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Noname manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor)

Summary: Noname manuscript No.
(will be inserted by the editor)
Sand dune mobility under climate change in the Kalahari
and Australian Deserts
Yosef Ashkenazy Hezi Yizhaq Haim Tsoar
Received: date / Accepted: date
Abstract Vegetation cover on sand dunes mainly depends on wind power (drift potential--
DP) and precipitation. When this cover decreases below a minimal percentage, dunes
will start moving. It is therefore necessary to study the effects of DP and precipitation
on contemporary dune activity in order to predict likely future dune mobility in the
coming decades. We concentrate on the future activity of currently fixed dune fields
of the Kalahari and the Australian deserts. These sand seas include the largest areas
of stabilized dunes in the world and changes in their mobility have significant eco-
nomic implications. Global maps of DP are introduced, based on real and reanalysis
data. Analysis of two global circulation models (GFDL and CGCM3.1) provide future
predictions under the SRES-A1B IPCC scenario, which is a moderate global warming
scenario. According to the GFDL model, both the Australian and Kalahari basin dunes
will apparently remain stable towards the end of the 21st
century because the DP will
stay small, while the rate of precipitation is expected to remain much above the min-


Source: Ashkenazy, Yossi "Yosef" - Department of Solar Energy and Environmental Physics, Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research,Ben-Gurion University of the Negev


Collections: Physics; Environmental Management and Restoration Technologies