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Summary: 190 / JOURNAL OF COMPUTING IN CIVIL ENGINEERING / JULY 2000
SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING OF RESERVOIR OPERATIONS FOR
FLOOD MANAGEMENT
By Sajjad Ahmad1
and Slobodan P. Simonovic,2
Member, ASCE
ABSTRACT: There exists a strong need to explore simulation techniques that not only represent complex
dynamic systems in a realistic way but also allow the involvement of end users in model development to increase
their confidence in the modeling process. System dynamics, a feedback-based object-oriented simulation ap-
proach, is presented for modeling reservoir operations. The increased speed of model development, the trust
developed in the model due to user participation, the possibility of group model development, and the effective
communication of model results are main strengths of this approach. The ease of model modification in response
to changes in the system and the ability to perform sensitivity analysis make this approach more attractive
compared with systems analysis techniques for modeling reservoir operations. The proposed approach is applied
to the Shellmouth reservoir on the Assiniboine River in Canada. Operating rules are developed for high flow/
flood years to minimize flooding. Alternative operating rules are explored by changing reservoir storage allo-
cation and reservoir outflows. Impacts on the flood management capacity of the reservoir are investigated by
simulating a gated spillway in addition to an existing unregulated spillway. Sensitivity analysis is performed on
the reservoir levels at the start of the flood season and the outflow from the reservoir.
INTRODUCTION
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