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Business Trend Analysis by Simulation Helen Schonenberg, Jingxian Jian, Natalia Sidorova, and Wil van der Aalst
 

Summary: Business Trend Analysis by Simulation
Helen Schonenberg, Jingxian Jian, Natalia Sidorova, and Wil van der Aalst
Eindhoven University of Technology,
Department of Mathematics & Computer Science,
Den Dolech 2, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands
{m.h.schonenberg, n.sidorova, w.m.p.v.d.aalst}@tue.nl
Abstract. Business processes are constantly affected by the environ-
ment in which they execute. The environment can change due to sea-
sonal and financial trends. For organisations it is crucial to understand
their processes and to be able to estimate the effects of these trends on
the processes. Business process simulation is a way to investigate the
performance of a business process and to analyse the process response
to injected trends. However, existing simulation approaches assume a
steady state situation. Until now correlations and dependencies in the
process have not been considered in simulation models, which can lead
to wrong estimations of the performance. In this work we define an adap-
tive simulation model with a history-dependent mechanism that can be
used to propagate changes in the environment through the model. In ad-
dition we focus on the detection of dependencies in the process based on
the executions of the past. We demonstrate the application of adaptive

  

Source: Aalst, W.M.P.van der - Wiskunde en Informatica, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven

 

Collections: Computer Technologies and Information Sciences