projected active layer thickness and annual thaw depth-duration even with a specified future climate. Intra-annual uncertainties in projected soil moisture content and Stefan number are small. A volume and time integrated Stefan number decreases significantly in the future climate, indicating that latent heat of phase change becomes more important than heat conduction in future climates. Out of 10 soil parameters, ALT, annual thaw depth-duration, and Stefan number are highly dependent on mineral soil porosity, while annual mean liquid saturation of the active layer is highly dependent on the mineral soil residual saturation and moderately dependent on peat residual saturation. By comparing the ensemble statistics to the spread of projected permafrost metrics using different climate models, we show that the effect of calibration-constrained uncertainty in soil properties, although significant, is less than that produced by structural climate model uncertainty for this location.

  18. Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: A calibration-constrained analysis

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Harp, D. R.; Atchley, A. L.; Painter, S. L.; Coon, E. T.; Wilson, C. J.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Rowland, J. C.

    2015-06-29

    The effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections are studied using a three-phase subsurface thermal hydrology model and calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis. The Null-Space Monte Carlo method is used to identify soil hydrothermal parameter combinations that are consistent with borehole temperature measurements at the study site, the Barrow Environmental Observatory. Each parameter combination is then used in a forward projection of permafrost conditions for the 21st century (from calendar year 2006 to 2100) using atmospheric forcings from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration trajectory. A 100-year projection allows formore »the evaluation of intra-annual uncertainty due to soil properties and the inter-annual variability due to year to year differences in CESM climate forcings. After calibrating to borehole temperature data at this well-characterized site, soil property uncertainties are still significant and result in significant intra-annual uncertainties in projected active layer thickness and annual thaw depth-duration even with a specified future climate. Intra-annual uncertainties in projected soil moisture content and Stefan number are small. A volume and time integrated Stefan number decreases significantly in the future climate, indicating that latent heat of phase change becomes more important than heat conduction in future climates. Out of 10 soil parameters, ALT, annual thaw depth-duration, and Stefan number are highly dependent on mineral soil porosity, while annual mean liquid saturation of the active layer is highly dependent on the mineral soil residual saturation and moderately dependent on peat residual saturation. By comparing the ensemble statistics to the spread of projected permafrost metrics using different climate models, we show that the effect of calibration-constrained uncertainty in soil properties, although significant, is less than that produced by structural climate model uncertainty for this location.« less

  19. Use of Forward Sensitivity Analysis Method to Improve Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) Methodology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Haihua Zhao; Vincent A. Mousseau; Nam T. Dinh

    2010-10-01

    Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology was developed in late 1980s by US NRC to systematically quantify reactor simulation uncertainty. Basing on CSAU methodology, Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methods have been developed and widely used for new reactor designs and existing LWRs power uprate. In spite of these successes, several aspects of CSAU have been criticized for further improvement: i.e., (1) subjective judgement in PIRT process; (2) high cost due to heavily relying large experimental database, needing many experts man-years work, and very high computational overhead; (3) mixing numerical errors with other uncertainties; (4) grid dependence and same numerical grids for both scaled experiments and real plants applications; (5) user effects; Although large amount of efforts have been used to improve CSAU methodology, the above issues still exist. With the effort to develop next generation safety analysis codes, new opportunities appear to take advantage of new numerical methods, better physical models, and modern uncertainty qualification methods. Forward sensitivity analysis (FSA) directly solves the PDEs for parameter sensitivities (defined as the differential of physical solution with respective to any constant parameter). When the parameter sensitivities are available in a new advanced system analysis code, CSAU could be significantly improved: (1) Quantifying numerical errors: New codes which are totally implicit and with higher order accuracy can run much faster with numerical errors quantified by FSA. (2) Quantitative PIRT (Q-PIRT) to reduce subjective judgement and improving efficiency: treat numerical errors as special sensitivities against other physical uncertainties; only parameters having large uncertainty effects on design criterions are considered. (3) Greatly reducing computational costs for uncertainty qualification by (a) choosing optimized time steps and spatial sizes; (b) using gradient information (sensitivity result) to reduce sampling number. (4) Allowing grid independence for scaled integral effect test (IET) simulation and real plant applications: (a) eliminate numerical uncertainty on scaling; (b) reduce experimental cost by allowing smaller scaled IET; (c) eliminate user effects. This paper will review the issues related to the current CSAU, introduce FSA, discuss a potential Q-PIRT process, and show simple examples to perform FSA. Finally, the general research direction and requirements to use FSA in a system analysis code will be discussed.

  20. Implementation of a Bayesian Engine for Uncertainty Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Leng Vang; Curtis Smith; Steven Prescott

    2014-08-01

    In probabilistic risk assessment, it is important to have an environment where analysts have access to a shared and secured high performance computing and a statistical analysis tool package. As part of the advanced small modular reactor probabilistic risk analysis framework implementation, we have identified the need for advanced Bayesian computations. However, in order to make this technology available to non-specialists, there is also a need of a simplified tool that allows users to author models and evaluate them within this framework. As a proof-of-concept, we have implemented an advanced open source Bayesian inference tool, OpenBUGS, within the browser-based cloud risk analysis framework that is under development at the Idaho National Laboratory. This development, the “OpenBUGS Scripter” has been implemented as a client side, visual web-based and integrated development environment for creating OpenBUGS language scripts. It depends on the shared server environment to execute the generated scripts and to transmit results back to the user. The visual models are in the form of linked diagrams, from which we automatically create the applicable OpenBUGS script that matches the diagram. These diagrams can be saved locally or stored on the server environment to be shared with other users.

  1. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of fission gas behavior in engineering-scale fuel modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    G. Pastore; L.P. Swiler; J.D. Hales; S.R. Novascone; D.M. Perez; B.W. Spencer; L. Luzzi; P. Van Uffelen; R.L. Williamson

    2014-10-01

    The role of uncertainties in fission gas behavior calculations as part of engineering-scale nuclear fuel modeling is investigated using the BISON fuel performance code and a recently implemented physics-based model for the coupled fission gas release and swelling. Through the integration of BISON with the DAKOTA software, a sensitivity analysis of the results to selected model parameters is carried out based on UO2 single-pellet simulations covering different power regimes. The parameters are varied within ranges representative of the relative uncertainties and consistent with the information from the open literature. The study leads to an initial quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in fission gas behavior modeling with the parameter characterization presently available. Also, the relative importance of the single parameters is evaluated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on simulations of a fuel rod irradiation experiment, pointing out a significant impact of the considered uncertainties on the calculated fission gas release and cladding diametral strain. The results of the study indicate that the commonly accepted deviation between calculated and measured fission gas release by a factor of 2 approximately corresponds to the inherent modeling uncertainty at high fission gas release. Nevertheless, higher deviations may be expected for values around 10% and lower. Implications are discussed in terms of directions of research for the improved modeling of fission gas behavior for engineering purposes.

  2. SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tuenge, Jason R.

    2013-10-01

    An LED lamp or luminaire can generally be found that matches or exceeds the efficacy of benchmark technologies in a given product category, and LED products continue to expand into ever-higher lumen output niches. However, the price premium for LED continues to pose a barrier to adoption in many applications, in spite of expected savings from reduced energy use and maintenance. Other factors—such as dimmability and quality of light—can also present challenges. The appropriate type, timing, and magnitude of energy efficiency activities will vary from organization to organization based on local variables and the method of evaluation. A number of factors merit consideration when prioritizing activities for development. Category-specific projections for pricing and efficacy are provided herein to assist in efficiency program planning efforts.

  3. A stochastic framework for uncertainty analysis in electric power transmission systems with wind generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    of generating units, the transfer of electric power over networks of transmission lines and, finally1 A stochastic framework for uncertainty analysis in electric power transmission systems with wind an electric transmission network with wind power generation and their impact on its reliability. A stochastic

  4. Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

  5. Quantification of margins and uncertainty for risk-informed decision analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Alvin, Kenneth Fredrick

    2010-09-01

    QMU stands for 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties'. QMU is a basic framework for consistency in integrating simulation, data, and/or subject matter expertise to provide input into a risk-informed decision-making process. QMU is being applied to a wide range of NNSA stockpile issues, from performance to safety. The implementation of QMU varies with lab and application focus. The Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Program develops validated computational simulation tools to be applied in the context of QMU. QMU provides input into a risk-informed decision making process. The completeness aspect of QMU can benefit from the structured methodology and discipline of quantitative risk assessment (QRA)/probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). In characterizing uncertainties it is important to pay attention to the distinction between those arising from incomplete knowledge ('epistemic' or systematic), and those arising from device-to-device variation ('aleatory' or random). The national security labs should investigate the utility of a probability of frequency (PoF) approach in presenting uncertainties in the stockpile. A QMU methodology is connected if the interactions between failure modes are included. The design labs should continue to focus attention on quantifying uncertainties that arise from epistemic uncertainties such as poorly-modeled phenomena, numerical errors, coding errors, and systematic uncertainties in experiment. The NNSA and design labs should ensure that the certification plan for any RRW is supported by strong, timely peer review and by an ongoing, transparent QMU-based documentation and analysis in order to permit a confidence level necessary for eventual certification.

  6. Implementation and Validation of Uncertainty Analysis of Available Energy and Available Power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jon P. Christophersen; John L. Morrison; B. J. Schubert; Shawn Allred

    2007-04-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory does extensive testing and evaluation of state-of-the-art batteries and ultracapacitors for hybrid-electric vehicle applications as part of the FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program. Significant parameters of interest include Available Energy and Available Power. Documenting the uncertainty analysis of these derived parameters is a very complex problem. The error is an unknown combination of both linearity and offset; the analysis presented in this paper computes the uncertainty both ways and then the most conservative method is assumed (which is the worst case scenario). Each method requires the use of over 134 equations, some of which are derived and some are measured values. This includes the measurement device error (calibration error) and bit resolution and analog noise error (standard deviation error). The implementation of these equations to acquire a closed form answer was done using Matlab (an array based programming language) and validated using Monte Carlo simulations.

  7. Evaluating and developing parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis methods for a computationally intensive distributed hydrological model 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Zhang, Xuesong

    2009-05-15

    &M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY August 2008 Major Subject: Water Management and Hydrologic Sciences EVALUATING AND DEVELOPING PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS... OF PHILOSOPHY Approved by: Chair of Committee, Raghavan Srinivasan Committee Members, Faming Liang Patricia K. Smith Francisco Olivera Head of Department, Ronald Kaiser August 2008 Major Subject: Water Management and Hydrologic Sciences iii...

  8. Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis- 2012

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report provides tables of present-value factors for use in the life-cycle cost analysis of capital investment projects for federal facilities. It also provides energy price indices based on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts from 2012 to 2042.

  9. Determining Price Reasonableness in Federal ESPCs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shonder, J.A.

    2005-03-08

    This document reports the findings and implementation recommendations of the Price Reasonableness Working Group to the Federal ESPC Steering Committee. The working group was formed to address concerns of agencies and oversight organizations related to pricing and fair and reasonable price determination in federal energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs). This report comprises the working group's recommendations and is the proposed draft of a training curriculum on fair and reasonable price determination for users of federal ESPCs. The report includes: (1) A review of federal regulations applicable to determining price reasonableness of federal ESPCs (section 2), (2) Brief descriptions of the techniques described in Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR) 15.404-1 and their applicability to ESPCs (section 3), and (3) Recommended strategies and procedures for cost-effectively completing price reasonableness determinations (sections 4). Agencies have struggled with fair and reasonable price determinations in their ESPCs primarily because this alternative financing vehicle is relatively new and relatively rare in the federal sector. The methods of determining price reasonableness most familiar to federal contracting officers (price competition based on the government's design and specifications, in particular) are generally not applicable to ESPCs. The regulatory requirements for determining price reasonableness in federal ESPCs have also been misunderstood, as federal procurement professionals who are inexperienced with ESPCs are further confused by multiple directives, including Executive Order 13123, which stresses life-cycle cost-effectiveness. Uncertainty about applicable regulations and inconsistent practice and documentation among agencies have fueled claims that price reasonableness determinations have not been sufficiently rigorous in federal ESPCs or that the prices paid in ESPCs are generally higher than the prices paid for similar goods and services obtained through conventional procurements. While claims of excessive prices are largely unsubstantiated and based on anecdotal evidence, the perception that there is a problem is shared by many in the ESPC community and has been noted by auditors and oversight organizations. The Price Reasonableness Working Group determined that a more formal emphasis on FAR 15.404-1 in the ESPC process could remove much of the doubt about price reasonableness determinations. The working group's recommended consensus policy on price reasonableness stresses the price analysis techniques described in the FAR that are applicable to ESPCs and includes guidance for agencies use of these techniques in determining price reasonableness for their ESPC delivery orders. The recommended policy and guidance, if communicated to federal ESPC stakeholders, can ensure that agencies will comply with the FAR in awarding ESPCs, obtain fair and reasonable prices and best value for the government, and follow procedures that provide auditable documentation of due diligence in price reasonableness determinations.

  10. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of accident management strategies involving multiple decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jae, Moosung; Milici, A.D.; Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.E. (Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States))

    1993-10-01

    A framework for assessing severe accident management strategies is presented using a new analytical tool, namely, influence diagrams. This framework includes multiple and sequential decisions, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty propagation, and is applied to a proposed set of strategies for a pressurized water reactor station blackout sequence. The influence diagram associated with these strategies is constructed and evaluated. Each decision variable, represented by a node in the influence diagram, has an uncertainty distribution associated with it. Using the mean value of these distributions, a best estimate assessment is performed, and each strategy is ranked with respect to the conditional frequency of early containment failure (ECF). For the preferred alternative, the sensitivity of the results to values of the input variables is investigated. The sensitivity of the ranking itself is then considered. The distributions of the uncertain variables are also propagated through the influence diagram to rank the alternatives with respect to the uncertainty associated with the calculated conditional frequency of ECF. Finally, the sensitivity of the variance of the output distribution, given the preferred decision alternative, to the uncertainty of the input variables is investigated.

  11. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of early exposure results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; McKay, M.D.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the early health effects associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 34 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: number of early fatalities, number of cases of prodromal vomiting, population dose within 10 mi of the reactor, population dose within 1000 mi of the reactor, individual early fatality probability within 1 mi of the reactor, and maximum early fatality distance. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: scaling factor for horizontal dispersion, dry deposition velocity, inhalation protection factor for nonevacuees, groundshine shielding factor for nonevacuees, early fatality hazard function alpha value for bone marrow exposure, and scaling factor for vertical dispersion.

  12. Thermoacoustic modeling and uncertainty analysis of two-dimensional conductive Jonghoon Bin, William S. Oates, and Kunihiko Taira

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Thermoacoustic modeling and uncertainty analysis of two-dimensional conductive membranes Jonghoon-dimensional model for thermoacoustic engines J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 111, 2076 (2002); 10.1121/1.1467675 [This article://scitation.aip.org/termsconditions. Downloaded to ] IP: 146.201.18.83 On: Fri, 13 Feb 2015 15:46:28 #12;Thermoacoustic modeling and uncertainty

  13. DOE Publishes Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    from DOE's LED Lighting Facts and CALiPER programs, plus cost analysis from various sources. Application-specific projections provide time for planning, enable prioritization...

  14. Tariff-based analysis of commercial building electricity prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Coughlin, Katie M.; Bolduc, Chris A.; Rosenquist, Greg J.; Van Buskirk, Robert D.; McMahon, James E.

    2008-01-01

    this analysis. For the energy consumption data, within eachenergy consumption, for January and July, for the CBECS data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4]. The billing data include energy consumption, demand and

  15. Use of Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis to Support M&VDecisions in ESPCs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mathew, Paul A.; Koehling, Erick; Kumar, Satish

    2005-05-11

    Measurement and Verification (M&V) is a critical elementof an Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) - without M&V, thereisno way to confirm that the projected savings in an ESPC are in factbeing realized. For any given energy conservation measure in an ESPC,there are usually several M&V choices, which will vary in terms ofmeasurement uncertainty, cost, and technical feasibility. Typically,M&V decisions are made almost solely based on engineering judgmentand experience, with little, if any, quantitative uncertainty analysis(QUA). This paper describes the results of a pilot project initiated bythe Department of Energy s Federal Energy Management Program to explorethe use of Monte-Carlo simulation to assess savings uncertainty andthereby augment the M&V decision-making process in ESPCs. The intentwas to use QUA selectively in combination with heuristic knowledge, inorder to obtain quantitative estimates of the savings uncertainty withoutthe burden of a comprehensive "bottoms-up" QUA. This approach was used toanalyze the savings uncertainty in an ESPC for a large federal agency.The QUA was seamlessly integrated into the ESPC development process andthe incremental effort was relatively small with user-friendly tools thatare commercially available. As the case study illustrates, in some casesthe QUA simply confirms intuitive or qualitative information, while inother cases, it provides insight that suggests revisiting the M&Vplan. The case study also showed that M&V decisions should beinformed by the portfolio risk diversification. By providing quantitativeuncertainty information, QUA can effectively augment the M&Vdecision-making process as well as the overall ESPC financialanalysis.

  16. Uncertainty analysis on reactivity and discharged inventory for a pressurized water reactor fuel assembly due to {sup 235,238}U nuclear data uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Da Cruz, D. F.; Rochman, D.; Koning, A. J. [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group NRG, Westerduinweg 3, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands)

    2012-07-01

    This paper discusses the uncertainty analysis on reactivity and inventory for a typical PWR fuel element as a result of uncertainties in {sup 235,238}U nuclear data. A typical Westinghouse 3-loop fuel assembly fuelled with UO{sub 2} fuel with 4.8% enrichment has been selected. The Total Monte-Carlo method has been applied using the deterministic transport code DRAGON. This code allows the generation of the few-groups nuclear data libraries by directly using data contained in the nuclear data evaluation files. The nuclear data used in this study is from the JEFF3.1 evaluation, and the nuclear data files for {sup 238}U and {sup 235}U (randomized for the generation of the various DRAGON libraries) are taken from the nuclear data library TENDL. The total uncertainty (obtained by randomizing all {sup 238}U and {sup 235}U nuclear data in the ENDF files) on the reactor parameters has been split into different components (different nuclear reaction channels). Results show that the TMC method in combination with a deterministic transport code constitutes a powerful tool for performing uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of reactor physics parameters. (authors)

  17. SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tuenge, J. R.

    2013-10-01

    Report to help utilities and energy efficiency organizations forecast the order in which important SSL applications will become cost-effective and estimate when each "tipping point" will be reached. Includes performance trend analysis from DOE's LED Lighting Facts® and CALiPER programs plus cost analysis from various sources.

  18. Automouse: An improvement to the mouse computerized uncertainty analysis system operational manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Klee, A.J.

    1992-08-01

    Under a mandate of national environmental laws, the agency strives to formulate and implement actions leading to a compatible balance between human activities and the ability of natural systems to support and nurture life. The Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is responsible for planning, implementing, and managing research development, and demonstration programs to provide an authoritative, defensible engineering basis in support of the policies, programs, and regulations of the EPA with respect to drinking water, wastewater, pesticides, toxic substances, solid and hazardous wastes, and Superfund-related activities. The publication is one of the products of that research and provides a vital communication link between the researcher and the user community. The manual describes a system, called MOUSE (for Modular Oriented Uncertainty SystEm), for dealing with the computational problems of uncertainty, specifically in models that consist of a set of one or more equations. Since such models are frequently encountered in the fields of environmental science, risk analysis, economics, and engineering, the system has broad application throughout these fields. An important part of the MOUSE system is AutoMOUSE which actually writes the computer programs required for the uncertainty analysis computations. Thus, no prior programming knowledge is needed to learn or use MOUSE and, because of its transportability and compactness, the system can be run on a wide variety of personal computers available to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and/or its contractors and grantees.

  19. An Analysis of the Effects of Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in California

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoen, Ben

    2011-01-01

    Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales PricesResidential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices

  20. Weighing the Costs and Benefits of State Renewables Portfolio Standards in the United States: A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chen, Cliff

    2009-01-01

    technology costs, fossil fuel price uncertainty, alternativeand performance assumptions. Fossil fuel price uncertainty:able Technology Cost Fossil Fuel Price Uncertainty Alternate

  1. Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over This article extends the understanding of oil­stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade. Unlike returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector. In the out

  2. Uncertainty Studies of Real Anode Surface Area in Computational Analysis for Molten Salt Electrorefining

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sungyeol Choi; Jaeyeong Park; Robert O. Hoover; Supathorn Phongikaroon; Michael F. Simpson; Kwang-Rag Kim; Il Soon Hwang

    2011-09-01

    This study examines how much cell potential changes with five differently assumed real anode surface area cases. Determining real anode surface area is a significant issue to be resolved for precisely modeling molten salt electrorefining. Based on a three-dimensional electrorefining model, calculated cell potentials compare with an experimental cell potential variation over 80 hours of operation of the Mark-IV electrorefiner with driver fuel from the Experimental Breeder Reactor II. We succeeded to achieve a good agreement with an overall trend of the experimental data with appropriate selection of a mode for real anode surface area, but there are still local inconsistencies between theoretical calculation and experimental observation. In addition, the results were validated and compared with two-dimensional results to identify possible uncertainty factors that had to be further considered in a computational electrorefining analysis. These uncertainty factors include material properties, heterogeneous material distribution, surface roughness, and current efficiency. Zirconium's abundance and complex behavior have more impact on uncertainty towards the latter period of electrorefining at given batch of fuel. The benchmark results found that anode materials would be dissolved from both axial and radial directions at least for low burn-up metallic fuels after active liquid sodium bonding was dissolved.

  3. Uncertainties on $?_S$ in the MMHT2014 global PDF analysis and implications for SM predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    L. A. Harland-Lang; A. D. Martin; P. Motylinski; R. S. Thorne

    2015-06-18

    We investigate the uncertainty in the value of the strong coupling $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ when allowing it to be a free parameter in the recent MMHT global analyses of deep-inelastic and related hard scattering data that was undertaken to determine the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton. The analysis uses the standard framework of leading twist fixed--order collinear factorisation in the ${\\overline {\\rm MS}}$ scheme. We study the constraints on the value of $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ coming from the individual data sets by repeating the NNLO and NLO global analyses at various fixed values of $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ about its optimum values, spanning the range $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)=0.108$ to $0.128$ in units of $0.001$, and making all PDFs sets available. The inclusion of the measurements of the cross section for inclusive $t\\bar{t}$ production in the global fit allows us to explore the correlation between the values taken for the mass $m_t$ of the top quark and $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$. We find that the best fit values are $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)=0.1201\\pm0.0015$ and $0.1172\\pm 0.0013$ at NLO and NNLO respectively, with the central values changing to $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)=0.1195$ and $0.1178$ when the world average of $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ is used as a data point. We investigate the interplay between the uncertainties on $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ and the uncertainties on the PDFs. In particular we calculate the cross sections for key processes at the LHC and show how the uncertainties coming from the standard MMHT2014 PDFs and from $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ can be provided independently and can be combined.

  4. Uncertainty analysis for an updated dose assessment for a US nuclear test site: Bikini Atoll

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bogen, K.T.; Conrado, C.L.; Robison, W.L.

    1995-11-01

    A detailed analysis of uncertainty and interindividual variability in estimated doses was conducted for a rehabilitation scenario for Bikini Island at Bikini Atoll, in which the top 40 cm of soil would be removed in the housing and village area, and the rest of the island is treated with potassium fertilizer, prior to an assumed resettlement date of 1999. Predicted doses were considered for the following fallout-related exposure pathways: ingested Cesium-137 and Strontium-90, external gamma exposure, and inhalation and ingestion of Americium-241 + Plutonium-239+240. Two dietary scenarios were considered: (1) imported foods are available (IA), and (2) imported foods are unavailable (only local foods are consumed) (IUA). Corresponding calculations of uncertainty in estimated population-average dose showed that after {approximately}5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to uncertainty in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its population-average value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). Corresponding calculations of interindividual variability in the expected value of dose with respect to uncertainty showed that after {approximately}5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to interindividual variability in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its expected value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). For reference, the expected values of population-average dose at age 70 were estimated to be 1.6 and 5.2 cSv under the IA and IUA dietary assumptions, respectively. Assuming that 200 Bikini resettlers would be exposed to local foods (under both IA and IUA assumptions), the maximum 1-y dose received by any Bikini resident is most likely to be approximately 2 and 8 mSv under the IA and IUA assumptions, respectively.

  5. SWEPP PAN assay system uncertainty analysis: Passive mode measurements of graphite waste

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blackwood, L.G.; Harker, Y.D.; Meachum, T.R.; Yoon, Woo Y.

    1997-07-01

    The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory is being used as a temporary storage facility for transuranic waste generated by the U.S. Nuclear Weapons program at the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) in Golden, Colorado. Currently, there is a large effort in progress to prepare to ship this waste to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in Carlsbad, New Mexico. In order to meet the TRU Waste Characterization Quality Assurance Program Plan nondestructive assay compliance requirements and quality assurance objectives, it is necessary to determine the total uncertainty of the radioassay results produced by the Stored Waste Examination Pilot Plant (SWEPP) Passive Active Neutron (PAN) radioassay system. To this end a modified statistical sampling and verification approach has been developed to determine the total uncertainty of a PAN measurement. In this approach the total performance of the PAN nondestructive assay system is simulated using computer models of the assay system and the resultant output is compared with the known input to assess the total uncertainty. This paper is one of a series of reports quantifying the results of the uncertainty analysis of the PAN system measurements for specific waste types and measurement modes. In particular this report covers passive mode measurements of weapons grade plutonium-contaminated graphite molds contained in 208 liter drums (waste code 300). The validity of the simulation approach is verified by comparing simulated output against results from measurements using known plutonium sources and a surrogate graphite waste form drum. For actual graphite waste form conditions, a set of 50 cases covering a statistical sampling of the conditions exhibited in graphite wastes was compiled using a Latin hypercube statistical sampling approach.

  6. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk.

  7. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season.

  8. Shifting demand or just moving price?: A multi-level analysis of student price demand for college education and state policy preferences

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Okahana, Hironao

    2013-01-01

    education: Enrollment, prices, student aid and outcomes,D. E. (1997). Student price response in higher education: AnP. T. (1987). Student price response in higher education:

  9. An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Household Appliances

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fujita, Kimberly; Dale, Larry; Fujita, K. Sydny

    2008-01-25

    This report summarizes our study of the price elasticity of demand for home appliances, including refrigerators, clothes washers, and dishwashers. In the context of increasingly stringent appliance standards, we are interested in what kind of impact the increased manufacturing costs caused by higher efficiency requirements will have on appliance sales. We begin with a review of existing economics literature describing the impact of economic variables on the sale of durable goods.We then describe the market for home appliances and changes in this market over the past 20 years, performing regression analysis on the shipments of home appliances and relevant economic variables including changes to operating cost and household income. Based on our analysis, we conclude that the demand for home appliances is price inelastic.

  10. Uncertainty Analysis of a Giant Oil Field in the Middle East Using Surrogate Reservoir Model Shahab D. Mohaghegh, West Virginia University

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohaghegh, Shahab

    Uncertainty Analysis of a Giant Oil Field in the Middle East Using Surrogate Reservoir Model Shahab, and Maher Kenawy, ADCO ABSTRACT Simulation models are routinely used as a powerful tool for reservoir carry an inherent degree of uncertainty. Typical uncertainty analysis techniques require many

  11. A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior In California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Joskow, Paul; Kahn, Edward

    2004-06-16

    in Northern California, gas-fired steam and peaking turbines, and cogenerators and other generation sources that are ?Qualifying Facilities? (QFs) under the Public Utility Regulatory Policy Act of 1978 (PURPA). About half of in-state generating capacity... and Lynch (2000), California Independent System Operator Department of Market Analysis (2000), California Power Exchange Corporation Compliance Unit (2000) among others. 3 FERC (1998) gives a detailed account of price spikes in Midwestern markets...

  12. SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF COMMERCIAL REACTOR CRITICALS FOR BURNUP CREDIT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radulescu, Georgeta [ORNL; Mueller, Don [ORNL; Wagner, John C [ORNL

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to provide insights into the neutronic similarities that may exist between a generic cask containing typical spent nuclear fuel assemblies and commercial reactor critical (CRC) state-points. Forty CRC state-points from five pressurized-water reactors were selected for the study and the type of CRC state-points that may be applicable for validation of burnup credit criticality safety calculations for spent fuel transport/storage/disposal systems are identified. The study employed cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the TSUNAMI set of tools in the SCALE code system as a means to investigate system similarity on an integral and nuclide-reaction specific level. The results indicate that, except for the fresh fuel core configuration, all analyzed CRC state-points are either highly similar, similar, or marginally similar to a generic cask containing spent nuclear fuel assemblies with burnups ranging from 10 to 60 GWd/MTU. Based on the integral system parameter, C{sub k}, approximately 30 of the 40 CRC state-points are applicable to validation of burnup credit in the generic cask containing typical spent fuel assemblies with burnups ranging from 10 to 60 GWd/MTU. The state-points providing the highest similarity (C{sub k} > 0.95) were attained at or near the end of a reactor cycle. The C{sub k} values are dominated by neutron reactions with major actinides and hydrogen, as the sensitivities of these reactions are much higher than those of the minor actinides and fission products. On a nuclide-reaction specific level, the CRC state-points provide significant similarity for most of the actinides and fission products relevant to burnup credit. A comparison of energy-dependent sensitivity profiles shows a slight shift of the CRC K{sub eff} sensitivity profiles toward higher energies in the thermal region as compared to the K{sub eff} sensitivity profile of the generic cask. Parameters representing coverage of the application by the CRCs on an energy-dependent, nuclide-reaction specific level (i.e., effectiveness of the CRCs for validating the cross sections as used in the application) were also examined. Based on the CRCs with C{sub k} > 0.8 and an assumed relative standard deviation for uncovered covariance data of 25%, the relative standard deviation of K{sub eff} due to uncovered sensitivity data varies from 0.79% to 0.95% for cask burnups ranging from 10 to 60 GWd/MTU. As expected, this uncertainty in K{sub eff} is largely dominated by noncoverage of sensitivities from major actinides and hydrogen. The contributions from fission products and minor actinides are very small and comparable to statistical uncertainties in K{sub eff} results. These results (again, assuming a 25% uncertainty for uncovered covariance data) indicate that there could be approximately 1% uncertainty in the calculated application K{sub eff} due to incomplete neutronic testing (validation) of the software by the CRCs. However, this conclusion also assumes all other uncertainties in the complex CRC configurations (e.g., isotopic compositions of burned fuel, operation history, data) are well known. Thus, an evaluation of the uncertainties in the CRC configurations is needed prior to the use of CRCs for code validation (i.e., quantifying code bias and bias uncertainty).

  13. Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Siddiqui, Afzal

    2008-01-01

    of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treat- ment ofits exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. Inits exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its

  14. Uncertainty analysis and order-by-order optimization of chiral nuclear interactions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Carlsson, B D; Forssén, C; Strömberg, D Fahlin; Lilja, O; Lindby, M; Mattsson, B A; Wendt, K A

    2015-01-01

    Chiral effective field theory ($\\chi$EFT) provides a systematic approach to describe low-energy nuclear forces. Moreover, $\\chi$EFT is able to provide well-founded estimates of statistical and systematic uncertainties although this unique advantage has not yet been fully exploited. We fill this gap by performing an optimization and statistical analysis of all the low-energy constants (LECs) up to next-to-next-to-leading order. We simultaneously fit to scattering and bound-state observables in the pion-nucleon, nucleon-nucleon, and few-nucleon sectors in order to utilize the full model capabilities of $\\chi$EFT. Finally, we demonstrate methods to propagate uncertainties to other observables, such that they can easily be adopted by future works. We employ mathematical optimization and implement automatic differentiation to attain efficient and machine-precise first- and second-order derivatives of the objective function with respect to the LECs. This is also vital for the regression analysis. We use power-count...

  15. The price of electricity from private power producers: Stage 2, Expansion of sample and preliminary statistical analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Comnes, G.A.; Belden, T.N.; Kahn, E.P.

    1995-02-01

    The market for long-term bulk power is becoming increasingly competitive and mature. Given that many privately developed power projects have been or are being developed in the US, it is possible to begin to evaluate the performance of the market by analyzing its revealed prices. Using a consistent method, this paper presents levelized contract prices for a sample of privately developed US generation properties. The sample includes 26 projects with a total capacity of 6,354 MW. Contracts are described in terms of their choice of technology, choice of fuel, treatment of fuel price risk, geographic location, dispatchability, expected dispatch niche, and size. The contract price analysis shows that gas technologies clearly stand out as the most attractive. At an 80% capacity factor, coal projects have an average 20-year levelized price of $0.092/kWh, whereas natural gas combined cycle and/or cogeneration projects have an average price of $0.069/kWh. Within each technology type subsample, however, there is considerable variation. Prices for natural gas combustion turbines and one wind project are also presented. A preliminary statistical analysis is conducted to understand the relationship between price and four categories of explanatory factors including product heterogeneity, geographic heterogeneity, economic and technological change, and other buyer attributes (including avoided costs). Because of residual price variation, we are unable to accept the hypothesis that electricity is a homogeneous product. Instead, the analysis indicates that buyer value still plays an important role in the determination of price for competitively-acquired electricity.

  16. Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Perkó, Zoltán Gilli, Luca Lathouwers, Danny Kloosterman, Jan Leen

    2014-03-01

    The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods – such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling – Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work is focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good performance both in terms of the accuracy of the resulting PC representation of quantities and the computational costs associated with constructing the sparse PCE. Basis adaptivity also seems to make the employment of PC techniques possible for problems with a higher number of input parameters (15–20), alleviating a well known limitation of the traditional approach. The prospect of larger scale applicability and the simplicity of implementation makes such adaptive PC algorithms particularly appealing for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex systems and legacy codes.

  17. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    peak, and finds that this nonlinear transformation of the oiland oil price growth rates. As seen in the above illustration, uncertainty is at its peak

  18. AEP Ohio gridSMART Demonstration Project Real-Time Pricing Demonstration Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widergren, Steven E.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Fuller, Jason C.; Chassin, David P.; Somani, Abhishek; Marinovici, Maria C.; Hammerstrom, Janelle L.

    2014-02-01

    This report contributes initial findings from an analysis of significant aspects of the gridSMART® Real-Time Pricing (RTP) – Double Auction demonstration project. Over the course of four years, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) worked with American Electric Power (AEP), Ohio and Battelle Memorial Institute to design, build, and operate an innovative system to engage residential consumers and their end-use resources in a participatory approach to electric system operations, an incentive-based approach that has the promise of providing greater efficiency under normal operating conditions and greater flexibility to react under situations of system stress. The material contained in this report supplements the findings documented by AEP Ohio in the main body of the gridSMART report. It delves into three main areas: impacts on system operations, impacts on households, and observations about the sensitivity of load to price changes.

  19. An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Household Appliances

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dale, Larry

    2008-01-01

    D. and R. Rao. Effect of Price on the Demand for Durables:1997 Tellis, G. The Price Elasticity of Selective Demand: A1997 4 G. Tellis. "The Price Elasticity of Selective Demand:

  20. An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Household Appliances

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dale, Larry

    2008-01-01

    and Appliance Price………………………………6 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1estimates in this table. 7 Average brand price elasticityTable 2.2 Appliance Refrigerators Clothes Washers Dishwashers Economic Variables Price

  1. An Analysis of the Effects of Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in California

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hoen, Ben

    2011-01-01

    Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in CaliforniaResidential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in CaliforniaCalifornia electric utilities provide service under tiered residential rates that charge progressively higher prices for energy

  2. A regional analysis of U.S. utility slaughter cows prices 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rogers, Toby Gale

    1996-01-01

    This study investigated the effects of Utility slaughter cow supply, lagged prices, per capita disposable personal income, prime interest rates, price of wholesale Utility beef, seasonality and yearly effects on the price of Utility slaughter cows...

  3. An Analysis of the Effects of Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Residential Selling Prices in California.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Cappers, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in CaliforniaCalifornia electric utilities provide service under tiered residential rates that charge progressively higher prices for energy

  4. The best-estimate analysis of LB LOCA with uncertainty evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stritar, A.; Mavko, B.; Prosek, A.

    1992-01-01

    The large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LB LOCA) has been analyzed with a conservative computer code and methodology. One of the conclusions of that analysis was the need for the uncertainty analysis of the final result with the number of input parameters as independent variables. In this paper, the analysis of the LB LOCA with the best-estimate code, RELAP5/MOD2, is described. The analysis has been performed for the Krsko nuclear power plant in Slovenia. It is a Westinghouse two-loop 664-MW (electric) pressurized water reactor. The cold-leg break between the pump and the reactor vessel has been selected for the analysis. The input model that was used with the RELAP5/MOD2 code was the modified standard input for that plant, which had been used for transient analyses for several years. The changes to the model were introduced mainly to achieve better efficiency of the extensive computational task. The number of heat slabs on the secondary side of the steam generators has been reduced to gain computing speed. The number of axial heat slabs in the core has been increased to achieve a better power profile. There were two hot rods modeled in the average hydraulic core. With two hot rods, the number of necessary calculations has been halved. In each hot rod, a model of another input parameter has been applied.

  5. A Probabilistic Graphical Approach to Computing Electricity Price Duration Curves under Price and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oren, Shmuel S.

    A Probabilistic Graphical Approach to Computing Electricity Price Duration Curves under Price,oren}@ieor.berkeley.edu Abstract-- The electricity price duration curve (EPDC) repre- sents the probability distribution function of the electricity price considered as a random variable. The price uncertainty comes both from the demand side

  6. Literature Review of Uncertainty of Analysis Methods (PV F-Chart Program), Report to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haberl, J. S.; Cho, S.

    2004-01-01

    This report reviews the reported uncertainty of the PV F-Chart analysis method by reviewing the published related accuracy of PV F-Chart analysis versus measured data, PV F-Chart predictions versus other methods, and PV F-Chart predictions versus...

  7. Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Environmental Data and Models. Volume 1. Theory and Methodology Based Upon Bootstrap Simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frey, H. Christopher; Rhodes, David S.

    1999-04-30

    This is Volume 1 of a two-volume set of reports describing work conducted at North Carolina State University sponsored by Grant Number DE-FG05-95ER30250 by the U.S. Department of Energy. The title of the project is “Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Acid Rain Assessments.” The work conducted under sponsorship of this grant pertains primarily to two main topics: (1) development of new methods for quantitative analysis of variability and uncertainty applicable to any type of model; and (2) analysis of variability and uncertainty in the performance, emissions, and cost of electric power plant combustion-based NOx control technologies. These two main topics are reported separately in Volumes 1 and 2.

  8. DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eldred, Michael Scott; Vigil, Dena M.; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Lefantzi, Sophia; Hough, Patricia Diane; Eddy, John P.

    2011-12-01

    The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the DAKOTA software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of DAKOTA-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of DAKOTA's iterative analysis capabilities.

  9. Uncertainty Analysis of Capacity Estimates and Leakage Potential for Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Saline Aquifers

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Saline Aquifers by Yamama Raza Submitted to the Engineering Systems DivisionUncertainty Analysis of Capacity Estimates and Leakage Potential for Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Saline Aquifers by Yamama Raza S.B., Engineering Science, Smith College, 2006 Submitted

  10. Literature Review of Uncertainty of Analysis Methods (Inverse Model Toolkit), Report to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Haberl, J. S.; Cho, S.

    2004-01-01

    This report reviews the reported uncertainty of ASHRAE’s Inverse Model Toolkit (IMT) analysis method and the linear, and change-point linear algorithms that it uses by reviewing the published literature on the related accuracy of IMT and its...

  11. Gamma-Ray Library and Uncertainty Analysis: Passively Emitted Gamma Rays Used in Safeguards Technology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parker, W

    2009-09-18

    Non-destructive gamma-ray analysis is a fundamental part of nuclear safeguards, including nuclear energy safeguards technology. Developing safeguards capabilities for nuclear energy will certainly benefit from the advanced use of gamma-ray spectroscopy as well as the ability to model various reactor scenarios. There is currently a wide variety of nuclear data that could be used in computer modeling and gamma-ray spectroscopy analysis. The data can be discrepant (with varying uncertainties), and it may difficult for a modeler or software developer to determine the best nuclear data set for a particular situation. To use gamma-ray spectroscopy to determine the relative isotopic composition of nuclear materials, the gamma-ray energies and the branching ratios or intensities of the gamma-rays emitted from the nuclides in the material must be well known. A variety of computer simulation codes will be used during the development of the nuclear energy safeguards, and, to compare the results of various codes, it will be essential to have all the {gamma}-ray libraries agree. Assessing our nuclear data needs allows us to create a prioritized list of desired measurements, and provides uncertainties for energies and especially for branching intensities. Of interest are actinides, fission products, and activation products, and most particularly mixtures of all of these radioactive isotopes, including mixtures of actinides and other products. Recent work includes the development of new detectors with increased energy resolution, and studies of gamma-rays and their lines used in simulation codes. Because new detectors are being developed, there is an increased need for well known nuclear data for radioactive isotopes of some elements. Safeguards technology should take advantage of all types of gamma-ray detectors, including new super cooled detectors, germanium detectors and cadmium zinc telluride detectors. Mixed isotopes, particularly mixed actinides found in nuclear reactor streams can be especially challenging to identify. The super cooled detectors have a marked improvement in energy resolution, allowing the possibility of deconvolution of mixtures of gamma rays that was unavailable with high purity germanium detectors. Isotopic analysis codes require libraries of gamma rays. In certain situations, isotope identification can be made in the field, sometimes with a short turnaround time, depending on the choice of detector and software analysis package. Sodium iodide and high purity germanium detectors have been successfully used in field scenarios. The newer super cooled detectors offer dramatically increased resolution, but they have lower efficiency and so can require longer collection times. The different peak shapes require software development for the specific detector type and field application. Libraries can be tailored to specific scenarios; by eliminating isotopes that are certainly not present, the analysis time may be shortened and the accuracy may be increased. The intent of this project was to create one accurate library of gamma rays emitted from isotopes of interest to be used as a reliable reference in safeguards work. All simulation and spectroscopy analysis codes can draw upon this best library to improve accuracy and cross-code consistency. Modeling codes may include MCNP and COG. Gamma-ray spectroscopy analysis codes may include MGA, MGAU, U235 and FRAM. The intent is to give developers and users the tools to use in nuclear energy safeguards work. In this project, the library created was limited to a selection of actinide isotopes of immediate interest to reactor technology. These isotopes included {sup 234-238}U, {sup 237}Np, {sup 238-242}Pu, {sup 241,243}Am and {sup 244}Cm. These isotopes were examined, and the best of gamma-ray data, including line energies and relative strengths were selected.

  12. Single-Product Pricing via Robust Optimization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2006-01-30

    Demand uncertainty in revenue management has traditionally been addressed by ..... where the right-hand side is positive since demand decreases with price.

  13. Uncertainty analysis of steady state incident heat flux measurements in hydrocarbon fuel fires.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nakos, James Thomas

    2005-12-01

    The objective of this report is to develop uncertainty estimates for three heat flux measurement techniques used for the measurement of incident heat flux in a combined radiative and convective environment. This is related to the measurement of heat flux to objects placed inside hydrocarbon fuel (diesel, JP-8 jet fuel) fires, which is very difficult to make accurately (e.g., less than 10%). Three methods will be discussed: a Schmidt-Boelter heat flux gage; a calorimeter and inverse heat conduction method; and a thin plate and energy balance method. Steady state uncertainties were estimated for two types of fires (i.e., calm wind and high winds) at three times (early in the fire, late in the fire, and at an intermediate time). Results showed a large uncertainty for all three methods. Typical uncertainties for a Schmidt-Boelter gage ranged from {+-}23% for high wind fires to {+-}39% for low wind fires. For the calorimeter/inverse method the uncertainties were {+-}25% to {+-}40%. The thin plate/energy balance method the uncertainties ranged from {+-}21% to {+-}42%. The 23-39% uncertainties for the Schmidt-Boelter gage are much larger than the quoted uncertainty for a radiative only environment (i.e ., {+-}3%). This large difference is due to the convective contribution and because the gage sensitivities to radiative and convective environments are not equal. All these values are larger than desired, which suggests the need for improvements in heat flux measurements in fires.

  14. Users manual for the FORSS sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lucius, J.L.; Weisbin, C.R.; Marable, J.H.; Drischler, J.D.; Wright, R.Q.; White, J.E.

    1981-01-01

    FORSS is a code system used to study relationships between nuclear reaction cross sections, integral experiments, reactor performance parameter predictions and associated uncertainties. This report describes the computing environment and the modules currently used to implement FORSS Sensitivity and Uncertainty Methodology.

  15. Quasiparticle random phase approximation uncertainties and their correlations in the analysis of neutrinoless double beta decay

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Amand Faessler; G. L. Fogli; E. Lisi; V. Rodin; A. M. Rotunno; F. Simkovic

    2009-03-06

    The variances and covariances associated to the nuclear matrix elements (NME) of neutrinoless double beta decay are estimated within the quasiparticle random phase approximation (QRPA). It is shown that correlated NME uncertainties play an important role in the comparison of neutrinoless double beta decay rates for different nuclei, and that they are degenerate with the uncertainty in the reconstructed Majorana neutrino mass.

  16. Using Uncertainty Analysis to Guide the Development of Accelerated Stress Tests (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kempe, M.

    2014-03-01

    Extrapolation of accelerated testing to the long-term results expected in the field has uncertainty associated with the acceleration factors and the range of possible stresses in the field. When multiple stresses (such as temperature and humidity) can be used to increase the acceleration, the uncertainty may be reduced according to which stress factors are used to accelerate the degradation.

  17. Energy prices and energy intensity in China : a structural decomposition analysis and econometrics study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shi, Xiaoyu

    2006-01-01

    Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has ...

  18. Price discrimination and limits to arbitrage: An analysis of global LNG markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ritz, Robert A.

    2014-07-31

    Gas prices around the world vary widely despite being connected by international trade of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Some industry observers argue that major exporters have acted irrationally by not arbitraging prices. This is also difficult...

  19. An Analysis of Residential PV System Price Differences Between the United States and Germany

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seel, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    electricity prices over time (similar to the new reality in GermanyGermany $/W German system price $ 2011/W FiT $/kWh Electricityprice differences between Germany and the United States affect the associated electricity

  20. Energy prices and energy intensity in China : a structural decomposition analysis and econometric study

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shi, Xiaoyu, M.C.P. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2005-01-01

    Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., physical energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product ...

  1. Luxury condos : an analysis of sales price and hotel amenities in Manhattan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dolan, Amelia Jane

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this research project is to examine the market pricing behavior of condos with hotel amenities in the Manhattan condo market. To do this, data was compiled from multiple sources to track variations in price ...

  2. Price regulation for waste hauling franchises in California: an examination of how regulators regulate pricing and the effects of competition on regulated markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seltzer, Steven A.

    2011-01-01

    of Haulers on Price Ratios.. Table 14: Projected PriceCompared to Actual Price Ratios…………… Table 15: Analysis= ? + ß 1 LNHAUL + u TABLE 12 Price Differentials and the

  3. 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Program Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaics R&D

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McVeigh, J.; Lausten, M.; Eugeni, E.; Soni, A.

    2010-11-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) conducted a 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis to better assess its cost goals for concentrating solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) systems, and to potentially rebalance its R&D portfolio. This report details the methodology, schedule, and results of this technical risk and uncertainty analysis.

  4. An Analysis of the Effects of Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Residential Selling Prices in California.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cappers, Peter; Wiser, Ryan; Thayer, Mark; Hoen, Ben

    2011-04-12

    An increasing number of homes with existing photovoltaic (PV) energy systems have sold in the U.S., yet relatively little research exists that estimates the marginal impacts of those PV systems on the sales price. A clearer understanding of these effects might influence the decisions of homeowners, home buyers and PV home builders. This research analyzes a large dataset of California homes that sold from 2000 through mid-2009 with PV installed. Across a large number of hedonic and repeat sales model specifications and robustness tests, the analysis finds strong evidence that homes with PV systems sold for a premium over comparable homes without. The effects range, on average, from approximately $3.9 to $6.4 per installed watt (DC), with most models coalescing near $5.5/watt, which corresponds to a premium of approximately $17,000 for a 3,100 watt system. The research also shows that, as PV systems age, the premium enjoyed at the time of home sale decreases. Additionally, existing homes with PV systems are found to have commanded a larger sales price premium than new homes with similarly sized PV systems. Reasons for this discrepancy are suggested, yet further research is warranted in this area as well as a number of other areas that are highlighted.

  5. Learning Curve: Analysis of an Agent Pricing Strategy Under Varying Conditions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Greenwald, Amy

    . This paper addresses these issues by presenting a market simulator designed for analyzing agent pricing the Learning Curve Simulator, is designed for testing agent pricing strategies under varied market conditions], we analyzed the effectiveness of two different pricing strategies within a specific market scenario

  6. Identifying the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship: An Empirical Mode Decomposition Analysis of U.S. Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL

    2009-01-01

    This work applies the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to data on real quarterly oil price (West Texas Intermediate - WTI) and U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This relatively new method is adaptive and capable of handling non-linear and non-stationary data. Correlation analysis of the decomposition results was performed and examined for insights into the oil-macroeconomy relationship. Several components of this relationship were identified. However, the principal one is that the medium-run cyclical component of the oil price exerts a negative and exogenous influence on the main cyclical component of the GDP. This can be interpreted as the supply-driven or supply-shock component of the oil price-GDP relationship. In addition, weak correlations suggesting a lagging demand-driven, an expectations-driven, and a long-run supply-driven component of the relationship were also identified. Comparisons of these findings with significant oil supply disruption and recession dates were supportive. The study identified a number of lessons applicable to recent oil market events, including the eventuality of persistent economic and price declines following a long oil price run-up. In addition, it was found that oil-market related exogenous events are associated with short- to medium-run price implications regardless of whether they lead to actual supply disruptions.

  7. A joint analysis of Planck and BICEP2 B modes including dust polarization uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mortonson, Michael J.; Seljak, Uroš E-mail: useljak@berkeley.edu

    2014-10-01

    We analyze BICEP2 and Planck data using a model that includes CMB lensing, gravity waves, and polarized dust. Recently published Planck dust polarization maps have highlighted the difficulty of estimating the amount of dust polarization in low intensity regions, suggesting that the polarization fractions have considerable uncertainties and may be significantly higher than previous predictions. In this paper, we start by assuming nothing about the dust polarization except for the power spectrum shape, which we take to be C{sub l}{sup BB,dust} ? l{sup -2.42}. The resulting joint BICEP2+Planck analysis favors solutions without gravity waves, and the upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio is r<0.11, a slight improvement relative to the Planck analysis alone which gives r<0.13 (95% c.l.). The estimated amplitude of the dust polarization power spectrum agrees with expectations for this field based on both HI column density and Planck polarization measurements at 353 GHz in the BICEP2 field. Including the latter constraint on the dust spectrum amplitude in our analysis improves the limit further to r < 0.09, placing strong constraints on theories of inflation (e.g., models with r>0.14 are excluded with 99.5% confidence). We address the cross-correlation analysis of BICEP2 at 150 GHz with BICEP1 at 100 GHz as a test of foreground contamination. We find that the null hypothesis of dust and lensing with 0r= gives ? ?{sup 2} < 2 relative to the hypothesis of no dust, so the frequency analysis does not strongly favor either model over the other. We also discuss how more accurate dust polarization maps may improve our constraints. If the dust polarization is measured perfectly, the limit can reach r < 0.05 (or the corresponding detection significance if the observed dust signal plus the expected lensing signal is below the BICEP2 observations), but this degrades quickly to almost no improvement if the dust calibration error is 20% or larger or if the dust maps are not processed through the BICEP2 pipeline, inducing sampling variance noise.

  8. Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Guidance on uncertainty and use of experts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Budnitz, R.J.; Apostolakis, G.; Boore, D.M. [and others

    1997-04-01

    Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motion will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreement among experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of ground motion for design at a given site. In order to review the present state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) co-sponsored a project to provide methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project has been carried out by a seven-member Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) supported by a large number other experts. The SSHAC reviewed past studies, including the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the EPRI landmark PSHA studies of the 1980`s and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. The Committee`s most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are due to procedural rather than technical differences. Thus, in addition to providing a detailed documentation on state-of-the-art elements of a PSHA, this report provides a series of procedural recommendations. The role of experts is analyzed in detail. Two entities are formally defined-the Technical Integrator (TI) and the Technical Facilitator Integrator (TFI)--to account for the various levels of complexity in the technical issues and different levels of efforts needed in a given study.

  9. Treatment of Uncertainty in Long-Term Planning 1 Introduction

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCalley, James D.

    attribute to lie. For example, we could specify the price of natural gas in one of the following ways: #12 with time. #12;3 Figure 2: Specification of uncertainty in natural gas price Aside: We may also apply in this figure how (a) the expected price will increase with time, and (b) the uncertainty will also increase

  10. Electricity Generation and Emissions Reduction Decisions under Policy Uncertainty: A General Equilibrium Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morris, J.

    The electric power sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, will be a critical component of any policy the U.S. government pursues to confront climate change. In the context of uncertainty ...

  11. A simplified analysis of uncertainty propagation in inherently controlled ATWS events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wade, D.C.

    1987-01-01

    The quasi static approach can be used to provide useful insight concerning the propagation of uncertainties in the inherent response to ATWS events. At issue is how uncertainties in the reactivity coefficients and in the thermal-hydraulics and materials properties propagate to yield uncertainties in the asymptotic temperatures attained upon inherent shutdown. The basic notion to be quantified is that many of the same physical phenomena contribute to both the reactivity increase of power reduction and the reactivity decrease of core temperature rise. Since these reactivities cancel by definition, a good deal of uncertainty cancellation must also occur of necessity. For example, if the Doppler coefficient is overpredicted, too large a positive reactivity insertion is predicted upon power reduction and collapse of the ..delta..T across the fuel pin. However, too large a negative reactivity is also predicted upon the compensating increase in the isothermal core average temperature - which includes the fuel Doppler effect.

  12. Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Environmental Data and Models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Frey, H. Christopher

    . Performance, Emissions, and Cost of Combustion-Based NOx Controls for Wall and Tangential Furnace Coal ................................................................................................................... 20 3. VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN NOX EMISSION MEASUREMENTS.................. 29 3.1 GENERAL............................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 NOX REGULATIONS

  13. System level assessment of uncertainty in aviation environmental policy impact analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Liem, Rhea Patricia

    2010-01-01

    This thesis demonstrates the assessment of uncertainty of a simulation model at the system level, which takes into account the interaction between the modules that comprise the system. Results from this system level ...

  14. Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Events in the United States: An Uncertainty Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Monier, Erwan

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in ...

  15. Electricity generation and emissions reduction decisions under uncertainty : a general equilibrium analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Morris, Jennifer F. (Jennifer Faye)

    2013-01-01

    The electric power sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, will be a critical component of any policy the U.S. government pursues to confront climate change. In the context of uncertainty ...

  16. Automated Failure Effect Analysis for PHM of UAV Neal Snooke and Chris Price Clive Downes Carole Aspey

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Snooke, Neal

    1 Automated Failure Effect Analysis for PHM of UAV Neal Snooke and Chris Price Clive Downes Carole (UAVs). This work is part of a much wider initiative known as ASTRAEA, to develop the technologies needed to safely operate UAVs in civilian airspace. ASTRAEA is a £32 million initiative to research

  17. Japan's Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market: An Analysis of Residential System Prices (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    James, T.

    2014-03-01

    This presentation summarizes market and policy factors influencing residential solar photovoltaic system prices in Japan, and compares these factors to related developments in the United States.

  18. nCTEQ15 - Global analysis of nuclear parton distributions with uncertainties in the CTEQ framework

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kovarik, K; Jezo, T; Clark, D B; Keppel, C; Lyonnet, F; Morfin, J G; Olness, F I; Owens, J F; Schienbein, I; Yu, J Y

    2015-01-01

    We present the new nCTEQ15 set of nuclear parton distribution functions with uncertainties. This fit extends the CTEQ proton PDFs to include the nuclear dependence using data on nuclei all the way up to 208^Pb. The uncertainties are determined using the Hessian method with an optimal rescaling of the eigenvectors to accurately represent the uncertainties for the chosen tolerance criteria. In addition to the Deep Inelastic Scattering (DIS) and Drell-Yan (DY) processes, we also include inclusive pion production data from RHIC to help constrain the nuclear gluon PDF. Furthermore, we investigate the correlation of the data sets with specific nPDF flavor components, and asses the impact of individual experiments. We also provide comparisons of the nCTEQ15 set with recent fits from other groups.

  19. Uncertainty Analysis of Spectral Irradiance Reference Standards Used for NREL Calibrations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, A.; Andreas, A.; Reda, I.; Campanelli, M.; Stoffel, T.

    2013-05-01

    Spectral irradiance produced by lamp standards such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) FEL-type tungsten halogen lamps are used to calibrate spectroradiometers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Spectroradiometers are often used to characterize spectral irradiance of solar simulators, which in turn are used to characterize photovoltaic device performance, e.g., power output and spectral response. Therefore, quantifying the calibration uncertainty of spectroradiometers is critical to understanding photovoltaic system performance. In this study, we attempted to reproduce the NIST-reported input variables, including the calibration uncertainty in spectral irradiance for a standard NIST lamp, and quantify uncertainty for measurement setup at the Optical Metrology Laboratory at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

  20. Characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

    2010-10-01

    The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, illustrates the conceptual structure of risk assessments for complex systems. The 2008 YM PA is based on the following three conceptual entities: a probability space that characterizes aleatory uncertainty; a function that predicts consequences for individual elements of the sample space for aleatory uncertainty; and a probability space that characterizes epistemic uncertainty. These entities and their use in the characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are described and illustrated with results from the 2008 YM PA.

  1. The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis: Description of the Benchmark Test Cases and Phases

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frederik Reitsma; Gerhard Strydom; Bismark Tyobeka; Kostadin Ivanov

    2012-10-01

    The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The uncertainties in the HTR analysis tools are today typically assessed with sensitivity analysis and then a few important input uncertainties (typically based on a PIRT process) are varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, one wish to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Finally, there is also a renewed focus in supplying reliable covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) that can then be used in uncertainty methods. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are therefore becoming an essential component of any significant effort in data and simulation improvement. In order to address uncertainty in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling early in 2012. The project is built on the experience of the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity, but focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements. Two benchmark problems were defined with the prismatic type design represented by the MHTGR-350 design from General Atomics (GA) while a 250 MW modular pebble bed design, similar to the INET (China) and indirect-cycle PBMR (South Africa) designs are also included. In the paper more detail on the benchmark cases, the different specific phases and tasks and the latest status and plans are presented.

  2. Volatility of Power Grids under Real-Time Pricing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roozbehani, Mardavij; Mitter, Sanjoy K

    2011-01-01

    The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale electricity prices to the end consumers, and is shown to create a closed-loop feedback system between the physical layer and the market layer of the power system. In the absence of a carefully designed control law, such direct feedback between the two layers could increase volatility and lower the system's robustness to uncertainty in demand and generation. A new notion of generalized price-elasticity is introduced, and it is shown that price volatility can be characterized in terms of the system's maximal relative price elasticity, defined as the maximal ratio of the generalized price-elasticity of consumers to that of the producers. As this ratio increases, the system becomes more volatile, and eventually, unstable. As new demand response technolo...

  3. Why Do Motor Gasoline Prices Vary Regionally? California Case Study

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    Analysis of the difference between the retail gasoline prices in California and the average U.S. retail prices.

  4. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  5. Mapping and uncertainty analysis of energy and pitch angle phase space in the DIII-D fast ion loss detector

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pace, D. C. Fisher, R. K.; Van Zeeland, M. A.; Pipes, R.

    2014-11-15

    New phase space mapping and uncertainty analysis of energetic ion loss data in the DIII-D tokamak provides experimental results that serve as valuable constraints in first-principles simulations of energetic ion transport. Beam ion losses are measured by the fast ion loss detector (FILD) diagnostic system consisting of two magnetic spectrometers placed independently along the outer wall. Monte Carlo simulations of mono-energetic and single-pitch ions reaching the FILDs are used to determine the expected uncertainty in the measurements. Modeling shows that the variation in gyrophase of 80 keV beam ions at the FILD aperture can produce an apparent measured energy signature spanning across 50-140 keV. These calculations compare favorably with experiments in which neutral beam prompt loss provides a well known energy and pitch distribution.

  6. Uncertainty Analysis of Melting and Resolidification of Gold Film Irradiated by Nano- to Femtosecond Lasers Using Stochastic Method

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Afrin, Nazia; Chen, J K

    2015-01-01

    A sample-based stochastic model is presented to investigate the effects of uncertainties of various input parameters, including laser fluence, laser pulse duration, thermal conductivity constants for electron, and electron-lattice coupling factor, on solid-liquid phase change of gold film under nano- to femtosecond laser irradiation. Rapid melting and resolidification of a free standing gold film subject to nano- to femtosecond laser are simulated using a two-temperature model incorporated with the interfacial tracking method. The interfacial velocity and temperature are obtained by solving the energy equation in terms of volumetric enthalpy for control volume. The convergence of variance (COV) is used to characterize the variability of the input parameters, and the interquartile range (IQR) is used to calculate the uncertainty of the output parameters. The IQR analysis shows that the laser fluence and the electron-lattice coupling factor have the strongest influences on the interfacial location, velocity, an...

  7. Electricity Prices in a Competitive Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1997-01-01

    Presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated cost-of-service pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers?

  8. MODELS FOR ELECTRICITY PRICES Avishka Raghoonundun

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fournier, John J.F.

    MODELS FOR ELECTRICITY PRICES by Avishka Raghoonundun BSc (Hons),University of Mauritius,2007 M markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices. Electricity, as a commodity, differs from-storability restriction, the most con- spicuous one is the presence of large spikes in electricity prices. Another outcome

  9. Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis :

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adams, Brian M.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Eldred, Michael S.; Jakeman, John Davis; Swiler, Laura Painton; Stephens, John Adam; Vigil, Dena M.; Wildey, Timothy Michael; Bohnhoff, William J.; Eddy, John P.; Hu, Kenneth T.; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bauman, Lara E; Hough, Patricia Diane

    2014-05-01

    The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

  10. Addendum to: QRPA uncertainties and their correlations in the analysis of neutrinoless double beta decay

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Amand Faessler; G. L. Fogli; E. Lisi; V. Rodin; A. M. Rotunno; F. Simkovic

    2013-01-07

    In a previous article [Phys. Rev. D 79, 053001 (2009)] we estimated the correlated uncertainties associated to the nuclear matrix elements (NME) of neutrinoless double beta decay (0 nu beta beta) within the quasiparticle random phase approximation (QRPA). Such estimates encompass recent independent calculations of NMEs, and can thus still provide a fair representation of the nuclear model uncertainties. In this context, we compare the claim of 0 nu beta beta decay in Ge-76 with recent negative results in Xe-136 and in other nuclei, and we infer the lifetime ranges allowed or excluded at 90% C.L. We also highlight some issues that should be addressed in order to properly compare and combine results coming from different 0 nu beta beta decay candidate nuclei.

  11. Statistical emulation of a tsunami model for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sarri, A; Dias, F

    2012-01-01

    Due to the catastrophic consequences of tsunamis, early warnings need to be issued quickly in order to mitigate the hazard. Additionally, there is a need to represent the uncertainty in the predictions of tsunami characteristics corresponding to the uncertain trigger features (e.g. either position, shape and speed of a landslide, or sea floor deformation associated with an earthquake). Unfortunately, computer models are expensive to run. This leads to significant delays in predictions and makes the uncertainty quantification impractical. Statistical emulators run almost instantaneously and may represent well the outputs of the computer model. In this paper, we use the Outer Product Emulator to build a fast statistical surrogate of a landslide-generated tsunami computer model. This Bayesian framework enables us to build the emulator by combining prior knowledge of the computer model properties with a few carefully chosen model evaluations. The good performance of the emulator is validated using the Leave-One-O...

  12. Fuel cycle cost uncertainty from nuclear fuel cycle comparison

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Li, J.; McNelis, D. [Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (United States); Yim, M.S. [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-07-01

    This paper examined the uncertainty in fuel cycle cost (FCC) calculation by considering both model and parameter uncertainty. Four different fuel cycle options were compared in the analysis including the once-through cycle (OT), the DUPIC cycle, the MOX cycle and a closed fuel cycle with fast reactors (FR). The model uncertainty was addressed by using three different FCC modeling approaches with and without the time value of money consideration. The relative ratios of FCC in comparison to OT did not change much by using different modeling approaches. This observation was consistent with the results of the sensitivity study for the discount rate. Two different sets of data with uncertainty range of unit costs were used to address the parameter uncertainty of the FCC calculation. The sensitivity study showed that the dominating contributor to the total variance of FCC is the uranium price. In general, the FCC of OT was found to be the lowest followed by FR, MOX, and DUPIC. But depending on the uranium price, the FR cycle was found to have lower FCC over OT. The reprocessing cost was also found to have a major impact on FCC.

  13. Considerations for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and data assimilation for grid-to-rod fretting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Michael Pernice

    2012-10-01

    Grid-to-rod fretting is the leading cause of fuel failures in pressurized water reactors, and is one of the challenge problems being addressed by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors to guide its efforts to develop a virtual reactor environment. Prior and current efforts in modeling and simulation of grid-to-rod fretting are discussed. Sources of uncertainty in grid-to-rod fretting are also described.

  14. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  15. Uncertainty induced by QCD coupling in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton densities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lai, Hung-Liang; Li, Zhao; Nadolsky, Pavel; Pumplin, Jon; Stump, Daniel; Yuan, C -P

    2010-01-01

    We examine the dependence of parton distribution functions (PDFs) on the value of the QCD coupling strength $\\alpha_{s}(M_{Z})$. We explain a simple method that is rigorously valid in the quadratic approximation normally applied in PDF fitting, and fully reproduces the correlated dependence of theoretical cross sections on $\\alpha_s$ and PDF parameters. This method is based on a statistical relation that allows one to add the uncertainty produced by $\\alpha_s$, computed with some special PDF sets, in quadrature with the PDF uncertainty obtained for the fixed $\\alpha_s$ value (such as the CTEQ6.6 PDF set). A series of four CTEQ6.6AS PDFs realizing this approach, for $\\alpha_s$ values in the interval $0.116 \\leq \\alpha_{s}(M_{Z}) \\leq 0.120$, is presented. Using these PDFs, the combined $\\alpha_{s}$ and PDF uncertainty is assessed for theoretical predictions at the Tevatron and LHC colliders.

  16. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of atmospheric ozone photochemistry models. Final report, September 30, 1993--December 31, 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, G.P.

    1999-03-01

    The author has examined the kinetic reliability of ozone model predictions by computing direct first-order sensitivities of model species concentrations to input parameters: S{sub ij} = [dC{sub i}/C{sub i}]/[dk{sub j}/k{sub j}], where C{sub i} is the abundance of species i (e.g., ozone) and k{sub j} is the rate constant of step j (reaction, photolysis, or transport), for localized boxes from the LLNL 2-D diurnally averaged atmospheric model. An ozone sensitivity survey of boxes at altitudes of 10--55 km, 2--62N latitude, for spring, equinox, and winter is presented. Ozone sensitivities are used to evaluate the response of model predictions of ozone to input rate coefficient changes, to propagate laboratory rate uncertainties through the model, and to select processes and regions suited to more precise measurements. By including the local chemical feedbacks, the sensitivities quantify the important roles of oxygen and ozone photolysis, transport from the tropics, and the relation of key catalytic steps and cycles in regulating stratospheric ozone as a function of altitude, latitude, and season. A sensitivity-uncertainty analysis uses the sensitivity coefficients to propagate laboratory error bars in input photochemical parameters and estimate the net model uncertainties of predicted ozone in isolated boxes; it was applied to potential problems in the upper stratospheric ozone budget, and also highlights superior regions for model validation.

  17. Incorporating uncertainty into electric utility projections and decisions

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper focuses on how electric utility companies can respond in their decision making to uncertain variables. Here we take a mean- variance type of approach. The mean'' value is an expected cost, on a discounted value basis. We assume that management has risk preferences incorporating a tradeoff between the mean and variance in the utility's net income. Decisions that utilities are faced with can be classified into two types: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante decisions need to be made prior to the uncertainty being revealed and the ex post decision can be postponed until after the uncertainty is revealed. Intuitively, we can say that the ex ante decisions provide a hedge against the uncertainties and the ex post decisions allow the negative outcomes of uncertain variables to be partially mitigated, dampening the losses. An example of an ex post decision is how the system is operated i.e., unit dispatch, and in some cases switching among types of fuels, say with different sulfur contents. For example, if gas prices go up, natural gas combined cycle units are likely to be dispatched at lower capacity factors. If SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices go up, a utility may seek to switch into a lower sulfur coal. Here we assume that regulated electric utilities do have some incentive to lower revenue requirements and hence an incentive to lower the electric rates needed for the utility to break even, thereby earning a fair return on invested capital. This paper presents the general approach first, including applications to capacity expansion and system dispatch. Then a case study is presented focusing on the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments including SO{sub 2} emissions abatement and banking of allowances under uncertainty. It is concluded that the emission banking decisions should not be made in isolation but rather all the uncertainties in demand, fuel prices, technology performance etc., should be included in the uncertainty analysis affecting emission banking.

  18. Systematic uncertainties associated with the cosmological analysis of the first Pan-STARRS1 type Ia supernova sample

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Scolnic, D.; Riess, A.; Brout, D.; Rodney, S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Rest, A. [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Huber, M. E.; Tonry, J. L. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Foley, R. J.; Chornock, R.; Berger, E.; Soderberg, A. M.; Stubbs, C. W.; Kirshner, R. P.; Challis, P.; Czekala, I.; Drout, M. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Narayan, G. [Department of Physics, Harvard University, 17 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Smartt, S. J.; Botticella, M. T. [Astrophysics Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Physics, Queens University Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN (United Kingdom); Schlafly, E. [Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Konigstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); and others

    2014-11-01

    We probe the systematic uncertainties from the 113 Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) in the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) sample along with 197 SN Ia from a combination of low-redshift surveys. The companion paper by Rest et al. describes the photometric measurements and cosmological inferences from the PS1 sample. The largest systematic uncertainty stems from the photometric calibration of the PS1 and low-z samples. We increase the sample of observed Calspec standards from 7 to 10 used to define the PS1 calibration system. The PS1 and SDSS-II calibration systems are compared and discrepancies up to ?0.02 mag are recovered. We find uncertainties in the proper way to treat intrinsic colors and reddening produce differences in the recovered value of w up to 3%. We estimate masses of host galaxies of PS1 supernovae and detect an insignificant difference in distance residuals of the full sample of 0.037 ± 0.031 mag for host galaxies with high and low masses. Assuming flatness and including systematic uncertainties in our analysis of only SNe measurements, we find w =?1.120{sub ?0.206}{sup +0.360}(Stat){sub ?0.291}{sup +0.269}(Sys). With additional constraints from Baryon acoustic oscillation, cosmic microwave background (CMB) (Planck) and H {sub 0} measurements, we find w=?1.166{sub ?0.069}{sup +0.072} and ?{sub m}=0.280{sub ?0.012}{sup +0.013} (statistical and systematic errors added in quadrature). The significance of the inconsistency with w = –1 depends on whether we use Planck or Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe measurements of the CMB: w{sub BAO+H0+SN+WMAP}=?1.124{sub ?0.065}{sup +0.083}.

  19. Multi-criteria analysis : an alternative approach for the evaluation of road pricing strategies

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ensor, Jeffrey D. (Jeffrey Douglas)

    2005-01-01

    Interest in road pricing among political leaders, transportation analysts, academics, and government agencies has increased in recent years. There are myriad reasons for this newfound consideration, but the deployment of ...

  20. Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis- 2010

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Report describes the 2010 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing life-cycle cost analyses of energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects in federal facilities.

  1. Analysis of sampling plan options for tank 16H from the perspective of statistical uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shine, E. P.

    2013-02-28

    This report develops a concentration variability model for Tank 16H in order to compare candidate sampling plans for assessing the concentrations of analytes in the residual material in the annulus and on the floor of the primary vessel. A concentration variability model is used to compare candidate sampling plans based on the expected upper 95% confidence limit (UCL95) for the mean. The result is expressed as a rank order of candidate sampling plans from lowest to highest expected UCL95, with the lowest being the most desirable from an uncertainty perspective.

  2. nCTEQ15 - Global analysis of nuclear parton distributions with uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Kusina, A; Jezo, T; Clark, D B; Keppel, C; Lyonnet, F; Morfin, J G; Olness, F I; Owens, J F; Schienbein, I; Yu, J Y

    2015-01-01

    We present the first official release of the nCTEQ nuclear parton distribution functions with errors. The main addition to the previous nCTEQ PDFs is the introduction of PDF uncertainties based on the Hessian method. Another important addition is the inclusion of pion production data from RHIC that give us a handle on constraining the gluon PDF. This contribution summarizes our results from arXiv:1509.00792 and concentrates on the comparison with other groups providing nuclear parton distributions.

  3. A domain adaptive stochastic collocation approach for analysis of MEMS under uncertainties

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Agarwal, Nitin [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 405 N. Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Aluru, N.R. [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 405 N. Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)], E-mail: aluru@uiuc.edu

    2009-11-01

    This work proposes a domain adaptive stochastic collocation approach for uncertainty quantification, suitable for effective handling of discontinuities or sharp variations in the random domain. The basic idea of the proposed methodology is to adaptively decompose the random domain into subdomains. Within each subdomain, a sparse grid interpolant is constructed using the classical Smolyak construction [S. Smolyak, Quadrature and interpolation formulas for tensor products of certain classes of functions, Soviet Math. Dokl. 4 (1963) 240-243], to approximate the stochastic solution locally. The adaptive strategy is governed by the hierarchical surpluses, which are computed as part of the interpolation procedure. These hierarchical surpluses then serve as an error indicator for each subdomain, and lead to subdivision whenever it becomes greater than a threshold value. The hierarchical surpluses also provide information about the more important dimensions, and accordingly the random elements can be split along those dimensions. The proposed adaptive approach is employed to quantify the effect of uncertainty in input parameters on the performance of micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS). Specifically, we study the effect of uncertain material properties and geometrical parameters on the pull-in behavior and actuation properties of a MEMS switch. Using the adaptive approach, we resolve the pull-in instability in MEMS switches. The results from the proposed approach are verified using Monte Carlo simulations and it is demonstrated that it computes the required statistics effectively.

  4. OECD/NEA expert group on uncertainty analysis for criticality safety assessment: Results of benchmark on sensitivity calculation (phase III)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ivanova, T.; Laville, C. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire IRSN, BP 17, 92262 Fontenay aux Roses (France); Dyrda, J. [Atomic Weapons Establishment AWE, Aldermaston, Reading, RG7 4PR (United Kingdom); Mennerdahl, D. [E Mennerdahl Systems EMS, Starvaegen 12, 18357 Taeby (Sweden); Golovko, Y.; Raskach, K.; Tsiboulia, A. [Inst. for Physics and Power Engineering IPPE, 1, Bondarenko sq., 249033 Obninsk (Russian Federation); Lee, G. S.; Woo, S. W. [Korea Inst. of Nuclear Safety KINS, 62 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-338 (Korea, Republic of); Bidaud, A.; Sabouri, P. [Laboratoire de Physique Subatomique et de Cosmologie LPSC, CNRS-IN2P3/UJF/INPG, Grenoble (France); Patel, A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States); Bledsoe, K.; Rearden, B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ORNL, M.S. 6170, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Gulliford, J.; Michel-Sendis, F. [OECD/NEA, 12, Bd des Iles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

    2012-07-01

    The sensitivities of the k{sub eff} eigenvalue to neutron cross sections have become commonly used in similarity studies and as part of the validation algorithm for criticality safety assessments. To test calculations of the sensitivity coefficients, a benchmark study (Phase III) has been established by the OECD-NEA/WPNCS/EG UACSA (Expert Group on Uncertainty Analysis for Criticality Safety Assessment). This paper presents some sensitivity results generated by the benchmark participants using various computational tools based upon different computational methods: SCALE/TSUNAMI-3D and -1D, MONK, APOLLO2-MORET 5, DRAGON-SUSD3D and MMKKENO. The study demonstrates the performance of the tools. It also illustrates how model simplifications impact the sensitivity results and demonstrates the importance of 'implicit' (self-shielding) sensitivities. This work has been a useful step towards verification of the existing and developed sensitivity analysis methods. (authors)

  5. Timing analysis of logic=level digital circuits using uncertainty intervals 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bell, Joshua Asher

    1996-01-01

    Timing Analysis of Logic-Level Digital Circuits Using Competitive design of modem digital circuits requires high performance at reduced cost and time-to-market. Timing analysis is increasingly used to deal with the more aggressive timing constraints...

  6. REVIEW OF MECHANISTIC UNDERSTANDING AND MODELING AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR PREDICTING CEMENTITIOUS BARRIER PERFORMANCE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Langton, C.; Kosson, D.

    2009-11-30

    Cementitious barriers for nuclear applications are one of the primary controls for preventing or limiting radionuclide release into the environment. At the present time, performance and risk assessments do not fully incorporate the effectiveness of engineered barriers because the processes that influence performance are coupled and complicated. Better understanding the behavior of cementitious barriers is necessary to evaluate and improve the design of materials and structures used for radioactive waste containment, life extension of current nuclear facilities, and design of future nuclear facilities, including those needed for nuclear fuel storage and processing, nuclear power production and waste management. The focus of the Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) literature review is to document the current level of knowledge with respect to: (1) mechanisms and processes that directly influence the performance of cementitious materials (2) methodologies for modeling the performance of these mechanisms and processes and (3) approaches to addressing and quantifying uncertainties associated with performance predictions. This will serve as an important reference document for the professional community responsible for the design and performance assessment of cementitious materials in nuclear applications. This review also provides a multi-disciplinary foundation for identification, research, development and demonstration of improvements in conceptual understanding, measurements and performance modeling that would be lead to significant reductions in the uncertainties and improved confidence in the estimating the long-term performance of cementitious materials in nuclear applications. This report identifies: (1) technology gaps that may be filled by the CBP project and also (2) information and computational methods that are in currently being applied in related fields but have not yet been incorporated into performance assessments of cementitious barriers. The various chapters contain both a description of the mechanism or and a discussion of the current approaches to modeling the phenomena.

  7. CO? price impact on Dell's supply chain : a framework for carbon footprint economic analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Colón-Jiménez, Ely X

    2010-01-01

    The principal scope of this project is to design, analyze and report a case study of how to effectively account for the highly likely scenario of a CO2 price policy (cap-and-trade or tax) with regard to Dell's product and ...

  8. Analysis of Future Prices and Markets for High Temperature Superconductors ENERGY SAVINGS IN HTS DEVICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Category HTS tape required (km)* Energy Saved, % of total energy entering device Cryogenic capital cost) and prices, the capital cost is roughly $60 per watt removed from the cold end. Hopefully, that capital cost of each device. The incremental capital cost is the cost over and above that of cryogenics and HTS wire

  9. Sustainability impacts of car road pricing: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Austria

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Keeling, Stephen L.

    2006 Nationwide car road pricing schemes are discussed across Europe. We analyse the impacts important since the 1970s. Transport is now responsible for at least a quarter of world primary energy use, in the economist's jargon, "second-best" (see, e.g., Calthrop and Proost, 1998; Nash et al., 2001; Ubbels et al

  10. Quantitative analysis of real-time systems using priced timed automata

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Doyen, Laurent

    Aalborg Universitet 9220 Aalborg � ­ Denmark The problems of time-dependent behavior in general- tional key quantities include energy and mem- ory consumption, in communication networks required band for a given production are crucial quantities. The extended notion of priced or weighted timed automata has

  11. Signal discovery, limits, and uncertainties with sparse on/off measurements: an objective bayesian analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Knoetig, Max L., E-mail: mknoetig@phys.ethz.ch [Institute for Particle Physics, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2014-08-01

    For decades researchers have studied the On/Off counting problem where a measured rate consists of two parts. One part is due to a signal process and the other is due to a background process, the magnitudes for both of which are unknown. While most frequentist methods are adequate for large number counts, they cannot be applied to sparse data. Here, I want to present a new objective Bayesian solution that only depends on three parameters: the number of events in the signal region, the number of events in the background region, and the ratio of the exposure for both regions. First, the probability of the counts only being due to background is derived analytically. Second, the marginalized posterior for the signal parameter is also derived analytically. With this two-step approach it is easy to calculate the signal's significance, strength, uncertainty, or upper limit in a unified way. This approach is valid without restrictions for any number count, including zero, and may be widely applied in particle physics, cosmic-ray physics, and high-energy astrophysics. In order to demonstrate the performance of this approach, I apply the method to gamma-ray burst data.

  12. Columbia University flow instability experimental program: Volume 2. Single tube uniformly heated tests -- Part 2: Uncertainty analysis and data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dougherty, T.; Maciuca, C.; McAssey, E.V. Jr.; Reddy, D.G.; Yang, B.W.

    1990-05-01

    In June 1988, Savannah River Laboratory requested that the Heat Transfer Research Facility modify the flow excursion program, which had been in progress since November 1987, to include testing of single tubes in vertical down-flow over a range of length to diameter (L/D) ratios of 100 to 500. The impetus for the request was the desire to obtain experimental data as quickly as possible for code development work. In July 1988, HTRF submitted a proposal to SRL indicating that by modifying a facility already under construction the data could be obtained within three to four months. In January 1990, HTFR issued report CU-HTRF-T4, part 1. This report contained the technical discussion of the results from the single tube uniformly heated tests. The present report is part 2 of CU-HTRF-T4 which contains further discussion of the uncertainty analysis and the complete set of data.

  13. Measuring and Explaining Electricity Price Changes in Restructured States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Fagan, Mark L.

    2006-06-15

    An effort to determine the effect of restructuring on prices finds that, on average, prices for industrial customers in restructured states were lower, relative to predicted prices, than prices for industrial customers in non-restructured states. This preliminary analysis also finds that these price changes are explained primarily by high pre-restructuring prices, not whether or not a state restructured. (author)

  14. ACFAC: a cash flow analysis code for estimating product price from an industrial operation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Delene, J.G.

    1980-04-01

    A computer code is presented which uses a discountted cash flow methodology to obtain an average product price for an industtrial process. The general discounted cash flow method is discussed. Special code options include multiple treatments of interest during construction and other preoperational costs, investment tax credits, and different methods for tax depreciation of capital assets. Two options for allocating the cost of plant decommissioning are available. The FORTRAN code listing and the computer output for a sample problem are included.

  15. Use of Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in the Design of Reactor Physics and Criticality Benchmark Experiments for Advanced Nuclear Fuel

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rearden, B.T. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (United States); Anderson, W.J. [Framatome ANP, Inc. (France); Harms, G.A. [Sandia National Laboratories (United States)

    2005-08-15

    Framatome ANP, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the University of Florida are cooperating on the U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) project 2001-0124 to design, assemble, execute, analyze, and document a series of critical experiments to validate reactor physics and criticality safety codes for the analysis of commercial power reactor fuels consisting of UO{sub 2} with {sup 235}U enrichments {>=}5 wt%. The experiments will be conducted at the SNL Pulsed Reactor Facility.Framatome ANP and SNL produced two series of conceptual experiment designs based on typical parameters, such as fuel-to-moderator ratios, that meet the programmatic requirements of this project within the given restraints on available materials and facilities. ORNL used the Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) to assess, from a detailed physics-based perspective, the similarity of the experiment designs to the commercial systems they are intended to validate. Based on the results of the TSUNAMI analysis, one series of experiments was found to be preferable to the other and will provide significant new data for the validation of reactor physics and criticality safety codes.

  16. Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty ·Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty ·When the nature of the test precludes

  17. Cheese Prices 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schwart Jr., Robert B.; Anderson, David P.; Knutson, Ronald D.

    2003-08-25

    Cheese prices are derived from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News, the National Agricultural Statistics Service, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This publication explains the process of cheese pricing. It includes information...

  18. Milk Pricing 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anderson, David P.; Haigh, Michael; Stockton, Matthew; Schwart Jr., Robert B.

    2001-09-10

    This publication discusses the federal orders that govern the marketing of milk. The production location and form of the milk product affect the way it is priced. The different classes of milk and their prices are explained in detail....

  19. Class Pricing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wernerfelt, Birger

    2008-01-15

    A contract with K-class pricing divides a large set of goods or services into K classes and assigns a single price to any element of a class. Class pricing can be efficient when several different versions may be traded and ...

  20. CASL L1 Milestone report : CASL.P4.01, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for CIPS with VIPRE-W and BOA.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sung, Yixing (Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, Cranberry Township, PA); Adams, Brian M.; Secker, Jeffrey R. (Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, Cranberry Township, PA)

    2011-12-01

    The CASL Level 1 Milestone CASL.P4.01, successfully completed in December 2011, aimed to 'conduct, using methodologies integrated into VERA, a detailed sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of a crud-relevant problem with baseline VERA capabilities (ANC/VIPRE-W/BOA).' The VUQ focus area led this effort, in partnership with AMA, and with support from VRI. DAKOTA was coupled to existing VIPRE-W thermal-hydraulics and BOA crud/boron deposit simulations representing a pressurized water reactor (PWR) that previously experienced crud-induced power shift (CIPS). This work supports understanding of CIPS by exploring the sensitivity and uncertainty in BOA outputs with respect to uncertain operating and model parameters. This report summarizes work coupling the software tools, characterizing uncertainties, and analyzing the results of iterative sensitivity and uncertainty studies. These studies focused on sensitivity and uncertainty of CIPS indicators calculated by the current version of the BOA code used in the industry. Challenges with this kind of analysis are identified to inform follow-on research goals and VERA development targeting crud-related challenge problems.

  1. An Analysis of the Effects of Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in California

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hoen, Ben; Cappers, Peter; Wiser, Ryan; Thayer, Mark

    2011-04-19

    An increasing number of homes in the U.S. have sold with photovoltaic (PV) energy systems installed at the time of sale, yet relatively little research exists that estimates the marginal impacts of those PV systems on home sale prices. A clearer understanding of these possible impacts might influence the decisions of homeowners considering the installation of a PV system, homebuyers considering the purchase of a home with PV already installed, and new home builders considering including PV as an optional or standard product on their homes. This research analyzes a large dataset of California homes that sold from 2000 through mid-2009 with PV installed. It finds strong evidence that homes with PV systems sold for a premium over comparable homes without PV systems during this time frame. Estimates for this premium expressed in dollars per watt of installed PV range, on average, from roughly $4 to $5.5/watt across a large number of hedonic and repeat sales model specifications and robustness tests. When expressed as a ratio of the sales price premium of PV to estimated annual energy cost savings associated with PV, an average ratio of 14:1 to 19:1 can be calculated; these results are consistent with those of the more-extensive existing literature on the impact of energy efficiency on sales prices. When the data are split among new and existing homes, however, PV system premiums are markedly affected. New homes with PV show premiums of $2.3-2.6/watt, while existing homes with PV show premiums of more than $6/watt. Reasons for this discrepancy are suggested, yet further research is warranted. A number of other areas where future research would be useful are also highlighted.

  2. Edgeworth Price Cycles, Cost-based Pricing and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline Markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Noel, Michael

    2004-01-01

    Robbery, An Analysis of the Gasoline Crisis”, Bloomington:Dynamic Pricing in Retail gasoline Markets”, RAND Journal ofR. Gilbert. “Do Gasoline Markets Respond Asymmetrically to

  3. DAKOTA, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis:version 4.0 reference manual

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Griffin, Joshua D. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Eldred, Michael Scott; Martinez-Canales, Monica L.; Watson, Jean-Paul; Kolda, Tamara Gibson; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Williams, Pamela J.; Hough, Patricia Diane; Gay, David M.; Dunlavy, Daniel M.; Eddy, John P.; Hart, William Eugene; Guinta, Anthony A.; Brown, Shannon L.

    2006-10-01

    The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a reference manual for the commands specification for the DAKOTA software, providing input overviews, option descriptions, and example specifications.

  4. Tackling the Load Uncertainty Challenges for Energy Consumption Scheduling in Smart Grid

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mohsenian-Rad, Hamed

    real-time residential load management algorithm that takes into account load uncertainty in order estimates of the future load demand. Moreover, we consider real- time pricing combined with inclining block at time slot t t(·) Price function at time slot t mt Price parameter at time slot t nt Price parameter

  5. Development, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification of high-fidelity arctic sea ice models.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peterson, Kara J.; Bochev, Pavel Blagoveston; Paskaleva, Biliana S.

    2010-09-01

    Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and due to feedback effects the Arctic ice cover is changing rapidly. Predictive mathematical models are of paramount importance for accurate estimates of the future ice trajectory. However, the sea ice components of Global Climate Models (GCMs) vary significantly in their prediction of the future state of Arctic sea ice and have generally underestimated the rate of decline in minimum sea ice extent seen over the past thirty years. One of the contributing factors to this variability is the sensitivity of the sea ice to model physical parameters. A new sea ice model that has the potential to improve sea ice predictions incorporates an anisotropic elastic-decohesive rheology and dynamics solved using the material-point method (MPM), which combines Lagrangian particles for advection with a background grid for gradient computations. We evaluate the variability of the Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE code and the MPM sea ice code for a single year simulation of the Arctic basin using consistent ocean and atmospheric forcing. Sensitivities of ice volume, ice area, ice extent, root mean square (RMS) ice speed, central Arctic ice thickness, and central Arctic ice speed with respect to ten different dynamic and thermodynamic parameters are evaluated both individually and in combination using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA). We find similar responses for the two codes and some interesting seasonal variability in the strength of the parameters on the solution.

  6. Uncertainty Analysis of Runoff Simulations and Parameter Identifiability in the Community Land Model – Evidence from MOPEX Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Huang, Maoyi; Hou, Zhangshuan; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ke, Yinghai; Liu, Ying; Fang, Zhufeng; Sun, Yu

    2013-12-01

    With the emergence of earth system models as important tools for understanding and predicting climate change and implications to mitigation and adaptation, it has become increasingly important to assess the fidelity of the land component within earth system models to capture realistic hydrological processes and their response to the changing climate and quantify the associated uncertainties. This study investigates the sensitivity of runoff simulations to major hydrologic parameters in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) by integrating CLM4 with a stochastic exploratory sensitivity analysis framework at 20 selected watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) spanning a wide range of climate and site conditions. We found that for runoff simulations, the most significant parameters are those related to the subsurface runoff parameterizations. Soil texture related parameters and surface runoff parameters are of secondary significance. Moreover, climate and soil conditions play important roles in the parameter sensitivity. In general, site conditions within water-limited hydrologic regimes and with finer soil texture result in stronger sensitivity of output variables, such as runoff and its surface and subsurface components, to the input parameters in CLM4. This study demonstrated the feasibility of parameter inversion for CLM4 using streamflow observations to improve runoff simulations. By ranking the significance of the input parameters, we showed that the parameter set dimensionality could be reduced for CLM4 parameter calibration under different hydrologic and climatic regimes so that the inverse problem is less ill posed.

  7. Uncertainties on $\\alpha_S$ in the MMHT2014 global PDF analysis and implications for SM predictions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Harland-Lang, L A; Motylinski, P; Thorne, R S

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the uncertainty in the value of the strong coupling $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ when allowing it to be a free parameter in the recent MMHT global analyses of deep-inelastic and related hard scattering data that was undertaken to determine the parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton. The analysis uses the standard framework of leading twist fixed--order collinear factorisation in the ${\\overline {\\rm MS}}$ scheme. We study the constraints on the value of $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ coming from the individual data sets by repeating the NNLO and NLO global analyses at various fixed values of $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$ about its optimum values, spanning the range $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)=0.108$ to $0.128$ in units of $0.001$, and making all PDFs sets available. The inclusion of the measurements of the cross section for inclusive $t\\bar{t}$ production in the global fit allows us to explore the correlation between the values taken for the mass $m_t$ of the top quark and $\\alpha_S(M_Z^2)$. We find that the best fit values are ...

  8. Essays on Price Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hong, Gee Hee

    2012-01-01

    Small Regular Price Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 The Cyclicality of Effective Prices2.3 Wholesale Price vs. Retail

  9. Why are allowance prices so low? An analysis of the SO{sub 2} emissions trading program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ellerman, A.D.; Montero, J.P.

    1997-12-31

    This paper presents an analysis of the reduction in SO{sub 2} emissions by electric utilities between 1985 and 1993. We find that, as of 1993, emissions had been reduced for reasons largely unrelated to the emission reduction mandate incorporated in Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. The principal reason appears to be the change in the economics of coal choice that resulted from the remarkable decline in rail rates for low sulfur western coal delivered to higher sulfur coal-fired plants in the Midwest. Consequently, one of the reasons that allowance prices are lower than expected is that less sulfur need be removed to meet the Title IV caps on aggregate SO{sub x} emissions.

  10. Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lodwick, Weldon

    11 Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty Optimization Modeling Math 4794/5794: Spring 2013 Weldon A. Lodwick Weldon.Lodwick@ucdenver.edu 2/14/2013 Optimization Modeling - Spring 2013 #12 in the context of optimization problems. The theoretical frame-work for these notes is interval analysis. From

  11. An inverse scheme for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in basin modeling: the resolution limits of Easy%Ro 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huvaz, Ozkan

    2000-01-01

    One of the major contributors to uncertainties in basin modeling arises from the determination of the parameters necessary for reconstructing the thermal history due to the importance of the thermal maturity in evaluating the petroleum potential...

  12. The Impact of City-level Permitting Processes on Residential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development Times: An Empirical Analysis of Solar Systems in California Cities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan

    2014-01-01

    and Utility-Scale Photovoltaic System Prices in the UnitedResidential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and DevelopmentResidential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development

  13. An Analysis of Residential PV System Price Differences between the United States and Germany

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Residential photovoltaic (PV) systems were twice as expensive in the United States as in Germany (median of $5.29/W vs. $2.59/W) in 2012. This price discrepancy stems primarily from differences in non-hardware or "soft" costs between the two countries, which can only be explained in part by differences in cumulative market size and associated learning. A survey of German PV installers was deployed to collect rough data on PV soft costs in Germany to compare to results of a similar survey of U.S. PV installers. Non-module hardware costs and all analyzed soft costs are lower in Germany, especially for customer acquisition, installation labor, and profit/overhead costs, but also for expenses related to permitting, interconnection, and inspection procedures. Additional costs occur in the United States due to state and local sales taxes, smaller average system sizes, and longer project development times. To reduce the identified additional costs of residential PV systems, the United States could introduce policies that enable a robust and lasting market while minimizing market fragmentation.

  14. Price regulation for waste hauling franchises in California: an examination of how regulators regulate pricing and the effects of competition on regulated markets

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Seltzer, Steven A.

    2011-01-01

    Thomadakis, Stavros. “Price Regulation Under Uncertainty inin the Theory of Regulation. ” Handbook of IndustrialMark and David Sappington. “Regulation, Competition and

  15. Understanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices Over the Past Decade

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2012-01-01

    the raw materials and energy prices used in this report areof Economic Analysis. Energy Price Data Monthly time seriestherefore exposure to U.S. energy prices – over this period.

  16. Incorporating the Price of Quality in Efficiency Analysis: The Case of Electricity Distrubution Regulation in the UK

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yu, William; Jamasb, Tooraj; Pollitt, Michael G.

    and the DNOs face trade-offs between capital expenditures (Capex) and operating expenditures (Opex) on the one hand and quality of service and network energy losses on the other. For example, increased spending in new equipment or more rapid response... , Capex, Opex, service quality, and energy loss are regulated under different types of schemes. DNOs should be subject to price of all their inputs price including that of quality of service. Currently, the DNOs are subject to an implicit price...

  17. MCNP6 Results for the Phase III Sensitivity Benchmark of the OCED/NEA Expert Group on Uncertainty Analysis for Criticality Safety Assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kiedrowski, Brian C.

    2012-06-19

    Within the last decade, there has been increasing interest in the calculation of cross section sensitivity coefficients of k{sub eff} for integral experiment design and uncertainty analysis. The OECD/NEA has an Expert Group devoted to Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis within the Working Party for Nuclear Criticality Safety. This expert group has developed benchmarks to assess code capabilities and performance for doing sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Phase III of a set of sensitivity benchmarks evaluates capabilities for computing sensitivity coefficients. MCNP6 has the capability to compute cross section sensitivities for k{sub eff} using continuous-energy physics. To help verify this capability, results for the Phase III benchmark cases are generated and submitted to the Expert Group for comparison. The Phase III benchmark has three cases: III.1, an array of MOX fuel pins, III.2, a series of infinite lattices of MOX fuel pins with varying pitches, and III.3 two spheres with homogeneous mixtures of UF{sub 4} and polyethylene with different enrichments.

  18. Why are allowance prices so low? : an analysis of the SO2 emissions trading program

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ellerman, A. Denny

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the reduction in SO2 emissions by electric utilities between 1985 and 1993. We find that emissions have been reduced for reasons largely unrelated to the emission reduction mandate ...

  19. Analysis of farm-to-retail price spreads for whole and two percent milk in seven selected cities 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dickerson, Marla Lashea

    2004-09-30

    price spread of whole and two percent milk were the retail price for whole and two percent milk, marketing costs such as fuel and labor costs, milk production, seasonality, and structural change. Monthly data were collected over a 106 month period...

  20. Utility-Scale Solar 2012: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2014-01-01

    installed since 2007 in both DC and AC terms. Because solar project capacityinstalled project costs or prices – i.e. , the traditional realm of solar economics analyses – but also operating costs, capacityinstalled project costs or prices – i.e. , the traditional realm of solar economics analyses – but also operating costs, capacity

  1. The Role of Uncertainty Quantification for Reactor Physics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Salvatores, Massimo; Palmiotti, Giuseppe; Aliberti, G.

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of uncertainties is a crucial step in design. The comparison of a-priori uncertainties with the target accuracies, allows to define needs and priorities for uncertainty reduction. In view of their impact, the uncertainty analysis requires a reliability assessment of the uncertainty data used. The choice of the appropriate approach and the consistency of different approaches are discussed.

  2. Price forecasting for notebook computers 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Rutherford, Derek Paul

    1997-01-01

    of individual features are estimated. A time series analysis is used to forecast and can be used, for example, to forecast (1) notebook computer price at introduction, and (2) rate of price erosion for a notebook's life cycle. Results indicate that this approach...

  3. Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    LBNL-5096E Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated of California. #12;Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated.e. dynamic prices). Using a regression-based baseline model, we define several Demand Response (DR

  4. Understanding the Impact of Higher Corn Prices on Consumer Food Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None

    2007-04-18

    In an effort to assess the true effects of higher corn prices, the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) commissioned an analysis on the impact of increased corn prices on retail food prices. This paper summarizes key results of the study and offers additional analysis based on information from a variety of other sources.

  5. Spatial Analysis of the Relationship between Open Spaces and Property Price in Edinburgh Using Geographically Weighted Regression Model (GWR) 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wang, Chien-Hen

    Traditionally, the relationship between housing amenity values and property prices has been investigated through the global model (OLS), in which spatial heterogeneity is largely ignored in the regression procedure. This ...

  6. International market integration for natural gas? : a cointegration analysis of priced in Europe, North America and Japan

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    L'Hegaret, Guillaume

    2004-01-01

    We examine the degree of natural gas market integration in Europe, North America and Japan, between the mid 1990?s and 2002. Our hypothesis is that there was a certain split of prices between Europe and North America. The ...

  7. DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis. Version 5.0, user's manual.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eldred, Michael Scott; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Hough, Patricia Diane; Gay, David M.; Eddy, John P.; Haskell, Karen H.

    2010-05-01

    The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the DAKOTA software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

  8. DAKOTA, a multilevel parellel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis:version 4.0 uers's manual.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Griffin, Joshua D.; Eldred, Michael Scott; Martinez-Canales, Monica L.; Watson, Jean-Paul; Kolda, Tamara Gibson; Giunta, Anthony Andrew; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Williams, Pamela J.; Hough, Patricia Diane; Gay, David M.; Dunlavy, Daniel M.; Eddy, John P.; Hart, William Eugene; Brown, Shannon L.

    2006-10-01

    The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the DAKOTA software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

  9. DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis. Version 5.0, developers manual.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eldred, Michael Scott; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Hough, Patricia Diane; Gay, David M.; Eddy, John P.; Haskell, Karen H.

    2010-05-01

    The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a developers manual for the DAKOTA software and describes the DAKOTA class hierarchies and their interrelationships. It derives directly from annotation of the actual source code and provides detailed class documentation, including all member functions and attributes.

  10. Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis:version 4.0 developers manual.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Griffin, Joshua D. (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Eldred, Michael Scott; Martinez-Canales, Monica L.; Watson, Jean-Paul; Kolda, Tamara Gibson (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Giunta, Anthony Andrew; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Williams, Pamela J.; Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Dunlavy, Daniel M.; Eddy, John P.; Hart, William Eugene; Brown, Shannon L.

    2006-10-01

    The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a developers manual for the DAKOTA software and describes the DAKOTA class hierarchies and their interrelationships. It derives directly from annotation of the actual source code and provides detailed class documentation, including all member functions and attributes.

  11. Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent; Huang, Cheng; Kim, Young-Min; Liu, Yang

    2014-01-01

    Background: It is anticipated that climate change will influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, the estimation of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves is subject to large uncertainties, which have not been examined under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated the future heat wave impact on mortality in the eastern United States (~ 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and analyzed the sources of uncertainties. Methods Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections in 2057-2059, we calculated heat wave days and episodes based on four heat wave metrics, and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. The sources of uncertainty in estimated excess mortality were apportioned using a variance-decomposition method. Results: In the eastern U.S., the excess mortality attributable to heat waves could range from 200-7,807 with the mean of 2,379 persons/year in 2057-2059. The projected average excess mortality in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios was 1,403 and 3,556 persons/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern and eastern coastal areas. The major sources of uncertainty in the estimates are relative risk of heat wave mortality, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: The estimated mortality risks from future heat waves are likely an order of magnitude higher than its current level and lead to thousands of deaths each year under the RCP8.5 scenario. The substantial spatial variability in estimated county-level heat mortality suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data.

  12. Selling Into the Sun: Price Premium Analysis of a Multi-State Dataset of Solar Homes

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Homes with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have multiplied in the United States recently, reaching more than half a million in 2014, in part due to plummeting PV costs and innovative financing options. As PV systems become an increasingly common feature of U.S. homes, the ability to assess the value of these homes appropriately will become increasingly important. At the same time, capturing the value of PV to homes will be important for facilitating a robust residential PV market. Appraisers and real estate agents have made strides toward valuing PV homes, and several limited studies have suggested the presence of PV home premiums; however, gaps remain in understanding these premiums for housing markets nationwide. To fill these gaps, researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and their collaborators from other institutions conducted the most comprehensive PV home premium analysis to date. The study more than doubles the number of PV home sales previously analyzed, examines transactions in eight states, and spans the years 2002–2013. The results impart confidence that PV consistently adds value across a variety of states, housing and PV markets, and home types.

  13. Large-Scale Uncertainty and Error Analysis for Time-dependent Fluid/Structure Interactions in Wind Turbine Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Alonso, Juan J. [Stanford University; Iaccarino, Gianluca [Stanford University

    2013-08-25

    The following is the final report covering the entire period of this aforementioned grant, June 1, 2011 - May 31, 2013 for the portion of the effort corresponding to Stanford University (SU). SU has partnered with Sandia National Laboratories (PI: Mike S. Eldred) and Purdue University (PI: Dongbin Xiu) to complete this research project and this final report includes those contributions made by the members of the team at Stanford. Dr. Eldred is continuing his contributions to this project under a no-cost extension and his contributions to the overall effort will be detailed at a later time (once his effort has concluded) on a separate project submitted by Sandia National Laboratories. At Stanford, the team is made up of Profs. Alonso, Iaccarino, and Duraisamy, post-doctoral researcher Vinod Lakshminarayan, and graduate student Santiago Padron. At Sandia National Laboratories, the team includes Michael Eldred, Matt Barone, John Jakeman, and Stefan Domino, and at Purdue University, we have Prof. Dongbin Xiu as our main collaborator. The overall objective of this project was to develop a novel, comprehensive methodology for uncertainty quantification by combining stochastic expansions (nonintrusive polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation), the adjoint approach, and fusion with experimental data to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties from random variable, random field, and model form sources. The expected outcomes of this activity were detailed in the proposal and are repeated here to set the stage for the results that we have generated during the time period of execution of this project: 1. The rigorous determination of an error budget comprising numerical errors in physical space and statistical errors in stochastic space and its use for optimal allocation of resources; 2. A considerable increase in efficiency when performing uncertainty quantification with a large number of uncertain variables in complex non-linear multi-physics problems; 3. A solution to the long-time integration problem of spectral chaos approaches; 4. A rigorous methodology to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, to emphasize the most important variables via dimension reduction and dimension-adaptive refinement, and to support fusion with experimental data using Bayesian inference; 5. The application of novel methodologies to time-dependent reliability studies in wind turbine applications including a number of efforts relating to the uncertainty quantification in vertical-axis wind turbine applications. In this report, we summarize all accomplishments in the project (during the time period specified) focusing on advances in UQ algorithms and deployment efforts to the wind turbine application area. Detailed publications in each of these areas have also been completed and are available from the respective conference proceedings and journals as detailed in a later section.

  14. Price Risk Management in the Midst of a Credit Crisis 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Welch, Mark; Amosson, Stephen H.; Robinson, John; Falconer, Lawrence

    2009-03-26

    Agricultural producers today face volatile markets, tight credit, economic uncertainty and escalating input costs. Understanding and using risk management tools in this environment can reduce much of the price risk and may improve financial returns....

  15. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    2004. “OPEC’s Optimal Crude Oil Price,” Energy Policy 32(2),percent change in real oil price. Figure 3. Price of crude023 Understanding Crude Oil Prices James D. Hamilton June

  16. The Effects of Prediction Market Design and Price Elasticity on Trading Performance of Users: An Experimental Analysis

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blohm, Ivo; Füller, Johann; Köroglu, Orhan; Leimeister, Jan Marco; Krcmar, Helmut

    2012-01-01

    We employ a 2x3 factorial experiment to study two central factors in the design of prediction markets (PMs) for idea evaluation: the overall design of the PM, and the elasticity of market prices set by a market maker. The results show that 'multi-market designs' on which each contract is traded on a separate PM lead to significantly higher trading performance than 'single-markets' that handle all contracts one on PM. Price elasticity has no direct effect on trading performance, but a significant interaction effect with market design implies that the performance difference between the market designs is highest in settings of moderate price elasticity. We contribute to the emerging research stream of PM design through an unprecedented experiment which compares current market designs.

  17. Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper,Nicole; Ting, Michael; Neenan, Bernie

    2005-08-01

    Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is how to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market structure, ratemaking practices and standards, and customer preferences? Third, if a primary goal for RTP implementation is to induce DR, what types of supplemental activities are warranted to support customer participation and price response (e.g., interval metering deployment, customer education, and technical assistance)?

  18. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

    2010-05-01

    Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 [1] and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository [2]. This presentation provides an overview of the conceptual and computational structure of the indicated PA (hereafter referred to as the 2008 YM PA) and the roles that uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis play in this structure.

  19. Utility-Scale Solar 2012: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2014-01-01

    solar economics analyses – but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement (“solar power can be profitably sold through a long-term power purchase agreement (“Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”) Prices The cost of installing, operating, and maintaining a utility-scale solar

  20. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Quantification

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity ofkandz-cm11 Outreach Home RoomPreservation of Fe(II)GeothermalFuel MagnetizationTransportation EnergyUncertainty Analysis

  1. Supernova relic neutrinos and the supernova rate problem: Analysis of uncertainties and detectability of ONeMg and failed supernovae

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mathews, Grant J. [Center for Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556 (United States); Hidaka, Jun; Kajino, Toshitaka; Suzuki, Jyutaro [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2-21-1 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan)

    2014-08-01

    Direct measurements of the core collapse supernova rate (R{sub SN}) in the redshift range 0 ? z ? 1 appear to be about a factor of two smaller than the rate inferred from the measured cosmic massive star formation rate (SFR). This discrepancy would imply that about one-half of the massive stars that have been born in the local observed comoving volume did not explode as luminous supernovae. In this work, we explore the possibility that one could clarify the source of this 'supernova rate problem' by detecting the energy spectrum of supernova relic neutrinos with a next generation 10{sup 6} ton water ?erenkov detector like Hyper-Kamiokande. First, we re-examine the supernova rate problem. We make a conservative alternative compilation of the measured SFR data over the redshift range 0 ?z ? 7. We show that by only including published SFR data for which the dust obscuration has been directly determined, the ratio of the observed massive SFR to the observed supernova rate R{sub SN} has large uncertainties ?1.8{sub ?0.6}{sup +1.6} and is statistically consistent with no supernova rate problem. If we further consider that a significant fraction of massive stars will end their lives as faint ONeMg SNe or as failed SNe leading to a black hole remnant, then the ratio reduces to ?1.1{sub ?0.4}{sup +1.0} and the rate problem is essentially solved. We next examine the prospects for detecting this solution to the supernova rate problem. We first study the sources of uncertainty involved in the theoretical estimates of the neutrino detection rate and analyze whether the spectrum of relic neutrinos can be used to independently identify the existence of a supernova rate problem and its source. We consider an ensemble of published and unpublished core collapse supernova simulation models to estimate the uncertainties in the anticipated neutrino luminosities and temperatures. We illustrate how the spectrum of detector events might be used to establish the average neutrino temperature and constrain SN models. We also consider supernova ?-process nucleosynthesis to deduce constraints on the temperature of the various neutrino flavors. We study the effects of neutrino oscillations on the detected neutrino energy spectrum and also show that one might distinguish the equation of state (EoS) as well as the cause of the possible missing luminous supernovae from the detection of supernova relic neutrinos. We also analyze a possible enhanced contribution from failed supernovae leading to a black hole remnant as a solution to the supernova rate problem. We conclude that indeed it might be possible (though difficult) to measure the neutrino temperature, neutrino oscillations, and the EoS and confirm this source of missing luminous supernovae by the detection of the spectrum of relic neutrinos.

  2. Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Environmental Data and Models. Volume 2. Performance, Emissions, and Cost of Combustion-Based NOx Controls for Wall and Tangential Furnace Coal-Fired Power Plants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Frey, H. Christopher; Tran, Loan K.

    1999-04-30

    This is Volume 2 of a two-volume set of reports describing work conducted at North Carolina State University sponsored by Grant Number DE-FG05-95ER30250 by the U.S. Department of Energy. The title of the project is “Quantitative Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Acid Rain Assessments.” The work conducted under sponsorship of this grant pertains primarily to two main topics: (1) development of new methods for quantitative analysis of variability and uncertainty applicable to any type of model; and (2) analysis of variability and uncertainty in the performance, emissions, and cost of electric power plant combustion-based NOx control technologies. These two main topics are reported separately in Volumes 1 and 2.

  3. Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    0 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2010 Report describes the 2010 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing...

  4. SIMULATION MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE MOST PROMISING GEOLOGIC SEQUESTRATION FORMATION CANDIDATES IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION, USA, WITH FOCUS ON UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lee, Si-Yong; Zaluski, Wade; Will, Robert; Eisinger, Chris; Matthews, Vince; McPherson, Brian

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to report results of reservoir model simulation analyses for forecasting subsurface CO2 storage capacity estimation for the most promising formations in the Rocky Mountain region of the USA. A particular emphasis of this project was to assess uncertainty of the simulation-based forecasts. Results illustrate how local-scale data, including well information, number of wells, and location of wells, affect storage capacity estimates and what degree of well density (number of wells over a fixed area) may be required to estimate capacity within a specified degree of confidence. A major outcome of this work was development of a new workflow of simulation analysis, accommodating the addition of “random pseudo wells” to represent virtual characterization wells.

  5. Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price turbines. This second effect is the primary use of the fuel price forecast for the Council's Fifth Power

  6. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 3 May/June 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  7. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 4 July/August 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  8. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 3 May/June 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  9. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 5 September/October 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  10. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 25 NO. 4 July/August 2007 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  11. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 6 November/December 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  12. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 5 September/October 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  13. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 1 January/February 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  14. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 2 March/April 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  15. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 4 July/August 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  16. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 25 NO. 3 May/June 2007 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  17. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 6 November/December 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  18. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 2 March/April 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  19. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 4 July/August 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  20. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 21 NO. 5 September/October 2003 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  1. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 1 January/February 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  2. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 1 January/February 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  3. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 25 NO. 1 January/February 2007 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  4. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 25 NO. 2 March/April 2007 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  5. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 21 NO. 6 November/December 2003 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  6. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 6 November/December 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  7. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 22 NO. 3 May/June 2004 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  8. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 24 NO. 5 September/October 2006 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price

  9. TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS BIMONTHLY MARKET REPORT VOL. 23 NO. 2 March/April 2005 #12;TEXAS TIMBER PRICE TRENDS WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT? Texas Timber Price Trends is a bi-monthly publication reporting average prices paid for standing timber, commonly called the "stumpage price," for the two months

  10. Price controls and international petroleum product prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Deacon, R.T.; Mead, W.J.; Agarwal, V.B.

    1980-02-01

    The effects of Federal refined-product price controls upon the price of motor gasoline in the United States through 1977 are examined. A comparison of domestic and foreign gasoline prices is made, based on the prices of products actually moving in international trade. There is also an effort to ascribe US/foreign market price differentials to identifiable cost factors. Primary emphasis is on price comparisons at the wholesale level, although some retail comparisons are presented. The study also examines the extent to which product price controls are binding, and attempts to estimate what the price of motor gasoline would have been in the absence of controls. The time period under consideration is from 1969 through 1977, with primary focus on price relationships in 1970-1971 (just before US controls) and 1976-1977. The foreign-domestic comparisons are made with respect to four major US cities, namely, Boston, New York, New Orleans, and Los Angeles. 20 figures, 14 tables.

  11. Steam Pricing 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jones, K. C.

    1986-01-01

    stream_source_info ESL-IE-86-06-19.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 30463 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name ESL-IE-86-06-19.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 STEAM PRICING... Kenneth C. Jones Shell Oil Company Houston, Texas ABSTRACT Steam is used in many plants to furnish both heat and mechanical energy. It is typically produced in several fired boilers which may operate at different pressures and with different...

  12. Planning for future uncertainties in electric power generation : an analysis of transitional strategies for reduction of carbon and sulfur emissions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tabors, Richard D.

    1991-01-01

    The object of this paper is to identify strategies for the U.S. electric utility industry for reduction of both acid rain producing and global warming gases. The research used the EPRI Electric Generation Expansion Analysis ...

  13. Achieving Robustness to Uncertainty for Financial Decision-making

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Barnum, George M.; Van Buren, Kendra L.; Hemez, Francois M.; Song, Peter

    2014-01-10

    This report investigates the concept of robustness analysis to support financial decision-making. Financial models, that forecast future stock returns or market conditions, depend on assumptions that might be unwarranted and variables that might exhibit large fluctuations from their last-known values. The analysis of robustness explores these sources of uncertainty, and recommends model settings such that the forecasts used for decision-making are as insensitive as possible to the uncertainty. A proof-of-concept is presented with the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The robustness of model predictions is assessed using info-gap decision theory. Info-gaps are models of uncertainty that express the “distance,” or gap of information, between what is known and what needs to be known in order to support the decision. The analysis yields a description of worst-case stock returns as a function of increasing gaps in our knowledge. The analyst can then decide on the best course of action by trading-off worst-case performance with “risk”, which is how much uncertainty they think needs to be accommodated in the future. The report also discusses the Graphical User Interface, developed using the MATLAB® programming environment, such that the user can control the analysis through an easy-to-navigate interface. Three directions of future work are identified to enhance the present software. First, the code should be re-written using the Python scientific programming software. This change will achieve greater cross-platform compatibility, better portability, allow for a more professional appearance, and render it independent from a commercial license, which MATLAB® requires. Second, a capability should be developed to allow users to quickly implement and analyze their own models. This will facilitate application of the software to the evaluation of proprietary financial models. The third enhancement proposed is to add the ability to evaluate multiple models simultaneously. When two models reflect past data with similar accuracy, the more robust of the two is preferable for decision-making because its predictions are, by definition, less sensitive to the uncertainty.

  14. Domestic petroleum-product prices around the world. Survey: free market or government price controls

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1983-01-27

    In this issue, Energy Detente draws from their regular Western and Eastern Hemisphere Fuel Price/Tax Series, each produced monthly, and adds other survey data and analysis for a broad view of 48 countries around the world. They find that seven Latin American nations, including OPEC members Venezuela and Ecuador, are among the ten countries with lowest gasoline prices. In this Fourth Special Price Report, Energy Detente provides a first-time presentation of which prices are government-controlled, and which are free to respond to market forces. South Korea, with fixed prices since 1964, has the highest premium-grade gasoline price in our survey, US $5.38 per gallon. Paraguay, with prices fixed by PETROPAR, the national oil company, has the second highest premium gasoline price, US $4.21 per gallon. Nicaragua, also with government price controls, ranks third highest in the survey, with US $3.38 per gallon for premium gasoline. Kuwait shows the lowest price at US $0.55 per gallon. Several price changes from the previous survey reflect changes in currency exchange as all prices are converted to US dollars. The Energy Detente fuel price/tax series is presented for Western Hemisphere countries.

  15. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    2004. “OPEC’s Optimal Crude Oil Price,” Energy Policy 32(2),the Predictive Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices,” EnergyFigure 3. Price of crude oil contract maturing December of

  16. Overshooting of agricultural prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Stamoulis, Kostas G.; Rausser, Gordon C.

    1987-01-01

    Rotenberg, Julio J. , "Sticky Prices in the United States,"Monetary Policy on United States Agriculture. A Fix-Price,Flex-Price Approach," Unpublished Ph.D. Disser- tation,

  17. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    2004. “OPEC’s Optimal Crude Oil Price,” Energy Policy 32(2),023 Understanding Crude Oil Prices James D. Hamilton Junedirectly. Understanding Crude Oil Prices* James D. Hamilton

  18. Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life Cycle Cost...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Life Cycle Cost Analysis, 2013 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life Cycle Cost Analysis, 2013 Handbook describes the annual supplements to the NIST Handbook 135 and...

  19. Decision Analysis for EGS

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Project objectives: DEVELOPMENT OF ANALYSIS TOOLS TO ASSESS: Uncertainties associated with exploration for EGS; Uncertainties associated with development of EGS; Uncertainties associated with operation of EGS.

  20. Volatility of Power Grids Under Real-Time Pricing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Roozbehani, Mardavij

    The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power systems with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Characterized by passing on the ...

  1. State energy price and expenditure report 1993

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-12-01

    The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 states and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the US. The five economic sectors used in SEPER correspond to those used in SEDR and are residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility. Documentation in appendices describe how the price estimates are developed, provide conversion factors for measures used in the energy analysis, and include a glossary. 65 tabs.

  2. Journal of Engineering Valuation and Cost Analysis, Vol. 2, pp. 285-301 Risk Analysis for Large Engineering Projects: Modeling Cost Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    van Dorp, Johan René

    Journal of Engineering Valuation and Cost Analysis, Vol. 2, pp. 285-301 1 Risk Analysis for Large Carlo simulation of activity networks has generated interest as a method for cost/schedule risk analysis risk analysis is now widely available as extensions to many popular project management

  3. Dealing with parameter uncertainty in the calculation of water surface profiles 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Vargas-Cruz, Ruben F.

    1998-01-01

    for the reliability of the analysis results. Uncertainty analysis should be adopted as another important step within the hydrologic and hydraulic analysis. Unfortunately, the incorporation of uncertainty analysis in many engineering studies is not a common practice...

  4. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  5. Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Mccomiskey, Allison

    2008-01-15

    Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

  6. Evaluation of the Repeatability of the Delta Q Duct Leakage Testing Technique Including Investigation of Robust Analysis Techniques and Estimates of Weather Induced Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dickerhoff, Darryl

    2008-01-01

    Techniques and Estimates of Weather Induced Uncertaintythe uncertainty due to changing weather during the test (the DeltaQ test are influenced by weather induced pressures.

  7. Davis-Besse uncertainty study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, C B

    1987-08-01

    The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results.

  8. Strategic investment in power generation under uncertainty : Electric Reliability Council of Texas

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Chiyangwa, Diana Kudakwashe

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a strategy for investment in power generation technologies in the future given the uncertainties in climate policy and fuel prices. First, such studies are commonly conducted using ...

  9. Analysis of road pricing, metering and the priority treatment of high occupancy vehicles using system dynamics. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Castillo, W.

    1992-01-01

    Transportation Systems Management (TSM) employs various techniques such as road pricing, metering and the priority treatment of high occupancy vehicles (HOVs) in an effort to make more efficient use of existing transportation facilities. Efficiency is improved in terms of moving more people through the facility while simultaneously reducing the number of vehicles using the facility. This report uses a hypothetical toll facility and examines four computer modeling approaches to determine which of the approaches are valid in terms of predicting the behavior of trip makers seeking to use the facility in response to various combinations of TSM techniques. Once an approach has been determined to be valid, seven different combination of TSM techniques, or strategies, are compared to a base strategy to determine what strategy or strategies are most affective in achieving the goals of TSM.

  10. CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES NOVEMBER 1958 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE retail prices for selected canned fish items. The retail prices as contained herein for several types. Department of Labor in order to provide information on price levels in different cities. This issue contains

  11. CANNED FISH RETAIL .PRICES,

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CANNED FISH RETAIL .PRICES, OC1rOIBrE~ UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INT...n.~""n FISH retail prices for selected canned fish items. The retail prices as contained herein for several types. Department of Labor in order to provide information on price levels in different cities. This issue contains

  12. Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

    2012-03-20

    Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

  13. Three Essays on Retail Price Dynamics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Elberg, Andres

    2010-01-01

    of Reference Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.4.5 Reference Prices andChain-Level Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

  14. The principal component analysis method used with polynomial Chaos expansion to propagate uncertainties through critical transport problems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rising, M. E.; Prinja, A. K.

    2012-07-01

    A critical neutron transport problem with random material properties is introduced. The total cross section and the average neutron multiplicity are assumed to be uncertain, characterized by the mean and variance with a log-normal distribution. The average neutron multiplicity and the total cross section are assumed to be uncorrected and the material properties for differing materials are also assumed to be uncorrected. The principal component analysis method is used to decompose the covariance matrix into eigenvalues and eigenvectors and then 'realizations' of the material properties can be computed. A simple Monte Carlo brute force sampling of the decomposed covariance matrix is employed to obtain a benchmark result for each test problem. In order to save computational time and to characterize the moments and probability density function of the multiplication factor the polynomial chaos expansion method is employed along with the stochastic collocation method. A Gauss-Hermite quadrature set is convolved into a multidimensional tensor product quadrature set and is successfully used to compute the polynomial chaos expansion coefficients of the multiplication factor. Finally, for a particular critical fuel pin assembly the appropriate number of random variables and polynomial expansion order are investigated. (authors)

  15. Multifidelity methods for multidisciplinary design under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Christensen, Daniel Erik

    2012-01-01

    For computational design and analysis tasks, scientists and engineers often have available many different simulation models. The output of each model has an associated uncertainty that is a result of the modeling process. ...

  16. Renewable Energy and Efficiency Modeling Analysis Partnership: An Analysis of How Different Energy Models Addressed a Common High Renewable Energy Penetration Scenario in 2025

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Blair, N.

    2010-01-01

    p p provide demand and fossil fuel price response p p •Yucca Mtn, etc. ) • Fossil fuel prices – Natural Gas, OilRound 1 to Tier 1 • Fossil fuel price uncertainty changed

  17. Quantity and Price Controls for the Correction of Externalities under Uncertain Damages: Evidence from a Laboratory Experimenta

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

    Quantity and Price Controls for the Correction of Externalities under Uncertain Damages: Evidence theory predicts that quantity (e.g., tradable permits) and price (e.g., taxes) instruments uncertainty, experimental economics, externalities, price and quantity controls, tradable permit systems a

  18. Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bargiela, Andrzej

    Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems A. Bargiela Department Operation of water distribution systems requires a variety of decisions to be made. There are system. There are system management decisions concerning the regulatory measures such as water pricing principles, effluent

  19. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-01-01

    Associates, citing NYMEX natural gas bid-offer spreadAnalysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures. ” The Energyas a Physical Hedge Against Natural Gas Price Movements. ”

  20. Oil-Price Shocks: Beyond Standard Aggregate Demand/Aggregate

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dahlquist, Kam D.

    Oil-Price Shocks: Beyond Standard Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Analysis S. Kirk Elwood Abstract: The author explores the problems of portraying oil-price shocks using the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model. Although oil-price shocks are the most commonly cited examples of aggregate supply shocks

  1. FACTORS AFFECTING EXVESSEL PRICES OF SKIPJACK TUNA IN HAWAII

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    FACTORS AFFECTING EXVESSEL PRICES OF SKIPJACK TUNA IN HAWAII Yung C . Shang The skipj ack -tuna to overfishing. On the other hand, the cost-revenue analysis indicates that, given the past input and tuna prices objective of this paper is to exam- ine the factors affecting the prices of skipj ack tuna. Skipjack

  2. A Tool for the Analysis of Real Options in Sustainability Improvement Projects 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Boonchanta, Napon

    2012-10-19

    .................................................................................................... 27 6.3 Simulation model of uncertainty scenarios .......................................................... 29 6.3.1 Uncertainty in electricity price ........................................................ 30 6.3.2 Uncertainty in photovoltaic... ................... 13 4 The retail electricity price and the cost of electricity produced from renewable energy trend ..................................................................................... 16 5 Average retail price of electricity in commercial...

  3. Sandia Energy - Uncertainty Quantification

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    rate-expression parameters. It is important, both for model validation and design optimization purposes, that these uncertainties be adequately quantified and propagated to...

  4. A Framework for Analysis of the Uncertainty of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change on the Risk of Water Stress: a Case Study in Asia

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fant, C.

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in how these factors change in the future is the uncertainty of ...

  5. POWER MANAGEMENT IN A HYDRO-THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY BY LAGRANGIAN

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Römisch, Werner

    POWER MANAGEMENT IN A HYDRO-THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY BY LAGRANGIAN RELAXATION NICOLE GR power in a hydro-thermal system under uncertainty in load, inflow to reservoirs and prices for fuel to successive decom- position into single thermal and hydro unit subproblems that are solved by dynamic

  6. STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

  7. Contractual form, retail price and asset characteristics

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Shepard, Andrea

    1991-01-01

    Predictions derived from a principal-agent analysis of the manufacturer-retailer relationship are derived and tested using microdata on contractual form, outlet characteristics and retail prices for gasoline stations in ...

  8. Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Scott, K. Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S.Noureddine. 2002. World crude oil and natural gas: a demandelasticity of demand for crude oil, not gasoline. Results

  9. Oil prices spike to over barreland price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Oil prices spike to over $145/ barreland price of electricity exceeds $0.50/kWh in U.S. Virgin installs waste heat recovery plant, adding19 MWofpower withoutburningasingledropof additionaloil VIEO Biomass Grid Waste-to- Energy Landfill Gas LEGEND Solar EDIN Energy Development in Island Nations EDIN

  10. The Minimum Price Contract 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Waller, Mark L.; Amosson, Stephen H.; Welch, Mark; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.

    2008-10-17

    A minimum price contract is one of many tools a marketer may use to better manage price and production risk while trying to achieve financial goals and objectives. This publication discusses the advantages and disadvantages involved...

  11. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth; Preston, Dean L.

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  12. Grid Pricing of Fed Cattle 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schroeder, Ted C.; Hogan, Robert J.; Anderson, David P.

    2009-03-02

    There are several value-based fed cattle pricing systems, including formula pricing, price grids and alliances. This publication describes the different cattle pricing methods and helps you decide which is best for you....

  13. Utility spot pricing study : Wisconsin

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Caramanis, Michael C.

    1982-01-01

    Spot pricing covers a range of electric utility pricing structures which relate the marginal costs of electric generation to the prices seen by utility customers. At the shortest time frames prices change every five ...

  14. The Appraisal Journal, Price Effects of High Voltage Transmission...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data was sufficient to derive precise market price equations via multiple linear regression analysis for both Portland and Seattle. In addition, due to where the rights of way...

  15. Edgeworth Price Cycles: Evidence from the Toronto Retail Gasoline Market

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Noel, Michael

    2004-01-01

    Robbery, An Analysis of the Gasoline Crisis”, Bloomington:Dynamic Pricing in Retail gasoline Markets”, RAND Journal ofR. Gilbert. “Do Gasoline Markets Respond Asymmetrically to

  16. Optimization Online - Convex Hull Pricing in Electricity Markets ...

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dane Schiro

    2015-03-19

    Mar 19, 2015 ... Convex Hull Pricing in Electricity Markets: Formulation, Analysis, and ... Citation: ISO New England, Holyoke, MA 01040 USA (March 2015).

  17. Fact #835: August 25, 2014 Average Annual Gasoline Pump Price...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    More Documents & Publications Fact 888: August 31, 2015 Historical Gas Prices - Dataset Offshore Wind Market and Economic Analysis Report 2013 Response to several...

  18. CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE BUREAU PRICES APRIL 1959 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch of Market Development FISHERY with the Bureau of Labor Statistics to obtain a v e rage retail prices for selected canned fish items. The retail

  19. CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES DECEMBER 1958 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE, Commissioner CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES DECEMBER 1958 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch canned fish items. The retail prices as contained herein for s veral types of canned tuna, canned salmon

  20. CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES JUNE ll959 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDUFE, Commissioner CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES JUNE 1959 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch Fisheries has contracted with the Bureau of Labo r Statistics to obtain average retail prices for selected

  1. CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES JA.NUARY 11959 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE, Commissioner CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES JANUARY 195 9 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch Fisheries has contracted with the Bureau of Labor Statistics to obtain average retail prices for se lected

  2. CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES MARCH 1959 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE, Commissioner CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES MARCH 1959 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch canned fish items. The retail prices as contain d h rein for s veral types of canned tuna, canned salmon

  3. Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2015 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2015 Handbook describes the annual...

  4. An uncertainty analysis of the hydrogen source term for a station blackout accident in Sequoyah using MELCOR 1.8.5

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gauntt, Randall O.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Wagner, Kenneth Charles

    2014-03-01

    A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing the range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.

  5. Accelerated Depletion: Assessing Its Impacts on Domestic Oil and Natural Gas Prices and Production

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2000-01-01

    Analysis of the potential impacts of accelerated depletion on domestic oil and natural gas prices and production.

  6. Techno-Economic Analysis of PEV Battery Second Use: Repurposed-Battery Selling Price and Commercial and Industrial End-User Value

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Neubauer, J.; Pesaran, A.; Williams, B.; Ferry, M.; Eyer, J.

    2012-06-01

    Accelerated market penetration of plug-in electric vehicles and deployment of grid-connected energy storage are restricted by the high cost of lithium-ion batteries. Research, development, and manufacturing are underway to lower material costs, enhance process efficiencies, and increase production volumes. A fraction of the battery cost may be recovered after vehicular service by reusing the battery where it may have sufficient performance for other energy-storage applications. By extracting post-vehicle additional services and revenue from the battery, the total lifetime value of the battery is increased. The overall cost of energy-storage solutions for both primary (automotive) and secondary (grid) customer could be decreased. This techno-economic analysis of battery second use considers effects of battery degradation in both automotive and grid service, repurposing costs, balance-of-system costs, the value of aggregated energy-storage to commercial and industrial end users, and competitive technology. Batteries from plug-in electric vehicles can economically be used to serve the power quality and reliability needs of commercial and industrial end users. However, the value to the automotive battery owner is small (e.g., $20-$100/kWh) as declining future battery costs and other factors strongly affect salvage value. Repurposed automotive battery prices may range from $38/kWh to $132/kWh.

  7. Uncertainty Quantification Techniques of SCALE/TSUNAMI

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rearden, Bradley T [ORNL] [ORNL; Mueller, Don [ORNL] [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    The Standardized Computer Analysis for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code system developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) includes Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI). The TSUNAMI code suite can quantify the predicted change in system responses, such as k{sub eff}, reactivity differences, or ratios of fluxes or reaction rates, due to changes in the energy-dependent, nuclide-reaction-specific cross-section data. Where uncertainties in the neutron cross-section data are available, the sensitivity of the system to the cross-section data can be applied to propagate the uncertainties in the cross-section data to an uncertainty in the system response. Uncertainty quantification is useful for identifying potential sources of computational biases and highlighting parameters important to code validation. Traditional validation techniques often examine one or more average physical parameters to characterize a system and identify applicable benchmark experiments. However, with TSUNAMI correlation coefficients are developed by propagating the uncertainties in neutron cross-section data to uncertainties in the computed responses for experiments and safety applications through sensitivity coefficients. The bias in the experiments, as a function of their correlation coefficient with the intended application, is extrapolated to predict the bias and bias uncertainty in the application through trending analysis or generalized linear least squares techniques, often referred to as 'data adjustment.' Even with advanced tools to identify benchmark experiments, analysts occasionally find that the application models include some feature or material for which adequately similar benchmark experiments do not exist to support validation. For example, a criticality safety analyst may want to take credit for the presence of fission products in spent nuclear fuel. In such cases, analysts sometimes rely on 'expert judgment' to select an additional administrative margin to account for gap in the validation data or to conclude that the impact on the calculated bias and bias uncertainty is negligible. As a result of advances in computer programs and the evolution of cross-section covariance data, analysts can use the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools in the TSUNAMI codes to estimate the potential impact on the application-specific bias and bias uncertainty resulting from nuclides not represented in available benchmark experiments. This paper presents the application of methods described in a companion paper.

  8. Uncertainty quantification approaches for advanced reactor analyses.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Briggs, L. L.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2009-03-24

    The original approach to nuclear reactor design or safety analyses was to make very conservative modeling assumptions so as to ensure meeting the required safety margins. Traditional regulation, as established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission required conservatisms which have subsequently been shown to be excessive. The commission has therefore moved away from excessively conservative evaluations and has determined best-estimate calculations to be an acceptable alternative to conservative models, provided the best-estimate results are accompanied by an uncertainty evaluation which can demonstrate that, when a set of analysis cases which statistically account for uncertainties of all types are generated, there is a 95% probability that at least 95% of the cases meet the safety margins. To date, nearly all published work addressing uncertainty evaluations of nuclear power plant calculations has focused on light water reactors and on large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analyses. However, there is nothing in the uncertainty evaluation methodologies that is limited to a specific type of reactor or to specific types of plant scenarios. These same methodologies can be equally well applied to analyses for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and to liquid metal reactors, and they can be applied to steady-state calculations, operational transients, or severe accident scenarios. This report reviews and compares both statistical and deterministic uncertainty evaluation approaches. Recommendations are given for selection of an uncertainty methodology and for considerations to be factored into the process of evaluating uncertainties for advanced reactor best-estimate analyses.

  9. Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    ALVIN,KENNETH F.; OBERKAMPF,WILLIAM L.; RUTHERFORD,BRIAN M.; DIEGERT,KATHLEEN V.

    2000-03-01

    This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

  10. The Impact of City-level Permitting Processes on Residential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development Times: An Empirical Analysis of Solar Systems in California Cities

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Wiser, Ryan

    2014-01-01

    Costs for U.S. Photovoltaic Systems Using a Data- Drivenand Utility-Scale Photovoltaic System Prices in the United1978. Cost of photovoltaic energy systems as determined by

  11. OM 386 Pricing & Revenue Optimization Fall 20121 Unique number 04210

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Ghosh, Joydeep

    they enjoy some degree of market power. Within the broader area of pricing theory, the course places in retail, telecommunications, entertainment, financial services, health care and manufacturing. In parallel forecasts and market uncertainty, and the tools of constrained optimization -- the main building blocks

  12. Price changes in the gasoline market: Are Midwestern gasoline prices downward sticky?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    NONE

    1999-03-01

    This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets: why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices when they`re rising? This question is more complex than it might appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts in government, academia and industry. The question is very important, because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used in arguments for government regulation of prices. The phenomenon of prices at different market levels tending to move differently relative to each other depending on direction is known as price asymmetry. This report summarizes the previous work on gasoline price asymmetry and provides a method for testing for asymmetry in a wide variety of situations. The major finding of this paper is that there is some amount of asymmetry and pattern asymmetry, especially at the retail level, in the Midwestern states that are the focus of the analysis. Nevertheless, both the amount asymmetry and pattern asymmetry are relatively small. In addition, much of the pattern asymmetry detected in this and previous studies could be a statistical artifact caused by the time lags between price changes at different points in the gasoline distribution system. In other words, retail gasoline prices do sometimes rise faster than they fall, but this is largely a lagged market response to an upward shock in the underlying wholesale gasoline or crude oil prices, followed by a return toward the previous baseline. After consistent time lags are factored out, most apparent asymmetry disappears.

  13. Third special price report. [Latin American countries, USA, and Canada

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1982-06-06

    Energy Detente's latest international price survey at midyear 1982 showed the average price of premium gasoline had fallen US $0.27 in the 11-month period since their first special report in July 1981. The biggest price drop occurred in Costa Rica, where prices in local currency increased slightly but in US dollars declined US $1.91 - due to the fall of the Colon against the US dollar. The case of Costa Rica exemplifies how the rise of the US dollar influenced the survey findings. Generally, the price drops showed that in several countries fuel prices haven't kept up with inflation and this shows up when prices are expressed in dollars. However, analysis of US prices, and prices in Guatemala where currency is at par with the dollar, shows prices fell (modestly) there too. Prices in Mexico and Venezuela doubled. Ecuador listed the lowest prices in the survey. Also included in this issue are brief energy notes from Mexico and other Latin American countries.

  14. Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts ............................................................................................................................ 5 U.S. Natural Gas Commodity Prices

  15. Automobile Prices, Gasoline Prices, and Consumer Demand for Fuel Economy

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sadoulet, Elisabeth

    Automobile Prices, Gasoline Prices, and Consumer Demand for Fuel Economy Ashley Langer University 2008 Abstract The relationship between gasoline prices and the demand for vehicle fuel efficiency evidence that automobile manufacturers set vehicle prices as if consumers respond to gasoline prices. We

  16. Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bertini, Robert L.

    Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use A Review of Empirical Findings/Fuel Price Travel Cost Macro-Economy Passenger: VMT or VKT Freight: Ton-Mile or Ton-KM Passenger Mode-run Short and Long-run #12;Topics covered by this presentation: Oil price and macro-economy Gas price

  17. Higher Prices from Entry: Pricing of Brand-Name Drugs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perloff, Jeffrey M.

    Higher Prices from Entry: Pricing of Brand-Name Drugs Jeffrey M. Perloffa Valerie Y. Suslowb,* Paul product, the prices of existing and new products may be higher than the incumbent's original price due to a better match between consumers and products. In other words, the average price in the market can rise

  18. An analysis of the uncertainty and bias in DCE-MRI measurements using the spoiled gradient-recalled echo pulse sequence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Subashi, Ergys [Center for In Vivo Microscopy, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 and Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States)] [Center for In Vivo Microscopy, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 and Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Choudhury, Kingshuk R. [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States)] [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Johnson, G. Allan, E-mail: gjohnson@duke.edu [Center for In Vivo Microscopy, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Department of Radiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States)

    2014-03-15

    Purpose: The pharmacokinetic parameters derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI have been used in more than 100 phase I trials and investigator led studies. A comparison of the absolute values of these quantities requires an estimation of their respective probability distribution function (PDF). The statistical variation of the DCE-MRI measurement is analyzed by considering the fundamental sources of error in the MR signal intensity acquired with the spoiled gradient-echo (SPGR) pulse sequence. Methods: The variance in the SPGR signal intensity arises from quadrature detection and excitation flip angle inconsistency. The noise power was measured in 11 phantoms of contrast agent concentration in the range [0–1] mM (in steps of 0.1 mM) and in onein vivo acquisition of a tumor-bearing mouse. The distribution of the flip angle was determined in a uniform 10 mM CuSO{sub 4} phantom using the spin echo double angle method. The PDF of a wide range of T1 values measured with the varying flip angle (VFA) technique was estimated through numerical simulations of the SPGR equation. The resultant uncertainty in contrast agent concentration was incorporated in the most common model of tracer exchange kinetics and the PDF of the derived pharmacokinetic parameters was studied numerically. Results: The VFA method is an unbiased technique for measuringT1 only in the absence of bias in excitation flip angle. The time-dependent concentration of the contrast agent measured in vivo is within the theoretically predicted uncertainty. The uncertainty in measuring K{sup trans} with SPGR pulse sequences is of the same order, but always higher than, the uncertainty in measuring the pre-injection longitudinal relaxation time (T1{sub 0}). The lowest achievable bias/uncertainty in estimating this parameter is approximately 20%–70% higher than the bias/uncertainty in the measurement of the pre-injection T1 map. The fractional volume parameters derived from the extended Tofts model were found to be extremely sensitive to the variance in signal intensity. The SNR of the pre-injection T1 map indicates the limiting precision with which K{sup trans} can be calculated. Conclusions: Current small-animal imaging systems and pulse sequences robust to motion artifacts have the capacity for reproducible quantitative acquisitions with DCE-MRI. In these circumstances, it is feasible to achieve a level of precision limited only by physiologic variability.

  19. Retrospective Evaluation of Appliance Price Trends

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dale, Larry

    2010-01-01

    the higher the product cost and retail price. Table 3.change and appliance price Room air conditioners Small (price data to clarify price

  20. Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

  1. Understanding Crude Oil Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hamilton, James Douglas

    2008-01-01

    historical data for claiming to be able to predict oil pricehistorical data. The second is to look at the predictions of economic theory as to how oil prices

  2. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Marketing Annual 2001 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II (Continued) PAD District...

  3. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Marketing Annual 2000 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II (Continued) PAD District...

  4. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Marketing Annual 1999 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II (Continued) PAD District...

  5. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Marketing Annual 1998 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II (Continued) PAD District...

  6. Crude Oil Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Marketing Annual 2002 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II (Continued) PAD District...

  7. Pricing an Annuity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pricing an Annuity. Central Indiana Life Insurance Company's customers can use a portion of the funds accumulated in their 401(k) retirement plan to buy an ...

  8. Pricing an Annuity

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    2003-09-02

    Pricing an Annuity. Central Indiana Life Insurance Company 's customers can use a portion of the funds accumulated in their 401(k) retirement plan to buy an ...

  9. Software Price List Windows Applications

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Software Price List Windows Applications Software cannot be returned. Also note that the University support on campus, please go to www.unh.edu/it Number Item Price Number Item Price Prices are subject Item Price Only USNH Departments may purchase software below. A license does not include media

  10. Optimal Uncertainty Quantification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Owhadi, Houman; Sullivan, Timothy John; McKerns, Mike; Ortiz, Michael

    2010-01-01

    We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \\emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ), is based on the observation that, given a set of assumptions and information about the problem, there exist optimal bounds on uncertainties: these are obtained as extreme values of well-defined optimization problems corresponding to extremizing probabilities of failure, or of deviations, subject to the constraints imposed by the scenarios compatible with the assumptions and information. In particular, this framework does not implicitly impose inappropriate assumptions, nor does it repudiate relevant information. Although OUQ optimization problems are extremely large, we show that under general conditions, they have finite-dimensional reductions. As an application, we develop \\emph{Optimal Concentration Inequalities} (OCI) of Hoeffding and McDiarmid type. Surprisingly, contr...

  11. Utility spot pricing, California

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schweppe, Fred C.

    1982-01-01

    The objective of the present spot pricing study carried out for SCE and PG&E is to develop the concepts which wculd lead to an experimental design for spot pricing in the two utilities. The report suggests a set of experiments ...

  12. Visual Exploration of Uncertainty in Remotesensing Classification

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Utrecht, Universiteit

    Visual Exploration of Uncertainty in Remote­sensing Classification Frans J.M. van der Wel Utrecht analysis of remotely­sensed data aims at acquiring insight as to the stability of possible classifications for an overwhelming flow of data on the appearance and condition of our planet. The data yielded by remote sensing can

  13. Price promotions on healthier compared with less healthy foods: a hierarchical regression analysis of the impact on sales and social patterning of responses to promotions in Great Britain

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Nakamura, Ryota; Suhrcke, Marc; Jebb, Susan A.; Pechey, Rachel; Almiron-Roig, Eva; Marteau, Theresa M.

    2015-02-11

    , and brand-specific effects, the sales uplift arising from price promotions was larger in less-healthy than in healthier categories; a 1-SD point increase in the category mean NP score, implying the category becomes less healthy, was associated...

  14. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  15. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  16. Higher Prices from Entry: Pricing of Brand-Name Drugs

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Perloff, Jeffrey M.

    Higher Prices from Entry: Pricing of Brand-Name Drugs Jeffrey M. Perloff* Valerie Y. Suslow** Paul and starts selling a spatially-differentiated product, the prices of existing products may rise due to a better match between consumers and products. Entry may have three unusual effects. First, the new price

  17. Evaluation of the Repeatability of the Delta Q Duct Leakage Testing TechniqueIncluding Investigation of Robust Analysis Techniques and Estimates of Weather Induced Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dickerhoff, Darryl; Walker, Iain

    2008-08-01

    The DeltaQ test is a method of estimating the air leakage from forced air duct systems. Developed primarily for residential and small commercial applications it uses the changes in blower door test results due to forced air system operation. Previous studies established the principles behind DeltaQ testing, but raised issues of precision of the test, particularly for leaky homes on windy days. Details of the measurement technique are available in an ASTM Standard (ASTM E1554-2007). In order to ease adoption of the test method, this study answers questions regarding the uncertainty due to changing weather during the test (particularly changes in wind speed) and the applicability to low leakage systems. The first question arises because the building envelope air flows and pressures used in the DeltaQ test are influenced by weather induced pressures. Variability in wind induced pressures rather than temperature difference induced pressures dominates this effect because the wind pressures change rapidly over the time period of a test. The second question needs to answered so that DeltaQ testing can be used in programs requiring or giving credit for tight ducts (e.g., California's Building Energy Code (CEC 2005)). DeltaQ modeling biases have been previously investigated in laboratory studies where there was no weather induced changes in envelope flows and pressures. Laboratory work by Andrews (2002) and Walker et al. (2004) found biases of about 0.5% of forced air system blower flow and individual test uncertainty of about 2% of forced air system blower flow. The laboratory tests were repeated by Walker and Dickerhoff (2006 and 2008) using a new ramping technique that continuously varied envelope pressures and air flows rather than taking data at pre-selected pressure stations (as used in ASTM E1554-2003 and other previous studies). The biases and individual test uncertainties for ramping were found to be very close (less than 0.5% of air handler flow) to those found in for the pressure station approach. Walker and Dickerhoff also included estimates of DeltaQ test repeatability based on the results of field tests where two houses were tested multiple times. The two houses were quite leaky (20-25 Air Changes per Hour at 50Pa (0.2 in. water) (ACH50)) and were located in the San Francisco Bay area. One house was tested on a calm day and the other on a very windy day. Results were also presented for two additional houses that were tested by other researchers in Minneapolis, MN and Madison, WI, that had very tight envelopes (1.8 and 2.5 ACH50). These tight houses had internal duct systems and were tested without operating the central blower--sometimes referred to as control tests. The standard deviations between the multiple tests for all four houses were found to be about 1% of the envelope air flow at 50 Pa (0.2 in. water) (Q50) that led to the suggestion of this as a rule of thumb for estimating DeltaQ uncertainty. Because DeltaQ is based on measuring envelope air flows it makes sense for uncertainty to scale with envelope leakage. However, these tests were on a limited data set and one of the objectives of the current study is to increase the number of tested houses. This study focuses on answering two questions: (1) What is the uncertainty associated with changes in weather (primarily wind) conditions during DeltaQ testing? (2) How can these uncertainties be reduced? The first question is addressing issues of repeatability. To study this five houses were tested as many times as possible over a day. Weather data was recorded on-site--including the local windspeed. The result from these five houses were combined with the two Bay Area homes from the previous studies. The variability of the tests (represented by the standard deviation) is the repeatability of the test method for that house under the prevailing weather conditions. Because the testing was performed over a day a wide range of wind speeds was achieved following typical diurnal variations of low wind in the early morning and greatest winds in the late afternoon/early

  18. Predicting System Performance with Uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Yan, B.; Malkawi, A.

    2012-01-01

    The main purpose of this research is to include uncertainty that lies in modeling process and that arises from input values when predicting system performance, and to incorporate uncertainty related to system controls in a computationally...

  19. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  20. WIND ENERGY AND NEGATIVE PRICING

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    McCalley, James D.

    at negative prices #12;Wind power and negative prices · Wind power production is related to electricity power integration · Negative prices are "market distortions" that need to be addressed · "PTC aggravatesWIND ENERGY AND NEGATIVE PRICING Is Production Tax Credit to Blame? Yu Wang Iowa State University

  1. Brand the Pricing: Critical Critique 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Alam Kazmi, Syed Hasnain

    2015-01-01

    impact. Management decisions to change prices translate intoto management decision making will translate the change

  2. Competitive Electricity Prices: An Update

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    Illustrates a third impact of the move to competitive generation pricing -- the narrowing of the range of prices across regions of the country. This feature article updates information in Electricity Prices in a Competitive Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing of Generation Services and Financial Status of Electric Utilities.

  3. CANNED FI H RETAIL PRICE

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    CANNED FI H RETAIL PRICE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE I TERI R FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE BUREAU to obtain average retail prices for selected canned fish items. The retail prices as contained herein by the U. S . Department of Labor in order to provide information on price levels in different cities

  4. Crude Oil Prices

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    19.11 18.73 18.63 17.97 18.75 18.10 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

  5. Crude Oil Prices

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    20.86 20.67 20.47 20.24 20.32 19.57 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

  6. Term Pricing Project

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jeff Beckley

    2015-10-29

    Term Pricing Project. Your job is to reprice Purdue Life's 20 Year Term. You are to write a one page memo or report summarizing your work. The report should ...

  7. The Pricing of Electricity to Aluminum Smelters in the Northwest 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Foley, T. J.

    1986-01-01

    prompted Bonneville to search for Innovative pnClng schemes designed to maintain its revenue base Bonneville's proposed strategy Includes tYing the price of electricity it seilS to tne alumlr,u~ smelters to the world price of aluminum. This paper wili... examine Bonneville's proposed pnClng strategy; it will also examine other strategies to reduce uncertainty In the region's future electriC load. BACKGROUND For well over half a century, electrical power has been a cornerstone of the PaCific Northwest...

  8. Metabolic paths in world economy and crude oil price

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Picciolo, Francesco; Ruzzenenti, Franco

    2015-01-01

    In 1983 Hamilton demonstrated the correlation between the price of oil and gross national product for the U.S. economy. A prolific literature followed exploring the potential correlation of oil prices with other important indices like inflation, industrial production, and food prices, using increasingly refined tools. Our work sheds new light on the role of oil prices in shaping the world economy by investigating the metabolic paths of value across trade between 1960 and 2010, by means of Markov Chain analysis. We show that the interdependence of countries' economies are strictly (anti)correlated to the price of oil. We observed a remarkably high correlation of 0.85, unmatched by any former study addressing the correlation between oil price and major economic indicators.

  9. The carbon component of the UK power price

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kris Voorspools

    2006-08-01

    CO{sub 2} emissions trading is in full swing in Europe and is already having an impact on the price of power in the UK. If EU allowances (EUAs) trade at euro 20/t-CO{sub 2}, the EUA component in the power price is estimated to be slightly < euro 10/MW.h. In the case of UK power for delivery 1 year ahead, this is {approximately} 10% of the market price of power. The introduction of a carbon components into the UK power prices took place along before the 'official' start of ETS in 2005. Analysis of historical data of the price of power, gas, coal and EUAs shows that the first trace of a CO{sub 2} component in UK power dates back to August 2003, shortly after EUAs first started to trade. In April 2004, CO{sub 2} was fully integrated into the UK power price. 4 refs., 5 figs.

  10. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  11. SU-E-T-493: Analysis of the Impact of Range and Setup Uncertainties On the Dose to Brain Stem and Whole Brain in the Passively Scattered Proton Therapy Plans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sahoo, N; Zhu, X; Zhang, X; Poenisch, F; Li, H; Wu, R; Lii, M; Umfleet, W; Gillin, M; Mahajan, A; Grosshans, D

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To quantify the impact of range and setup uncertainties on various dosimetric indices that are used to assess normal tissue toxicities of patients receiving passive scattering proton beam therapy (PSPBT). Methods: Robust analysis of sample treatment plans of six brain cancer patients treated with PSPBT at our facility for whom the maximum brain stem dose exceeded 5800 CcGE were performed. The DVH of each plan was calculated in an Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS) version 11 applying ±3.5% range uncertainty and ±3 mm shift of the isocenter in x, y and z directions to account for setup uncertainties. Worst-case dose indices for brain stem and whole brain were compared to their values in the nominal plan to determine the average change in their values. For the brain stem, maximum dose to 1 cc of volume, dose to 10%, 50%, 90% of volume (D10, D50, D90) and volume receiving 6000, 5400, 5000, 4500, 4000 CcGE (V60, V54, V50, V45, V40) were evaluated. For the whole brain, maximum dose to 1 cc of volume, and volume receiving 5400, 5000, 4500, 4000, 3000 CcGE (V54, V50, V45, V40 and V30) were assessed. Results: The average change in the values of these indices in the worst scenario cases from the nominal plan were as follows. Brain stem; Maximum dose to 1 cc of volume: 1.1%, D10: 1.4%, D50: 8.0%, D90:73.3%, V60:116.9%, V54:27.7%, V50: 21.2%, V45:16.2%, V40:13.6%,Whole brain; Maximum dose to 1 cc of volume: 0.3%, V54:11.4%, V50: 13.0%, V45:13.6%, V40:14.1%, V30:13.5%. Conclusion: Large to modest changes in the dosiemtric indices for brain stem and whole brain compared to nominal plan due to range and set up uncertainties were observed. Such potential changes should be taken into account while using any dosimetric parameters for outcome evaluation of patients receiving proton therapy.

  12. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  13. The effects of incorporating dynamic data on estimates of uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mulla, Shahebaz Hisamuddin

    2004-09-30

    analysis. The results were compared with the uncertainty predicted using only static data. We also investigated approaches for best selecting a smaller number of models from a larger set of realizations to be history matched for quantification...

  14. Real options approach to capacity planning under uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Mittal, Geetanjali, 1979-

    2004-01-01

    This thesis highlights the effectiveness of Real Options Analysis (ROA) in capacity planning decisions for engineering projects subject to uncertainty. This is in contrast to the irreversible decision-making proposed by ...

  15. Infill location determination and assessment of corresponding uncertainty 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Senel, Ozgur

    2009-05-15

    , generated probabilistic distributions of incremental field production and, finally, used descriptive statistical analysis to evaluate results. I quantified the uncertainty associated with infill location selection in terms of incremental field production...

  16. Uncertainty in Greenhouse Emissions and Costs of Atmospheric Stabilization

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort D.

    We explore the uncertainty in projections of emissions, and costs of atmospheric stabilization applying the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. ...

  17. Maintaining artificial recharge ponds under uncertainty: a probabilistic approach for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Politècnica de Catalunya, Universitat

    Maintaining artificial recharge ponds under uncertainty: a probabilistic approach for engineering surface ponds (SP) Clogging What is clogging? Mathematical models for clogging Risk formulation Carlo analysis Conclusions #12;Surface ponds (SP) collect selected external water (e.g. regenerated

  18. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 23, NO. 3, AUGUST 2008 877 Electricity Price Curve Modeling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Huo, Xiaoming

    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 23, NO. 3, AUGUST 2008 877 Electricity Price Curve approach for the modeling and analysis of electricity price curves by ap- plying the manifold learning results using historical price data taken from the Eastern U.S. electric power markets. Index Terms--Electricity

  19. Fact #766: February 11, 2013 Electricity Prices are More Stable...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    6: February 11, 2013 Electricity Prices are More Stable than Gasoline Prices Fact 766: February 11, 2013 Electricity Prices are More Stable than Gasoline Prices All energy prices...

  20. 15.818 Pricing, Spring 2005

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Tucker, Catherine

    This course, primarily discussion based, provides a framework for understanding pricing strategies and tactics. Topics covered include pricing in competitive markets, estimating demand, price discrimination, the role of ...

  1. Real Estate Prices and Economic Cycles

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Quigley, John M.

    2002-01-01

    in construction and price development were synchronized with3 Models of Housing price Development Based on EconomicTable 4 Models of Housing Price Development Based on Lagged

  2. Economic History Revisited: New Uncertainties

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    to the southern and midwestern regions of the United States. However, the large run-up in oil prices is increasing shown vacancy rates higher than the historical average, while companies seeking properties for sale are paying ever-increasing prices for fewer available sites. Warehouse sites in the southern portion

  3. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulness of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (?/E = 7 · 10??) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (?/E = 14 · 10??).

  4. Estimation of uncertainty for contour method residual stress measurements

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Olson, Mitchell D.; DeWald, Adrian T.; Prime, Michael B.; Hill, Michael R.

    2014-12-03

    This paper describes a methodology for the estimation of measurement uncertainty for the contour method, where the contour method is an experimental technique for measuring a two-dimensional map of residual stress over a plane. Random error sources including the error arising from noise in displacement measurements and the smoothing of the displacement surfaces are accounted for in the uncertainty analysis. The output is a two-dimensional, spatially varying uncertainty estimate such that every point on the cross-section where residual stress is determined has a corresponding uncertainty value. Both numerical and physical experiments are reported, which are used to support the usefulnessmore »of the proposed uncertainty estimator. The uncertainty estimator shows the contour method to have larger uncertainty near the perimeter of the measurement plane. For the experiments, which were performed on a quenched aluminum bar with a cross section of 51 × 76 mm, the estimated uncertainty was approximately 5 MPa (?/E = 7 · 10??) over the majority of the cross-section, with localized areas of higher uncertainty, up to 10 MPa (?/E = 14 · 10??).« less

  5. Fairness and dynamic pricing: comments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hogan, William W.

    2010-07-15

    In ''The Ethics of Dynamic Pricing,'' Ahmad Faruqui lays out a case for improved efficiency in using dynamic prices for retail electricity tariffs and addresses various issues about the distributional effects of alternative pricing mechanisms. The principal contrast is between flat or nearly constant energy prices and time-varying prices that reflect more closely the marginal costs of energy and capacity. The related issues of fairness criteria, contracts, risk allocation, cost allocation, means testing, real-time pricing, and ethical policies of electricity market design also must be considered. (author)

  6. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  7. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Instituto de Sistemas e Robotica

    Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids Submitted in partial fulfillment;iii Abstract Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts prices. Wind power forecast errors for aggregated wind farms are often modeled with Gaussian

  8. Why did British electricity prices fall after 1998?

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Evans, Joanne

    2003-01-01

    In an attempt to reduce high electricity prices in England and Wales the government has reduced concentration among generators and introduced New Electricity Trading Arrangements (NETA). Econometric analysis on monthly ...

  9. Fuel Prices and New Vehicle Fuel Economy in Europe

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Klier, Thomas

    This paper evaluates the effect of fuel prices on new vehicle fuel economy in the eight largest European markets. The analysis spans the years 2002–2007 and uses detailed vehicle registration and specification data to ...

  10. Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 12, boulevard des Iles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

    2012-07-01

    In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised electricity market, looking at the impact of the seven key variables and provide conclusions on the portfolio that a utility would be advised to maintain, given the need to limit risks but also to move to low carbon power generation. Such portfolio diversification would not only limit financial investor risk, but also a number of non-financial risks (climate change, security of supply, accidents). (authors)

  11. Assessment and Propagation of Model Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    David Draper

    2011-01-01

    1982). Outlook for World Oil Prices. Washington DC: U. S.Case N-2524-RC, of Oil Prices. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.run. But, in view of the oil price example, which is worse—

  12. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    papers indicating crude oil price shocks as a contributingdifferent measures of the crude oil price volatility series.of real average crude oil prices from 1957Q1 to 2010Q1

  13. Washington Natural Gas Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google5.10 5.24 5.29 5.84 5.08 4.25 1989-2015 Residential Price 11.35 12.13 12.37 12.57 11.71 11.24 1989-2015 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0

  14. Diesel prices decrease

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural Gas Usage FormDiesel pricesDiesel pricesDiesel

  15. Diesel prices decrease

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural Gas Usage FormDiesel pricesDieselDiesel prices

  16. Diesel prices slightly decrease

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet) Wyoming Dry Natural GasNatural Gas UsageDiesel prices increaseDiesel prices

  17. The effects of consumer information and cost-sharing on healthcare prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Whaley, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    1.2.3 Price Transparency . . . . . . . . . .Provider Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Physician Price Responses to Price

  18. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1990-01-01

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given 7 refs., 2 tabs.

  19. Uncertainty estimates for derivatives and intercepts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clark, E.L.

    1994-09-01

    Straight line least squares fits of experimental data are widely used in the analysis of test results to provide derivatives and intercepts. A method for evaluating the uncertainty in these parameters is described. The method utilizes conventional least squares results and is applicable to experiments where the independent variable is controlled, but not necessarily free of error. A Monte Carlo verification of the method is given.

  20. Rethinking Real Time Electricity Pricing

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Allcott, Hunt

    Most US consumers are charged a near-constant retail price for electricity, despite substantial hourly variation in the wholesale market price. This paper evaluates the .rst program to expose residential consumers to hourly ...

  1. Buyout prices in online auctions

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Gupta, Shobhit

    2006-01-01

    Buyout options allow bidders to instantly purchase at a specified price an item listed for sale through an online auction. A temporary buyout option disappears once a regular bid above the reserve price is made, while a ...

  2. Asset Prices and Exchange Rates

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pavlova, Anna

    2004-11-30

    This paper develops a simple two-country, two-good model, in which the real exchange rate, stock and bond prices are jointly determined. The model predicts that stock market prices are correlated ...

  3. Best Buys and Unit Pricing 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Anding, Jenna

    2000-02-02

    This guide explains how to determine a unit price--the cost of an item based on a specific unit such as pound or ounce. Unit pricing can be used to identify foods that are the most economical....

  4. Price Philanthropies Ocean Science Education: Aquarium

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hampton, Randy

    ! ! ! ! ! Price Philanthropies Ocean Science Education: Aquarium Express Outreach Who: Students by The Price Philanthropies Ocean Science Fund and participate in our Aquarium Express Outreach Programs! What education, Price Philanthropies, led by Robert and Allison Price, joined supporters of Birch Aquarium

  5. The impact of uncertainty and risk measures

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

    2012-01-01

    Industrial production, oil production, oil price and oilvariables in the VAR, oil production quantity as well as oilquarterly global crude oil production, crude oil price and

  6. Measurement uncertainty of adsorption testing of desiccant materials

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bingham, C E; Pesaran, A A

    1988-12-01

    The technique of measurement uncertainty analysis as described in the current ANSI/ASME standard is applied to the testing of desiccant materials in SERI`s Sorption Test Facility. This paper estimates the elemental precision and systematic errors in these tests and propagates them separately to obtain the resulting uncertainty of the test parameters, including relative humidity ({plus_minus}.03) and sorption capacity ({plus_minus}.002 g/g). Errors generated by instrument calibration, data acquisition, and data reduction are considered. Measurement parameters that would improve the uncertainty of the results are identified. Using the uncertainty in the moisture capacity of a desiccant, the design engineer can estimate the uncertainty in performance of a dehumidifier for desiccant cooling systems with confidence. 6 refs., 2 figs., 8 tabs.

  7. Relationship Between Wind Generation and Balancing Energy Market Prices in ERCOT: 2007-2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nicholson, E.; Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2010-11-01

    This paper attempts to measure the average marginal effects of wind generation on the balancing-energy market price in ERCOT with the help of econometric analysis.

  8. Ethanol's Effect on Grain Supply and Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2008-01-01

    This document provides graphical information about ethanol's effect on grain supply and prices, uses of corn, and grain price trends.

  9. Energy Prices and California's Economic

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Sadoulet, Elisabeth

    months, with national unemployment at 25 year highs, retail U.S. gasoline prices have risen 40 percent1 Energy Prices and California's Economic Security David RolandHolst October, 2009 on Energy Prices, Renewables, Efficiency, and Economic Growth: Scenarios and Forecasts, financial support

  10. Essays On Hybrid Bundle Pricing 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Meyer, Jeffrey Dean

    2011-10-21

    model of optimal pricing for hybrid bundles by a monopolist. My results show that an increase in quality variability of the service is generally associated with a higher optimal hybrid bundle price and a lower optimal price of the good, but lower overall...

  11. Pine pulpwood prices reached re-

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Pine pulpwood prices reached re- cord highs due to strong pulp and paper demand and lumber production curtailment. In contrast, sawlog prices continued their downward movement in November/December statewide av- erage pine sawlog prices decreased to $36.72/ton, a 4.3% drop for the period and a 14.1% drop

  12. Supporting qualified database for uncertainty evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Petruzzi, A.; Fiori, F.; Kovtonyuk, A.; D'Auria, F. [Nuclear Research Group of San Piero A Grado, Univ. of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, 56122 Pisa (Italy)

    2012-07-01

    Uncertainty evaluation constitutes a key feature of BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) process. The uncertainty can be the result of a Monte Carlo type analysis involving input uncertainty parameters or the outcome of a process involving the use of experimental data and connected code calculations. Those uncertainty methods are discussed in several papers and guidelines (IAEA-SRS-52, OECD/NEA BEMUSE reports). The present paper aims at discussing the role and the depth of the analysis required for merging from one side suitable experimental data and on the other side qualified code calculation results. This aspect is mostly connected with the second approach for uncertainty mentioned above, but it can be used also in the framework of the first approach. Namely, the paper discusses the features and structure of the database that includes the following kinds of documents: 1. The' RDS-facility' (Reference Data Set for the selected facility): this includes the description of the facility, the geometrical characterization of any component of the facility, the instrumentations, the data acquisition system, the evaluation of pressure losses, the physical properties of the material and the characterization of pumps, valves and heat losses; 2. The 'RDS-test' (Reference Data Set for the selected test of the facility): this includes the description of the main phenomena investigated during the test, the configuration of the facility for the selected test (possible new evaluation of pressure and heat losses if needed) and the specific boundary and initial conditions; 3. The 'QR' (Qualification Report) of the code calculation results: this includes the description of the nodalization developed following a set of homogeneous techniques, the achievement of the steady state conditions and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transient with the characterization of the Relevant Thermal-Hydraulics Aspects (RTA); 4. The EH (Engineering Handbook) of the input nodalization: this includes the rationale adopted for each part of the nodalization, the user choices, and the systematic derivation and justification of any value present in the code input respect to the values as indicated in the RDS-facility and in the RDS-test. (authors)

  13. Assessment of Summer 1997 motor gasoline price increase

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-05-01

    Gasoline markets in 1996 and 1997 provided several spectacular examples of petroleum market dynamics. The first occurred in spring 1996, when tight markets, following a long winter of high demand, resulted in rising crude oil prices just when gasoline prices exhibit their normal spring rise ahead of the summer driving season. Rising crude oil prices again pushed gasoline prices up at the end of 1996, but a warm winter and growing supplies weakened world crude oil markets, pushing down crude oil and gasoline prices during spring 1997. The 1996 and 1997 spring markets provided good examples of how crude oil prices can move gasoline prices both up and down, regardless of the state of the gasoline market in the United States. Both of these spring events were covered in prior Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports. As the summer of 1997 was coming to a close, consumers experienced yet another surge in gasoline prices. Unlike the previous increase in spring 1996, crude oil was not a factor. The late summer 1997 price increase was brought about by the supply/demand fundamentals in the gasoline markets, rather than the crude oil markets. The nature of the summer 1997 gasoline price increase raised questions regarding production and imports. Given very strong demand in July and August, the seemingly limited supply response required examination. In addition, the price increase that occurred on the West Coast during late summer exhibited behavior different than the increase east of the Rocky Mountains. Thus, the Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 5 region needed additional analysis (Appendix A). This report is a study of this late summer gasoline market and some of the important issues surrounding that event.

  14. ImpactMap: Designing Sustainable Supply Chains by Incorporating Data Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Fuge, Mark; McKinstry, Katherine; Ninomiya, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    Analyzing Uncertainty in Life- Cycle Assessment: A Survey ofissues in data quality analysis in life cycle assessment. ”International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 17 (1): pp.

  15. Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

    2014-11-01

    Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

  16. Delivery and Hedging Delivery ties the futures price to the spot price.

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Lyuu, Yuh-Dauh

    Delivery and Hedging · Delivery ties the futures price to the spot price. · On the delivery date, the settlement price of the futures contract is determined by the spot price. · Hence, when the delivery period is reached, the futures price should be very close to the spot price. · Changes in futures prices usually

  17. Uncertainty Quantification and Calibration in Well Construction Cost Estimates 

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Valdes Machado, Alejandro

    2013-08-05

    , it is possible to assess the probabilities of cost overruns, understand the accuracy of the estimates and provide identification of risk factors in the well construction operations. Capen (1976) claimed we have not learned to successfully deal with uncertainty... of the project. Both issues contribute to inefficient capital budgeting. Using a probabilistic methodology is not sufficient to assess the uncertainty reliably. Look-backs, which are based on the analysis of past estimations, are required to provide more...

  18. Understanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices Over the Past Decade

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2011-10-26

    Taking a bottom-up approach, this report examines seven primary drivers of wind turbine prices in the United States, with the goal of estimating the degree to which each contributed to the doubling in turbine prices from 2002 through 2008, as well as the subsequent decline in prices through 2010 (our analysis does not extend into 2011 because several of these drivers are best gauged on a full-year basis due to seasonality issues). The first four of these drivers can be considered, at least to some degree, endogenous influences – i.e., those that are largely within the control of the wind industry – and include changes in: 1) Labor costs, which have historically risen during times of tight turbine supply; 2) Warranty provisions, which reflect technology performance and reliability, and are most often capitalized in turbine prices; 3) Turbine manufacturer profitability, which can impact turbine prices independently of costs; and 4) Turbine design, which for the purpose of this analysis is principally manifested through increased turbine size. The other three drivers analyzed in this study can be considered exogenous influences, in that they can impact wind turbine costs but fall mostly outside of the direct control of the wind industry. These exogenous drivers include changes in: 5) Raw materials prices, which affect the cost of inputs to the manufacturing process; 6) Energy prices, which impact the cost of manufacturing and transporting turbines; and 7) Foreign exchange rates, which can impact the dollar amount paid for turbines and components imported into the United States.

  19. Reducing Transaction Costs for Energy Efficiency Investments and Analysis of Economic Risk Associated With Building Performance Uncertainties: Small Buildings and Small Portfolios Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Langner, R.; Hendron, B.; Bonnema, E.

    2014-08-01

    The small buildings and small portfolios (SBSP) sector face a number of barriers that inhibit SBSP owners from adopting energy efficiency solutions. This pilot project focused on overcoming two of the largest barriers to financing energy efficiency in small buildings: disproportionately high transaction costs and unknown or unacceptable risk. Solutions to these barriers can often be at odds, because inexpensive turnkey solutions are often not sufficiently tailored to the unique circumstances of each building, reducing confidence that the expected energy savings will be achieved. To address these barriers, NREL worked with two innovative, forward-thinking lead partners, Michigan Saves and Energi, to develop technical solutions that provide a quick and easy process to encourage energy efficiency investments while managing risk. The pilot project was broken into two stages: the first stage focused on reducing transaction costs, and the second stage focused on reducing performance risk. In the first stage, NREL worked with the non-profit organization, Michigan Saves, to analyze the effects of 8 energy efficiency measures (EEMs) on 81 different baseline small office building models in Holland, Michigan (climate zone 5A). The results of this analysis (totaling over 30,000 cases) are summarized in a simple spreadsheet tool that enables users to easily sort through the results and find appropriate small office EEM packages that meet a particular energy savings threshold and are likely to be cost-effective.

  20. Price Discovery in Time and Space: The Course of Condominium Prices in Singapore

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Hwang, Min; Quigley, John M.

    2007-01-01

    Method for Real Estate Price Index Construction,” Journal ofAutocorrelation in House Prices,” Journal of Real Estate1997), “Quotes, Order Flow, and Price Discovery,” Journal of

  1. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    approach to evaluating price risk would be to use suchthe base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsorange of different plausible price projections, using either

  2. Patterns of Pass-through of Commodity Price Shocks to Retail Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Berck, Peter; Leibtag, Ephraim S.; Villas-Boas, Sofia B.; Solis, Alex

    2009-01-01

    B. 1975. “The Farm-Retail Price Spread in a Competitive Foodthe Income Effect: Gasoline Prices and Grocery Purchases. ”2004. “Patterns of Retail Price Variation. ” The RAND

  3. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    range of different plausible price projections, using eitherthat renewables can provide price certainty over even longerof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

  4. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark A.

    2010-01-01

    range of different plausible price projections, using eitherreference-case fuel price projection from the EIA or someprices and the AEO gas price projections over the past two

  5. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  6. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark

    2008-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  7. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  8. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-01

    Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

  9. Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

    Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

  10. The Role of Stocks and Shocks Concepts in the Debate Over Price versus Quantity*

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    The Role of Stocks and Shocks Concepts in the Debate Over Price versus Quantity* John E. Parsons interactions among natural and human climate system components; objectively assess uncertainty in economic, monitor and verify greenhouse gas emissions and climatic impacts. This reprint is one of a series intended

  11. Policy Uncertainty and Household Savings

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Giavazzi, Francesco

    Using German microdata and a quasi-natural experiment, we provide evidence on how households respond to an increase in uncertainty. We find that household saving increases significantly following the increase in political ...

  12. Game Theory for auctions Uncertainty

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Dignum, Frank

    widenarrow¬drillThe world is uncertain: 60% chance for oil 40% chance of no oil -29,-2-29,-16-29,0wide -16 in static games #12;Exogenous uncertainty, static 1,116,-131,0wide -1,1614,1444,0narrow 0,310,440,0¬drill,-2-16,-16-16,0narrow 0,-290,-160,0¬drill widenarrow¬drill #12;Exogenous uncertainty, static Combine the two possible

  13. Essays on Automotive Lending, Gasoline Prices, & Automotive Demand

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Schulz-Mahlendorf, Wilko Ziggy

    2013-01-01

    Gasoline PriceResponse to Chang- ing Gasoline Prices,” unpublishedShort-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. ,” The Energy

  14. Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Density Functional Theory and Information Content of New Measurements Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Quantification...

  15. Regional variations in US residential sector fuel prices: implications for development of building energy performance standards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.; Secrest, T.J.

    1981-03-01

    The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for Energy Performance Standards for New Buildings presented life-cycle-cost based energy budgets for single-family detached residences. These energy budgets varied with regional climatic conditions but were all based on projections of national average prices for gas, oil and electricity. The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking indicated that further analysis of the appropriateness of various price measures for use in setting the Standards was under way. This part of that ongoing analysis addresses the availability of fuel price projections, the variation in fuel prices and escalation rates across the US and the effects of aggregating city price data to the state, Region, or national level. The study only provides a portion of the information required to identify the best price aggregation level for developing of the standards. The research addresses some of the economic efficiency considerations necessary for design of a standard that affects heterogeneous regions. The first section discusses the effects of price variation among and within regions on the efficiency of resource allocation when a standard is imposed. Some evidence of the extreme variability in fuel prices across the US is presented. In the second section, time series, cross-sectional fuel price data are statistically analyzed to determine the similarity in mean fuel prices and price escalation rates when the data are treated at increasing levels of aggregation. The findings of this analysis are reported in the third section, while the appendices contain price distributions details. The last section reports the availability of price projections and discusses some EIA projections compared with actual prices.

  16. NIST Special Publication 1181 Unit Pricing Guide

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    NIST Special Publication 1181 Unit Pricing Guide "A Best Practice Approach to Unit Pricing" Product Identity and Size Retail Price Unit Price Miscellaneous Information (Retailer Specific) Editor David Sefcik #12;THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK #12;NIST Special Publication 1181 Unit Pricing Guide "A Best

  17. Postgraduate Scholarship Pricing temperature derivatives and modelling

    E-Print Network [OSTI]

    Banaji,. Murad

    the volumetric risk of the energy units sold, rather than the price risk of each unit. Weather derivativesPostgraduate Scholarship Pricing temperature derivatives and modelling the market price of risk: Pricing temperature derivatives and modelling the market price of risk. Main Supervisor: A. Alexandridis

  18. Georgia Natural Gas Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home PageMonthly","10/2015"4,"Ames5 Tables July 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear, ElectricRhodeFeet) Decadefrom AllResidentialImports Price

  19. Hawaii Natural Gas Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home PageMonthly","10/2015"4,"Ames5 Tables July 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Coal, Nuclear, ElectricRhodeFeet)CubicCitygate Price 17.82 22.94 31.58 32.39

  20. Oil Price Volatility

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Homesum_a_epg0_fpd_mmcf_m.xls" ,"Available from WebQuantity of Natural GasAdjustments (Billion Cubic Feet)Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3+ LeaseWellhead Price