For 250 years, the use of Bayesian inference methods has consistently been an important tool in estimating probabilities, given knowledge of certain related probabilities. These methods essentially provide a mathematical framework for rationally and coherently propagating uncertainty. The use of Bayesian statistical methods has increased in recent years due to the availability of simulation-based computational tools for implementation and form the basis of a wide variety of predictive modeling systems throughout DOE laboratories. DOE researchers are incorporating Bayesian inference in research areas such as crystallography, medical diagnostic and astronomical imaging, threat detection, groundwater transport modeling, building energy research, climate modeling, systems and soil and seismic research, and intelligence analysis and cyber security. A layman’s overview of Bayesian inference and specific uses and conceptual ramifications of Bayes’ theorem in DOE research endeavors is available in the OSTI Collections - Bayesian Inference by Dr. William Watson, physicist, of OSTI’s staff. ** **

**Related Information of Interest**

- ESP Via Mathematics in Uncertainty Quantification – Researchers at PNNL are turning ambiguity into accuracy, DOE Office of Science,
*In Focus* - Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods in Environment, Health and Safety, LANL
- What is Bayesian Inference? LANL Tutorial
- Systems and Intelligence Analysis, Bayesian Inference, Engineering at LLNL
- Bayesian Networks – Decision Support for Complex Systems, Sandia National Laboratory
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (Celebrating 250 Years of Bayes Theorem!)
- Scientific Discovery Through Advanced Computing (SciDAC), DOE Office of Science
- Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR), DOE Office of Science

**Selected Bayesian Inference Research Documents in DOE Resources**

- Sequential Threat Detection for Harbor Defense: An X-ray Physics-Based Bayesian Approach, SciTech Connect
- Bayesian approach to discovery, ScienceCinema
- Bayesian-Inference-Based Recommendation in Online Social Networks, Science Conference Proceedings
- A Bayesian
- Genetic parameters for five traits in Africanized honeybees using Bayesian inference , Science Open Access Journals
- Rejoinder: The Anti-Bayesian Moment and Its Passing, E-Print Network
- Bayesian Estimator of Protein-Protein Association Probabilities, Energy Science & Technology Software Center
- 78 FR 48943 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Endangered Species Act Listing Determination for... , Science.gov
- Bayesian Inference in Model-Based Machine Vision, WorldWideScience