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Summary: T
heUnitedNationsClimateConferencein
Bali in 2007 set the world on a two-year
path to negotiate a successor to the 1997
KyotoProtocol.Yetnoteventhemostrosy-eyed
delegate could fail to recognize that stabilizing
atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations
is an enormous undertaking. Here we address
the magnitude of the technological changes
required to meet that challenge. We argue that
the size of this technology challenge has been
seriously underestimated by the Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
diverting attention from policies that could
directly stimulate technological innovation.
TheIPCCuses`reference'scenariosof future
emissions that assume no policy interventions
directed towards reducing greenhouse-gas
emissions (notably carbon dioxide) to deter-
mine the magnitude of additional emissions
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