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Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


1

Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating 4.1 Oil Prices...............................................................................................14 4.1.1 Analysis of historical oil prices........................................................15

Bhulai, Sandjai

2

Management strategies for Indonesian rubber production under yield and price uncertainty: a bioeconomic analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

A simplified version of the BEAM Rubber Agroforestry Model is embedded in a dynamic economic model to examine the impact of uncertainty about prices and climate on decision variables. Solutions, in terms of op...

R. Purnamasari; O. Cacho; P. Simmons

3

Uncertainty analysis of an aviation climate model and an aircraft price model for assessment of environmental effects  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Estimating, presenting, and assessing uncertainties are important parts in assessment of a complex system. This thesis focuses on the assessment of uncertainty in the price module and the climate module in the Aviation ...

Jun, Mina

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with heterogenous power plants  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract European power producers have a major influence on the EU ETS, given that both their CO2 emissions and their EUA (European Union Allowance) allocations account for more than half of the total volumes of the scheme. Fuel switching is often considered as the main short-term abatement measure under the EU ETS. It consists in substituting combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) for hard-coal plants in power generation. Thereby coal plants run for shorter periods, and CO2 emissions are reduced. This paper provides the first theoretical analysis of fuel switching, in a context where power plants involved are not equally efficient. We begin with a preliminary work using illustrative examples and sensitivity analyses, which enables us to observe how differences in the efficiency of power plants impact the cost of fuel switching, and how this is related to the level of switching effort. Based on this, we build a theoretical model taking into account the effect of differences in the efficiency of power plants involved in fuel switching. We also investigate the effect of the timing of fuel switching abatements, within the temporally defined environment of our dynamic model. Results demonstrate that the gas price and uncontrolled CO2 emissions act together on the carbon price. We show that the influence of the gas price on the carbon price depends on the level of uncontrolled CO2 emissions, due to heterogeneity of power plants that are used in the fuel switching process. Furthermore, we show that the time of occurrence of uncontrolled emissions matters so that shocks have a stronger impact when they occur in a period that is closed to the end of the phase.

Vincent Bertrand

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

5

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 Outlook Price Uncertainty-January 2010 1 January 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged $74.50 per barrel in December 2009, about $3.50 per barrel lower than the prior month's average. The WTI spot price fell from $78 to $70 during the first 2 weeks of December, but colder-than-normal weather and U.S. crude oil and product inventory draws that exceeded the December 5-year averages helped push it back up to $79 per barrel by the end of the month. EIA forecasts that WTI spot prices will weaken over

6

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 July 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 July 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $75.34 per barrel in June 2010 ($1.60 per barrel above the prior month's average), close to the $76 per barrel projected in the forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown (Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty). WTI futures for September 2010 delivery for the

7

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

November 2010 November 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 November 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel in October, about $7 per barrel higher than the September average, as expectations of higher oil demand pushed up prices. EIA has raised the average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to about $83 per barrel compared with $79 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices rise to $87 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $85 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for January 2011 delivery (for the 5-day period ending November 4)

8

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

May 2010 May 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 May 11, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $84 per barrel in April 2010, about $3 per barrel above the prior month's average and $2 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $84 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $87 by the end of next year, an increase of about $2 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

9

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 June 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 June 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged less than $74 per barrel in May 2010, almost $11 per barrel below the prior month's average and $7 per barrel lower than forecast in last month's Outlook. EIA projects WTI prices will average about $79 per barrel over the second half of this year and rise to $84 by the end of next year, a decrease of about $3 per barrel from the previous Outlook (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart). Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown. Prices for near-term futures options contracts suggest that the market attaches

10

Essays on pricing under uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

sales from sales under average conditions, it presents is the first study to show empirical evidence of peak load pricing in airlines. (5) It controls for potential endogeneity of sales using dynamic panels. The first essay tests the empirical importance...

Escobari Urday, Diego Alfonso

2008-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

11

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 September 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 September 8, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged about $77 per barrel in August 2010, very close to the July average, but $3 per barrel lower than projected in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices averaged almost $82 per barrel over the first 10 days of August but then fell by $9 per barrel over the next 2 weeks as the market reacted to a series of reports of a stumbling economic recovery. EIA has lowered its average fourth quarter 2010 WTI spot price forecast to $77 per barrel, compared with $81 in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to

12

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

October 2010 October 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 October 13, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI oil prices averaged $75 per barrel in September but rose above $80 at the end of the month and into early October. EIA has raised the average fourth- quarter 2010 forecasted WTI spot price to $79 per barrel compared with $77 per barrel in last monthʹs Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to rise to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. As has been the case for most of 2010, WTI futures traded with a notable lack of volatility during the third quarter of 2010 (Figure 1). However, prices did bounce in

13

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

March 2010 March 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 March 9, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $76.39 per barrel in February 2010, almost $2 per barrel lower than the prior month's average and very near the $76 per barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. Last month, the WTI spot price reached a low of $71.15 on February 5 and peaked at $80.04 on February 22. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $80 per barrel this spring, rising to an average of about $82 per barrel by the end of the year and to $85 per barrel by the end of 2011 (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Chart).

14

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

December 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 December 7, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $84 per barrel in November, more than $2 per barrel higher than the October average. EIA has raised the average winter 2010-2011 period WTI spot price forecast by $1 per barrel from the last monthʹs Outlook to $84 per barrel. WTI spot prices rise to $89 per barrel by the end of next year, $2 per barrel higher than in the last Outlook. Projected WTI prices average $79 per barrel in 2010 and $86 per barrel in 2011. WTI futures for February 2011 delivery during the 5-day period ending December 2

15

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement .docx  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 1 January 2011 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 January 11, 2011 Release Crude Oil Prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices averaged over $89 per barrel in December, about $5 per barrel higher than the November average. Expectations of higher oil demand, combined with unusually cold weather in both Europe and the U.S. Northeast, contributed to prices. EIA has raised the first quarter 2011 WTI spot price forecast by $8 per barrel from last monthʹs Outlook to $92 per barrel with a continuing rise to an average $99 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012. The projected annual average WTI price is $93 per barrel in 2011 and $98 per barrel in

16

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

April 2010 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 April 6, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $81 per barrel in March 2010, almost $5 per barrel above the prior month's average and $3 per barrel higher than forecast in last month's Outlook. Oil prices rose from a low this year of $71.15 per barrel on February 5 to $80 per barrel by the end of February, generally on news of robust economic and energy demand growth in non-OECD Asia and the Middle East, and held near $81 until rising to $85 at the start of April. EIA expects WTI prices to average above $81 per barrel this summer, slightly less that $81 for 2010 as a whole,

17

Assessing the Role of Operating, Passenger, and Infrastructure Costs in Fleet Planning under Fuel Price Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

ICKET . Aircraft Category Fuel Price (FP) Coefficient SL*FPin Fleet Planning under Fuel Price Uncertainty Megan Smirti,in Fleet Planning under Fuel Price Uncertainty Megan Smirti,

Smirti, Megan; Hansen, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

18

Analysis of Strategies of Companies under Carbon Constraint: Relationship between Profit Structure of Companies and Carbon/Fuel Price Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This paper examines the relationship between future carbon prices and the expected profit of companies by case studies with model companies. As the future carbon price will vary significantly in accordance with the political ...

Hashimoto, Susumu

19

Microsoft Word - Documentation - Price Forecast Uncertainty.doc  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

October 2009 October 2009 1 October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 Summary It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy- related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the market- clearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities. These bands provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty regarding the range in which markets expect prices to

20

How does fuel price uncertainty affect strategic airline planning?  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Today, jet fuel costs are a growing part in airlines ... fluctuations. Therefore, airlines think about minimizing jet fuel costs and counteracting fuel price uncertainty. The strategic flight planning highly det...

Marc Naumann; Leena Suhl

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Volatile coal prices reflect supply, demand uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Coal mine owners and investors say that supply and demand are now finally in balance. But coal consumers find that both spot tonnage and new contract coal come at a much higher price.

Ryan, M.

2004-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

22

Microsoft Word - feb10-Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

February 2010 February 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty 1 February 12, 2010 Release Crude Oil Prices. WTI crude oil spot prices averaged $78.33 per barrel in January 2010, almost $4 per barrel higher than the prior month's average and matching the $78-per-barrel forecast in last month's Outlook. The WTI spot price peaked at $83.12 on January 6 and then fell to $72.85 on January 29 as the weather turned warm and concerns about the strength of world economic recovery increased. EIA forecasts that WTI spot prices will remain near current levels over the next few months, averaging $76 per barrel in February and March, before rising to about $82 per barrel in the late

23

Asymmetric responses of highway travel demand to changes in fuel price: An explanation via fuel price uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Previous research has examined asymmetric effects of fuel price uncertainty on energy demand. If we consider that energy demand is related to travel demand, the changes in fuel prices may have asymmetric effects on highway travel demand via fuel price uncertainty. In other words, when in general fuel price is steadily rising, the highway traffic volume decreases by a small percentage. On the other hand, the highway traffic volume increases by a large percentage when fuel prices are falling. We hypothesize that the uncertainty in fuel prices generates this kind of asymmetric effect on highway traffic volume in Korea. We use the Korean monthly fuel price and highway traffic volume data from 2001 to 2009, and define the intra-month (weekly) fuel price changes as monthly fuel price volatility which is a proxy for monthly fuel price uncertainty. We found that the direction of the change in fuel prices had asymmetric effects on highway travel demand and that the fuel price uncertainty led drivers to respond asymmetrically to the changes in fuel prices.

Yongjae Kwon; Jaimin Lee

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Optimal Capacity Investment, and Pricing Across International Markets Under Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Duopoly Competition.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??In this dissertation we investigate joint optimal capacity investment, pricing and production decisions for a multinational manufacturer who faces exchange rate uncertainties. We consider a (more)

Ahmed, Anas A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

per capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these areby uctuations in the crude oil price. The overall mean realcandidates are the crude oil price and the tax level. Both

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

global gasoline and diesel price and income elasticities.shift in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand.Habits and Uncertain Relative Prices: Simulating Petrol Con-

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

capita terms. When crude oil prices are used, these are theprices are driven by oil prices, moreover, and oil isby uctuations in the crude oil price. The overall mean real

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Optimal operating strategies coping with uncertainties of world oil prices for China's strategic petroleum reserve  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Since 2003, China has begun to establish its own strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to strengthen its oil supply security. Due to the unpredictable feature of the oil supply interruption or sudden price rising, questions about operating the SPR become an important issue for China's policy makers. This paper analysed the operating strategies for China's SPR by developing a stochastic dynamic programming model, which considered uncertainties of the world oil prices and the construction process of China's SPR sites. Different situations, including normal world oil prices, short-term world oil price rising, continuously high world oil prices and continuously oil price decrease were considered and discussed. Optimal SPR operating strategies coping with uncertainties of world oil prices for China were derived and relevant policy implications were obtained. The influence effects on world oil price caused by the acquisition or drawdown actions of China's SPR were considered, too.

Xin Chen; Hailin Mu

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Subject: Cost and Price Analysis | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

Subject: Cost and Price Analysis Subject: Cost and Price Analysis Subject: Cost and Price Analysis More Documents & Publications Acquisition Letter 2009-03 Acquisition...

30

Reservation Price Estimation by Adaptive Conjoint Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Reservation Price Estimation by Adaptive Conjoint Analysis Christoph Breidert1 , Michael Hahsler1 applied the eco- nomic definition of reservation price in combination with a conjoint study on product pricing. In this paper we present a novel approach to estimate the economic reser- vation price using

Schmidt-Thieme, Lars

31

EIA - Natural Gas Price Data & Analysis  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Prices Prices Prices U.S. and State prices for wellhead, imports, exports, citygate, and end-use sectors. Percentages of total volume delivered by sector. (monthly, annual). Residential and Commercial Prices by Local Distributors and Marketers Average price of natural gas delivered to residential and commercial consumers by local distribution companies and marketers, and the percent sold by local distribution companies in selected states and DC (annual). Spot and Futures Prices Henry Hub natural gas spot price and New York Mercantile Exchange futures contract prices for natural gas based on delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana (daily, weekly, monthly, annual). Natural Gas Weekly Update Analysis of current price, supply, and storage data; and a weather snapshot.

32

Application of price uncertainty quantification models and their impacts on project evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(EIA),16 the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is projected to average $68 per barrel in both 2006 and 2007. 2.2 Uncertainty in Petroleum Project Evaluations The literature indicates an informal distinction between ?risk...

Fariyibi, Festus Lekan

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

33

Operation Planning of Multiparcel Tankers under Fuel Price Uncertainty  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

They may deviate slightly from their normal voyage plans, incur necessary port dues, or even delay the transit through a canal to refuel at a port with attractively priced fuel. ... Most commercial marine vessels use fuels with 180 cst, 380 cst, and 500 cst viscosities with 380 cst being the most common. ... The fuel prices for these options are uncertain except at the end of leg 0. Since the tanker may be at a port, or will reach the next port shortly after time zero, it is reasonable to assume that the fuel price of each refueling option after leg 0 is fixed and known. ...

H. C. Oh; I. A. Karimi

2010-05-26T23:59:59.000Z

34

An analysis of the consistency and quality of extension decision aids and the effects of yield and price uncertainty on decision aid results  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

FOR THE EXAMPLE FARM BASED ON ALTERNATIVE TAX RATE AND REPLACEMENT COST ASSUMPTIONS 16 TABLE 3. EXAMPLE FARM DATA FOR CRP ANALYSIS 28 TABLE 4. BREAKEVEN BIDS FOR THE EXAMPLE SITUATION BASED ON ALTERNATIVE DISCOUNT RATES. INFLATION RATES AND OWNERSHIP COST... examines the response of the breakeven bids to a 25% increase in asset replacement cost. The marginal tax rate is set at zero percent to isolate the effects of a change in asset values. Four of the eight worksheets accommodated differences in asset...

Kubiak, Kathryn Aileen

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

35

Investment and Pricing with Spectrum Uncertainty: A Cognitive Operator's Perspective  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

" of licensed bands and dynamically leasing from the spectrum owner. As a result, a C-MVNO can make flexible--Cognitive radio, spectrum trading, spectrum sensing, dynamic spectrum leasing, spectrum pricing, Stackelberg game affecting the normal oper- ation of the spectrum owner who serves the primary (licensed) users. Dynamic

Huang, Jianwei

36

A REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, which is near-universally measured by the Net Present Value (NPV), considering all capital expenditure commodity prices (directly impacting revenues) and the fact that very large capital expenditures project valuation method so that the sizing of initial capital expenditures are appropriate

Duffy, Ken

37

Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the transmission and response of inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the UK using a bi-variate EGARCH model. Results suggest that inflation uncertain...

Ramprasad Bhar; Girijasankar Mallik

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

38

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

analysis of the demand for oil in the Middle East. EnergyEstimates elasticity of demand for crude oil, not gasoline.World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model.

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

39

Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.

Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.

2014-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

COST AND PRICE ANALYSIS--AN EXPLANATION Some form of price or cost analysis should be performed in connection with every procurement action,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

06/06 COST AND PRICE ANALYSIS--AN EXPLANATION Some form of price or cost analysis should, and the pricing situation. Determination of price reasonableness through price or cost analysis is required even the conclusions arrived at through cost analysis. The form and degree of analysis are dependent on facts

Weston, Ken

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

shift in the short-run price elasticity of gasoline demand.A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand.2007. Consumer demand un- der price uncertainty: Empirical

Scott, K. Rebecca

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

42

Estimating Marginal Residential Energy Prices in the Analysis of Proposed  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Marginal Residential Energy Prices in the Analysis of Proposed Marginal Residential Energy Prices in the Analysis of Proposed Appliance Energy Efficiency Standards Title Estimating Marginal Residential Energy Prices in the Analysis of Proposed Appliance Energy Efficiency Standards Publication Type Report LBNL Report Number LBNL-44230 Year of Publication 2000 Authors Chaitkin, Stuart, James E. McMahon, Camilla Dunham Whitehead, Robert D. Van Buskirk, and James D. Lutz Document Number LBNL-44230 Date Published March 1 Publisher Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory City Berkeley Abstract Use of marginal energy prices, instead of average energy prices, represents a theoretically valuable and challenging refinement to the usual life-cycle cost analysis conducted for proposed appliance energy efficiency standards. LBNL developed a method to estimate marginal residential energy prices using a regression analysis based on a nationally representative sample of actual consumer energy bills. Based on the 1997 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), national mean marginal electricity prices were estimated to be 2.5% less than average electricity prices in the summer and 10.0% less than average prices in the non-summer months. For natural gas, marginal prices were 4.4% less than average prices in the winter and 15.3% less than average prices in the non-winter months.

43

Application Form Certificate Program in Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of Uncertainty Analysis (3 credits): Nuclear Engineering 602 Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers of Engineering University of Wisconsin-Madison Personal Information: Name: __________________________ Department of Engineering Physics, College of Engineering, UW-Madison, 147 Engineering Research Building, 1500 Engineering

Van Veen, Barry D.

44

October 16, 2014 Webinar- Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Webinar October 16, 2014, 11 am 12:40 pm EDT: Dr. Paul Black (Neptune, Inc), Decisional Analysis under Uncertainty

45

EIA - Analysis of Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Prices Prices 2010 Peaks, Plans and (Persnickety) Prices This presentation provides information about EIA's estimates of working gas peak storage capacity, and the development of the natural gas storage industry. Natural gas shale and the need for high deliverability storage are identified as key drivers in natural gas storage capacity development. The presentation also provides estimates of planned storage facilities through 2012. Categories: Prices, Storage (Released, 10/28/2010, ppt format) Natural Gas Year-In-Review 2009 This is a special report that provides an overview of the natural gas industry and markets in 2009 with special focus on the first complete set of supply and disposition data for 2009 from the Energy Information Administration. Topics discussed include natural gas end-use consumption trends, offshore and onshore production, imports and exports of pipeline and liquefied natural gas, and above-average storage inventories. Categories: Prices, Production, Consumption, Imports/Exports & Pipelines, Storage (Released, 7/9/2010, Html format)

46

ANALYSIS OF FUTURE PRICES AND MARKETS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1 ANALYSIS OF FUTURE PRICES AND MARKETS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE SUPERCONDUCTORS BY JOSEPH MULHOLLAND of Future Prices and Markets for High Temperature Superconductors 2 I . PURPOSE, SCOPE AND APPROACH analysts to make estimates about the future of high temperature superconductor (HTS) technology

47

Multi-fractal Analysis of World Crude Oil Prices  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In order to reveal the stylized facts of world crude oil prices, R/S (Rescaled Range Analysis) method is introduced in this paper. For illustration, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and Brent daily crude oil prices are used in this paper. The calculated ...

Xiucheng Dong; Junchen Li; Jian Gao

2009-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

48

IPA Phase 2 sensitivity and uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The NRC`s Phase 2 Iterative Performance Assessment (IPA) used Monte Carlo techniques to propagate uncertainty for up to 297 independent variables and nine scenarios through computer models representing the performance of the Yucca Mountain repository. The NRC staff explored the use of a number of parametric and non-parametric tests and graphical methods to display the probabilistic results. Parametric tests included regression and differential analysis. Non-parametric tests included the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Sign test. Graphical methods included the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF), hair diagram, scatter plots, histograms and box plots. Multiple linear regression of raw, ranked, standardized and other transformed variables determined the gross sensitivity over the parameter space. CCDF`s were also generated from subsets of the 400 vector sets formed by screening the vectors according to values of derived variables related to the behavior of the engineered and natural systems. While no single statistical or graphical technique proved to be useful in all cases, diverse methods of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified the same important input parameters.

Colten-Bradley, V.; Codell, R.; Byrne, M.R. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)

1994-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

49

Consumer Demand under Price Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Market for Cigarettes  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NY,t#5;1 #1; di#15;pChi,t#5;1 #1; ei#15;pLA,t#5;1 #1; eit. (9) 13 We observe prices in the BLS data set for a much longer time period than we observe smoking choices in the NELS. Thus our analysis of smoking behavior reported in section IV of this paper...-test for the null hypothesis that ci #2; di #2; ei #2; 0 for the 24 cities that are not New York, Chicago, or Los Angeles. We find that the null hypothesis is rejected for 15 out the 24 cities at 5%. But we can only reject the null at 1% three times. We then pick...

Coppejans, Mark; Gilleskie, Donna; Sieg, Holger; Strumpf, Koleman

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

50

Uncertainty Budget Analysis for Dimensional Inspection Processes (U)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper is intended to provide guidance and describe how to prepare an uncertainty analysis of a dimensional inspection process through the utilization of an uncertainty budget analysis. The uncertainty analysis is stated in the same methodology as that of the ISO GUM standard for calibration and testing. There is a specific distinction between how Type A and Type B uncertainty analysis is used in a general and specific process. All theory and applications are utilized to represent both a generalized approach to estimating measurement uncertainty and how to report and present these estimations for dimensional measurements in a dimensional inspection process. The analysis of this uncertainty budget shows that a well-controlled dimensional inspection process produces a conservative process uncertainty, which can be attributed to the necessary assumptions in place for best possible results.

Valdez, Lucas M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-07-26T23:59:59.000Z

51

Strategic power plant investment planning under fuel and carbon price uncertainty.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The profitability of power plant investments depends strongly on uncertain fuel and carbon prices. In this doctoral thesis, we combine fundamental electricity market models with (more)

Geiger, Ansgar

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

was done in the framework of a research project on model uncertainty at HSBC-CCF, Division of Market

53

An intraseasonal price analysis for Texas fresh grapefruit  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

AN INTRASEASONAL PRICE ANALYSIS FOR TEXAS FRESH GRAPEFRUIT A Thesis by EDWARD GAIL SMITH Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May 1975 Major... Subject: Agricultural Economics AN INTRASEASONAL PRICE ANALYSIS FOR TEXAS FRESH GRAPEFRUIT A Thesis by EDWARD GAIL SMITH Approved as to style and content by: (~? tl ?0') /X~g, . (Chairman of Committee) g r=-;- . . . ') (Head of Depart ent...

Smith, E. G

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

54

Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives.

Benjamin, U.S.; Boyd, G.J.

1986-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

55

Price Realism Analysis| An Examination of an Area Ripe for Reform.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? The purpose of this thesis is to explore the confusion and misapplication of price realism analysis in evaluations of firm-fixed price contracts and to (more)

Bernstein, Alexis J.

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy (more)

Sener, Adil Caner

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Maximizing Gross Margin of a Pumped Storage Hydroelectric Facility Under Uncertainty in Price and Water Inflow.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??The operation of a pumped storage hydroelectric facility is subject to uncertainty. This is especially true in todays energy markets. Published models to achieve optimal (more)

Ikudo, Akina

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

COST AND PRICE ANALYSIS WORKSHEET Name of Subcontractor  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

COST AND PRICE ANALYSIS WORKSHEET Name of Subcontractor: The following worksheet is provided-house estimate (attach estimate). Cost Analysis was conducted based on one or more of the following (check those: Identify the name, rate and number of hours/days for each consultant. Determine that the purpose and cost

Weston, Ken

59

Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...

Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.

60

Analysis of S-Circuit Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The theory of sensori-computational circuits provides a capable framework for the description and optimization of robotic systems, including on-line optimizations. This theory, however, is inadequate in that it does not account for uncertainty in a...

Ahmed, Taahir

2011-08-08T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


61

Econometric analysis of Australian emissions markets and electricity prices  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Emissions trading schemes aim to reduce the emissions in certain pollutants using a market based scheme where participants can buy and sell permits for these emissions. This paper analyses the efficiency of the two largest schemes in Australia, the NSW Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme and the Mandatory Renewable Energy Trading Scheme, through their effect on the electricity prices from 2004 to 2010. We use a long run structural modelling technique for the first time on this market. It provides a practical long-run approach to structural relationships which enable the determination of the effectiveness of the theoretical expectations of these schemes. The generalised forecast error variance decomposition analysis finds that both schemes? emissions prices have little effect on electricity prices. Generalised impulse response function analysis support this finding indicating that when shocks are applied to electricity by the two schemes it returns to equilibrium very quickly. This indicates that these schemes are not having the effect anticipated in their legislation.

Deborah Cotton; Lurion De Mello

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis Skepticism about climate change for other countries. · Skepticism and uncertainty are related but different aspects of climate change perceptions. In the literature, skepticism often relates to whether people believe climate change is happening

Hall, Sharon J.

63

ELECTRICITY FORWARD PRICES: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

P. 2002. Modelling Electricity Prices: Interna- tionalSchwartz, E. 2002. Electricity Prices and Power Derivatives:for the hourly spot electricity prices reported by PJM.

Longstaff, Francis A; Wang, Ashley

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

64

Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

P. 2002. Modelling Electricity Prices: Interna- tionalSchwartz, E. 2002. Electricity Prices and Power Derivatives:for the hourly spot electricity prices reported by PJM.

Longstaff, Francis; Wang, Ashley

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

65

Tariff-based analysis of commercial building electricity prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

4 Calculation of Electricity Prices 4.1 Averageaverage seasonal and annual electricity prices by region inbased annual average electricity price vs. annual energy

Coughlin, Katie M.; Bolduc, Chris A.; Rosenquist, Greg J.; Van Buskirk, Robert D.; McMahon, James E.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

66

Design Feasibility Analysis and Optimization under Uncertainty - A Bayesian  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Design Feasibility Analysis and Optimization under Uncertainty - A Bayesian Design Feasibility Analysis and Optimization under Uncertainty - A Bayesian Optimal Decision Framework Speaker(s): Jose M. Ortega Date: October 7, 2003 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Michael Sohn A new approach to the problem of identifying design feasibility and optimality under uncertainty is introduced. Based on the Bayesian concepts of predictive probability and expected utility, the method can quantify the feasibility of a process design and identify the optimal operation conditions when there are uncertainties in the process parameters. The use of Bayesian statistics enables the treatment of a very wide class of parameter uncertainties, including simple bounds, analytic probability density functions, correlation structures and empirical distributions.

67

Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market index into two groups of countries: oil-importers and oil-exporters. To this end, we propose a new empirical methodology allowing a time-varying dynamic correlation measure between the stock market index and the oil price series. We use the frequency approach proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973), that is the evolutionary co-spectral analysis. This method allows us to distinguish between short-run and medium-run dependence. In order to complete our study by analysing long-run dependence, we use the cointegration procedure developed by Engle and Granger (1987). We find that interdependence between the oil price and the stock market is stronger in exporters? markets than in the importers? ones.

Anna Creti; Zied Ftiti; Khaled Guesmi

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements Sotiris, a probabilistic methodology for assessing urban air quality was proposed. Keywords: Air pollution; Model 535265 1. Introduction Mathematical modelling has been widely used for assessing ambient air quality

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

69

Deconvolution of variability and uncertainty in the Cassini safety analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The standard method for propagation of uncertainty in a risk analysis requires rerunning the risk calculation numerous times with model parameters chosen from their uncertainty distributions. This was not practical for the Cassini nuclear safety analysis, due to the computationally intense nature of the risk calculation. A less computationally intense procedure was developed which requires only two calculations for each accident case. The first of these is the standard 'best-estimate' calculation. In the second calculation, variables and parameters change simultaneously. The mathematical technique of deconvolution is then used to separate out an uncertainty multiplier distribution, which can be used to calculate distribution functions at various levels of confidence.

Kampas, Frank J.; Loughin, Stephen [Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space, P.O. Box 8555, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19101 (United States); WAM Systems, 650 Loraine Street, Ardmore, Pennsylvania 19003 (United States)

1998-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

70

Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Dante is an 18 channel X-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g. hohlraums, etc.) at X-ray energies between 50 eV to 10 keV. It is a main diagnostics installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the X-ray diodes, filters and mirrors and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determined flux using a Monte-Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.

May, M J; Widmann, K; Sorce, C; Park, H; Schneider, M

2010-05-07T23:59:59.000Z

71

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models.

Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

73

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models.

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Grupa, J.B. [Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (Netherlands)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

74

Uncertainty analysis of LBLOCA for Advanced Heavy Water Reactor  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The main objective of safety analysis is to demonstrate in a robust way that all safety requirements are met, i.e. sufficient margins exist between real values of important parameters and their threshold values at which damage of the barriers against release of radioactivity would occur. As stated in the IAEA Safety Requirements for Design of \\{NPPs\\} a safety analysis of the plant design shall be conducted in which methods of both deterministic and probabilistic analysis shall be applied. It is required that the computer programs, analytical methods and plant models used in the safety analysis shall be verified and validated, and adequate consideration shall be given to uncertainties. Uncertainties are present in calculations due to the computer codes, initial and boundary conditions, plant state, fuel parameters, scaling and numerical solution algorithm. All conservative approaches, still widely used, were introduced to cover uncertainties due to limited capability for modelling and understanding of physical phenomena at the early stages of safety analysis. The results obtained by this approach are quite unrealistic and the level of conservatism is not fully known. Another approach is the use of Best Estimate (BE) codes with realistic initial and boundary conditions. If this approach is selected, it should be based on statistically combined uncertainties for plant initial and boundary conditions, assumptions and code models. The current trends are going into direction of the best estimate code with some conservative assumptions of the system with realistic input data with uncertainty analysis. The BE analysis with evaluation of uncertainties offers, in addition, a way to quantify the existing plant safety margins. Its broader use in the future is therefore envisaged, even though it is not always feasible because of the difficulty of quantifying code uncertainties with sufficiently narrow range for every phenomenon and for each accident sequence. In this paper, uncertainty analysis for the Large Break LOCA (200% Inlet Header Break) of Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR) has been carried out. The uncertainty analysis was carried out for the peak cladding temperature (PCT), based on the two different methods i.e., Wilks method and the response surface technique. Their findings have also been compared.

A. Srivastava; H.G. Lele; A.K. Ghosh; H.S. Kushwaha

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

75

Deconvolution of variability and uncertainty in the Cassini safety analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The standard method for propagation of uncertainty in a risk analysis requires rerunning the risk calculation numerous times with model parameters chosen from their uncertainty distributions. This was not practical for the Cassini nuclear safety analysis, due to the computationally intense nature of the risk calculation. A less computationally intense procedure was developed which requires only two calculations for each accident case. The first of these is the standard {open_quotes}best-estimate{close_quotes} calculation. In the second calculation, variables and parameters change simultaneously. The mathematical technique of deconvolution is then used to separate out an uncertainty multiplier distribution, which can be used to calculate distribution functions at various levels of confidence. {copyright} {ital 1998 American Institute of Physics.}

Kampas, F.J. [Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space, P.O. Box 8555, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19101 (United States); Loughin, S. [WAM Systems, 650 Loraine Street, Ardmore, Pennsylvania 19003 (United States)

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

76

Visual Scanning Hartmann Optical Tester (VSHOT) Uncertainty Analysis (Milestone Report)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In 1997, an uncertainty analysis was conducted of the Video Scanning Hartmann Optical Tester (VSHOT). In 2010, we have completed a new analysis, based primarily on the geometric optics of the system, and it shows sensitivities to various design and operational parameters. We discuss sources of error with measuring devices, instrument calibrations, and operator measurements for a parabolic trough mirror panel test. These help to guide the operator in proper setup, and help end-users to understand the data they are provided. We include both the systematic (bias) and random (precision) errors for VSHOT testing and their contributions to the uncertainty. The contributing factors we considered in this study are: target tilt; target face to laser output distance; instrument vertical offset; laser output angle; distance between the tool and the test piece; camera calibration; and laser scanner. These contributing factors were applied to the calculated slope error, focal length, and test article tilt that are generated by the VSHOT data processing. Results show the estimated 2-sigma uncertainty in slope error for a parabolic trough line scan test to be +/-0.2 milliradians; uncertainty in the focal length is +/- 0.1 mm, and the uncertainty in test article tilt is +/- 0.04 milliradians.

Gray, A.; Lewandowski, A.; Wendelin, T.

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

77

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.

Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

78

Observability and Estimation Uncertainty Analysis for PMU Placement Alternatives  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Observability and Estimation Uncertainty Analysis for PMU Placement Alternatives Jinghe Zhang unit (PMU), developed in the 1980s, is considered to be one of the most important devices in the future of power systems. While PMU measurements currently cover fewer than 1% of the nodes in the U.S. power grid

Bishop, Gary

79

Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices in the Euro Area: A Cointegrated VAR Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

prices, we found a wide dispersion of ERPT elasticities, especially between "peripheral" and "core EAExchange Rate and Consumer Prices in the Euro Area: A Cointegrated VAR Analysis Nidhaleddine Ben pass-through (ERPT) into consumer prices for 12 EA countries within a CVAR framework. Using

Recanati, Catherine

80

OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING COUNTRIES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu hal-00822070,version1-14May2013 #12;1 Oil price impact Khaled Guesmi3 Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price

Boyer, Edmond

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

82

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

83

Oil prices and transport sector returns: an international analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examines the role of oil prices in explaining transport sector equity returns ... study are strongly supportive of some role for oil prices in determining the transport sector returns for ... asymmet...

Mohan Nandha; Robert Brooks

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

84

The level crossing analysis of German stock market index (DAX) and daily oil price time series  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The level crossing analysis of DAX and oil price time series are given. We determine the average frequency of positive-slope crossings, $\

Shayeganfar, F; Peinke, J; Tabar, M Reza Rahimi

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Price analysis in electronic marketing of Texas feeder cattle  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

on the impact of. electronic marketing on price in- dicate an average premium of $3. 25 per hundredweight for com- puterized marketing. CA~ may be an efficient marketing system as it appears to increase the level of prices, as well as facilitate spatial... of Cattle Feedlots by Size Group, Texas 1968-79. Page 2. Egg Price Behavior 3. Hog Price Behavior 26 27 4. A Test of Conformity of Variance of Daily Average Price During a Year. 28 5. Transportation Costs 6. CA~ Statistics 7. Auction Market...

Mahoney, Kathleen Ann

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

86

INTEGRATION OF SYSTEM COMPONENTS AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS - HANFORD EXAMPLES  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

{sm_bullet} Deterministic 'One Off' analyses as basis for evaluating sensitivity and uncertainty relative to reference case {sm_bullet} Spatial coverage identical to reference case {sm_bullet} Two types of analysis assumptions - Minimax parameter values around reference case conditions - 'What If' cases that change reference case condition and associated parameter values {sm_bullet} No conclusions about likelihood of estimated result other than' qualitative expectation that actual outcome should tend toward reference case estimate

WOOD MI

2009-07-09T23:59:59.000Z

87

Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Energy Commodity Spot Price Processes.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Supply and demand in the World oil market are balanced through responses to price movement with considerable complexity in the evolution of underlying supply-demand expectation (more)

Otunuga, Olusegun Michael

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

88

Microsoft Word - Price Probabilities Supplement.doc  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 1 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Probabilities of Possible Future Prices 1 EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts. The March 2010 STEO added another set of charts listing the probability of the future realized price exceeding or falling below given price levels (see Figures 1A and 1B for West Texas Intermediate crude oil price probabilities). These charts are also available as spreadsheets allowing users to input their own prices to

89

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

90

Analysis and Reduction of Power Grid Models under Uncertainty Sandia National Laboratories  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

1.30pm Analysis and Reduction of Power Grid Models under Uncertainty Habib Najm Sandia National Laboratories Abstract The increased utilization of alternative energy sources requires that evolving power grid Uncertainty Eigenproblem Closure Analysis and Reduction of Power Grid Models under Uncertainty H.N. Najm

Levi, Anthony F. J.

91

Price regulation for waste hauling franchises in California: an examination of how regulators regulate pricing and the effects of competition on regulated markets  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Thomadakis, Stavros. Price Regulation Under Uncertainty in698. Bs, Dieter. Pricing and Price Regulation. Elsevier.Optimal Structure of Public Prices. The American Economic

Seltzer, Steven A.

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

xi Chapter 1 The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on theLIST OF FIGURES Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Oil priceOil price uncertainty with and without realized

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Asymptotic analysis of utility-based prices and hedging strategies for utilities defined on the  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Asymptotic analysis of utility-based prices and hedging strategies for utilities defined 6th 2009 #12;Outline Optimal investment and utility-based pricing hedging Asymptotic expansions horizon T 3. preferences over terminal wealth described by a utility function U #12;Trading strategies

Sîrbu, Mihai

94

An economic and statistical analysis of pecan prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(shelled basis): Per Capita Consump- tion, Crop Year Average 1950-54 and 1955-59 and 1960-77 Prices and Total Revenues for Various Quantities for a Straight Line Demand Curve With an Average Elasticity of Unity 37 Correlation Matrix of U. S. Improved... = 0. 782 2 d = 1. 62 where X U. S. average farm price of pecans (cents per pound) 1 deflated by the Consumer Price Index (1947-49 = 100); X U. S. net supply of pecans (pounds per capita); X3 = index of per capita disposable income (1947-49 = 100...

Hertel, Karlene Sharon

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

95

Thermal hydraulic limits analysis using statistical propagation of parametric uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The MIT Research Reactor (MITR) is evaluating the conversion from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low enrichment uranium (LEU) fuel. In addition to the fuel element re-design, a reactor power upgraded from 6 MW to 7 MW is proposed in order to maintain the same reactor performance of the HEU core. Previous approach in analyzing the impact of engineering uncertainties on thermal hydraulic limits via the use of engineering hot channel factors (EHCFs) was unable to explicitly quantify the uncertainty and confidence level in reactor parameters. The objective of this study is to develop a methodology for MITR thermal hydraulic limits analysis by statistically combining engineering uncertainties with an aim to eliminate unnecessary conservatism inherent in traditional analyses. This method was employed to analyze the Limiting Safety System Settings (LSSS) for the MITR, which is the avoidance of the onset of nucleate boiling (ONB). Key parameters, such as coolant channel tolerances and heat transfer coefficients, were considered as normal distributions using Oracle Crystal Ball to calculate ONB. The LSSS power is determined with 99.7% confidence level. The LSSS power calculated using this new methodology is 9.1 MW, based on core outlet coolant temperature of 60 deg. C, and primary coolant flow rate of 1800 gpm, compared to 8.3 MW obtained from the analytical method using the EHCFs with same operating conditions. The same methodology was also used to calculate the safety limit (SL) for the MITR, conservatively determined using onset of flow instability (OFI) as the criterion, to verify that adequate safety margin exists between LSSS and SL. The calculated SL is 10.6 MW, which is 1.5 MW higher than LSSS. (authors)

Chiang, K. Y. [Nuclear Science and Engineering Dept., Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Hu, L. W. [Nuclear Reactor Laboratory, Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Forget, B. [Nuclear Science and Engineering Dept., Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

96

Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...

Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.

97

A Time Series Analysis of Food Price and Its Input Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

....................................... 27 4.5 Residual Correlation Matrix of the VECM ................................................ 28 4.6 Decomposition of Forecast Error Variance for Each of Eight Series ........ 40 1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Global food prices have....94 0.50 2.96 4.90 .13 Gasoline 0.79 0.34 0.12 1.41 .43 Corn 1.06 0.43 0.40 1.99 .41 Food CPI 5.28 0.10 5.12 5.45 .02 Ethanol 0.59 0.29 -0.06 1.29 .49 Food PPI 5.03 0.13 4.84 5.28 .03 Fuel PPI 4.98 0.29 4.41 5.59 .06 Dollar Index 4.70 0.09 4.55 4...

Routh, Kari 1988-

2012-11-27T23:59:59.000Z

98

Cassini Spacecraft Uncertainty Analysis Data and Methodology Review and Update/Volume 1: Updated Parameter Uncertainty Models for the Consequence Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty distributions for specific parameters of the Cassini General Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) Final Safety Analysis Report consequence risk analysis were revised and updated. The revisions and updates were done for all consequence parameters for which relevant information exists from the joint project on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of European Communities.

WHEELER, TIMOTHY A.; WYSS, GREGORY D.; HARPER, FREDERICK T.

2000-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

99

2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

Pricing of Australia's coking coal exports: A regional hedonic analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Black coal is Australia's most important export commodity, but the profitability of the domestic coal industry has been low relative to the mining sector average. As a consequence, a key policy issue in Australia has been the extent to which Japan's coal pricing and investment policies have influenced coal market outcomes. In this paper, a regional hedonic pricing model of Australia's coking coal exports is estimated for the period JFY1989 to 1996. Non-Japan regional intercept dummy variables were found to be significantly different from zero, although these varied across coal categories and years. However, the empirical evidence indicates that Japan does not pay significantly lower prices relative to other major export markets for coking coal of a given quality.

Lindsay Hogan; Sally Thorpe; Anthony Swan; Simon Middleton

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

102

Analysis of influence of fuel price on individual activity-travel time expenditure  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Fluctuation in fuel prices may lead to adaptations in people?s activity-travel behavior. Compared to other triggers of behavioral change, the impact of fuel prices has received only scant attention in the literature, especially with respect to short-run change in activity-travel behavior. To gain insight into this issue, travel diaries of a representative sample of individuals in the Netherlands who use the car for daily travel were analyzed. Seemingly unrelated regression analysis was used to examine the effects of fuel price on people?s travel time expenditures for different kinds of activities, differentiating between weekdays and weekends. The results indicate that fuel price is negatively correlated with travel time expenditures by car, and that this relationship differs between weekdays and weekends. When faced with increasing fuel prices, people seem to prefer reducing travel time expenditure by car for compulsory trips more than for leisure trips.

Dujuan Yang; Harry Timmermans

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

103

Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software.

Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

1995-12-08T23:59:59.000Z

104

Analysis on various pricing scenarios in a deregulated electricity market  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

II TEXAS MARKET CONDITIONS.......................................................................25 A. Natural Gas..............................................................................25 III ELECTRICITY PRICING STRUCTURE... ....................................46 A. Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi...............................47 B. Texas A&M University at Galveston......................................55 C. Texas A&M University at Kingsville .....................................61 D. Texas A...

Afanador Delgado, Catalina

2006-10-30T23:59:59.000Z

105

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 1: Main report  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models.

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

106

Price Differences in a Durable Products Secondary Market: A Hedonic Price Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

IrJRoFtino&GIryNiso88mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmBB LNNN PRICE DFN NSEDAUBPENAS A Disertaonby eRoebtrOL oNiieyoJrtH FyoUrM oO soSt Ib sFLaoyFbeu eoOry eoiso FU utomiF sFurLo SS DFyoisoJrtH Fomid torseomtuD oeuyDtuJusrFuisousoFU omtuJrtaoJrtH Fo n h...DrmuFrLoitoF DUsuDrLo .m tFuy odU soDiJmrt eoFios doDrtoe rL tyh kUuL oJrsaorFFtuObF yoiSoby eoebtrOL oJrtH FyYousDLbeusNoFU oby eoDrtoJrtH FYo yFuLLo .uyFoFieraYoFU ousF ts Foy JyoFioUrM oO NbsoFioDUrsN oFU oJrtH FoLrseyDrm hooAuF yo ybDUoryodddh Brah...

Fumasi, Roland J

2013-07-22T23:59:59.000Z

107

An Analysis of Price Determination and Markups in the Air-Conditioning and Heating Equipment Industry  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In this report we calculate the change in final consumer prices due to minimum efficiency standards, focusing on a standard economic model of the air-conditioning and heating equipment (ACHE) wholesale industry. The model examines the relationship between the marginal cost to distribute and sell equipment and the final consumer price in this industry. The model predicts that the impact of a standard on the final consumer price is conditioned by its impact on marginal distribution costs. For example, if a standard raises the marginal cost to distribute and sell equipment a small amount, the model predicts that the standard will raise the final consumer price a small amount as well. Statistical analysis suggest that standards do not increase the amount of labor needed to distribute equipment the same employees needed to sell lower efficiency equipment can sell high efficiency equipment. Labor is a large component of the total marginal cost to distribute and sell air-conditioning and heating equipment. We infer from this that standards have a relatively small impact on ACHE marginal distribution and sale costs. Thus, our model predicts that a standard will have a relatively small impact on final ACHE consumer prices. Our statistical analysis of U.S. Census Bureau wholesale revenue tends to confirm this model prediction. Generalizing, we find that the ratio of manufacturer price to final consumer price prior to a standard tends to exceed the ratio of the change in manufacturer price to the change in final consumer price resulting from a standard. The appendix expands our analysis through a typical distribution chain for commercial and residential air-conditioning and heating equipment.

Dale, Larry; Millstein, Dev; Coughlin, Katie; Van Buskirk, Robert; Rosenquist, Gregory; Lekov, Alex; Bhuyan, Sanjib

2004-01-30T23:59:59.000Z

108

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis to Burnup Estimates on ADS using the ACAB Code  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Within the scope of the Accelerator Driven System (ADS) concept for nuclear waste management applications the burnup uncertainty estimates due to uncertainty in the activation cross sections (XSs) are important regarding both the safety and the efficiency of the waste burning process. We have applied both sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo methodology to actinides burnup calculations in a lead?bismuth cooled subcritical ADS. The sensitivity analysis is used to identify the reaction XSs and the dominant chains that contribute most significantly to the uncertainty. The Monte Carlo methodology gives the burnup uncertainty estimates due to the synergetic/global effect of the complete set of XS uncertainties. These uncertainty estimates are valuable to assess the need of any experimental or systematic re?evaluation of some uncertainty XSs for ADS.

O. Cabellos; J. Sanz; A. Rodrguez; E. Gonzlez; M. Embid; F. Alvarez; S. Reyes

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

109

SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An LED lamp or luminaire can generally be found that matches or exceeds the efficacy of benchmark technologies in a given product category, and LED products continue to expand into ever-higher lumen output niches. However, the price premium for LED continues to pose a barrier to adoption in many applications, in spite of expected savings from reduced energy use and maintenance. Other factorssuch as dimmability and quality of lightcan also present challenges. The appropriate type, timing, and magnitude of energy efficiency activities will vary from organization to organization based on local variables and the method of evaluation. A number of factors merit consideration when prioritizing activities for development. Category-specific projections for pricing and efficacy are provided herein to assist in efficiency program planning efforts.

Tuenge, Jason R.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

110

Uncertainty analysis of river flooding and dam failure risks using local sensitivity computations.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to GUA while requiring only one simulation instead of several hundreds or thousands. For the floodUncertainty analysis of river flooding and dam failure risks using local sensitivity computations) for uncertainty analysis with respect to two major types of risk in river hydrodynamics: flash flood and dam

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

111

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

1997-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

112

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. This development has been supported by a sequence of performance assessments (PAs) carried out by Sandla National Laboratories (SNL) to assess what is known about the WIPP and to provide .tidance for future DOE research and development activities. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures based on Latin hypercube sampling and regression techniques play an important role in these PAs by providing an assessment of the uncertainty in important analysis outcomes and identi~ing the sources of thk uncertainty. Performance assessments for the WIPP are conceptually and computational] y interesting due to regulatory requirements to assess and display the effects of both stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, where stochastic uncertainty arises from the possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period associated with the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arises from an inability to unambi-aously characterize the many models and associated parameters required in a PA for the WIPP. The interplay between uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, stochastic uncertainty and subjective uncertainty are discussed and illustrated in the context of a recent PA carried out by SNL to support an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste.

Helton, J.C.

1998-12-17T23:59:59.000Z

113

Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...

Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

114

Analysis and reduction of chemical models under uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

While models of combustion processes have been successful in developing engines with improved fuel economy, more costly simulations are required to accurately model pollution chemistry. These simulations will also involve significant parametric uncertainties. Computational singular perturbation (CSP) and polynomial chaos-uncertainty quantification (PC-UQ) can be used to mitigate the additional computational cost of modeling combustion with uncertain parameters. PC-UQ was used to interrogate and analyze the Davis-Skodje model, where the deterministic parameter in the model was replaced with an uncertain parameter. In addition, PC-UQ was combined with CSP to explore how model reduction could be combined with uncertainty quantification to understand how reduced models are affected by parametric uncertainty.

Oxberry, Geoff; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

115

Lynn Price  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Lynn Price Lynn Price China Energy Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Road MS 90R2002 Berkeley CA 94720 Office Location: 90-2108 (510) 486-6519 LKPrice@lbl.gov Lynn Price is a Staff Scientist and Leader of the China Energy Group of the Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Department, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Ms. Price has a MS in Environmental Science from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and has worked at LBNL since 1990. Ms. Price has been a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, since 1994 and was an author on the industrial sector chapter of IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report on Mitigation of Climate Change. Since 1999, Ms. Price has provided technical assistance to the Energy

116

Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are reviewed. The following topics are considered: (1) Definition of probability distributions to characterize epistemic uncertainty in analysis inputs, (2) Generation of samples from uncertain analysis inputs, (3) Propagation of sampled inputs through an analysis, (4) Presentation of uncertainty analysis results, and (5) Determination of sensitivity analysis results. Special attention is given to the determination of sensitivity analysis results, with brief descriptions and illustrations given for the following procedures/techniques: examination of scatterplots, correlation analysis, regression analysis, partial correlation analysis, rank transformations, statistical tests for patterns based on gridding, entropy tests for patterns based on gridding, nonparametric regression analysis, squared rank differences/rank correlation coefficient test, two dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, tests for patterns based on distance measures, top down coefficient of concordance, and variance decomposition.

Johnson, Jay Dean; Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric J. PhD. (.; .); Storlie, Curt B. (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO)

2006-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Oil Price Trackers Inspired by Immune Memory William Wilson , Phil Birkin , and Uwe Aickelin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Analysis of oil price trends The price of WTI crude oil (a world marker price for oil price movements

Aickelin, Uwe

118

Determining Price Reasonableness in Federal ESPCs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This document reports the findings and implementation recommendations of the Price Reasonableness Working Group to the Federal ESPC Steering Committee. The working group was formed to address concerns of agencies and oversight organizations related to pricing and fair and reasonable price determination in federal energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs). This report comprises the working group's recommendations and is the proposed draft of a training curriculum on fair and reasonable price determination for users of federal ESPCs. The report includes: (1) A review of federal regulations applicable to determining price reasonableness of federal ESPCs (section 2), (2) Brief descriptions of the techniques described in Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR) 15.404-1 and their applicability to ESPCs (section 3), and (3) Recommended strategies and procedures for cost-effectively completing price reasonableness determinations (sections 4). Agencies have struggled with fair and reasonable price determinations in their ESPCs primarily because this alternative financing vehicle is relatively new and relatively rare in the federal sector. The methods of determining price reasonableness most familiar to federal contracting officers (price competition based on the government's design and specifications, in particular) are generally not applicable to ESPCs. The regulatory requirements for determining price reasonableness in federal ESPCs have also been misunderstood, as federal procurement professionals who are inexperienced with ESPCs are further confused by multiple directives, including Executive Order 13123, which stresses life-cycle cost-effectiveness. Uncertainty about applicable regulations and inconsistent practice and documentation among agencies have fueled claims that price reasonableness determinations have not been sufficiently rigorous in federal ESPCs or that the prices paid in ESPCs are generally higher than the prices paid for similar goods and services obtained through conventional procurements. While claims of excessive prices are largely unsubstantiated and based on anecdotal evidence, the perception that there is a problem is shared by many in the ESPC community and has been noted by auditors and oversight organizations. The Price Reasonableness Working Group determined that a more formal emphasis on FAR 15.404-1 in the ESPC process could remove much of the doubt about price reasonableness determinations. The working group's recommended consensus policy on price reasonableness stresses the price analysis techniques described in the FAR that are applicable to ESPCs and includes guidance for agencies use of these techniques in determining price reasonableness for their ESPC delivery orders. The recommended policy and guidance, if communicated to federal ESPC stakeholders, can ensure that agencies will comply with the FAR in awarding ESPCs, obtain fair and reasonable prices and best value for the government, and follow procedures that provide auditable documentation of due diligence in price reasonableness determinations.

Shonder, J.A.

2005-03-08T23:59:59.000Z

119

Modified Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for Uncertainty Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper describes a methodology of characterizing important phenomena, which is also part of a broader research by the authors called 'Modified PIRT'. The methodology provides robust process of phenomena identification and ranking process for more precise quantification of uncertainty. It is a two-step process of identifying and ranking methodology based on thermal-hydraulics (TH) importance as well as uncertainty importance. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) has been used for as a formal approach for TH identification and ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the TH model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. This part uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions. The proposed methodology was demonstrated by developing a PIRT for large break loss of coolant accident LBLOCA for the LOFT integral facility with highest core power (test LB-1). (authors)

Gol-Mohamad, Mohammad P.; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Household Appliances  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

the Price Elasticity of Demand for Household Appliances the Price Elasticity of Demand for Household Appliances Title An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Household Appliances Publication Type Report LBNL Report Number LBNL-326E Year of Publication 2008 Authors Dale, Larry L., and Sydny K. Fujita Document Number LBNL-326E Pagination 19 Date Published 02/2008 Publisher Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory City Berkeley Abstract This article summarizes our study of the price elasticity of demand1 for home appliances, including refrigerators, clothes washers and dishwashers. In the context of increasingly stringent appliance standards, we are interested in what kind of impact the increased manufacturing costs caused by higher efficiency requirements will have on appliance sales. We chose to study this particular set of appliances because data for the elasticity calculation was more readily available for refrigerators, clothes washers, and dishwashers than for other appliances. We begin with a review of the existing economics literature describing the impact of economic variables on the sale of durable goods. We then describe the market for home appliances and changes in it over the past 20 years. We conclude with summary and interpretation of the results of our regression analysis and present estimates of the price elasticity of demand for the three appliances.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Uncertainty Analysis of Heliostat Alignment at the Sandia Solar Field  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Low-cost heliostats with open-loop tracking systems require careful calibration in order to track the sun accurately. This calibration can be done by mechanical adjustment, which increases the cost of both the components and commissioning, or it can be done automatically, using software, by learning the various forms of misalignment present in a particular heliostat, and adjusting the pointing directions in order to cancel out the effect of those misalignments. A large set of training data will allow these corrections to be determined to quite high accuracy, and several of low-cost heliostat concepts have already been developed which make use of some form of this principle to reduce overall CSP system cost, though the methods used have not been thoroughly described in open literature. The current study builds upon earlier work by Baheti and Scott (1980), Khalsa et al (2011) and Pye and Zhang (2012), to analyze the process of automated misalignment correction with the introduction of an uncertainty analysis applied to an experimental training data set. The accuracy of correction process from this experimental data is quantified, allowing a criterion to be applied to determine whether or not sufficient training has been completed for each heliostat to mean overall field accuracy requirements. To investigate the potential improvements from extended training, a synthetic data set is generated, and used to investigate preferred times of year and times of data for training specific heliostats in the field. Summer data is shown to be best, but the additional of some winter data is helpful. Time-of-day is also important, especially for the sides of the heliostat field; middle-of- the-day training and spring or autumn training are seen to be less effective. A training programme for the entire heliostat field is presented and discussed: each heliostat is trained daily in summer for two minutes, and daily in winter for one minute in the morning and evening, resulting in 95% certainty that all heliostats will have their focal spot within 1.5 m of the target for the entire year, by an entirely automated process.

Rachel Hogan; John Pye; Clifford Ho; Edward Smith

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

122

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of biokinetic models for radiopharmaceuticals used in nuclear medicine  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......who undergo the diagnosis in nuclear medicine. Table-2. The...radiopharmaceuticals used in nuclear medicine. As an example...1976) New York: Society of Nuclear Medicine. MIRD pamphlet no...Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. (1990) New York......

W. B. Li; C. Hoeschen

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

123

Coupled differential and integral data analysis for improved uncertainty quantification of the ?,??Cu cross section evaluations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A new methodology has been developed that couples differential cross section data evaluation with integral benchmark analysis for improved uncertainty quantification. The new methodology was applied to the two new copper ...

Sobes, Vladimir

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

124

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis- 2012  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Report provides tables of present-value factors for use in the life-cycle cost analysis of capital investment projects for federal facilities. It also provides energy price indices based on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts from 2012 to 2042.

125

Fossil fuel prices, exchange rate, and stock market: A dynamic causality analysis on the European market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The article investigates causality between fossil fuel prices, exchange rates and the German Stock Index (DAX). The analysis is conducted dynamically with the use of rolling VAR methodology on the basis of weekly data from the period October 2001June 2012. The results obtained show that the relationship between the variables changed over time depending on the level of volatility in financial markets.

S?awomir ?miech; Monika Papie?

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

Performance Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Japan's HLW Program Feasibility Study (H12)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Most HLW programs in the world recognize that any estimate of long-term radiological performance must be couched in terms of the uncertainties derived from natural variation, changes through time and lack of knowledge about the essential processes. The Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute followed a relatively standard procedure to address two major categories of uncertainty. First, a FEatures, Events and Processes (FEPs) listing, screening and grouping activity was pursued in order to define the range of uncertainty in system processes as well as possible variations in engineering design. A reference and many alternative cases representing various groups of FEPs were defined and individual numerical simulations performed for each to quantify the range of conceptual uncertainty. Second, parameter distributions were developed for the reference case to represent the uncertainty in the strength of these processes, the sequencing of activities and geometric variations. Both point estimates using high and low values for individual parameters as well as a probabilistic analysis were performed to estimate parameter uncertainty. A brief description of the conceptual model uncertainty analysis is presented. This paper focuses on presenting the details of the probabilistic parameter uncertainty assessment.

BABA,T.; ISHIGURO,K.; ISHIHARA,Y.; SAWADA,A.; UMEKI,H.; WAKASUGI,K.; WEBB,ERIK K.

1999-08-30T23:59:59.000Z

127

Uncertainty analysis of densities and isotopics: Handling correlations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper discusses two cases of correlated parameters in uncertainty analyses: (1) the case of measured mass, density, and volume or spatial dimension correlations; and (2) the case of measured material isotopics, where increasing one atom fraction must cause the others to decrease. In the first case, an equation is derived that has a term due to uncertain density, a term due to uncertain dimensions, and a term due to the correlation between density and dimensions. In a numerical test problem, this equation gives the same result as the standard equation that treats mass and dimensions independently. In the case of isotopics, an equation is derived relating the uncertainty due to uncertain isotopic fractions to the sensitivities to isotopic densities, which are easier to calculate. The equation is verified in a test problem. (authors)

Favorite, J. A.; Armstrong, J. C. [X-Computational Physics Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Burr, T. [Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States)

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

128

Prices and Price Setting.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??abstractThis thesis studies price data and tries to unravel the underlying economic processes of why firms have chosen these prices. It focuses on three aspects (more)

R.P. Faber (Riemer)

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

129

Cost analysis of air cargo transport and effects of fluctuations in fuel price  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This study developed a model with cost functions formulated for different stages of cargo transport operation. A case analysis was performed with actual data from four air cargo traffic routes and eight aircraft types to validate the applicability of the model. The results show that the optimal payloads for various aircraft types vary with fuel price fluctuations. Furthermore, this study determined optimal types of freighter aircraft for different routes. Freight rates increase with rises in fuel price due to the corresponding increase in the fuel surcharge, thus bringing in higher total revenue. When the increase in total revenue exceeds the rise in fuel cost, the optimal payload will drop. Not only can the cost functions reveal the impact of fuel price fluctuations on different aspects of air cargo transport, they can also assist airlines in selecting the aircraft type with the best fuel economy for different route distances and cargo volumes.

Ching-Cheng Chao; Ching-Wen Hsu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

130

Price optimisation using business risk analysis and game theory  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

We have developed a new approach to supporting business decisions that can be used to evaluate the risks inherent in the competitive environment. We have shown that the results of business risk analysis can be used for building a game theory model. By using risk analysis and game theory together, we were able to take into account the expected behaviour of the competitors and the interrelations among them. We present a case study in the Hungarian telecommunications sector to show how the result of the risk analysis of the net cost of a given product can be built into a game theory model.

Rozalia Konkoly; Istvan Fekete

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Shifting demand or just moving price?: A multi-level analysis of student price demand for college education and state policy preferences  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

education: Enrollment, prices, student aid and outcomes,D. E. (1997). Student price response in higher education: AnP. T. (1987). Student price response in higher education:

Okahana, Hironao

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

A Study on Uncertainty Analysis of Safety Systems of Advanced Heavy Water Reactor using Fuzzy Set Theory  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Inherent to any reliability calculation is a degree of uncertainty in ... ) are also being used in the risk analysis for quantifying the basic event uncertainty and ... of probabilistic and fuzzy methodologies fo...

Rao K. Durga; V. Gopika; M. H. Prasad

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS WORKSHOP SUMMARY REPORT  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Stochastic or probabilistic modeling approaches are being applied more frequently in the United States and globally to quantify uncertainty and enhance understanding of model response in performance assessments for disposal of radioactive waste. This increased use has resulted in global interest in sharing results of research and applied studies that have been completed to date. This technical report reflects the results of a workshop that was held to share results of research and applied work related to performance assessments conducted at United States Department of Energy sites. Key findings of this research and applied work are discussed and recommendations for future activities are provided.

Seitz, R

2008-06-25T23:59:59.000Z

134

Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This effort was a collaboration with Youssef Marzouk of MIT, Omar Knio of Duke University (at the time at Johns Hopkins University) and Habib Najm of Sandia National Laboratories. The objective of this effort was to develop the mathematical and algorithmic capacity to analyze complex networks under uncertainty. Of interest were chemical reaction networks and smart grid networks. The statements of work for USC focused on the development of stochastic reduced models for uncertain networks. The USC team was led by Professor Roger Ghanem and consisted of one graduate student and a postdoc. The contributions completed by the USC team consisted of 1) methodology and algorithms to address the eigenvalue problem, a problem of significance in the stability of networks under stochastic perturbations, 2) methodology and algorithms to characterize probability measures on graph structures with random flows. This is an important problem in characterizing random demand (encountered in smart grid) and random degradation (encountered in infrastructure systems), as well as modeling errors in Markov Chains (with ubiquitous relevance !). 3) methodology and algorithms for treating inequalities in uncertain systems. This is an important problem in the context of models for material failure and network flows under uncertainty where conditions of failure or flow are described in the form of inequalities between the state variables.

Ghanem, Roger G [University of Southern California

2014-07-31T23:59:59.000Z

135

An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Household Appliances  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Household Appliances Larry Dale and K. Sydny Fujita February 2008 Energy Analysis Department Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory University of California Berkeley, CA 94720 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. While this document is believed to contain correct information, neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor The Regents of the University of California, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not

136

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2010  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

5 5 (Rev. 5/10) Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2010 Annual Supplement to Amy S. Rushing NIST Handbook 135 and Joshua D. Kneifel NBS Special Publication 709 Barbara C. Lippiatt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Technology Administration National Institute of Standards and Technology Prepared for United States Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program April 2005 May 2010 ENERGY PRICE INDICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709 April 1, 2010 to March 31, 2011 Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A; and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings,

137

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2011  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

April 2005 April 2005 NISTIR 85-3273-26 (Rev. 9/11) Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2011 Annual Supplement to Amy S. Rushing NIST Handbook 135 and Joshua D. Kneifel NBS Special Publication 709 Barbara C. Lippiatt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Technology Administration National Institute of Standards and Technology Prepared for United States Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program September 2011 NISTIR 85-3273-26 ENERGY PRICE INDICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709 April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012 Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A; and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings,

138

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION UNDER CATASTROPHIC RISK AND PRICE UNCERTAINTY IN KENTUCKY.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Internalizing carbon value for forest landowners has the potential to increase carbon supply in forest and mitigate CO2 in the atmosphere. In this study, we (more)

Hu, Lijiao

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Uncertainty Analysis Framework - Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Flow and Transport Model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) embarked on a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of the predictions being made with a site-wide groundwater flow and transport model at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. In FY 2000, the focus of the initiative was on the characterization of major uncertainties in the current conceptual model that would affect model predictions. The long-term goals of the initiative are the development and implementation of an uncertainty estimation methodology in future assessments and analyses using the site-wide model. This report focuses on the development and implementation of an uncertainty analysis framework.

Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Murray, Christopher J.; Thorne, Paul D.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Rogers, Phillip M.

2001-11-09T23:59:59.000Z

140

Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over This article extends the understanding of oil­stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade. Unlike returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector. In the out

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Using Decline Curve Analysis, Volumetric Analysis, and Bayesian Methodology to Quantify Uncertainty in Shale Gas Reserve Estimates  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Probabilistic decline curve analysis (PDCA) methods have been developed to quantify uncertainty in production forecasts and reserves estimates. However, the application of PDCA in shale gas reservoirs is relatively new. Limited work has been done...

Gonzalez Jimenez, Raul 1988-

2012-11-30T23:59:59.000Z

142

Uncertainty analysis for probabilistic pipe fracture evaluations in LBB applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

During the NRC`s Short Cracks in Piping and Piping Welds Program at Battelle, a probabilistic methodology was developed to conduct fracture evaluations of circumferentially cracked pipes for application to leak-rate detection. Later, in the IPIRG-2 program, several parameters that may affect leak-before-break and other pipe flaw evaluations were identified. This paper presents new results from several uncertainty analyses to evaluate the effects of normal operating stresses, normal plus safe-shutdown earthquake stresses, off-centered cracks, restraint of pressure-induced bending, and dynamic and cyclic loading rates on the conditional failure probability of pipes. systems in BWR and PWR. For each parameter, the sensitivity to conditional probability of failure and hence, its importance on probabilistic leak-before-break evaluations were determined.

Rahman, S.; Ghadiali, N.; Wilkowski, G.

1997-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

Regional price targets appropriate for advanced coal extraction. [Forecasting to 1985 and 2000; USA; Regional analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The object of the study is to provide a methodology for predicting coal prices in regional markets for the target time frames 1985 and 2000 that could subsequently be used to guide the development of an advanced coal extraction system. The model constructed for the study is a supply and demand model that focuses on underground mining, since the advanced technology is expected to be developed for these reserves by the target years. The supply side of the model is based on coal reserve data generated by Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA). Given this data and the cost of operating a mine (data from US Department of Energy and Bureau of Mines), the Minimum Acceptable Selling Price (MASP) is obtained. The MASP is defined as the smallest price that would induce the producer to bring the mine into production, and is sensitive to the current technology and to assumptions concerning miner productivity. Based on this information, market supply curves can then be generated. On the demand side of the model, demand by region is calculated based on an EEA methodology that emphasizes demand by electric utilities and demand by industry. The demand and supply curves are then used to obtain the price targets. This last step is accomplished by allocating the demands among the suppliers so that the combined cost of producing and transporting coal is minimized.

Terasawa, K.L.; Whipple, D.W.

1980-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis-2013  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

8 8 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2013 Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709 Amy S. Rushing Joshua D. Kneifel Barbara C. Lippiatt http://dx.doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.85-3273-28 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Technology Administration National Institute of Standards and Technology Prepared for United States Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program April 2005 NISTIR 85-3273-28 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2013 Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709 Amy S. Rushing Joshua D. Kneifel Barbara C. Lippiatt Applied Economics Office Engineering Laboratory http://dx.doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.85-3273-28

145

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2012  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

7 7 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2012 Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709 Amy S. Rushing Joshua D. Kneifel Barbara C. Lippiatt http://dx.doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.85-3273-27 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Technology Administration National Institute of Standards and Technology Prepared for United States Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program April 2005 NISTIR 85-3273-27 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2012 Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709 Amy S. Rushing Joshua D. Kneifel Barbara C. Lippiatt Applied Economics Office Engineering Laboratory http://dx.doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.85-3273-27

146

Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A multi-rate expression for uranyl [U(VI)] surface complexation reactions has been proposed to describe diffusion-limited U(VI) sorption/desorption in heterogeneous subsurface sediments. An important assumption in the rate expression is that its rate constants follow a certain type probability distribution. In this paper, a Bayes-based, Differential Evolution Markov Chain method was used to assess the distribution assumption and to analyze parameter and model structure uncertainties. U(VI) desorption from a contaminated sediment at the US Hanford 300 Area, Washington was used as an example for detail analysis. The results indicated that: 1) the rate constants in the multi-rate expression contain uneven uncertainties with slower rate constants having relative larger uncertainties; 2) the lognormal distribution is an effective assumption for the rate constants in the multi-rate model to simualte U(VI) desorption; 3) however, long-term prediction and its uncertainty may be significantly biased by the lognormal assumption for the smaller rate constants; and 4) both parameter and model structure uncertainties can affect the extrapolation of the multi-rate model with a larger uncertainty from the model structure. The results provide important insights into the factors contributing to the uncertainties of the multi-rate expression commonly used to describe the diffusion or mixing-limited sorption/desorption of both organic and inorganic contaminants in subsurface sediments.

Zhang, Xiaoying; Liu, Chongxuan; Hu, Bill X.; Zhang, Guannan

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

An Analysis of the Effects of Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in California  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Energy Markets and Policy Group * Energy Analysis Department Energy Markets and Policy Group * Energy Analysis Department An Analysis of the Effects of Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in California Ben Hoen, Peter Cappers, Mark Thayer, Ryan Wiser Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LBNL Webinar June 9 th , 2011 This work was supported by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (Solar Energy Technologies Program) of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231, by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under Contract No. DEK-8883050, and by the Clean Energy States Alliance.

149

Analysis of uncertainties in CRAC2 calculations: the inhalation pathway  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

CRAC2 is a computer code for estimating the health effects and economic costs that might result from a release of radioactivity from a nuclear reactor to the environment. This paper describes tests of sensitivity of the predicted health effects to uncertainties in parameters associated with inhalation of the released radionuclides. These parameters are the particle size of the carrier aerosol and, for each element in the release, the clearance parameters for the lung model on which the code's dose conversion factors for inhalation are based. CRAC2 uses hourly meteorological data and a straight-line Gaussian plume model to predict the transport of airborne radioactivity; it includes models for plume depletion and population evacuation, and data for the distributions of population and land use. The code can compute results for single weather sequences, or it can perform random sampling of weather sequences from the meteorological data file and compute results for each weather sequence in the sample. For the work described in this paper, we concentrated on three fixed weather sequences that represent a range of conditions. For each fixed weather sequence, we applied random sampling to joint distributions of the inhalation parameters in order to estimate the sensitivity of the predicted health effects. All sampling runs produced coefficients of variation that were less than 50%, but some differences of means between weather sequences were substantial, as were some differences between means and the corresponding CRAC2 results without random sampling. Early injuries showed differences of as much as 1 to 2 orders of magnitude, while the differences in early fatalities were less than a factor of 2. Latent cancer fatalities varied by less than 10%. 19 references, 6 figures, 3 tables.

Killough, G.G.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.

1984-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

150

The price of electricity from private power producers: Stage 2, Expansion of sample and preliminary statistical analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The market for long-term bulk power is becoming increasingly competitive and mature. Given that many privately developed power projects have been or are being developed in the US, it is possible to begin to evaluate the performance of the market by analyzing its revealed prices. Using a consistent method, this paper presents levelized contract prices for a sample of privately developed US generation properties. The sample includes 26 projects with a total capacity of 6,354 MW. Contracts are described in terms of their choice of technology, choice of fuel, treatment of fuel price risk, geographic location, dispatchability, expected dispatch niche, and size. The contract price analysis shows that gas technologies clearly stand out as the most attractive. At an 80% capacity factor, coal projects have an average 20-year levelized price of $0.092/kWh, whereas natural gas combined cycle and/or cogeneration projects have an average price of $0.069/kWh. Within each technology type subsample, however, there is considerable variation. Prices for natural gas combustion turbines and one wind project are also presented. A preliminary statistical analysis is conducted to understand the relationship between price and four categories of explanatory factors including product heterogeneity, geographic heterogeneity, economic and technological change, and other buyer attributes (including avoided costs). Because of residual price variation, we are unable to accept the hypothesis that electricity is a homogeneous product. Instead, the analysis indicates that buyer value still plays an important role in the determination of price for competitively-acquired electricity.

Comnes, G.A.; Belden, T.N.; Kahn, E.P.

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

151

Microdata analysis of price setting behaviour and macrodata analysis of heterogeneous DSGE models .  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis investigates nominal frictions in price setting behaviour from both microe-conometric and macroeconometric perspectives. Chapter I and II use the unpublished retailer-level and producer-level (more)

Zhou, Peng

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

152

Incorporating uncertainty in the Life Cycle Cost Analysis of pavements  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is an important tool to evaluate the economic performance of alternative investments for a given project. It considers the total cost to construct, maintain, and operate a pavement over its ...

Swei, Omar Abdullah

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

153

Uncertainty Analysis for a Virtual Flow Meter Using an Air-Handling Unit Chilled Water Valve  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A virtual water flow meter is developed that uses the chilled water control valve on an air-handling unit as a measurement device. The flow rate of water through the valve is calculated using the differential pressure across the valve and its associated coil, the valve command, and an empirically determined valve characteristic curve. Thus, the probability of error in the measurements is significantly greater than for conventionally manufactured flow meters. In this paper, mathematical models are developed and used to conduct uncertainty analysis for the virtual flow meter, and the results from the virtual meter are compared to measurements made with an ultrasonic flow meter. Theoretical uncertainty analysis shows that the total uncertainty in flow rates from the virtual flow meter is 1.46% with 95% confidence; comparison of virtual flow meter results with measurements from an ultrasonic flow meter yielded anuncertainty of 1.46% with 99% confidence. The comparable results from the theoretical uncertainty analysis and empirical comparison with the ultrasonic flow meter corroborate each other, and tend to validate the approach to computationally estimating uncertainty for virtual sensors introduced in this study.

Song, Li; Wang, Gang; Brambley, Michael R.

2013-04-28T23:59:59.000Z

154

Use of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in reactor design verification Part II: Flux measurement analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract As for any new reactor design, the ACR-1000 design has to go through a comprehensive design verification process. One of the activities for supporting the ACR physics design calculations using the ACR physics code toolset, namely WIMS-AECL/DRAGON/RFSP, is to compare the flux distributions resulting from the calculation using this toolset at various power calibration monitor (PCM) detector locations against the flux measurement data from the Japanese Advanced Thermal Reactor (ATR) FUGEN. The discussion of this particular design verification exercise will be presented in a two-part paper. The usage of data from the FUGEN reactor qualifies this exercise as design verification by alternate analysis. In order to have meaningful results at the end of the design verification process, the similarity between the ACR-1000 and FUGEN reactors has to be demonstrated. It is accomplished through the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the TSUNAMI (Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation) methodology. The results from the similarity comparison have been presented in Part I of the paper. In Part II, results from flux distribution comparison will be presented. Favourable results from this design verification exercise give a high level of confidence that using the same physics toolset in calculating the flux distribution for ACR-1000 reactor will produce results with acceptable fidelity. In addition, the results will also give an indication of expected margins in the design calculations, not only at the locations of the PCM detectors but also at the derived bundle and channel powers obtained through the flux mapping calculation.

Doddy Kastanya; Mohamed Dahmani

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

AEP Ohio gridSMART Demonstration Project Real-Time Pricing Demonstration Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report contributes initial findings from an analysis of significant aspects of the gridSMART Real-Time Pricing (RTP) Double Auction demonstration project. Over the course of four years, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) worked with American Electric Power (AEP), Ohio and Battelle Memorial Institute to design, build, and operate an innovative system to engage residential consumers and their end-use resources in a participatory approach to electric system operations, an incentive-based approach that has the promise of providing greater efficiency under normal operating conditions and greater flexibility to react under situations of system stress. The material contained in this report supplements the findings documented by AEP Ohio in the main body of the gridSMART report. It delves into three main areas: impacts on system operations, impacts on households, and observations about the sensitivity of load to price changes.

Widergren, Steven E.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Fuller, Jason C.; Chassin, David P.; Somani, Abhishek; Marinovici, Maria C.; Hammerstrom, Janelle L.

2014-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

156

Uncertainty analysis of doses from ingestion of plutonium and americium  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

......of Internal Emitters (2004) Health Protection Agency, CRCE. ISBN...ingestion of 131I, 137Cs and 90Sr. Health Phys. (2004) 86:460-482...analysis of doses from inhalation of depleted uranium. Health Phys. (2008) 95(3):300-309......

M. Puncher; J. D. Harrison

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

157

DRAFT DO NOT QUOTE Energy Prices and Energy Intensity in China: A Structural Decomposition Analysis and Econometrics Study  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has declined dramatically, by about 70%, in spite of increases in energy consumption. Is this just a coincidence? Or does a systematic relationship exist between energy prices and energy intensity? In this study, we examine whether and how Chinas energy price changes affect its energy intensity trend during 1980-2002 at a macro level. We conduct the research by using two complementary economic models: the input-output-based structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and econometric regression models and by using a decomposition method of own-price elasticity of energy intensity. Findings include a negative own-price elasticity of energy intensity, a price-inducement effect on energyefficiency improvement, and a greater sensitivity (in terms of the reaction of energy intensity towards changes in energy prices) of the industry sector, compared to the overall economy. Analysts can use these results as a starting point for China's energy and carbon

Xiaoyu Shi; Karen R. Polenske; Xiaoyu Shi; Karen R. Polenske

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

158

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of fission gas behavior in engineering-scale fuel modeling  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The role of uncertainties in fission gas behavior calculations as part of engineering-scale nuclear fuel modeling is investigated using the BISON fuel performance code and a recently implemented physics-based model for the coupled fission gas release and swelling. Through the integration of BISON with the DAKOTA software, a sensitivity analysis of the results to selected model parameters is carried out based on UO2 single-pellet simulations covering different power regimes. The parameters are varied within ranges representative of the relative uncertainties and consistent with the information from the open literature. The study leads to an initial quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in fission gas behavior modeling with the parameter characterization presently available. Also, the relative importance of the single parameters is evaluated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on simulations of a fuel rod irradiation experiment, pointing out a significant impact of the considered uncertainties on the calculated fission gas release and cladding diametral strain. The results of the study indicate that the commonly accepted deviation between calculated and measured fission gas release by a factor of 2 approximately corresponds to the inherent modeling uncertainty at high fission gas release. Nevertheless, higher deviations may be expected for values around 10% and lower. Implications are discussed in terms of directions of research for the improved modeling of fission gas behavior for engineering purposes.

G. Pastore; L.P. Swiler; J.D. Hales; S.R. Novascone; D.M. Perez; B.W. Spencer; L. Luzzi; P. Van Uffelen; R.L. Williamson

2014-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

159

Implementation of a Bayesian Engine for Uncertainty Analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

In probabilistic risk assessment, it is important to have an environment where analysts have access to a shared and secured high performance computing and a statistical analysis tool package. As part of the advanced small modular reactor probabilistic risk analysis framework implementation, we have identified the need for advanced Bayesian computations. However, in order to make this technology available to non-specialists, there is also a need of a simplified tool that allows users to author models and evaluate them within this framework. As a proof-of-concept, we have implemented an advanced open source Bayesian inference tool, OpenBUGS, within the browser-based cloud risk analysis framework that is under development at the Idaho National Laboratory. This development, the OpenBUGS Scripter has been implemented as a client side, visual web-based and integrated development environment for creating OpenBUGS language scripts. It depends on the shared server environment to execute the generated scripts and to transmit results back to the user. The visual models are in the form of linked diagrams, from which we automatically create the applicable OpenBUGS script that matches the diagram. These diagrams can be saved locally or stored on the server environment to be shared with other users.

Leng Vang; Curtis Smith; Steven Prescott

2014-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

of evidence theory, the hybrid propagation approach is introduced. A demonstration is given on a DG system enables end-users to install renewable generators (e.g. solar generators and wind turbines) on1 Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System Yanfu Li

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

Bayes Linear Uncertainty Analysis for Oil Reservoirs Based on Multiscale Computer Experiments  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bayes Linear Uncertainty Analysis for Oil Reservoirs Based on Multiscale Computer Experiments, 2008 1 Introduction Reservoir simulators are important and widely-used tools for oil reservoir for reservoirs, where the model inputs are physical parameters, such as the permeability and porosity of various

Oakley, Jeremy

162

Life cycle cost analysis of wind power considering stochastic uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper presents a long-term cost analysis of wind power and compares its competitiveness to non-renewable generating technologies. The analysis considers several important attributes related to wind intermittency that are sometimes ignored in traditional generation planning or LCOE (levelized cost of energy) studies, including the need for more nameplate capacity due to intermittency, hourly fluctuations in wind outputs and cost for reserves. The competitiveness of wind power is assessed by evaluating four scenarios: 1) adding natural gas generating capacity to the power grid; 2) adding coal generating capacity to the power grid; 3) adding wind capacity to the power grid; and, 4) adding wind capacity and energy storage to the power grid where an energy storage device is used to cover wind intermittency. A case study in the state of Michigan is presented to demonstrate the use of the proposed methodology, in which a time horizon from 2010 to 2040 is considered. The results show that wind energy will still be more expensive than natural gas power plants in the next three decades, but will be cheaper than coal capacities if wind intermittency is mitigated. Furthermore, if the costs of carbon emissions and environmental externalities are considered, wind generation will be a competitive option for grid capacity expansion.

Chiao-Ting Li; Huei Peng; Jing Sun

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

163

Price determination for breeding bulls  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

prices had none. One the average, bull prices were egual to the value of five 425 pound feeder calves. Hesults of the second analysis indicated that the consignor (apparently ~ his reputation as a ~) had the most influence cn the price of individual... of Feeder Cattle Prices an Average ~ RegiEt8t%6 Hereford Bull Prices, 1952-83, U. S. N~ Prices Deflated by Consuser Price Index, 1967 = 100. Distributed Zag of Annual Nst Farm Income and Annual ~ Prices on Registered Hereford Bull Prices, 195283, U. S...

Namken, Jerry Carl

2012-06-07T23:59:59.000Z

164

Adjoint-Based Implicit Uncertainty Analysis for Figures of Merit in a Laser Inertial Fusion Engine  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A primary purpose of computational models is to inform design decisions and, in order to make those decisions reliably, the confidence in the results of such models must be estimated. Monte Carlo neutron transport models are common tools for reactor designers. These types of models contain several sources of uncertainty that propagate onto the model predictions. Two uncertainties worthy of note are (1) experimental and evaluation uncertainties of nuclear data that inform all neutron transport models and (2) statistical counting precision, which all results of a Monte Carlo codes contain. Adjoint-based implicit uncertainty analyses allow for the consideration of any number of uncertain input quantities and their effects upon the confidence of figures of merit with only a handful of forward and adjoint transport calculations. When considering a rich set of uncertain inputs, adjoint-based methods remain hundreds of times more computationally efficient than Direct Monte-Carlo methods. The LIFE (Laser Inertial Fusion Energy) engine is a concept being developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Various options exist for the LIFE blanket, depending on the mission of the design. The depleted uranium hybrid LIFE blanket design strives to close the fission fuel cycle without enrichment or reprocessing, while simultaneously achieving high discharge burnups with reduced proliferation concerns. Neutron transport results that are central to the operation of the design are tritium production for fusion fuel, fission of fissile isotopes for energy multiplication, and production of fissile isotopes for sustained power. In previous work, explicit cross-sectional uncertainty analyses were performed for reaction rates related to the figures of merit for the depleted uranium hybrid LIFE blanket. Counting precision was also quantified for both the figures of merit themselves and the cross-sectional uncertainty estimates to gauge the validity of the analysis. All cross-sectional uncertainties were small (0.1-0.8%), bounded counting uncertainties, and were precise with regard to counting precision. Adjoint/importance distributions were generated for the same reaction rates. The current work leverages those adjoint distributions to transition from explicit sensitivities, in which the neutron flux is constrained, to implicit sensitivities, in which the neutron flux responds to input perturbations. This treatment vastly expands the set of data that contribute to uncertainties to produce larger, more physically accurate uncertainty estimates.

Seifried, J E; Fratoni, M; Kramer, K J; Latkowski, J F; Peterson, P F; Powers, J J; Taylor, J M

2010-12-03T23:59:59.000Z

165

SWEPP PAN assay system uncertainty analysis: Active mode measurements of solidified aqueous sludge waste  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory is being used as a temporary storage facility for transuranic waste generated by the US Nuclear Weapons program at the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) in Golden, Colorado. Currently, there is a large effort in progress to prepare to ship this waste to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in Carlsbad, New Mexico. In order to meet the TRU Waste Characterization Quality Assurance Program Plan nondestructive assay compliance requirements and quality assurance objectives, it is necessary to determine the total uncertainty of the radioassay results produced by the Stored Waste Examination Pilot Plant (SWEPP) Passive Active Neutron (PAN) radioassay system. This paper is one of a series of reports quantifying the results of the uncertainty analysis of the PAN system measurements for specific waste types and measurement modes. In particular this report covers active mode measurements of weapons grade plutonium-contaminated aqueous sludge waste contained in 208 liter drums (item description codes 1, 2, 7, 800, 803, and 807). Results of the uncertainty analysis for PAN active mode measurements of aqueous sludge indicate that a bias correction multiplier of 1.55 should be applied to the PAN aqueous sludge measurements. With the bias correction, the uncertainty bounds on the expected bias are 0 {+-} 27%. These bounds meet the Quality Assurance Program Plan requirements for radioassay systems.

Blackwood, L.G.; Harker, Y.D.; Meachum, T.R.

1997-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

166

Single-Product Pricing via Robust Optimization  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

manufacturing to fashion retail. Applying probabilistic ... In Section 2, we develop the robust pricing model in the presence of additive uncertainty. We analyze.

2006-01-30T23:59:59.000Z

167

Average Commercial Price  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

Pipeline and Distribution Use Price Citygate Price Residential Price Commercial Price Industrial Price Vehicle Fuel Price Electric Power Price Proved Reserves as of 1231 Reserves...

168

Energy prices and energy intensity in China : a structural decomposition analysis and econometric study  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., physical energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product ...

Shi, Xiaoyu, M.C.P. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

169

Competition and price asymmetries in the Greek oil sector: an empirical analysis on gasoline market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This article attempts to investigate the issue of asymmetries in the transmission of shocks to input prices and exchange rate onto the wholesale and retail price of gasoline respectively. For this purpose, we ...

Michael L. Polemis

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

170

Energy prices and energy intensity in China : a structural decomposition analysis and econometrics study  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has ...

Shi, Xiaoyu

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

171

An empirical analysis of the price discovery function of Shanghai fuel oil futures market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such ... there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the fut...

Zhen Wang; Zhenhai Liu; Chao Chen

2007-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Essays on Price Dynamics, Welfare Analysis, Household Food Insecurity in Mexico  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

prices, and determinants of household food insecurity are discussed and presented in three separate essays. In the first essay, the dynamic information flows among prices of important agricultural commodities in the United States (U.S.) and Mexico...

Magana Lemus, David

2013-09-20T23:59:59.000Z

173

Recommendations for damping and treatment of modeling uncertainty in seismic analysis of CANDU nuclear power plant  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The seismic analysis of the CANDU nuclear power plant is governed by Canadian Standard series N289. However, the dynamic analysis of some equipment and system such as the CANDU reactor and fueling machine must treat unique components not directly covered by the broad recommendations of these standards. This paper looks at the damping values and treatment of modeling uncertainty recommended by CSA N289.3, the current state of knowledge and expert opinion as reflected in several current standards, testing results, and the unique aspects of the CANDU system. Damping values are recommended for the component parts of the CANDU reactor and fueling machine system: reactor building, calandria vault, calandria, fuel channel, pressure tube, fueling machine and support structure. Recommendations for treatment of modeling and other uncertainties are also presented.

Usmani, S.A. [Atomic Energy of Canada, Ltd., Mississauga, Ontario (Canada); Baughman, P.D. [EQE International, Stratham, NH (United States)

1996-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

174

Weblog Analysis for Predicting Correlations in Stock Price Evolutions Milad Kharratzadeh1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

method which combines information from the weblog data and histor- ical stock prices. Through simulation strategies based on company sec- tors or historical stock prices. This suggests that the method- ology has evolution of stock prices and whether this is complementary to the information embedded in historical stock

Coates, Mark

175

An Analysis of the Effects of Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Residential Selling Prices in California.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An increasing number of homes with existing photovoltaic (PV) energy systems have sold in the U.S., yet relatively little research exists that estimates the marginal impacts of those PV systems on the sales price. A clearer understanding of these effects might influence the decisions of homeowners, home buyers and PV home builders. This research analyzes a large dataset of California homes that sold from 2000 through mid-2009 with PV installed. Across a large number of hedonic and repeat sales model specifications and robustness tests, the analysis finds strong evidence that homes with PV systems sold for a premium over comparable homes without. The effects range, on average, from approximately $3.9 to $6.4 per installed watt (DC), with most models coalescing near $5.5/watt, which corresponds to a premium of approximately $17,000 for a 3,100 watt system. The research also shows that, as PV systems age, the premium enjoyed at the time of home sale decreases. Additionally, existing homes with PV systems are found to have commanded a larger sales price premium than new homes with similarly sized PV systems. Reasons for this discrepancy are suggested, yet further research is warranted in this area as well as a number of other areas that are highlighted.

Cappers, Peter; Wiser, Ryan; Thayer, Mark; Hoen, Ben

2011-04-12T23:59:59.000Z

176

Uncertainty analysis of an IGCC system with single-stage entrained-flow gasifier  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) systems using coal gasification is an attractive option for future energy plants. Consequenty, understanding the system operation and optimizing gasifier performance in the presence of uncertain operating conditions is essential to extract the maximum benefits from the system. This work focuses on conducting such a study using an IGCC process simulation and a high-fidelity gasifier simulation coupled with stochastic simulation and multi-objective optimization capabilities. Coal gasifiers are the necessary basis of IGCC systems, and hence effective modeling and uncertainty analysis of the gasification process constitutes an important element of overall IGCC process design and operation. In this work, an Aspen Plus{reg_sign} steady-state process model of an IGCC system with carbon capture enables us to conduct simulation studies so that the effect of gasification variability on the whole process can be understood. The IGCC plant design consists of an single-stage entrained-flow gasifier, a physical solvent-based acid gas removal process for carbon capture, two model-7FB combustion turbine generators, two heat recovery steam generators, and one steam turbine generator in a multi-shaft 2x2x1 configuration. In the Aspen Plus process simulation, the gasifier is represented as a simplified lumped-parameter, restricted-equilibrium reactor model. In this work, we also make use of a distributed-parameter FLUENT{reg_sign} computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to characterize the uncertainty for the entrained-flow gasifier. The CFD-based gasifer model is much more comprehensive, predictive, and hence better suited to understand the effects of uncertainty. The possible uncertain parameters of the gasifier model are identified. This includes input coal composition as well as mass flow rates of coal, slurry water, and oxidant. Using a selected number of random (Monte Carlo) samples for the different parameters, the CFD model is simulated to observe the variations in the output variables (such as syngas composition, gas and ash flow rates etc.). The same samples are then used to conduct simulations using the Aspen Plus IGCC model. The simulation results for the high-fidelity CFD-based gasifier model and the Aspen Plus equilibrium reactor model for selected uncertain parameters are then used to perform the estimation. Defining the ratio of CFD based results to the Aspen Plus result as the uncertainty factor (UF), the work quantifies the extent of uncertainty and then uses uniform* distribution to characterize the uncertainty factor distribution. The characterization and quantification of uncertainty is then used to conduct stochastic simulation of the IGCC system in Aspen Plus. The CAPE-OPEN compliant stochastic simulation capability allows one to conduct a rigorous analysis and generate the feasible space for the operation of the IGCC system. The stochastic simulation results can later be used to conduct multi-objective optimization of the gasifier using a set of identified decision variables. The CAPE-OPEN compliant multi-objective capability in Aspen Plus can be used to conduct the analysis. Since the analysis is based on the uncertainty modeling studies of the gasifier, the optimization accounts for possible uncertainties in the operation of the system. The results for the optimized IGCC system and the gasifier, obtained from the stochastic simulation results, are expected to be more rigorous and hence closer to those obtained from CFD-based rigorous modeling.

Shastri, Y.; Diwekar, U.; Zitney, S.

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

177

Identifying the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship: An Empirical Mode Decomposition Analysis of U.S. Data  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This work applies the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to data on real quarterly oil price (West Texas Intermediate - WTI) and U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This relatively new method is adaptive and capable of handling non-linear and non-stationary data. Correlation analysis of the decomposition results was performed and examined for insights into the oil-macroeconomy relationship. Several components of this relationship were identified. However, the principal one is that the medium-run cyclical component of the oil price exerts a negative and exogenous influence on the main cyclical component of the GDP. This can be interpreted as the supply-driven or supply-shock component of the oil price-GDP relationship. In addition, weak correlations suggesting a lagging demand-driven, an expectations-driven, and a long-run supply-driven component of the relationship were also identified. Comparisons of these findings with significant oil supply disruption and recession dates were supportive. The study identified a number of lessons applicable to recent oil market events, including the eventuality of persistent economic and price declines following a long oil price run-up. In addition, it was found that oil-market related exogenous events are associated with short- to medium-run price implications regardless of whether they lead to actual supply disruptions.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

178

Use of Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis to Support M&VDecisions in ESPCs  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Measurement and Verification (M&V) is a critical elementof an Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) - without M&V, thereisno way to confirm that the projected savings in an ESPC are in factbeing realized. For any given energy conservation measure in an ESPC,there are usually several M&V choices, which will vary in terms ofmeasurement uncertainty, cost, and technical feasibility. Typically,M&V decisions are made almost solely based on engineering judgmentand experience, with little, if any, quantitative uncertainty analysis(QUA). This paper describes the results of a pilot project initiated bythe Department of Energy s Federal Energy Management Program to explorethe use of Monte-Carlo simulation to assess savings uncertainty andthereby augment the M&V decision-making process in ESPCs. The intentwas to use QUA selectively in combination with heuristic knowledge, inorder to obtain quantitative estimates of the savings uncertainty withoutthe burden of a comprehensive "bottoms-up" QUA. This approach was used toanalyze the savings uncertainty in an ESPC for a large federal agency.The QUA was seamlessly integrated into the ESPC development process andthe incremental effort was relatively small with user-friendly tools thatare commercially available. As the case study illustrates, in some casesthe QUA simply confirms intuitive or qualitative information, while inother cases, it provides insight that suggests revisiting the M&Vplan. The case study also showed that M&V decisions should beinformed by the portfolio risk diversification. By providing quantitativeuncertainty information, QUA can effectively augment the M&Vdecision-making process as well as the overall ESPC financialanalysis.

Mathew, Paul A.; Koehling, Erick; Kumar, Satish

2005-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

179

The impact of uncertainty and risk measures  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

peak, and finds that this nonlinear transformation of the oiland oil price growth rates. As seen in the above illustration, uncertainty is at its peak

Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

180

An Analysis of the Effects of Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in California  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

4476E 4476E An Analysis of the Effects of Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in California Ben Hoen, Ryan Wiser, Peter Cappers and Mark Thayer Environmental Energy Technologies Division April 2011 Download from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/reports/lbnl-4476e.pdf This work was supported by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (Solar Energy Technologies Program) of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231, by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under Contract No. DEK-8883050, and by the Clean Energy States Alliance. ERNEST ORLANDO LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY Disclaimer This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government.

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181

Uncertainty Analysis for a De-pressurised Loss of Forced Cooling Event of the PBMR Reactor  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper presents an uncertainty analysis for a De-pressurised Loss of Forced Cooling (DLOFC) event that was performed with the systems CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code Flownex for the PBMR reactor. An uncertainty analysis was performed to determine the variation in maximum fuel, core barrel and reactor pressure vessel (RPV) temperature due to variations in model input parameters. Some of the input parameters that were varied are: thermo-physical properties of helium and the various solid materials, decay heat, neutron and gamma heating, pebble bed pressure loss, pebble bed Nusselt number and pebble bed bypass flows. The Flownex model of the PBMR reactor is a 2-dimensional axisymmetrical model. It is simplified in terms of geometry and some other input values. However, it is believed that the model adequately indicates the effect of changes in certain input parameters on the fuel temperature and other components during a DLOFC event. Firstly, a sensitivity study was performed where input variables were varied individually according to predefined uncertainty ranges and the results were sorted according to the effect on maximum fuel temperature. In the sensitivity study, only seven variables had a significant effect on the maximum fuel temperature (greater that 5 deg. C). The most significant are power distribution profile, decay heat, reflector properties and effective pebble bed conductivity. Secondly, Monte Carlo analyses were performed in which twenty variables were varied simultaneously within predefined uncertainty ranges. For a one-tailed 95% confidence level, the conservatism that should be added to the best estimate calculation of the maximum fuel temperature for a DLOFC was determined as 53 deg. C. This value will probably increase after some model refinements in the future. Flownex was found to be a valuable tool for uncertainly analyses, facilitating both sensitivity studies and Monte Carlo analyses. (authors)

Jansen van Rensburg, Pieter A.; Sage, Martin G. [PBMR, 1279 Mike Crawford Avenue, Centurion 0046 (South Africa)

2006-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

182

Pricing with uncertain customer valuations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

holds a SM and a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. ... of uncertainty motivates the introduction of non-linearities in the demand as a function of price ... of price-response functions, parametrized by a risk sensitivity coefficient,...

2007-10-16T23:59:59.000Z

183

Modeling and Analysis of Price-Responsive Loads in the Operation of Smart Grids.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??In this thesis, a demand elasticity model is developed and tested for the dispatch of high voltage power systems and microgrids. The price obtained from (more)

Ramos-Gaete, Felipe

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

An analysis of asymmetric demand response to price changes: The case of local telephone calls  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Asymmetric demand responses to price changes are not an observable ... empirical studies generally support the theory of asymmetric demand responses. We construct a dynamic model based on...

Miles O. Bidwell Jr.; Bruce X. Wang; J. Douglas Zona

1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

Japan's Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market: An Analysis of Residential System Prices (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This presentation summarizes market and policy factors influencing residential solar photovoltaic system prices in Japan, and compares these factors to related developments in the United States.

James, T.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

186

Model validation and uncertainty analysis -- An example using a nitrate percolation model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Model validation and uncertainty analysis are demonstrated using a model previously developed for estimating nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) concentrations in percolation water from land application of sewage sludge. The objectives are to demonstrate alternate validation techniques and to analyze uncertainty associated with model use following validation. Field data from three published sludge application studies and two separate methods are used for the validation. The first method, point validation, is accomplished by inserting mean values into the model to make point predictions. Model accuracy is then assessed by calculating coefficient of determination (r{sup 2}), relative error and standard error. Statistical accuracy is tested using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The second method, statistical validation, uses Monte Carlo simulation to obtain distributions of model predictions. The hypothesis that field data represent reasonable samples from the distribution of model predictions is tested by checking whether observed values are within a range bounded by the 5 and 95% quantities of the distribution. Both validation methods demonstrate that the land application model generally overestimates nitrate concentrations. Monte Carlo simulation is used to identify which model input parameters are the largest contributors to the uncertainty in model predictions.

Mummert, M.C. [R.E. Wright Environmental, Inc., Middletown, PA (United States)

1996-12-31T23:59:59.000Z

187

Uncertainty Studies of Real Anode Surface Area in Computational Analysis for Molten Salt Electrorefining  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This study examines how much cell potential changes with five differently assumed real anode surface area cases. Determining real anode surface area is a significant issue to be resolved for precisely modeling molten salt electrorefining. Based on a three-dimensional electrorefining model, calculated cell potentials compare with an experimental cell potential variation over 80 hours of operation of the Mark-IV electrorefiner with driver fuel from the Experimental Breeder Reactor II. We succeeded to achieve a good agreement with an overall trend of the experimental data with appropriate selection of a mode for real anode surface area, but there are still local inconsistencies between theoretical calculation and experimental observation. In addition, the results were validated and compared with two-dimensional results to identify possible uncertainty factors that had to be further considered in a computational electrorefining analysis. These uncertainty factors include material properties, heterogeneous material distribution, surface roughness, and current efficiency. Zirconium's abundance and complex behavior have more impact on uncertainty towards the latter period of electrorefining at given batch of fuel. The benchmark results found that anode materials would be dissolved from both axial and radial directions at least for low burn-up metallic fuels after active liquid sodium bonding was dissolved.

Sungyeol Choi; Jaeyeong Park; Robert O. Hoover; Supathorn Phongikaroon; Michael F. Simpson; Kwang-Rag Kim; Il Soon Hwang

2011-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

Uncertainty analysis for an updated dose assessment for a US nuclear test site: Bikini Atoll  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

A detailed analysis of uncertainty and interindividual variability in estimated doses was conducted for a rehabilitation scenario for Bikini Island at Bikini Atoll, in which the top 40 cm of soil would be removed in the housing and village area, and the rest of the island is treated with potassium fertilizer, prior to an assumed resettlement date of 1999. Predicted doses were considered for the following fallout-related exposure pathways: ingested Cesium-137 and Strontium-90, external gamma exposure, and inhalation and ingestion of Americium-241 + Plutonium-239+240. Two dietary scenarios were considered: (1) imported foods are available (IA), and (2) imported foods are unavailable (only local foods are consumed) (IUA). Corresponding calculations of uncertainty in estimated population-average dose showed that after {approximately}5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to uncertainty in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its population-average value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). Corresponding calculations of interindividual variability in the expected value of dose with respect to uncertainty showed that after {approximately}5 y of residence on Bikini, the upper and lower 95% confidence limits with respect to interindividual variability in this dose are estimated to be approximately 2-fold higher and lower than its expected value, respectively (under both IA and IUA assumptions). For reference, the expected values of population-average dose at age 70 were estimated to be 1.6 and 5.2 cSv under the IA and IUA dietary assumptions, respectively. Assuming that 200 Bikini resettlers would be exposed to local foods (under both IA and IUA assumptions), the maximum 1-y dose received by any Bikini resident is most likely to be approximately 2 and 8 mSv under the IA and IUA assumptions, respectively.

Bogen, K.T.; Conrado, C.L.; Robison, W.L.

1995-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season.

Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A. [Gram, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1995-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

190

Why Do Motor Gasoline Prices Vary Regionally? California Case Study  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Analysis of the difference between the retail gasoline prices in California and the average U.S. retail prices.

1998-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

191

Volatility of Power Grids under Real-Time Pricing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale electricity prices to the end consumers, and is shown to create a closed-loop feedback system between the physical layer and the market layer of the power system. In the absence of a carefully designed control law, such direct feedback between the two layers could increase volatility and lower the system's robustness to uncertainty in demand and generation. A new notion of generalized price-elasticity is introduced, and it is shown that price volatility can be characterized in terms of the system's maximal relative price elasticity, defined as the maximal ratio of the generalized price-elasticity of consumers to that of the producers. As this ratio increases, the system becomes more volatile, and eventually, unstable. As new demand response technolo...

Roozbehani, Mardavij; Mitter, Sanjoy K

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

192

PRICE LEVELS AND DISPERSION WITH ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??In the extensive literature on price dispersions that exists to date, there is a gap in the analysis of how market structure affects prices as (more)

Bhattacharya, Tanmoy

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

193

LED Price Tracking Form  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

DOE intends to update the SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning report on an annual basis, but doing so requires that we have sufficient product and purchase data including acquisition date, purchase price, product category, and rated initial lumens. Those interested in helping collect this data are asked to use the LED Price Tracking FormMicrosoft Excel and follow the instructions for submitting data.

194

Economic History Revisited: New Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

to the southern and midwestern regions of the United States. However, the large run-up in oil prices is increasingEconomic History Revisited: New Uncertainties I n the last Sitar-Rutgers Regional Report, we are paying ever-increasing prices for fewer available sites. Warehouse sites in the southern portion

195

Grid and basis adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The demand for accurate and computationally affordable sensitivity and uncertainty techniques is constantly on the rise and has become especially pressing in the nuclear field with the shift to Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies in the licensing of nuclear installations. Besides traditional, already well developed methods such as first order perturbation theory or Monte Carlo sampling Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been given a growing emphasis in recent years due to its simple application and good performance. This paper presents new developments of the research done at TU Delft on such Polynomial Chaos (PC) techniques. Our work is focused on the Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) approach and adaptive methods for building the PCE of responses of interest. Recent efforts resulted in a new adaptive sparse grid algorithm designed for estimating the PC coefficients. The algorithm is based on Gerstner's procedure for calculating multi-dimensional integrals but proves to be computationally significantly cheaper, while at the same it retains a similar accuracy as the original method. More importantly the issue of basis adaptivity has been investigated and two techniques have been implemented for constructing the sparse PCE of quantities of interest. Not using the traditional full PC basis set leads to further reduction in computational time since the high order grids necessary for accurately estimating the near zero expansion coefficients of polynomial basis vectors not needed in the PCE can be excluded from the calculation. Moreover the sparse PC representation of the response is easier to handle when used for sensitivity analysis or uncertainty propagation due to the smaller number of basis vectors. The developed grid and basis adaptive methods have been implemented in Matlab as the Fully Adaptive Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (FANISP) algorithm and were tested on four analytical problems. These show consistent good performance both in terms of the accuracy of the resulting PC representation of quantities and the computational costs associated with constructing the sparse PCE. Basis adaptivity also seems to make the employment of PC techniques possible for problems with a higher number of input parameters (1520), alleviating a well known limitation of the traditional approach. The prospect of larger scale applicability and the simplicity of implementation makes such adaptive PC algorithms particularly appealing for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex systems and legacy codes.

Perk, Zoltn, E-mail: Z.Perko@tudelft.nl; Gilli, Luca, E-mail: Gilli@nrg.eu; Lathouwers, Danny, E-mail: D.Lathouwers@tudelft.nl; Kloosterman, Jan Leen, E-mail: J.L.Kloosterman@tudelft.nl

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

196

Loss-Free Pricing Rules  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter provides an application of the pricing rule approach to the analysis of unregulated market economies with non-convex production sets. Loss-free pricing rules provide a natural framework for this a...

Prof. Dr. Antonio Villar

2000-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

197

A Study on Photovoltaic Internet Pricing Problem Under Bargaining Game Analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

As a renewable energy, PV gradually highlights its clean, no pollution, recycling and other advantages. However, the high costs of production makes the prices of photovoltaic products have been high. In this pape...

Wu-jun Cao; Qi Zheng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

198

Multi-criteria analysis : an alternative approach for the evaluation of road pricing strategies  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Interest in road pricing among political leaders, transportation analysts, academics, and government agencies has increased in recent years. There are myriad reasons for this newfound consideration, but the deployment of ...

Ensor, Jeffrey D. (Jeffrey Douglas)

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

199

Energy policies in a macroeconomic model: an analysis of energy taxes when oil prices decline  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Economic planners and policy-makers have been acquainted, in the last fifteen years, with unanticipated oil price increases. The energy economics literature is abundant ... rules that would mitigate the negative ...

P. Capros; P. Karadeloglou; G. Mentzas

1992-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

200

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis- 2010  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

Report describes the 2010 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing life-cycle cost analyses of energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects in federal facilities.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

Oil and metal price movements and BRIC macro-economy: an empirical analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Brazil, Russia, India, and China are the four fastest growing economies to emerge at the dawn of the new century. Concisely referred to as BRIC, the growth of these states has transferred sources of wealth and capital. To fuel such rising economies requires resources. In particular, food, construction materials, and energy are necessary to sustain BRIC growth. This paper will ultimately examine the relationship between macroeconomic factors of the BRIC countries and commodity price movements from the early 1990s to the end of 2007. Some strong relationships were found, including metal price fluctuations on Brazil's Stock Index and oil price fluctuations on Russia GDP. Interestingly, we could not find any significant relationships between China's macroeconomic factors and commodity price movements.

Paul Kim; Tomohiro Ando

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

202

Uncertainty analysis of criticality safety for the plate type fuel assembly storage rack  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

To evaluate the criticality safety of the fresh and the spent fuel storage racks in an open pool type research reactor designed by KAERI, the upper subcriticality limit (USL) analysis was carried out. First, the bias and its uncertainty of MCNP code system with ENDF/B-VII library were evaluated using the calculation results of the 183 benchmark experiments. The criticality calculations for the fuel storage rack are carried out under a normal state, an increased water temperature, a fuel assembly drop, and an eccentric insertion which can affect the criticality. Considering biases and uncertainties for the MCNP code system, abnormal conditions, and the manufacturing tolerance of the cell tube thickness, the USL value that can guarantee sufficient subcriticality is determined. It was found that the criticality of the fresh and the spent fuel storage racks currently designed satisfy the USL condition. Additionally, it was concluded that the pitch size of a fresh fuel storage rack can be reduced for efficient space availability, and even under a worst case in which the fresh storage rack is surrounded by a lower water density and the smallest pitch size satisfies the USL conditions.

Tae Young Han; Chang Je Park; Byung Chul Lee; Jae Man Noh

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

AustraliaJapan coking coal trade: A hedonic analysis under benchmark and fair treatment pricing  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Given Japan's dominant position in the AsiaPacific regional coal market and the continuing relatively low profitability of Australia's coal industry, the influence of the Japanese steel mills on coal pricing arrangements between Australia and Japan remains an issue in Australia. In Japanese fiscal year (JFY) 1996, the Japanese steel mills replaced benchmark pricing with the fair treatment pricing system whereby coal contract information is kept confidential. In this paper, Quandt's switching regime model is used to test for structural change in hedonic pricing relationships in the important AustraliaJapan coking coal trade between JFY 1992 and 1997. There is statistical evidence of significant structural change in JFY 1996 for hard coking coal and in JFY 1995 for semisoft coking coal (when soft coking coal was merged with the semisoft category). The goodness of fit of the regressions is lower in each recent period. It is concluded that price discovery in the annual coal negotiations, particularly for hard coking coal, is relatively more difficult under fair treatment pricing.

Anthony Swan; Sally Thorpe; Lindsay Hogan

1999-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

204

Introduction to Macroeconomic Dynamics Special Issue on Oil Price Shocks  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Introduction to Macroeconomic Dynamics Special Issue on Oil Price Shocks Apostolos Serletisy in macroeconometrics and ...nancial econometrics to investigate the e¤ects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity. JEL classi...cation: G31, E32, C32. Keywords: Oil price

Garousi, Vahid

205

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, a detailed performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository. The following aspects of the 2008 YM PA are described in this presentation: (i) conceptual structure and computational organization, (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques in use, (iii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for physical processes, and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified the NRCs regulations for the YM repository.

Jon C. Helton; Clifford W. Hansen; Cdric J. Sallaberry

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Capturing the Impact of Fuel Price on Jet Aircraft Operating Costs with Engineering and Econometric Models  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Capturing the Impact of Fuel Price on Jet Aircraft OperatingCapturing the Impact of Fuel Price on Jet Aircraft Operatingare in part due to fuel price uncertainty. To address this

Smirti Ryerson, Megan; Hansen, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Regular price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

D-LINK DWL-1000AP 802.11B Wireless LAN Access Point 11Mbps Best Deal On Earth! Regular price: $399.00. Sale price: $234.00. DWL-120> D-LINK...

208

Cheese Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cheese prices are derived from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News, the National Agricultural Statistics Service, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This publication explains the process of cheese pricing. It includes information...

Schwart Jr., Robert B.; Anderson, David P.; Knutson, Ronald D.

2003-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

209

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a theoretical manual for selected algorithms implemented within the DAKOTA software. It is not intended as a comprehensive theoretical treatment, since a number of existing texts cover general optimization theory, statistical analysis, and other introductory topics. Rather, this manual is intended to summarize a set of DAKOTA-related research publications in the areas of surrogate-based optimization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization under uncertainty that provide the foundation for many of DAKOTA's iterative analysis capabilities.

Eldred, Michael Scott; Vigil, Dena M.; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Lefantzi, Sophia (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Eddy, John P.

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Class Pricing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A contract with K-class pricing divides a large set of goods or services into K classes and assigns a single price to any element of a class. Class pricing can be efficient when several different versions may be traded and ...

Wernerfelt, Birger

2008-01-15T23:59:59.000Z

211

An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship among the U.S. Ethanol, Corn and Soybean Sectors, and World Oil Prices.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This thesis aimed to investigate the relationships among the following variables: U.S. corn prices, U.S. ethanol production, U.S. soybean prices and world oil prices. After (more)

Savernini, Maira Q. M.

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Estimating the Impact of Water Pricing on Water Use Efficiency in Semi-arid Cropping System: An Application of Probabilistically Constrained Nonparametric Efficiency Analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

By introducing proper pricing instruments, farm level water can be used more efficient. But it ... demands a proper estimation strategy to analyse the efficiency and the input use behavior of farms ... analysis (...

Prakashan Chellattan Veettil; Stijn Speelman

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Pricing statistics sourcebook. 5. edition  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Thousands of historical and current prices for crude oil, NGL, petroleum products, natural gas and electric power are presented in easy to read tables. The book includes spot, posted and future prices; prices by state and by country; and monthly and annual prices. Most monthly price series go back 25 years. This comprehensive source for energy industry prices is a must for anyone involved in planning and budgeting. The Pricing Statistics Sourcebook has all of the essential key energy price statistics needed for analysis of the US and international oil and gas industries. Also include: an appendix of IEA, OECD and OPEC member lists, conversion factors heat content of fuels; and major events affecting the oil and gas industry since 1859. The book includes a summary analysis of significant changes in key data series written by Bob Beck, Economics Editor of the Oil and Gas Journal.

NONE

1999-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Uncertainty of forest carbon stock changes implications to the total uncertainty of GHG inventory of Finland  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Uncertainty analysis facilitates identification of the most important categories affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory uncertainty and helps in prioritisation of ... . This paper presents an uncertainty analys...

S. Monni; M. Peltoniemi; T. Palosuo; A. Lehtonen; R. Mkip

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

Uncertainty Analysis in Upscaling Well Log data By Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

developments with the advent of super high-speed and mass-storage computers. In spite of these improvements, however, there is still considerable uncertainty in data measurements, processing, interpreta- tion, etc. due to the limitation of geological... scale, and seismic data indicate from meter to decimeter scale. In practice, damaged samples and washout in boring tool could be causes of inaccurate data. Uncertainty in geophysics can be classified according to both geologic uncertainty and measurement...

Hwang, Kyubum

2010-01-16T23:59:59.000Z

216

Uncertainty Analysis of Certified Photovoltaic Measurements at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Discusses NREL Photovoltaic Cell and Module Performance Characterization Group's procedures to achieve lowest practical uncertainty in measuring PV performance with respect to reference conditions.

Emery, K.

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

217

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods for improving design robustness and reliability  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Engineering systems of the modern day are increasingly complex, often involving numerous components, countless mathematical models, and large, globally-distributed design teams. These features all contribute uncertainty ...

He, Qinxian, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

218

Measuring gas emissions from livestock buildings: A review on uncertainty analysis and error sources  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Measuring gaseous and particulate emissions from livestock houses has been the subject of intensive research over the past two decades. Currently, there is general agreement regarding appropriate methods to measure emissions from mechanically ventilated buildings. However, measuring emissions from naturally ventilated buildings remains an elusive target primarily because there is no reference method for measuring building ventilation rate. Ventilation rates and thus building emissions estimates for naturally ventilated buildings are likely to contain greater errors compared with those from mechanically ventilated buildings. This work reviews the origin and magnitude of errors associated with emissions from naturally ventilated buildings as compared to those typically found in mechanical ventilation. Firstly, some general concepts of error analysis are detailed. Then, typical errors found in the literature for each measurement technique are reviewed, and potential sources of relevant systematic and random errors are identified. The emission standard uncertainty in mechanical ventilation is at best 10% or more of the measured value, whereas in natural ventilation it may be considerably higher and there may also be significant unquantifiable biases. A reference method is necessary to obtain accurate emissions estimates, and for naturally ventilated structures this suggests the need for a new means of ventilation measurement. The results obtained from the analysis of information in this review will be helpful to establish research priorities, and to optimize research efforts in terms of quality of emission measurements.

Salvador Calvet; Richard S. Gates; GuoQiang Zhang; Fernando Estells; Nico W.M. Ogink; Sren Pedersen; Daniel Berckmans

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

219

Economic analysis under uncertainty of coal fired capture-ready power plants  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study assesses the feasibility of investing in capture ready (CR) coal-based power plants under uncertainty. It defines eighteen cases according to three routes for carbon capture (post, pre and oxy-combustion) and different levels of readiness. Due to the uncertain nature of the development of capture plants, this study applies a probabilistic analysis. Findings for the more likely scenario (median value) indicated that severe pre-investments in CR plants are the best choice only when the implementation of the capture occurs in the short term. In the long term, the investment decision favored the power plants not fully ready. Interestingly, under a less likely but possible scenario (the inferior limit of the probabilistic analysis) IGCC-Ready plants become the best option in the short term, and then oxy-combustion ready plants stand out. Hence, some policies such as those based on financing lowering the discount rate perceived by investors, and those based on fund to research and development, might create an investment environment favorable to CR plants.

Pedro R.R. Rochedo; Alexandre Szklo

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

220

Using Uncertainty Analysis to Guide the Development of Accelerated Stress Tests (Presentation)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Extrapolation of accelerated testing to the long-term results expected in the field has uncertainty associated with the acceleration factors and the range of possible stresses in the field. When multiple stresses (such as temperature and humidity) can be used to increase the acceleration, the uncertainty may be reduced according to which stress factors are used to accelerate the degradation.

Kempe, M.

2014-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

Information on Hydrologic Conceptual Models, Parameters, Uncertainty Analysis, and Data Sources for Dose Assessments at Decommissioning Sites  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report addresses issues related to the analysis of uncertainty in dose assessments conducted as part of decommissioning analyses. The analysis is limited to the hydrologic aspects of the exposure pathway involving infiltration of water at the ground surface, leaching of contaminants, and transport of contaminants through the groundwater to a point of exposure. The basic conceptual models and mathematical implementations of three dose assessment codes are outlined along with the site-specific conditions under which the codes may provide inaccurate, potentially nonconservative results. In addition, the hydrologic parameters of the codes are identified and compared. A methodology for parameter uncertainty assessment is outlined that considers the potential data limitations and modeling needs of decommissioning analyses. This methodology uses generic parameter distributions based on national or regional databases, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic modeling, and Bayesian updating to incorporate site-specific information. Data sources for best-estimate parameter values and parameter uncertainty information are also reviewed. A follow-on report will illustrate the uncertainty assessment methodology using decommissioning test cases.

Meyer, Philip D.; Gee, Glendon W.; Nicholson, Thomas J.

2000-02-28T23:59:59.000Z

222

2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Program Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaics R&D  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) conducted a 2009 Technical Risk and Uncertainty Analysis to better assess its cost goals for concentrating solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) systems, and to potentially rebalance its R&D portfolio. This report details the methodology, schedule, and results of this technical risk and uncertainty analysis.

McVeigh, J.; Lausten, M.; Eugeni, E.; Soni, A.

2010-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

223

Average Residential Price  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Data Series: Average Residential Price Residential Price - Local Distribution Companies Residential Price - Marketers Residential % Sold by Local Distribution Companies Average...

224

Essays on Price Dynamics  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Small Regular Price Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 The Cyclicality of Effective Prices2.3 Wholesale Price vs. Retail

Hong, Gee Hee

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

225

Analysis of protection and pricing strategies for digital products under uncertain demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract We analyze pricing and protection (digital rights management) strategies in a two-echelon supply chain that consists of a manufacturer and a retailer of digital products. The demand for the legal (non-pirated) product, which depends on both price and monetary investment in protection, is assumed to be uncertain. Three different supply chain models are analyzed: manufacturer Stackelberg, retailer Stackelberg and vertical integration. We show that the retailer?s utility function has no effect on the equilibrium strategies, and suggest schemes to find these strategies for any utility function of the manufacturer. Further results are obtained under assumptions of either a multiplicative or an additive demand model. We study the players? strategies under different profit criteria reflecting different attitudes toward riskspecifically, the Expectation criterion and the Target criterionand, for each criterion, we obtain the dependence between the pricing and the protection investment. We show that there are situations in which the manufacturer can increase his profit by giving up his leadership to the retailer, even if the power balance is in his favor.

Tal Avinadav; Tatyana Chernonog; Yael Perlman

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

226

Essays on Three Price Judgments: Price Fairness, Price Magnitude, and Price Expectation.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This dissertation addresses three important price judgments: price fairness, price magnitude, and price expectation. Developed over three chapters, the main objective of this research is (more)

Bhowmick, Sandeep

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

227

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Events in the United States: An Uncertainty Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in ...

Monier, Erwan

228

Electricity generation and emissions reduction decisions under uncertainty : a general equilibrium analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The electric power sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, will be a critical component of any policy the U.S. government pursues to confront climate change. In the context of uncertainty ...

Morris, Jennifer F. (Jennifer Faye)

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

229

Electricity Generation and Emissions Reduction Decisions under Policy Uncertainty: A General Equilibrium Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The electric power sector, which accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, will be a critical component of any policy the U.S. government pursues to confront climate change. In the context of uncertainty ...

Morris, J.

230

System level assessment of uncertainty in aviation environmental policy impact analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This thesis demonstrates the assessment of uncertainty of a simulation model at the system level, which takes into account the interaction between the modules that comprise the system. Results from this system level ...

Liem, Rhea Patricia

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

231

Evaluating and developing parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis methods for a computationally intensive distributed hydrological model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study focuses on developing and evaluating efficient and effective parameter calibration and uncertainty methods for hydrologic modeling. Five single objective optimization algorithms and six multi-objective optimization algorithms were tested...

Zhang, Xuesong

2009-05-15T23:59:59.000Z

232

Oil prices Brownian motion or mean reversion? A study using a one year ahead density forecast criterion  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

For oil related investment appraisal, an accurate description of the evolving uncertainty in the oil price is essential. For example, when using real option theory to value an investment, a density function for the future price of oil is central to the option valuation. The literature on oil pricing offers two views. The arbitrage pricing theory literature for oil suggests geometric Brownian motion and mean reversion models. Empirically driven literature suggests ARMAGARCH models. In addition to reflecting the volatility of the market, the density function of future prices should also incorporate the uncertainty due to price jumps, a common occurrence in the oil market. In this study, the accuracy of density forecasts for up to a year ahead is the major criterion for a comparison of a range of models of oil price behaviour, both those proposed in the literature and following from data analysis. The Kullbach Leibler information criterion is used to measure the accuracy of density forecasts. Using two crude oil price series, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) representing the US market, we demonstrate that accurate density forecasts are achievable for up to nearly two years ahead using a mixture of two Gaussians innovation processes with GARCH and no mean reversion.

Nigel Meade

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

233

Applying Calibration to Improve Uncertainty Assessment  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1.1 Introduction The oil and gas industry is full of uncertainty. In addition to significant subsurface uncertainty and uncertainty in oil and gas prices, there are other risks, e.g., political, that contribute to uncertainty... that is commonly applied in other industries for assessing forecasts and was initially developed to assess weather forecasts (Brier, 1950). Lichtenstein and Fischhoff (1977) summarized the background for the 3 Brier score and its components. The Brier score...

Fondren, Mark Edward

2013-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

234

The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An inputoutput analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This article examines the potential effects of peak oil on Spanish tourism and indirectly on the rest of the economy. We construct several scenarios of price increases in oil, related fossil fuels and their inflationary effects. These scenarios provide the context for an inputoutput (I/O) analysis which uses I/O tables extended with Tourism Satellite Accounts. The analysis comprises three steps: (1) applying an I/O price model to estimate the price change of tourism services in Spain due to an increase in the prices of oil and other fossil fuels; (2) assessing the effects of price changes on demand for tourism services; and (3) estimating the impacts of demand change on the country's economy using an I/O demand model. The results show that a decreased demand for tourism services results in the greatest fall in outputs in the tourism-related shares of air, water, land and railway transport sectors. These are followed by tourism agencies' activities, non-market recreational, cultural and sporting activities, restaurants, and hotels. Depending on the oil price scenario adopted, GDP (Gross domestic product) decreases between?0.08% and?0.38% and the number of jobs lost through direct and indirect effects varies between approximately 20,000 and 100,000.

Ivana Logar; Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

235

Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

is a regular monthly supplement to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. (http:www.eia.doe.govemeusteopubcontents.html) Contact: Bob Ryan (Robert.Ryan@eia.doe.gov) Energy...

236

An Analysis of the Effects of Residential Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Home Sales Prices in California  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

An increasing number of homes in the U.S. have sold with photovoltaic (PV) energy systems installed at the time of sale, yet relatively little research exists that estimates the marginal impacts of those PV systems on home sale prices. A clearer understanding of these possible impacts might influence the decisions of homeowners considering the installation of a PV system, homebuyers considering the purchase of a home with PV already installed, and new home builders considering including PV as an optional or standard product on their homes. This research analyzes a large dataset of California homes that sold from 2000 through mid-2009 with PV installed. It finds strong evidence that homes with PV systems sold for a premium over comparable homes without PV systems during this time frame. Estimates for this premium expressed in dollars per watt of installed PV range, on average, from roughly $4 to $5.5/watt across a large number of hedonic and repeat sales model specifications and robustness tests. When expressed as a ratio of the sales price premium of PV to estimated annual energy cost savings associated with PV, an average ratio of 14:1 to 19:1 can be calculated; these results are consistent with those of the more-extensive existing literature on the impact of energy efficiency on sales prices. When the data are split among new and existing homes, however, PV system premiums are markedly affected. New homes with PV show premiums of $2.3-2.6/watt, while existing homes with PV show premiums of more than $6/watt. Reasons for this discrepancy are suggested, yet further research is warranted. A number of other areas where future research would be useful are also highlighted.

Hoen, Ben; Cappers, Peter; Wiser, Ryan; Thayer, Mark

2011-04-19T23:59:59.000Z

237

What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price? Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Bitcoin has emerged as a fascinating phenomenon of the financial markets. Without any central authority issuing the currency, it has been associated with controversy ever since its popularity and public interest reached high levels. Here, we contribute to the discussion by examining potential drivers of Bitcoin prices ranging from fundamental to speculative and technical sources as well as a potential influence of the Chinese market. The evolution of the relationships is examined in both time and frequency domains utilizing the continuous wavelets framework so that we comment on development of the interconnections in time but we can also distinguish between short-term and long-term connections.

Kristoufek, Ladislav

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

238

Summary Notes from 15 November 2007 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis and Model Support  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

5 November 2007 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on 5 November 2007 Generic Technical Issue Discussion on Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis and Model Support Attendees: Representatives from Department of Energy-Headquarters (DOE-HQ) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) met at the DOE offices in Germantown, Maryland on 15 November 2007. Representatives from Department of Energy-Savannah River (DOE-SR) and the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC) participated in the meeting via a teleconference link. Discussion: DOE believes that based on the position papers provided prior to the meeting, DOE and NRC staff have many areas of agreement and no significant areas of disagreement with respect to the specific sensitivity and uncertainty analysis requirements articulated in the respective DOE and NRC requirements. The NRC

239

Fuel cycle cost uncertainty from nuclear fuel cycle comparison  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This paper examined the uncertainty in fuel cycle cost (FCC) calculation by considering both model and parameter uncertainty. Four different fuel cycle options were compared in the analysis including the once-through cycle (OT), the DUPIC cycle, the MOX cycle and a closed fuel cycle with fast reactors (FR). The model uncertainty was addressed by using three different FCC modeling approaches with and without the time value of money consideration. The relative ratios of FCC in comparison to OT did not change much by using different modeling approaches. This observation was consistent with the results of the sensitivity study for the discount rate. Two different sets of data with uncertainty range of unit costs were used to address the parameter uncertainty of the FCC calculation. The sensitivity study showed that the dominating contributor to the total variance of FCC is the uranium price. In general, the FCC of OT was found to be the lowest followed by FR, MOX, and DUPIC. But depending on the uranium price, the FR cycle was found to have lower FCC over OT. The reprocessing cost was also found to have a major impact on FCC.

Li, J.; McNelis, D. [Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (United States); Yim, M.S. [Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of)

2013-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

240

Utility-Scale Solar 2012: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Price Comparison With Feed-In Tariff (FIT) Programs ThatPPAs resulting from feed-in tariff (FIT) programs arePrice Comparison With Feed-In Tariff (FIT) Programs That

Bolinger, Mark

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric adjustment of OPEC and non-OPEC monthly crude oil prices  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of crude oil prices of OPEC and non-OPEC countries using ... cointegration. To capture the long-run asymmetric price transmission mechanism, we develop an erro...

Hassan Belkacem Ghassan; Prashanta Kumar Banerjee

2014-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

242

Political uncertainty and risk premia  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract We develop a general equilibrium model of government policy choice in which stock prices respond to political news. The model implies that political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in weaker economic conditions. Political uncertainty reduces the value of the implicit put protection that the government provides to the market. It also makes stocks more volatile and more correlated, especially when the economy is weak. We find empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.

?ubo Pstor; Pietro Veronesi

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

243

Characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, illustrates the conceptual structure of risk assessments for complex systems. The 2008 YM PA is based on the following three conceptual entities: a probability space that characterizes aleatory uncertainty; a function that predicts consequences for individual elements of the sample space for aleatory uncertainty; and a probability space that characterizes epistemic uncertainty. These entities and their use in the characterization, propagation and analysis of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty are described and illustrated with results from the 2008 YM PA.

Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

244

Uncertainty Analysis of Spectral Irradiance Reference Standards Used for NREL Calibrations  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Spectral irradiance produced by lamp standards such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) FEL-type tungsten halogen lamps are used to calibrate spectroradiometers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Spectroradiometers are often used to characterize spectral irradiance of solar simulators, which in turn are used to characterize photovoltaic device performance, e.g., power output and spectral response. Therefore, quantifying the calibration uncertainty of spectroradiometers is critical to understanding photovoltaic system performance. In this study, we attempted to reproduce the NIST-reported input variables, including the calibration uncertainty in spectral irradiance for a standard NIST lamp, and quantify uncertainty for measurement setup at the Optical Metrology Laboratory at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Habte, A.; Andreas, A.; Reda, I.; Campanelli, M.; Stoffel, T.

2013-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

245

The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis: Description of the Benchmark Test Cases and Phases  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The uncertainties in the HTR analysis tools are today typically assessed with sensitivity analysis and then a few important input uncertainties (typically based on a PIRT process) are varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, one wish to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Finally, there is also a renewed focus in supplying reliable covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) that can then be used in uncertainty methods. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are therefore becoming an essential component of any significant effort in data and simulation improvement. In order to address uncertainty in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling early in 2012. The project is built on the experience of the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity, but focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements. Two benchmark problems were defined with the prismatic type design represented by the MHTGR-350 design from General Atomics (GA) while a 250 MW modular pebble bed design, similar to the INET (China) and indirect-cycle PBMR (South Africa) designs are also included. In the paper more detail on the benchmark cases, the different specific phases and tasks and the latest status and plans are presented.

Frederik Reitsma; Gerhard Strydom; Bismark Tyobeka; Kostadin Ivanov

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

246

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...constraints on the demand side, balance-of-payments...intervene in the management of reserve stocks...exploit supply-side yield gaps where...import to satisfy food demand. Three regions have...Rigorous and transparent management of uncertainty is...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

247

1 INTRODUCTION Uncertainty analysis is a fundamental part of the risk  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

- precision due to lack of knowledge and information on the system. The former type of uncertainty is of- ten. In Section 2, some basic concepts about possi- bility theory are summarized; in Section 3, the de- tails about the integrated propagation framework are given; in Section 4, approaches for constructing pos

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

248

Strategic jet engine system design in light of uncertain fuel and carbon prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Strategic jet engine system design in light of uncertain fuel and carbon prices UTC a strategic engine design that is robust with regard to fuel and carbon price uncertainty in 2030, a SurplusIn order to find a strategic engine design that is robust with regard to fuel and carbon price uncertainty

Sóbester, András

249

Markets & Finance - Analysis & Projections - U.S. Energy Information  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Most Requested Most Requested Change category... Most Requested Electricity Financial Markets Financial Reporting System All Reports Filter by: All Data Analysis Projections Weekly Reports Today in Energy - Markets & Finance Short, timely articles with graphs about recent issues and trends in financial markets Monthly Reports Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Released: January 7, 2014 This is a regular monthly supplement to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. (archived versions) Archived Versions Market Prices and Uncertainty Report - Archive Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices? Released: December 14, 2011 An assessment of the various factors that may influence oil prices - physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial

250

The Application of Best Estimate and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology to Large LOCA Power Pulse in a CANDU 6 Reactor  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The paper describes briefly a best estimate plus uncertainty analysis (BE+UA) methodology and presents its proto-typing application to the power pulse phase of a limiting large Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) for a CANDU 6 reactor fuelled with CANFLEX{sup R} fuel. The methodology is consistent with and builds on world practice. The analysis is divided into two phases to focus on the dominant parameters for each phase and to allow for the consideration of all identified highly ranked parameters in the statistical analysis and response surface fits for margin parameters. The objective of this analysis is to quantify improvements in predicted safety margins under best estimate conditions. (authors)

Abdul-Razzak, A.; Zhang, J.; Sills, H.E.; Flatt, L.; Jenkins, D.; Wallace, D.J.; Popov, N. [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Ontario (Canada)

2002-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

251

Uncertainties analysis of fission fraction for reactor antineutrino experiments using DRAGON  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Rising interest in nuclear reactors as a source of antineutrinos for experiments motivates validated, fast, and accessible simulation to predict reactor rates. First, DRAGON was developed to calculate the fission rates of the four most important isotopes in fissions,235U,238U,239Pu and141Pu, and it was validated for PWRs using the Takahama benchmark. The fission fraction calculation function was validated through comparing our calculation results with MIT's results. we calculate the fission fraction of the Daya Bay reactor core, and compare its with those calculated by the commercial reactor simulation program SCIENCE, which is used by the Daya Bay nuclear power plant, and the results was consist with each other. The uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction was studied, and the uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction simulation is 0.6% per core for Daya Bay antineutrino experiment.

X. B. Ma; L. Z. Wang; Y. X. Chen; W. L. Zhong; F. P. An

2014-05-27T23:59:59.000Z

252

Addendum to: QRPA uncertainties and their correlations in the analysis of neutrinoless double beta decay  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

In a previous article [Phys. Rev. D 79, 053001 (2009)] we estimated the correlated uncertainties associated to the nuclear matrix elements (NME) of neutrinoless double beta decay (0 nu beta beta) within the quasiparticle random phase approximation (QRPA). Such estimates encompass recent independent calculations of NMEs, and can thus still provide a fair representation of the nuclear model uncertainties. In this context, we compare the claim of 0 nu beta beta decay in Ge-76 with recent negative results in Xe-136 and in other nuclei, and we infer the lifetime ranges allowed or excluded at 90% C.L. We also highlight some issues that should be addressed in order to properly compare and combine results coming from different 0 nu beta beta decay candidate nuclei.

Amand Faessler; G. L. Fogli; E. Lisi; V. Rodin; A. M. Rotunno; F. Simkovic

2013-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

253

Considerations for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and data assimilation for grid-to-rod fretting  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Grid-to-rod fretting is the leading cause of fuel failures in pressurized water reactors, and is one of the challenge problems being addressed by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors to guide its efforts to develop a virtual reactor environment. Prior and current efforts in modeling and simulation of grid-to-rod fretting are discussed. Sources of uncertainty in grid-to-rod fretting are also described.

Michael Pernice

2012-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

254

Interval analysis applied to the maximum loading point of electric power systems considering load data uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper proposes a simple and efficient power flow method to calculate, in an interval manner, the main variables corresponding to the maximum loading point, under load data uncertainties. The resulting interval nonlinear system of equations is solved using Krawczyk method. The proposed methodology is implemented in the Matlab environment using the Intlab toolbox. Results are compared with those obtainable by Monte Carlo simulations. IEEE 30 bus system and a South-southeastern Brazilian network are used to validate the proposed methodology.

L.E.S. Pereira; V.M. da Costa

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

255

Optical Spectroscopy of Tungsten Carbide for Uncertainty Analysis in Electron Electric Dipole Moment Search  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

We perform laser induced fluorescence(LIF) spectroscopy on a pulsed supersonic beam of tungsten carbide(WC) molecules, which has been proposed as a candidate molecular system for a permanent Electric Dipole Moment(EDM) search of the electron in its rovibrational ground state of the X3Delta1 state. In particular, [20.6]Omega=2, v'=4 <- X3Delta1,v"=0 transition at 485nm was used for the detection. The hyperfine structure and the Omega-doublet of the transition are measured, which are essential for estimating the size of the potential systematic uncertainties for electron EDM measurement. For further suppression of the systematic uncertainty, an alternative electron EDM measurement scheme utilizing the g factor crossing point of the Omega-doublet levels is discussed. On the other hand, flux and internal temperature of the molecular beam are characterized, which sets the limit on the statistical uncertainty of the electron EDM experiment. With the given results, the prospect of electron EDM experiment with the...

Lee, J; Skripnikov, L V; Petrov, A N; Titov, A V; Mosyagin, N S; Leanhardt, A E

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

The future viability of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This study presents a techno-economic assessment of algae-derived biodiesel under economic and technical uncertainties associated with the development of algal biorefineries. A global sensitivity analysis was performed using a High Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) method. It was found that, considering reasonable ranges over which each parameter can vary, the sensitivity of the biodiesel production cost to the key input parameters decreases in the following order: algae oil content>algae annual productivity per unit area>plant production capacity>carbon price increase rate. It was also found that the Return on Investment (ROI) is highly sensitive to the algae oil content, and to a lesser extent to the algae annual productivity, crude oil price and price increase rate, plant production capacity, and carbon price increase rate. For a large scale plant (100,000tonnes of biodiesel per year) the production cost of biodiesel is likely to be 0.81.6 per kg.

George Brownbridge; Pooya Azadi; Andrew Smallbone; Amit Bhave; Benjamin Taylor; Markus Kraft

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Notes: This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices peaked last fall as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. So where do we see crude oil prices going from here? Crude oil prices are expected to be about $28-$30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. Let's explore why we think prices will likely remain high, by looking at an important market barometer - inventories - which measures the

258

Prices & Trends  

Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. Learn about EIA and Energy Department organizations that track energy prices and trends.

259

Analysis of sampling plan options for tank 16H from the perspective of statistical uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This report develops a concentration variability model for Tank 16H in order to compare candidate sampling plans for assessing the concentrations of analytes in the residual material in the annulus and on the floor of the primary vessel. A concentration variability model is used to compare candidate sampling plans based on the expected upper 95% confidence limit (UCL95) for the mean. The result is expressed as a rank order of candidate sampling plans from lowest to highest expected UCL95, with the lowest being the most desirable from an uncertainty perspective.

Shine, E. P.

2013-02-28T23:59:59.000Z

260

A domain adaptive stochastic collocation approach for analysis of MEMS under uncertainties  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

This work proposes a domain adaptive stochastic collocation approach for uncertainty quantification, suitable for effective handling of discontinuities or sharp variations in the random domain. The basic idea of the proposed methodology is to adaptively decompose the random domain into subdomains. Within each subdomain, a sparse grid interpolant is constructed using the classical Smolyak construction [S. Smolyak, Quadrature and interpolation formulas for tensor products of certain classes of functions, Soviet Math. Dokl. 4 (1963) 240-243], to approximate the stochastic solution locally. The adaptive strategy is governed by the hierarchical surpluses, which are computed as part of the interpolation procedure. These hierarchical surpluses then serve as an error indicator for each subdomain, and lead to subdivision whenever it becomes greater than a threshold value. The hierarchical surpluses also provide information about the more important dimensions, and accordingly the random elements can be split along those dimensions. The proposed adaptive approach is employed to quantify the effect of uncertainty in input parameters on the performance of micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS). Specifically, we study the effect of uncertain material properties and geometrical parameters on the pull-in behavior and actuation properties of a MEMS switch. Using the adaptive approach, we resolve the pull-in instability in MEMS switches. The results from the proposed approach are verified using Monte Carlo simulations and it is demonstrated that it computes the required statistics effectively.

Agarwal, Nitin [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 405 N. Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Aluru, N.R. [Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 405 N. Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)], E-mail: aluru@uiuc.edu

2009-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

Chapter 8 - An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Oil Prices on Stock Markets in Gulf Cooperation Countries  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper implements recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methods to investigate the existence of a long-run relationship between oil prices and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market players, their stock markets are likely to be susceptible to oil price shocks. Using two different (weekly and monthly) datasets covering, respectively, the periods from June 7, 2005 to October 21, 2008, and from January 1996 to December 2007, our investigation shows that there is evidence for cointegration of oil prices and stock markets in GCC countries, while the SUR results indicate that oil price increases have a positive impact on stock prices, except in Saudi Arabia.

Mohamed El Hedi Arouri; Christophe Rault

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

262

A FRAMEWORK FOR TRANSMISSION CONGESTION MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS MINGHAI LIU  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

markets introduces uncertainty in the LMPs and consequently, in transmission pricing. In order to protect

Gross, George

263

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2004. OPECs Optimal Crude Oil Price, Energy Policy 32(2),percent change in real oil price. Figure 3. Price of crude023 Understanding Crude Oil Prices James D. Hamilton June

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2004. OPECs Optimal Crude Oil Price, Energy Policy 32(2),percent change in real oil price. Figure 3. Price of crudein predicting quarterly real oil price change. variable real

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

265

Ubiquitous Computing, Customer Tracking, and Price Discrimination  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Ubiquitous Computing, Customer Tracking, and Price Discrimination Alessandro Acquisti H. John Heinz's analysis is the possibility of combining context, historical, location and other personal data to dynamically alter the price of a product for each consumer - a form of price discrimination also known

Sadeh, Norman M.

266

Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Renewables Portfolio Standards: A Comparative Analysis of State-Level Policy Impact Projections  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Golove. 2006. Accounting for Fuel Price Risk When Comparingof Alternative Fossil Fuel Price and Carbon Regulationtechnology cost, fossil fuel price uncertainty, and

Chen, Cliff; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

On the environmental, economic and budgetary impacts of fossil fuel prices: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the Portuguese case  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This paper examines the influence of fossil fuel prices on carbon dioxide emissions, economic activity, and the public sector account in Portugal. It uses a dynamic general equilibrium model which highlights the mechanisms of endogenous growth and includes a detailed modeling of the public sector. Fuel price scenarios are based on forecasts by the US Department of Energy (DOE-US), the International Energy Agency (IEA-OECD) and IHS Global Insight Inc. The differences in relative fuel prices among the three scenarios lead to substantially different environmental impacts. Higher fuel prices in the DOE-US scenario lead to a 10.2% reduction in the policy effort required to meet the EU 2020 emission targets, while relative price changes in the IEA-OECD scenario result in a 19.2% increase in the required policy effort and decreasing fuel prices increase the emissions deficit by 95.9% under the IHS scenario. In terms of the long term economic impacts, our results suggest a 2.2% reduction in GDP in the DOE-US scenario and 1.9% in the IEA-OECD scenario and an increase of 1.4% in the IHS scenario. As to the budgetary impact, higher fuel prices lead to lower tax revenues, which, coupled with a reduction in public spending translates to lower public deficits. From a methodological perspective, our results highlight the importance of the mechanisms of endogenous growth. A scenario of higher fuel prices would, under exogenous economic growth assumptions, result in larger baseline emissions growth, substantially smaller economic effects, and rather different budgetary effects. From a policy perspective, our results highlight the importance of fossil fuel prices in defining the level of policy intervention required for compliance with international and domestic climate change legislation.

Alfredo M. Pereira; Rui M. Pereira

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares ...

Jiang, Yueyang

269

Fuel Performance Code Benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Light Water Reactor Modeling.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??Fuel performance codes are used in the design and safety analysis of light water reactors. The differences in the physical models and the numerics of (more)

Blyth, Taylor

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

270

Automobile Prices, Gasoline Prices, and Consumer Demand for Fuel Economy  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Automobile Prices, Gasoline Prices, and Consumer Demand for Fuel Economy Ashley Langer University evidence that automobile manufacturers set vehicle prices as if consumers respond to gasoline prices. We consumer preferences for fuel efficiency. Keywords: automobile prices, gasoline prices, environmental

Sadoulet, Elisabeth

271

Signal discovery, limits, and uncertainties with sparse On/Off measurements: an objective Bayesian analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

For decades researchers have studied the On/Off counting problem, where a measured rate consists of two parts. One due to a signal process and another due to a background process, of which both magnitudes are unknown. While most frequentist methods are adequate for large count numbers, they cannot be applied to sparse data. Here I want to present a new objective Bayesian solution that only depends on three parameters: the number of events in the signal region, the number of events in the background region, and the ratio of the exposure for both regions. First, the probability of the hypothesis that the counts are due to background only is derived analytically. Second, the marginalized posterior for the signal parameter is also derived analytically. With this two-step approach it is easy to calculate the signal's significance, strength, uncertainty, or upper limit in a unified way. The approach is valid without restrictions for any count number including zero and may be widely applied in particle physics, cosmic-ray physics and high-energy astrophysics. In order to demonstrate its performance I apply the method to gamma-ray burst data.

Max L. Knoetig

2014-06-11T23:59:59.000Z

272

Nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty for the Canadian supercritical water-cooled reactor II: Full core analysis  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Uncertainties in nuclear data are a fundamental source of uncertainty in reactor physics calculations. To determine their contribution to uncertainties in calculated reactor physics parameters, a nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty study is performed on the Canadian supercritical water reactor (SCWR) concept. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to the neutron multiplication factor k eff are 6.31 mk for the SCWR at the beginning of cycle (BOC) and 6.99 mk at the end of cycle (EOC). Both of these uncertainties have a statistical uncertainty of 0.02 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to Coolant Void Reactivity (CVR) are 1.0 mk and 0.9 mk for BOC and EOC, respectively, both with statistical uncertainties of 0.1 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to other reactivity parameters range from as low as 3% of to as high as ten times the values of the reactivity coefficients. The largest contributors to the uncertainties in the reactor physics parameters are Pu-239, Th-232, H-2, and isotopes of zirconium.

S.E. Langton; A. Buijs; J. Pencer

2015-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

Managing Energy Price Risk with Derivatives  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Managing Energy Price Risk with Derivatives Managing Energy Price Risk with Derivatives Speaker(s): Douglas Hale Date: September 18, 2003 - 12:00pm Location: Bldg. 90 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Joseph Eto Energy derivatives came into being with the deregulation of the petroleum and natural gas industries in the early 1980s. Although derivatives-forwards, futures and options-have been used in American agriculture since the mid-1800's to manage price risk, they were unnecessary in regulated energy industries. Deregulation revealed that oil, gas and electricity prices are exceptionally volatile. Companies were forced to cope with the uncertainty in energy prices; they latched onto derivatives as one tool for managing that risk. Enron's collapse brought energy derivatives to public attention. Following the derivative linked

274

Option pricing and foreign investment under political risk  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The paper analyses asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy. As current policy is maintained, perceived risk abates thus leading to a gradual appreciation of asset prices and a gradual decrease in their conditional variance. Option values computed under this process have time series and the term structure of conditional volatility, which, in general, are downward sloping. In price series without a policy reversal, implied volatility from option prices will exceed actual volatility, with this wedge progressively disappearing. This may be viewed as the volatility analogue of the peso premium for assets subject to large, infrequent price drops.

Joseph A. Cherian; Enrico Perotti

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

275

Price Risk Management in the Midst of a Credit Crisis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Agricultural producers today face volatile markets, tight credit, economic uncertainty and escalating input costs. Understanding and using risk management tools in this environment can reduce much of the price risk and may improve financial returns....

Welch, Mark; Amosson, Stephen H.; Robinson, John; Falconer, Lawrence

2009-03-26T23:59:59.000Z

276

Natural Gas Wellhead Price  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Pipeline and Distribution Use Price City Gate Price Residential Price Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices Commercial Price Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices Industrial Price Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices Vehicle Fuel Price Electric Power Price Period: Monthly Annual Pipeline and Distribution Use Price City Gate Price Residential Price Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices Commercial Price Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices Industrial Price Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices Vehicle Fuel Price Electric Power Price Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: Data Series Area 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History U.S. 6.25 7.97 3.67 4.48 3.95 2.66 1922-2012 Alabama 7.44 9.65 4.32 4.46 1967-2010 Alaska 5.63 7.39 2.93 3.17 1967-2010 Arizona 5.98 7.09 3.19 4.11 1967-2010 Arkansas

277

PRICE GOUGING | Department of Energy  

Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

PRICE GOUGING PRICE GOUGING PRICE GOUGING More Documents & Publications PRICE GOUGING Department of Energy Response to Hurricane Katrina Fact Sheet Department of Energy Response to...

278

Evaluating prediction uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented.

McKay, M.D. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

1995-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

279

ResGrid: A Grid-Aware Toolkit for Reservoir Uncertainty Analysis  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

,000 oil producing wells, around 4K offshore. Reservoir Studies · Assessments and predictions of oil/gas oil, water or gas. · Many geological parameters cannot be measured or modeled and are unknowns. · We ­ Drilling performance analysis with high-rate data "UCOMS" #12;Oil Industry in Louisiana · Major oil

Allen, Gabrielle

280

Adjoint-Based Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Reactor Depletion Calculations  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

-driven and k-eigenvalue forms of the depletion equations. We describe the implementation and verification of solvers for the forward and ad- joint equations in the PDT code, and we test the algorithms on realistic reactor analysis problems. We demonstrate a new...

Stripling, Hayes Franklin

2013-08-02T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

Determination of uncertainty in reserves estimate from analysis of production decline data  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

.2 Challeges in Probabilistic Reserves Estimation............................4 CHAPTER III METHODOLOGY .............................10 3.1 Modified Bootstap and Block Resampling.................................10 3.2 Backward Analysis Scheme.... ....................................................................11 3.2 Modified bootstrap sequence. ...........................................................................11 3.3 Original data for conventional bootstrap example............................................12 3.4 Synthetic data set 1...

Wang, Yuhong

2007-09-17T23:59:59.000Z

282

Dynamic Analysis of Global Copper Flows. Global Stocks, Postconsumer Material Flows, Recycling Indicators, and Uncertainty Evaluation  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Thus, we compared Gaussian distributions to log-normal, ?2, and Weibull distributions, and obtained similar results to the analysis based on varying the standard deviation of the Gaussian distributions: The effect of changing the shape (functional form) of the lifetime distributions is small compared to the effect of changes in average lifetimes. ... Rosenau-Tornow, D.; Buchholz, P.; Riemann, A.; Wagner, M.Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. ...

Simon Glser; Marcel Soulier; Luis A. Tercero Espinoza

2013-05-13T23:59:59.000Z

283

Understanding Crude Oil Prices  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

2004. OPECs Optimal Crude Oil Price, Energy Policy 32(2),023 Understanding Crude Oil Prices James D. Hamilton Junedirectly. Understanding Crude Oil Prices* James D. Hamilton

Hamilton, James Douglas

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

Steadying of oil prices  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Oil prices have fallen below the 30 dollar mark ... in the lower half of OPECs target price band. Will OPEC manage to maintain high prices and revenues by restricting production?

Klaus Matthies

285

Diesel prices flat  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Diesel prices flat The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel saw no movement from last week. Prices remained flat at 3.89 a gallon on Monday, based on the weekly...

286

Diesel prices decrease  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Diesel prices decrease The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to 4.05 a gallon on Monday. That's down 4.1 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price...

287

Diesel prices increase  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Diesel prices increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to 3.90 a gallon on Monday. That's up 3 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price...

288

Diesel prices decrease  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Diesel prices decrease The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to 3.88 a gallon on Monday. That's down a penny from a week ago, based on the weekly price...

289

Diesel prices decrease  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Diesel prices decrease The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to 3.82 a gallon on Monday. That's down 2.1 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price...

290

Diesel prices decrease  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Diesel prices decrease The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to 3.87 a gallon on Monday. That's down 1.6 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price...

291

Diesel prices decrease  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Diesel prices decrease The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel fell to 3.85 a gallon on Monday. That's down 2 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price...

292

Motor fuel prices in Turkey  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract The world?s most expensive motor fuel (gasoline, diesel and LPG) is sold most likely in the Republic of Turkey. This paper investigates the key issues related to the motor fuel prices in Turkey. First of all, the paper analyses the main reason behind high prices, namely motor fuel taxes in Turkey. Then, it estimates the elasticity of motor fuel demand in Turkey using an econometric analysis. The findings indicate that motor fuel demand in Turkey is quite inelastic and, therefore, not responsive to price increases caused by an increase in either pre-tax prices or taxes. Therefore, fuel market in Turkey is open to opportunistic behavior by firms (through excessive profits) and the government (through excessive taxes). Besides, the paper focuses on the impact of high motor fuel prices on road transport associated activities, including the pattern of passenger transportation, motorization rate, fuel use, total kilometers traveled and CO2 emissions from road transportation. The impact of motor fuel prices on income distribution in Turkey and Turkish public opinion about high motor fuel prices are also among the subjects investigated in the course of the study.

Erkan Erdogdu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

293

Retail Price Changes Lag Spot Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 Notes: While EIA cannot claim to explain all of the factors that drive retail gasoline prices, we have had a fair amount of success in exploring the relationship between wholesale and retail prices. In particular, we have looked closely at the "pass-through" of changes in spot prices to the retail market. This graph shows a weighted national average of spot prices for regular gasoline -both conventional and reformulated (shown in red), and EIA's weekly survey price for retail regular (again both conventional and reformulated). As you can see, spot prices tend to be more volatile (and would be even more so on a daily basis), while these changes are smoother by the time they reach the retail pump. Furthermore, by looking at the peaks, you can see the retail prices seem to lag the spot price changes

294

CHEMICAL MARKET PRICES  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

CHEMICAL MARKET PRICES ... Compiled from weekly current price listings in the Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter , with permission of the publisher under its copyright. ...

1941-11-10T23:59:59.000Z

295

CHEMICAL MARKET PRICES  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

CHEMICAL MARKET PRICES ... Compiled from weakly current price listings in the Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter, with permission of the publisher under its copyright. ...

1941-01-10T23:59:59.000Z

296

Chemical Market Prices  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Chemical Market Prices ... Compiled from weekly current price listings in the Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter with permission of the publisher under its copyright. ...

1945-01-10T23:59:59.000Z

297

CHEMICAL MARKET PRICES  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

CHEMICAL MARKET PRICES ... Compiled from weekly current price listings in the Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter, with permission of the publisher under its copyright. ...

1941-10-10T23:59:59.000Z

298

CHEMICAL MARKET PRICES  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

CHEMICAL MARKET PRICES ... Compiled from weekly current price listings in the Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter , with permission of the publisher under its copyright. ...

1941-02-10T23:59:59.000Z

299

CHEMICAL MARKET PRICES  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

CHEMICAL MARKET PRICES ... Compiled from weekly current price listings in the Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter , with permission of the publisher under its copyright. ...

1941-03-10T23:59:59.000Z

300

THE WEEK'S PRICE CHANGES  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

THE WEEK'S PRICE CHANGES ... Socony Vacuum Oil Co. effected a second reduction in its prices for No. 2 fuel oil and ... ...

1950-02-27T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis. Version 5.0, user's reference manual.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a reference manual for the commands specification for the DAKOTA software, providing input overviews, option descriptions, and example specifications.

Eldred, Michael Scott; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Eddy, John P.; Haskell, Karen H.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

DAKOTA, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis:version 4.0 reference manual  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a reference manual for the commands specification for the DAKOTA software, providing input overviews, option descriptions, and example specifications.

Griffin, Joshua D. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Eldred, Michael Scott; Martinez-Canales, Monica L. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Watson, Jean-Paul; Kolda, Tamara Gibson (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Williams, Pamela J. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Dunlavy, Daniel M.; Eddy, John P.; Hart, William Eugene; Guinta, Anthony A.; Brown, Shannon L.

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

What Is Price Volatility  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

What Is Price Volatility? What Is Price Volatility? The term "price volatility" is used to describe price fluctuations of a commodity. Volatility is measured by the day-to-day percentage difference in the price of the commodity. The degree of variation, not the level of prices, defines a volatile market. Since price is a function of supply and demand, it follows that volatility is a result of the underlying supply and demand characteristics of the market. Therefore, high levels of volatility reflect extraordinary characteristics of supply and/or demand. Prices of basic energy (natural gas, electricity, heating oil) are generally more volatile than prices of other commodities. One reason that energy prices are so volatile is that many consumers are extremely limited in their ability to substitute other fuels when the price, of natural gas

304

Development, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification of high-fidelity arctic sea ice models.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and due to feedback effects the Arctic ice cover is changing rapidly. Predictive mathematical models are of paramount importance for accurate estimates of the future ice trajectory. However, the sea ice components of Global Climate Models (GCMs) vary significantly in their prediction of the future state of Arctic sea ice and have generally underestimated the rate of decline in minimum sea ice extent seen over the past thirty years. One of the contributing factors to this variability is the sensitivity of the sea ice to model physical parameters. A new sea ice model that has the potential to improve sea ice predictions incorporates an anisotropic elastic-decohesive rheology and dynamics solved using the material-point method (MPM), which combines Lagrangian particles for advection with a background grid for gradient computations. We evaluate the variability of the Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE code and the MPM sea ice code for a single year simulation of the Arctic basin using consistent ocean and atmospheric forcing. Sensitivities of ice volume, ice area, ice extent, root mean square (RMS) ice speed, central Arctic ice thickness, and central Arctic ice speed with respect to ten different dynamic and thermodynamic parameters are evaluated both individually and in combination using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA). We find similar responses for the two codes and some interesting seasonal variability in the strength of the parameters on the solution.

Peterson, Kara J.; Bochev, Pavel Blagoveston; Paskaleva, Biliana S.

2010-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Uncertainty Analysis of Runoff Simulations and Parameter Identifiability in the Community Land Model Evidence from MOPEX Basins  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

With the emergence of earth system models as important tools for understanding and predicting climate change and implications to mitigation and adaptation, it has become increasingly important to assess the fidelity of the land component within earth system models to capture realistic hydrological processes and their response to the changing climate and quantify the associated uncertainties. This study investigates the sensitivity of runoff simulations to major hydrologic parameters in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) by integrating CLM4 with a stochastic exploratory sensitivity analysis framework at 20 selected watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) spanning a wide range of climate and site conditions. We found that for runoff simulations, the most significant parameters are those related to the subsurface runoff parameterizations. Soil texture related parameters and surface runoff parameters are of secondary significance. Moreover, climate and soil conditions play important roles in the parameter sensitivity. In general, site conditions within water-limited hydrologic regimes and with finer soil texture result in stronger sensitivity of output variables, such as runoff and its surface and subsurface components, to the input parameters in CLM4. This study demonstrated the feasibility of parameter inversion for CLM4 using streamflow observations to improve runoff simulations. By ranking the significance of the input parameters, we showed that the parameter set dimensionality could be reduced for CLM4 parameter calibration under different hydrologic and climatic regimes so that the inverse problem is less ill posed.

Huang, Maoyi; Hou, Zhangshuan; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ke, Yinghai; Liu, Ying; Fang, Zhufeng; Sun, Yu

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

306

Diesel Fuel Price Pass-through  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Diesel Fuel Price Pass-through Diesel Fuel Price Pass-through EIA Home > Petroleum > Petroleum Feature Articles Diesel Fuel Price Pass-through Printer-Friendly PDF Diesel Fuel Price Pass-through by Michael Burdette and John Zyren* Over the past several years, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has extensively studied the relationships between wholesale and retail markets for petroleum products. Beginning with gasoline, we looked at the two ends of the pricing structure in the U.S. market: daily spot prices, which capture sales of large quantities of product between refiners, importers/exporters, and traders; and weekly retail prices, measured at local gasoline outlets nationwide. In the course of this analysis, EIA has found that the relationships between spot and retail prices are consistent and predictable, to the extent that changes in spot prices can be used to forecast subsequent changes in retail prices for the appropriate regions. This article represents the extension of this type of analysis and modeling into the diesel fuel markets.

307

The relationship between oil prices and the Nigerian stock market. An analysis based on fractional integration and cointegration  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract We examine the relationship between oil prices and the stock market in Nigeria. We focus on the degree of persistence of the series, and based on the similarities observed between the two series, a fractionally cointegrated framework is proposed. The results indicate that the two series display a similar order of integration, which is close to, although above 1. Testing for cointegration, this is decisively rejected since the order of integration in the equilibrium relationship was similar to that of the individual series. However, testing for long memory with oil prices acting as a weakly exogenous regressor, we obtained significant evidence of a positive relationship between the two variables though with a short memory effect, this relation being significant only during the following three months.

Luis A. Gil-Alana; OlaOluwa S. Yaya

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES NOVEMBER 1958 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE retail prices for selected canned fish items. The retail prices as contained herein for several types, 500 or over, and prices were obtained by personal visits of agents to the retail stores

309

CANNED FISH RETAIL .PRICES,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CANNED FISH RETAIL .PRICES, OC1rOIBrE~ UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INT...n.~""n FISH retail prices for selected canned fish items. The retail prices as contained herein for several types, 500 or over, and prices were obtained by personal visits of agents to the retail stores

310

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost...  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

0 Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - 2010 Report describes the 2010 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing...

311

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for two-phase flow in the vicinity of the repository in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Undisturbed conditions  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant are presented for two-phase flow the vicinity of the repository under undisturbed conditions. Techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, partial correlation analysis and rank transformation are used to investigate brine inflow, gas generation repository pressure, brine saturation and brine and gas outflow. Of the variables under study, repository pressure is potentially the most important due to its influence on spallings and direct brine releases, with the uncertainty in its value being dominated by the extent to which the microbial degradation of cellulose takes place, the rate at which the corrosion of steel takes place, and the amount of brine that drains from the surrounding disturbed rock zone into the repository.

HELTON,JON CRAIG; BEAN,J.E.; ECONOMY,K.; GARNER,J.W.; MACKINNON,ROBERT J.; MILLER,JOEL D.; SCHREIBER,JAMES D.; VAUGHN,PALMER

2000-05-19T23:59:59.000Z

312

State energy price and expenditure report 1993  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates individually for the 50 states and the District of Columbia and in aggregate for the US. The five economic sectors used in SEPER correspond to those used in SEDR and are residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility. Documentation in appendices describe how the price estimates are developed, provide conversion factors for measures used in the energy analysis, and include a glossary. 65 tabs.

NONE

1995-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

313

Uncertainty Analysis of Runoff Simulations and Parameter Identifiability in the Community Land Model: Evidence from MOPEX Basins  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In this study, the authors applied version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) integrated with an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework to 20 selected watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) spanning a wide range of ...

Maoyi Huang; Zhangshuan Hou; L. Ruby Leung; Yinghai Ke; Ying Liu; Zhufeng Fang; Yu Sun

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

314

Managing Short-Term Electricity Contracts Under Uncertainty: A Minimax Approach  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, the price of which follows supply and demand imbalances. Electricity prices, which were tightly controlled that occurred in the Midwest during the week of June 22, 1998, when the day-ahead electricity price departedManaging Short-Term Electricity Contracts Under Uncertainty: A Minimax Approach Samer Takriti

Ahmed, Shabbir

315

International black tea market integration and price discovery  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

(2000) considered price relationships among three milk markets in Kyrgyzstan. They used cointegration analysis to see if milk market prices of two private sector and one government sector markets are integrated. They concluded that two private sector...

Dharmasena, Kalu Arachchillage Senarath Dhananjaya Bandara

2004-09-30T23:59:59.000Z

316

MTBE Prices Responded to Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: On top of the usual factors impacting gasoline prices, natural gas has had some influence recently. MTBE is an oxygenate used in most of the RFG consumed in the U.S. Generally, it follows gasoline prices and its own supply/demand balance factors. But this winter, we saw it respond strongly to natural gas prices. MTBE is made from methanol and isobutylene, which in turn come from methane and butane. Both methane and butane come from natural gas streams. Until this year, the price of natural gas has been so low that it had little effect. But the surge that occurred in December and January pulled MTBE up . Keep in mind that about 11% MTBE is used in a gallon of RFG, so a 30 cent increase in MTBE is only about a 3 cent increase in the price of RFG. While we look ahead at this summer, natural gas prices should be

317

Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

LBNL-5096E Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated of California. #12;Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated.e. dynamic prices). Using a regression-based baseline model, we define several Demand Response (DR

318

Investment under uncertainty, competition and regulation Adrien Nguyen Huu1  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Investment under uncertainty, competition and regulation Adrien Nguyen Huu1 1 IMPA, Estrada Dona of preemptive investment. We recall the rigorous framework of M. Grasselli, V. Lecl`ere and M. Ludkovsky investment valuation. The latter uses recent methods from stochastic finance to price uncertainty

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

319

Regional Retail Gasoline Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Notes: Retail gasoline prices, like those for distillate fuels, have hit record prices nationally and in several regions this year. The national average regular gasoline price peaked at $1.68 per gallon in mid-June, but quickly declined, and now stands at $1.45, 17 cents higher than a year ago. Two regions, in particular, experienced sharp gasoline price runups this year. California, which often has some of the highest prices in the nation, saw prices peak near $1.85 in mid-September, while the Midwest had average prices over $1.87 in mid-June. Local prices at some stations in both areas hit levels well over $2.00 per gallon. The reasons for the regional price runups differed significantly. In the Midwest, the introduction of Phase 2 RFG was hampered by low stocks,

320

Virginia Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Virginia Virginia Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Alexandria AlexandriaGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Arlington ArlingtonGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Chesapeake ChesapeakeGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Hampton HamptonGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Newport News NewportNewsGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Norfolk NorfolkGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Portsmouth PortsmouthGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Richmond RichmondGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Virginia Beach VirginiaBeachGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Illinois Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Illinois Illinois Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Arlington Heights ArlingtonHeightsGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Aurora AuroraGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Bloomington BloomingtonGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Champaign ChampaignGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Chicago ChicagoGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Decatur DecaturGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Elgin ElginGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Joliet JolietGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Naperville NapervilleGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com

322

Oklahoma Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Oklahoma Oklahoma Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Lawton LawtonGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Norman NormanGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Oklahoma City OklahomaCityGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Tulsa TulsaGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Other Oklahoma Cities OklahomaGasPrices.com (search by city or ZIP code) - GasBuddy.com Oklahoma Gas Prices (selected cities) - GasBuddy.com Oklahoma Gas Prices (organized by county) - Automotive.com Gas Prices of the United States: Oklahoma Cities - MapQuest Oklahoma Gas Prices (organized by county, search by ZIP code) -

323

Tennessee Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Tennessee Tennessee Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Chattanooga ChattanoogaGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Clarksville ClarksvilleGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Knoxville KnoxvilleGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Memphis MemphisGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Murfreesboro MurfreesboroGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Nashville NashvilleGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Other Tennessee Cities TennesseeGasPrices.com (search by city or ZIP code) - GasBuddy.com Tennessee Gas Prices (selected cities) - GasBuddy.com Tennessee Gas Prices (organized by county) - Automotive.com

324

Wisconsin Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Wisconsin Wisconsin Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Appleton AppletonGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Eau Claire EauClaireGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Green Bay GreenBayGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Kenosha KenoshaGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Madison MadisonGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Milwaukee MilwaukeeGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Other Wisconsin Cities WisconsinGasPrices.com (search by city or ZIP code) - GasBuddy.com Wisconsin Gas Prices (selected cities) - GasBuddy.com Wisconsin Gas Prices (organized by county) - Automotive.com

325

Maryland Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Maryland Maryland Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Baltimore BaltimoreGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Bethesda BethesdaGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Bowie BowieGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Frederick FrederickGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Gaithersburg GaithersburgGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Other Maryland Cities MarylandGasPrices.com (search by city or ZIP code) - GasBuddy.com Maryland Gas Prices (selected cities) - GasBuddy.com Maryland Gas Prices (organized by county) - Automotive.com Gas Prices of the United States: Maryland Cities - MapQuest

326

Massachusetts Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Massachusetts Massachusetts Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Boston BostonGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Brockton BrocktonGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Cambridge CambridgeGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Fall River FallRiverGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Haverhill HaverhillGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Lawrence LawrenceGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Lowell LowellGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com New Bedford NewBedfordGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Taunton TauntonGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com

327

Ohio Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Ohio Ohio Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Akron AkronGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Cincinnati CincinnatiGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Cleveland ClevelandGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Columbus ColumbusGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Dayton DaytonGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Toledo ToledoGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Other Ohio Cities OhioGasPrices.com (search by city or ZIP code) - GasBuddy.com Ohio Gas Prices (selected cities) - GasBuddy.com Ohio Gas Prices (organized by county) - Automotive.com

328

Assessment of Uncertainty in Cloud Radiative Effects and Heating Rates through Retrieval Algorithm Differences: Analysis using 3-years of ARM data at Darwin, Australia  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Ground-based radar and lidar observations obtained at the Department of Energys Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Programs Tropical Western Pacific site located in Darwin, Australia are used to retrieve ice cloud properties in anvil and cirrus clouds. Cloud microphysical properties derived from four different retrieval algorithms (two radar-lidar and two radar only algorithms) are compared by examining mean profiles and probability density functions of effective radius (Re), ice water content (IWC), extinction, ice number concentration, ice crystal fall speed, and vertical air velocity. Retrieval algorithm uncertainty is quantified using radiative flux closure exercises. The effect of uncertainty in retrieved quantities on the cloud radiative effect and radiative heating rates are presented. Our analysis shows that IWC compares well among algorithms, but Re shows significant discrepancies, which is attributed primarily to assumptions of particle shape. Uncertainty in Re and IWC translates into sometimes-large differences in cloud radiative effect (CRE) though the majority of cases have a CRE difference of roughly 10 W m-2 on average. These differences, which we believe are primarily driven by the uncertainty in Re, can cause up to 2 K/day difference in the radiative heating rates between algorithms.

Comstock, Jennifer M.; Protat, Alain; McFarlane, Sally A.; Delanoe, Julien; Deng, Min

2013-05-22T23:59:59.000Z

329

The effect of the financial sector on the evolution of oil prices: Analysis of the contribution of the futures market to the price discovery process in the WTI spot market  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

The aim of this article is to empirically measure the contribution of the futures market to the price discovery process in the spot market for benchmark crude oils, specifically that for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). For this purpose, we test the hypothesis that the recent evolution of the financial markets has affected the future oil market so as to increase its contribution to the price discovery process of the spot market. We modeled the relation between WTI spot and future prices as a cointegration relation. By using the Kalman filter technique, it was possible to obtain a time-varying measure of the contribution of future markets to the price discovery mechanism. The results show that in the case of WTI, the contribution of the futures market has been increasing, especially between 2003 and 2008 and then again after the start of 2009, evidencing the growing importance of factors particular to the financial markets in determining oil prices in recent years. During 2009, the spot prices adjusted to agents' future expectations rather than to the current supply and demand conditions.

Renan Silvrio; Alexandre Szklo

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

State Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 State Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price Volume Price Pipeline (Canada) Eastport, ID..................... 830,351 3.79 802,182 4.71 759,647 2.83 R 623,652 4.72 707,885 5.30 Calais, ME ...................... 123,521 4.50 152,486 4.47 124,991 3.49 R 115,301 R 5.85 102,292 6.44 Detroit, MI ....................... 6,171 3.82 405 9.34 1,948 3.56 2,514 5.96 1,117 6.27 Marysville, MI.................. 0 -- 0 -- 74 3.95 0 -- 303 7.80 St. Clair, MI..................... 17,198 4.45 21,747 4.54 28,441 3.19 5,202 5.84 22,853 6.50 International Falls, MN .... 3,022 2.77 617 4.85 602 3.01 0 -- 0 -- Noyes, MN...................... 469,361 3.75 448,898 4.19 402,621 3.09 R 359,801 5.04 399,298 5.77 Warroad, MN .................. 4,576 3.95 5,318 4.52

331

What Drives U.S. Gasoline Prices?  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

This analysis provides context for considering the impact of rising domestic light crude oil production on the price that U.S. consumers pay for gasoline, and provides a framework to consider how changes to existing U.S. crude oil export restrictions might affect gasoline prices.

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty ·Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty ·When the nature of the test precludes

333

Uncertainty Measurement for Trace Element Analysis of Uranium and Plutonium Samples by Inductively Coupled Plasma-Atomic Emission Spectrometry (ICP-AES) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The measurement uncertainty estimatino associated with trace element analysis of impurities in U and Pu was evaluated using the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty Measurement (GUM). I this evalution the uncertainty sources were identified and standard uncertainties for the components were categorized as either Type A or B. The combined standard uncertainty was calculated and a coverage factor k = 2 was applied to obtain the expanded uncertainty, U. The ICP-AES and ICP-MS methods used were deveoped for the multi-element analysis of U and Pu samples. A typical analytical run consists of standards, process blanks, samples, matrix spiked samples, post digestion spiked samples and independent calibration verification standards. The uncertainty estimation was performed on U and Pu samples that have been analyzed previously as part of the U and Pu Sample Exchange Programs. Control chart results and data from the U and Pu metal exchange programs were combined with the GUM into a concentration dependent estimate of the expanded uncertainty. Comparison of trace element uncertainties obtained using this model was compared to those obtained for trace element results as part of the Exchange programs. This process was completed for all trace elements that were determined to be above the detection limit for the U and Pu samples.

Gallimore, David L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-06-13T23:59:59.000Z

334

Natural Gas Spot Prices:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 of 26 4 of 26 Notes: Spot wellhead prices last summer averaged well over $4.00 per thousand cubic feet during a normally low-price season. During the fall, these prices stayed above $5.00 per thousand cubic feet, more than double the year-ago average price. In January, the spot wellhead price averaged a record $8.98 per thousand cubic feet. Spot prices at the wellhead have never been this high for such a prolonged period. The chief reason for these sustained high gas prices was, and still is, uneasiness about the supply situation. Concern about the adequacy of winter supplies loomed throughout most of the summer and fall as storage levels remained significantly depressed. Last December, the most severe assumptions about low storage levels became real, when the spot price

335

Residential propane price  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

propane price decrease The average retail price for propane is 2.37 per gallon, down 1.3 cents from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy...

336

Residential propane price  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

propane price decreases The average retail price for propane is 2.35 per gallon, down 1.1 cents from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy...

337

Residential propane price  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

propane price decreases The average retail price for propane is 2.36 per gallon, down 1 cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy...

338

The Minimum Price Contract  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

A minimum price contract is one of many tools a marketer may use to better manage price and production risk while trying to achieve financial goals and objectives. This publication discusses the advantages and disadvantages involved...

Waller, Mark L.; Amosson, Stephen H.; Welch, Mark; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.

2008-10-17T23:59:59.000Z

339

Residential propane prices increase  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 3.2 cents from a week ago to 2.86 per gallon. That's up 59.3 cents from a year ago, based on the residential...

340

Residential propane prices decreases  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

5, 2014 Residential propane prices decreases The average retail price for propane fell to 3.89 per gallon, that's down 11.9 cents from a week ago, based on the residential heating...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

Residential propane prices increase  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 10.3 cents from a week ago to 2.96 per gallon. That's up 68.1 cents from a year ago, based on the residential...

342

Residential propane prices increase  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 3.9 cents from a week ago to 2.80 per gallon. That's up 53.7 cents from a year ago, based on the residential...

343

Residential propane prices increase  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 5.5 cents per gallon from last week to 2.62 per gallon; up 37.4 cents from a year ago, based on the residential...

344

Residential propane prices surges  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

propane prices surges The average retail price for propane rose to an all-time high of 4.01 a gallon, that's up 1.05 from a week ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey...

345

Residential propane price increases  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

propane price increases The average retail price for propane is 2.41 per gallon, up 6-tenths of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S....

346

Residential propane prices surges  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Midwest and Northeast propane prices much higher this winter than last year Households that heat with propane will pay for that propane at prices averaging 39 percent higher in the...

347

Residential propane prices stable  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

propane price decreases The average retail price for propane is 2.40 per gallon, down 9-tenths of a cent from last week, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S....

348

Residential propane price decreases  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6, 2014 Residential propane price decreases The average retail price for propane fell to 3.48 per gallon, down 15.9 cents from a week ago, based on the residential heating fuel...

349

Residential propane prices surges  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

9, 2014 Residential propane price decreases The average retail price for propane fell to 3.08 per gallon, down 8.6 cents from a week ago, based on the residential heating fuel...

350

Residential propane prices increase  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 4.8 cents from a week ago to 2.76 per gallon. That's up 51.2 cents from a year ago, based on the residential...

351

Residential propane prices increase  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 2.5 cents from a week ago to 2.83 per gallon. That's up 56 cents from a year ago, based on the residential...

352

Residential propane price decreases  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

05, 2014 Residential propane price decreases The average retail price for propane fell to 2.40 per gallon, down 1.2 cents from a week ago, based on the residential heating fuel...

353

Residential propane prices increase  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose to 2.40 per gallon, up 1.1 cents from a week ago, based on the residential heating fuel survey by the U.S. Energy...

354

Residential propane prices surges  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2, 2014 Residential propane price decreases The average retail price for propane fell to 3.17 per gallon, down 13.1 cents from a week ago, based on the residential heating fuel...

355

Residential propane prices increase  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 2.3 cents per gallon from last week to 2.57 per gallon; up 32.2 cents from a year ago, based on the residential...

356

Residential propane prices available  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

propane prices available The average retail price for propane is 2.30 per gallon, based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly residential heating fuel survey....

357

Residential propane prices increase  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

propane prices increase The average retail price for propane rose 9.1 cents from a week ago to 2.71 per gallon. That's up 46.9 cents from a year ago, based on the residential...

358

Residential propane prices stable  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

propane prices stable The average retail price for propane is 2.37 per gallon. That's down 4-tenths of a penny from a week ago, based on the U.S. Energy Information...

359

Residential propane prices surges  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

5, 2014 Residential propane price decreases The average retail price for propane fell to 3.30 per gallon, down 17.5 cents from a week ago, based on the residential heating fuel...

360

Livestock Seasonal Price Variation  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Seasonal price movements can be measured and used to help in marketing livestock. This publication includes 10-year seasonal price indexes for several livestock categories, and explains how to interpret and use the information....

Davis, Ernest E.; Sartwelle III, James D.; Mintert, James R.

1999-09-21T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

Residential heating oil price  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

heating oil price decreases The average retail price for home heating oil fell 6.3 cents from a week ago to 2.91 per gallon. That's down 1.10 from a year ago, based on the...

362

Residential heating oil price  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

heating oil price decreases The average retail price for home heating oil fell 7.5 cents from a week ago to 2.84 per gallon. That's down 1.22 from a year ago, based on the...

363

Residential heating oil price  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

heating oil price decreases The average retail price for home heating oil fell 7.6 cents from a week ago to 2.97 per gallon. That's down 1.05 from a year ago, based on the...

364

Residential heating oil price  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

heating oil price decreases The average retail price for home heating oil fell 3.6 cents from a week ago to 3.04 per gallon. That's down 99.4 cents from a year ago, based on the...

365

California Gasoline Price Study  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

DIRECTOR, PETROLEUM DIVISION DIRECTOR, PETROLEUM DIVISION ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND RESOURCES COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT REFORM U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MAY 9, 2005 Mr. Chairman, I appreciate this opportunity to testify today on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) insights into factors affecting recent gasoline prices. EIA is the statutorily chartered statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. We are charged with providing objective, timely, and relevant data, analysis, and projections for the use of the Department of Energy, other Government agencies, the U.S. Congress, and the public. We produce data and analysis reports that are meant to assist policy makers in determining energy policy. Because we have an element of

366

Mr. Harry Price  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

... THROUGH the death of Mr. Harry Price on March 29, psychical research has lost its most distinguished journalist and writer ...

1948-04-24T23:59:59.000Z

367

Uncertainty quantification of volumetric and material balance analysis of gas reservoirs with water influx using a Bayesian framework  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

data, such as pressure and production data, are available. In this work, I propose a methodology for using a Bayesian approach to quantify the uncertainty of original gas in place (G), aquifer productivity index (J), and the volume of the aquifer (Wi...

Aprilia, Asti Wulandari

2007-04-25T23:59:59.000Z

368

Experimental Uncertainties (Errors) Sources of Experimental Uncertainties (Experimental Errors)  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the preparation of the lab report. A calculator should 1. Bevington, P. R., Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969. 2. Taylor, J. R., An introduction to uncertainty analysis in the lab. In this laboratory, we keep to a very simple form of error analysis, our purpose being more

Mukasyan, Alexander

369

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES JUNE ll959 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDUFE, Commissioner CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES JUNE 1959 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch Fisheries has contracted with the Bureau of Labo r Statistics to obtain average retail prices for selected

370

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES MARCH 1959 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE, Commissioner CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES MARCH 1959 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch canned fish items. The retail prices as contain d h rein for s veral types of canned tuna, canned salmon

371

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES JA.NUARY 11959 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE, Commissioner CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES JANUARY 195 9 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch Fisheries has contracted with the Bureau of Labor Statistics to obtain average retail prices for se lected

372

California Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 View History Wellhead Price 8.38 3.96 4.87 1967-2010 Imports Price 9.15 2.83 4.76 3.57 -- 3.59 2007-2013 Exports Price 8.06 3.76 4.51 4.18 2.90 3.89...

373

Connecticut Natural Gas Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 View History Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 10.24 6.81 6.58 5.92 5.12 5.42 1984-2013 Residential Price 17.85 14.81 14.93...

374

WEEK'S PRICE CHANGES  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Stauffer reduces prices on a high energy fuel raw materialboron trichloride. ... In 100-pound cylinders the chemical's price was dropped from $3.99 to $1.70 a pound, and in ton cylinders it is now priced at $1.25 a pound. ...

1957-07-29T23:59:59.000Z

375

Utility spot pricing study : Wisconsin  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Spot pricing covers a range of electric utility pricing structures which relate the marginal costs of electric generation to the prices seen by utility customers. At the shortest time frames prices change every five ...

Caramanis, Michael C.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

376

Grid Pricing of Fed Cattle  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

There are several value-based fed cattle pricing systems, including formula pricing, price grids and alliances. This publication describes the different cattle pricing methods and helps you decide which is best for you....

Schroeder, Ted C.; Hogan, Robert J.; Anderson, David P.

2009-03-02T23:59:59.000Z

377

Cost Recovery from Congestion Tolls with Long-run Uncertainty Robin Lindsey  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Cost Recovery from Congestion Tolls with Long-run Uncertainty Robin Lindsey Sauder School Key words: Congestion pricing; cost recovery; road capacity; cost uncertainty; demand uncertainty; irreversible investment JEL codes: D62, H21, R41, R42, R48 Abstract According to the seminal Cost Recovery

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

378

Average Commercial Price  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Citygate Price Residential Price Commercial Price Industrial Price Electric Power Price Gross Withdrawals Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Oil Wells Gross Withdrawals From Shale Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Coalbed Wells Repressuring Nonhydrocarbon Gases Removed Vented and Flared Marketed Production NGPL Production, Gaseous Equivalent Dry Production Imports By Pipeline LNG Imports Exports Exports By Pipeline LNG Exports Underground Storage Capacity Gas in Underground Storage Base Gas in Underground Storage Working Gas in Underground Storage Underground Storage Injections Underground Storage Withdrawals Underground Storage Net Withdrawals Total Consumption Lease and Plant Fuel Consumption Pipeline & Distribution Use Delivered to Consumers Residential Commercial Industrial Vehicle Fuel Electric Power Period: Monthly Annual

379

Average Commercial Price  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Citygate Price Residential Price Commercial Price Industrial Price Electric Power Price Gross Withdrawals Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Oil Wells Gross Withdrawals From Shale Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Coalbed Wells Repressuring Nonhydrocarbon Gases Removed Vented and Flared Marketed Production NGPL Production, Gaseous Equivalent Dry Production Imports By Pipeline LNG Imports Exports Exports By Pipeline LNG Exports Underground Storage Capacity Gas in Underground Storage Base Gas in Underground Storage Working Gas in Underground Storage Underground Storage Injections Underground Storage Withdrawals Underground Storage Net Withdrawals Total Consumption Lease and Plant Fuel Consumption Pipeline & Distribution Use Delivered to Consumers Residential Commercial Industrial Vehicle Fuel Electric Power Period: Monthly Annual

380

Natural Gas Industrial Price  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Citygate Price Residential Price Commercial Price Industrial Price Electric Power Price Gross Withdrawals Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Oil Wells Gross Withdrawals From Shale Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Coalbed Wells Repressuring Nonhydrocarbon Gases Removed Vented and Flared Marketed Production NGPL Production, Gaseous Equivalent Dry Production Imports By Pipeline LNG Imports Exports Exports By Pipeline LNG Exports Underground Storage Capacity Gas in Underground Storage Base Gas in Underground Storage Working Gas in Underground Storage Underground Storage Injections Underground Storage Withdrawals Underground Storage Net Withdrawals Total Consumption Lease and Plant Fuel Consumption Pipeline & Distribution Use Delivered to Consumers Residential Commercial Industrial Vehicle Fuel Electric Power Period: Monthly Annual

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

Average Residential Price  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Citygate Price Residential Price Commercial Price Industrial Price Electric Power Price Gross Withdrawals Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Oil Wells Gross Withdrawals From Shale Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Coalbed Wells Repressuring Nonhydrocarbon Gases Removed Vented and Flared Marketed Production NGPL Production, Gaseous Equivalent Dry Production Imports By Pipeline LNG Imports Exports Exports By Pipeline LNG Exports Underground Storage Capacity Gas in Underground Storage Base Gas in Underground Storage Working Gas in Underground Storage Underground Storage Injections Underground Storage Withdrawals Underground Storage Net Withdrawals Total Consumption Lease and Plant Fuel Consumption Pipeline & Distribution Use Delivered to Consumers Residential Commercial Industrial Vehicle Fuel Electric Power Period: Monthly Annual

382

Average Residential Price  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Citygate Price Residential Price Commercial Price Industrial Price Electric Power Price Gross Withdrawals Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Oil Wells Gross Withdrawals From Shale Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Coalbed Wells Repressuring Nonhydrocarbon Gases Removed Vented and Flared Marketed Production NGPL Production, Gaseous Equivalent Dry Production Imports By Pipeline LNG Imports Exports Exports By Pipeline LNG Exports Underground Storage Capacity Gas in Underground Storage Base Gas in Underground Storage Working Gas in Underground Storage Underground Storage Injections Underground Storage Withdrawals Underground Storage Net Withdrawals Total Consumption Lease and Plant Fuel Consumption Pipeline & Distribution Use Delivered to Consumers Residential Commercial Industrial Vehicle Fuel Electric Power Period: Monthly Annual

383

Montana Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 5.72 7.50 3.16 3.64 1967-2010 Imports Price 6.66 8.22 3.88 4.13 3.75 2.45 1989-2012 Exports Price 6.16 8.14 3.63 4.05 3.82 2.40 1989-2012 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 6.42 7.71 5.63 5.17 5.11 4.23 1984-2012 Residential Price 9.91 11.45 9.50 8.64 8.80 8.06 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 99.9 99.9 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 1989-2012 Commercial Price 9.76 11.32 9.41 8.54 8.66 7.98 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 78.5 79.6 49.2 54.6 53.3 52.9 1990-2012 Industrial Price 9.75 11.04 9.06 8.07 8.13 7.54 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices

384

Louisiana Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 7.02 8.73 3.82 4.23 1967-2010 Imports Price 6.98 9.76 3.89 4.84 7.57 7.98 1989-2012 Exports Price -- -- -- 7.07 9.63 11.80 2007-2012 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 7.22 9.58 5.96 5.43 5.67 3.48 1984-2012 Residential Price 14.20 15.49 13.15 11.73 11.37 11.54 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 11.83 13.52 10.46 9.88 9.36 8.44 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 98.0 98.4 92.0 85.9 83.6 78.0 1990-2012 Industrial Price 7.08 9.32 4.31 4.68 4.25 2.96 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices

385

Nebraska Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 4.86 6.22 2.97 3.98 1967-2010 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 7.67 8.12 5.87 5.62 5.11 4.31 1984-2012 Residential Price 11.15 11.11 9.34 8.95 8.84 8.68 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 85.7 87.1 87.8 87.4 87.3 85.8 1989-2012 Commercial Price 9.16 9.62 7.44 7.08 6.69 6.19 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 63.9 57.5 61.3 60.6 60.6 55.8 1990-2012 Industrial Price 7.97 9.12 6.02 5.85 5.61 4.34 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 9.7 10.2 8.9 8.2 7.6 6.8 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price 15.10 15.29 1994-2012 Electric Power Price

386

Consumer Prices During  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

City Gate City Gate City gate prices represent the total cost paid by gas distribu- tion companies for gas received at the point where the gas is physically transferred from a pipeline company or trans- mission system. This price is intended to reflect all charges for the acquisition, storage, and transportation of gas as well as other charges associated with the LDC's obtaining the gas for sale to consumers. Prices paid at the city gate by local distribution companies rose substantially between 1995 and 1996, climbing from $2.78 per thousand cubic feet to $3.27, an increase of 18 percent. Residential Residential consumers pay the highest price for natural gas. It increased to $6.34 per thousand cubic feet from the 1995 price of $6.06 per thousand cubic feet. However, the 1996 price was 1 percent lower than the 1994 price. In recent years, only modest changes in constant dollars have been

387

Connecticut Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Connecticut Connecticut Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Bridgeport BridgeportGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Hartford HartfordGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com New Haven NewHavenGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Stamford Automotive.com MapQuest.com Waterbury Automotive.com MapQuest.com West Hartford Automotive.com MapQuest.com Other Connecticut Cities ConnecticutGasPrices.com (search by city or ZIP code) - GasBuddy.com Connecticut Gas Prices (selected cities) - GasBuddy.com Connecticut Gas Prices (organized by county) - Automotive.com Gas Prices of the United States: Connecticut Cities - MapQuest

388

Average Residential Price  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Pipeline and Distribution Use Price Citygate Price Residential Price Commercial Price Industrial Price Vehicle Fuel Price Electric Power Price Proved Reserves as of 12/31 Reserves Adjustments Reserves Revision Increases Reserves Revision Decreases Reserves Sales Reserves Acquisitions Reserves Extensions Reserves New Field Discoveries New Reservoir Discoveries in Old Fields Estimated Production Number of Producing Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Oil Wells Gross Withdrawals From Shale Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Coalbed Wells Repressuring Nonhydrocarbon Gases Removed Vented and Flared Marketed Production Natural Gas Processed NGPL Production, Gaseous Equivalent Dry Production Imports By Pipeline LNG Imports Exports Exports By Pipeline LNG Exports Underground Storage Capacity Underground Storage Injections Underground Storage Withdrawals Underground Storage Net Withdrawals LNG Storage Additions LNG Storage Withdrawals LNG Storage Net Withdrawals Total Consumption Lease and Plant Fuel Consumption Lease Fuel Plant Fuel Pipeline & Distribution Use Delivered to Consumers Residential Commercial Industrial Vehicle Fuel Electric Power Period: Monthly Annual

389

Fundamentals Explain High Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 Notes: One can use a simple model to deal with price/fundamental relationships. This one predicts monthly average WTI price as a function of OECD total petroleum stock deviations from the normal levels . The graph shows the model as it begins predicting prices in 1992. It shows how well the model has predicted not only the direction, but the magnitude of prices over this 8+ year period. While the model is simple and not perfect, it does predict the overall trends and, in particular, the recent rise in prices. It also shows that prices may have over-shot the fundamental balance for a while -- at least partially due to speculative concerns over Mideast tensions, winter supply adequacy, and Iraq's export policies. Prices now seem to be correcting, and may even undershoot briefly

390

Average Residential Price  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Pipeline and Distribution Use Price Citygate Price Residential Price Commercial Price Industrial Price Vehicle Fuel Price Electric Power Price Proved Reserves as of 12/31 Reserves Adjustments Reserves Revision Increases Reserves Revision Decreases Reserves Sales Reserves Acquisitions Reserves Extensions Reserves New Field Discoveries New Reservoir Discoveries in Old Fields Estimated Production Number of Producing Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Oil Wells Gross Withdrawals From Shale Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Coalbed Wells Repressuring Nonhydrocarbon Gases Removed Vented and Flared Marketed Production Natural Gas Processed NGPL Production, Gaseous Equivalent Dry Production Imports By Pipeline LNG Imports Exports Exports By Pipeline LNG Exports Underground Storage Capacity Underground Storage Injections Underground Storage Withdrawals Underground Storage Net Withdrawals LNG Storage Additions LNG Storage Withdrawals LNG Storage Net Withdrawals Total Consumption Lease and Plant Fuel Consumption Lease Fuel Plant Fuel Pipeline & Distribution Use Delivered to Consumers Residential Commercial Industrial Vehicle Fuel Electric Power Period: Monthly Annual

391

Average Commercial Price  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Pipeline and Distribution Use Price Citygate Price Residential Price Commercial Price Industrial Price Vehicle Fuel Price Electric Power Price Proved Reserves as of 12/31 Reserves Adjustments Reserves Revision Increases Reserves Revision Decreases Reserves Sales Reserves Acquisitions Reserves Extensions Reserves New Field Discoveries New Reservoir Discoveries in Old Fields Estimated Production Number of Producing Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Oil Wells Gross Withdrawals From Shale Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Coalbed Wells Repressuring Nonhydrocarbon Gases Removed Vented and Flared Marketed Production Natural Gas Processed NGPL Production, Gaseous Equivalent Dry Production Imports By Pipeline LNG Imports Exports Exports By Pipeline LNG Exports Underground Storage Capacity Underground Storage Injections Underground Storage Withdrawals Underground Storage Net Withdrawals LNG Storage Additions LNG Storage Withdrawals LNG Storage Net Withdrawals Total Consumption Lease and Plant Fuel Consumption Lease Fuel Plant Fuel Pipeline & Distribution Use Delivered to Consumers Residential Commercial Industrial Vehicle Fuel Electric Power Period: Monthly Annual

392

DAKOTA, a multilevel parellel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis:version 4.0 uers's manual.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the DAKOTA software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

Griffin, Joshua D. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Eldred, Michael Scott; Martinez-Canales, Monica L. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Watson, Jean-Paul; Kolda, Tamara Gibson (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Giunta, Anthony Andrew; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Williams, Pamela J. (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandai National Labs, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Dunlavy, Daniel M.; Eddy, John P.; Hart, William Eugene; Brown, Shannon L.

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

393

Dakota, a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis:version 4.0 developers manual.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a developers manual for the DAKOTA software and describes the DAKOTA class hierarchies and their interrelationships. It derives directly from annotation of the actual source code and provides detailed class documentation, including all member functions and attributes.

Griffin, Joshua D. (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Eldred, Michael Scott; Martinez-Canales, Monica L. (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Watson, Jean-Paul; Kolda, Tamara Gibson (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Giunta, Anthony Andrew; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Williams, Pamela J. (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National lababoratory, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Dunlavy, Daniel M.; Eddy, John P.; Hart, William Eugene; Brown, Shannon L.

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

394

DAKOTA : a multilevel parallel object-oriented framework for design optimization, parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis. Version 5.0, user's manual.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. DAKOTA contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic finite element methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the DAKOTA toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers. This report serves as a user's manual for the DAKOTA software and provides capability overviews and procedures for software execution, as well as a variety of example studies.

Eldred, Michael Scott; Dalbey, Keith R.; Bohnhoff, William J.; Adams, Brian M.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Hough, Patricia Diane (Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA); Gay, David M.; Eddy, John P.; Haskell, Karen H.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

395

Large-Scale Uncertainty and Error Analysis for Time-dependent Fluid/Structure Interactions in Wind Turbine Applications  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

The following is the final report covering the entire period of this aforementioned grant, June 1, 2011 - May 31, 2013 for the portion of the effort corresponding to Stanford University (SU). SU has partnered with Sandia National Laboratories (PI: Mike S. Eldred) and Purdue University (PI: Dongbin Xiu) to complete this research project and this final report includes those contributions made by the members of the team at Stanford. Dr. Eldred is continuing his contributions to this project under a no-cost extension and his contributions to the overall effort will be detailed at a later time (once his effort has concluded) on a separate project submitted by Sandia National Laboratories. At Stanford, the team is made up of Profs. Alonso, Iaccarino, and Duraisamy, post-doctoral researcher Vinod Lakshminarayan, and graduate student Santiago Padron. At Sandia National Laboratories, the team includes Michael Eldred, Matt Barone, John Jakeman, and Stefan Domino, and at Purdue University, we have Prof. Dongbin Xiu as our main collaborator. The overall objective of this project was to develop a novel, comprehensive methodology for uncertainty quantification by combining stochastic expansions (nonintrusive polynomial chaos and stochastic collocation), the adjoint approach, and fusion with experimental data to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties from random variable, random field, and model form sources. The expected outcomes of this activity were detailed in the proposal and are repeated here to set the stage for the results that we have generated during the time period of execution of this project: 1. The rigorous determination of an error budget comprising numerical errors in physical space and statistical errors in stochastic space and its use for optimal allocation of resources; 2. A considerable increase in efficiency when performing uncertainty quantification with a large number of uncertain variables in complex non-linear multi-physics problems; 3. A solution to the long-time integration problem of spectral chaos approaches; 4. A rigorous methodology to account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, to emphasize the most important variables via dimension reduction and dimension-adaptive refinement, and to support fusion with experimental data using Bayesian inference; 5. The application of novel methodologies to time-dependent reliability studies in wind turbine applications including a number of efforts relating to the uncertainty quantification in vertical-axis wind turbine applications. In this report, we summarize all accomplishments in the project (during the time period specified) focusing on advances in UQ algorithms and deployment efforts to the wind turbine application area. Detailed publications in each of these areas have also been completed and are available from the respective conference proceedings and journals as detailed in a later section.

Alonso, Juan J. [Stanford University; Iaccarino, Gianluca [Stanford University

2013-08-25T23:59:59.000Z

396

Price discovery in crude oil futures  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract This study examines price discovery among the two most prominent price benchmarks in the market for crude oil, WTI sweet crude and Brent sweet crude. Using data on the most active futures contracts measured at the one-second frequency, we find that WTI maintains a dominant role in price discovery relative to Brent, with an estimated information share in excess of 80%, over a sample from 2007 to 2012. Our analysis is robust to different decompositions of the sample, over pit-trading sessions and non-pit trading sessions, segmentation of days associated with major economic news releases, and data measured to the millisecond. We find no evidence that the dominant role of WTI in price discovery is diminished by the price spread between Brent that emerged in 2008.

John Elder; Hong Miao; Sanjay Ramchander

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

The Role of Nuclear Power in Reducing Risk of the Fossil Fuel Prices and Diversity of Electricity Generation in Tunisia: A Portfolio Approach  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Given the global energy trend to substitute fossil fuel, the nuclear power has known an important ... degrees of uncertainties related to nuclear and fossil fuel. The higher uncertainty of fossil fuel prices make...

Mohamed Ben Abdelhamid; Chaker Aloui; Corinne Chaton

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

Maryland Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price NA NA NA NA 1967-2010 Imports Price 7.25 9.09 4.05 5.37 5.30 13.82 1999-2012 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 9.24 10.23 8.02 6.49 6.26 5.67 1984-2012 Residential Price 15.17 16.07 13.73 12.44 12.10 12.17 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 79.3 77.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 12.30 13.12 10.87 9.87 10.29 10.00 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 27.3 24.7 1990-2012 Industrial Price 11.59 13.46 10.70 9.05 8.61 8.01 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 7.8 6.3 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.1 1997-2012

399

Alabama Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 7.44 9.65 4.32 4.46 1967-2010 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 8.78 9.84 7.61 6.46 5.80 5.18 1984-2012 Residential Price 18.14 18.30 18.12 15.79 15.08 16.20 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 15.06 15.58 14.94 13.34 12.36 12.55 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 79.8 80.2 78.8 79.3 78.9 76.2 1990-2012 Industrial Price 8.70 10.57 6.48 6.64 5.57 4.35 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 24.0 27.2 27.9 23.7 23.5 22.1 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price -- 17.32 19.17 16.24 11.45 17.99 1990-2012

400

Massachusetts Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Imports Price 7.32 10.34 5.90 4.86 4.77 3.69 1989-2012 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 9.34 10.29 8.29 7.74 7.04 6.03 1984-2012 Residential Price 16.99 17.18 14.85 14.53 13.81 13.22 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 99.9 85.0 85.6 85.4 89.3 87.8 1989-2012 Commercial Price 15.08 15.25 12.85 12.00 11.68 10.68 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 65.3 57.9 56.9 52.1 50.0 48.6 1990-2012 Industrial Price 14.83 15.23 12.07 10.41 10.14 9.82 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 29.9 20.6 21.1 19.4 20.6 17.7 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price 12.84 13.80 12.99 12.48 4.28 14.81 1990-2012

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

Vermont Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Imports Price 8.51 9.74 6.34 6.54 5.81 4.90 1989-2012 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1982-2005 Citygate Price 10.03 10.66 9.33 8.29 7.98 6.63 1984-2012 Residential Price 15.99 18.31 17.29 16.14 16.17 16.73 1980-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 12.79 14.31 12.96 11.82 11.90 12.09 1980-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 100 100 100 100 100 100 1990-2012 Industrial Price 9.08 9.60 7.93 6.57 6.09 4.89 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 78.0 79.6 77.9 77.1 80.9 100.0 1997-2012 Electric Power Price 7.72 9.14 5.66 5.73 5.26 4.14 1997-2012

402

Pennsylvania Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price NA NA NA NA 1967-2010 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 9.35 10.39 7.81 7.04 6.28 5.52 1984-2012 Residential Price 14.66 16.22 14.74 12.90 12.46 11.99 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 91.2 88.6 1989-2012 Commercial Price 12.77 14.29 11.83 10.47 10.42 10.24 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 48.5 42.1 1990-2012 Industrial Price 10.64 12.09 9.19 8.23 9.86 9.58 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 5.4 5.7 4.5 3.8 2.0 1.3 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price 10.83 8.30 5.15 3.76 3.40 7.96 1990-2012

403

Indiana Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 5.78 7.58 4.05 4.13 1967-2010 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 7.83 8.94 5.59 5.52 4.97 4.23 1984-2012 Residential Price 11.29 12.65 10.81 8.63 9.46 8.94 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 96.2 95.0 93.6 94.1 94.6 94.5 1989-2012 Commercial Price 10.20 11.14 9.18 7.55 8.04 7.68 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 78.1 77.9 73.9 72.5 70.2 67.5 1990-2012 Industrial Price 8.45 10.48 6.91 5.65 6.53 6.19 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 7.4 6.7 7.0 5.6 3.5 1.9 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price 6.09 7.94 4.08 5.19 13.24 12.29 1990-2012

404

Florida Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price NA NA NA NA 1967-2010 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 7.97 9.73 5.76 5.49 5.07 3.93 1984-2012 Residential Price 20.61 21.07 20.18 17.89 18.16 18.31 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 98.0 97.7 1989-2012 Commercial Price 13.07 14.45 11.09 10.60 11.14 10.41 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 38.5 37.0 1990-2012 Industrial Price 10.56 11.72 9.41 8.33 8.07 6.96 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.7 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price 12.82 15.56 13.16 17.98 5.56 9.83 1989-2012

405

Utah Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Utah Utah Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Layton LaytonGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Ogden OgdenGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Orem OremGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Provo ProvoGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Salt Lake City SaltLakeCityGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Sandy SandyGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com West Jordan WestJordanGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com West Valley City WestValleyCityGasPrices.com Other Utah Cities UtahGasPrices.com (search by city or ZIP code) - GasBuddy.com Utah Gas Prices (selected cities) - GasBuddy.com

406

Connecticut Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 8.67 10.24 6.81 6.58 5.92 5.12 1984-2012 Residential Price 16.39 17.85 14.81 14.93 13.83 14.17 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 98.2 97.7 97.5 97.3 96.8 96.7 1989-2012 Commercial Price 12.61 13.81 9.92 9.55 8.48 8.40 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 71.5 70.7 69.0 65.4 65.4 65.1 1990-2012 Industrial Price 10.54 12.63 8.44 9.60 9.16 8.83 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 50.0 47.3 37.5 31.1 31.0 32.3 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price 20.57 24.04 15.26 16.31 18.59 13.70 1992-2012 Electric Power Price 7.81 10.48 4.89 5.70 5.09 3.99 1997-2012

407

Oregon Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 5.27 5.33 4.00 4.92 1979-2010 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 8.14 8.82 7.79 6.78 5.84 5.21 1984-2012 Residential Price 14.65 13.89 14.52 12.49 11.76 11.22 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 12.36 11.57 11.86 10.10 9.60 8.91 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 98.5 98.5 98.4 97.4 97.4 96.9 1990-2012 Industrial Price 9.30 9.07 9.70 7.05 6.84 5.87 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 21.8 20.1 18.9 17.1 17.1 16.7 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price 6.59 8.03 7.11 5.61 4.23 4.57 1992-2012

408

Arizona Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 5.98 7.09 3.19 4.11 1967-2010 Exports Price 6.94 8.09 3.79 4.57 4.28 3.07 1989-2012 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 8.25 8.49 7.21 6.59 5.91 4.68 1984-2012 Residential Price 17.21 17.60 17.65 15.87 15.04 15.75 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 12.84 13.01 12.15 10.72 9.99 9.35 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 93.4 93.1 88.0 88.7 87.8 86.6 1990-2012 Industrial Price 10.49 10.47 8.19 7.54 6.86 5.78 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 31.3 29.6 29.1 25.5 24.2 21.4 1997-2012

409

Colorado Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 4.57 6.94 3.21 3.96 1967-2010 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 6.23 6.98 5.09 5.26 4.94 4.26 1984-2012 Residential Price 8.84 9.77 8.80 8.13 8.25 8.31 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 8.10 9.01 7.56 7.58 7.84 7.58 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 95.7 95.2 94.8 94.6 93.8 92.2 1990-2012 Industrial Price 7.21 8.76 6.57 5.84 6.42 5.79 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 0.5 0.6 0.5 5.2 7.5 6.8 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price 8.72 13.57 9.12 10.79 9.56 11.65 1990-2012

410

Alaska Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 5.63 7.39 2.93 3.17 1967-2010 Exports Price 6.21 7.69 8.59 12.19 12.88 15.71 1989-2012 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1970-2005 Citygate Price 6.75 6.74 8.22 6.67 6.53 6.14 1988-2012 Residential Price 8.68 8.72 10.23 8.89 8.77 8.47 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 7.57 8.66 9.51 8.78 8.09 8.09 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 76.0 74.9 85.3 87.7 88.6 94.9 1990-2012 Industrial Price 4.67 5.49 4.02 4.23 3.84 5.11 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 70.0 78.2 72.5 70.5 60.8 100.0 1997-2012

411

Kansas Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 5.69 6.85 3.16 4.23 1967-2010 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 8.27 8.85 6.12 6.08 5.53 4.74 1984-2012 Residential Price 12.97 13.00 11.10 10.61 9.93 10.13 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 12.04 12.24 10.01 9.65 8.89 8.82 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 64.8 64.9 65.7 66.0 62.6 59.7 1990-2012 Industrial Price 7.17 9.42 4.59 5.49 5.28 3.95 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 5.9 7.8 6.7 7.0 9.5 8.8 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price -- -- -- -- 9.87 9.00 1994-2012

412

Missouri Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 1967-1997 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 7.53 8.03 7.06 6.17 5.85 5.27 1984-2012 Residential Price 13.42 13.36 12.61 11.66 12.02 12.25 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 11.82 12.02 10.81 10.28 9.99 9.54 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 76.9 77.5 76.7 76.5 73.1 69.2 1990-2012 Industrial Price 10.84 11.32 9.55 8.70 8.54 7.93 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 12.8 13.9 13.2 13.1 13.4 12.5 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price 8.44 8.66 7.86 6.34 6.11 5.64 1994-2012

413

Arkansas Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Wellhead Price 6.61 8.72 3.43 3.84 1967-2010 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 8.55 8.88 7.86 6.76 6.27 5.36 1984-2012 Residential Price 13.08 14.09 13.39 11.53 11.46 11.82 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 10.07 11.32 10.72 8.89 8.90 7.99 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 70.4 64.5 59.4 55.6 51.5 40.2 1990-2012 Industrial Price 9.51 10.56 8.44 7.28 7.44 6.38 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 4.2 3.9 3.7 2.8 2.1 1.9 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price 8.39 -- -- -- -- 9.04 1994-2012

414

Iowa Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 7.80 8.28 5.62 5.69 5.27 4.84 1984-2012 Residential Price 11.76 11.91 9.83 9.57 9.54 9.46 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 9.97 10.25 7.88 7.81 7.55 7.13 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 77.7 75.8 72.5 72.0 72.1 72.3 1990-2012 Industrial Price 8.56 9.32 6.23 6.10 5.78 4.70 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 6.5 6.6 6.4 5.8 5.5 5.2 1997-2012 Vehicle Fuel Price 11.68 -- -- -- -- -- 1990-2012 Electric Power Price 7.73 W W W W 3.84 1997-2012

415

Maine Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Imports Price 7.57 9.77 4.48 4.94 4.40 3.45 1999-2012 Exports Price -- -- 5.62 4.53 4.46 4.30 2007-2012 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 10.46 13.47 8.64 8.19 8.14 7.73 1984-2012 Residential Price 16.90 17.47 16.43 14.14 14.20 15.94 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.9 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 14.82 15.87 13.94 11.71 11.69 12.22 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 46.2 45.0 51.0 45.0 45.8 42.1 1990-2012 Industrial Price 13.40 14.89 9.12 11.23 10.89 10.35 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 1997-2012

416

Idaho Natural Gas Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 View History Imports Price 6.31 7.88 3.86 4.19 3.90 2.59 1989-2012 Exports Price -- 7.43 4.49 5.85 4.74 -- 1999-2012 Pipeline and Distribution Use Price 1967-2005 Citygate Price 6.68 7.48 5.63 4.82 4.65 4.07 1984-2012 Residential Price 11.47 11.07 10.54 8.95 8.80 8.26 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1989-2012 Commercial Price 10.67 10.28 9.77 8.21 8.09 7.35 1967-2012 Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices 84.8 86.0 83.7 82.0 80.8 77.0 1990-2012 Industrial Price 9.39 9.18 8.53 6.39 6.36 5.73 1997-2012 Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1997-2012

417

The Impact of City-level Permitting Processes on Residential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development Times: An Empirical Analysis of Solar Systems in California Cities  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

V: The Installed Price of Photovoltaics in the United Statescost of energy for photovoltaics. Energy & EnvironmentalInc. case study. Progress in Photovoltaics 19 (4): 498500

Wiser, Ryan

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Oil price stabilization and global welfare  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Oil price stabilization polices are adopted extensively in developing countries. Some argue that developed economies, especially the US, may gain from these policies through trade. This paper studies this issue in a two-country model with dollar currency pricing. We find that the optimal level of oil price stabilization chosen by developing countries and its implications for global welfare depend critically on whether monetary policy can effectively respond to oil shocks. In an environment without monetary shocks, when optimal monetary policies are considered, there is no role for oil price stabilization in developing countries. However, to make the oil price stabilization policy redundant, optimal monetary policy is not necessary. Some non-optimal endogenous monetary policies satisfying certain conditions can also make the developing countries choose zero oil price stabilization. The results change when there are monetary shocks. Even with optimal monetary policies, the developing countries will choose a positive level of oil price stabilization. However, due to dollar currency pricing, the US actually loses from the stabilization policy. Our results are well supported by the quantitative analysis in a full-fledged dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.

Qing Liu; Kang Shi; Zhouheng Wu; Juanyi Xu

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Participatory Pricing in Sport: An Examination of Name-Your-Own-Price and Pay-What-You-Want Pricing  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

participatory pricing groups and traditional fixed price groups when examining price fairness, perceived value, willingness-to-pay, and final average prices paid. Specifically, price fairness evaluations were significantly higher for the PWYW and fixed price...

Reese, Jason 1985-

2012-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

420

Uncertainty analysis of the SWEPP PAN assay system for glass waste (content codes 440, 441 and 442)  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

INEL is being used as a temporary storage facility for transuranic waste generated by the Nuclear Weapons program at the Rocky Flats Plant. Currently, there is a large effort in progress to prepare to ship this waste to WIPP. In order to meet the TRU Waste Characterization Quality Assurance Program Plan nondestructive assay compliance requirements and quality assurance objectives, it is necessary to determine the total uncertainty of the radioassay results produced by the Stored Waste Examination Pilot Plant (SWEPP) Passive Action Neutron (PAN) radioassay system. This paper discusses a modified statistical sampling and verification approach used to determine the total uncertainty of SWEPP PAN measurements for glass waste (content codes 440, 441, and 442) contained in 208 liter drums. In the modified statistical sampling and verification approach, the total performance of the SWEPP PAN nondestructive assay system for specifically selected waste conditions is simulated using computer models. A set of 100 cases covering the known conditions exhibited in glass waste was compiled using a combined statistical sampling and factorial experimental design approach. Parameter values assigned in each simulation were derived from reviews of approximately 100 real-time radiography video tapes of RFP glass waste drums, results from previous SWEPP PAN measurements on glass waste drums, and shipping data from RFP where the glass waste was generated. The data in the 100 selected cases form the multi-parameter input to the simulation model. The reported plutonium masses from the simulation model are compared with corresponding input masses. From these comparisons, the bias and total uncertainty associated with SWEPP PAN measurements on glass waste drums are estimated. The validity of the simulation approach is verified by comparing simulated output against results from calibration measurements using known plutonium sources and two glass waste calibration drums.

Blackwood, L.G.; Harker, Y.D.; Meachum, T.R.; Yoon, W.Y.

1996-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Retail Motor Gasoline Prices*  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Notes: Gasoline pump prices have backed down from the high prices experienced last summer and fall. The retail price for regular motor gasoline fell 11 cents per gallon from September to December. However, with crude oil prices rebounding somewhat from their December lows combined with lower than normal stock levels, we project that prices at the pump will rise modestly as the 2001 driving season begins this spring. For the summer of 2001, we expect only a little difference from the average price of $1.50 per gallon seen during the previous driving season, as motor gasoline stocks going into the driving season are projected to be slightly less than they were last year. The situation of relatively low inventories for gasoline could set the stage for some regional imbalances in supply that could once again

422

Residential Heating Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This chart highlights residential heating oil prices for the current and This chart highlights residential heating oil prices for the current and past heating season. As you can see, prices have started the heating season, about 40 to 50 cents per gallon higher than last year at this time. The data presented are from EIA's State Heating Oil and Propane Program. We normally collect and publish this data twice a month, but given the low stocks and high prices, we started tracking the prices weekly. These data will also be used to determine the price trigger mechanism for the Northeast Heating Oil Reserve. The data are published at a State and regional level on our web site. The slide is to give you some perspective of what is happening in these markets, since you probably will get a number of calls from local residents about their heating fuels bills

423

prices | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

prices prices Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 12, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses 2009 dollars per gallon. The data is broken down into crude oil prices, residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power and refined petroleum product prices. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Petroleum prices Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Petroleum Product Prices- Reference Case (xls, 129.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035

424

Equilibrium pricing bounds on option prices Marie Chazala  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

probability measure that is equivalent to the historical one, and under which the discounted price processesEquilibrium pricing bounds on option prices Marie Chazala and Ely`es Jouinib a CREST, France price at maturity, we derive an upper bound on the call option price by putting two kind of restrictions

Boyer, Edmond

425

California Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

California California Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Bakersfield BakersfieldGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Fresno FresnoGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Los Angeles LosAngelesGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Modesto ModestoGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Oakland OaklandGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Orange County OrangeCountyGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Riverside RiversideGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com San Bernardino SanBernardinoGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com San Diego SanDiegoGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com

426

Michigan Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Michigan Michigan Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Ann Arbor AnnArborGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Battle Creek BattleCreekGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Detroit DetroitGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Flint FlintGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Grand Rapids GrandRapidsGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Kalamazoo KalamazooGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Lansing LansingGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Sterling Heights SterlingHeightsGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Other Michigan Cities MichiganGasPrices.com (search by city or ZIP code) - GasBuddy.com

427

Iowa Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Iowa Iowa Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Ames AmesGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Cedar Rapids CedarRapidsGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Council Bluffs CouncilBluffsGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Des Moines DesMoinesGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Dubuque DubuqueGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Iowa City IowaCityGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Quad Cities QuadCitiesGasPrices.com Sioux City SiouxCityGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Waterloo WaterlooGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Other Iowa Cities

428

Louisiana Gasoline Price Data  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Louisiana Louisiana Exit Fueleconomy.gov The links below are to pages that are not part of the fueleconomy.gov. We offer these external links for your convenience in accessing additional information that may be useful or interesting to you. Selected Cities Baton Rouge BatonRougeGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Lafayette LafayetteGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Lake Charles LakeCharlesGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Metairie MetairieGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Monroe MonroeGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com New Orleans NewOrleansGasPrices.com Automotive.com Mapquest.com Shreveport ShreveportGasPrices.com Automotive.com MapQuest.com Other Louisiana Cities LouisianaGasPrices.com (search by city or ZIP code) - GasBuddy.com Louisiana Gas Prices (selected cities) - GasBuddy.com

429

,"Colorado Natural Gas Prices"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Name","Description"," Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","Colorado Natural Gas Prices",8,"Monthly","112014","1151989" ,"Release Date:","1302015"...

430

Pricing Inflation Derivatives.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

?? This thesis presents an overview of strategies for pricing inflation derivatives. The paper is structured as follows. Firstly, the basic definitions and concepts such (more)

Tewolde Berhan, Damr

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

431

Natural Gas Industrial Price  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

Power Price Gross Withdrawals Gross Withdrawals From Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Oil Wells Gross Withdrawals From Shale Gas Wells Gross Withdrawals From Coalbed Wells...

432

,"California Natural Gas Prices"  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Name","Description"," Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","California Natural Gas Prices",13,"Annual",2013,"6301967" ,"Release Date:","10312014"...

433

Crude Oil Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2001 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

434

Crude Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2002 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

435

Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2000 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

436

Crude Oil Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1999 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

437

Crude Oil Prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1998 41 Table 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices (Dollars per Barrel) - Continued Year Month PAD District II...

438

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the nominal scenario class in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the nominal scenario class (i.e., for undisturbed conditions) obtained in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures, (ii) drip shield and waste package failure, (iii) engineered barrier system conditions, (iv) radionuclide release results for the engineered barrier system, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone, and (v) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

C.W. Hansen; G.A. Behie; A. Bier; K.M. Brooks; Y. Chen; J.C. Helton; S.P. Hommel; K.P. Lee; B. Lester; P.D. Mattie; S. Mehta; S.P. Miller; C.J. Sallaberry; S.D. Sevougian; P. Vo

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

439

A structural risk-neutral model for pricing and hedging power derivatives  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, producing price spikes. We focus on pricing and hedging electricity derivatives. The hedging instruments for futures prices and semi-explicit formulae for spread options and European options on electricity for- ward contracts. An analysis of the electricity price risk premium is provided showing the contribution of demand

440

CCPExecutiveSummary Collusive Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CCPExecutiveSummary September 2011 Collusive Price Rigidity under Price-Matching Punishments W: www.uea.ac.uk/ccp T: +44 (0)1603 593715 A: UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ Collusive Price Rigidity under Price and price rigidity are linked. This belief is formalised in the theory of the kinked demand curve

Feigon, Brooke

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

Retrospective Evaluation of Appliance Price Trends  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

the higher the product cost and retail price. Table 3.change and appliance price Room air conditioners Small (price data to clarify price

Dale, Larry

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 [1] and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository [2]. This presentation provides an overview of the conceptual and computational structure of the indicated PA (hereafter referred to as the 2008 YM PA) and the roles that uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis play in this structure.

Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.

2010-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

443

Reconciling Real Option Models: An Approach to Incorporate Market and Private Uncertainties  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Several real options analysis techniques designed for practitioners exist in literature, but there is discrepancy in their underlying assumptions, mechanics and applicability. Within this paper, a review of approaches targeted towards practitioners is included, and a novel way of integrating market and private uncertainties is proposed. Market risk is incorporated into the dynamics of the project cash flow by assuming the success of the project is correlated to a traded index. The value of the real option on the project cash flows may be priced by traditional numerical methods or a simulation approach similar to the previously recommended Datar-Mathews method (Datar et al., 2007). A numerical example presents the proposed model within the simulation framework. Keywords: Real options for practitioners, valuation under uncertainty, DM Method, correlated processes 1

Kelsey Barton; Yuri Lawryshyn

444

CANNED FISH .RETAIL PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CANNED FISH .RETAIL PRICES MA.Y 1959 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE, Commissioner CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES MAY 1959 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch of Market a population of 30, 500 or over, and pric s w r obtain d by P rson 1 visit of ag nts to th retail stores in th

445

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE BUREAU, Fred A. Seaton, Secretary Fish and Wildlife Servic e, Arnie J. Suomela, Commissioner CANNED FISH RETAIL with the Bureau of Labor Statistics to obtain a v e rage retail prices for selected canned fish items. The retail

446

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES DECEMBER 1958 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR FISH AND WILDLIFE, Commissioner CANNED FISH RETAIL PRICES DECEMBER 1958 Prepared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch Fisheries has contra cted with the Bureau of Labor Statistics to obtain av rag retail pric s for se lected

447

Utility spot pricing, California  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The objective of the present spot pricing study carried out for SCE and PG&E is to develop the concepts which wculd lead to an experimental design for spot pricing in the two utilities. The report suggests a set of experiments ...

Schweppe, Fred C.

1982-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Food price volatility  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...much lower on the political agenda in the...Despite the inherent risks in agricultural...markets and crop insurance. While these...measures of price risk management (Morgan 2001). Insurance markets are well...not for price risk. Futures and...

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

449

California Natural Gas Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 View History Citygate Price 6.06 4.86 5.15 4.75 5.21 4.36 1989-2014 Residential Price 11.77 11.48 12.15 12.04 12.51 12.07 1989-2014...

450

Connecticut Natural Gas Prices  

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 View History Citygate Price 5.68 5.97 6.63 6.39 6.10 5.84 1989-2014 Residential Price 13.90 16.53 17.79 20.34 20.36 20.67 1989-2014...

451

National Laboratory Dorene Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Brookhaven National Laboratory Dorene Price Office of Intellectual Property and Sponsored Research: price@bnl.gov ACTIVATED ALUMINUM HYDRIDE HYDROGEN STORAGE COMPOSITIONS AND USES THEREOF Brookhaven alternatives to increase the fuel economies of vehicles as well as other applications that require an energy

452

THE WEEK'S PRICE CHANGES  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

THE WEEK'S PRICE CHANGES ... United Fuel Gas Co., Charleston, W. Va., has been authorized by Federal Power Commission to increase its wholesale rates for natural gas. ... Monarch Chemical Co., 161 East 42nd St., New York, announced at trie start of the month that it is advancing prices on its line of baking powders and creams, effective Aug. 31. ...

1953-08-17T23:59:59.000Z

453

THE WEEK'S PRICE CHANGES  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Standard Oil Co. of Indiana advanced prices for fuel oil in the Chicago area three tenths of a cent per gallon, effective Jan. 23, 1950.Fritzsche Brothers, Inc. , New York, issued a new price list Jan. 13, 1950, showing eight declines and six advances ...

1950-01-30T23:59:59.000Z

454

National Laboratory Dorene Price  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Brookhaven National Laboratory Dorene Price Office of Intellectual Property and Sponsored Research: price@bnl.gov ELECTROCHEMICAL ENHANCEMENT OF BIO-ETHANOL AND METABOLITE PRODUCTION Brookhaven National-ethanol fuel, as a beverage, or industries which by means of fermenting microbes commercially make ethanol

455

Price Liquefied Freeport, TX Natural Gas Exports Price to United...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

United Kingdom (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet) Price Liquefied Freeport, TX Natural Gas Exports Price to United Kingdom (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet) Decade Year-0 Year-1...

456

Demand and Price Uncertainty: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

OECD Employment and Labour Market Statistics (database).OECDs Employment and Labour Market Statistics (2011). Only

Scott, K. Rebecca

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

457

Price volatility forecasting using artificial neural networks in emerging electricity markets  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

In the adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting, it may be premature to rely solely on the hourly price forecast. The volatility of electricity price should also be analysed to provide additional insight on price forecasting. This paper proposes a price volatility module to analyse electricity price spikes and study the probability distribution of electricity price. Two methods are used to study the probability distribution of electricity price: the analytical method and the ANN method. Furthermore, ANN method is used to study the impact of line limits, line outages, generator outages, load pattern and bidding strategy on short term price forecasting, in addition to sensitivity analysis to determine the extent to which these factors impact price forecasting. Data used in this study are spot electricity prices from California market in the period which includes the crisis months where extreme volatility was observed.

Ahmad F. Al-Ajlouni; Hatim Y. Yamin; Ali Eyadeh

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

458

Gasoline Prices at Historical Lows  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 Notes: Before looking at El Paso gasoline prices, let’s take a minute to look at the U.S. average price for context. Gasoline prices this year, adjusted for inflation, are the lowest ever. Back in March, before prices began to rise ahead of the traditional high-demand season, the U.S. average retail price fell to $1.00 per gallon. Prices rose an average of 7.5 cents, less than the typical seasonal runup, to peak in early June. Since then, prices have fallen back to $1.013. Given recent declines in crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices, we expect retail prices to continue to ease over at least the next few weeks. Since their sharp runup during the energy crises of the 1970’s, gasoline prices have actually been non-inflationary. Adjusting the historical prices by the Consumer Price Index, we can see that today’s

459

Diesel prices continue to increase  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Diesel prices continue to increase The U.S. average retail price for on-highway diesel fuel rose to 3.98 a gallon. That's up 2.6 cents from a week ago, based on the weekly price...

460

Belinda Price | Department of Energy  

Office of Environmental Management (EM)

Belinda Price About Us Belinda Price - Member Belinda is a senior hydrogeologist with Alliant Corporation. She has more than 25 years experience in environmental investigation and...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Price forecasting for notebook computers.  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a (more)

Rutherford, Derek Paul

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

462

STEO November 2012 - gas prices  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

two-thirds of the pump price. Hurricane Sandy, however, has contributed to higher wholesale gasoline prices on the East Coast, and the recovery schedule for affected...

463

Understanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices Over the Past Decade  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Understanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices Over the Past Decade Understanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices Over the Past Decade Title Understanding Trends in Wind Turbine Prices Over the Past Decade Publication Type Report Refereed Designation Unknown Year of Publication 2011 Authors Bolinger, Mark, and Ryan H. Wiser Pagination 46 Date Published 10/2011 Publisher LBNL City Berkeley Keywords electricity markets and policy group, energy analysis and environmental impacts department Abstract Berkeley Lab has gathered price data on 81 U.S. wind turbine transactions totaling 23,850 MW announced from 1997 through early 2011. Figure ES-1 depicts these reported wind turbine transaction prices (along with the associated trend line), broken out by the size of the transaction (in MW). Figure ES-1 also presents average (global) turbine prices reported by Vestas for the years 2005 through 2010, as well as a range of reported pricing (among various turbine manufacturers) for transactions signed in 2010 and so far in 2011 (with 2011 prices generally lower than 2010 prices). After hitting a low of roughly $750/kW from 2000 to 2002, average wind turbine prices doubled through 2008, rising to an average of roughly $1,500/kW. Wind turbine prices have since declined substantially, with price quotes for transactions executed in 2010 and to date in 2011 ranging from $900-$1,400/kW depending on the manufacturer and turbine model. For example, turbines designed for lower wind speed sites - deploying higher hub heights and larger rotor diameters for a given nameplate capacity - are priced at the higher end of this range. These quotes suggest price declines of as much as 33% or more since late 2008, with an average decline closer to perhaps 20% for orders announced in 2010 (as opposed to in 2011, which has seen further price declines). These two substantial and opposing wind turbine price trends over the past decade - and particularly the doubling in prices in the 2002-2008 period - run counter to the smooth, gradually declining technology cost trajectories that are often assumed by energy analysts modeling the diffusion of new technologies, including wind power. Understanding and explaining this notable discrepancy between theory and historical reality is the primary motivation for this work. Taking a bottom-up approach, this report examines seven primary drivers of wind turbine prices in the United States, with the goal of estimating the degree to which each contributed to the doubling in turbine prices from 2002 through 2008, as well as the subsequent decline in prices through 2010 (our analysis does not extend into 2011 because several of these drivers are best gauged on a full-year basis due to seasonality issues).

464

How Has Dematerialization Contributed to Reducing Oil Price Pressure?: A Qualitative Input?Output Analysis for the Japanese Economy during 1990?2000  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Faculty of Economics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan, Research Center for Material Cycles and Waste Management, National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan, Tsukuba, Japan, and Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota ... An increase in crude oil prices increases production costs in many industries; these higher costs, if transferred to the consumer through an increase in product prices, would have a negative impact on households and discourage consumption. ... The economy is affected by reduced earnings for companies that cannot pass through the cost increases into prices for their final products due to the market competition, or any fraction of the increase in cost that is reflected in an increase in the price of a product affects the Japanese economy via the effects such increases have on household budget allocation and savings. ...

Shigemi Kagawa; Yuko Oshita; Keisuke Nansai; Sangwon Suh

2008-12-10T23:59:59.000Z

465

A theory of directional pricing and its application to electricity policy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study is a first attempt of investigating a theory of directional pricing. Directional pricing is defined as price or rate designs that apply different prices to selling and buying the concerned goods. A typical example would be rate schedules in the feed-in-tariff (FIT) policy for electricity. This study discusses how the pricing is distinctive and shows that a new development of the theory is essential for the analysis of such emerging electricity markets.

Akira Maeda; Makiko Nagaya

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in logarithms has important implications for the stability of estimates of pass through when oil price levels rise significantly. Second, considering spot prices for refined prices improves significantly the fit of the estimated models relative to using crude oil prices. It also results in more economically meaningful results concerning the extent of pass through. Third, oil price pass through occurs quickly, with 90% occurring within three to five weeks. Fourth, using a relatively broad specification allowing for asymmetry in the pass through from upstream to downstream prices, there is little evidence of statistically significant asymmetries. Furthermore, even where asymmetry is found to be statistically significant, it is generally not economically significant. Lastly, these results generally hold across most euro area countries with few exceptions.

Aidan Meyler

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission

468

Crude Oil and Gasoline Price Monitoring  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

What drives crude oil prices? What drives crude oil prices? November 13, 2013 | Washington, DC An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly Crude oil prices react to a variety of geopolitical and economic events November 13, 2013 2 price per barrel (real 2010 dollars, quarterly average) Low spare capacity Iraq invades Kuwait Saudis abandon swing producer role Iran-Iraq War Iranian revolution Arab Oil Embargo Asian financial crisis U.S. spare capacity exhausted Global financial collapse 9-11 attacks OPEC cuts targets 1.7 mmbpd OPEC cuts targets 4.2 mmbpd Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 imported refiner acquisition cost of crude oil

469

Domestic fuel price and the Nigerian macroeconomy  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This study examined empirically a one-to-one nexus between domestic fuel price and various macroeconomic variables in Nigeria for the period spanning 1986 to 2011. The study adopted both a vector auto-regressive (VAR) and a vector error correction (VEC) models for appropriate analysis. For pairs of variables that are integrated of the same order but not co-integrated, the VAR model revealed that a unidirectional causation exist from domestic fuel price to short term interest rate while for the pair of variables that are integrated of the same order and are co-integrated the VEC model revealed the existence of causality from domestic fuel price to inflation rate in the long run and in the short run. The study recommended that serious caution should be taking by the government on domestic fuel price increase especially in an attempt to remove fuel subsidy and deregulate the downstream sector of the oil industry.

Philip Ifeakachukwu Nwosa

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

470

Gas Prices: Frequently Asked Questions  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Prices: Frequently Asked Questions Prices: Frequently Asked Questions What determines the price of gasoline? Energy Information Administration What's going on with gasoline prices? Factors Affecting Gasoline Prices This Week in Petroleum (updated weekly) Gasoline Price Pass-through Oil Market Basics Primer on Gasoline Sources and Markets What's up (and down) with gasoline prices? Illustration showing component costs of gasoline What are the average national and regional gasoline prices? Energy Information Administration Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (updated weekly) This Week in Petroleum (updated weekly) California Energy Commission California Gasoline & Gasoline Prices What is the outlook for gasoline prices? Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook Why are gasoline prices so different from one state (or region) to another?

471

The Effect of Uncertainty on Pollution Abatement Investments: Measuring Hurdle Rates for Swedish Industry  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, oil price uncertainty, abatement investment, sulfur emissions, pulp and paper industry, energy ex post data. The method is based on a structural option value model where the future price using a panel of firms from the Swedish pulp and paper industry, and the energy and heating sector

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

472

Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Linking Oil Prices, Gas Prices, Economy, Transport, and Land Use A Review of Empirical Findings Hongwei Dong, Ph.D. Candidate John D. Hunt, Professor John Gliebe, Assistant Professor #12;Framework Oil-run Short and Long-run #12;Topics covered by this presentation: Oil price and macro-economy Gas price

Bertini, Robert L.

473

CCPExecutiveSummary Price low and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

CCPExecutiveSummary July 2010 Price low and then price high W: www.uea.ac.uk/ccp T: +44 (0)1603 593715 A: UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ Price low and then price high or price high and then price low introductory price for a new product followed by a higher price. For example, if at least some consumers face

Feigon, Brooke

474

Planning for future uncertainties in electric power generation : an analysis of transitional strategies for reduction of carbon and sulfur emissions  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

The object of this paper is to identify strategies for the U.S. electric utility industry for reduction of both acid rain producing and global warming gases. The research used the EPRI Electric Generation Expansion Analysis ...

Tabors, Richard D.

1991-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

475

WTI Crude Oil Prices Are Expected To Remain Relatively High Through At  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Notes: As we just saw, one of the primary factors impacting gasoline price is the crude oil price. This graph shows monthly average spot West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Spot WTI crude oil prices broke $36 per barrel in November briefly as anticipated boosts to world supply from OPEC and other sources did not show up in actual stocks data. Crude oil prices are expected to be about $30 per barrel for the rest of this year, but note the uncertainty bands on this projection. They give an indication of how difficult it is to know what these prices are going to do. Also, EIA does not forecast volatility. This relatively flat forecast could be correct on average, with wide swings around the base line. With the EIA forecast for crude prices staying high this year,

476

Oil Price Volatility  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Speculation and Oil Price Volatility Speculation and Oil Price Volatility Robert J. Weiner Robert J. Weiner Professor of International Business, Public Policy & Professor of International Business, Public Policy & Public Administration, and International Affairs Public Administration, and International Affairs George Washington University; George Washington University; Membre Associ Membre Associ é é , GREEN, Universit , GREEN, Universit é é Laval Laval EIA Annual Conference Washington Washington 7 April 2009 7 April 2009 1 FACTORS DRIVNG OIL PRICE VOLATILITY FACTORS DRIVNG OIL PRICE VOLATILITY ► ► Market fundamentals Market fundamentals . . Fluctuations in supply, Fluctuations in supply, demand, and market power demand, and market power Some fundamentals related to expectations of Some fundamentals related to expectations of

477

El Paso Gasoline Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 Notes: Good morning. I’m glad to be here in El Paso to share some of my agency’s insights on crude oil and gasoline prices. I represent the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy. My division has the responsibility to monitor petroleum supplies and prices in the United States. As part of that work, we operate a number of surveys on a weekly, monthly, and annual basis. One of these is a weekly survey of retail gasoline prices at about 800 stations nationwide. This survey in particular allows us to observe the differences between local gasoline markets in the United States. While we track relatively few stations in the El Paso area, we have compared our price data with that collected by the El Paso City-County Health and Environmental District and

478

Refiner Wholesale Price ...........................  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Prices (cents per gallon) Prices (cents per gallon) Refiner Wholesale Price ........................... 297 299 302 275 289 290 288 262 275 289 280 257 293 282 276 Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes PADD 1 .................................................... 363 366 364 355 361 350 355 331 341 355 347 327 362 349 343 PADD 2 .................................................... 355 366 369 340 350 368 352 318 334 355 346 318 357 347 338 PADD 3 .................................................... 346 353 345 326 339 336 337 307 323 341 329 305 343 330 325 PADD 4 .................................................... 322 374 358 348 323 361 362 326 322 351 348 322 351 344 337 PADD 5 .................................................... 390 413 390 384 382 390 385 355 362 384 379 356 394 378 371 U.S. Average ........................................

479

Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

20.86 20.67 20.47 20.24 20.32 19.57 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

480

Crude Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

19.11 18.73 18.63 17.97 18.75 18.10 See footnotes at end of table. 21. Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Prices Energy Information Administration Petroleum Marketing Annual...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "analysis price uncertainty" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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481

Handling uncertainty in science  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

...techniques to predict uncertainty in...techniques used to predict uncertainty in...economy, or of the outbreak of life-threatening pandemic flu, have parallels...weather forecast model. (b) Example...ocean-atmosphere model. Source: European...

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Implementing price increases in turbulent economies: Pricing approaches for reducing perceptions of price unfairness  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Abstract Consumer frustration over having less money in their pockets and, at the same time facing higher prices for products and services in the marketplace, arises during turbulent economic times (e.g., post-2007). Sellers suffer increased costs and pass along increases by raising prices to consumers. The current article discusses trends in the pricing literature and in practice that sellers utilize in limiting perceptions of price unfairness, particularly when increasing price in turbulent economic times. Specifically, engaging in transparency in pricing by revealing information about price changes to the consumer during poor economic times potentially reduces perceptions of price unfairness. Using industry-common price-setting practices, shrinking product volume, providing automatic rebates promotions, or offering price-matching promotions also likely reduces perceptions of price unfairness.

Jodie L. Ferguson

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Uncertainty and Risk  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This chapter shows how multiple realizations can be used to support the assessment of uncertainty and risk.

Mario E. Rossi; Clayton V. Deutsch

2014-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

485

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

486

Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty  

DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.

Mccomiskey, Allison

487

The Real Effects of Political Uncertainty: Elections, Information Flow, and  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

, inflation, variation of GDP growth, variation of inflation Intl: property rights protection, rule of law.340 international sample diff = 0.408 Result The link between investment and stock prices is even weaker whenThe Real Effects of Political Uncertainty: Elections, Information Flow, and Investment Efficiency

Lin, Xiaodong

488

Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems A. Bargiela Department. There are system management decisions concerning the regulatory measures such as water pricing principles, effluent in water distribution systems con- cern reservoir(s) management with associated pump scheduling

Bargiela, Andrzej

489

E-Print Network 3.0 - assessing spatial uncertainty Sample Search...  

Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

Uncertainty analysis assesses... in evaluating alternatives. Concern about uncertainty in spatial data and analyses is not new, but systematic... A thorough understanding of...

490

Insights into Spring 2008 Gasoline Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Insights into Spring 2008 Gasoline Prices Insights into Spring 2008 Gasoline Prices Insights into Spring 2008 Gasoline Prices EIA released a new analytical report entitled Motor Gasoline Market Spring 2007 and Implications for Spring 2008. It includes a discussion of scheduled refinery outages in 2008 prepared in accordance with Section 804 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007, which requires EIA to review and analyze information on such outages from commercial reporting services and assess to their expected effects on the price and supply of gasoline. Changes in wholesale gasoline prices relative to crude oil are determined by the tightness between gasoline supply (production and net imports) and demand. Expectations for U.S. gasoline supply relative to demand are for a more favorable situation in January through May 2008 than was the case in the comparable 2007 period. Demand growth, which varies seasonally and depends on economic factors, is expected to slow. New gasoline supply is affected by refinery outages, refinery run decisions, and import variations. Planned refinery outages for January through May 2008 are lower than for the same period in 2007. Given lower planned outages and assuming the return of unplanned outages to more typical levels, including the return of BP's Texas City refinery to full operation, gasoline production could increase between 100 and 200 thousand barrels per day over last year's level, depending on the market incentives. In addition, ethanol use, which adds to gasoline supply, is expected to continue to increase. Considering the uncertainty in all the gasoline supply components, there is little likelihood of events combining in 2008 to lead to the kind of tight supply downstream from crude oil markets seen in spring 2007. In summary, refinery outage and import impacts should contribute less to gasoline price increases in 2008 than in 2007. If all of the low-range estimates for supply occurred, total gasoline supply would increase about 200 thousand barrels per day (Figure S1). However, record crude oil prices are nonetheless pushing current and expected gasoline prices to record levels.

491

Gasoline Price Pass-through  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Gasoline Price Pass-through Gasoline Price Pass-through January 2003 by Michael Burdette and John Zyren* The single most visible energy statistic to American consumers is the retail price of gasoline. While the average consumer probably has a general notion that gasoline prices are related to those for crude oil, he or she likely has little idea that gasoline, like most other goods, is priced at many different levels in the marketing chain, and that changes ripple through the system as prices rise and fall. When substantial price changes occur, especially upward, there are often allegations of impropriety, even price gouging, on the part of petroleum refiners and/or marketers. In order to understand the movement of gasoline prices over time, it is necessary to examine the relationship between prices at retail and various wholesale levels.

492

Retail Diesel Fuel Oil Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Along with heating oil prices, the distillate supply squeeze has Along with heating oil prices, the distillate supply squeeze has severely impacted diesel fuel prices, especially in the Northeast. Retail diesel price data are available sooner than residential heating oil data. This graph shows that diesel prices turned the corner sometime after February 7 and are heading down. Retail diesel fuel prices nationally, along with those of most other petroleum prices, increased steadily through most of 1999. Prices jumped dramatically (by over 11 cents per gallon) in the third week of January, and rose 2 or more cents a week through February 7. The increases were much more rapid in the Northeast. From January 17 through February 7, diesel fuel prices in New England rose nearly 68 cents per gallon, or 47 percent. Prices in the Mid-Atlantic region rose about 58

493

Literature Review of Uncertainty of Analysis Methods (PV F-Chart Program), Report to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

TRNSYS simulations. This report begins with a review of the history of the PV F-Chart method, and includes an example PV F-Chart calculation. In summary, from the literature it was found that hourly PV F-Chart analysis versus measured data were shown...

Haberl, J. S.; Cho, S.

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Pricing and rebate policies in the two-echelon supply chain with asymmetric information under price-dependent, stochastic demand  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper analyzes the manufacturers strategy of optimizing the direct rebate to the final customer and the wholesale price to a profit-maximizing retailer with a price-dependent stochastic demand. The manufacturer possesses full information about the cost and the functional relationship among demand, price and rebate, but may or may not know about the nature of the underlying demand uncertainty faced by the retailer. The conditions under which a retailer benefits from passing on such information are identified. The main features of the model are illustrated analytically and numerically, using linear or iso-elastic demand functions, with additive or multiplicative error structures. Several important implications have been derived, especially those dealing with price and rebate pass-throughs and with the cost to the manufacturer of asymmetric information.

F.J. Arcelus; Satyendra Kumar; G. Srinivasan

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

495

Pricing and rebate policies for the newsvendor problem in the presence of a stochastic redemption rate  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

This paper develops the pricing/rebate/ordering policies of a profit-maximizing vendor, faced with a stochastic rebate-redemption rate and a price/rebate-dependent random demand, all within the single-period framework of the newsvendor problem. The profitability of these policies directly relates to the redemption rate, which in turn depends upon the rebate value by itself and relative to the sales price. A random element accounts for the uncertainty in the estimation of such rate. The decision variables are the sales price, the rebate value and the order size. A numerical example and various sensitivity analyses illustrate the main managerial insights of the model. One of the key results is that the introduction of uncertainty in the redemption rate, contrary to what happens when moving from a deterministic to a stochastic demand, leads the rebate policy to dominate its pricediscount counterpart.

F.J. Arcelus; Satyendra Kumar; G. Srinivasan

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Use the Acceptable Crop Price worksheet to determine breakeven prices for your crops. ACCEPTABLE PRICE WORKSHEET  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Use the Acceptable Crop Price worksheet to determine breakeven prices for your crops. ACCEPTABLE PRICE WORKSHEET Prepared by: David Bau - Regional Extension Educator, Agricultural Business Management (August 2012) CROP INCOME EXAMPLE YOUR FARM EXAMPLE YOUR FARM (A) Crop Acres 400 400 176 46 (C) Price

Netoff, Theoden

497

Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.

Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park

2011-07-27T23:59:59.000Z

498

Wild oil prices, but brave stock markets! The case of GCC stock markets  

Science Journals Connector (OSTI)

Using a vector autoregression (VAR) analysis, this paper investigates the effect of the sharp increase in oil prices on stock market returns for five Gulf ... to 24 May, 2005. During this period oil price has bee...

Bashar Abu Zarour

499

Carbon capture retrofits and the cost of regulatory uncertainty  

SciTech Connect (OSTI)

Power generation firms confront impending replacement of an aging coal-fired fleet in a business environment characterized by volatile natural gas prices and uncertain carbon regulation. We develop a stochastic dynamic programming model of firm investment decisions that minimizes the expected present value of future power generation costs under uncertain natural gas and carbon prices. We explore the implications of regulatory uncertainty on generation technology choice and the optimal timing of investment, and assess the implications of these choices for regulators. We find that interaction of regulatory uncertainty with irreversible investment always raises the social cost of carbon abatement. Further, the social cost of regulatory uncertainty is strongly dependent on the relative competitiveness of IGCC plants, for which the cost of later carbon capture retrofits is comparatively small, and on the firm's ability to use investments in natural gas generation as a transitional strategy to manage carbon regulation uncertainty. Without highly competitive IGCC or low gas prices, regulatory uncertainty can increase the expected social cost of reducing emissions by 40 to 60%.

Reinelt, P.S.; Keith, D.W. [SUNY College of Fredonia, Fredonia, NY (United States). Dept. of Economics

2007-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

500

select h.*, p.Price as Price, NestXML(p.PricingConditions,  

E-Print Network [OSTI]

select h.*, p.Price as Price, NestXML(p.PricingConditions, p.PNGImage) as AdditionalData from Hyper Passau, Germany New Supplier Market Place select p.ProductDescription, c.Supplier, c.AdditionalData, c.Price by p.ProductDescription, c.Price expires Friday, March 29, 2002 5:00:00 PM CET Register Products XML

Kemper, Alfons