Prospects and future role of synthetic fuels
Synthetic fuels were largely a subject for R and D until the natural gas supply crisis in 1971. Costs and technical and institutional barriers had not allowed development prior to that time. Now with the recognition of natural gas and oil limitations, synthetic fuels may achieve significant commercial development. A second factor in synthetic fuel development is that OPEC is not going to abandon marketing practices that serve its own interests; as worldwide economic recovery gathers momentum, oil demand will grow again and world oil prices will resume their upward trend. The third reason why synthetic fuels may make it this time is that the expectations for energy conservation are probably overstated. From the end of World War I until the end of the Korean conflict, the ratio of U.S. energy consumption to gross national product (GNP) decreased from about 140,000 Btu per 1958 dollar to 90,000 Btu per 1958 dollar. This improvement in the effectiveness of energy use occurred while the relative cost of energy declined substantially. Thus, in this period energy use became cheaper. Since the early 1950s, the energy consumption-to-GNP ratio has not changed much because of the compensating effects of several key variables. The fourth point in favor or a meaningful synthetic fuels effort is the economic advantage of continuing to meet most residential, commercial, and industrial heat energy requirements with gaseous and liquid fuels rather than with coal- or nuclear-based electricity. The issues that will determine the applicability of synthetic fuels are summarized. (MCW)
- OSTI ID:
- 7340898
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 28. annual meeting of the American Power Conference, Chicago, Illinois, USA, 20 Apr 1976; Related Information: CONF-760469--4
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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