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Summary: Making Commitments in the Face of Uncertainty:
How to Pick a Winner Almost Every Time
(Extended Abstract)
Baruch Awerbuch \Lambda Yossi Azar y Amos Fiat z Tom Leighton x
Abstract
In this paper, we formulate and provide optimal solu
tions for a broad class of problems in which a decision
maker is required to select from among numerous com
peting options. The goal of the decisionmaker is to
select the option that will have the best future perfor
mance. This task is made difficult by the constraint
that the decisionmaker has no way to predict the future
performance of any of the options. Somewhat surpris
ingly, we find that the decisionmaker can still (at least
in several important scenarios) pick a winner with high
probability.
Our result has several applications. For example,
consider the problem of scheduling background jobs on
a network of workstations (NOW) when very little is
known about the future speed or availability of each
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