Fixed view of resource limits creates undue pessimism
Journal Article
·
· Oil and Gas Journal
OSTI ID:462709
- Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States)
Estimates of declining reserves and production are incurably wrong because they treat as a quantity what is really a dynamic process driven by growing knowledge. To know the limit to oil reserves and output, one must first predict future earth science and technology. This is impossible. Repeated attempts to do it have generated repeated bad estimates. The three primary supply forecasting methods have the same source of error. The paper discusses the bell-shaped curve, field-by-field forecasts, proved reserves, reserves as inventory, returns to drilling, decreasing discoveries, field size curves, reserves types, resources and reserves, and uncertainty vs. speculation.
- OSTI ID:
- 462709
- Journal Information:
- Oil and Gas Journal, Vol. 95, Issue 14; Other Information: PBD: 7 Apr 1997
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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