Bibliographic Citation
| Document | For copies of Journal Articles, please contact the Publisher or your local public or university library and refer to the information in the Resource Relation field. For copies of other documents, please see the Availability, Publisher, Research Organization, Resource Relation and/or Author (affiliation information) fields and/or Document Availability. |
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| Title | Fixed view of resource limits creates undue pessimism |
| Creator/Author | Adelman, M.A. ; Lynch, M.C. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States)] |
| Publication Date | 1997 Apr 07 |
| OSTI Identifier | OSTI ID: 462709 |
| Other Number(s) | Journal ID: OIGJAV; ISSN 0030-1388; TRN: TRN: IM9719%%179 |
| Resource Type | Journal Article |
| Resource Relation | Journal Name: Oil and Gas Journal; Journal Volume: 95; Journal Issue: 14; Other Information: PBD: 7 Apr 1997 |
| Subject | 02 PETROLEUM; PETROLEUM; RESERVES; RESOURCE DEPLETION; FORECASTING; CALCULATION METHODS; ERRORS; RESOURCE ASSESSMENT |
| Description/Abstract | Estimates of declining reserves and production are incurably wrong because they treat as a quantity what is really a dynamic process driven by growing knowledge. To know the limit to oil reserves and output, one must first predict future earth science and technology. This is impossible. Repeated attempts to do it have generated repeated bad estimates. The three primary supply forecasting methods have the same source of error. The paper discusses the bell-shaped curve, field-by-field forecasts, proved reserves, reserves as inventory, returns to drilling, decreasing discoveries, field size curves, reserves types, resources and reserves, and uncertainty vs. speculation. |
| Country of Publication | United States |
| Language | English |
| Format | Medium: X; Size: pp. 56-60 |
| System Entry Date | 2009 Dec 16 |
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