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1

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

AEO82 to AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8

2

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Priceslong-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series toAEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

3

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceof AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

4

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda SĂĄnchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors,

5

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Release Date: February 2005 Next Release Date: February 2006 Printer-friendly version Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation* Table 1.Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Printer Friendly Version Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 AEO82 to AEO2004 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Total Electricity Sales 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7

6

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation-Table 1  

Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation > Table 1 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to...

7

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices:forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Appendix ATable 1. Forecast Year AEO Predicted Price from 1996-2003

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

8

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Table 1. Forecast Evaluations:  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: Average Absolute Percent Errors from AEO Forecast Evaluations: 1996 to 2000 Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Average Absolute Percent Error Variable 1996 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO93 1997 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO97 1998 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO98 1999 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO99 2000 Evaluation: AEO82 to AEO2000 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 Total Petroleum Consumption 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 Total Coal Consumption 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 Total Electricity Sales 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 Production Crude Oil Production 5.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5

9

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

10

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

longer-term market-based forecasts that can be used to more-AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Priceslong-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

11

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

a portion of the gas price forecast – through 2010 – can beAEO 2006 reference case forecast to conduct a 25-yearAEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

12

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by open circlesAEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Priceslong-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

13

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

revisions to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEOon the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts will likely onceComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

14

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

15

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

the base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsoof AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

16

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by Esmeralda Sanchez by Esmeralda Sanchez Errata -(7/14/04) The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced an annual evaluation of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. The Forecast Evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute forecast errors for each of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2003. The average absolute forecast error, which for the purpose of this report will also be referred to simply as "average error" or "forecast error", is computed as the simple mean, or average, of all the absolute values of the percent errors, expressed as the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and actual historic value, shown for every AEO and for each year in the forecast horizon (for a given variable). The historical data are typically taken from the Annual Energy Review (AER). The last column of Table 1 provides a summary of the most recent average absolute forecast errors. The calculation of the forecast error is shown in more detail in Tables 2 through 18. Because data for coal prices to electric generating plants were not available from the AER, data from the Monthly Energy Review (MER), July 2003 were used.

17

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-02-09T23:59:59.000Z

18

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

19

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

20

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts fromAEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


21

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2004  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2004 2004 * The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has produced annual evaluations of the accuracy of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on the prior year by adding the projections from the most recent AEO and replacing the historical year of data with the most recent. The forecast evaluation examines the accuracy of AEO forecasts dating back to AEO82 by calculating the average absolute percent errors for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2004. (There is no report titled Annual Energy Outlook 1988 due to a change in the naming convention of the AEOs.) The average absolute percent error is the simple mean of the absolute values of the percentage difference between the Reference Case projection and the

22

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

23

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

24

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

25

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXcase long-term natural gas price forecasts from theto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

26

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

forecasts (or any other forecast, for that matter) in makingcase natural gas price forecast, but to also examine a wideAEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

27

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

28

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

range of different plausible price projections, using eitherthat renewables can provide price certainty over even longerof AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

29

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

late January 2008, extend its natural gas futures strip anComparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

30

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Figure 9: Two Alternative Price Forecasts (denoted by openComparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast toNYMEX Futures Prices Date: December 6, 2006 Introduction On

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

31

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

AEO 2005 reference case oil price forecast and NYMEX oi lthan the reference case oil price forecast for that year. Inoil futures case” where oil prices are based on the NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

32

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

this “hybrid” NYMEX-EIA gas price projection still does notonly a portion of the gas price forecast – through 2010 –of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

33

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEOto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

34

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEOto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

35

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futurescase long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEOto contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

36

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for Present and Current AEO Forecast Evaluations Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 AEO82 to AEO2003 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.5 Total Coal Consumption 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 Total Electricity Sales 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 Production Crude Oil Production 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 Natural Gas Production 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 Coal Production 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.5 Net Natural Gas Imports 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.4

37

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Title of Paper Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte OIAF has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Natural gas has generally been the fuel with the least accurate forecasts of consumption, production, and prices. Natural gas was the last fossil fuel to be deregulated following the strong regulation of energy markets in the 1970s and early 1980s. Even after deregulation, the behavior

38

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the impacts were not incorporated in the AEO projections until their enactment or effective dates in accordance with EIA's requirement to remain policy neutral and include only current laws and regulations in the AEO reference case projections.

39

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to the EIA’s natural gas price forecasts in AEO 2004 and AEOcost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generationwith variable price gas-fired generation that are based

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

40

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

by by Esmeralda Sanchez The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an evaluation of the forecasts in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) annually since 1996. Each year, the forecast evaluation expands on that of the prior year by adding the most recent AEO and the most recent historical year of data. However, the underlying reasons for deviations between the projections and realized history tend to be the same from one evaluation to the next. The most significant conclusions are: * Over the last two decades, there have been many significant changes in laws, policies, and regulations that could not have been anticipated and were not assumed in the projections prior to their implementation. Many of these actions have had significant impacts on energy supply, demand, and prices; however, the

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


41

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation by Susan H. Holte In this paper, the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluates the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), (1) by comparing the projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 with actual historical values. A set of major consumption, production, net import, price, economic, and carbon dioxide emissions variables are included in the evaluation, updating similar papers from previous years. These evaluations also present the reasons and rationales for significant differences. The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has been providing an

42

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect

On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

2010-01-04T23:59:59.000Z

43

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

SciTech Connect

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

44

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-12-19T23:59:59.000Z

45

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-12-06T23:59:59.000Z

46

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Evaluation 2005 Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation 2005 * Then Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy supply and demand each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The projections in the AEO are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections are business-as-usual trend projections, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose or advocate future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of emerging regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.

47

Modeling and Analysis Papers - Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Evaluation > Table 1 Evaluation > Table 1 Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Errors for AEO Forecast Evaluation, 1996 to 2002 Average Absolute Percent Error Variable AEO82 to AEO97 AEO82 to AEO98 AEO82 to AEO99 AEO82 to AEO2000 AEO82 to AEO2001 AEO82 to AEO2002 Consumption Total Energy Consumption 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 Total Petroleum Consumption 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 Total Natural Gas Consumption 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 Total Coal Consumption 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 Total Electricity Sales 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.5 Production Crude Oil Production 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Natural Gas Production 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 Coal Production 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 Imports and Exports Net Petroleum Imports 10.1 9.5 8.8 8.4 7.9 7.4 Net Natural Gas Imports 17.4 16.7 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 Net Coal Exports

48

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

SciTech Connect

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

49

Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2004-12-13T23:59:59.000Z

50

From: Mark Bolinger and Ryan Wiser, Berkeley Lab (LBNL) Subject: Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices Date: January 4, 2010 1. Introduction, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better

51

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Natural Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Natural Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .versus AEO and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices . . . . . .

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

52

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .versus AEO and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices . . . . . .

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

53

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

SciTech Connect

On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2009-01-28T23:59:59.000Z

54

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2008-01-07T23:59:59.000Z

55

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

approach to evaluating price risk would be to use suchthe base-case natural gas price forecast, but to alsorange of different plausible price projections, using either

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

56

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1.1 History of Natural Gas8 4.1 U.S. Wellhead and AEO Natural Gas8 4.2 U.S. Wellhead and Henry Hub Natural Gas

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

57

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

this “hybrid” NYMEX-EIA gas price projection still does notcomparison with fixed- price renewable generation (becauseonly a portion of the gas price forecast – through 2010 –

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

58

Evaluating Point Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Typically, point forecasting methods are compared and assessed by means of an error measure or scoring function, such as the absolute error or the squared error. The individual scores are then averaged over forecast cases, to result in a summary measure of the predictive performance, such as the mean absolute error or the (root) mean squared error. I demonstrate that this common practice can lead to grossly misguided inferences, unless the scoring function and the forecasting task are carefully matched. Effective point forecasting requires that the scoring function be specified ex ante, or that the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. If the scoring function is specified ex ante, the forecaster can issue the optimal point forecast, namely, the Bayes rule. If the forecaster receives a directive in the form of a functional, it is critical that the scoring function be consistent for it, in the sense that the expect...

Gneiting, Tilmann

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

59

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables 2-18  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1999 Publication 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Average Absolute Error (Quadrillion Btu) AEO82 79.1 79.6 79.9 80.8 82.0 83.3 1.8 AEO83 78.0 79.5 81.0 82.4 83.8 84.6 89.5 1.2 AEO84 78.5 79.4 81.2 83.1 85.0 86.4 93.5 1.5 AEO85 77.6 78.5 79.8 81.2 82.6 83.3 84.2 85.2 85.9 86.7 87.7 1.3 AEO86 77.0 78.8 79.8 80.6 81.5 82.9 84.0 84.8 85.7 86.5 87.9 88.4 87.8 88.7 3.6 AEO87 78.9 80.0 81.9 82.8 83.9 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.4 1.5 AEO89 82.2 83.7 84.5 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.2 89.2 90.8 91.4 90.9 91.7 1.8

60

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Table 2. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 5. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 6. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 7. Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 8. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 9. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 12. Net Coal Exports, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 13. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 14. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts Table 15. Coal Prices to Electric Utilities, Actual vs. Forecasts

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
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they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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61

A sensitivity analysis of the treatment of wind energy in the AEO99 version of NEMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

presents forecasts of energy supply, demand and pricesa reference case forecast with fossil fuel prices close toforecast for wind technologies. The AEO’s annual report of energy supply, demand, and prices

Osborn, Julie G.; Wood, Frances; Richey, Cooper; Sanders, Sandy; Short, Walter; Koomey, Jonathan

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

62

Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In a recent article Gneiting, Balabdaoui and Raftery (JRSSB, 2007) propose the criterion of sharpness for the evaluation of predictive distributions or density forecasts. They motivate their proposal by an example in which standard evaluation procedures based on probability integral transforms cannot distinguish between the ideal forecast and several competing forecasts. In this paper we show that their example has some unrealistic features from the perspective of the time-series forecasting literature, hence it is an insecure foundation for their argument that existing calibration procedures are inadequate in practice. We present an alternative, more realistic example in which relevant statistical methods, including information-based methods, provide the required discrimination between competing forecasts. We conclude that there is no need for a subsidiary criterion of sharpness.

James Mitchell; Kenneth F. Wallis

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

63

AEO2008 Overview - Early Release  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

08 08 Overview Energy Trends to 2030 In preparing projections for the Annual Energy Out- look 2008 (AEO2008), the Energy Information Ad- ministration (EIA) evaluated a wide range of trends and issues that could have major implications for U.S. energy markets between today and 2030. 1 This over- view focuses on one case, the reference case, which is presented and compared with the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007) reference case (see Table 1). Readers are encouraged to review the full range of alternative cases included in other sections of AEO2008. As in previous editions of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), the reference case assumes that current poli- cies affecting the energy sector remain unchanged throughout the projection period. Some possible pol- icy changes-notably, the adoption of policies to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions-could change the reference case projections

64

AEO2010 Early Release Overview  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

10 10 Early Release Overview December 2009 Energy Trends to 2035 In preparing the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO- 2010), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) evaluated a wide range of trends and issues that could have major implications for U.S. energy markets. This overview focuses primarily on one case, the AEO2010 reference case, which is presented and com- pared with the updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (updated AEO2009) reference case released in April 2009 1 (see Table 1). Because of the uncertainties in- herent in any energy market projection, particularly in periods of high price volatility, rapid market trans- formation, or active changes in legislation, the refer- ence case results should not be viewed in isolation. Readers are encouraged to review the alternative cases when the complete AEO2010 publication is re- leased in order to gain perspective on how variations

65

forecast | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Browse Upload data GDR Community Login | Sign Up Search Facebook icon Twitter icon forecast Dataset Summary Description The EIA's annual energy outlook (AEO) contains yearly...

66

Evaluating the Skill of Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A generalized skill score is presented for evaluating forecasts in any number of categories. Each forecast in a sample is given a mark; the skill score for the sample is just the average mark. Each mark has an expected value of zero for an ...

Neil D. Gordon

1982-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

67

Energy Technologies on the Horizon (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

A key issue in mid-term forecasting is the representation of changing and developing technologies. How existing technologies will evolve, and what new technologies might emerge, cannot be known with certainty. The issue is of particular importance in AEO2006, the first AEO with projections out to 2030.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

68

Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and non-normality of errors. ...

Thomas M. Hamill

1999-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

69

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Analysis Papers > Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Download Adobe Acrobat Reader Printer friendly version on our site are provided in Adobe Acrobat Spreadsheets are provided in Excel Actual vs. Forecasts Formats Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF Table 12. World Oil Prices Excel, PDF Table 13. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

70

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Modeling and Analysis Papers> Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation>Tables Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) MS Excel Viewer PDF (Acrobat Reader required Download Acrobat Reader ) Adobe Acrobat Reader Logo Table 2. Total Energy Consumption Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports Excel, PDF

71

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

72

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 24  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Table 12. Total coal consumption, projected vs. actual Projected (million short tons) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 920 928 933 938 943 948 953 958 962 967 978 990 987 992 1006 1035 1061 1079 AEO 1995 935 940 941 947 948 951 954 958 963 971 984 992 996 1002 1013 1025 1039 AEO 1996 937 942 954 962 983 990 1004 1017 1027 1033 1046 1067 1070 1071 1074 1082 AEO 1997 948 970 987 1003 1017 1020 1025 1034 1041 1054 1075 1086 1092 1092 1099

73

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 25  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Table 13. Coal production, projected vs. actual Projected (million short tons) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 999 1021 1041 1051 1056 1066 1073 1081 1087 1098 1107 1122 1121 1128 1143 1173 1201 1223 AEO 1995 1006 1010 1011 1016 1017 1021 1027 1033 1040 1051 1066 1076 1083 1090 1108 1122 1137 AEO 1996 1037 1044 1041 1045 1061 1070 1086 1100 1112 1121 1135 1156 1161 1167 1173 1184 AEO 1997 1028 1052 1072 1088 1105 1110 1115 1123 1133 1146 1171 1182 1190 1193 1201

74

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 34  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Table 21. Total energy related carbon dioxide emissions, projected vs. actual Projected (million metric tons) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 5060 5130 5185 5240 5287 5335 5379 5438 5482 5529 5599 5658 5694 5738 5797 5874 5925 5984 AEO 1995 5137 5174 5188 5262 5309 5361 5394 5441 5489 5551 5621 5680 5727 5775 5841 5889 5944 AEO 1996 5182 5224 5295 5355 5417 5464 5525 5589 5660 5735 5812 5879 5925 5981 6030 6087 AEO 1997 5295 5381 5491 5586 5658 5715 5781 5863 5934 6009 6106 6184 6236 6268 6316

75

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 28  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8 8 Table 15. Total electricity sales, projected vs. actual Projected (billion kilowatt-hours) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 2843 2891 2928 2962 3004 3039 3071 3112 3148 3185 3228 3263 3298 3332 3371 3406 3433 3469 AEO 1995 2951 2967 2983 3026 3058 3085 3108 3134 3166 3204 3248 3285 3321 3357 3396 3433 3475 AEO 1996 2973 2998 3039 3074 3106 3137 3173 3215 3262 3317 3363 3409 3454 3505 3553 3604 AEO 1997 3075 3115 3168 3229 3290 3328 3379 3437 3497 3545 3596 3649 3697 3736 3784

76

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 14  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Table 4. Total petroleum consumption, projected vs. actual Projected (million barrels) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 6450 6566 6643 6723 6811 6880 6957 7059 7125 7205 7296 7377 7446 7523 7596 7665 7712 7775 AEO 1995 6398 6544 6555 6676 6745 6822 6888 6964 7048 7147 7245 7337 7406 7472 7537 7581 7621 AEO 1996 6490 6526 6607 6709 6782 6855 6942 7008 7085 7176 7260 7329 7384 7450 7501 7545 AEO 1997 6636 6694 6826 6953 7074 7183 7267 7369 7461 7548 7643 7731 7793 7833 7884

77

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 15  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Table 5. Domestic crude oil production, projected vs. actual Projected (million barrels) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 2508 2373 2256 2161 2088 2022 1953 1891 1851 1825 1799 1781 1767 1759 1778 1789 1807 1862 AEO 1995 2402 2307 2205 2095 2037 1967 1953 1924 1916 1905 1894 1883 1887 1887 1920 1945 1967 AEO 1996 2387 2310 2248 2172 2113 2062 2011 1978 1953 1938 1916 1920 1927 1949 1971 1986 AEO 1997 2362 2307 2245 2197 2143 2091 2055 2033 2015 2004 1997 1989 1982 1975 1967

78

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - Tables  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation Actual vs. Forecasts Available formats Excel (.xls) for printable spreadsheet data (Microsoft Excel required) PDF (Acrobat Reader required) Table 2. Total Energy Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 4. Total Natural Gas Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 5. Total Coal Consumption HTML, Excel, PDF Table 6. Total Electricity Sales HTML, Excel, PDF Table 7. Crude Oil Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 8. Natural Gas Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 9. Coal Production HTML, Excel, PDF Table 10. Net Petroleum Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 11. Net Natural Gas Imports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 12. Net Coal Exports HTML, Excel, PDF Table 13. World Oil Prices HTML, Excel, PDF

79

AEO Assumptions  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

for the for the Annual Energy Outlook 1997 December 1996 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 Energy Information Administration/Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1997 Contents Page Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Macroeconomic Activity Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 International Energy Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Household Expenditures Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Residential Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Commercial Demand Module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

80

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1062—1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): “OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchgässner, G. , and U. K.2005): “Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under

Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


81

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 17  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Table 7a. Natural gas wellhead prices, projected vs. actual Projected price in constant dollars (constant dollars per thousand cubic feet in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO Dollar Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 1992 1.94 2.03 2.11 2.19 2.29 2.35 2.39 2.42 2.47 2.55 2.65 2.75 2.89 3.01 3.17 3.30 3.35 3.47

82

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 26  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Table 14a. Average electricity prices, projected vs. actual Projected price in constant dollars (constant dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO Dollar Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 1992 6.80 6.80 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.10 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.30 7.30 7.40 7.50 7.60

83

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 22  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2 2 Table 11a. Coal prices to electric generating plants, projected vs. actual Projected price in constant dollars (constant dollars per million Btu in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO Dollar Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 1992 1.47 1.48 1.53 1.57 1.58 1.57 1.61 1.63 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.72 1.70 1.76 1.79 1.81 1.88 1.92

84

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work examines the performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEP’s coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near–real time. ...

Kyong-Hwan Seo; Wanqiu Wang; Jon Gottschalck; Qin Zhang; Jae-Kyung E. Schemm; Wayne R. Higgins; Arun Kumar

2009-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

85

Further Evaluation of the National Meterological Center's Medium-Range Forecast Model Precpitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's medium-range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period, 1 March 1987 to 31 March 1989. As shown by Roads and Maisel, the MRF model wet bias was substantially alleviated ...

John O. Roads; T. Norman Maisal; Jordan Alpert

1991-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

86

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 12  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

12 12 Table 3a. Imported refiner acquisition cost of crude oil, projected vs. actual Projected price in constant dollars (constant dollars per barrel in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO Dollar Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 1992 16.69 16.43 16.99 17.66 18.28 19.06 19.89 20.72 21.65 22.61 23.51 24.29 24.90 25.60 26.30 27.00 27.64 28.16 AEO 1995 1993 14.90 16.41 16.90 17.45 18.00 18.53 19.13 19.65 20.16 20.63 21.08 21.50 21.98 22.44 22.94 23.50 24.12

87

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9) 9) Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2009) Each year since 1996, EIA's Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the projections included in previous editions of the AEO. Each year, the comparison adds the projections from the most recent AEO and updates the historical data to the most recently available. The comparison summarizes the relationship of the AEO reference case projections since 1982 to realized outcomes by calculating the average absolute percent differences for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2009. Annual Energy Outlook Restrospective Review, 2009 Report pdf images Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Difference between AEO Reference Case Projections

88

World Oil Prices in AEO2007 (released in AEO2007)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Over the long term, the AEO2007 projection for world oil pricesdefined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refinersis similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

Information Center

2007-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

89

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions experimental product from the United States National Weather Service (NWS) providing gridded forecasted

Perez, Richard R.

90

Confidence Builders: Evaluating Seasonal Climate Forecasts from User Perspectives  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Water managers, cattle ranchers, and wildland fire managers face several barriers to effectively using climate forecasts. Repeatedly, these decision makers state that they lack any quantitative basis for evaluating forecast credibility. That is ...

Holly C. Hartmann; Thomas C. Pagano; S. Sorooshian; R. Bales

2002-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

91

Comparative Forecast Evaluation: Graphical Gaussian Models and Sufficiency Relations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper deals with the comparative evaluation of categorical forecasts supposing that forecasts and observations are continuous variables and have a jointly normal distribution. An information content approach based on the well-established ...

Ulrich Callies

2000-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

92

Comparative Evaluation of Weather Forecasting Systems: Sufficiency, Quality, and Accuracy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The concept of sufficiency, originally introduced in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, has recently been shown to provide a coherent basis for comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. Specifically, forecasting system ...

Martin Ehrendorfer; Allan H. Murphy

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

93

Evaluation of errors in national energy forecasts.  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

??Energy forecasts are widely used by the U.S. government, politicians, think tanks, and utility companies. While short-term forecasts were reasonably accurate, medium and long-range forecasts… (more)

Sakva, Denys

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

94

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The problem of assessing the quality of an operational forecasting system that produces probabilistic forecasts is addressed using information theory. A measure of the quality of the forecasting scheme, based on the amount of a data compression ...

Mark S. Roulston; Leonard A. Smith

2002-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

95

AEO | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AEO AEO Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 95, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power projections United States Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - United States- Reference Case (xls, 260.9 KiB) Quality Metrics

96

Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Post-Construction Evaluation of Forecast Accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi1 David Levinson 2 February the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. The fore- cast traffic data for this study is drawn from

Levinson, David M.

97

Evaluating the Cloud Cover Forecast of NCEP Global Forecast System with Satellite Observation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To assess the quality of daily cloud cover forecast generated by the operational global numeric model, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), we compose a large sample with outputs from GFS model and satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) in the period of July 2004 to June 2008, to conduct a quantitative and systematic assessment of the performance of a cloud model that covers a relatively long range of time, basic cloud types, and in a global view. The evaluation has revealed the goodness of the model forecast, which further illustrates our completeness on understanding cloud generation mechanism. To quantity the result, we found a remarkably high correlation between the model forecasts and the satellite observations over the entire globe, with mean forecast error less than 15% in most areas. Considering a forecast within 30% difference to the observation to be a "good" one, we find that the probability for the GFS model to make good forecasts varies between...

Ye, Quanzhi

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

98

A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE TREATMENT OF WIND ENERGY IN THE AEO99 VERSION OF NEMS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

LBNL-44070 TP-28529 A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE TREATMENT OF WIND ENERGY IN THE AEO99 VERSION and market penetration on the U.S. Department of Energy's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) forecast for wind supply mix remains fairly steady, and renewable energy technologies such as wind do not achieve

99

Forecasting Solar Radiation -- Preliminary Evaluation of an Approach Based upon the National Forecast Database  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Our objective is to develop, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions from the National Digital Forecast Database as an input. This report describes the model and presents a limited evaluation of its performance against ground-measured and satellite-derived irradiances in Albany, New York.

Perez, R.; Moore, K.; Wilcox, S.; Renne, D.; Zelenka, A.

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

100

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 20  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

20 20 Table 9. Natural gas production, projected vs. actual Projected (trillion cubic feet) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 17.71 17.68 17.84 18.12 18.25 18.43 18.58 18.93 19.28 19.51 19.80 19.92 20.13 20.18 20.38 20.35 20.16 20.19 AEO 1995 18.28 17.98 17.92 18.21 18.63 18.92 19.08 19.20 19.36 19.52 19.75 19.94 20.17 20.28 20.60 20.59 20.88 AEO 1996 18.90 19.15 19.52 19.59 19.59 19.65 19.73 19.97 20.36 20.82 21.25 21.37 21.68 22.11 22.47 22.83 AEO 1997 19.10 19.70 20.17 20.32 20.54 20.77 21.26 21.90 22.31 22.66 22.93 23.38 23.68 23.99 24.25

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


101

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 21  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 Table 10. Natural gas net imports, projected vs. actual Projected (trillion cubic feet) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 2.02 2.40 2.66 2.74 2.81 2.85 2.89 2.93 2.95 2.97 3.00 3.16 3.31 3.50 3.57 3.63 3.74 3.85 AEO 1995 2.46 2.54 2.80 2.87 2.87 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.92 2.95 2.97 3.00 3.03 3.19 3.35 3.51 3.60 AEO 1996 2.56 2.75 2.85 2.88 2.93 2.98 3.02 3.06 3.07 3.09 3.12 3.17 3.23 3.29 3.37 3.46 AEO 1997 2.82 2.96 3.16 3.43 3.46 3.50 3.53 3.58 3.64 3.69 3.74 3.78 3.83 3.87 3.92

102

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 10  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

10 10 Table 2. Real gross domestic product, projected vs. actual Projected Real GDP growth trend (cumulative average percent growth in projected real GDP from first year shown for each AEO) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% AEO 1995 3.7% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% AEO 1996 2.6% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%

103

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 32  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2 2 Table 19. Total delivered industrial energy consumption, projected vs. actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.0 AEO 1995 26.2 26.3 26.5 27.0 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.6 AEO 1996 26.5 26.6 27.3 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 AEO 1997 26.2 26.5 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2

104

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006) Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006) Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006) Each year since 1996, EIA's Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the projections included in previous editions of the AEO. Each year, the comparison adds the projections from the most recent AEO and updates the historical data to the most recently available. The comparison summarizes the relationship of the AEO reference case projections since 1982 to realized outcomes by calculating the average absolute percent differences for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2006. Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review, 2006 Report

105

EIA - AEO2010 - Comparison With Other Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Comparison With Other Projections Comparison With Other Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 Comparison With Other Projections Only IHS Global Insights, Inc. (IHSGI) produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2010. Other organizations, however, address one or more aspects of the U.S. energy market. The most recent projection from IHSGI, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2010 projections. Economic growth Projections of the average annual growth rate of real GDP in the United States from 2008 to 2018 range from 2.1 percent to 2.8 percent (Table 9). In the AEO2010 Reference case, real GDP grows by an average of 2.2 percent per year over the period, lower than projected by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Social Security Administration (SSA), and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—although none of those projections has been updated since August 2009. The AEO2010 projection is similar to the IHSGI projection and slightly higher than projections by the Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland (INFORUM). In March 2009, the consensus Blue Chip projection was for 2.2-percent average annual growth from 2008 to 2018.

106

Evaluation of LFM-2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results of a near real time experiment designed to assess the state of the art of quantitative precipitation forecasting skill of the operational NMC LFM-2 are described. All available LFM-2 quantitative precipitation forecasts were verified ...

Lance F. Bosart

1980-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

107

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 13  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 Table 3b. Imported refiner acquisition cost of crude oil, projected vs. actual Projected price in nominal dollars (nominal dollars per barrel) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 17.06 17.21 18.24 19.43 20.64 22.12 23.76 25.52 27.51 29.67 31.86 34.00 36.05 38.36 40.78 43.29 45.88 48.37 AEO 1995 15.24 17.27 18.23 19.26 20.39 21.59 22.97 24.33 25.79 27.27 28.82 30.38 32.14 33.89 35.85 37.97 40.28

108

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 27  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 Table 14b. Average electricity prices, projected vs. actual Projected price in nominal dollars (nominal dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 6.95 7.12 7.41 7.59 7.79 8.01 8.36 8.62 9.02 9.32 9.76 10.08 10.42 10.94 11.32 11.87 12.45 13.05 AEO 1995 6.95 7.16 7.23 7.40 7.59 7.81 8.04 8.42 8.70 9.12 9.43 9.75 10.24 10.57 11.10 11.47 12.02

109

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 19  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

19 19 Table 8. Total natural gas consumption, projected vs. actual Projected (trillion cubic feet) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 19.87 20.21 20.64 20.99 21.20 21.42 21.60 21.99 22.37 22.63 22.95 23.22 23.58 23.82 24.09 24.13 24.02 24.14 AEO 1995 20.82 20.66 20.85 21.21 21.65 21.95 22.12 22.25 22.43 22.62 22.87 23.08 23.36 23.61 24.08 24.23 24.59 AEO 1996 21.32 21.64 22.11 22.21 22.26 22.34 22.46 22.74 23.14 23.63 24.08 24.25 24.63 25.11 25.56 26.00

110

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 30  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 Table 17. Total delivered residential energy consumption, projected vs. actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 AEO 1995 10.96 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 AEO 1996 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7

111

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 33  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 Table 20. Total delivered transportation energy consumption, projected vs. actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 23.6 24.1 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.5 AEO 1995 23.3 24.0 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 AEO 1996 23.9 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.3 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.9

112

U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections 31  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 Table 18. Total delivered commercial energy consumption, projected vs. actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 AEO 1994 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 AEO 1995 6.94 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 AEO 1996 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0

113

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA

Perez, Richard R.

114

EIA-Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8) 8) Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2008) Each year since 1996, EIA's Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the projections included in previous editions of the AEO. Each year, the comparison adds the projections from the most recent AEO and updates the historical data to the most recently available. The comparison summarizes the relationship of the AEO reference case projections since 1982 to realized outcomes by calculating the average absolute percent differences for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2008. Annual Energy Outlook Restrospective Review, 2008 Report Revisions to Gross Domestic Product and Implications for the Comparisons

115

Evaluation of the Added Value of Regional Ensemble Forecasts on Global Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The regional single-model-based Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International–Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated and compared with the global ECMWF-EPS to investigate the ...

Yong Wang; Simona Tascu; Florian Weidle; Karin Schmeisser

2012-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

116

Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

117

Application of DSM evaluation studies to utility forecasting and planning  

SciTech Connect

Utilities and their customers have made substantial investments in utility demand-side management (DSM) programs. These DSM programs also represent a substantial electricity resource. DSM program performance has been studied more systematically in recent years than over any previous period. DSM program evaluations are traditionally targeted to meet the program manager`s need for information on program costs and performance and, more recently, to verify savings to regulators for incentive awards and lost revenue recovery. Yet evaluations may also be used to produce results relevant to utility forecasting and planning. Applying evaluation results is especially important for utilities with substantial current and future commitments to acquiring demand-side resources. This report discusses the application of evaluation results to utility forecasting and planning. The report has three objectives. First, we identify what demand forecasters, DSM forecasters, and resource planners want to learn from evaluations. Second, we identify and describe the major obstacles and problems associated with applying evaluation results and illustrate many of these issues through a specific evaluation application exercise. Finally, we suggest approaches for addressing these major problems. The report summarizes results from interviews with utilities, regulators, and consultants to determine how the industry currently applies evaluation results in forecasting and planning. The report also includes results from case studies of Sacramento Municipal Utility District and Southern California Edison Company, utilities with large DSM programs and active evaluation efforts. Finally, we draw on a specific application exercise in which we used a set of impact evaluations to revise a utility DSM forecast.

Baxter, L.W.

1995-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

118

Evaluation of Prototypical Climate Forecasts: The Sufficiency Relation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The sufficiency relation, originally developed in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, provides a sound basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. The importance of this relation resides in the fact that if ...

Martin Ehrendorfer; Allan H. Murphy

1992-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

119

World Oil Prices in AEO2006 (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

World oil prices in the AEO2006 reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oil prices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

120

Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi , David Levinson  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy Pavithra Parthasarathi Ă?, David Levinson: Transportation demand forecasting Project evaluation Forecast accuracy Model evaluation a b s t r a c t This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects

Levinson, David M.

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


121

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 Table 18. Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Actual vs. Forecasts (million metric tons) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 AEO 1983 AEO 1984 AEO 1985 AEO 1986 AEO 1987 AEO 1989* AEO 1990 AEO 1991 AEO 1992 AEO 1993 5009 5053 5130 5207 5269 5335 5401 5449 5504 5562 5621 5672 5724 5771 AEO 1994 5060 5130 5185 5240 5287 5335 5379 5438 5482 5529 5599 5658 5694 AEO 1995 5137 5174 5188 5262 5309 5361 5394 5441 5489 5551 5621 5680 AEO 1996 5182 5224 5295 5355 5417 5464 5525 5589 5660 5735 5812 AEO 1997 5295 5381 5491 5586 5658 5715 5781 5863 5934 6009 AEO 1998 5474 5621 5711 5784 5893 5957 6026 6098 6192 AEO 1999 5522 5689 5810 5913 5976 6036 6084 6152 AEO 2000 5573 5692 5777 5865 5971 6078 6172 AEO 2001 5630 5781 5909 6023 6114 6197 AEO 2002 5723 5808 5981 6095 6210 AEO 2003 5633 5749 5856 5954 AEO 2004 5743 5826

122

AEO2014 Early Release Overview  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Overview 3 AEO2014 Early Release Overview decade for the first time ...

123

AEO2013 Early Release Overview  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 Early Release Overview 3 Early Release Overview AEO2013 Early Release Overview Executive summary Projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) Reference case focus on the factors that shape U.S. energy markets through 2040, under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain generally unchanged throughout the projection period. This early release focuses on the AEO2013 Reference case, which provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy market trends and serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules, or regulations or potential technology breakthroughs. Readers are encouraged to review the full range of cases that will be presented when the complete AEO2013 is released in early 2013, exploring key uncertainties in the Reference case. Major highlights in the AEO2013 Reference case include:

124

Evaluation of Wave Forecasts Consistent with Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wind Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An algorithm to generate wave fields consistent with forecasts from the official U.S. tropical cyclone forecast centers has been made available in near–real time to forecasters since summer 2007. The algorithm removes the tropical cyclone from ...

Charles R. Sampson; Paul A. Wittmann; Efren A. Serra; Hendrik L. Tolman; Jessica Schauer; Timothy Marchok

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

125

Shootout-89, A Comparative Evaluation of Knowledge-based Systems That Forecast Severe Weather  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the summer of 1989, the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored an evaluation of artificial-intelligence-based systems that forecast severe convective storms. The evaluation experiment, ...

W. R. Moninger; C. Lusk; W. F. Roberts; J. Bullas; Bde Lorenzis; J. C. McLeod; E. Ellison; J. Flueck; P. D. Lampru; K. C. Young; J. Weaver; R. S. Philips; R. Shaw; T. R. Stewart; S. M. Zubrick

1991-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

126

AEO2012 Early Release Overview  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

AEO2012 Early Release Overview Total U.S. consumption of liquid fuels, including both fossil fuels and biofuels, grows from 37.2 quadrillion Btu (19.2 million barrels per day)...

127

Annual Energy Outlook 2001-Appendix G: Major Assumptions for the Forecasts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecasts Forecasts Summary of the AEO2001 Cases/ Scenarios - Appendix Table G1 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Model Results (Formats - PDF, ZIP) - Appendix Tables - Reference Case - 1998 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Download Report - Entire AEO2001 (PDF) - AEO2001 by Chapters (PDF) bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Acronyms bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Contacts Related Links bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Assumptions to the AEO2001 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Supplemental Data to the AEO2001 (Only available on the Web) - Regional and more detailed AEO 2001 Reference Case Results - 1998, 2000 to 2020 bullet1.gif (843 bytes) NEMS Conference bullet1.gif (843 bytes) Forecast Homepage bullet1.gif (843 bytes) EIA Homepage Appendix G Major Assumptions for the Forecasts Component Modules Major Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 2001

128

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025-Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2004 with Projections to 2025 Forecast Comparisons Index (click to jump links) Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal The AEO2004 forecast period extends through 2025. One other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a similar time horizon. Several others provide forecasts that address one or more aspects of energy markets over different time horizons. Recent projections from GII and others are compared here with the AEO2004 projections. Economic Growth Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2002-2008 2002-2013 2002-2025 AEO2003 3.2 3.3 3.1 AEO2004 Reference 3.3 3.2 3.0

129

EVALUATION OF PV GENERATION CAPICITY CREDIT FORECAST ON DAY-AHEAD UTILITY MARKETS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

EVALUATION OF PV GENERATION CAPICITY CREDIT FORECAST ON DAY-AHEAD UTILITY MARKETS Richard Perez of the NDFD-based solar radiation forecasts for several climatically distinct locations, the evaluation is now continued by testing the forecasts' end-use operational accuracy, focusing on their ability to accurately

Perez, Richard R.

130

Evaluating a Hybrid Prognostic–Diagnostic Model That Improves Wind Forecast Resolution in Complex Coastal Topography  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The results from a hybrid approach that combines the forecasts of a mesoscale model with a diagnostic wind model to produce high-resolution wind forecasts in complex coastal orography are evaluated. The simple diagnostic wind model [Winds on ...

Francis L. Ludwig; Douglas K. Miller; Shawn G. Gallaher

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

131

Evaluation of the IRI'S “Net Assessment” Seasonal Climate Forecasts: 1997–2001  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) net assessment seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts are evaluated for the 4-yr period from October–December 1997 to October–December 2001. These probabilistic forecasts ...

L. Goddard; A. G. Barnston; S. J. Mason

2003-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

132

Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Determined from Eta and AVN Forecasted Amounts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This note examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecasted amounts from the NCEP Eta (now known as the North American Mesoscale model) and Aviation (AVN; now known as the Global Forecast System) models run over a 2-...

William A. Gallus Jr.; Michael E. Baldwin; Kimberly L. Elmore

2007-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

133

Evaluation of Probabilistic Medium-Range Temperature Forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Ensemble temperature forecasts from the North American Ensemble Forecast System were assessed for quality against observations for 10 cities in western North America, for a 7-month period beginning in February 2007. Medium-range probabilistic ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

134

AEO2014 Early Release Overview  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Overview Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Overview AEO2014 Early Release Overview Executive summary Projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014) Reference case focus on the factors that shape U.S. energy markets through 2040, under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain generally unchanged throughout the projection period. The early release provides a basis for the examination and discussion of energy market trends and serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules, or regulations or possible technology breakthroughs. Readers are encouraged to review the full range of cases that will be presented when the complete AEO2014 is released in 2014, exploring key

135

Use of Multiple Verification Methods to Evaluate Forecasts of Convection from Hot- and Cold-Start Convection-Allowing Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study uses both traditional and newer verification methods to evaluate two 4-km grid-spacing Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts: a “cold start” forecast that uses the 12-km North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) analysis and ...

Derek R. Stratman; Michael C. Coniglio; Steven E. Koch; Ming Xue

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

136

EIA - AEO2010 - Energy intensity trends in AEO2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

intensity trends in AEO2010 intensity trends in AEO2010 Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 Figure 17. Trends in U.S. oil prices, energy consumption, and economic output, 1950-2035 Click to enlarge » Figure source and data excel logo Energy intensity trends in AEO2010 Energy intensity—energy consumption per dollar of real GDP—indicates how much energy a country uses to produce its goods and services. From the early 1950s to the early 1970s, U.S. total primary energy consumption and real GDP increased at nearly the same annual rate (Figure 17). During that period, real oil prices remained virtually flat. In contrast, from the mid-1970s to 2008, the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP growth changed, with primary energy consumption growing at less than one-third the previous average rate and real GDP growth continuing to grow at its historical rate. The decoupling of real GDP growth from energy consumption growth led to a decline in energy intensity that averaged 2.8 percent per year from 1973 to 2008. In the AEO2010 Reference case, energy intensity continues to decline, at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from 2008 to 2035.

137

D:\0myfiles\AEO2007\Final for PDF\AEO2007\AEO2007.vp  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

7 7 (AEO2007), pre- pared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy sup- ply, demand, and prices through 2030. The projec- tions are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an "Overview" summarizing the AEO2007 reference case. The next section, "Leg- islation and Regulations," discusses evolving legisla- tion and regulatory issues, including recently enacted legislation and regulation, such as the new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for light- duty trucks finalized by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in March 2006. It also provides an update on the handling of key provi- sions in the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT2005) that could not be incorporated in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO2006) because of the absence

138

Evaluation of Eta–RSM Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The accuracy of short-range probabilistic forecasts of quantitative precipitation (PQPF) from the experimental Eta–Regional Spectral Model ensemble is compared with the accuracy of forecasts from the Nested Grid Model’s model output statistics (...

Thomas M. Hamill; Stephen J. Colucci

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

139

Forecasting Cloud Cover and Atmospheric Seeing for Astronomical Observing: Application and Evaluation of the Global Forecast System  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

To explore the issue of performing a non-interactive numerical weather forecast with an operational global model in assist of astronomical observing, we use the Xu-Randall cloud scheme and the Trinquet-Vernin AXP seeing model with the global numerical output from the Global Forecast System to generate 3-72h forecasts for cloud coverage and atmospheric seeing, and compare them with sequence observations from 9 sites from different regions of the world with different climatic background in the period of January 2008 to December 2009. The evaluation shows that the proportion of prefect forecast of cloud cover forecast varies from ~50% to ~85%. The probability of cloud detection is estimated to be around ~30% to ~90%, while the false alarm rate is generally moderate and is much lower than the probability of detection in most cases. The seeing forecast has a moderate mean difference (absolute mean difference <0.3" in most cases) and root-mean-square-error or RMSE (0.2"-0.4" in most cases) comparing with the obs...

Ye, Q -z

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

140

Evaluating Covariance Matrix Forecasts in a Value-at-Risk Framework  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

: Covariance matrix forecasts of financial asset returns are an important component of current practice in financial risk management. A wide variety of models are available for generating such forecasts. In this paper, we evaluate the relative performance of different covariance matrix forecasts using standard statistical loss functions and a value-at-risk (VaR) framework. Using a foreign exchange portfolio, we find covariance matrix forecasts generated from option prices perform best under statistical loss functions, such as mean-squared error. Within a VaR framework, the relative performance of covariance matrix forecasts depends greatly on the VaR models' distributional assumptions. Of the forecasts examined, simple specifications, such as exponentially-weighted moving averages of past observations, perform best with regard to the magnitude of VaR exceptions and regulatory capital requirements. Our results provide empirical support for the commonly-used VaR models based on simple c...

Jose A. Lopez; Christian A. Walter

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


141

Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting model for two frost events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Meso-local-scale weather information could be used as a guideline for crop protection to effectively manage and mitigate the effects of frost damage. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the meso-local-scale weather forecasts from the state-of-the-art ... Keywords: Frost protection, Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network, Temperature prediction, Weather Research and Forecasting model

Thara Prabha; Gerrit Hoogenboom

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

142

Performance evaluation of competing forecasting models: A multidimensional framework based on MCDA  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

So far, competing forecasting models are compared to each other using a single criterion at a time, which often leads to different rankings for different criteria - a situation where one cannot make an informed decision as to which model performs best ... Keywords: Crude oil prices, Forecasting models, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Performance evaluation

Bing Xu; Jamal Ouenniche

2012-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

143

An Evaluation of the Darwin Area Forecast Experiment Storm Occurrence Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results from real-time forecasting the occurrence of storm activity during “break” and “transition” season flow within two 10-km-radius circles for periods up to 3 h in the tropics near Darwin, Australia (12°S, 131°E), are described. The ...

T. Keenan; R. Potts; T. Stevenson

1992-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

144

Evaluation of the NCEP Global Forecast System at the ARM SGP Site  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study evaluates the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) against observations made by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program at the southern ...

Fanglin Yang; Hua-Lu Pan; Steven K. Krueger; Shrinivas Moorthi; Stephen J. Lord

2006-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

145

Evaluation of IRI’s Seasonal Climate Forecasts for the Extreme 15% Tails  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper evaluates the quality of real-time seasonal probabilistic forecasts of the extreme 15% tails of the climatological distribution of temperature and precipitation issued by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)...

Anthony G. Barnston; Simon J. Mason

2011-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

146

Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A tropical cyclone (TC) wind speed probability forecast product developed at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) and adopted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is evaluated for U.S. land-threatening and landfalling ...

Michael E. Splitt; Jaclyn A. Shafer; Steven M. Lazarus; William P. Roeder

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

147

A novel multi-scale intensity metric for evaluation of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study, a new Multi-Scale Intensity (MSI) metric for evaluating Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts is presented. The metric consists of the resolvable and observable, low wavenumber intensity represented by the sum of amplitudes of ...

Tomislava Vukicevic; Eric Uhlhorn; Paul Reasor; Bradley Klotz

148

Energy Intensity Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Energy intensity (energy consumption per dollar of real GDP) indicates how much energy a country uses to produce its goods and services. From the early 1950s to the early 1970s, U.S. total primary energy consumption and real GDP increased at nearly the same annual rate (Figure 17). During that period, real oil prices remained virtually flat. In contrast, from the mid-1970s to 2008, the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP growth changed, with primary energy consumption growing at less than one-third the previous average rate and real GDP growth continuing to grow at its historical rate. The decoupling of real GDP growth from energy consumption growth led to a decline in energy intensity that averaged 2.8 percent per year from 1973 to 2008. In the AEO2010 Reference case, energy intensity continues to decline, at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from 2008 to 2035.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

149

Workshop on Biofuels Projections in AEO Presenters Biographies  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Presenters' Biographies 1 Presenters' Biographies 1 March 2013 Workshop on Biofuels Projections in AEO Presenters' Biographies (by presentation order) John Conti John J. Conti is the Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis at EIA. Mr. Conti analyzes energy supply, demand, and prices including the impact of financial markets on energy markets; prepares reports on current and future energy use; analyzes the impact of energy policies; and develops advanced techniques for conducting energy information analyses. He also oversees the planning and execution of EIA's analysis and forecasting programs to ensure that EIA models, analyses, and projections meet the highest standards of relevance, reliability, and timeliness. Mr. Conti spent nearly 30 years working for the U.S. Department of Energy. Mr. Conti

150

EIA - AEO2010 - Clean Air Interstate Rule: Changes and modeling in AEO2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Clean Air Interstate Rule: Changes and modeling in AEO2010 Clean Air Interstate Rule: Changes and modeling in AEO2010 Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 Clean Air Interstate Rule: Changes and modeling in AEO2010 On December 23, 2008, the D.C. Circuit Court remanded but did not vacate CAIR [17], overriding its previous decision on February 8, 2008, to remand and vacate CAIR. The December decision, which is reflected in AEO2010, allows CAIR to remain in effect, providing time for the EPA to modify the rule in order to address objections raised by the Court in its earlier decision. A similar rule, referred to as the CAMR, which was to set up a cap-and-trade system for reducing mercury emissions by approximately 70 percent, is not represented in the AEO2010 projections, because it was vacated by the D.C. Circuit Court in February 2008.

151

Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030 Only GII produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2006. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as others that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal, are compared here with the AEO2006 projections. Economic Growth In the AEO2006 reference case, the projected growth in real GDP, based on 2000 chain-weighted dollars, is 3.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030 (Table 19). For the period from 2004 to 2025, real GDP growth in the AEO2006 reference case is similar to the average annual growth projected in AEO2005. The AEO2006 projections of economic growth are based on the August short-term forecast of GII, extended by EIA through 2030 and modified to reflect EIA’s view on energy prices, demand, and production.

152

Annual Energy Outlook 2001 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Economic Growth World Oil Prices Total Energy Consumption Residential and Commercial Sectors Industrial Sector Transportation Sector Electricity Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Three other organizations—Standard & Poor’s DRI (DRI), the WEFA Group (WEFA), and the Gas Research Institute (GRI) [95]—also produce comprehensive energy projections with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2001. The most recent projections from those organizations (DRI, Spring/Summer 2000; WEFA, 1st Quarter 2000; GRI, January 2000), as well as other forecasts that concentrate on petroleum, natural gas, and international oil markets, are compared here with the AEO2001 projections. Economic Growth Differences in long-run economic forecasts can be traced primarily to

153

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8 8 Table 13. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts (million short tons) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 805 825 843 868 896 936 AEO 1983 807 831 848 870 899 928 1061 AEO 1984 843 848 866 889 919 958 1110 AEO 1985 818 833 842 853 867 891 918 943 970 989 1008 AEO 1986 813 831 860 870 888 919 945 972 995 1021 1038 1051 1069 1083 1105 AEO 1987 837 837 854 879 896 912 932 954 975 1059 AEO 1989* 872 882 894 903 927 947 965 987 990 1006 1026 1045 1062 AEO 1990 884 893 984 1049 1207 AEO 1991 893 902 918 932 943 948 962 973 984 991 1003 1003 1011 1030 1056 1078 AEO 1992 905 934 919 925 934 944 953 961 971 993 1003 1011 1020 1037 1055 AEO 1993 929 931 940 947 958 965 970 972 987 997 1004 1010 1018 1032 AEO 1994 920 928 933 938 943 948 953 958 962 967 978 990 987 AEO 1995 935 940 941 947 948 951 954 958 963 971 984 992 AEO 1996 937 942 954 962 983

154

A sensitivity analysis of the treatment of wind energy in the AEO99 version of NEMS  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Each year, the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes a forecast of the domestic energy economy in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). During the forecast period of the AEO (currently through 2020), renewable energy technologies have typically not achieved significant growth. The contribution of renewable technologies as electric generators becomes more important, however, in scenarios analyzing greenhouse gas emissions reductions or significant technological advancements. We examined the economic assumptions about wind power used for producing forecasts with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to determine their influence on the projected capacity expansion of this technology. This analysis should help illustrate to policymakers what types of issues may affect wind development, and improve the general understanding of the NEMS model itself. Figure 1 illustrates the model structure and factors relevant to wind deployment. We found that NEMS uses various cost multipliers and constraints to represent potential physical and economic limitations to growth in wind capacity, such as resource depletion, costs associated with rapid manufacturing expansion, and grid stability with high levels of capacity from intermittent resources. The model's flexibility allows the user to make alternative assumptions about the magnitude of these factors. While these assumptions have little effect on the Reference Case forecast for the 1999 edition of the AEO, they can make a dramatic difference when wind is more attractive, such as under a carbon permit trading system. With $100/ton carbon permits, the wind capacity projection for 2020 ranges from 15 GW in the unaltered model (AEO99 Reference Case) to 168 GW in the extreme case when all the multipliers and constraints examined in this study are removed. Furthermore, if modifications are made to the model allowing inter-regional transmission of electricity, wind capacity is forecast to reach 214 GW when all limitations are removed. The figures in the upper end of these ranges are not intended to be viewed as reasonable projections, but their magnitude illustrates the importance of the parameters governing the growth of wind capacity and resource availability in forecasts using NEMS. In addition, many uncertainties exist regarding these assumptions that potentially affect the growth of wind power. We suggest several areas in which to focus future research in order to better model the potential development of this resource. Because many of the assumptions related to wind in the model are also used for other renewable technologies, these suggestions could be applied to other renewable resources as well.

Osborn, Julie G; Wood, Frances; Richey, Cooper; Sanders, Sandy; Short, Walter; Koomey, Jonathan

2001-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

155

EIA - AEO2010 - Coal projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Coal Projections Coal Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 Coal Projections Figure 88. Coal production by region, 1970-2035 Click to enlarge » Figure source and data excel logo Figure 89. U.S. coal production in six cases, 2008, 2020, and 2035 Click to enlarge » Figure source and data excel logo Figure 90. Average annual minemouth coal prices by region, 1990-2035 Click to enlarge » Figure source and data excel logo Figure 91. Average annual delivered coal prices in four cases, 1990-2035 Click to enlarge » Figure source and data excel logo Figure 92. Change in U.S. coal consumption by end use in two cases, 2008-2035 Click to enlarge » Figure source and data excel logo Coal production increases at a slower rate than in the past In the AEO2010 Reference case, increasing coal use for electricity generation, along with the startup of several CTL plants, leads to growth in coal production averaging 0.2 percent per year from 2008 to 2035. This is significantly less than the 0.9-percent average growth rate for U.S. coal production from 1980 to 2008.

156

AEO2011: Electricity Trade | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Trade Trade Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 10, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses billion kilowatthours. The data is broken down into Interregional Electricity trade, gross domestic sales, international electricity trade, imports and exports to Canada and Mexico. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA electricity trade Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electricity Trade- Reference Case (xls, 34.4 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035

157

2017 Levelized Costs AEO 2012 Early Release  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

2018 Levelized Costs AEO 2013 1 2018 Levelized Costs AEO 2013 1 January 2013 Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 This paper presents average levelized costs for generating technologies that are brought on line in 2018 1 as represented in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) Early Release Reference case. 2 Both national values and the minimum and maximum values across the 22 U.S. regions of the NEMS electricity market module are presented. Levelized cost is often cited as a convenient summary measure of the overall competiveness of different generating technologies. It represents the per-kilowatthour cost (in real dollars) of building and operating a generating plant over an assumed financial life and duty cycle. Key

158

Efficiency and Intensity in the AEO 2010  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

Session 9 Session 9 Energy Efficiency: Measuring Gains and Quantifying Opportunities April 7, 2010 2010 Energy Conference Washington, DC Steve Wade, Economist Efficiency and Intensity in the AEO 2010 Steve Wade, 2010 Energy Conference, April 7, 2010 2 * What are the sources of efficiency in the AEO 2010? * What is the contribution of energy efficiency to projected U.S. energy intensity? * How do AEO scenarios relate to technical potential? Overview Steve Wade, 2010 Energy Conference, April 7, 2010 3 * Technology - Stock turnover - Progress and learning * Mandates - CAFÉ, efficiency standards (NAECA, EPACT), building codes... - Renewable fuel standards * Incentives - Tax credits, loan guarantees, grants, ... ïł Energy efficiency and renewables - ACESA, ARRA (stimulus bill) ... ïł Investment tax credits

159

Alternatives to the Chi-Square Test for Evaluating Rank Histograms from Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Rank histograms are a commonly used tool for evaluating an ensemble forecasting system’s performance. Because the sample size is finite, the rank histogram is subject to statistical fluctuations, so a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is employed to ...

Kimberly L. Elmore

2005-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

160

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

9 9 Table 14. Coal Production, Actual vs. Forecasts (million short tons) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 914 939 963 995 1031 1080 AEO 1983 900 926 947 974 1010 1045 1191 AEO 1984 899 921 948 974 1010 1057 1221 AEO 1985 886 909 930 940 958 985 1015 1041 1072 1094 1116 AEO 1986 890 920 954 962 983 1017 1044 1073 1097 1126 1142 1156 1176 1191 1217 AEO 1987 917 914 932 962 978 996 1020 1043 1068 1149 AEO 1989* 941 946 977 990 1018 1039 1058 1082 1084 1107 1130 1152 1171 AEO 1990 973 987 1085 1178 1379 AEO 1991 1035 1002 1016 1031 1043 1054 1065 1079 1096 1111 1133 1142 1160 1193 1234 1272 AEO 1992 1004 1040 1019 1034 1052 1064 1074 1087 1102 1133 1144 1156 1173 1201 1229 AEO 1993 1039 1043 1054 1065 1076 1086 1094 1102 1125 1136 1148 1161 1178 1204 AEO 1994 999 1021 1041 1051 1056 1066 1073 1081 1087 1098 1107 1122 1121 AEO 1995

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
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to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


161

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part III: Forecasting with Secondary-Applications Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Output from the Army Test and Evaluation Command’s Four-Dimensional Weather System’s mesoscale model is used to drive secondary-applications models to produce forecasts of quantities of importance for daily decision making at U.S. Army test ...

Robert D. Sharman; Yubao Liu; Rong-Shyang Sheu; Thomas T. Warner; Daran L. Rife; James F. Bowers; Charles A. Clough; Edward E. Ellison

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

162

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2013 Data Tables  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Levelized generation costs; Model documentation; Capital cost for electricity plants; About the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Retrospective Review for AEO2011;

163

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity Coordinating Council Northwest Power Pool Area This...

164

AEO2011: Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices This dataset comes...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is...

165

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Consumption by Sector and Source This...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Consumption by Sector and Source This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset...

166

AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - Pacific This...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Pacific This dataset comes from the Electric Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This data reflects Table 9, and...

167

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998  

SciTech Connect

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

NONE

1998-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

168

2017 Levelized Costs AEO 2012 Early Release  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Host and Presentor Contact Information 1 Host and Presentor Contact Information 1 March 2013 Workshop on Biofuels Projections in AEO Host and Presentor Contact Information Hosts: Mindi Farber-DeAnda Team Lead, Energy Information Administration, Biofuels and Emerging Technologies Mindi.Farber-DeAnda@eia.gov 202-586-6419 Vishakh Mantri, Ph.D, P.E. Chemical Engineer, Energy Information Administration, Biofuels and Emerging Technologies Team Vishakh.Mantri@eia.gov 202-586-4815 Presenters: Biofuels in the United States: Context and Outlook Howard Gruenspecht Deputy Administrator, Energy Information Administration Howard.gruenspecht@eia.gov 202-586-6351 Modeling of Biofuels in the AEO, Michael Cole Operations Research Analyst, Energy Information Administration, Liquid Fuels Market Team

169

Comparing Efficiency Projections (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Realized improvements in energy efficiency generally rely on a combination of technology and economics [47]. The figure below illustrates the role of technology assumptions in the AEO2010 projections for energy efficiency in the residential and commercial buildings sector. Projected energy consumption in the Reference case is compared with projections in the Best Available Technology, High Technology, and 2009 Technology cases and an estimate based on an assumption of no change in efficiency for building shells and equipment.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

170

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 Table 16. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Forecasts (billion kilowatt-hours) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 2364 2454 2534 2626 2708 2811 AEO 1983 2318 2395 2476 2565 2650 2739 3153 AEO 1984 2321 2376 2461 2551 2637 2738 3182 AEO 1985 2317 2360 2427 2491 2570 2651 2730 2808 2879 2949 3026 AEO 1986 2363 2416 2479 2533 2608 2706 2798 2883 2966 3048 3116 3185 3255 3324 3397 AEO 1987 2460 2494 2555 2622 2683 2748 2823 2902 2977 3363 AEO 1989* 2556 2619 2689 2760 2835 2917 2994 3072 3156 3236 3313 3394 3473 AEO 1990 2612 2689 3083 3488 3870 AEO 1991 2700 2762 2806 2855 2904 2959 3022 3088 3151 3214 3282 3355 3427 3496 3563 3632 AEO 1992 2746 2845 2858 2913 2975 3030 3087 3146 3209 3276 3345 3415 3483 3552 3625 AEO 1993 2803 2840 2893 2946 2998 3052 3104 3157 3214 3271 3327 3383 3438 3491 AEO 1994 2843 2891 2928

171

Evaluation of 33 Years of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the NMC  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The National Meteorological Center (NMC) initiated Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and an intensive QPF verification program in 1960. These forecast products have evolved from a manual effort, relying on extensive forecast experience ...

David A. Olson; Norman W. Junker; Brian Korty

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

172

Evaluation of Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Time-Lagged Multimodel Ensemble  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) and probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs) are investigated for a time-lagged multimodel ensemble forecast system. One of the advantages of such an ensemble forecast system is its low-cost generation of ...

Huiling Yuan; Chungu Lu; John A. McGinley; Paul J. Schultz; Brian D. Jamison; Linda Wharton; Christopher J. Anderson

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

173

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2009 (released in AEO2009)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The oil prices reported in AEO2009 represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars [50]. Projections of future supply and demand are made for liquids, a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquidsin addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Information Center

2009-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

174

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters aim at convincing the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the realized state. If the market expects forecaster honesty, forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded.

Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sűrensen

2003-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

175

Potential for Renewable Energy Development: Alternatives to AEO2001  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Preface The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) has developed for analysis of policy initiatives. The reference case projections of the AEO assume continuing market changesLBNL-51499 Potential for Renewable Energy Development: Alternatives to AEO2001 Julie Osborn

176

EPACT2005: Status of Provisions (Update) (released in AEO2007)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

EPACT2005 was signed into law by President Bush on August 8, 2005, and became Public Law 109-058. A number of provisions from EPACT2005 were included in the AEO2006 projections. Many others were not considered in AEO2006particularly, those that require funding appropriations or further specification by Federal agencies or Congress before implementation.

Information Center

2007-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

177

EIA - AEO2010 - World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010 World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010 Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 World oil prices and production trends in AEO2010 In AEO2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or “sweet”) crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. EIA makes projections of future supply and demand for “total liquids,” which includes conventional petroleum liquids—such as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain—in addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil. World oil prices can be influenced by a multitude of factors. Some tend to be short term, such as movements in exchange rates, financial markets, and weather, and some are longer term, such as expectations concerning future demand and production decisions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In 2009, the interaction of market factors led prompt month contracts (contracts for the nearest traded month) for crude oil to rise relatively steadily from a January average of $41.68 per barrel to a December average of $74.47 per barrel [38].

178

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2008 (released in AEO2008)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

AEO2008 defines the world oil price as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both above ground and below ground factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oil prices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oil prices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non- OECD countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oil prices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. EIA will continue to monitor world oil price trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

Information Center

2008-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

179

Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2025 - Forecast Comparisons  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Forecast Comparisons Forecast Comparisons Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Forecast Comparisons Table 32. Forecasts of annual average economic growth, 2003-2025 Printer Friendly Version Average annual percentage growth Forecast 2003-2009 2003-2014 2003-2025 AEO2004 3.5 3.2 3.0 AEO2005 Reference 3.4 3.3 3.1 Low growth 2.9 2.8 2.5 High growth 4.1 3.9 3.6 GII 3.4 3.2 3.1 OMB 3.6 NA NA CBO 3.5 3.1 NA OEF 3.5 3.5 NA Only one other organization—Global Insight, Incorporated (GII)—produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2005. Other organizations address one or more aspects of the energy markets. The most recent projection from GII, as well as other forecasts that concentrate on economic growth, international oil prices, energy

180

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

EIA Administrator's Press Briefing on the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) Annual Energy Outlook 1998 - Errata as of 3698 Data from the AEO98 Assumptions to the AEO98 (Nat'Gas...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


181

EIA - AEO2010 - Issues in Focus  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Issues in Focus Issues in Focus Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 Issues in Focus Introduction Each year, the Issues in Focus section of the AEO provides an in-depth discussion on topics of special interest, including significant changes in assumptions and recent developments in technologies for energy production, supply, and consumption. The first section compares the results of two cases that adopt different assumptions about the future course of existing energy policies. One case assumes the elimination of sunset provisions in existing energy policies. The other case assumes the extension of a selected group of existing policies—CAFE standards, appliance standards, and PTCs—in addition to the elimination of sunset provisions. Other sections include a discussion of end-use energy efficiency trends in AEO2010; an analysis of the impact of incentives on the use of natural gas in heavy freight trucks; factors affecting the relationship between crude oil and natural gas prices; the sensitivity of the projection results to variations in assumptions about the availability of U.S. shale gas resources; the implications of retiring nuclear plants after 60 years of operation; and issues related to accounting for CO2 emissions from biomass energy combustion.

182

EIA - AEO2010 - Legislation and Regulations  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Legislation and Regulations Legislation and Regulations Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 Legislation and Regulations Introduction The Reference case projections in AEO2010 generally assume that current laws and regulations affecting the energy sector remain unchanged throughout the projection period (including the implication that laws which include sunset dates do, in fact, become ineffective at the time of those sunset dates). The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards—or of sections of legislation that have been enacted but that require regulations for which the implementing agency will exercise major discretion, or require appropriation of funds that are not provided or specified in the legislation itself—are not reflected in the Reference case projections. However, sensitivity cases that incorporate alternative assumptions about the future of existing policies subject to periodic updates also are included. The Federal and State laws and regulations included in AEO2010 are based on those in effect as of the end of October 2009. In addition, at the request of the Administration and Congress, EIA has regularly examined the potential implications of proposed legislation in Service Reports (see EIA Service Reports released since January 2009).

183

Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part I: Meteorological Evaluation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper addresses the question of whether it is better to include lower-resolution members of a nested suite of numerical precipitation forecasts to increase ensemble size, or to utilize high-resolution members only to maximize forecast ...

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

184

Evaluation of a Wind-Wave System for Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Wave Forecasting. Part II: Waves  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A wind-wave forecast system, designed with the intention of generating unbiased ensemble wave forecasts for extreme wind events, is assessed. Wave hindcasts for 12 tropical cyclones (TCs) are forced using a wind analysis produced from a ...

Steven M. Lazarus; Samuel T. Wilson; Michael E. Splitt; Gary A. Zarillo

2013-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

185

An evaluation of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from global numerical models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from global numerical models. While some research has investigated the skill of various models with respect to track and intensity, few studies have considered how well global models forecast ...

Daniel J. Halperin; Henry E. Fuelberg; Robert E. Hart; Joshua H. Cossuth; Philip Sura; Richard J. Pasch

186

A Systematic Economic Approach to Evaluating Public Investment in Observations for Weather Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Observations of the current state of the atmosphere are a major input to production of modern weather forecasts. As a result, investments in observations are a major component of public expenditures related to weather forecasting. Consequently, ...

Rebecca E. Morss; Kathleen A. Miller; Maxine S. Vasil

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

187

Evaluating Forecasters' Rules of Thumb: A Study of d(prog)/dt  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasters often develop rules of thumb for adjusting model guidance. Ideally, before use, these rules of thumb should be validated through a careful comparison of model forecasts and observations over a large sample. Practically, such ...

Thomas M. Hamill

2003-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

188

An evaluation of market penetration forecasting methodologies for new residential and commercial energy technologies  

SciTech Connect

Forecasting market penetration is an essential step in the development and assessment of new technologies. This report reviews several methodologies that are available for market penetration forecasting. The primary objective of this report is to help entrepreneurs understand these methodologies and aid in the selection of one or more of them for application to a particular new technology. This report also illustrates the application of these methodologies, using examples of new technologies, such as the heat pump, drawn from the residential and commercial sector. The report concludes with a brief discussion of some considerations in selecting a forecasting methodology for a particular situation. It must be emphasized that the objective of this report is not to construct a specific market penetration model for new technologies but only to provide a comparative evaluation of methodologies that would be useful to an entrepreneur who is unfamiliar with the range of techniques available. The specific methodologies considered in this report are as follows: subjective estimation methods, market surveys, historical analogy models, time series models, econometric models, diffusion models, economic cost models, and discrete choice models. In addition to these individual methodologies, which range from the very simple to the very complex, two combination approaches are also briefly discussed: (1) the economic cost model combined with the diffusion model and (2) the discrete choice model combined with the diffusion model. This discussion of combination methodologies is not meant to be exhaustive. Rather, it is intended merely to show that many methodologies often can complement each other. A combination of two or more different approaches may be better than a single methodology alone.

Raju, P.S.; Teotia, A.P.S.

1985-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

189

Clean Air Interstate Rule: Changes and Modeling in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

On December 23, 2008, the D.C. Circuit Court remanded but did not vacate CAIR, overriding its previous decision on February 8, 2008, to remand and vacate CAIR. The December decision, which is reflected in AEO2010, allows CAIR to remain in effect, providing time for the EPA to modify the rule in order to address objections raised by the Court in its earlier decision. A similar rule, referred to as the CAMR, which was to set up a cap-and-trade system for reducing mercury emissions by approximately 70 percent, is not represented in the AEO2010 projections, because it was vacated by the D.C. Circuit Court in February 2008.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

190

World Oil Prices and Production Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

In AEO2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or sweet) crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. EIA makes projections of future supply and demand for total liquids, which includes conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gainin addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

191

AEO2011: Petroleum Product Prices | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

4932 4932 Varnish cache server AEO2011: Petroleum Product Prices Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 12, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses 2009 dollars per gallon. The data is broken down into crude oil prices, residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power and refined petroleum product prices. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Petroleum prices Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Petroleum Product Prices- Reference Case (xls, 129.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

192

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council NYC-Westchester This dataset comes...

193

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Southwest Power...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Southwest Power Pool South This dataset comes from the Energy Information...

194

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council Northeast This dataset comes from...

195

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council Long Island This dataset comes from...

196

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council Upstate New York This dataset comes...

197

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Southwest Power...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Southwest Power Pool North This dataset comes from the Energy Information...

198

AEO2011:Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary ...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AEO2011:Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary

199

AEO2011: Coal Production and Minemouth Prices by Region This...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

and Minemouth Prices by Region This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is...

200

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Texas Regional...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Texas Regional Entity This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 98,...

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


201

EIA - AEO2010 - Trends in Economic Activity  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Trends in Economic Activity Trends in Economic Activity Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 Trends in Economic Activity Real gross domestic product returns to its pre-recession level by 2011 AEO2010 presents three views of economic growth (Figure 31). The rate of growth in real GDP depends on assumptions about labor force growth and productivity. In the Reference case, growth in real GDP averages 2.4 percent per year. Figure 31. Average annual growth rates of real GDP, labot force, and productivity in three cases, 2008-2035 Click to enlarge » Figure source and data excel logo Figure 32. Average annual inflation, interest, and unemployment rates in three cases, 2008-2035 Click to enlarge » Figure source and data excel logo Figure 33. Sectoral composition of industrial output growth rates in three cases, 2008-2035

202

Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Zhao, Feng

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

203

Annual Energy Outlook 1998 Forecasts - Preface  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1998 With Projections to 2020 1998 With Projections to 2020 Annual Energy Outlook 1999 Report will be Available on December 9, 1998 Preface The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an “Overview” summarizing the AEO98 reference case. The next section, “Legislation and Regulations,” describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. “Issues in Focus” discusses three current energy issues—electricity restructuring, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis

204

Evaluation of MM5 High-Resolution Real-Time Forecasts over the Urban Area of Athens, Greece  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) forecast skill over an area of complex terrain is evaluated. Namely, the model is verified over a period of 1 yr (2002)...

V. Kotroni; K. Lagouvardos

2004-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

205

Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

2012-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

206

Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part II: Economic Evaluation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Two economic models are employed to perform a value assessment of short-range ensemble forecasts of 24-h precipitation probabilities for hydroelectric reservoir operation.

Doug McCollor; Roland Stull

2008-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

207

Evaluation of numerical weather prediction for intra-day solar forecasting in the continental United States  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

MOS), Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Solar Forecasting of numerical weather prediction for intra?day solar solar energy applications based on aerosol chemical transport and  numerical weather 

Mathiesen, Patrick; Kleissl, Jan

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

208

Forecasting exurban development to evaluate the influence of land-use policies on wildland and farmland conservation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Planning Vol 1 (2005) 40—57 Forecasting exurban developmentof general plans for forecasting future development can be

Merenlender, Adina M.; Brooks, Colin; Shabazian, David; Gao, Shengyi; Johnston, Robert A.

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

209

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

210

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area

211

Evaluation of Atmospheric Fields from the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasts over a 15-Year Period  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Since 1997, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has made seasonal forecasts with ensembles of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model, System-1 (S1). In January 2002, a new version, System-2 (S2), was introduced. For the ...

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh; Magdalena A. Balmaseda; Laura Ferranti; Timothy N. Stockdale; David L. T. Anderson

2005-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

212

Object-Based Evaluation of the Impact of Horizontal Grid Spacing on Convection-Allowing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts generated by the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms with 1- and 4-km grid spacing using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF; ARW1 and ARW4, respectively) for the 2009–11 NOAA Hazardous Weather ...

Aaron Johnson; Xuguang Wang; Fanyou Kong; Ming Xue

2013-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

213

Evaluation of a Simple Numerical Model as a Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Tool  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the America's Cup race series of 1986–1987, a numerical sea breeze model was used to assist offshore forecasts. The exercise has provided a detailed insight into the extent to which such a model may assist the forecasting process the ...

P. J. Rye

1989-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

214

Space-time forecasting and evaluation of wind speed with statistical tests for comparing accuracy of spatial predictions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

High-quality short-term forecasts of wind speed are vital to making wind power a more reliable energy source. Gneiting et al. (2006) have introduced a model for the average wind speed two hours ahead based on both spatial and temporal information. The forecasts produced by this model are accurate, and subject to accuracy, the predictive distribution is sharp, i.e., highly concentrated around its center. However, this model is split into nonunique regimes based on the wind direction at an off-site location. This work both generalizes and improves upon this model by treating wind direction as a circular variable and including it in the model. It is robust in many experiments, such as predicting at new locations. This is compared with the more common approach of modeling wind speeds and directions in the Cartesian space and use a skew-t distribution for the errors. The quality of the predictions from all of these models can be more realistically assessed with a loss measure that depends upon the power curve relating wind speed to power output. This proposed loss measure yields more insight into the true value of each model's predictions. One method of evaluating time series forecasts, such as wind speed forecasts, is to test the null hypothesis of no difference in the accuracy of two competing sets of forecasts. Diebold and Mariano (1995) proposed a test in this setting that has been extended and widely applied. It allows the researcher to specify a wide variety of loss functions, and the forecast errors can be non-Gaussian, nonzero mean, serially correlated, and contemporaneously correlated. In this work, a similar unconditional test of forecast accuracy for spatial data is proposed. The forecast errors are no longer potentially serially correlated but spatially correlated. Simulations will illustrate the properties of this test, and an example with daily average wind speeds measured at over 100 locations in Oklahoma will demonstrate its use. This test is compared with a wavelet-based method introduced by Shen et al. (2002) in which the presence of a spatial signal at each location in the dataset is tested.

Hering, Amanda S.

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

215

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Northeast Power  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

NYC-Westchester NYC-Westchester Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 78, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power Northeast projections Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / NYC-Westchester - Reference Case (xls, 259.2 KiB)

216

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Florida Reliability  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Florida Reliability Florida Reliability Coordinating Council Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 74, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power Florida projections Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Florida Reliability Coordinating Council- Reference Case (xls, 259.3 KiB)

217

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Reliability First  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Reliability First Reliability First Corporation / West Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 83, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power projections Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Reliability First Corporation / West- Reference Case (xls, 259.5 KiB)

218

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Northwest Power Pool Area Northwest Power Pool Area Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 118, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. This dataset contains data for the northwest power pool area of the U.S. Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Northwest Power Pool Area Renewable Energy Generation WECC Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Northwest Power Pool Area - Reference (xls, 119.3 KiB)

219

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

California California Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 92, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released August 10th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO California EIA Electric Power projections Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / California- Reference Case (xls, 259.5 KiB)

220

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - SERC Reliability  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Gateway Gateway Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 85, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power projection Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - SERC Reliability Corporation / Gateway - Reference Case (xls, 259 KiB)

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


221

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Long Island Long Island Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 104, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Long Island Renewable Energy Generation Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Long Island- Reference Case (xls, 118.8 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment

222

AEO2011: Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices Supply, Disposition, and Prices Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 15, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts. The data is broken down into production, net imports, consumption by sector and price. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO coal coal supply disposition. prices EIA Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Coal Supply, Disposition, and Prices- Reference Case (xls, 91.7 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL)

223

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Southwest Southwest Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 91, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power projections Southwest WECC Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Southwest- Reference Case (xls, 259.1 KiB)

224

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Midwest Reliability Council  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

West West Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 101, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Generation Fuel midwest Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Midwest Reliability Council / West- Reference Case (xls, 119 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

225

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Upstate New York Upstate New York Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 105, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Renewable Energy Generation Upstate New York Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Upstate New York- Reference Case (xls, 119 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

226

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Delta Delta Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 109, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO Delta EIA Renewable Energy Generation SERC Reliability Corporation Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation / Delta- Reference Case (xls, 118.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment

227

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Texas Regional Entity |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Texas Regional Entity Texas Regional Entity Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 98, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Generation Fuel Texas Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Texas Regional Entity- Reference Case (xls, 118.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

228

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Northeast Northeast Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 102, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Generation Northeast Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Northeast- Reference Case (xls, 119 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

229

AEO2011: Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 11, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million barrels per day. The data is broken down into crude oil, other petroleum supply, other non petroleum supply and liquid fuel consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO disposition EIA liquid fuels Supply Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition- Reference Case (xls, 117 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

230

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Midwest Reliability  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

West West Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 76, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power midwest projections Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Midwest Reliability Council / West- Reference Case (xls, 259.1 KiB)

231

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Virginia-Carolina Virginia-Carolina Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 113, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO Carolina EIA Renewable Energy Generation SERC Reliability Corporation Virginia Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation / Virginia-Carolina- Reference Case (xls, 118.9 KiB) Quality Metrics

232

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Northwest Power Pool Area Northwest Power Pool Area Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 93, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power Northwest Power Pool Area projections Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Northwest Power Pool Area (xls, 259.1 KiB)

233

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Southeastern Southeastern Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 111, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Renewable Energy Generation SERC Reliability Corporation Southeastern Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation / Southeastern- Reference Case (xls, 119 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

234

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Reliability First  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

East East Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 106, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released July 25th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO East EIA Renewable Energy Generation Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Reliability First Corporation / East- Reference Case (xls, 119 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

235

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Reliability First  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

9643 9643 Varnish cache server AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Reliability First Corporation / Michigan Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 82, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power Michigan projections Data Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

236

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - SERC Reliability  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Southeastern Southeastern Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 86, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power projections Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - SERC Reliability Corporation / Southeastern- Reference Case (xls, 259.3 KiB)

237

AEO2011: Natural Gas Imports and Exports | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Imports and Exports Imports and Exports Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 135, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into Crude oil, dry natural gas. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA exports imports Natural Gas Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Natural Gas Imports and Exports- Reference Case (xls, 48.8 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL) Comment Rate this dataset Usefulness of the metadata

238

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Southwest Southwest Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 116, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Renewable Energy Generation Southwest Western Electricity Coordinating Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Southwest (xls, 119.1 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

239

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - SERC Reliability  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Central Central Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 87, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO central EIA Electric power projections Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - SERC Reliability Corporation / Central- Reference Case (xls, 259.1 KiB)

240

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Reliability First  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Michigan Michigan Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 107, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Michigan Reliability First Corporation Renewable Energy Generation Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Reliability First Corporation / Michigan- Reference Case (xls, 118.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


241

AEO2011: Electricity Generation by Electricity Market Module Region and  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Generation by Electricity Market Module Region and Generation by Electricity Market Module Region and Source Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 96, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses billion kilowatthours. The data is broken down into texas regional entity, Florida reliability coordinating council, midwest reliability council and northeast power coordination council. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electricity generation Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electricity Generation by Electricity Market Module Region and Source- Reference Case (xls, 400.2 KiB) Quality Metrics

242

AEO2011: Imported Liquids by Source | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Imported Liquids by Source Imported Liquids by Source Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 146, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million barrels per day. The data is broken down into crude oil, light refined products and heavy refined products. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA imports liquids Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Imported Liquids by Source- Reference Case (xls, 85.2 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL)

243

AEO2011: Electricity Generating Capacity | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Generating Capacity Generating Capacity Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 9, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts. The data is broken down into power only, combined heat and power, cumulative planned additions, cumulative unplanned conditions, and cumulative retirements and total electric power sector capacity . Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO capacity consumption EIA Electricity generating Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electricity Generating Capacity- Reference Case (xls, 130.1 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

244

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Midwest Reliability Council  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

East East Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 100, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Generation Fuel midwest Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Midwest Reliability Council / East- Reference Case (xls, 118.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

245

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Northeast Power  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Northeast Northeast Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 77, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power Northeast projections Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Northeast- Reference Case (xls, 259.2 KiB)

246

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Gateway Gateway Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 110, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Gateway Reliability First Corporation SERC Reliability Corporation Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011:Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation / Gateway- Reference Case (xls, 118.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

247

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Reliability First  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

West West Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 108, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Reliability First Corporation Renewable Energy Generation West Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Reliability First Corporation / West- Reference Case (xls, 119 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment

248

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Rockies Rockies Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 94, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power projections Rockies Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Rockies- Reference Case (xls, 258.8 KiB)

249

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Florida Reliability  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Florida Reliability Florida Reliability Coordinating Council Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 99, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released July 20th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Generation Florida Fuel Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Florida Reliability Coordinating Council- Reference Case (xls, 118.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

250

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

NYC-Westchester NYC-Westchester Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 103, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Generation Fuel Westchester Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / NYC-Westchester- Reference Case (xls, 118.8 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment

251

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Rockies Rockies Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 119, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. The dataset contains data for the Rockies region of WECC. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Renewable Energy Generation Rockies WECC Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Rockies- Reference Case (xls, 119 KiB)

252

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

California California Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 117, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords AEO California EIA Renewable Energy Generation Western Electricity Coordinating Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / California (xls, 119.2 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

253

Federal Fuels Taxes and Tax Credits (released in AEO2007)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The AEO2007 reference case and alternative cases generally assume compliance with current laws and regulations affecting the energy sector. Some provisions of the U.S. Tax Code are scheduled to expire, or may be subject to adjustment, before the end of the projection period. In general, scheduled expirations and adjustments provided in legislation or regulations are assumed to occur, unless there is significant historical evidence to support an alternative assumption. This section examines the AEO2007 treatment of three provisions that could have significant impacts on U.S. energy markets: the gasoline excise tax, biofuel (ethanol and biodiesel) tax credits, and the PTC for electricity generation from certain renewable resources.

Information Center

2007-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

254

California's Move Toward E10 (released in AEO2009)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

In AEO2009, E10a gasoline blend containing 10 percent ethanolis assumed to be the maximum ethanol blend allowed in California RFG, as opposed to the 5.7-percent blend assumed in earlier AEOs. The 5.7-percent blend had reflected decisions made when California decided to phase out use of the additive methyl tertiary butyl ether in its RFG program in 2003, opting instead to use ethanol in the minimum amount that would meet the requirement for 2.0 percent oxygen content under the CAA provisions in effect at that time

Information Center

2009-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

255

A More Extensive Investigation of the Use of Ensemble Forecasts for Dispersion Model Evaluation  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble forecast is used as input to a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to study the effect that analysis errors in the numerical weather prediction assimilation cycle have on dispersion modeling. The wind and temperature fields from a ...

Anne Grete Straume

2001-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

256

Real-Time Forecasting of the Western Australian Summertime Trough: Evaluation of a New Regional Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The real-time prediction of the location, strength, and structure of the summertime heat trough is a major forecasting problem over Western Australia. Maximum temperatures, wind strength and direction along the west coast, low-level coastal cloud,...

Lance M. Leslie; Terry C. L. Skinner

1994-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

257

A Retrospective Evaluation of the Storm Surge Produced by Hurricane Gustav (2008): Forecast and Hindcast Results  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The evolution and convergence of modeled storm surge were examined using a high-resolution implementation of the Advanced Circulation Coastal Ocean and Storm Surge (ADCIRC) model for Hurricane Gustav (2008). The storm surge forecasts were forced ...

Cristina Forbes; Richard A. Luettich Jr.; Craig A. Mattocks; Joannes J. Westerink

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

258

Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL, and ECMWF Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecasts of southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20°S and 85°W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 are examined with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (...

Cécile Hannay; David L. Williamson; James J. Hack; Jeffrey T. Kiehl; Jerry G. Olson; Stephen A. Klein; Christopher S. Bretherton; Martin Köhler

2009-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

259

An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts from Global Numerical Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from global numerical models. While considerable research has investigated the skill of various models with respect to track and intensity, few studies have considered how well global models ...

Daniel J. Halperin; Henry E. Fuelberg; Robert E. Hart; Joshua H. Cossuth; Philip Sura; Richard J. Pasch

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

260

An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

2013-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


261

An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

While state-of-the-art models of the Earth’s climate system have improved tremendously over the last twenty years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. ...

Emma B. Suckling; Leonard A. Smith

262

2017 Levelized Costs AEO 2012 Early Release  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

1 1 July 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook Highlights * EIA projects the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price to average about $88 per barrel over the second half of 2012 and the U.S. refiner acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil to average $93 per barrel, both about $7 per barrel lower than last month's Outlook. EIA expects WTI and RAC crude oil prices to remain roughly at these second half levels in 2013. Beginning in this month's Outlook, EIA is also providing a forecast of Brent crude oil spot prices (see Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Added to Forecast), which are expected to average $106 per barrel for 2012 and $98 per barrel in 2013. These price forecasts assume that world oil-consumption-weighted real gross domestic product

263

Equitable Skill Scores for Categorical Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Many skill scores used to evaluate categorical forecasts of discrete variables are inequitable, in the sense that constant forecasts of some events lead to better scores than constant forecasts of other events. Inequitable skill scores may ...

Lev S. Gandin; Allan H. Murphy

1992-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

264

RACORO Forecasting  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Weather Briefings Observed Weather Cloud forecasting models BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated...

265

Evaluating the Performance of Planetary Boundary Layer and Cloud Microphysical Parameterization Schemes in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts using Synthetic GOES-13 Satellite Observations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this study, the ability of several cloud microphysical and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes to accurately simulate cloud characteristics within 4-km-grid-spacing ensemble forecasts over the contiguous U.S. was evaluated through ...

Rebecca Cintineo; Jason A. Otkin; Ming Xue; Fanyou Kong

266

An Evaluation and Intercomparison of Global Analyses from the National Meteorological Center and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In order to help establish a global climate record data sets of global analyses from the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been comprehensively evaluated.

Kevin E. Trenberth; Jerry G. Olson

1988-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

267

Economic Effects of High Oil Prices (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The AEO2006 projections of future energy market conditions reflect the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables that affect oil demand, in particular, and energy demand in general. The variables include real GDP growth, inflation, employment, exports and imports, and interest rates.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

268

Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We have shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts—a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average ...

Eugenia Kalnay; Amnon Dalcher

1987-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

269

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi

Paris-Sud XI, Université de

270

Forecast Combinations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this chapter we analyze theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the degree of correlation between forecast errors and the relative size of the individual models’ forecast error variances). Although the reasons for the success of simple combination schemes are poorly understood, we discuss several possibilities related to model misspecification, instability (non-stationarities) and estimation error in situations where thenumbersofmodelsislargerelativetothe available sample size. We discuss the role of combinations under asymmetric loss and consider combinations of point, interval and probability forecasts. Key words: Forecast combinations; pooling and trimming; shrinkage methods; model misspecification, diversification gains

Allan Timmermann; Jel Codes C

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

271

How Do You Like Your Weather?: Using Weather Forecast Data to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This document provides a quick overview of weather forecasts as a data issue in the development of electricity demand forecasts. These are three sections in this Brief: o reasons behind the rise in interest in using weather forecasts in electricity forecasting models, o an overview of what some utilities are doing to evaluate weather forecasts, and o a resource list of weather forecast providers.

2001-09-28T23:59:59.000Z

272

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Update Through 2005 (Update) (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

AEO2005 provided a summary of 17 State renewable energy programs in existence as of December 31, 2003, in 15 States.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

273

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Update Through 2007 (Update) (released in AEO2008)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

In recent years, the AEO has tracked the growing number of States that have adopted requirements or goals for renewable energy. While there is no Federal renewable generation mandate, the States have been adopting such standards for some time. AEO2005 provided a summary of all existing programs in effect at that time [29], and subsequent AEOs have examined new policies or changes to existing ones [30,31]. Since the publication of AEO2007, four States have enacted new RPS legislation, and five others have strengthened their existing RPS programs. In total, 25 States and the District of Columb

Information Center

2008-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

274

Light-Duty Vehicle Energy Consumption by Fuel Type from EIA AEO...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Linked Data Search Share this page on Facebook icon Twitter icon Light-Duty Vehicle Energy Consumption by Fuel Type from EIA AEO 2011 Early Release Dataset Summary...

275

Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models  

SciTech Connect

We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

2008-01-24T23:59:59.000Z

276

Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices in AEO (released in AEO2009)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the AEO2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

Information Center

2009-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

277

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Central Central Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 112, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords undefined Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation / Central- Reference Case (xls, 118.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035

278

AEO2011: Oil and Gas Supply | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Supply Supply Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 14, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts. The data is broken down into production, net imports, consumption by sector and price. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA gas oil Data Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL) Comment Rate this dataset Usefulness of the metadata Average vote Your vote Usefulness of the dataset Average vote Your vote

279

EIA - AEO2010 - State renewable energy requirements and goals: Update  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

State renewable energy requirements and goals: Update through 2009 State renewable energy requirements and goals: Update through 2009 Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 State renewable energy requirements and goals: Update through 2009 To the extent possible, AEO2010 incorporates the impacts of State laws requiring the addition of renewable generation or capacity by utilities doing business in the States. Currently, 30 States and the District of Columbia have enforceable RPS or similar laws (Table 2). Under such standards, each State determines its own levels of generation, eligible technologies, and noncompliance penalties. AEO2010 includes the impacts of all laws in effect as of September 2009 (with the exception of Hawaii, because NEMS provides electricity market projections for the continental United States only).

280

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Midwest Reliability  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

East East Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 75, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEIO EIA Electric Power projections Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Midwest Reliability Council / East - Reference Case (xls, 258.6 KiB) Quality Metrics

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


281

No Sunset and Extended Policies Cases (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The AEO2010 Reference case is best described as a current laws and regulations case, because it generally assumes that existing laws and fully promulgated regulations will remain unchanged throughout the projection period, unless the legislation establishing them specifically calls for them to end or change. The Reference case often serves as a starting point for the analysis of proposed legislative or regulatory changes, a task that would be difficult if the Reference case included projected legislative or regulatory changes.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

282

Valuing Climate Forecast Information  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The article describes research opportunities associated with evaluating the characteristics of climate forecasts in settings where sequential decisions are made. Illustrative results are provided for corn production in east central Illinois. ...

Steven T. Sonka; James W. Mjelde; Peter J. Lamb; Steven E. Hollinger; Bruce L. Dixon

1987-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

283

Forecasting overview  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is required in many situations: deciding whether to build another power generation plant in the next five years requires forecasts of future demand; scheduling staff in a call centre next week requires forecasts of call volume; stocking an inventory requires forecasts of stock requirements. Forecasts can be required several years in advance (for the case of capital investments), or only a few minutes beforehand (for telecommunication routing). Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. Some things are easier to forecast than others. The time of the sunrise tomorrow morning can be forecast very precisely. On the other hand, currency exchange rates are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy. The predictability of an event or a quantity depends on how well we understand the factors that contribute to it, and how much unexplained variability is involved. Forecasting situations vary widely in their time horizons, factors determining actual outcomes, types of data patterns, and many other aspects. Forecasting methods can be very simple such as using the most recent observation as a forecast (which is called the “naïve method”), or highly complex such as neural nets and econometric systems of simultaneous equations. The

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

284

AEO2012 has energy projections and analyses of legislation ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Tools; Glossary › All Reports ... weather; gasoline; capacity; nuclear; exports; forecast; View All Tags ...

285

Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

2011-09-13T23:59:59.000Z

286

An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts from Operational Models and Reanalyses Including Precipitation Variations Associated with MJO Activity  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper, the results of an examination of precipitation forecasts for 1–30-day leads from global models run at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) ...

John E. Janowiak; Peter Bauer; Wanqiu Wang; Phillip A. Arkin; Jon Gottschalck

2010-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

287

A customisable downscaling approach for local-scale meteorological and air pollution forecasting: Performance evaluation for a year of urban meteorological forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

In this paper we develop a customisable downscaling approach for local-scale air quality and meteorological forecasting applications, using The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) with the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). The CCAM-TAPM system allows ... Keywords: Air pollution modelling, Meteorological modelling, Verification studies

M. Thatcher; P. Hurley

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

288

Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This paper argues in favour of a closer link between decision and forecast evaluation problems. Although the idea of using decision theory for forecast evaluation appears early in the dynamic stochastic programming literature, and has continued...

Granger, Clive W J; Pesaran, M Hashem

2004-06-16T23:59:59.000Z

289

Federal Fuels Taxes and Tax Credits (Update) (released in AEO2008)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The AEO2008 reference case incorporates current regulations that pertain to the energy industry. This section describes the handling of Federal taxes and tax credits in AEO2008, focusing primarily on areas where regulations have changed or the handling of taxes or tax credits has been updated.

Information Center

2008-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

290

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: Summary of Provisions (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

ARRA, signed into law in mid-February 2009, provides significant new Federal funding, loan guarantees, and tax credits to stimulate investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy. The provisions of ARRA were incorporated initially as part of a revision to the AEO2009 Reference case that was released in April 2009, and they also are included in AEO2010.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

291

Light-Duty Vehicle Energy Consumption by Fuel Type from EIA AEO...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Light-Duty Vehicle Energy Consumption by Fuel Type from EIA AEO 2011 Early Release Supplemental Table 47 of EIA AEO 2011 Early Release
2011-02-23T16:04:28Z 2011-03-31T19:33:44Z...

292

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2008-Impacts of Updating the AEO2008 Reference  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Impacts of Updating the AEO2008 Reference Case Impacts of Updating the AEO2008 Reference Case Annual Energy Outlook 2008 with Projections to 2030 Impacts of Updating the AEO2008 Reference Case EIA's decision to update the AEO2008 early-release reference case was motivated by the enactment in December 2007 of EISA2007, which contains many provisions that will significantly influence future energy trends. The specific EISA2007 provisions modeled in AEO2008 include updates to the renewable fuel standard (RFS) and the corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard for new light-duty vehicles (LDVs); updated and new appliance energy efficiency standards for boilers, dehumidifiers, dish-washers, clothes washers, and commercial walk-in refrigerators and freezers; lighting energy efficiency standards; provisions to reduce energy consumption in Federal buildings; and efficiency standards for in-dustrial electric motors.

293

EPACT2005 Loan Guarantee Program (released in AEO2008)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Title XVII of EPACT2005 authorized DOE to issue loan guarantees for projects involving new or improved technologies to avoid, reduce, or sequester GHGs. The law specified that the amount of the guarantee would be up to 80 percent of a project's cost. EPACT2005 also specified that DOE must receive funds equal to the subsidy cost either through the Federal appropriations process or from the firm receiving the guarantee [24]. As discussed in AEO2007, this program, by lowering borrowing costs, can have a major impact on the economics of capital-intensive technologies.

Information Center

2008-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

294

World Oil Price Cases (released in AEO2005)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

World oil prices in AEO2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

Information Center

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

295

Distributed Generation in Buildings (released in AEO2005)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Currently, distributed generation provides a very small share of residential and commercial electricity requirements in the United States. The AEO2005 reference case projects a significant increase in electricity generation in the buildings sector, but distributed generation is expected to remain a small contributor to the sectors energy needs. Although the advent of higher energy prices or more rapid improvement in technology could increase the use of distributed generation relative to the reference case projection, the vast majority of electricity used in buildings is projected to continue to be purchased from the grid.

Information Center

2008-09-24T23:59:59.000Z

296

Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Questions remain regarding how the skill of operational probabilistic forecasts is most usefully evaluated or compared, even though probability forecasts have been a long-standing aim in meteorological forecasting. This paper explains the ...

Jochen Bröcker; Leonard A. Smith

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

297

The Information Needed to Evaluate the Worth of Uncertain Information, Predictions and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

To evaluate the worth of uncertain information one must obtain three types of evaluative information: 1) statistical measures of the uncertainty of the information and of its likely occurrence; 2) the decision rule (how the information is used) ...

Donald R. Davis; Soronadi Nnaji

1982-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

298

A Probabilistic Forecast Contest and the Difficulty in Assessing Short-Range Forecast Uncertainty  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Results are presented from a probability-based weather forecast contest. Rather than evaluating the absolute errors of nonprobabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts, as is common in other contests, this contest evaluated the skill of ...

Thomas M. Hamill; Daniel S. Wilks

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

299

EIA - AEO2010 - Liquid fuels taxes and tax credits  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Liquid fuels taxes and tax credits Liquid fuels taxes and tax credits Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 Liquid fuels taxes and tax credits This section provides a review of the treatment of Federal fuels taxes and tax credits in AEO2010. Excise taxes on highway fuel The treatment of Federal highway fuel taxes remains unchanged from the previous year’s AEO. Gasoline is taxed at 18.4 cents per gallon, diesel fuel at 24.4 cents per gallon, and jet fuel at 4.4 cents per gallon, consistent with current laws and regulations. Consistent with Federal budgeting procedures, which dictate that excise taxes dedicated to a trust fund, if expiring, are assumed to be extended at current rates, these taxes are maintained at their present levels, without adjustment for inflation, throughout the projection [9]. State fuel taxes are calculated on the basis of a volume-weighted average for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuels. The State fuel taxes were updated as of July 2009 [10] and are held constant in real terms over the projection period, consistent with historical experience.

300

AEO2013 Early Release Base Overnight Project Technological Total Overnight  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

AEO2013 Early Release AEO2013 Early Release Base Overnight Project Technological Total Overnight Variable Fixed Heatrate 6 nth-of-a- kind Online Size Lead time Cost in 2012 Contingency Optimism Cost in 2012 4 O&M 5 O&M in 2012 Heatrate Technology Year 1 (MW) (years) (2011 $/kW) Factor 2 Factor 3 (2011 $/kW) (2011 $/MWh) (2011$/kW) (Btu/kWh) (Btu/kWh) Scrubbed Coal New 7 2016 1300 4 2,694 1.07 1.00 2,883 4.39 30.64 8,800 8,740 Integrated Coal-Gasification Comb Cycle (IGCC) 7 2016 1200 4 3,475 1.07 1.00 3,718 7.09 50.49 8,700 7,450 Pulverized Coal with carbon sequestration 2017 650 4 4,662 1.07 1.03 5,138 4.37 65.31 12,000 9,316

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


301

Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society “ENSO forecast plume” during the 2002–11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts ...

Michael K. Tippett; Anthony G. Barnston; Shuhua Li

2012-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

302

Economic impact evaluation of short-term load forecast errors using a mutative scale chaos optimization algorithm  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Under the circumstances of Power Market, load forecast errors directly lead to the increase of costs of dispatch and maintenance. With a mutative scale chaos optimization algorithm (MSCOA), and the next-day units bidding model as the valuation model ... Keywords: MSCOA, load forecast error, power market

Jiang Chuanwen; Li Shuai; Wang Chengmin

2005-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

303

Management Earnings Forecasts and Value of Analyst Forecast Revisions  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies ’ finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to forecast revisions in the period immediately after (before) the prior-quarter earnings announcement is likely to be the artifact of a temporal pattern of management earnings forecasts over the event time. To the extent that management earnings forecasts are public disclosures, our results suggest that the relative importance of analysts ' information discovery role documented in prior studies is likely to be overstated.

Yongtae Kim; Minsup Song

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

304

The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part IV: The White Sands Missile Range Auto-Nowcast System  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

During the summer months at the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command’s (ATEC) White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), forecasting thunderstorm activity is one of the primary duties of the range forecasters. The safety of personnel working on the range ...

Thomas R. Saxen; Cynthia K. Mueller; Thomas T. Warner; Matthias Steiner; Edward E. Ellison; Eric W. Hatfield; Terri L. Betancourt; Susan M. Dettling; Niles A. Oien

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

305

Evaluation of a cloud scale lightning data assimilation technique and a 3DVAR method for the analysis and short-term forecast of the 29 June 2012 derecho event  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This work evaluates the short-term forecast (? 6-h) of the 29-30 June 2012 derecho event from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) ARW model when using two distinct data assimilation techniques at cloud resolving scales (3-km horizontal grid). ...

Alexandre O. Fierro; Jidong Gao; Conrad L. Ziegler; Edward R. Mansell; Donald R. Macgorman; Scott R. Dembek

306

Evaluation of COAMPS Forecasts of Coastal Stratus Using Satellite Microphysical Retrievals and Aircraft Measurements  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A field project was carried out offshore of central Oregon during August 1999 to evaluate mesoscale model simulations of coastal stratiform cloud layers. Procedures for mapping cloud physical parameters such as cloud optical depth, droplet ...

Melanie A. Wetzel; Steven K. Chai; Marcin J. Szumowski; William T. Thompson; Tracy Haack; Gabor Vali; Robert Kelly

2001-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

307

Evaluation of Tools Used for Monitoring and Forecasting Flash Floods in the United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This paper evaluates, for the first time, flash-flood guidance (FFG) values and recently developed gridded FFG (GFFG) used by the National Weather Service (NWS) to monitor and predict imminent flash flooding, which is the leading storm-related ...

Jonathan J. Gourley; Jessica M. Erlingis; Yang Hong; Ernest B. Wells

2012-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

308

Transportation Sector Energy Use by Fuel Type Within a Mode from EIA AEO  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Sector Energy Use by Fuel Type Within a Mode from EIA AEO Sector Energy Use by Fuel Type Within a Mode from EIA AEO 2011 Early Release Dataset Summary Description Supplemental Table 46 of EIA AEO 2011 Early Release Source EIA Date Released December 08th, 2010 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords AEO Annual Energy Outlook EIA Energy Information Administration Fuel mode TEF transportation Transportation Energy Futures Data text/csv icon Transportation_Sector_Energy_Use_by_Fuel_Type_Within_a_Mode.csv (csv, 144.3 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Some Review Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL) Comment Rate this dataset Usefulness of the metadata Average vote Your vote Usefulness of the dataset Average vote Your vote

309

EIA - AEO2013 Early Release Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

In AEO2013, the 2030 values have fallen to 5,523 million metric tons for total energy-related CO 2 emissions, with 1,874 million metric tons (34 percent) ...

310

AEO2011: Coal Production by Region and Type This dataset comes...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

by Region and Type This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 140,...

311

AEO2012 considers three cases for the future of world oil prices ...  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

... coal-to-liquids, biomass-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, extra-heavy oils, and oil shale. Download CSV Data. The Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) ...

312

Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Summary of Provisions (released in AEO2008)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 was signed into law on December 19, 2007, and became Public Law 110-140 [8]. Provisions in EISA2007 that require funding appropriations to be implemented, whose impact is highly uncertain, or that require further specification by Federal agencies or Congress are not included in AEO2008. For example, EIA does not try to anticipate policy responses to the many studies required by EISA2007, nor to predict the impact of research and development (R&D) funding authorizations included in the bill. Moreover, AEO2008 does not include any provision that addresses a level of detail beyond that modeled in NEMS, which was used to develop the AEO2008 projections. AEO2008 addresses only those provisions in EISA2007 that establish specific tax credits, incentives, or standards, including the following:

Information Center

2008-06-26T23:59:59.000Z

313

EIA - Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2013 Data Tables  

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analysis of energy topics, financial analysis, ... Annual Energy Outlook 2013. Release Dates: April 15 - May 2, 2013 ...

314

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

underestimate natural gas prices. The trends changed afterestimate natural gas prices. These trends suggest that

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

315

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-priceadvanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $2.3/MMBtu NYMEX

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

316

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Natural Gas Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .> History of Natural Gas Regulation The natural gas marketto oversee the regulation of natural gas sales by regulating

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

317

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

History of Natural Gas Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .pdf/table13.pdf> History of Natural Gas Regulation The

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

318

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

coal supply. The natural gas supply covers six categories:renewables, oil supply, natural gas supply, natural gasnation-wide natural gas market, equalizing supply with

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

319

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

2003). Balancing Natural Gas Policy - Fueling the Demands ofThis lead to the Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA) in 1978 whichnatural gas markets, demand-side management programs, development of renewable sources, and environmental policies. ”

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

320

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresNatural Gas Futures Prices Figure 1 focuses on the historythe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futures

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


321

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresthe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futuresnatural gas prices. Figure 1 shows the daily price history

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

322

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresthe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futuresNatural Gas Futures Prices F igure 1 focuses on the history

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

323

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresNatural Gas Futures Prices F igure 1 focuses on the historynatural gas prices. Figure 1 shows the daily price history

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

324

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Daily price history of 1st-nearby NYMEX natural gas futuresthe daily history of the average 5-year natural gas futuresnatural gas prices. Figure 1 shows the daily price history

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

325

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 1.1 History of Natural Gaspdf/table13.pdf> History of Natural Gas Regulation TheUnderstanding the history of the natural gas market helps to

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

326

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

renewables can provide price certainty over longer terms. In6 This additiona l level of price discovery in longer-datedreplicate the long-term price stability that renewables can

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

327

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

328

Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

329

Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

typical of an advanced combined cycle gas turbine), the $comparison between a combined cycle gas turbine and a fixed-

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2006-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

330

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

trading: swing contracts, baseload contracts, and firmthe buyer is unreliable. Baseload contracts are much like

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

331

Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

is on the rise, natural gas demand is expected to grow 2.4%has resulted in higher natural gas demand and volatility andelectricity and natural gas markets, demand-side management

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

332

Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

need to consider coal and other fuel prices. This work wascoal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark

2008-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

333

Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. This workcoal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

334

Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally,coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price

Bolinger, Mark A.

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

335

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Solarbudget at the foundation of satellite based forecastingWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 7.1 Global

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

336

Workshop on Biofuels Projections in AEO Attendance List  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Attendance List 1 Attendance List 1 March 2013 Workshop on Biofuels Projections in AEO Attendee list In person attendees Mia Adelberg Abengoa Bioenergy Michael Bredehoeft EIA Tom Capehart USDA Terry Carter Biofuels Center of North Carolina Adam Christensen Johns Hopkins University Michael Cole EIA John Conti EIA Lauren Cooper Center for Climate and Energy Solutions Mindi Farber-DeAnda EIA Denise Gerber Fiberight Steve Gerber Fiberight Ryan Graf Policy Navigation Group David L. Greene Oak Ridge National Laboratory Peter Gross EIA Howard Gruenspecht EIA Marilyn Herman Herman & Associates Robert Hershey Robert L. Hershey, P.E. Sean Hill EIA David Hitchcock Virent, Inc. Rob Johansson USDA Sandra Jones CITGO Petroleum Corp Kendell W. Keith TRC Consulting, Ltd.

337

EIA - AEO2010 - No Sunset and Extended Policies cases  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

No Sunset and Extended Policies cases No Sunset and Extended Policies cases Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 No Sunset and Extended Policies cases Background The AEO2010 Reference case is best described as a “current laws and regulations” case, because it generally assumes that existing laws and fully promulgated regulations will remain unchanged throughout the projection period, unless the legislation establishing them specifically calls for them to end or change. The Reference case often serves as a starting point for the analysis of proposed legislative or regulatory changes, a task that would be difficult if the Reference case included “projected” legislative or regulatory changes. As might be expected, it is sometimes difficult to draw a line between what should be included or excluded from the Reference case. Areas of particular uncertainty include:

338

Alaskan Natural Gas Pipeline Developments (released in AEO2007)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The AEO2007 reference case projects that an Alaska natural gas pipeline will go into operation in 2018, based on EIAs current understanding of the projects time line and economics. There is continuing debate, however, about the physical configuration and the ownership of the pipeline. In addition, the issue of Alaskas oil and natural gas production taxes has been raised, in the context of a current market environment characterized by rising construction costs and falling natural gas prices. If rates of return on investment by producers are reduced to unacceptable levels, or if the project faces significant delays, other sources of natural gas, such as unconventional natural gas production and LNG imports, could fulfill the demand that otherwise would be served by an Alaska pipeline.

Information Center

2007-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

339

Federal Air Emissions Regulations (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

In 2005, the EPA finalized two regulations, CAIR and CAMR, that would reduce emissions from coal-fired power plants in the United States. Both CAIR and CAMR are included in the AEO2006 reference case. The EPA has received 11 petitions for reconsideration of CAIR and has provided an opportunity for public comment on reconsidering certain aspects of CAIR. Public comments were accepted until January 13, 2006. The EPA has also received 14 petitions for reconsideration of CAMR and is willing to reconsider certain aspects of the rule. Public comments were accepted for 45 days after publication of the reconsideration notice in the Federal Register. Several States and organizations have filed lawsuits against CAMR. The ultimate decision of the courts will have a significant impact on the implementation of CAMR.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

340

Mercury Emissions Control Technologies (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The AEO2006 reference case assumes that States will comply with the requirements of the EPAs new CAMR regulation. CAMR is a two-phase program, with a Phase I cap of 38 tons of mercury emitted from all U.S. power plants in 2010 and a Phase II cap of 15 tons in 2018. Mercury emissions in the electricity generation sector in 2003 are estimated at around 50 tons. Generators have a variety of options to meet the mercury limits, such as: switching to coal with a lower mercury content, relying on flue gas desulfurization or selective catalytic reduction equipment to reduce mercury emissions, or installing conventional activated carbon injection (ACI) technology.

Information Center

2006-03-20T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


341

RAINSAT. A One Year Evaluation of a Bispectral Method for the Analysis and Short-Range Forecasting of Precipitation Areas  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

RAINSAT uses under data to calibrate GOES visible and infra data in terms of probability of rain. It produces probability of rain maps and 3 h forecast probability of rain maps by extrapolation.

Patrick King; Tsoi-Ching Yip; J. David Steenbergen

1989-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

342

Development and Evaluation of a Coupled Photosynthesis-Based Gas Exchange Evapotranspiration Model (GEM) for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Applications  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Current land surface schemes used for mesoscale weather forecast models use the Jarvis-type stomatal resistance formulations for representing the vegetation transpiration processes. The Jarvis scheme, however, despite its robustness, needs ...

Dev Niyogi; Kiran Alapaty; Sethu Raman; Fei Chen

2009-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

343

Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Predictions of Turbulent Flow Parameters in a Dry Convective Boundary Layer  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model predictions using different boundary layer schemes and horizontal grid spacings were compared with observational and numerical large-eddy simulation data for conditions corresponding to a dry ...

Jeremy A. Gibbs; Evgeni Fedorovich; Alexander M. J. van Eijk

2011-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

344

Evaluation of WRF Model Output for Severe Weather Forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study assesses forecasts of the preconvective and near-storm environments from the convection-allowing models run for the 2008 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) spring experiment. ...

Michael C. Coniglio; Kimberly L. Elmore; John S. Kain; Steven J. Weiss; Ming Xue; Morris L. Weisman

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

345

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

NFI Forecasts Methodology NFI Forecasts Methodology Overview Issued by: National Forest Inventory.brewer@forestry.gsi.gov.uk Website: www.forestry.gov.uk/inventory 1 NFI Softwood Forecasts Methodology Overview #12;NFI Forecasts ........................................................................................................4 Rationale behind the new approach to the GB Private sector production forecast ........4 Volume

346

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub

347

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia. From October 2013 new and improved 7 day forecasts will be introduced for Brisbane, Gold Coast

Greenslade, Diana

348

Implications of Ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Errors on Distributed Streamflow Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluating the propagation of errors associated with ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) into the ensemble streamflow response is important to reduce uncertainty in operational flow forecasting. In this paper, a multifractal ...

Giuseppe Mascaro; Enrique R. Vivoni; Roberto Deidda

2010-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

349

Another Approach to Forecasting Forecast Skill  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The skill of a medium-range numerical forecast can fluctuate widely from day to day. Providing an a priori estimate of the skill of the forecast is therefore important. Existing approaches include Monte Carlo Forecasting and Lagged Average ...

W. Y. Chen

1989-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

350

Value of Wind Power Forecasting  

DOE Green Energy (OSTI)

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

351

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8 8 Table 3. Gross Domestic Product, Actual vs. Forecasts (Nominal $Billions) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO82 3,939 4,306 4,733 5,201 5,712 6,288 AEO83 3,919 4,264 4,650 5,086 5,549 6,053 9,362 AEO84 3,910 4,191 4,589 5,031 5,490 5,979 9,098 AEO85 3,882 4,103 4,436 4,793 5,207 5,658 6,158 6,702 7,252 7,836 8,486 AEO86 4,203 4,434 4,741 5,015 5,371 5,795 6,244 6,726 7,270 7,875 8,524 9,226 9,973 10,764 11,600 AEO87 4,483 4,701 5,035 5,389 5,773 6,190 6,666 7,175 7,716 11,223 AEO89* 4,857 5,182 5,575 6,013 6,483 6,987 7,525 8,106 8,756 9,400 10,103 10,863 11,632 AEO90 5,236 5,550 7,882 11,329 16,111 AEO91 5,457 5,695 6,078 6,399 6,738 7,145 7,607 8,099

352

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Annual Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections March 2012 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2011 and Prior Reference Case Projections i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department of Energy or

353

Optimal Updating of Forecasts for the Timing of Future Events  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A major problem in forecasting is estimating the time of some future event. traditionally, forecasts are designed to minimize an error cost function that is evaluated once, possibly when the event occurs and forecast accuracy can be determined. However, ... Keywords: Air Transportation, Dynamic Programming Applications, Forecasting

Juhwen Hwang; Medini R. Singh; W. J. Hurley; Robert A. Shumsky

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

354

Evaluation of Surface Analyses and Forecasts with a Multiscale Ensemble Kalman Filter in Regions of Complex Terrain  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Previous research suggests that an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation and modeling system can produce accurate atmospheric analyses and forecasts at 30–50-km grid spacing. This study examines the ability of a mesoscale EnKF system ...

Brian C. Ancell; Clifford F. Mass; Gregory J. Hakim

2011-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

355

Evaluation of MM5 and Eta-10 Precipitation Forecasts over the Pacific Northwest during the Cool Season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Precipitation forecasts from the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and NCEP’s 10-km resolution Eta Model (Eta-10) are verified over the Pacific Northwest in order to show the effects of ...

Brian A. Colle; Kenneth J. Westrick; Clifford F. Mass

1999-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

356

Evaluation of a Dynamical Basis for Advance Forecasting of the Date of Onset of Monsoon Rainfall over India  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The onset of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) represents one of the most dramatic transitions in the regional circulation pattern. The onset also marks the beginning of the main rainy season for India; advanced and accurate forecast of the date of ...

P. Goswami; K. C. Gouda

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

357

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 ..............................................................................3 Residential Forecast Comparison ..............................................................................................5 Nonresidential Forecast Comparisons

358

File:AEO2012earlyrelease.pdf | Open Energy Information  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

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359

Forecast Prices  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon

360

The Forecast Gap: Linking Forwards and Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report addresses a common problem in price forecasting: What to do when confronted with a persistent gap between results obtained from a structural forecast model and actual forward or spot prices? The report examines examples taken from natural gas and electric power forecasts and presents a novel approach to closing this “forecast gap.” Inspection reveals that the ratio of actual prices to forecast prices often exhibits stochastic movements that resemble those of commodity price movements. By usin...

2008-12-15T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


361

AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - East South Central  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

South Central South Central Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 26, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power, and total by fuel. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO carbon dioxide emissions East South Central EIA Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - East South Central- Reference Case (xls, 74.3 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

362

AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - United States |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

United States United States Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 30, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power, and total by fuel. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO carbon dioxide emissions EIA United States Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - United States- Reference Case (xls, 75.1 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

363

AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source- Middle Atlantic |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Source- Middle Atlantic Source- Middle Atlantic Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 22, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power, and total by fuel. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords AEO carbon dioxide emissions middle atlantic Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source- Middle Atlantic- Reference Case (xls, 74.4 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

364

AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - South Atlantic | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

South Atlantic South Atlantic Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 5, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion btu. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power and total energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Consumption sector South Atlantic Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - South Atlantic- Reference Case (xls, 297.6 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

365

AEO2011: Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use Sector and Census Division |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Consumption by End-Use Sector and Census Division Consumption by End-Use Sector and Census Division Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 136, and contains only the reference case. This dataset is in trillion cubic feet. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, electric power and transportation. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Natural gas consumption Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use Sector and Census Division- Reference Case (xls, 138.4 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

366

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Southwest Power Pool / South  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

South South Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 115, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords AEO EIA Renewable Energy Generation South Southwest Power Pool Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Southwest Power Pool / South- Reference Case (xls, 118.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

367

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Southwest Power Pool / North  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

North North Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 114, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA North Renewable Energy Generation Southwest Power Pool Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Southwest Power Pool / North- Reference Case (xls, 118.8 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

368

AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - South Atlantic |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

South Atlantic South Atlantic Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 25, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power, and total by fuel. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO carbon dioxide emissions EIA South Atlantic Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - South Atlantic- Reference Case (xls, 74.5 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

369

AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - East North Central  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

North Central North Central Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 23, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power, and total by fuel. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords AEO carbon dioxide emissions East North Central Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - East North Central- Reference Case (xls, 74.5 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

370

AEO2011: Lower 48 Natural Gas Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Natural Gas Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Natural Gas Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 133, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into Production, lower 48 onshore and lower 48 offshore. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Natural Gas Wellhead prices Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Lower 48 Natural Gas Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region- Reference Case (xls, 59.1 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License

371

AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - Mountain | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Mountain Mountain Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 8, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion btu. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power and total energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Consumption mountain region Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - Mountain- Reference Case (xls, 297.4 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035

372

AEO2011: World Metallurgical Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Metallurgical Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting Metallurgical Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting Countries Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 143, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million short tons. The data is broken down into Metallurgical coal exports to Europe, Asia and America. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO coal EIA Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: World Metallurgical Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting Countries- Reference Case (xls, 103.8 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

373

AEO2011: Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 1, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion BTUs, and quantifies the energy prices using U.S. dollars. The data is broken down into total production, imports, exports, consumption, and prices for energy types. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO consumption EIA export import production reference case total energy Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary - Reference Case (xls, 112.8 KiB) Quality Metrics

374

AEO2011: Coal Minemouth Prices by Region and Type | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Minemouth Prices by Region and Type Minemouth Prices by Region and Type Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 141, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million short tons and the US Dollar. The data is broken down into northern Appalachia, central Appalachia, southern Appalachia, eastern interior, western interior, Gulf, Dakota medium, western Montana, Wyoming, Rocky Mountain, Arizona/New Mexico and Washington/Alaska. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO Coal Minemouth Prices EIA Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Coal Minemouth Prices by Region and Type- Reference Case (xls, 121.6 KiB)

375

EIA - AEO2010 - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: Summary of  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: Summary of provisions American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: Summary of provisions Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: Summary of provisions ARRA, signed into law in mid-February 2009, provides significant new Federal funding, loan guarantees, and tax credits to stimulate investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy. The provisions of ARRA were incorporated initially as part of a revision to the AEO2009 Reference case that was released in April 2009 [5], and they also are included in AEO2010. However, provisions that require funding appropriations to be implemented, whose impact is highly uncertain, or that require further specification by Federal agencies or Congress, are not included. Moreover, AEO2010 does not include any provision that addresses a level of detail beyond that modeled in NEMS.

376

AEO2011: Coal Production and Minemouth Prices by Region | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

and Minemouth Prices by Region and Minemouth Prices by Region Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 139, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million short tons and the US Dollar. The data is broken down into production and minemouth prices. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO Coal Production EIA Minemouth Prices Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Coal Production and Minemouth Prices by Region- Reference Case (xls, 41.5 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL)

377

AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source, New England |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Source, New England Source, New England Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 21, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power, and total by fuel. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords AEO carbon dioxide emissions New England Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source, New England- Reference Case (xls, 73.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

378

AEO2011: Natural Gas Delivered Prices by End-Use Sector and Census Division  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Delivered Prices by End-Use Sector and Census Division Delivered Prices by End-Use Sector and Census Division Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 137, and contains only the reference case. This dataset is in trillion cubic feet. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, electric power and transportation. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Natural Gas Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Natural Gas Delivered Prices by End-Use Sector and Census Division- Reference Case (xls, 140.7 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

379

AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - Pacific | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Pacific Pacific Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Electric Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This data reflects Table 9, and contains only the reference case. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Consumption Pacific Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - Pacific- Reference Case (xls, 297.5 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL) Comment Rate this dataset Usefulness of the metadata Average vote Your vote Usefulness of the dataset

380

AEO2011: Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 132, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into Production, lower 48 onshore and lower 48 offshore. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO crude oil EIA prices Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Lower 48 Crude Oil Production and Wellhead Prices by Supply Region- Reference Case (xls, 54.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL)

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


381

AEO2011: Oil and Gas End-of-Year Reserves and Annual Reserve Additions |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

End-of-Year Reserves and Annual Reserve Additions End-of-Year Reserves and Annual Reserve Additions Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 134, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into Crude oil, dry natural gas. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA end-of-year reserves gas oil Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Oil and Gas End-of-Year Reserves and Annual Reserve Additions- Reference Case (xls, 58.4 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL)

382

AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - New England | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

New England New England Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 1, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion btu. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power and total energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Consumption New England Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - New England- Reference Case (xls, 297.3 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035

383

AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - West South Central |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

South Central South Central Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 7, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion btu. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power and total energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Consumption West South Central Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - West South Central- Reference Case (xls, 297.7 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

384

AEO2011:Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 1, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion Btu and the U.S. Dollar. The data is broken down into production, imports, exports, consumption and price. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO consumption disposition energy exports imports Supply Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011:Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary- Reference Case (xls, 112.8 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

385

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Southwest Power Pool /  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

South South Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 90, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power projections South Southwest Power Pool Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Southwest Power Pool / South- Reference Case (xls, 259 KiB)

386

AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - Middle Atlantic | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Middle Atlantic Middle Atlantic Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 2, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion btu. The energy consumption data is broken down by sector (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power) as well as source, and also provides total energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA middle atlantic Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - Middle Atlantic- Reference Case (xls, 297.6 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment

387

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Texas Regional Entity  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Texas Regional Entity Texas Regional Entity Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 73, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power projections Texas Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Texas Regional Entity - Reference Case (xls, 259.4 KiB)

388

AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - West North Central  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

North Central North Central Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 24, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power, and total by fuel. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO carbon dioxide emissions EIA west north central Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - West North Central- Reference Case (xls, 74.3 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

389

AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - West South Central  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

South Central South Central Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 27, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power, and total by fuel. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO carbon dioxide emissions EIA West South Central Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - West South Central- Reference Case (xls, 74.6 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

390

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - United States | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

United States United States Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 120, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts, billion kilowatthours and quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into generating capacity, electricity generation and energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Renewable Energy Generation United States Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - United States- Reference Case (xls, 119.5 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

391

AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - Mountain | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Mountain Mountain Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 28, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power, and total by fuel. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO carbon dioxide emissions EIA Mountain Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - Mountain- Reference Case (xls, 74.4 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

392

AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - East South Central |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

South Central South Central Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 6, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion btu. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power and total energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO Commercial East South Central EIA Electric Power Energy Consumption Industrial Residential transportation Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - East South Central- Reference Case (xls, 297.5 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

393

AEO2011: World Total Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Total Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting Total Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting Countries Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 144, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million short tons. The data is broken down into total coal exports to Europe, Asia and America. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO coal EIA Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: World Total Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting Countries - Reference Case (xls, 104 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035

394

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Southwest Power Pool /  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

North North Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 89, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power Southwest Power Pool Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Southwest Power Pool / North- Reference Case (xls, 258.6 KiB)

395

EIA - AEO2013 Early Release Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions do not return to their 2005 level (5,997 million metric tons) by the end of the AEO2013 projection period.6 Growth in demand for transportation fuels is moderated by rising fuel prices and new, stricter federal CAFE standards for model years 2017 to 2025, which reduce transportation emissions from 2018 until they begin to rise near the end of the projection period. Transportation emissions in 2040 are 26 million metric tons below the 2011 level. Largely as a result of the inclusion of the new CAFE standards in AEO2013, transportation-related CO2 emissions in 2035 are 94 million metric tons below their level in the AEO2012 Reference case. State RPS requirements and abundant low-cost natural gas help shift the

396

www.eia.gov Key results from the AEO2013 Reference case:  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

• Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth • Crude oil production, particularly from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade • Natural gas production is higher throughout the Reference case projection than it was in AEO2012, serving the industrial and power sectors and an expanding export market • Motor gasoline consumption reflects the introduction of more stringent fuel economy standards, while diesel fuel consumption is moderated by increased natural gas use in heavy-duty vehicles • The U.S. becomes a larger exporter of natural gas and coal than was projected in the AEO2012 Reference case • All renewable fuels grow, but biomass and biofuels growth is slower than in AEO2012 • U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain more than five percent below their 2005 level through 2040, reflecting increased efficiency and the shift to a less carbon-intensive fuel mix

Adam Sieminski Administrator; Adam Sieminski; Adam Sieminski

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

397

Changing Trends in the Bulk Chemicals and Pulp and Paper Industries (released in AEO2005)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Compared with the experience of the 1990s, rising energy prices in recent years have led to questions about expectations of growth in industrial output, particularly in energy-intensive industries. Given the higher price trends, a review of expected growth trends in selected industries was undertaken as part of the production of AEO2005. In addition, projections for the industrial value of shipments, which were based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system in AEO2004, are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) in AEO2005. The change in industrial classification leads to lower historical growth rates for many industrial sectors. The impacts of these two changes are highlighted in this section for two of the largest energy-consuming industries in the U.S. industrial sectorbulk chemicals and pulp and paper.

Information Center

2005-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

398

AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - West North Central |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

North Central North Central Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 4, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion btu. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power and total energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Consumption Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - West North Central- Reference Case (xls, 297.4 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035

399

AEO2011: Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Prices | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices Supply, Disposition, and Prices Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 13, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses gigawatts. The data is broken down into production, net imports, consumption by sector and price. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO disposition EIA natural gas supply prices Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Prices - Reference Case (xls, 91.8 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL)

400

AEO2011: World Steam Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Steam Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting Steam Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting Countries Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 142, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million short tons. The data is broken down into steam coal exports to Europe, Asia and America. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO Coal flows countries EIA exporting importing Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: World Steam Coal Flows By Importing Regions and Exporting Countries- Reference Case (xls, 103.7 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


401

AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - Pacific | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Pacific Pacific Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 29, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power, and total by fuel. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO carbon dioxide emissions EIA Pacific Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - Pacific- Reference Case (xls, 74.2 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

402

AEO2011: Primary Natural Gas Flows Entering NGTDM Region from Neighboring  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Primary Natural Gas Flows Entering NGTDM Region from Neighboring Primary Natural Gas Flows Entering NGTDM Region from Neighboring Regions Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 138, and contains only the reference case. This dataset is in billion cubic feet per year. The data is broken down into New England, Middle Atlantic, East North Central, West Central, South Atlantic, East South Central, West South Central, Mountain, Pacific, Florida, Arizona/New Mexico, California. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIS Natural Gas Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Primary Natural Gas Flows Entering NGTDM Region from Neighboring Regions- Reference Case (xls, 60 KiB)

403

AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - United States | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

United States United States Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 10, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion btu. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power and total energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Energy Consumption United States Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - United States- Reference Case (xls, 298.4 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually

404

AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - United States | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

United States United States Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 95, and contains only the reference case. The data is broken down into electric power sector, cumulative planned additions,cumulative unplanned additions,cumulative retirements, end-use sector, electricity sales, net energy for load, generation by fuel type and price by service category. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Electric Power projections United States Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - United States- Reference Case (xls, 260.9 KiB) Quality Metrics

405

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

6 6 Table 11. Natural Gas Net Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts (trillion cubic feet) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 AEO 1983 1.08 1.16 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 AEO 1984 0.99 1.05 1.16 1.27 1.43 1.57 2.11 AEO 1985 0.94 1.00 1.19 1.45 1.58 1.86 1.94 2.06 2.17 2.32 2.44 AEO 1986 0.74 0.88 0.62 1.03 1.05 1.27 1.39 1.47 1.66 1.79 1.96 2.17 2.38 2.42 2.43 AEO 1987 0.84 0.89 1.07 1.16 1.26 1.36 1.46 1.65 1.75 2.50 AEO 1989* 1.15 1.32 1.44 1.52 1.61 1.70 1.79 1.87 1.98 2.06 2.15 2.23 2.31 AEO 1990 1.26 1.43 2.07 2.68 2.95 AEO 1991 1.36 1.53 1.70 1.82 2.11 2.30 2.33 2.36 2.42 2.49 2.56 2.70 2.75 2.83 2.90 2.95 AEO 1992 1.48 1.62 1.88 2.08 2.25 2.41 2.56 2.68 2.70 2.72 2.76 2.84 2.92 3.05 3.10 AEO 1993 1.79 2.08 2.35 2.49 2.61 2.74 2.89 2.95 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.17 3.29 3.42 AEO 1994 2.02 2.40 2.66 2.74

406

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Table 19. Energy Intensity, Actual vs. Forecasts (quadrillion Btu / $Billion Nominal GDP) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 20.1 18.5 16.9 15.5 14.4 13.2 AEO 1983 19.9 18.6 17.4 16.2 15.1 14.0 9.6 AEO 1984 20.1 18.9 17.7 16.5 15.5 14.5 10.3 AEO 1985 20.0 19.1 18.0 16.9 15.9 14.7 13.7 12.7 11.8 11.1 10.3 AEO 1986 18.3 17.8 16.8 16.1 15.2 14.3 13.5 12.6 11.8 11.0 10.3 9.6 8.8 8.2 7.7 AEO 1987 17.6 17.0 16.3 15.4 14.5 13.8 13.0 12.2 11.5 8.2 AEO 1989* 16.9 16.2 15.2 14.2 13.3 12.5 11.7 11.0 10.4 9.7 9.0 8.4 8.0 AEO 1990 16.1 15.4 11.7 8.6 6.4 AEO 1991 15.5 14.9 14.2 13.6 13.0 12.5 11.9 11.3 10.8 10.3 9.7 9.2 8.7 8.3 7.9 7.4 AEO 1992 15.0 14.5 13.9 13.3 12.7 12.1 11.6 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.6 8.1 7.7 AEO 1993 14.7 13.9 13.4 12.8 12.3 11.8 11.2 10.7 10.2 9.6 9.2 8.7 8.3 7.8 AEO 1994 14.1 13.5 13.1 12.6 12.1 11.6 11.1 10.6

407

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Update through 2009 (Update) (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

To the extent possible, AEO2010 incorporates the impacts of State laws requiring the addition of renewable generation or capacity by utilities doing business in the States. Currently, 30 States and the District of Columbia have enforceable RPS or similar laws). Under such standards, each State determines its own levels of generation, eligible technologies, and noncompliance penalties. AEO2010 includes the impacts of all laws in effect as of September 2009 (with the exception of Hawaii, because NEMS provides electricity market projections for the continental United States only).

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

408

Forecasting in Meteorology  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Public weather forecasting heralded the beginning of modern meteorology less than 150 years ago. Since then, meteorology has been largely a forecasting discipline. Thus, forecasting could have easily been used to test and develop hypotheses, ...

C. S. Ramage

1993-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

409

The Role of Vortex and Environment Errors in Genesis Forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010)  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) forecasts initialized from a cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) system is used to evaluate the sensitivity of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl’s (2010) genesis forecasts to vortex and ...

Ryan D. Torn; David Cook

2013-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

410

Verification of Convection-Allowing WRF Model Forecasts of the Planetary Boundary Layer Using Sounding Observations  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study evaluates forecasts of thermodynamic variables from five convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with the Advanced Research core (WRF-ARW). The forecasts vary only in their planetary ...

Michael C. Coniglio; James Correia Jr.; Patrick T. Marsh; Fanyou Kong

2013-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

411

Dynamical Downscaling of Austral Summer Climate Forecasts over Southern Africa Using a Regional Coupled Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The prediction skill of dynamical downscaling is evaluated for climate forecasts over southern Africa using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. As a case study, forecasts for the December–February (DJF) season of ...

J. V. Ratnam; S. K. Behera; S. B. Ratna; C. J. de W. Rautenbach; C. Lennard; J.-J. Luo; Y. Masumoto; K. Takahashi; T. Yamagata

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

412

The Value of Air Quality Forecasting in the Mid-Atlantic Region  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Air quality forecasts produced by the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC), human air quality forecasters, and persistence are evaluated for predictive skill and economic value when used to inform decisions regarding pollutant emission ...

Gregory G. Garner; Anne M. Thompson

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

413

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 Table 5. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts (million barrels per day) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 18.00 17.89 17.55 17.24 16.98 16.99 AEO 1983 15.82 16.13 16.37 16.50 16.56 16.63 17.37 AEO 1984 15.77 15.76 16.01 16.27 16.48 16.74 18.00 AEO 1985 15.72 15.74 15.97 16.01 16.06 16.08 16.18 16.23 16.32 16.36 16.53 AEO 1986 16.07 16.29 16.05 16.07 16.15 16.31 16.37 16.42 16.44 16.46 16.50 16.64 16.80 17.21 17.38 AEO 1987 16.52 16.66 16.96 17.06 17.29 17.56 17.73 17.76 17.72 18.30 AEO 1989* 17.01 17.20 17.44 17.57 17.72 17.76 17.78 17.82 18.05 18.12 18.19 18.40 18.61 AEO 1990

414

Transportation Energy Use by Mode from EIA AEO 2011 Early Release...  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

AEO 2011 Early Release
2011-02-15T17:11:53Z 2011-06-03T20:30:54Z http:eia.govforecastsaeoexcelaeotab7.xls I accessed this dataset from a public site. Annually To...

415

Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008: Summary of Provisions (released in AEO2009)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (Public Law 110-343), which was signed into law on October 3, 2008, incorporates EIEA2008 in Division B. Provisions in EIEA2008 that require funding appropriations to be implemented, whose impact is highly uncertain or that require further specification by Federal agencies or Congress, are not included in AEO2009.

Information Center

2009-03-31T23:59:59.000Z

416

Architect Of Severe Storm Forecasting: Colonel Robert C. Miller  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The career of severe storm forecaster and teacher Colonel Robert Miller (1920–98) is historicallyreviewed and evaluated. His pathway to the position of recognized authority in severe storm forecasting is examined in light of his early education ...

John M. Lewis; Robert A. Maddox; Charlie A. Crisp

2006-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

417

Neighborhood Verification: A Strategy for Rewarding Close Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

High-resolution forecasts may be quite useful even when they do not match the observations exactly. Neighborhood verification is a strategy for evaluating the “closeness” of the forecast to the observations within space–time neighborhoods rather ...

Elizabeth E. Ebert

2009-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

418

Some Remarks on the Reliability of Categorical Probability Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Studies on forecast evaluation often rely on estimating limiting observed frequencies conditioned on specific forecast probabilities (the reliability diagram or calibration function). Obviously, statistical estimates of the calibration function ...

Jochen Bröcker

2008-11-01T23:59:59.000Z

419

Making Forecasts Meaningful: Explanations of Problematic Predictions in Northeast Brazil  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study illustrates the need to consider the multiple interpretations and experiences that influence how climate forecasts are evaluated in local contexts when assessing how useful forecasts can be for increasing the resilience of rural ...

Karen Pennesi

2011-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

420

How Essential is Hydrologic Model Calibration to Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting?  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Hydrologic model calibration is usually a central element of streamflow forecasting based on the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method. Evaluation measures of forecast errors such as root-mean-square error (RMSE) are heavily influenced by ...

Xiaogang Shi; Andrew W. Wood; Dennis P. Lettenmaier

2008-12-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


421

Interpretation of Rank Histograms for Verifying Ensemble Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Rank histograms are a tool for evaluating ensemble forecasts. They are useful for determining the reliability of ensemble forecasts and for diagnosing errors in its mean and spread. Rank histograms are generated by repeatedly tallying the rank of ...

Thomas M. Hamill

2001-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

422

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction................................................................................................................................. 3 Price Forecasts............................................................................................................................... 12 Oil Price Forecast Range

423

The Application of a Simple Method for the Verification of Weather Forecasts and Seasonal Variations in Forecast Accuracy  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The evaluation of weather forecast accuracy has always been a difficult subject to address for many reasons. In this study, a simple semiobjective method is used to examine the accuracy of zone forecasts issued by the Weldon Spring (Saint Louis) ...

Anthony R. Lupo; Patrick S. Market

2002-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

424

Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System during the 2005/06 Cool Season  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A simple binning technique developed to produce reliable probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) from a multimodel short-range ensemble forecasting system is evaluated during the cool season of 2005/06. The technique uses ...

Nusrat Yussouf; David J. Stensrud

2008-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

425

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

3 3 Table 8. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts (current dollars per thousand cubic feet) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 4.32 5.47 6.67 7.51 8.04 8.57 AEO 1983 2.93 3.11 3.46 3.93 4.56 5.26 12.74 AEO 1984 2.77 2.90 3.21 3.63 4.13 4.79 9.33 AEO 1985 2.60 2.61 2.66 2.71 2.94 3.35 3.85 4.46 5.10 5.83 6.67 AEO 1986 1.73 1.96 2.29 2.54 2.81 3.15 3.73 4.34 5.06 5.90 6.79 7.70 8.62 9.68 10.80 AEO 1987 1.83 1.95 2.11 2.28 2.49 2.72 3.08 3.51 4.07 7.54 AEO 1989* 1.62 1.70 1.91 2.13 2.58 3.04 3.48 3.93 4.76 5.23 5.80 6.43 6.98 AEO 1990 1.78 1.88 2.93 5.36 9.15 AEO 1991 1.77 1.90 2.11 2.30 2.42 2.51 2.60 2.74 2.91 3.29 3.75 4.31 5.07 5.77 6.45 7.29 AEO 1992 1.69 1.85 2.03 2.15 2.35 2.51 2.74 3.01 3.40 3.81 4.24 4.74 5.25 5.78 6.37 AEO 1993 1.85 1.94 2.09 2.30 2.44 2.60 2.85 3.12 3.47 3.84 4.31 4.81 5.28 5.68

426

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

0 0 Table 15. Average Electricity Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts (nominal cents per kilowatt-hour) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 6.38 6.96 7.63 8.23 8.83 9.49 AEO 1983 6.85 7.28 7.74 8.22 8.68 9.18 13.12 AEO 1984 6.67 7.05 7.48 7.89 8.25 8.65 11.53 AEO 1985 6.62 6.94 7.32 7.63 7.89 8.15 8.46 8.85 9.20 9.61 10.04 AEO 1986 6.67 6.88 7.05 7.18 7.35 7.52 7.65 7.87 8.31 8.83 9.41 10.01 10.61 11.33 12.02 AEO 1987 6.63 6.65 6.92 7.12 7.38 7.62 7.94 8.36 8.86 11.99 AEO 1989* 6.50 6.75 7.14 7.48 7.82 8.11 8.50 8.91 9.39 9.91 10.49 11.05 11.61 AEO 1990 6.49 6.72 8.40 10.99 14.47 AEO 1991 6.94 7.31 7.59 7.82 8.18 8.38 8.54 8.73 8.99 9.38 9.83 10.29 10.83 11.36 11.94 12.58 AEO 1992 6.97 7.16 7.32 7.56 7.78 8.04 8.29 8.57 8.93 9.38 9.82 10.26 10.73 11.25 11.83 AEO 1993 7.18 7.36 7.54 7.77 7.99 8.27 8.54 8.89 9.33 9.72 10.14

427

Forecasts, Meteorology Services, Environmental Sciences Department  

NLE Websites -- All DOE Office Websites (Extended Search)

Forecasts Short Term Forecast Suffolk County Northern Nassau Southern Nassau Area Forecast Discussion - OKX Area Forecast Discussion - NYS Area Forecast Discussion Mount Holly Area...

428

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Table 1. Summary of Differences between AEO Reference Cases and Realized Outcomes Percent Over- Estimated Average Absolute Percent Difference Percent Over- Estimated Average Absolute Percent Difference Table 3. Gross Domestic Product, Actual vs. Forecasts 34% 5.5% 18% 4.5% Table 4. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts 68% 52.9% 36% 20.8% Table 5. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts 31% 2.9% 44% 1.8% Table 6. Domestic Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Forecasts 51% 4.9% 53% 5.2% Table 7. Petroleum Net Imports, Actual vs. Forecasts 49% 6.4% 51% 3.6% Table 8. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Forecasts 61% 63.5% 23% 28.9% Table 9. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts 38% 6.7% 59% 5.6% Table 10. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts 51% 5.5% 70% 5.8%

429

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generating Capacity and Generation | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

generation of each renewable energy source. generation of each renewable energy source. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords AEO generation renewable energy renewable energy generating capacity Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generating Capacity and Generation- Reference Case (xls, 118.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL) Comment Rate this dataset Usefulness of the metadata Average vote Your vote Usefulness of the dataset Average vote Your vote Ease of access Average vote Your vote Overall rating Average vote Your vote Comments Login or register to post comments

430

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generating Capacity and Generation | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

electric power capacity and generation. electric power capacity and generation. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO EIA Renewable energy capacity and generation Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Generating Capacity and Generation- Reference Case (xls, 118.9 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed Comment Temporal and Spatial Coverage Frequency Annually Time Period 2008-2035 License License Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and Licence (PDDL) Comment Rate this dataset Usefulness of the metadata Average vote Your vote Usefulness of the dataset Average vote Your vote Ease of access Average vote Your vote Overall rating Average vote Your vote Comments Login or register to post comments If you rate this dataset, your published comment will include your rating.

431

AEO2011: Renewable Energy Consumption by Sector and Source | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

Consumption by Sector and Source Consumption by Sector and Source Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 17, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion Btu. The data is broken down into marketed renewable energy, residential, commercial, industrial, transportation and electric power. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords Commercial Electric Power Industrial Renewable Energy Consumption Residential sector source transportation Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AEO2011: Renewable Energy Consumption by Sector and Source- Reference Case (xls, 105 KiB) Quality Metrics Level of Review Peer Reviewed

432

Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - Table G1 - Summary of the AEO2000 Cases  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

AEO2000 Cases AEO2000 Cases Case name Description Integration mode Reference in text Reference in Appendix G Reference Baseline economic growth, world oil price, and technology assumptions Fully integrated — — Low Economic Growth Gross domestic product grows at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, compared to the reference case growth of 2.2 percent. Fully integrated p. 49 — High Economic Growth Gross domestic product grows at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent, compared to the reference case growth of 2.2 percent. Fully integrated p. 49 — Low World Oil Price World oil prices are $14.90 per barrel in 2020, compared to $22.04 per barrel in the reference case. Fully integrated p. 50 — High World Oil Price World oil prices are $28.04 per barrel in 2020, compared to $22.04 per barrel in the reference case.

433

Industrial Sector Energy Demand: Revisions for Non-Energy-Intensive Manufacturing (released in AEO2007)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

For the industrial sector, EIAs analysis and projection efforts generally have focused on the energy-intensive industriesfood, bulk chemicals, refining, glass, cement, steel, and aluminumwhere energy cost averages 4.8 percent of annual operating cost. Detailed process flows and energy intensity indicators have been developed for narrowly defined industry groups in the energy-intensive manufacturing sector. The non-energy-intensive manufacturing industries, where energy cost averages 1.9 percent of annual operating cost, previously have received somewhat less attention, however. In AEO2006, energy demand projections were provided for two broadly aggregated industry groups in the non-energy-intensive manufacturing sector: metal-based durables and other non-energy-intensive. In the AEO2006 projections, the two groups accounted for more than 50 percent of the projected increase in industrial natural gas consumption from 2004 to 2030.

Information Center

2007-03-11T23:59:59.000Z

434

AEO2011: Coal Production by Region and Type | OpenEI  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

by Region and Type by Region and Type Dataset Summary Description This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 140, and contains only the reference case. The unit of measurement in this dataset is million short tons. The data is broken down into northern Appalachia, central Appalachia, southern Appalachia, eastern interior, western interior, gulf, Dakota medium, western montana, Wyoming, Rocky Mountain, Arizona/New Mexico and Washington/Alaska. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago) Date Updated Unknown Keywords 2011 AEO Coal Production EIA Data application/vnd.ms-excel icon AE2011: Coal Production by Region and Type- Reference Case (xls, 122.3 KiB)

435

FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann will highly benefit from forecast information on the expected power production. This forecast information and evaluate an approach to forecast regional PV power production. The forecast quality was investigated

Heinemann, Detlev

436

State Restrictions on Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

By the end of 2005, 25 States had barred, or passed laws banning, any more than trace levels of MTBE in their gasoline supplies, and legislation to ban MTBE was pending in 4 others. Some State laws address only MTBE; others also address ethers such as ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) and tertiary amyl methyl ether (TAME). AEO2006 assumes that all State MTBE bans prohibit the use of all ethers for gasoline blending.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

437

Volumetric Excise Tax Credit for Alternative Fuels (released in AEO2006)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

On August 10, 2005, President Bush signed into law the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, and Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU)]. The act includes authorization for a multitude of transportation infrastructure projects, establishes highway safety provisions, provides for R&D, and includes a large number of miscellaneous provisions related to transportation, most of which are not included in AEO2006 because their energy impacts are vague or undefined.

Information Center

2006-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

438

D:\AEO98\OV98\front.wpd  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

8) 8) Distribution Category UC-950 The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 1998 February 1998 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. ii Energy Information Administration/ The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 1998 PREFACE The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview provides a summary description of the National Energy Modeling

439

Verifying Forecasts Spatially  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Numerous new methods have been proposed for using spatial information to better quantify and diagnose forecast performance when forecasts and observations are both available on the same grid. The majority of the new spatial verification methods can be ...

Eric Gilleland; David A. Ahijevych; Barbara G. Brown; Elizabeth E. Ebert

2010-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

440

Forecasting of Supercooled Clouds  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Using parameterizations of cloud microphysics, a technique to forecast supercooled cloud events is suggested. This technique can be coupled on the mesoscale with a prognostic equation for cloud water to improve aircraft icing forecasts. The ...

André Tremblay; Anna Glazer; Wanda Szyrmer; George Isaac; Isztar Zawadzki

1995-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


441

An evaluation of Bayesian techniques for controlling model complexity and selecting inputs in a neural network for short-term load forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Artificial neural networks have frequently been proposed for electricity load forecasting because of their capabilities for the nonlinear modelling of large multivariate data sets. Modelling with neural networks is not an easy task though; two of the ... Keywords: Bayesian model selection, Bayesian neural networks, Input selection, Load forecasting

Henrique S. Hippert; James W. Taylor

2010-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

442

Time Series and Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Time Series and Forecasting. Leigh, Stefan and Perlman, S. (1991). "An Index for Comovement of Time Sequences With ...

443

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 ­ Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast

444

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

5 5 Table 10. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Forecasts (trillion cubic feet) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 14.74 14.26 14.33 14.89 15.39 15.88 AEO 1983 16.48 16.27 16.20 16.31 16.27 16.29 14.89 AEO 1984 17.48 17.10 17.44 17.58 17.52 17.32 16.39 AEO 1985 16.95 17.08 17.11 17.29 17.40 17.33 17.32 17.27 17.05 16.80 16.50 AEO 1986 16.30 16.27 17.15 16.68 16.90 16.97 16.87 16.93 16.86 16.62 16.40 16.33 16.57 16.23 16.12 AEO 1987 16.21 16.09 16.38 16.32 16.30 16.30 16.44 16.62 16.81 17.39 AEO 1989* 16.71 16.71 16.94 17.01 16.83 17.09 17.35 17.54 17.67 17.98 18.20 18.25 18.49 AEO 1990 16.91 17.25 18.84 20.58 20.24 AEO 1991 17.40 17.48 18.11 18.22 18.15 18.22 18.39 18.82 19.03 19.28 19.62 19.89 20.13 20.07 19.95 19.82 AEO 1992 17.43 17.69 17.95 18.00 18.29 18.27 18.51 18.75 18.97 19.19 19.48 19.78

445

Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

4 4 Table 9. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Forecasts (trillion cubic feet) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 AEO 1982 15.93 15.72 15.72 16.08 16.59 17.08 AEO 1983 17.75 17.63 17.57 17.75 17.76 17.77 16.95 AEO 1984 18.22 18.07 18.33 18.61 18.73 18.76 18.75 AEO 1985 17.79 17.80 17.89 18.30 18.58 18.71 18.79 18.88 18.82 18.82 18.81 AEO 1986 16.52 16.83 17.35 17.27 17.50 17.77 17.77 17.90 18.01 18.04 18.03 18.26 18.34 18.04 17.92 AEO 1987 16.85 16.93 17.24 17.27 17.34 17.43 17.66 18.02 18.31 19.65 AEO 1989* 17.75 17.95 17.94 18.08 18.10 18.34 18.68 18.94 19.17 19.55 19.86 19.98 20.29 AEO 1990 18.34 18.66 20.69 22.88 22.72 AEO 1991 18.53 19.21 19.34 19.56 19.76 20.01 20.21 20.66 20.93 21.23 21.64 22.03 22.33 22.35 22.32 22.27 AEO 1992 18.79 19.36 19.84 20.08 20.53 20.68 21.12 21.42 21.66 21.89 22.23

446

Evaluation and Application of Conditional Symmetric Instability, Equivalent Potential Vorticity, and Frontogenetic Forcing in an Operational Forecast Environment  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The related fields of equivalent potential temperature (?e), geostrophic momentum (Mg), equivalent potential vorticity (EPV), and frontogenetic forcing were computed, analyzed, and evaluated for two mid-Atlantic states snowstorms in which ...

James L. Wiesmueller; Steven M. Zubrick

1998-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

447

An Evaluation of Soundings, Analyses and Model Forecasts Derived from TIROS-N and NOAA-6 Satellite Data  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Evaluations of operational TIROS-N and NOAA-6 temperature soundings over North America are presented for an early January 1980 period one month after completion of the First GARP Global Experiment. In addition to collocated comparisons, synoptic ...

Thomas L. Koehler; John C. Derber; Brian D. Schmidt; Lyle H. Horn

1983-03-01T23:59:59.000Z

448

Abstract--We present new approaches for 5-minute ahead electricity load forecasting. They were evaluated on data from  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

in deregulated and competitive energy markets, such as the Australian national electricity market. Market. Agelidis is with the Centre for Energy Research and Policy Analysis, University of New South Wales, Sydney evaluated on data from the Australian electricity market operator for 2006-2008. After examining the load

Koprinska, Irena

449

Evaluating the Performance of Planetary Boundary Layer and Cloud Microphysical Parameterization Schemes in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts using  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

uncertainty in how to include various processes (e.g., drop breakup and ice-phase categories 1 Evaluating the Performance of Planetary Boundary Layer and Cloud Microphysical Parameterization In this study, the ability of several cloud microphysical and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes

Xue, Ming

450

Evaluation of Cold-Season Precipitation Forecasts Generated by the Hourly Updating High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The hourly updating High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is evaluated with regard to its ability to predict the areal extent of cold-season precipitation and accurately depict the timing and location of regions of snow, rain, and mixed-phase ...

Kyoko Ikeda; Matthias Steiner; James Pinto; Curtis Alexander

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

451

Business forecasting methods  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Forecasting is a common statistical task in business, where it helps inform decisions about scheduling of production, transportation and personnel, and provides a guide to long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done poorly and is frequently confused with planning and goals. They are three different things. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible, given all the information available including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact the forecasts. Goals are what you would like to happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this does not always occur. Too often, goals are set without any plan for how to achieve them, and no forecasts for whether they are realistic. Planning is a response to forecasts and goals. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions that are required to make your forecasts match your goals. Forecasting should be an integral part of the decision-making activities of management, as it can play an important role in many areas of a company. Modern organizations require short-, medium- and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.

Rob J Hyndman

2009-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

452

ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended

Hamill, Tom

453

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P. [Dept. of Civil Eng., NIT, Silchar (India)

2010-10-26T23:59:59.000Z

454

Mid-range energy-forecasting system: structure, forecasts, and critique  

SciTech Connect

The Mid-Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS) is a large-scale, interdisciplinary model of the US energy system maintained by the US Department of Energy. MEFS provides long-run regional forecasts of delivered prices for electricity, coal, gasoline, residual, distillate, and natural gas. A number of sets of MEFS forecasts are usually issued, each set corresponding to a different scenario. Because it forecasts prices and since these forecasts are regularly disseminated, MEFS is of considerable practical interest. A critical guide of the model's output for potential users is provided in this paper. The model's logic is described, the latest forecasts from MEFS are presented, and the reasonableness of both the forecasts and the methodology are critically evaluated. The manner in which MEFS interfaces with the Oil Market Simulation Model, which forecasts crude oil price, is also discussed. The evaluation concludes that while there are serious problems with MEFS, selective use can prove very helpful. 17 references, 1 figure, 2 tables.

DeSouza, G.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

455

EIA - AEO2010 - U.S. nuclear power plants: Continued life or replacement  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

U.S. nuclear power plants: continued life or replacement after 60? U.S. nuclear power plants: continued life or replacement after 60? Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 U.S. nuclear power plants: Continued life or replacement after 60? Background Nuclear power plants generate approximately 20 percent of U.S. electricity, and the plants in operation today are often seen as attractive assets in the current environment of uncertainty about future fossil fuel prices, high construction costs for new power plants (particularly nuclear plants), and the potential enactment of GHG regulations. Existing nuclear power plants have low fuel costs and relatively high power output. However, there is uncertainty about how long they will be allowed to continue operating. The nuclear industry has expressed strong interest in continuing the operation of existing nuclear facilities, and no particular technical issues have been identified that would impede their continued operation. Recent AEOs had assumed that existing nuclear units would be retired after 60 years of operation (the initial 40-year license plus one 20-year license renewal). Maintaining the same assumption in AEO2010, with the projection horizon extended to 2035, would result in the retirement of more than one-third of existing U.S. nuclear capacity between 2029 and 2035. Given the uncertainty about when existing nuclear capacity actually will be retired, EIA revisited the assumption for the development of AEO2010 and modified it to allow the continued operation of all existing U.S. nuclear power plants through 2035 in the Reference case.

456

Wind Energy Forecasting Technology Update: 2004  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report describes the status of wind energy forecasting technology for predicting wind speed and energy generation of wind energy facilities short-term (minutes to hours), intermediate-term (hours to days), and long-term (months to years) average wind speed and energy generation. The information should be useful to companies that are evaluating or planning to incorporate wind energy forecasting into their operations.

2005-04-26T23:59:59.000Z

457

Trends in Heating and Cooling Degree Days: Implications for Energy Demand Issues (released in AEO2008)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

Weather-related energy use, in the form of heating, cooling, and ventilation, accounted for more than 40 percent of all delivered energy use in residential and commercial buildings in 2006. Given the relatively large amount of energy affected by ambient temperature in the buildings sector, EIA has reevaluated what it considers normal weather for purposes of projecting future energy use for heating, cooling, and ventilation. In AEO2008, estimates of normal heating and cooling degree-days are based on the population-weighted average for the 10-year period from 1997 through 2006.

Information Center

2008-09-24T23:59:59.000Z

458

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Update Through 2006 (Update) (released in AEO2007)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

AEO2006 provided a review of renewable energy programs that were in effect in 23 States at the end of 2005 [37]. Since then (as of September 1, 2006), no new State programs have been adopted; however, several States with renewable energy programs in place have made changes as they have gained experience and identified areas for improvement. Revisions made over the past year range from clarification or modification of program definitions, such as which resources qualify, to substantial increases in targets for renewable electricity generation or capacity. The following paragraphs provide an overview of substantive changes in the design or implementation of State renewable energy programs.

Information Center

2007-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

459

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Update through 2008 (Update) (released in AEO2009)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

State RPS programs continue to play an important role in AEO2009, growing in number while existing programs are modified with more stringent targets. In total, 28 States and the District of Columbia now have mandatory RPS programs (Table 3), and at least 4 other States have voluntary renewable energy programs. In the absence of a Federal renewable electricity standard, each State determines its own levels of generation, eligible technologies, and noncompliance penalties. The growth in State renewable energy requirements has led to an expansion of renewable energy credit (REC) markets, which vary from State to State. Credit prices depend on the State renewable requirements and how easily they can be met.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z

460

Loan Guarantees and the Economics of Electricity Generating Technologies (released in AEO2007)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

The loan guarantee program authorized in Title XVII of EPACT2005 is not included in AEO2007, because the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 requires congressional authorization of loan guarantees in an appropriations act before a Federal agency can make a binding loan guarantee agreement. As of October 2006, Congress had not provided the legislation necessary for DOE to implement the loan guarantee program (see Legislation and Regulations). In August 2006, however, DOE invited firms to submit pre applications for the first $2 billion in potential loan guarantees.

Information Center

2007-03-11T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


461

Fuel Economy Standards for New Light Trucks (released in AEO2007)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

In March 2006, NHTSA finalized CAFE standards requiring higher fuel economy performance for light-duty trucks in MY 2008 through 2011. Unlike the proposed CAFE standards discussed in AEO2006 [13], which would have established minimum fuel economy requirements by six footprint size classes, the final reformed CAFE standards specify a continuous mathematical function that determines minimum fuel economy requirements by vehicle footprint, defined as the wheelbase (the distance from the front axle to the center of the rear axle) times the average track width (the distance between the center lines of the tires) of the vehicle in square feet.

Information Center

2007-02-22T23:59:59.000Z

462

ORNL integrated forecasting system  

SciTech Connect

This paper describes the integrated system for forecasting electric energy and load. In the system, service area models of electrical energy (kWh) and load distribution (minimum and maximum loads and load duration curve) are linked to a state-level model of electrical energy (kWh). Thus, the service area forecasts are conditional upon the state-level forecasts. Such a linkage reduces considerably the data requirements for modeling service area electricity demand.

Rizy, C.G.

1983-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

463

Delays and cancellations of coal-fired generating capacity: review, data evaluation, and recommendations for improved forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This report documents the extent of the electric utilities' difficulty in planning power generating units and proposes a technique for improving the predictions. Additional work is currently under way to test the methodology proposed here. The results of these efforts will be reported in a companion volume as soon as they are available. Chapter 1 examines delays and cancellations from a historical perspective. It evaluates the reasons for the difficulty and the potential impact on the electric utility industry and the electric power consumer. Chapter 2 examines the relationships between delays and cancellations, and identifies the data that could be used in an improved prediction method. Three methods are discussed, based on three types of data, and one system is recommended for implementation.

Not Available

1983-07-01T23:59:59.000Z

464

Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Bayesian processor of forecast (BPF) is developed for a continuous predictand. Its purpose is to process a deterministic forecast (a point estimate of the predictand) into a probabilistic forecast (a distribution function, a density function, ...

Roman Krzysztofowicz; W. Britt Evans

2008-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

465

Verification of Surface Temperature Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database over the Western United States  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Experimental gridded forecasts of surface temperature issued by National Weather Service offices in the western United States during the 2003/04 winter season (18 November 2003–29 February 2004) are evaluated relative to surface observations and ...

David T. Myrick; John D. Horel

2006-10-01T23:59:59.000Z

466

Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in various regions have been developed since the first attempts in the early 1980s by Neville

Suzana J. Camargo; Anthony G. Barnston; Philip J. Klotzbach; Christopher W. Landsea

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

467

Solar forecasting review  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Online 24-h solar power forecasting based on weather typeweather observations at blue hill massachusetts,” Solarof weather patterns on the intensity of solar irradiance;

Inman, Richard Headen

2012-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

468

Global and Local Skill Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

A skill forecast gives the probability distribution for the error in a forecast. Statistically, Well-founded skill forecasting methods have so far only been applied within the context of simple models. In this paper, the growth of analysis errors ...

P. L. Houtekamer

1993-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

469

Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN; the former with primary contributions in the areas of climate and hydrologic forecasting and the latter Service (NWS) California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the California Department of Water

470

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy

471

Does the term structure forecast  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

provides more accurate forecasts of real consumption growth14. Harvey, C.R. (1989): \\Forecasts of economic growth fromC.R. (1993): \\Term structure forecasts economic growth", Fi-

Berardi, Andrea; Torous, Walter

2002-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

472

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Forecast error is decomposed into three components, termed displacement error, amplitude error, mid residual error, respectively. Displacement error measures how much of the forecast error can be accounted for by moving the forecast to best fit ...

Ross N. Hoffman; Zheng Liu; Jean-Francois Louis; Christopher Grassoti

1995-09-01T23:59:59.000Z

473

Composite forecasting in commodity systems  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Paper No. COMPOSI1E FORECASTING IN CO/Yt.flDITI SYSTfu\\1S1980 .i CfIAPTER COMPOSITE FORECASTING IN COMMOOITY SYSTEMS*to utilizeeconometric .modelsfor forecasting ! ,urposes. The

Johnson, Stanley R; Rausser, Gordon C.

1980-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

474

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific  

SciTech Connect

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

2011-08-26T23:59:59.000Z

475

EIA - Forecasts and Analysis of Energy Data  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Preface Preface This report presents international energy projections through 2025, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. The International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2025. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2005 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Although the IEO typically uses the same reference case as the AEO, IEO2005 has adopted the October futures case from AEO2005 as its reference case for the United States. The October futures case, which has an assumption of higher world oil prices than the AEO2005 reference case, now appears to be a more likely projection. The reference case prices will be reconsidered for the next AEO. Based on information available as of July 2005, the AEO2006 reference case will likely reflect world oil prices higher than those in the IEO2005 reference case.

476

Coefficients for Debiasing Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Skill-score decompositions can be used to analyze the effects of bias on forecasting skill. However, since bias terms are typically squared, and bias is measured in skill-score units rather than in units of the forecasts, such decompositions only ...

Thomas R. Stewart; Patricia Reagan-Cirincione

1991-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

477

Forecasters ’ Objectives and Strategies ?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive literature on analysts, we review the empirical evidence on strategic forecasting and illustrate how our model can be structurally estimated.

Iván Marinovic; Marco Ottaviani; Peter Norman Sűrensen

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

478

A New Verification Score for Public Forecasts  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

CREF, a new verification score for public forecasts, is introduced. This verification score rewards a forecaster who forecasts a rare event accurately. CREF was used to verify local forecasts at the Weather Service Forecast Office (WSFO) in ...

Dean P. Gulezian

1981-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

479

Remote Sensing Of Snow Cover For Operational Forecasts  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

The areal extent of the seasonal snow cover is an important input variable for operational snowmelt runoff forecasts. It can be monitored by satellites and used by the SRM Snowmelt Runoff Model. An example is presented of simulated dayto -day runoff forecasts for a hydroelectric station Sedrun (108 km , 1840-3210 m a.s.l.). For realtime runoff forecasts it will be necessary to evaluate the satellite data within several days after each overflight. 1

K. Seidel; J. Martinec; C. Steinmeier; W. Bruesch

1993-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

480

Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts during the 1997/98 ENSO Using Persisted SST Anomalies  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

An evaluation of trial seasonal forecasts during the 1997/98 El Nińo, using an atmospheric GCM forced by persisted sea surface temperature and sea-ice anomalies, is presented. Generally, forecasts of seasonal anomalies of precipitation, surface ...

Carsten S. Frederiksen; Huqiang Zhang; Ramesh C. Balgovind; Neville Nicholls; Wasyl Drosdowsky; Lynda Chambers

2001-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

Note: This page contains sample records for the topic "aeo forecast evaluations" from the National Library of EnergyBeta (NLEBeta).
While these samples are representative of the content of NLEBeta,
they are not comprehensive nor are they the most current set.
We encourage you to perform a real-time search of NLEBeta
to obtain the most current and comprehensive results.


481

Summer Rainfall Forecast Spread in an Ensemble Initialized with Different Soil Moisture Analyses  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The performance of an ensemble forecasting system initialized using varied soil moisture alone has been evaluated for rainfall forecasts of six warm season convective cases. Ten different soil moisture analyses were used as initial conditions in ...

Eric A. Aligo; William A. Gallus Jr.; Moti Segal

2007-04-01T23:59:59.000Z

482

Development of Skill by Students Enrolled in a Weather Forecasting Laboratory  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Daily values of forecast scores are evaluated for students in a weather analysis and forecasting class (ATMS 452) offered by the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Washington during the spring terms of 1997–2007. The ...

Nicholas A. Bond; Clifford F. Mass

2009-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

483

Neural networks based multiplex forecasting system of the end-point of copper blow period  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The neural network and the experiential evaluation method are introduced into the industrial converting process forecast, and a multiplex forecast system is proposed at the end-point of copper blow period in a matte converting process. The fuzzy clustering ...

Lihua Xue; Hongzhong Huang; Yaohua Hu; Zhangming Shi

2005-05-01T23:59:59.000Z

484

Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system operation in terms of the efficiency of the system. The goal of this dissertation is to develop advanced statistical wind speed predictive models to reduce the uncertainties in wind, especially the short-term future wind speed. Moreover, a criterion is proposed to evaluate the performance of models. Cost reduction in power system operation, as proposed, is more realistic than prevalent criteria, such as, root mean square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE). Two advanced space-time statistical models are introduced for short-term wind speed forecasting. One is a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed fore- casting model, which allows the forecast regimes to vary according to the dominant wind direction and seasons. Thus, it avoids a subjective choice of regimes. The other one is a novel model that incorporates a new variable, geostrophic wind, which has strong influence on the surface wind, into one of the advanced space-time statistical forecasting models. This model is motivated by the lack of improvement in forecast accuracy when using air pressure and temperature directly. Using geostrophic wind in the model is not only critical, it also has a meaningful geophysical interpretation. The importance of model evaluation is emphasized in the dissertation as well. Rather than using RMSE or MAE, the performance of both wind forecasting models mentioned above are assessed by economic benefits with real wind farm data from Pacific Northwest of the U.S and West Texas. Wind forecasts are incorporated into power system economic dispatch models, and the power system operation cost is used as a loss measure for the performance of the forecasting models. From another perspective, the new criterion leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation with potential economic benefits arising from the system-wide generation of cost savings and ancillary services cost savings. As an illustration, the integrated forecasts and economic dispatch framework are applied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) equivalent 24- bus system. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, the first model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars. For the second model, numerical simulations suggest that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6.6% using look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with dispatch with persistent wind forecast model.

Zhu, Xinxin

2013-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

485

U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Administration. 2004c. "Energy Glossary Website."http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/. Energy InformationGIS Appendix G. Glossary AEO : The Annual Energy Outlook,

Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

2005-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

486

Evaluation of the Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to Parameterization Schemes for Regional Climates of Europe over the Period 1990–95  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to downscale interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data for the climate over Europe for the period 1990–95 with grid spacing of 0.44° for 12 combinations of physical parameterizations. Two ...

P. A. Mooney; F. J. Mulligan; R. Fealy

2013-02-01T23:59:59.000Z

487

NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Industry Insight: West Virginia Fiscal Forecast 34 CHAPTER 4: WEST ViRGiNiA'S 35 COUNTiES AND MSAs West Forecast Summary 2 CHAPTER 1: THE UNiTED STATES ECONOMY Figure 1.1: United States Real GDP Growth 3 Figure

Mohaghegh, Shahab

488

APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic

Katz, Richard

489

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

Michael P. Clements; Michael P. Clements

2010-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

490

Value of Probabilistic Weather Forecasts: Assessment by Real-Time Optimization of Irrigation Scheduling  

SciTech Connect

This paper presents a modeling framework for real-time decision support for irrigation scheduling using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) probabilistic rainfall forecasts. The forecasts and their probability distributions are incorporated into a simulation-optimization modeling framework. In this study, modeling irrigation is determined by a stochastic optimization program based on the simulated soil moisture and crop water-stress status and the forecasted rainfall for the next 1-7 days. The modeling framework is applied to irrigated corn in Mason County, Illinois. It is found that there is ample potential to improve current farmers practices by simply using the proposed simulation-optimization framework, which uses the present soil moisture and crop evapotranspiration information even without any forecasts. It is found that the values of the forecasts vary across dry, normal, and wet years. More significant economic gains are found in normal and wet years than in dry years under the various forecast horizons. To mitigate drought effect on crop yield through irrigation, medium- or long-term climate predictions likely play a more important role than short-term forecasts. NOAA's imperfect 1-week forecast is still valuable in terms of both profit gain and water saving. Compared with the no-rain forecast case, the short-term imperfect forecasts could lead to additional 2.4-8.5% gain in profit and 11.0-26.9% water saving. However, the performance of the imperfect forecast is only slightly better than the ensemble weather forecast based on historical data and slightly inferior to the perfect forecast. It seems that the 1-week forecast horizon is too limited to evaluate the role of the various forecast scenarios for irrigation scheduling, which is actually a seasonal decision issue. For irrigation scheduling, both the forecast quality and the length of forecast time horizon matter. Thus, longer forecasts might be necessary to evaluate the role of forecasts for irrigation scheduling in a more effective way.

Cai, Ximing; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Wang, Dingbao

2011-09-29T23:59:59.000Z

491

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast

492

LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

's electricity price forecasting model, produces forecast of gas demand consistent with electric load. #12Gas demand Council's Market Price of Electricity Forecast Natural GasDemand Electric Load Aggregating Natural between the natural gas and electricity and new uses of natural gas emerge. T natural gas forecasts

Feinberg, Eugene A.

493

Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations  

E-Print Network (OSTI)

Global large scale penetration of wind energy is accompanied by significant challenges due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This paper gives an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends, and reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series models and advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented.

Xinxin Zhu; Marc G. Genton

2011-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

494

Factors Driving Prices & Forecast  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

This spread is a function of the balance between demand and fresh supply (production and net imports). Finally I will discuss the current forecast for distillate prices this winter...

495

Modeling and Forecasting Aurora  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

Modeling the physical processes needed for forecasting space-weather events requires multiscale modeling. This article discusses several modelsresearchers use to treat the various auroral processes that influence space weather.

Dirk Lummerzheim

2007-01-01T23:59:59.000Z

496

Aspects of Effective Mesoscale, Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

This study developed and evaluated a short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system with the goal of producing useful, mesoscale forecast probability (FP). Real-time, 0–48-h SREF predictions were produced and analyzed for 129 cases over the ...

F. Anthony Eckel; Clifford F. Mass

2005-06-01T23:59:59.000Z

497

Variable Selection for Five-Minute Ahead Electricity Load Forecasting  

Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)

We use autocorrelation analysis to extract 6 nested feature sets of previous electricity loads for 5-minite ahead electricity load forecasting. We evaluate their predictive power using Australian electricity data. Our results show that the most important ... Keywords: very short-term electricity load forecasting, prediction, variable selection, autocorrelation analysis

Irena Koprinska; Rohen Sood; Vassilios Agelidis

2010-08-01T23:59:59.000Z

498

AEO2011: Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - East North Central |  

Open Energy Info (EERE)

North Central North Central Dataset Summary Description http://en.openei.org/w/skins/openei/images/ui-bg_gloss_wave-medium_40_d6...); background-attachment: scroll; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: rgb(214, 235, 225); line-height: 17px; width: 650px; background-position: 50% 0%; background-repeat: repeat no-repeat; ">This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is table 3, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses quadrillion btu. The data is broken down into residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power and total energy consumption. Source EIA Date Released April 26th, 2011 (3 years ago)

499

EIA - AEO2010 - Accounting for carbon dioxide emissions from biomass energy  

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

Accounting for carbon diioxide emissions from biomass energy combustion Accounting for carbon diioxide emissions from biomass energy combustion Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 Accounting for carbon dioxide emissions from biomass energy combustion CO2 emissions from the combustion of biomass [75] to produce energy are excluded from the energy-related CO2 emissions reported in AEO2010. According to current international convention [76], carbon released through biomass combustion is excluded from reported energy-related emissions. The release of carbon from biomass combustion is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in zero net emissions over some period of time [77]. However, analysts have debated whether increased use of biomass energy may result in a decline in terrestrial carbon stocks, leading to a net positive release of carbon rather than the zero net release assumed by its exclusion from reported energy-related emissions.

500

Accounting for Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Biomass Energy Combustion (released in AEO2010)  

Reports and Publications (EIA)

CO2 emissions from the combustion of biomass [75] to produce energy are excluded from the energy-related CO2 emissions reported in AEO2010. According to current international convention, carbon released through biomass combustion is excluded from reported energy-related emissions. The release of carbon from biomass combustion is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in zero net emissions over some period of time]. However, analysts have debated whether increased use of biomass energy may result in a decline in terrestrial carbon stocks, leading to a net positive release of carbon rather than the zero net release assumed by its exclusion from reported energy-related emissions.

Information Center

2010-05-11T23:59:59.000Z