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Summary: Modelling Environmental Extremes
Lee Fawcett and Dave Walshaw
School of Mathematics & Statistics
Newcastle University, UK
Short course for the 19th annual conference of
The International Environmetrics Society
Sunday, June 8th 2008
The University of British Columbia Okanagan,
Kelowna, Canada
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1 Classical models and threshold models
1.1 Introduction
Statistical modelling of extreme weather has a very practical motivation: reliability -- anything
we build needs to have a good chance of surviving the weather/environment for the whole of
its working life. This has obvious implications for civil engineers and planners. They need to
know:
· how strong to make buildings;
· how high to build sea walls;
· how tall to build reservoir dams;
· how much fuel to stockpile;
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