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Geographical & Environmental Modelling, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2000, 131161 Critical Levels of SO2 in Northern Czech
 

Summary: Geographical & Environmental Modelling, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2000, 131­161
Critical Levels of SO2 in Northern Czech
Republic--Uncertainty and Relationship to
Regional Forest Decline
JONAS ARDO¨ , ANDREAS BARKMAN & PER ARVIDSSON
ABSTRACT Three methods estimating adverse effects of SO2 on Norway spruce forests
were applied and evaluated on a regional level in northern Czech Republic. The methods,
assuming adverse effects to occur when predetermined thresholds are exceeded, include
the critical level of SO2 concentration (1), the ratio of the SO2 concentration to the
vegetation period (SO2/VP) (2) and a model predicting needle loss from environmental
data and SO2 (3). Comparing the estimated impact with observed regional forest
decline reveals significant relationships for all methods. The influence of data uncer-
tainty, quantified using Monte Carlo simulation, was used to map areas significantly
over or below the critical thresholds. The main results show: (1) that there are strong
linear relationships between accumulated salvage fellings and the SO2 concentrations,
the SO2/VP ratio and a model predicting needle loss in response to elevated SO2
concentrations, (2) there is a clear relationship between damage classes based on
defoliation and SO2 concentration. A critical value of 20 [kg mñ3
yrñ1
] (mean annual

  

Source: Ardö, Jonas - Department of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Lunds Universitet

 

Collections: Environmental Sciences and Ecology; Geosciences