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Climate, stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil: societal trends and forecast value
 

Summary: Climate, stream flow prediction and water management
in northeast Brazil: societal trends and forecast value
Kenneth Broad & Alexander Pfaff & Renzo Taddei &
A. Sankarasubramanian & Upmanu Lall &
Franciso de Assis de Souza Filho
Received: 20 May 2005 /Accepted: 14 February 2007
# Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2007
Abstract We assess the potential benefits from innovative forecasts of the stream flows that
replenish reservoirs in the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil. Such forecasts have many potential
applications. In Ceará, they matter for both water-allocation and participatory-governance issues
that echo global debates. Our qualitative analysis, based upon extensive fieldwork with farmers,
agencies, politicians and other key actors in the water sector, stresses that forecast value changes
as a society shifts. In the case of Ceará, current constraints on the use of these forecasts are likely to
be reduced by shifts in water demand, water allocation in the agricultural Jaguaribe Valley,
participatory processes for water allocation between this valley and the capital city of Fortaleza,
and risk perception. Such changes in the water sector can also have major distributional impacts.
Climatic Change
DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9257-0
Broad, Pfaff and Taddei equally share lead authorship.
K. Broad (*)

  

Source: Arumugam, Sankar - Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University

 

Collections: Environmental Sciences and Ecology; Engineering