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Risk Analysis DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01600.x Influenza Infection Risk and Predominate Exposure Route

Summary: Risk Analysis DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01600.x
Influenza Infection Risk and Predominate Exposure Route:
Uncertainty Analysis
Rachael M. Jones1,
and Elodie Adida2
An effective nonpharmaceutical intervention for influenza interrupts an exposure route that
contributes significantly to infection risk. Herein, we use uncertainty analysis (point-interval
method) and Monte Carlo simulation to explore the magnitude of infection risk and pre-
dominant route of exposure. We utilized a previously published mathematical model of a
susceptible person attending a bed-ridden infectious person. Infection risk is sensitive to the
magnitude of virus emission and contact rates. The contribution of droplet spray exposure
to infection risk increases with cough frequency, and decreases with virus concentration in
cough particles. We consider two infectivity scenarios: greater infectivity of virus deposited
in the upper respiratory tract than virus inhaled in respirable aerosols, based on human stud-
ies; and equal infectivity in the two locations, based on studies in guinea pigs. Given that virus
have equal probability of infection throughout the respiratory tract, the mean overall infec-
tion risk is 9.8 10-2
(95th percentile 0.78). However, when virus in the upper respiratory
tract is less infectious than inhaled virus, the overall infection risk is several orders of mag-
nitude lower. In this event, inhalation is a significant exposure route. Contact transmission


Source: Adida, Elodie - Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago


Collections: Engineering