Home

About

Advanced Search

Browse by Discipline

Scientific Societies

E-print Alerts

Add E-prints

E-print Network
FAQHELPSITE MAPCONTACT US


  Advanced Search  

 
Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts: Short-term water contracts in a risk management framework
 

Summary: Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts:
Short-term water contracts in a risk management framework
A. Sankarasubramanian,1
Upmanu Lall,2
Francisco Assis Souza Filho,3
and Ashish Sharma4
Received 4 February 2009; revised 29 July 2009; accepted 6 August 2009; published 11 November 2009.
[1] Probabilistic, seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts are becoming increasingly
available as the ability to model climate teleconnections is improving. However, water
managers and practitioners have been slow to adopt such products, citing concerns with
forecast skill. Essentially, a management risk is perceived in ``gambling'' with operations
using a probabilistic forecast, while a system failure upon following existing operating
policies is ``protected'' by the official rules or guidebook. In the presence of a prescribed
system of prior allocation of releases under different storage or water availability
conditions, the manager has little incentive to change. Innovation in allocation and
operation is hence key to improved risk management using such forecasts. A participatory
water allocation process that can effectively use probabilistic forecasts as part of an
adaptive management strategy is introduced here. Users can express their demand for
water through statements that cover the quantity needed at a particular reliability, the
temporal distribution of the ``allocation,'' the associated willingness to pay, and

  

Source: Arumugam, Sankar - Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University

 

Collections: Environmental Sciences and Ecology; Engineering