Nuclear power, coal, and energy conservation, with a note on the costs of a nuclear moratorium
A programming model is used to explore some of the options by which the United States may realistically move away from its present heavy dependence on oil and gas to a more diversified energy economy, based on nuclear power and/or coal. The model incorporates both own- and cross-price elasticities. In this way it allows for price-induced interfuel substitution and price-induced energy conservation. Among the supply options considered are: the direct combustion of coal to generate electricity; the conversion of coal to synthetic fuels; the limited petroleum, natural gas, and shale oil resources; nuclear energy from light water reactors and, later, from fast breeder reactors; hydrogen via electrolysis; and such distant future technical options as central station solar power and fusion (aggregated and described only as ''advanced technology''). Each of these energy sources is discussed in terms of its own costs and the probable date of its commercial introduction. ... Under a plausible set of assumptions (the base case), this report finds that the present value of the benefits from both the fast breeder and coal-based synthetic fuels well exceeds their anticipated research and development costs. In an optimum mix, the combined benefits would be nearly $50 billion (in 1975 dollars) discounted at 10% annually over the 75-year span of our study, and $450 billion at a 5% annual discount rate. Under the same conditions, it is also found that if a nuclear moratorium prohibiting the construction of additional plants throughout the country were to come into effect, the direct cost to the United States economy would be approximately $300 billion at a 10% discount rate and $2500 billion at a 5% rate. (20 references) (auth, abstract modified)
- Research Organization:
- RAND Corp., Santa Monica, Calif. (USA); Electric Power Research Institute, 3412 Hillview Ave., P.O. Box 10412, Palo Alto, CA 94303
- OSTI ID:
- 7345852
- Report Number(s):
- EPRI-SR-34
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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