World uranium resources. [Use of log-curves in estimation]
- Princeton Univ., NJ
To estimate the total resource availability of uranium, the authors' approach has been to ask whether the distribution of uranium in the earth's crust can be reasonably approximated by a bell-shaped log-normal curve. In addition they have asked whether the uranium deposits actually mined appear to be a portion of the high-grade tail, or ascending slope, of the distribution. This approach preserves what they feel are the two most important guiding principles of Hubbert's work, for petroleum, namely recognizing the geological framework that contains the deposits of interest and examining the industry's historical record of discovering those deposits. Their findings, published recently in the form of a book-length report prepared for the US Department of Energy, suggest that for uranium the crustal-distribution model and the mining-history model can be brought together in a consistent picture. In brief, they conclude that both sets of data can be described by a single log-normal curve, the smoothly ascending slope of which indicates approximately a 300-fold increase in the amount of uranium recoverable for each tenfold decrease in ore grade. This conclusion has important implications for the future availability of uranium. They hasten to add, however, that this is only an approximative argument; no rigorous statistical basis exists for expecting a log-normal distribution. They continue, pointing out the enormously complex range of geochemical behavior of uranium - and its wide variety of different binds of economic deposit. Their case study, supported by US mining records, indicates that the supply of uranium will not be a limiting factor in the development of nuclear power.
- OSTI ID:
- 6665051
- Journal Information:
- Sci. Am.; (United States), Vol. 242:1
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
URANIUM RESERVES
EVALUATION
GLOBAL ASPECTS
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
ENERGY SOURCE DEVELOPMENT
EVALUATED DATA
FORECASTING
GEOLOGICAL SURVEYS
GRAPHS
MAPS
MINERAL RESOURCES
NUCLEAR ENERGY
PRICES
RESOURCES
THEORETICAL DATA
URANIUM ORES
DATA
ENERGY
INFORMATION
NUMERICAL DATA
ORES
RESERVES
SIMULATION
SURVEYS
050100* - Nuclear Fuels- Reserves
Exploration
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290600 - Energy Planning & Policy- Nuclear Energy
290400 - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Resources