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Summary: Uncertainty in early warning predictions of engineering ground motion
parameters: What really matters?
Iunio Iervolino,1
Massimiliano Giorgio,2
Carmine Galasso,1
and Gaetano Manfredi1
Received 12 November 2008; revised 7 January 2009; accepted 9 January 2009; published 26 February 2009.
[1] From the engineering perspective, the effectiveness of
earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) depends only
on the possibility of immediately detecting the earthquake
and estimating the expected loss at a location of interest,
in order to undertake actions to manage/mitigate the risk
before the strike. The simplest proxy for the earthquake's
destructive potential is the peak ground acceleration (PGA),
which is predicted through probabilistic seismic hazard
analysis in the framework of EEW. In this paper, the
effects of different sources of uncertainty on the prediction
of PGA are assessed with reference to the ISNet (Irpinia
Seismic Network) EEWS. First the analyses show how the
uncertainty of the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE)
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