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he extent to which the recent global warming has an anthropogenic origin
 

Summary: T
he extent to which the recent global
warming has an anthropogenic origin
(e.g. via the enhanced greenhouse
effect) as opposed to a natural origin (e.g.
through volcanic activity or solar variability) is
of crucial importance to our understanding of
how the Earth's climate has varied in the past
and how it may vary in future. Detailed fits of
global and hemispherical temperatures since
the mid-19th century with empirical models
involving the enhanced greenhouse effect and
solar variability require at least one parameter
linked to solar activity for a satisfactory fit in
the mid-20th century (Kelly and Wigley 1992,
Soon et al. 1996). In general, these fits use vari-
able "stretching factors" to amplify the sensi-
tivity of the models to the parameters in ques-
tion. For example, the simplest form of solar
variability, namely a direct increase in solar

  

Source: Armagh Observatory
Bago, Enric Palle - Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias

 

Collections: Physics