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Summary: Credal Networks for Military Identification
Problems
aIDSIA, Galleria 2, CH-6928 Manno (Lugano), Switzerland
bArmasuisse (W+T), Feuerwerkerstrasse 39, CH-3600 Thun, Switzerland
Alessandro Antonucci a
, Ralph Bršuhlmann b
, Alberto Piatti a,,
Marco Zaffalon a
Abstract
Credal networks are imprecise probabilistic graphical models generalizing Bayesian net-
works to convex sets of probability mass functions. This makes credal networks particu-
larly suited to model expert knowledge under very general conditions, including states of
qualitative and incomplete knowledge. In this paper, we present a credal network for risk
evaluation in case of intrusion of civil aircrafts into a restricted flight area. The different
factors relevant for this evaluation, together with an independence structure over them, are
initially identified. These factors are observed by sensors, whose reliabilities can be af-
fected by variable external factors, and even by the behaviour of the intruder. A model of
these observation processes, and the necessary fusion scheme for the information returned
by the sensors measuring the same factor, are both completely embedded into the structure
of the credal network. A pool of experts, facilitated in their task by specific techniques to
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