Application of the Event Tree/Fault Tree Modeling Approach to the Evaluation of Proliferation Resistance
As the popularity of nuclear energy increases as a means to counteract dwindling fossil resources and generation of greenhouse gases, the concern over the potential for increased proliferation of nuclear materials also increases. Newly proposed processes and facilities will need to be thoroughly and systematically assessed against the potential for proliferation to support decisions about optimum solutions to competing concerns. Until now, evaluation of proliferation resistance has mostly been performed by experts in relatively informal and unstructured settings. As a result these evaluations have not always been repeatable or even supportable. In 2002 an expert group was formed by The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) to develop an internationally accepted methodology for assessing the proliferation resistance of a nuclear energy system (NES) and its individual elements. (The GIF was established in January 2000 to investigate innovative nuclear energy system concepts for meeting future energy challenges. GIF members include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Euratom, France, Japan, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States, with the OECD-Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency as permanent observers.) A pilot study was performed to test the methodologies being developed. The pilot study consisted of assessing the proliferation resistance of a specific NES example. The proliferation resistance assessments evaluate proliferation in three stages: • Acquisition: Activities carried out to acquire nuclear material in any form, starting with the decision to acquire the material and ending with the availability of the material. • Processing: Activities carried out to convert the nuclear material obtained in the Acquisition stage into material ready for use in a nuclear weapon. Processing may include such activities as irradiation of targets, plutonium separation, uranium enrichment, and conversion of oxides or fluorides to metal. • Fabrication: Activities carried out to manufacture and assemble one or more nuclear explosive devices. The example NES chosen was called the Example Sodium Fast Reactor which was designed to accept spent sodium-bonded, metallic fuel from four advanced fast reactors and to convert it into new fuel assemblies. A number of different approaches were taken to evaluate the diversion of material from the facility to assess their applicability and usefulness. This paper describes a Decision/Event Tree and Fault Tree Analysis approach.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 962035
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-56057; NN4003010; TRN: US0903531
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Safety Engineering, Risk Analysis, and Reliability Methods: international Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, 14:139-148
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
A QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF DIVERSION SCENARIOS FOR A EXAMPLE SODIUM FAST REACTOR USING THE GEN IV PR&PP METHODOLOGY
Application of the Decision Tree Modeling Approach to Evaluation of Proliferation Resistance
Related Subjects
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS
29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
EVALUATION
FAST REACTORS
FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
FUEL ASSEMBLIES
GREENHOUSE GASES
ISOTOPE SEPARATION
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
NUCLEAR ENERGY
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIVES
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
PROLIFERATION
RELIABILITY
RISK ASSESSMENT
SAFETY ENGINEERING
Proliferation resistance
proliferation
PR
fault trees
event trees
safeguards