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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY Int. J. Climatol. 31: 337348 (2011)

Int. J. Climatol. 31: 337­348 (2011)
Published online 8 January 2010 in Wiley Online Library
(wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.2070
Variability in the summer season hydrological cycle over
the Atlantic-Europe region 1979­2007
Richard P. Allana* and Igor I. Zveryaevb
a Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, UK
b Sea Atmosphere Interaction And Climate Laboratory, PP Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Moscow, Russia
ABSTRACT: Variability in aspects of the hydrological cycle over the Europe-Atlantic region during the summer season
is analysed for the period 1979­2007, using observational estimates, reanalyses and climate model simulations. Warming
and moistening trends are evident in observations and models although decadal changes in water vapour are not well
represented by reanalyses, including the new European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim
reanalysis. Over the north Atlantic and northern Europe, observed water vapour trends are close to that expected from
the temperature trends and Clausius­Clapeyron equation (7% K-1
), larger than the model simulations. Precipitation over
Europe is dominated by large-scale dynamics with positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation coinciding with drier
conditions over north Europe and wetter conditions over the Mediterranean region. Evaporation trends over Europe are
positive in reanalyses and models, especially for the Mediterranean region (1­3% per decade in reanalyses and climate
models). Over the north Atlantic, declining precipitation combined with increased moisture contributed to an apparent rise


Source: Allan, Richard P. - Department of Meteorology, University of Reading


Collections: Geosciences