Summary: Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 000, 000--000 (0000) Printed 7 October 1996 (MN L a T E X style file v1.3)
Orbital evolution of Comet 1995 O1 HaleBopp
M.E. Bailey 1 , V.V. Emel'yanenko 1;2 , G. Hahn 3 , N.W. Harris 1 , K.A. Hughes 2 ,
K. Muinonen 4 and J.V. Scotti 5
1 Armagh Observatory, College Hill, Armagh, BT61 9DG, U.K.
2 School of Electrical Engineering Electronics and Physics, Liverpool John Moores University, Byrom Street, Liverpool, L3 3AF, U.K.
3 DLR Institut f¨ur Planetenerkundung, Rudower Chaussee 5, D12489 Berlin, Germany.
4 Observatorio, PL 14, T¨ahtitorninm¨aki, FIN00014, Helsingin Yliopisto, SuomiFinland.
5 Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA.
7 October 1996
Results from a series of longterm numerical integrations of orbits centred on that of
C/1995O1 (HaleBopp) are presented. Initially, 33 orbits taken from various sources
were integrated in realistic models of the solar system for various timescales about the
present in the range (\Gamma3; +2)Myr and analyzed to assess the probability of different
dynamical outcomes, such as a sungrazing state or the number of orbits since it was
captured from a longperiod orbit in the Oort cloud. Further integrations were per
formed using an ensemble of 26 orbits more closely clustered about the present orbit
of the comet, based on a more accurate method of orbit determination. We find that
the ensemble halflife for the comet to be captured or ejected is on the order of 0.5 Myr