Initial Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality in Electric Power System Blackouts
Description/Abstract
We examine correlations in a time series of electric power system blackout sizes using scaled window variance analysis and R/S statistics. The data shows some evidence of long time correlations and has Hurst exponent near 0.7. Large blackouts tend to correlate with further large blackouts after a long time interval. Similar effects are also observed in many other complex systems exhibiting self-organized criticality. We discuss this initial evidence and possible explanations for self-organized criticality in power systems blackouts. Self-organized criticality, if fully confirmed in power systems, would suggest new approaches to understanding and possibly controlling blackouts.
| Creator/Author: | Carreras, B.A. ; Dobson, I. ; Newman, D.E. ; Poole, A.B. |
|---|---|
| Publication Date: | 2000 Jan 04 |
| OSTI Identifier: | OSTI ID: 14056 |
| Report Number(s): | ORNL/CP-104875 |
| DOE Contract Number: | AC05-96OR22464 |
| Other Number(s): | TRN: AH200136%%293 |
| Resource Type: | Conference |
| Resource Relation: | Conference: Hawaii Int. Conf. on System Science, Maui, HI (US), 01/04/2000--01/07/2000; Other Information: PBD: 4 Jan 2000 |
| Research Org: | Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (US) |
| Sponsoring Org: | USDOE Office of Science (US) |
| Subject: | 24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION; OUTAGES; POWER SYSTEMS; TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS; LOAD MANAGEMENT |
| Publisher: | IEEE Computer Society, Maui, HI |
| Country of Publication: | United States |
| Language: | English |
| Format: | Size: vp. |
| Availability: | OSTI as DE00014056 To purchase this media from NTIS, click here |
| Update Date: | 2008 Feb 04 |
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