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Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1007/s00285-004-0300-8

Summary: Digital Object Identifier (DOI):
J. Math. Biol. 50, 645­662 (2005)
Mathematical Biology
Paul Joyce · Zaid Abdo · Jos´e M. Ponciano · Leen De Gelder
Larry J. Forney · Eva M. Top
Modeling the impact of periodic bottlenecks,
unidirectional mutation, and observational
error in experimental evolution
Received: 4 September 2004 /
Published online: 20 December 2004 ­ c Springer-Verlag 2004
Abstract. Antibiotic resistant bacteria are a constant threat in the battle against infectious
diseases. One strategy for reducing their effect is to temporarily discontinue the use of cer-
tain antibiotics in the hope that in the absence of the antibiotic the resistant strains will be
replaced by the sensitive strains. An experiment where this strategy is employed in vitro [5]
produces data which showed a slow accumulation of sensitive mutants. Here we propose a
mathematical model and statistical analysis to explain this data.
The stochastic model elucidates the trend and error structure of the data. It provides a
guide for developing future sampling strategies, and provides a framework for long term
predictions of the effects of discontinuing specific antibiotics on the dynamics of resistant


Source: Abdo, Zaid - Departments of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Idaho
Forney, Larry J. - Department of Biological Sciences, University of Idaho


Collections: Biology and Medicine; Environmental Sciences and Ecology; Mathematics