Probabilistic Assessment of the Design and Safety of HSLA-100 Steel Confinement Vessels
This probabilistic approach for assessing the design and safety of the HSLA-100 steel confinement vessel used for a DynEx test involved the probability of failure for several scenarios, in which a fragment may penetrate the vessel. The samples involve vessel thicknesses of 1 inch, 2 inches, and 5.25 inches--the combined thicknesses of the 2 inch containment vessel and the 3.25 inch safety vessel. Two simulation approaches were used for each scenario to assess the probability of failure. The Likelihood of Occurrence method simultaneously models all likely fragment events of a test, for which the net probability of failure is the sum of all the fragment events. The Stochastic Sampling method determines the probability of a fragment perforation on the basis of a logical model and takes the overall probability that an experiment results in failure as the maximum probability for any fragment event. With margin and safety assessments taken into account, it was concluded that the one and two inch thicknesses by themselves are inadequate for containing a DynEx test. The 5.25 inch thickness was determined to be safe by the Likelihood of Occurrence method and nearly adequate by the Stochastic Sampling simulation.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-36
- OSTI ID:
- 810266
- Report Number(s):
- LA-13935; TRN: US200309%%185
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: 3 Mar 2003
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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