Summary: Generated using version 3.0 of the official AMS LATEX template
Relation between the 100 hPa heat flux
and stratospheric potential vorticity
Yvonne B. L. Hinssen
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Maarten H. P. Ambaum
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, United Kingdom
Corresponding author address: Yvonne Hinssen Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht,
Utrecht University PO Box 80000, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands.
It is shown that a quantitative relation exists between the stratospheric polarcap potential
vorticity and the 100 hPa eddy heat flux. A difference in potential vorticity between years is
found to be linearly related to the flux difference integrated over time, taking into account
a decrease in relaxation timescale with height in the atmosphere.
This relation (the PV-flux relation) is then applied to the 100 hPa flux difference between
2008/2009 and the climatology (1989-2008), to obtain a prediction of the polarcap potential
vorticity difference between the 2008/2009 winter and the climatology. A prediction of