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Reality and Probability: Introducing a New Type of Probability Calculus

Summary: Reality and Probability: Introducing a New Type
of Probability Calculus
Diederik Aerts
Center Leo Apostel (CLEA) and
Foundations of the Exact Sciences (FUND),
Brussels Free University, Krijgskundestraat 33,
1160 Brussels, Belgium.
We consider a conception of reality that is the following: An object
is `real' if we know that if we would try to test whether this object is
present, this test would give us the answer `yes' with certainty. The
knowledge about this certainty we gather from our overall experience
with the world. If we consider a conception of reality where probability
plays a fundamental role, which we should do if we want to incorporate
the microworld into our reality, it can be shown that standard prob-
ability theory is not well suited to substitute `certainty' by means of
`probability equal to 1'. We analyze the different problems that arise
when one tries to push standard probability to deliver a conception of
reality as the one we advocate. The analysis of these problems lead us


Source: Aerts, Diederik - Leo Apostel Centre, Vrije Universiteit Brussel


Collections: Multidisciplinary Databases and Resources; Physics