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Improved Drought Management Strategies for the Triangle Area Utilizing Climate-Information based Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts (NC Water Resources Research

Summary: Improved Drought Management Strategies for the Triangle Area Utilizing Climate-
Information based Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts (NC Water Resources Research
Principal Investigator: Sankarasubramanian Arumugam
A prognostic approach to improve drought management in the Triangle Area is proposed
here that integrates climate information based seasonal streamflow forecasts with the drought
management plan of two major water supply systems Falls Lake in the Neuse basin and Lake
Jordan in the Cape Fear River basin. Two proactive water conservation measures three levels
of water restriction (voluntary, mandatory and emergency) and waste water reuse that could be
invoked contingent on climate forecasts are considered for reducing the regional water supply
system's vulnerability to prolonged droughts. Invoking these proactive water conservation
measures will also improve the system resilience ability to bounce back from drought which
will ensure improved operation even after droughts. The ongoing project on improving the Falls
Lake Management has shown that invoking different levels of restriction contingent on seasonal
streamflow forecasts tend to ensure increased storages at the end of season. This study will
combine the ongoing project's Falls Lake reservoir model with the proposed Lake Jordan Model
to develop Triangle Area Water Management Model that explicitly considers the water supply
contracts across the basins as well as downstream releases from each system. With the triangle
area's annual population is expected to grow around 2% annually, the capacity of existing


Source: Arumugam, Sankar - Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University


Collections: Environmental Sciences and Ecology; Engineering