National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for actual base forecast

  1. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  2. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  3. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  4. Base Oil Market Segment Forecasts up to 2020,Research Reports...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Research Home > Groups > Future of Condition Monitoring for Wind Turbines Wayne31jan's picture Submitted by Wayne31jan(150) Contributor 11 June, 2015 - 03:19 Base Oil...

  5. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  6. Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting Flu March 6, 2016 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del Valle and her team from Los Alamos National Laboratory have developed a global disease-forecasting system that will improve the way we respond to epidemics. Using this model, individuals and public health officials can monitor

  7. RACORO Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Hartsock CIMMS, University of Oklahoma  ARM AAF Wiki page  Weather Briefings  Observed Weather  Cloud forecasting models  BUFKIT forecast soundings + guidance from Norman NWS enhanced pages and discussions NAM-WRF updated twice/day (12Z and 00Z) Forecast out to 84-hours RUC (updated every 3 hours) Operational RUC forecast only goes out 12 hours (developmental out 24 hours)

  8. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    based on today's forecast." Del Valle and her team were able to successfully monitor influenza in the United States, Poland, Japan and Thailand, dengue fever in Brazil and...

  9. Acquisition Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    It is the policy of the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE/NNSA’s forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department’s major site and facilities management contractors.

  10. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  11. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and ... energy technologies based on estimates of future rates of progress and adoption. ...

  12. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  13. Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  14. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  15. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  16. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  17. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  18. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    generation output by using forecasts that incorporate meteorological data to predict production. Such systems typically provide forecasts at a number of timescales, ranging from...

  19. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  20. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  1. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    NOAA Provides Forecasting Support for CLASIC and CHAPS 2007 Forecasting Challenge While weather experiments in the heart of Tornado Alley typically focus on severe weather, the CLASIC and CHAPS programs will have different emphases. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Norman, Okla. will provide weather forecasting support to these two Department of Energy experiments based in the state. Forecasting support for meteorological research field programs usually

  3. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  4. LED Lighting Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Publications Market Studies LED Lighting Forecast LED Lighting Forecast The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications ...

  5. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  6. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  7. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  8. The forecast calls for flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ... Laboratory found a way to forecast the flu season and even next week's sickness trends. ...

  9. Solar Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Systems Integration » Solar Forecasting Solar Forecasting On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S. solar energy plants. Part of the SunShot Systems Integration efforts, the Solar Forecasting projects will allow power system operators to integrate more solar energy into the electricity grid, and ensure the economic and reliable delivery of

  10. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. Currently, uncertainties associated with wind and load forecasts, as well as uncertainties associated with random generator outages and unexpected disconnection of supply lines, are not taken into account in power grid operation. Thus, operators have little means to weigh the likelihood and magnitude of upcoming events of power imbalance. In this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), a framework has been developed for incorporating uncertainties associated with wind and load forecast errors, unpredicted ramps, and forced generation disconnections into the energy management system (EMS) as well as generation dispatch and commitment applications. A new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope including balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration has been proposed. The approach includes three stages: forecast and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence levels. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis, incorporating all sources of uncertainties of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the flying brick technique has been developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation algorithm has been developed to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals.

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, J. M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-11

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  12. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    probabilistic energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management

  13. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  14. How People Actually Use Thermostats

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Meier, Alan; Aragon, Cecilia; Hurwitz, Becky; Mujumdar, Dhawal; Peffer, Therese; Perry, Daniel; Pritoni, Marco

    2010-08-15

    Residential thermostats have been a key element in controlling heating and cooling systems for over sixty years. However, today's modern programmable thermostats (PTs) are complicated and difficult for users to understand, leading to errors in operation and wasted energy. Four separate tests of usability were conducted in preparation for a larger study. These tests included personal interviews, an on-line survey, photographing actual thermostat settings, and measurements of ability to accomplish four tasks related to effective use of a PT. The interviews revealed that many occupants used the PT as an on-off switch and most demonstrated little knowledge of how to operate it. The on-line survey found that 89% of the respondents rarely or never used the PT to set a weekday or weekend program. The photographic survey (in low income homes) found that only 30% of the PTs were actually programmed. In the usability test, we found that we could quantify the difference in usability of two PTs as measured in time to accomplish tasks. Users accomplished the tasks in consistently shorter times with the touchscreen unit than with buttons. None of these studies are representative of the entire population of users but, together, they illustrate the importance of improving user interfaces in PTs.

  15. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  16. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  17. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  18. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  19. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  20. Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction: Prediction of Cesium Extraction for Actual Wastes and Actual Waste Simulants

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Delmau, L.H.; Haverlock, T.J.; Sloop, F.V., Jr.; Moyer, B.A.

    2003-02-01

    This report presents the work that followed the CSSX model development completed in FY2002. The developed cesium and potassium extraction model was based on extraction data obtained from simple aqueous media. It was tested to ensure the validity of the prediction for the cesium extraction from actual waste. Compositions of the actual tank waste were obtained from the Savannah River Site personnel and were used to prepare defined simulants and to predict cesium distribution ratios using the model. It was therefore possible to compare the cesium distribution ratios obtained from the actual waste, the simulant, and the predicted values. It was determined that the predicted values agree with the measured values for the simulants. Predicted values also agreed, with three exceptions, with measured values for the tank wastes. Discrepancies were attributed in part to the uncertainty in the cation/anion balance in the actual waste composition, but likely more so to the uncertainty in the potassium concentration in the waste, given the demonstrated large competing effect of this metal on cesium extraction. It was demonstrated that the upper limit for the potassium concentration in the feed ought to not exceed 0.05 M in order to maintain suitable cesium distribution ratios.

  1. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  2. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  3. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  4. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex...

  5. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am...

  6. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

  8. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  9. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  10. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  11. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  12. Solar Forecast Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecast Improvement Project Solar Forecast Improvement Project NOAA.png For the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP), the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) is partnering with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and IBM to develop more accurate methods for solar forecasts using their state-of-the-art weather models. APPROACH NOAA solar.png SFIP has three main goals: 1) to develop solar forecasting metrics tailored to the utility sector; 2) to improve solar

  13. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  14. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  15. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  16. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2015 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review Goal Statement Addresses the following MYPP BETO goals:  Advance scientific methods and models for measuring and understanding

  17. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. In July, the Department of Energy launched a $6 million project with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private partners to improve wind forecasting. Wind power forecasting allows system operators to anticipate the electrical output of wind plants and adjust the electrical

  18. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  19. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  20. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  1. Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Matthew Langholtz Science Team Leader Oak Ridge National Laboratory DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2015 Project Peer Review Supply Forecast and Analysis (SFA) 2 | Bioenergy Technologies Office Goal Statement * Provide timely and credible estimates of feedstock supplies and prices to support - the development of a bioeconomy; feedstock demand analysis of EISA, RFS2, and RPS mandates - the data and analysis of other projects in Analysis and Sustainability, Feedstock Supply and Logistics,

  2. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    CampaignsCarbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)Tracer Forecast for CARES Related Links CARES Home AAF Home ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Post-Campaign Data Sets Field Updates CARES Wiki Campaign Images Experiment Planning Proposal Abstract and Related Campaigns Science Plan Operations Plan Measurements Forecasts News News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage

  3. UPF Forecast | Y-12 National Security Complex

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    UPF Forecast UPF Forecast UPF Procurement provides the following forecast of subcontracting opportunities. Keep in mind that these requirements may be revised or cancelled, depending on program budget funding or departmental needs. If you have questions or would like to express an interest in any of the opportunities listed below, contact UPF Procurement. Descriptiona Methodb NAICS Est. Dollar Range RFP release/ Award datec Buyer/ Phone Commodities Equipment Rental FOC 238910 TBD 3Q FY15/ 3Q

  4. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  5. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  6. FY 2013 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2013 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement PDF icon FY ...

  7. FY 2012 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2012 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement PDF icon FY ...

  8. Table 13. Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million short tons)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",999,1021,1041,1051,1056,1066,1073,1081,1087,1098,1107,1122,1121,1128,1143,1173,1201,1223 "AEO 1995",,1006,1010,1011,1016,1017,1021,1027,1033,1040,1051,1066,1076,1083,1090,1108,1122,1137 "AEO

  9. Table 22. Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (quadrillion Btu / $Billion 2005 Chained GDP)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",10.89145253,10.73335719,10.63428655,10.48440125,10.33479508,10.20669515,10.06546105,9.94541493,9.822393757,9.707148466,9.595465524,9.499032573,9.390723436,9.29474735,9.185496812,9.096176848,9.007677565,8.928276581 "AEO

  10. Stereotactic, Single-Dose Irradiation of Lung Tumors: A Comparison of Absolute Dose and Dose Distribution Between Pencil Beam and Monte Carlo Algorithms Based on Actual Patient CT Scans

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chen Huixiao; Lohr, Frank; Fritz, Peter; Wenz, Frederik; Dobler, Barbara; Lorenz, Friedlieb; Muehlnickel, Werner

    2010-11-01

    Purpose: Dose calculation based on pencil beam (PB) algorithms has its shortcomings predicting dose in tissue heterogeneities. The aim of this study was to compare dose distributions of clinically applied non-intensity-modulated radiotherapy 15-MV plans for stereotactic body radiotherapy between voxel Monte Carlo (XVMC) calculation and PB calculation for lung lesions. Methods and Materials: To validate XVMC, one treatment plan was verified in an inhomogeneous thorax phantom with EDR2 film (Eastman Kodak, Rochester, NY). Both measured and calculated (PB and XVMC) dose distributions were compared regarding profiles and isodoses. Then, 35 lung plans originally created for clinical treatment by PB calculation with the Eclipse planning system (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA) were recalculated by XVMC (investigational implementation in PrecisePLAN [Elekta AB, Stockholm, Sweden]). Clinically relevant dose-volume parameters for target and lung tissue were compared and analyzed statistically. Results: The XVMC calculation agreed well with film measurements (<1% difference in lateral profile), whereas the deviation between PB calculation and film measurements was up to +15%. On analysis of 35 clinical cases, the mean dose, minimal dose and coverage dose value for 95% volume of gross tumor volume were 1.14 {+-} 1.72 Gy, 1.68 {+-} 1.47 Gy, and 1.24 {+-} 1.04 Gy lower by XVMC compared with PB, respectively (prescription dose, 30 Gy). The volume covered by the 9 Gy isodose of lung was 2.73% {+-} 3.12% higher when calculated by XVMC compared with PB. The largest differences were observed for small lesions circumferentially encompassed by lung tissue. Conclusions: Pencil beam dose calculation overestimates dose to the tumor and underestimates lung volumes exposed to a given dose consistently for 15-MV photons. The degree of difference between XVMC and PB is tumor size and location dependent. Therefore XVMC calculation is helpful to further optimize treatment planning.

  11. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be lower this summer than previously thought. The price for regular gasoline this summer is now expected to average $3.53 a gallon, according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That's down 10 cents from last month's forecast and 16 cents cheaper than last summer. After reaching a weekly peak of $3.78 a gallon in late February, pump prices fell nine weeks in a row to $3.52

  12. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  13. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  14. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  15. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  16. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  17. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  18. FY 2012 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Requirement | Department of Energy Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2012 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement PDF icon FY 2012 DARM Transmittal Letter and Attachment Final.pdf More Documents & Publications FY 2013 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement Real Property Maintenance Reporting Requirement Memorandum (July 13, 2010)

  19. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  20. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  1. FY 2013 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Requirement | Department of Energy Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY 2013 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement PDF icon FY 2013 DARM Transmittal Letter and Attachment Final.pdf More Documents & Publications FY 2012 Real Property Deferred, Actual, and Required Maintenance Reporting Requirement FY_09_DM_RM_AM_Reporting_Memo_and_attachment_072009.pdf Real Property Maintenance Reporting Requirement

  2. ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2007 and Projected 2008 through 2012 " ,"(Megawatts and 2007 ...

  3. ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2006 and Projected 2007 through 2011 " ,"(Megawatts and 2006 ...

  4. ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2011" ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2009 and Projected 2010 through 2014 "...

  5. ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2007 and Projected 2008 through 2012 " ,"(Megawatts and 2007...

  6. ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2010" ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2008 and Projected 2009 through 2013 "...

  7. ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2006 and Projected 2007 through 2011 " ,"(Megawatts and 2006...

  8. ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2007" ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Council Region, " ,"2005 and Projected 2006 through 2010 "...

  9. ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2009 and Projected 2010 through 2014 " ,"(Megawatts and 2009...

  10. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  11. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  12. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  13. A Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    rely on an array of VG forecasts suited to different purposes. Some of the most common types of VG forecasts are defined below: 2 This report is available at no cost from the...

  14. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  15. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  16. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Capabilities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Capabilities Best Practices Handbook Helps Industry Collect and Interpret Solar Resource Data Read about this new comprehensive resource for the solar industry. NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research staff provides expertise in renewable energy measurement and instrumentation. Major capabilities include solar resource measurement, instrument calibration, instrument characterization, solar monitoring training, and standards development and information dissemination. Solar Resource

  17. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  18. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  19. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  20. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  1. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  2. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  3. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), AWS Truepower, and WindLogics in the Great Plains and Western Texas, demonstrated that wind power forecasts can be improved substantially using data collected from tall towers, remote sensors, and other devices, and incorporated into improved forecasting models

  4. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Wavelet-ARIMA (Conference) | SciTech Connect Conference: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction

  5. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting May 1, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Second Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. Since 2008, Argonne National Laboratory and INESC TEC (formerly INESC Porto) have conducted a research project to improve wind power forecasting and better use of forecasting in electricity markets. One of the main results from the project is ARGUS PRIMA (PRediction Intelligent

  6. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical

  7. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  8. Table 5. Domestic Crude Oil Production, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Domestic Crude Oil Production, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million barrels)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,201...

  9. Table 5. Domestic Crude Oil Production, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Domestic Crude Oil Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million barrels) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012...

  10. Table 14b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Nominal Dollars" " (nominal dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,200...

  11. Table 14b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002...

  12. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  13. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  14. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    of Energy 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as estimate to complete (ETC) and estimate at completion (EAC)

  15. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    in Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain April 4, 2014 - 9:47am Addthis On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex

  16. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. PDF icon Report of the External Peer Review Panel More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  17. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Webmaster Use this form to send us your comments and questions, report problems with the site, or ask for help finding information on the site. Please enter your name and email address in the boxes provided, then type your message below. When you are finished, click "Send Message." NOTE: If you enter your e-mail address incorrectly, we will be unable to reply. Your name: Your email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home

  18. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind energy forecasts, and to demonstrate the economic value of these improvements. WFIP Round...

  20. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other stakeholders better forecast when, where, and how much...

  1. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    transition from shallow to deep convection using a dual mass flux boundary layer scheme Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Introduction " " % % &...

  2. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  3. Dose Rate Analysis Capability for Actual Spent Fuel Transportation Cask Contents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Radulescu, Georgeta; Lefebvre, Robert A; Peplow, Douglas E.; Williams, Mark L; Scaglione, John M

    2014-01-01

    The approved contents for a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensed spent nuclear fuel casks are typically based on bounding used nuclear fuel (UNF) characteristics. However, the contents of the UNF canisters currently in storage at independent spent fuel storage installations are considerably heterogeneous in terms of fuel assembly burnup, initial enrichment, decay time, cladding integrity, etc. Used Nuclear Fuel Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF ST&DARDS) is an integrated data and analysis system that facilitates automated cask-specific safety analyses based on actual characteristics of the as-loaded UNF. The UNF-ST&DARDS analysis capabilities have been recently expanded to include dose rate analysis of as-loaded transportation packages. Realistic dose rate values based on actual canister contents may be used in place of bounding dose rate values to support development of repackaging operations procedures, evaluation of radiation-related transportation risks, and communication with stakeholders. This paper describes the UNF-ST&DARDS dose rate analysis methodology based on actual UNF canister contents and presents sample dose rate calculation results.

  4. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  5. Table 4. Total Petroleum Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Petroleum Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million barrels)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",6449.55,6566.35,6643,6723.3,6810.9,6880.25,6956.9,7059.1,7124.8,7205.1,7296.35,7376.65,7446,7522.65,7595.65,7665,7712.45,7774.5 "AEO

  6. Table 6. Petroleum Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Petroleum Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million barrels)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",2934.6,3201.05,3361.65,3504,3657.3,3737.6,3879.95,3993.1,4098.95,4212.1,4303.35,4398.25,4474.9,4540.6,4584.4,4639.15,4668.35,4672 "AEO

  7. FRACTIONAL CRYSTALLIZATION FLOWSHEET TESTS WITH ACTUAL TANK WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HERTING, D.L.

    2007-04-13

    Laboratory-scale flowsheet tests of the fractional crystallization process were conducted with actual tank waste samples in a hot cell at the 2224 Laboratory. The process is designed to separate medium-curie liquid waste into a low-curie stream for feeding to supplemental treatment and a high-curie stream for double-shell tank storage. Separations criteria (for Cesium-137 sulfate and sodium) were exceeded in all three of the flowsheet tests that were performed.

  8. FRACTIONAL CRYSTALLIZATION FLOWSHEET TESTS WITH ACTUAL TANK WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HERTING, D.L.

    2006-10-18

    Laboratory-scale flowsheet tests of the fractional crystallization process were conducted with actual tank waste samples in a hot cell at the 222-S Laboratory. The process is designed to separate medium-curie liquid waste into a low-curie stream for feeding to supplemental treatment and a high-curie stream for double-shell tank storage. Separations criteria (for Cs-137 sulfate, and sodium) were exceeded in all three of the flowsheet tests that were performed.

  9. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  10. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  11. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  12. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  13. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illuminatio...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon...

  14. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Assessment Area," ,"1990-2010 Actual, 2011-2015 Projected" ,"(Thousands of...

  15. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  16. Table 12. Total Coal Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Total Coal Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million short tons) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 920 928 933 938 943 948 953 958 962 967 978 990 987 992 1006 1035 1061 1079 AEO 1995 935 940 941 947 948 951 954 958 963 971 984 992 996 1002 1013 1025 1039 AEO 1996 937 942 954 962 983 990 1004 1017 1027 1033 1046 1067 1070 1071 1074 1082 1087 1094 1103 AEO 1997 948 970 987 1003 1017 1020 1025 1034 1041 1054

  17. Table 13. Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Coal Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million short tons) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 999 1021 1041 1051 1056 1066 1073 1081 1087 1098 1107 1122 1121 1128 1143 1173 1201 1223 AEO 1995 1006 1010 1011 1016 1017 1021 1027 1033 1040 1051 1066 1076 1083 1090 1108 1122 1137 AEO 1996 1037 1044 1041 1045 1061 1070 1086 1100 1112 1121 1135 1156 1161 1167 1173 1184 1190 1203 1215 AEO 1997 1028 1052 1072 1088

  18. Table 15. Total Electricity Sales, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Total Electricity Sales, Projected vs. Actual Projected (billion kilowatt-hours) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 2843 2891 2928 2962 3004 3039 3071 3112 3148 3185 3228 3263 3298 3332 3371 3406 3433 3469 AEO 1995 2951 2967 2983 3026 3058 3085 3108 3134 3166 3204 3248 3285 3321 3357 3396 3433 3475 AEO 1996 2973 2998 3039 3074 3106 3137 3173 3215 3262 3317 3363 3409 3454 3505 3553 3604 3660 3722 3775 AEO 1997 3075

  19. Table 4. Total Petroleum Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Petroleum Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million barrels) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 6450 6566 6643 6723 6811 6880 6957 7059 7125 7205 7296 7377 7446 7523 7596 7665 7712 7775 AEO 1995 6398 6544 6555 6676 6745 6822 6888 6964 7048 7147 7245 7337 7406 7472 7537 7581 7621 AEO 1996 6490 6526 6607 6709 6782 6855 6942 7008 7085 7176 7260 7329 7384 7450 7501 7545 7581 7632 7676 AEO 1997 6636 6694 6826

  20. Table 6. Petroleum Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Petroleum Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million barrels) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 2935 3201 3362 3504 3657 3738 3880 3993 4099 4212 4303 4398 4475 4541 4584 4639 4668 4672 AEO 1995 2953 3157 3281 3489 3610 3741 3818 3920 4000 4103 4208 4303 4362 4420 4442 4460 4460 AEO 1996 3011 3106 3219 3398 3519 3679 3807 3891 3979 4070 4165 4212 4260 4289 4303 4322 4325 4347 4344 AEO 1997 3099 3245 3497

  1. Table 12. Total Coal Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Coal Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million short tons)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",920,928,933,938,943,948,953,958,962,967,978,990,987,992,1006,1035,1061,1079 "AEO 1995",,935,940,941,947,948,951,954,958,963,971,984,992,996,1002,1013,1025,1039 "AEO

  2. Table 14a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Constant Dollars" " (constant dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour in ""dollar year"" specific to each AEO)" ,"AEO $ Year",1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",1992,6.799,6.7999,6.9,6.9,6.9,6.9,7,7,7.1,7.1,7.2,7.2,7.2,7.3,7.3,7.4,7.5,7.6 "AEO

  3. Table 15. Total Electricity Sales, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Electricity Sales, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (billion kilowatt-hours)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",2843,2891,2928,2962,3004,3039,3071,3112,3148,3185,3228,3263,3298,3332,3371,3406,3433,3469 "AEO 1995",,2951,2967,2983,3026,3058,3085,3108,3134,3166,3204,3248,3285,3321,3357,3396,3433,3475 "AEO

  4. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  5. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2010-01-08

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  6. Actual and Estimated Energy Savings Comparison for Deep Energy Retrofits in the Pacific Northwest

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blanchard, Jeremy; Widder, Sarah H.; Giever, Elisabeth L.; Baechler, Michael C.

    2012-10-01

    Seven homes from the Pacific Northwest were selected to evaluate the differences between estimated and actual energy savings achieved from deep energy retrofits. The energy savings resulting from these retrofits were estimated, using energy modeling software, to save at least 30% on a whole-house basis. The modeled pre-retrofit energy use was trued against monthly utility bills. After the retrofits were completed, each of the homes was extensively monitored, with the exception of one home which was monitored pre-retrofit. This work is being conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Department of Energy Building Technologies Program as part of the Building America Program. This work found many discrepancies between actual and estimated energy savings and identified the potential causes for the discrepancies. The differences between actual energy use and modeled energy use also suggest improvements to improve model accuracy. The difference between monthly whole-house actual and estimated energy savings ranged from 75% more energy saved than predicted by the model to 16% less energy saved for all the monitored homes. Similarly, the annual energy savings difference was between 36% and -14%, which was estimated based on existing monitored savings because an entire year of data is not available. Thus, on average, for all six monitored homes the actual energy use is consistently less than estimates, indicating home owners are saving more energy than estimated. The average estimated savings for the eight month monitoring period is 43%, compared to an estimated savings average of 31%. Though this average difference is only 12%, the range of inaccuracies found for specific end-uses is far greater and are the values used to directly estimate energy savings from specific retrofits. Specifically, the monthly post-retrofit energy use differences for specific end-uses (i.e., heating, cooling, hot water, appliances, etc.) ranged from 131% under-predicted to 77% over-predicted by the model with respect to monitored energy use. Many of the discrepancies were associated with occupant behavior which influences energy use, dramatically in some cases, actual versus modeled weather differences, modeling input limitations, and complex homes that are difficult to model. The discrepancy between actual and estimated energy use indicates a need for better modeling tools and assumptions. Despite the best efforts of researchers, the estimated energy savings are too inaccurate to determine reliable paybacks for retrofit projects. While the monitored data allows researchers to understand why these differences exist, it is not cost effective to monitor each home with the level of detail presented here. Therefore an appropriate balance between modeling and monitoring must be determined for more widespread application in retrofit programs and the home performance industry. Recommendations to address these deficiencies include: (1) improved tuning process for pre-retrofit energy use, which currently utilized broad-based monthly utility bills; (2) developing simple occupant-based energy models that better address the many different occupant types and their impact on energy use; (3) incorporating actual weather inputs to increase accuracy of the tuning process, which uses utility bills from specific time period; and (4) developing simple, cost-effective monitoring solutions for improved model tuning.

  7. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  8. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  9. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  10. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  11. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  12. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    The Energy Department will present a live webinar titled "Solar Forecasting Metrics" on Thursday, February 13, from 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. During this ...

  13. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Improving the Accuracy ofSolar Forecasting Funding Opportunity,DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other...

  14. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil ...

  15. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  16. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  17. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  18. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  19. Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations:

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Frequentist and Bayesian analyses (Journal Article) | SciTech Connect SciTech Connect Search Results Journal Article: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Forecasting neutrino masses from combining KATRIN and the CMB observations: Frequentist and Bayesian analyses We present a showcase for deriving bounds on the neutrino masses from laboratory experiments and cosmological

  20. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  1. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  2. Table 10. Natural Gas Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Natural Gas Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (trillion cubic feet)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",2.02,2.4,2.66,2.74,2.81,2.85,2.89,2.93,2.95,2.97,3,3.16,3.31,3.5,3.57,3.63,3.74,3.85 "AEO 1995",,2.46,2.54,2.8,2.87,2.87,2.89,2.9,2.9,2.92,2.95,2.97,3,3.03,3.19,3.35,3.51,3.6 "AEO

  3. Table 16. Total Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (quadrillion Btu)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",88.02,89.53,90.72,91.73,92.71,93.61,94.56,95.73,96.69,97.69,98.89,100,100.79,101.7,102.7,103.6,104.3,105.23 "AEO 1995",,89.21,89.98,90.57,91.91,92.98,93.84,94.61,95.3,96.19,97.18,98.38,99.37,100.3,101.2,102.1,102.9,103.88 "AEO

  4. Table 9. Natural Gas Production, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Natural Gas Production, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (trillion cubic feet)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",17.71,17.68,17.84,18.12,18.25,18.43,18.58,18.93,19.28,19.51,19.8,19.92,20.13,20.18,20.38,20.35,20.16,20.19 "AEO 1995",,18.28,17.98,17.92,18.21,18.63,18.92,19.08,19.2,19.36,19.52,19.75,19.94,20.17,20.28,20.6,20.59,20.88 "AEO

  5. Method and apparatus for distinguishing actual sparse events from sparse event false alarms

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Spalding, Richard E. (Albuquerque, NM); Grotbeck, Carter L. (Albuquerque, NM)

    2000-01-01

    Remote sensing method and apparatus wherein sparse optical events are distinguished from false events. "Ghost" images of actual optical phenomena are generated using an optical beam splitter and optics configured to direct split beams to a single sensor or segmented sensor. True optical signals are distinguished from false signals or noise based on whether the ghost image is presence or absent. The invention obviates the need for dual sensor systems to effect a false target detection capability, thus significantly reducing system complexity and cost.

  6. Table 10. Natural Gas Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Natural Gas Net Imports, Projected vs. Actual Projected (trillion cubic feet) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 2.02 2.40 2.66 2.74 2.81 2.85 2.89 2.93 2.95 2.97 3.00 3.16 3.31 3.50 3.57 3.63 3.74 3.85 AEO 1995 2.46 2.54 2.80 2.87 2.87 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.92 2.95 2.97 3.00 3.03 3.19 3.35 3.51 3.60 AEO 1996 2.56 2.75 2.85 2.88 2.93 2.98 3.02 3.06 3.07 3.09 3.12 3.17 3.23 3.29 3.37 3.46 3.56 3.68 3.79 AEO 1997 2.82 2.96

  7. Table 14a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    a. Average Electricity Prices, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars, cents per kilowatt-hour in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 1992 6.80 6.80 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.10 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.30 7.30 7.40 7.50 7.60 AEO 1995 1993 6.80 6.80 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.70 6.80 6.80 6.90 6.90 6.90 7.00 7.00 7.10 7.10 7.20

  8. Table 16. Total Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Total Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 88.0 89.5 90.7 91.7 92.7 93.6 94.6 95.7 96.7 97.7 98.9 100.0 100.8 101.7 102.7 103.6 104.3 105.2 AEO 1995 89.2 90.0 90.6 91.9 93.0 93.8 94.6 95.3 96.2 97.2 98.4 99.4 100.3 101.2 102.1 102.9 103.9 AEO 1996 90.6 91.3 92.5 93.5 94.3 95.1 95.9 96.9 98.0 99.2 100.4 101.4 102.1 103.1 103.8 104.7 105.5 106.5 107.2

  9. Table 17. Total Delivered Residential Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Total Delivered Residential Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.6 AEO 1995 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 AEO 1996 10.4 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.1

  10. Table 18. Total Delivered Commercial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Total Delivered Commercial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 AEO 1995 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 AEO 1996 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 AEO 1997 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9

  11. Table 19. Total Delivered Industrial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Total Delivered Industrial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.0 AEO 1995 26.2 26.3 26.5 27.0 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.6 AEO 1996 26.5 26.6 27.3 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6

  12. Table 20. Total Delivered Transportation Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Total Delivered Transportation Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 23.6 24.1 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.7 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.5 AEO 1995 23.3 24.0 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 AEO 1996 23.9 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.3 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.3

  13. Table 22. Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Energy Intensity, Projected vs. Actual Projected (quadrillion Btu / $Billion 2005 Chained GDP) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 AEO 1995 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.7 AEO 1996 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 AEO 1997 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3

  14. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $2.3/MMBtu more than the AEO 2006 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  15. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we once again find that the AEO 2007 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. Specifically, the NYMEX-AEO 2007 premium is $0.73/MMBtu levelized over five years. In other words, on average, one would have had to pay $0.73/MMBtu more than the AEO 2007 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming five years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation (or other forms of generation whose costs are not tied to the price of natural gas). Fixed-price generation (like certain forms of renewable generation) obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of five years.

  16. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEXAEO 2005 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$1.11/MMBtu levelized over six years--that we have seen over the last five years. In other words, on average, one would have to pay $1.11/MMBtu more than the AEO 2005 reference case natural gas price forecast in order to lock in natural gas prices over the coming six years and thereby replicate the price stability provided intrinsically by fixed-price renewable generation. Fixed-price renewables obviously need not bear this added cost, and moreover can provide price stability for terms well in excess of six years.

  17. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters. The range is primarily due to uncertainties associated with the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program, including uncertainties regarding retrieval of long-length equipment, scheduling, and tank retrieval technologies.

  18. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  19. ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4 and Projected 2005 through 2009 " ,"(Megawatts and 2004 Base Year)",,,," " ,"Summer Noncoincident Peak Load",,"Contiguous U.S. ","Eastern Power Grid",,,"Texas Power...

  20. ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    3 and Projected 2004 through 2008 " ,"(Megawatts and 2003 Base Year)",,,," " ,"Summer Noncoincident Peak Load",,"Contiguous U.S. ","Eastern Power Grid",,,"Texas Power...

  1. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  2. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  3. ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4 and Projected 2005 through 2009 " ,"(Megawatts and 2004 Base Year)" ,"Winter Noncoincident Peak Load",,"Contiguous U.S. ","Eastern Power Grid",,,"Texas Power Grid","Western...

  4. ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    3 and Projected 2004 through 2008 " ,"(Megawatts and 2003 Base Year)" ,"Winter Noncoincident Peak Load",,"Contiguous U.S. ","Eastern Power Grid",,,"Texas Power Grid","Western...

  5. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  6. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  7. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  8. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am ...

  9. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and uncertainty in wind power and to more efficiently operate power systems with large wind power penetrations. Moreover, in a market environment, the wind power contribution to the generation portofolio becomes important in determining the daily and hourly prices, as variations in the estimated wind power will influence the clearing prices for both energy and operating reserves. With the increasing penetration of wind power, WPF is quickly becoming an important topic for the electric power industry. System operators (SOs), generating companies (GENCOs), and regulators all support efforts to develop better, more reliable and accurate forecasting models. Wind farm owners and operators also benefit from better wind power prediction to support competitive participation in electricity markets against more stable and dispatchable energy sources. In general, WPF can be used for a number of purposes, such as: generation and transmission maintenance planning, determination of operating reserve requirements, unit commitment, economic dispatch, energy storage optimization (e.g., pumped hydro storage), and energy trading. The objective of this report is to review and analyze state-of-the-art WPF models and their application to power systems operations. We first give a detailed description of the methodologies underlying state-of-the-art WPF models. We then look at how WPF can be integrated into power system operations, with specific focus on the unit commitment problem.

  10. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  11. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  12. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Department of Energy PDF icon Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 2

  13. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  14. A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting UCAR logo2.jpg The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through cutting-edge research. APPROACH UCAR value chain.png The team will develop a solar power forecasting system that advances the state of the science through

  15. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

  16. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  17. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  18. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  19. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  20. ,"Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    EIA-411 for 2005" ,"Released: September 26, 2007" ,"Next Update: October 2007" ,"Table 3d. April Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric...

  1. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    . Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2009 and Projected 2010 through 2014" ,"(Thousands of Megawatthours and...

  2. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Update: October 2010" ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2008 and Projected 2009 through 2013 "...

  3. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2006 and Projected 2008 through 2012 " ,"(Thousands of Megawatthours and...

  4. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m wind speed and vertical temperature difference. Ideally, the data assimilation scheme used in the experiments would have been based upon an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) that was similar to the ESA method used to diagnose the Mid-Colombia Basin sensitivity patterns in the previous studies. However, the use of an EnKF system at high resolution is impractical because of the very high computational cost. Thus, it was decided to use the three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation that is less computationally intensive and more economically practical for generating operational forecasts. There are two tasks in the current project effort designed to validate the ESA observational system deployment approach in order to move closer to the overall goal: (1) Perform an Observing System Experiment (OSE) using a data denial approach which is the focus of this task and report; and (2) Conduct a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) for the Mid-Colombia basin region. The results of this task are presented in a separate report. The objective of the OSE task involves validating the ESA-MOOA results from the previous sensitivity studies for the Mid-Columbia Basin by testing the impact of existing meteorological tower measurements on the 0- to 6-hour ahead 80-m wind forecasts at the target locations. The testing of the ESA-MOOA method used a combination of data assimilation techniques and data denial experiments to accomplish the task objective.

  5. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  6. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Victor Diakov Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon

  7. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) Provides information about biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind energy resources. Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center Provides irradiance and meteorological data from stations throughout the United States. Baseline Measurement System (BMS) Provides live solar radiation data from approximately 70

  8. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  9. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, "

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2006 and Projected 2007 through 2011 " ,"(Thousands of Megawatthours and 2006 Base Year)" ,"Net Energy For Load (Annual)",,"Contiguous U.S. ","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,"Texas Power Grid","Western Power Grid" ,"Projected Year Base","Year",,"FRCC","MRO (U.S.) ","NPCC (U.S.)

  10. ,"Table 2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, "

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2b. Noncoincident Winter Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2008 and Projected 2009 through 2013 " ,"(Megawatts and 2008 Base Year)" ,"Winter Noncoincident Peak Load",,"Contiguous U.S. ","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,"Texas Power Grid","Western Power Grid" ,"Projected Year Base","Year",,"FRCC"," MRO (U.S.) ","NPCC (U.S.)

  11. Actual Versus Estimated Utility Factor of a Large Set of Privately Owned Chevrolet Volts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    John Smart; Thomas Bradley; Stephen Schey

    2014-04-01

    In order to determine the overall fuel economy of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), the amount of operation in charge depleting (CD) versus charge sustaining modes must be determined. Mode of operation is predominantly dependent on customer usage of the vehicle and is therefore highly variable. The utility factor (UF) concept was developed to quantify the distance a group of vehicles has traveled or may travel in CD mode. SAE J2841 presents a UF calculation method based on data collected from travel surveys of conventional vehicles. UF estimates have been used in a variety of areas, including the calculation of window sticker fuel economy, policy decisions, and vehicle design determination. The EV Project, a plug-in electric vehicle charging infrastructure demonstration being conducted across the United States, provides the opportunity to determine the real-world UF of a large group of privately owned Chevrolet Volt extended range electric vehicles. Using data collected from Volts enrolled in The EV Project, this paper compares the real-world UF of two groups of Chevrolet Volts to estimated UF's based on J2841. The actual observed fleet utility factors (FUF) for the MY2011/2012 and MY2013 Volt groups studied were observed to be 72% and 74%, respectively. Using the EPA CD ranges, the method prescribed by J2841 estimates a FUF of 65% and 68% for the MY2011/2012 and MY2013 Volt groups, respectively. Volt drivers achieved higher percentages of distance traveled in EV mode for two reasons. First, they had fewer long-distance travel days than drivers in the national travel survey referenced by J2841. Second, they charged more frequently than the J2841 assumption of once per day - drivers of Volts in this study averaged over 1.4 charging events per day. Although actual CD range varied widely as driving conditions varied, the average CD ranges for the two Volt groups studied matched the EPA CD range estimates, so CD range variation did not affect FUF results.

  12. Residential sector end-use forecasting with EPRI-Reeps 2.1: Summary input assumptions and results

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Koomey, J.G.; Brown, R.E.; Richey, R.

    1995-12-01

    This paper describes current and projected future energy use by end-use and fuel for the U.S. residential sector, and assesses which end-uses are growing most rapidly over time. The inputs to this forecast are based on a multi-year data compilation effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. We use the Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) REEPS model, as reconfigured to reflect the latest end-use technology data. Residential primary energy use is expected to grow 0.3% per year between 1995 and 2010, while electricity demand is projected to grow at about 0.7% per year over this period. The number of households is expected to grow at about 0.8% per year, which implies that the overall primary energy intensity per household of the residential sector is declining, and the electricity intensity per household is remaining roughly constant over the forecast period. These relatively low growth rates are dependent on the assumed growth rate for miscellaneous electricity, which is the single largest contributor to demand growth in many recent forecasts.

  13. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  14. Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Technology | Department of Energy Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology Watt-Sun: A Multi-Scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology IBM logo.png As part of this project, new solar forecasting technology will be developed that leverages big data processing, deep machine learning, and cloud modeling integrated in a universal platform with an open architecture. Similar to the Watson computer system, this proposed technology

  15. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  16. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  17. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    The Value of Improved Short- Term Wind Power Forecasting B.-M. Hodge and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Sharp Sharply Focused, LLC M. Margulis and D. Mcreavy Lockheed Martin Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-63175 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

  18. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  19. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  20. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  1. BENCH-SCALE STEAM REFORMING OF ACTUAL TANK 48H WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burket, P; Gene Daniel, G; Charles Nash, C; Carol Jantzen, C; Michael Williams, M

    2008-09-25

    Fluidized Bed Steam Reforming (FBSR) has been demonstrated to be a viable technology to remove >99% of the organics from Tank 48H simulant, to remove >99% of the nitrate/nitrite from Tank 48H simulant, and to form a solid product that is primarily carbonate based. The technology was demonstrated in October of 2006 in the Engineering Scale Test Demonstration Fluidized Bed Steam Reformer1 (ESTD FBSR) at the Hazen Research Inc. (HRI) facility in Golden, CO. The purpose of the Bench-scale Steam Reformer (BSR) testing was to demonstrate that the same reactions occur and the same product is formed when steam reforming actual radioactive Tank 48H waste. The approach used in the current study was to test the BSR with the same Tank 48H simulant and same Erwin coal as was used at the ESTD FBSR under the same operating conditions. This comparison would allow verification that the same chemical reactions occur in both the BSR and ESTD FBSR. Then, actual radioactive Tank 48H material would be steam reformed in the BSR to verify that the actual tank 48H sample reacts the same way chemically as the simulant Tank 48H material. The conclusions from the BSR study and comparison to the ESTD FBSR are the following: (1) A Bench-scale Steam Reforming (BSR) unit was successfully designed and built that: (a) Emulated the chemistry of the ESTD FBSR Denitration Mineralization Reformer (DMR) and Carbon Reduction Reformer (CRR) known collectively as the dual reformer flowsheet. (b) Measured and controlled the off-gas stream. (c) Processed real (radioactive) Tank 48H waste. (d) Met the standards and specifications for radiological testing in the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) Shielded Cells Facility (SCF). (2) Three runs with radioactive Tank 48H material were performed. (3) The Tetraphenylborate (TPB) was destroyed to > 99% for all radioactive Bench-scale tests. (4) The feed nitrate/nitrite was destroyed to >99% for all radioactive BSR tests the same as the ESTD FBSR. (5) The radioactive Tank 48H DMR product was primarily made up of soluble carbonates. The three most abundant species were thermonatrite, [Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3} {center_dot} H{sub 2}O], sodium carbonate, [Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3}], and trona, [Na{sub 3}H(CO{sub 3}){sub 2} {center_dot} 2H{sub 2}O] the same as the ESTD FBSR. (6) Insoluble solids analyzed by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) did not detect insoluble carbonate species. However, they still may be present at levels below 2 wt%, the sensitivity of the XRD methodology. Insoluble solids XRD characterization indicated that various Fe/Ni/Cr/Mn phases are present. These crystalline phases are associated with the insoluble sludge components of Tank 48H slurry and impurities in the Erwin coal ash. The percent insoluble solids, which mainly consist of un-burnt coal and coal ash, in the products were 4 to 11 wt% for the radioactive runs. (7) The Fe{sup +2}/Fe{sub total} REDOX measurements ranged from 0.58 to 1 for the three radioactive Bench-scale tests. REDOX measurements > 0.5 showed a reducing atmosphere was maintained in the DMR indicating that pyrolysis was occurring. (8) Greater than 90% of the radioactivity was captured in the product for all three runs. (9) The collective results from the FBSR simulant tests and the BSR simulant tests indicate that the same chemistry occurs in the two reactors. (10) The collective results from the BSR simulant runs and the BSR radioactive waste runs indicates that the same chemistry occurs in the simulant as in the real waste. The FBSR technology has been proven to destroy the organics and nitrates in the Tank 48H waste and form the anticipated solid carbonate phases as expected.

  2. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  3. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Applications | Department of Energy Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications PDF icon energysavingsforecast14.pdf More Documents & Publications Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications - Report LED ADOPTION REPORT Solid-State Lighting R&D

  4. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  5. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  6. ,"Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, "

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    January 2010" ,"Next Update: October 2010" ,"Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2008 and Projected 2009 through 2010 " ,"(Megawatts and 2008 Base Year)" ,"Projected Monthly Base","Year","Contiguous U.S.","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,"Texas Power Grid","Western Power Grid"

  7. ,"Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Council Region, "

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Council Region, " ,"2005 and Projected 2006 through 2010 " ,"(Megawatts and 2005 Base Year)" ,"Projected Monthly Base","Year","Contiguous U.S.","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,"Texas Power Grid","Western Power Grid"

  8. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  9. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  10. A 24-h forecast of solar irradiance using artificial neural network: Application for performance prediction of a grid-connected PV plant at Trieste, Italy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mellit, Adel; Pavan, Alessandro Massi

    2010-05-15

    Forecasting of solar irradiance is in general significant for planning the operations of power plants which convert renewable energies into electricity. In particular, the possibility to predict the solar irradiance (up to 24 h or even more) can became - with reference to the Grid Connected Photovoltaic Plants (GCPV) - fundamental in making power dispatching plans and - with reference to stand alone and hybrid systems - also a useful reference for improving the control algorithms of charge controllers. In this paper, a practical method for solar irradiance forecast using artificial neural network (ANN) is presented. The proposed Multilayer Perceptron MLP-model makes it possible to forecast the solar irradiance on a base of 24 h using the present values of the mean daily solar irradiance and air temperature. An experimental database of solar irradiance and air temperature data (from July 1st 2008 to May 23rd 2009 and from November 23rd 2009 to January 24th 2010) has been used. The database has been collected in Trieste (latitude 45 40'N, longitude 13 46'E), Italy. In order to check the generalization capability of the MLP-forecaster, a K-fold cross-validation was carried out. The results indicate that the proposed model performs well, while the correlation coefficient is in the range 98-99% for sunny days and 94-96% for cloudy days. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the GCPV plant installed on the rooftop of the municipality of Trieste shows the goodness of the proposed model. (author)

  11. Technique of estimation of actual strength of a gas pipeline section at its deformation in landslide action zone

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tcherni, V.P.

    1996-12-31

    The technique is given which permits determination of stress and strain state (SSS) and estimation of actual strength of a section of a buried main gas pipeline (GP) in the case of its deformation in a landslide action zone. The technique is based on the use of three-dimensional coordinates of axial points of the deformed GP section. These coordinates are received by a full-scale survey. The deformed axis of the surveyed GP section is described by the polynomial. The unknown coefficients of the polynomial can be determined from the boundary conditions at points of connection with contiguous undeformed sections as well as by use of minimization methods in mathematical processing of full-scale survey results. The resulting form of GP section`s axis allows one to determine curvatures and, accordingly, bending moments along all the length of the considered section. The influence of soil resistance to longitudinal displacements of a pipeline is used to determine longitudinal forces. Resulting values of bending moments and axial forces as well as the known value of internal pressure are used to analyze all necessary components of an actual SSS of pipeline section and to estimate its strength by elastic analysis.

  12. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  13. Table 11b. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Nominal Dollars" " (nominal dollars per million Btu)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO

  14. Table 3b. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Nominal Dollars" " (nominal dollars per barrel)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO

  15. "Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Trends, Projected vs. Actual"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Trends, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Real GDP Growth Trend" " (cumulative average percent growth in projected real GDP from first year shown for each AEO)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO

  16. "Table 7b. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    b. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected" "Projected Price in Nominal Dollars" " (nominal dollars per million Btu)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO

  17. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  18. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  19. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting |

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Department of Energy .5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting January 8, 2015 - 12:00pm Addthis The Energy Department today announced $2.5 million for a new project to research the atmospheric processes that generate wind in mountain-valley regions. This in-depth research, conducted by Vaisala of Louisville, Colorado, will be used to improve the wind industry's weather models for short-term wind forecasts, especially for

  20. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar forecasting accuracy by as much

  1. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  2. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  3. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach ...

  4. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  5. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  6. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  7. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  8. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  9. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  10. NOAA Teams Up with Department of Energy & Industry to Improve Wind Forecasts

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The growth of wind-generated power in the United States  is creating greater demand for improved wind forecasts. To address this need, the Department of Energy is working with NOAA and industry on...

  11. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  12. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  13. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  14. Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures | U.S. DOE Office

    Office of Science (SC) Website

    of Science (SC) Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron Star Temperatures Nuclear Physics (NP) NP Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of NP Funding Opportunities Nuclear Science Advisory Committee (NSAC) Community Resources Contact Information Nuclear Physics U.S. Department of Energy SC-26/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 P: (301) 903-3613 F: (301) 903-3833 E: Email Us More Information » 05.01.14 Nuclear Theory Helps Forecast Neutron

  15. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  16. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  17. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  18. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  19. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    and More | Department of Energy Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE Wind Vision, and More February 12, 2014 - 7:38pm Addthis EERE offers webinars to the public on a range of subjects, from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to training for the clean energy workforce. Webinars are free; however, advanced registration is typically required. You can also watch archived webinars

  20. "Table 21. Total Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Projected vs. Actual"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (million metric tons)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",5060,5129.666667,5184.666667,5239.666667,5287.333333,5335,5379,5437.666667,5481.666667,5529.333333,5599,5657.666667,5694.333333,5738.333333,5797,5874,5925.333333,5984 "AEO

  1. Reaction chemistry of nitrogen species in hydrothermal systems: Simple reactions, waste simulants, and actual wastes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dell`Orco, P.; Luan, L.; Proesmans, P.; Wilmanns, E.

    1995-02-01

    Results are presented from hydrothermal reaction systems containing organic components, nitrogen components, and an oxidant. Reaction chemistry observed in simple systems and in simple waste simulants is used to develop a model which presents global nitrogen chemistry in these reactive systems. The global reaction path suggested is then compared with results obtained for the treatment of an actual waste stream containing only C-N-0-H species.

  2. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  3. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.

  4. Making appropriate comparisons of estimated and actual costs of reducing SO{sub 2} emissions under Title IV

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Smith, A.E.

    1998-12-31

    A current sentiment within some parts of the environmental policy community is that market-based regulatory approaches such as emissions trading have proven so effective that actual costs will be only a small fraction of what ex ante cost estimation procedures would project. With this line of reasoning, some have dismissed available cost estimates for major proposed new regulations, such as the new PM and ozone NAAQS, as not meaningful for policy decisions. The most commonly used evidence in support of this position is the experience with SO{sub 2} reductions under Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. In Title IV, a market for emissions allowances has been used to achieve reductions in sulfur dioxides (SO{sub 2}) to ameliorate acid rain. It is commonly asserted today that the cost of achieving the SO{sub 2} emissions reductions has been only one-tenth or less of what Title IV was originally expected to cost. This paper demonstrates that, to the contrary, actual costs for SO{sub 2} reductions remain roughly in line with original estimates associated with Title IV. Erroneous conclusions about Title IV`s costs are due to inappropriate comparisons of a variety of different measures that appear to be comparable only because they are all stated in dollars per ton. Program cost estimates include the total costs of a fully-implemented regulatory program. The very low costs of Title IV that are commonly cited today are neither directly reflective of a fully implemented Title IV, (which is still many years away) nor reflective of all the costs already incurred. Further, a careful review of history finds that the initial cost estimates that many cite were never associated with Title IV. Technically speaking, people are comparing the estimated control costs for the most-costly power plant associated with earlier acid rain regulatory proposals with prices from a market that do not directly reflect total costs.

  5. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  6. TESTING OF THE SPINTEK ROTARY MICROFILTER USING ACTUAL HANFORD WASTE SAMPLES

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    HUBER HJ

    2010-04-13

    The SpinTek rotary microfilter was tested on actual Hanford tank waste. The samples were a composite of archived Tank 241-AN-105 material and a sample representing single-shell tanks (SST). Simulants of the two samples have been used in non-rad test runs at the 222-S laboratory and at Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). The results of these studies are compared in this report. Two different nominal pore sizes for the sintered steel rotating disk filter were chosen: 0.5 and 0.1 {micro}m. The results suggest that the 0.5-{micro}m disk is preferable for Hanford tank waste for the following reasons: (1) The filtrate clarity is within the same range (<<4 ntu for both disks); (2) The filtrate flux is in general higher for the 0.5-{micro}m disk; and (3) The 0.1-{micro}m disk showed a higher likelihood of fouling. The filtrate flux of the actual tank samples is generally in the range of 20-30% compared to the equivalent non-rad tests. The AN-105 slurries performed at about twice the filtrate flux of the SST slurries. The reason for this difference has not been identified. Particle size distributions in both cases are very similar; comparison of the chemical composition is not conclusive. The sole hint towards what material was stuck in the filter pore holes came from the analysis of the dried flakes from the surface of the fouled 0.1-{micro}m disk. A cleaning approach developed by SRNL personnel to deal with fouled disks has been found adaptable when using actual Hanford samples. The use of 1 M nitric acid improved the filtrate flux by approximately two times; using the same simulants as in the non-rad test runs showed that the filtrate flux was restored to 1/2 of its original amount.

  7. Actual versus predicted impacts of three ethanol plants on aquatic and terrestrial resources

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eddlemon, G.K.; Webb, J.W.; Hunsaker, D.B. Jr.; Miller, R.L.

    1993-03-15

    To help reduce US dependence on imported petroleum, Congress passed the Energy Security Act of 1980 (public Law 96-294). This legislation authorized the US Department of Energy (DOE) to promote expansion of the fuel alcohol industry through, among other measures, its Alcohol Fuels Loan Guarantee Program. Under this program, selected proposals for the conversion of plant biomass into fuel-grade ethanol would be granted loan guarantees. of 57 applications submitted for loan guarantees to build and operate ethanol fuel projects under this program, 11 were considered by DOE to have the greatest potential for satisfying DOE`s requirements and goals. In accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), DOE evaluated the potential impacts of proceeding with the Loan Guarantee Program in a programmatic environmental assessment (DOE 1981) that resulted in a finding of no significant impact (FANCY) (47 Federal Register 34, p. 7483). The following year, DOE conducted site-specific environmental assessments (EAs) for 10 of the proposed projects. These F-As predicted no significant environmental impacts from these projects. Eventually, three ethanol fuel projects received loan guarantees and were actually built: the Tennol Energy Company (Tennol; DOE 1982a) facility near Jasper in southeastern Tennessee; the Agrifuels Refining Corporation (Agrifuels; DOE 1985) facility near New Liberia in southern Louisiana; and the New Energy Company of Indiana (NECI; DOE 1982b) facility in South Bend, Indiana. As part of a larger retrospective examination of a wide range of environmental effects of ethanol fuel plants, we compared the actual effects of the three completed plants on aquatic and terrestrial resources with the effects predicted in the NEPA EAs several years earlier. A secondary purpose was to determine: Why were there differences, if any, between actual effects and predictions? How can assessments be improved and impacts reduced?

  8. Table 21. Total Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Total Energy Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Projected vs. Actual Projected (million metric tons) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 5060 5130 5185 5240 5287 5335 5379 5438 5482 5529 5599 5658 5694 5738 5797 5874 5925 5984 AEO 1995 5137 5174 5188 5262 5309 5361 5394 5441 5489 5551 5621 5680 5727 5775 5841 5889 5944 AEO 1996 5182 5224 5295 5355 5417 5464 5525 5589 5660 5735 5812 5879 5925 5981 6030 6087 6142 6203

  9. Table 3a. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Constant Dollars" " (constant dollars per barrel in ""dollar year"" specific to each AEO)" ,"AEO $ Year",1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",1992,16.69,16.42999,16.9899,17.66,18.28,19.0599,19.89,20.72,21.65,22.61,23.51,24.29,24.9,25.6,26.3,27,27.64,28.16

  10. ACTUAL WASTE TESTING OF GYCOLATE IMPACTS ON THE SRS TANK FARM

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martino, C.

    2014-05-28

    Glycolic acid is being studied as a replacement for formic acid in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) feed preparation process. After implementation, the recycle stream from DWPF back to the high-level waste Tank Farm will contain soluble sodium glycolate. Most of the potential impacts of glycolate in the Tank Farm were addressed via a literature review and simulant testing, but several outstanding issues remained. This report documents the actual-waste tests to determine the impacts of glycolate on storage and evaporation of Savannah River Site high-level waste. The objectives of this study are to address the following: ? Determine the extent to which sludge constituents (Pu, U, Fe, etc.) dissolve (the solubility of sludge constituents) in the glycolate-containing 2H-evaporator feed. ? Determine the impact of glycolate on the sorption of fissile (Pu, U, etc.) components onto sodium aluminosilicate solids. The first objective was accomplished through actual-waste testing using Tank 43H and 38H supernatant and Tank 51H sludge at Tank Farm storage conditions. The second objective was accomplished by contacting actual 2H-evaporator scale with the products from the testing for the first objective. There is no anticipated impact of up to 10 g/L of glycolate in DWPF recycle to the Tank Farm on tank waste component solubilities as investigated in this test. Most components were not influenced by glycolate during solubility tests, including major components such as aluminum, sodium, and most salt anions. There was potentially a slight increase in soluble iron with added glycolate, but the soluble iron concentration remained so low (on the order of 10 mg/L) as to not impact the iron to fissile ratio in sludge. Uranium and plutonium appear to have been supersaturated in 2H-evaporator feed solution mixture used for this testing. As a result, there was a reduction of soluble uranium and plutonium as a function of time. The change in soluble uranium concentration was independent of added glycolate concentration. The change in soluble plutonium content was dependent on the added glycolate concentration, with higher levels of glycolate (5 g/L and 10 g/L) appearing to suppress the plutonium solubility. The inclusion of glycolate did not change the dissolution of or sorption onto actual-waste 2H-evaporator pot scale to an extent that will impact Tank Farm storage and concentration. The effects that were noted involved dissolution of components from evaporator scale and precipitation of components onto evaporator scale that were independent of the level of added glycolate.

  11. "Table 19. Total Delivered Industrial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Delivered Industrial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (quadrillion Btu)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",25.43,25.904,26.303,26.659,26.974,27.062,26.755,26.598,26.908,27.228,27.668,28.068,28.348,28.668,29.068,29.398,29.688,30.008 "AEO

  12. ,"Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, "

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    6" ,"Released: February 7, 2008" ,"Next Update: October 2008" ,"Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2006 and Projected 2007 through 2011 " ,"(Megawatts and 2006 Base Year)" ,"Projected Monthly Base","Year","Contiguous U.S.","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,"Texas Power Grid","Western Power Grid"

  13. ,"Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, "

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    7" ,"Released: February 2009" ,"Next Update: October 2009" ,"Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Corporation Region, " ,"2007 and Projected 2008 through 2009 " ,"(Megawatts and 2007 Base Year)" ,"Projected Monthly Base","Year","Contiguous U.S.","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,"Texas Power Grid","Western Power Grid"

  14. PERFORMANCE TESTING OF THE NEXT-GENERATION CSSX SOLVENT WITH ACTUAL SRS TANK WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pierce, R.; Peters, T.; Crowder, M.; Fink, S.

    2011-11-01

    Efforts are underway to qualify the Next-Generation Solvent for the Caustic Side Solvent Extraction (CSSX) process. Researchers at multiple national laboratories have been involved in this effort. As part of the effort to qualify the solvent extraction system at the Savannah River Site (SRS), SRNL performed a number of tests at various scales. First, SRNL completed a series of batch equilibrium, or Extraction-Scrub-Strip (ESS), tests. These tests used {approx}30 mL of Next-Generation Solvent and either actual SRS tank waste, or waste simulant solutions. The results from these cesium mass transfer tests were used to predict solvent behavior under a number of conditions. At a larger scale, SRNL assembled 12 stages of 2-cm (diameter) centrifugal contactors. This rack of contactors is structurally similar to one tested in 2001 during the demonstration of the baseline CSSX process. Assembly and mechanical testing found no issues. SRNL performed a nonradiological test using 35 L of cesium-spiked caustic waste simulant and 39 L of actual tank waste. Test results are discussed; particularly those related to the effectiveness of extraction.

  15. Table 11a. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    a. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars per million Btu in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 1992 1.47 1.48 1.53 1.57 1.58 1.57 1.61 1.63 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.72 1.70 1.76 1.79 1.81 1.88 1.92 AEO 1995 1993 1.39 1.39 1.38 1.40 1.40 1.39 1.39 1.42 1.41 1.43 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.47

  16. Table 3a. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars per barrel in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 1992 16.69 16.43 16.99 17.66 18.28 19.06 19.89 20.72 21.65 22.61 23.51 24.29 24.90 25.60 26.30 27.00 27.64 28.16 AEO 1995 1993 14.90 16.41 16.90 17.45 18.00 18.53 19.13 19.65 20.16 20.63 21.08

  17. Table 3b. Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars per barrel) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 17.06 17.21 18.24 19.43 20.64 22.12 23.76 25.52 27.51 29.67 31.86 34.00 36.05 38.36 40.78 43.29 45.88 48.37 AEO 1995 15.24 17.27 18.23 19.26 20.39 21.59 22.97 24.33 25.79 27.27 28.82 30.38 32.14 33.89 35.85 37.97 40.28 AEO 1996 17.16 17.74 18.59 19.72

  18. Table 7a. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    a. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected Projected Price in Constant Dollars (constant dollars per million Btu in "dollar year" specific to each AEO) AEO $ Year 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 1992 2.44 2.48 2.57 2.66 2.70 2.79 2.84 2.92 3.04 3.16 3.25 3.36 3.51 3.60 3.77 3.91 3.97 4.08 AEO 1995 1993 2.39 2.48 2.42 2.45 2.45 2.53 2.59 2.78 2.91 3.10 3.24 3.38 3.47 3.53 3.61 3.68

  19. Table 11a. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected Price in Constant Dollars" " (constant dollars per million Btu in ""dollar year"" specific to each AEO)" ,"AEO $ Year",1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",1992,1.4699,1.4799,1.53,1.57,1.58,1.57,1.61,1.63,1.68,1.69,1.7,1.72,1.7,1.76,1.79,1.81,1.88,1.92 "AEO

  20. "Table 17. Total Delivered Residential Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Delivered Residential Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (quadrillion Btu)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",10.31,10.36,10.36,10.37,10.38,10.4,10.4,10.41,10.43,10.43,10.44,10.45,10.46,10.49,10.51,10.53,10.56,10.6 "AEO 1995",,10.96,10.8,10.81,10.81,10.79,10.77,10.75,10.73,10.72,10.7,10.7,10.69,10.7,10.72,10.75,10.8,10.85 "AEO

  1. "Table 18. Total Delivered Commercial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Delivered Commercial Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (quadrillion Btu)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",6.82,6.87,6.94,7,7.06,7.13,7.16,7.22,7.27,7.32,7.36,7.38,7.41,7.45,7.47,7.5,7.51,7.55 "AEO 1995",,6.94,6.9,6.95,6.99,7.02,7.05,7.08,7.09,7.11,7.13,7.15,7.17,7.19,7.22,7.26,7.3,7.34 "AEO

  2. "Table 20. Total Delivered Transportation Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    Total Delivered Transportation Energy Consumption, Projected vs. Actual" "Projected" " (quadrillion Btu)" ,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",23.62,24.08,24.45,24.72,25.06,25.38,25.74,26.16,26.49,26.85,27.23,27.55,27.91,28.26,28.61,28.92,29.18,29.5 "AEO 1995",,23.26,24.01,24.18,24.69,25.11,25.5,25.86,26.15,26.5,26.88,27.28,27.66,27.99,28.25,28.51,28.72,28.94 "AEO

  3. "Table 7a. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    a. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected" "Projected Price in Constant Dollars" " (constant dollars per million Btu in ""dollar year"" specific to each AEO)" ,"AEO $ Year",1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013 "AEO 1994",1992,2.44,2.48,2.57,2.66,2.7,2.79,2.84,2.92,3.04,3.16,3.25,3.36,3.51,3.6,3.77,3.91,3.97,4.08 "AEO

  4. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  5. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below $3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below $3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular gasoline should average $2.33 per gallon this year. The price of gasoline increased in early February after falling for 17 weeks in a row. But gasoline prices will continue to remain low in 2015 when compared with pump prices in recent

  6. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  7. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  8. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  9. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  10. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  11. Predicted Versus Actual Savings for a Low-Rise Multifamily Retrofit in Boulder, Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arena, L.; Williamson, J.

    2013-11-01

    To determine the most cost-effective methods of improving buildings, accurate analysis and prediction of the energy use of existing buildings is essential. However, multiple studies confirm that analysis methods tend to over-predict energy use in poorly insulated, leaky homes and thus, the savings associated with improving those homes. In NREL's report titled 'Assessing and Improving the Accuracy of Energy Analysis of Residential Buildings,' researchers propose a method for improving the accuracy of residential energy analysis methods. A key step in this process involves the comparisons of predicted versus metered energy use and savings. In support of this research need, CARB evaluated the retrofit of a multifamily building in Boulder, CO. The updated property is a 37 unit, 2 story apartment complex built in 1950, which underwent renovations in early 2009 to bring it into compliance with Boulder, CO's SmartRegs ordinance. Goals of the study were to: 1) evaluate predicted versus actual savings due to the improvements, 2) identify areas where the modeling assumptions may need to be changed, and 3) determine common changes made by renters that would negatively impact energy savings. In this study, CARB seeks to improve the accuracy of modeling software while assessing retrofit measures to specifically determine which are most effective for large multifamily complexes in the cold climate region. Other issues that were investigated include the effects of improving building efficiency on tenant comfort, the impact on tenant turnover rates, and the potential market barriers for this type of community scale project.

  12. Predicted Versus Actual Savings for a Low-Rise Multifamily Retrofit in Boulder, Colorado

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Arena, L.; Williamson, J.

    2013-11-01

    To determine the most cost-effective methods of improving buildings, accurate analysis and prediction of the energy use of existing buildings is essential. However, multiple studies confirm that analysis methods tend to over-predict energy use in poorly insulated, leaky homes and thus, the savings associated with improving those homes. In this project, the Building America CARB team evaluated the retrofit of a multifamily building in Boulder, CO. The updated property is a 37 unit, 2 story apartment complex built in 1950, which underwent renovations in early 2009 to bring it into compliance with Boulder, CO's SmartRegs ordinance. Goals of the study were to: 1) evaluate predicted versus actual savings due to the improvements, 2) identify areas where the modeling assumptions may need to be changed, and 3) determine common changes made by renters that would negatively impact energy savings. Other issues that were investigated include the effects of improving building efficiency on tenant comfort, the impact on tenant turnover rates, and the potential market barriers for this type of community scale project.

  13. FRACTIONAL CRYSTALLIZATION LABORATORY TESTING FOR INCLUSION & COPRECIPITATION WITH ACTUAL TANK WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    WARRANT, R.W.

    2006-12-11

    Fractional crystallization is being considered as a pretreatment method to support supplemental treatment of retrieved single-shell tank (SST) saltcake waste at the Hanford Site. The goal of the fractional crystallization process is to optimize the separation of the radioactivity (radionuclides) from the saltcake waste and send it to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant and send the bulk of the saltcake to the supplemental treatment plant (bulk vitrification). The primary factors that influence the separation efficiency are (1) solid/liquid separation efficiency, (2) contaminant inclusions, and (3) co-precipitation. This is a report of testing for factors (2) and (3) with actual tank waste samples. For the purposes of this report, contaminant inclusions are defined as the inclusion of supernatant, containing contaminating radionuclides, in a pocket within the precipitating saltcake crystals. Co-precipitation is defined as the simultaneous precipitation of a saltcake crystal with a contaminating radionuclide. These two factors were tested for various potential fractional crystallization product salts by spiking the composite tank waste samples (SST Early or SST Late, external letter CH2M-0600248, ''Preparation of Composite Tank Waste Samples for ME-21 Project'') with the desired target salt and then evaporating to precipitate that salt. SST Early represents the typical composition of dissolved saltcake early in the retrieval process, and SST Late represents the typical composition during the later stages of retrieval.

  14. Table 11b. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    b. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Projected vs. Actual Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars per million Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 1.50 1.55 1.64 1.73 1.78 1.82 1.92 2.01 2.13 2.22 2.30 2.41 2.46 2.64 2.78 2.90 3.12 3.30 AEO 1995 1.42 1.46 1.49 1.55 1.59 1.62 1.67 1.76 1.80 1.89 1.97 2.05 2.13 2.21 2.28 2.38 2.50 AEO 1996 1.35 1.35 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.46 1.50 1.56 1.62 1.67 1.75

  15. Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Trends, Projected vs. Actual

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Trends, Projected vs. Actual Projected Real GDP Growth Trend (cumulative average percent growth in projected real GDP from first year shown for each AEO) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 3.09 3.15 2.86 2.78 2.73 2.65 2.62 2.60 2.56 2.53 2.52 2.49 2.45 2.41 2.40 2.36 2.32 2.29 AEO 1995 3.66 2.77 2.53 2.71 2.67 2.61 2.55 2.48 2.46 2.45 2.45 2.43 2.39 2.35 2.31 2.27 2.24 AEO 1996 2.61

  16. Table 7b. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    b. Natural Gas Price, Electric Power Sector, Actual vs. Projected Projected Price in Nominal Dollars (nominal dollars per million Btu) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AEO 1994 2.49 2.60 2.76 2.93 3.05 3.24 3.39 3.60 3.86 4.15 4.40 4.70 5.08 5.39 5.85 6.27 6.59 7.01 AEO 1995 2.44 2.61 2.61 2.70 2.78 2.95 3.11 3.44 3.72 4.10 4.43 4.78 5.07 5.33 5.64 5.95 6.23 AEO 1996 2.08 2.19 2.20 2.39 2.47 2.54 2.64 2.74 2.84 2.95 3.09

  17. Relationship between self-reported activity levels and actual heart rates in teenagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Terblanche, A.P.S.; Ozkaynak, H.; Spengler, J.D.; Butler, D.A. )

    1991-08-01

    A study was designed to explore the relationship between self-reported activity levels and actual heart rate (HR) as measured by a portable heart rate monitor. Twenty-two teenagers (8 boys, 14 girls, median age of 16) from Watertown High School, Massachusetts participated in this pilot study which involved continuous monitoring of HR during normal daily activities and simultaneous completion of a time-activity diary. There were 31 successful monitoring sessions ranging from 1.9 to 17 hours with a median monitoring time of 12.6 hours. Four unsuccessful monitoring sessions were experienced due to equipment failure. Apart from participant cooperation, the single most important factor affecting the feasibility of continuous heart rate monitoring was found to be equipment design. Th overall average heart rate observed was 88.4 bpm (SD = 24.3). An individual's correlation coefficient for perceived activity level (documented in half-hour intervals) and heart rate (averaged over the half-hour intervals) varied from 0.24 to 0.89. More than half of the correlation coefficients were below 0.40. There was a significant difference between average heart rate for time spent indoors (90 bpm) versus outdoors (103 bpm) even after correcting for sleeping time. It is concluded that continuous HR monitoring with simultaneous completion of a time/activity dairy is feasible and is a promising source of information for studies on exposure to air pollutants.

  18. ACTUAL-WASTE TESTING OF ULTRAVIOLET LIGHT TO AUGMENT THE ENHANCED CHEMICAL CLEANING OF SRS SLUDGE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martino, C.; King, W.; Ketusky, E.

    2012-07-10

    In support of Savannah River Site (SRS) tank closure efforts, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) conducted Real Waste Testing (RWT) to evaluate Enhanced Chemical Cleaning (ECC), an alternative to the baseline 8 wt% oxalic acid (OA) chemical cleaning technology for tank sludge heel removal. ECC utilizes a more dilute OA solution (2 wt%) and an oxalate destruction technology using ozonolysis with or without the application of ultraviolet (UV) light. SRNL conducted tests of the ECC process using actual SRS waste material from Tanks 5F and 12H. The previous phase of testing involved testing of all phases of the ECC process (sludge dissolution, OA decomposition, product evaporation, and deposition tank storage) but did not involve the use of UV light in OA decomposition. The new phase of testing documented in this report focused on the use of UV light to assist OA decomposition, but involved only the OA decomposition and deposition tank portions of the process. Compared with the previous testing at analogous conditions without UV light, OA decomposition with the use of UV light generally reduced time required to reach the target of <100 mg/L oxalate. This effect was the most pronounced during the initial part of the decomposition batches, when pH was <4. For the later stages of each OA decomposition batch, the increase in OA decomposition rate with use of the UV light appeared to be minimal. Testing of the deposition tank storage of the ECC product resulted in analogous soluble concentrations regardless of the use or non-use of UV light in the ECC reactor.

  19. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  20. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  1. STEAM REFORMING TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATION FOR THE DESTRUCTION OF ORGANICS ON ACTUAL DOE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE TANK 48H WASTE 9138

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Burket, P

    2009-02-24

    This paper describes the design of the Bench-scale Steam Reformer (BSR); a processing unit for demonstrating steam reforming technology on actual radioactive waste [1]. It describes the operating conditions of the unit used for processing a sample of Savannah River Site (SRS) Tank 48H waste. Finally, it compares the results from processing the actual waste in the BSR to processing simulant waste in the BSR to processing simulant waste in a large pilot scale unit, the Fluidized Bed Steam Reformer (FBSR), operated at Hazen Research Inc. in Golden, CO. The purpose of this work was to prove that the actual waste reacted in the same manner as the simulant waste in order to validate the work performed in the pilot scale unit which could only use simulant waste.

  2. Final Report. LAW Glass Formulation to Support AP-101 Actual Waste Testing, VSL-03R3470-2, Rev. 0

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Muller, I. S.; Pegg, I. L.; Rielley, Elizabeth; Carranza, Isidro; Hight, Kenneth; Lai, Shan-Tao T.; Mooers, Cavin; Bazemore, Gina; Cecil, Richard; Kruger, Albert A.

    2015-06-22

    The main objective of the work was to develop and select a glass formulation for vitrification testing of the actual waste sample of LAW AP-101 at Battelle - Pacific Northwest Division (PNWD). Other objectives of the work included preparation and characterization of glasses to demonstrate compliance with contract and processing requirements, evaluation of the ability to achieve waste loading requirements, testing to demonstrate compatibility of the glass melts with melter materials of construction, comparison of the properties of simulant and actual waste glasses, and identification of glass formulation issues with respect to contract specifications and processing requirements.

  3. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  4. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energys Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nations low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energys Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  5. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Are there Gains from Pooling Real- Time Oil Price Forecasts? Christiane Baumeister, Bank of Canada Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan Thomas K. Lee, U.S. Energy Information Administration February 12, 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy

  6. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Slope of Alaska Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Boyle, Jim Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Fiorino, Michael DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Hnilo, Justin DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Phillips, Thomas PCMDI/LLNL Potter, Gerald Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Category:

  7. Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    5060 Sargent & Lundy LLC Consulting Group Chicago, Illinois Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 NREL is a U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory Operated by Midwest Research Institute * Battelle * Bechtel Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337 October 2003 * NREL/SR-550-35060 Executive Summary: Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower

  8. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho and Oregon

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy and the electricity industry have jointly invested over $7.9 billion in 99 cost-shared Smart Grid Investment Grant projects to modernize the electric grid, strengthen cybersecurity, improve interoperability, and collect an unprecedented level of data on smart grid and customer operations. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company (IPC)

  9. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    3 and Projected 2004 through 2008 " ,"(Thousands of Megawatthours and 2003 Base Year)" ,"Net Energy For Load (Annual)",,"Contiguous U.S. ","Eastern Power Grid",,,"Texas Power...

  10. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    4 and Projected 2005 through 2009 " ,"(Thousands of Megawatthours and 2004 Base Year)" ,"Net Energy For Load (Annual)",,"Contiguous U.S. ","Eastern Power Grid",,,"Texas Power...

  11. ,"Table 1. Net Energy For Load, Actual and Projected by North...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2005 and Projected 2006 through 2010 " ,"(Thousands of Megawatthours and 2005 Base Year)" ,"Net Energy For Load (Annual)",,"Contiguous U.S. ","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,"Texas Power...

  12. New Tools for Forecasting Old Physics at the LHC

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    None

    2011-10-06

    For the LHC to uncover many types of new physics, the "old physics" produced by the Standard Model must be understood very well. For decades, the central theoretical tool for this job was the Feynman diagram expansion. However, Feynman diagrams are just too slow, even on fast computers, to allow adequate precision for complicated LHC events with many jets in the final state. Such events are already visible in the initial LHC data. Over the past few years, alternative methods to Feynman diagrams have come to fruition. These new "on-shell" methods are based on the old principles of unitarity and factorization. They can be much more efficient because they exploit the underlying simplicity of scattering amplitudes, and recycle lower-loop information. I will describe how and why these methods work, and present some of the recent state-of-the-art results that have been obtained with them.

  13. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  14. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  15. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  16. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  17. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  18. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  19. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast February 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | STEO Supplement: Uncertainties in the Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data,

  1. Forecast of Standard Atomic Weights for the Mononuclidic Elements 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Holden, N.E.; Holden, N.; Holden,N.E.

    2011-07-27

    In this short report, I will provide an early warning about potential changes to the standard atomic weight values for the twenty mononuclidic and the so-called pseudo-mononuclidic ({sup 232}Th and {sup 231}Pa) chemical elements due to the estimated changes in the mass values to be published in the next Atomic Mass Tables within the next two years. There have been many new measurements of atomic masses, since the last published Atomic Mass Table. The Atomic Mass Data Center has released an unpublished version of the present status of the atomic mass values as a private communication. We can not update the Standard Atomic Weight Table at this time based on these unpublished values but we can anticipate how many changes are probably going to be expected in the next few years on the basis of the forthcoming publication of the Atomic Mass Table. I will briefly discuss the procedures that the Atomic Weights Commission used in deriving the recommended Standard Atomic Weight values and their uncertainties from the atomic mass values. I will also discuss some concern raised about a proposed change in the definition of the mole. The definition of the mole is now connected directly to the mass of a {sup 12}C isotope (which is defined as 12 exactly) and to the kilogram. A change in the definition of the mole will probably impact the mass of {sup 12}C.

  2. Ion exchange removal of cesium from simulated and actual supernate from Hanford tanks 241-SY-101 and 241-SY-103

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, G.N.; Bontha, J.R.; Carlson, C.D.

    1995-09-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), in conjunction with the Process Chemistry and Statistics Section of Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC), conducted this study as part of the Supernatant Treatment Development Task for the Initial Pretreatment Module (IPM) Applied Engineering Project. The study assesses the performance of the CS-100 ion exchange material for removing cesium from simulated and actual alkaline supernate from Hanford tanks 241-SY-101 and 241-SY-103. The objective of these experiments is to compare the cesium ion exchange loading and elution profiles of actual and simulated wastes. Specific experimental objectives include (1) demonstration of decontamination factors (DF) for cesium removal, 92) verification of simulant performance, (3) investigation of waste/exchanger chemistry, and (4) determination of the radionuclide content of the regenerated CS-100 resin prior to disposal.

  3. Sugars Can Actually Be Good For Your Health (LBNL Science at the Theater)

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Bertozzi, Carolyn

    2011-10-04

    Like peanut M&Ms, all cells are coated with sugars but the functions of these sugar coatings were a mystery until very recently. This presentation will highlight recent fascinating discoveries regarding why cells are coated with sugars, as well as new tools for cancer detection that take advantage of the cells sugar coating. Professor Bertozzis lab focuses on profiling changes in cell surface glycosylation associated with cancer, inflammation and bacterial infection, and exploiting this information for development of diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. In addition, her group develops nanoscience-based technologies for probing cell function and for medical diagnostics.

  4. DESTRUCTION OF TETRAPHENYLBORATE IN TANK 48H USING WET AIR OXIDATION BATCH BENCH SCALE AUTOCLAVE TESTING WITH ACTUAL RADIOACTIVE TANK 48H WASTE

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Adu-Wusu, K; Paul Burket, P

    2009-03-31

    Wet Air Oxidation (WAO) is one of the two technologies being considered for the destruction of Tetraphenylborate (TPB) in Tank 48H. Batch bench-scale autoclave testing with radioactive (actual) Tank 48H waste is among the tests required in the WAO Technology Maturation Plan. The goal of the autoclave testing is to validate that the simulant being used for extensive WAO vendor testing adequately represents the Tank 48H waste. The test objective was to demonstrate comparable test results when running simulated waste and real waste under similar test conditions. Specifically: (1) Confirm the TPB destruction efficiency and rate (same reaction times) obtained from comparable simulant tests, (2) Determine the destruction efficiency of other organics including biphenyl, (3) Identify and quantify the reaction byproducts, and (4) Determine off-gas composition. Batch bench-scale stirred autoclave tests were conducted with simulated and actual Tank 48H wastes at SRNL. Experimental conditions were chosen based on continuous-flow pilot-scale simulant testing performed at Siemens Water Technologies Corporation (SWT) in Rothschild, Wisconsin. The following items were demonstrated as a result of this testing. (1) Tetraphenylborate was destroyed to below detection limits during the 1-hour reaction time at 280 C. Destruction efficiency of TPB was > 99.997%. (2) Other organics (TPB associated compounds), except biphenyl, were destroyed to below their respective detection limits. Biphenyl was partially destroyed in the process, mainly due to its propensity to reside in the vapor phase during the WAO reaction. Biphenyl is expected to be removed in the gas phase during the actual process, which is a continuous-flow system. (3) Reaction byproducts, remnants of MST, and the PUREX sludge, were characterized in this work. Radioactive species, such as Pu, Sr-90 and Cs-137 were quantified in the filtrate and slurry samples. Notably, Cs-137, boron and potassium were shown as soluble as a result of the WAO reaction. (4) Off-gas composition was measured in the resulting gas phase from the reaction. Benzene and hydrogen were formed during the reaction, but they were reasonably low in the off-gas at 0.096 and 0.0063 vol% respectively. Considering the consistency in replicating similar test results with simulated waste and Tank 48H waste under similar test conditions, the results confirm the validity of the simulant for other WAO test conditions.

  5. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  6. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in 2016. U.S. crude oil production is still expected to average 9.2 million barrels per day this year. That's up half a million barrels per day from last year and the highest output level in more than four decades. A substantial part of the year-over-year increase reflects rapid production growth throughout 2014.

  7. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ? We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ? The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ? At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ? At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ? At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term.

  8. Analysis of Actual Operating Conditions of an Off-grid Solid Oxide Fuel Cell

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dennis Witmer; Thomas Johnson; Jack Schmid

    2008-12-31

    Fuel cells have been proposed as ideal replacements for other technologies in remote locations such as Rural Alaska. A number of suppliers have developed systems that might be applicable in these locations, but there are several requirements that must be met before they can be deployed: they must be able to operate on portable fuels, and be able to operate with little operator assistance for long periods of time. This project was intended to demonstrate the operation of a 5 kW fuel cell on propane at a remote site (defined as one without access to grid power, internet, or cell phone, but on the road system). A fuel cell was purchased by the National Park Service for installation in their newly constructed visitor center at Exit Glacier in the Kenai Fjords National Park. The DOE participation in this project as initially scoped was for independent verification of the operation of this demonstration. This project met with mixed success. The fuel cell has operated over 6 seasons at the facility with varying degrees of success, with one very good run of about 1049 hours late in the summer of 2006, but in general the operation has been below expectations. There have been numerous stack failures, the efficiency of electrical generation has been lower than expected, and the field support effort required has been far higher than expected. Based on the results to date, it appears that this technology has not developed to the point where demonstrations in off road sites are justified.

  9. Summary of available waste forecast data for the Environmental Restoration Program at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    This report identifies patterns of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Restoration (ER) waste generation that are predicted by the current ER Waste Generation Forecast data base. It compares the waste volumes to be generated with the waste management capabilities of current and proposed treatment, storage, or disposal (TSD) facilities. The scope of this report is limited to wastes generated during activities funded by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration (EM-40) and excludes wastes from the decontamination and decommissioning of facilities. Significant quantities of these wastes are expected to be generated during ER activities. This report has been developed as a management tool supporting communication and coordination of waste management activities at ORNL. It summarizes the available data for waste that will be generated as a result of remediation activities under the direction of the U.S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge Operations Office and identifies areas requiring continued waste management planning and coordination. Based on the available data, it is evident that most remedial action wastes leaving the area of contamination can be managed adequately with existing and planned ORR waste management facilities if attention is given to waste generation scheduling and the physical limitations of particular TSD facilities. Limited use of off-site commercial TSD facilities is anticipated, provided the affected waste streams can be shown to satisfy the requirements of the performance objective for certification of non-radioactive hazardous waste and the waste acceptance criteria of the off-site facilities. Ongoing waste characterization will be required to determine the most appropriate TSD facility for each waste stream.

  10. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  11. Department of Energy award DE-SC0004164 Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reno Harnish

    2011-08-16

    The Climate and National Security: Securing Better Forecasts symposium was attended by senior policy makers and distinguished scientists. The juxtaposition of these communities was creative and fruitful. They acknowledged they were speaking past each other. Scientists were urged to tell policy makers about even improbable outcomes while articulating clearly the uncertainties around the outcomes. As one policy maker put it, we are accustomed to making these types of decisions. These points were captured clearly in an article that appeared on the New York Times website and can be found with other conference materials most easily on our website, www.scripps.ucsd.edu/cens/. The symposium, generously supported by the NOAA/JIMO, benefitted the public by promoting scientifically informed decision making and by the transmission of objective information regarding climate change and national security.

  12. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  13. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  14. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  15. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  16. HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    HONEYWELL - KANSAS CITY PLANT FISCAL YEARS 2009 THRU 2015 SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAM RESULTS & FORECAST CATEGORY Total Procurement Total SB Small Disad. Bus Woman-Owned SB Hub-Zone SB Veteran-Owned SB Service Disabled Vet. SB FY 2009 Dollars Goal (projected) $183,949,920 $82,690,000 $4,550,000 $8,829,596 $3,370,000 $5,025,000 $460,000 FY 2009 Dollars Accomplished $143,846,731 $68,174,398 $9,247,214 $11,333,905 $4,979,858 $6,713,791 $1,612,136 FY 2009 % Goal 45.0% 2.5% 4.8% 1.8% 2.7% 0.25% FY

  17. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  18. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  19. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  20. Demand forecasting and revenue requirements, with implications for consideration in British Columbia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Acton, J.P.

    1983-05-01

    This paper was filed as an exhibit on behalf of The Consumers' Association of Canada (B.C. Branch), The Federated Anti-Poverty Groups of B.C., The Sierra Club of Western Canada, and the B.C. Old Age Pensioners' Organization. It was subjected to cross-examination on October 29, 1982, during Phase I of the hearings. The Utilities Commission had designated Phase I for consideration of (1) demand, (2) assets in service, (3) revenue requirements excluding return, and (4) financing and capital requirements. This paper presents a general discussion of the elements of a rate structure and their relationship to the demand for electricity, a systematic review of some 50 empirical studies of the demand for electricity as a function of price and other factors by the three principal classes of customers, and a discussion of the notion of revenue requirements. The paper should be of interest to utility regulators, rate specialists, and forecasters for its review of demand models and to academics concerned with the study of energy demand.

  1. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  2. Analysis of Energy Efficiency Program Impacts Based on Program Spending

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)

    Energy Efficiency Program Impacts Based on Program Spending May 2015 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of Energy Efficiency Program Impacts Based on Program Spending i This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of

  3. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  4. ,"Table 2a. Noncoincident Summer Peak Load, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Council Region, "

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    2005 and Projected 2006 through 2010 " ,"(Megawatts and 2005 Base Year)" ,"Summer Noncoincident Peak Load",,"Contiguous U.S. ","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,"Texas Power Grid","Western Power Grid" ,"Projected Year Base","Year",,"FRCC","MRO (U.S.) ","NPCC (U.S.) ","RFC","SERC","SPP","ERCOT","WECC (U.S.) "

  5. USE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO FORECAST DISSOLUTION EFFECTIVENESS, SAFETY IMPACTS, AND DOWNSTREAM PROCESSABILITY FROM OXALIC ACID AIDED SLUDGE REMOVAL IN SAVANNAH RIVER SITE HIGH LEVEL WASTE TANKS 1-15

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    KETUSKY, EDWARD

    2005-10-31

    This thesis details a graduate research effort written to fulfill the Magister of Technologiae in Chemical Engineering requirements at the University of South Africa. The research evaluates the ability of equilibrium based software to forecast dissolution, evaluate safety impacts, and determine downstream processability changes associated with using oxalic acid solutions to dissolve sludge heels in Savannah River Site High Level Waste (HLW) Tanks 1-15. First, a dissolution model is constructed and validated. Coupled with a model, a material balance determines the fate of hypothetical worst-case sludge in the treatment and neutralization tanks during each chemical adjustment. Although sludge is dissolved, after neutralization more is created within HLW. An energy balance determines overpressurization and overheating to be unlikely. Corrosion induced hydrogen may overwhelm the purge ventilation. Limiting the heel volume treated/acid added and processing the solids through vitrification is preferred and should not significantly increase the number of glass canisters.

  6. Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Anggraeni, Novia Antika

    2015-04-24

    The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.

  7. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  8. Characterization, Leaching, and Filtration Testing for Bismuth Phosphate Sludge (Group 1) and Bismuth Phosphate Saltcake (Group 2) Actual Waste Sample Composites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lumetta, Gregg J.; Buck, Edgar C.; Daniel, Richard C.; Draper, Kathryn; Edwards, Matthew K.; Fiskum, Sandra K.; Hallen, Richard T.; Jagoda, Lynette K.; Jenson, Evan D.; Kozelisky, Anne E.; MacFarlan, Paul J.; Peterson, Reid A.; Shimskey, Rick W.; Sinkov, Sergey I.; Snow, Lanee A.

    2009-02-19

    A testing program evaluating actual tank waste was developed in response to Task 4 from the M-12 External Flowsheet Review Team (EFRT) issue response plan.() The test program was subdivided into logical increments. The bulk water-insoluble solid wastes that are anticipated to be delivered to the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) were identified according to type such that the actual waste testing could be targeted to the relevant categories. Eight broad waste groupings were defined. Samples available from the 222S archive were identified and obtained for testing. The actual waste-testing program included homogenizing the samples by group, characterizing the solids and aqueous phases, and performing parametric leaching tests. Two of the eight defined groups—bismuth phosphate sludge (Group 1) and bismuth phosphate saltcake (Group 2)—are the subjects of this report. The Group 1 waste was anticipated to be high in phosphorus and was implicitly assumed to be present as BiPO4 (however, results presented here indicate that the phosphate in Group 1 is actually present as amorphous iron(III) phosphate). The Group 2 waste was also anticipated to be high in phosphorus, but because of the relatively low bismuth content and higher aluminum content, it was anticipated that the Group 2 waste would contain a mixture of gibbsite, sodium phosphate, and aluminum phosphate. Thus, the focus of the Group 1 testing was on determining the behavior of P removal during caustic leaching, and the focus of the Group 2 testing was on the removal of both P and Al. The waste-type definition, archived sample conditions, homogenization activities, characterization (physical, chemical, radioisotope, and crystal habit), and caustic leaching behavior as functions of time, temperature, and hydroxide concentration are discussed in this report. Testing was conducted according to TP-RPP-WTP-467.

  9. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (? ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35 and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF models MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a ? gradient method whether using observed or modelled ? profiles.

  10. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy & Science Beta (PAGES Beta)

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  11. Effects of the Financial Crisis on Photovoltaics: An Analysis of Changes in Market Forecasts from 2008 to 2009

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bartlett, J. E.; Margolis, R. M.; Jennings, C. E.

    2009-09-01

    To examine how the financial crisis has impacted expectations of photovoltaic production, demand and pricing over the next several years, we surveyed the market forecasts of industry analysts that had issued projections in 2008 and 2009. We find that the financial crisis has had a significant impact on the PV industry, primarily through increasing the cost and reducing the availability of investment into the sector. These effects have been more immediately experienced by PV installations than by production facilities, due to the different types and duration of investments, and thus PV demand has been reduced by a greater proportion than PV production. By reducing demand more than production, the financial crisis has accelerated previously expected PV overcapacity and resulting price declines.

  12. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  13. Tracking target objects orbiting earth using satellite-based telescopes

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    De Vries, Willem H; Olivier, Scot S; Pertica, Alexander J

    2014-10-14

    A system for tracking objects that are in earth orbit via a constellation or network of satellites having imaging devices is provided. An object tracking system includes a ground controller and, for each satellite in the constellation, an onboard controller. The ground controller receives ephemeris information for a target object and directs that ephemeris information be transmitted to the satellites. Each onboard controller receives ephemeris information for a target object, collects images of the target object based on the expected location of the target object at an expected time, identifies actual locations of the target object from the collected images, and identifies a next expected location at a next expected time based on the identified actual locations of the target object. The onboard controller processes the collected image to identify the actual location of the target object and transmits the actual location information to the ground controller.

  14. SU-E-T-417: A Method for Predicting and Correcting the Dosimetric Effect of a Radiotherapy Treatment Couch in Actual Treatment Position

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Duan, J; Shen, S; Wu, X; Huang, M; Benhabib, S; Cardan, R; Popple, R; Brezovich, I

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Although radiation attenuation by the treatment couch can be included in the calculation of radiotherapy dose, difference between planned and actual treatment couch positions can generate significant dose discrepancies. We propose a method to predict and correct the dosimetric effect of the couch in actual treatment position. Methods: The couch transmission factor, T, varies with beam angle, G, couch lateral position, x, and vertical position, y, i.e., T=T(x,y,G). If T(x,y,G) is known for a fixed couch vertical position y=h, the transmission of central-axis beam (CAX) T(x,y,G) can be obtained by T(x,y,G)=T(x{sup +},h,G), where x{sup +}=x-(y-h)tan(G) and G is the angle between the beam and the vertical axis. Similarly, the transmission of any off-CAX point can be obtained using a similar formula. We measured CAX couch transmission at a fixed couch vertical position over the couch lateral motion range for all gantry angles by continuously scanning rotating arc beams. A 2D couch transmission correction matrix can thus be generated from T(x,h,G) for each treatment field for the actual couch position. By applying the transmission correction matrix to the planned field dose, the couch effect can be predicted and corrected. To verify this method, we measured couch transmission T(x, y=10cm, G=225)(225=IEC 135) and compared to that obtained from equivalent T(x{sup +}, y=3cm, G=225) over the range of lateral motion with a step size of 2 cm . Results: The measured couch transmission factors T(x, y=10cm, G=225) are in excellent agreement with those obtained from the equivalent T(x{sup +}, y=3cm, G=225). The mean difference is 0.004060.00135. Conclusion: The couch transmission correction matrix for any couch position and beam angle can be obtained from one set of scanning measurements at a fixed couch vertical position. The dosimetric effect of the treatment couch can be predicted and corrected by applying the couch transmission correction to the planned dose.

  15. Regional price targets appropriate for advanced coal extraction. [Forecasting to 1985 and 2000; USA; Regional analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Terasawa, K.L.; Whipple, D.W.

    1980-12-01

    The object of the study is to provide a methodology for predicting coal prices in regional markets for the target time frames 1985 and 2000 that could subsequently be used to guide the development of an advanced coal extraction system. The model constructed for the study is a supply and demand model that focuses on underground mining, since the advanced technology is expected to be developed for these reserves by the target years. The supply side of the model is based on coal reserve data generated by Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA). Given this data and the cost of operating a mine (data from US Department of Energy and Bureau of Mines), the Minimum Acceptable Selling Price (MASP) is obtained. The MASP is defined as the smallest price that would induce the producer to bring the mine into production, and is sensitive to the current technology and to assumptions concerning miner productivity. Based on this information, market supply curves can then be generated. On the demand side of the model, demand by region is calculated based on an EEA methodology that emphasizes demand by electric utilities and demand by industry. The demand and supply curves are then used to obtain the price targets. This last step is accomplished by allocating the demands among the suppliers so that the combined cost of producing and transporting coal is minimized.

  16. Sandia Energy - News

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    forecasts automatically from deterministic historical forecasts for load, solar, andor wind power production and their respective actuals, using a technology known as...

  17. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  18. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  19. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  20. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  1. Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1994--FY 2001. Environmental Restoration Program, September 1993 Revision

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    This Waste Generation Forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project. FY 1994--FY 2001 is the third in a series of documents that report current estimates of the waste volumes expected to be generated as a result of Environmental Restoration activities at Department of Energy, Oak Ridge Operations Office (DOE-ORO), sites. Considered in the scope of this document are volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of remedial action and decontamination and decommissioning activities taking place at these sites. Sites contributing to the total estimates make up the DOE-ORO Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: the Oak Ridge K-25 Site, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Y-12 Plant, the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, and the off-site contaminated areas adjacent to the Oak Ridge facilities (collectively referred to as the Oak Ridge Reservation Off-Site area). Estimates are available for the entire fife of all waste generating activities. This document summarizes waste estimates forecasted for the 8-year period of FY 1994-FY 2001. Updates with varying degrees of change are expected throughout the refinement of restoration strategies currently in progress at each of the sites. Waste forecast data are relatively fluid, and this document represents remediation plans only as reported through September 1993.

  2. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  3. A Fresh Look at Weather Impact on Peak Electricity Demand and Energy Use of Buildings Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

    2013-05-01

    Buildings consume more than one third of the world?s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980 to 2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: 1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does on energy use in buildings; 2) the simulated energy use using the TMY3 weather data is not necessarily representative of the average energy use over a long period, and the TMY3 results can be significantly higher or lower than those from the AMY data; 3) the weather impact is greater for buildings in colder climates than warmer climates; 4) the weather impact on the medium-sized office building was the greatest, followed by the large office and then the small office; and 5) simulated energy savings and peak demand reduction by energy conservation measures using the TMY3 weather data can be significantly underestimated or overestimated. It is crucial to run multi-decade simulations with AMY weather data to fully assess the impact of weather on the long-term performance of buildings, and to evaluate the energy savings potential of energy conservation measures for new and existing buildings from a life cycle perspective.

  4. The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

    2012-12-31

    ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most wind plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.

  5. Development of an Immersed Boundary Method to Resolve Complex Terrain in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lunquist, K A; Chow, F K; Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D

    2007-09-04

    Flow and dispersion processes in urban areas are profoundly influenced by the presence of buildings which divert mean flow, affect surface heating and cooling, and alter the structure of turbulence in the lower atmosphere. Accurate prediction of velocity, temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy fields are necessary for determining the transport and dispersion of scalars. Correct predictions of scalar concentrations are vital in densely populated urban areas where they are used to aid in emergency response planning for accidental or intentional releases of hazardous substances. Traditionally, urban flow simulations have been performed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes which can accommodate the geometric complexity inherent to urban landscapes. In these types of models the grid is aligned with the solid boundaries, and the boundary conditions are applied to the computational nodes coincident with the surface. If the CFD code uses a structured curvilinear mesh, then time-consuming manual manipulation is needed to ensure that the mesh conforms to the solid boundaries while minimizing skewness. If the CFD code uses an unstructured grid, then the solver cannot be optimized for the underlying data structure which takes an irregular form. Unstructured solvers are therefore often slower and more memory intensive than their structured counterparts. Additionally, urban-scale CFD models are often forced at lateral boundaries with idealized flow, neglecting dynamic forcing due to synoptic scale weather patterns. These CFD codes solve the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations and include limited options for representing atmospheric processes such as surface fluxes and moisture. Traditional CFD codes therefore posses several drawbacks, due to the expense of either creating the grid or solving the resulting algebraic system of equations, and due to the idealized boundary conditions and the lack of full atmospheric physics. Meso-scale atmospheric boundary layer simulations, on the other hand, are performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) codes, which cannot handle the geometry of the urban landscape, but do provide a more complete representation of atmospheric physics. NWP codes typically use structured grids with terrain-following vertical coordinates, include a full suite of atmospheric physics parameterizations, and allow for dynamic synoptic scale lateral forcing through grid nesting. Terrain following grids are unsuitable for urban terrain, as steep terrain gradients cause extreme distortion of the computational cells. In this work, we introduce and develop an immersed boundary method (IBM) to allow the favorable properties of a numerical weather prediction code to be combined with the ability to handle complex terrain. IBM uses a non-conforming structured grid, and allows solid boundaries to pass through the computational cells. As the terrain passes through the mesh in an arbitrary manner, the main goal of the IBM is to apply the boundary condition on the interior of the domain as accurately as possible. With the implementation of the IBM, numerical weather prediction codes can be used to explicitly resolve urban terrain. Heterogeneous urban domains using the IBM can be nested into larger mesoscale domains using a terrain-following coordinate. The larger mesoscale domain provides lateral boundary conditions to the urban domain with the correct forcing, allowing seamless integration between mesoscale and urban scale models. Further discussion of the scope of this project is given by Lundquist et al. [2007]. The current paper describes the implementation of an IBM into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open source numerical weather prediction code. The WRF model solves the non-hydrostatic compressible Navier-Stokes equations, and employs an isobaric terrain-following vertical coordinate. Many types of IB methods have been developed by researchers; a comprehensive review can be found in Mittal and Iaccarino [2005]. To the authors knowledge, this is the first IBM approach that is able to

  6. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is delayed and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  7. CENTIMETER CONTINUUM OBSERVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN HEAD OF THE HH 80/81/80N JET: REVISING THE ACTUAL DIMENSIONS OF A PARSEC-SCALE JET

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Masque, Josep M.; Estalella, Robert; Girart, Josep M.; Rodriguez, Luis F.; Beltran, Maria T.

    2012-10-10

    We present 6 and 20 cm Jansky Very Large Array/Very Large Array observations of the northern head of the HH 80/81/80N jet, one of the largest collimated jet systems known so far, aimed to look for knots farther than HH 80N, the northern head of the jet. Aligned with the jet and 10' northeast of HH 80N, we found a radio source not reported before, with a negative spectral index similar to that of HH 80, HH 81, and HH 80N. The fit of a precessing jet model to the knots of the HH 80/81/80N jet, including the new source, shows that the position of this source is close to the jet path resulting from the modeling. If the new source belongs to the HH 80/81/80N jet, its derived size and dynamical age are 18.4 pc and >9 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 3} yr, respectively. If the jet is symmetric, its southern lobe would expand beyond the cloud edge resulting in an asymmetric appearance of the jet. Based on the updated dynamical age, we speculate on the possibility that the HH 80/81/80N jet triggered the star formation observed in a dense core found ahead of HH 80N, which shows signposts of interaction with the jet. These results indicate that parsec-scale radio jets can play a role in the stability of dense clumps and the regulation of star formation in the molecular cloud.

  8. EPICS BASE

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    002230MLTPL00 Experimental Physics and Industrial Control System BASE http://www.aps.anl.gov/epics

  9. Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

  10. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  11. Geophysics-based method of locating a stationary earth object

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Daily, Michael R. (Albuquerque, NM); Rohde, Steven B. (Corrales, NM); Novak, James L. (Albuquerque, NM)

    2008-05-20

    A geophysics-based method for determining the position of a stationary earth object uses the periodic changes in the gravity vector of the earth caused by the sun- and moon-orbits. Because the local gravity field is highly irregular over a global scale, a model of local tidal accelerations can be compared to actual accelerometer measurements to determine the latitude and longitude of the stationary object.

  12. Discomfort Glare: What Do We Actually Know?

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Clear, Robert

    2012-02-29

    Glare models were reviewed with an eye for missing conditions or inconsistencies. We found ambiguities as to when to use small source versus large source models, and as to what constitutes a glare source in a complex scene. We also found surprisingly little information validating the assumed independence of the factors driving glare. A barrier to progress in glare research is the lack of a standardized dependent measure of glare. We inverted the glare models to predict luminance, and compared model predictions against the 1949 Luckiesh & Guth data that form the basis of many of them. The models perform surprisingly poorly, particularly with regards to the luminance-size relationship and additivity. Evaluating glare in complex scenes may require fundamental changes to form of the glare models.

  13. Market-Based Indian Grid Integration Study Options: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoltenberg, B.; Clark, K.; Negi, S. K.

    2012-03-01

    The Indian state of Gujarat is forecasting solar and wind generation expansion from 16% to 32% of installed generation capacity by 2015. Some states in India are already experiencing heavy wind power curtailment. Understanding how to integrate variable generation (VG) into the grid is of great interest to local transmission companies and India's Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. This paper describes the nature of a market-based integration study and how this approach, while new to Indian grid operation and planning, is necessary to understand how to operate and expand the grid to best accommodate the expansion of VG. Second, it discusses options in defining a study's scope, such as data granularity, generation modeling, and geographic scope. The paper also explores how Gujarat's method of grid operation and current system reliability will affect how an integration study can be performed.

  14. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  15. Fallout forecasting: 1945-1962

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kennedy, W.R. Jr.

    1986-03-01

    The delayed hazards of fallout from the detonations of nuclear devices in the atmosphere have always been the concern of those involved in the Test Program. Even before the Trinity Shot (TR-2) of July 16, 1945, many very competent, intelligent scientists and others from all fields of expertise tried their hand at the prediction problems. This resume and collection of parts from reports, memoranda, references, etc., endeavor to chronologically outline prediction methods used operationally in the field during Test Operations of nuclear devices fired into the atmosphere.

  16. Using Wikipedia to forecast disease

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    to plan for future outbreaks. The LANL team was able to successfully monitor influenza in the United States, dengue fever in Brazil and Thailand, and tuberculosis in China...

  17. Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    (Copernicus Center, Warsaw). Computing cycles: DOE NERSC. 14 May 26, 2011 FLASHWDM Parallel Performance strong peak weak 15 May 26, 2011 Example 2: Core-Collapse SN...

  18. Savannah River Site generic data base development

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Blanchard , A.

    2000-01-04

    This report describes the results of a project to improve the generic component failure database for the Savannah River Site (SRS). Additionally, guidelines were developed further for more advanced applications of database values. A representative list of components and failure modes for SRS risk models was generated by reviewing existing safety analyses and component failure data bases and from suggestions from SRS safety analysts. Then sources of data or failure rate estimates were identified and reviewed for applicability. A major source of information was the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability, or NUCLARR. This source includes an extensive collection of failure data and failure rate estimates for commercial nuclear power plants. A recent Idaho National Engineering Laboratory report on failure data from the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant was also reviewed. From these and other recent sources, failure data and failure rate estimates were collected for the components and failure modes of interest. For each component failure mode, this information was aggregated to obtain a recommended generic failure rate distribution (mean and error factor based on a lognormal distribution). Results are presented in a table in this report. A major difference between generic database and previous efforts is that this effort estimates failure rates based on actual data (failure events) rather than on existing failure rate estimates. This effort was successful in that over 75% of the results are now based on actual data. Also included is a section on guidelines for more advanced applications of failure rate data. This report describes the results of a project to improve the generic component failure database for the Savannah River site (SRS). Additionally, guidelines were developed further for more advanced applications of database values.

  19. Nohemi Brewer Transportation Program Manager U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    November 16, 2012 Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Radioactive Waste Shipment Update Page 2 Page 2Title ID 412- 11/16/2012 - Page 2 Log No 2012-263 Updated Generator Forecasts for Disposal at the NNSS in FY 2012 (cubic feet*) * Currently, there are 25 approved generator programs at 19 sites that can send low-level waste (LLW) and mixed low level waste (MLLW) to the NNSS * Based on actual disposal volumes received, total FY 2012 disposal was less than the April forecast update *Rounded to the

  20. Power Business Line Decision Forums, as of March 14, 2005

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Implementation - Rate Case 6 Renewable Budget Levels (wo rate credit) PFR PFR 7 Calpine Geothermal PFR Forecast Assumption - Rate Case Actual Implementation Cancellation -...

  1. Wind Integration

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Generation - ScheduledActual Balancing Reserves - Deployed Near Real-time Wind Animation Wind Projects under Review Growth Forecast Fact Sheets Working together to address...

  2. J. C. Fulton

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... sludge from the K West Reactor fuel storage basin. ... Number Title Type Due Date Actual Date Forecast Date Status ... Project Manager for Decommissioning, Waste, Fuels, and ...

  3. Development of simplified design aids based on the results of simulation analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Balcomb, J.D.

    1980-01-01

    The Solar Load Ratio method for estimating the performance of passive solar heating systems is described. It is a simplified technique which is based on correlating the monthly solar savings fraction in terms of the ratio of monthly solar radiation absorbed by the building to total monthly building thermal load. The effect of differences between actual design parameters and those used to develop the correlations is estimated afterwards using sensitivity curves. The technique is fast and simple and sufficiently accurate for design purposes.

  4. Risk-Based Comparison of Carbon Capture Technologies

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward

    2013-05-01

    In this paper, we describe an integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodological framework and a decision-support tool suite for implementing systematic comparisons of competing carbon capture technologies. Culminating from a collaborative effort among national laboratories under the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), the risk assessment framework and the decision-support tool suite encapsulate three interconnected probabilistic modeling and simulation components. The technology readiness level (TRL) assessment component identifies specific scientific and engineering targets required by each readiness level and applies probabilistic estimation techniques to calculate the likelihood of graded as well as nonlinear advancement in technology maturity. The technical risk assessment component focuses on identifying and quantifying risk contributors, especially stochastic distributions for significant risk contributors, performing scenario-based risk analysis, and integrating with carbon capture process model simulations and optimization. The financial risk component estimates the long-term return on investment based on energy retail pricing, production cost, operating and power replacement cost, plan construction and retrofit expenses, and potential tax relief, expressed probabilistically as the net present value distributions over various forecast horizons.

  5. FY 2016 Financial Overview

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    actual financial results, forecasts of BPA's financial position at the end of the current fiscal year, comparisons of actual financial results to start-of-year budgets and rate...

  6. FY 2003 Generation Audited Accumlated Net Revenues, March 2004

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    3rd Quarter Review Forecast FY 2003 Actual Results 1 FY 2000 PBL Actual Modified Net Revenue 252 252 2 Energy Northwest Debt Service Adjustment for FY 2000 (82) (82) 3 SFAS...

  7. Cloud-Based Model Calibration Using OpenStudio: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hale, E.; Lisell, L.; Goldwasser, D.; Macumber, D.; Dean, J.; Metzger, I.; Parker, A.; Long, N.; Ball, B.; Schott, M.; Weaver, E.; Brackney, L.

    2014-03-01

    OpenStudio is a free, open source Software Development Kit (SDK) and application suite for performing building energy modeling and analysis. The OpenStudio Parametric Analysis Tool has been extended to allow cloud-based simulation of multiple OpenStudio models parametrically related to a baseline model. This paper describes the new cloud-based simulation functionality and presents a model cali-bration case study. Calibration is initiated by entering actual monthly utility bill data into the baseline model. Multiple parameters are then varied over multiple iterations to reduce the difference between actual energy consumption and model simulation results, as calculated and visualized by billing period and by fuel type. Simulations are per-formed in parallel using the Amazon Elastic Cloud service. This paper highlights model parameterizations (measures) used for calibration, but the same multi-nodal computing architecture is available for other purposes, for example, recommending combinations of retrofit energy saving measures using the calibrated model as the new baseline.

  8. Data base of chemical explosions in Kazakhstan

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Demin, V.N.; Malahova, M.N.; Martysevich, P.N.; Mihaylova, N.N.; Nurmagambetov, A.; Kopnichev, Yu.F. D.; Edomin, V.I.

    1996-12-01

    Within the bounds of this report, the following works were done: (1) Information about explosion quarries, located in Southern, Eastern and Northern Kasakstan was summarized. (2) The general information about seismicity of areas of location of explosion quarries was adduced. (3) The system of observation and seismic apparatus, recording the local earthquakes and quarry explosions at the territory of Kazakstan were described. (4) Data base of quarry explosions, that were carried out in Southern, Eastern and Northern Kazakstan during 1995 and first half of 1996 year was adduced. (5) Upon the data of registration of explosions in Southern Kazakstan the correlative dependences between power class of explosions and summary weight of charge were constructed. (6) Seismic records of quarry explosions were adduced. It is necessary to note, that the collection of data about quarry explosions in Kazakstan in present time is very difficult task. Organizations, that makes these explosions, are always suffering reorganizations and sometimes it is actually impossible to receive all the necessary information. Some quarries are situated in remote, almost inaccessible regions, and within the bounds of supplier financing not the every quarry was in success to visit. So the present data base upon the chemical explosions for 1995 is not full and in further it`s expansion is possible.

  9. Search for: All records | SciTech Connect

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals. October 2014 , IEEE, Piscataway, NJ, United ...

  10. Bases for solid waste volume estimates for tank waste remediation system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Reddick, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-08-01

    This document presents the background and basis for the Tank Waste Remediation System forecast for solid waste submitted in June 1996. The forecast was generated for single-shell tank and double-shell tank activities including operations through retrieval and disposal of chemical tank waste.

  11. ASSESSING AND FORECASTING, BY PLAY, NATURAL GAS ULTIMATE RECOVERY GROWTH AND QUANTIFYING THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS IN THE TEXAS GULF COAST BASIN AND EAST TEXAS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    William L. Fisher; Eugene M. Kim

    2000-12-01

    A detailed natural gas ultimate recovery growth (URG) analysis of the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas has been undertaken. The key to such analysis was determined to be the disaggregation of the resource base to the play level. A play is defined as a conceptual geologic unit having one or more reservoirs that can be genetically related on the basis of depositional origin of the reservoir, structural or trap style, source rocks and hydrocarbon generation, migration mechanism, seals for entrapment, and type of hydrocarbon produced. Plays are the geologically homogeneous subdivision of the universe of petroleum pools within a basin. Therefore, individual plays have unique geological features that can be used as a conceptual model that incorporates geologic processes and depositional environments to explain the distribution of petroleum. Play disaggregation revealed important URG trends for the major natural gas fields in the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas. Although significant growth and future potential were observed for the major fields, important URG trends were masked by total, aggregated analysis based on a broad geological province. When disaggregated by plays, significant growth and future potential were displayed for plays that were associated with relatively recently discovered fields, deeper reservoir depths, high structural complexities due to fault compartmentalization, reservoirs designated as tight gas/low-permeability, and high initial reservoir pressures. Continued technology applications and advancements are crucial in achieving URG potential in these plays.

  12. Grid-based Production

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Grid-based Production Grid-based Production PDSF is a Tier 2 site for ALICE and as such has the infrastructure in place to run automated grid-based ALICE production jobs. The main...

  13. Analysis of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990: A forecast of the electric utility industry response to Title IV, Acid Deposition Control

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Molburg, J.C.; Fox, J.A.; Pandola, G.; Cilek, C.M.

    1991-10-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 incorporate, for the first time, provisions aimed specifically at the control of acid rain. These provisions restrict emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and oxides of nitrogen (NO{sub x}) from electric power generating stations. The restrictions on SO{sub 2} take the form of an overall cap on the aggregate emissions from major generating plants, allowing substantial flexibility in the industry`s response to those restrictions. This report discusses one response scenario through the year 2030 that was examined through a simulation of the utility industry based on assumptions consistent with characterizations used in the National Energy Strategy reference case. It also makes projections of emissions that would result from the use of existing and new capacity and of the associated additional costs of meeting demand subject to the emission limitations imposed by the Clean Air Act. Fuel-use effects, including coal-market shifts, consistent with the response scenario are also described. These results, while dependent on specific assumptions for this scenario, provide insight into the general character of the likely utility industry response to Title IV.

  14. Analysis of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990: A forecast of the electric utility industry response to Title IV, Acid Deposition Control

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Molburg, J.C.; Fox, J.A.; Pandola, G.; Cilek, C.M.

    1991-10-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 incorporate, for the first time, provisions aimed specifically at the control of acid rain. These provisions restrict emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO[sub 2]) and oxides of nitrogen (NO[sub x]) from electric power generating stations. The restrictions on SO[sub 2] take the form of an overall cap on the aggregate emissions from major generating plants, allowing substantial flexibility in the industry's response to those restrictions. This report discusses one response scenario through the year 2030 that was examined through a simulation of the utility industry based on assumptions consistent with characterizations used in the National Energy Strategy reference case. It also makes projections of emissions that would result from the use of existing and new capacity and of the associated additional costs of meeting demand subject to the emission limitations imposed by the Clean Air Act. Fuel-use effects, including coal-market shifts, consistent with the response scenario are also described. These results, while dependent on specific assumptions for this scenario, provide insight into the general character of the likely utility industry response to Title IV.

  15. Interim report of the interagency coal export task force: draft for public comment. [Trade by country 1960-1979; general forecasting to 1985, 1990 and 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1981-01-01

    The Interagency Coal Export Task Force was formed in the Spring of 1980 at the direction of the President, in support of the international efforts of the United States, encouraging the use of coal. Its purpose was to report on possible courses of action to increase United States steam coal exports in a manner consistent with other national policies, including our commitment to environmental protection. The Task Force assembled existing data, developed significant new information regarding the international coal market and undertook analyses of apparent problems underlying coal exports. The Task Force contributed to a public awareness of the fact that increased coal exports will serve both the domestic and international interests of the United States. Based upon extensive, independent field studies in Europe and the Far East, the Task Force concludes that there will be significant growth in world demand for steam coal. Such growth has already begun, has contributed to the almost seven-fold increase in United States overseas steam coal exports for 1990 over 1979, and is expected to continue beyond the end of this century. The growth in world steam coal trade projected in the report does not guarantee United States coal exporters a large or expanding share of the market. The United States' role depends on the buying strategies of the consuming countries, the policies and prices of competing exporters, and the actions taken by the United States to maintain reasonable prices, prompt delivery and dependable quality. Projections of United States steam coal exports, therefore, rest upon a number of highly uncertain factors which are discussed in some detail.

  16. HELIOSPHERIC PROPAGATION OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS: COMPARISON OF NUMERICAL WSA-ENLIL+CONE MODEL AND ANALYTICAL DRAG-BASED MODEL

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vrnak, B.; ic, T.; Dumbovi?, M.; Temmer, M.; Mstl, C.; Veronig, A. M.; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Odstr?il, D. E-mail: tzic@geof.hr E-mail: manuela.temmer@uni-graz.at E-mail: astrid.veronig@uni-graz.at E-mail: m.leila.mays@nasa.gov

    2014-08-01

    Real-time forecasting of the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth, based on remote solar observations, is one of the central issues of space-weather research. In this paper, we compare arrival-time predictions calculated applying the numerical ''WSA-ENLIL+Cone model'' and the analytical ''drag-based model'' (DBM). Both models use coronagraphic observations of CMEs as input data, thus providing an early space-weather forecast two to four days before the arrival of the disturbance at the Earth, depending on the CME speed. It is shown that both methods give very similar results if the drag parameter ? = 0.1 is used in DBM in combination with a background solar-wind speed of w = 400 km s{sup 1}. For this combination, the mean value of the difference between arrival times calculated by ENLIL and DBM is ?-bar =0.099.0 hr with an average of the absolute-value differences of |?|-bar =7.1 hr. Comparing the observed arrivals (O) with the calculated ones (C) for ENLIL gives O C = 0.3 16.9 hr and, analogously, O C = +1.1 19.1 hr for DBM. Applying ? = 0.2 with w = 450 km s{sup 1} in DBM, one finds O C = 1.7 18.3 hr, with an average of the absolute-value differences of 14.8 hr, which is similar to that for ENLIL, 14.1 hr. Finally, we demonstrate that the prediction accuracy significantly degrades with increasing solar activity.

  17. Carbon Nanotube Based Sensors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jiang, Mian; Lin, Yuehe

    2006-11-01

    This review article provides a comprehensive review on sensors and biosensors based on functionalized carbon nanotubes.

  18. physics-based-html

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Physics-based High-Resolution Numerical Modeling of Bridge Foundation Scour

  19. Process for fabricating ZnO-based varistors

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lauf, Robert J. (Oak Ridge, TN)

    1985-01-01

    The invention is a process for producing ZnO-based varistors incorporating a metal oxide dopant. In one form, the invention comprises providing a varistor powder mix of colloidal particles of ZnO and metal-oxide dopants including Bi.sub.2 O.sub.3. The mix is hot-pressed to form a compact at temperatures below 850.degree. C. and under conditions effecting reduction of the ZnO to sub-stoichiometric oxide. This promotes densification while restricting liquid formation and grain growth. The compact then is heated under conditions restoring the zinc oxide to stoichiometric composition, thus improving the varistor properties of the compact. The process produces fine-grain varistors characterized by a high actual breakdown voltage and a high average breakdown voltage per individual grain boundary.

  20. Tariff-based analysis of commercial building electricityprices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Coughlin, Katie M.; Bolduc, Chris A.; Rosenquist, Greg J.; VanBuskirk, Robert D.; McMahon, James E.

    2008-03-28

    This paper presents the results of a survey and analysis ofelectricity tariffs and marginal electricity prices for commercialbuildings. The tariff data come from a survey of 90 utilities and 250tariffs for non-residential customers collected in 2004 as part of theTariff Analysis Project at LBNL. The goals of this analysis are toprovide useful summary data on the marginal electricity prices commercialcustomers actually see, and insight into the factors that are mostimportant in determining prices under different circumstances. We providea new, empirically-based definition of several marginal prices: theeffective marginal price and energy-only anddemand-only prices, andderive a simple formula that expresses the dependence of the effectivemarginal price on the marginal load factor. The latter is a variable thatcan be used to characterize the load impacts of a particular end-use orefficiency measure. We calculate all these prices for eleven regionswithin the continental U.S.

  1. Template based parallel checkpointing in a massively parallel computer system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Archer, Charles Jens (Rochester, MN); Inglett, Todd Alan (Rochester, MN)

    2009-01-13

    A method and apparatus for a template based parallel checkpoint save for a massively parallel super computer system using a parallel variation of the rsync protocol, and network broadcast. In preferred embodiments, the checkpoint data for each node is compared to a template checkpoint file that resides in the storage and that was previously produced. Embodiments herein greatly decrease the amount of data that must be transmitted and stored for faster checkpointing and increased efficiency of the computer system. Embodiments are directed to a parallel computer system with nodes arranged in a cluster with a high speed interconnect that can perform broadcast communication. The checkpoint contains a set of actual small data blocks with their corresponding checksums from all nodes in the system. The data blocks may be compressed using conventional non-lossy data compression algorithms to further reduce the overall checkpoint size.

  2. Integrated data base report--1996: US spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste inventories, projections, and characteristics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1997-12-01

    The Integrated Data Base Program has compiled historic data on inventories and characteristics of both commercial and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and commercial and U.S. government-owned radioactive wastes. Inventories of most of these materials are reported as of the end of fiscal year (FY) 1996, which is September 30, 1996. Commercial SNF and commercial uranium mill tailings inventories are reported on an end-of-calendar year (CY) basis. All SNF and radioactive waste data reported are based on the most reliable information available from government sources, the open literature, technical reports, and direct contacts. The information forecasted is consistent with the latest DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections of U.S. commercial nuclear power growth and the expected DOE-related and private industrial and institutional activities. The radioactive materials considered, on a chapter-by-chapter basis, are SNF, high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, uranium mill tailings, DOE Environmental Restoration Program contaminated environmental media, naturally occurring and accelerator-produced radioactive material, and mixed (hazardous and radioactive) low-level waste. For most of these categories, current and projected inventories are given through FY 2030, and the radioactivity and thermal power are calculated based on reported or estimated isotopic compositions.

  3. Integrated data base report - 1994: US spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste inventories, projections, and characteristics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-09-01

    The Integrated Data Base Program has compiled historic data on inventories and characteristics of both commercial and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) spent nuclear fuel and commercial and U.S. government-owned radioactive wastes. Except for transuranic wastes, inventories of these materials are reported as of December 31, 1994. Transuranic waste inventories are reported as of December 31, 1993. All spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste data reported are based on the most reliable information available from government sources, the open literature, technical reports, and direct contacts. The information forecasted is consistent with the latest DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections of U.S. commercial nuclear power growth and the expected DOE-related and private industrial and institutional activities. The radioactive materials considered, on a chapter-by-chapter basis, are spent nuclear fuel, high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, commercial uranium mill tailings, DOE Environmental Restoration Program contaminated environmental media, commercial reactor and fuel-cycle facility decommissioning wastes, and mixed (hazardous and radioactive) low-level waste. For most of these categories, current and projected inventories are given through the calendar-year 2030, and the radioactivity and thermal power are calculated based on reported or estimated isotopic compositions.

  4. Meteorological field measurements at potential and actual wind turbine sites

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Renne, D.S.; Sandusky, W.F.; Hadley, D.L.

    1982-09-01

    An overview of experiences gained in a meteorological measurement program conducted at a number of locations around the United States for the purpose of site evaluation for wind energy utilization is provided. The evolution of the measurement program from its inception in 1976 to the present day is discussed. Some of the major accomplishments and areas for improvement are outlined. Some conclusions on research using data from this program are presented.

  5. CCP_FinalActual_2011_11_06.xlsx

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    15 TROJAN DECOMMISSIONING (26,485) 1,500 (27,985) 16 WNP-1&3 DECOMMISSIONING 607 448 159 17 Sub-Total (25,878) 1,948 (27,826) 18 Gross Contracted Power...

  6. Dissolution Studies With Pilot Plant and Actual INTEC Calcines

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Herbst, Ronald Scott; Garn, Troy Gerry

    1999-04-01

    The dissolution of Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC) pilot plant calcines was examined to determine solubility of calcine matrix components in acidic media. Two representatives pilot plant calcine types were studied: Zirconia calcine and Zirconia/ Sodium calcine. Dissolution of these calcines was evaluated using lower initial concentrations of nitric acid than used in previous tests to decrease the [H+] concentration in the final solutions. Lower [H+] concentrations contribute to more favorable TRUEX/SREX solvent extraction flowsheet performance. Dissolution and analytical results were also obtained for radioactive calcines produced using high sodium feeds blended with non-radioactive A1(NO3)3 solutions to dilute the sodium concentration and prevent bed agglomeration during the calcination process. Dissolution tests indicated >95 wt. % of the initial calcine mass can be dissolved using the baseline dissolution procedure, with the exception that higher initial nitric acid concentrations are required. The higher initial acid concentration is required for stoichiometric dissolution of the oxides, primarily aluminum oxide. Statistically designed experiments using pilot plant calcine were performed to determine the effect of mixing rate on dissolution efficiency. Mixing rate was determined to provide minimal effects on wt. % dissolution. The acid/calcine ratio and temperature were the predominate variables affecting the wt. % dissolution, a result consistent with previous studies using other similar types of pilot plant calcines.

  7. Table 9. Natural Gas Production, Projected vs. Actual Projected

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    18.90 19.15 19.52 19.59 19.59 19.65 19.73 19.97 20.36 20.82 21.25 21.37 21.68 22.11 22.47 22.83 23.36 23.81 24.11 AEO 1997 19.10 19.70 20.17 20.32 20.54 20.77 21.26 21.90 22.31...

  8. Table 8. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    "AEO 1994",19.87,20.21,20.64,20.99,21.2,21.42,21.6,21.99,22.37,22.63,22.95,23.22,23.58,23.82,24.09,24.13,24.02,24.14 "AEO 1995",,20.82,20.66,20.85,21.21,21.65,21.95,22....

  9. Table 8. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Projected vs. Actual

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    2012 2013 AEO 1994 19.87 20.21 20.64 20.99 21.20 21.42 21.60 21.99 22.37 22.63 22.95 23.22 23.58 23.82 24.09 24.13 24.02 24.14 AEO 1995 20.82 20.66 20.85 21.21 21.65 21.95 22.12...

  10. Activity Based Costing

    Broader source: Directives, Delegations, and Requirements [Office of Management (MA)]

    1997-03-28

    Activity Based Costing (ABC) is method for developing cost estimates in which the project is subdivided into discrete, quantifiable activities or a work unit. This chapter outlines the Activity Based Costing method and discusses applicable uses of ABC.

  11. U.S. Renewable Energy Technical Potentials: A GIS-Based Analysis

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) routinely estimates the technical potential of specific renewable electricity generation technologies. These are technology-specific estimates of energy generation potential based on renewable resource availability and quality, technical system performance, topographic limitations, environmental, and land-use constraints only. The estimates do not consider (in most cases) economic or market constraints, and therefore do not represent a level of renewable generation that might actually be deployed. Technical potential estimates for six different renewable energy technologies were calculated by NREL, and methods and results for several other renewable technologies from previously published reports are also presented.

  12. Provably Secure Password-based Authentication in TLS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Abdalla, Michel; Emmanuel, Bresson; Chevassut, Olivier; Moeller,Bodo; Pointcheval, David

    2005-12-20

    In this paper, we show how to design an efficient, provably secure password-based authenticated key exchange mechanism specifically for the TLS (Transport Layer Security) protocol. The goal is to provide a technique that allows users to employ (short) passwords to securely identify themselves to servers. As our main contribution, we describe a new password-based technique for user authentication in TLS, called Simple Open Key Exchange (SOKE). Loosely speaking, the SOKE ciphersuites are unauthenticated Diffie-Hellman ciphersuites in which the client's Diffie-Hellman ephemeral public value is encrypted using a simple mask generation function. The mask is simply a constant value raised to the power of (a hash of) the password.The SOKE ciphersuites, in advantage over previous pass-word-based authentication ciphersuites for TLS, combine the following features. First, SOKE has formal security arguments; the proof of security based on the computational Diffie-Hellman assumption is in the random oracle model, and holds for concurrent executions and for arbitrarily large password dictionaries. Second, SOKE is computationally efficient; in particular, it only needs operations in a sufficiently large prime-order subgroup for its Diffie-Hellman computations (no safe primes). Third, SOKE provides good protocol flexibility because the user identity and password are only required once a SOKE ciphersuite has actually been negotiated, and after the server has sent a server identity.

  13. ,"Projected Monthly Base","Year","Contiguous U.S.","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,,,"Texas Power Grid","Western Power Grid"

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site

    ","Table 3a. January Monthly Peak Hour Demand, Actual and Projected by North American Electric Reliability Council Region, " ,"1996 through 2004 and Projected 2005 through 2006 " ,"(Megawatts and 2004 Base Year)" ,"Projected Monthly Base","Year","Contiguous U.S.","Eastern Power Grid",,,,,,,,"Texas Power Grid","Western Power Grid"

  14. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and ...

  15. Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wang, Peng; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.; Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.

    2013-01-15

    We consider the development of harmful algae blooms (HABs) in a lake with uncertain nutrients inflow. Two general frameworks, Fokker-Planck equation and the PDF methods, are developed to quantify the resultant concentration uncertainty of various algae groups, via deriving a deterministic equation of their joint probability density function (PDF). A computational example is examined to study the evolution of cyanobacteria (the blue-green algae) and the impacts of initial concentration and inflow-outflow ratio.

  16. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ...mizationprojectanlgasper.ppt More Documents & Publications Day-ahead Scheding and Real-time Operations Tool 2014 Water Power Program Peer Review Compiled Presentations: ...

  17. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Facilities

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    energy research and development. The 2,600-square-foot facility was completed in 2000 and houses the Metrology Laboratory, Optical Metrology Laboratory, Data Acquisition...

  18. Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    1999-01-01

    Final issue of this report. Presents a series of eight papers, which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets.

  19. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Metrology Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Metrology Laboratory Photo of Solar Radiation Research Laboratory researchers inspecting radiometers mounted to calibration tables at the outside test site. Researchers at the Solar Radiation Research Laboratory use pyranometers, pyrheliometers, pyrgeometers, photometers, and spectroradiometers to provide the solar resource information necessary for renewable energy research and development. Metrology, the science of measurement, is a critical part of providing accurate and repeatable data.

  20. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Photo of Mark Kutchenreiter - Senior Research Technician A.S. Air Pollution Control Engineering Technology, Pennsylvania State University Mark joined NREL in 2010 and works at the ...

  1. OpenEI Community - energy data + forecasting

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

  2. Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP results for the base case and scenarios.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems

    2009-12-03

    The NEMS-MP model generates numerous results for each run of a scenario. (This model is the integrated National Energy Modeling System [NEMS] version used for the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study [MP].) This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses (Reference 1). These additional results are provided in order to help further illuminate some of the primary results. Specifically discussed in this appendix are: (1) Energy use results for light vehicles (LVs), including details about the underlying total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the average vehicle fuel economy, and the volumes of the different fuels used; (2) Resource fuels and their use in the production of ethanol, hydrogen (H{sub 2}), and electricity; (3) Ethanol use in the scenarios (i.e., the ethanol consumption in E85 vs. other blends, the percent of travel by flex fuel vehicles on E85, etc.); (4) Relative availability of E85 and H2 stations; (5) Fuel prices; (6) Vehicle prices; and (7) Consumer savings. These results are discussed as follows: (1) The three scenarios (Mixed, (P)HEV & Ethanol, and H2 Success) when assuming vehicle prices developed through literature review; (2) The three scenarios with vehicle prices that incorporate the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program vehicle cost goals; (3) The three scenarios with 'literature review' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies; and (4) The three scenarios with 'program goals' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies. The four versions or cases of each scenario are referred to as: Literature Review No Subsidies, Program Goals No Subsidies, Literature Review with Subsidies, and Program Goals with Subsidies. Two additional points must be made here. First, none of the results presented for LVs in this section include Class 2B trucks. Results for this class are included occasionally in Reference 1. They represent a small, though noticeable, segment of the 'LV plus 2B' market (e.g., a little more than 3% of today's energy use in that market). We generally do not include them in this discussion, simply because it requires additional effort to combine the NEMS-MP results for them with the results for the other LVs. (Where there is an exception, we will indicate so.) Second, where reference is made to E85, the ethanol content is actually 74%. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) assumes that, to address cold-starting issues, the percent of ethanol in E85 will vary seasonally. The EIA uses an annual average ethanol content of 74% in its forecasts. That assumption is maintained in the NEMS-MP scenario runs.

  3. Consent-Based Siting

    Energy Savers [EERE]

    BASED SITING CONSENT-BASED SITING PUBLIC MEETING University of Chicago, Gleacher Center 450 North Cityfront Plaza Drive Chicago, IL 60611 March 29, 2016 12:00-1:00 PM Informal Open House and Poster Session (Before Meeting Begins) 1:00-1:15 PM Welcoming Remarks Robert Rosner, Distinguished Service Professor, Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics & Physics, University of Chicago 1:15-1:30 PM Moving Forward with Consent-Based Siting John Kotek, Acting Assistant Secretary for Nuclear

  4. TF Web Based Training

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    TF-Web-Based-Training Sign In About | Careers | Contact | Investors | bpa.gov Search News & Us Expand News & Us Projects & Initiatives Expand Projects & Initiatives Finance...

  5. Gasification-based biomass

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    The gasification-based biomass section of the Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations describes the technical and economic status of this emerging renewable energy option for electricity supply.

  6. Performance-based Contracting

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Reference: FAR 37.6; DEAR 970.1001 Overview This section provides guidance and instruction for the development and administration of Performance-Based Contracting concepts...

  7. Soy-based polyols

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Suppes, Galen; Lozada, Zueica; Lubguban, Arnold

    2013-06-25

    The invention provides processes for preparing soy-based oligomeric polyols or substituted oligomeric polyols, as well as urethane bioelasteromers comprising the oligomeric polyols or substituted oligomeric polyols.

  8. Roadmap Toward a Predictive Performance-based Commercial Energy Code

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rosenberg, Michael I.; Hart, Philip R.

    2014-10-01

    Energy codes have provided significant increases in building efficiency over the last 38 years, since the first national energy model code was published in late 1975. The most commonly used path in energy codes, the prescriptive path, appears to be reaching a point of diminishing returns. The current focus on prescriptive codes has limitations including significant variation in actual energy performance depending on which prescriptive options are chosen, a lack of flexibility for designers and developers, and the inability to handle control optimization that is specific to building type and use. This paper provides a high level review of different options for energy codes, including prescriptive, prescriptive packages, EUI Target, outcome-based, and predictive performance approaches. This paper also explores a next generation commercial energy code approach that places a greater emphasis on performance-based criteria. A vision is outlined to serve as a roadmap for future commercial code development. That vision is based on code development being led by a specific approach to predictive energy performance combined with building specific prescriptive packages that are designed to be both cost-effective and to achieve a desired level of performance. Compliance with this new approach can be achieved by either meeting the performance target as demonstrated by whole building energy modeling, or by choosing one of the prescriptive packages.

  9. Risk assessment based on point source deposition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chadwick, G.F.

    1997-12-31

    The International Joint Commission (IJC) in a recently published report states that various clean-up techniques have resulted in significantly cleaner lakes than 20 years ago. Both the US EPA and Environment Canada have passed laws that require emissions controls on significant sources of contaminants. Improved emission controls have played a large part in the reduced pollution levels to the Great Lakes. Improved controls have significantly reduced the pollutants deposited to both land and water. This paper will discuss a Risk Analysis for the emissions from a Hospital in Rochester, New York. Current New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) regulations require emission controls on such incinerators. This hospital has added both a scrubber and a bag house to control emissions. Twenty years ago, such incinerators, like many other emission sources would not have had control devices. New York`s Department of Environmental Conservation requires, as part of the Permitting process, that an Impact Analysis and if required, a multipathway Health Risk Assessment (HRA) be performed for all Medical Waste Incinerators before a Permit can be issued. This insures that the emissions will not create a health hazard to humans. Such an analysis was performed for a new 1,000 lb/hr Medical Waste Incinerator (MWI) installed in the North-East part of Rochester, New York. An Air Quality Impact Assessment (AQIA) based on an actual stack test indicated that this facility`s dioxin emissions would exceed the NY DEC Guideline levels. The Carcinogenic Risk (of death) for our most exposed individual (MEI) was calculated to be 8.75 E{sup {minus}06} (<1:100,000). The Hazard Index calculated for this MEI was 0.43. Hazard Index`s less then 1 are considered a reasonable risk. Health risk assessments are by design, very conservative. EPA sources have concluded that calculated death risks between one (1) and one hundred (100) per million are not excessive.

  10. Integration of Photovoltaics into Building Energy Usage through Advanced Control of Rooftop Unit

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Starke, Michael R; Nutaro, James J; Irminger, Philip; Ollis, Benjamin; Kuruganti, Phani Teja; Fugate, David L

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a computational approach to forecast photovoltaic (PV) power in kW based on a neural network linkage of publicly available cloud cover data and on-site solar irradiance sensor data. We also describe a control approach to utilize rooftop air conditioning units (RTUs) to support renewable integration. The PV forecasting method is validated using data from a rooftop PV panel installed on the Distributed Energy, Communications, and Controls (DECC) laboratory at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The validation occurs in multiple phases to ensure that each component of the approach is the best representation of the actual expected output. The control of the RTU is based on model predictive methods.

  11. Integrated data base for 1993: US spent fuel and radioactive waste inventories, projections, and characteristics. Revision 9

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Klein, J.A.; Storch, S.N.; Ashline, R.C.

    1994-03-01

    The Integrated Data Base (IDB) Program has compiled historic data on inventories and characteristics of both commercial and DOE spent fuel; also, commercial and U.S. government-owned radioactive wastes through December 31, 1992. These data are based on the most reliable information available from government sources, the open literature, technical reports, and direct contacts. The information forecasted is consistent with the latest U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA) projections of U.S. commercial nuclear power growth and the expected DOE-related and private industrial and institutional (I/I) activities. The radioactive materials considered, on a chapter-by-chapter basis, are spent nuclear fuel, high-level waste (HLW), transuranic (TRU), waste, low-level waste (LLW), commercial uranium mill tailings, environmental restoration wastes, commercial reactor and fuel-cycle facility decommissioning wastes, and mixed (hazardous and radioactive) LLW. For most of these categories, current and projected inventories are given through the calendar-year (CY) 2030, and the radioactivity and thermal power are calculated based on reported or estimated isotopic compositions. In addition, characteristics and current inventories are reported for miscellaneous radioactive materials that may require geologic disposal.

  12. Integrated Data Base report--1993: U.S. spent nuclear fuel and radioactive waste inventories, projections, and characteristics. Revision 10

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    The Integrated Data Base Program has compiled historic data on inventories and characteristics of both commercial and DOE spent nuclear fuel; also, commercial and US government-owned radioactive wastes through December 31, 1993. These data are based on the most reliable information available from government sources, the open literature, technical reports, and direct contacts. The information forecasted is consistent with the latest US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration projections of US commercial nuclear power growth and the expected DOE-related and private industrial and institutional activities. The radioactive materials considered, on a chapter-by-chapter basis, are spent nuclear fuel, high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, commercial uranium mill tailings, DOE Environmental Restoration Program wastes, commercial reactor and fuel-cycle facility decommissioning wastes, and mixed (hazardous and radioactive) low-level waste. For most of these categories, current and projected inventories are given the calendar-year 2030, and the radioactivity and thermal power are calculated based on reported or estimated isotopic compositions. In addition, characteristics and current inventories are reported for miscellaneous radioactive materials that may require geologic disposal. 256 refs., 38 figs., 141 tabs.

  13. Integrated Data Base for 1992: US spent fuel and radioactive waste inventories, projections, and characteristics. Revision 8

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Payton, M. L.; Williams, J. T.; Tolbert-Smith, M.; Klein, J. A.

    1992-10-01

    The Integrated Data Base (IDB) Program has compiled current data on inventories and characteristics of commercial spent fuel and both commercial and US government-owned radioactive wastes through December 31, 1991. These data are based on the most reliable information available from government sources, the open literature, technical reports, and direct contacts. The information forecasted is consistent with the latest US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (DOE/EIA) projections of US commercial nuclear power growth and the expected DOE-related and private industrial and institutional (I/I) activities. The radioactive materials considered, on a chapter-by-chapter basis, are spent nuclear fuel, high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, commercial uranium mill tailings, environmental restoration wastes, commercial reactor and fuel cycle facility decommissioning wastes, and mixed (hazardous and radioactive) low-level waste. For most of these categories, current and projected inventories are given through the year 2030, and the radioactivity and thermal power are calculated based on reported or estimated isotopic compositions. In addition, characteristics and current inventories are reported for miscellaneous radioactive materials that may require geologic disposal.

  14. Radioisotope power system based on derivative of existing Stirling engine

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schock, A.; Or, C.T.; Kumar, V.

    1995-12-31

    In a recent paper, the authors presented the results of a system design study of a 75-watt(c) RSG (Radioisotope Stirling Generator) for possible application to the Pluto Fast Flyby mission. That study was based on a Stirling engine design generated by MTI (Mechanical Technology, Inc.). The MTI design was a derivative of a much larger (13 kwe) engine that they had developed and tested for NASA`s LERC. Clearly, such a derivative would be a major extrapolation (downsizing) from what has actually been built and tested. To avoid that, the present paper describes a design for a 75-watt RSG system based on derivatives of a small (11-watt) engine and linear alternator system that has been under development by STC (Stirling Technology Company) for over three years and that has operated successfully for over 15,000 hours as of March 1995. Thus, the STC engines would require much less extrapolation from proven designs. The design employs a heat source consisting of two standard General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules, coupled to four Stirling engines with linear alternators, any three of which could deliver the desired 75-watt(e) output if the fourth should fail. The four engines are coupled to four common radiators with redundant heatpipes for rejecting the engines` waste heat to space. The above engine and radiator redundancies promote system reliability. The paper describes detailed analyses to determine the effect of radiator geometry on system mass and performance, before and after an engine or heatpipe failure.

  15. WindSENSE Project Summary: FY2009-2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kamath, C

    2011-09-25

    Renewable resources, such as wind and solar, are providing an increasingly larger percentage of our energy needs. To successfully integrate these intermittent resources into the power grid while maintaining its reliability, we need to better understand the characteristics and predictability of the variability associated with these power generation resources. WindSENSE, a three year project at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, considered the problem of scheduling wind energy on the grid from the viewpoint of the control room operator. Our interviews with operators at Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), Southern California Edison (SCE), and California Independent System Operator (CaISO), indicated several challenges to integrating wind power generation into the grid. As the percentage of installed wind power has increased, the variable nature of the generation has become a problem. For example, in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) balancing area, the installed wind capacity has increased from 700 MW in 2006-2007 to over 1300 MW in 2008 and more than 2600 MW in 2009. To determine the amount of energy to schedule for the hours ahead, operators typically use 0-6 hour ahead forecasts, along with the actual generation in the previous hours and days. These forecasts are obtained from numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations or based on recent trends in wind speed in the vicinity of the wind farms. However, as the wind speed can be difficult to predict, especially in a region with complex terrain, the forecasts can be inaccurate. Complicating matters are ramp events, where the generation suddenly increases or decreases by a large amount in a short time (Figure 1, right panel). These events are challenging to predict, and given their short duration, make it difficult to keep the load and the generation balanced. Our conversations with BPA, SCE, and CaISO indicated that control room operators would like (1) more accurate wind power generation forecasts for use in scheduling and (2) additional information that can be exploited when the forecasts do not match the actual generation. To achieve this, WindSENSE had two areas of focus: (1) analysis of historical data for better insights, and (2) observation targeting for improved forecasts. The goal was to provide control room operators with an awareness of wind conditions and energy forecasts so they can make well-informed scheduling decisions, especially in the case of extreme events such as ramps.

  16. BASE Operator's Manual - 88-Inch Cyclotron

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    BASE Operator's Manual BASE_Facility_-_SEE_Software_Operation.doc

  17. RF-Based Accelerators

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    RF-Based Accelerators for HEDP Research ∗ John W. Staples, Andrew Sessler, Roderich Keller, LBNL, Berkeley, California, Petr Ostroumov, ANL, Argonne, Illinois, Weiren Chou, Fermilab, Batavia, Illinois Abstract Accelerator-driven High-Energy Density Physics (HEDP) experiments require typically 1 nanosecond, 1 microcoulomb pulses of mass 20 ions accelerated to several MeV to produce eV-level excitations in thin targets, the "warm dense matter" regime. Traditionally the province of

  18. hickam air force base

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    hickam air force base - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary Power Energy Conversion Efficiency Solar Energy Wind Energy Water Power Supercritical CO2 Geothermal Natural Gas Safety, Security & Resilience of the Energy Infrastructure Energy Storage Nuclear Power & Engineering Grid Modernization Battery Testing Nuclear Fuel Cycle Defense Waste Management Programs Advanced

  19. Use a DCS-based simulator to proactively manage your fossil DCS retrofit and eliminate unit trips

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Krueger, S.; Greenlee, T.; Wilburs, D.

    1996-10-01

    Several fossil power plants are upgrading their current analog control with a modern distributed control system (DCS). A unit-specific DCS-based simulator for a fossil plant can offer several advantages if acquired early in the upgrade process. Three basic types of DCS-based simulators are discussed below. The experience of the Illinois Power`s (IP) Hennepin Unit 2 is summarized. The Hennepin simulator was developed in parallel with the new DCS-based control system and ready for use three months prior to the actual unit startup. The advantages gained by IP include an opportunity to test/tune the control systems and time to properly train the operations staff. These activities minimized the number of unit trips following the controls retrofit.

  20. (SSS)GAO Metrics - Project Success 2015-04-29 1100.xls

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Second Quarter Overall Root Cause Analysis (RCA)/Corrective Action Plan (CAP) Performance Metrics No. Contract/Project Management Performance Metrics FY 2015 Target FY 2015 Pre- & Post- CAP* Forecast Comment 1 Capital Asset Project Success: Complete 90% of capital asset projects at original scope and within 110% of CD-2 TPC. 90% 100% Pre-CAP 77% Post-CAP Based on 3-year rolling period (FY13 to FY15). TPC is Total Project Cost. No. FY 2015 Target FY 2015 2nd Qtr Actual 2 95% 85% 3 95% 98% 4

  1. FY 2015 Q1 Metrics Supporting Documentation 2015-02-09.xls

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    First Quarter Overall Root Cause Analysis (RCA)/Corrective Action Plan (CAP) Performance Metrics No. Contract/Project Management Performance Metrics FY 2015 Target FY 2015 Pre- & Post- CAP* Forecast Comment 1 Capital Asset Project Success: Complete 90% of capital asset projects at original scope and within 110% of CD-2 TPC. 90% 100% Pre-CAP 77% Post-CAP Based on 3-year rolling period (FY13 to FY15). TPC is Total Project Cost. No. FY 2015 Target FY 2015 1st Qtr Actual 2 95% 83% 3 95% 100% 4

  2. Contract/Project Management

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    First Quarter Overall Contract and Project Management Performance Metrics and Targets 1 Contract/Project Management Primary Performance Metrics FY 2011 Target FY 2011 Actual & Forecast FY 2011 Pre- & Post-CAP Comment 1a. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Pre-RCA/CAP) Projects completed within 110% of CD-2 TPC. 1b. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: (Post-RCA/CAP) 90% Line Item 79% Line Item 71% Pre-CAP 100% Post-CAP This is based on a 3-year rolling average (FY09 to FY11). TPC is Total

  3. Enclosure - FY 2015 Q3 Metrics Report 2015-08-12.xlsx

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Third Quarter Overall Root Cause Analysis (RCA)/Corrective Action Plan (CAP) Performance Metrics No. Contract/Project Management Performance Metrics FY 2015 Target FY 2015 Pre- & Post- CAP* Forecast Comment 1 Capital Asset Project Management Success: Complete 90% of capital asset projects at original scope and within 110% of CD-2 TPC. 90% 100% Pre-CAP 77% Post-CAP Based on 3-year rolling period (FY13 to FY15). TPC is Total Project Cost. No. FY 2015 Target FY 2015 3rd Qtr Actual 2 95% 80% 3

  4. Monthly Financial Results

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    EOY Forecast Actuals: FYTD 1 Gross Sales (excluding bookout adjustment)

  5. Contract/Project Management

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    1 ContractProject Management Primary Performance Metrics FY 2011 Target FY 2011 Actual & Forecast FY 2011 Pre- & Post-CAP Comment 1a. Capital Asset Line Item Projects: ...

  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Annual Energy Outlook [U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)]

    has actually been cold and dry this year, leading to increased use of natural gas for power generation and a forecast for less hydropower supply this summer, according to...

  7. Approved for Public Release; Further Dissemination Unlimited

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    ... Number Title Due Date Actual Date Forecast Date Status Comment M-016-175 Begin sludge ... L. T. Blackford Vice President and Project Manager for Decommissioning, Waste, Fuels, and ...

  8. Temperature-based Instanton Analysis: Identifying Vulnerability in Transmission Networks

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kersulis, Jonas; Hiskens, Ian; Chertkov, Michael; Backhaus, Scott N.; Bienstock, Daniel

    2015-04-08

    A time-coupled instanton method for characterizing transmission network vulnerability to wind generation fluctuation is presented. To extend prior instanton work to multiple-time-step analysis, line constraints are specified in terms of temperature rather than current. An optimization formulation is developed to express the minimum wind forecast deviation such that at least one line is driven to its thermal limit. Results are shown for an IEEE RTS-96 system with several wind-farms.

  9. Base drive circuit

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lange, Arnold C. (Livermore, CA)

    1995-01-01

    An improved base drive circuit (10) having a level shifter (24) for providing bistable input signals to a pair of non-linear delays (30, 32). The non-linear delays (30, 32) provide gate control to a corresponding pair of field effect transistors (100, 106) through a corresponding pair of buffer components (88, 94). The non-linear delays (30, 32) provide delayed turn-on for each of the field effect transistors (100, 106) while an associated pair of transistors (72, 80) shunt the non-linear delays (30, 32) during turn-off of the associated field effect transistor (100, 106).

  10. Base drive circuit

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lange, A.C.

    1995-04-04

    An improved base drive circuit having a level shifter for providing bistable input signals to a pair of non-linear delays. The non-linear delays provide gate control to a corresponding pair of field effect transistors through a corresponding pair of buffer components. The non-linear delays provide delayed turn-on for each of the field effect transistors while an associated pair of transistors shunt the non-linear delays during turn-off of the associated field effect transistor. 2 figures.

  11. Data bases for rapid response to power reactor problems

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maskewitz, B.F.

    1980-01-01

    The urgency of the TMI-2 incident demanded prompt answers to an imperious situation. In responding to these challenging circumstances, both government and industry recognized deficiencies in both availability of essential retrievable data and calculational capabilities designed to respond immediately to actual abnormal events. Each responded by initiating new programs to provide a remedy for the deficiencies and to generally improve all safety measures in the nuclear power industry. Many data bases and information centers offer generic data and other technology resources which are generally useful in support of nuclear safety programs. A few centers can offer rapid access to calculational methods and associated data and more will make an effort to do so. As a beneficial spin-off from the lessons learned from TMI-2, more technical effort and financial resources will be devoted to the prevention of accidents, and to improvement of safety measures in the immediate future and for long term R and D programs by both government and the nuclear power industry.

  12. Review and comparison of web- and disk-based tools for residentialenergy analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mills, Evan

    2002-08-25

    There exist hundreds of building energy software tools, both web- and disk-based. These tools exhibit considerable range in approach and creativity, with some being highly specialized and others able to consider the building as a whole. However, users are faced with a dizzying array of choices and, often, conflicting results. The fragmentation of development and deployment efforts has hampered tool quality and market penetration. The purpose of this review is to provide information for defining the desired characteristics of residential energy tools, and to encourage future tool development that improves on current practice. This project entails (1) creating a framework for describing possible technical and functional characteristics of such tools, (2) mapping existing tools onto this framework, (3) exploring issues of tool accuracy, and (4) identifying ''best practice'' and strategic opportunities for tool design. evaluated 50 web-based residential calculators, 21 of which we regard as ''whole-house'' tools(i.e., covering a range of end uses). Of the whole-house tools, 13 provide open-ended energy calculations, 5 normalize the results to actual costs (a.k.a ''bill-disaggregation tools''), and 3 provide both options. Across the whole-house tools, we found a range of 5 to 58 house-descriptive features (out of 68 identified in our framework) and 2 to 41 analytical and decision-support features (55 possible). We also evaluated 15 disk-based residential calculators, six of which are whole-house tools. Of these tools, 11 provide open-ended calculations, 1 normalizes the results to actual costs, and 3 provide both options. These tools offered ranges of 18 to 58 technical features (70 possible) and 10 to 40 user- and decision-support features (56 possible). The comparison shows that such tools can employ many approaches and levels of detail. Some tools require a relatively small number of well-considered inputs while others ask a myriad of questions and still miss key issues. The value of detail has a lot to do with the type of question(s) being asked by the user (e.g., the availability of dozens of miscellaneous appliances is immaterial for a user attempting to evaluate the potential for space-heating savings by installing a new furnace). More detail does not, according to our evaluation, automatically translate into a ''better'' or ''more accurate'' tool. Efforts to quantify and compare the ''accuracy'' of these tools are difficult at best, and prior tool-comparison studies have not undertaken this in a meaningful way. The ability to evaluate accuracy is inherently limited by the availability of measured data. Furthermore, certain tool outputs can only be measured against ''actual'' values that are themselves calculated (e.g., HVAC sizing), while others are rarely if ever available (e.g., measured energy use or savings for specific measures). Similarly challenging is to understand the sources of inaccuracies. There are many ways in which quantitative errors can occur in tools, ranging from programming errors to problems inherent in a tool's design. Due to hidden assumptions and non-variable ''defaults'', most tools cannot be fully tested across the desirable range of building configurations, operating conditions, weather locations, etc. Many factors conspire to confound performance comparisons among tools. Differences in inputs can range from weather city, to types of HVAC systems, to appliance characteristics, to occupant-driven effects such as thermostat management. Differences in results would thus no doubt emerge from an extensive comparative exercise, but the sources or implications of these differences for the purposes of accuracy evaluation or tool development would remain largely unidentifiable (especially given the paucity of technical documentation available for most tools). For the tools that we tested, the predicted energy bills for a single test building ranged widely (by nearly a factor of three), and far more so at the end-use level. Most tools over-predicted energy bills and all over-predicted consumption. Variability was lower among disk-based tools,but they more significantly over-predicted actual use. The deviations (over-predictions) we observed from actual bills corresponded to up to $1400 per year (approx. 250 percent of the actual bills). For bill-disaggregation tools, wherein the results are forced to equal actual bills, the accuracy issue shifts to whether or not the total is properly attributed to the various end uses and to whether savings calculations are done accurately (a challenge that demands relatively rare end-use data). Here, too, we observed a number of dubious results. Energy savings estimates automatically generated by the web-based tools varied from $46/year (5 percent of predicted use) to $625/year (52 percent of predicted use).

  13. Biosensors Based on Carbon Nanotubes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Yuehe; Yantasee, Wassana; Lu, Fang; Wang, Joseph; Musameh, Mustafa; Tu, Yi; Ren, Zhifeng

    2009-03-24

    This chapter summarizes the recent development of carbon nanotube based electrochemical biosensors work at PNNL.

  14. Biosensors Based on Carbon Nanotubes

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lin, Yuehe; Yantasee, Wassana; Lu, Fang; Wang, Joseph; Musameh, Mustafa; Tu, Yi; Ren, Zhifeng; J. A. Schwarz, C. Contescu, K. Putyera

    2004-04-01

    This invited review article summarizes recent work on biosensor development based on carbon nanotubes

  15. Comparison of strength and load-based methods for testing wind turbine blades

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Musial, W.D.; Clark, M.E.; Egging, N.

    1996-11-01

    The purpose of this paper is to compare two methods of blade test loading and show how they are applied in an actual blade test. Strength and load-based methods were examined to determine the test load for an Atlantic Orient Corporation (AOC) 15/50 wind turbine blade for fatigue and static testing. Fatigue load-based analysis was performed using measured field test loads extrapolated for extreme rare events and scaled to thirty-year spectra. An accelerated constant amplitude fatigue test that gives equivalent damage at critical locations was developed using Miner`s Rule and the material S-N curves. Test load factors were applied to adjust the test loads for uncertainties, and differences between the test and operating environment. Similar analyses were carried, out for the strength-based fatigue test using the strength of the blade and the material properties to determine the load level and number of constant amplitude cycles to failure. Static tests were also developed using load and strength criteria. The resulting test loads were compared and contrasted. The analysis shows that, for the AOC 15/50 blade, the strength-based test loads are higher than any of the static load-based cases considered but were exceeded in the fatigue analysis for a severe hot/wet environment.

  16. MS Based Metabonomics

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Want, Elizabeth J.; Metz, Thomas O.

    2010-03-01

    Metabonomics is the latest and least mature of the systems biology triad, which also includes genomics and proteomics, and has its origins in the early orthomolecular medicine work pioneered by Linus Pauling and Arthur Robinson. It was defined by Nicholson and colleagues in 1999 as the quantitative measurement of perturbations in the metabolite complement of an integrated biological system in response to internal or external stimuli, and is often used today to describe many non-global types of metabolite analyses. Applications of metabonomics are extensive and include toxicology, nutrition, pharmaceutical research and development, physiological monitoring and disease diagnosis. For example, blood samples from millions of neonates are tested routinely by mass spectrometry (MS) as a diagnostic tool for inborn errors of metabolism. The metabonome encompasses a wide range of structurally diverse metabolites; therefore, no single analytical platform will be sufficient. Specialized sample preparation and detection techniques are required, and advances in NMR and MS technologies have led to enhanced metabonome coverage, which in turn demands improved data analysis approaches. The role of MS in metabonomics is still evolving as instrumentation and software becomes more sophisticated and as researchers realize the strengths and limitations of current technology. MS offers a wide dynamic range, high sensitivity, and reproducible, quantitative analysis. These attributes are essential for addressing the challenges of metabonomics, as the range of metabolite concentrations easily exceeds nine orders of magnitude in biofluids, and the diversity of molecular species ranges from simple amino and organic acids to lipids and complex carbohydrates. Additional challenges arise in generating a comprehensive metabolite profile, downstream data processing and analysis, and structural characterization of important metabolites. A typical workflow of MS-based metabonomics is shown in Figure 1. Gas chromatography-(GC)-MS was the most commonly used MS-based method for small molecule analysis in the 1970s and 1980s. It is still used today for the detection of many metabolic disorders and plays a strong role in plant metabonomics. Liquid chromatography (LC)-MS approaches have grown in popularity for metabolite studies, due to simpler sample preparation, reduced analysis times through the introduction of ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (UPLC)-MS and the ability to observe a wider range of metabolites. This chapter will discuss the role of MS in metabonomics, the techniques involved in this exciting area, and the current and future applications of the field. The various bioinformatics tools and multivariate analysis techniques used to maximize information recovery and to aid in the interpretation of the very large data sets typically obtained in metabonomics studies will also be discussed. While there are many different MS-based approaches utilized in metabonomics studies, emphasis will be placed on more established methods.

  17. Base Research Program

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Everett Sondreal; John Hendrikson

    2009-03-31

    In June 2009, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) completed 11 years of research under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Base Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC26-98FT40320 funded through the Office of Fossil Energy (OFE) and administered at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). A wide range of diverse research activities were performed under annual program plans approved by NETL in seven major task areas: (1) resource characterization and waste management, (2) air quality assessment and control, (3) advanced power systems, (4) advanced fuel forms, (5) value-added coproducts, (6) advanced materials, and (7) strategic studies. This report summarizes results of the 67 research subtasks and an additional 50 strategic studies. Selected highlights in the executive summary illustrate the contribution of the research to the energy industry in areas not adequately addressed by the private sector alone. During the period of performance of the agreement, concerns have mounted over the impact of carbon emissions on climate change, and new programs have been initiated by DOE to ensure that fossil fuel resources along with renewable resources can continue to supply the nation's transportation fuel and electric power. The agreement has addressed DOE goals for reductions in CO{sub 2} emissions through efficiency, capture, and sequestration while expanding the supply and use of domestic energy resources for energy security. It has further contributed to goals for near-zero emissions from highly efficient coal-fired power plants; environmental control capabilities for SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, fine respirable particulate (PM{sub 2.5}), and mercury; alternative transportation fuels including liquid synfuels and hydrogen; and synergistic integration of fossil and renewable resources (e.g., wind-, biomass-, and coal-based electrical generation).

  18. Nanowire-based detector

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Berggren, Karl K; Hu, Xiaolong; Masciarelli, Daniele

    2014-06-24

    Systems, articles, and methods are provided related to nanowire-based detectors, which can be used for light detection in, for example, single-photon detectors. In one aspect, a variety of detectors are provided, for example one including an electrically superconductive nanowire or nanowires constructed and arranged to interact with photons to produce a detectable signal. In another aspect, fabrication methods are provided, including techniques to precisely reproduce patterns in subsequently formed layers of material using a relatively small number of fabrication steps. By precisely reproducing patterns in multiple material layers, one can form electrically insulating materials and electrically conductive materials in shapes such that incoming photons are redirected toward a nearby electrically superconductive materials (e.g., electrically superconductive nanowire(s)). For example, one or more resonance structures (e.g., comprising an electrically insulating material), which can trap electromagnetic radiation within its boundaries, can be positioned proximate the nanowire(s). The resonance structure can include, at its boundaries, electrically conductive material positioned proximate the electrically superconductive nanowire such that light that would otherwise be transmitted through the sensor is redirected toward the nanowire(s) and detected. In addition, electrically conductive material can be positioned proximate the electrically superconductive nanowire (e.g. at the aperture of the resonant structure), such that light is directed by scattering from this structure into the nanowire.

  19. Behavior-based Energy Efficiency

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Behavior-based Energy Efficiency in the Pacific Northwest Clark PUD and BPA teamed up for a pilot of an innovative behavior-based energy efficiency program. Clark's pilot design...

  20. Fluorometric Tissue-based Biosensors

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Greenbaum, Elias; Woodward, Charlene; Rodriguez, Jr., Miguel

    2000-11-30

    Experimental program to develop tissue-based biosensors for detection of airborne chemical warfare agents and water quality monitoring.

  1. Prediction of global solar irradiance based on time series analysis: Application to solar thermal power plants energy production planning

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Martin, Luis; Marchante, Ruth; Cony, Marco; Zarzalejo, Luis F.; Polo, Jesus; Navarro, Ana

    2010-10-15

    Due to strong increase of solar power generation, the predictions of incoming solar energy are acquiring more importance. Photovoltaic and solar thermal are the main sources of electricity generation from solar energy. In the case of solar thermal energy plants with storage energy system, its management and operation need reliable predictions of solar irradiance with the same temporal resolution as the temporal capacity of the back-up system. These plants can work like a conventional power plant and compete in the energy stock market avoiding intermittence in electricity production. This work presents a comparisons of statistical models based on time series applied to predict half daily values of global solar irradiance with a temporal horizon of 3 days. Half daily values consist of accumulated hourly global solar irradiance from solar raise to solar noon and from noon until dawn for each day. The dataset of ground solar radiation used belongs to stations of Spanish National Weather Service (AEMet). The models tested are autoregressive, neural networks and fuzzy logic models. Due to the fact that half daily solar irradiance time series is non-stationary, it has been necessary to transform it to two new stationary variables (clearness index and lost component) which are used as input of the predictive models. Improvement in terms of RMSD of the models essayed is compared against the model based on persistence. The validation process shows that all models essayed improve persistence. The best approach to forecast half daily values of solar irradiance is neural network models with lost component as input, except Lerida station where models based on clearness index have less uncertainty because this magnitude has a linear behaviour and it is easier to simulate by models. (author)

  2. Computer-based and web-based radiation safety training

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Owen, C., LLNL

    1998-03-01

    The traditional approach to delivering radiation safety training has been to provide a stand-up lecture of the topic, with the possible aid of video, and to repeat the same material periodically. New approaches to meeting training requirements are needed to address the advent of flexible work hours and telecommuting, and to better accommodate individuals learning at their own pace. Computer- based and web-based radiation safety training can provide this alternative. Computer-based and web- based training is an interactive form of learning that the student controls, resulting in enhanced and focused learning at a time most often chosen by the student.

  3. Concurrent array-based queue

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Heidelberger, Philip; Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard

    2015-01-06

    According to one embodiment, a method for implementing an array-based queue in memory of a memory system that includes a controller includes configuring, in the memory, metadata of the array-based queue. The configuring comprises defining, in metadata, an array start location in the memory for the array-based queue, defining, in the metadata, an array size for the array-based queue, defining, in the metadata, a queue top for the array-based queue and defining, in the metadata, a queue bottom for the array-based queue. The method also includes the controller serving a request for an operation on the queue, the request providing the location in the memory of the metadata of the queue.

  4. Lead-based paint assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lorie, C.; Cowdery, J.W.

    1994-12-31

    In 1977, The US consumer product safety commission banned the use of lead-based paint (LBP) in all industries, except the maritime industry which still has certain privileged uses. Unfortunately for property and building owners, the ban did not come soon enough. In response to this heightened awareness, several environmental market sectors addressing the issues have emerged. These include: residential; soil; commercial; water; and structures. The first and most important step in addressing the concerns posed by the existence of lead based contamination is to quantify the amount of lead-based product, to determine the location of the lead based product and the extent, if any, of lead based contamination, and to make recommendations for the remediation or abatement of the lead product and resultant contamination. In narrowing the focus of these issues, this paper discusses lead-based paint assessment; preparing and organizing the assessment, the regulatory considerations, assessment methodology, and presentation of results.

  5. Cyber-Based Vulnerability Assessments

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Cyber-Based Vulnerability Assessments - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future ...

  6. Radiological Worker Computer Based Training

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2003-02-06

    Argonne National Laboratory has developed an interactive computer based training (CBT) version of the standardized DOE Radiological Worker training program. This CD-ROM based program utilizes graphics, animation, photographs, sound and video to train users in ten topical areas: radiological fundamentals, biological effects, dose limits, ALARA, personnel monitoring, controls and postings, emergency response, contamination controls, high radiation areas, and lessons learned.

  7. Upstream Measurements of Wind Profiles with Doppler Lidar for Improved Wind Energy Integration

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rodney Frehlich

    2012-10-30

    New upstream measurements of wind profiles over the altitude range of wind turbines will be produced using a scanning Doppler lidar. These long range high quality measurements will provide improved wind power forecasts for wind energy integration into the power grid. The main goal of the project is to develop the optimal Doppler lidar operating parameters and data processing algorithms for improved wind energy integration by enhancing the wind power forecasts in the 30 to 60 minute time frame, especially for the large wind power ramps. Currently, there is very little upstream data at large wind farms, especially accurate wind profiles over the full height of the turbine blades. The potential of scanning Doppler lidar will be determined by rigorous computer modeling and evaluation of actual Doppler lidar data from the WindTracer system produced by Lockheed Martin Coherent Technologies, Inc. of Louisville, Colorado. Various data products will be investigated for input into numerical weather prediction models and statistically based nowcasting algorithms. Successful implementation of the proposed research will provide the required information for a full cost benefit analysis of the improved forecasts of wind power for energy integration as well as the added benefit of high quality wind and turbulence information for optimal control of the wind turbines at large wind farms.

  8. Environmental Restoration and Performance-Based Remediation....

    Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Policy Flash Environmental Restoration and Performance-Based Remediation. . . More Documents & Publications Oversight of Performance-based Contracts CRAD, Performance-Based...

  9. Requirements Based Surveillance and Maintenance Review Process...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Based Surveillance and Maintenance Review Process Interview Form Requirements Based Surveillance and Maintenance Review Process Interview Form PDF icon Requirements Based ...

  10. Chip-based droplet sorting

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Beer, Neil Reginald; Lee, Abraham; Hatch, Andrew

    2014-07-01

    A non-contact system for sorting monodisperse water-in-oil emulsion droplets in a microfluidic device based on the droplet's contents and their interaction with an applied electromagnetic field or by identification and sorting.

  11. Pitch based foam with particulate

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Klett, James W. (Knoxville, TN)

    2001-01-01

    A thermally conductive, pitch based foam composite having a particulate content. The particulate alters the mechanical characteristics of the foam without severely degrading the foam thermal conductivity. The composite is formed by mixing the particulate with pitch prior to foaming.

  12. ARM - Measurement - Cloud base height

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    base height ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Measurement : Cloud base height For a given cloud or cloud layer, the lowest level of the atmosphere where cloud properties are detectable. Categories Cloud Properties Instruments The above measurement is considered scientifically relevant for the following instruments. Refer to the datastream (netcdf) file headers of each instrument for a list of all

  13. Surveillance & Maintenance: The Requirements Based Surveillance...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site

    Surveillance & Maintenance: The Requirements Based Surveillance and Maintenance Review Process (RBSM) Surveillance & Maintenance: The Requirements Based Surveillance and ...

  14. Testing and removal of lead based paint, what works and what doesn`t

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Goldstein, L.S.; Kesner, J.; Stoll, R.K.

    1994-12-31

    Lead-based paints (LBP) have become a health and environmental concern and have been the focus of several regulatory agencies including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Until 1978, lead was used as an additive to paint to make it more durable. As a result of this use, lead has become pervasive in the environment and is of special concern in homes. LBP is considered by HUD to be the leading contributor to childhood lead poisoning. This paper will focus on two issues associated with LBP: the advantages and disadvantages associated with sampling methods used to test for LBP and disposal options for the LBP or LBP coated surfaces that are removed. Sampling methods discussed in this paper will include field sampling kits, x-ray fluorescence (XRF), and collection of paint chip samples to be analyzed by a laboratory. Each method has advantages and disadvantages that will be discussed. The discussion presented will be based on actual experience gained while conducting LBP surveys.

  15. Connectivity-based, all-hexahedral mesh generation method and apparatus

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Tautges, T.J.; Mitchell, S.A.; Blacker, T.D.; Murdoch, P.

    1998-06-16

    The present invention is a computer-based method and apparatus for constructing all-hexahedral finite element meshes for finite element analysis. The present invention begins with a three-dimensional geometry and an all-quadrilateral surface mesh, then constructs hexahedral element connectivity from the outer boundary inward, and then resolves invalid connectivity. The result of the present invention is a complete representation of hex mesh connectivity only; actual mesh node locations are determined later. The basic method of the present invention comprises the step of forming hexahedral elements by making crossings of entities referred to as ``whisker chords.`` This step, combined with a seaming operation in space, is shown to be sufficient for meshing simple block problems. Entities that appear when meshing more complex geometries, namely blind chords, merged sheets, and self-intersecting chords, are described. A method for detecting invalid connectivity in space, based on repeated edges, is also described, along with its application to various cases of invalid connectivity introduced and resolved by the method. 79 figs.

  16. Residential-energy-demand modeling and the NIECS data base: an evaluation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cowing, T.G.; Dubin, J.A.; McFadden, D.

    1982-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to evaluate the 1978-1979 National Interim Energy Consumption Survey (NIECS) data base in terms of its usefulness for estimating residential energy demand models based on household appliance choice and utilization decisions. The NIECS contains detailed energy usage information at the household level for 4081 households during the April 1978 to March 1979 period. Among the data included are information on the structural and thermal characteristics of the housing unit, demographic characteristics of the household, fuel usage, appliance characteristics, and actual energy consumption. The survey covers the four primary residential fuels-electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas - and includes detailed information on recent household conservation and retrofit activities. Section II contains brief descriptions of the major components of the NIECS data set. Discussions are included on the sample frame and the imputation procedures used in NIECS. There are also two extensive tables, giving detailed statistical and other information on most of the non-vehicle NIECS variables. Section III contains an assessment of the NIECS data, focusing on four areas: measurement error, sample design, imputation problems, and additional data needed to estimate appliance choice/use models. Section IV summarizes and concludes the report.

  17. Connectivity-based, all-hexahedral mesh generation method and apparatus

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Tautges, Timothy James (Albuquerque, NM); Mitchell, Scott A. (Albuquerque, NM); Blacker, Ted D. (Green Oaks, IL); Murdoch, Peter (Salt Lake City, UT)

    1998-01-01

    The present invention is a computer-based method and apparatus for constructing all-hexahedral finite element meshes for finite element analysis. The present invention begins with a three-dimensional geometry and an all-quadrilateral surface mesh, then constructs hexahedral element connectivity from the outer boundary inward, and then resolves invalid connectivity. The result of the present invention is a complete representation of hex mesh connectivity only; actual mesh node locations are determined later. The basic method of the present invention comprises the step of forming hexahedral elements by making crossings of entities referred to as "whisker chords." This step, combined with a seaming operation in space, is shown to be sufficient for meshing simple block problems. Entities that appear when meshing more complex geometries, namely blind chords, merged sheets, and self-intersecting chords, are described. A method for detecting invalid connectivity in space, based on repeated edges, is also described, along with its application to various cases of invalid connectivity introduced and resolved by the method.

  18. Nellis Air Force Base solar array provides model for renewable projects

    Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]

    A public-private partnership has helped one Air Force base reduce its energy costs and convert to 25 percent renewable energy. Nellis Air Force Base, just north of Las Vegas, took a big step in 2007 when it installed a 14.2-megawatt, 70,000-panel photovoltaic solar array that reduced carbon dioxide emissions by 24,000 tons a year. Built partly on a landfill, the field of solar panels takes advantage of two resources plentiful in Nevada: sunshine and empty land. At its unveiling in December of 2007, the Nellis array was the largest solar panel installation in North America. The project was originally expected to produce about 30,000 megawatt-hours of electricity per year, but Steven Dumont, Air Combat Command Energy Manager, says its actually producing closer to 32,000 megawatt-hours, which is about 8 percent above expectations. Despite this success, Dumont said he nearly didnt pursue the project.

  19. Calculation of variable-base degree-days and degree-nights from monthly average temperatures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sonderegger, R.; Cleary, P.; Dickinson, B.

    1985-01-01

    The Computerized Instrumented Residential Audit (CIRA), a micro-computer building energy analysis program developed at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, uses a monthly variable-base degree-day method to calculate heating and cooling loads. The method's unique feature is its ability to model thermostat setbacks and storage of solar gain. The program accomplishes this by dividing each day into two periods, ''average day'' (8 a.m. to 8 p.m.) and ''average night'' (8 p.m. to 8 a.m.), with different base temperatures. For each mode (heating or cooling) and for each period (day or night), the program reconstructs degree-days as a function of average monthly day or night temperature using three empirical coefficients specific to the location. A comparison is made between degree-days computed from hourly weather tapes and those predicted using this method. The root mean square error between predicted and actual degree days is typically between 3 and 12 degree-days per month. Tables of the coefficients are given for over 150 locations in the United States, computed from hourly dry-bulb temperatures on TRY and TMY tapes. Seasonal predictions of heating and cooling energy budgets using this method show good correspondence to the DOE-2 hourly simulation method.

  20. Coal Reserves Data Base report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jones, R.W.; Glass, G.B.

    1991-12-05

    The Coal Reserves Data Base (CRDB) Program is a cooperative data base development program sponsored by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The objective of the CRDB Program is to involve knowledgeable coal resource authorities from the major coal-bearing regions in EIA's effort to update the Nation's coal reserves data. This report describes one of two prototype studies to update State-level reserve estimates. The CRDB data are intended for use in coal supply analyses and to support analyses of policy and legislative issues. They will be available to both Government and non-Government analysts. The data also will be part of the information used to supply United States energy data for international data bases and for inquiries from private industry and the public. (VC)

  1. cognitive-based-decision-making

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    November 29, 2011 From Cognitive-Based Decision Making To Car-Following Modeling: Beyond an Accident-Free Environment Dr. Samer Hamdar Assistant professor, George Washington University Tuesday, November 29, 2011 - 10am Argonne TRACC Building 222, Room D-233 In the year 2005, the monetary cost of injuries related to traffic accidents reached 625 billion USD (U. S. Dollars) in the U.S.A. only. Based on the National Highway Traffic Safety Agency (NHSTA) studies, 5 accident types of interest can be

  2. Transistor-based interface circuitry

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Taubman, Matthew S. (Richland, WA)

    2004-02-24

    Among the embodiments of the present invention is an apparatus that includes a transistor, a servo device, and a current source. The servo device is operable to provide a common base mode of operation of the transistor by maintaining an approximately constant voltage level at the transistor base. The current source is operable to provide a bias current to the transistor. A first device provides an input signal to an electrical node positioned between the emitter of the transistor and the current source. A second device receives an output signal from the collector of the transistor.

  3. Transistor-based interface circuitry

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Taubman, Matthew S. (Richland, WA)

    2007-02-13

    Among the embodiments of the present invention is an apparatus that includes a transistor, a servo device, and a current source. The servo device is operable to provide a common base mode of operation of the transistor by maintaining an approximately constant voltage level at the transistor base. The current source is operable to provide a bias current to the transistor. A first device provides an input signal to an electrical node positioned between the emitter of the transistor and the current source. A second device receives an output signal from the collector of the transistor.

  4. Graphite-based photovoltaic cells

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lagally, Max (Madison, WI); Liu, Feng (Salt Lake City, UT)

    2010-12-28

    The present invention uses lithographically patterned graphite stacks as the basic building elements of an efficient and economical photovoltaic cell. The basic design of the graphite-based photovoltaic cells includes a plurality of spatially separated graphite stacks, each comprising a plurality of vertically stacked, semiconducting graphene sheets (carbon nanoribbons) bridging electrically conductive contacts.

  5. Ocean thermal energy conversion: Historical highlights, status, and forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dugger, G.L.; Avery, W.H.; Francis, E.J.; Richards, D.

    1983-07-01

    In 1881, d'Arsonval conceived the closed-Rankine-cycle ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) system in which a working fluid is vaporized by heat exchange with cold water drawn from a 700-1200 m depth. In 1930, Claude demonstrated an open-cycle process in Cuba. Surface water was flash-vaporized at 3 kPa to drive a turbine directly (no secondary working fluid) and then was condensed by direct contact with water drawn from a 700-m depth through a 1.6m-diam, 1.75-km-long cold-water pipe (CWP). From a delta T of 14/sup 0/C his undersized turbine generated 22 kW. In 1956 a French team designed a 3.5-MW (net) open-cycle plant for installation off Abidjan on the Ivory Coast of Africa and demonstrated the necessary CWP deployment. The at-sea demonstrations by Mini-OTEC and OTEC-1 and other recent advances in OTEC technology summarized herein represent great progress. All of the types of plants proposed for the DOE's PON program may be worthy of development; certainly work on a grazing plant is needed. Our estimates indicate that the U.S. goals established by Public Law 96-310 leading to 10 GW of OTEC power and energy product equivalents by 1999 are achievable, provided that adequate federal financial incentives are retained to assure the building of the first few plants.

  6. PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Revenue Basis. The FB CRAC Revenue Basis is the total generation revenue (not including LB CRAC) for the loads subject to FB CRAC plus Slice loads, for the year in which the FB...

  7. How regulators should use natural gas price forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Costello, Ken

    2010-08-15

    Natural gas prices are critical to a range of regulatory decisions covering both electric and gas utilities. Natural gas prices are often a crucial variable in electric generation capacity planning and in the benefit-cost relationship for energy-efficiency programs. High natural gas prices can make coal generation the most economical new source, while low prices can make natural gas generation the most economical. (author)

  8. Research Study - Global Enterprise VoIP Equipment Market Forecasts...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  9. Global GPS Phones Market Size, Segmentation, Demand Forecast...

    Open Energy Info (EERE)

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  10. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association QER -...

  11. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  12. Review/Verify Strategic Skills Needs/Forecasts/Future Mission...

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Sector program Execution Plans (1-3 yrs) HR Strategic Plan (1-3 yrs) Current hiring Lists (1-2 yrs) Succession Plans (1-x yrs) UpdateValidate Strategic Staff...

  13. Short-Term Energy Carbon Dioxide Emissions Forecasts August 2009

    Reports and Publications (EIA)

    2009-01-01

    Supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook. Short-term projections for U.S. carbon dioxide emissions of the three fossil fuels: coal, natural gas, and petroleum.

  14. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities: Fiscal year 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-01-01

    This report describes procurement procedures and opportunities for small businesses with the Department of Energy (DOE). It describes both prime and subcontracting opportunities of $100,000 and above which are being set aside for 8(a) and other small business concerns. The report contains sections on: SIC codes; procurement opportunities with headquarters offices; procurement opportunities with field offices; subcontracting opportunities with major contractors; 8(a) contracts expiring in FY 1998; other opportunities to do business with DOE; management and operating contractors--expiration dates; Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization (OSDBU) staff directory; and small business survey. This document will be updated quarterly on the home page.

  15. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggests that global models may underestimate predictions of forest...

  16. Microsoft Word - Argonne_WindPowerForecasting_Report_Final_Nov...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    R.A. Anthes and T.T. Warner, "Development of hydrodynamic models suitable for air pollution and other mesometeorological studies," Monthly Weather Review, vol. 106, pp....

  17. Computers for artificial intelligence a technology assessment and forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, R.K.

    1986-01-01

    This study reviews the development and current state-of-the-art in computers for artificial intelligence, including LISP machines, AI workstations, professional and engineering workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and supercomputers. Major computer systems for AI applications are reviewed. The use of personal computers for expert system development is discussed, and AI software for the IBM PC, Texas Instrument Professional Computer, and Apple MacIntosh is presented. Current research aimed at developing a new computer for artificial intelligence is described, and future technological developments are discussed.

  18. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Working with Us

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Submit a proposal in response to any active solicitation for assisting NREL with a solar radiation research R&D activity Work with NREL researchers through mentored research...

  19. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Optical Metrology Laboratory

    Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)

    Optical Metrology Laboratory Photo of a laser and a spectral irradiance calibration system used to create lamp-detector alignment. Researchers use a spectral irradiance calibration alignment jig and a laser beam to align a calibration source and test unit. The NREL Optical Metrology Laboratory ensures that optical radiation resource measurement equipment is calibrated to national or international standards to ensure the quality and traceability of data. NREL considers optical radiation to range

  20. Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Resource Type: Conference Resource Relation: Conference: IEEE PES General Meeting, Conference & Exposition, July 27-31, 2014, National Harbor, MD Publisher: IEEE, Piscataway, NJ, ...