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Geophys. J. Int. (2011) doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05081.x GJIGeomagnetism,rockmagnetismandpalaeomagnetism
 

Summary: Geophys. J. Int. (2011) doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05081.x
GJIGeomagnetism,rockmagnetismandpalaeomagnetism
Earth's dynamo limit of predictability controlled by magnetic
dissipation
Florian Lhuillier, Julien Aubert and Gauthier Hulot
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cit´e, Universit´e Paris Diderot, INSU/CNRS (UMR 7154), F-75005 Paris, France.
E-mail: lhuillier@ipgp.fr
Accepted 2011 May 13. Received 2011 March 16; in original form 2010 August 7
S U M M A R Y
To constrain the forecast horizon of geomagnetic data assimilation, it is of interest to quantify
the range of predictability of the geodynamo. Following earlier work in the field of dynamic
meteorology, we investigate the sensitivity of numerical dynamos to various perturbations
applied to the magnetic, velocity and temperature fields. These perturbations result in some
errors, which affect all fields in the same relative way, and grow at the same exponential rate
= -1
e , independent of the type and the amplitude of perturbation. Errors produced by the
limited resolution of numerical dynamos are also shown to produce a similar amplification,
with the same exponential rate. Exploring various possible scaling laws, we demonstrate that
the growth rate is mainly proportional to an advection timescale. To better understand the
mechanism responsible for the error amplification, we next compare these growth rates with

  

Source: Aubert, Julien - Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris

 

Collections: Geosciences