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Summary: VEGETATION-INDEX MODELS PREDICT AREAS VULNERABLE TO PURPLE
LOOSESTRIFE (LYTHRUM SALICARIA) INVASION IN KANSAS
ROBERT P. ANDERSON,* A. TOWNSEND PETERSON, AND STEPHEN L. EGBERT
Department of Biology, City College of the City University of New York, New York, NY 10031 (RPA)
Natural History Museum, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045 (ATP)
Department of Geography and Kansas Applied Remote Sensing Program, University of Kansas,
Lawrence, KS 66045 (SLE)
*Correspondent: anderson@sci.ccny.cuny.edu
ABSTRACT--Purple loosestrife (Lythrum salicaria) constitutes an invasive species detrimental to wetland
habitats in North America. To estimate areas vulnerable to it in Kansas, we modeled the potential
geographic distribution of the species by using current records in the state, remotely sensed vegetation-
index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), and the Genetic Algorithm
for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP). Models built using only localities from northeastern Kansas (the origin
of invasion within the state) consistently predicted test localities in other parts of the state with
negligible omission. An additional analysis using records from all counties where the species is known
showed a similar prediction. All models indicated suitable conditions for purple loosestrife in much of
eastern and central Kansas, as well as in riverine and irrigated areas in the western part of the state. The
approach presented here might prove useful for assessing the regional colonization potential of other
newly detected invasive species before other studies can be undertaken.
RESUMEN--Lythrum salicaria constituye una especie invasora perjudicial para los haŽbitats pantanosos en
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