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Summary: Option 1: SG=0% 2: SG=10% 3: SG=20%
SA £60,500,000 £60,000,000 £60,416,667 2
DT £60,497,446 £60,000,000 £60,418,795 2
MCS £60,335,818 £60,058,184 £60,461,341 2
DES 0 £60,797,873 £60,250,740 £60,350,102 2
DES 1 £60,881,284 £60,017,602 £60,406,308 2
DES 2 £60,714,953 £60,166,442 £60,857,915 2
DES 3 £59,817,382 £60,116,618 £61,624,835 1
Total expected costs
Cheapest option
Scenario Analysis, Decision Trees and Simulation for Cargo Screening
Galina Sherman and David Menachof: University of Hull Business School (Logistics Institute)
Peer-Olaf Siebers and Uwe Aickelin: Nottingham University Computer Science (IMA Research Group)
Simulation (using AnyLogic)
·Scenario analysis, decision trees and
simulation are useful for cost benefit
analysis of static systems
·In dynamic environments simulation is
more flexible (e.g. seasonal arrivals rates
and queue restrictions)
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