Home

About

Advanced Search

Browse by Discipline

Scientific Societies

E-print Alerts

Add E-prints

E-print Network
FAQHELPSITE MAPCONTACT US


  Advanced Search  

 
Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet
 

Summary: Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic
eddy-driven jet
T. H. A. Framea, M. H. P. Ambaumb, S. L. Grayb, J. Methvenb
a
National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB,
UK
b
Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK

Correspondence to: Dept. of Meteorology, The University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB,
UK. Email: t.h.a.frame@reading.ac.uk
The consistency of ensemble forecasts from three global medium-range
prediction systems with the observed transition behaviour of a three cluster
model of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is examined. The three clusters
consist of a Mid jet cluster taken to represent an undisturbed jet, and a South
and North jet cluster representing southward and northward shifts of the
jet. The ensemble forecasts span a period of three extended-winters (October,
November, December, January, February) from October 2007 to February 2010.
The mean probabilities of transitions between the clusters calculated from the
ensemble forecasts are compared to those calculated from a 23-extended-winter

  

Source: Ambaum, Maarten - Department of Meteorology, University of Reading

 

Collections: Geosciences