For 250 years, the use of Bayesian inference methods has consistently been an important tool in estimating probabilities, given knowledge of certain related probabilities. These methods essentially provide a mathematical framework for rationally and coherently propagating uncertainty. The use of Bayesian statistical methods has increased in recent years due to the availability of simulation-based computational tools for implementation and form the basis of a wide variety of predictive modeling systems throughout DOE laboratories. DOE researchers are incorporating Bayesian inference in research areas such as crystallography, medical diagnostic and astronomical imaging, threat detection, groundwater transport modeling, building energy research, climate modeling, systems and soil and seismic research, and intelligence analysis and cyber security. A layman’s overview of Bayesian inference and specific uses and conceptual ramifications of Bayes’ theorem in DOE research endeavors is available in the OSTI Collections - Bayesian Inference by Dr. William Watson, physicist, of OSTI’s staff.
Related Information of Interest
Selected Bayesian Inference Research Documents in DOE Resources