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Forecasting Acidification Effects Using a Bayesian Calibration and

Summary: Forecasting Acidification Effects
Using a Bayesian Calibration and
Uncertainty Propagation Approach
T H O R J R N L A R S S E N , * ,
R A G N A R B . H U S E B Y ,
B E R N A R D J . C O S B Y , G U D M U N D H S T , , |
T O R E H G S E N , A N D M A G N E A L D R I N
Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Gaustadalleen 21,
0349 Oslo, Norway, Norwegian Computing Center,
P.O. Box 114 Blindern, 0314 Oslo, Norway, Department of
Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia,
Charlottesville, Virginia 22904-4123
We present a statistical framework for model calibration
and uncertainty estimation for complex deterministic models.
A Bayesian approach is used to combine data from
observations, the deterministic model, and prior parameter
distributions to obtain forecast distributions. A case
study is presented in which the statistical framework is
applied using the hydrogeochemical model (MAGIC) for an
assessment of recovery from acidification of soils and


Source: Aldrin, Magne - Norsk Regnesentral


Collections: Biology and Medicine; Mathematics