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Summary: Q J Med 2005; 98:5355
doi:10.1093/qjmed/hci003
Commentary
Medical research funding may have over-expanded
and be due for collapse
B.G. CHARLTON and P. ANDRAS
From the University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Summary
The continual and uninterrupted expansion of
medical research funding is generally assumed
to be a permanent feature of modern societies,
but this expectation may turn out to be mistaken.
Sciences tend to go through boom and bust
phases. Twentieth century physics is an example
where huge increases in funding followed an
era of scientific breakthroughs. Speculative over-
expansion led to diminishing returns on investment,
then a collapse in funding. We predict that medicine
will follow the same trajectory. After prolonged
over-funding of the `basic-to-applied' model of
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