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1. INTRODUCTION The past decade has seen increasing interest in

The past decade has seen increasing interest in
ensemble methods for operational numerical weather
prediction. Ensemble forecasting is motivated by the
recognition that numerical predictions always contain
uncertainties, so that it is desirable to use a range of
plausible realizations when performing forecasts. Early
implementations of ensemble methods focused mainly
on uncertainties in the initial conditions. Recent studies
have extended the ensemble approach to account for
uncertainties in the model itself. These studies have
shown the value in using ensembles constructed from
realizations using either different models (e.g., Atger
1999) or different parameterization schemes in a given
model (e.g., Stensrud et al. 1999, 2000).
Here we describe an approach to construct
ensemble simulations that partially account for uncert-
ainties in model formulation, using a workstation version
of the NCEP Eta forecast model. This method con-
structs ensembles by performing simulations using


Source: Arritt, Raymond W. - Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University


Collections: Environmental Sciences and Ecology; Geosciences