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Title Initial Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality in Electric Power System Blackouts
Creator/Author Carreras, B.A. ; Dobson, I. ; Newman, D.E. ; Poole, A.B.
Publication Date2000 Jan 04
OSTI IdentifierOSTI ID: 14056
Report Number(s)ORNL/CP-104875
DOE Contract NumberAC05-96OR22464
Other Number(s)TRN: AH200136%%293
Resource TypeConference
Resource RelationConference: Hawaii Int. Conf. on System Science, Maui, HI (US), 01/04/2000--01/07/2000; Other Information: PBD: 4 Jan 2000
Research OrgOak Ridge National Lab., TN (US)
Sponsoring OrgUSDOE Office of Science (US)
Subject24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION; OUTAGES; POWER SYSTEMS; TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS; LOAD MANAGEMENT
Description/AbstractWe examine correlations in a time series of electric power system blackout sizes using scaled window variance analysis and R/S statistics. The data shows some evidence of long time correlations and has Hurst exponent near 0.7. Large blackouts tend to correlate with further large blackouts after a long time interval. Similar effects are also observed in many other complex systems exhibiting self-organized criticality. We discuss this initial evidence and possible explanations for self-organized criticality in power systems blackouts. Self-organized criticality, if fully confirmed in power systems, would suggest new approaches to understanding and possibly controlling blackouts.
PublisherIEEE Computer Society, Maui, HI
Country of PublicationUnited States
LanguageEnglish
FormatMedium: ED; Size: vp.
Availability OSTI as DE00014056
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System Entry Date2008 Feb 04
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