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ORIGINAL PAPER Local transmission processes and disease-driven

Local transmission processes and disease-driven
host extinctions
Alex Best & Steve Webb & Janis Antonovics & Mike Boots
Received: 13 July 2010 /Accepted: 5 January 2011
# Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011
Abstract Classic infectious disease theory assumes that
transmission depends on either the global density of the
parasite (for directly transmitted diseases) or its global
frequency (for sexually transmitted diseases). One important
implication of this dichotomy is that parasite-driven host
extinction is only predicted under frequency-dependent trans-
mission. However, transmission is fundamentally a local
process between individuals that is determined by their and/or
their vector's behaviour. We examine the implications of local
transmission processes to the likelihood of disease-driven host
extinction. Local density-dependent transmission can lead to
parasite-driven extinction, but extinction is more likely under
local frequency-dependent transmission and much more likely
when there is active local searching behaviour. Density-


Source: Antonovics, Janis - Department of Biology, University of Virginia


Collections: Biology and Medicine