Summary: Bayesian Consensus? University of California Irvine (April 2, 2010) 1
Teddy Seidenfeld Carnegie Mellon University
based on joint work with Jay Kadane and
Bayesian Consensus? University of California Irvine (April 2, 2010) 2
Motivating the need to relax Subjective Expected Utility [SEU] theory in the
direction of Indeterminate Probabilities.
The case of cooperative Bayesian decision making.
Consider two SEU Bayesian decision makers, Dick and Jane, who wish to
form a cooperative partnership that will make decisions, constrained by the
following two principles governing coherence and compromise.
· The partnership, a group of two agents, itself a deciding agent, must
satisfy the theory of Subjective Expected Utility maximization
The Group has a probability and a utility (PG, UG).
The Group maximizes expected utility with respect to this pair.
· (Simple) Pareto coordination if each of Dick and Jane strictly prefers
one option o1 to a second o2, then so too does the partnership.
What are the candidate Bayesian compromises between Dick and Jane that
may serve as the partnership's SEU preferences?