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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. ???, XXXX, DOI:10.1029/, Earthquake Source Characteristics From Dynamic Rupture1
 

Summary: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. ???, XXXX, DOI:10.1029/,
Earthquake Source Characteristics From Dynamic Rupture1
With Constrained Stochastic Fault Stress2
J. Ripperger, J.-P. Ampuero, P.M. Mai, D. Giardini
Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland3
Abstract. One of the challenging tasks in predicting near-source ground motion for fu-4
ture earthquakes is to anticipate the spatio-temporal evolution of the rupture process.5
The final size of an event but also its temporal properties (propagation velocity, slip ve-6
locity) depend on the distribution of shear stress on the fault plane. Though these in-7
cipient stresses are not known for future earthquakes, they might be sufficiently well char-8
acterized in a stochastic sense.9
We examine the evolution of dynamic rupture in numerical models of a fault subjected10
to heterogeneous stress fields with varying statistical properties. By exploring the pa-11
rameter space of the stochastic stress characterization for a large number of random re-12
alizations we relate generalized properties of the resulting events to the stochastic stress13
parameters. The nucleation zone of the simulated earthquake ruptures in general has a14
complex shape, but its average size is found to be independent of the stress field param-15
eterization and is determined only by the material parameters and the friction law. Fur-16
thermore we observe a sharp transition in event size from small to system-wide events,17
governed mainly by the standard deviation of the stress field. A simplified model based18

  

Source: Ampuero, Jean Paul - Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology

 

Collections: Geosciences