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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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1

Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating 4.1 Oil Prices...............................................................................................14 4.1.1 Analysis of historical oil prices........................................................15

Bhulai, Sandjai

2

Uncertainty analysis of an aviation climate model and an aircraft price model for assessment of environmental effects  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Estimating, presenting, and assessing uncertainties are important parts in assessment of a complex system. This thesis focuses on the assessment of uncertainty in the price module and the climate module in the Aviation ...

Jun, Mina

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Essays on pricing under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sales from sales under average conditions, it presents is the first study to show empirical evidence of peak load pricing in airlines. (5) It controls for potential endogeneity of sales using dynamic panels. The first essay tests the empirical importance...

Escobari Urday, Diego Alfonso

2008-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

4

Uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software.

Thomas, R.E.

1982-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Analysis of Strategies of Companies under Carbon Constraint: Relationship between Profit Structure of Companies and Carbon/Fuel Price Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper examines the relationship between future carbon prices and the expected profit of companies by case studies with model companies. As the future carbon price will vary significantly in accordance with the political ...

Hashimoto, Susumu

6

A REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

deterministic forward commodity price which, in most cases, historical data demonstrates to be quite volatileA REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY Meimei Zhang and operating cash flow. This industry is usually considered high risk because of historically volatile

Duffy, Ken

7

Volatile coal prices reflect supply, demand uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Coal mine owners and investors say that supply and demand are now finally in balance. But coal consumers find that both spot tonnage and new contract coal come at a much higher price.

Ryan, M.

2004-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

8

The optimal harvesting problem with price uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Jul 1, 2011 ... 0 ? c(t) ? CAX(t) where. C = (1 0 ...... 0) . (6). We will study two different dynamics of prices: Geometric Brownian Mo- tion (GBM) and ...

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

9

Optimal Capacity Investment, and Pricing Across International Markets Under Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Duopoly Competition.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??In this dissertation we investigate joint optimal capacity investment, pricing and production decisions for a multinational manufacturer who faces exchange rate uncertainties. We consider a… (more)

Ahmed, Anas A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

global gasoline and diesel price and income elasticities.shift in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand.Habits and Uncertain Relative Prices: Simulating Petrol Con-

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

per capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these areby ‡uctuations in the crude oil price. The overall mean realcandidates are the crude oil price and the tax level. Both

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these are theprices are driven by oil prices, moreover, and oil isby ‡uctuations in the crude oil price. The overall mean real

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Reservation Price Estimation by Adaptive Conjoint Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Reservation Price Estimation by Adaptive Conjoint Analysis Christoph Breidert1 , Michael Hahsler1 applied the eco- nomic definition of reservation price in combination with a conjoint study on product pricing. In this paper we present a novel approach to estimate the economic reser- vation price using

Schmidt-Thieme, Lars

14

Effects of the Uncertainty about Global Economic Recovery on Energy Transition and CO2 Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper examines the impact that uncertainty over economic growth may have on global energy transition and CO2 prices. We use a general-equilibrium model derived from MERGE, and define several stochastic scenarios for ...

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

15

Application of price uncertainty quantification models and their impacts on project evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(EIA),16 the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is projected to average $68 per barrel in both 2006 and 2007. 2.2 Uncertainty in Petroleum Project Evaluations The literature indicates an informal distinction between ?risk...

Fariyibi, Festus Lekan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

16

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sterner. 1991. Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: A2011. Measuring global gasoline and diesel price and incomeMutairi. 1995. Demand for gasoline in Kuwait: An empirical

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

17

Investment and Pricing with Spectrum Uncertainty: A Cognitive Operator's Perspective  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

" of licensed bands and dynamically leasing from the spectrum owner. As a result, a C-MVNO can make flexible--Cognitive radio, spectrum trading, spectrum sensing, dynamic spectrum leasing, spectrum pricing, Stackelberg game affecting the normal oper- ation of the spectrum owner who serves the primary (licensed) users. Dynamic

Huang, Jianwei

18

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

analysis of the demand for oil in the Middle East. EnergyEstimates elasticity of demand for crude oil, not gasoline.World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model.

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

COST AND PRICE ANALYSIS--AN EXPLANATION Some form of price or cost analysis should be performed in connection with every procurement action,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

06/06 COST AND PRICE ANALYSIS--AN EXPLANATION Some form of price or cost analysis should, and the pricing situation. Determination of price reasonableness through price or cost analysis is required even purchases, price analysis alone will be sufficient; in others, price analysis will be used to corroborate

Weston, Ken

20

Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments. Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments. Abstract: A...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

22

Bayesian Environmetrics: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(joint work with Bruno Mendes) Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics University of California and analysis of variance tools provide sensitivity analysis insight. -- Model uncertainty audit shows, as an energy source, has been employed in the United States and Europe for more than 50 years, and yet

Draper, David

23

COST AND PRICE ANALYSIS WORKSHEET Name of Subcontractor  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

COST AND PRICE ANALYSIS WORKSHEET Name of Subcontractor: The following worksheet is provided. Please call SRS 644-8654 if you have questions about this worksheet. Price Analysis was conducted based person, phone number andother pertinent information. Published price lists form 2 or more vendors; fax

Weston, Ken

24

Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

shift in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand.A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand.2007. Consumer demand un- der price uncertainty: Empirical

Scott, K. Rebecca

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Application Form Certificate Program in Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Uncertainty Analysis (3 credits): Nuclear Engineering 602 Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers of Engineering University of Wisconsin-Madison Personal Information: Name: __________________________ Department of Engineering Physics, College of Engineering, UW-Madison, 147 Engineering Research Building, 1500 Engineering

Van Veen, Barry D.

26

DOE Publishes Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

a new report, SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning. The report was created in response to requests from utilities and energy efficiency...

27

IPA Phase 2 sensitivity and uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The NRC`s Phase 2 Iterative Performance Assessment (IPA) used Monte Carlo techniques to propagate uncertainty for up to 297 independent variables and nine scenarios through computer models representing the performance of the Yucca Mountain repository. The NRC staff explored the use of a number of parametric and non-parametric tests and graphical methods to display the probabilistic results. Parametric tests included regression and differential analysis. Non-parametric tests included the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Sign test. Graphical methods included the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF), hair diagram, scatter plots, histograms and box plots. Multiple linear regression of raw, ranked, standardized and other transformed variables determined the gross sensitivity over the parameter space. CCDF`s were also generated from subsets of the 400 vector sets formed by screening the vectors according to values of derived variables related to the behavior of the engineered and natural systems. While no single statistical or graphical technique proved to be useful in all cases, diverse methods of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified the same important input parameters.

Colten-Bradley, V.; Codell, R.; Byrne, M.R. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

28

Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.

Johnson, Jay Dean (ProStat, Mesa, AZ); Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Uncertainty Budget Analysis for Dimensional Inspection Processes (U)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper is intended to provide guidance and describe how to prepare an uncertainty analysis of a dimensional inspection process through the utilization of an uncertainty budget analysis. The uncertainty analysis is stated in the same methodology as that of the ISO GUM standard for calibration and testing. There is a specific distinction between how Type A and Type B uncertainty analysis is used in a general and specific process. All theory and applications are utilized to represent both a generalized approach to estimating measurement uncertainty and how to report and present these estimations for dimensional measurements in a dimensional inspection process. The analysis of this uncertainty budget shows that a well-controlled dimensional inspection process produces a conservative process uncertainty, which can be attributed to the necessary assumptions in place for best possible results.

Valdez, Lucas M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

30

Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated Response to Dynamic Pricing  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Controlling electric loads to deliver power system services presents a number of interesting challenges. For example, changes in electricity consumption of Commercial and Industrial (C&I) facilities are usually estimated using counterfactual baseline models, and model uncertainty makes it difficult to precisely quantify control responsiveness. Moreover, C&I facilities exhibit variability in their response. This paper seeks to understand baseline model error and demand-side variability in responses to open-loop control signals (i.e. dynamic prices). Using a regression-based baseline model, we define several Demand Response (DR) parameters, which characterize changes in electricity use on DR days, and then present a method for computing the error associated with DR parameter estimates. In addition to analyzing the magnitude of DR parameter error, we develop a metric to determine how much observed DR parameter variability is attributable to real event-to-event variability versus simply baseline model error. Using data from 38 C&I facilities that participated in an automated DR program in California, we find that DR parameter errors are large. For most facilities, observed DR parameter variability is likely explained by baseline model error, not real DR parameter variability; however, a number of facilities exhibit real DR parameter variability. In some cases, the aggregate population of C&I facilities exhibits real DR parameter variability, resulting in implications for the system operator with respect to both resource planning and system stability.

Mathieu, Johanna L.; Callaway, Duncan S.; Kiliccote, Sila

2011-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

31

Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives.

Benjamin, U.S.; Boyd, G.J.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NY,t#5;1 #1; di#15;pChi,t#5;1 #1; ei#15;pLA,t#5;1 #1; eit. (9) 13 We observe prices in the BLS data set for a much longer time period than we observe smoking choices in the NELS. Thus our analysis of smoking behavior reported in section IV of this paper...-test for the null hypothesis that ci #2; di #2; ei #2; 0 for the 24 cities that are not New York, Chicago, or Los Angeles. We find that the null hypothesis is rejected for 15 out the 24 cities at 5%. But we can only reject the null at 1% three times. We then pick...

Coppejans, Mark; Gilleskie, Donna; Sieg, Holger; Strumpf, Koleman

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy… (more)

Sener, Adil Caner

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

An econometric analysis of prices for Texas grapefruit  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

" Price F. o. b. Price. Prcccssed Grapefruit Price Fouat'on. I". ethod of Statisticei Analysis. Data. . 76 I m f L jo / '-'2 Zquatior G. "-, fruit Texas. "rash Grape ru m J. exes ~ !I Qy F. o. I" orida. "Gn F. o. ~r ce it Pci. ce Ejlu... + . 00370y (. 191) (. 00083) Xf = 6. 441 Means: Xz Where: Xz. q y . 437q + . 00000y 11 3067 X? 9 2067 Xf ? 2 1000 q 9 o333 y 1666 GG G. S. azu:ual average retail pr'ce for orapefruit (cents per pound) U. S. annual averag fam-retail price spread...

Gutierrez-Villarreal, Jorge

1967-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

was done in the framework of a research project on model uncertainty at HSBC-CCF, Division of Market

36

Analysis of S-Circuit Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The theory of sensori-computational circuits provides a capable framework for the description and optimization of robotic systems, including on-line optimizations. This theory, however, is inadequate in that it does not account for uncertainty in a...

Ahmed, Taahir

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

37

Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

38

An economic and statistical analysis of pecan prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AN ECONOMIC AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OP PECAN PRICES A Thesis by KARLENE SHARON HERTEL Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of NASTER OP SCIENCE August 1979 Maj... or Subject: Agricultural Economics AN ECONOMIC AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PECAN PRICES A Thesis by KARLENE SHARON HERTEL Approved as to style and content by: ( hairman of Committ ) ead of Depar ment) (Member) (Member) August 1979 ABSTRACT...

Hertel, Karlene Sharon

1979-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

Wells, C.

1992-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior In California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior In California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000...

Joskow, Paul; Kahn, Edward

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis Skepticism about climate change for other countries. · Skepticism and uncertainty are related but different aspects of climate change perceptions. In the literature, skepticism often relates to whether people believe climate change is happening

Hall, Sharon J.

42

Price Realism Analysis| An Examination of an Area Ripe for Reform.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? The purpose of this thesis is to explore the confusion and misapplication of price realism analysis in evaluations of firm-fixed price contracts and to… (more)

Bernstein, Alexis J.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

43

Analysis of leaded and unleaded gasoline pricing. Final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes the evaluation of the cost price relation between the two fuels. The original scope of work identified three separate categories of effort: Gather and organize available data on the wholesale and retail prices of gasoline at a national level for the past 5 years. Using the data collected in Subtask 1, develop models of pricing practices that aid in explaining retail markups and price differentials for different types and grades of gasoline at different retail outlets in the current gasoline market. Using the data from Subtask 1 and the analysis framework from Subtask 2, analyze the likely range of future retail markups and price differentials for different grades of leaded and unleaded gasoline. The report is organized in a format that is different than suggested by the subtasks outlined above. The first section provides a characterization of the problem - data available to quantify cost and price of the fuels as well as issues that directly affect this relationship. The second section provides a discussion of issues likely to affect this relation in the future. The third section postulates a model that can be used to quantify the relation between fuels, octane levels, costs and prices.

Not Available

1985-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

44

EIA - Analysis of Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines About U.S.30Natural Gas Glossary529 633 622 56623Primary Metals (33)923Prices 2010 Peaks,

45

Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Dante is an 18 channel X-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g. hohlraums, etc.) at X-ray energies between 50 eV to 10 keV. It is a main diagnostics installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the X-ray diodes, filters and mirrors and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determined flux using a Monte-Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.

May, M J; Widmann, K; Sorce, C; Park, H; Schneider, M

2010-05-07T23:59:59.000Z

46

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

47

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models.

Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models.

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Grupa, J.B. [Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (Netherlands)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

49

System architecture analysis and selection under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A system architecture analysis and selection methodology is presented that builds on the Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization framework. It addresses a need and opportunity to extend the MAO techniques to include a ...

Smaling, Rudolf M

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Robust Efficient Frontier Analysis with a Separable Uncertainty Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Robust Efficient Frontier Analysis with a Separable Uncertainty Model Seung-Jean Kim Stephen Boyd efficient frontier, i.e., the optimal trade-off curve in terms of worst-case MV preference, as the extension of the efficient frontier to the worst-case MV analysis setting. We establish some basic properties of the robust

51

Tariff-based analysis of commercial building electricity prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

4 Calculation of Electricity Prices 4.1 Averageaverage seasonal and annual electricity prices by region inbased annual average electricity price vs. annual energy

Coughlin, Katie M.; Bolduc, Chris A.; Rosenquist, Greg J.; Van Buskirk, Robert D.; McMahon, James E.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

ANALYSIS OF FUTURE PRICES AND MARKETS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 ANALYSIS OF FUTURE PRICES AND MARKETS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS BY JOSEPH MULHOLLAND temperature superconductors (HTS) may impact the national electrical system over the next 25 years dollars. However, the savings from superconductivity are offset somewhat by the high cost of manufacturing

53

Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This is a collaborative proposal that aims at developing new methods for the analysis and reduction of complex multiscale networks under uncertainty. The approach is based on combining methods of computational singular perturbation (CSP) and probabilistic uncertainty quantification. In deterministic settings, CSP yields asymptotic approximations of reduced-dimensionality “slow manifolds” on which a multiscale dynamical system evolves. Introducing uncertainty raises fundamentally new issues, particularly concerning its impact on the topology of slow manifolds, and means to represent and quantify associated variability. To address these challenges, this project uses polynomial chaos (PC) methods to reformulate uncertain network models, and to analyze them using CSP in probabilistic terms. Specific objectives include (1) developing effective algorithms that can be used to illuminate fundamental and unexplored connections among model reduction, multiscale behavior, and uncertainty, and (2) demonstrating the performance of these algorithms through applications to model problems.

Knio, Omar M

2014-04-09T23:59:59.000Z

54

Analysis of Competitive Electricity Markets under a New Model of Real-Time Retail Pricing with  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis of Competitive Electricity Markets under a New Model of Real-Time Retail Pricing with Ex for Information and Decision Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA {mardavij, mdrine loop system. Under this pricing mechanism, electricity is priced at the exant´e price (calculated based

Bhatia, Sangeeta

55

Price analysis in electronic marketing of Texas feeder cattle  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ANALYSIS IN ELECTRONIC MARKETING OF TEXAS FEEDER CATTLE A Thesis by KATHLEEN ANN MAHONEY Approved as to style and content by: Chairman of Co ttee) ead of De rtment (Me r) ( r) December 1981 1. 11 Price Analysis in Electronic Marketing of Texas... Feeder Cattle (December 1981) Kathleen Mahoney, B. S. , Western Illinois University The feeder cattle marketing segment is characterized by many small, independent producers. Over time the industry has moved away from large central markets. It can...

Mahoney, Kathleen Ann

1981-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk [National Center for Photovoltaics, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO] [National Center for Photovoltaics, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Analysis of Federal Subsidies: Implied Price of Carbon  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

For informed climate change policy, it is important for decision makers to be able to assess how the costs and benefits of federal energy subsidies are distributed and to be able to have some measure to compare them. One way to do this is to evaluate the implied price of carbon (IPC) for a federal subsidy, or set of subsidies; where the IPC is the cost of the subsidy to the U.S. Treasury divided by the emissions reductions it generated. Subsidies with lower IPC are more cost effective at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while subsidies with a negative IPC act to increase emissions. While simple in concept, the IPC is difficult to calculate in practice. Calculation of the IPC requires knowledge of (i) the amount of energy associated with the subsidy, (ii) the amount and type of energy that would have been produced in the absence of the subsidy, and (iii) the greenhouse gas emissions associated with both the subsidized energy and the potential replacement energy. These pieces of information are not consistently available for federal subsidies, and there is considerable uncertainty in cases where the information is available. Thus, exact values for the IPC based upon fully consistent standards cannot be calculated with available data. However, it is possible to estimate a range of potential values sufficient for initial comparisons. This study has employed a range of methods to generate “first order” estimates for the IPC of a range of federal subsidies using static methods that do not account for the dynamics of supply and demand. The study demonstrates that, while the IPC value depends upon how the inquiry is framed and the IPC cannot be calculated in a “one size fits all” manner, IPC calculations can provide a valuable perspective for climate policy analysis. IPC values are most useful when calculated within the perspective of a case study, with the method and parameters of the calculation determined by the case. The IPC of different policy measures can then be quantitatively evaluated within the case. Results can be qualitatively compared across cases, so long as such comparisons are considered to be preliminary and treated with the appropriate level of caution.

D. Craig Cooper; Thomas Foulke

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

The Updated MSW Analysis and the Standard Solar Model Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We update the analysis of the MSW and general astrophysical solutions to the combined solar neutrino observations by including the GALLEX II result. We also show that our parametrized flux uncertainties are equivalent to the Monte-Carlo results of Bahcall and Ulrich.

Naoya Hata; Paul Langacker

1993-08-10T23:59:59.000Z

60

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

A statistical analysis of the natural gas futures market : the interplay of sentiment, volatility and prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper attempts to understand the price dynamics of the North American natural gas market through a statistical survey that includes an analysis of the variables influencing the price and volatility of this energy ...

Fazzio, Thomas J. (Thomas Joseph)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

INTEGRATION OF SYSTEM COMPONENTS AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS - HANFORD EXAMPLES  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

{sm_bullet} Deterministic 'One Off' analyses as basis for evaluating sensitivity and uncertainty relative to reference case {sm_bullet} Spatial coverage identical to reference case {sm_bullet} Two types of analysis assumptions - Minimax parameter values around reference case conditions - 'What If' cases that change reference case condition and associated parameter values {sm_bullet} No conclusions about likelihood of estimated result other than' qualitative expectation that actual outcome should tend toward reference case estimate

WOOD MI

2009-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

64

Abstract--The capability to deal effectively with the uncer-tainty associated with locational marginal prices (LMPs) in con-  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, standard market design, locational marginal prices, fixed/firm/financial transmission rights, transmission.S. electricity sector. The proposal uses locational marginal prices (LMPs) to identify congestion situations marginal prices (LMPs) in con- gestion management schemes requires the development of ap- propriate

65

OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING COUNTRIES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu hal-00822070,version1-14May2013 #12;1 Oil price impact Khaled Guesmi3 Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price

Boyer, Edmond

66

Efficiency with Linear Prices? A Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of the Combinatorial Clock  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Efficiency with Linear Prices? A Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of the Combinatorial Clock with complementarities among goods as they can be found in procurement, energy markets, transportation, and the sale simplicity and for its highly usable price discovery, derived by the use of linear prices. Unfor- tunately

Cengarle, MarĂ­a Victoria

67

The level crossing analysis of German stock market index (DAX) and daily oil price time series  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The level crossing analysis of DAX and oil price time series are given. We determine the average frequency of positive-slope crossings, $\

Shayeganfar, F; Peinke, J; Tabar, M Reza Rahimi

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Electricity prices in a competitive environment: Marginal cost pricing of generation services and financial status of electric utilities. A preliminary analysis through 2015  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The emergence of competitive markets for electricity generation services is changing the way that electricity is and will be priced in the United States. This report presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated {open_quotes}cost-of-service{close_quotes} pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers? This study is not intended to be a cost-benefit analysis of wholesale or retail competition, nor does this report include an analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of competitive electricity prices.

NONE

1997-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

xi Chapter 1 The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on theLIST OF FIGURES Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Oil priceOil price uncertainty with and without realized

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

70

Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...

Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.

71

Computational Methods for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in Criticality Safety  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Interest in the sensitivity methods that were developed and widely used in the 1970s (the FORSS methodology at ORNL among others) has increased recently as a result of potential use in the area of criticality safety data validation procedures to define computational bias, uncertainties and area(s) of applicability. Functional forms of the resulting sensitivity coefficients can be used as formal parameters in the determination of applicability of benchmark experiments to their corresponding industrial application areas. In order for these techniques to be generally useful to the criticality safety practitioner, the procedures governing their use had to be updated and simplified. This paper will describe the resulting sensitivity analysis tools that have been generated for potential use by the criticality safety community.

Broadhead, B.L.; Childs, R.L.; Rearden, B.T.

1999-09-20T23:59:59.000Z

72

An Analysis of Price Volatility in Different Spot Markets for Electricity in the U.S.A.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

An Analysis of Price Volatility in Different Spot Markets for Electricity in the U.S.A. by Tim important feature. Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring insight into the behavior of spot prices for electricity, and in particular, to model the type

73

Cassini Spacecraft Uncertainty Analysis Data and Methodology Review and Update/Volume 1: Updated Parameter Uncertainty Models for the Consequence Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty distributions for specific parameters of the Cassini General Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) Final Safety Analysis Report consequence risk analysis were revised and updated. The revisions and updates were done for all consequence parameters for which relevant information exists from the joint project on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of European Communities.

WHEELER, TIMOTHY A.; WYSS, GREGORY D.; HARPER, FREDERICK T.

2000-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Price regulation for waste hauling franchises in California: an examination of how regulators regulate pricing and the effects of competition on regulated markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Thomadakis, Stavros. “Price Regulation Under Uncertainty in698. Bös, Dieter. Pricing and Price Regulation. Elsevier.Optimal Structure of Public Prices. ” The American Economic

Seltzer, Steven A.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software.

Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

1995-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

77

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Asymptotic analysis of utility-based prices and hedging strategies for utilities defined on the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Asymptotic analysis of utility-based prices and hedging strategies for utilities defined 6th 2009 #12;Outline Optimal investment and utility-based pricing hedging Asymptotic expansions horizon T 3. preferences over terminal wealth described by a utility function U #12;Trading strategies

Sîrbu, Mihai

79

Carbon Permit Prices in the European Emissions Trading System: A Stochastic Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Carbon Permit Prices in the European Emissions Trading System: A Stochastic Analysis By Wee Chiang, Technology and Policy Program 1 #12;Carbon Permit Prices in the European Emissions Trading System Abstract The Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is a cornerstone for European efforts to reduce greenhouse gas

80

2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Analysis on various pricing scenarios in a deregulated electricity market  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The electricity pricing structure in Texas has changed after deregulation (January 2002). The Energy Systems Laboratory has served as a technical consultant on electricity purchases to several universities in the Texas A&M University System since...

Afanador Delgado, Catalina

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

82

Tariff-based analysis of commercial building electricity prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

is higher than the average cost per-kWh, the question of howcost recovery adders are neglected unless they are speci?ed as a price per kWh

Coughlin, Katie M.; Bolduc, Chris A.; Rosenquist, Greg J.; Van Buskirk, Robert D.; McMahon, James E.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Application of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis to a Kinetic Model for Enzymatic Biodiesel Production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Application of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis to a Kinetic Model for Enzymatic Biodiesel benefits of using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the kinetics of enzymatic biodiesel production, Monte-Carlo Simulations, Enzymatic Biodiesel 1. INTRODUCTION In order to determine the optimal

Mosegaard, Klaus

84

An intraseasonal price analysis for Texas fresh grapefruit  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

determining those factors which had the greatest influence on weekly and monthly Texas fresh F. O. B. shipping point grapefruit price. This equation was then used in developing a conditional allocative system for intraseasonal shipments which would maximize... shipments seemed to have more effect in determining Texas price than did shipments from any other producing region even though Texas produces only 16 percent of the grapefruit produced in the U. S. Similar equations run for Florida fresh grapefruit...

Smith, E. G

1975-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) in the Residential Section: An Analysis of Installed Rooftop Prices (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This powerpoint presentation to be presented at the World Renewable Energy Forum on May 17, 2012, in Denver, CO, discusses building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) in the residential section and includes an analysis of installed rooftop prices.

James, T.; Goodrich, A.; Woodhouse, M.; Margolis, R.; Ong, S.

2012-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

87

Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...

Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. This development has been supported by a sequence of performance assessments (PAs) carried out by Sandla National Laboratories (SNL) to assess what is known about the WIPP and to provide .tidance for future DOE research and development activities. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures based on Latin hypercube sampling and regression techniques play an important role in these PAs by providing an assessment of the uncertainty in important analysis outcomes and identi~ing the sources of thk uncertainty. Performance assessments for the WIPP are conceptually and computational] y interesting due to regulatory requirements to assess and display the effects of both stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, where stochastic uncertainty arises from the possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period associated with the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arises from an inability to unambi-aously characterize the many models and associated parameters required in a PA for the WIPP. The interplay between uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, stochastic uncertainty and subjective uncertainty are discussed and illustrated in the context of a recent PA carried out by SNL to support an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste.

Helton, J.C.

1998-12-17T23:59:59.000Z

89

Uncertainty Analysis of RELAP5-3D  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

As world-wide energy consumption continues to increase, so does the demand for the use of alternative energy sources, such as Nuclear Energy. Nuclear Power Plants currently supply over 370 gigawatts of electricity, and more than 60 new nuclear reactors have been commissioned by 15 different countries. The primary concern for Nuclear Power Plant operation and lisencing has been safety. The safety of the operation of Nuclear Power Plants is no simple matter- it involves the training of operators, design of the reactor, as well as equipment and design upgrades throughout the lifetime of the reactor, etc. To safely design, operate, and understand nuclear power plants, industry and government alike have relied upon the use of best-estimate simulation codes, which allow for an accurate model of any given plant to be created with well-defined margins of safety. The most widely used of these best-estimate simulation codes in the Nuclear Power industry is RELAP5-3D. Our project focused on improving the modeling capabilities of RELAP5-3D by developing uncertainty estimates for its calculations. This work involved analyzing high, medium, and low ranked phenomena from an INL PIRT on a small break Loss-Of-Coolant Accident as wall as an analysis of a large break Loss-Of- Coolant Accident. Statistical analyses were performed using correlation coefficients. To perform the studies, computer programs were written that modify a template RELAP5 input deck to produce one deck for each combination of key input parameters. Python scripting enabled the running of the generated input files with RELAP5-3D on INL’s massively parallel cluster system. Data from the studies was collected and analyzed with SAS. A summary of the results of our studies are presented.

Alexandra E Gertman; Dr. George L Mesina

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

90

A Time Series Analysis of Food Price and Its Input Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

....................................... 27 4.5 Residual Correlation Matrix of the VECM ................................................ 28 4.6 Decomposition of Forecast Error Variance for Each of Eight Series ........ 40 1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Global food prices have....94 0.50 2.96 4.90 .13 Gasoline 0.79 0.34 0.12 1.41 .43 Corn 1.06 0.43 0.40 1.99 .41 Food CPI 5.28 0.10 5.12 5.45 .02 Ethanol 0.59 0.29 -0.06 1.29 .49 Food PPI 5.03 0.13 4.84 5.28 .03 Fuel PPI 4.98 0.29 4.41 5.59 .06 Dollar Index 4.70 0.09 4.55 4...

Routh, Kari 1988-

2012-11-27T23:59:59.000Z

91

Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.

Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric J. PhD. (.; .); Storlie, Curt B. (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO)

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Convergence of the Uncertainty Results  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a ‘high’ source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of “zero” results).

Bixler, Nathan E.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Mattie, Patrick D.; Ghosh, S. Tina

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

An Analysis of Price Determination and Markups in the Air-Conditioning and Heating Equipment Industry  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this report we calculate the change in final consumer prices due to minimum efficiency standards, focusing on a standard economic model of the air-conditioning and heating equipment (ACHE) wholesale industry. The model examines the relationship between the marginal cost to distribute and sell equipment and the final consumer price in this industry. The model predicts that the impact of a standard on the final consumer price is conditioned by its impact on marginal distribution costs. For example, if a standard raises the marginal cost to distribute and sell equipment a small amount, the model predicts that the standard will raise the final consumer price a small amount as well. Statistical analysis suggest that standards do not increase the amount of labor needed to distribute equipment the same employees needed to sell lower efficiency equipment can sell high efficiency equipment. Labor is a large component of the total marginal cost to distribute and sell air-conditioning and heating equipment. We infer from this that standards have a relatively small impact on ACHE marginal distribution and sale costs. Thus, our model predicts that a standard will have a relatively small impact on final ACHE consumer prices. Our statistical analysis of U.S. Census Bureau wholesale revenue tends to confirm this model prediction. Generalizing, we find that the ratio of manufacturer price to final consumer price prior to a standard tends to exceed the ratio of the change in manufacturer price to the change in final consumer price resulting from a standard. The appendix expands our analysis through a typical distribution chain for commercial and residential air-conditioning and heating equipment.

Dale, Larry; Millstein, Dev; Coughlin, Katie; Van Buskirk, Robert; Rosenquist, Gregory; Lekov, Alex; Bhuyan, Sanjib

2004-01-30T23:59:59.000Z

94

Modified Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for Uncertainty Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a methodology of characterizing important phenomena, which is also part of a broader research by the authors called 'Modified PIRT'. The methodology provides robust process of phenomena identification and ranking process for more precise quantification of uncertainty. It is a two-step process of identifying and ranking methodology based on thermal-hydraulics (TH) importance as well as uncertainty importance. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) has been used for as a formal approach for TH identification and ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the TH model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. This part uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions. The proposed methodology was demonstrated by developing a PIRT for large break loss of coolant accident LBLOCA for the LOFT integral facility with highest core power (test LB-1). (authors)

Gol-Mohamad, Mohammad P.; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

Uncertainties analysis of fission fraction for reactor antineutrino experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Reactor antineutrino experiment are used to study neutrino oscillation, search for signatures of nonstandard neutrino interaction, and monitor reactor operation for safeguard application. Reactor simulation is an important source of uncertainties for a reactor neutrino experiment. Commercial code is used for reactor simulation to evaluate fission fraction in Daya Bay neutrino experiment, but the source code doesn't open to our researcher results from commercial secret. In this study, The open source code DRAGON was improved to calculate the fission rates of the four most important isotopes in fissions, $^{235}$U,$^{238}$U,$^{239}$Pu and $^{241}$Pu, and then was validated for PWRs using the Takahama-3 benchmark. The fission fraction results are consistent with those of MIT's results. Then, fission fraction of Daya Bay reactor core was calculated by using improved DRAGON code, and the fission fraction calculated by DRAGON agreed well with these calculated by SCIENCE. The average deviation less than 5\\% for all the four isotopes. The correlation coefficient matrix between $^{235}$U,$^{238}$U,$^{239}$Pu and $^{241}$Pu were also studied using DRAGON, and then the uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction was calculated by using the correlation coefficient matrix. The uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction simulation is 0.6\\% per core for Daya Bay antineutrino experiment. The uncertainties source of fission fraction calculation need further to be studied in the future.

X. B. Ma; F. Lu; L. Z. Wang; Y. X. Chen; W. L. Zhong; F. P. An

2015-03-17T23:59:59.000Z

96

Price Differences in a Durable Products Secondary Market: A Hedonic Price Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

IrJRoFtino&GIryNiso88mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmBB LNNN PRICE DFN NSEDAUBPENAS A Disertaonby eRoebtrOL oNiieyoJrtH FyoUrM oO soSt Ib sFLaoyFbeu eoOry eoiso FU utomiF sFurLo SS DFyoisoJrtH Fomid torseomtuD oeuyDtuJusrFuisousoFU omtuJrtaoJrtH Fo n h...DrmuFrLoitoF DUsuDrLo .m tFuy odU soDiJmrt eoFios doDrtoe rL tyh kUuL oJrsaorFFtuObF yoiSoby eoebtrOL oJrtH FyYousDLbeusNoFU oby eoDrtoJrtH FYo yFuLLo .uyFoFieraYoFU ousF ts Foy JyoFioUrM oO NbsoFioDUrsN oFU oJrtH FoLrseyDrm hooAuF yo ybDUoryodddh Brah...

Fumasi, Roland J

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

97

SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An LED lamp or luminaire can generally be found that matches or exceeds the efficacy of benchmark technologies in a given product category, and LED products continue to expand into ever-higher lumen output niches. However, the price premium for LED continues to pose a barrier to adoption in many applications, in spite of expected savings from reduced energy use and maintenance. Other factors—such as dimmability and quality of light—can also present challenges. The appropriate type, timing, and magnitude of energy efficiency activities will vary from organization to organization based on local variables and the method of evaluation. A number of factors merit consideration when prioritizing activities for development. Category-specific projections for pricing and efficacy are provided herein to assist in efficiency program planning efforts.

Tuenge, Jason R.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

Coupled differential and integral data analysis for improved uncertainty quantification of the ?ł,??Cu cross section evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A new methodology has been developed that couples differential cross section data evaluation with integral benchmark analysis for improved uncertainty quantification. The new methodology was applied to the two new copper ...

Sobes, Vladimir

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

Uncertainty analysis of densities and isotopics: Handling correlations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper discusses two cases of correlated parameters in uncertainty analyses: (1) the case of measured mass, density, and volume or spatial dimension correlations; and (2) the case of measured material isotopics, where increasing one atom fraction must cause the others to decrease. In the first case, an equation is derived that has a term due to uncertain density, a term due to uncertain dimensions, and a term due to the correlation between density and dimensions. In a numerical test problem, this equation gives the same result as the standard equation that treats mass and dimensions independently. In the case of isotopics, an equation is derived relating the uncertainty due to uncertain isotopic fractions to the sensitivities to isotopic densities, which are easier to calculate. The equation is verified in a test problem. (authors)

Favorite, J. A.; Armstrong, J. C. [X-Computational Physics Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Burr, T. [Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States)

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Performance Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Japan's HLW Program Feasibility Study (H12)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Most HLW programs in the world recognize that any estimate of long-term radiological performance must be couched in terms of the uncertainties derived from natural variation, changes through time and lack of knowledge about the essential processes. The Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute followed a relatively standard procedure to address two major categories of uncertainty. First, a FEatures, Events and Processes (FEPs) listing, screening and grouping activity was pursued in order to define the range of uncertainty in system processes as well as possible variations in engineering design. A reference and many alternative cases representing various groups of FEPs were defined and individual numerical simulations performed for each to quantify the range of conceptual uncertainty. Second, parameter distributions were developed for the reference case to represent the uncertainty in the strength of these processes, the sequencing of activities and geometric variations. Both point estimates using high and low values for individual parameters as well as a probabilistic analysis were performed to estimate parameter uncertainty. A brief description of the conceptual model uncertainty analysis is presented. This paper focuses on presenting the details of the probabilistic parameter uncertainty assessment.

BABA,T.; ISHIGURO,K.; ISHIHARA,Y.; SAWADA,A.; UMEKI,H.; WAKASUGI,K.; WEBB,ERIK K.

1999-08-30T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

Seitz, R

2008-06-25T23:59:59.000Z

102

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction ................................................................................................................... 17 INTRODUCTION Since the millennium, the trend for fuel prices has been one of uncertainty prices, which have traditionally been relatively stable, increased by about 50 percent in 2008. Fuel

103

A QUALITATIVE APPROACH TO UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR THE PWR ROD EJECTION ACCIDENT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In order to understand best-estimate calculations of the peak local fuel enthalpy during a rod ejection accident, an assessment of the uncertainty has been completed. The analysis took into account point kinetics parameters which would be available from a three-dimensional core model and engineering judgment as to the uncertainty in those parameters. Sensitivity studies to those parameters were carried out using the best-estimate code PARCS. The results showed that the uncertainty (corresponding to one standard deviation) in local fuel enthalpy would be determined primarily by the uncertainty in ejected rod worth and delayed neutron fraction. For an uncertainty in the former of 8% and the latter of 5%, the uncertainty in fuel enthalpy varied from 51% to 69% for control rod worth varying from $1.2 to $1.0. Also considered in the uncertainty were the errors introduced by uncertainties in the Doppler reactivity coefficient, the fuel pellet specific heat, and assembly and fuel pin peaking factors.

DIAMOND,D.J.; ARONSON,A.; YANG,C.

2000-06-19T23:59:59.000Z

104

Determining Price Reasonableness in Federal ESPCs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document reports the findings and implementation recommendations of the Price Reasonableness Working Group to the Federal ESPC Steering Committee. The working group was formed to address concerns of agencies and oversight organizations related to pricing and fair and reasonable price determination in federal energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs). This report comprises the working group's recommendations and is the proposed draft of a training curriculum on fair and reasonable price determination for users of federal ESPCs. The report includes: (1) A review of federal regulations applicable to determining price reasonableness of federal ESPCs (section 2), (2) Brief descriptions of the techniques described in Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR) 15.404-1 and their applicability to ESPCs (section 3), and (3) Recommended strategies and procedures for cost-effectively completing price reasonableness determinations (sections 4). Agencies have struggled with fair and reasonable price determinations in their ESPCs primarily because this alternative financing vehicle is relatively new and relatively rare in the federal sector. The methods of determining price reasonableness most familiar to federal contracting officers (price competition based on the government's design and specifications, in particular) are generally not applicable to ESPCs. The regulatory requirements for determining price reasonableness in federal ESPCs have also been misunderstood, as federal procurement professionals who are inexperienced with ESPCs are further confused by multiple directives, including Executive Order 13123, which stresses life-cycle cost-effectiveness. Uncertainty about applicable regulations and inconsistent practice and documentation among agencies have fueled claims that price reasonableness determinations have not been sufficiently rigorous in federal ESPCs or that the prices paid in ESPCs are generally higher than the prices paid for similar goods and services obtained through conventional procurements. While claims of excessive prices are largely unsubstantiated and based on anecdotal evidence, the perception that there is a problem is shared by many in the ESPC community and has been noted by auditors and oversight organizations. The Price Reasonableness Working Group determined that a more formal emphasis on FAR 15.404-1 in the ESPC process could remove much of the doubt about price reasonableness determinations. The working group's recommended consensus policy on price reasonableness stresses the price analysis techniques described in the FAR that are applicable to ESPCs and includes guidance for agencies use of these techniques in determining price reasonableness for their ESPC delivery orders. The recommended policy and guidance, if communicated to federal ESPC stakeholders, can ensure that agencies will comply with the FAR in awarding ESPCs, obtain fair and reasonable prices and best value for the government, and follow procedures that provide auditable documentation of due diligence in price reasonableness determinations.

Shonder, J.A.

2005-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

105

Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This effort was a collaboration with Youssef Marzouk of MIT, Omar Knio of Duke University (at the time at Johns Hopkins University) and Habib Najm of Sandia National Laboratories. The objective of this effort was to develop the mathematical and algorithmic capacity to analyze complex networks under uncertainty. Of interest were chemical reaction networks and smart grid networks. The statements of work for USC focused on the development of stochastic reduced models for uncertain networks. The USC team was led by Professor Roger Ghanem and consisted of one graduate student and a postdoc. The contributions completed by the USC team consisted of 1) methodology and algorithms to address the eigenvalue problem, a problem of significance in the stability of networks under stochastic perturbations, 2) methodology and algorithms to characterize probability measures on graph structures with random flows. This is an important problem in characterizing random demand (encountered in smart grid) and random degradation (encountered in infrastructure systems), as well as modeling errors in Markov Chains (with ubiquitous relevance !). 3) methodology and algorithms for treating inequalities in uncertain systems. This is an important problem in the context of models for material failure and network flows under uncertainty where conditions of failure or flow are described in the form of inequalities between the state variables.

Ghanem, Roger G [University of Southern California

2014-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

106

Pricing with uncertain customer valuations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Building Room 329, 200 W Packer Ave, Bethlehem, PA 18015, ... of uncertainty motivates the introduction of non-linearities in the demand as a function of price ... of price-response functions, parametrized by a risk sensitivity coefficient, which

2007-10-16T23:59:59.000Z

107

Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework.

Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Murray, Christopher J.; Thorne, Paul D.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Rogers, Phillip M.

2001-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

108

1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5: Uncertainty/Error Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5: Uncertainty/Error Analysis · Introduction · Bias and Precision Summation/Propagation (Expanded Combined Uncertainty) · Problem 5-30 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Ch.5) at corresponding Probability (%P) Remember: u = d%P = t,%PS (@ %P); z=t=d/S #12;2 ©1997-2001 by M. Kostic Bias

Kostic, Milivoje M.

109

Uncertainty analysis for probabilistic pipe fracture evaluations in LBB applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

During the NRC`s Short Cracks in Piping and Piping Welds Program at Battelle, a probabilistic methodology was developed to conduct fracture evaluations of circumferentially cracked pipes for application to leak-rate detection. Later, in the IPIRG-2 program, several parameters that may affect leak-before-break and other pipe flaw evaluations were identified. This paper presents new results from several uncertainty analyses to evaluate the effects of normal operating stresses, normal plus safe-shutdown earthquake stresses, off-centered cracks, restraint of pressure-induced bending, and dynamic and cyclic loading rates on the conditional failure probability of pipes. systems in BWR and PWR. For each parameter, the sensitivity to conditional probability of failure and hence, its importance on probabilistic leak-before-break evaluations were determined.

Rahman, S.; Ghadiali, N.; Wilkowski, G.

1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

analysis uncertainty: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Theses and Dissertations Summary: ??Hypersonic vehicles face a challenging flight environment. The aerothermoelastic analysis of its components requires numerous simplifying...

111

Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A multi-rate expression for uranyl [U(VI)] surface complexation reactions has been proposed to describe diffusion-limited U(VI) sorption/desorption in heterogeneous subsurface sediments. An important assumption in the rate expression is that its rate constants follow a certain type probability distribution. In this paper, a Bayes-based, Differential Evolution Markov Chain method was used to assess the distribution assumption and to analyze parameter and model structure uncertainties. U(VI) desorption from a contaminated sediment at the US Hanford 300 Area, Washington was used as an example for detail analysis. The results indicated that: 1) the rate constants in the multi-rate expression contain uneven uncertainties with slower rate constants having relative larger uncertainties; 2) the lognormal distribution is an effective assumption for the rate constants in the multi-rate model to simualte U(VI) desorption; 3) however, long-term prediction and its uncertainty may be significantly biased by the lognormal assumption for the smaller rate constants; and 4) both parameter and model structure uncertainties can affect the extrapolation of the multi-rate model with a larger uncertainty from the model structure. The results provide important insights into the factors contributing to the uncertainties of the multi-rate expression commonly used to describe the diffusion or mixing-limited sorption/desorption of both organic and inorganic contaminants in subsurface sediments.

Zhang, Xiaoying; Liu, Chongxuan; Hu, Bill X.; Zhang, Guannan

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Uncertainties in Cancer Risk Coefficients for Environmental Exposure to Radionuclides. An Uncertainty Analysis for Risk Coefficients Reported in Federal Guidance Report No. 13  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Federal Guidance Report No. 13 (FGR 13) provides risk coefficients for estimation of the risk of cancer due to low-level exposure to each of more than 800 radionuclides. Uncertainties in risk coefficients were quantified in FGR 13 for 33 cases (exposure to each of 11 radionuclides by each of three exposure pathways) on the basis of sensitivity analyses in which various combinations of plausible biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models were used to generate alternative risk coefficients. The present report updates the uncertainty analysis in FGR 13 for the cases of inhalation and ingestion of radionuclides and expands the analysis to all radionuclides addressed in that report. The analysis indicates that most risk coefficients for inhalation or ingestion of radionuclides are determined within a factor of 5 or less by current information. That is, application of alternate plausible biokinetic and dosimetric models and radiation risk models (based on the linear, no-threshold hypothesis with an adjustment for the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor) is unlikely to change these coefficients by more than a factor of 5. In this analysis the assessed uncertainty in the radiation risk model was found to be the main determinant of the uncertainty category for most risk coefficients, but conclusions concerning the relative contributions of risk and dose models to the total uncertainty in a risk coefficient may depend strongly on the method of assessing uncertainties in the risk model.

Pawel, David [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Leggett, Richard Wayne [ORNL; Eckerman, Keith F [ORNL; Nelson, Christopher [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

113

SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Knowledge Advancement.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the model response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Ross, Kyle; Cardoni, Jeffrey N; Kalinich, Donald A.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Ghosh, S. Tina

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

uncertainty on investment: Evidence from TEXAS oil drilling.investment decisions to changes in uncertainty using Texas oiloil price uncertainty deters var- ious types of real economic activities, such as output production, investment,

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Uncertainty in soil-structure interaction analysis arising from differences in analytical techniques  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study addresses uncertainties arising from variations in different modeling approaches to soil-structure interaction of massive structures at a nuclear power plant. To perform a comprehensive systems analysis, it is necessary to quantify, for each phase of the traditional analysis procedure, both the realistic seismic response and the uncertainties associated with them. In this study two linear soil-structure interaction techniques were used to analyze the Zion, Illinois nuclear power plant: a direct method using the FLUSH computer program and a substructure approach using the CLASSI family of computer programs. In-structure response from two earthquakes, one real and one synthetic, was compared. Structure configurations from relatively simple to complicated multi-structure cases were analyzed. The resulting variations help quantify uncertainty in structure response due to analysis procedures.

Maslenikov, O. R.; Chen, J. C.; Johnson, J. J.

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION UNDER CATASTROPHIC RISK AND PRICE UNCERTAINTY IN KENTUCKY.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Internalizing carbon value for forest landowners has the potential to increase carbon supply in forest and mitigate CO2 in the atmosphere. In this study, we… (more)

Hu, Lijiao

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: A Strategy...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Estimation Since 2002 To view all the P&RA CoP 2014 Technical Exchange Meeting videos click here. Video Presentation - Part 1 Video Presentation - Part 2 Risk Analysis and...

119

Incorporating uncertainty in the Life Cycle Cost Analysis of pavements  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is an important tool to evaluate the economic performance of alternative investments for a given project. It considers the total cost to construct, maintain, and operate a pavement over its ...

Swei, Omar Abdullah

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Uncertainty Analysis for a Virtual Flow Meter Using an Air-Handling Unit Chilled Water Valve  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A virtual water flow meter is developed that uses the chilled water control valve on an air-handling unit as a measurement device. The flow rate of water through the valve is calculated using the differential pressure across the valve and its associated coil, the valve command, and an empirically determined valve characteristic curve. Thus, the probability of error in the measurements is significantly greater than for conventionally manufactured flow meters. In this paper, mathematical models are developed and used to conduct uncertainty analysis for the virtual flow meter, and the results from the virtual meter are compared to measurements made with an ultrasonic flow meter. Theoretical uncertainty analysis shows that the total uncertainty in flow rates from the virtual flow meter is 1.46% with 95% confidence; comparison of virtual flow meter results with measurements from an ultrasonic flow meter yielded anuncertainty of 1.46% with 99% confidence. The comparable results from the theoretical uncertainty analysis and empirical comparison with the ultrasonic flow meter corroborate each other, and tend to validate the approach to computationally estimating uncertainty for virtual sensors introduced in this study.

Song, Li; Wang, Gang; Brambley, Michael R.

2013-04-28T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Prices and Price Setting.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??abstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects… (more)

R.P. Faber (Riemer)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

Shifting demand or just moving price?: A multi-level analysis of student price demand for college education and state policy preferences  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

education: Enrollment, prices, student aid and outcomes,D. E. (1997). Student price response in higher education: AnP. T. (1987). Student price response in higher education:

Okahana, Hironao

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Implementation of a Bayesian Engine for Uncertainty Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In probabilistic risk assessment, it is important to have an environment where analysts have access to a shared and secured high performance computing and a statistical analysis tool package. As part of the advanced small modular reactor probabilistic risk analysis framework implementation, we have identified the need for advanced Bayesian computations. However, in order to make this technology available to non-specialists, there is also a need of a simplified tool that allows users to author models and evaluate them within this framework. As a proof-of-concept, we have implemented an advanced open source Bayesian inference tool, OpenBUGS, within the browser-based cloud risk analysis framework that is under development at the Idaho National Laboratory. This development, the “OpenBUGS Scripter” has been implemented as a client side, visual web-based and integrated development environment for creating OpenBUGS language scripts. It depends on the shared server environment to execute the generated scripts and to transmit results back to the user. The visual models are in the form of linked diagrams, from which we automatically create the applicable OpenBUGS script that matches the diagram. These diagrams can be saved locally or stored on the server environment to be shared with other users.

Leng Vang; Curtis Smith; Steven Prescott

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Performance evaluation of passive cooling in office buildings based on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Natural night ventilation is an interesting passive cooling method in moderate climates. Driven by wind and stack generated pressures, it cools down the exposed building structure at night, in which the heat of the previous day is accumulated. The performance of natural night ventilation highly depends on the external weather conditions and especially on the outdoor temperature. An increase of this outdoor temperature is noticed over the last century and the IPCC predicts an additional rise to the end of this century. A methodology is needed to evaluate the reliable operation of the indoor climate of buildings in case of warmer and uncertain summer conditions. The uncertainty on the climate and on other design data can be very important in the decision process of a building project. The aim of this research is to develop a methodology to predict the performance of natural night ventilation using building energy simulation taking into account the uncertainties in the input. The performance evaluation of natural night ventilation is based on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The results of the uncertainty analysis showed that thermal comfort in a single office cooled with single-sided night ventilation had the largest uncertainty. The uncertainties on thermal comfort in case of passive stack and cross ventilation were substantially smaller. However, since wind, as the main driving force for cross ventilation, is highly variable, the cross ventilation strategy required larger louvre areas than the stack ventilation strategy to achieve a similar performance. The differences in uncertainty between the orientations were small. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the most dominant set of input parameters causing the uncertainty on thermal comfort. The internal heat gains, solar heat gain coefficient of the sunblinds, internal convective heat transfer coefficient, thermophysical properties related to thermal mass, set-point temperatures controlling the natural night ventilation, the discharge coefficient C{sub d} of the night ventilation opening and the wind pressure coefficients C{sub p} were identified to have the largest impact on the uncertainty of thermal comfort. The impact of the warming climate on the uncertainty of thermal comfort was determined. The uncertainty on thermal comfort appeared to increase significantly when a weather data set with recurrence time of 10 years (warm weather) was applied in the transient simulations in stead of a standard weather data set. Natural night ventilation, designed for normal weather conditions, was clearly not able to ensure a high probability of good thermal comfort in warm weather. To ensure a high probability of good thermal comfort and to reduce the performance uncertainty in a warming climate, natural night ventilation has to be combined with additional measures. Different measures were analysed, based on the results of the sensitivity analysis. All the measures were shown to significantly decrease the uncertainty of thermal comfort in warm weather. The study showed the importance to carry out simulations with a warm weather data set together with the analysis under typical conditions. This approach allows to gain a better understanding of the performance of a natural night ventilation design, and to optimize the design to a robust solution. (author)

Breesch, H. [Building Physics, Construction and Services, Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Ghent University, J. Plateaustraat 22, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium); Sustainable Building Research Group, Department of Construction, Catholic University College Ghent, Gebroeders Desmetstraat 1, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium); Janssens, A. [Building Physics, Construction and Services, Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Ghent University, J. Plateaustraat 22, B-9000 Ghent (Belgium)

2010-08-15T23:59:59.000Z

125

Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over This article extends the understanding of oil­stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade. Unlike returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector. In the out

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

126

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of fission gas behavior in engineering-scale fuel modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The role of uncertainties in fission gas behavior calculations as part of engineering-scale nuclear fuel modeling is investigated using the BISON fuel performance code and a recently implemented physics-based model for the coupled fission gas release and swelling. Through the integration of BISON with the DAKOTA software, a sensitivity analysis of the results to selected model parameters is carried out based on UO2 single-pellet simulations covering different power regimes. The parameters are varied within ranges representative of the relative uncertainties and consistent with the information from the open literature. The study leads to an initial quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in fission gas behavior modeling with the parameter characterization presently available. Also, the relative importance of the single parameters is evaluated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on simulations of a fuel rod irradiation experiment, pointing out a significant impact of the considered uncertainties on the calculated fission gas release and cladding diametral strain. The results of the study indicate that the commonly accepted deviation between calculated and measured fission gas release by a factor of 2 approximately corresponds to the inherent modeling uncertainty at high fission gas release. Nevertheless, higher deviations may be expected for values around 10% and lower. Implications are discussed in terms of directions of research for the improved modeling of fission gas behavior for engineering purposes.

G. Pastore; L.P. Swiler; J.D. Hales; S.R. Novascone; D.M. Perez; B.W. Spencer; L. Luzzi; P. Van Uffelen; R.L. Williamson

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

127

Bayes Linear Uncertainty Analysis for Oil Reservoirs Based on Multiscale Computer Experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bayes Linear Uncertainty Analysis for Oil Reservoirs Based on Multiscale Computer Experiments, 2008 1 Introduction Reservoir simulators are important and widely-used tools for oil reservoir for reservoirs, where the model inputs are physical parameters, such as the permeability and porosity of various

Oakley, Jeremy

128

Uncertainty analysis of the Measured Performance Rating (MPR) method. Final report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A report was commissioned by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority and the Electric Power Research Institute to evaluate the uncertainties in the energy monitoring method known as measured performance rating (MPR). The work is intended to help further development of the MPR system by quantitatively analyzing the uncertainties in estimates of the heat loss coefficients and heating system efficiencies. The analysis indicates that the MPR should detect as little as a 7 percent change in the heat loss coefficients and heating system efficiencies. The analysis indicate that the MPR should be able to detect as little as a 7 percent change in the heat loss coefficient at 95 percent confidence level. MPR appears sufficiently robust for characterizing common weatherization treatments; e.g., increasing attic insulation from R-7 to R-19 in a typical single-story, 1,100 sq. ft. house resulting in a 19 percent reduction in heat loss coefficient. Furnace efficiency uncertainties ranged up to three times those of the heat loss coefficients. Measurement uncertainties (at the 95 percent confidence level) were estimated to be from 1 to 5 percent for heat loss coefficients and 1.5 percent for a typical furnace efficiency. The analysis also shows a limitation in applying MPR to houses with heating ducts in slabs on grade and to those with very large thermal mass. Most of the uncertainties encountered in the study were due more to the methods of estimating the ``true`` heat loss coefficients, furnace efficiency, and furnace fuel consumption (by collecting fuel bills and simulating two actual houses) than to the MPR approach. These uncertainties in the true parameter values become evidence for arguments in favor of the need of empirical measures of heat loss coefficient and furnace efficiency, like the MPR method, rather than arguments against.

Not Available

1993-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Household Appliances  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report summarizes our study of the price elasticity of demand for home appliances, including refrigerators, clothes washers, and dishwashers. In the context of increasingly stringent appliance standards, we are interested in what kind of impact the increased manufacturing costs caused by higher efficiency requirements will have on appliance sales. We begin with a review of existing economics literature describing the impact of economic variables on the sale of durable goods.We then describe the market for home appliances and changes in this market over the past 20 years, performing regression analysis on the shipments of home appliances and relevant economic variables including changes to operating cost and household income. Based on our analysis, we conclude that the demand for home appliances is price inelastic.

Fujita, Kimberly; Dale, Larry; Fujita, K. Sydny

2008-01-25T23:59:59.000Z

130

The price of electricity from private power producers: Stage 2, Expansion of sample and preliminary statistical analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The market for long-term bulk power is becoming increasingly competitive and mature. Given that many privately developed power projects have been or are being developed in the US, it is possible to begin to evaluate the performance of the market by analyzing its revealed prices. Using a consistent method, this paper presents levelized contract prices for a sample of privately developed US generation properties. The sample includes 26 projects with a total capacity of 6,354 MW. Contracts are described in terms of their choice of technology, choice of fuel, treatment of fuel price risk, geographic location, dispatchability, expected dispatch niche, and size. The contract price analysis shows that gas technologies clearly stand out as the most attractive. At an 80% capacity factor, coal projects have an average 20-year levelized price of $0.092/kWh, whereas natural gas combined cycle and/or cogeneration projects have an average price of $0.069/kWh. Within each technology type subsample, however, there is considerable variation. Prices for natural gas combustion turbines and one wind project are also presented. A preliminary statistical analysis is conducted to understand the relationship between price and four categories of explanatory factors including product heterogeneity, geographic heterogeneity, economic and technological change, and other buyer attributes (including avoided costs). Because of residual price variation, we are unable to accept the hypothesis that electricity is a homogeneous product. Instead, the analysis indicates that buyer value still plays an important role in the determination of price for competitively-acquired electricity.

Comnes, G.A.; Belden, T.N.; Kahn, E.P.

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Microdata analysis of price setting behaviour and macrodata analysis of heterogeneous DSGE models .  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis investigates nominal frictions in price setting behaviour from both microe-conometric and macroeconometric perspectives. Chapter I and II use the unpublished retailer-level and producer-level… (more)

Zhou, Peng

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

AEP Ohio gridSMART Demonstration Project Real-Time Pricing Demonstration Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contributes initial findings from an analysis of significant aspects of the gridSMART® Real-Time Pricing (RTP) – Double Auction demonstration project. Over the course of four years, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) worked with American Electric Power (AEP), Ohio and Battelle Memorial Institute to design, build, and operate an innovative system to engage residential consumers and their end-use resources in a participatory approach to electric system operations, an incentive-based approach that has the promise of providing greater efficiency under normal operating conditions and greater flexibility to react under situations of system stress. The material contained in this report supplements the findings documented by AEP Ohio in the main body of the gridSMART report. It delves into three main areas: impacts on system operations, impacts on households, and observations about the sensitivity of load to price changes.

Widergren, Steven E.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Fuller, Jason C.; Chassin, David P.; Somani, Abhishek; Marinovici, Maria C.; Hammerstrom, Janelle L.

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

DRAFT DO NOT QUOTE Energy Prices and Energy Intensity in China: A Structural Decomposition Analysis and Econometrics Study  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has declined dramatically, by about 70%, in spite of increases in energy consumption. Is this just a coincidence? Or does a systematic relationship exist between energy prices and energy intensity? In this study, we examine whether and how China’s energy price changes affect its energy intensity trend during 1980-2002 at a macro level. We conduct the research by using two complementary economic models: the input-output-based structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and econometric regression models and by using a decomposition method of own-price elasticity of energy intensity. Findings include a negative own-price elasticity of energy intensity, a price-inducement effect on energyefficiency improvement, and a greater sensitivity (in terms of the reaction of energy intensity towards changes in energy prices) of the industry sector, compared to the overall economy. Analysts can use these results as a starting point for China's energy and carbon

Xiaoyu Shi; Karen R. Polenske; Xiaoyu Shi; Karen R. Polenske

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

Use of Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis to Support M&VDecisions in ESPCs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Measurement and Verification (M&V) is a critical elementof an Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) - without M&V, thereisno way to confirm that the projected savings in an ESPC are in factbeing realized. For any given energy conservation measure in an ESPC,there are usually several M&V choices, which will vary in terms ofmeasurement uncertainty, cost, and technical feasibility. Typically,M&V decisions are made almost solely based on engineering judgmentand experience, with little, if any, quantitative uncertainty analysis(QUA). This paper describes the results of a pilot project initiated bythe Department of Energy s Federal Energy Management Program to explorethe use of Monte-Carlo simulation to assess savings uncertainty andthereby augment the M&V decision-making process in ESPCs. The intentwas to use QUA selectively in combination with heuristic knowledge, inorder to obtain quantitative estimates of the savings uncertainty withoutthe burden of a comprehensive "bottoms-up" QUA. This approach was used toanalyze the savings uncertainty in an ESPC for a large federal agency.The QUA was seamlessly integrated into the ESPC development process andthe incremental effort was relatively small with user-friendly tools thatare commercially available. As the case study illustrates, in some casesthe QUA simply confirms intuitive or qualitative information, while inother cases, it provides insight that suggests revisiting the M&Vplan. The case study also showed that M&V decisions should beinformed by the portfolio risk diversification. By providing quantitativeuncertainty information, QUA can effectively augment the M&Vdecision-making process as well as the overall ESPC financialanalysis.

Mathew, Paul A.; Koehling, Erick; Kumar, Satish

2005-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

135

Genetic algorithm evolved agent-based equity trading using Technical Analysis and the Capital Asset Pricing Model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Genetic algorithm evolved agent-based equity trading using Technical Analysis and the Capital Asset data using technical analysis, the capital asset pricing model and a hybrid model of the two approaches. Results indicated that the technical analysis based approach performed better than the capital asset

Aickelin, Uwe

136

Uncertainty Analysis for a De-pressurised Loss of Forced Cooling Event of the PBMR Reactor  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents an uncertainty analysis for a De-pressurised Loss of Forced Cooling (DLOFC) event that was performed with the systems CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code Flownex for the PBMR reactor. An uncertainty analysis was performed to determine the variation in maximum fuel, core barrel and reactor pressure vessel (RPV) temperature due to variations in model input parameters. Some of the input parameters that were varied are: thermo-physical properties of helium and the various solid materials, decay heat, neutron and gamma heating, pebble bed pressure loss, pebble bed Nusselt number and pebble bed bypass flows. The Flownex model of the PBMR reactor is a 2-dimensional axisymmetrical model. It is simplified in terms of geometry and some other input values. However, it is believed that the model adequately indicates the effect of changes in certain input parameters on the fuel temperature and other components during a DLOFC event. Firstly, a sensitivity study was performed where input variables were varied individually according to predefined uncertainty ranges and the results were sorted according to the effect on maximum fuel temperature. In the sensitivity study, only seven variables had a significant effect on the maximum fuel temperature (greater that 5 deg. C). The most significant are power distribution profile, decay heat, reflector properties and effective pebble bed conductivity. Secondly, Monte Carlo analyses were performed in which twenty variables were varied simultaneously within predefined uncertainty ranges. For a one-tailed 95% confidence level, the conservatism that should be added to the best estimate calculation of the maximum fuel temperature for a DLOFC was determined as 53 deg. C. This value will probably increase after some model refinements in the future. Flownex was found to be a valuable tool for uncertainly analyses, facilitating both sensitivity studies and Monte Carlo analyses. (authors)

Jansen van Rensburg, Pieter A.; Sage, Martin G. [PBMR, 1279 Mike Crawford Avenue, Centurion 0046 (South Africa)

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

137

2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This chapter presents BPA's market price forecasts, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's rates. AURORA is used as the primary tool for (a) calculation of the demand rate, (b) shaping the PF rate, (c) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years 2008 and 2009, (d) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments, (e) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (f) providing a price input used for the risk analysis.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

2005-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

138

Single-Product Pricing via Robust Optimization  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

manufacturing to fashion retail. Applying probabilistic ... In Section 2, we develop the robust pricing model in the presence of additive uncertainty. We analyze.

2006-01-30T23:59:59.000Z

139

Model validation and uncertainty analysis -- An example using a nitrate percolation model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Model validation and uncertainty analysis are demonstrated using a model previously developed for estimating nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) concentrations in percolation water from land application of sewage sludge. The objectives are to demonstrate alternate validation techniques and to analyze uncertainty associated with model use following validation. Field data from three published sludge application studies and two separate methods are used for the validation. The first method, point validation, is accomplished by inserting mean values into the model to make point predictions. Model accuracy is then assessed by calculating coefficient of determination (r{sup 2}), relative error and standard error. Statistical accuracy is tested using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The second method, statistical validation, uses Monte Carlo simulation to obtain distributions of model predictions. The hypothesis that field data represent reasonable samples from the distribution of model predictions is tested by checking whether observed values are within a range bounded by the 5 and 95% quantities of the distribution. Both validation methods demonstrate that the land application model generally overestimates nitrate concentrations. Monte Carlo simulation is used to identify which model input parameters are the largest contributors to the uncertainty in model predictions.

Mummert, M.C. [R.E. Wright Environmental, Inc., Middletown, PA (United States)

1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

140

Uncertainty analysis for an updated dose assessment for a US nuclear test site: Bikini Atoll  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A detailed analysis of uncertainty and interindividual variability in estimated doses was conducted for a rehabilitation scenario for Bikini Island at Bikini Atoll, in which the top 40 cm of soil would be removed in the housing and village area, and the rest of the island is treated with potassium fertilizer, prior to an assumed resettlement date of 1999. Predicted doses were considered for the following fallout-related exposure pathways: ingested Cesium-137 and Strontium-90, external gamma exposure, and inhalation and ingestion of Americium-241 + Plutonium-239+240. Two dietary scenarios were considered: (1) imported foods are available (IA), and (2) imported foods are unavailable (only local foods are consumed) (IUA). Corresponding calculations of uncertainty in estimated population-average dose showed that after {approximately}5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to uncertainty in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its population-average value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). Corresponding calculations of interindividual variability in the expected value of dose with respect to uncertainty showed that after {approximately}5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to interindividual variability in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its expected value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). For reference, the expected values of population-average dose at age 70 were estimated to be 1.6 and 5.2 cSv under the IA and IUA dietary assumptions, respectively. Assuming that 200 Bikini resettlers would be exposed to local foods (under both IA and IUA assumptions), the maximum 1-y dose received by any Bikini resident is most likely to be approximately 2 and 8 mSv under the IA and IUA assumptions, respectively.

Bogen, K.T.; Conrado, C.L.; Robison, W.L.

1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
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We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
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141

Energy prices and energy intensity in China : a structural decomposition analysis and econometrics study  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has ...

Shi, Xiaoyu

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Luxury condos : an analysis of sales price and hotel amenities in Manhattan  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The purpose of this research project is to examine the market pricing behavior of condos with hotel amenities in the Manhattan condo market. To do this, data was compiled from multiple sources to track variations in price ...

Dolan, Amelia Jane

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Essays on Price Dynamics, Welfare Analysis, Household Food Insecurity in Mexico  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

prices, and determinants of household food insecurity are discussed and presented in three separate essays. In the first essay, the dynamic information flows among prices of important agricultural commodities in the United States (U.S.) and Mexico...

Magana Lemus, David

2013-09-20T23:59:59.000Z

144

Energy prices and energy intensity in China : a structural decomposition analysis and econometric study  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., physical energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product ...

Shi, Xiaoyu, M.C.P. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We study the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty on the entry of firms, total investment, and prices in a competitive industry with irreversible investment. We first use standard dynamic programming methods ...

Caballero, Ricardo J.

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

An analysis of cattle feedlot placement, feeding and marketing strategies under alternative price relationships  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FEEDERS RELATIVE TO OPTIMUM STRATEGIES UNDER PROJECTED SLAUGHTER PRICES 51 Forecasted Slaughter Steer and Heifer Prices Decision Model for Cattle Feeders Under Pro- jected Fed Slaughter Steer and Heifer Prices 51 56 ix Page ST RATE GIES FOR USE..., strong demand for beef growing out of a serious escalation of the Vietnam conflict and an abundance of low-priced feedgrains were important factors in explaining continued feedlot expansion. The cattle feeding industry functioned under gen- erally...

Clary, Gregory Michael

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

147

Weblog Analysis for Predicting Correlations in Stock Price Evolutions Milad Kharratzadeh1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

method which combines information from the weblog data and histor- ical stock prices. Through simulation strategies based on company sec- tors or historical stock prices. This suggests that the method- ology has evolution of stock prices and whether this is complementary to the information embedded in historical stock

Coates, Mark

148

Identifying the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship: An Empirical Mode Decomposition Analysis of U.S. Data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This work applies the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to data on real quarterly oil price (West Texas Intermediate - WTI) and U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This relatively new method is adaptive and capable of handling non-linear and non-stationary data. Correlation analysis of the decomposition results was performed and examined for insights into the oil-macroeconomy relationship. Several components of this relationship were identified. However, the principal one is that the medium-run cyclical component of the oil price exerts a negative and exogenous influence on the main cyclical component of the GDP. This can be interpreted as the supply-driven or supply-shock component of the oil price-GDP relationship. In addition, weak correlations suggesting a lagging demand-driven, an expectations-driven, and a long-run supply-driven component of the relationship were also identified. Comparisons of these findings with significant oil supply disruption and recession dates were supportive. The study identified a number of lessons applicable to recent oil market events, including the eventuality of persistent economic and price declines following a long oil price run-up. In addition, it was found that oil-market related exogenous events are associated with short- to medium-run price implications regardless of whether they lead to actual supply disruptions.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

149

An Analysis of the Effects of Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Residential Selling Prices in California.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An increasing number of homes with existing photovoltaic (PV) energy systems have sold in the U.S., yet relatively little research exists that estimates the marginal impacts of those PV systems on the sales price. A clearer understanding of these effects might influence the decisions of homeowners, home buyers and PV home builders. This research analyzes a large dataset of California homes that sold from 2000 through mid-2009 with PV installed. Across a large number of hedonic and repeat sales model specifications and robustness tests, the analysis finds strong evidence that homes with PV systems sold for a premium over comparable homes without. The effects range, on average, from approximately $3.9 to $6.4 per installed watt (DC), with most models coalescing near $5.5/watt, which corresponds to a premium of approximately $17,000 for a 3,100 watt system. The research also shows that, as PV systems age, the premium enjoyed at the time of home sale decreases. Additionally, existing homes with PV systems are found to have commanded a larger sales price premium than new homes with similarly sized PV systems. Reasons for this discrepancy are suggested, yet further research is warranted in this area as well as a number of other areas that are highlighted.

Cappers, Peter; Wiser, Ryan; Thayer, Mark; Hoen, Ben

2011-04-12T23:59:59.000Z

150

Development code for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of input on the MCNPX for neutronic calculation in PWR core  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This research was carried out on the development of code for uncertainty analysis is based on a statistical approach for assessing the uncertainty input parameters. In the butn-up calculation of fuel, uncertainty analysis performed for input parameters fuel density, coolant density and fuel temperature. This calculation is performed during irradiation using Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport. The Uncertainty method based on the probabilities density function. Development code is made in python script to do coupling with MCNPX for criticality and burn-up calculations. Simulation is done by modeling the geometry of PWR terrace, with MCNPX on the power 54 MW with fuel type UO2 pellets. The calculation is done by using the data library continuous energy cross-sections ENDF / B-VI. MCNPX requires nuclear data in ACE format. Development of interfaces for obtaining nuclear data in the form of ACE format of ENDF through special process NJOY calculation to temperature changes in a certain range.

Hartini, Entin, E-mail: entin@batan.go.id; Andiwijayakusuma, Dinan, E-mail: entin@batan.go.id [Center for Development of Nuclear Informatics - National Nuclear Energy Agency, PUSPIPTEK, Serpong, Tangerang, Banten (Indonesia)

2014-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

151

Economic History Revisited: New Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the southern and midwestern regions of the United States. However, the large run-up in oil prices is increasingEconomic History Revisited: New Uncertainties I n the last Sitar-Rutgers Regional Report, we are paying ever-increasing prices for fewer available sites. Warehouse sites in the southern portion

152

Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods – such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling – Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work is focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good performance both in terms of the accuracy of the resulting PC representation of quantities and the computational costs associated with constructing the sparse PCE. Basis adaptivity also seems to make the employment of PC techniques possible for problems with a higher number of input parameters (15–20), alleviating a well known limitation of the traditional approach. The prospect of larger scale applicability and the simplicity of implementation makes such adaptive PC algorithms particularly appealing for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex systems and legacy codes.

Perkó, Zoltán, E-mail: Z.Perko@tudelft.nl; Gilli, Luca, E-mail: Gilli@nrg.eu; Lathouwers, Danny, E-mail: D.Lathouwers@tudelft.nl; Kloosterman, Jan Leen, E-mail: J.L.Kloosterman@tudelft.nl

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

BWR transient analysis using neutronic / thermal hydraulic coupled codes including uncertainty quantification  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The KIT is involved in the development and qualification of best estimate methodologies for BWR transient analysis in cooperation with industrial partners. The goal is to establish the most advanced thermal hydraulic system codes coupled with 3D reactor dynamic codes to be able to perform a more realistic evaluation of the BWR behavior under accidental conditions. For this purpose a computational chain based on the lattice code (SCALE6/GenPMAXS), the coupled neutronic/thermal hydraulic code (TRACE/PARCS) as well as a Monte Carlo based uncertainty and sensitivity package (SUSA) has been established and applied to different kind of transients of a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR). This paper will describe the multidimensional models of the plant elaborated for TRACE and PARCS to perform the investigations mentioned before. For the uncertainty quantification of the coupled code TRACE/PARCS and specifically to take into account the influence of the kinetics parameters in such studies, the PARCS code has been extended to facilitate the change of model parameters in such a way that the SUSA package can be used in connection with TRACE/PARCS for the U and S studies. This approach will be presented in detail. The results obtained for a rod drop transient with TRACE/PARCS using the SUSA-methodology showed clearly the importance of some kinetic parameters on the transient progression demonstrating that the coupling of a best-estimate coupled codes with uncertainty and sensitivity tools is very promising and of great importance for the safety assessment of nuclear reactors. (authors)

Hartmann, C.; Sanchez, V. [Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT), Inst. for Neutron Physics and Reactor Technology INR, Hermann-vom-Helmholtz-Platz-1, D-76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Tietsch, W. [Westinghouse Electric Germany GmbH, Mannheim (Germany); Stieglitz, R. [Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT), Inst. for Neutron Physics and Reactor Technology INR, Hermann-vom-Helmholtz-Platz-1, D-76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

154

Report on INL Activities for Uncertainty Reduction Analysis of FY11  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents the status of activities performed at INL under the ARC Work Package on 'Uncertainty Reduction Analyses' that has a main goal the reduction of uncertainties associated with nuclear data on neutronic integral parameters of interest for the design of advanced fast reactors under consideration by the ARC program. First, an analysis of experiments was carried out. For both JOYO (the first Japanese fast reactor) and ZPPR-9 (a large size zero power plutonium fueled experiment performed at ANL-W in Idaho) the performance of ENDF/B-VII.0 is quite satisfying except for the sodium void configurations of ZPPR-9, but for which one has to take into account the approximation of the modeling. In fact, when one uses a more detailed model (calculations performed at ANL in a companion WP) more reasonable results are obtained. A large effort was devoted to the analysis of the irradiation experiments, PROFIL-1 and -2 and TRAPU, performed at the French fast reactor PHENIX. For these experiments a pre-release of the ENDF/B-VII.1 cross section files was also used, in order to provide validation feedback to the CSWEG nuclear data evaluation community. In the PROFIL experiments improvements can be observed for the ENDF/B-VII.1 capture data in 238Pu, 241Am, 244Cm, 97Mo, 151Sm, 153Eu, and for 240Pu(n,2n). On the other hand, 240,242Pu, 95Mo, 133Cs and 145Nd capture C/E results are worse. For the major actinides 235U and especially 239Pu capture C/E's are underestimated. For fission products, 105,106Pd, 143,144Nd and 147,149Sm are significantly underestimated, while 101Ru and 151Sm are overestimated. Other C/E deviations from unity are within the combined experimental and calculated statistical uncertainty. From the TRAPU analysis, the major improvement is in the predicted 243Cm build-up, presumably due to an improved 242Cm capture evaluation. The COSMO experiment was also analyzed in order to provide useful feedback on fission cross sections. It was found out that ENDF/B-VII.1 238,240Pu fission cross sections have improved with respect to VII.0 files while 242Pu's fission cross section has not.

G. Plamiotti; H. Hiruta; M. Salvatores

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

TRITIUM UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR SURFACE WATER SAMPLES AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Radiochemical analyses of surface water samples, in the framework of Environmental Monitoring, have associated uncertainties for the radioisotopic results reported. These uncertainty analyses pertain to the tritium results from surface water samples collected at five locations on the Savannah River near the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS). Uncertainties can result from the field-sampling routine, can be incurred during transport due to the physical properties of the sample, from equipment limitations, and from the measurement instrumentation used. The uncertainty reported by the SRS in their Annual Site Environmental Report currently considers only the counting uncertainty in the measurements, which is the standard reporting protocol for radioanalytical chemistry results. The focus of this work is to provide an overview of all uncertainty components associated with SRS tritium measurements, estimate the total uncertainty according to ISO 17025, and to propose additional experiments to verify some of the estimated uncertainties. The main uncertainty components discovered and investigated in this paper are tritium absorption or desorption in the sample container, HTO/H{sub 2}O isotopic effect during distillation, pipette volume, and tritium standard uncertainty. The goal is to quantify these uncertainties and to establish a combined uncertainty in order to increase the scientific depth of the SRS Annual Site Environmental Report.

Atkinson, R.

2012-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

156

Why Do Motor Gasoline Prices Vary Regionally? California Case Study  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Analysis of the difference between the retail gasoline prices in California and the average U.S. retail prices.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A detailed performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP was carried out in 1996 and supports an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. The 1996 WIPP PA uses a computational structure that maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period that applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from the imprecision with which many of the quantities required in the PA are known. Important parts of this structure are (1) the use of Latin hypercube sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncertainty, (2) the use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncertainty, and (3) the efficient use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to support the analysis. The use of Latin hypercube sampling generates a mapping from imprecisely known analysis inputs to analysis outcomes of interest that provides both a display of the uncertainty in analysis outcomes (i.e., uncertainty analysis) and a basis for investigating the effects of individual inputs on these outcomes (i.e., sensitivity analysis). The sensitivity analysis procedures used in the PA include examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, and partial correlation analysis. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained as part of the 1996 WIPP PA are presented and discussed. Specific topics considered include two phase flow in the vicinity of the repository, radionuclide release from the repository, fluid flow and radionuclide transport in formations overlying the repository, and complementary cumulative distribution functions used in comparisons with regulatory standards (i.e., 40 CFR 191, Subpart B).

Bean, J.E.; Berglund, J.W.; Davis, F.J.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; MacKinnon, R.J.; Miller, J.; O'Brien, D.G.; Ramsey, J.L.; Schreiber, J.D.; Shinta, A.; Smith, L.N.; Stockman, C.; Stoelzel, D.M.; Vaughn, P.

1998-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Japan's Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market: An Analysis of Residential System Prices (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes market and policy factors influencing residential solar photovoltaic system prices in Japan, and compares these factors to related developments in the United States.

James, T.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Uncertainty Analysis on the Design of Thermal Conductivity Measurement by a Guarded Cut-Bar Technique  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A technique adapted from the guarded-comparative-longitudinal heat flow method was selected for the measurement of the thermal conductivity of a nuclear fuel compact over a temperature range characteristic of its usage. This technique fulfills the requirement for non-destructive measurement of the composite compact. Although numerous measurement systems have been created based on the guarded comparative method, comprehensive systematic (bias) and measurement (precision) uncertainty associated with this technique have not been fully analyzed. In addition to the geometric effect in the bias error, which has been analyzed previously, this paper studies the working condition which is another potential error source. Using finite element analysis, this study showed the effect of these two types of error sources in the thermal conductivity measurement process and the limitations in the design selection of various parameters by considering their effect on the precision error. The results and conclusions provide valuable reference for designing and operating an experimental measurement system using this technique.

Jeff Phillips; Changhu Xing; Colby Jensen; Heng Ban1

2011-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the DAKOTA software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of DAKOTA-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of DAKOTA's iterative analysis capabilities.

Eldred, Michael Scott; Vigil, Dena M.; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Lefantzi, Sophia (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Eddy, John P.

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

PRICE LEVELS AND DISPERSION WITH ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??In the extensive literature on price dispersions that exists to date, there is a gap in the analysis of how market structure affects prices as… (more)

Bhattacharya, Tanmoy

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

Uncertainty Analysis in Upscaling Well Log data By Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

developments with the advent of super high-speed and mass-storage computers. In spite of these improvements, however, there is still considerable uncertainty in data measurements, processing, interpreta- tion, etc. due to the limitation of geological... scale, and seismic data indicate from meter to decimeter scale. In practice, damaged samples and washout in boring tool could be causes of inaccurate data. Uncertainty in geophysics can be classified according to both geologic uncertainty and measurement...

Hwang, Kyubum

2010-01-16T23:59:59.000Z

163

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods for improving design robustness and reliability  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Engineering systems of the modern day are increasingly complex, often involving numerous components, countless mathematical models, and large, globally-distributed design teams. These features all contribute uncertainty ...

He, Qinxian, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

164

Uncertainty Analysis of Certified Photovoltaic Measurements at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Discusses NREL Photovoltaic Cell and Module Performance Characterization Group's procedures to achieve lowest practical uncertainty in measuring PV performance with respect to reference conditions.

Emery, K.

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

165

Quasiparticle random phase approximation uncertainties and their correlations in the analysis of neutrinoless double beta decay  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The variances and covariances associated to the nuclear matrix elements (NME) of neutrinoless double beta decay are estimated within the quasiparticle random phase approximation (QRPA). It is shown that correlated NME uncertainties play an important role in the comparison of neutrinoless double beta decay rates for different nuclei, and that they are degenerate with the uncertainty in the reconstructed Majorana neutrino mass.

Amand Faessler; G. L. Fogli; E. Lisi; V. Rodin; A. M. Rotunno; F. Simkovic

2009-03-06T23:59:59.000Z

166

Using Uncertainty Analysis to Guide the Development of Accelerated Stress Tests (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Extrapolation of accelerated testing to the long-term results expected in the field has uncertainty associated with the acceleration factors and the range of possible stresses in the field. When multiple stresses (such as temperature and humidity) can be used to increase the acceleration, the uncertainty may be reduced according to which stress factors are used to accelerate the degradation.

Kempe, M.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

167

Introduction to Macroeconomic Dynamics Special Issue on Oil Price Shocks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Introduction to Macroeconomic Dynamics Special Issue on Oil Price Shocks Apostolos Serletisy in macroeconometrics and ...nancial econometrics to investigate the e¤ects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity. JEL classi...cation: G31, E32, C32. Keywords: Oil price

Garousi, Vahid

168

PEBBED Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of the CRP-5 PBMR DLOFC Transient Benchmark with the SUSA Code  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The need for a defendable and systematic uncertainty and sensitivity approach that conforms to the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) process, and that could be used for a wide variety of software codes, was defined in 2008. The GRS (Gesellschaft für Anlagen und Reaktorsicherheit) company of Germany has developed one type of CSAU approach that is particularly well suited for legacy coupled core analysis codes, and a trial version of their commercial software product SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses) was acquired on May 12, 2010. This report summarized the results of the initial investigations performed with SUSA, utilizing a typical High Temperature Reactor benchmark (the IAEA CRP-5 PBMR 400MW Exercise 2) and the PEBBED-THERMIX suite of codes. The following steps were performed as part of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis: 1. Eight PEBBED-THERMIX model input parameters were selected for inclusion in the uncertainty study: the total reactor power, inlet gas temperature, decay heat, and the specific heat capability and thermal conductivity of the fuel, pebble bed and reflector graphite. 2. The input parameters variations and probability density functions were specified, and a total of 800 PEBBED-THERMIX model calculations were performed, divided into 4 sets of 100 and 2 sets of 200 Steady State and Depressurized Loss of Forced Cooling (DLOFC) transient calculations each. 3. The steady state and DLOFC maximum fuel temperature, as well as the daily pebble fuel load rate data, were supplied to SUSA as model output parameters of interest. The 6 data sets were statistically analyzed to determine the 5% and 95% percentile values for each of the 3 output parameters with a 95% confidence level, and typical statistical indictors were also generated (e.g. Kendall, Pearson and Spearman coefficients). 4. A SUSA sensitivity study was performed to obtain correlation data between the input and output parameters, and to identify the primary contributors to the output data uncertainties. It was found that the uncertainties in the decay heat, pebble bed and reflector thermal conductivities were responsible for the bulk of the propagated uncertainty in the DLOFC maximum fuel temperature. It was also determined that the two standard deviation (2s) uncertainty on the maximum fuel temperature was between ±58oC (3.6%) and ±76oC (4.7%) on a mean value of 1604 oC. These values mostly depended on the selection of the distributions types, and not on the number of model calculations above the required Wilks criteria (a (95%,95%) statement would usually require 93 model runs).

Gerhard Strydom

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

An analysis of appraised values and actual transaction prices in the US CMBS market  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis addresses the characteristics of transaction-based indices and appraisal-based indices and compares the difference between appraisal and transaction price in the United States Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities ...

Dolan, Yili Zhong

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Multi-criteria analysis : an alternative approach for the evaluation of road pricing strategies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Interest in road pricing among political leaders, transportation analysts, academics, and government agencies has increased in recent years. There are myriad reasons for this newfound consideration, but the deployment of ...

Ensor, Jeffrey D. (Jeffrey Douglas)

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases.

Meyer, Philip D.; Gee, Glendon W.; Nicholson, Thomas J.

2000-02-28T23:59:59.000Z

172

Empirical Analysis of the Spot Market Implications ofPrice-Responsive Demand  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Regardless of the form of restructuring, deregulatedelectricity industries share one common feature: the absence of anysignificant, rapid demand-side response to the wholesale (or, spotmarket) price. For a variety of reasons, most electricity consumers stillpay an average cost based regulated retail tariff held over from the eraof vertical integration, even as the retailers themselves are oftenforced to purchase electricity at volatile wholesale prices set in openmarkets. This results in considerable price risk for retailers, who aresometimes additionally forbidden by regulators from signing hedgingcontracts. More importantly, because end-users do not perceive real-time(or even hourly or daily) fluctuations in the wholesale price ofelectricity, they have no incentive to adjust their consumptionaccordingly. Consequently, demand for electricity is highly inelastic,which together with the non storability of electricity that requiresmarket clearing over very short time steps spawn many other problemsassociated with electricity markets, such as exercise of market power andprice volatility. Indeed, electricity generation resources can bestretched to the point where system adequacy is threatened. Economictheory suggests that even modest price responsiveness can relieve thestress on generation resources and decrease spot prices. To quantify thiseffect, actual generator bid data from the New York control area is usedto construct supply stacks and intersect them with demand curves ofvarious slopes to approximate the effect of different levels of demandresponse. The potential impact of real-time pricing (RTP) on theequilibrium spot price and quantity is then estimated. These resultsindicate the immediate benefits that could be derived from a moreprice-responsive demand providing policymakers with a measure of howprices can be potentially reduced and consumption maintained within thecapability of generation assets.

Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Bartholomew, Emily S.; Marnay, Chris

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Program Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaics R&D  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) conducted a 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis to better assess its cost goals for concentrating solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) systems, and to potentially rebalance its R&D portfolio. This report details the methodology, schedule, and results of this technical risk and uncertainty analysis.

McVeigh, J.; Lausten, M.; Eugeni, E.; Soni, A.

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

An Example Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Reactive Transport at the Horonobe Site for Performance Assessment Calculations.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Given pre-existing Groundwater Modeling System (GMS) models of the Horonobe Underground Research Laboratory (URL) at both the regional and site scales, this work performs an example uncertainty analysis for performance assessment (PA) applications. After a general overview of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques, the existing GMS site-scale model is converted to a PA model of the steady-state conditions expected after URL closure. This is done to examine the impact of uncertainty in site-specific data in conjunction with conceptual model uncertainty regarding the location of the Oomagari Fault. A heterogeneous stochastic model is developed and corresponding flow fields and particle tracks are calculated. In addition, a quantitative analysis of the ratio of dispersive to advective forces, the F-ratio, is performed for stochastic realizations of each conceptual model. Finally, a one-dimensional transport abstraction is modeled based on the particle path lengths and the materials through which each particle passes to yield breakthrough curves at the model boundary. All analyses indicate that accurate characterization of the Oomagari Fault with respect to both location and hydraulic conductivity is critical to PA calculations. This work defines and outlines typical uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures and demonstrates them with example PA calculations relevant to the Horonobe URL. Acknowledgement: This project was funded by Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC). This work was conducted jointly between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and JNC under a joint JNC/U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) work agreement. Performance assessment calculations were conducted and analyzed at SNL based on a preliminary model by Kashima, Quintessa, and JNC and include significant input from JNC to make sure the results are relevant for the Japanese nuclear waste program.

James, Scott; Cohan, Alexander [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM] [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Guidance on uncertainty and use of experts  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motion will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreement among experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of ground motion for design at a given site. In order to review the present state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) co-sponsored a project to provide methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project has been carried out by a seven-member Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) supported by a large number other experts. The SSHAC reviewed past studies, including the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the EPRI landmark PSHA studies of the 1980`s and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. The Committee`s most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are due to procedural rather than technical differences. Thus, in addition to providing a detailed documentation on state-of-the-art elements of a PSHA, this report provides a series of procedural recommendations. The role of experts is analyzed in detail. Two entities are formally defined-the Technical Integrator (TI) and the Technical Facilitator Integrator (TFI)--to account for the various levels of complexity in the technical issues and different levels of efforts needed in a given study.

Budnitz, R.J.; Apostolakis, G.; Boore, D.M. [and others

1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

176

Essays on Price Dynamics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2.3 Wholesale Price vs. Retailof Adjustment - Regular Price, Sales Price and Wholesaleand Vertical Structure -Wholesale price (Weeks)100 Price

Hong, Gee Hee

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

Evaluating and developing parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis methods for a computationally intensive distributed hydrological model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study focuses on developing and evaluating efficient and effective parameter calibration and uncertainty methods for hydrologic modeling. Five single objective optimization algorithms and six multi-objective optimization algorithms were tested...

Zhang, Xuesong

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

178

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Events in the United States: An Uncertainty Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in ...

Monier, Erwan

179

Electricity generation and emissions reduction decisions under uncertainty : a general equilibrium analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The electric power sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, will be a critical component of any policy the U.S. government pursues to confront climate change. In the context of uncertainty ...

Morris, Jennifer F. (Jennifer Faye)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

System level assessment of uncertainty in aviation environmental policy impact analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis demonstrates the assessment of uncertainty of a simulation model at the system level, which takes into account the interaction between the modules that comprise the system. Results from this system level ...

Liem, Rhea Patricia

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

Electricity Generation and Emissions Reduction Decisions under Policy Uncertainty: A General Equilibrium Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The electric power sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, will be a critical component of any policy the U.S. government pursues to confront climate change. In the context of uncertainty ...

Morris, J.

182

Pricing statistics sourcebook. 5. edition  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Thousands of historical and current prices for crude oil, NGL, petroleum products, natural gas and electric power are presented in easy to read tables. The book includes spot, posted and future prices; prices by state and by country; and monthly and annual prices. Most monthly price series go back 25 years. This comprehensive source for energy industry prices is a must for anyone involved in planning and budgeting. The Pricing Statistics Sourcebook has all of the essential key energy price statistics needed for analysis of the US and international oil and gas industries. Also include: an appendix of IEA, OECD and OPEC member lists, conversion factors heat content of fuels; and major events affecting the oil and gas industry since 1859. The book includes a summary analysis of significant changes in key data series written by Bob Beck, Economics Editor of the Oil and Gas Journal.

NONE

1999-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

183

Milk Pricing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This publication discusses the federal orders that govern the marketing of milk. The production location and form of the milk product affect the way it is priced. The different classes of milk and their prices are explained in detail....

Anderson, David P.; Haigh, Michael; Stockton, Matthew; Schwart Jr., Robert B.

2001-09-10T23:59:59.000Z

184

Cheese Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cheese prices are derived from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News, the National Agricultural Statistics Service, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This publication explains the process of cheese pricing. It includes information...

Schwart Jr., Robert B.; Anderson, David P.; Knutson, Ronald D.

2003-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

185

Regular price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

D-LINK DWL-1000AP 802.11B Wireless LAN Access Point 11Mbps Best Deal On Earth! Regular price: $399.00. Sale price: $234.00. DWL-120> D-LINK ...

186

Price discrimination and limits to arbitrage: An analysis of global LNG markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-ful?lling properties. 2 large-scale emergence of shale gas over the last few years has put strong downward pressure on US natural gas prices. Second, the US at present only has very limited LNG export capability; its infrastructure still re?ects the assumption... -seller pairings, but information on such individual transactions is generally unavailable. Also widely reported is an LNG price based on the Japanese Crude Cocktail (JCC); this re?ects oil-linked pric- ing formulae that underlie long-term supply contracts? rather...

Ritz, Robert A.

2014-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

187

Class Pricing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A contract with K-class pricing divides a large set of goods or services into K classes and assigns a single price to any element of a class. Class pricing can be efficient when several different versions may be traded and ...

Wernerfelt, Birger

2008-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

188

CO? price impact on Dell's supply chain : a framework for carbon footprint economic analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The principal scope of this project is to design, analyze and report a case study of how to effectively account for the highly likely scenario of a CO2 price policy (cap-and-trade or tax) with regard to Dell's product and ...

Colón-Jiménez, Ely X

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Uncertainty Analysis of Spectral Irradiance Reference Standards Used for NREL Calibrations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Spectral irradiance produced by lamp standards such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) FEL-type tungsten halogen lamps are used to calibrate spectroradiometers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Spectroradiometers are often used to characterize spectral irradiance of solar simulators, which in turn are used to characterize photovoltaic device performance, e.g., power output and spectral response. Therefore, quantifying the calibration uncertainty of spectroradiometers is critical to understanding photovoltaic system performance. In this study, we attempted to reproduce the NIST-reported input variables, including the calibration uncertainty in spectral irradiance for a standard NIST lamp, and quantify uncertainty for measurement setup at the Optical Metrology Laboratory at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Habte, A.; Andreas, A.; Reda, I.; Campanelli, M.; Stoffel, T.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

Incorporating uncertainty into electric utility projections and decisions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper focuses on how electric utility companies can respond in their decision making to uncertain variables. Here we take a mean- variance type of approach. The mean'' value is an expected cost, on a discounted value basis. We assume that management has risk preferences incorporating a tradeoff between the mean and variance in the utility's net income. Decisions that utilities are faced with can be classified into two types: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante decisions need to be made prior to the uncertainty being revealed and the ex post decision can be postponed until after the uncertainty is revealed. Intuitively, we can say that the ex ante decisions provide a hedge against the uncertainties and the ex post decisions allow the negative outcomes of uncertain variables to be partially mitigated, dampening the losses. An example of an ex post decision is how the system is operated i.e., unit dispatch, and in some cases switching among types of fuels, say with different sulfur contents. For example, if gas prices go up, natural gas combined cycle units are likely to be dispatched at lower capacity factors. If SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices go up, a utility may seek to switch into a lower sulfur coal. Here we assume that regulated electric utilities do have some incentive to lower revenue requirements and hence an incentive to lower the electric rates needed for the utility to break even, thereby earning a fair return on invested capital. This paper presents the general approach first, including applications to capacity expansion and system dispatch. Then a case study is presented focusing on the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments including SO{sub 2} emissions abatement and banking of allowances under uncertainty. It is concluded that the emission banking decisions should not be made in isolation but rather all the uncertainties in demand, fuel prices, technology performance etc., should be included in the uncertainty analysis affecting emission banking.

Hanson, D.A.

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Incorporating uncertainty into electric utility projections and decisions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper focuses on how electric utility companies can respond in their decision making to uncertain variables. Here we take a mean- variance type of approach. The ``mean`` value is an expected cost, on a discounted value basis. We assume that management has risk preferences incorporating a tradeoff between the mean and variance in the utility`s net income. Decisions that utilities are faced with can be classified into two types: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante decisions need to be made prior to the uncertainty being revealed and the ex post decision can be postponed until after the uncertainty is revealed. Intuitively, we can say that the ex ante decisions provide a hedge against the uncertainties and the ex post decisions allow the negative outcomes of uncertain variables to be partially mitigated, dampening the losses. An example of an ex post decision is how the system is operated i.e., unit dispatch, and in some cases switching among types of fuels, say with different sulfur contents. For example, if gas prices go up, natural gas combined cycle units are likely to be dispatched at lower capacity factors. If SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices go up, a utility may seek to switch into a lower sulfur coal. Here we assume that regulated electric utilities do have some incentive to lower revenue requirements and hence an incentive to lower the electric rates needed for the utility to break even, thereby earning a fair return on invested capital. This paper presents the general approach first, including applications to capacity expansion and system dispatch. Then a case study is presented focusing on the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments including SO{sub 2} emissions abatement and banking of allowances under uncertainty. It is concluded that the emission banking decisions should not be made in isolation but rather all the uncertainties in demand, fuel prices, technology performance etc., should be included in the uncertainty analysis affecting emission banking.

Hanson, D.A.

1992-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

Characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, illustrates the conceptual structure of risk assessments for complex systems. The 2008 YM PA is based on the following three conceptual entities: a probability space that characterizes aleatory uncertainty; a function that predicts consequences for individual elements of the sample space for aleatory uncertainty; and a probability space that characterizes epistemic uncertainty. These entities and their use in the characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are described and illustrated with results from the 2008 YM PA.

Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

Draft regulatory analysis: Notice of proposed rulemaking for the allocation and pricing of gasohol  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The three principal problem areas addressed are: how to price unleaded blend stock and gasohol; how blenders are to obtain unleaded blend stock to blend with ethanol to produce gasohol; and how gasohol suppliers may distribute gasohol to purchasers. The proposed pricing and allocation rules, if adopted as final rules, would be in effect for about a year, because the statutory authority for gasoline price and allocation controls has an expiration date of September 30, 1981. The principal issues addressed are: what volume of ethanol and gasohol production can be expected between now and the end of 1981; what prices these products are likely to reach, independent of the rule and its alternative; what effect the rule and its alternative may have on the price and distribution of ethanol and gasohol; and what effect the rule and its alternative may have on motor vehicle misfueling and competition in the motor gasoline industry. On supply issues, it is concluded that by December, 1981, ethanol and gasohol production should increase by a factor of 3 or 4 above present levels, enough to meet the President's goals, without requiring additional corn acreage or adversely affecting food production. Ethanol production should increase from its present level of about 92 million gallons per year (6062 B/D) to the 3, 4, and 7 hundred million gallons per year levels (20,000, 30,000, and 45,000 B/D) necessaryto produce gasohol at year-end rates of 200,000 B/D in 1980, 300,000 B/D in 1981 and 450,000 B/D in 1982. In 1980 gasohol will represent about 3.2 percent of the total gasoline market, and 7.9 percent of the total unleaded market. Gasohol should help extend, rather than adversely affect, unleaded supplies. 30 references, 8 tables.

None,

1980-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

194

The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis: Description of the Benchmark Test Cases and Phases  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The uncertainties in the HTR analysis tools are today typically assessed with sensitivity analysis and then a few important input uncertainties (typically based on a PIRT process) are varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, one wish to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Finally, there is also a renewed focus in supplying reliable covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) that can then be used in uncertainty methods. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are therefore becoming an essential component of any significant effort in data and simulation improvement. In order to address uncertainty in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling early in 2012. The project is built on the experience of the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity, but focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements. Two benchmark problems were defined with the prismatic type design represented by the MHTGR-350 design from General Atomics (GA) while a 250 MW modular pebble bed design, similar to the INET (China) and indirect-cycle PBMR (South Africa) designs are also included. In the paper more detail on the benchmark cases, the different specific phases and tasks and the latest status and plans are presented.

Frederik Reitsma; Gerhard Strydom; Bismark Tyobeka; Kostadin Ivanov

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

195

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

1 INTRODUCTION Uncertainty analysis is a fundamental part of the risk  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- precision due to lack of knowledge and information on the system. The former type of uncertainty is of- ten. In Section 2, some basic concepts about possi- bility theory are summarized; in Section 3, the de- tails about the integrated propagation framework are given; in Section 4, approaches for constructing pos

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

197

Mapping and uncertainty analysis of energy and pitch angle phase space in the DIII-D fast ion loss detector  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

New phase space mapping and uncertainty analysis of energetic ion loss data in the DIII-D tokamak provides experimental results that serve as valuable constraints in first-principles simulations of energetic ion transport. Beam ion losses are measured by the fast ion loss detector (FILD) diagnostic system consisting of two magnetic spectrometers placed independently along the outer wall. Monte Carlo simulations of mono-energetic and single-pitch ions reaching the FILDs are used to determine the expected uncertainty in the measurements. Modeling shows that the variation in gyrophase of 80 keV beam ions at the FILD aperture can produce an apparent measured energy signature spanning across 50-140 keV. These calculations compare favorably with experiments in which neutral beam prompt loss provides a well known energy and pitch distribution.

Pace, D. C., E-mail: pacedc@fusion.gat.com; Fisher, R. K.; Van Zeeland, M. A. [General Atomics, PO Box 85608, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Pipes, R. [Department of Physics, University of Hawaii, Hilo, Hawaii 96720-4091 (United States)

2014-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

198

Edgeworth Price Cycles, Cost-based Pricing and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline Markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Robbery, An Analysis of the Gasoline Crisis”, Bloomington:Dynamic Pricing in Retail gasoline Markets”, RAND Journal ofR. Gilbert. “Do Gasoline Markets Respond Asymmetrically to

Noel, Michael

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement .docx  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly8 11Energy5

200

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly8

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly80 1 August

202

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly80 1 August

203

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly80 1

204

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly80 10 1 July

205

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly80 10 1 July0

206

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly80 10 1

207

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly80 10 1May

208

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly80 10

209

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly80 10October

210

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 1 Short-TermJuly80 10October0

211

Essays on Price Dynamics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Small Regular Price Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 The Cyclicality of Effective Prices2.3 Wholesale Price vs. Retail

Hong, Gee Hee

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Uncertainties analysis of fission fraction for reactor antineutrino experiments using DRAGON  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rising interest in nuclear reactors as a source of antineutrinos for experiments motivates validated, fast, and accessible simulation to predict reactor rates. First, DRAGON was developed to calculate the fission rates of the four most important isotopes in fissions,235U,238U,239Pu and141Pu, and it was validated for PWRs using the Takahama benchmark. The fission fraction calculation function was validated through comparing our calculation results with MIT's results. we calculate the fission fraction of the Daya Bay reactor core, and compare its with those calculated by the commercial reactor simulation program SCIENCE, which is used by the Daya Bay nuclear power plant, and the results was consist with each other. The uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction was studied, and the uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction simulation is 0.6% per core for Daya Bay antineutrino experiment.

X. B. Ma; L. Z. Wang; Y. X. Chen; W. L. Zhong; F. P. An

2014-05-27T23:59:59.000Z

213

Addendum to: QRPA uncertainties and their correlations in the analysis of neutrinoless double beta decay  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In a previous article [Phys. Rev. D 79, 053001 (2009)] we estimated the correlated uncertainties associated to the nuclear matrix elements (NME) of neutrinoless double beta decay (0 nu beta beta) within the quasiparticle random phase approximation (QRPA). Such estimates encompass recent independent calculations of NMEs, and can thus still provide a fair representation of the nuclear model uncertainties. In this context, we compare the claim of 0 nu beta beta decay in Ge-76 with recent negative results in Xe-136 and in other nuclei, and we infer the lifetime ranges allowed or excluded at 90% C.L. We also highlight some issues that should be addressed in order to properly compare and combine results coming from different 0 nu beta beta decay candidate nuclei.

Amand Faessler; G. L. Fogli; E. Lisi; V. Rodin; A. M. Rotunno; F. Simkovic

2013-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

214

Essays on Three Price Judgments: Price Fairness, Price Magnitude, and Price Expectation.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This dissertation addresses three important price judgments: price fairness, price magnitude, and price expectation. Developed over three chapters, the main objective of this research is… (more)

Bhowmick, Sandeep

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Considerations for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and data assimilation for grid-to-rod fretting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Grid-to-rod fretting is the leading cause of fuel failures in pressurized water reactors, and is one of the challenge problems being addressed by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors to guide its efforts to develop a virtual reactor environment. Prior and current efforts in modeling and simulation of grid-to-rod fretting are discussed. Sources of uncertainty in grid-to-rod fretting are also described.

Michael Pernice

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

216

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis :  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Dakota (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a exible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quanti cation with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a exible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the Dakota software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

Adams, Brian M.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Eldred, Michael S.; Jakeman, John Davis; Swiler, Laura Painton; Stephens, John Adam; Vigil, Dena M.; Wildey, Timothy Michael; Bohnhoff, William J.; Eddy, John P.; Hu, Kenneth T.; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bauman, Lara E; Hough, Patricia Diane

2014-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Optical Spectroscopy of Tungsten Carbide for Uncertainty Analysis in Electron Electric Dipole Moment Search  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We perform laser induced fluorescence(LIF) spectroscopy on a pulsed supersonic beam of tungsten carbide(WC) molecules, which has been proposed as a candidate molecular system for a permanent Electric Dipole Moment(EDM) search of the electron in its rovibrational ground state of the X3Delta1 state. In particular, [20.6]Omega=2, v'=4 <- X3Delta1,v"=0 transition at 485nm was used for the detection. The hyperfine structure and the Omega-doublet of the transition are measured, which are essential for estimating the size of the potential systematic uncertainties for electron EDM measurement. For further suppression of the systematic uncertainty, an alternative electron EDM measurement scheme utilizing the g factor crossing point of the Omega-doublet levels is discussed. On the other hand, flux and internal temperature of the molecular beam are characterized, which sets the limit on the statistical uncertainty of the electron EDM experiment. With the given results, the prospect of electron EDM experiment with the...

Lee, J; Skripnikov, L V; Petrov, A N; Titov, A V; Mosyagin, N S; Leanhardt, A E

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

An Analysis of the Effects of Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in California  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An increasing number of homes in the U.S. have sold with photovoltaic (PV) energy systems installed at the time of sale, yet relatively little research exists that estimates the marginal impacts of those PV systems on home sale prices. A clearer understanding of these possible impacts might influence the decisions of homeowners considering the installation of a PV system, homebuyers considering the purchase of a home with PV already installed, and new home builders considering including PV as an optional or standard product on their homes. This research analyzes a large dataset of California homes that sold from 2000 through mid-2009 with PV installed. It finds strong evidence that homes with PV systems sold for a premium over comparable homes without PV systems during this time frame. Estimates for this premium expressed in dollars per watt of installed PV range, on average, from roughly $4 to $5.5/watt across a large number of hedonic and repeat sales model specifications and robustness tests. When expressed as a ratio of the sales price premium of PV to estimated annual energy cost savings associated with PV, an average ratio of 14:1 to 19:1 can be calculated; these results are consistent with those of the more-extensive existing literature on the impact of energy efficiency on sales prices. When the data are split among new and existing homes, however, PV system premiums are markedly affected. New homes with PV show premiums of $2.3-2.6/watt, while existing homes with PV show premiums of more than $6/watt. Reasons for this discrepancy are suggested, yet further research is warranted. A number of other areas where future research would be useful are also highlighted.

Hoen, Ben; Cappers, Peter; Wiser, Ryan; Thayer, Mark

2011-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

220

What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price? Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bitcoin has emerged as a fascinating phenomenon of the financial markets. Without any central authority issuing the currency, it has been associated with controversy ever since its popularity and public interest reached high levels. Here, we contribute to the discussion by examining potential drivers of Bitcoin prices ranging from fundamental to speculative and technical sources as well as a potential influence of the Chinese market. The evolution of the relationships is examined in both time and frequency domains utilizing the continuous wavelets framework so that we comment on development of the interconnections in time but we can also distinguish between short-term and long-term connections.

Kristoufek, Ladislav

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Analysis of sampling plan options for tank 16H from the perspective of statistical uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report develops a concentration variability model for Tank 16H in order to compare candidate sampling plans for assessing the concentrations of analytes in the residual material in the annulus and on the floor of the primary vessel. A concentration variability model is used to compare candidate sampling plans based on the expected upper 95% confidence limit (UCL95) for the mean. The result is expressed as a rank order of candidate sampling plans from lowest to highest expected UCL95, with the lowest being the most desirable from an uncertainty perspective.

Shine, E. P.

2013-02-28T23:59:59.000Z

222

Proposal for the utilization of the total cross section covariances and its correlations with channel reactions for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An alternate method for the estimation of the global uncertainty on criticality, using the total cross section and its covariances, is proposed. Application of the method with currently available covariance data leads to an unrealistically large prediction of the global uncertainty on criticality. New covariances for total cross section and individual reactions are proposed. Analysis with the proposed covariance matrices is found to result in a global uncertainty for criticality consistent with the traditional method. Recommendations are made to evaluators for providing total cross section covariances. (authors)

Sabouri, P.; Bidaud, A. [Labratoire de Physique Subatomique et de Cosmologie, CNRS-IN2P3/UJF/INPG, Grenoble (France); Dabiran, S.; Buijs, A. [Dept. of Engineering Physics, McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

REVIEW OF MECHANISTIC UNDERSTANDING AND MODELING AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR PREDICTING CEMENTITIOUS BARRIER PERFORMANCE  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Cementitious barriers for nuclear applications are one of the primary controls for preventing or limiting radionuclide release into the environment. At the present time, performance and risk assessments do not fully incorporate the effectiveness of engineered barriers because the processes that influence performance are coupled and complicated. Better understanding the behavior of cementitious barriers is necessary to evaluate and improve the design of materials and structures used for radioactive waste containment, life extension of current nuclear facilities, and design of future nuclear facilities, including those needed for nuclear fuel storage and processing, nuclear power production and waste management. The focus of the Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) literature review is to document the current level of knowledge with respect to: (1) mechanisms and processes that directly influence the performance of cementitious materials (2) methodologies for modeling the performance of these mechanisms and processes and (3) approaches to addressing and quantifying uncertainties associated with performance predictions. This will serve as an important reference document for the professional community responsible for the design and performance assessment of cementitious materials in nuclear applications. This review also provides a multi-disciplinary foundation for identification, research, development and demonstration of improvements in conceptual understanding, measurements and performance modeling that would be lead to significant reductions in the uncertainties and improved confidence in the estimating the long-term performance of cementitious materials in nuclear applications. This report identifies: (1) technology gaps that may be filled by the CBP project and also (2) information and computational methods that are in currently being applied in related fields but have not yet been incorporated into performance assessments of cementitious barriers. The various chapters contain both a description of the mechanism or and a discussion of the current approaches to modeling the phenomena.

Langton, C.; Kosson, D.

2009-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

224

Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares ...

Jiang, Yueyang

225

Signal discovery, limits, and uncertainties with sparse On/Off measurements: an objective Bayesian analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

For decades researchers have studied the On/Off counting problem, where a measured rate consists of two parts. One due to a signal process and another due to a background process, of which both magnitudes are unknown. While most frequentist methods are adequate for large count numbers, they cannot be applied to sparse data. Here I want to present a new objective Bayesian solution that only depends on three parameters: the number of events in the signal region, the number of events in the background region, and the ratio of the exposure for both regions. First, the probability of the hypothesis that the counts are due to background only is derived analytically. Second, the marginalized posterior for the signal parameter is also derived analytically. With this two-step approach it is easy to calculate the signal's significance, strength, uncertainty, or upper limit in a unified way. The approach is valid without restrictions for any count number including zero and may be widely applied in particle physics, cosmic-ray physics and high-energy astrophysics. In order to demonstrate its performance I apply the method to gamma-ray burst data.

Max L. Knoetig

2014-06-11T23:59:59.000Z

226

A new approach and computational algorithm for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for SED and SAD with applications to beryllium integral experiments  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A new approach for treating the sensitivity and uncertainty in the secondary energy distribution (SED) and the secondary angular distribution (SAD) has been developed, and the existing two-dimensional sensitivity/uncertainty analysis code, FORSS, was expanded to incorporate the new approach. The calculational algorithm was applied to the [sup 9]Be(n,2n) cross section to study the effect of the current uncertainties in the SED and SAD of neutrons emitted from this reaction on the prediction accuracy of the tritium production rate from [sup 6]Li(T[sub 6]) and [sup 7]Li(T[sub 7]) in an engineering-oriented fusion integral experiment of the US Department of Energy/Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute Collaborative Program on Fusion Neutronics in which beryllium was used as a neutron multiplier. In addition, the analysis was extended to include the uncertainties in the integrated smooth cross sections of beryllium and other materials that constituted the test assembly used in the experiment. This comprehensive two-dimensional cross-section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis aimed at identifying the sources of discrepancies between calculated and measured values for T[sub 6] and T[sub 7].

Song, P.M.; Youssef, M.Z.; Abdou, M.A. (Univ. of California, Los Angeles (United States))

1993-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

MMIII* by M. Kosticwww.kostic.niu.edu Error or Uncertainty Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Gas Analysis SO2 , NO, NO2 , CO, CO2 , THC, O2Sample Tanks Particle Probe Gas Probe Exhaust DMA - Differential Mobility Analyzer CNC ­ Condensation Nuclei Counter HPLPC ­ High Pressure Large Particle Counter.kostic.niu.edu Statistical Measurement Theory · Sample - a `selected set' of `population' · Measurand - measured variable (x

Kostic, Milivoje M.

228

Adjoint-Based Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Reactor Depletion Calculations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-driven and k-eigenvalue forms of the depletion equations. We describe the implementation and verification of solvers for the forward and ad- joint equations in the PDT code, and we test the algorithms on realistic reactor analysis problems. We demonstrate a new...

Stripling, Hayes Franklin

2013-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

229

Algal Biomass Constituent Analysis: Method Uncertainties and Investigation of the Underlying Measuring Chemistries  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Algal biomass compositional analysis data form the basis of a large number of techno-economic process analysis models that are used to investigate and compare different processes in algal biofuels production. However, the analytical methods used to generate these data are far from standardized. This work investigated the applicability of common methods for rapid chemical analysis of biomass samples with respect to accuracy and precision. This study measured lipids, protein, carbohydrates, ash, and moisture of a single algal biomass sample at 3 institutions by 8 independent researchers over 12 separate workdays. Results show statistically significant differences in the results from a given analytical method among laboratories but not between analysts at individual laboratories, suggesting consistent training is a critical issue for empirical analytical methods. Significantly different results from multiple lipid and protein measurements were found to be due to different measurement chemistries. We identified a set of compositional analysis procedures that are in best agreement with data obtained by more advanced analytical procedures. The methods described here and used for the round robin experiment do not require specialized instrumentation, and with detailed analytical documentation, the differences between laboratories can be markedly reduced.

Laurens, L. M. L.; Dempster, T. A.; Jones, H. D. T.; Wolfrum, E. J.; Van Wychen, S.; McAllister, J. S. P.; Rencenberger, M.; Parchert, K. J.; Gloe, L. M.

2012-02-21T23:59:59.000Z

230

ResGrid: A Grid-Aware Toolkit for Reservoir Uncertainty Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

,000 oil producing wells, around 4K offshore. Reservoir Studies · Assessments and predictions of oil/gas oil, water or gas. · Many geological parameters cannot be measured or modeled and are unknowns. · We ­ Drilling performance analysis with high-rate data "UCOMS" #12;Oil Industry in Louisiana · Major oil

Allen, Gabrielle

231

Ubiquitous Computing, Customer Tracking, and Price Discrimination  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ubiquitous Computing, Customer Tracking, and Price Discrimination Alessandro Acquisti H. John Heinz's analysis is the possibility of combining context, historical, location and other personal data to dynamically alter the price of a product for each consumer - a form of price discrimination also known

Sadeh, Norman M.

232

Why are allowance prices so low? : an analysis of the SO2 emissions trading program  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper presents an analysis of the reduction in SO2 emissions by electric utilities between 1985 and 1993. We find that emissions have been reduced for reasons largely unrelated to the emission reduction mandate ...

Ellerman, A. Denny

1996-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

The Effect of Uncertainty on Pollution Abatement Investments: Measuring Hurdle Rates for Swedish Industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Effect of Uncertainty on Pollution Abatement Investments: Measuring Hurdle Rates for Swedish Industry Abstract: We estimate hurdle rates for firms' investments in pollution abatement technology, using, oil price uncertainty, abatement investment, sulfur emissions, pulp and paper industry, energy

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

234

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2004. “OPEC’s Optimal Crude Oil Price,” Energy Policy 32(2),percent change in real oil price. Figure 3. Price of crudein predicting quarterly real oil price change. variable real

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2004. “OPEC’s Optimal Crude Oil Price,” Energy Policy 32(2),percent change in real oil price. Figure 3. Price of crude023 Understanding Crude Oil Prices James D. Hamilton June

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

236

CASL L1 Milestone report : CASL.P4.01, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for CIPS with VIPRE-W and BOA.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The CASL Level 1 Milestone CASL.P4.01, successfully completed in December 2011, aimed to 'conduct, using methodologies integrated into VERA, a detailed sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of a crud-relevant problem with baseline VERA capabilities (ANC/VIPRE-W/BOA).' The VUQ focus area led this effort, in partnership with AMA, and with support from VRI. DAKOTA was coupled to existing VIPRE-W thermal-hydraulics and BOA crud/boron deposit simulations representing a pressurized water reactor (PWR) that previously experienced crud-induced power shift (CIPS). This work supports understanding of CIPS by exploring the sensitivity and uncertainty in BOA outputs with respect to uncertain operating and model parameters. This report summarizes work coupling the software tools, characterizing uncertainties, and analyzing the results of iterative sensitivity and uncertainty studies. These studies focused on sensitivity and uncertainty of CIPS indicators calculated by the current version of the BOA code used in the industry. Challenges with this kind of analysis are identified to inform follow-on research goals and VERA development targeting crud-related challenge problems.

Sung, Yixing (Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, Cranberry Township, PA); Adams, Brian M.; Secker, Jeffrey R. (Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, Cranberry Township, PA)

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

237

Oil Price Trackers Inspired by Immune Memory William Wilson , Phil Birkin , and Uwe Aickelin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Oil Price Trackers Inspired by Immune Memory William Wilson , Phil Birkin , and Uwe Aickelin School concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate and predict oil price time se- ries data Analysis of oil price trends The price of WTI crude oil (a world marker price for oil price movements

Aickelin, Uwe

238

Uncertainty Analysis of a Giant Oil Field in the Middle East Using Surrogate Reservoir Model Shahab D. Mohaghegh, West Virginia University  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty Analysis of a Giant Oil Field in the Middle East Using Surrogate Reservoir Model Shahab, and Maher Kenawy, ADCO ABSTRACT Simulation models are routinely used as a powerful tool for reservoir realizations and runs of the reservoir simulation model. In this day and age, as reservoir models are getting

Mohaghegh, Shahab

239

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis. Version 5.0, user's reference manual.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a reference manual for the commands specification for the DAKOTA software, providing input overviews, option descriptions, and example specifications.

Eldred, Michael Scott; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Eddy, John P.; Haskell, Karen H.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

DAKOTA, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis:version 4.0 reference manual  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a reference manual for the commands specification for the DAKOTA software, providing input overviews, option descriptions, and example specifications.

Griffin, Joshua D. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Eldred, Michael Scott; Martinez-Canales, Monica L. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Watson, Jean-Paul; Kolda, Tamara Gibson (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Williams, Pamela J. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Dunlavy, Daniel M.; Eddy, John P.; Hart, William Eugene; Guinta, Anthony A.; Brown, Shannon L.

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

International market integration for natural gas? : a cointegration analysis of priced in Europe, North America and Japan  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We examine the degree of natural gas market integration in Europe, North America and Japan, between the mid 1990?s and 2002. Our hypothesis is that there was a certain split of prices between Europe and North America. The ...

L'Hegaret, Guillaume

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Development, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification of high-fidelity arctic sea ice models.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and due to feedback effects the Arctic ice cover is changing rapidly. Predictive mathematical models are of paramount importance for accurate estimates of the future ice trajectory. However, the sea ice components of Global Climate Models (GCMs) vary significantly in their prediction of the future state of Arctic sea ice and have generally underestimated the rate of decline in minimum sea ice extent seen over the past thirty years. One of the contributing factors to this variability is the sensitivity of the sea ice to model physical parameters. A new sea ice model that has the potential to improve sea ice predictions incorporates an anisotropic elastic-decohesive rheology and dynamics solved using the material-point method (MPM), which combines Lagrangian particles for advection with a background grid for gradient computations. We evaluate the variability of the Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE code and the MPM sea ice code for a single year simulation of the Arctic basin using consistent ocean and atmospheric forcing. Sensitivities of ice volume, ice area, ice extent, root mean square (RMS) ice speed, central Arctic ice thickness, and central Arctic ice speed with respect to ten different dynamic and thermodynamic parameters are evaluated both individually and in combination using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA). We find similar responses for the two codes and some interesting seasonal variability in the strength of the parameters on the solution.

Peterson, Kara J.; Bochev, Pavel Blagoveston; Paskaleva, Biliana S.

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Neutron activation analysis of the 30Si content of highly enriched 28Si: proof of concept and estimation of the achievable uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We investigated the use of neutron activation to estimate the 30Si mole fraction of the ultra-pure silicon material highly enriched in 28Si for the measurement of the Avogadro constant. Specifically, we developed a relative method based on Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis and using a natural-Si sample as a standard. To evaluate the achievable uncertainty, we irradiated a 6 g sample of a natural-Si material and modeled experimentally the signal that would be produced by a sample of the 28Si-enriched material of similar mass and subjected to the same measurement conditions. The extrapolation of the expected uncertainty from the experimental data indicates that a measurement of the 30Si mole fraction of the 28Si-enriched material might reach a 4% relative combined standard uncertainty.

D'Agostino, Giancarlo; Oddone, Massimo; Prata, Michele; Bergamaschi, Luigi; Giordani, Laura

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

Automobile Prices, Gasoline Prices, and Consumer Demand for Fuel Economy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Automobile Prices, Gasoline Prices, and Consumer Demand for Fuel Economy Ashley Langer University evidence that automobile manufacturers set vehicle prices as if consumers respond to gasoline prices. We consumer preferences for fuel efficiency. Keywords: automobile prices, gasoline prices, environmental

Sadoulet, Elisabeth

245

Price Risk Management in the Midst of a Credit Crisis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Agricultural producers today face volatile markets, tight credit, economic uncertainty and escalating input costs. Understanding and using risk management tools in this environment can reduce much of the price risk and may improve financial returns....

Welch, Mark; Amosson, Stephen H.; Robinson, John; Falconer, Lawrence

2009-03-26T23:59:59.000Z

246

Uncertainty Analysis of Runoff Simulations and Parameter Identifiability in the Community Land Model – Evidence from MOPEX Basins  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the emergence of earth system models as important tools for understanding and predicting climate change and implications to mitigation and adaptation, it has become increasingly important to assess the fidelity of the land component within earth system models to capture realistic hydrological processes and their response to the changing climate and quantify the associated uncertainties. This study investigates the sensitivity of runoff simulations to major hydrologic parameters in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) by integrating CLM4 with a stochastic exploratory sensitivity analysis framework at 20 selected watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) spanning a wide range of climate and site conditions. We found that for runoff simulations, the most significant parameters are those related to the subsurface runoff parameterizations. Soil texture related parameters and surface runoff parameters are of secondary significance. Moreover, climate and soil conditions play important roles in the parameter sensitivity. In general, site conditions within water-limited hydrologic regimes and with finer soil texture result in stronger sensitivity of output variables, such as runoff and its surface and subsurface components, to the input parameters in CLM4. This study demonstrated the feasibility of parameter inversion for CLM4 using streamflow observations to improve runoff simulations. By ranking the significance of the input parameters, we showed that the parameter set dimensionality could be reduced for CLM4 parameter calibration under different hydrologic and climatic regimes so that the inverse problem is less ill posed.

Huang, Maoyi; Hou, Zhangshuan; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ke, Yinghai; Liu, Ying; Fang, Zhufeng; Sun, Yu

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

11 Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty Optimization Modeling Math 4794/5794: Spring 2013 Weldon A. Lodwick Weldon.Lodwick@ucdenver.edu 2/14/2013 Optimization Modeling - Spring 2013 #12 in the context of optimization problems. The theoretical frame-work for these notes is interval analysis. From

Lodwick, Weldon

248

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for two-phase flow in the vicinity of the repository in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Undisturbed conditions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant are presented for two-phase flow the vicinity of the repository under undisturbed conditions. Techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, partial correlation analysis and rank transformation are used to investigate brine inflow, gas generation repository pressure, brine saturation and brine and gas outflow. Of the variables under study, repository pressure is potentially the most important due to its influence on spallings and direct brine releases, with the uncertainty in its value being dominated by the extent to which the microbial degradation of cellulose takes place, the rate at which the corrosion of steel takes place, and the amount of brine that drains from the surrounding disturbed rock zone into the repository.

HELTON,JON CRAIG; BEAN,J.E.; ECONOMY,K.; GARNER,J.W.; MACKINNON,ROBERT J.; MILLER,JOEL D.; SCHREIBER,JAMES D.; VAUGHN,PALMER

2000-05-19T23:59:59.000Z

249

PRICE GOUGING | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

PRICE GOUGING PRICE GOUGING PRICE GOUGING More Documents & Publications PRICE GOUGING Department of Energy Response to Hurricane Katrina Fact Sheet Department of Energy Response to...

250

Price controls and international petroleum product prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The effects of Federal refined-product price controls upon the price of motor gasoline in the United States through 1977 are examined. A comparison of domestic and foreign gasoline prices is made, based on the prices of products actually moving in international trade. There is also an effort to ascribe US/foreign market price differentials to identifiable cost factors. Primary emphasis is on price comparisons at the wholesale level, although some retail comparisons are presented. The study also examines the extent to which product price controls are binding, and attempts to estimate what the price of motor gasoline would have been in the absence of controls. The time period under consideration is from 1969 through 1977, with primary focus on price relationships in 1970-1971 (just before US controls) and 1976-1977. The foreign-domestic comparisons are made with respect to four major US cities, namely, Boston, New York, New Orleans, and Los Angeles. 20 figures, 14 tables.

Deacon, R.T.; Mead, W.J.; Agarwal, V.B.

1980-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is how to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market structure, ratemaking practices and standards, and customer preferences? Third, if a primary goal for RTP implementation is to induce DR, what types of supplemental activities are warranted to support customer participation and price response (e.g., interval metering deployment, customer education, and technical assistance)?

Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper,Nicole; Ting, Michael; Neenan, Bernie

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

252

Managing Short-Term Electricity Contracts Under Uncertainty: A Minimax Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, the price of which follows supply and demand imbalances. Electricity prices, which were tightly controlled that occurred in the Midwest during the week of June 22, 1998, when the day-ahead electricity price departedManaging Short-Term Electricity Contracts Under Uncertainty: A Minimax Approach Samer Takriti

Ahmed, Shabbir

253

Assessment of Uncertainty in Cloud Radiative Effects and Heating Rates through Retrieval Algorithm Differences: Analysis using 3-years of ARM data at Darwin, Australia  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Ground-based radar and lidar observations obtained at the Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Tropical Western Pacific site located in Darwin, Australia are used to retrieve ice cloud properties in anvil and cirrus clouds. Cloud microphysical properties derived from four different retrieval algorithms (two radar-lidar and two radar only algorithms) are compared by examining mean profiles and probability density functions of effective radius (Re), ice water content (IWC), extinction, ice number concentration, ice crystal fall speed, and vertical air velocity. Retrieval algorithm uncertainty is quantified using radiative flux closure exercises. The effect of uncertainty in retrieved quantities on the cloud radiative effect and radiative heating rates are presented. Our analysis shows that IWC compares well among algorithms, but Re shows significant discrepancies, which is attributed primarily to assumptions of particle shape. Uncertainty in Re and IWC translates into sometimes-large differences in cloud radiative effect (CRE) though the majority of cases have a CRE difference of roughly 10 W m-2 on average. These differences, which we believe are primarily driven by the uncertainty in Re, can cause up to 2 K/day difference in the radiative heating rates between algorithms.

Comstock, Jennifer M.; Protat, Alain; McFarlane, Sally A.; Delanoe, Julien; Deng, Min

2013-05-22T23:59:59.000Z

254

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2004. “OPEC’s Optimal Crude Oil Price,” Energy Policy 32(2),023 Understanding Crude Oil Prices James D. Hamilton Junedirectly. Understanding Crude Oil Prices* James D. Hamilton

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

MCNP6 Results for the Phase III Sensitivity Benchmark of the OCED/NEA Expert Group on Uncertainty Analysis for Criticality Safety Assessment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Within the last decade, there has been increasing interest in the calculation of cross section sensitivity coefficients of k{sub eff} for integral experiment design and uncertainty analysis. The OECD/NEA has an Expert Group devoted to Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis within the Working Party for Nuclear Criticality Safety. This expert group has developed benchmarks to assess code capabilities and performance for doing sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Phase III of a set of sensitivity benchmarks evaluates capabilities for computing sensitivity coefficients. MCNP6 has the capability to compute cross section sensitivities for k{sub eff} using continuous-energy physics. To help verify this capability, results for the Phase III benchmark cases are generated and submitted to the Expert Group for comparison. The Phase III benchmark has three cases: III.1, an array of MOX fuel pins, III.2, a series of infinite lattices of MOX fuel pins with varying pitches, and III.3 two spheres with homogeneous mixtures of UF{sub 4} and polyethylene with different enrichments.

Kiedrowski, Brian C. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-06-19T23:59:59.000Z

256

Analysis of farm-to-retail price spreads for whole and two percent milk in seven selected cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to determine a suitable model for defining the farm-retail price spread for two percent and whole milk in seven cities (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Hartford, Seattle, St. Louis); (2) to discover...

Dickerson, Marla Lashea

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

257

Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty ·Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty ·When the nature of the test precludes

258

Analysis of ISO NE Balancing Requirements: Uncertainty-based Secure Ranges for ISO New England Dynamic Inerchange Adjustments  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The document describes detailed uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology developed by PNNL to estimate secure ranges of potential dynamic intra-hour interchange adjustments in the ISO-NE system and provides description of the dynamic interchange adjustment (DINA) tool developed under the same contract. The overall system ramping up and down capability, spinning reserve requirements, interchange schedules, load variations and uncertainties from various sources that are relevant to the ISO-NE system are incorporated into the methodology and the tool. The DINA tool has been tested by PNNL and ISO-NE staff engineers using ISO-NE data.

Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Wu, Di; Hou, Zhangshuan; Sun, Yannan; Maslennikov, S.; Luo, X.; Zheng, T.; George, S.; Knowland, T.; Litvinov, E.; Weaver, S.; Sanchez, E.

2013-01-31T23:59:59.000Z

259

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

0 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2010 Report describes the 2010 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing...

260

Uncertainty Measurement for Trace Element Analysis of Uranium and Plutonium Samples by Inductively Coupled Plasma-Atomic Emission Spectrometry (ICP-AES) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The measurement uncertainty estimatino associated with trace element analysis of impurities in U and Pu was evaluated using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty Measurement (GUM). I this evalution the uncertainty sources were identified and standard uncertainties for the components were categorized as either Type A or B. The combined standard uncertainty was calculated and a coverage factor k = 2 was applied to obtain the expanded uncertainty, U. The ICP-AES and ICP-MS methods used were deveoped for the multi-element analysis of U and Pu samples. A typical analytical run consists of standards, process blanks, samples, matrix spiked samples, post digestion spiked samples and independent calibration verification standards. The uncertainty estimation was performed on U and Pu samples that have been analyzed previously as part of the U and Pu Sample Exchange Programs. Control chart results and data from the U and Pu metal exchange programs were combined with the GUM into a concentration dependent estimate of the expanded uncertainty. Comparison of trace element uncertainties obtained using this model was compared to those obtained for trace element results as part of the Exchange programs. This process was completed for all trace elements that were determined to be above the detection limit for the U and Pu samples.

Gallimore, David L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-06-13T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Uncertainty quantification of volumetric and material balance analysis of gas reservoirs with water influx using a Bayesian framework  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

data, such as pressure and production data, are available. In this work, I propose a methodology for using a Bayesian approach to quantify the uncertainty of original gas in place (G), aquifer productivity index (J), and the volume of the aquifer (Wi...

Aprilia, Asti Wulandari

2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

262

Experimental Uncertainties (Errors) Sources of Experimental Uncertainties (Experimental Errors)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the preparation of the lab report. A calculator should 1. Bevington, P. R., Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969. 2. Taylor, J. R., An introduction to uncertainty analysis in the lab. In this laboratory, we keep to a very simple form of error analysis, our purpose being more

Mukasyan, Alexander

263

State energy price and expenditure report 1993  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 states and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the US. The five economic sectors used in SEPER correspond to those used in SEDR and are residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility. Documentation in appendices describe how the price estimates are developed, provide conversion factors for measures used in the energy analysis, and include a glossary. 65 tabs.

NONE

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Volatility of Power Grids Under Real-Time Pricing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power systems with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Characterized by passing on the ...

Roozbehani, Mardavij

265

International black tea market integration and price discovery  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(2000) considered price relationships among three milk markets in Kyrgyzstan. They used cointegration analysis to see if milk market prices of two private sector and one government sector markets are integrated. They concluded that two private sector...

Dharmasena, Kalu Arachchillage Senarath Dhananjaya Bandara

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

266

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

consumption would be reduced and incentives for production increased whenever the price of crude oil

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas

268

Enhance accuracy in Software cost and schedule estimation by using "Uncertainty Analysis and Assessment" in the system modeling process  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Accurate software cost and schedule estimation are essential for software project success. Often it referred to as the "black art" because of its complexity and uncertainty, software estimation is not as difficult or puzzling as people think. In fact, generating accurate estimates is straightforward-once you understand the intensity of uncertainty and framework for the modeling process. The mystery to successful software estimation-distilling academic information and real-world experience into a practical guide for working software professionals. Instead of arcane treatises and rigid modeling techniques, this will guide highlights a proven set of procedures, understandable formulas, and heuristics that individuals and development teams can apply to their projects to help achieve estimation proficiency with choose appropriate development approaches In the early stage of software life cycle project manager are inefficient to estimate the effort, schedule, cost estimation and its development approach .This in tu...

Vasantrao, Kardile Vilas

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis. Version 5.0, developers manual.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a developers manual for the DAKOTA software and describes the DAKOTA class hierarchies and their interrelationships. It derives directly from annotation of the actual source code and provides detailed class documentation, including all member functions and attributes.

Eldred, Michael Scott; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Eddy, John P.; Haskell, Karen H.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis. Version 5.0, user's manual.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the DAKOTA software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

Eldred, Michael Scott; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Eddy, John P.; Haskell, Karen H.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

Nonlinear sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in support of the blowdown heat transfer program. [Test 177 at Thermal-Hydraulic Test Facility  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A nonlinear uncertainty analysis methodology based on the use of first and second order sensitivity coefficients is presented. As a practical demonstration, an uncertainty analysis of several responses of interest is performed for Test 177, which is part of a series of tests conducted at the Thermal-Hydraulic Test Facility (THTF) of the ORNL Engineering Technology Division Pressurized Water Reactor-Blowdown Heat Transfer (PWR-BDHT) program. These space- and time-dependent responses are: mass flow rate, temperature, pressure, density, enthalpy, and water qualtiy - in several volumetric regions of the experimental facility. The analysis shows that, over parts of the transient, the responses behave as linear functions of the input parameters; in these cases, their standard deviations are of the same order of magnitude as those of the input parameters. Otherwise, the responses exhibit nonlinearities and their standard deviations are considerably larger. The analysis also shows that the degree of nonlinearity of the responses is highly dependent on their volumetric locations.

Ronen, Y.; Bjerke, M.A.; Cacuci, D.G.; Barhen, J.

1980-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

272

DAKOTA, a multilevel parellel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis:version 4.0 uers's manual.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the DAKOTA software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

Griffin, Joshua D. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Eldred, Michael Scott; Martinez-Canales, Monica L. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Watson, Jean-Paul; Kolda, Tamara Gibson (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Giunta, Anthony Andrew; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Williams, Pamela J. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Dunlavy, Daniel M.; Eddy, John P.; Hart, William Eugene; Brown, Shannon L.

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis:version 4.0 developers manual.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a developers manual for the DAKOTA software and describes the DAKOTA class hierarchies and their interrelationships. It derives directly from annotation of the actual source code and provides detailed class documentation, including all member functions and attributes.

Griffin, Joshua D. (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Eldred, Michael Scott; Martinez-Canales, Monica L. (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Watson, Jean-Paul; Kolda, Tamara Gibson (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Giunta, Anthony Andrew; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Williams, Pamela J. (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Dunlavy, Daniel M.; Eddy, John P.; Hart, William Eugene; Brown, Shannon L.

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

274

Large-Scale Uncertainty and Error Analysis for Time-dependent Fluid/Structure Interactions in Wind Turbine Applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The following is the final report covering the entire period of this aforementioned grant, June 1, 2011 - May 31, 2013 for the portion of the effort corresponding to Stanford University (SU). SU has partnered with Sandia National Laboratories (PI: Mike S. Eldred) and Purdue University (PI: Dongbin Xiu) to complete this research project and this final report includes those contributions made by the members of the team at Stanford. Dr. Eldred is continuing his contributions to this project under a no-cost extension and his contributions to the overall effort will be detailed at a later time (once his effort has concluded) on a separate project submitted by Sandia National Laboratories. At Stanford, the team is made up of Profs. Alonso, Iaccarino, and Duraisamy, post-doctoral researcher Vinod Lakshminarayan, and graduate student Santiago Padron. At Sandia National Laboratories, the team includes Michael Eldred, Matt Barone, John Jakeman, and Stefan Domino, and at Purdue University, we have Prof. Dongbin Xiu as our main collaborator. The overall objective of this project was to develop a novel, comprehensive methodology for uncertainty quantification by combining stochastic expansions (nonintrusive polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation), the adjoint approach, and fusion with experimental data to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties from random variable, random field, and model form sources. The expected outcomes of this activity were detailed in the proposal and are repeated here to set the stage for the results that we have generated during the time period of execution of this project: 1. The rigorous determination of an error budget comprising numerical errors in physical space and statistical errors in stochastic space and its use for optimal allocation of resources; 2. A considerable increase in efficiency when performing uncertainty quantification with a large number of uncertain variables in complex non-linear multi-physics problems; 3. A solution to the long-time integration problem of spectral chaos approaches; 4. A rigorous methodology to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, to emphasize the most important variables via dimension reduction and dimension-adaptive refinement, and to support fusion with experimental data using Bayesian inference; 5. The application of novel methodologies to time-dependent reliability studies in wind turbine applications including a number of efforts relating to the uncertainty quantification in vertical-axis wind turbine applications. In this report, we summarize all accomplishments in the project (during the time period specified) focusing on advances in UQ algorithms and deployment efforts to the wind turbine application area. Detailed publications in each of these areas have also been completed and are available from the respective conference proceedings and journals as detailed in a later section.

Alonso, Juan J. [Stanford University; Iaccarino, Gianluca [Stanford University

2013-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

275

Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Model, scenario and parameter uncertainties contribute. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sequential procedure for quantifying uncertainty is proposed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Application of procedure is illustrated by a case-study. - Abstract: Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.

Clavreul, Julie, E-mail: julc@env.dtu.dk [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark); Guyonnet, Dominique [BRGM, ENAG BRGM-School, BP 6009, 3 Avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orleans Cedex (France); Christensen, Thomas H. [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark)

2012-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

276

Uncertainty analysis of the SWEPP PAN assay system for glass waste (content codes 440, 441 and 442)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

INEL is being used as a temporary storage facility for transuranic waste generated by the Nuclear Weapons program at the Rocky Flats Plant. Currently, there is a large effort in progress to prepare to ship this waste to WIPP. In order to meet the TRU Waste Characterization Quality Assurance Program Plan nondestructive assay compliance requirements and quality assurance objectives, it is necessary to determine the total uncertainty of the radioassay results produced by the Stored Waste Examination Pilot Plant (SWEPP) Passive Action Neutron (PAN) radioassay system. This paper discusses a modified statistical sampling and verification approach used to determine the total uncertainty of SWEPP PAN measurements for glass waste (content codes 440, 441, and 442) contained in 208 liter drums. In the modified statistical sampling and verification approach, the total performance of the SWEPP PAN nondestructive assay system for specifically selected waste conditions is simulated using computer models. A set of 100 cases covering the known conditions exhibited in glass waste was compiled using a combined statistical sampling and factorial experimental design approach. Parameter values assigned in each simulation were derived from reviews of approximately 100 real-time radiography video tapes of RFP glass waste drums, results from previous SWEPP PAN measurements on glass waste drums, and shipping data from RFP where the glass waste was generated. The data in the 100 selected cases form the multi-parameter input to the simulation model. The reported plutonium masses from the simulation model are compared with corresponding input masses. From these comparisons, the bias and total uncertainty associated with SWEPP PAN measurements on glass waste drums are estimated. The validity of the simulation approach is verified by comparing simulated output against results from calibration measurements using known plutonium sources and two glass waste calibration drums.

Blackwood, L.G.; Harker, Y.D.; Meachum, T.R.; Yoon, W.Y.

1996-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

277

Edgeworth Price Cycles, Cost-based Pricing and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline Markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Johnson. “Gas Wars: Retail Gasoline Price Fluctua- tions”,were collected on retail gasoline prices, wholesale (rack)ancillary information. Retail gasoline prices, RET AIL mt ,

Noel, Michael

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

278

Analysis of road pricing, metering and the priority treatment of high occupancy vehicles using system dynamics. Master's thesis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Transportation Systems Management (TSM) employs various techniques such as road pricing, metering and the priority treatment of high occupancy vehicles (HOVs) in an effort to make more efficient use of existing transportation facilities. Efficiency is improved in terms of moving more people through the facility while simultaneously reducing the number of vehicles using the facility. This report uses a hypothetical toll facility and examines four computer modeling approaches to determine which of the approaches are valid in terms of predicting the behavior of trip makers seeking to use the facility in response to various combinations of TSM techniques. Once an approach has been determined to be valid, seven different combination of TSM techniques, or strategies, are compared to a base strategy to determine what strategy or strategies are most affective in achieving the goals of TSM.

Castillo, W.

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

COORDINATING ON LOWER PRICES: PHARMACEUTICAL PRICING  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of political activity on pharmaceutical prices, focusing on the health care reform period. We characterize health care reform discussions in 1993, large-scale efforts to curb drug prices were debated and seemed everywhere from the Catastrophic Health Insurance Bill to proposals for Medicare coverage of drugs. During

Sadoulet, Elisabeth

280

The Minimum Price Contract  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A minimum price contract is one of many tools a marketer may use to better manage price and production risk while trying to achieve financial goals and objectives. This publication discusses the advantages and disadvantages involved...

Waller, Mark L.; Amosson, Stephen H.; Welch, Mark; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.

2008-10-17T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Associates, citing NYMEX natural gas bid-offer spreadAnalysis of the Market for Natural Gas Futures. ” The Energyas a Physical Hedge Against Natural Gas Price Movements. ”

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

282

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 [1] and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository [2]. This presentation provides an overview of the conceptual and computational structure of the indicated PA (hereafter referred to as the 2008 YM PA) and the roles that uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis play in this structure.

Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Utility spot pricing study : Wisconsin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Spot pricing covers a range of electric utility pricing structures which relate the marginal costs of electric generation to the prices seen by utility customers. At the shortest time frames prices change every five ...

Caramanis, Michael C.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Grid Pricing of Fed Cattle  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

There are several value-based fed cattle pricing systems, including formula pricing, price grids and alliances. This publication describes the different cattle pricing methods and helps you decide which is best for you....

Schroeder, Ted C.; Hogan, Robert J.; Anderson, David P.

2009-03-02T23:59:59.000Z

285

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

RETAIL PRICES CONTENTS Page Tuna, Canned White Meat Tuna. (Albacore), Solid Pack, In Oil All BrandsCANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE BUREAU PRICES APRIL 1959 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch of Market Development FISHERY

286

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

PRICES CONTENTS Page Tuna, Canned White Meat Tuna (Albacore), Solid Pack, In Oil All Brands ExceptCANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES JUNE ll959 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDUFE, Commissioner CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES JUNE 1959 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch

287

STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director

288

Contractual form, retail price and asset characteristics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Predictions derived from a principal-agent analysis of the manufacturer-retailer relationship are derived and tested using microdata on contractual form, outlet characteristics and retail prices for gasoline stations in ...

Shepard, Andrea

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

289

Reconciling Real Option Models: An Approach to Incorporate Market and Private Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Several real options analysis techniques designed for practitioners exist in literature, but there is discrepancy in their underlying assumptions, mechanics and applicability. Within this paper, a review of approaches targeted towards practitioners is included, and a novel way of integrating market and private uncertainties is proposed. Market risk is incorporated into the dynamics of the project cash flow by assuming the success of the project is correlated to a traded index. The value of the real option on the project cash flows may be priced by traditional numerical methods or a simulation approach similar to the previously recommended Datar-Mathews method (Datar et al., 2007). A numerical example presents the proposed model within the simulation framework. Keywords: Real options for practitioners, valuation under uncertainty, DM Method, correlated processes 1

Kelsey Barton; Yuri Lawryshyn

290

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project.

Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

1993-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

291

Strategic investment in power generation under uncertainty : Electric Reliability Council of Texas  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The purpose of this study is to develop a strategy for investment in power generation technologies in the future given the uncertainties in climate policy and fuel prices. First, such studies are commonly conducted using ...

Chiyangwa, Diana Kudakwashe

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

292

Residential implementation of critical-peak pricing of electricity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

L.R. Modeling alternative residential peak-load electricitydemand response to residential critical peak pricing (CPP)analysis of California residential customer response to

Herter, Karen

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Edgeworth Price Cycles: Evidence from the Toronto Retail Gasoline Market  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Robbery, An Analysis of the Gasoline Crisis”, Bloomington:Dynamic Pricing in Retail gasoline Markets”, RAND Journal ofR. Gilbert. “Do Gasoline Markets Respond Asymmetrically to

Noel, Michael

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

294

Optimization Online - Convex Hull Pricing in Electricity Markets ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Mar 19, 2015 ... Convex Hull Pricing in Electricity Markets: Formulation, Analysis, and Implementation Challenges. Dane Schiro (dschiro ***at*** iso-ne.com)

Dane Schiro

2015-03-19T23:59:59.000Z

295

SIMULATION MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE MOST PROMISING GEOLOGIC SEQUESTRATION FORMATION CANDIDATES IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION, USA, WITH FOCUS ON UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The purpose of this report is to report results of reservoir model simulation analyses for forecasting subsurface CO2 storage capacity estimation for the most promising formations in the Rocky Mountain region of the USA. A particular emphasis of this project was to assess uncertainty of the simulation-based forecasts. Results illustrate how local-scale data, including well information, number of wells, and location of wells, affect storage capacity estimates and what degree of well density (number of wells over a fixed area) may be required to estimate capacity within a specified degree of confidence. A major outcome of this work was development of a new workflow of simulation analysis, accommodating the addition of “random pseudo wells” to represent virtual characterization wells.

Lee, Si-Yong; Zaluski, Wade; Will, Robert; Eisinger, Chris; Matthews, Vince; McPherson, Brian

2013-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

296

Planning for future uncertainties in electric power generation : an analysis of transitional strategies for reduction of carbon and sulfur emissions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The object of this paper is to identify strategies for the U.S. electric utility industry for reduction of both acid rain producing and global warming gases. The research used the EPRI Electric Generation Expansion Analysis ...

Tabors, Richard D.

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, CHEN, DENG AND HUO. 1 Electricity Price Curve Modeling by Manifold  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

markets. Index Terms-- Electricity spot price, locational marginal price, electricity forward curveIEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, CHEN, DENG AND HUO. 1 Electricity Price Curve Modeling and prediction of electricity price curves by applying the manifold learning methodology. Cluster analysis based

298

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 23, NO. 3, AUGUST 2008 877 Electricity Price Curve Modeling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

--Electricity forward curve, electricity spot price, forecasting, locational marginal price, manifold learning. IIEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 23, NO. 3, AUGUST 2008 877 Electricity Price Curve approach for the modeling and analysis of electricity price curves by ap- plying the manifold learning

Huo, Xiaoming

299

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis-2014 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis-2014 Handbook describes the...

300

Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil Production Outlook 1April95 1

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Microsoft Word - feb10-Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecember 2005 (Thousand9,0,InformationU.S. Crude Oil3 13, 19982,

302

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

OECD Employment and Labour Market Statistics (database).OECD’s Employment and Labour Market Statistics (2011). Only

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

Mccomiskey, Allison

304

INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY INTO DAM SAFETY RISK Sanjay S. Chauhan1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Reclamation are using risk assessment as a decision support tool. This paper summarizes an approach to incorporating input uncertainties into risk analysis model. Input uncertainties are captured by using for uncertainty analysis in dam safety risk assessment, and demonstrates some useful formats for presenting

Chauhan, Sanjay S.

305

Equilibrium pricing bounds on option prices Marie Chazala  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

probability measure that is equivalent to the historical one, and under which the discounted price processesEquilibrium pricing bounds on option prices Marie Chazala and Ely`es Jouinib a CREST, France price at maturity, we derive an upper bound on the call option price by putting two kind of restrictions

Boyer, Edmond

306

Price changes in the gasoline market: Are Midwestern gasoline prices downward sticky?  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets: why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices when they`re rising? This question is more complex than it might appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts in government, academia and industry. The question is very important, because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used in arguments for government regulation of prices. The phenomenon of prices at different market levels tending to move differently relative to each other depending on direction is known as price asymmetry. This report summarizes the previous work on gasoline price asymmetry and provides a method for testing for asymmetry in a wide variety of situations. The major finding of this paper is that there is some amount of asymmetry and pattern asymmetry, especially at the retail level, in the Midwestern states that are the focus of the analysis. Nevertheless, both the amount asymmetry and pattern asymmetry are relatively small. In addition, much of the pattern asymmetry detected in this and previous studies could be a statistical artifact caused by the time lags between price changes at different points in the gasoline distribution system. In other words, retail gasoline prices do sometimes rise faster than they fall, but this is largely a lagged market response to an upward shock in the underlying wholesale gasoline or crude oil prices, followed by a return toward the previous baseline. After consistent time lags are factored out, most apparent asymmetry disappears.

NONE

1999-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.

Siddiqui, Afzal S.

2003-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Retrospective Evaluation of Appliance Price Trends  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the higher the product cost and retail price. Table 3.change and appliance price Room air conditioners Small (price data to clarify price

Dale, Larry

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

309

Crude Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

the acquisition date. See the Explanatory Notes section for additional detail. Sources: Energy Information Administration, Form FEA-F701-M-0, "Transfer Pricing Report," January...

310

Livestock Seasonal Price Variation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

that number by the index of the future month for which the price forecast is being determined. For example, if June Amarillo direct fed cattle prices averaged $64 per hun- dredweight (cwt.), the forecast for October would be $64 divided by 97.12, multiplied... by 99.04 = $65.27 per cwt. Adjusting for the vari- ability suggests that there is a 68 percent proba- bility that the October monthly average price would fall between $70.67 cwt. and $59.87 cwt. Seasonal Price Index for Amarillo Direct Fed Steers...

Davis, Ernest E.; Sartwelle III, James D.; Mintert, James R.

1999-09-21T23:59:59.000Z

311

,"Colorado Natural Gas Prices"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Name","Description"," Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","Colorado Natural Gas Prices",8,"Monthly","112014","1151989" ,"Release Date:","1302015"...

312

The Real Effects of Political Uncertainty: Elections, Information Flow, and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, inflation, variation of GDP growth, variation of inflation Intl: property rights protection, rule of law.340 international sample diff = 0.408 Result The link between investment and stock prices is even weaker whenThe Real Effects of Political Uncertainty: Elections, Information Flow, and Investment Efficiency

Lin, Xiaodong

313

Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems A. Bargiela Department. There are system management decisions concerning the regulatory measures such as water pricing principles, effluent in water distribution systems con- cern reservoir(s) management with associated pump scheduling

Bargiela, Andrzej

314

E-Print Network 3.0 - assessing spatial uncertainty Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Uncertainty analysis assesses... in evaluating alternatives. Concern about uncertainty in spatial data and analyses is not new, but systematic... A thorough understanding of...

315

CCPExecutiveSummary Collusive Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CCPExecutiveSummary September 2011 Collusive Price Rigidity under Price-Matching Punishments W: www.uea.ac.uk/ccp T: +44 (0)1603 593715 A: UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ Collusive Price Rigidity under Price and price rigidity are linked. This belief is formalised in the theory of the kinked demand curve

Feigon, Brooke

316

Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

2012-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

317

Literature Review of Uncertainty of Analysis Methods (Inverse Model Toolkit), Report to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the Energy Systems Laboratory or any of its employees. The views and opinions of authors expressed...-weekend Whole-building Analysis (3P Model) for Steam Use (kBtu/day, R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 50,085.95, CV(RMSE) = 37.1%). Weekday use (x), weekend use ( )(Haberl and Culp, 2004).................................... 28 Page 6 October 2004 Energy Systems...

Haberl, J. S.; Cho, S.

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Pricing to Accelerate Demand Learning in Dynamic Assortment ...  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

are made. In practice, a substantial amount of uncertainty about the demand process is ... sales. Note that there is full information about price-response function and, as a result, the .... To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to consider ...

2013-03-16T23:59:59.000Z

319

RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

2010-06-17T23:59:59.000Z

320

Carbon capture retrofits and the cost of regulatory uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Power generation firms confront impending replacement of an aging coal-fired fleet in a business environment characterized by volatile natural gas prices and uncertain carbon regulation. We develop a stochastic dynamic programming model of firm investment decisions that minimizes the expected present value of future power generation costs under uncertain natural gas and carbon prices. We explore the implications of regulatory uncertainty on generation technology choice and the optimal timing of investment, and assess the implications of these choices for regulators. We find that interaction of regulatory uncertainty with irreversible investment always raises the social cost of carbon abatement. Further, the social cost of regulatory uncertainty is strongly dependent on the relative competitiveness of IGCC plants, for which the cost of later carbon capture retrofits is comparatively small, and on the firm's ability to use investments in natural gas generation as a transitional strategy to manage carbon regulation uncertainty. Without highly competitive IGCC or low gas prices, regulatory uncertainty can increase the expected social cost of reducing emissions by 40 to 60%.

Reinelt, P.S.; Keith, D.W. [SUNY College of Fredonia, Fredonia, NY (United States). Dept. of Economics

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Energy Prices and California's Economic  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 Energy Prices and California's Economic Security David RolandHolst October, 2009 on Energy Prices, Renewables, Efficiency, and Economic Growth: Scenarios and Forecasts, financial support drivers, the course of fossil fuel energy prices, energy efficiency trends, and renewable energy

Sadoulet, Elisabeth

322

Utility spot pricing, California  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The objective of the present spot pricing study carried out for SCE and PG&E is to develop the concepts which wculd lead to an experimental design for spot pricing in the two utilities. The report suggests a set of experiments ...

Schweppe, Fred C.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

324

Gasoline price data systems  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Timely observation on prices of gasoline at the wholesale and retail level by geographical area can serve several purposes: (1) to facilitate the monitoring of compliance with controls on distributor margins; (2) to indicate changes in the competitive structure of the distribution system; (3) to measure the incidence of changes in crude oil and refiner costs on retail prices by grade of gasoline, by type of retail outlet, and by geographic area; (4) to identify anomalies in the retail pricing structure that may create incentives for misfueling; and (5) to provide detailed time series data for use in evaluating conservation response to price changes. In order to provide the needed data for these purposes, the following detail on gasoline prices and characteristics of the sampling procedure appear to be appropriate: (1) monthly sample observations on wholesale and retail prices by gasoline grade and type of wholesale or retail dealer, together with volume weights; (2) sample size sufficient to provide detail by state and large cities; (3) responses to be tabulated and reports provided within 30 days after date of observation; and (4) a quick response sampling procedure that can provide weekly data, at least at the national level, when needed in time of rapidly changing prices. Price detail by state is suggested due to its significance for administrative purposes and since gasoline consumption data are estimated by state from other sources. Price detail for large cities are suggested in view of their relevancy as problem areas for vehicle emissions, reflecting one of the analytical uses of the data. In this report, current reporting systems and data on gasoline prices are reviewed and evaluated in terms of the needs outlined above. Recommendations are made for ways to fill the gaps in existing data systems to meet these needs.

Not Available

1980-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS AND ITS POTENTIAL  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Vidaver Electricity Analysis Office Electricity Supply Analysis Division California Energy Commission ............................................................................................................................. 5 Gas Price Risk.................................................................................................................................. 9 Discount Rates ­ The Present Cost of Future Gas Prices

326

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a… (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Investment Timing and Capacity Choice for Small-Scale Wind PowerUnder Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents a method for evaluation of investments in small-scale wind power under uncertainty. It is assumed that the price of electricity is uncertain and that an owner of a property with wind resources has a deferrable opportunity to invest in one wind power turbine within a capacity range. The model evaluates investment in a set of projects with different capacity. It is assumed that the owner substitutes own electricity load with electricity from the wind mill and sells excess electricity back to the grid on an hourly basis. The problem for the owner is to find the price levels at which it is optimal to invest, and in which capacity to invest. The results suggests it is optimal to wait for significantly higher prices than the net present value break-even. Optimal scale and timing depend on the expected price growth rate and the uncertainty in the future prices.

Fleten, Stein-Erik; Maribu, Karl Magnus

2004-11-28T23:59:59.000Z

328

CCPExecutiveSummary Price low and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CCPExecutiveSummary July 2010 Price low and then price high W: www.uea.ac.uk/ccp T: +44 (0)1603 593715 A: UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ Price low and then price high or price high and then price low introductory price for a new product followed by a higher price. For example, if at least some consumers face

Feigon, Brooke

329

Multi-Factor Energy Price Models Exotic Derivatives Pricing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Multi-Factor Energy Price Models and Exotic Derivatives Pricing by Samuel Hikspoors A thesis of Statistics University of Toronto c Copyright by Samuel Hikspoors 2008 #12;Multi-Factor Energy Price Models and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing

Jaimungal, Sebastian

330

Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use A Review of Empirical Findings Hongwei Dong, Ph.D. Candidate John D. Hunt, Professor John Gliebe, Assistant Professor #12;Framework Oil-run Short and Long-run #12;Topics covered by this presentation: Oil price and macro-economy Gas price

Bertini, Robert L.

331

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

332

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

333

A Framework for Analysis of the Uncertainty of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change on the Risk of Water Stress: a Case Study in Asia  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in how these factors change in the future is the uncertainty of ...

Fant, C.

334

The ethics of dynamic pricing  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Dynamic pricing has garnered much interest among regulators and utilities, since it has the potential for lowering energy costs for society. But the deployment of dynamic pricing has been remarkably tepid. The underlying premise is that dynamic pricing is unfair. But the presumption of unfairness in dynamic pricing rests on an assumption of fairness in today's tariffs. (author)

Faruqui, Ahmad

2010-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

335

CANNED FI H RETAIL PRICE  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CANNED FI H RETAIL PRICE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE I TERI R FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE BUREAU to obtain average retail prices for selected canned fish items. The retail prices as contained herein by the U. S . Department of Labor in order to provide information on price levels in different cities

336

Programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Accurate estimates of the volumes of contaminated soils or sediments are critical to effective program planning and to successfully designing and implementing remedial actions. Unfortunately, data available to support the pre-remedial design are often sparse and insufficient for accurately estimating contaminated soil volumes, resulting in significant uncertainty associated with these volume estimates. The uncertainty in the soil volume estimates significantly contributes to the uncertainty in the overall project cost estimates, especially since excavation and off-site disposal are the primary cost items in soil remedial action projects. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District's experience has been that historical contaminated soil volume estimates developed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) often underestimated the actual volume of subsurface contaminated soils requiring excavation during the course of a remedial activity. In response, the Buffalo District has adopted a variety of programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties. These include developing final status survey protocols prior to remedial design, explicitly estimating the uncertainty associated with volume estimates, investing in pre-design data collection to reduce volume uncertainties, and incorporating dynamic work strategies and real-time analytics in pre-design characterization and remediation activities. This paper describes some of these experiences in greater detail, drawing from the knowledge gained at Ashland 1, Ashland 2, Linde, and Rattlesnake Creek. In the case of Rattlesnake Creek, these approaches provided the Buffalo District with an accurate pre-design contaminated volume estimate and resulted in one of the first successful FUSRAP fixed-price remediation contracts for the Buffalo District. (authors)

Rieman, C.R.; Spector, H.L. [U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District, Buffalo, NY (United States); Durham, L.A.; Johnson, R.L. [Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Science Div., IL (United States)

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

337

Sandia National Laboratories: Uncertainty Analysis  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

(NESL) Brayton Lab SCO2 Brayton Cycle Technology Videos Heat Exchanger Development Diffusion Bonding Characterization Mechanical Testing Deep Borehole Disposal Nuclear...

338

Sandia National Laboratories: Uncertainty Analysis  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -theErikGroundbreakingStandardsTCESJBEI ResearchersTrough CoastUASUNMUSBR Final

339

Use the Acceptable Crop Price worksheet to determine breakeven prices for your crops. ACCEPTABLE PRICE WORKSHEET  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Use the Acceptable Crop Price worksheet to determine breakeven prices for your crops. ACCEPTABLE PRICE WORKSHEET Prepared by: David Bau - Regional Extension Educator, Agricultural Business Management (August 2012) CROP INCOME EXAMPLE YOUR FARM EXAMPLE YOUR FARM (A) Crop Acres 400 400 176 46 (C) Price

Netoff, Theoden

340

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Metabolic paths in world economy and crude oil price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In 1983 Hamilton demonstrated the correlation between the price of oil and gross national product for the U.S. economy. A prolific literature followed exploring the potential correlation of oil prices with other important indices like inflation, industrial production, and food prices, using increasingly refined tools. Our work sheds new light on the role of oil prices in shaping the world economy by investigating the metabolic paths of value across trade between 1960 and 2010, by means of Markov Chain analysis. We show that the interdependence of countries' economies are strictly (anti)correlated to the price of oil. We observed a remarkably high correlation of 0.85, unmatched by any former study addressing the correlation between oil price and major economic indicators.

Picciolo, Francesco; Ruzzenenti, Franco

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

The carbon component of the UK power price  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

CO{sub 2} emissions trading is in full swing in Europe and is already having an impact on the price of power in the UK. If EU allowances (EUAs) trade at euro 20/t-CO{sub 2}, the EUA component in the power price is estimated to be slightly < euro 10/MW.h. In the case of UK power for delivery 1 year ahead, this is {approximately} 10% of the market price of power. The introduction of a carbon components into the UK power prices took place along before the 'official' start of ETS in 2005. Analysis of historical data of the price of power, gas, coal and EUAs shows that the first trace of a CO{sub 2} component in UK power dates back to August 2003, shortly after EUAs first started to trade. In April 2004, CO{sub 2} was fully integrated into the UK power price. 4 refs., 5 figs.

Kris Voorspools [Fortis (Belgium). Energy and Environmental Markets

2006-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

select h.*, p.Price as Price, NestXML(p.PricingConditions,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

select h.*, p.Price as Price, NestXML(p.PricingConditions, p.PNGImage) as AdditionalData from Hyper Passau, Germany New Supplier Market Place select p.ProductDescription, c.Supplier, c.AdditionalData, c.Price by p.ProductDescription, c.Price expires Friday, March 29, 2002 5:00:00 PM CET Register Products XML

Kemper, Alfons

344

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

345

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2008-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

346

Fewer Prices than Zones Steven Stoft  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of the FERC or of its Office of Economic Policy. Nodal energy spot prices induce a least-cost dispatch are priced explicitly instead of implicitly through nodal energy price differences. Pricing transmission energy spot market. Even including the hub price, there are fewer CP+Hub prices than zonal prices

California at Berkeley. University of

347

Trajectories without quantum uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A common knowledge suggests that trajectories of particles in quantum mechanics always have quantum uncertainties. These quantum uncertainties set by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle limit precision of measurements of fields and forces, and ultimately give rise to the standard quantum limit in metrology. With the rapid developments of sensitivity of measurements these limits have been approached in various types of measurements including measurements of fields and acceleration. Here we show that a quantum trajectory of one system measured relatively to the other "reference system" with an effective negative mass can be quantum uncertainty--free. The method crucially relies on the generation of an Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen entangled state of two objects, one of which has an effective negative mass. From a practical perspective these ideas open the way towards force and acceleration measurements at new levels of sensitivity far below the standard quantum limit.

Eugene S. Polzik; Klemens Hammerer

2014-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

348

Orifice flow measurement uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A computer program is now available from Union Carbide that evaluates the total flow uncertainty of orifice flowmeter systems. Tolerance values for every component in the system and the sensitivity of the measured flowrate to each component can be established using historical data and published hardware specifications. Knowing the tolerance and sensitivity values, a total measurement uncertainty can be estimated with a 95% confidence level. This computer program provides a powerful design tool to ensure correct component matching and total metering system optimization.

Samples, C.R.

1984-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

MTBE, methanol prices rise  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

After several months of drifting lower in line with declining autumn gasoline prices, tabs for methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) have turned around. There has been no big demand surge, but consumers and traders are beginning to build up inventories in advance of a series of midwinter shutdowns and turnarounds by producers. Spot prices, which dropped as low as 75 cts/gal, have rebounded to 90 cts/gal fob. Eager for a positive glimmer, methanol producers posted a 3-cts/gal increase in contract prices this month. It marks the first upward idea since February. In that time contract prices have dropped 75% from $1.55/gal to 39 cts/gal. A hard winter has hit early in much of the US sending natural gas prices up sharply. At the same time, formaldehyde and acetic acid markets remain firm, and with MTBE rebounding, methanol producers feel entitled to a piece of the action. {open_quotes}I don`t buy into this claim that MTBE demand is up and I don`t think producers can justify even a 3-cts/gal increase,{close_quotes} says one. {open_quotes}There is nothing in the economy to warrant a run-up. Housing starts are weaker, and demand is down at least 80,000 bbl/day with the MTBE shutdown.{close_quotes}

Morris, G.D.L.; Cornitius, T.

1995-12-20T23:59:59.000Z

350

Fact #766: February 11, 2013 Electricity Prices are More Stable...  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

6: February 11, 2013 Electricity Prices are More Stable than Gasoline Prices Fact 766: February 11, 2013 Electricity Prices are More Stable than Gasoline Prices All energy prices...

351

Oil Prices and Terms of Trade.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? One of the central issues in international macroeconomics is relative price movements and their sources. One such price is the price of crude oil.… (more)

Mirfacihi, Azar

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

352

Fairness and dynamic pricing: comments  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In ''The Ethics of Dynamic Pricing,'' Ahmad Faruqui lays out a case for improved efficiency in using dynamic prices for retail electricity tariffs and addresses various issues about the distributional effects of alternative pricing mechanisms. The principal contrast is between flat or nearly constant energy prices and time-varying prices that reflect more closely the marginal costs of energy and capacity. The related issues of fairness criteria, contracts, risk allocation, cost allocation, means testing, real-time pricing, and ethical policies of electricity market design also must be considered. (author)

Hogan, William W.

2010-07-15T23:59:59.000Z

353

Texas Farm Commodity Prices.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the base price of 12.4 cents or 31.12 cents a pound. The parity price for wheat was 2.51 times 88.4 cents or $2.22 per bushel. The parity price of potatoes, however, which is calculated from the base August 1919-July 1929, was 1.66 times $1.12 a bushel....90 1.88 1.86 1.78 1.40 1.08 1.12 1920 0 24 1 36 1 44 1.51 1.62 1.70 1.62 1.42 1.15 .94 .86 1921 80 :86 :88 85 84 82 77 64 51 49 52 1922 .51 .58 .66 .68 .72 .72 .72 .74 .71 .72 .79 1923 .92 .95 1.00 1.04 1.04 1.06 1.03 .98 .98 1.01 1.00 1924 1...

Childs, V. C. (Virgil C.); Schlotzhauer, Elbert O.; McNeely, John G.

1948-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

A pricing problem under Monge property  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

buyers have to be served and show that the pricing problem still admits a dynamic programming. algorithm if ... An early reference for an optimization application of this property dates back to 1781 when the ..... Personal communication, 2003. ... Heuristics For Product-Line Design Using Conjoint Analysis, Management.

355

Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

ALVIN,KENNETH F.; OBERKAMPF,WILLIAM L.; RUTHERFORD,BRIAN M.; DIEGERT,KATHLEEN V.

2000-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Residential propane prices increase  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane prices increasepropane prices

357

Diesel prices decrease  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDiesel prices continueDiesel prices

358

Diesel prices decrease  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDiesel pricesDiesel prices decrease

359

Diesel prices decrease  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDiesel pricesDiesel prices

360

Diesel prices flat  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDieseldiesel pricesDiesel prices

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Is There Evidence of Super Cycles in Oil Prices?* Abdel M. Zellou and John T. Cuddington**  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Is There Evidence of Super Cycles in Oil Prices?* Abdel M. Zellou and John T. Cuddington** March 22: is there evidence of super cycles in crude oil prices? On one hand, one might expect the strong demand associated analysis suggests that there is strong evidence of super cycles in oil prices in the post-WWII period

362

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2009-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

363

Convergence Speed of GARCH Option Price to Diffusion Option Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Convergence Speed of GARCH Option Price to Diffusion Option Price Jin-Chuan Duan, Yazhen Wang that as the time interval between two consecutive observations shrinks to zero, a properly constructed GARCH model will weakly converge to a bivariate diffusion. Naturally the European option price under the GARCH model

Chaudhuri, Sanjay

364

Convergence Speed of GARCH Option Price to Diffusion Option Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Convergence Speed of GARCH Option Price to Diffusion Option Price Jin-Chuan Duan National constructed GARCH model will weakly converge to a bi- variate diffusion. Naturally the European option price under the GARCH model will also converge to its bivariate diffusion counterpart. This paper investigates

Wang, Yazhen

365

Low prices harpoon Canada's mini-boom  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The authors present an analysis of the year 1988 in the Canadian oil and gas industry. With budgets underpinned by price expectations of $17/bbl to $18/bbl for WTI crude, optimism pervaded industry at the beginning of the year. Budget plans called for total spending of some C$7.6 billion, an increase of 25% over the C$6.1 invested in 1987. Drilling plans would have made 1988 the fourth best year on record with total well completions close to the 9,000-well mark. The year started strongly, as prices performed close to expectations. When prices began to soften and no reversal was apparent, corporate expenditures began to be adjusted in the second half.

Maciej, H. (Canadian Petroleum Association, Calgary, Alta (CA))

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

366

E-Print Network 3.0 - analysis including quantification Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

design couples sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification methods... reduction through verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification Computational...

367

Best Buys and Unit Pricing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This guide explains how to determine a unit price--the cost of an item based on a specific unit such as pound or ounce. Unit pricing can be used to identify foods that are the most economical....

Anding, Jenna

2000-02-02T23:59:59.000Z

368

Rethinking Real Time Electricity Pricing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Most US consumers are charged a near-constant retail price for electricity, despite substantial hourly variation in the wholesale market price. This paper evaluates the .rst program to expose residential consumers to hourly ...

Allcott, Hunt

369

Price forecasting for notebook computers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

370

Ris-R-1344(EN) Assessment of Uncertainties in Risk  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Risø-R-1344(EN) Assessment of Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments of Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments The ASSURANCE project Final summary report Kurt risk analyses for the same chemical facility, an ammonia storage. The EC's Joint Research Centre

371

National Laboratory Dorene Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

: price@bnl.gov ELECTROCHEMICAL ENHANCEMENT OF BIO-ETHANOL AND METABOLITE PRODUCTION Brookhaven National as a manufacturing step in their process to produce bio-ethanol or other commercially used metabolites can implement ApplicationFiled 61/042,867 TECHNOLOGY This method accelerates the production of ethanol and other metabolites

372

National Laboratory Dorene Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

applications from a broader perspective as well as in a narrower perspective, the hydrogen fuel cell industry alanates doped with such metal catalysts. Hydrogen is one part of a balanced, strategic portfolio of energy: price@bnl.gov ACTIVATED ALUMINUM HYDRIDE HYDROGEN STORAGE COMPOSITIONS AND USES THEREOF Brookhaven

373

Evidence of randomness in United States spot oil prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study investigates U.S. crude oil spot-market prices to determine if they were cyclical, autoregressive, or random in nature. The fact that oil-price volatility emerged only with the rise of spot markets meant that data for this type of an analysis were not previously available. The hypothesis tested was that U.S. crude oil price changes are neither cyclical nor autocorrelated, and are, therefore, random. Daily data on U.S. crude oil spot market prices (for the period of December 3, 1984 to November 4, 1988) were analyzed using spectral analysis; this converts time-series data into a frequency series, where it can be analyzed using more-powerful statistical methods. The spectral results of the price series gave a maximum power spectrum of 0.026, which is considerably smaller than the significance level of 0.052, considered acceptable using a 99% confidence level. The conclusion reached was that there was no significant cyclicality or autocorrelation in the data. This indicated that the U.S. crude oil prices are efficient, and that it would not be possible to predict crude oil price changes by using historical price data, seasonality, or business cycles.

Howard, B.W.

1989-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

374

Technique for estimating jet fuel prices from energy futures market  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report presents a statistical analysis of future prices of petroleum products for use in predicting the monthly average retail price of kerosene-type jet fuel. The method of least squares was employed to examine the relationship between kerosene-type jet fuel retail prices and energy futures prices. Regression equations were constructed for four of the petroleum commodities traded on the energy futures market: heating oil No. 2, leaded regular gasoline, crude oil, and unleaded gasoline. Thirty-nine regression equations were estimated by the method of least squares to relate the cash price of kerosene-type jet fuel to the futures prices of the above four petroleum commodities for contract periods of 1 to 12 months. The analysis revealed that 19 of the 39 first-order linear regression equations provided a good fit to the data. Specifically, heating oil No. 2 performed better than the order energy futures in predicting the price of kerosene-type jet fuel. The only information required to use these regression equations are energy futures prices which are available daily from the Wall Street Journal. 5 refs., 4 tabs.

Vineyard, T.A.

1988-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

375

Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised electricity market, looking at the impact of the seven key variables and provide conclusions on the portfolio that a utility would be advised to maintain, given the need to limit risks but also to move to low carbon power generation. Such portfolio diversification would not only limit financial investor risk, but also a number of non-financial risks (climate change, security of supply, accidents). (authors)

Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 12, boulevard des Iles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

China, India demand cushions prices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Despite the hopes of coal consumers, coal prices did not plummet in 2006 as demand stayed firm. China and India's growing economies, coupled with solid supply-demand fundamentals in North America and Europe, and highly volatile prices for alternatives are likely to keep physical coal prices from wide swings in the coming year.

Boyle, M.

2006-11-15T23:59:59.000Z

377

CCPPolicyBriefing Resale Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CCPPolicyBriefing Sept 2010 Resale Price Maintenance W: www.uea.ac.uk/ccp T: +44 (0)1603 593715 A: UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ Resale Price Maintenance and Restrictions on Dominant Firm and Industry-Wide Adoption BACKGROUND In June 2007, the nearly 100-year-old ban on retail price maintenance was overturned

Feigon, Brooke

378

Risk Price Dynamics Jaroslav Borovicka  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Risk Price Dynamics Jaroslav Borovicka University of Chicago Lars Peter Hansen University November 11, 2009 Abstract We present a novel approach to depicting asset pricing dynamics by characterizing shock exposures and prices for alternative investment horizons. We quantify the shock exposures

Hansen, Lars Peter

379

Modeling intraurban price competition: an example of gasoline pricing  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Three interacting market models are considered as models for intraurban retail price variation for a single homogenous good, price-posted gasoline. Modifications include spatial markets instead of interacting economic sectors and supply functions independent of price levels in other markets. The final section discusses the results of fitting one of the models to gasoline data for the city of Sheffield during a period of intensifying price competition in the first quarter of 1982. It is concluded, with respect to gasoline price modeling, both independent and interacting market models exist but at different intraurban scales. 15 references, 1 figure, 1 table.

Haining, R.

1983-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

380

Why did British electricity prices fall after 1998?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In an attempt to reduce high electricity prices in England and Wales the government has reduced concentration among generators and introduced New Electricity Trading Arrangements (NETA). Econometric analysis on monthly ...

Evans, Joanne

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Why did British Electricity Prices Fall after 1998?  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In an attempt to reduce high electricity prices in England and Wales the government has reduced concentration among generators and introduced New Electricity Trading Arrangements (NETA). Econometric analysis on monthly data from April 1996...

Evans, Joanne; Green, Richard J

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

382

Fuel Prices and New Vehicle Fuel Economy in Europe  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper evaluates the effect of fuel prices on new vehicle fuel economy in the eight largest European markets. The analysis spans the years 2002–2007 and uses detailed vehicle registration and specification data to ...

Klier, Thomas

383

An analysis of the uncertainty and bias in DCE-MRI measurements using the spoiled gradient-recalled echo pulse sequence  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Purpose: The pharmacokinetic parameters derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI have been used in more than 100 phase I trials and investigator led studies. A comparison of the absolute values of these quantities requires an estimation of their respective probability distribution function (PDF). The statistical variation of the DCE-MRI measurement is analyzed by considering the fundamental sources of error in the MR signal intensity acquired with the spoiled gradient-echo (SPGR) pulse sequence. Methods: The variance in the SPGR signal intensity arises from quadrature detection and excitation flip angle inconsistency. The noise power was measured in 11 phantoms of contrast agent concentration in the range [0–1] mM (in steps of 0.1 mM) and in onein vivo acquisition of a tumor-bearing mouse. The distribution of the flip angle was determined in a uniform 10 mM CuSO{sub 4} phantom using the spin echo double angle method. The PDF of a wide range of T1 values measured with the varying flip angle (VFA) technique was estimated through numerical simulations of the SPGR equation. The resultant uncertainty in contrast agent concentration was incorporated in the most common model of tracer exchange kinetics and the PDF of the derived pharmacokinetic parameters was studied numerically. Results: The VFA method is an unbiased technique for measuringT1 only in the absence of bias in excitation flip angle. The time-dependent concentration of the contrast agent measured in vivo is within the theoretically predicted uncertainty. The uncertainty in measuring K{sup trans} with SPGR pulse sequences is of the same order, but always higher than, the uncertainty in measuring the pre-injection longitudinal relaxation time (T1{sub 0}). The lowest achievable bias/uncertainty in estimating this parameter is approximately 20%–70% higher than the bias/uncertainty in the measurement of the pre-injection T1 map. The fractional volume parameters derived from the extended Tofts model were found to be extremely sensitive to the variance in signal intensity. The SNR of the pre-injection T1 map indicates the limiting precision with which K{sup trans} can be calculated. Conclusions: Current small-animal imaging systems and pulse sequences robust to motion artifacts have the capacity for reproducible quantitative acquisitions with DCE-MRI. In these circumstances, it is feasible to achieve a level of precision limited only by physiologic variability.

Subashi, Ergys [Center for In Vivo Microscopy, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 and Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States)] [Center for In Vivo Microscopy, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 and Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Choudhury, Kingshuk R. [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States)] [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Johnson, G. Allan, E-mail: gjohnson@duke.edu [Center for In Vivo Microscopy, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Department of Biomedical Engineering, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States); Department of Radiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States)

2014-03-15T23:59:59.000Z

384

Assessment of Summer 1997 motor gasoline price increase  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Gasoline markets in 1996 and 1997 provided several spectacular examples of petroleum market dynamics. The first occurred in spring 1996, when tight markets, following a long winter of high demand, resulted in rising crude oil prices just when gasoline prices exhibit their normal spring rise ahead of the summer driving season. Rising crude oil prices again pushed gasoline prices up at the end of 1996, but a warm winter and growing supplies weakened world crude oil markets, pushing down crude oil and gasoline prices during spring 1997. The 1996 and 1997 spring markets provided good examples of how crude oil prices can move gasoline prices both up and down, regardless of the state of the gasoline market in the United States. Both of these spring events were covered in prior Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports. As the summer of 1997 was coming to a close, consumers experienced yet another surge in gasoline prices. Unlike the previous increase in spring 1996, crude oil was not a factor. The late summer 1997 price increase was brought about by the supply/demand fundamentals in the gasoline markets, rather than the crude oil markets. The nature of the summer 1997 gasoline price increase raised questions regarding production and imports. Given very strong demand in July and August, the seemingly limited supply response required examination. In addition, the price increase that occurred on the West Coast during late summer exhibited behavior different than the increase east of the Rocky Mountains. Thus, the Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 5 region needed additional analysis (Appendix A). This report is a study of this late summer gasoline market and some of the important issues surrounding that event.

NONE

1998-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

385

analysis project evaluating: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating. The oil and gas reserves and production profiles, 5. The production...

386

Delivery and Hedging Delivery ties the futures price to the spot price.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Delivery and Hedging · Delivery ties the futures price to the spot price. · On the delivery date, the settlement price of the futures contract is determined by the spot price. · Hence, when the delivery period is reached, the futures price should be very close to the spot price. · Changes in futures prices usually

Lyuu, Yuh-Dauh

387

Dynamic LMP Response Under Alternative Price-Cap and Price-Sensitive Demand Scenarios  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

test bed, locational marginal prices, demand-bid price sensitivity, supply-offer price caps, learning that are separately settled each day by means of Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP). Under LMP, a separate price the complicated nonlinear effects of demand-bid price sensitivity and supply-offer price caps on Locational

Tesfatsion, Leigh

388

Relationship Between Wind Generation and Balancing Energy Market Prices in ERCOT: 2007-2009  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper attempts to measure the average marginal effects of wind generation on the balancing-energy market price in ERCOT with the help of econometric analysis.

Nicholson, E.; Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

389

The Effects of Price Discrimination on Buyerâs Internal Reference Price and Post-purchase Emotions.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This article examines whether price discrimination affects consumer price perceptions and emotions. Questionnaires involving various purchasing scenarios indicate that all kinds of price discrimination decrease… (more)

Huang, Siang-hua

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

390

Price Discovery in Time and Space: The Course of Condominium Prices in Singapore  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Method for Real Estate Price Index Construction,” Journal ofAutocorrelation in House Prices,” Journal of Real Estate1997), “Quotes, Order Flow, and Price Discovery,” Journal of

Hwang, Min; Quigley, John M.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

391

Stochastic Reduced Basis Methods for Uncertainty Quantification  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Turbine Blades In general, stochastic analysis (using SRBM) of any physical system involves two main steps the variability in the performance of a turbine blade in the presence of uncertainty. These blades operate variability in material properties and boundary condi- tions. Given a numerical solution of the set of SPDEs

Sóbester, András

392

Essays on uncertainty in economics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis consists of four essays about "uncertainty" and how markets deal with it. Uncertainty is about subjective beliefs, and thus it often comes with heterogeneous beliefs that may be present temporarily or even ...

Simsek, Alp

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Understanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices Over the Past Decade  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Taking a bottom-up approach, this report examines seven primary drivers of wind turbine prices in the United States, with the goal of estimating the degree to which each contributed to the doubling in turbine prices from 2002 through 2008, as well as the subsequent decline in prices through 2010 (our analysis does not extend into 2011 because several of these drivers are best gauged on a full-year basis due to seasonality issues). The first four of these drivers can be considered, at least to some degree, endogenous influences – i.e., those that are largely within the control of the wind industry – and include changes in: 1) Labor costs, which have historically risen during times of tight turbine supply; 2) Warranty provisions, which reflect technology performance and reliability, and are most often capitalized in turbine prices; 3) Turbine manufacturer profitability, which can impact turbine prices independently of costs; and 4) Turbine design, which for the purpose of this analysis is principally manifested through increased turbine size. The other three drivers analyzed in this study can be considered exogenous influences, in that they can impact wind turbine costs but fall mostly outside of the direct control of the wind industry. These exogenous drivers include changes in: 5) Raw materials prices, which affect the cost of inputs to the manufacturing process; 6) Energy prices, which impact the cost of manufacturing and transporting turbines; and 7) Foreign exchange rates, which can impact the dollar amount paid for turbines and components imported into the United States.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2011-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

394

Joint pricing and inventory control under reference price effects.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??In many firms the pricing and inventory control functions are separated. However, a number of theoretical models suggest a joint determination of inventory levels and… (more)

Gimpl-Heersink, Lisa

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Impact of price specials on estimates of retail meat prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ighting Technique V. V. SUM'JARA' AND CONCLUSIONS. 46 55 o3 69 Ti. me-of-the-Week to Collect Prices. Bias Reduced by Regression. Concluding Statement. REFEBENCES. APPENDIX. 89 90 95 100 115 vill LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1-1. Relative...' or individual items in Dallas and Houston. 101 3-1. Simulated BLS price estimates of 46 meat items based upon different sampling rates and weighted average price, or all data, July 1968. . . . . . . . . . . . 107 "Error" of price estimates; differences...

Degner, Robert L

1970-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

396

Essays on Automotive Lending, Gasoline Prices, & Automotive Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Gasoline PriceResponse to Chang- ing Gasoline Prices,” unpublishedShort-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand. ,” The Energy

Schulz-Mahlendorf, Wilko Ziggy

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access Uncertainty-aware visualization and proximity  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-aware, geospatial-AR system for real time visualization and proximity analysis. Uncertainties are modeled excavation: a geospatial augmented reality approach Xing Su1 , Sanat Talmaki2 , Hubo Cai3* and Vineet R Kamat an uncertainty-aware, geospatial augmented reality (AR) to visualize and monitor the proximity between invisible

Kamat, Vineet R.

398

Evaluation of the Repeatability of the Delta Q Duct Leakage Testing TechniqueIncluding Investigation of Robust Analysis Techniques and Estimates of Weather Induced Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DeltaQ test is a method of estimating the air leakage from forced air duct systems. Developed primarily for residential and small commercial applications it uses the changes in blower door test results due to forced air system operation. Previous studies established the principles behind DeltaQ testing, but raised issues of precision of the test, particularly for leaky homes on windy days. Details of the measurement technique are available in an ASTM Standard (ASTM E1554-2007). In order to ease adoption of the test method, this study answers questions regarding the uncertainty due to changing weather during the test (particularly changes in wind speed) and the applicability to low leakage systems. The first question arises because the building envelope air flows and pressures used in the DeltaQ test are influenced by weather induced pressures. Variability in wind induced pressures rather than temperature difference induced pressures dominates this effect because the wind pressures change rapidly over the time period of a test. The second question needs to answered so that DeltaQ testing can be used in programs requiring or giving credit for tight ducts (e.g., California's Building Energy Code (CEC 2005)). DeltaQ modeling biases have been previously investigated in laboratory studies where there was no weather induced changes in envelope flows and pressures. Laboratory work by Andrews (2002) and Walker et al. (2004) found biases of about 0.5% of forced air system blower flow and individual test uncertainty of about 2% of forced air system blower flow. The laboratory tests were repeated by Walker and Dickerhoff (2006 and 2008) using a new ramping technique that continuously varied envelope pressures and air flows rather than taking data at pre-selected pressure stations (as used in ASTM E1554-2003 and other previous studies). The biases and individual test uncertainties for ramping were found to be very close (less than 0.5% of air handler flow) to those found in for the pressure station approach. Walker and Dickerhoff also included estimates of DeltaQ test repeatability based on the results of field tests where two houses were tested multiple times. The two houses were quite leaky (20-25 Air Changes per Hour at 50Pa (0.2 in. water) (ACH50)) and were located in the San Francisco Bay area. One house was tested on a calm day and the other on a very windy day. Results were also presented for two additional houses that were tested by other researchers in Minneapolis, MN and Madison, WI, that had very tight envelopes (1.8 and 2.5 ACH50). These tight houses had internal duct systems and were tested without operating the central blower--sometimes referred to as control tests. The standard deviations between the multiple tests for all four houses were found to be about 1% of the envelope air flow at 50 Pa (0.2 in. water) (Q50) that led to the suggestion of this as a rule of thumb for estimating DeltaQ uncertainty. Because DeltaQ is based on measuring envelope air flows it makes sense for uncertainty to scale with envelope leakage. However, these tests were on a limited data set and one of the objectives of the current study is to increase the number of tested houses. This study focuses on answering two questions: (1) What is the uncertainty associated with changes in weather (primarily wind) conditions during DeltaQ testing? (2) How can these uncertainties be reduced? The first question is addressing issues of repeatability. To study this five houses were tested as many times as possible over a day. Weather data was recorded on-site--including the local windspeed. The result from these five houses were combined with the two Bay Area homes from the previous studies. The variability of the tests (represented by the standard deviation) is the repeatability of the test method for that house under the prevailing weather conditions. Because the testing was performed over a day a wide range of wind speeds was achieved following typical diurnal variations of low wind in the early morning and greatest winds in the late afternoon/early

Dickerhoff, Darryl; Walker, Iain

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

399

Electoral Competition, Political Uncertainty and Policy Insulation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Uncertainty and Policy Insulation Horn, Murray. 1995. TheUncertainty and Policy Insulation United States Congress.UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY INSULATION Rui J. P. de Figueiredo,

de Figueiredo, Rui J. P. Jr.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

400

Revisiting the Income Effect: Gasoline Prices and Grocery Purchases  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Sold On Sale and Retail Gasoline Prices Log % Purchased Onhigher gasoline prices into retail prices, by investigatingexcluding California average retail gasoline price for all

Gicheva, Dora; Hastings, Justine; Villas-Boas, Sofia B

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

,"New Mexico Natural Gas Prices"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

,"Worksheet Name","Description"," Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","New Mexico Natural Gas Prices",8,"Monthly","12015","1151989" ,"Release Date:","331...

402

,"New York Natural Gas Prices"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Name","Description"," Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","New York Natural Gas Prices",8,"Monthly","102014","1151989" ,"Release Date:","12312014"...

403

Residential heating oil price  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter A B CAdministrationheating oil price

404

Residential propane price  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter A Bheating oilheating5,propane price

405

Residential propane price decreases  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter A Bheatingpropane price decreases The

406

Residential propane price decreases  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter A Bheatingpropane price decreases

407

Residential propane price decreases  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter A Bheatingpropane price

408

Residential propane price decreases  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter A Bheatingpropane pricepropane price

409

Residential propane prices available  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter A Bheatingpropane6,propane prices

410

Residential propane prices decreases  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter A Bheatingpropane6,propane prices5,

411

Residential propane prices increase  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane prices increase The average

412

Residential propane prices increase  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane prices increase The

413

Residential propane prices increase  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane prices increase Thepropane

414

Residential propane prices increase  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane prices increase

415

Residential propane prices increase  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane prices increasepropane

416

Residential propane prices stable  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane prices increasepropanepropane

417

Residential propane prices stable  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane prices

418

Residential propane prices surges  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane pricespropane prices surges

419

Residential propane prices surges  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane pricespropane prices surges5,

420

Residential propane prices surges  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane pricespropane prices

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Residential propane prices surges  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane pricespropane prices9, 2014

422

Residential propane prices surges  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsrucLas ConchasPassive Solar HomePromisingStories »Submitter Apropane pricespropane prices9,

423

Average Commercial Price  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecemberSteam Coal Import CostsLiquidsYearReserves (Billion5: Oil andCitygate Price

424

Average Residential Price  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecemberSteam Coal Import CostsLiquidsYearReserves (Billion5: OilCitygate Price

425

Average Residential Price  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) " ,"ClickPipelines AboutDecemberSteam Coal Import CostsLiquidsYearReserves (Billion5: OilCitygate Price

426

Diesel prices decrease  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDiesel prices continueDiesel

427

Diesel prices decrease  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDiesel prices continueDieselDiesel

428

Diesel prices decrease  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDiesel prices

429

Diesel prices decrease slightly  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDieseldiesel prices

430

Diesel prices flat nationally  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDieseldiesel pricesDiesel

431

Diesel prices increase  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDieseldiesel pricesDieselDiesel

432

Diesel prices increase nationally  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDieseldieselDiesel prices

433

Diesel prices slightly decrease  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-Series to UserProduct: CrudeOfficeNERSC HelpsDieseldieselDieselDiesel prices

434

Incorporating uncertainty in RADTRAN 6.0 input files.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty may be introduced into RADTRAN analyses by distributing input parameters. The MELCOR Uncertainty Engine (Gauntt and Erickson, 2004) has been adapted for use in RADTRAN to determine the parameter shape and minimum and maximum of the distribution, to sample on the distribution, and to create an appropriate RADTRAN batch file. Coupling input parameters is not possible in this initial application. It is recommended that the analyst be very familiar with RADTRAN and able to edit or create a RADTRAN input file using a text editor before implementing the RADTRAN Uncertainty Analysis Module. Installation of the MELCOR Uncertainty Engine is required for incorporation of uncertainty into RADTRAN. Gauntt and Erickson (2004) provides installation instructions as well as a description and user guide for the uncertainty engine.

Dennis, Matthew L.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John (Alion Science and Technology)

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

435

Who is Exposed to Gas Prices? How Gasoline Prices Affect Automobile Manufacturers and Dealerships  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Who is Exposed to Gas Prices? How Gasoline Prices Affect Automobile Manufacturers and Dealerships Prices Affect Automobile Manufacturers and Dealerships Abstract Many consumers are keenly aware, by contrast, we investigate how gasoline prices affect the automobile industry: manufacturers and dealerships

Rothman, Daniel

436

Postgraduate Scholarship Pricing temperature derivatives and modelling  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the volumetric risk of the energy units sold, rather than the price risk of each unit. Weather derivativesPostgraduate Scholarship Pricing temperature derivatives and modelling the market price of risk: Pricing temperature derivatives and modelling the market price of risk. Main Supervisor: A. Alexandridis

Banaji,. Murad

437

Price's Theorem: A General Equation for Response  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

12 Price's Theorem: A General Equation for Response It is always difficult, in retrospect, to see situation. Ac- tually, there is, namely Price's Theorem (Price 1970, 1972a), also referred to as the Price Equation. Price's theorem provides a notationally elegant way to describe any selection re- sponse. We

Walsh, Bruce

438

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

papers indicating crude oil price shocks as a contributingdifferent measures of the crude oil price volatility series.of real average crude oil prices from 1957Q1 to 2010Q1

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

Assessment and Propagation of Model Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1982). Outlook for World Oil Prices. Washington DC: U. S.run. But, in view of the oil price example, which is worse—Case N-2524-RC, of Oil Prices. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.

David Draper

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The ongoing deregulation of electricity industries worldwide is providing incentives for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heat exchangers (HXs) to meet local energy loads. Although the electric-only efficiency of DG is lower than that of central-station production, relatively high tariff rates and the potential for CHP applications increase the attraction of on-site generation. Nevertheless, a microgrid contemplatingthe installation of gas-fired DG has to be aware of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treatment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of the investment opportunity, which then delays the adoption decision as the opportunity cost of exercising the investment option increases as well. In this paper, we take the perspective of a microgrid that can proceed in a sequential manner with DG capacity and HX investment in order to reduce its exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. In particular, with the availability of the HX, the microgrid faces a tradeoff between reducing its exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its cost savings. By varying the volatility parameter, we find that the microgrid prefers a direct investment strategy for low levels of volatility and a sequential one for higher levels of volatility.

Siddiqui, Afzal; Maribu, Karl

2008-08-18T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Regional variations in US residential sector fuel prices: implications for development of building energy performance standards  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for Energy Performance Standards for New Buildings presented life-cycle-cost based energy budgets for single-family detached residences. These energy budgets varied with regional climatic conditions but were all based on projections of national average prices for gas, oil and electricity. The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking indicated that further analysis of the appropriateness of various price measures for use in setting the Standards was under way. This part of that ongoing analysis addresses the availability of fuel price projections, the variation in fuel prices and escalation rates across the US and the effects of aggregating city price data to the state, Region, or national level. The study only provides a portion of the information required to identify the best price aggregation level for developing of the standards. The research addresses some of the economic efficiency considerations necessary for design of a standard that affects heterogeneous regions. The first section discusses the effects of price variation among and within regions on the efficiency of resource allocation when a standard is imposed. Some evidence of the extreme variability in fuel prices across the US is presented. In the second section, time series, cross-sectional fuel price data are statistically analyzed to determine the similarity in mean fuel prices and price escalation rates when the data are treated at increasing levels of aggregation. The findings of this analysis are reported in the third section, while the appendices contain price distributions details. The last section reports the availability of price projections and discusses some EIA projections compared with actual prices.

Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.; Secrest, T.J.

1981-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Decision Analysis for EGS | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Decision Analysis for EGS Decision Analysis for EGS Project objectives: DEVELOPMENT OF ANALYSIS TOOLS TO ASSESS: Uncertainties associated with exploration for EGS; Uncertainties...

443

Participatory Pricing in Sport: An Examination of Name-Your-Own-Price and Pay-What-You-Want Pricing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The purpose of this study is to better understand the effects participatory pricing strategies have on consumer perceptions and behaviors in a sport event pricing scenario. Participatory pricing strategies are those that include the consumer...

Reese, Jason 1985-

2012-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

444

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Industrial production, oil production, oil price and oilvariables in the VAR, oil production quantity as well as oilquarterly global crude oil production, crude oil price and

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

445

Efficient Metering Schemes with Pricing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Efficient Metering Schemes with Pricing Barbara Masucci Dipartimento di Informatica ed Applicazioni and Pinkas [7] introduced metering schemes. They proposed metering schemes in which any server is able and proposed metering schemes with pricing. In their schemes any server is able to construct a proof which

Stinson, Douglas

446

Uncertainty relation in Schwarzschild spacetime  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We explore the entropic uncertainty relation in the curved background outside a Schwarzschild black hole, and find that Hawking radiation introduces a nontrivial modification on the uncertainty bound for particular observer, therefore it could be witnessed by proper uncertainty game experimentally. We first investigate an uncertainty game between a free falling observer and his static partner holding a quantum memory initially entangled with the quantum system to be measured. Due to the information loss from Hawking decoherence, we find an inevitable increase of the uncertainty on the outcome of measurements in the view of static observer, which is dependent on the mass of the black hole, the distance of observer from event horizon, and the mode frequency of quantum memory. To illustrate the generality of this paradigm, we relate the entropic uncertainty bound with other uncertainty probe, e.g., time-energy uncertainty. In an alternative game between two static players, we show that quantum information of qubit can be transferred to quantum memory through a bath of fluctuating quantum fields outside the black hole. For a particular choice of initial state, we show that the Hawking decoherence cannot counteract entanglement generation after the dynamical evolution of system, which triggers an effectively reduced uncertainty bound that violates the intrinsic limit $-\\log_2c$. Numerically estimation for a proper choice of initial state shows that our result is comparable with possible real experiments. Finally, a discussion on the black hole firewall paradox in the context of entropic uncertainty relation is given.

Jun Feng; Yao-Zhong Zhang; Mark D. Gould; Heng Fan

2015-02-27T23:59:59.000Z

447

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast structures Stochastic trajectory Stochastic FTLE field Ensemble forecasting Uncertainty analysis a b s t r of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity

Ross, Shane

448

Real options approach to capacity planning under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis highlights the effectiveness of Real Options Analysis (ROA) in capacity planning decisions for engineering projects subject to uncertainty. This is in contrast to the irreversible decision-making proposed by ...

Mittal, Geetanjali, 1979-

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

Uncertainty in Greenhouse Emissions and Costs of Atmospheric Stabilization  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We explore the uncertainty in projections of emissions, and costs of atmospheric stabilization applying the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. ...

Webster, Mort D.

450

Distributed Generation Investment by a Microgrid under Uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper examines a California-based microgrid?s decision to invest in a distributed generation (DG) unit fuelled by natural gas. While the long-term natural gas generation cost is stochastic, we initially assume that the microgrid may purchase electricity at a fixed retail rate from its utility. Using the real options approach, we find a natural gas generation cost threshold that triggers DG investment. Furthermore, the consideration of operational flexibility by the microgrid increases DG investment, while the option to disconnect from the utility is not attractive. By allowing the electricity price to be stochastic, we next determine an investment threshold boundary and find that high electricity price volatility relative to that of natural gas generation cost delays investment while simultaneously increasing the value of the investment. We conclude by using this result to find the implicit option value of the DG unit when two sources of uncertainty exist.

Marnay, Chris; Siddiqui, Afzal; Marnay, Chris

2008-08-11T23:59:59.000Z

451

Prices include compostable serviceware and linen tablecloths  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

APPETIZERS Prices include compostable serviceware and linen tablecloths for the food tables.ucdavis.edu. BUTTERNUT SQUASH & BLACK BEAN ENCHILADAS #12;BUFFETS Prices include compostable serviceware and linen

California at Davis, University of

452

Oil Prices and Long-Run Risk.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide anexcellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low… (more)

READY, ROBERT

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

453

Issues in Parallel Branch and Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Branch and price is the technique of combining column generation methods with branch ... price has been shown to be very e ective at solving large, specially ...

454

Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate… (more)

Li, Guang, 1974-

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of households know their marginal price of electricity, andhouseholds experience substantially different nonlinear electricity pricehouseholds experience substantially different nonlinear electricity price

Ito, Koichiro

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

456

Utility Maximization under Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Motivated by several search and optimization problems over uncertain datasets, we study the stochastic versions of a broad class of combinatorial problems where either the existences or the weights of the elements in the input dataset are uncertain. The class of problems that we study includes shortest paths, minimum weight spanning trees, and minimum weight matchings over probabilistic graphs; top-k queries over probabilistic datasets; and other combinatorial problems like knapsack. By noticing that the expected value is inadequate in capturing different types of risk-averse or risk-prone behaviors, we consider a more general objective which is to maximize the expected utility of the solution for some given utility function. For weight uncertainty model, we show that we can obtain a polynomial time approximation algorithm with additive error eps for any eps>0, if there is a pseudopolynomial time algorithm for the exact version of the problem. Our result generalizes several prior works on stochastic shortest ...

Li, Jian

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

An empirical evaluation of trader reputation and market structure on market efficiency and price in commodity markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

volume also declined, but prices dropped. These effects were roughly proportional to the value of the expected loss. These results suggest that reputation does have an effect on price and quantity. With CATTLEX, sellers often specified "no... not know who the seller (buyer) will be and therefore does not know what the reputation that party will possess. Trader performance is very impor- tant to the success of electronic markets (Sporleder). Because of uncertainty, buyers (sellers) could...

Colling, Phil Lewis

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Analyzing reliability of virtual machine instances with dynamic pricing in the public cloud  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study presents reliability analysis of virtual machine instances in public cloud environments in the face of dynamic pricing. Different from traditional fixed pricing, dynamic pricing allows price to dynamically fluctuate over arbitrary period of time according to external factors such as supply and demand, excess capacity, etc. This pricing option introduces a new type of fault: virtual machine instances may be unexpectedly terminated due to conflicts in the original bid price and the current offered price. This new class of fault under dynamic pricing may be more dominant than traditional faults in cloud computing environments, where resource availability associated with traditional faults is often above 99.9%. To address and understand this new type of fault, we translated two classic reliability metrics, mean time between failures and availability, to the Amazon Web Services spot market using historical price data. We also validated our findings by submitting actual bids in the spot market. We found that overall, our historical analysis and experimental validation lined up well. Based upon these experimental results, we also provided suggestions and techniques to maximize overall reliability of virtual machine instances under dynamic pricing.

Lim, Seung-Hwan [ORNL; Thakur, Gautam [ORNL; Horey, James L [ORNL

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

459

Guidance on Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Required by Executive Order...  

Energy Savers [EERE]

Documents & Publications Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2010 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis -...

460

Price determination for breeding bulls  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Oammittee) Ra A. ietrzch C. J ~) Daru. I (Heai of August l987 Price Detezlainatian for Breeding Bulls. (August 1987) Jerry Carl Namkan, B. S. , Texas A&M University; Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Donald E. Ferris A study using two different data... sets was conducted to determine the factors affecting the price of zmg~ Hereford hulls. In the first data set, both ~ and lagged national ~ feeder steer, utility cow, and crude oil prices, and net farm income were analyzed in a regzmsion procedure...

Namken, Jerry Carl

1987-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Edgeworth Cycles and Focal Prices: Computational Dynamic Markov Equilibria  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1993). “Gas Wars: Retail Gasoline Price Fluctuations”,Price Cycles: Firm Interaction in the Toronto Retail GasolinePrice Cycles, Cost-based Pricing and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline

Noel, Michael D.

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford.

DeMuth, S.F. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Franklin, A.L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

1996-08-07T23:59:59.000Z

463

A FRAMEWORK FOR TRANSMISSION CONGESTION MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS MINGHAI LIU  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

congestion, the market-based mechanisms using the locational marginal prices (LMPs) have become the most transmission services and compute the pricing for those services. The inherent volatility of electricity markets introduces uncertainty in the LMPs and consequently, in transmission pricing. In order to protect

Gross, George

464

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

2 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2012 Report provides tables of present-value factors for use in the life-cycle cost analysis of capital...

465

Introduction Risk associated with an adverse price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Introduction Risk associated with an adverse price change (price risk) is a normal part commodities are sold suggests price risk is an unavoidable part of being involved in the industry. Producers that have significant price variability. Recent domestic farm policy changes and trade barrier reductions

O'Laughlin, Jay

466

Explaining the Price of Voluntary Carbon Offsets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford Univer- sity. Figure 1: Histogram of carbon offset prices (

Conte, Marc N.; Kotchen, Matthew

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Natural gas prices: Rhyme or reason  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Problems in the establishment of natural gas prices are outlined. The tropics discussed include: US average natural gas prices; US average natural gas prices; US average fuel oil prices; and US average electric utility natural gas T and D margin in dollars Mcf.

Tucker, L.L.

1995-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

468

THE SIMPLE ECONOMICS OF COMMODITY PRICE SPECULATION  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This draft: April 9, 2013 Abstract The price of crude oil in the U.S. never exceeded $40 per barrel until mid price changes? We clarify the effects of speculators on commodity prices. We focus on crude oil, but our approach can be applied to other commodities. We explain the meaning of "oil price speculation," how it can

Rothman, Daniel

469

The power of dynamic pricing  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Using data from a generic California utility, it can be shown that it is feasible to develop dynamic pricing rates for all customer classes. These rates have the potential to reduce system peak demands from 1 to 9 percent. (author)

Faruqui, Ahmad; Hledik, Ryan; Tsoukalis, John

2009-04-15T23:59:59.000Z

470

Volatility and commodity price dynamics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Commodity prices tend to be volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total ...

Pindyck, Robert S.

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

471

Figure 4. World Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

4. World Oil Prices" " (2007 dollars per barrel)" ,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026,2027,2028,2029,2030...

472

Investors' horizon and stock prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This dissertation consists of three essays on the relation between investors' trading horizon and stock prices. The first chapter explores the theoretical relation between the horizon of traders and the negative externality ...

Parsa, Sahar

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

The world price of coal  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A significant increase in the seaborne trade for coal over the past twenty years has unified formerly separate coal markets into a world market in which prices move in tandem. Due to its large domestic market, the United ...

Ellerman, A. Denny

1994-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR-1 Experiment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents an effort to quantify the uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the first Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR-1) fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the INL’s Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in support of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) R&D program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR-1 test, the results of the numerical simulations can be used in combination with the statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. Additionally, the temperature simulation data for AGR tests can be used for validation of the fuel transport and fuel performance simulation models. The crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. The report is organized into three chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification program and provides overviews of AGR-1 measured data, AGR-1 test configuration and test procedure, and thermal simulation. Chapters 2 describes the uncertainty quantification procedure for temperature simulation data of the AGR-1 experiment, namely, (i) identify and quantify uncertainty sources; (ii) perform sensitivity analysis for several thermal test conditions; (iii) use uncertainty propagation to quantify overall response temperature uncertainty. A set of issues associated with modeling uncertainties resulting from the expert assessments are identified. This also includes the experimental design to estimate the main effects and interactions of the important thermal model parameters. Chapter 3 presents the overall uncertainty results for the six AGR-1 capsules. This includes uncertainties for the daily volume-average and peak fuel temperatures, daily average temperatures at TC locations, and time-average volume-average and time-average peak fuel temperatures.

Binh T. Pham; Jeffrey J. Einerson; Grant L. Hawkes

2013-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR-1 Experiment  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report documents an effort to quantify the uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the first Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR-1) fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the INL's Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in support of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) R&D program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR-1 test, the results of the numerical simulations can be used in combination with the statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. Additionally, the temperature simulation data for AGR tests can be used for validation of the fuel transport and fuel performance simulation models. The crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. The report is organized into three chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification program and provides overviews of AGR-1 measured data, AGR-1 test configuration and test procedure, and thermal simulation. Chapters 2 describes the uncertainty quantification procedure for temperature simulation data of the AGR-1 experiment, namely, (i) identify and quantify uncertainty sources; (ii) perform sensitivity analysis for several thermal test conditions; (iii) use uncertainty propagation to quantify overall response temperature uncertainty. A set of issues associated with modeling uncertainties resulting from the expert assessments are identified. This also includes the experimental design to estimate the main effects and interactions of the important thermal model parameters. Chapter 3 presents the overall uncertainty results for the six AGR-1 capsules. This includes uncertainties for the daily volume-average and peak fuel temperatures, daily average temperatures at TC locations, and time-average volume-average and time-average peak fuel temperatures.

Binh T. Pham; Jeffrey J. Einerson; Grant L. Hawkes

2012-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

476

The Price of Feed Utilities.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

TEXAS AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION AGRICULTURAL AND MECHANICAL COLLEGE OF TEXAS W. B. BIZZELL, President BULLETIN NO. 323 September, 1924 DIVISION OF CHEMISTRY THE PRICE OF FEED UTILITIES B. YOUNGBLOOD, DIRECTOR COLLEGE STATION, BRAZOS.... SYNOPSIS The object of this Bulletin is to study the relation between the selling --:--s of commercial feeds and their content of feed utilities. The prices ounds of digestible protein, and therms of productive energy, were lated from certain available...

Fraps, G. S. (George Stronach)

1924-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Testing The Effects Of Price Responsive Demand On Uniform Price And Soft-Cap Electricity Auctions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Testing The Effects Of Price Responsive Demand On Uniform Price And Soft-Cap Electricity Auctions R. The soft-cap market has not worked well. Spot prices for electricity in California remained consistently of different electric power markets with respect to price volatility and average market price. In particular

478

The Effects of Price Transparency Regulation on Prices in the Healthcare Industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The Effects of Price Transparency Regulation on Prices in the Healthcare Industry Hans B Policymakers have enacted price transparency regulations in over thirty states during the past decade-state variation to address endogeneity concerns, we find that price transparency regulations reduce the price

Mateo, Jill M.

479

Impact on retail prices of non-neutral wholesale prices for content providers  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Impact on retail prices of non-neutral wholesale prices for content providers Giuseppe D Atlantique Rennes, France Email: bruno.tuffin@irisa.fr Abstract--The impact of wholesale prices is examined equal wholesale prices to the two content providers), the benefits coming from wholesale price

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

480

An Empirical Study of Pricing Strategies in an Online Market with High-Frequency Price Information  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

), and British shipping cartels by Scott Morton (1997); research on Edgeworth cycles in retail gasoline pricing pricing data on rivals would not have been viewed as suspicious. The retail gasoline pricing data usedAn Empirical Study of Pricing Strategies in an Online Market with High-Frequency Price Information

Lotko, William

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Automatic stock market trading based on Technical Analysis.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? The theory of technical analysis suggests that future stock price developement can be foretold by analyzing historical price fluctuations and identifying repetitive patterns. A… (more)

Larsen, Fredrik

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

E-Print Network 3.0 - avt-147 computational uncertainty Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Imaging Institute, University of Utah Collection: Computer Technologies and Information Sciences 6 Unified Uncertainty Analysis for Simulation-Based Engineering Science...

483

E-Print Network 3.0 - analytical uncertainty propagation Sample...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

and Information Sciences 2 CE 473573 Groundwater Introduction to uncertainty analysis and error propagation Summary: CE 473573 Groundwater Fall 2011 Introduction to...

484

Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

2014-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

Index Revision, House Price Risk, and the Market for House Price Derivatives  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

bias in repeat-sales home price indices. Freddie Mac workingpaper #05–03. Index Revision, House Price Risk, and theMarket for House Price Derivatives Calhoun, C. A. (1996).

Deng, Yongheng; Quigley, John M.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

488

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

489

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

491

Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...

Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.

492

Crude oil prices and petroleum inventories : remedies for a broken oil price forecasting model.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The empirical relationship between crude oil prices and petroleum inventories has been exploited in a number of short-term oil price forecasting models. Some of the… (more)

Grimstad, Dan

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

493

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

need to consider coal and other fuel prices. This work wascoal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Using Environmental Emissions Permit Prices to Raise Electricity Prices: Evidence from the California Electricity Market  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Environmental Emissions Permit Prices to Raise ElectricityEnvironmental Emissions Permit Prices to Raise Electricitythe conditions in the emissions permit market for oxides of

Kolstad, Jonathan; Wolak, Frank

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Forecasting Prices andForecasting Prices and Congestion forCongestion for  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

80 100 120 140 160 180 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Hours Price($/MWh) ANN/ARMA Actual Price ANN 0

Tesfatsion, Leigh

496

Energy prices, production  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper investigates economic incentives influencing the adoption of energy saving technology by industry, namely, CHP in UK and Dutch manufacturing sectors. The empirical analysis is based on a cross sectional time series econometric model...

Bonilla, David

497

Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Consider a valuable renewable resource whose biomass X2003. “Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty,”Harvesting a Renewable Resource under Uncertainty 1 (with

Saphores, Jean-Daniel M

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About...  

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel 2002 DEER Conference...

499

adjusted loan pricing: Topics by E-print Network  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Spot pricing covers a range of electric utility pricing structures which relate the marginal costs of electric generation to the prices seen by utility customers. At the shortest...

500

Edgeworth Price Cycles: Evidence from the Toronto Retail Gasoline Market  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Johnson. “Gas Wars: Retail Gasoline Price Fluctua- tions”,Canadian cities, retail gasoline prices are very volatileset of twelve-hourly retail gasoline prices for 22 service

Noel, Michael

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z