Security implications of alternative Soviet energy policies toward Europe: 1976--1981. Final paper
On the basis of estimates, four alternative Soviet export policies are posited: (1) Eastern Europe does not receive any oil from the Soviet Union; (2) all East European oil needs are satisfied by the USSR; (3) East European oil needs are partially satisfied by the USSR; and (4) consumption is restricted in the Soviet Union and East Europe. These alternatives are then discussed in terms of their economic impact on the bloc and in the light of Soviet political and security interests in Europe. The impact of the alternative Soviet export policies on Western security interests is analyzed against the backdrop of the disruptive effects of the 1973-74 energy crisis on the Western alliance and Western Europe's energy balance for the 1976-81 period. The USSR's potential to exert leverage on the countries of Western Europe via energy exports is evaluated. The broader effects of Soviet energy policies on the comparative cohesion of the Eastern and Western alliance systems are given particular consideration. (GRA)
- Research Organization:
- Institute for Defense Analyses, Arlington, Va. (USA). International and Social Studies Div.
- DOE Contract Number:
- DAHC15-73-C-0200
- OSTI ID:
- 7247338
- Report Number(s):
- AD-A-018371; P-1140
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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