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Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development
 

Summary: Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in
Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development
A. SANKARASUBRAMANIAN
Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University at Raleigh,
Raleigh, North Carolina
UPMANU LALL
Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, New York
SUSAN ESPINUEVA
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon City, Philippines
(Manuscript received 4 October 2006, in final form 27 July 2007)
ABSTRACT
Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources plan-
ning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. In this study,
operational streamflow forecasts are developed for a reservoir system in the Philippines using ECHAM4.5
precipitation forecasts (EPF) obtained using persisted sea surface temperature (SST) scenarios. Diagnostic
analyses on SST conditions show that the tropical SSTs influence the streamflow during extreme years,
whereas the local SSTs (025N, 115130E) account for streamflow variability during normal years.
Given that the EPF, local, and tropical SST conditions are spatially correlated, principal components
regression (PCR) is employed to downscale the GCM-predicted precipitation fields and SST anomalies to
monthly streamflow forecasts and to update them every month within the season using the updated EPF

  

Source: Arumugam, Sankar - Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University

 

Collections: Environmental Sciences and Ecology; Engineering