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Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2011) Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic
 

Summary: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2011)
Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic
eddy-driven jet
T. H. A. Frame,a* M. H. P. Ambaum,b S. L. Grayb and J. Methvenb
a
National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Reading, Reading, UK
bDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
*Correspondence to: T. H. A. Frame, Department of Meteorology, The University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243,
Reading, RG6 6BB, UK. E-mail: t.h.a.frame@reading.ac.uk
The consistency of ensemble forecasts from three global medium-range prediction
systems with the observed transition behaviour of a three-cluster model of the North
Atlantic eddy-driven jet is examined. The three clusters consist of a mid jet cluster
taken to represent an undisturbed jet and south and north jet clusters representing
southward and northward shifts of the jet. The ensemble forecasts span a period
of three extended winters (October­February) from October 2007­February 2010.
The mean probabilities of transitions between the clusters calculated from the
ensemble forecasts are compared with those calculated from a 23-extended-winter
climatology taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
40-Year Re-analysis (ERA40) dataset. No evidence of a drift with increasing lead time
of the ensemble forecast transition probabilities towards values inconsistent with

  

Source: Ambaum, Maarten - Department of Meteorology, University of Reading

 

Collections: Geosciences