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SCENARIO ANALYSIS, DECISION TREES AND SIMULATION FOR COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF CARGO SCREENING PROCESSES
 

Summary: SCENARIO ANALYSIS, DECISION TREES AND SIMULATION FOR COST BENEFIT
ANALYSIS OF CARGO SCREENING PROCESSES
Galina Sherman (a), Peer-Olaf Siebers (b), Uwe Aickelin (c), David Menachof (d)
(a)(d) Business School, Hull University, Hull HU6 7RX, UK
(b)(c) Computer Science, Nottingham University, Nottingham NG8 1BB, UK
(a) G.Sherman@2008.hull.ac.uk, (b, c) pos, uxa@cs.nott.ac.uk, (d) D.Menachof@hull.ac.uk
ABSTRACT
In this paper we present our ideas for conducting a cost
benefit analysis by using three different methods:
scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation. Then
we introduce our case study and examine these methods
in a real world situation. We show how these tools can
be used and what the results are for each of them. Our
aim is to conduct a comparison of these different
probabilistic methods of estimating costs for port
security risk assessment studies. Methodologically, we
are trying to understand the limits of all the tools
mentioned above by focusing on rare events.
Keywords: port security, cargo screening, modelling
and simulation, cost benefit analysis.

  

Source: Aickelin, Uwe - School of Computer Science, University of Nottingham

 

Collections: Computer Technologies and Information Sciences