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River Flood Forecasting Using Complementary Muskingum Rating Equations

Summary: River Flood Forecasting Using Complementary Muskingum
Rating Equations
Parthasarathi Choudhury1
and A. Sankarasubramanian2
Abstract: A model for real-time flood forecasting in river systems with large drainage areas has been developed. Flow variations between
upstream and downstream stations are interlinked and are typically governed by reach properties. Unique paired variations establish useful
flow correspondence resulting in inflow and outflow forecasting models for a reach. The proposed model can generate forecasts with
increased lead time without applying a separate inflow forecasting model and can also provide updated forecasts essential for real-time
applications. The model was applied to flood forecasting in Tar River Basin, N.C., covering a drainage area of 13,921 km2
. The model
aggregates multiple upstream flows to provide long range forecasts for two downstream stations in the basin. Applicability of the model
in estimating complete upstream and downstream hydrographs was demonstrated using a textbook example. Application results indicate
that the new model can provide complete and updatable evolution of hydrographs using the current flow state.
DOI: 10.1061/ ASCE HE.1943-5584.0000046
CE Database subject headings: Streamflow; Water demand; Forecasting; Surface water; Open channel flow; Drainage; North
Channel flooding is a complex dynamic process characterized by
spatial and temporal variation in the flow parameters. Generally,
information on water levels is collected at critical locations, as


Source: Arumugam, Sankar - Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University


Collections: Environmental Sciences and Ecology; Engineering