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Hazard Assessment of Debris Flows by Credal Networks A. Antonucci,a
 

Summary: Hazard Assessment of Debris Flows by Credal Networks
A. Antonucci,a
A. Salvettib
and M. Zaffalona
a
Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull'Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA)
Galleria 2, CH-6928 Manno (Lugano), Switzerland
{alessandro,zaffalon}@idsia.ch
b
Istituto Scienze della Terra (IST)
Via Trevano, CH-6952 Canobbio, Switzerland
andrea.salvetti@supsi.ch
Abstract: Debris flows are destructive natural hazards that affect human life, buildings, and infrastructures.
Despite their importance, debris flows are only partially understood, and human expertise still plays a key
role for hazard identification. This paper proposes filling the modelling gap by using credal networks, an
imprecise-probability model. The model uses a directed graph to capture the causal relationships between the
triggering factors of debris flows. Quantitative influences are represented by probability intervals, determined
from historical data, expert knowledge, and theoretical models. Most importantly, the model joins the empirical
and the quantitative modelling levels, in the direction of more credible inferences. The model is evaluated on
real case studies related to dangerous areas of the Ticino Canton, southern Switzerland. The case studies

  

Source: Antonucci, Alessandro - Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull'Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA)
Zaffalon, Marco - Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull' Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA)

 

Collections: Computer Technologies and Information Sciences