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740 Seismological Research Letters Volume 80, Number 5 September/October 2009 doi: 10.1785/gssrl.80.5.740 INTRODUCTION
 

Summary: 740 Seismological Research Letters Volume 80, Number 5 September/October 2009 doi: 10.1785/gssrl.80.5.740
INTRODUCTION
e Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach
to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW)
that estimates earthquake magnitude, location, and the distri-
bution of peak ground motion using observed ground motion
amplitudes, prede ned prior information, and appropriate
e application of Bayes's theorem in earthquake early warn-
at any given time is a combination of contributions from prior
information (possibilities include network topology or station
health status, regional hazard maps, earthquake forecasts, the
Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship) and
a likelihood function, which takes into account observations
from the ongoing earthquake. Prior information can be con-
sidered relatively static over the timescale of a given earthquake
rupture. e changes in the source estimates and predicted
peak ground motion distribution, which are updated each sec-
ond, are due to changes in the likelihood function as additional
arrival and amplitude data become available. e potential use
of prior information di erentiates the VS approach from other

  

Source: Allen, Richard M. - Seismological Laboratory, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California at Berkeley

 

Collections: Geosciences