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Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases Vitaly Belik,1,* Theo Geisel,1,2
 

Summary: Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases
Vitaly Belik,1,* Theo Geisel,1,2
and Dirk Brockmann3,4
1
Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Gošttingen, Germany
2
Faculty of Physics, University of Gošttingen, Gošttingen, Germany
3
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA
4
Department of Engineering Sciences and Applied Mathematics, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA
(Received 13 October 2010; revised manuscript received 23 May 2011; published 8 August 2011)
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bidirectional movements
between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis
of generic dynamical features of the model on regular and complex metapopulation network topologies
and show that significant dynamical differences exist to ordinary reaction-diffusion and effective force of
infection models. On a lattice we calculate an expression for the velocity of the propagating epidemic
front and find that, in contrast to the diffusive systems, our model predicts a saturation of the velocity with
an increasing traveling rate. Furthermore, we show that a fully stochastic system exhibits a novel threshold
for the attack ratio of an outbreak that is absent in diffusion and force of infection models. These insights

  

Source: Amaral, Luis A.N. - Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Northwestern University

 

Collections: Physics; Biology and Medicine