Simulation methods for generation planning of electric-utility systems with intermittent power sources

Description/Abstract

A methodology is developed for evaluating economic and operational impacts of wind power generation in electric-utility applications. Probabilistic methods are employed in predicting utility loads and the power outputs of Wind Turbine Generating Systems (WTGS). Wind-generated power is treated as a negative load with respect to the conventional part of the utility. Modified-load distributions are obtained by convolution integration of wind power and original load distributions. The effects of wind power on the capacity and energy requirements, and on the total costs, of the conventional generating sources are evaluated. The probabilistic modeling and convolution techniques are shown to provide a more-efficient simulation compared to the traditional hour-by-hour approach. The savings in the conventional-generation costs due to WTGS additions are found to be higher in the long-term than in the short-term operation mode. The percentage increase in savings is shown to be proportional to the WTGS penetration level.